Articles | Volume 8, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-4027-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-4027-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
16 Dec 2015
Model description paper |
| 16 Dec 2015
r.randomwalk v1, a multi-functional conceptual tool for mass movement routing
Geomorphological Systems and Risk Research, Department of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Universitätsstraße 7, 1190 Vienna, Austria
Institute of Applied Geology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Peter-Jordan-Straße 70, 1190 Vienna, Austria
J. Krenn
Institute of Applied Geology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Peter-Jordan-Straße 70, 1190 Vienna, Austria
Department of Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand
H.-J. Chu
Department of Geomatics, National Cheng Kung University, 1 University Road, Tainan 701, Taiwan
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Martin Mergili, Hanna Pfeffer, Andreas Kellerer-Pirklbauer, Christian Zangerl, and Shiva Prasad Pudasaini
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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We present a new version of the landslide model r.avaflow. It includes a model where different materials move on top of each other instead of mixing; a model supporting the entire range from block sliding to flowing; a model for slow-moving processes; and an interface for virtual reality visualization. Based on the results for four case studies we conclude that, at the moment, our enhancements are very useful for visualization of landslides for awareness building and environmental education.
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The 1987 Parraguirre ice-rock avalanche developed into a devastating debris-flow causing loss of many lives and inflicting severe damage near Santiago, Chile. Here, we revise this event combining various observational records with modelling techniques. In this year, important snow cover coincided with warm days in spring. We further quantify the total solid volume, and forward important upward corrections for the trigger and flood volumes. Finally, river damming was key for high flow mobility.
Sonam Rinzin, Stuart Dunning, Rachel Carr, Ashim Sattar, and Martin Mergili
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1819, 2024
Short summary
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We evaluated the sensitivity of model outputs to input parameter uncertainties by performing multiple GLOF simulations using the r.avaflow model. We found out that GLOF modelling outputs are highly sensitive to six parameters: volume of mass movements entering lakes, DEM datasets, origin of mass movements, mesh size, basal frictional angle, and entrainment coefficient. Future modelling should carefully consider the output uncertainty from these sensitive parameters.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2461–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2461-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2461-2021, 2021
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The Köfels rockslide in the Ötztal Valley (Austria) represents the largest known extremely rapid rockslide in metamorphic rock masses in the Alps and was formed in the early Holocene. Although many hypotheses for the conditioning and triggering factors were discussed in the past, until now no scientifically accepted explanatory model has been found. This study provides new data and numerical modelling results to better understand the cause and triggering factors of this gigantic natural event.
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This paper reports on a recent glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event that occurred on 26 June 2020 in Tibet, China. We find that this event was triggered by a debris landslide from a steep lateral moraine. As the relationship between the long-term evolution of the lake and its likely landslide trigger revealed by a time series of satellite images, this case provides strong evidence that it can be plausibly linked to anthropogenic climate change.
Johnnatan Palacio Cordoba, Martin Mergili, and Edier Aristizábal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 815–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, 2020
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Landslides triggered by rainfall are very common phenomena in complex tropical environments such as the Colombian Andes. In this work, we perform probabilistic analyses with r.slope.stability for landslide susceptibility analysis. We test the model in the La Arenosa catchment, northern Colombian Andes. The results are compared to those yielded with the corresponding deterministic analyses and with other physically based models applied in the same catchment.
Martin Mergili, Michel Jaboyedoff, José Pullarello, and Shiva P. Pudasaini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 505–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-505-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-505-2020, 2020
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Computer simulations of complex landslide processes in mountain areas are important for informing risk management but are at the same time challenging in terms of parameterization and physical and numerical model implementation. Using the tool r.avaflow, we highlight the progress and the challenges with regard to such simulations on the example of the Piz Cengalo–Bondo landslide cascade in Switzerland, which started as an initial rockslide–rockfall and finally evolved into a debris flow.
Martin Mergili, Shiva P. Pudasaini, Adam Emmer, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Alejo Cochachin, and Holger Frey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 93–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, 2020
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In 1941, the glacial lagoon Lake Palcacocha in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) drained suddenly. The resulting outburst flood/debris flow consumed another lake and had a disastrous impact on the town of Huaraz 23 km downstream. We reconstuct this event through a numerical model to learn about the possibility of prediction of similar processes in the future. Remaining challenges consist of the complex process interactions and the lack of experience due to the rare occurrence of such process chains.
Ekrem Canli, Martin Mergili, Benni Thiebes, and Thomas Glade
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2183–2202, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2183-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2183-2018, 2018
Short summary
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Regional-scale landslide forecasting traditionally strongly relies on empirical approaches and landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. Today, probabilistic methods utilizing ensemble predictions are frequently used for flood forecasting. In our study, we specify how such an approach could also be applied for landslide forecasts and for operational landslide forecasting and early warning systems. To this end, we implemented a physically based landslide model in a probabilistic framework.
Martin Mergili, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Julia Krenn, and Shiva P. Pudasaini
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 553–569, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-553-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-553-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
r.avaflow represents a GIS-based, multi-functional open-source tool for the simulation of debris flows, rock avalanches, snow avalanches, or two-phase (solid and fluid) process chains. It further facilitates parameter studies and validation of the simulation results against observed patterns. r.avaflow shall inform strategies to reduce the risks related to the interaction of mass flow processes with society.
M. Mergili and H.-J. Chu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5677-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5677-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We propose a procedure to compute an integrated spatial landslide probability, combining release and propagation. The zonal release probability is introduced to correct the pixel-based release probability for the size of the release zone relevant for a pixel. For a test area in Taiwan we observe that the model performs moderately well in predicting the observed landslides and that the size of the release zone influences the result to a much higher degree than the pixel-based release probability.
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The article deals with strategies to (i) reduce computation time and to (ii) appropriately account for uncertain input parameters when applying an open source GIS sliding surface model to estimate landslide susceptibility for a 90km² study area in central Italy. For (i), the area is split into a large number of tiles, enabling the exploitation of multi-processor computing environments. For (ii), the model is run with various parameter combinations to compute the slope failure probability.
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new version of the landslide model r.avaflow. It includes a model where different materials move on top of each other instead of mixing; a model supporting the entire range from block sliding to flowing; a model for slow-moving processes; and an interface for virtual reality visualization. Based on the results for four case studies we conclude that, at the moment, our enhancements are very useful for visualization of landslides for awareness building and environmental education.
Johannes Jakob Fürst, David Farías-Barahona, Thomas Bruckner, Lucia Scaff, Martin Mergili, Santiago Montserrat, and Humberto Peña
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3103, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
The 1987 Parraguirre ice-rock avalanche developed into a devastating debris-flow causing loss of many lives and inflicting severe damage near Santiago, Chile. Here, we revise this event combining various observational records with modelling techniques. In this year, important snow cover coincided with warm days in spring. We further quantify the total solid volume, and forward important upward corrections for the trigger and flood volumes. Finally, river damming was key for high flow mobility.
Sonam Rinzin, Stuart Dunning, Rachel Carr, Ashim Sattar, and Martin Mergili
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1819, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the sensitivity of model outputs to input parameter uncertainties by performing multiple GLOF simulations using the r.avaflow model. We found out that GLOF modelling outputs are highly sensitive to six parameters: volume of mass movements entering lakes, DEM datasets, origin of mass movements, mesh size, basal frictional angle, and entrainment coefficient. Future modelling should carefully consider the output uncertainty from these sensitive parameters.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Christian Zangerl, Annemarie Schneeberger, Georg Steiner, and Martin Mergili
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2461–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2461-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2461-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Köfels rockslide in the Ötztal Valley (Austria) represents the largest known extremely rapid rockslide in metamorphic rock masses in the Alps and was formed in the early Holocene. Although many hypotheses for the conditioning and triggering factors were discussed in the past, until now no scientifically accepted explanatory model has been found. This study provides new data and numerical modelling results to better understand the cause and triggering factors of this gigantic natural event.
Guoxiong Zheng, Martin Mergili, Adam Emmer, Simon Allen, Anming Bao, Hao Guo, and Markus Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 15, 3159–3180, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reports on a recent glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event that occurred on 26 June 2020 in Tibet, China. We find that this event was triggered by a debris landslide from a steep lateral moraine. As the relationship between the long-term evolution of the lake and its likely landslide trigger revealed by a time series of satellite images, this case provides strong evidence that it can be plausibly linked to anthropogenic climate change.
Johnnatan Palacio Cordoba, Martin Mergili, and Edier Aristizábal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 815–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides triggered by rainfall are very common phenomena in complex tropical environments such as the Colombian Andes. In this work, we perform probabilistic analyses with r.slope.stability for landslide susceptibility analysis. We test the model in the La Arenosa catchment, northern Colombian Andes. The results are compared to those yielded with the corresponding deterministic analyses and with other physically based models applied in the same catchment.
Martin Mergili, Michel Jaboyedoff, José Pullarello, and Shiva P. Pudasaini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 505–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-505-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-505-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations of complex landslide processes in mountain areas are important for informing risk management but are at the same time challenging in terms of parameterization and physical and numerical model implementation. Using the tool r.avaflow, we highlight the progress and the challenges with regard to such simulations on the example of the Piz Cengalo–Bondo landslide cascade in Switzerland, which started as an initial rockslide–rockfall and finally evolved into a debris flow.
Martin Mergili, Shiva P. Pudasaini, Adam Emmer, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Alejo Cochachin, and Holger Frey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 93–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In 1941, the glacial lagoon Lake Palcacocha in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) drained suddenly. The resulting outburst flood/debris flow consumed another lake and had a disastrous impact on the town of Huaraz 23 km downstream. We reconstuct this event through a numerical model to learn about the possibility of prediction of similar processes in the future. Remaining challenges consist of the complex process interactions and the lack of experience due to the rare occurrence of such process chains.
M. V. Nguyen, H. J. Chu, C. H. Lin, and M. J. Lalu
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W13, 1249–1253, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-1249-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-1249-2019, 2019
Ekrem Canli, Martin Mergili, Benni Thiebes, and Thomas Glade
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2183–2202, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2183-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2183-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Regional-scale landslide forecasting traditionally strongly relies on empirical approaches and landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. Today, probabilistic methods utilizing ensemble predictions are frequently used for flood forecasting. In our study, we specify how such an approach could also be applied for landslide forecasts and for operational landslide forecasting and early warning systems. To this end, we implemented a physically based landslide model in a probabilistic framework.
Martin Mergili, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Julia Krenn, and Shiva P. Pudasaini
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 553–569, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-553-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-553-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
r.avaflow represents a GIS-based, multi-functional open-source tool for the simulation of debris flows, rock avalanches, snow avalanches, or two-phase (solid and fluid) process chains. It further facilitates parameter studies and validation of the simulation results against observed patterns. r.avaflow shall inform strategies to reduce the risks related to the interaction of mass flow processes with society.
M. Mergili and H.-J. Chu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5677-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5677-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a procedure to compute an integrated spatial landslide probability, combining release and propagation. The zonal release probability is introduced to correct the pixel-based release probability for the size of the release zone relevant for a pixel. For a test area in Taiwan we observe that the model performs moderately well in predicting the observed landslides and that the size of the release zone influences the result to a much higher degree than the pixel-based release probability.
M. Mergili, I. Marchesini, M. Alvioli, M. Metz, B. Schneider-Muntau, M. Rossi, and F. Guzzetti
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2969–2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2969-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2969-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
The article deals with strategies to (i) reduce computation time and to (ii) appropriately account for uncertain input parameters when applying an open source GIS sliding surface model to estimate landslide susceptibility for a 90km² study area in central Italy. For (i), the area is split into a large number of tiles, enabling the exploitation of multi-processor computing environments. For (ii), the model is run with various parameter combinations to compute the slope failure probability.
F. E. Gruber and M. Mergili
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2779–2796, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2779-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2779-2013, 2013
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Earth and other planets deform visco-elastically under various forces. Numerical modeling is critical in understanding the nature of various dynamic deformation processes. This article introduces a newly developed, open-source package, CitcomSVE-3.0, which efficiently solves the visco-elastic deformation of planetary bodies. We present benchmark results against a semi-analytical code. With its accuracy and efficiency, CitcomSVE could advance research in planetary and climatic sciences.
Shengjun Zhang, Xu Chen, Runsheng Zhou, and Yongjun Jia
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2307, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2307, 2024
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NSOAS24, a new global marine gravity model derived from multi-satellite altimetry missions, represents a significant advancement over its predecessor NSOAS22. Through optimized processing procedures, NSOAS24 resolves previous issues and demonstrates improved accuracy. Compared to NSOAS22, it shows a reduction of approximately 0.7 mGal in standard deviation when validated against recent shipborne data. Notably, its accuracy now rivals internationally recognized models DTU21 and V32.1.
Jungang Wang, Junping Chen, and Yize Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1803, 2024
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GNSS is widely used for real-time monitoring and early warning of geohazard. Accurate modeling of tropospheric delays is critical to achieving high-precision GNSS solutions, and using external delay values can improve real-time GNSS convergence time. Current empirical delay models only provide the delay but not the uncertainty. We propose a global empirical delay model with the corresponding uncertainty, and demonstrate its benefits in accelerating GNSS positioning convergence.
Jon B. May, Peter Bird, and Michele M. C. Carafa
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6153–6171, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6153-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6153-2024, 2024
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ShellSet is a combination of well-known geoscience software packages. It features a simple user interface and is optimised through the addition of a grid search input option (automatically searching for optimal models within a defined N-dimensional parameter space) and the ability to run multiple models in parallel. We show that for each number of models tested there is a performance benefit to parallel running, while two examples demonstrate a use case by improving an existing global model.
Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Marisa Montoya, Konstantin Latychev, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, and Jerry Mitrovica
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5263–5290, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5263-2024, 2024
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Ice sheets present a thickness of a few kilometres, leading to a vertical deformation of the crust of up to a kilometre. This process depends on properties of the solid Earth, which can be regionally very different. We propose a model that accounts for this often-ignored heterogeneity and run 100 000 simulation years in minutes. Thus, the evolution of ice sheets is modeled with better accuracy, which is critical for a good mitigation of climate change and, in particular, sea-level rise.
Sia Ghelichkhan, Angus Gibson, D. Rhodri Davies, Stephan C. Kramer, and David A. Ham
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5057–5086, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5057-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5057-2024, 2024
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We introduce the Geoscientific ADjoint Optimisation PlaTform (G-ADOPT), designed for inverse modelling of Earth system processes, with an initial focus on mantle dynamics. G-ADOPT is built upon Firedrake, Dolfin-Adjoint and the Rapid Optimisation Library, which work together to optimise models using an adjoint method, aligning them with seismic and geologic datasets. We demonstrate G-ADOPT's ability to reconstruct mantle evolution and thus be a powerful tool in geosciences.
David Oakley, Christelle Loiselet, Thierry Coowar, Vincent Labbe, and Jean-Paul Callot
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-35, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-35, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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In this work, we develop two automated workflows for identifying fold structures on geological maps using machine learning. In one method, we identify map patterns suggestive of folding based on pre-defined rules and apply a clustering algorithm to group those from the same fold together. In the other, we train a convolutional neural network to identify folds based on a set of training examples. We apply both methods to a set of synthetic maps and to real-world maps from two locations in France.
Rene Gassmöller, Juliane Dannberg, Wolfgang Bangerth, Elbridge Gerry Puckett, and Cedric Thieulot
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4115–4134, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4115-2024, 2024
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Numerical models that use simulated particles are a powerful tool for investigating flow in the interior of the Earth, but the accuracy of these models is not fully understood. Here we present two new benchmarks that allow measurement of model accuracy. We then document that better accuracy matters for applications like convection beneath an oceanic plate. Our benchmarks and methods are freely available to help the community develop better models.
Malte Jörn Ziebarth and Sebastian von Specht
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2783–2828, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2783-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2783-2024, 2024
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Thermal energy from Earth’s active interior constantly dissipates through Earth’s surface. This heat flow is not spatially uniform, and its exact pattern is hard to predict since it depends on crustal and mantle properties, both varying across scales. Our new model REHEATFUNQ addresses this difficulty by treating the fluctuations of heat flow within a region statistically. REHEATFUNQ estimates the regional distribution of heat flow and quantifies known structural signals therein.
Shouzhi Chen, Yongshuo H. Fu, Mingwei Li, Zitong Jia, Yishuo Cui, and Jing Tang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2509–2523, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2509-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2509-2024, 2024
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It is still a challenge to achieve an accurate simulation of vegetation phenology in the dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). We implemented and coupled the spring and autumn phenology models into one of the DGVMs, LPJ-GUESS, and substantially improved the accuracy in capturing the start and end dates of growing seasons. Our study highlights the importance of getting accurate phenology estimations to reduce the uncertainties in plant distribution and terrestrial carbon and water cycling.
Dechao An, Jinyun Guo, Xiaotao Chang, Zhenming Wang, Yongjun Jia, Xin Liu, Valery Bondur, and Heping Sun
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2039–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2039-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2039-2024, 2024
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Seafloor topography, as fundamental geoinformation in marine surveying and mapping, plays a crucial role in numerous scientific studies. In this paper, we focus on constructing a high-precision seafloor topography and bathymetry model for the Philippine Sea (5° N–35° N, 120° E–150° E), based on shipborne bathymetric data and marine gravity anomalies, and evaluate the reliability of the model's accuracy.
Octavi Gómez-Novell, Bruno Pace, Francesco Visini, Joanna Faure Walker, and Oona Scotti
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7339–7355, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7339-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7339-2023, 2023
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Knowing the rate at which earthquakes happen along active faults is crucial to characterize the hazard that they pose. We present an approach (Paleoseismic EArthquake CHronologies, PEACH) to correlate and compute seismic histories using paleoseismic data, a type of data that characterizes past seismic activity from the geological record. Our approach reduces the uncertainties of the seismic histories and overall can improve the knowledge on fault rupture behavior for the seismic hazard.
Sébastien Carretier, Vincent Regard, Youssouf Abdelhafiz, and Bastien Plazolles
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6741–6755, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6741-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6741-2023, 2023
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We present the development of a code to simulate simultaneously the dynamics of landscapes over geological time and the evolution of the concentration of cosmogenic isotopes in grains throughout their transport from the slopes to the river outlets. This new model makes it possible to study the relationship between the detrital signal of cosmogenic isotope concentration measured in sediment and the erosion--deposition processes in watersheds.
Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, and Samantha Engwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6309–6336, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6309-2023, 2023
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We present version 2 of the numerical code IMEX-SfloW2D. With this version it is possible to simulate a wide range of volcanic mass flows (pyroclastic avalanches, lahars, pyroclastic surges), and here we present its application to transient dilute pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). A simulation of the 1883 Krakatau eruption demonstrates the capability of the numerical model to face a complex natural case involving the propagation of PDCs over the sea surface and across topographic obstacles.
Caroline J. van Calcar, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Bas Blank, Bas de Boer, and Wouter van der Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5473–5492, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, 2023
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The waxing and waning of the Antarctic ice sheet caused the Earth’s surface to deform, which is stabilizing the ice sheet and mainly determined by the spatially variable viscosity of the mantle. Including this feedback in model simulations led to significant differences in ice sheet extent and ice thickness over the last glacial cycle. The results underline and quantify the importance of including this local feedback effect in ice sheet models when simulating the Antarctic ice sheet evolution.
Baoyi Zhang, Linze Du, Umair Khan, Yongqiang Tong, Lifang Wang, and Hao Deng
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3651–3674, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3651-2023, 2023
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We propose a Hermite–Birkhoff radial basis function (HRBF) formulation, AdaHRBF, with an adaptive gradient magnitude for continuous 3D stratigraphic potential field (SPF) modeling of multiple stratigraphic interfaces. In the linear system of HRBF interpolants constrained by the scattered on-contact attribute points and off-contact attitude points of a set of strata in 3D space, we add a novel optimization term to iteratively obtain the true gradient magnitude.
Mohammad Moulaeifard, Simon Bernard, and Florian Wellmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3565–3579, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3565-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3565-2023, 2023
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In this work, we propose a flexible framework to generate and interact with geological models using explicit surface representations. The essence of the work lies in the determination of the flexible control mesh, topologically similar to the main geological structure, watertight and controllable with few control points, to manage the geological structures. We exploited the subdivision surface method in our work, which is commonly used in the animation and gaming industry.
Leonardo Mingari, Antonio Costa, Giovanni Macedonio, and Arnau Folch
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3459–3478, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3459-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3459-2023, 2023
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Two novel techniques for ensemble-based data assimilation, suitable for semi-positive-definite variables with highly skewed uncertainty distributions such as tephra deposit mass loading, are applied to reconstruct the tephra fallout deposit resulting from the 2015 Calbuco eruption in Chile. The deposit spatial distribution and the ashfall volume according to the analyses are in good agreement with estimations based on field measurements and isopach maps reported in previous studies.
Hui Gao, Xinming Wu, Jinyu Zhang, Xiaoming Sun, and Zhengfa Bi
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2495–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2495-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2495-2023, 2023
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We propose a workflow to automatically generate synthetic seismic data and corresponding stratigraphic labels (e.g., clinoform facies, relative geologic time, and synchronous horizons) by geological and geophysical forward modeling. Trained with only synthetic datasets, our network works well to accurately and efficiently predict clinoform facies in 2D and 3D field seismic data. Such a workflow can be easily extended for other geological and geophysical scenarios in the future.
Ibsen Chivata Cardenas, Terje Aven, and Roger Flage
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1601–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1601-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1601-2023, 2023
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We discuss challenges in uncertainty quantification for geohazard assessments. The challenges arise from limited data and the one-off nature of geohazard features. The challenges include the credibility of predictions, input uncertainty, and assumptions’ impact. Considerations to increase credibility of the quantification are provided. Crucial tasks in the quantification are the exhaustive scrutiny of the background knowledge coupled with the assessment of deviations of assumptions made.
Zhengfa Bi, Xinming Wu, Zhaoliang Li, Dekuan Chang, and Xueshan Yong
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6841–6861, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6841-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6841-2022, 2022
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We present an implicit modeling method based on deep learning to produce a geologically valid and structurally compatible model from unevenly sampled structural data. Trained with automatically generated synthetic data with realistic features, our network can efficiently model geological structures without the need to solve large systems of mathematical equations, opening new opportunities for further leveraging deep learning to improve modeling capacity in many Earth science applications.
D. Rhodri Davies, Stephan C. Kramer, Sia Ghelichkhan, and Angus Gibson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5127–5166, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5127-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5127-2022, 2022
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Firedrake is a state-of-the-art system that automatically generates highly optimised code for simulating finite-element (FE) problems in geophysical fluid dynamics. It creates a separation of concerns between employing the FE method and implementing it. Here, we demonstrate the applicability and benefits of Firedrake for simulating geodynamical flows, with a focus on the slow creeping motion of Earth's mantle over geological timescales, which is ultimately the engine driving our dynamic Earth.
Federico Brogi, Simone Colucci, Jacopo Matrone, Chiara Paola Montagna, Mattia De' Michieli Vitturi, and Paolo Papale
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3773–3796, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3773-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3773-2022, 2022
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Computer simulations play a fundamental role in understanding volcanic phenomena. The growing complexity of these simulations requires the development of flexible computational tools that can easily switch between sub-models and solution techniques as well as optimizations. MagmaFOAM is a newly developed library that allows for maximum flexibility for solving multiphase volcanic flows and promotes collaborative work for in-house and community model development, testing, and comparison.
Grace A. Nield, Matt A. King, Rebekka Steffen, and Bas Blank
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2489–2503, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2489-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2489-2022, 2022
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We present a finite-element model of post-seismic solid Earth deformation built in the software package Abaqus for the purpose of calculating post-seismic deformation in the far field of major earthquakes. The model is benchmarked against an existing open-source post-seismic model demonstrating good agreement. The advantage over existing models is the potential for simple modification to include 3-D Earth structure, non-linear rheologies and alternative or multiple sources of stress change.
Alessandro Lechmann, David Mair, Akitaka Ariga, Tomoko Ariga, Antonio Ereditato, Ryuichi Nishiyama, Ciro Pistillo, Paola Scampoli, Mykhailo Vladymyrov, and Fritz Schlunegger
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2441–2473, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2441-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2441-2022, 2022
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Muon tomography is a technology that is used often in geoscientific research. The know-how of data analysis is, however, still possessed by physicists who developed this technology. This article aims at providing geoscientists with the necessary tools to perform their own analyses. We hope that a lower threshold to enter the field of muon tomography will allow more geoscientists to engage with muon tomography. SMAUG is set up in a modular way to allow for its own modules to work in between.
Zuzanna M. Swirad and Adam P. Young
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1499–1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1499-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1499-2022, 2022
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Cliff base and top lines that delimit coastal cliff faces are usually manually digitized based on maps, aerial photographs, terrain models, etc. However, manual mapping is time consuming and depends on the mapper's decisions and skills. To increase the objectivity and efficiency of cliff mapping, we developed CliffDelineaTool, an algorithm that identifies cliff base and top positions along cross-shore transects using elevation and slope characteristics.
Holly Kyeore Han, Natalya Gomez, and Jeannette Xiu Wen Wan
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1355–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1355-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1355-2022, 2022
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Interactions between ice sheets, sea level and the solid Earth occur over a range of timescales from years to tens of thousands of years. This requires coupled ice-sheet–sea-level models to exchange information frequently, leading to a quadratic increase in computation time with the number of model timesteps. We present a new sea-level model algorithm that allows coupled models to improve the computational feasibility and precisely capture short-term interactions within longer simulations.
Jérémie Giraud, Vitaliy Ogarko, Roland Martin, Mark Jessell, and Mark Lindsay
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6681–6709, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6681-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6681-2021, 2021
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We review different techniques to model the Earth's subsurface from geophysical data (gravity field anomaly, magnetic field anomaly) using geological models and measurements of the rocks' properties. We show examples of application using idealised examples reproducing realistic features and provide theoretical details of the open-source algorithm we use.
Eric A. de Kemp
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6661–6680, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6661-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6661-2021, 2021
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This is a proof of concept and review paper of spatial agents, with initial research focusing on geomodelling. The results may be of interest to others working on complex regional geological modelling with sparse data. Structural agent-based swarming behaviour is key to advancing this field. The study provides groundwork for research in structural geology 3D modelling with spatial agents. This work was done with NetLogo, a free agent modelling platform used mostly for teaching complex systems.
José M. Bastías Espejo, Andy Wilkins, Gabriel C. Rau, and Philipp Blum
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6257–6272, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6257-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6257-2021, 2021
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The hydraulic and mechanical properties of the subsurface are inherently heterogeneous. RHEA is a simulator that can perform couple hydro-geomechanical processes in heterogeneous porous media with steep gradients. RHEA is able to fully integrate spatial heterogeneity, allowing allocation of distributed hydraulic and geomechanical properties at mesh element level. RHEA is a valuable tool that can simulate problems considering realistic heterogeneity inherent to geologic formations.
Lachlan Grose, Laurent Ailleres, Gautier Laurent, Guillaume Caumon, Mark Jessell, and Robin Armit
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6197–6213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6197-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6197-2021, 2021
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Fault discontinuities in rock packages represent the plane where two blocks of rock have moved. They are challenging to incorporate into geological models because the geometry of the faulted rock units are defined by not only the location of the discontinuity but also the kinematics of the fault. In this paper, we outline a structural geology framework for incorporating faults into geological models by directly incorporating kinematics into the mathematical framework of the model.
Florence Colleoni, Laura De Santis, Enrico Pochini, Edy Forlin, Riccardo Geletti, Giuseppe Brancatelli, Magdala Tesauro, Martina Busetti, and Carla Braitenberg
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5285–5305, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5285-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5285-2021, 2021
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PALEOSTRIP has been developed in the framework of past Antarctic ice sheet reconstructions for periods when bathymetry around Antarctica differed substantially from today. It has been designed for users with no knowledge of numerical modelling and allows users to switch on and off the processes involved in backtracking and backstripping. Applications are broad, and it can be used to restore any continental margin bathymetry or sediment thickness and to perform basin analysis.
Lachlan Grose, Laurent Ailleres, Gautier Laurent, and Mark Jessell
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3915–3937, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3915-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3915-2021, 2021
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LoopStructural is an open-source 3D geological modelling library with a model design allowing for multiple different algorithms to be used for comparison for the same geology. Geological structures are modelled using structural geology concepts and techniques, allowing for complex structures such as overprinted folds and faults to be modelled. In the paper, we demonstrate automatically generating a 3-D model from map2loop-processed geological survey data of the Flinders Ranges, South Australia.
Zhenjiao Jiang, Dirk Mallants, Lei Gao, Tim Munday, Gregoire Mariethoz, and Luk Peeters
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3421–3435, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3421-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3421-2021, 2021
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Fast and reliable tools are required to extract hidden information from big geophysical and remote sensing data. A deep-learning model in 3D image construction from 2D image(s) is here developed for paleovalley mapping from globally available digital elevation data. The outstanding performance for 3D subsurface imaging gives confidence that this generic novel tool will make better use of existing geophysical and remote sensing data for improved management of limited earth resources.
Stephan C. Kramer, D. Rhodri Davies, and Cian R. Wilson
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1899–1919, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1899-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1899-2021, 2021
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Computational models of Earth's mantle require rigorous verification and validation. Analytical solutions of the underlying Stokes equations provide a method to verify that these equations are accurately solved for. However, their derivation in spherical and cylindrical shell domains with physically relevant boundary conditions is involved. This paper provides a number of solutions. They are provided in a Python package (Assess) and their use is demonstrated in a convergence study with Fluidity.
Bastian van den Bout, Theo van Asch, Wei Hu, Chenxiao X. Tang, Olga Mavrouli, Victor G. Jetten, and Cees J. van Westen
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1841–1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1841-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1841-2021, 2021
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Landslides, debris flows and other types of dense gravity-driven flows threaten livelihoods around the globe. Understanding the mechanics of these flows can be crucial for predicting their behaviour and reducing disaster risk. Numerical models assume that the solids and fluids of the flow are unstructured. The newly presented model captures the internal structure during movement. This important step can lead to more accurate predictions of landslide movement.
Andrzej Górszczyk and Stéphane Operto
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1773–1799, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1773-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1773-2021, 2021
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We present the 3D multi-parameter synthetic geomodel of the subduction zone, as well as the workflow designed to implement all of its components. The model contains different geological structures of various scales and complexities. It is intended to serve as a tool for the geophysical community to validate imaging approaches, design acquisition techniques, estimate uncertainties, benchmark computing approaches, etc.
Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi and Federica Pardini
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1345–1377, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1345-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1345-2021, 2021
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Here, we present PLUME-MoM-TSM, a volcanic plume model that allows us to quantify the formation of aggregates during the rise of the plume, model the phase change of water, and include the possibility to simulate the initial spreading of the tephra umbrella cloud intruding from the volcanic column into the atmosphere. The model is first applied to the 2015 Calbuco eruption (Chile) and provides an analytical relationship between the upwind spreading and some characteristic of the volcanic column.
Zhikui Guo, Lars Rüpke, and Chunhui Tao
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6547–6565, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6547-2020, 2020
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We present the 3-D hydro-thermo-transport model HydrothermalFoam v1.0, which we designed to provide the marine geosciences community with an easy-to-use and state-of-the-art tool for simulating mass and energy transport in submarine hydrothermal systems. HydrothermalFoam is based on the popular open-source platform OpenFOAM, comes with a number of tutorials, and is published under the GNU General Public License v3.0.
Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco, F. Ramón Zúñiga, Quetzalcoatl Rodríguez-Pérez, Otilio Rojas, Armando Aguilar-Meléndez, and Josep de la Puente
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6361–6381, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6361-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6361-2020, 2020
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The Mexican subduction zone along the Pacific coast is one of the most active seismic zones in the world, where every year larger-magnitude earthquakes shake huge inland cities such as Mexico City. In this work, we use TREMOL (sThochastic Rupture Earthquake ModeL) to simulate the seismicity observed in this zone. Our numerical results reinforce the hypothesis that in some subduction regions single asperities are responsible for producing the observed seismicity.
Thomas Zwinger, Grace A. Nield, Juha Ruokolainen, and Matt A. King
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1155–1164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1155-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1155-2020, 2020
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We present a newly developed flat-earth model, Elmer/Earth, for viscoelastic treatment of solid earth deformation under ice loads. Unlike many previous approaches with proprietary software, this model is based on the open-source FEM code Elmer, with the advantage for scientists to apply and alter the model without license constraints. The new-generation full-stress ice-sheet model Elmer/Ice shares the same code base, enabling future coupled ice-sheet–glacial-isostatic-adjustment simulations.
Swarup Chauhan, Kathleen Sell, Wolfram Rühaak, Thorsten Wille, and Ingo Sass
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 315–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-315-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-315-2020, 2020
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We present CobWeb 1.0, a graphical user interface for analysing tomographic images of geomaterials. CobWeb offers different machine learning techniques for accurate multiphase image segmentation and visualizing material specific parameters such as pore size distribution, relative porosity and volume fraction. We demonstrate a novel approach of dual filtration and dual segmentation to eliminate edge enhancement artefact in synchrotron-tomographic datasets and provide the computational code.
Loïc Huder, Nicolas Gillet, and Franck Thollard
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3795–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3795-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3795-2019, 2019
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The pygeodyn package is a geomagnetic data assimilation tool written in Python. It gives access to the Earth's core flow dynamics, controlled by geomagnetic observations, by means of a reduced numerical model anchored to geodynamo simulation statistics. It aims to provide the community with a user-friendly and tunable data assimilation algorithm. It can be used for education, geomagnetic model production or tests in conjunction with webgeodyn, a set of visualization tools for geomagnetic models.
Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Giacomo Lari, and Alvaro Aravena
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 581–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-581-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-581-2019, 2019
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Pyroclastic avalanches are a type of granular flow generated at active volcanoes by different mechanisms, including the collapse of steep pyroclastic deposits (e.g., scoria and ash cones) and fountaining during moderately explosive eruptions. We present IMEX_SfloW2D, a depth-averaged flow model describing the granular mixture as a single-phase granular fluid. Benchmark cases and preliminary application to the simulation of the 11 February pyroclastic avalanche at Mt. Etna (Italy) are shown.
Yihao Wu, Zhicai Luo, Bo Zhong, and Chuang Xu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4797–4815, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4797-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4797-2018, 2018
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A multilayer approach is parameterized for model development, and the multiple layers are located at different depths beneath the Earth’s surface. This method may be beneficial for gravity/manget field modeling, which may outperform the traditional single-layer approach.
Andres Payo, Bismarck Jigena Antelo, Martin Hurst, Monica Palaseanu-Lovejoy, Chris Williams, Gareth Jenkins, Kathryn Lee, David Favis-Mortlock, Andrew Barkwith, and Michael A. Ellis
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4317–4337, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4317-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4317-2018, 2018
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We describe a new algorithm that automatically delineates the cliff top and toe of a cliffed coastline from a digital elevation model (DEM). The algorithm builds upon existing methods but is specifically designed to resolve very irregular planform coastlines with many bays and capes, such as parts of the coastline of Great Britain.
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Short summary
r.randomwalk is a flexible and multi-functional open-source GIS tool for simulating the propagation of mass movements. Mass points are routed from given release pixels through a digital elevation model until a defined break criterion is reached. In contrast to existing tools, r.randomwalk includes functionalities to account for parameter uncertainties, and it offers built-in functions for validation and visualization. We show the key functionalities of r.randomwalk for three test areas.
r.randomwalk is a flexible and multi-functional open-source GIS tool for simulating the...
