Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-194
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-194
Submitted as: model description paper
08 Sep 2022
Submitted as: model description paper | 08 Sep 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal GMD.

Reconstruction of past exposure to natural hazards driven by historical statistics: HANZE v2.0

Dominik Paprotny and Matthias Mengel Dominik Paprotny and Matthias Mengel
  • Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany

Abstract. Understanding and quantifying the influence of climate change on past extreme weather impacts is vital for climate litigation, the loss and damage debate, and for building more accurate models to assess future impacts. However, the effects of climate change are obscured in the observed impact data series due to the rapid evolution of the social and economic circumstances in which the extreme events occurred. The model and data presented in this study (HANZE v2.0) aims at quantifying the evolution of key socioeconomic drivers in Europe since 1870, namely land use, population, economic activity and assets. It consists of algorithms to reallocate baseline (2011) land use and population for any given year based on a large collection of historical subnational- and national-level statistics, and then disaggregate data on production and tangible assets by economic sector into a high-resolution grid. Maps generated by the model enable reconstructing exposure within the footprint of any extreme event both at the time of the event and in any other moment in the past 150 years. This allows the separation of the effects of climate change from the effects of exposure change. In addition, HANZE v2.0 can be used for assessing socio-economic influences on hazard (e.g. effects of land use-change on hydrological extremes) and vulnerability (e.g. the changing structure of assets at risk).

Dominik Paprotny and Matthias Mengel

Status: open (until 03 Nov 2022)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Dominik Paprotny and Matthias Mengel

Data sets

Pan-European exposure maps and uncertainty estimates from HANZE v2.0 model, 1870-2020 Dominik Paprotny https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6783202

HANZE v2.0 exposure model input data Dominik Paprotny https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6783023

Model code and software

HANZE v2.0 exposure model Dominik Paprotny https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6826536

Dominik Paprotny and Matthias Mengel

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Short summary
Population and economic growth over past decades have increased risk posed by natural hazards. The model presented here generates high-resolution maps of land use, population and assets (exposure) from 1870 to 2020 for 42 countries. It combines multiple methods with a large database of historical statistical data to approximate past anthropogenic environment of Europe. It enables attributing losses from past disasters to climate change by removing the influence of changes in exposure.