Articles | Volume 11, issue 11
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4383–4397, 2018
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4383–4397, 2018

Development and technical paper 01 Nov 2018

Development and technical paper | 01 Nov 2018

Bayesian earthquake dating and seismic hazard assessment using chlorine-36 measurements (BED v1)

Joakim Beck et al.

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Cited articles

Allen, J. R. M., Brandt, U., Brauer, A., Huntley, B., Keller, J., Kraml, M., Mackensen, A., Mingram, J., Negendank, J. F. W., Nowaczyk, N. R., Watts, W. A., Wulf, S., Zolitschka, B., Hubberten, H.-W., and Oberhänsli, H.: Rapid environmental changes in southern Europe during the last glacial period, Nature, 400, 740–743, 1999. a, b
Barthelmann, V., Novak, E., and Ritter, K.: High dimensional polynomial interpolation on sparse grids, Adv. Comput. Mathe., 12, 273–288, 2000. a
Beck, J., Wolfers, S., and Roberts, G. P.: Bayesian Earthquake Dating (BED) (Version 1.0.1), Zenodo,, 2018. 
Benedetti, L., Finkel, R., Papanastassiou, D., King, G., Armijo, R., Ryerson, F., Farber, D., and Flerit, F.: Post-glacial slip history of the Sparta fault (Greece) determined by 36Cl cosmogenic dating: evidence for non-periodic earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1–4,, 2002. a
Brynjarsdottir, J. and O'Hagan, A.: Learning about physical parameters: the importance of model discrepancy, Inverse Prob., 30, 114007,, 2014. a, b
Short summary
Seismic hazard assessment requires records of earthquake recurrence with many slip events. Current data from paleoseismology on individual faults are sparse and do not provide stable estimates of earthquake recurrence. We propose a statistical model-based method to study timings of earthquakes over the past few millennia. The results agree with historical earthquakes for faults in the Italian Apennines, and can aid future studies of fault interactions over multiple earthquake cycles.