Articles | Volume 15, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model experiment description paper
| 
16 Jun 2022
Model experiment description paper |
| 16 Jun 2022
| 16 Jun 2022
A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector
Malgorzata Golub
Department of Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala University, Uppsala,
Sweden
Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic
Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Rafael Marcé
Resources and Ecosystems Area, Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), Girona, Spain
University of Girona, Girona, Spain
Don Pierson
Department of Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala University, Uppsala,
Sweden
Inne Vanderkelen
Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic
Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Daniel Mercado-Bettin
Resources and Ecosystems Area, Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), Girona, Spain
University of Girona, Girona, Spain
R. Iestyn Woolway
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Luke Grant
Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic
Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Eleanor Jennings
Dundalk Institute of Technology, Centre for Freshwater and
Environmental Studies, Dundalk, Ireland
Benjamin M. Kraemer
Limnological Institute, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany
Jacob Schewe
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the
Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Fang Zhao
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the
Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of
Education), School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University,
Shanghai, China
Katja Frieler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the
Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Matthias Mengel
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the
Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Vasiliy Y. Bogomolov
Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems of the
Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Tomsk, Russia
Tomsk State University, Tomsk, Russia
Obukhov Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of
Science, Moscow, Russia
Damien Bouffard
Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology,
Surface Waters – Research and Management, 6047 Kastanienbaum, Switzerland
Marianne Côté
Department of chemistry, Université Laval, Quebec, Canada
Raoul-Marie Couture
Department of chemistry, Université Laval, Quebec, Canada
Center for Northern Study, G1V 0A6 Quebec, Canada
Andrey V. Debolskiy
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
Obukhov Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of
Science, Moscow, Russia
Bram Droppers
Wageningen University & Research, Water Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Gideon Gal
Kinneret Limnological Laboratory, Israel Oceanographic &
Limnological Research, Migdal, Israel
Mingyang Guo
Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary
Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA
Annette B. G. Janssen
Wageningen University & Research, Water Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Georgiy Kirillin
Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries,
Berlin, Germany
Robert Ladwig
Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison,
Wisconsin, USA
Madeline Magee
Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
Tadhg Moore
Department of Applied Sciences, Dundalk Institute of Technology,
Dundalk, Ireland
Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA
Marjorie Perroud
Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
Sebastiano Piccolroaz
Department of Civil, Environmental and
Mechanical Engineering, University of Trento, Trento, Italy
École Polytechnique Fédérale de Laussane, Physics of
Aquatic Systems Laboratory (APHYS) Margaretha Kamprad Chair, Lausanne,
Switzerland
Love Raaman Vinnaa
Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology,
Surface Waters – Research and Management, 6047 Kastanienbaum, Switzerland
Martin Schmid
Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology,
Surface Waters – Research and Management, 6047 Kastanienbaum, Switzerland
Tom Shatwell
Department of Lake Research, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Magdeburg, Germany
Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries,
Berlin, Germany
Victor M. Stepanenko
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, USA
Bronwyn Woodward
School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
Huaxia Yao
Dorset Environmental Science Centre, Ontario Ministry of
Environment, Conservation and Parks, Dorset, Ontario, Canada
Rita Adrian
Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries,
Berlin, Germany
Institute of Biology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Mathew Allan
Waikato Regional Council, Hamilton, New Zealand
Environmental Research Institute, University of Waikato, Hamilton,
New Zealand
Orlane Anneville
INRAE, Université Savoie Mont-Blanc, UMR CARRTEL, 74203 Thonon-les-Bains CEDEX, France
Lauri Arvola
Lammi Biological Station, University of Helsinki, 16900 Lammi, Finland
Karen Atkins
Tahoe Environmental Research Center, University of California,
Davis, Davis, USA
Leon Boegman
Department of Civil Engineering, Queen's University, Kingston,
Ontario, Canada
Cayelan Carey
Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA
Kyle Christianson
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado,
Boulder, Colorado, USA
Elvira de Eyto
Marine Institute, Furnace, Newport, Co. Mayo, F28X252, Ireland
Curtis DeGasperi
Water and Land Resources Division, King County Department of Natural Resources and Parks, Seattle,
Washington, USA
Maria Grechushnikova
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
Josef Hejzlar
Institute of
Hydrobiology, Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences, České Budějovice, Czech Republic
Klaus Joehnk
CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australia
Ian D. Jones
Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Stirling,
Stirling, UK
Alo Laas
Institute of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Chair of Hydrobiology and Fishery, Estonian University of Life Sciences, Tartu,
Estonia
Eleanor B. Mackay
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lake Ecosystems Group,
Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK
Ivan Mammarella
Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System
Research/Physics, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
Hampus Markensten
Department of Aquatic
Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 750 07 Uppsala, Sweden
Chris McBride
Environmental Research Institute, University of Waikato, Hamilton,
New Zealand
Deniz Özkundakci
Environmental Research Institute, University of Waikato, Hamilton,
New Zealand
Miguel Potes
Instituto de Investigação e Formação
Avançada (IIFA), Universidade de Évora, Instituto de Ciências da Terra – ICT (Polo de Évora), Évora, Portugal
Instituto de Investigação e Formação Avançada
(IIFA), Universidade de Évora, Earth Remote Sensing Laboratory
(EaRSLab), Évora, Portugal
Karsten Rinke
Department of Lake Research, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Magdeburg, Germany
Dale Robertson
U.S. Geological Survey, Upper Midwest Water Science Center, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
James A. Rusak
Dorset Environmental Science Centre, Ontario Ministry of
Environment, Conservation and Parks, Dorset, Ontario, Canada
Rui Salgado
Departamento de Física, Escola de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade de Évora, Instituto de Ciências da Terra,
Évora, Portugal
Leon van der Linden
South Australian Water Corporation, Adelaide, Australia
Piet Verburg
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Hamilton, New Zealand
Danielle Wain
7 Lakes Alliance, Belgrade Lakes, Maine, USA 04901
Nicole K. Ward
Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA
Sabine Wollrab
Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries,
Berlin, Germany
Galina Zdorovennova
Northern water problems Institute Karelian Research Centre of RAS,
Petrozavodsk, Russia
Related authors
No articles found.
Elena Shevnina, Timo Vihma, Miguel Potes, and Tuomas Naakka
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1964, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1964, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
The study first estimated the summertime evaporation over lakes located in coastal Antarctica with direct (eddy-covariance) measurements collected during two austral summers (December–January) in 2017–2018 and 2019–2020. The lake evaporation was on average 1.6 mm d-1 in the ice break-up period, and it doubled in the ice free period. The bulk aerodynamic method with a site-specific transfer coefficient of moisture well reproduced the observed day-to-day variations in evaporation over lakes.
Ana I. Ayala, José L. Hinostroza, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Rafael Marcé, Simon N. Gosling, Donald C. Pierson, and Sebastian Sobek
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3126, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3126, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change affect lakes by including not just the lakes themselves but also the land areas that drain into them. These surrounding areas influence how much water and nutrients flow into lakes which in turn impact water quality. Here, water fluxes from land, derived from a global hydrological model where water fluxes are modelled at the grid scale, were used to estimate streamflow inputs to lakes from their catchments. Using data from 71 Swedish lakes, we showed that our method works well.
Piaopiao Ke, Anna Lintunen, Pasi Kolari, Annalea Lohila, Santeri Tuovinen, Janne Lampilahti, Roseline Thakur, Maija Peltola, Otso Peräkylä, Tuomo Nieminen, Ekaterina Ezhova, Mari Pihlatie, Asta Laasonen, Markku Koskinen, Helena Rautakoski, Laura Heimsch, Tom Kokkonen, Aki Vähä, Ivan Mammarella, Steffen Noe, Jaana Bäck, Veli-Matti Kerminen, and Markku Kulmala
Biogeosciences, 22, 3235–3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3235-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3235-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research explores diverse ecosystems’ roles in climate cooling via the concept of CarbonSink+ potential. We measured CO2 uptake and local aerosol production in forests, farms, peatlands, urban gardens, and coastal areas across Finland and Estonia. The long-term data reveal that, while forests are vital with regard to CarbonSink+ potential, farms and urban gardens also play significant roles. These insights can help optimize management policy of natural resources to mitigate global warming.
Bennett J. McAfee, Aanish Pradhan, Abhilash Neog, Sepideh Fatemi, Robert T. Hensley, Mary E. Lofton, Anuj Karpatne, Cayelan C. Carey, and Paul C. Hanson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 3141–3165, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3141-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3141-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
LakeBeD-US is a dataset of lake water quality data collected by multiple long-term monitoring programs around the United States. This dataset is designed to foster collaboration between lake scientists and computer scientists to improve predictions of water quality. By offering a way for computer models to be tested against real-world lake data, LakeBeD-US offers opportunities for both sciences to grow and to give new insights into the causes of water quality changes.
Inne Vanderkelen, Marie-Estelle Demoury, Sean Swenson, David M. Lawrence, Benjamin D. Stocker, Myke Koopmans, and Édouard L. Davin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2637, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2637, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
Short summary
Soil carbon sequestration supports climate mitigation and may enhance water availability. Using a global land model, we show that increased soil organic carbon improves water retention in the root zone and reduces runoff, particularly in dry, sandy regions. Although hydrological changes are modest, they are systematic and suggest co-benefits for vegetation productivity and ecosystem resilience in water-limited areas.
Lingbo Li, Hong-Yi Li, Guta Abeshu, Jinyun Tang, L. Ruby Leung, Chang Liao, Zeli Tan, Hanqin Tian, Peter Thornton, and Xiaojuan Yang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2713–2733, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2713-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2713-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed new maps that reveal how organic carbon from soil leaches into headwater streams over the contiguous United States. We use advanced artificial intelligence techniques and a massive amount of data, including observations at over 2500 gauges and a wealth of climate and environmental information. The maps are a critical step in understanding and predicting how carbon moves through our environment, hence making them a useful tool for tackling climate challenges.
Marina Amadori, Abolfazl Irani Rahaghi, Damien Bouffard, and Marco Toffolon
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3473–3486, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3473-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3473-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Models simplify reality using assumptions, which can sometimes introduce flaws and affect their accuracy. Properly calibrating model parameters is essential, and although automated tools can speed up this process, they may occasionally produce incorrect values due to inconsistencies in the model. We demonstrate that by carefully applying automated tools, we were able to identify and correct a flaw in a widely used model for lake environments.
Derrick Muheki, Bas Vercruysse, Krishna Kumar Thirukokaranam Chandrasekar, Christophe Verbruggen, Julie M. Birkholz, Koen Hufkens, Hans Verbeeck, Pascal Boeckx, Seppe Lampe, Ed Hawkins, Peter Thorne, Dominique Kankonde Ntumba, Olivier Kapalay Moulasa, and Wim Thiery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3779, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Archives worldwide host vast records of observed weather data crucial for understanding climate variability. However, most of these records are still in paper form, limiting their use. To address this, we developed MeteoSaver, an open-source tool, to transcribe these records to machine-readable format. Applied to ten handwritten temperature sheets, it achieved a median accuracy of 74%. This tool offers a promising solution to preserve records from archives and unlock historical weather insights.
Edna Johanna Molina Bacca, Miodrag Stevanović, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jonathan Cornelis Doelman, Louise Parsons Chini, Jan Volkholz, Katja Frieler, Christopher Paul Oliver Reyer, George Hurtt, Florian Humpenöder, Kristine Karstens, Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Elke Stehfest, and Alexander Popp
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 753–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Land-use change projections are vital for impact studies. This study compares updated land-use model projections, including CO2 fertilization among other upgrades, from the MAgPIE and IMAGE models under three scenarios, highlighting differences, uncertainty hotspots, and harmonization effects. Key findings include reduced bioenergy crop demand projections and differences in grassland area allocation and sizes, with socioeconomic–climate scenarios' largest effect on variance starting in 2030.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, Simon Treu, Christian Otto, Jan Volkholz, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Stefanie Heinicke, Colin Jones, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Ryan Heneghan, Derek P. Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Dánnell Quesada Chacón, Kerry Emanuel, Chia-Ying Lee, Suzana J. Camargo, Jonas Jägermeyr, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Lisa Novak, Inga J. Sauer, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, Michel Bechtold, Robert Reinecke, Inge de Graaf, Jed O. Kaplan, Alexander Koch, and Matthieu Lengaigne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2103, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the experiments and data sets necessary to run historic and future impact projections, and the underlying assumptions of future climate change as defined by the 3rd round of the ISIMIP Project (Inter-sectoral Impactmodel Intercomparison Project, isimip.org). ISIMIP provides a framework for cross-sectorally consistent climate impact simulations to contribute to a comprehensive and consistent picture of the world under different climate-change scenarios.
Asta Laasonen, Alexander Buzacott, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Erik Lundin, Alexander Meire, Mari Pihlatie, and Ivan Mammarella
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2094, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2094, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon monoxide (CO) is an important indirect greenhouse gas, but its terrestrial sinks and sources are poorly understood. We present the first CO flux measurements using the eddy covariance method in an Arctic peatland. Our results show CO fluxes are dominated by two processes: radiation driven emissions and soil uptake. Dry peatland areas acted as CO sinks, while wetter areas were CO sources. Our findings suggest current global models may underestimate Arctic CO emissions.
Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Steven J. De Hertog, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Thomas Raddatz, Hongmei Li, Wim Thiery, Quentin Lejeune, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, David Wårlind, Lars Nieradzik, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 631–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-631-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-631-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Land cover and land management changes (LCLMCs) can alter climate even in intact areas, causing carbon changes in remote areas. This study is the first to assess these effects, finding they substantially alter global carbon dynamics, changing terrestrial stocks by up to dozens of gigatonnes. These results are vital for scientific and policy assessments, given the expected role of LCLMCs in achieving the Paris Agreement's goal to limit global warming below 1.5 °C.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Simon Newland Gosling, Marlo Garnsworthy, Laura Müller, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Atiq Kainan Ahmed, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Julien Boulange, Peter Burek, Jinfeng Chang, He Chen, Lukas Gudmundsson, Manolis Grillakis, Luca Guillaumot, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Rohini Kumar, Guoyong Leng, Junguo Liu, Xingcai Liu, Inga Menke, Vimal Mishra, Yadu Pokhrel, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, Yusuke Satoh, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Mikhail Smilovic, Tobias Stacke, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Wim Thiery, Athanasios Tsilimigkras, Yoshihide Wada, Niko Wanders, and Tokuta Yokohata
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2409–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Global water models contribute to the evaluation of important natural and societal issues but are – as all models – simplified representation of reality. So, there are many ways to calculate the water fluxes and storages. This paper presents a visualization of 16 global water models using a standardized visualization and the pathway towards this common understanding. Next to academic education purposes, we envisage that these diagrams will help researchers, model developers, and data users.
Cristina Deidda, Arpita Khanna, Wolfgang Schade, and Wim Thiery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1697, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1697, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate extremes like floods, heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires are disrupting Europe’s transport. This study combines a review of past events and future projections to assess current losses and the future exposure of transport infrastructure. Exposure to extremes is projected to rise, but lower emissions can reduce it. Urgent action is needed to adapt the Trans-European Transport Network to a changing climate.
Robert Reinecke, Annemarie Bäthge, Ricarda Dietrich, Sebastian Gnann, Simon N. Gosling, Danielle Grogan, Andreas Hartmann, Stefan Kollet, Rohini Kumar, Richard Lammers, Sida Liu, Yan Liu, Nils Moosdorf, Bibi Naz, Sara Nazari, Chibuike Orazulike, Yadu Pokhrel, Jacob Schewe, Mikhail Smilovic, Maryna Strokal, Yoshihide Wada, Shan Zuidema, and Inge de Graaf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1181, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1181, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Here we describe a collaborative effort to improve predictions of how climate change will affect groundwater. The ISIMIP groundwater sector combines multiple global groundwater models to capture a range of possible outcomes and reduce uncertainty. Initial comparisons reveal significant differences between models in key metrics like water table depth and recharge rates, highlighting the need for structured model intercomparisons.
Aki Vähä, Timo Vesala, Sofya Guseva, Anders Lindroth, Andreas Lorke, Sally MacIntyre, and Ivan Mammarella
Biogeosciences, 22, 1651–1671, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1651-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1651-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Boreal rivers are significant sources of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) for the atmosphere, but the controls of these emissions are uncertain. We measured 4 months of CO2 and CH4 exchanges between a regulated boreal river and the atmosphere with eddy covariance. We found statistical relationships between the gas exchange and several environmental variables, the most important of which were dissolved CO2 partial pressure in water, wind speed and water temperature.
Manon Maisonnier, Maoyuan Feng, David Bastviken, Sandra Arndt, Ronny Lauerwald, Aidin Jabbari, Goulven Gildas Laruelle, Murray D. MacKay, Zeli Tan, Wim Thiery, and Pierre Regnier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1306, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1306, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A new process-based modelling framework, FLaMe v1.0 (Fluxes of Lake Methane version 1.0), is developed to simulate methane (CH4) emissions from lakes at large scales. FLaMe couples the dynamics of organic carbon, oxygen and methane in lakes and rests on an innovative, computationally efficient lake clustering approach for the simulation of CH4 emissions across a large number of lakes. The model evaluation suggests that FLaMe captures the sub-annual and spatial variability of CH4 emissions well.
Fenglin Xu, Yong Liu, Guoqing Zhang, Ping Zhao, R. Iestyn Woolway, Yani Zhu, Jianting Ju, Tao Zhou, Xue Wang, and Wenfeng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1187–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1187-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1187-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outbursts have been widely studied, but large-inland-lake outbursts have received less attention. Recently, with the rapid expansion of inland lakes, signs of potential outbursts have increased. However, their processes, causes, and mechanisms are still not well understood. Here, the outburst processes of two inland lakes were investigated using a combination of field surveys, remote sensing mapping, and hydrodynamic modeling. Their causes and mechanisms were also investigated.
José Ángel Callejas-Rodelas, Alexander Knohl, Ivan Mammarella, Timo Vesala, Olli Peltola, and Christian Markwitz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-810, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-810, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The spatial variability of CO2 and water vapour exchanges with the atmosphere was quantified above an agroforestry system, and further compared to a monocropping system, using a total of four eddy covariance stations. The variability of fluxes within the agroforestry was found to be as large as the variability between agroforestry and monocropping, induced by the heterogeneity of the site, which highlights the need for replicated measurements above such ecosystems.
Johannes Feldbauer, Jorrit P. Mesman, Tobias K. Andersen, and Robert Ladwig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1183–1199, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1183-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1183-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Models help to understand natural systems and are used to predict changes based on scenarios (e.g., climate change). To simulate water temperature and deduce impacts on water quality in lakes, 1D lake models are often used. There are several such models that differ regarding their assumptions and mathematical process description. This study examines the performance of four such models on a global dataset of 73 lakes and relates their performance to the model structure and lake characteristics.
Zeli Tan, Donghui Xu, Sourav Taraphdar, Jiangqin Ma, Gautam Bisht, and L. Ruby Leung
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3816, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3816, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Flow depth and velocity determine many river functions, but their high-resolution simulations are expensive. Here, we developed a downscaling approach that can provide fast and accurate estimation of high-resolution river hydrodynamics. The 84-fold acceleration achieved by the method makes reliable flood risk analysis that needs hundreds or thousands of model runs feasible. More importantly, it provides an opportunity to couple large-scale hydrodynamics with local processes in river models.
Detlef van Vuuren, Brian O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Louise Chini, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tomoko Hasegawa, Keywan Riahi, Benjamin Sanderson, Bala Govindasamy, Nico Bauer, Veronika Eyring, Cheikh Fall, Katja Frieler, Matthew Gidden, Laila Gohar, Andrew Jones, Andrew King, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Peter Lawrence, Chris Lennard, Jason Lowe, Camila Mathison, Shahbaz Mehmood, Luciana Prado, Qiang Zhang, Steven Rose, Alexander Ruane, Carl-Friederich Schleussner, Roland Seferian, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Anna Sörensson, Swapna Panickal, Kaoru Tachiiri, Naomi Vaughan, Saritha Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a set of six plausible 21st century emission scenarios, and their multi-century extensions, that will be used by the international community of climate modeling centers to produce the next generation of climate projections. These projections will support climate, impact and mitigation researchers, provide information to practitioners to address future risks from climate change, and contribute to policymakers’ considerations of the trade-offs among various levels of mitigation.
Georgiy B. Kirillin, Tom Shatwell, and Alexander S. Izhitskiy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-113, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The restoration of the North Aral Sea caused remarkable shifts in its temperature, ice cover, and oxygen levels, which have not yet been fully understood so far. We demonstrate that the North Aral Sea has regained conditions similar to its state before drying out, but its seasonal mixing pattern remains unstable. Small changes in water levels or clarity could push the lake toward stable dimictic or polymictic conditions, highlighting its sensitivity to environmental and management factors.
Ekaterina Ezhova, Topi Laanti, Anna Lintunen, Pasi Kolari, Tuomo Nieminen, Ivan Mammarella, Keijo Heljanko, and Markku Kulmala
Biogeosciences, 22, 257–288, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-257-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-257-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning (ML) models are gaining popularity in biogeosciences. They are applied as gap-filling methods and used to upscale carbon fluxes to larger areas. Here we use explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods to elucidate the performance of machine learning models for carbon dioxide fluxes in boreal forests. We show that statistically equal models treat input variables differently. XAI methods can help scientists make informed decisions when applying ML models in their research.
Barry van Jaarsveld, Niko Wanders, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Jannis Hoch, Bram Droppers, Joren Janzing, Rens L. P. H. van Beek, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 29–54, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-29-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-29-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Policy makers use global hydrological models to develop water management strategies and policies. However, it would be better if these models provided information at higher resolution. We present a first-of-its-kind, truly global hyper-resolution model and show that hyper-resolution brings about better estimates of river discharge, and this is especially true for smaller catchments. Our results also suggest that future hyper-resolution models need to include more detailed land cover information.
Jacob A. Nelson, Sophia Walther, Fabian Gans, Basil Kraft, Ulrich Weber, Kimberly Novick, Nina Buchmann, Mirco Migliavacca, Georg Wohlfahrt, Ladislav Šigut, Andreas Ibrom, Dario Papale, Mathias Göckede, Gregory Duveiller, Alexander Knohl, Lukas Hörtnagl, Russell L. Scott, Jiří Dušek, Weijie Zhang, Zayd Mahmoud Hamdi, Markus Reichstein, Sergio Aranda-Barranco, Jonas Ardö, Maarten Op de Beeck, Dave Billesbach, David Bowling, Rosvel Bracho, Christian Brümmer, Gustau Camps-Valls, Shiping Chen, Jamie Rose Cleverly, Ankur Desai, Gang Dong, Tarek S. El-Madany, Eugenie Susanne Euskirchen, Iris Feigenwinter, Marta Galvagno, Giacomo A. Gerosa, Bert Gielen, Ignacio Goded, Sarah Goslee, Christopher Michael Gough, Bernard Heinesch, Kazuhito Ichii, Marcin Antoni Jackowicz-Korczynski, Anne Klosterhalfen, Sara Knox, Hideki Kobayashi, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Mika Korkiakoski, Ivan Mammarella, Mana Gharun, Riccardo Marzuoli, Roser Matamala, Stefan Metzger, Leonardo Montagnani, Giacomo Nicolini, Thomas O'Halloran, Jean-Marc Ourcival, Matthias Peichl, Elise Pendall, Borja Ruiz Reverter, Marilyn Roland, Simone Sabbatini, Torsten Sachs, Marius Schmidt, Christopher R. Schwalm, Ankit Shekhar, Richard Silberstein, Maria Lucia Silveira, Donatella Spano, Torbern Tagesson, Gianluca Tramontana, Carlo Trotta, Fabio Turco, Timo Vesala, Caroline Vincke, Domenico Vitale, Enrique R. Vivoni, Yi Wang, William Woodgate, Enrico A. Yepez, Junhui Zhang, Donatella Zona, and Martin Jung
Biogeosciences, 21, 5079–5115, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The movement of water, carbon, and energy from the Earth's surface to the atmosphere, or flux, is an important process to understand because it impacts our lives. Here, we outline a method called FLUXCOM-X to estimate global water and CO2 fluxes based on direct measurements from sites around the world. We go on to demonstrate how these new estimates of net CO2 uptake/loss, gross CO2 uptake, total water evaporation, and transpiration from plants compare to previous and independent estimates.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Sabin I. Taranu, David M. Lawrence, Yoshihide Wada, Ting Tang, Erik Kluzek, Sam Rabin, Yi Yao, Steven J. De Hertog, Inne Vanderkelen, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7365–7399, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7365-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we improved a climate model by adding the representation of water use sectors such as domestic, industry, and agriculture. This new feature helps us understand how water is used and supplied in various areas. We tested our model from 1971 to 2010 and found that it accurately identifies areas with water scarcity. By modelling the competition between sectors when water availability is limited, the model helps estimate the intensity and extent of individual sectors' water shortages.
Anam M. Khan, Olivia E. Clifton, Jesse O. Bash, Sam Bland, Nathan Booth, Philip Cheung, Lisa Emberson, Johannes Flemming, Erick Fredj, Stefano Galmarini, Laurens Ganzeveld, Orestis Gazetas, Ignacio Goded, Christian Hogrefe, Christopher D. Holmes, Laszlo Horvath, Vincent Huijnen, Qian Li, Paul A. Makar, Ivan Mammarella, Giovanni Manca, J. William Munger, Juan L. Perez-Camanyo, Jonathan Pleim, Limei Ran, Roberto San Jose, Donna Schwede, Sam J. Silva, Ralf Staebler, Shihan Sun, Amos P. K. Tai, Eran Tas, Timo Vesala, Tamas Weidinger, Zhiyong Wu, Leiming Zhang, and Paul C. Stoy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3038, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3038, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation removes tropospheric ozone through stomatal uptake, and accurately modeling the stomatal uptake of ozone is important for modeling dry deposition and air quality. We evaluated the stomatal component of ozone dry deposition modeled by atmospheric chemistry models at six sites. We find that models and observation-based estimates agree at times during the growing season at all sites, but some models overestimated the stomatal component during the dry summers at a seasonally dry site.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Donghui Xu, Chang Liao, Gautam Bisht, James J. Benedict, Tian Zhou, Mithun Deb, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how riverine and coastal flooding during hurricanes is influenced by the interaction of atmosphere, land, river and ocean conditions. Using an advanced Earth system model, we simulate Hurricane Irene to evaluate how meteorological and hydrological uncertainties affect flood modeling. Our findings reveal the importance of a multi-component modeling system, how hydrological conditions play critical roles in flood modeling, and greater flood risks if multiple factors are present.
Kim A. P. Faassen, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, Raquel González-Armas, Bert G. Heusinkveld, Ivan Mammarella, Wouter Peters, and Ingrid T. Luijkx
Biogeosciences, 21, 3015–3039, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3015-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3015-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ratio between atmospheric O2 and CO2 can be used to characterize the carbon balance at the surface. By combining a model and observations from the Hyytiälä forest (Finland), we show that using atmospheric O2 and CO2 measurements from a single height provides a weak constraint on the surface CO2 exchange because large-scale processes such as entrainment confound this signal. We therefore recommend always using multiple heights of O2 and CO2 measurements to study surface CO2 exchange.
Ashkan Pilbala, Nicoletta Riccardi, Nina Benistati, Vanessa Modesto, Donatella Termini, Dario Manca, Augusto Benigni, Cristiano Corradini, Tommaso Lazzarin, Tommaso Moramarco, Luigi Fraccarollo, and Sebastiano Piccolroaz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2297–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2297-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2297-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the impact of floods on the aquatic ecosystem using freshwater mussels instrumented with sensors to monitor the opening of their valves. Signal analysis techniques were used to gain insight into their responses in terms of changes in the intensity and frequency of valve opening. The approach used in the study enables the development of real-time monitoring systems for ecological purposes and provides a pathway for practical biological early-warning systems.
Chengcheng Hou, Yan Li, Shan Sang, Xu Zhao, Yanxu Liu, Yinglu Liu, and Fang Zhao
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2449–2464, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2449-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To fill the gap in the gridded industrial water withdrawal (IWW) data in China, we developed the China Industrial Water Withdrawal (CIWW) dataset, which provides monthly IWWs from 1965 to 2020 at a spatial resolution of 0.1°/0.25° and auxiliary data including subsectoral IWW and industrial output value in 2008. This dataset can help understand the human water use dynamics and support studies in hydrology, geography, sustainability sciences, and water resource management and allocation in China.
Derrick Muheki, Axel A. J. Deijns, Emanuele Bevacqua, Gabriele Messori, Jakob Zscheischler, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 429–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change affects the interaction, dependence, and joint occurrence of climate extremes. Here we investigate the joint occurrence of pairs of river floods, droughts, heatwaves, crop failures, wildfires, and tropical cyclones in East Africa under past and future climate conditions. Our results show that, across all future warming scenarios, the frequency and spatial extent of these co-occurring extremes will increase in this region, particularly in areas close to the Nile and Congo rivers.
Jorrit P. Mesman, Inmaculada C. Jiménez-Navarro, Ana I. Ayala, Javier Senent-Aparicio, Dennis Trolle, and Don C. Pierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1791–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Spring events in lakes are key processes for ecosystem functioning. We used a coupled catchment–lake model to investigate future changes in the timing of spring discharge, ice-off, spring phytoplankton peak, and onset of stratification in a mesotrophic lake. We found a clear trend towards earlier occurrence under climate warming but also that relative shifts in the timing occurred, such as onset of stratification advancing more slowly than the other events.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 265–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in land use are crucial to achieve lower global warming. However, despite their importance, the effects of these changes on moisture fluxes are poorly understood. We analyse land cover and management scenarios in three climate models involving cropland expansion, afforestation, and irrigation. Results show largely consistent influences on moisture fluxes, with cropland expansion causing a drying and reduced local moisture recycling, while afforestation and irrigation show the opposite.
Rosa Pietroiusti, Inne Vanderkelen, Friederike E. L. Otto, Clair Barnes, Lucy Temple, Mary Akurut, Philippe Bally, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 225–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy rainfall in eastern Africa between late 2019 and mid 2020 caused devastating floods and landslides and drove the levels of Lake Victoria to a record-breaking maximum in May 2020. In this study, we characterize the spatial extent and impacts of the floods in the Lake Victoria basin and investigate how human-induced climate change influenced the probability and intensity of the record-breaking lake levels and flooding by applying a multi-model extreme event attribution methodology.
Simon Treu, Sanne Muis, Sönke Dangendorf, Thomas Wahl, Julius Oelsmann, Stefanie Heinicke, Katja Frieler, and Matthias Mengel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1121–1136, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1121-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article describes a reconstruction of monthly coastal water levels from 1900–2015 and hourly data from 1979–2015, both with and without long-term sea level rise. The dataset is based on a combination of three datasets that are focused on different aspects of coastal water levels. Comparison with tide gauge records shows that this combination brings reconstructions closer to the observations compared to the individual datasets.
Donghui Xu, Gautam Bisht, Zeli Tan, Chang Liao, Tian Zhou, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1197–1215, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1197-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1197-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We aim to disentangle the hydrological and hydraulic controls on streamflow variability in a fully coupled earth system model. We found that calibrating only one process (i.e., traditional calibration procedure) will result in unrealistic parameter values and poor performance of the water cycle, while the simulated streamflow is improved. To address this issue, we further proposed a two-step calibration procedure to reconcile the impacts from hydrological and hydraulic processes on streamflow.
Celray James Chawanda, Albert Nkwasa, Wim Thiery, and Ann van Griensven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 117–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Africa's water resources are being negatively impacted by climate change and land-use change. The SWAT+ hydrological model was used to simulate the hydrological cycle in Africa, and results show likely decreases in river flows in the Zambezi and Congo rivers and highest flows in the Niger River basins due to climate change. Land cover change had the biggest impact in the Congo River basin, emphasizing the importance of including land-use change in studies.
Katja Frieler, Jan Volkholz, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, María del Rocío Rivas López, Christian Otto, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Johanna T. Malle, Simon Treu, Christoph Menz, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Yannick Rousseau, Reg A. Watson, Charles Stock, Xiao Liu, Ryan Heneghan, Derek Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Tingting Wang, Fubao Sun, Inga J. Sauer, Johannes Koch, Inne Vanderkelen, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Jida Wang, Fangfang Yao, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, and Michel Bechtold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper provides an overview of all observational climate-related and socioeconomic forcing data used as input for the impact model evaluation and impact attribution experiments within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The experiments are designed to test our understanding of observed changes in natural and human systems and to quantify to what degree these changes have already been induced by climate change.
Austin Delany, Robert Ladwig, Cal Buelo, Ellen Albright, and Paul C. Hanson
Biogeosciences, 20, 5211–5228, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5211-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5211-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Internal and external sources of organic carbon (OC) in lakes can contribute to oxygen depletion, but their relative contributions remain in question. To study this, we built a two-layer model to recreate processes relevant to carbon for six Wisconsin lakes. We found that internal OC was more important than external OC in depleting oxygen. This shows that it is important to consider both the fast-paced cycling of internally produced OC and the slower cycling of external OC when studying lakes.
Benedikt Mester, Thomas Vogt, Seth Bryant, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3467–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2019, Cyclone Idai displaced more than 478 000 people in Mozambique. In our study, we use coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery to construct a counterfactual cyclone event without the effects of climate change. We show that 12 600–14 900 displacements can be attributed to sea level rise and the intensification of storm wind speeds due to global warming. Our impact attribution study is the first one on human displacement and one of very few for a low-income country.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Donghui Xu, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3911–3934, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3911-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the flood risks concurrently induced by river flooding and coastal storm surge along the coast of the contiguous United States using statistical and numerical models. We reveal a few hotspots of such risks, the critical spatial variabilities within a river basin and over the whole US coast, and the uncertainties of the risk assessment. We highlight the importance of weighing different risk measures to avoid underestimating or exaggerating the compound flood impacts.
Olivia E. Clifton, Donna Schwede, Christian Hogrefe, Jesse O. Bash, Sam Bland, Philip Cheung, Mhairi Coyle, Lisa Emberson, Johannes Flemming, Erick Fredj, Stefano Galmarini, Laurens Ganzeveld, Orestis Gazetas, Ignacio Goded, Christopher D. Holmes, László Horváth, Vincent Huijnen, Qian Li, Paul A. Makar, Ivan Mammarella, Giovanni Manca, J. William Munger, Juan L. Pérez-Camanyo, Jonathan Pleim, Limei Ran, Roberto San Jose, Sam J. Silva, Ralf Staebler, Shihan Sun, Amos P. K. Tai, Eran Tas, Timo Vesala, Tamás Weidinger, Zhiyong Wu, and Leiming Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9911–9961, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9911-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A primary sink of air pollutants is dry deposition. Dry deposition estimates differ across the models used to simulate atmospheric chemistry. Here, we introduce an effort to examine dry deposition schemes from atmospheric chemistry models. We provide our approach’s rationale, document the schemes, and describe datasets used to drive and evaluate the schemes. We also launch the analysis of results by evaluating against observations and identifying the processes leading to model–model differences.
Alessandro Zanchetta, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Steven van Heuven, Andrea Scifo, Hubertus A. Scheeren, Ivan Mammarella, Ute Karstens, Jin Ma, Maarten Krol, and Huilin Chen
Biogeosciences, 20, 3539–3553, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3539-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3539-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Carbonyl sulfide (COS) has been suggested as a tool to estimate carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake by plants during photosynthesis. However, understanding its sources and sinks is critical to preventing biases in this estimate. Combining observations and models, this study proves that regional sources occasionally influence the measurements at the 60 m tall Lutjewad tower (1 m a.s.l.; 53°24′ N, 6°21′ E) in the Netherlands. Moreover, it estimates nighttime COS fluxes to be −3.0 ± 2.6 pmol m−2 s−1.
Shruti Nath, Lukas Gudmundsson, Jonas Schwaab, Gregory Duveiller, Steven J. De Hertog, Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Carl F. Schleussner, Wim Thiery, and Quentin Lejeune
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4283–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tree cover changes play a significant role in climate mitigation and adaptation. Their regional impacts are key in informing national-level decisions and prioritising areas for conservation efforts. We present a first step towards exploring these regional impacts using a simple statistical device, i.e. emulator. The emulator only needs to train on climate model outputs representing the maximal impacts of aff-, re-, and deforestation, from which it explores plausible in-between outcomes itself.
Zoé Rehder, Thomas Kleinen, Lars Kutzbach, Victor Stepanenko, Moritz Langer, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 20, 2837–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use a new model to investigate how methane emissions from Arctic ponds change with warming. We find that emissions increase substantially. Under annual temperatures 5 °C above present temperatures, pond methane emissions are more than 3 times higher than now. Most of this increase is caused by an increase in plant productivity as plants provide the substrate microbes used to produce methane. We conclude that vegetation changes need to be included in predictions of pond methane emissions.
Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Stefan Lange, Chantal Hari, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Olaf Conrad, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, and Katja Frieler
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2445–2464, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first 1 km, daily, global climate dataset for climate impact studies. We show that the high-resolution data have a decreased bias and higher correlation with measurements from meteorological stations than coarser data. The dataset will be of value for a wide range of climate change impact studies both at global and regional level that benefit from using a consistent global dataset.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 629–667, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occur and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Land cover and management changes can affect the climate and water availability. In this study we use climate model simulations of extreme global land cover changes (afforestation, deforestation) and land management changes (irrigation) to understand the effects on the global water cycle and local to continental water availability. We show that cropland expansion generally leads to higher evaporation and lower amounts of precipitation and afforestation and irrigation expansion to the opposite.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Almudena García-García, Gerhard Krinner, Moritz Langer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Jan Nitzbon, Jian Peng, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Wim Thiery, Inne Vanderkelen, and Tonghua Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 609–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is caused by the accumulated heat in the Earth system, with the land storing the second largest amount of this extra heat. Here, new estimates of continental heat storage are obtained, including changes in inland-water heat storage and permafrost heat storage in addition to changes in ground heat storage. We also argue that heat gains in all three components should be monitored independently of their magnitude due to heat-dependent processes affecting society and ecosystems.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Martine Lizotte, Bennet Juhls, Atsushi Matsuoka, Philippe Massicotte, Gaëlle Mével, David Obie James Anikina, Sofia Antonova, Guislain Bécu, Marine Béguin, Simon Bélanger, Thomas Bossé-Demers, Lisa Bröder, Flavienne Bruyant, Gwénaëlle Chaillou, Jérôme Comte, Raoul-Marie Couture, Emmanuel Devred, Gabrièle Deslongchamps, Thibaud Dezutter, Miles Dillon, David Doxaran, Aude Flamand, Frank Fell, Joannie Ferland, Marie-Hélène Forget, Michael Fritz, Thomas J. Gordon, Caroline Guilmette, Andrea Hilborn, Rachel Hussherr, Charlotte Irish, Fabien Joux, Lauren Kipp, Audrey Laberge-Carignan, Hugues Lantuit, Edouard Leymarie, Antonio Mannino, Juliette Maury, Paul Overduin, Laurent Oziel, Colin Stedmon, Crystal Thomas, Lucas Tisserand, Jean-Éric Tremblay, Jorien Vonk, Dustin Whalen, and Marcel Babin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1617–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1617-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Permafrost thaw in the Mackenzie Delta region results in the release of organic matter into the coastal marine environment. What happens to this carbon-rich organic matter as it transits along the fresh to salty aquatic environments is still underdocumented. Four expeditions were conducted from April to September 2019 in the coastal area of the Beaufort Sea to study the fate of organic matter. This paper describes a rich set of data characterizing the composition and sources of organic matter.
François Clayer, Leah Jackson-Blake, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Muhammed Shikhani, Andrew French, Tadhg Moore, James Sample, Magnus Norling, Maria-Dolores Frias, Sixto Herrera, Elvira de Eyto, Eleanor Jennings, Karsten Rinke, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1361–1381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We assessed the predictive skill of forecasting tools over the next season for water discharge and lake temperature. Tools were forced with seasonal weather predictions; however, most of the prediction skill originates from legacy effects and not from seasonal weather predictions. Yet, when skills from seasonal weather predictions are present, additional skill comes from interaction effects. Skilful lake seasonal predictions require better weather predictions and realistic antecedent conditions.
Matti Kämäräinen, Juha-Pekka Tuovinen, Markku Kulmala, Ivan Mammarella, Juha Aalto, Henriikka Vekuri, Annalea Lohila, and Anna Lintunen
Biogeosciences, 20, 897–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-897-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-897-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we introduce a new method for modeling the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere and a study site located in a boreal forest in southern Finland. Our method yields more accurate results than previous approaches in this context. Accurately estimating carbon exchange is crucial for gaining a better understanding of the role of forests in regulating atmospheric carbon and addressing climate change.
Olivia Desgué-Itier, Laura Melo Vieira Soares, Orlane Anneville, Damien Bouffard, Vincent Chanudet, Pierre Alain Danis, Isabelle Domaizon, Jean Guillard, Théo Mazure, Najwa Sharaf, Frédéric Soulignac, Viet Tran-Khac, Brigitte Vinçon-Leite, and Jean-Philippe Jenny
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 837–859, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-837-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-837-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The long-term effects of climate change will include an increase in lake surface and deep water temperatures. Incorporating up to 6 decades of limnological monitoring into an improved 1D lake model approach allows us to predict the thermal regime and oxygen solubility in four peri-alpine lakes over the period 1850–2100. Our modeling approach includes a revised selection of forcing variables and provides a way to investigate the impacts of climate variations on lakes for centennial timescales.
Kim A. P. Faassen, Linh N. T. Nguyen, Eadin R. Broekema, Bert A. M. Kers, Ivan Mammarella, Timo Vesala, Penelope A. Pickers, Andrew C. Manning, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, Harro A. J. Meijer, Wouter Peters, and Ingrid T. Luijkx
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 851–876, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-851-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-851-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The exchange ratio (ER) between atmospheric O2 and CO2 provides a useful tracer for separately estimating photosynthesis and respiration processes in the forest carbon balance. This is highly relevant to better understand the expected biosphere sink, which determines future atmospheric CO2 levels. We therefore measured O2, CO2, and their ER above a boreal forest in Finland and investigated their diurnal behaviour for a representative day, and we show the most suitable way to determine the ER.
Shuqi Lin, Donald C. Pierson, and Jorrit P. Mesman
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 35–46, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-35-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-35-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The risks brought by the proliferation of algal blooms motivate the improvement of bloom forecasting tools, but algal blooms are complexly controlled and difficult to predict. Given rapid growth of monitoring data and advances in computation, machine learning offers an alternative prediction methodology. This study tested various machine learning workflows in a dimictic mesotrophic lake and gave promising predictions of the seasonal variations and the timing of algal blooms.
Marlene Dordoni, Michael Seewald, Karsten Rinke, Kurt Friese, Robert van Geldern, Jakob Schmidmeier, and Johannes A. C. Barth
Biogeosciences, 19, 5343–5355, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5343-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5343-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Organic matter (OM) turnover into dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) was investigated by means of carbon isotope mass balances in Germany's largest water reservoir. This includes a metalimnetic oxygen minimum (MOM). Autochthonous particulate organic carbon (POC) was the main contributor to DIC, with rates that were highest for the MOM. Generally low turnover rates outline the environmental fragility of this water body in the case that OM loads increase due to storm events or land use changes.
Axel A. J. Deijns, Olivier Dewitte, Wim Thiery, Nicolas d'Oreye, Jean-Philippe Malet, and François Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3679–3700, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides and flash floods are rainfall-induced processes that often co-occur and interact, generally very quickly. In mountainous cloud-covered environments, determining when these processes occur remains challenging. We propose a regional methodology using open-access satellite radar images that allow for the timing of landslide and flash floods events, in the contrasting landscapes of tropical Africa, with an accuracy of up to a few days. The methodology shows potential for transferability.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Chang Liao, Donghui Xu, Gautam Bisht, Tian Zhou, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5473–5491, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5473-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5473-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level rise, storm surge and river discharge can cause coastal backwater effects in downstream sections of rivers, creating critical flood risks. This study simulates the backwater effects using a large-scale river model on a coastal-refined computational mesh. By decomposing the backwater drivers, we revealed their relative importance and long-term variations. Our analysis highlights the increasing strength of backwater effects due to sea level rise and more frequent storm surge.
Artur Safin, Damien Bouffard, Firat Ozdemir, Cintia L. Ramón, James Runnalls, Fotis Georgatos, Camille Minaudo, and Jonas Šukys
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7715–7730, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7715-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7715-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Reconciling the differences between numerical model predictions and observational data is always a challenge. In this paper, we investigate the viability of a novel approach to the calibration of a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Lake Geneva, where the target parameters are inferred in terms of distributions. We employ a filtering technique that generates physically consistent model trajectories and implement a neural network to enable bulk-to-skin temperature conversion.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1305–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation, and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occurs and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Mengxiao Wang, Lijuan Wen, Zhaoguo Li, Matti Leppäranta, Victor Stepanenko, Yixin Zhao, Ruijia Niu, Liuyiyi Yang, and Georgiy Kirillin
The Cryosphere, 16, 3635–3648, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3635-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3635-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The under-ice water temperature of Ngoring Lake has been rising based on in situ observations. We obtained results showing that strong downward shortwave radiation is the main meteorological factor, and precipitation, wind speed, downward longwave radiation, air temperature, ice albedo, and ice extinction coefficient have an impact on the range and rate of lake temperature rise. Once the ice breaks, the lake body releases more energy than other lakes, whose water temperature remains horizontal.
Dominik Paprotny and Matthias Mengel
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-194, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-194, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Population and economic growth over past decades have increased risk posed by natural hazards. The model presented here generates high-resolution maps of land use, population and assets (exposure) from 1870 to 2020 for 42 countries. It combines multiple methods with a large database of historical statistical data to approximate past anthropogenic environment of Europe. It enables attributing losses from past disasters to climate change by removing the influence of changes in exposure.
Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Roderick Dewar, Gianluca Tramontana, Aleksanteri Mauranen, Pasi Kolari, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Dario Papale, Timo Vesala, and Ivan Mammarella
Biogeosciences, 19, 4067–4088, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4067-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4067-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Four different methods for quantifying photosynthesis (GPP) at ecosystem scale were tested, of which two are based on carbon dioxide (CO2) and two on carbonyl sulfide (COS) flux measurements. CO2-based methods are traditional partitioning, and a new method uses machine learning. We introduce a novel method for calculating GPP from COS fluxes, with potentially better applicability than the former methods. Both COS-based methods gave on average higher GPP estimates than the CO2-based estimates.
Elena Shevnina, Miguel Potes, Timo Vihma, Tuomas Naakka, Pankaj Ramji Dhote, and Praveen Kumar Thakur
The Cryosphere, 16, 3101–3121, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3101-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3101-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The evaporation over an ice-free glacial lake was measured in January 2018, and the uncertainties inherent to five indirect methods were quantified. Results show that in summer up to 5 mm of water evaporated daily from the surface of the lake located in Antarctica. The indirect methods underestimated the evaporation over the lake's surface by up to 72 %. The results are important for estimating the evaporation over polar regions where a growing number of glacial lakes have recently been evident.
Louise Busschaert, Shannon de Roos, Wim Thiery, Dirk Raes, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3731–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Increasing amounts of water are used for agriculture. Therefore, we looked into how irrigation requirements will evolve under a changing climate over Europe. Our results show that, by the end of the century and under high emissions, irrigation water will increase by 30 % on average compared to the year 2000. Also, the irrigation requirement is likely to vary more from 1 year to another. However, if emissions are mitigated, these effects are reduced.
Joonatan Ala-Könni, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Matti Leppäranta, and Ivan Mammarella
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4739–4755, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4739-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4739-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Properties of seasonally ice-covered lakes are not currently sufficiently included in global climate models. To fill this gap, this study evaluates three models that could be used to quantify the amount of heat that moves from and into the lake by the air above it and through evaporation of the ice cover. The results show that the complex nature of the surrounding environment as well as difficulties in accurately measuring the surface temperature of ice introduce errors to these models.
Victor Lomov, Victor Stepanenko, Maria Grechushnikova, and Irina Repina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-329, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-329, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first mechanistic model LAKE2.3 for prediction of methane emissions from artificial reservoirs. Estimates of CH4 emissions from the Mozhaysk reservoir (Moscow region) provided by the model are demonstrated. Methane annual emissions through diffusion, ebullition and downstream degassing according to in situ measurements and model simulations are presented. The experiments with the model allowed to determine the most sensitive model parameters for calibration of methane fluxes.
Inne Vanderkelen, Shervan Gharari, Naoki Mizukami, Martyn P. Clark, David M. Lawrence, Sean Swenson, Yadu Pokhrel, Naota Hanasaki, Ann van Griensven, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4163–4192, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4163-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4163-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Human-controlled reservoirs have a large influence on the global water cycle. However, dam operations are rarely represented in Earth system models. We implement and evaluate a widely used reservoir parametrization in a global river-routing model. Using observations of individual reservoirs, the reservoir scheme outperforms the natural lake scheme. However, both schemes show a similar performance due to biases in runoff timing and magnitude when using simulated runoff.
Jarmo Mäkelä, Laila Melkas, Ivan Mammarella, Tuomo Nieminen, Suyog Chandramouli, Rafael Savvides, and Kai Puolamäki
Biogeosciences, 19, 2095–2099, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2095-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2095-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Causal structure discovery algorithms have been making headway into Earth system sciences, and they can be used to increase our understanding on biosphere–atmosphere interactions. In this paper we present a procedure on how to utilize prior knowledge of the domain experts together with these algorithms in order to find more robust causal structure models. We also demonstrate how to avoid pitfalls such as over-fitting and concept drift during this process.
Bernhard Aichner, David Dubbert, Christine Kiel, Katrin Kohnert, Igor Ogashawara, Andreas Jechow, Sarah-Faye Harpenslager, Franz Hölker, Jens Christian Nejstgaard, Hans-Peter Grossart, Gabriel Singer, Sabine Wollrab, and Stella Angela Berger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1857–1867, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1857-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1857-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Water isotopes were measured along transects and in the form of time series in northeastern German lakes. The spatial patterns within the data and their seasonal variability are related to morphological and hydrological properties of the studied lake systems. They are further useful for the understanding of biogeochemical and ecological characteristics of these lakes.
Hanna K. Lappalainen, Tuukka Petäjä, Timo Vihma, Jouni Räisänen, Alexander Baklanov, Sergey Chalov, Igor Esau, Ekaterina Ezhova, Matti Leppäranta, Dmitry Pozdnyakov, Jukka Pumpanen, Meinrat O. Andreae, Mikhail Arshinov, Eija Asmi, Jianhui Bai, Igor Bashmachnikov, Boris Belan, Federico Bianchi, Boris Biskaborn, Michael Boy, Jaana Bäck, Bin Cheng, Natalia Chubarova, Jonathan Duplissy, Egor Dyukarev, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Martin Forsius, Martin Heimann, Sirkku Juhola, Vladimir Konovalov, Igor Konovalov, Pavel Konstantinov, Kajar Köster, Elena Lapshina, Anna Lintunen, Alexander Mahura, Risto Makkonen, Svetlana Malkhazova, Ivan Mammarella, Stefano Mammola, Stephany Buenrostro Mazon, Outi Meinander, Eugene Mikhailov, Victoria Miles, Stanislav Myslenkov, Dmitry Orlov, Jean-Daniel Paris, Roberta Pirazzini, Olga Popovicheva, Jouni Pulliainen, Kimmo Rautiainen, Torsten Sachs, Vladimir Shevchenko, Andrey Skorokhod, Andreas Stohl, Elli Suhonen, Erik S. Thomson, Marina Tsidilina, Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen, Petteri Uotila, Aki Virkkula, Nadezhda Voropay, Tobias Wolf, Sayaka Yasunaka, Jiahua Zhang, Yubao Qiu, Aijun Ding, Huadong Guo, Valery Bondur, Nikolay Kasimov, Sergej Zilitinkevich, Veli-Matti Kerminen, and Markku Kulmala
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4413–4469, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We summarize results during the last 5 years in the northern Eurasian region, especially from Russia, and introduce recent observations of the air quality in the urban environments in China. Although the scientific knowledge in these regions has increased, there are still gaps in our understanding of large-scale climate–Earth surface interactions and feedbacks. This arises from limitations in research infrastructures and integrative data analyses, hindering a comprehensive system analysis.
Leah A. Jackson-Blake, François Clayer, Elvira de Eyto, Andrew S. French, María Dolores Frías, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Tadhg Moore, Laura Puértolas, Russell Poole, Karsten Rinke, Muhammed Shikhani, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1389–1406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We explore, together with stakeholders, whether seasonal forecasting of water quantity, quality, and ecology can help support water management at five case study sites, primarily in Europe. Reliable forecasting, a season in advance, has huge potential to improve decision-making. However, managers were reluctant to use the forecasts operationally. Key barriers were uncertainty and often poor historic performance. The importance of practical hands-on experience was also highlighted.
Jinshi Jian, Xuan Du, Juying Jiao, Xiaohua Ren, Karl Auerswald, Ryan Stewart, Zeli Tan, Jianlin Zhao, Daniel L. Evans, Guangju Zhao, Nufang Fang, Wenyi Sun, Chao Yue, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-87, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Field soil loss and sediment yield due to surface runoff observations were compiled into a database named AWESOME: Archive for Water Erosion and Sediment Outflow MEasurements. Annual soil erosion data from 1985 geographic sites and 75 countries have been compiled into AWESOME. This database aims to be an open framework for the scientific community to share field-based annual soil erosion measurements, enabling better understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of annual soil erosion.
Timo Vesala, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Arnaud P. Praplan, Lenka Foltýnová, Pasi Kolari, Markku Kulmala, Jaana Bäck, David Nelson, Dan Yakir, Mark Zahniser, and Ivan Mammarella
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2569–2584, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2569-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2569-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Carbonyl sulfide (COS) provides new insights into carbon cycle research. We present an easy-to-use flux parameterization and the longest existing time series of forest–atmosphere COS exchange measurements, which allow us to study both seasonal and interannual variability. We observed only uptake of COS by the forest on an annual basis, with 37 % variability between years. Upscaling the boreal COS uptake using a biosphere model indicates a significant missing COS sink at high latitudes.
Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Hong-Yi Li, Zhenduo Zhu, Zeli Tan, and L. Ruby Leung
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 929–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-929-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-929-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Existing riverbed sediment particle size data are sparsely available at individual sites. We develop a continuous map of median riverbed sediment particle size over the contiguous US corresponding to millions of river segments based on the existing observations and machine learning methods. This map is useful for research in large-scale river sediment using model- and data-driven approaches, teaching environmental and earth system sciences, planning and managing floodplain zones, etc.
Aine M. Gormley-Gallagher, Sebastian Sterl, Annette L. Hirsch, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Edouard L. Davin, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-419-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our results show that agricultural management can impact the local climate and highlight the need to evaluate land management in climate models. We use regression analysis on climate simulations and observations to assess irrigation and conservation agriculture impacts on warming trends. This allowed us to distinguish between the effects of land management and large-scale climate forcings such as rising CO2 concentrations and thus gain insight into the impacts under different climate regimes.
Hong-Yi Li, Zeli Tan, Hongbo Ma, Zhenduo Zhu, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Senlin Zhu, Sagy Cohen, Tian Zhou, Donghui Xu, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 665–688, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-665-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-665-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new multi-process river sediment module for Earth system models. Application and validation over the contiguous US indicate a satisfactory model performance over large river systems, including those heavily regulated by reservoirs. This new sediment module enables future modeling of the transportation and transformation of carbon and nutrients carried by the fine sediment along the river–ocean continuum to close the global carbon and nutrient cycles.
Tomy Doda, Cintia L. Ramón, Hugo N. Ulloa, Alfred Wüest, and Damien Bouffard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 331–353, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-331-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-331-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
At night or during cold periods, the shallow littoral region of lakes cools faster than their deeper interior. This induces a cold downslope current that carries littoral waters offshore. From a 1-year-long database collected in a small temperate lake, we resolve the seasonality of this current and report its frequent occurrence from summer to winter. This study contributes to a better quantification of lateral exchange in lakes, with implications for the transport of dissolved compounds.
Anna-Maria Virkkala, Susan M. Natali, Brendan M. Rogers, Jennifer D. Watts, Kathleen Savage, Sara June Connon, Marguerite Mauritz, Edward A. G. Schuur, Darcy Peter, Christina Minions, Julia Nojeim, Roisin Commane, Craig A. Emmerton, Mathias Goeckede, Manuel Helbig, David Holl, Hiroki Iwata, Hideki Kobayashi, Pasi Kolari, Efrén López-Blanco, Maija E. Marushchak, Mikhail Mastepanov, Lutz Merbold, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Torsten Sachs, Oliver Sonnentag, Masahito Ueyama, Carolina Voigt, Mika Aurela, Julia Boike, Gerardo Celis, Namyi Chae, Torben R. Christensen, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Sigrid Dengel, Han Dolman, Colin W. Edgar, Bo Elberling, Eugenie Euskirchen, Achim Grelle, Juha Hatakka, Elyn Humphreys, Järvi Järveoja, Ayumi Kotani, Lars Kutzbach, Tuomas Laurila, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Yojiro Matsuura, Gesa Meyer, Mats B. Nilsson, Steven F. Oberbauer, Sang-Jong Park, Roman Petrov, Anatoly S. Prokushkin, Christopher Schulze, Vincent L. St. Louis, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Juha-Pekka Tuovinen, William Quinton, Andrej Varlagin, Donatella Zona, and Viacheslav I. Zyryanov
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 179–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-179-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-179-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The effects of climate warming on carbon cycling across the Arctic–boreal zone (ABZ) remain poorly understood due to the relatively limited distribution of ABZ flux sites. Fortunately, this flux network is constantly increasing, but new measurements are published in various platforms, making it challenging to understand the ABZ carbon cycle as a whole. Here, we compiled a new database of Arctic–boreal CO2 fluxes to help facilitate large-scale assessments of the ABZ carbon cycle.
Manuel C. Almeida, Yurii Shevchuk, Georgiy Kirillin, Pedro M. M. Soares, Rita M. Cardoso, José P. Matos, Ricardo M. Rebelo, António C. Rodrigues, and Pedro S. Coelho
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 173–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-173-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-173-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we have evaluated the importance of the input of energy conveyed by river inflows into lakes and reservoirs when modeling surface water energy fluxes. Our results suggest that there is a strong correlation between water residence time and the surface water temperature prediction error and that the combined use of process-based physical models and machine-learning models will considerably improve the modeling of air–lake heat and moisture fluxes.
Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Ara Cho, Jin Ma, Aleya Kaushik, Katherine D. Haynes, Ian Baker, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Mathijs Groenink, Wouter Peters, John B. Miller, Joseph A. Berry, Jerome Ogée, Laura K. Meredith, Wu Sun, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Timo Vesala, Ivan Mammarella, Huilin Chen, Felix M. Spielmann, Georg Wohlfahrt, Max Berkelhammer, Mary E. Whelan, Kadmiel Maseyk, Ulli Seibt, Roisin Commane, Richard Wehr, and Maarten Krol
Biogeosciences, 18, 6547–6565, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6547-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6547-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The gas carbonyl sulfide (COS) can be used to estimate photosynthesis. To adopt this approach on regional and global scales, we need biosphere models that can simulate COS exchange. So far, such models have not been evaluated against observations. We evaluate the COS biosphere exchange of the SiB4 model against COS flux observations. We find that the model is capable of simulating key processes in COS biosphere exchange. Still, we give recommendations for further improvement of the model.
Auke J. Visser, Laurens N. Ganzeveld, Ignacio Goded, Maarten C. Krol, Ivan Mammarella, Giovanni Manca, and K. Folkert Boersma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18393–18411, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18393-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Dry deposition is an important sink for tropospheric ozone that affects ecosystem carbon uptake, but process understanding remains incomplete. We apply a common deposition representation in atmospheric chemistry models and a multi-layer canopy model to multi-year ozone deposition observations. The multi-layer canopy model performs better on diurnal timescales compared to the common approach, leading to a substantially improved simulation of ozone deposition and vegetation ozone impact metrics.
Marco Toffolon, Luca Cortese, and Damien Bouffard
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7527–7543, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7527-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7527-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The time when lakes freeze varies considerably from year to year. A common way to predict it is to use negative degree days, i.e., the sum of air temperatures below 0 °C, a proxy for the heat lost to the atmosphere. Here, we show that this is insufficient as the mixing of the surface layer induced by wind tends to delay the formation of ice. To do so, we developed a minimal model based on a simplified energy balance, which can be used both for large-scale analyses and short-term predictions.
Pascal Perolo, Bieito Fernández Castro, Nicolas Escoffier, Thibault Lambert, Damien Bouffard, and Marie-Elodie Perga
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1169–1189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1169-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1169-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Wind blowing over the ocean creates waves that, by increasing the level of turbulence, promote gas exchange at the air–water interface. In this study, for the first time, we measured enhanced gas exchanges by wind-induced waves at the surface of a large lake. We adapted an ocean-based model to account for the effect of surface waves on gas exchange in lakes. We finally show that intense wind events with surface waves contribute disproportionately to the annual CO2 gas flux in a large lake.
Alex Resovsky, Michel Ramonet, Leonard Rivier, Jerome Tarniewicz, Philippe Ciais, Martin Steinbacher, Ivan Mammarella, Meelis Mölder, Michal Heliasz, Dagmar Kubistin, Matthias Lindauer, Jennifer Müller-Williams, Sebastien Conil, and Richard Engelen
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 6119–6135, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6119-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a technical description of a statistical methodology for extracting synoptic- and seasonal-length anomalies from greenhouse gas time series. The definition of what represents an anomalous signal is somewhat subjective, which we touch on throughout the paper. We show, however, that the method performs reasonably well in extracting portions of time series influenced by significant North Atlantic Oscillation weather episodes and continent-wide terrestrial biospheric aberrations.
Matthias Mengel, Simon Treu, Stefan Lange, and Katja Frieler
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5269–5284, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5269-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5269-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
To identify the impacts of historical climate change it is necessary to separate the effect of the different impact drivers. To address this, one needs to compare historical impacts to a counterfactual world with impacts that would have been without climate change. We here present an approach that produces counterfactual climate data and can be used in climate impact models to simulate counterfactual impacts. We make these data available through the ISIMIP project.
Pavel Alekseychik, Aino Korrensalo, Ivan Mammarella, Samuli Launiainen, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Ilkka Korpela, and Timo Vesala
Biogeosciences, 18, 4681–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4681-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4681-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Bogs of northern Eurasia represent a major type of peatland ecosystem and contain vast amounts of carbon, but carbon balance monitoring studies on bogs are scarce. The current project explores 6 years of carbon balance data obtained using the state-of-the-art eddy-covariance technique at a Finnish bog Siikaneva. The results reveal relatively low interannual variability indicative of ecosystem resilience to both cool and hot summers and provide new insights into the seasonal course of C fluxes.
Silje Lund Sørland, Roman Brogli, Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Emmanuele Russo, Jonas Van de Walle, Bodo Ahrens, Ivonne Anders, Edoardo Bucchignani, Edouard L. Davin, Marie-Estelle Demory, Alessandro Dosio, Hendrik Feldmann, Barbara Früh, Beate Geyer, Klaus Keuler, Donghyun Lee, Delei Li, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Seung-Ki Min, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Burkhardt Rockel, Christoph Schär, Christian Steger, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5125–5154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We review the contribution from the CLM-Community to regional climate projections following the CORDEX framework over Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. How the model configuration, horizontal and vertical resolutions, and choice of driving data influence the model results for the five domains is assessed, with the purpose of aiding the planning and design of regional climate simulations in the future.
Kyle B. Delwiche, Sara Helen Knox, Avni Malhotra, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Gavin McNicol, Sarah Feron, Zutao Ouyang, Dario Papale, Carlo Trotta, Eleonora Canfora, You-Wei Cheah, Danielle Christianson, Ma. Carmelita R. Alberto, Pavel Alekseychik, Mika Aurela, Dennis Baldocchi, Sheel Bansal, David P. Billesbach, Gil Bohrer, Rosvel Bracho, Nina Buchmann, David I. Campbell, Gerardo Celis, Jiquan Chen, Weinan Chen, Housen Chu, Higo J. Dalmagro, Sigrid Dengel, Ankur R. Desai, Matteo Detto, Han Dolman, Elke Eichelmann, Eugenie Euskirchen, Daniela Famulari, Kathrin Fuchs, Mathias Goeckede, Sébastien Gogo, Mangaliso J. Gondwe, Jordan P. Goodrich, Pia Gottschalk, Scott L. Graham, Martin Heimann, Manuel Helbig, Carole Helfter, Kyle S. Hemes, Takashi Hirano, David Hollinger, Lukas Hörtnagl, Hiroki Iwata, Adrien Jacotot, Gerald Jurasinski, Minseok Kang, Kuno Kasak, John King, Janina Klatt, Franziska Koebsch, Ken W. Krauss, Derrick Y. F. Lai, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Luca Belelli Marchesini, Giovanni Manca, Jaclyn Hatala Matthes, Trofim Maximov, Lutz Merbold, Bhaskar Mitra, Timothy H. Morin, Eiko Nemitz, Mats B. Nilsson, Shuli Niu, Walter C. Oechel, Patricia Y. Oikawa, Keisuke Ono, Matthias Peichl, Olli Peltola, Michele L. Reba, Andrew D. Richardson, William Riley, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Youngryel Ryu, Torsten Sachs, Ayaka Sakabe, Camilo Rey Sanchez, Edward A. Schuur, Karina V. R. Schäfer, Oliver Sonnentag, Jed P. Sparks, Ellen Stuart-Haëntjens, Cove Sturtevant, Ryan C. Sullivan, Daphne J. Szutu, Jonathan E. Thom, Margaret S. Torn, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Jessica Turner, Masahito Ueyama, Alex C. Valach, Rodrigo Vargas, Andrej Varlagin, Alma Vazquez-Lule, Joseph G. Verfaillie, Timo Vesala, George L. Vourlitis, Eric J. Ward, Christian Wille, Georg Wohlfahrt, Guan Xhuan Wong, Zhen Zhang, Donatella Zona, Lisamarie Windham-Myers, Benjamin Poulter, and Robert B. Jackson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3607–3689, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3607-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3607-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Methane is an important greenhouse gas, yet we lack knowledge about its global emissions and drivers. We present FLUXNET-CH4, a new global collection of methane measurements and a critical resource for the research community. We use FLUXNET-CH4 data to quantify the seasonality of methane emissions from freshwater wetlands, finding that methane seasonality varies strongly with latitude. Our new database and analysis will improve wetland model accuracy and inform greenhouse gas budgets.
Toprak Aslan, Olli Peltola, Andreas Ibrom, Eiko Nemitz, Üllar Rannik, and Ivan Mammarella
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 5089–5106, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5089-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5089-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Vertical turbulent fluxes of gases measured by the eddy covariance (EC) technique are subject to high-frequency losses. There are different methods used to describe this low-pass filtering effect and to correct the measured fluxes. In this study, we analysed the systematic uncertainty related to this correction for various attenuation and signal-to-noise ratios. A new and robust transfer function method is finally proposed.
Olli Peltola, Toprak Aslan, Andreas Ibrom, Eiko Nemitz, Üllar Rannik, and Ivan Mammarella
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 5071–5088, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5071-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5071-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Gas fluxes measured by the eddy covariance (EC) technique are subject to filtering due to non-ideal instrumentation. For linear first-order systems this filtering causes also a time lag between vertical wind speed and gas signal which is additional to the gas travel time in the sampling line. The effect of this additional time lag on EC fluxes is ignored in current EC data processing routines. Here we show that this oversight biases EC fluxes and hence propose an approach to rectify this bias.
Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Wim Thiery, Guoyong Leng, Peter Burek, Xingcai Liu, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Manolis Grillakis, Simon Newland Gosling, Yusuke Satoh, Oldrich Rakovec, Tobias Stacke, Jinfeng Chang, Niko Wanders, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Tim Trautmann, Ganquan Mao, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Luis Samaniego, Yoshihide Wada, Vimal Mishra, Junguo Liu, Petra Döll, Fang Zhao, Anne Gädeke, Sam S. Rabin, and Florian Herz
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3843–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in 16 global water models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. We develop a standard writing style for the model equations. We conclude that even though hydrologic processes are often based on similar equations, in the end these equations have been adjusted, or the models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables.
Anna B. Harper, Karina E. Williams, Patrick C. McGuire, Maria Carolina Duran Rojas, Debbie Hemming, Anne Verhoef, Chris Huntingford, Lucy Rowland, Toby Marthews, Cleiton Breder Eller, Camilla Mathison, Rodolfo L. B. Nobrega, Nicola Gedney, Pier Luigi Vidale, Fred Otu-Larbi, Divya Pandey, Sebastien Garrigues, Azin Wright, Darren Slevin, Martin G. De Kauwe, Eleanor Blyth, Jonas Ardö, Andrew Black, Damien Bonal, Nina Buchmann, Benoit Burban, Kathrin Fuchs, Agnès de Grandcourt, Ivan Mammarella, Lutz Merbold, Leonardo Montagnani, Yann Nouvellon, Natalia Restrepo-Coupe, and Georg Wohlfahrt
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3269–3294, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3269-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3269-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated 10 representations of soil moisture stress in the JULES land surface model against site observations of GPP and latent heat flux. Increasing the soil depth and plant access to deep soil moisture improved many aspects of the simulations, and we recommend these settings in future work using JULES. In addition, using soil matric potential presents the opportunity to include parameters specific to plant functional type to further improve modeled fluxes.
Anja Katzenberger, Jacob Schewe, Julia Pongratz, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 367–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
All state-of-the-art global climate models that contributed to the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show a robust increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall that is even stronger than in the previous intercomparison (CMIP5). Furthermore, they show an increase in the year-to-year variability of this seasonal rainfall that crucially influences the livelihood of more than 1 billion people in India.
Cintia L. Ramón, Hugo N. Ulloa, Tomy Doda, Kraig B. Winters, and Damien Bouffard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1813–1825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1813-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1813-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
When solar radiation penetrates the frozen surface of lakes, shallower zones underneath warm faster than deep interior waters. This numerical study shows that the transport of excess heat to the lake interior depends on the lake circulation, affected by Earth's rotation, and controls the lake warming rates and the spatial distribution of the heat flux across the ice–water interface. This work contributes to the understanding of the circulation and thermal structure patterns of ice-covered lakes.
Matthias Koschorreck, Yves T. Prairie, Jihyeon Kim, and Rafael Marcé
Biogeosciences, 18, 1619–1627, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1619-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1619-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in water samples is often measured using a gas chromatograph. Depending on the chemical composition of the water, this method can produce wrong results. We quantified the possible error and how it depends on water composition and the analytical procedure. We propose a method to correct wrong results by additionally analysing alkalinity in the samples. We provide an easily usable computer code to perform the correction calculations.
Robert Ladwig, Paul C. Hanson, Hilary A. Dugan, Cayelan C. Carey, Yu Zhang, Lele Shu, Christopher J. Duffy, and Kelly M. Cobourn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1009–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1009-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1009-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using a modeling framework applied to 37 years of dissolved oxygen time series data from Lake Mendota, we identified the timing and intensity of thermal energy stored in the lake water column, the lake's resilience to mixing, and surface primary production as the most important drivers of interannual dynamics of low oxygen concentrations at the lake bottom. Due to climate change, we expect an increase in the spatial and temporal extent of low oxygen concentrations in Lake Mendota.
Robert Reinecke, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Peter Burek, Martina Flörke, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Wim Thiery, Yoshihide Wada, Satoh Yusuke, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 787–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Billions of people rely on groundwater as an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Groundwater recharge is the primary process of regenerating groundwater resources. We find that groundwater recharge will increase in northern Europe by about 19 % and decrease by 10 % in the Amazon with 3 °C global warming. In the Mediterranean, a 2 °C warming has already lead to a reduction in recharge by 38 %. However, these model predictions are uncertain.
Tamara Emmerichs, Astrid Kerkweg, Huug Ouwersloot, Silvano Fares, Ivan Mammarella, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 495–519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-495-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-495-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Dry deposition to vegetation is a major sink of ground-level ozone. Its parameterization in atmospheric chemistry models represents a significant source of uncertainty for global tropospheric ozone. We extended the current model parameterization with a relevant pathway and important meteorological adjustment factors. The comparison with measurements shows that this enables a more realistic model representation of ozone dry deposition velocity. Globally, annual dry deposition loss increases.
Camille Yver-Kwok, Carole Philippon, Peter Bergamaschi, Tobias Biermann, Francescopiero Calzolari, Huilin Chen, Sebastien Conil, Paolo Cristofanelli, Marc Delmotte, Juha Hatakka, Michal Heliasz, Ove Hermansen, Kateřina Komínková, Dagmar Kubistin, Nicolas Kumps, Olivier Laurent, Tuomas Laurila, Irene Lehner, Janne Levula, Matthias Lindauer, Morgan Lopez, Ivan Mammarella, Giovanni Manca, Per Marklund, Jean-Marc Metzger, Meelis Mölder, Stephen M. Platt, Michel Ramonet, Leonard Rivier, Bert Scheeren, Mahesh Kumar Sha, Paul Smith, Martin Steinbacher, Gabriela Vítková, and Simon Wyss
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 89–116, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-89-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-89-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) is a pan-European research infrastructure which provides harmonized and high-precision scientific data on the carbon cycle and the greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. All stations have to undergo a rigorous assessment before being labeled, i.e., receiving approval to join the network. In this paper, we present the labeling process for the ICOS atmospheric network through the 23 stations that were labeled between November 2017 and November 2019.
Carlos Miranda Rodrigues, Madalena Moreira, Rita Cabral Guimarães, and Miguel Potes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5973–5984, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5973-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5973-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In Mediterranean environments, evaporation is a key component of reservoir water budgets. Prediction of surface evaporation becomes crucial for adequate reservoir water management. This study provides an applicable method for calculating evaporation based on pan measurements applied at Alqueva Reservoir (southern Portugal), one of the largest artificial lakes in Europe. Moreover, the methodology presented here could be applied to other Mediterranean reservoirs.
Harriet L. Wilson, Ana I. Ayala, Ian D. Jones, Alec Rolston, Don Pierson, Elvira de Eyto, Hans-Peter Grossart, Marie-Elodie Perga, R. Iestyn Woolway, and Eleanor Jennings
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5559–5577, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5559-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5559-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes are often described in terms of vertical layers. The
epilimnionrefers to the warm surface layer that is homogeneous due to mixing. The depth of the epilimnion can influence air–water exchanges and the vertical distribution of biological variables. We compared various methods for defining the epilimnion layer and found large variability between methods. Certain methods may be better suited for applications such as multi-lake comparison and assessing the impact of climate change.
Lena R. Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa M. Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We find a biogeophysically induced global cooling with strong carbon losses in a 20 million square kilometre idealized deforestation experiment performed by nine CMIP6 Earth system models. It takes many decades for the temperature signal to emerge, with non-local effects playing an important role. Despite a consistent experimental setup, models diverge substantially in their climate responses. This study offers unprecedented insights for understanding land use change effects in CMIP6 models.
Yuan Zhang, Ana Bastos, Fabienne Maignan, Daniel Goll, Olivier Boucher, Laurent Li, Alessandro Cescatti, Nicolas Vuichard, Xiuzhi Chen, Christof Ammann, M. Altaf Arain, T. Andrew Black, Bogdan Chojnicki, Tomomichi Kato, Ivan Mammarella, Leonardo Montagnani, Olivier Roupsard, Maria J. Sanz, Lukas Siebicke, Marek Urbaniak, Francesco Primo Vaccari, Georg Wohlfahrt, Will Woodgate, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5401–5423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5401-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5401-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We improved the ORCHIDEE LSM by distinguishing diffuse and direct light in canopy and evaluated the new model with observations from 159 sites. Compared with the old model, the new model has better sunny GPP and reproduced the diffuse light fertilization effect observed at flux sites. Our simulations also indicate different mechanisms causing the observed GPP enhancement under cloudy conditions at different times. The new model has the potential to study large-scale impacts of aerosol changes.
Jinshi Jian, Xuan Du, Ryan D. Stewart, Zeli Tan, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-283, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-283, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Field soil loss due to surface runoff observations were compiled into a global database (SoilErosionDB). The database focuses on three erosion-related metrics – surface runoff, soil erosion, and nutrient leaching – and also records background information. Data from 99 geographic sites and 22 countries around the world have been compiled into SoilErosionDB. SoilErosionDB aims to be a data framework for the scientific community to share field-based soil erosion measurements.
Bram Droppers, Wietse H. P. Franssen, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Bart Nijssen, and Fulco Ludwig
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5029–5052, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5029-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5029-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Our study aims to include both both societal and natural water requirements and uses into a hydrological model in order to enable worldwide assessments of sustainable water use. The model was extended to include irrigation, domestic, industrial, energy, and livestock water uses as well as minimum flow requirements for natural systems. Initial results showed competition for water resources between society and nature, especially with respect to groundwater withdrawals.
Pengfei Han, Ning Zeng, Tom Oda, Xiaohui Lin, Monica Crippa, Dabo Guan, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Xiaolin Ma, Zhu Liu, Yuli Shan, Shu Tao, Haikun Wang, Rong Wang, Lin Wu, Xiao Yun, Qiang Zhang, Fang Zhao, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11371–11385, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11371-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11371-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
An accurate estimation of China’s fossil-fuel CO2 emissions (FFCO2) is significant for quantification of carbon budget and emissions reductions towards the Paris Agreement goals. Here we assessed 9 global and regional inventories. Our findings highlight the significance of using locally measured coal emission factors. We call on the enhancement of physical measurements for validation and provide comprehensive information for inventory, monitoring, modeling, assimilation, and reducing emissions.
Maksim Iakunin, Victor Stepanenko, Rui Salgado, Miguel Potes, Alexandra Penha, Maria Helena Novais, and Gonçalo Rodrigues
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3475–3488, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3475-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3475-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Alqueva reservoir, located in the southeast of Portugal, is the largest artificial reservoir in western Europe. It was established in 2002 to provide water and electrical resources to meet regional needs. Complex research of this reservoir is an essential scientific task in the scope of meteorology, hydrology, biology, and ecology. Two numerical models (namely, LAKE 2.0 and FLake) were used to assess the thermodynamic and biogeochemical regimes of the reservoir over 2 years of observations.
Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Pasi Kolari, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Huilin Chen, Ulli Seibt, Wu Sun, and Ivan Mammarella
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 3957–3975, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-3957-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-3957-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Biosphere–atmosphere gas exchange (flux) measurements of carbonyl sulfide (COS) are becoming popular for estimating biospheric photosynthesis. To compare COS flux measurements across different measurement sites, we need standardized protocols for data processing. We analyze how various data processing steps affect the calculated COS flux and how they differ from carbon dioxide (CO2) flux processing steps, and we aim to settle on a set of recommended protocols for COS flux calculation.
Peter Burek, Yusuke Satoh, Taher Kahil, Ting Tang, Peter Greve, Mikhail Smilovic, Luca Guillaumot, Fang Zhao, and Yoshihide Wada
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3267–3298, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3267-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3267-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present the new global hydrological model "Community Water Model" (CWatM), which can be used globally and regionally. The model is open source and written with the Python programming language. It uses global, freely available data in a smart and state-of-the-art format. It includes the major hydrological processes but also takes into account human activities, such as water use and reservoir regulation, by calculating water demand from the agriculture, domestic, and industrial sectors.
Kevin Sterckx, Philippe Delandmeter, Jonathan Lambrechts, Eric Deleersnijder, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-36, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-36, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
This work covers multiple 3D simulations of the hydrodynamics of Lake Tanganyika, covering the inter-seasonal variations and the evolution linked to climate change. The research was done with COSMO-CLM2 data, which was used to run the SLIM 3D Lake Tanganyika model. The main results explain how this stratified lake can still maintain a certain mixing between the different layers, but how this would come to an end due to climate change.
Xuefei Li, Outi Wahlroos, Sami Haapanala, Jukka Pumpanen, Harri Vasander, Anne Ojala, Timo Vesala, and Ivan Mammarella
Biogeosciences, 17, 3409–3425, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3409-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3409-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We measured CO2 and CH4 fluxes and quantified the global warming potential of different surface areas in a recently created urban wetland in Southern Finland. The ecosystem has a small net climate warming effect which was mainly contributed by the open-water areas. Our results suggest that limiting open-water areas and setting a design preference for areas of emergent vegetation in the establishment of urban wetlands can be a beneficial practice when considering solely the climate impact.
Ana I. Ayala, Simone Moras, and Donald C. Pierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3311–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3311-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3311-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of different levels of global warming on the thermal structure of Lake Erken are assessed. We used the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) to simulate water temperature driven by meteorological scenarios supplied by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) and tested its ability at different frequencies. Then, daily ISIMIP meteorological scenarios were disaggregated and assessed for the effects of climate change on lake thermal structure.
Christopher P. O. Reyer, Ramiro Silveyra Gonzalez, Klara Dolos, Florian Hartig, Ylva Hauf, Matthias Noack, Petra Lasch-Born, Thomas Rötzer, Hans Pretzsch, Henning Meesenburg, Stefan Fleck, Markus Wagner, Andreas Bolte, Tanja G. M. Sanders, Pasi Kolari, Annikki Mäkelä, Timo Vesala, Ivan Mammarella, Jukka Pumpanen, Alessio Collalti, Carlo Trotta, Giorgio Matteucci, Ettore D'Andrea, Lenka Foltýnová, Jan Krejza, Andreas Ibrom, Kim Pilegaard, Denis Loustau, Jean-Marc Bonnefond, Paul Berbigier, Delphine Picart, Sébastien Lafont, Michael Dietze, David Cameron, Massimo Vieno, Hanqin Tian, Alicia Palacios-Orueta, Victor Cicuendez, Laura Recuero, Klaus Wiese, Matthias Büchner, Stefan Lange, Jan Volkholz, Hyungjun Kim, Joanna A. Horemans, Friedrich Bohn, Jörg Steinkamp, Alexander Chikalanov, Graham P. Weedon, Justin Sheffield, Flurin Babst, Iliusi Vega del Valle, Felicitas Suckow, Simon Martel, Mats Mahnken, Martin Gutsch, and Katja Frieler
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1295–1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1295-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1295-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Process-based vegetation models are widely used to predict local and global ecosystem dynamics and climate change impacts. Due to their complexity, they require careful parameterization and evaluation to ensure that projections are accurate and reliable. The PROFOUND Database provides a wide range of empirical data to calibrate and evaluate vegetation models that simulate climate impacts at the forest stand scale to support systematic model intercomparisons and model development in Europe.
Benjamin M. Kraemer, Anton Seimon, Rita Adrian, and Peter B. McIntyre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2593–2608, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2593-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2593-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Lake levels go up and down due to natural variability in the climate. But the effects of natural variability on lake levels can sometimes be confused for the influence of humans. Here we used long-term data from 200 globally distributed lakes and an advanced statistical approach to show that the effects of natural variability on lake levels can be disentangled from other effects leading to better estimates of long-term changes that may be partially caused by humans.
Georgiy Kirillin, Ilya Aslamov, Vladimir Kozlov, Roman Zdorovennov, and Nikolai Granin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1691–1708, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1691-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1691-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We found that heat transported from Lake Baikal to its ice cover is up to 10 times higher than traditionally assumed and strongly affects the ice melting. The heat is transported by under-ice currents on the background of a strong temperature gradient between the ice base and warmer waters beneath. To parameterize this newly quantified transport mechanism, an original boundary layer model was developed. The results are crucial for understanding seasonal ice dynamics on lakes and marginal seas.
Hong Xuan Do, Fang Zhao, Seth Westra, Michael Leonard, Lukas Gudmundsson, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tobias Stacke, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1543–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We presented a global comparison between observed and simulated trends in a flood index over the 1971–2005 period using the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata archive and six global hydrological models available through The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Streamflow simulations over 2006–2099 period robustly project high flood hazard in several regions. These high-flood-risk areas, however, are under-sampled by the current global streamflow databases.
Theo Baracchini, Philip Y. Chu, Jonas Šukys, Gian Lieberherr, Stefan Wunderle, Alfred Wüest, and Damien Bouffard
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1267–1284, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1267-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1267-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Lake physical processes occur at a wide range of spatiotemporal scales. 3D hydrodynamic lake models are the only information source capable of solving those scales; however, they still need observations to be calibrated and to constrain their uncertainties. The optimal combination of a 3D hydrodynamic model, in situ measurements, and remote sensing observations is achieved through data assimilation. Here we present a complete data assimilation experiment for lakes using open-source tools.
Sofya Guseva, Tobias Bleninger, Klaus Jöhnk, Bruna Arcie Polli, Zeli Tan, Wim Thiery, Qianlai Zhuang, James Anthony Rusak, Huaxia Yao, Andreas Lorke, and Victor Stepanenko
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 697–715, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-697-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-697-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We compare lake models with different complexity focusing on the key factors (e.g., eddy diffusivity) which can have an influence on the distribution of the dissolved gases in water. For the first time, we compare the biogeochemical modules in the ALBM and LAKE models. The result showed a good agreement with observed data (O2), but not for CO2. It indicates the need to improve the representation of physical and biogeochemical processes in lake models.
Simone Moras, Ana I. Ayala, and Don C. Pierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5001–5016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5001-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5001-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We used a hydrodynamic model to reconstruct daily historical water temperature of Lake Erken (Sweden) between 1961 and 2017 to demonstrate the ongoing effect of climate change on lake thermal conditions. The results show that the lake has warmed most rapidly in the last 30 years and that it is now subject to a longer and more stable stratification. The methods used here to reconstruct historical water temperature records can be easily extended to other lakes.
Carme Font, Francesco Bregoli, Vicenç Acuña, Sergi Sabater, and Rafael Marcé
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5213–5228, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5213-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5213-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
GLOBAL-FATE is an open-source, multiplatform, and flexible model that simulates the fate of pharmaceutical-like compounds in the global river network. The model considers the consumption of pharmaceuticals by humans, differentiates between pharmaceutical load treated in wastewater treatment plants from that directly delivered to streams and rivers, and integrates lakes and reservoirs in calculations. GLOBAL-FATE is a powerful tool for pollutant impact studies at the global scale.
Falko Ueckerdt, Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Leonie Wenz, Gunnar Luderer, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 741–763, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We compute the global mean temperature increase at which the costs from climate-change damages and climate-change mitigation are minimal. This temperature is computed robustly around 2 degrees of global warming across a wide range of normative assumptions on the valuation of future welfare and inequality aversion.
Paul C. Stoy, Tarek S. El-Madany, Joshua B. Fisher, Pierre Gentine, Tobias Gerken, Stephen P. Good, Anne Klosterhalfen, Shuguang Liu, Diego G. Miralles, Oscar Perez-Priego, Angela J. Rigden, Todd H. Skaggs, Georg Wohlfahrt, Ray G. Anderson, A. Miriam J. Coenders-Gerrits, Martin Jung, Wouter H. Maes, Ivan Mammarella, Matthias Mauder, Mirco Migliavacca, Jacob A. Nelson, Rafael Poyatos, Markus Reichstein, Russell L. Scott, and Sebastian Wolf
Biogeosciences, 16, 3747–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3747-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3747-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Key findings are the nearly optimal response of T to atmospheric water vapor pressure deficits across methods and scales. Additionally, the notion that T / ET intermittently approaches 1, which is a basis for many partitioning methods, does not hold for certain methods and ecosystems. To better constrain estimates of E and T from combined ET measurements, we propose a combination of independent measurement techniques to better constrain E and T at the ecosystem scale.
Jarmo Mäkelä, Jürgen Knauer, Mika Aurela, Andrew Black, Martin Heimann, Hideki Kobayashi, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Hank Margolis, Tiina Markkanen, Jouni Susiluoto, Tea Thum, Toni Viskari, Sönke Zaehle, and Tuula Aalto
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4075–4098, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4075-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4075-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the differences of six stomatal conductance formulations, embedded into a land–vegetation model JSBACH, on 10 boreal coniferous evergreen forest sites. We calibrate the model parameters using all six functions in a multi-year experiment, as well as for a separate drought event at one of the sites, using the adaptive population importance sampler. The analysis reveals weaknesses in the stomatal conductance formulation-dependent model behaviour that we are able to partially amend.
Adrien Gaudard, Love Råman Vinnå, Fabian Bärenbold, Martin Schmid, and Damien Bouffard
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3955–3974, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3955-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3955-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed an openly accessible web-based platform for visualization and promotion of easy access to one-dimensional hydrodynamic lake model output data updated in near-real time (simstrat.eawag.ch). This platform was developed for 54 lakes in Switzerland, with potential for adaptation to other regional areas or even at a global worldwide scale using appropriate forcing input data.
Petri Kiuru, Anne Ojala, Ivan Mammarella, Jouni Heiskanen, Kukka-Maaria Erkkilä, Heli Miettinen, Timo Vesala, and Timo Huttula
Biogeosciences, 16, 3297–3317, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3297-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3297-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Many boreal lakes emit the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere. We incorporated four different gas exchange models into a physico-biochemical lake model and studied their ability to simulate lake air–water CO2 fluxes. The inclusion of refined gas exchange models in lake models that simulate carbon cycling is important to assess lake carbon budgets. However, higher estimates for inorganic carbon sources in boreal lakes are needed to balance the CO2 losses to the atmosphere.
Olli Peltola, Timo Vesala, Yao Gao, Olle Räty, Pavel Alekseychik, Mika Aurela, Bogdan Chojnicki, Ankur R. Desai, Albertus J. Dolman, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Thomas Friborg, Mathias Göckede, Manuel Helbig, Elyn Humphreys, Robert B. Jackson, Georg Jocher, Fortunat Joos, Janina Klatt, Sara H. Knox, Natalia Kowalska, Lars Kutzbach, Sebastian Lienert, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Daniel F. Nadeau, Mats B. Nilsson, Walter C. Oechel, Matthias Peichl, Thomas Pypker, William Quinton, Janne Rinne, Torsten Sachs, Mateusz Samson, Hans Peter Schmid, Oliver Sonnentag, Christian Wille, Donatella Zona, and Tuula Aalto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1263–1289, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1263-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1263-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Here we develop a monthly gridded dataset of northern (> 45 N) wetland methane (CH4) emissions. The data product is derived using a random forest machine-learning technique and eddy covariance CH4 fluxes from 25 wetland sites. Annual CH4 emissions from these wetlands calculated from the derived data product are comparable to prior studies focusing on these areas. This product is an independent estimate of northern wetland CH4 emissions and hence could be used, e.g. for process model evaluation.
Inne Vanderkelen, Jakob Zschleischler, Lukas Gudmundsson, Klaus Keuler, Francois Rineau, Natalie Beenaerts, Jaco Vangronsveld, and Wim Thiery
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-267, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-267, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Elisa Männistö, Aino Korrensalo, Pavel Alekseychik, Ivan Mammarella, Olli Peltola, Timo Vesala, and Eeva-Stiina Tuittila
Biogeosciences, 16, 2409–2421, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2409-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2409-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We studied methane emitted as episodic bubble release (ebullition) from water and bare peat surfaces of a boreal bog over three years. There was more ebullition from water than from bare peat surfaces, and it was controlled by peat temperature, water level, atmospheric pressure and the weekly temperature sum. However, the contribution of methane bubbles to the total ecosystem methane emission was small. This new information can be used to improve process models of peatland methane dynamics.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Tricia Light, Núria Catalán, Santiago Giralt, and Rafael Marcé
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-128, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-128, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Water reservoir sediments can store large amounts of organic. However, it is unclear what happens to this organic carbon when water reservoirs go dry due to drought, water diversion, etc. Here, we conducted laboratory incubations of reservoir sediment to determine the effect of drying on this stored organic carbon. We found that while some of the organic carbon in water reservoir sediments is released to the atmosphere as reservoirs go dry, other sediment processes can offset these emissions.
Dongsheng Su, Xiuqing Hu, Lijuan Wen, Shihua Lyu, Xiaoqing Gao, Lin Zhao, Zhaoguo Li, Juan Du, and Georgiy Kirillin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2093–2109, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2093-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2093-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, freshwater lake model simulation results, verified by satellite and buoy observation data, were used to quantify recent climate change effects on the thermal regime of the largest lake in China. Results indicate that the FLake model can reproduce the lake thermal pattern nicely. The lake surface is warming, while the lake bottom has no significant trend. Climate change also caused an earlier ice-off and later ice-on, leading to an obvious change in the energy balance of the lake.
Mathias Hauser, Wim Thiery, and Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 157–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-157-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-157-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a method to keep the amount of water in the soil at the present-day level, using only local water sources in a global climate model. This leads to less drying over many land areas, but also decreases river runoff. We find that temperature extremes in the 21st century decrease substantially using our method. This provides a new perspective on how land water can influence regional climate and introduces land water management as potential tool for local mitigation of climate change.
Tom Shatwell, Wim Thiery, and Georgiy Kirillin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1533–1551, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We used models to project future temperature and mixing in temperate lakes. Lakes will probably warm faster in winter than in summer, making ice less frequent and altering mixing. We found that the layers that form seasonally in lakes (ice, stratification) and water clarity affect how lakes accumulate heat. Seasonal changes in climate were thus important. This helps us better understand how different lake types respond to warming and which physical changes to expect in the future.
Brian C. Doyle, Elvira de Eyto, Mary Dillane, Russell Poole, Valerie McCarthy, Elizabeth Ryder, and Eleanor Jennings
Biogeosciences, 16, 1053–1071, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1053-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1053-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the drivers of variation in the water colour of rivers, and hence organic carbon export, in a blanket peatland catchment. We used 6 years of weekly river water colour data (2011 to 2016) from three proximate river sub-catchments in western Ireland. in tandem with a range of topographical, hydrological and climate data, to discover the principle environmental drivers controlling changes in colour concentration in the rivers.
Matthew R. Hipsey, Louise C. Bruce, Casper Boon, Brendan Busch, Cayelan C. Carey, David P. Hamilton, Paul C. Hanson, Jordan S. Read, Eduardo de Sousa, Michael Weber, and Luke A. Winslow
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 473–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-473-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-473-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The General Lake Model (GLM) has been developed to undertake simulation of a diverse range of wetlands, lakes, and reservoirs. The model supports the science needs of the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON), a network of lake sensors and researchers attempting to understand lake functioning and address questions about how lakes around the world vary in response to climate and land use change. The paper describes the science basis and application of the model.
Miguel Potes, Gonçalo Rodrigues, Alexandra Marchã Penha, Maria Helena Novais, Maria João Costa, Rui Salgado, and Maria Manuela Morais
Proc. IAHS, 380, 73–79, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-73-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-73-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Alqueva reservoir is located in the southeast of Portugal. This region is facing an increase in droughts and a degradation in water quality mainly due to more frequent and lasting phytoplancton blooms. With satellite remote sensing is possible to monitoring such reservoirs. In this study, Sentinel-2 presents very good estimation for chlorophyll a, cyanobacteria and water turbidity during a micro algae bloom that vanished due to the approximation of hurricane Ophelia to Iberian Peninsula.
Ekaterina Ezhova, Ilona Ylivinkka, Joel Kuusk, Kaupo Komsaare, Marko Vana, Alisa Krasnova, Steffen Noe, Mikhail Arshinov, Boris Belan, Sung-Bin Park, Jošt Valentin Lavrič, Martin Heimann, Tuukka Petäjä, Timo Vesala, Ivan Mammarella, Pasi Kolari, Jaana Bäck, Üllar Rannik, Veli-Matti Kerminen, and Markku Kulmala
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17863–17881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17863-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17863-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the connections between aerosols, solar radiation and photosynthesis in terrestrial ecosystems is important for estimates of the CO2 balance in the atmosphere. Atmospheric aerosols and clouds influence solar radiation. In this study, we quantify the aerosol effect on solar radiation in boreal forests and study forest ecosystems response to this change in the radiation conditions. The analysis is based on atmospheric observations from several remote stations in Eurasian forests.
Georgiy Kirillin, Ilya Aslamov, Matti Leppäranta, and Elisa Lindgren
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6493–6504, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6493-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6493-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We have discovered transient appearances of strong turbulent mixing beneath the ice of an Arctic lake. Such mixing events increase heating of the ice base up to an order of magnitude and can significantly accelerate ice melting. The source of mixing was identified as oscillations of the entire lake water body triggered by strong winds over the lake surface. This previously unknown mechanism of ice melt may help understand the link between the climate conditions and the seasonal ice formation.
Qiaozhi Zha, Chao Yan, Heikki Junninen, Matthieu Riva, Nina Sarnela, Juho Aalto, Lauriane Quéléver, Simon Schallhart, Lubna Dada, Liine Heikkinen, Otso Peräkylä, Jun Zou, Clémence Rose, Yonghong Wang, Ivan Mammarella, Gabriel Katul, Timo Vesala, Douglas R. Worsnop, Markku Kulmala, Tuukka Petäjä, Federico Bianchi, and Mikael Ehn
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17437–17450, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17437-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17437-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Vertical measurements of highly oxygenated molecules (HOMs) below and above the forest canopy were performed for the first time in a boreal forest during September 2016. Our results highlight that near-ground HOM measurements may only be representative of a small fraction of the entire nocturnal boundary layer, which may sequentially influence the growth of newly formed particles and SOA formation close to ground surface, where the majority of measurements are conducted.
Gabriel Gerard Rooney, Nicole van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6357–6369, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6357-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6357-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper uses a unique observational dataset of a tropical African lake (L. Kivu) to assess the effect of rain on lake surface temperature. Data from 4 years were categorised by daily rain amount and total net radiation to show that heavy rain may reduce the end-of-day lake temperature by about 0.3 K. This is important since lake surface temperature may influence local weather on short timescales, but the effect of rain on lake temperature has been little studied or parametrised previously.
Peter O. Zavialov, Alexander S. Izhitskiy, Georgiy B. Kirillin, Valentina M. Khan, Boris V. Konovalov, Peter N. Makkaveev, Vadim V. Pelevin, Nikolay A. Rimskiy-Korsakov, Salmor A. Alymkulov, and Kubanychbek M. Zhumaliev
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6279–6295, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6279-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6279-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reports the results of field surveys conducted in Lake Issyk-Kul in 2015–2017 and compares the present-day data with the available historical records. Our data do not confirm the reports of progressive warming of the deep Issyk-Kul waters as suggested in some previous publications. However, they do indicate a positive trend of salinity in the lake’s interior over the last 3 decades. An important newly found feature is a persistent salinity maximum at depths of 70–120 m.
Inne Vanderkelen, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5509–5525, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5509-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5509-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Lake Victoria is the largest lake in Africa and one of the two major sources of the Nile river. The water level of Lake Victoria is determined by its water balance, consisting of lake precipitation and evaporation, inflow from rivers and lake outflow, controlled by two hydropower dams. Here, we present a water balance model for Lake Victoria, which closely represents the observed lake levels. The model results highlight the sensitivity of the lake level to human operations at the dam.
Inne Vanderkelen, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5527–5549, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5527-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5527-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Lake Victoria is the second largest freshwater lake in the world and one of the major sources of the Nile River, which is controlled by two hydropower dams. In this paper we estimate the potential consequences of climate change for future water level fluctuations of Lake Victoria. Our results reveal that the operating strategies at the dam are the main controlling factors of future lake levels and that regional climate simulations used in the projections encompass large uncertainties.
Martin Rückamp, Ulrike Falk, Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, and Angelika Humbert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1169–1189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1169-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1169-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Sea-level rise associated with changing climate is expected to pose a major challenge for societies. Based on the efforts of COP21 to limit global warming to 2.0 °C by the end of the 21st century (Paris Agreement), we simulate the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea-level change. The projected sea-level rise ranges between 21–38 mm by 2100
and 36–85 mm by 2300. Our results indicate that uncertainties in the projections stem from the underlying climate data.
Maksim Iakunin, Rui Salgado, and Miguel Potes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5191–5210, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5191-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5191-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes and reservoirs can affect local weather regimes but usually it is difficult to trace and assess it. In this work we used the Meso-NH atmospheric model to study the impact of the Alqueva reservoir, one of the largest artificial lakes in western Europe, located in the southeast of Portugal, on meteorological parameters and the formation of a lake breeze system. The magnitude of this impact as well as the intensity of the breeze are shown in the paper.
Pertti Hari, Steffen Noe, Sigrid Dengel, Jan Elbers, Bert Gielen, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Bart Kruijt, Liisa Kulmala, Anders Lindroth, Ivan Mammarella, Tuukka Petäjä, Guy Schurgers, Anni Vanhatalo, Markku Kulmala, and Jaana Bäck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13321–13328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13321-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13321-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The development of eddy-covariance measurements of ecosystem CO2 fluxes began a new era in the field studies of photosynthesis. The interpretation of the very variable CO2 fluxes in evergreen forests has been problematic especially in seasonal transition times. We apply two theoretical needle-level equations and show they can predict photosynthetic CO2 flux between the atmosphere and Scots pine forests. This has strong implications for the interpretation of the global change and boreal forests.
Jason A. Ducker, Christopher D. Holmes, Trevor F. Keenan, Silvano Fares, Allen H. Goldstein, Ivan Mammarella, J. William Munger, and Jordan Schnell
Biogeosciences, 15, 5395–5413, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5395-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5395-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed an accurate method (SynFlux) to estimate ozone deposition and stomatal uptake across 103 flux tower sites (43 US, 60 Europe), where ozone concentrations and fluxes have not been measured. In all, the SynFlux public dataset provides monthly values of ozone dry deposition for 926 site years across a wide array of ecosystems. The SynFlux dataset will promote further applications to ecosystem, air quality, or climate modeling across the geoscience community.
Ronny Meier, Edouard L. Davin, Quentin Lejeune, Mathias Hauser, Yan Li, Brecht Martens, Natalie M. Schultz, Shannon Sterling, and Wim Thiery
Biogeosciences, 15, 4731–4757, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4731-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4731-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Deforestation not only releases carbon dioxide to the atmosphere but also affects local climatic conditions by altering energy fluxes at the land surface and thereby the local temperature. Here, we evaluate the local impact of deforestation in a widely used land surface model. We find that the model reproduces the daytime warming effect of deforestation well. On the other hand, the warmer temperatures observed during night in forests are not present in this model.
Mary E. Whelan, Sinikka T. Lennartz, Teresa E. Gimeno, Richard Wehr, Georg Wohlfahrt, Yuting Wang, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Timothy W. Hilton, Sauveur Belviso, Philippe Peylin, Róisín Commane, Wu Sun, Huilin Chen, Le Kuai, Ivan Mammarella, Kadmiel Maseyk, Max Berkelhammer, King-Fai Li, Dan Yakir, Andrew Zumkehr, Yoko Katayama, Jérôme Ogée, Felix M. Spielmann, Florian Kitz, Bharat Rastogi, Jürgen Kesselmeier, Julia Marshall, Kukka-Maaria Erkkilä, Lisa Wingate, Laura K. Meredith, Wei He, Rüdiger Bunk, Thomas Launois, Timo Vesala, Johan A. Schmidt, Cédric G. Fichot, Ulli Seibt, Scott Saleska, Eric S. Saltzman, Stephen A. Montzka, Joseph A. Berry, and J. Elliott Campbell
Biogeosciences, 15, 3625–3657, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3625-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3625-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Measurements of the trace gas carbonyl sulfide (OCS) are helpful in quantifying photosynthesis at previously unknowable temporal and spatial scales. While CO2 is both consumed and produced within ecosystems, OCS is mostly produced in the oceans or from specific industries, and destroyed in plant leaves in proportion to CO2. This review summarizes the advancements we have made in the understanding of OCS exchange and applications to vital ecosystem water and carbon cycle questions.
Ronja Reese, Torsten Albrecht, Matthias Mengel, Xylar Asay-Davis, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 12, 1969–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Floating ice shelves surround most of Antarctica and ocean-driven melting at their bases is a major reason for its current sea-level contribution. We developed a simple model based on a box model approach that captures the vertical ocean circulation generally present in ice-shelf cavities and allows simulating melt rates in accordance with physical processes beneath the ice. We test the model for all Antarctic ice shelves and find that melt rates and melt patterns agree well with observations.
Sebastian Ostberg, Jacob Schewe, Katelin Childers, and Katja Frieler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 479–496, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-479-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-479-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
It has been shown that regional temperature and precipitation changes in future climate change scenarios often scale quasi-linearly with global mean temperature change (∆GMT). We show that an important consequence of these physical climate changes, namely changes in agricultural crop yields, can also be described in terms of ∆GMT to a large extent. This makes it possible to efficiently estimate future crop yield changes for different climate change scenarios without need for complex models.
Alfonso J. Fernández, Michaël Sicard, Maria J. Costa, Juan L. Guerrero-Rascado, José L. Gómez-Amo, Francisco Molero, Rubén Barragán, Daniele Bortoli, Andrés E. Bedoya-Velásquez, María P. Utrillas, Pedro Salvador, María J. Granados-Muñoz, Miguel Potes, Pablo Ortiz-Amezcua, José A. Martínez-Lozano, Begoña Artíñano, Constantino Muñoz-Porcar, Rui Salgado, Roberto Román, Francesc Rocadenbosch, Vanda Salgueiro, José A. Benavent-Oltra, Alejandro Rodríguez-Gómez, Lucas Alados-Arboledas, Adolfo Comerón, and Manuel Pujadas
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-370, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-370, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Derek P. Tittensor, Tyler D. Eddy, Heike K. Lotze, Eric D. Galbraith, William Cheung, Manuel Barange, Julia L. Blanchard, Laurent Bopp, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Matthias Büchner, Catherine Bulman, David A. Carozza, Villy Christensen, Marta Coll, John P. Dunne, Jose A. Fernandes, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Alistair J. Hobday, Veronika Huber, Simon Jennings, Miranda Jones, Patrick Lehodey, Jason S. Link, Steve Mackinson, Olivier Maury, Susa Niiranen, Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos, Tilla Roy, Jacob Schewe, Yunne-Jai Shin, Tiago Silva, Charles A. Stock, Jeroen Steenbeek, Philip J. Underwood, Jan Volkholz, James R. Watson, and Nicola D. Walker
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1421–1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1421-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial for strengthening future projections. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. We describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project, which brings together the marine ecosystem modelling community to inform long-term projections of marine ecosystems.
Maria Provenzale, Anne Ojala, Jouni Heiskanen, Kukka-Maaria Erkkilä, Ivan Mammarella, Pertti Hari, and Timo Vesala
Biogeosciences, 15, 2021–2032, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2021-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2021-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We extensively tested and refined a direct, high-frequency free-water CO2 measurement method to study the lake net ecosystem productivity. The method was first proposed in 2008, but neglected ever since.
With high-frequency direct methods, we can calculate the lake productivity more precisely, and parameterise its dependency on environmental variables. This helps us expand our knowledge on the carbon cycle in the water, and leads to a better integration of water bodies in carbon budgets.
Philippe Delandmeter, Jonathan Lambrechts, Vincent Legat, Valentin Vallaeys, Jaya Naithani, Wim Thiery, Jean-François Remacle, and Eric Deleersnijder
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1161–1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1161-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1161-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The discontinuous Galerkin (DG) finite element method is well suited for the modelling of three-dimensional flows exhibiting strong density gradients. Here, a vertical adaptive mesh method is developed for DG finite element methods and implemented into SLIM 3D. This technique increases drastically the accuracy of simulations including strong stratification, without affecting the simulation cost. SLIM 3D is then used to simulate the thermocline oscillations of Lake Tanganyika.
Aino Korrensalo, Elisa Männistö, Pavel Alekseychik, Ivan Mammarella, Janne Rinne, Timo Vesala, and Eeva-Stiina Tuittila
Biogeosciences, 15, 1749–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1749-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1749-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We measured methane fluxes of a boreal bog from six different plant community types in 2012–2014. We found only little variation in methane fluxes among plant community types. Peat temperature as well as both leaf area of plant species with air channels and of all vegetation are important factors controlling the fluxes. We also detected negative net fluxes indicating methane consumption each year. Our results can be used to improve the models of peatland methane dynamics under climate change.
Juan Fernando Salazar, Juan Camilo Villegas, Angela María Rendón, Estiven Rodríguez, Isabel Hoyos, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, and Germán Poveda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1735–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1735-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1735-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
River flow regimes are being altered by global change. Understanding the mechanisms behind such alterations is crucial for hydrological prediction. We introduce a novel interpretation of river flow metrics (scaling) that allows any river basin to be classified as regulated or unregulated, and to identify transitions between these states. We propose the
forest reservoirhypothesis to explain how forest loss can force the Amazonian river basins from regulated to unregulated states.
Chunjing Qiu, Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Gerhard Krinner, Shushi Peng, Mika Aurela, Christian Bernhofer, Christian Brümmer, Syndonia Bret-Harte, Housen Chu, Jiquan Chen, Ankur R. Desai, Jiří Dušek, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Thomas Friborg, Mateusz Grygoruk, Sébastien Gogo, Thomas Grünwald, Birger U. Hansen, David Holl, Elyn Humphreys, Miriam Hurkuck, Gerard Kiely, Janina Klatt, Lars Kutzbach, Chloé Largeron, Fatima Laggoun-Défarge, Magnus Lund, Peter M. Lafleur, Xuefei Li, Ivan Mammarella, Lutz Merbold, Mats B. Nilsson, Janusz Olejnik, Mikaell Ottosson-Löfvenius, Walter Oechel, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Norbert Pirk, Olli Peltola, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Daniel Rasse, Janne Rinne, Gaius Shaver, Hans Peter Schmid, Matteo Sottocornola, Rainer Steinbrecher, Torsten Sachs, Marek Urbaniak, Donatella Zona, and Klaudia Ziemblinska
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 497–519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-497-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-497-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Northern peatlands store large amount of soil carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We implemented peatland hydrological and carbon accumulation processes into the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The model was evaluated against EC measurements from 30 northern peatland sites. The model generally well reproduced the spatial gradient and temporal variations in GPP and NEE at these sites. Water table depth was not well predicted but had only small influence on simulated NEE.
Wu Sun, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Kadmiel Maseyk, Huilin Chen, Ivan Mammarella, Timo Vesala, Janne Levula, Helmi Keskinen, and Ulli Seibt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1363–1378, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1363-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1363-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Most soils consume carbonyl sulfide (COS) and CO due to microbial uptake, but whether boreal forest soils act like this is uncertain. We measured growing season soil COS and CO fluxes in a Finnish pine forest. The soil behaved as a consistent and relatively invariant sink of COS and CO. Uptake rates of COS and CO decrease with soil moisture due to diffusion limitation and increase with respiration because of microbial control. Using COS to infer photosynthesis is not affected by soil COS flux.
Tobias Geiger, Katja Frieler, and David N. Bresch
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 185–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-185-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-185-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose a major risk to societies worldwide but very limited data exist on their socioeconomic impacts. Here, we apply a common wind field model to comprehensively and consistently estimate the number of people and the sum of assets exposed by all TCs between 1950 and 2015. This information is crucial to assess changes in societal vulnerabilites, to calibrate TC damage functions, and to make risk data more accessible to non-experts and stakeholders.
Simon Schallhart, Pekka Rantala, Maija K. Kajos, Juho Aalto, Ivan Mammarella, Taina M. Ruuskanen, and Markku Kulmala
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 815–832, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-815-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-815-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) have impact to air quality, human health and climate. We investigated the development of VOC exchange in a boreal forest between April and June 2013. VOC exchange and diversity increased towards summer, but over 75 % of the biogenic net exchange was driven by methanol, monoterpenes and acetone only. The boreal forest emitted less than 0.2 % carbon in form of VOCs in relation to the carbon uptake.
Kukka-Maaria Erkkilä, Anne Ojala, David Bastviken, Tobias Biermann, Jouni J. Heiskanen, Anders Lindroth, Olli Peltola, Miitta Rantakari, Timo Vesala, and Ivan Mammarella
Biogeosciences, 15, 429–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-429-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-429-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Global estimates of freshwater greenhouse gas emissions are usually based on simple gas transfer models that underestimate the emissions. Thus, comparison of different gas transfer models is required for evaluating the uncertainties. This study compares three commonly used methods for estimating greenhouse gas emissions over lakes. We conclude that simple gas transfer models underestimate the emissions and more recent models should be used for global freshwater greenhouse gas emission estimates.
Liesbet Jacobs, Olivier Dewitte, Jean Poesen, John Sekajugo, Adriano Nobile, Mauro Rossi, Wim Thiery, and Matthieu Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 105–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-105-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-105-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
While country-specific, continental and global susceptibility maps are increasingly available, local and regional susceptibility studies remain rare in remote and data-poor settings. Here, we provide a landslide susceptibility assessment for the inhabited region of the Rwenzori Mountains. We find that higher spatial resolutions do not necessarily lead to better models and that models built for local case studies perform better than aggregated susceptibility assessments on the regional scale.
Love Råman Vinnå, Alfred Wüest, Massimiliano Zappa, Gabriel Fink, and Damien Bouffard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 31–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-31-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-31-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Responses of inland waters to climate change vary on global and regional scales. Shifts in river discharge regimes act as positive and negative feedbacks in influencing water temperature. The extent of this effect on warming is controlled by the change in river discharge and lake hydraulic residence time. A shift of deep penetrating river intrusions from summer towards winter can potentially counteract the otherwise negative climate effects on deep-water oxygen content.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Jacob Schewe, Lila Warszawski, Fang Zhao, Louise Chini, Sebastien Denvil, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, Kate Halladay, George Hurtt, Matthias Mengel, Daisuke Murakami, Sebastian Ostberg, Alexander Popp, Riccardo Riva, Miodrag Stevanovic, Tatsuo Suzuki, Jan Volkholz, Eleanor Burke, Philippe Ciais, Kristie Ebi, Tyler D. Eddy, Joshua Elliott, Eric Galbraith, Simon N. Gosling, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Jochen Hinkel, Christian Hof, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Valentina Krysanova, Rafael Marcé, Hannes Müller Schmied, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Don Pierson, Derek P. Tittensor, Robert Vautard, Michelle van Vliet, Matthias F. Biber, Richard A. Betts, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Delphine Deryng, Steve Frolking, Chris D. Jones, Heike K. Lotze, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Ritvik Sahajpal, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, and Yoshiki Yamagata
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the simulation scenario design for the next phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is designed to facilitate a contribution to the scientific basis for the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming. ISIMIP brings together over 80 climate-impact models, covering impacts on hydrology, biomes, forests, heat-related mortality, permafrost, tropical cyclones, fisheries, agiculture, energy, and coastal infrastructure.
Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Juan F. Salazar, and Juan Camilo Villegas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-550, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-550, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Global changes in forest cover have been related to major scientific and social challenges. There are important uncertainties about the potential effects of ongoing forest loss on water cycle. Here we analysis the division of rainfall in evaporation and runoff (water in rivers) and the presence or absence of forest in 22 large regions. We found that in less forested regions, evaporation dominates the division while in more forested regions rainfall is equally divided into evaporation and runoff.
Yao Gao, Tiina Markkanen, Mika Aurela, Ivan Mammarella, Tea Thum, Aki Tsuruta, Huiyi Yang, and Tuula Aalto
Biogeosciences, 14, 4409–4422, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4409-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4409-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the response of water use efficiency (WUE) to summer drought in a boreal Scots pine forest (Pinus sylvestris) on the daily time scale mainly using EC flux data from the Hyytiälä (southern Finland) flux site. Simulation results from the JSBACH land surface model were also evaluated against the observed results. The performance of three WUE metrics at the ecosystem level (EWUE, IWUE, and uWUE) during the severe summer drought were studied and showed different results.
Pengfei Han, Ning Zeng, Fang Zhao, and Xiaohui Lin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 875–887, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-875-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-875-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Global cropland net primary production has tripled over the last 50 years. However, long-term comparisons across global croplands are scarce due to the lack of detailed management data. Here, we conducted a simulation study of global cropland production from 1961 to 2010 using the VEGAS model. We modified the key parameter associated with the Green Revolution. The updated results decreased the RMSE by ~ 45 %, suggesting it is important to calibrate key parameters on regional scales.
Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Kadmiel Maseyk, Ulli Seibt, Wu Sun, Timo Vesala, Ivan Mammarella, Pasi Kolari, Juho Aalto, Alessandro Franchin, Roberta Vecchi, Gianluigi Valli, and Huilin Chen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11453–11465, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11453-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11453-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon cycle studies rely on the accuracy of models to estimate the amount of CO2 being taken up by vegetation. The gas carbonyl sulfide (COS) can serve as a tool to estimate the vegetative CO2 uptake by scaling the ecosystem uptake of COS to that of CO2. Here we investigate the nighttime fluxes of COS. The relationships found in this study will aid in implementing nighttime COS uptake in models, which is key to obtain accurate estimates of vegetative CO2 uptake with the use of COS.
Adrien Gaudard, Robert Schwefel, Love Råman Vinnå, Martin Schmid, Alfred Wüest, and Damien Bouffard
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3411–3423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3411-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3411-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The study of lakes often uses numerical models to reproduce the processes occurring in nature as accurately as possible. Due to the complexity of natural systems, all numerical models need to leave aside or simplify many of the relevant processes. In this work, we improve the modelling of the impact of wind on the internal currents in deep lakes. This improves the reproduction of deep mixing, which influences the concentrations of oxygen and nutrients, with biological and chemical consequences.
Aleksandr F. Sabrekov, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Mikhail V. Glagolev, Irina E. Terentieva, Victor M. Stepanenko, Oleg R. Kotsyurbenko, Shamil S. Maksyutov, and Oleg S. Pokrovsky
Biogeosciences, 14, 3715–3742, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3715-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3715-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Boreal lakes and wetland ponds have pronounced impacts on the global methane cycle. During field campaigns to West Siberian lakes, strong variations in the methane flux on both local and regional scales were observed, with significant emissions from southern taiga lakes. A newly constructed process-based model helps reveal what controls this variability and on what spatial scales. Our results provide insights into the emissions and possible ways to significantly improve global carbon models.
Pavel Alekseychik, Ivan Mammarella, Dmitry Karpov, Sigrid Dengel, Irina Terentieva, Alexander Sabrekov, Mikhail Glagolev, and Elena Lapshina
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9333–9345, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9333-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9333-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
West Siberian peatlands occupy a large fraction of land area in the region, and yet little is known about their interaction with the atmosphere. We took the first measurements of CO2 and energy surface balances over a typical bog of West Siberian middle taiga, in the vicinity of the Mukhrino field station (Khanty–Mansiysk). The May–August study in a wet year (2015) revealed a relatively large photosynthetic sink of CO2 that was close to the high end of estimates at bog sites elsewhere.
Thomas Steinsberger, Martin Schmid, Alfred Wüest, Robert Schwefel, Bernhard Wehrli, and Beat Müller
Biogeosciences, 14, 3275–3285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3275-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3275-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Based on a broad dataset of lake sediment analysis and porewater measurements from various Swiss lakes, this paper argues that the accumulation of organic carbon in the sediment is one of the main driving forces for the generation of reduced substances such as methane and ammonia. These substances significantly contribute to the hypolimnetic oxygen consumption. The relationships presented help to evaluate the scale of the flux of reduced substances where no direct measurements are available.
Jacob Schewe and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 495–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-495-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-495-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Monsoon systems have undergone abrupt changes in past climates, and theoretical considerations show that threshold behavior can follow from the internal dynamics of monsoons. So far, however, the possibility of abrupt changes has not been explored for modern monsoon systems. We analyze state-of-the-art climate model simulations and show that some models project abrupt changes in Sahel rainfall in response to a dynamic shift in the West African monsoon under 21st century climate change.
Alexander Nauels, Malte Meinshausen, Matthias Mengel, Katja Lorbacher, and Tom M. L. Wigley
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2495–2524, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2495-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2495-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The MAGICC sea level model projects global sea level rise by emulating process-based estimates for all major sea level drivers and applying them to available climate scenarios and their extensions to 2300. The MAGICC sea level projections are well within the ranges of the fifth IPCC assessment report. Due to its efficient structure, this emulator is a powerful tool for exploring sea level uncertainties and investigating sea level responses for a wide range of climate mitigation pathways.
Georgiy Kirillin, Lijuan Wen, and Tom Shatwell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1895–1909, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1895-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1895-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We report a first description of the seasonal temperature, mixing, and ice regime in the two largest freshwater lakes of the Tibetan Plateau. We perform a validation of lake model FLake for the parameterization of the Tibetan lake system in regional climate models and present evidence of the absent warming trend in the Tibetan lakes despite significant atmospheric warming. The reason for this unexpected behavior is the significant decrease in solar radiation at the surface.
Antti-Jussi Kieloaho, Mari Pihlatie, Samuli Launiainen, Markku Kulmala, Marja-Liisa Riekkola, Jevgeni Parshintsev, Ivan Mammarella, Timo Vesala, and Jussi Heinonsalo
Biogeosciences, 14, 1075–1091, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1075-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1075-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The alkylamines are important precursors in secondary aerosol formation in boreal forests. We quantified alkylamine concentrations in fungal species present in boreal forests in order to estimate soil as a source of atmospheric alkylamines. Based on our knowledge we estimated possible soil–atmosphere exchange of these compounds. The results shows that the boreal forest soil could act as a source of alkylamines depending on environmental conditions and studied compound.
Putian Zhou, Laurens Ganzeveld, Üllar Rannik, Luxi Zhou, Rosa Gierens, Ditte Taipale, Ivan Mammarella, and Michael Boy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1361–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1361-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1361-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We implemented a multi-layer O3 dry deposition model in a 1-D model SOSAA to simulate O3 flux and concentration within and above a boreal forest at SMEAR II in Hyytiälä, Finland, in August 2010. The results showed that when RH > 70 % the O3 uptake on leaf wet skin was ~ 51 % to the total deposition at night and ~ 19 % at daytime. The sub-canopy contribution below 4.2 m was ~ 38 % at daytime. The averaged daily chemical contribution to total O3 alteration inside the canopy was less than 10 %.
Aino Korrensalo, Pavel Alekseychik, Tomáš Hájek, Janne Rinne, Timo Vesala, Lauri Mehtätalo, Ivan Mammarella, and Eeva-Stiina Tuittila
Biogeosciences, 14, 257–269, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-257-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-257-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Photosynthetic parameters of peatland plant species were measured over one growing season in an ombrotrophic bog. Based on these measurements, ecosystem-level photosynthesis was calculated for the whole growing season and compared with an estimate derived from micrometeorological measurements. These two estimates corresponded well. Species with low areal cover at the site but high photosynthetic efficiency appeared to be potentially important for the ecosystem-level carbon balance.
Jarmo Mäkelä, Jouni Susiluoto, Tiina Markkanen, Mika Aurela, Heikki Järvinen, Ivan Mammarella, Stefan Hagemann, and Tuula Aalto
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 23, 447–465, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-447-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-447-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The land-based hydrological cycle is one of the key processes controlling the growth and wilting of plants and the amount of carbon vegetation can assimilate. Recent studies have shown that many land surface models have biases in this area. We optimized parameters in one such model (JSBACH) and were able to enhance the model performance in many respects, but the response to drought remained unaffected. Further studies into this aspect should include alternative stomatal conductance formulations.
Üllar Rannik, Olli Peltola, and Ivan Mammarella
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 5163–5181, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5163-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5163-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We review available methods for the random error estimation of turbulent fluxes that are widely used by the flux community. Flux errors are evaluated theoretically as well as via numerical calculations by using measured and simulated records. We recommend two flux random errors with clear physical meaning: the total error resulting from stochastic nature of turbulence, well approximated by the method of Finkelstein and Sims (2001), and the error of the flux due to the instrumental noise.
Zeli Tan, Qianlai Zhuang, Daven K. Henze, Christian Frankenberg, Ed Dlugokencky, Colm Sweeney, Alexander J. Turner, Motoki Sasakawa, and Toshinobu Machida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12649–12666, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12649-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12649-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Methane emissions from the pan-Arctic could be important in understanding the global carbon cycle but are still poorly constrained to date. This study demonstrated that satellite retrievals can be used to reduce the uncertainty of the estimates of these emissions. We also provided additional evidence for the existence of large methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes in the Siberian yedoma permafrost region. We found that biogeochemical models should be improved for better estimates.
Ivan Mammarella, Olli Peltola, Annika Nordbo, Leena Järvi, and Üllar Rannik
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 4915–4933, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-4915-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-4915-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we have performed an inter-comparison between EddyUH and EddyPro, two public and commonly used software packages for eddy covariance data processing and calculation. The aims are to estimate the flux uncertainty due to the use of different software packages, and to assess the most critical processing steps, determining the largest deviations in the calculated fluxes. We focus not only on water vapour and carbon dioxide fluxes, but also on the methane flux.
Mari Pihlatie, Üllar Rannik, Sami Haapanala, Olli Peltola, Narasinha Shurpali, Pertti J. Martikainen, Saara Lind, Niina Hyvönen, Perttu Virkajärvi, Mark Zahniser, and Ivan Mammarella
Biogeosciences, 13, 5471–5485, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5471-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5471-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The sources and sinks of carbon monoxide (CO) in the biosphere are poorly understood. We report the first continuous data series of CO fluxes measured by eddy covariance method in an agricultural bioenergy crop. The CO fluxes were seasonally and diurnally variable demonstrating the parallel consumption and production processes. Radiation was the main driver of CO emissions, and the eddy covariance method was demonstrated as suitable for linking short-term flux dynamics to environmental drivers.
Alex C. Ruane, Claas Teichmann, Nigel W. Arnell, Timothy R. Carter, Kristie L. Ebi, Katja Frieler, Clare M. Goodess, Bruce Hewitson, Radley Horton, R. Sari Kovats, Heike K. Lotze, Linda O. Mearns, Antonio Navarra, Dennis S. Ojima, Keywan Riahi, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Matthias Themessl, and Katharine Vincent
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3493–3515, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3493-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3493-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation, and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for CMIP6 was created to improve communications between communities that apply climate model output for societal benefit and the climate model centers. This manuscript describes the establishment of the VIACS Advisory Board as a coherent avenue for communication utilizing leading networks, experts, and programs; results of initial interactions during the development of CMIP6; and its potential next activities.
Fang Zhao, Ning Zeng, Ghassem Asrar, Pierre Friedlingstein, Akihiko Ito, Atul Jain, Eugenia Kalnay, Etsushi Kato, Charles D. Koven, Ben Poulter, Rashid Rafique, Stephen Sitch, Shijie Shu, Beni Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, and Sonke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 13, 5121–5137, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The increasing seasonality of atmospheric CO2 is strongly linked with enhanced land vegetation activities in the last 5 decades, for which the importance of increasing CO2, climate and land use/cover change was evaluated in single model studies (Zeng et al., 2014; Forkel et al., 2016). Here we examine the relative importance of these factors in multiple models. Our results highlight models can show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying regional dynamics.
Andrey Glazunov, Üllar Rannik, Victor Stepanenko, Vasily Lykosov, Mikko Auvinen, Timo Vesala, and Ivan Mammarella
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2925–2949, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2925-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2925-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Large-eddy simulation (LES) and Lagrangian stochastic modeling of passive particle dispersion were applied to the scalar flux footprint determination in the stable atmospheric boundary layer. The footprint functions obtained in LES were compared with the functions calculated with the use of first-order single-particle Lagrangian stochastic models (LSMs) and zeroth-order Lagrangian stochastic models - the random displacement models (RDMs).
Damien Bouffard and Marie-Elodie Perga
Biogeosciences, 13, 3573–3584, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3573-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3573-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This survey of an exceptional flood over Lake Geneva challenges the long-standing hypothesis that dense, particle-loaded and oxygenated rivers plunging into lakes necessarily contribute to deep-oxygen replenishment. We identified some river intrusions as hot spots for oxygen consumption, where inputs of fresh river-borne organic matter reactivate the respiration of more refractory lacustrine organic matter in a process referred to as "priming effect".
Victor Stepanenko, Ivan Mammarella, Anne Ojala, Heli Miettinen, Vasily Lykosov, and Timo Vesala
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1977–2006, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1977-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1977-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A 1-D lake model is presented, reproducing temperature, oxygen, carbon dioxide and methane. All prognostic variables are treated in unified manner via generic 1-D transport equation. The model is validated vs. comprehensive observational data set gathered at Kuivajärvi Lake (Finland). Our results suggest that a gas transfer through thermocline under intense seiche motions is a bottleneck in quantifying greenhouse gas dynamics in dimictic lakes, calling for further research.
Sebastiano Piccolroaz, Michele Di Lazzaro, Antonio Zarlenga, Bruno Majone, Alberto Bellin, and Aldo Fiori
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2047–2061, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2047-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2047-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present HYPERstream, an innovative, parsimonious, and computationally efficient streamflow routing scheme based on the width function instantaneous unit hydrograph theory. HYPERstream is designed to be easily coupled with climate models and to preserve the geomorphological dispersion of the river network, irrespective of the model grid size. This makes HYPERstream well suited for multi-scale applications (from catchment up to continental scale) and to investigate extreme events (e.g. floods).
Madeline R. Magee, Chin H. Wu, Dale M. Robertson, Richard C. Lathrop, and David P. Hamilton
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1681–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1681-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1681-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper employs a one-dimensional hydrodynamic ice model to simulate ice cover and thermal structure of dimictic Lake Mendota, WI, USA, over a continuous 104-year period (1911–2014) with the purpose of better understanding how the changing climate will affect lakes. It is shown that air temperature and wind speed changes have occurred in stages and ice cover and lake thermal structure have responded in a nonlinear way to these changes.
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Tabea K. Lissner, Erich M. Fischer, Jan Wohland, Mahé Perrette, Antonius Golly, Joeri Rogelj, Katelin Childers, Jacob Schewe, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel, William Hare, and Michiel Schaeffer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 327–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-327-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-327-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present for the first time a comprehensive assessment of key climate impacts for the policy relevant warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We report substantial impact differences in intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, regional water availability and agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. The increase in climate impacts is particularly pronounced in tropical and sub-tropical regions.
K. Frieler, M. Mengel, and A. Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 203–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-203-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-203-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level will continue to rise for centuries. We investigate the option of delaying sea-level rise by pumping ocean water onto Antarctica. Due to wave propagation ice is discharged much faster back into the ocean than expected from pure advection. A millennium-scale storage of > 80 % of the additional ice requires a distance of > 700 km from the coastline. The pumping energy required to elevate ocean water to mitigate a sea-level rise of 3 mm yr−1 exceeds 7 % of current global primary energy supply.
Üllar Rannik, Luxi Zhou, Putian Zhou, Rosa Gierens, Ivan Mammarella, Andrey Sogachev, and Michael Boy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3145–3160, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3145-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3145-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) model coupled with detailed atmospheric chemistry and aerosol dynamical model was used to quantify the role of aerosol and ABL dynamics in the vertical transport of aerosols at a pine forest site in southern Finland. Simulations showed that under dynamical conditions the particle fluxes above canopy can significantly deviate from the dry deposition into the canopy. The deviation can be systematic for certain particle sizes over a period of several days.
Saara E. Lind, Narasinha J. Shurpali, Olli Peltola, Ivan Mammarella, Niina Hyvönen, Marja Maljanen, Mari Räty, Perttu Virkajärvi, and Pertti J. Martikainen
Biogeosciences, 13, 1255–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1255-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1255-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We showed that the reed canary grass (RCG) was environmentally friendly from the CO2 balance point of view when cultivated on this mineral soil. When compared to the earlier findings on the same crop on organic soil site, the capacity of the crop to withdraw atmospheric CO2 was even stronger on the present mineral soil site than that on the organic soil site. For full estimation of the climatic impacts of this bioenergy system, a life cycle assessment will be needed.
A. Collalti, S. Marconi, A. Ibrom, C. Trotta, A. Anav, E. D'Andrea, G. Matteucci, L. Montagnani, B. Gielen, I. Mammarella, T. Grünwald, A. Knohl, F. Berninger, Y. Zhao, R. Valentini, and M. Santini
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 479–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-479-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-479-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates the performances of the new version (v.5.1) of 3D-CMCC Forest Ecosystem Model in simulating gross primary productivity (GPP), against eddy covariance GPP data for 10 FLUXNET forest sites across Europe. The model consistently reproduces both in timing and in magnitude daily and monthly GPP variability across all sites, with the exception of the two Mediterranean sites. Inclusion of forest structure within simulation ameliorate in some cases the model output.
Y. Gao, T. Markkanen, T. Thum, M. Aurela, A. Lohila, I. Mammarella, M. Kämäräinen, S. Hagemann, and T. Aalto
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 175–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-175-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-175-2016, 2016
J. Boike, C. Georgi, G. Kirilin, S. Muster, K. Abramova, I. Fedorova, A. Chetverova, M. Grigoriev, N. Bornemann, and M. Langer
Biogeosciences, 12, 5941–5965, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5941-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5941-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We show that lakes in northern Siberia are very efficient with respect to energy absorption and mixing using measurements as well as numerical modeling. We show that (i) the lakes receive substantial energy for warming from net short-wave radiation; (ii) convective mixing occurs beneath the ice cover, follow beneath the ice cover, following ice break-up, summer, and fall (iii) modeling suggests that the annual mean net heat flux across the bottom sediment boundary is approximately zero.
K. Frieler, A. Levermann, J. Elliott, J. Heinke, A. Arneth, M. F. P. Bierkens, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, D. Deryng, P. Döll, P. Falloon, B. Fekete, C. Folberth, A. D. Friend, C. Gellhorn, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, M. Lomas, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, K. Neumann, T. Oki, R. Pavlick, A. C. Ruane, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, T. Stacke, E. Stehfest, Q. Tang, D. Wisser, V. Huber, F. Piontek, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, H. Lotze-Campen, and H. J. Schellnhuber
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015
R. Aguilera, R. Marcé, and S. Sabater
Biogeosciences, 12, 4085–4098, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4085-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4085-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrate and dissolved phosphate concentration time series (1980--2011) from 50 sampling stations across a large Mediterranean river basin were analyzed using dynamic factor analysis and complementary methods in order to disentangle the role of hydrology, land-use practices, and global climatic phenomena on nitrate and phosphate patterns, with the aim of understanding how the different aspects of global change affected nutrient dynamics in the basin.
F. Minunno, M. Peltoniemi, S. Launiainen, M. Aurela, A. Lindroth, A. Lohila, I. Mammarella, K. Minkkinen, and A. Mäkelä
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-5089-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-5089-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
G. Kirillin, M. S. Lorang, T. C. Lippmann, C. C. Gotschalk, and S. Schimmelpfennig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2605–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2605-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2605-2015, 2015
D. Zak, H. Reuter, J. Augustin, T. Shatwell, M. Barth, J. Gelbrecht, and R. J. McInnes
Biogeosciences, 12, 2455–2468, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2455-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2455-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, the CO2 and CH4 production due to the subaqueous decomposition of the five most abundant plant species, which are considered to be representative of different rewetting stages, will be presented. Beside continuous gas flux measurements, bulk chemical analyses of plant tissue were performed to gain insights into changing litter characteristics. With respect to temporal vegetation shifts in rewetted fens, the results provide new insights into the climate effect of these ecosystems.
I. V. Gorodetskaya, S. Kneifel, M. Maahn, K. Van Tricht, W. Thiery, J. H. Schween, A. Mangold, S. Crewell, and N. P. M. Van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 9, 285–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-285-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-285-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper presents a new cloud-precipitation-meteorological observatory established in the escarpment zone of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. The site is characterised by bimodal cloud occurrence (clear sky or overcast) with liquid-containing clouds occurring 20% of the cloudy periods. Local surface mass balance strongly depends on rare intense snowfall events. A substantial part of the accumulated snow is removed by surface and drifting snow sublimation and wind-driven snow erosion.
Ü. Rannik, S. Haapanala, N. J. Shurpali, I. Mammarella, S. Lind, N. Hyvönen, O. Peltola, M. Zahniser, P. J. Martikainen, and T. Vesala
Biogeosciences, 12, 415–432, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-415-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-415-2015, 2015
A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann, S. Nowicki, J. L. Fastook, K. Frieler, R. Greve, H. H. Hellmer, M. A. Martin, M. Meinshausen, M. Mengel, A. J. Payne, D. Pollard, T. Sato, R. Timmermann, W. L. Wang, and R. A. Bindschadler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 271–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, 2014
O. Peltola, A. Hensen, C. Helfter, L. Belelli Marchesini, F. C. Bosveld, W. C. M. van den Bulk, J. A. Elbers, S. Haapanala, J. Holst, T. Laurila, A. Lindroth, E. Nemitz, T. Röckmann, A. T. Vermeulen, and I. Mammarella
Biogeosciences, 11, 3163–3186, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3163-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3163-2014, 2014
Y. Li, G. Gal, V. Makler-Pick, A. M. Waite, L. C. Bruce, and M. R. Hipsey
Biogeosciences, 11, 2939–2960, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2939-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2939-2014, 2014
R. Doble, R. Crosbie, L. Peeters, K. Joehnk, and C. Ticehurst
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1273–1288, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1273-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1273-2014, 2014
W. Thiery, A. Martynov, F. Darchambeau, J.-P. Descy, P.-D. Plisnier, L. Sushama, and N. P. M. van Lipzig
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 317–337, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-317-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-317-2014, 2014
J. Heinke, S. Ostberg, S. Schaphoff, K. Frieler, C. Müller, D. Gerten, M. Meinshausen, and W. Lucht
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1689–1703, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1689-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1689-2013, 2013
V. M. Stepanenko, A. Martynov, K. D. Jöhnk, Z. M. Subin, M. Perroud, X. Fang, F. Beyrich, D. Mironov, and S. Goyette
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1337–1352, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1337-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1337-2013, 2013
S. Piccolroaz, M. Toffolon, and B. Majone
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3323–3338, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3323-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3323-2013, 2013
S. Hempel, K. Frieler, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, and F. Piontek
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 219–236, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-219-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-219-2013, 2013
V. Masson, P. Le Moigne, E. Martin, S. Faroux, A. Alias, R. Alkama, S. Belamari, A. Barbu, A. Boone, F. Bouyssel, P. Brousseau, E. Brun, J.-C. Calvet, D. Carrer, B. Decharme, C. Delire, S. Donier, K. Essaouini, A.-L. Gibelin, H. Giordani, F. Habets, M. Jidane, G. Kerdraon, E. Kourzeneva, M. Lafaysse, S. Lafont, C. Lebeaupin Brossier, A. Lemonsu, J.-F. Mahfouf, P. Marguinaud, M. Mokhtari, S. Morin, G. Pigeon, R. Salgado, Y. Seity, F. Taillefer, G. Tanguy, P. Tulet, B. Vincendon, V. Vionnet, and A. Voldoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 929–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-929-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-929-2013, 2013
O. Peltola, I. Mammarella, S. Haapanala, G. Burba, and T. Vesala
Biogeosciences, 10, 3749–3765, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3749-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3749-2013, 2013
M. Perrette, F. Landerer, R. Riva, K. Frieler, and M. Meinshausen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 11–29, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-11-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-11-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Hydrology
DECIPHeR-GW v1: a coupled hydrological model with improved representation of surface–groundwater interactions
Wastewater matters: incorporating wastewater treatment and reuse into a process-based hydrological model (CWatM v1.08)
A reach-integrated hydraulic modelling approach for large-scale and real-time inundation mapping
Graphical representation of global water models
LM4-SHARC v1.0: resolving the catchment-scale soil–hillslope aquifer–river continuum for the GFDL Earth system modeling framework
SWAT+MODFLOW: A New Hydrologic Model for Simulating Surface-Subsurface Flow in Managed Watersheds
Selecting a conceptual hydrological model using Bayes' factors computed with replica-exchange Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and thermodynamic integration
The Water Table Model (WTM) (v2.0.1): coupled groundwater and dynamic lake modelling
Modelling rainfall with a Bartlett–Lewis process: pyBL (v1.0.0), a Python software package and an application with short records
Virtual Joint Field Campaign: a framework of synthetic landscapes to assess multiscale measurement methods of water storage
SERGHEI v2.0: introducing a performance-portable, high-performance, three-dimensional variably saturated subsurface flow solver (SERGHEI-RE)
A component based modular treatment of the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum: the GEOSPACE framework (v.1.2.9)
The global water resources and use model WaterGAP v2.2e: description and evaluation of modifications and new features
Generalised drought index: a novel multi-scale daily approach for drought assessment
Development and performance of a high-resolution surface wave and storm surge forecast model: application to a large lake
Deep dive into hydrologic simulations at global scale: harnessing the power of deep learning and physics-informed differentiable models (δHBV-globe1.0-hydroDL)
PyEt v1.3.1: a Python package for the estimation of potential evapotranspiration
Prediction of hysteretic matric potential dynamics using artificial intelligence: application of autoencoder neural networks
Regionalization in global hydrological models and its impact on runoff simulations: a case study using WaterGAP3 (v 1.0.0)
STORM v.2: A simple, stochastic rainfall model for exploring the impacts of climate and climate change at and near the land surface in gauged watersheds
Fluvial flood inundation and socio-economic impact model based on open data
RoGeR v3.0.5 – a process-based hydrological toolbox model in Python
Coupling a large-scale glacier and hydrological model (OGGM v1.5.3 and CWatM V1.08) – towards an improved representation of mountain water resources in global assessments
An open-source refactoring of the Canadian Small Lakes Model for estimates of evaporation from medium-sized reservoirs
EvalHyd v0.1.2: a polyglot tool for the evaluation of deterministic and probabilistic streamflow predictions
Modelling water quantity and quality for integrated water cycle management with the Water Systems Integrated Modelling framework (WSIMOD) software
HGS-PDAF (version 1.0): a modular data assimilation framework for an integrated surface and subsurface hydrological model
Wflow_sbm v0.7.3, a spatially distributed hydrological model: from global data to local applications
Reservoir Assessment Tool version 3.0: a scalable and user-friendly software platform to mobilize the global water management community
HydroFATE (v1): a high-resolution contaminant fate model for the global river system
Validation of a new global irrigation scheme in the land surface model ORCHIDEE v2.2
GPEP v1.0: the Geospatial Probabilistic Estimation Package to support Earth science applications
GEMS v1.0: Generalizable Empirical Model of Snow Accumulation and Melt, based on daily snow mass changes in response to climate and topographic drivers
mesas.py v1.0: a flexible Python package for modeling solute transport and transit times using StorAge Selection functions
rSHUD v2.0: advancing the Simulator for Hydrologic Unstructured Domains and unstructured hydrological modeling in the R environment
GLOBGM v1.0: a parallel implementation of a 30 arcsec PCR-GLOBWB-MODFLOW global-scale groundwater model
Development of inter-grid-cell lateral unsaturated and saturated flow model in the E3SM Land Model (v2.0)
pyESDv1.0.1: an open-source Python framework for empirical-statistical downscaling of climate information
Representing the impact of Rhizophora mangroves on flow in a hydrodynamic model (COAWST_rh v1.0): the importance of three-dimensional root system structures
Dynamically weighted ensemble of geoscientific models via automated machine-learning-based classification
Enhancing the representation of water management in global hydrological models
NEOPRENE v1.0.1: a Python library for generating spatial rainfall based on the Neyman–Scott process
Uncertainty estimation for a new exponential-filter-based long-term root-zone soil moisture dataset from Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) surface observations
Validating the Nernst–Planck transport model under reaction-driven flow conditions using RetroPy v1.0
DynQual v1.0: a high-resolution global surface water quality model
Data space inversion for efficient uncertainty quantification using an integrated surface and sub-surface hydrologic model
Simulation of crop yield using the global hydrological model H08 (crp.v1)
How is a global sensitivity analysis of a catchment-scale, distributed pesticide transfer model performed? Application to the PESHMELBA model
iHydroSlide3D v1.0: an advanced hydrological–geotechnical model for hydrological simulation and three-dimensional landslide prediction
GEB v0.1: a large-scale agent-based socio-hydrological model – simulating 10 million individual farming households in a fully distributed hydrological model
Yanchen Zheng, Gemma Coxon, Mostaquimur Rahman, Ross Woods, Saskia Salwey, Youtong Rong, and Doris E. Wendt
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4247–4271, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4247-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4247-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater is vital for people and ecosystems, but most physical models lack the representation of surface–groundwater interactions, leading to inaccurate streamflow predictions in groundwater-rich areas. This study presents DECIPHeR-GW v1, which links surface and groundwater systems to improve predictions of streamflow and groundwater levels. Tested across England and Wales, DECIPHeR-GW shows high accuracy, especially in southeast England, making it a valuable tool for large-scale water management.
Dor Fridman, Mikhail Smilovic, Peter Burek, Sylvia Tramberend, and Taher Kahil
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3735–3754, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3735-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3735-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Global hydrological models are applied at high spatial resolutions to quantify water availability and evaluate water scarcity mitigation options. Yet, they mainly oversee critical local processes. This paper presents and demonstrates the inclusion of wastewater treatment and reuse into a global hydrological model. As a result, model performance improves, and models consider treated wastewater as an alternative water source.
Robert Chlumsky, James R. Craig, and Bryan A. Tolson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3387–3403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3387-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3387-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We aim to improve mapping of floods and present a new method for hydraulic modelling that uses a combination of novel geospatial analysis and existing hydraulic modelling approaches. This method is wrapped into a modelling software called Blackbird. We compared Blackbird with two other existing options for flood mapping and found that the Blackbird model outperformed both. The Blackbird model has the potential to support real-time and large-scale flood mapping applications in the future.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Simon Newland Gosling, Marlo Garnsworthy, Laura Müller, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Atiq Kainan Ahmed, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Julien Boulange, Peter Burek, Jinfeng Chang, He Chen, Lukas Gudmundsson, Manolis Grillakis, Luca Guillaumot, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Rohini Kumar, Guoyong Leng, Junguo Liu, Xingcai Liu, Inga Menke, Vimal Mishra, Yadu Pokhrel, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, Yusuke Satoh, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Mikhail Smilovic, Tobias Stacke, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Wim Thiery, Athanasios Tsilimigkras, Yoshihide Wada, Niko Wanders, and Tokuta Yokohata
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2409–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Global water models contribute to the evaluation of important natural and societal issues but are – as all models – simplified representation of reality. So, there are many ways to calculate the water fluxes and storages. This paper presents a visualization of 16 global water models using a standardized visualization and the pathway towards this common understanding. Next to academic education purposes, we envisage that these diagrams will help researchers, model developers, and data users.
Minki Hong, Nathaniel Chaney, Sergey Malyshev, Enrico Zorzetto, Anthony Preucil, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2275–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2275-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2275-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows the significance of groundwater in resolving the coupled terrestrial water–energy cycle. LM4-SHARC (soil–hillslope aquifer–river continuum) describes the hillslope groundwater using its emergent properties, yielding noticeable improvements in soil moisture/temperature and groundwater discharge predictions. The implications of groundwater-mediated hydrologic interactions between hillslopes and streams need further exploration in the Earth system modeling community.
Ryan Bailey, Salam Abbas, Jeffrey Arnold, and Michael White
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-300, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-300, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Water managers often make use of computer models to assess a region’s water supply under future conditions and management scenarios. This article introduces a new computer model that combines a land surface model (SWAT+) and a groundwater model (MODFLOW) and shows how it can be applied to managed, irrigated watersheds. This new model can be used for regions that rely on both surface water and groundwater for drinking water, agriculture, and industry.
Damian N. Mingo, Remko Nijzink, Christophe Ley, and Jack S. Hale
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1709–1736, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1709-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1709-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrologists are often faced with selecting amongst a set of competing models with different numbers of parameters and ability to fit available data. Bayes’ factor is a tool that can be used to compare models; however, it is very difficult to compute Bayes' factor numerically. In our paper, we explore and develop highly efficient algorithms for computing Bayes’ factor of hydrological systems, which will introduce this useful tool for selecting models into everyday hydrological practice.
Kerry L. Callaghan, Andrew D. Wickert, Richard Barnes, and Jacqueline Austermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1463–1486, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1463-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1463-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present the Water Table Model (WTM), a new model for simulating groundwater and lake levels at continental scales over millennia. The WTM enables long-term evaluations of water-table changes. As a proof of concept, we simulate the North American water table for the present and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), showing that North America held more groundwater and lake water during the LGM than it does today – enough to lower sea levels by 14.98 cm. The open-source code is available on GitHub.
Chi-Ling Wei, Pei-Chun Chen, Chien-Yu Tseng, Ting-Yu Dai, Yun-Ting Ho, Ching-Chun Chou, Christian Onof, and Li-Pen Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1357–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1357-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1357-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
pyBL is an open-source package for generating realistic rainfall time series based on the Bartlett–Lewis (BL) model. It can preserve not only standard but also extreme rainfall statistics across various timescales. Notably, compared to traditional frequency analysis methods, the BL model requires only half the record length (or even shorter) to achieve similar consistency in estimating sub-hourly rainfall extremes. This makes it a valuable tool for modelling rainfall extremes with short records.
Till Francke, Cosimo Brogi, Alby Duarte Rocha, Michael Förster, Maik Heistermann, Markus Köhli, Daniel Rasche, Marvin Reich, Paul Schattan, Lena Scheiffele, and Martin Schrön
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 819–842, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-819-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-819-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Multiple methods for measuring soil moisture beyond the point scale exist. Their validation is generally hindered by not knowing the truth. We propose a virtual framework in which this truth is fully known and the sensor observations for cosmic ray neutron sensing, remote sensing, and hydrogravimetry are simulated. This allows for the rigorous testing of these virtual sensors to understand their effectiveness and limitations.
Zhi Li, Gregor Rickert, Na Zheng, Zhibo Zhang, Ilhan Özgen-Xian, and Daniel Caviedes-Voullième
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 547–562, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-547-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-547-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce SERGHEI-RE, a 3D subsurface flow simulator with performance-portable parallel computing capabilities. SERGHEI-RE performs effectively on various computational devices: from personal computers to advanced clusters. It allows users to solve flow equations with multiple numerical schemes, making it adaptable to various hydrological scenarios. Testing results show its accuracy and performance, confirming that SERGHEI-RE is a powerful tool for hydrological research.
Concetta D'Amato, Niccolò Tubini, and Riccardo Rigon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4128, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents GEOSPACE and its 1D implementation: an open-source tool for simulating soil-plant-atmosphere continuum (SPAC) interactions. Using object-oriented programming, GEOSPACE modularizes SPAC processes, focusing on infiltration, evapotranspiration, and root water uptake. The 1D deployment integrates plant transpiration, soil evaporation, and root growth, providing a flexible and validated framework for ecohydrological modeling and applications.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Sebastian Ackermann, Denise Cáceres, Martina Flörke, Helena Gerdener, Ellen Kynast, Thedini Asali Peiris, Leonie Schiebener, Maike Schumacher, and Petra Döll
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8817–8852, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing water availability and water use at the global scale is challenging but essential for a range of purposes. We describe the newest version of the global hydrological model WaterGAP, which has been used for numerous water resource assessments since 1996. We show the effects of new model features, as well as model evaluations, against water abstraction statistics and observed streamflow and water storage anomalies. The publicly available model output for several variants is described.
João António Martins Careto, Rita Margarida Cardoso, Ana Russo, Daniela Catarina André Lima, and Pedro Miguel Matos Soares
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8115–8139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a new daily drought index, the generalised drought index (GDI). The GDI not only identifies the same events as established indices but is also capable of improving their results. The index is empirically based and easy to compute, not requiring fitting the data to a probability distribution. The GDI can detect flash droughts and longer-term events, making it a versatile tool for drought monitoring.
Laura L. Swatridge, Ryan P. Mulligan, Leon Boegman, and Shiliang Shan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7751–7766, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7751-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7751-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We develop an operational forecast system, Coastlines-LO, that can simulate water levels and surface waves in Lake Ontario driven by forecasts of wind speeds and pressure fields from an atmospheric model. The model has relatively low computational requirements, and results compare well with near-real-time observations, as well as with results from other existing forecast systems. Results show that with shorter forecast lengths, storm surge and wave predictions can improve in accuracy.
Dapeng Feng, Hylke Beck, Jens de Bruijn, Reetik Kumar Sahu, Yusuke Satoh, Yoshihide Wada, Jiangtao Liu, Ming Pan, Kathryn Lawson, and Chaopeng Shen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7181–7198, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7181-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate hydrologic modeling is vital to characterizing water cycle responses to climate change. For the first time at this scale, we use differentiable physics-informed machine learning hydrologic models to simulate rainfall–runoff processes for 3753 basins around the world and compare them with purely data-driven and traditional modeling approaches. This sets a benchmark for hydrologic estimates around the world and builds foundations for improving global hydrologic simulations.
Matevž Vremec, Raoul A. Collenteur, and Steffen Birk
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7083–7103, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7083-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7083-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Geoscientists commonly use various potential evapotranpiration (PET) formulas for environmental studies, which can be prone to errors and sensitive to climate change. PyEt, a tested and open-source Python package, simplifies the application of 20 PET methods for both time series and gridded data, ensuring accurate and consistent PET estimations suitable for a wide range of environmental applications.
Nedal Aqel, Lea Reusser, Stephan Margreth, Andrea Carminati, and Peter Lehmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6949–6966, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6949-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6949-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The soil water potential (SWP) determines various soil water processes. Since remote sensing techniques cannot measure it directly, it is often deduced from volumetric water content (VWC) information. However, under dynamic field conditions, the relationship between SWP and VWC is highly ambiguous due to different factors that cannot be modeled with the classical approach. Applying a deep neural network with an autoencoder enables the prediction of the dynamic SWP.
Jenny Kupzig, Nina Kupzig, and Martina Flörke
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6819–6846, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6819-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Valid simulation results from global hydrological models (GHMs) are essential, e.g., to studying climate change impacts. Adapting GHMs to ungauged basins requires regionalization, enabling valid simulations. In this study, we highlight the impact of regionalization of GHMs on runoff simulations using an ensemble of regionalization methods for WaterGAP3. We have found that regionalization leads to temporally and spatially varying uncertainty, potentially reaching up to inter-model differences.
Manuel F. Rios Gaona, Katerina Michaelides, and Michael Bliss Singer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5387–5412, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
STORM v.2 (short for STOchastic Rainfall Model version 2.0) is an open-source and user-friendly modelling framework for simulating rainfall fields over a basin. It also allows simulating the impact of plausible climate change either on the total seasonal rainfall or the storm’s maximum intensity.
Lukas Riedel, Thomas Röösli, Thomas Vogt, and David N. Bresch
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5291–5308, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5291-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5291-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
River floods are among the most devastating natural hazards. We propose a flood model with a statistical approach based on openly available data. The model is integrated in a framework for estimating impacts of physical hazards. Although the model only agrees moderately with satellite-detected flood extents, we show that it can be used for forecasting the magnitude of flood events in terms of socio-economic impacts and for comparing these with past events.
Robin Schwemmle, Hannes Leistert, Andreas Steinbrich, and Markus Weiler
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5249–5262, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5249-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The new process-based hydrological toolbox model, RoGeR (https://roger.readthedocs.io/), can be used to estimate the components of the hydrological cycle and the related travel times of pollutants through parts of the hydrological cycle. These estimations may contribute to effective water resources management. This paper presents the toolbox concept and provides a simple example of providing estimations to water resources management.
Sarah Hanus, Lilian Schuster, Peter Burek, Fabien Maussion, Yoshihide Wada, and Daniel Viviroli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5123–5144, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a coupling of the large-scale glacier model OGGM and the hydrological model CWatM. Projected future increase in discharge is less strong while future decrease in discharge is stronger when glacier runoff is explicitly included in the large-scale hydrological model. This is because glacier runoff is projected to decrease in nearly all basins. We conclude that an improved glacier representation can prevent underestimating future discharge changes in large river basins.
M. Graham Clark and Sean K. Carey
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4911–4922, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4911-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides validation of the Canadian Small Lakes Model (CSLM) for estimating evaporation rates from reservoirs and a refactoring of the original FORTRAN code into MATLAB and Python, which are now stored in GitHub repositories. Here we provide direct observations of the surface energy exchange obtained with an eddy covariance system to validate the CSLM. There was good agreement between observations and estimations except under specific atmospheric conditions when evaporation is low.
Thibault Hallouin, François Bourgin, Charles Perrin, Maria-Helena Ramos, and Vazken Andréassian
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4561–4578, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4561-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4561-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The evaluation of the quality of hydrological model outputs against streamflow observations is widespread in the hydrological literature. In order to improve on the reproducibility of published studies, a new evaluation tool dedicated to hydrological applications is presented. It is open source and usable in a variety of programming languages to make it as accessible as possible to the community. Thus, authors and readers alike can use the same tool to produce and reproduce the results.
Barnaby Dobson, Leyang Liu, and Ana Mijic
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4495–4513, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Water management is challenging when models don't capture the entire water cycle. We propose that using integrated models facilitates management and improves understanding. We introduce a software tool designed for this task. We discuss its foundation, how it simulates water system components and their interactions, and its customisation. We provide a flexible way to represent water systems, and we hope it will inspire more research and practical applications for sustainable water management.
Qi Tang, Hugo Delottier, Wolfgang Kurtz, Lars Nerger, Oliver S. Schilling, and Philip Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3559–3578, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3559-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed a new data assimilation framework by coupling an integrated hydrological model HydroGeoSphere with the data assimilation software PDAF. Compared to existing hydrological data assimilation systems, the advantage of our newly developed framework lies in its consideration of the physically based model; its large selection of different assimilation algorithms; and its modularity with respect to the combination of different types of observations, states and parameters.
Willem J. van Verseveld, Albrecht H. Weerts, Martijn Visser, Joost Buitink, Ruben O. Imhoff, Hélène Boisgontier, Laurène Bouaziz, Dirk Eilander, Mark Hegnauer, Corine ten Velden, and Bobby Russell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3199–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3199-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present the wflow_sbm distributed hydrological model, recently released by Deltares, as part of the Wflow.jl open-source modelling framework in the programming language Julia. Wflow_sbm has a fast runtime, making it suitable for large-scale modelling. Wflow_sbm models can be set a priori for any catchment with the Python tool HydroMT-Wflow based on globally available datasets, which results in satisfactory to good performance (without much tuning). We show this for a number of specific cases.
Sanchit Minocha, Faisal Hossain, Pritam Das, Sarath Suresh, Shahzaib Khan, George Darkwah, Hyongki Lee, Stefano Galelli, Konstantinos Andreadis, and Perry Oddo
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3137–3156, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3137-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3137-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Reservoir Assessment Tool (RAT) merges satellite data with hydrological models, enabling robust estimation of reservoir parameters like inflow, outflow, surface area, and storage changes around the world. Version 3.0 of RAT lowers the barrier of entry for new users and achieves scalability and computational efficiency. RAT 3.0 also facilitates open-source development of functions for continuous improvement to mobilize and empower the global water management community.
Heloisa Ehalt Macedo, Bernhard Lehner, Jim Nicell, and Günther Grill
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2877–2899, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2877-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2877-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Treated and untreated wastewaters are sources of contaminants of emerging concern. HydroFATE, a new global model, estimates their concentrations in surface waters, identifying streams that are most at risk and guiding monitoring/mitigation efforts to safeguard aquatic ecosystems and human health. Model predictions were validated against field measurements of the antibiotic sulfamethoxazole, with predicted concentrations exceeding ecological thresholds in more than 400 000 km of rivers worldwide.
Pedro Felipe Arboleda-Obando, Agnès Ducharne, Zun Yin, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2141–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We show a new irrigation scheme included in the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The new irrigation scheme restrains irrigation due to water shortage, includes water adduction, and represents environmental limits and facilities to access water, due to representing infrastructure in a simple way. Our results show that the new irrigation scheme helps simulate acceptable land surface conditions and fluxes in irrigated areas, even if there are difficulties due to shortcomings and limited information.
Guoqiang Tang, Andrew W. Wood, Andrew J. Newman, Martyn P. Clark, and Simon Michael Papalexiou
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1153–1173, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1153-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1153-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble geophysical datasets are crucial for understanding uncertainties and supporting probabilistic estimation/prediction. However, open-access tools for creating these datasets are limited. We have developed the Python-based Geospatial Probabilistic Estimation Package (GPEP). Through several experiments, we demonstrate GPEP's ability to estimate precipitation, temperature, and snow water equivalent. GPEP will be a useful tool to support uncertainty analysis in Earth science applications.
Atabek Umirbekov, Richard Essery, and Daniel Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 911–929, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-911-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a parsimonious snow model which simulates snow mass without the need for extensive calibration. The model is based on a machine learning algorithm that has been trained on diverse set of daily observations of snow accumulation or melt, along with corresponding climate and topography data. We validated the model using in situ data from numerous new locations. The model provides a promising solution for accurate snow mass estimation across regions where in situ data are limited.
Ciaran J. Harman and Esther Xu Fei
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 477–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-477-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-477-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over the last 10 years, scientists have developed StorAge Selection: a new way of modeling how material is transported through complex systems. Here, we present some new, easy-to-use, flexible, and very accurate code for implementing this method. We show that, in cases where we know exactly what the answer should be, our code gets the right answer. We also show that our code is closer than some other codes to the right answer in an important way: it conserves mass.
Lele Shu, Paul Ullrich, Xianhong Meng, Christopher Duffy, Hao Chen, and Zhaoguo Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 497–527, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-497-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our team developed rSHUD v2.0, a toolkit that simplifies the use of the SHUD, a model simulating water movement in the environment. We demonstrated its effectiveness in two watersheds, one in the USA and one in China. The toolkit also facilitated the creation of the Global Hydrological Data Cloud, a platform for automatic data processing and model deployment, marking a significant advancement in hydrological research.
Jarno Verkaik, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink, Hai Xiang Lin, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 275–300, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-275-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-275-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the parallel PCR-GLOBWB global-scale groundwater model at 30 arcsec resolution (~1 km at the Equator). Named GLOBGM v1.0, this model is a follow-up of the 5 arcmin (~10 km) model, aiming for a higher-resolution simulation of worldwide fresh groundwater reserves under climate change and excessive pumping. For a long transient simulation using a parallel prototype of MODFLOW 6, we show that our implementation is efficient for a relatively low number of processor cores.
Han Qiu, Gautam Bisht, Lingcheng Li, Dalei Hao, and Donghui Xu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 143–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-143-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-143-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed and validated an inter-grid-cell lateral groundwater flow model for both saturated and unsaturated zone in the ELMv2.0 framework. The developed model was benchmarked against PFLOTRAN, a 3D subsurface flow and transport model and showed comparable performance with PFLOTRAN. The developed model was also applied to the Little Washita experimental watershed. The spatial pattern of simulated groundwater table depth agreed well with the global groundwater table benchmark dataset.
Daniel Boateng and Sebastian G. Mutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6479–6514, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6479-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6479-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present an open-source Python framework for performing empirical-statistical downscaling of climate information, such as precipitation. The user-friendly package comprises all the downscaling cycles including data preparation, model selection, training, and evaluation, designed in an efficient and flexible manner, allowing for quick and reproducible downscaling products. The framework would contribute to climate change impact assessments by generating accurate high-resolution climate data.
Masaya Yoshikai, Takashi Nakamura, Eugene C. Herrera, Rempei Suwa, Rene Rollon, Raghab Ray, Keita Furukawa, and Kazuo Nadaoka
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5847–5863, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Due to complex root system structures, representing the impacts of Rhizophora mangroves on flow in hydrodynamic models has been challenging. This study presents a new drag and turbulence model that leverages an empirical model for root systems. The model can be applied without rigorous measurements of root structures and showed high performance in flow simulations; this may provide a better understanding of hydrodynamics and related transport processes in Rhizophora mangrove forests.
Hao Chen, Tiejun Wang, Yonggen Zhang, Yun Bai, and Xi Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5685–5701, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Effectively assembling multiple models for approaching a benchmark solution remains a long-standing issue for various geoscience domains. We here propose an automated machine learning-assisted ensemble framework (AutoML-Ens) that attempts to resolve this challenge. Results demonstrate the great potential of AutoML-Ens for improving estimations due to its two unique features, i.e., assigning dynamic weights for candidate models and taking full advantage of AutoML-assisted workflow.
Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Fuqiang Tian, Thomas Wild, Mengqi Zhao, Sean Turner, A. F. M. Kamal Chowdhury, Chris R. Vernon, Hongchang Hu, Yuan Zhuang, Mohamad Hejazi, and Hong-Yi Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5449–5472, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5449-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5449-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Most existing global hydrologic models do not explicitly represent hydropower reservoirs. We are introducing a new water management module to Xanthos that distinguishes between the operational characteristics of irrigation, hydropower, and flood control reservoirs. We show that this explicit representation of hydropower reservoirs can lead to a significantly more realistic simulation of reservoir storage and releases in over 44 % of the hydropower reservoirs included in this study.
Javier Diez-Sierra, Salvador Navas, and Manuel del Jesus
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5035–5048, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5035-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5035-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
NEOPRENE is an open-source, freely available library allowing scientists and practitioners to generate synthetic time series and maps of rainfall. These outputs will help to explore plausible events that were never observed in the past but may occur in the near future and to generate possible future events under climate change conditions. The paper shows how to use the library to downscale daily precipitation and how to use synthetic generation to improve our characterization of extreme events.
Adam Pasik, Alexander Gruber, Wolfgang Preimesberger, Domenico De Santis, and Wouter Dorigo
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4957–4976, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4957-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We apply the exponential filter (EF) method to satellite soil moisture retrievals to estimate the water content in the unobserved root zone globally from 2002–2020. Quality assessment against an independent dataset shows satisfactory results. Error characterization is carried out using the standard uncertainty propagation law and empirically estimated values of EF model structural uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. This is followed by analysis of temporal uncertainty variations.
Po-Wei Huang, Bernd Flemisch, Chao-Zhong Qin, Martin O. Saar, and Anozie Ebigbo
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4767–4791, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4767-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Water in natural environments consists of many ions. Ions are electrically charged and exert electric forces on each other. We discuss whether the electric forces are relevant in describing mixing and reaction processes in natural environments. By comparing our computer simulations to lab experiments in literature, we show that the electric interactions between ions can play an essential role in mixing and reaction processes, in which case they should not be neglected in numerical modeling.
Edward R. Jones, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Niko Wanders, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Ludovicus P. H. van Beek, and Michelle T. H. van Vliet
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4481–4500, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
DynQual is a new high-resolution global water quality model for simulating total dissolved solids, biological oxygen demand and fecal coliform as indicators of salinity, organic pollution and pathogen pollution, respectively. Output data from DynQual can supplement the observational record of water quality data, which is highly fragmented across space and time, and has the potential to inform assessments in a broad range of fields including ecological, human health and water scarcity studies.
Hugo Delottier, John Doherty, and Philip Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4213–4231, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4213-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4213-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Long run times are usually a barrier to the quantification and reduction of predictive uncertainty with complex hydrological models. Data space inversion (DSI) provides an alternative and highly model-run-efficient method for uncertainty quantification. This paper demonstrates DSI's ability to robustly quantify predictive uncertainty and extend the methodology to provide practical metrics that can guide data acquisition and analysis to achieve goals of decision-support modelling.
Zhipin Ai and Naota Hanasaki
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3275–3290, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3275-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3275-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Simultaneously simulating food production and the requirements and availability of water resources in a spatially explicit manner within a single framework remains challenging on a global scale. Here, we successfully enhanced the global hydrological model H08 that considers human water use and management to simulate the yields of four major staple crops: maize, wheat, rice, and soybean. Our improved model will be beneficial for advancing global food–water nexus studies in the future.
Emilie Rouzies, Claire Lauvernet, Bruno Sudret, and Arthur Vidard
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3137–3163, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3137-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3137-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Water and pesticide transfer models are complex and should be simplified to be used in decision support. Indeed, these models simulate many spatial processes in interaction, involving a large number of parameters. Sensitivity analysis allows us to select the most influential input parameters, but it has to be adapted to spatial modelling. This study will identify relevant methods that can be transposed to any hydrological and water quality model and improve the fate of pesticide knowledge.
Guoding Chen, Ke Zhang, Sheng Wang, Yi Xia, and Lijun Chao
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2915–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we developed a novel modeling system called iHydroSlide3D v1.0 by coupling a modified a 3D landslide model with a distributed hydrology model. The model is able to apply flexibly different simulating resolutions for hydrological and slope stability submodules and gain a high computational efficiency through parallel computation. The test results in the Yuehe River basin, China, show a good predicative capability for cascading flood–landslide events.
Jens A. de Bruijn, Mikhail Smilovic, Peter Burek, Luca Guillaumot, Yoshihide Wada, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2437–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a computer simulation model of the hydrological system and human system, which can simulate the behaviour of individual farmers and their interactions with the water system at basin scale to assess how the systems have evolved and are projected to evolve in the future. For example, we can simulate the effect of subsidies provided on investment in adaptation measures and subsequent effects in the hydrological system, such as a lowering of the groundwater table or reservoir level.
Cited articles
Augusiak, J., Van den Brink, P. J., and Grimm, V.: Merging validation and
evaluation of ecological models to “evaludation”: A review of terminology
and a practical approach, Ecol. Modell., 280, 117–128,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.11.009, 2014.
Ayala, A. I., Moras, S., and Pierson, D. C.: Simulations of future changes in thermal structure of Lake Erken: proof of concept for ISIMIP2b lake sector local simulation strategy, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3311–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3311-2020, 2020.
Balsamo, G., Salgado, R., Dutra, E., Boussetta, S., Stockdale, T., and
Potes, M.: On the contribution of lakes in predicting near-surface
temperature in a global weather forecasting model, Tellus A, 64, 15829,
https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.15829, 2012.
Beusen, A. H. W., Van Beek, L. P. H., Bouwman, A. F., Mogollón, J. M., and Middelburg, J. J.: Coupling global models for hydrology and nutrient loading to simulate nitrogen and phosphorus retention in surface water – description of IMAGE–GNM and analysis of performance, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 4045–4067, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-4045-2015, 2015.
Bowling, L. C. and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Modeling the effects of lakes and
wetlands on the water balance of arctic environments, J. Hydrometeorol., 11,
276–295, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JHM1084.1, 2010.
Bruce, L. C., Frassl, M. A., Arhonditsis, G. B., Gal, G., Hamilton, D. P.,
Hanson, P. C., Hetherington, A. L., Melack, J. M., Read, J. S., Rinke, K.,
Rigosi, A., Trolle, D., Winslow, L., Adrian, R., Ayala, A. I., Bocaniov, S.
A., Boehrer, B., Boon, C., Brookes, J. D., Bueche, T., Busch, B. D.,
Copetti, D., Cortés, A., de Eyto, E., Elliott, J. A., Gallina, N.,
Gilboa, Y., Guyennon, N., Huang, L., Kerimoglu, O., Lenters, J. D.,
MacIntyre, S., Makler-Pick, V., McBride, C. G., Moreira, S., Özkundakci,
D., Pilotti, M., Rueda, F. J., Rusak, J. A., Samal, N. R., Schmid, M.,
Shatwell, T., Snorthheim, C., Soulignac, F., Valerio, G., van der Linden,
L., Vetter, M., Vinçon-Leite, B., Wang, J., Weber, M., Wickramaratne,
C., Woolway, R. I., Yao, H., and Hipsey, M. R.: A multi-lake comparative
analysis of the General Lake Model (GLM): Stress-testing across a global
observatory network, Environ. Model. Softw., 102, 274–291,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.11.016, 2018.
Bruggeman, J. and Bolding, K.: A general framework for aquatic
biogeochemical models, Environ. Model. Softw., 61, 249–265,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.04.002, 2014.
Burchard, H., Bolding, K., and Villarreal, M. R.: GOTM, a general ocean turbulence model: theory, implementation and test cases, Space Applications Institute, Volume 18745 of EUR/European Commission, 103, https://books.google.be/books/about/GOTM_a_General_Ocean_Turbulence_Model.html?id=zsJUHAAACAAJ&redir_esc=y (last access: 23 May 2022), 1999.
Burchard, H., Bolding, K., Kühn, W., Meister, A., Neumann, T., and Umlauf, L.: Description of a flexible and extendable physical-biogeochemical model system for the water column, J. Marine Syst., 61, 180–211, 2006.
Butcher, J. B., Nover, D., Johnson, T. E., and Clark, C. M.: Sensitivity of
lake thermal and mixing dynamics to climate change, Climatic Change, 129, 295–305,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1326-1, 2015.
Choulga, M., Kourzeneva, E., Zakharova, E., and Doganovsky, A.: Estimation
of the mean depth of boreal lakes for use in numerical weather prediction
and climate modelling, Tellus A, 66, 21295, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v66.21295, 2014.
Cramer, W., Yohe, G. W., Auffhammer, M., Huggel, C., Molau, U., Da Silva
Dias, M. A. F., Solow, A., Stone, D. A., and Tibig, L.: Detection and
attribution of observed impacts, in: Climate Change 2014: Impacts,
Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate, 979–1038,
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415379.023, 2014.
Cucchi, M., Weedon, G. P., Amici, A., Bellouin, N., Lange, S., Müller Schmied, H., Hersbach, H., and Buontempo, C.: WFDE5: bias-adjusted ERA5 reanalysis data for impact studies, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2097–2120, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2097-2020, 2020.
Dirmeyer, P. A., Gao, X., Zhao, M., Guo, Z., Oki, T., and Hanasaki, N.:
GSWP-2: Multimodel analysis and implications for our perception of the land
surface, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 87, 1381–1397,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-87-10-1381, 2006.
Dörnhöfer, K. and Oppelt, N.: Remote sensing for lake research and
monitoring – Recent advances, Ecol. Indic., 64, 105–122,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.12.009, 2016.
Fairall, C. W., Bradley, E. F., Rogers, D. P., Edson, J. B., and Young, G. S.: Bulk parameterization of air‐sea fluxes for tropical ocean‐global atmosphere coupled‐ocean atmosphere response experiment, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 101, 3747–3764, 1996.
Fang, C., Song, K., Paerl, H. W., Jacinthe, P.-A., Wen, Z., Liu, G., Tao,
H., Xu, X., Kutser, T., Wang, Z., Duan, H., Shi, K., Shang, Y., Lyu, L., Li,
S., Yang, Q., Lyu, D., Mao, D., Zhang, B., Cheng, S., and Lyu, Y.: Global
divergent trends of algal blooms detected by satellite during 1982–2018,
Glob. Chang. Biol., 28, 2327–2340,
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16077, 2022.
Frieler, K., Lange, S., Piontek, F., Reyer, C. P. O., Schewe, J., Warszawski, L., Zhao, F., Chini, L., Denvil, S., Emanuel, K., Geiger, T., Halladay, K., Hurtt, G., Mengel, M., Murakami, D., Ostberg, S., Popp, A., Riva, R., Stevanovic, M., Suzuki, T., Volkholz, J., Burke, E., Ciais, P., Ebi, K., Eddy, T. D., Elliott, J., Galbraith, E., Gosling, S. N., Hattermann, F., Hickler, T., Hinkel, J., Hof, C., Huber, V., Jägermeyr, J., Krysanova, V., Marcé, R., Müller Schmied, H., Mouratiadou, I., Pierson, D., Tittensor, D. P., Vautard, R., van Vliet, M., Biber, M. F., Betts, R. A., Bodirsky, B. L., Deryng, D., Frolking, S., Jones, C. D., Lotze, H. K., Lotze-Campen, H., Sahajpal, R., Thonicke, K., Tian, H., and Yamagata, Y.: Assessing the impacts of 1.5 ∘C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, 2017.
Gädeke, A., Langer, M., Boike, J., Burke, E. J., Chang, J., Head, M.,
Reyer, C. P. O., Schaphoff, S., Thiery, W., and Thonicke, K.: Climate change
reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end
global warming scenarios, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 24049, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdcf2, 2021.
Gal, G., Yael, G., Noam, S., Moshe, E., and Schlabing, D.: Ensemble modeling
of the impact of climate warming and increased frequency of extreme climatic
events on the thermal characteristics of a sub-tropical lake, Water, 12,
1982, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12071982, 2020.
Gaudard, A., Råman Vinnå, L., Bärenbold, F., Schmid, M., and Bouffard, D.: Toward an open access to high-frequency lake modeling and statistics data for scientists and practitioners – the case of Swiss lakes using Simstrat v2.1, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3955–3974, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3955-2019, 2019.
Goudsmit, G.-H., Burchard, H., Peeters, F., and Wüest, A.: Application
of k-ϵ turbulence models to enclosed basins: The role of internal
seiches, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 107, 3230, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JC000954, 2002.
Grant, L., Vanderkelen, I., Gudmundsson, L., Tan, Z., Perroud, M.,
Stepanenko, V. M., Debolskiy, A. V., Droppers, B., Janssen, A. B. G.,
Woolway, R. I., Choulga, M., Balsamo, G., Kirillin, G., Schewe, J., Zhao,
F., del Valle, I. V., Golub, M., Pierson, D., Marcé, R., Seneviratne, S.
I., and Thiery, W.: Attribution of global lake systems change to
anthropogenic forcing, Nat. Geosci., 14, 849–854,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00833-x, 2021.
Gudmundsson, L., Boulange, J., Do, H. X., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M. G.,
Koutroulis, A. G., Leonard, M., Liu, J., Müller Schmied, H.,
Papadimitriou, L., Pokhrel, Y., Seneviratne, S. I., Satoh, Y., Thiery, W., Westra, S., Zhang, X., and Zhao, F.: Globally observed trends in mean and extreme
river flow attributed to climate change, Science, 371, 1159–1162, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba3996, 2021.
Guo, M., Zhuang, Q., Tan, Z., Shurpali, N., Juutinen, S., Kortelainen, P.,
and Martikainen, P. J.: Rising methane emissions from boreal lakes due to
increasing ice-free days, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 64008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8254, 2020.
Guo, M., Zhuang, Q., Yao, H., Golub, M., Leung, L. R., Pierson, D., and Tan,
Z.: Validation and Sensitivity Analysis of a 1-D Lake Model Across Global
Lakes, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD033417, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033417, 2021.
Guseva, S., Bleninger, T., Jöhnk, K., Polli, B. A., Tan, Z., Thiery, W., Zhuang, Q., Rusak, J. A., Yao, H., Lorke, A., and Stepanenko, V.: Multimodel simulation of vertical gas transfer in a temperate lake, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 697–715, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-697-2020, 2020.
Håkanson, L.: Models to predict Secchi depth in small glacial lakes,
Aquat. Sci., 57, 31–53, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00878025, 1995.
Hansen, G. J. A., Read, J. S., Hansen, J. F., and Winslow, L. A.: Projected
shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change,
Glob. Change Biol., 23, 1463–1476, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13462, 2017.
Hanson, Z. J., Zwart, J. A., Jones, S. E., Hamlet, A. F., and Bolster, D.:
Projected changes of regional lake hydrologic characteristics in response to
21st century climate change, Inl. Waters, 11, 335–350,
https://doi.org/10.1080/20442041.2021.1924538, 2021.
Heiskanen, J. J., Mammarella, I., Ojala, A., Stepanenko, V. M., Erkkilä,
K., Miettinen, H., Eugster, W., Lepparanta, M., Jarvinen, H., Vesala, T.,
and Nordbo, A.: Effect of water clarity on lake stratification and
lake-atmosphere heat exchange, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 7412–7428,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022938, 2015.
Hempel, S., Frieler, K., Warszawski, L., Schewe, J., and Piontek, F.: A trend-preserving bias correction – the ISI-MIP approach, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 219–236, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-219-2013, 2013.
Henderson-Sellers, B.: New formulation of eddy diffusion thermocline models,
Appl. Math. Model., 9, 441–446,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0307-904X(85)90110-6, 1985.
Hipsey, M. R., Bruce, L. C., Boon, C., Busch, B., Carey, C. C., Hamilton, D. P., Hanson, P. C., Read, J. S., de Sousa, E., Weber, M., and Winslow, L. A.: A General Lake Model (GLM 3.0) for linking with high-frequency sensor data from the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 473–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-473-2019, 2019.
Hostetler, S. W.: Simulation of lake ice and its effect on the
late-Pleistocene evaporation rate of Lake Lahontan, Clim. Dynam., 6, 43–48, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00210581,
1991.
Hostetler, S. W. and Bartlein, P. J.: Simulation of lake evaporation with
application to modeling lake level variations of Harney-Malheur Lake,
Oregon, Water Resour. Res., 26, 2603–2612, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR026i010p02603, 1990.
Hou, X., Feng, L., Dai, Y., Hu, C., Gibson, L., Tang, J., Lee, Z., Wang, Y.,
Cai, X., Liu, J., Zheng, Y., and Zheng, C.: Global mapping reveals increase
in lacustrine algal blooms over the past decade, Nat. Geosci., 15, 130–134,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00887-x, 2022.
Hunt, R. J., Walker, J. F., Selbig, W. R., Westenbroek, S. M., and Regan, R.
S.: Simulation of climate-change effects on streamflow, lake water budgets,
and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP, Trout Lake Watershed,
Wisconsin, U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report,
2013–5139, Reston, VA, 128 pp., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20135159, 2013.
Imberger, J. and Patterson, J. C.: Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model-DYRESM: 5, edited by: Fischer, H. B., 310–361, http://www.arlis.org/docs/vol2/hydropower/APA_DOC_no._534.pdf (last access: 23 May 2022), 1981.
The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project: Impact Model Settings & Characteristics, ISIMIP [code], https://www.isimip.org/impactmodels, last access: 23 May 2022.
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Global warming of 1.5 ∘C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 ∘C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pörtner, H. O., Roberts, D., Skea, J., Shukla, P. R.,
Pirani, A., Moufouma-Okia, W., Péan, C., Pidcock, R., Connors, S., Matthews, J. B. R., Chen, Y., Zhou, X., Gomis, M. I., Lonnoy, E., Maycock, T., Tignor, M., and Waterfield, T., World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 32 pp., 2018.
Ito, A., Reyer, C. P. O., Gädeke, A., Ciais, P., Chang, J., Chen, M.,
François, L., Forrest, M., Hickler, T., Ostberg, S., Hao, S., Thiery, W., and Tian, H.:
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern
high-latitude land ecosystems, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 44006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b, 2020.
Jane, S. F., Hansen, G. J. A., Kraemer, B. M., Leavitt, P. R., Mincer, J.
L., North, R. L., Pilla, R. M., Stetler, J. T., Williamson, C. E., Woolway,
R. I., Arvola, L., Chandra, S., DeGasperi, C., Diemer, L., Dunalska, J., Erina, O., Flaim, G., Grossart, H.-P., Hambright, K. D., Hein, C., Hejzlar, J., Janus, L., Jenny, J.-P., Jones, J., Knoll, L. B., Leoni, B., MacKay, E., Matsuzaki, S.-I., McBride, C., Müller-Navarra, D. C., Paterson, A. M., Pierson, D., Rogora, M., Rusak, J., Sadro, S., Saulnier-Talbot, E., Schmid, M., Sommaruga, R., Thiery, W., Weyhenmeyer, G., Yokota, K., and Rose, K. C.: Widespread deoxygenation of temperate lakes, Nature, 594,
66–70, 2021.
Janssen, A. B. G., Arhonditsis, G. B., Beusen, A., Bolding, K.,
Bruce, L., Bruggeman, J., Couture, R.-M., Downing, A., Elliott, J. A., Frassl,
M. A., Gal, G., Gerla, D. J., Hipsey, M. R., Hu, F., Ives, S.
C., Janse, J. H., Jeppesen, E., Jöhnk, K. D., Kneis, D., Kong, X.,
Kuiper, J. J., Lehmann, M. K., Lemmen, C., Özkundakci, D., Petzoldt, T., Rinke, K., Robson, B., Sachse, R.,
Schep, S. A., Schmid, M., Scholten, H.,
Teurlincx, S., Trolle, D., Troost T. A., Van Dam, A. A., Van Gerven, P. A., Weijerman, M., Wells, S. A., and Mooij, W. M.: Exploring,
exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models: a community
perspective, Aquat. Ecol., 49, 513–548,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10452-015-9544-1, 2015.
Janssen, A. B. G., Janse, J. H., Beusen, A. H. W., Chang, M., Harrison, J.
A., Huttunen, I., Kong, X., Rost, J., Teurlincx, S., Troost, T. A., van
Wijk, D., and Mooij, W. M.: How to model algal blooms in any lake on earth,
Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain., 36, 1–10,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2018.09.001, 2019.
Janssen, A. B. G., Hilt, S., Kosten, S., de Klein, J. J. M., Paerl, H. W.,
and Van de Waal, D. B.: Shifting states, shifting services: Linking regime
shifts to changes in ecosystem services of shallow lakes, Freshw. Biol., 66,
1–12, https://doi.org/10.1111/fwb.13582, 2021.
Khazaei, B., Read, L. K., Casali, M., Sampson, K. M., and Yates, D. N.:
GLOBathy, the global lakes bathymetry dataset, Sci. Data, 9, 36,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01132-9, 2022.
Kilic, L., Prigent, C., Aires, F., Boutin, J., Heygster, G., Tonboe, R. T.,
Roquet, H., Jimenez, C., and Donlon, C.: Expected Performances of the
Copernicus Imaging Microwave Radiometer (CIMR) for an All-Weather and High
Spatial Resolution Estimation of Ocean and Sea Ice Parameters, J. Geophys.
Res.-Oceans, 123, 7564–7580,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC014408, 2018.
Kiuru, P., Ojala, A., Mammarella, I., Heiskanen, J., Erkkilä, K.-M., Miettinen, H., Vesala, T., and Huttula, T.: Applicability and consequences of the integration of alternative models for CO2 transfer velocity into a process-based lake model, Biogeosciences, 16, 3297–3317, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3297-2019, 2019.
Kobler, U. G. and Schmid, M.: Ensemble modelling of ice cover for a reservoir affected by pumped-storage operation and climate change, Hydrol. Process., 33, 2676–2690, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13519, 2019.
Kraemer, B. M., Anneville, O., Chandra, S., Dix, M., Kuusisto, E.,
Livingstone, D. M., Rimmer, A., Schladow, G., Silow, E., Sitoki, L. M.,
Tamatamah, R., Vadeboncoeur, Y., and McIntyre, P. B.: Morphometry and
average temperature affect lake stratification responses to climate change,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 4981–4988,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064097, 2015.
Kraemer, B. M., Pilla, R. M., Woolway, R. I., Anneville, O., Ban, S.,
Colom-Montero, W., Devlin, S. P., Dokulil, M. T., Gaiser, E. E., Hambright,
K. D., Hessen, D. O., Higgins, S. N., Jöhnk, K. D., Keller, W., Knoll, L. B., Leavitt, P. R., Lepori, F., Luger, M. S., Maberly, S. C., Müller-Navarra, D. C., Paterson, A. M., Pierson,, D. C., Richardson, D. C., Rogora, M., Rusak, J. A., Sadro, S., Salmaso, N., Schmid, M., Silow, E. A., Sommaruga, R., Stelzer, J. A. A., Straile, D., Thiery, W., Verburg P., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., and Adrian, R.: Climate change drives widespread shifts in lake thermal
habitat, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 521–529, 2021.
Lange, S.: EartH2Observe, WFDEI and ERA-Interim data Merged and
Bias-corrected for ISIMIP (EWEMBI), V.1.1, GFZ Data Serv. [data set],
https://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2019.004, 2019a.
Lange, S.: Trend-preserving bias adjustment and statistical downscaling with ISIMIP3BASD (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3055–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3055-2019, 2019b.
Lange, S.: ISIMIP3 bias adjustment fact sheet,
https://www.isimip.org/documents/413/ISIMIP3b_bias_adjustment_fact_sheet_Gnsz7CO.pdf (last access: 23 May 2022), 2021.
Lange, S., Volkholz, J., Geiger, T., Zhao, F., Vega, I., Veldkamp, T.,
Reyer, C. P. O., Warszawski, L., Huber, V., Jägermeyr, J., Schewe, J.,
Bresch, D. N., Büchner, M., Chang, J., Ciais, P., Dury, M., Emanuel, K.,
Folberth, C., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M., Hanasaki, N.,
Henrot, A. J., Hickler, T., Honda, Y., Ito, A., Khabarov, N., Koutroulis,
A., Liu, W., Müller, C., Nishina, K., Ostberg, S., Müller Schmied,
H., Seneviratne, S. I., Stacke, T., Steinkamp, J., Thiery, W., Wada, Y.,
Willner, S., Yang, H., Yoshikawa, M., Yue, C., and Frieler, K.: Projecting
Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and
Three Spatial Scales, Earth's Future, 8, e2020EF001616,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001616, 2020.
Larssen, T., Høgåsen, T., and Cosby, B. J.: Impact of time series
data on calibration and prediction uncertainty for a deterministic
hydrogeochemical model, Ecol. Modell., 207, 22–33,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.03.016, 2007.
Lawrence, D. M., Oleson, K. W., Flanner, M. G., Thornton, P. E., Swenson, S.
C., Lawrence, P. J., Zeng, X., Yang, Z.-L., Levis, S., Sakaguchi, K., Bonan, G. B., and Slater, A. G.: Parameterization improvements and functional and structural advances
in version 4 of the Community Land Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 3, M03001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011MS00045,
2011.
Lehner, B. and Döll, P.: Development and validation of a global database
of lakes, reservoirs and wetlands, J. Hydrol., 296, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.03.028, 2004.
Lehner, B. and Messager, M.: HydroLAKES, Technical Documentation Version 1.0, 16 pp., https://www.hydrosheds.org/products/hydrolakes (last access: 23 May 2022), 2016.
Magee, M. R., Wu, C. H., Robertson, D. M., Lathrop, R. C., and Hamilton, D. P.: Trends and abrupt changes in 104 years of ice cover and water temperature in a dimictic lake in response to air temperature, wind speed, and water clarity drivers, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1681–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1681-2016, 2016.
Marcé, R., George, G., Buscarinu, P., Deidda, M., Dunalska, J., de Eyto,
E., Flaim, G., Grossart, H.-P., Istvanovics, V., Lenhardt, M., Moreno-Ostos, E., Obrador, B., Ostrovsky, I., Pierson, D. C., Potužák, J., Poikane, S., Rinke, K., Rodríguez-Mozaz, S., Staehr, P. A., Šumberová, K., Waajen, G., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Weathers, K. C., Zion, M., Ibelings, B. W., and Jennings, E.:
Automatic high frequency monitoring for improved lake and reservoir
management, Environ. Sci. & Technol., 50, 10780–10794, 2016.
Marcé, R., Pierson, D., Mercado-Bettin, D., Thiery, W., Tan, Z., and Schewe, J.: ISIMIP2a Simulation Data from the Global Lakes Sector (v1.0), ISIMIP Repository [data set], https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.530719, 2022a.
Marcé, R., Pierson, D., Mercado-Bettin, D., Thiery, W., Tan, Z., Seneviratne, S., Golub, M., Debolskiy, A., Stepanenko, V., Perroud, M., Droppers, B., and Schewe, J.:
ISIMIP2b Simulation Data from the Global Lakes Sector (v1.0), ISIMIP Repository [data set], https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.931371, 2022b.
Marcé, R., Pierson, D., Mercado-Bettin, D., Thiery, W., Piccolroaz, S., Woodward, B., Woolway, R. I., Tan, Z., Kirillin, G., Shatwell, T., Couture, R.-M., Côté, M., Bouffard, D., Råman Vinnå, C. L. M., Schmid, M., and Schewe, J.: ISIMIP2b Simulation Data from the Local Lakes Sector (v1.0), ISIMIP Repository [data set], https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.563533, 2022c.
Marcé, R., Mercado, D., Vanderkelen, I., Tigli, M., Janssen, A. B. G., Kraemer, B., Piccolroaz, S., Thiery, W., Woolway, R. I., Yaghouti, M., and Pierson, D.: Inputs for lake morphology in ISIMIP3 runs of the global lake sector [Data set]. In Geoscientific Model Development (ISIMIP3_LS_v2022), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6457813, 2022d.
Markelov, I., Couture, R. M., Fischer, R., Haande, S., and Van Cappellen,
P.: Coupling Water Column and Sediment Biogeochemical Dynamics: Modeling
Internal Phosphorus Loading, Climate Change Responses, and Mitigation
Measures in Lake Vansjø, Norway, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 124,
3847–3866, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JG005254, 2019.
Mengel, M., Treu, S., Lange, S., and Frieler, K.: ATTRICI v1.1 – counterfactual climate for impact attribution, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5269–5284, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5269-2021, 2021.
Mesman, J. P., Ayala, A. I., Adrian, R., De Eyto, E., Frassl, M. A.,
Goyette, S., Kasparian, J., Perroud, M., Stelzer, J. A. A., Pierson, D. C.,
and Ibelings, B. W.: Performance of one-dimensional hydrodynamic lake models during
short-term extreme weather events, Environ. Model. & Softw., 133, 104852, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104852,
2020.
Messager, M. L., Lehner, B., Grill, G., Nedeva, I., and Schmitt, O.:
Estimating the volume and age of water stored in global lakes using a
geo-statistical approach, Nat. Commun., 7, 13603, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13603, 2016.
Mironov, D. V: Parameterization of lakes in numerical weather prediction.
Part 1: Description of a lake model, COSMO Technical Report 11, 47 pp., https://cosmo-model.org/content/model/documentation/techReports/cosmo/docs/techReport11.pdf (last access: 23 May 2022),
2008.
Moe, S. J., Haande, S., and Couture, R. M.: Climate change, cyanobacteria
blooms and ecological status of lakes: A Bayesian network approach, Ecol.
Modell., 337, 330–347, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.07.004,
2016.
Moras, S., Ayala, A. I., and Pierson, D. C.: Historical modelling of changes in Lake Erken thermal conditions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5001–5016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5001-2019, 2019.
Murfitt, J. and Duguay, C. R.: 50 years of lake ice research from active
microwave remote sensing: Progress and prospects, Remote Sens. Environ.,
264, 112616, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2021.112616,
2021.
Oleson, K. W., Lawrence, D. M., Bonan, G. B., Drewniak, B., Huang, M.,
Charles, D., Levis, S., Li, F., Riley, W. J., Zachary, M., Swenson, S. C.,
Thornton, P. E., Bozbiyik, A., Fisher, R., Heald, C. L., Kluzek, E.,
Lamarque, F., Lawrence, P. J., Leung, L. R., Muszala, S., Ricciuto, D. M.,
and Sacks, W.: Technical description of version 4.5 of the Community Land
Model (CLM), NCAR Technical Note, 420 pp., https://opensky.ucar.edu/islandora/object/technotes:515/ (last access: 23 May 2022), 2013.
O'Reilly, C. M., Sharma, S., Gray, D. K., et al.: Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters
around the globe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 10–773, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066235, 2015.
Patterson, J. C. and Hamblin, P. F.: Thermal simulation of a lake with
winter ice cover, Limnol. Oceanogr., 33, 323–338,
https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.1988.33.3.0323, 1988.
Perroud, M., Goyette, S., Martynov, A., Beniston, M., and Anneville, O.:
Simulation of multiannual thermal profiles in deep Lake Geneva: A comparison
of one-dimensional lake models, Limnol. Oceanogr., 54, 1574–1594, https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2009.54.5.1574, 2009.
Piccolroaz, S.: Prediction of lake surface temperature using the air2water
model: guidelines, challenges, and future perspectives, Adv. Oceanogr.
Limnol., 7, https://doi.org/10.4081/aiol.2016.5791, 2016.
Piccolroaz, S., Toffolon, M., and Majone, B.: A simple lumped model to convert air temperature into surface water temperature in lakes, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3323–3338, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3323-2013, 2013.
Piccolroaz, S., Healey, N. C., Lenters, J. D., Schladow, S. G., Hook, S. J.,
Sahoo, G. B., and Toffolon, M.: On the predictability of lake surface
temperature using air temperature in a changing climate: A case study for
Lake Tahoe (U.S.A.), Limnol. Oceanogr., 63, 243–261,
https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.10626, 2018.
Piccolroaz, S., Woolway, R. I., and Merchant, C. J.: Global reconstruction
of twentieth century lake surface water temperature reveals different
warming trends depending on the climatic zone, Climatic Change, 160, 427–442, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02663-z,
2020.
Pilla, R. M. and Couture, R. M.: Attenuation of photosynthetically active
radiation and ultraviolet radiation in response to changing dissolved
organic carbon in browning lakes: Modeling and parametrization, Limnol.
Oceanogr., 66, 2278–2289, https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.11753, 2021.
Pilla, R. M., Williamson, C. E., Adamovich, B. V, et al.: Deeper waters are changing less consistently than surface waters
in a global analysis of 102 lakes, Sci. Rep., 10, 20514, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-76873-x, 2020.
Pilla, R. M., Mette, E. M., Williamson, C. E., et al.: Global data set of long-term summertime vertical temperature
profiles in 153 lakes, Sci. Data, 8, 200, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-021-00983-y, 2021.
Pokhrel, Y., Felfelani, F., Satoh, Y., Boulange, J., Burek, P., Gädeke,
A., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M., Gudmundsson, L., Hanasaki, N., Kim, H., Koutroulis, A., Liu, J., Papadimitriou, L., Schewe, J., Müller Schmied, H., Stacke, T., Telteu, C. E., Thiery, W., Veldkamp, T., Zhao, F., and Wada, Y.:
Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change,
Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 226–233, 2021.
Poole, H. H. and Atkins, W. R. G.: Photo-electric measurements of submarine
illumination throughout the year, J. Mar. Biol. Assoc. UK, 16,
297–324, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0025315400029829, 1929.
Potes, M., Costa, M. J., and Salgado, R.: Satellite remote sensing of water turbidity in Alqueva reservoir and implications on lake modelling, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1623–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1623-2012, 2012.
Prats, J. and Danis, P.-A.: An epilimnion and hypolimnion temperature model
based on air temperature and lake characteristics, Knowl. Manag. Aquat.
Ec., 8, 420, https://doi.org/10.1051/kmae/2019001, 2019.
Rand, J. M., Nanko, M. O., Lykkegaard, M. B., Wain, D., King, W., Bryant, L.
D., and Hunter, A.: The human factor: Weather bias in manual lake water
quality monitoring, Limnol. Oceanogr. Methods, 20, 288–303,
https://doi.org/10.1002/lom3.10488, 2022.
Reid, A. J., Carlson, A. K., Creed, I. F., Eliason, E. J., Gell, P. A.,
Johnson, P. T. J., Kidd, K. A., MacCormack, T. J., Olden, J. D., Ormerod, S.
J., Smol, J. P., Taylor, W. W., Tockner, K., Vermaire, J. C., Dudgeon, D.,
and Cooke, S. J.: Emerging threats and persistent conservation challenges
for freshwater biodiversity, Biol. Rev., 94, 849–873,
https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12480, 2019.
Reinecke, R., Müller Schmied, H., Trautmann, T., Andersen, L. S., Burek, P., Flörke, M., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M., Hanasaki, N., Koutroulis, A., Pokhrel, Y., Thiery, W., Wada, Y., Yusuke, S., and Döll, P.: Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 787–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, 2021.
Rimet, F., Anneville, O., Barbet, D., Chardon, C., Crépin, L., Domaizon,
I., Dorioz, J. M., Espinat, L., Frossard, V., Guillard, J., Goulon, C.,
Hamelet, V., Hustache, J. C., Jacquet, S., Lainé, L., Montuelle, B.,
Perney, P., Quetin, P., Rasconi, S., Schellenberger, A., Tran-Khac, V., and
Monet, G.: The Observatory on LAkes (OLA) database: Sixty years of
environmental data accessible to the public, J. Limnol., 79, 164–178,
https://doi.org/10.4081/jlimnol.2020.1944, 2020.
Sachse, R., Petzoldt, T., Blumstock, M., Moreira, S., Pätzig, M.,
Rücker, J., Janse, J. H., Mooij, W. M., and Hilt, S.: Extending
one-dimensional models for deep lakes to simulate the impact of submerged
macrophytes on water quality, Environ. Model. Softw., 61, 410–423,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.05.023, 2014.
Saloranta, T. M. and Andersen, T.: MyLake-A multi-year lake simulation model
code suitable for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis simulations, Ecol.
Modell., 207, 45–60, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.03.018, 2007.
Schewe, J., Gosling, S. N., Reyer, C., Zhao, F., Ciais, P., Elliott, J.,
Francois, L., Huber, V., Lotze, H. K., Seneviratne, S. I., van Vliet, M. T.
H., Vautard, R., Wada, Y., Breuer, L., Büchner, M., Carozza, D. A.,
Chang, J., Coll, M., Deryng, D., de Wit, A., Eddy, T. D., Folberth, C.,
Frieler, K., Friend, A. D., Gerten, D., Gudmundsson, L., Hanasaki, N., Ito,
A., Khabarov, N., Kim, H., Lawrence, P., Morfopoulos, C., Müller, C.,
Müller Schmied, H., Orth, R., Ostberg, S., Pokhrel, Y., Pugh, T. A. M.,
Sakurai, G., Satoh, Y., Schmid, E., Stacke, T., Steenbeek, J., Steinkamp,
J., Tang, Q., Tian, H., Tittensor, D. P., Volkholz, J., Wang, X., and
Warszawski, L.: State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from
climate extremes, Nat. Commun., 10, 1005,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6, 2019.
Schleussner, C. F., Deryng, D., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Saeed, F.,
Folberth, C., Liu, W., Wang, X., Pugh, T. A. M., Thiery, W., Seneviratne, S.
I., and Rogelj, J.: Crop productivity changes in 1.5 ∘C and 2 ∘C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty, Environ. Res.
Lett., 13, 064007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab63b, 2018.
Schwefel, R., Gaudard, A., Wüest, A., and Bouffard, D.: Effects of
climate change on deepwater oxygen and winter mixing in a deep lake (Lake
Geneva): Comparing observational findings and modeling, Water Resour. Res.,
52, 8811–8826, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019194, 2016.
Settele, J., Scholes, R., Betts, R. A., Bunn, S., Leadley, P., Nepstad, D.,
Overpeck, J. T., and Taboada, M. A.: Terrestrial and Inland water systems,
in: Climate Change 2014 Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Part A:
Global and Sectoral Aspects, 271–360,
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415379.009, 2015.
Sharma, S., Gray, D. K., Read, J. S., O'Reilly, C. M., Schneider, P.,
Qudrat, A., Gries, C., Stefanoff, S., Hampton, S. E., Hook, S., Lenters, J.
D., Livingstone, D. M., McIntyre, P. B., Adrian, R., Allan, M. G.,
Anneville, O., Arvola, L., Austin, J., Bailey, J., Baron, J. S., Brookes,
J., Chen, Y., Daly, R., Dokulil, M., Dong, B., Ewing, K., De Eyto, E.,
Hamilton, D., Havens, K., Haydon, S., Hetzenauer, H., Heneberry, J.,
Hetherington, A. L., Higgins, S. N., Hixson, E., Izmest'eva, L. R., Jones,
B. M., Kangur, K., Kasprzak, P., Köster, O., Kraemer, B. M., Kumagai,
M., Kuusisto, E., Leshkevich, G., May, L., MacIntyre, S.,
Müller-Navarra, D., Naumenko, M., Noges, P., Noges, T., Niederhauser,
P., North, R. P., Paterson, A. M., Plisnier, P. D., Rigosi, A., Rimmer, A.,
Rogora, M., Rudstam, L., Rusak, J. A., Salmaso, N., Samal, N. R., Schindler,
D. E., Schladow, G., Schmidt, S. R., Schultz, T., Silow, E. A., Straile, D.,
Teubner, K., Verburg, P., Voutilainen, A., Watkinson, A., Weyhenmeyer, G.
A., Williamson, C. E., and Woo, K. H.: A global database of lake surface
temperatures collected by in situ and satellite methods from 1985-2009, Sci.
Data, 2, 150008, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.8, 2015.
Sharma, S., Blagrave, K., Magnuson, J. J., O'Reilly, C. M., Oliver, S.,
Batt, R. D., Magee, M. R., Straile, D., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Winslow, L., and
Woolway, R. I.: Widespread loss of lake ice around the Northern Hemisphere
in a warming world, Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 227–231,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0393-5, 2019.
Shatwell, T., Thiery, W., and Kirillin, G.: Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1533–1551, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019, 2019.
Shen, H., Tolson, B. A., and Mai, J.: Time to Update the Split-Sample
Approach in Hydrological Model Calibration, Water Resour. Res., 58, e2021WR031523,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021wr031523, 2022.
Spence, C., Blanken, P. D., Lenters, J. D., and Hedstrom, N.: The Importance
of Spring and Autumn Atmospheric Conditions for the Evaporation Regime of
Lake Superior, J. Hydrometeorol., 14, 1647–1658,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-0170.1, 2013.
Stepanenko, V., Jöhnk, K. D., and Machulskaya, E.: Simulation of surface
energy fluxes and stratification of a small boreal lake by a set of
one-dimensional models, Tellus A, 66, 21389,
https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v66.21389, 2014.
Stepanenko, V., Mammarella, I., Ojala, A., Miettinen, H., Lykosov, V., and Vesala, T.: LAKE 2.0: a model for temperature, methane, carbon dioxide and oxygen dynamics in lakes, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1977–2006, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1977-2016, 2016.
Stepanenko, V. M., Goyette, S., Martynov, A., Perroud, M., Fang, X., and
Mironov, D.: First steps of a Lake Model Intercomparison Project: LakeMIP,
Boreal Environ. Res., 15, 191–202, 2010.
Stepanenko, V. M., Martynov, A., Jöhnk, K. D., Subin, Z. M., Perroud, M., Fang, X., Beyrich, F., Mironov, D., and Goyette, S.: A one-dimensional model intercomparison study of thermal regime of a shallow, turbid midlatitude lake, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1337–1352, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1337-2013, 2013.
Strokal, M., Kroeze, C., Wang, M., Bai, Z., and Ma, L.: The MARINA model
(Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs): Model description and
results for China, Sci. Total Environ., 562, 869–888,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.04.071, 2016.
Subin, Z. M., Riley, W. J., and Mironov, D.: An improved lake model for
climate simulations: model structure, evaluation, and sensitivity analyses
in CESM1, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 4, M02001,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011MS000072, 2012.
Tan, Z., Zhuang, Q., and Walter Anthony, K.: Modeling methane emissions from
arctic lakes: Model development and site-level study, J. Adv. Model. Earth
Syst., 7, 459–483, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014MS000344, 2015.
Tan, Z., Zhuang, Q., Shurpali, N. J., Marushchak, M. E., Biasi, C., Eugster,
W., and Walter Anthony, K.: Modeling CO2 emissions from Arctic lakes: Model
development and site-level study, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 9, 2190–2213,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001028, 2017.
Tan, Z., Yao, H., and Zhuang, Q.: A Small Temperate Lake in the 21st
Century: Dynamics of Water Temperature, Ice Phenology, Dissolved Oxygen, and
Chlorophyll a, Water Resour. Res., 54, 4681–4699, 2018.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and
the Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
Thiery, W., Stepanenko, V. M., Fang, X., Jöhnk, K. D., Li, Z., Martynov,
A., Perroud, M., Subin, Z. M., Darchambeau, F., Mironov, D., and Van Lipzig,
N. P. M.: LakeMIP Kivu: Evaluating the representation of a large, deep
tropical lake by a set of one-dimensional lake models, Tellus A, 66, 21390, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v66.21390, 2014a.
Thiery, W., Martynov, A., Darchambeau, F., Descy, J.-P., Plisnier, P.-D., Sushama, L., and van Lipzig, N. P. M.: Understanding the performance of the FLake model over two African Great Lakes, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 317–337, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-317-2014, 2014b.
Thiery, W., Davin, E. L., Panitz, H. J., Demuzere, M., Lhermitte, S., and
Van Lipzig, N.: The impact of the African Great Lakes on the regional
climate, J. Climate, 28, 4061–4085,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00565.1, 2015.
Thiery, W., Davin, E. L., Seneviratne, S. I., Bedka, K., Lhermitte, S., and
van Lipzig, N. P. M.: Hazardous thunderstorm intensification over Lake
Victoria, Nat. Commun., 7, 12786, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms12786, 2016.
Thiery, W., Gudmundsson, L., Bedka, K., Semazzi, F. H. M., Lhermitte, S., Willems, P., van Lipzig, N. P. M., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria, Env. Res. Letters, 12, 074012, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7521, 2017.
Thiery, W., Lange, S., Rogelj, J., Schleussner, C. F., Gudmundsson, L.,
Seneviratne, S. I., Andrijevic, M., Frieler, K., Emanuel, K., Geiger, T.,
Bresch, D. N., Zhao, F., Willner, S. N., Büchner, M., Volkholz, J.,
Bauer, N., Chang, J., Ciais, P., Dury, M., François, L., Grillakis, M.,
Gosling, S. N., Hanasaki, N., Hickler, T., Huber, V., Ito, A.,
Jägermeyr, J., Khabarov, N., Koutroulis, A., Liu, W., Lutz, W., Mengel,
M., Müller, C., Ostberg, S., Reyer, C. P. O., Stacke, T., and Wada, Y.:
Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes, Science, 374,
158–160, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abi7339, 2021.
Toffolon, M., Piccolroaz, S., Majone, B., Soja, A. M., Peeters, F., Schmid,
M., and Wüest, A.: Prediction of surface temperature in lakes with
different morphology using air temperature, Limnol. Oceanogr., 59,
2185–2202, https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2014.59.6.2185, 2014.
Toptunova, O., Choulga, M., and Kurzeneva, E.: Status and progress in global lake database developments, Adv. Sci. Res., 16, 57–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-57-2019, 2019.
Trolle, D., Elliott, J. A., Mooij, W. M., Janse, J. H., Bolding, K.,
Hamilton, D. P., and Jeppesen, E.: Advancing projections of phytoplankton
responses to climate change through ensemble modelling, Environ. Model.
Softw., 61, 371–379, 2014.
Umlauf, L. and Lemmin, U.: Interbasin exchange and mixing in the hypolimnion
of a large lake: The role of long internal waves, Limnol. Oceanogr., 50, 1601–1611, 2005.
Vanderkelen, I. and Schewe, J.: ISIMIP3a lakes input data, ISIMIP Repository [data set], https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.263794.1, 2020a.
Vanderkelen, I. and Schewe, J.: ISIMIP3b lakes input data, ISIMIP Repository [data set], https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.383948, 2020b.
Vanderkelen, I., van Lipzig, N. P. M., Lawrence, D. M., Droppers, B., Golub,
M., Gosling, S. N., Janssen, A. B. G., Marcé, R., Schmied, H. M.,
Perroud, M., Pierson, D., Pokhrel, Y., Satoh, Y., Schewe, J., Seneviratne,
S. I., Stepanenko, V. M., Tan, Z., Woolway, R. I., and Thiery, W.: Global
Heat Uptake by Inland Waters, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL087867,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087867, 2020.
Vanderkelen, I., van Lipzig, N. P. M., Sacks, W. J., Lawrence, D. M., Clark,
M. P., Mizukami, N., Pokhrel, Y., and Thiery, W.: Simulating the Impact of
Global Reservoir Expansion on the Present-Day Climate, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD034485, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034485, 2021.
Verpoorter, C., Kutser, T., Seekell, D. A., and Tranvik, L. J.: A global
inventory of lakes based on high-resolution satellite imagery, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 41, 6396–6402, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060641, 2014.
Wang, W., Lee, X., Xiao, W., Liu, S., Schultz, N., Wang, Y., Zhang, M., and
Zhao, L.: Global lake evaporation accelerated by changes in surface energy
allocation in a warmer climate, Nat. Geosci., 11, 410–414,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0114-8, 2018.
Wang, X., Qiu, Y., Zhang, Y., Lemmetyinen, J., Cheng, B., Liang, W., and
Leppäranta, M.: A lake ice phenology dataset for the Northern Hemisphere
based on passive microwave remote sensing, Big Earth Data, 1–19,
https://doi.org/10.1080/20964471.2021.1992916, 2021.
Weathers, K., Hanson, P. C., Arzberger, P., Brentrup, J., Brookes, J. D.,
Carey, C. C., Gaiser, E., Hamilton, D. P., Hong, G. S., Ibelings, B. W.,
Istvánovics, V., Jennings, E., Kim, B., Kratz, T., Lin, F.-P., Muraoka,
K., O'Reilly, C., Piccolo, C., Ryder, E., and Zhu, G.: The Global Lake
Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON): the evolution of grassroots network
science, Limnol. Oceanogr. Bull., 22, 71–73, 2013.
Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Livingstone, D. M., Meili, M., Jensen, O., Benson, B.
J., and Magnuson, J. J.: Large geographical differences in the sensitivity
of ice-covered lakes and rivers in the Northern Hemisphere to temperature
changes, Glob. Change Biol., 17, 268–275,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02249.x, 2011.
Winslow, L. A., Read, J. S., Hansen, G. J. A., Rose, K. C., and Robertson,
D. M.: Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent
effects of climate change on lake temperatures, Limnol. Oceanogr., 62,
2168–2178, https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.10557, 2017.
Woolway, R. I. and Merchant, C. J.: Worldwide alteration of lake mixing
regimes in response to climate change, Nat. Geosci., 12, 271–276,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0322-x, 2019.
Woolway, R. I., Merchant, C. J., Van Den Hoek, J., Azorin-Molina, C.,
Nõges, P., Laas, A., Mackay, E. B., and Jones, I. D.: Northern
Hemisphere Atmospheric Stilling Accelerates Lake Thermal Responses to a
Warming World, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 11983–11992,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082752, 2019a.
Woolway, R. I., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Schmid, M., Dokulil, M. T., de Eyto, E.,
Maberly, S. C., May, L., and Merchant, C. J.: Substantial increase in
minimum lake surface temperatures under climate change, Climatic Change, 155,
81–94, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02465-y, 2019b.
Woolway, R. I., Kraemer, B. M., Lenters, J. D., Merchant, C. J., O'Reilly,
C. M., and Sharma, S.: Global lake responses to climate change, Nat. Rev.
Earth Environ., 1, 388–403, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0067-5,
2020.
Woolway, R. I., Jennings, E., Shatwell, T., Golub, M., Pierson, D. C., and
Maberly, S. C.: Lake heatwaves under climate change, Nature, 589, 402–407,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-03119-1, 2021a.
Woolway, R. I., Sharma, S., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Debolskiy, A., Golub, M.,
Mercado-Bettín, D., Perroud, M., Stepanenko, V., Tan, Z., Grant, L.,
Ladwig, R., Mesman, J., Moore, T. N., Shatwell, T., Vanderkelen, I., Austin,
J. A., DeGasperi, C. L., Dokulil, M., La Fuente, S., Mackay, E. B.,
Schladow, S. G., Watanabe, S., Marcé, R., Pierson, D. C., Thiery, W.,
and Jennings, E.: Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate
change, Nat. Commun., 12, 2318, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22657-4,
2021b.
Woolway, R. I., Albergel, C., Frölicher, T. L., and Perroud, M.: Severe
Lake Heatwaves Attributable to Human-Induced Global Warming, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 49, e2021GL097031, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl097031, 2022.
Zwart, J. A., Hanson, Z. J., Read, J. S., Fienen, M. N., Hamlet, A. F.,
Bolster, D., and Jones, S. E.: Cross-Scale Interactions Dictate Regional
Lake Carbon Flux and Productivity Response to Future Climate, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 46, 8840–8851, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083478, 2019.
Download
The requested paper has a corresponding corrigendum published. Please read the corrigendum first before downloading the article.
- Article
(2225 KB) - Full-text XML
- Corrigendum
-
Supplement
(368 KB) - BibTeX
- EndNote
Short summary
Lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. To better understand how lakes are changing and to project their future behavior amidst various sources of uncertainty, simulations with a range of lake models are required. This in turn requires international coordination across different lake modelling teams worldwide. Here we present a protocol for and results from coordinated simulations of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide.
Lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. To better understand how lakes are changing...
