Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 11, issue 11
Articles | Volume 11, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4383-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4383-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 11, issue 11
Development and technical paper
 | 
01 Nov 2018
Development and technical paper |  | 01 Nov 2018

Bayesian earthquake dating and seismic hazard assessment using chlorine-36 measurements (BED v1)

Joakim Beck, Sören Wolfers, and Gerald P. Roberts

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Short summary
Seismic hazard assessment requires records of earthquake recurrence with many slip events. Current data from paleoseismology on individual faults are sparse and do not provide stable estimates of earthquake recurrence. We propose a statistical model-based method to study timings of earthquakes over the past few millennia. The results agree with historical earthquakes for faults in the Italian Apennines, and can aid future studies of fault interactions over multiple earthquake cycles.
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