Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
Review and perspective paper
21 Mar 2023
Review and perspective paper |  | 21 Mar 2023

Addressing challenges in uncertainty quantification: the case of geohazard assessments

Ibsen Chivata Cardenas, Terje Aven, and Roger Flage

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Cited articles

Albert, C. G., Callies, U., and von Toussaint, U.: A Bayesian approach to the estimation of parameters and their interdependencies in environmental modeling, Entropy, 24, 231,, 2022. 
Alley, R. B.: Abrupt climate change, Sci. Am., 291, 62–69,, 2004. 
Apeland, S., Aven, T., and Nilsen, T.: Quantifying uncertainty under a predictive, epistemic approach to risk analysis, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 75, 93–102,, 2002. 
Aven, T.: On the need for restricting the probabilistic analysis in risk assessments to variability, Risk Anal., 30, 354–360,, 2010. 
Aven, T.: Practical implications of the new risk perspectives, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 115, 136–145,, 2013. 
Executive editor
This paper provides a review of uncertainty quantification, with particular application to geohazard modelling. It provides a review of the state of this field along with a large set of references to current and established literature in this area.
Short summary
We discuss challenges in uncertainty quantification for geohazard assessments. The challenges arise from limited data and the one-off nature of geohazard features. The challenges include the credibility of predictions, input uncertainty, and assumptions’ impact. Considerations to increase credibility of the quantification are provided. Crucial tasks in the quantification are the exhaustive scrutiny of the background knowledge coupled with the assessment of deviations of assumptions made.