Articles | Volume 11, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4383-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4383-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
01 Nov 2018
Development and technical paper |
| 01 Nov 2018
| 01 Nov 2018
Bayesian earthquake dating and seismic hazard assessment using chlorine-36 measurements (BED v1)
Joakim Beck
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences & Engineering (CEMSE),
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
Sören Wolfers
Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences & Engineering (CEMSE),
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
Gerald P. Roberts
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Birkbeck College, University of London, WC1E 7HX, UK
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Cited
19 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A new inversion algorithm (PyMDS) based on the Pyro library to use chlorine 36 data as a paleoseismological tool on normal fault scarps M. Llinares et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.acags.2025.100234
- Earthquake history of the Milas Fault: an active dextral fault in an extensional province (SW Anatolia, Türkiye) E. Kırkan et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05733-w
- Seismic Activity of the Manisa Fault Zone in Western Turkey Constrained by Cosmogenic 36Cl Dating N. Mozafari et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11110451
- Bedrock fault roughness resolves slip increments of large earthquakes: Case studies from Central Italy O. Zielke et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2022.229502
- The Gran Sasso fault system: Paleoseismological constraints on the catastrophic 1349 earthquake in Central Italy P. Galli et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2021.229156
- Records of Ground Deformation in Northern Kefalonia Inferred from Cosmogenic 36Cl Geochronology C. Athanassas et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences15030094
- Dating of active normal fault scarps in the Büyük Menderes Graben (western Anatolia) and its implications for seismic history N. Mozafari et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.07.002
- Temporal and spatial earthquake clustering revealed through comparison of millennial strain-rates from 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating and decadal GPS strain-rate F. Iezzi et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-02131-3
- New developments in onshore paleoseismic methods, and their impact on Quaternary tectonic studies J. McCalpin et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2023.03.008
- Multi-millennia slip rate relationships between closely spaced across-strike faults: Temporal earthquake clustering of the Skinos and Pisia Faults, Greece, from in situ 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating S. Mitchell et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2025.105445
- Seismic history of western Anatolia during the last 16 kyr determined by cosmogenic 36Cl dating N. Mozafari et al. https://doi.org/10.1186/s00015-022-00408-x
- Spatial migration of temporal earthquake clusters driven by the transfer of differential stress between neighbouring fault/shear-zone structures G. Roberts et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2024.105096
- Cosmogenic 36Cl Dating of Fault Activity in East Messinia, Greece C. Athanassas et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards7010022
- Paleoseismic history of the intermountain Rieti Basin (Central Apennines, Italy) F. Livio et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-131-2026
- Determining Histories of Slip on Normal Faults With Bedrock Scarps Using Cosmogenic Nuclide Exposure Data H. Goodall et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020TC006457
- Characteristics and modelling of slip-rate variability and temporal earthquake clustering across a distributed network of active normal faults constrained by in situ 36Cl cosmogenic dating of fault scarp exhumation, central Italy G. Roberts et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2025.105391
- Aegean-style extensional deformation in the contractional southern Dinarides: incipient normal fault scarps in Montenegro P. Biermanns et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/se-13-957-2022
- Structural controls on simultaneous earthquake clustering and normal fault synchronization F. Iezzi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2025.119686
- The protocataclasite dilemma: in situ 36Cl and REE-Y lessons from an impure limestone fault scarp at Sparta, Greece B. Goodfellow et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-1343-2024
19 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A new inversion algorithm (PyMDS) based on the Pyro library to use chlorine 36 data as a paleoseismological tool on normal fault scarps M. Llinares et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.acags.2025.100234
- Earthquake history of the Milas Fault: an active dextral fault in an extensional province (SW Anatolia, Türkiye) E. Kırkan et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05733-w
- Seismic Activity of the Manisa Fault Zone in Western Turkey Constrained by Cosmogenic 36Cl Dating N. Mozafari et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11110451
- Bedrock fault roughness resolves slip increments of large earthquakes: Case studies from Central Italy O. Zielke et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2022.229502
- The Gran Sasso fault system: Paleoseismological constraints on the catastrophic 1349 earthquake in Central Italy P. Galli et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2021.229156
- Records of Ground Deformation in Northern Kefalonia Inferred from Cosmogenic 36Cl Geochronology C. Athanassas et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences15030094
- Dating of active normal fault scarps in the Büyük Menderes Graben (western Anatolia) and its implications for seismic history N. Mozafari et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.07.002
- Temporal and spatial earthquake clustering revealed through comparison of millennial strain-rates from 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating and decadal GPS strain-rate F. Iezzi et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-02131-3
- New developments in onshore paleoseismic methods, and their impact on Quaternary tectonic studies J. McCalpin et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2023.03.008
- Multi-millennia slip rate relationships between closely spaced across-strike faults: Temporal earthquake clustering of the Skinos and Pisia Faults, Greece, from in situ 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating S. Mitchell et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2025.105445
- Seismic history of western Anatolia during the last 16 kyr determined by cosmogenic 36Cl dating N. Mozafari et al. https://doi.org/10.1186/s00015-022-00408-x
- Spatial migration of temporal earthquake clusters driven by the transfer of differential stress between neighbouring fault/shear-zone structures G. Roberts et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2024.105096
- Cosmogenic 36Cl Dating of Fault Activity in East Messinia, Greece C. Athanassas et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards7010022
- Paleoseismic history of the intermountain Rieti Basin (Central Apennines, Italy) F. Livio et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-131-2026
- Determining Histories of Slip on Normal Faults With Bedrock Scarps Using Cosmogenic Nuclide Exposure Data H. Goodall et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020TC006457
- Characteristics and modelling of slip-rate variability and temporal earthquake clustering across a distributed network of active normal faults constrained by in situ 36Cl cosmogenic dating of fault scarp exhumation, central Italy G. Roberts et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2025.105391
- Aegean-style extensional deformation in the contractional southern Dinarides: incipient normal fault scarps in Montenegro P. Biermanns et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/se-13-957-2022
- Structural controls on simultaneous earthquake clustering and normal fault synchronization F. Iezzi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2025.119686
- The protocataclasite dilemma: in situ 36Cl and REE-Y lessons from an impure limestone fault scarp at Sparta, Greece B. Goodfellow et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-1343-2024
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 05 Aug 2026
Short summary
Seismic hazard assessment requires records of earthquake recurrence with many slip events. Current data from paleoseismology on individual faults are sparse and do not provide stable estimates of earthquake recurrence. We propose a statistical model-based method to study timings of earthquakes over the past few millennia. The results agree with historical earthquakes for faults in the Italian Apennines, and can aid future studies of fault interactions over multiple earthquake cycles.
Seismic hazard assessment requires records of earthquake recurrence with many slip events....
