Articles | Volume 14, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1493-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1493-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
16 Mar 2021
Model evaluation paper |
| 16 Mar 2021
| 16 Mar 2021
Using Shapley additive explanations to interpret extreme gradient boosting predictions of grassland degradation in Xilingol, China
Department of Geography, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter
den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany
Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF),
Eberswalder Straße 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
Ralf Wieland
Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF),
Eberswalder Straße 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
Tobia Lakes
Department of Geography, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter
den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany
Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of
Human-Environment Systems, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin,
Friedrichstraße 191, 10099 Berlin, Germany
Claas Nendel
Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF),
Eberswalder Straße 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of
Human-Environment Systems, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin,
Friedrichstraße 191, 10099 Berlin, Germany
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Roland Baatz, Gohar Ghazaryan, Michael Hagenlocher, Claas Nendel, Andrea Toreti, and Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1379–1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1379-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1379-2025, 2025
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Our global review of 130 000 peer-reviewed articles reveals that drought forecasting and plant genetics dominate drought research priorities. Using topic modelling, we traced evolving themes from 1901 to 2022, highlighting a shift from ecology to cutting-edge technologies. By applying unsupervised machine learning, we offer insights into how integrated approaches matter, guiding future priorities to strengthen drought resilience and to safeguard water resources.
Fabio Brill, Pedro Henrique Lima Alencar, Huihui Zhang, Friedrich Boeing, Silke Hüttel, and Tobia Lakes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4237–4265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4237-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4237-2024, 2024
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Droughts are a threat to agricultural crops, but different factors influence how much damage occurs. This is important to know to create meaningful risk maps and to evaluate adaptation options. We investigate the years 2013–2022 in Brandenburg, Germany, and find in particular the soil quality and meteorological drought in June to be statistically related to the observed damage. Measurement of crop health from satellites is also related to soil quality and not necessarily to anomalous yields.
Konstantin Aiteew, Jarno Rouhiainen, Claas Nendel, and René Dechow
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1349–1385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1349-2024, 2024
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This study evaluated the biogeochemical model MONICA and its performance in simulating soil organic carbon changes. MONICA can reproduce plant growth, carbon and nitrogen dynamics, soil water and temperature. The model results were compared with five established carbon turnover models. With the exception of certain sites, adequate reproduction of soil organic carbon stock change rates was achieved. The MONICA model was capable of performing similar to or even better than the other models.
Wei Weng, Matthias K. B. Luedeke, Delphine C. Zemp, Tobia Lakes, and Juergen P. Kropp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 911–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-911-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-911-2018, 2018
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We provide a detailed spatial analysis of hydrological impacts of land use change in Amazonia, focusing on the aspect of
aerial rivers. Our approach of observation-based atmospheric moisture tracking allows us to recognize potential teleconnection between source and sink regions of atmospheric moisture. Relying on a quantitative assessment, we identified regions where water availability is most sensitive to land use change and regions where land use change is critical for a given sink region.
T. K. Lissner, D. E. Reusser, J. Schewe, T. Lakes, and J. P. Kropp
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-355-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-355-2014, 2014
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Climate change will have impacts on many different sectors of society, but a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable. This paper presents the AHEAD approach, which allows for relating impacts of climate change to 16 dimensions of livelihoods and well-being. Using the example of changes in water availability, the results show how climate change impacts AHEAD. The approach also provides a tool to frame uncertainties from climate models.
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The creation of advanced mapping models for forest attributes, utilizing remote sensing data and incorporating machine or deep learning methods, has become a key area of interest in the domain of forest observation and monitoring. This paper introduces a method where we blend and collectively interpret five models dedicated to estimating forest canopy height. We achieve this through Bayesian model averaging, offering a comprehensive analysis of these remote-sensing-based products.
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Elena Tomasi, Gabriele Franch, and Marco Cristoforetti
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Ezequiel Cimadevilla, Bryan Lawrence, and Antonio Santiago Cofiño
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Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) stores an enormous amount of climate data spread across millions of files in data centers all over the world. Accessing and working with this scientific information is quite complex. This work presents ESGF Virtual Aggregation, an approach that combines data from different sources into a format that is ready for analysis straight away.
Trish Ewa Nowak, Andy T. Augousti, Benno I. Simmons, and Stefan Siegert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2406.11754, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2406.11754, 2024
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Described here DustNet model uses advanced neural networks to accurately predict the Saharan dust transport in the atmosphere. It offers fast and precise forecasts with predictions achieved in just 2.1 seconds on a standard computer. This innovative approach outperforms traditional models, which take hours to produce a forecast and use high energy super-computers. By making high-quality dust monitoring accessible and efficient, DustNet can improve weather, climate and air quality forecasts.
Carles Milà, Marvin Ludwig, Edzer Pebesma, Cathryn Tonne, and Hanna Meyer
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Spatial proxies, such as coordinates and distances, are often used as predictors in random forest models for predictive mapping. In a simulation and two case studies, we investigated the conditions under which their use is appropriate. We found that spatial proxies are not always beneficial and should not be used as a default approach without careful consideration. We also provide insights into the reasons behind their suitability, how to detect them, and potential alternatives.
Chunhua Jiang, Xiang Gao, Huizhong Zhu, Shuaimin Wang, Sixuan Liu, Shaoni Chen, and Guangsheng Liu
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With ERA5 hourly data, we show spatiotemporal characteristics of pressure and zenith wet delay (ZWD) and propose an empirical global pressure and ZWD grid model with a broader operating space which can provide accurate pressure, ZWD, zenith hydrostatic delay, and zenith tropospheric delay estimates for any selected time and location over globe. IGPZWD will be of great significance for the tropospheric augmentation in real-time GNSS positioning and atmospheric water vapor remote sensing.
Jan Linnenbrink, Carles Milà, Marvin Ludwig, and Hanna Meyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5897–5912, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5897-2024, 2024
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Estimation of map accuracy based on cross-validation (CV) in spatial modelling is pervasive but controversial. Here, we build upon our previous work and propose a novel, prediction-oriented k-fold CV strategy for map accuracy estimation in which the distribution of geographical distances between prediction and training points is taken into account when constructing the CV folds. Our method produces more reliable estimates than other CV methods and can be used for large datasets.
Lars Hoffmann, Kaveh Haghighi Mood, Andreas Herten, Markus Hrywniak, Jiri Kraus, Jan Clemens, and Mingzhao Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4077–4094, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4077-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4077-2024, 2024
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Lagrangian particle dispersion models are key for studying atmospheric transport but can be computationally intensive. To speed up simulations, the MPTRAC model was ported to graphics processing units (GPUs). Performance optimization of data structures and memory alignment resulted in runtime improvements of up to 75 % on NVIDIA A100 GPUs for ERA5-based simulations with 100 million particles. These optimizations make the MPTRAC model well suited for future high-performance computing systems.
Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin and Juergen Gall
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2987–3023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2987-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2987-2024, 2024
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In this study, we use deep learning and a climate simulation to predict the vegetation health as it would be observed from satellites. We found that the developed model can help to identify regions with a high risk of agricultural drought. The main applications of this study are to estimate vegetation products for periods where no satellite data are available and to forecast the future vegetation response to climate change based on climate scenarios.
Vitaliy Ogarko, Kim Frankcombe, Taige Liu, Jeremie Giraud, Roland Martin, and Mark Jessell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2325–2345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2325-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2325-2024, 2024
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We present a major release of the Tomofast-x open-source gravity and magnetic inversion code that is enhancing its performance and applicability for both industrial and academic studies. We focus on real-world mineral exploration scenarios, while offering flexibility for applications at regional scale or for crustal studies. The optimisation work described in this paper is fundamental to allowing more complete descriptions of the controls on magnetisation, including remanence.
Jonathan Hobbs, Matthias Katzfuss, Hai Nguyen, Vineet Yadav, and Junjie Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1133–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1133-2024, 2024
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The cycling of carbon among the land, oceans, and atmosphere is a closely monitored process in the global climate system. These exchanges between the atmosphere and the surface can be quantified using a combination of atmospheric carbon dioxide observations and computer models. This study presents a statistical method for investigating the similarities and differences in the estimated surface–atmosphere carbon exchange when different computer model assumptions are invoked.
Jiateng Guo, Zhibin Liu, Xulei Wang, Lixin Wu, Shanjun Liu, and Yunqiang Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 847–864, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-847-2024, 2024
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This study proposes a 3D and temporally dynamic (4D) geological modeling method. Several simulation and actual cases show that the 4D spatial and temporal evolution of regional geological formations can be modeled easily using this method with smooth boundaries. The 4D modeling system can dynamically present the regional geological evolution process under the timeline, which will be helpful to the research and teaching on the formation of typical and complex geological features.
Catherine O. de Burgh-Day and Tennessee Leeuwenburg
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6433–6477, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6433-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6433-2023, 2023
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Machine learning (ML) is an increasingly popular tool in the field of weather and climate modelling. While ML has been used in this space for a long time, it is only recently that ML approaches have become competitive with more traditional methods. In this review, we have summarized the use of ML in weather and climate modelling over time; provided an overview of key ML concepts, methodologies, and terms; and suggested promising avenues for further research.
Danica L. Lombardozzi, William R. Wieder, Negin Sobhani, Gordon B. Bonan, David Durden, Dawn Lenz, Michael SanClements, Samantha Weintraub-Leff, Edward Ayres, Christopher R. Florian, Kyla Dahlin, Sanjiv Kumar, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claire M. Zarakas, Charles Vardeman, and Valerio Pascucci
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5979–6000, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5979-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5979-2023, 2023
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We present a novel cyberinfrastructure system that uses National Ecological Observatory Network measurements to run Community Terrestrial System Model point simulations in a containerized system. The simple interface and tutorials expand access to data and models used in Earth system research by removing technical barriers and facilitating research, educational opportunities, and community engagement. The NCAR–NEON system enables convergence of climate and ecological sciences.
Qianqian Han, Yijian Zeng, Lijie Zhang, Calimanut-Ionut Cira, Egor Prikaziuk, Ting Duan, Chao Wang, Brigitta Szabó, Salvatore Manfreda, Ruodan Zhuang, and Bob Su
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5825–5845, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5825-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5825-2023, 2023
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Using machine learning, we estimated global surface soil moisture (SSM) to aid in understanding water, energy, and carbon exchange. Ensemble models outperformed individual algorithms in predicting SSM under different climates. The best-performing ensemble included K-neighbours Regressor, Random Forest Regressor, and Extreme Gradient Boosting. This is important for hydrological and climatological applications such as water cycle monitoring, irrigation management, and crop yield prediction.
Xiaoyi Shao, Siyuan Ma, and Chong Xu
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5113–5129, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5113-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5113-2023, 2023
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Scientific understandings of the distribution of coseismic landslides, followed by emergency and medium- and long-term risk assessment, can reduce landslide risk. The aim of this study is to propose an improved three-stage spatial prediction strategy and develop corresponding hazard assessment software called Mat.LShazard V1.0, which provides a new application tool for coseismic landslide disaster prevention and mitigation in different stages.
Junda Zhan, Sensen Wu, Jin Qi, Jindi Zeng, Mengjiao Qin, Yuanyuan Wang, and Zhenhong Du
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2777–2794, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2777-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2777-2023, 2023
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We develop a generalized spatial autoregressive neural network model used for three-dimensional spatial interpolation. Taking the different changing trend of geographic elements along various directions into consideration, the model defines spatial distance in a generalized way and integrates it into the process of spatial interpolation with the theories of spatial autoregression and neural network. Compared with traditional methods, the model achieves better performance and is more adaptable.
Dominikus Heinzeller, Ligia Bernardet, Grant Firl, Man Zhang, Xia Sun, and Michael Ek
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2235–2259, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2235-2023, 2023
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The Common Community Physics Package is a collection of physical atmospheric parameterizations for use in Earth system models and a framework that couples the physics to a host model’s dynamical core. A primary goal for this effort is to facilitate research and development of physical parameterizations and physics–dynamics coupling methods while offering capabilities for numerical weather prediction operations, for example in the upcoming implementation of the Global Forecast System (GFS) v17.
Tobias Tesch, Stefan Kollet, and Jochen Garcke
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2149–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2149-2023, 2023
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A recent statistical approach for studying relations in the Earth system is to train deep learning (DL) models to predict Earth system variables given one or several others and use interpretable DL to analyze the relations learned by the models. Here, we propose to combine the approach with a theorem from causality research to ensure that the deep learning model learns causal rather than spurious relations. As an example, we apply the method to study soil-moisture–precipitation coupling.
Yao Hu, Chirantan Ghosh, and Siamak Malakpour-Estalaki
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1925–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1925-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1925-2023, 2023
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Data-driven models (DDMs) gain popularity in earth and environmental systems, thanks in large part to advancements in data collection techniques and artificial intelligence (AI). The performance of these models is determined by the underlying machine learning (ML) algorithms. In this study, we develop a framework to improve the model performance by optimizing ML algorithms and demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework using a DDM to predict edge-of-field runoff in the Maumee domain, USA.
Ruidong Li, Ting Sun, Fuqiang Tian, and Guang-Heng Ni
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 751–778, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-751-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-751-2023, 2023
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We developed SHAFTS (Simultaneous building Height And FootprinT extraction from Sentinel imagery), a multi-task deep-learning-based Python package, to estimate average building height and footprint from Sentinel imagery. Evaluation in 46 cities worldwide shows that SHAFTS achieves significant improvement over existing machine-learning-based methods.
Feng Yin, Philip E. Lewis, and Jose L. Gómez-Dans
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7933–7976, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7933-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7933-2022, 2022
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The proposed SIAC atmospheric correction method provides consistent surface reflectance estimations from medium spatial-resolution satellites (Sentinel 2 and Landsat 8) with per-pixel uncertainty information. The outputs from SIAC have been validated against a wide range of ground measurements, and it shows that SIAC can provide accurate estimations of both surface reflectance and atmospheric parameters, with meaningful uncertainty information.
Martina Stockhause and Michael Lautenschlager
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6047–6058, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6047-2022, 2022
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The Data Distribution Centre (DDC) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) celebrates its 25th anniversary in 2022. DDC Partner DKRZ has supported the IPCC Assessments and preserved the quality-assured, citable climate model data underpinning the Assessment Reports over these years over the long term. With the introduction of the IPCC FAIR Guidelines into the current AR6, the value of DDC services has been recognized. However, DDC sustainability remains unresolved.
Daiane Iglesia Dolci, Felipe A. G. Silva, Pedro S. Peixoto, and Ernani V. Volpe
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5857–5881, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5857-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5857-2022, 2022
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We investigate and compare the theoretical and computational characteristics of several absorbing boundary conditions (ABCs) for the full-waveform inversion (FWI) problem. The different ABCs are implemented in an optimized computational framework called Devito. The computational efficiency and memory requirements of the ABC methods are evaluated in the forward and adjoint wave propagators, from simple to realistic velocity models.
Mauro Rossi, Txomin Bornaetxea, and Paola Reichenbach
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5651–5666, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5651-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5651-2022, 2022
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LAND-SUITE is a software package designed to support landslide susceptibility zonation. The software integrates, extends, and completes LAND-SE (Rossi et al., 2010; Rossi and Reichenbach, 2016). The software is implemented in R, a free software environment for statistical computing and graphics, and gives expert users the possibility to perform easier, more flexible, and more informed statistically based landslide susceptibility applications and zonations.
Ashesh Chattopadhyay, Mustafa Mustafa, Pedram Hassanzadeh, Eviatar Bach, and Karthik Kashinath
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2221–2237, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2221-2022, 2022
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There is growing interest in data-driven weather forecasting, i.e., to predict the weather by using a deep neural network that learns from the evolution of past atmospheric patterns. Here, we propose three components to add to the current data-driven weather forecast models to improve their performance. These components involve a feature that incorporates physics into the neural network, a method to add data assimilation, and an algorithm to use several different time intervals in the forecast.
Paul F. Baumeister and Lars Hoffmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1855–1874, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1855-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1855-2022, 2022
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The efficiency of the numerical simulation of radiative transport is shown on modern server-class graphics cards (GPUs). The low-cost prefactor on GPUs compared to general-purpose processors (CPUs) enables future large retrieval campaigns for multi-channel data from infrared sounders aboard low-orbit satellites. The validated research software JURASSIC is available in the public domain.
Gregory E. Tucker, Eric W. H. Hutton, Mark D. Piper, Benjamin Campforts, Tian Gan, Katherine R. Barnhart, Albert J. Kettner, Irina Overeem, Scott D. Peckham, Lynn McCready, and Jaia Syvitski
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1413–1439, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1413-2022, 2022
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Scientists use computer simulation models to understand how Earth surface processes work, including floods, landslides, soil erosion, river channel migration, ocean sedimentation, and coastal change. Research benefits when the software for simulation modeling is open, shared, and coordinated. The Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS) is a US-based facility that supports research by providing community support, computing tools and guidelines, and educational resources.
Danilo César de Mello, Gustavo Vieira Veloso, Marcos Guedes de Lana, Fellipe Alcantara de Oliveira Mello, Raul Roberto Poppiel, Diego Ribeiro Oquendo Cabrero, Luis Augusto Di Loreto Di Raimo, Carlos Ernesto Gonçalves Reynaud Schaefer, Elpídio Inácio Fernandes Filho, Emilson Pereira Leite, and José Alexandre Melo Demattê
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1219–1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1219-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1219-2022, 2022
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We used soil parent material, terrain attributes, and geophysical data from the soil surface to test and compare different and unprecedented geophysical sensor combination, as well as different machine learning algorithms to model and predict several soil attributes. Also, we analyzed the importance of pedoenvironmental variables. The soil attributes were modeled throughout different machine learning algorithms and related to different geophysical sensor combinations.
Duncan Watson-Parris, Andrew Williams, Lucia Deaconu, and Philip Stier
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7659–7672, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7659-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7659-2021, 2021
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The Earth System Emulator (ESEm) provides a fast and flexible framework for emulating a wide variety of Earth science datasets and tools for constraining (or tuning) models of any complexity. Three distinct use cases are presented that demonstrate the utility of ESEm and provide some insight into the use of machine learning for emulation in these different settings. The open-source Python package is freely available so that it might become a valuable tool for the community.
Chongyang Wang, Li Wang, Danni Wang, Dan Li, Chenghu Zhou, Hao Jiang, Qiong Zheng, Shuisen Chen, Kai Jia, Yangxiaoyue Liu, Ji Yang, Xia Zhou, and Yong Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6833–6846, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6833-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6833-2021, 2021
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The turbidity maximum zone (TMZ) is a special phenomenon in estuaries worldwide. However, the extraction methods and criteria used to describe the TMZ vary significantly both spatially and temporally. This study proposes an new index, the turbidity maximum zone index, based on the corresponding relationship of total suspended solid concentration and Chl a concentration, which could better extract TMZs in different estuaries and on different dates.
Ranee Joshi, Kavitha Madaiah, Mark Jessell, Mark Lindsay, and Guillaume Pirot
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6711–6740, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6711-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6711-2021, 2021
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We have developed a software that allows the user to extract and standardize drill hole information from legacy datasets and/or different drilling campaigns. It also provides functionality to upscale the lithological information. These functionalities were possible by developing thesauri to identify and group geological terminologies together.
David Meyer, Thomas Nagler, and Robin J. Hogan
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5205–5215, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5205-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5205-2021, 2021
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A major limitation in training machine-learning emulators is often caused by the lack of data. This paper presents a cheap way to increase the size of training datasets using statistical techniques and thereby improve the performance of machine-learning emulators.
Mark Jessell, Vitaliy Ogarko, Yohan de Rose, Mark Lindsay, Ranee Joshi, Agnieszka Piechocka, Lachlan Grose, Miguel de la Varga, Laurent Ailleres, and Guillaume Pirot
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5063–5092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5063-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5063-2021, 2021
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We have developed software that allows the user to extract sufficient information from unmodified digital maps and associated datasets that we are able to use to automatically build 3D geological models. By automating the process we are able to remove human bias from the procedure, which makes the workflow reproducible.
Martí Bosch, Maxence Locatelli, Perrine Hamel, Roy P. Remme, Jérôme Chenal, and Stéphane Joost
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3521–3537, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3521-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3521-2021, 2021
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The article presents a novel approach to simulate urban heat mitigation from land use/land cover data based on three biophysical mechanisms: tree shade, evapotranspiration and albedo. An automated procedure is proposed to calibrate the model parameters to best fit temperature observations from monitoring stations. A case study in Lausanne, Switzerland, shows that the approach outperforms regressions based on satellite data and provides valuable insights into design heat mitigation policies.
Quang-Van Doan, Hiroyuki Kusaka, Takuto Sato, and Fei Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2097–2111, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2097-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2097-2021, 2021
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This study proposes a novel structural self-organizing map (S-SOM) algorithm. The superiority of S-SOM is that it can better recognize the difference (or similarity) among spatial (or temporal) data used for training and thus improve the clustering quality compared to traditional SOM algorithms.
Juan A. Añel, Michael García-Rodríguez, and Javier Rodeiro
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 923–934, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-923-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-923-2021, 2021
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This work shows that it continues to be hard, if not impossible, to obtain some of the most used climate models worldwide. We reach this conclusion through a systematic study and encourage all development teams and research centres to make public the models they use to produce scientific results.
Prabhat, Karthik Kashinath, Mayur Mudigonda, Sol Kim, Lukas Kapp-Schwoerer, Andre Graubner, Ege Karaismailoglu, Leo von Kleist, Thorsten Kurth, Annette Greiner, Ankur Mahesh, Kevin Yang, Colby Lewis, Jiayi Chen, Andrew Lou, Sathyavat Chandran, Ben Toms, Will Chapman, Katherine Dagon, Christine A. Shields, Travis O'Brien, Michael Wehner, and William Collins
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 107–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-107-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-107-2021, 2021
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Detecting extreme weather events is a crucial step in understanding how they change due to climate change. Deep learning (DL) is remarkable at pattern recognition; however, it works best only when labeled datasets are available. We create
ClimateNet– an expert-labeled curated dataset – to train a DL model for detecting weather events and predicting changes in extreme precipitation. This work paves the way for DL-based automated, high-fidelity, and highly precise analytics of climate data.
Xiang Que, Xiaogang Ma, Chao Ma, and Qiyu Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6149–6164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6149-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6149-2020, 2020
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This paper presents a spatiotemporal weighted regression (STWR) model for exploring nonstationary spatiotemporal processes in nature and socioeconomics. A value change rate is introduced in the temporal kernel, which presents significant model fitting and accuracy in both simulated and real-world data. STWR fully incorporates observed data in the past and outperforms geographic temporal weighted regression (GTWR) and geographic weighted regression (GWR) models in several experiments.
Sheri Mickelson, Alice Bertini, Gary Strand, Kevin Paul, Eric Nienhouse, John Dennis, and Mariana Vertenstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5567–5581, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5567-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5567-2020, 2020
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Every generation of MIP exercises introduces new layers of complexity and an exponential growth in the amount of data requested. CMIP6 required us to develop a new tool chain and forced us to change our methodologies. The new methods discussed in this paper provided us with an 18 times faster speedup over our existing methods. This allowed us to meet our deadlines and we were able to publish more than half a million data sets on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for the CMIP6 project.
Benjamin Campforts, Charles M. Shobe, Philippe Steer, Matthias Vanmaercke, Dimitri Lague, and Jean Braun
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3863–3886, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3863-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3863-2020, 2020
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Landslides shape the Earth’s surface and are a dominant source of terrestrial sediment. Rivers, then, act as conveyor belts evacuating landslide-produced sediment. Understanding the interaction among rivers and landslides is important to predict the Earth’s surface response to past and future environmental changes and for mitigating natural hazards. We develop HyLands, a new numerical model that provides a toolbox to explore how landslides and rivers interact over several timescales.
Jorge Vicent, Jochem Verrelst, Neus Sabater, Luis Alonso, Juan Pablo Rivera-Caicedo, Luca Martino, Jordi Muñoz-Marí, and José Moreno
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1945–1957, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1945-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1945-2020, 2020
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The modeling of light propagation through the atmosphere is key to process satellite images and to understand atmospheric processes. However, existing atmospheric models can be complex to use in practical applications. Here we aim at providing a new software tool to facilitate using advanced models and to generate large databases of simulated data. As a test case, we use this tool to analyze differences between several atmospheric models, showing the capabilities of this open-source tool.
Jiali Wang, Prasanna Balaprakash, and Rao Kotamarthi
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4261–4274, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4261-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4261-2019, 2019
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Parameterizations are frequently used in models representing physical phenomena and are often the computationally expensive portions of the code. Using model output from simulations performed using a weather model, we train deep neural networks to provide an accurate alternative to a physics-based parameterization. We demonstrate that a domain-aware deep neural network can successfully simulate the entire diurnal cycle of the boundary layer physics and the results are transferable.
Gianandrea Mannarini and Lorenzo Carelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3449–3480, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3449-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3449-2019, 2019
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The VISIR ship-routing model is updated in order to deal with ocean currents.
The optimal tracks we computed through VISIR in the Atlantic ocean show great seasonal and regional variability, following a variable influence of surface gravity waves and currents. We assess how these tracks contribute to voyage energy-efficiency gains through a standard indicator (EEOI) of the International Maritime Organization. Also, the new model features are validated against an exact analytical benchmark.
Grzegorz Muszynski, Karthik Kashinath, Vitaliy Kurlin, Michael Wehner, and Prabhat
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 613–628, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-613-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-613-2019, 2019
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We present the automated method for recognizing atmospheric rivers in climate data, i.e., climate model output and reanalysis product. The method is based on topological data analysis and machine learning, both of which are powerful tools that the climate science community often does not use. An advantage of the proposed method is that it is free of selection of subjective threshold conditions on a physical variable. This method is also suitable for rapidly analyzing large amounts of data.
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Short summary
Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) can provide alternative insights that conventional land-use models are unable to generate. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) can interpret the results of the purely data-driven approach. XGBoost achieved similar and robust simulation results. SHAP values were useful for analysing the complex relationship between the different drivers of grassland degradation.
Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) can provide alternative insights that conventional land-use...
