Articles | Volume 10, issue 12
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, 2017
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, 2017

Model experiment description paper 30 Nov 2017

Model experiment description paper | 30 Nov 2017

Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

Katja Frieler1, Stefan Lange1, Franziska Piontek1, Christopher P. O. Reyer1, Jacob Schewe1, Lila Warszawski1, Fang Zhao1, Louise Chini2, Sebastien Denvil3, Kerry Emanuel4, Tobias Geiger1, Kate Halladay5, George Hurtt2, Matthias Mengel1, Daisuke Murakami6, Sebastian Ostberg1,7, Alexander Popp1, Riccardo Riva8,9, Miodrag Stevanovic1, Tatsuo Suzuki10, Jan Volkholz1, Eleanor Burke5, Philippe Ciais11, Kristie Ebi12, Tyler D. Eddy13,14, Joshua Elliott15,16, Eric Galbraith17,18, Simon N. Gosling19, Fred Hattermann1, Thomas Hickler20, Jochen Hinkel21,22, Christian Hof20, Veronika Huber1, Jonas Jägermeyr1, Valentina Krysanova1, Rafael Marcé23, Hannes Müller Schmied20,24, Ioanna Mouratiadou1,25, Don Pierson26, Derek P. Tittensor13,27, Robert Vautard11, Michelle van Vliet28, Matthias F. Biber20, Richard A. Betts5,29, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky1, Delphine Deryng15,30, Steve Frolking31, Chris D. Jones5, Heike K. Lotze13, Hermann Lotze-Campen1,32, Ritvik Sahajpal2, Kirsten Thonicke1, Hanqin Tian33,34, and Yoshiki Yamagata35 Katja Frieler et al.
  • 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
  • 2Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
  • 3Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Paris, France
  • 4Program for Atmospheres, Oceans and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
  • 5Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
  • 6Department of Statistical Modeling, Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tachikawa, Japan
  • 7Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
  • 8Department Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, 2628CN Delft, the Netherlands
  • 9Climate Institute, Delft University of Technology, 2628CN Delft, the Netherlands
  • 10Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Department of Integrated Climate Change Projection Research, Yokohama, Japan
  • 11Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment, Gif sur Yvette, France
  • 12University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
  • 13Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
  • 14Nereus Program, Institute for Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
  • 15CCSR Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
  • 16Computation Institute, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
  • 17Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA) and Department of Mathematics, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, 08193 Barcelona, Spain
  • 18Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), 08010 Barcelona, Spain
  • 19School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
  • 20Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt, Germany
  • 21Global Climate Forum, 10178 Berlin, Germany
  • 22Division of Resource Economics, Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute and Berlin Workshop in Institutional Analysis of Social-Ecological Systems (WINS), Humboldt-University, Berlin, Germany
  • 23Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), Girona, Spain
  • 24Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe-University Frankfurt, Germany
  • 25Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
  • 26Uppsala University, Department of Limnology, Uppsala, Sweden
  • 27United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK
  • 28Water Systems and Global Change group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands
  • 29College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Hatherly Laboratories, Prince of Wales Road, Exeter, EX4 4PS, UK
  • 30Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
  • 31Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, USA
  • 32Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics, Berlin, Germany
  • 33International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL, USA
  • 34State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085, China
  • 35Center for Global Environmental Studies, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

Abstract. In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).

Short summary
This paper describes the simulation scenario design for the next phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is designed to facilitate a contribution to the scientific basis for the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming. ISIMIP brings together over 80 climate-impact models, covering impacts on hydrology, biomes, forests, heat-related mortality, permafrost, tropical cyclones, fisheries, agiculture, energy, and coastal infrastructure.