Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2141-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2141-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
15 Mar 2024
Model description paper |
| 15 Mar 2024
| 15 Mar 2024
Validation of a new global irrigation scheme in the land surface model ORCHIDEE v2.2
Pedro Felipe Arboleda-Obando
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Laboratoire METIS (UMR 7619), IPSL, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, EPHE, 75005 Paris, France
Agnès Ducharne
Laboratoire METIS (UMR 7619), IPSL, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, EPHE, 75005 Paris, France
Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, 08540 New Jersey, USA
Philippe Ciais
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL, CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91191 Essonne, France
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Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6725–6744, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6725-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6725-2024, 2024
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The study assesses the performance of the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) ORCHIDEE in capturing the impact of land-use change on carbon stocks across Europe. Comparisons with observations reveal that the model accurately represents carbon fluxes and stocks. Despite the underestimations in certain land-use conversions, the model describes general trends in soil carbon response to land-use change, aligning with the site observations.
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Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-29, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-29, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
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We explore the use of metal oxide semiconductors (MOSs) as a low-cost alternative for detecting and measuring CH4 emissions from industrial facilities. MOSs were exposed to several controlled releases to test their accuracy in detecting and quantifying emissions. Two reconstruction models were compared, and emission estimates were computed using a Gaussian dispersion model. Findings show that MOSs can provide accurate emission estimates with a 25 % emission rate error and a 9.5 m location error.
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Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-173, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-173, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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Yi Xi, Chunjing Qiu, Yuan Zhang, Dan Zhu, Shushi Peng, Gustaf Hugelius, Jinfeng Chang, Elodie Salmon, and Philippe Ciais
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Yitong Yao, Philippe Ciais, Emilie Joetzjer, Wei Li, Lei Zhu, Yujie Wang, Christian Frankenberg, and Nicolas Viovy
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Elevated CO2 concentration (eCO2) is critical for shaping the future path of forest carbon uptake, while uncertainties remain about concurrent carbon loss. Here, we found that eCO2 might amplify competition-induced carbon loss, while the extent of drought-induced carbon loss hinges on the balance between heightened biomass density and water-saving benefits. This is the first time that such carbon loss responses to ongoing climate change have been quantified separately over the Amazon rainforest.
Hanqin Tian, Naiqing Pan, Rona L. Thompson, Josep G. Canadell, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Pierre Regnier, Eric A. Davidson, Michael Prather, Philippe Ciais, Marilena Muntean, Shufen Pan, Wilfried Winiwarter, Sönke Zaehle, Feng Zhou, Robert B. Jackson, Hermann W. Bange, Sarah Berthet, Zihao Bian, Daniele Bianchi, Alexander F. Bouwman, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Geoffrey Dutton, Minpeng Hu, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Angela Landolfi, Ronny Lauerwald, Ya Li, Chaoqun Lu, Taylor Maavara, Manfredi Manizza, Dylan B. Millet, Jens Mühle, Prabir K. Patra, Glen P. Peters, Xiaoyu Qin, Peter Raymond, Laure Resplandy, Judith A. Rosentreter, Hao Shi, Qing Sun, Daniele Tonina, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Junjie Wang, Kelley C. Wells, Luke M. Western, Chris Wilson, Jia Yang, Yuanzhi Yao, Yongfa You, and Qing Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2543–2604, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas 273 times more potent than carbon dioxide, have increased by 25 % since the preindustrial period, with the highest observed growth rate in 2020 and 2021. This rapid growth rate has primarily been due to a 40 % increase in anthropogenic emissions since 1980. Observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded the worst-case climate scenario, underscoring the importance of reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions.
Léna Gurriaran, Yannig Goude, Katsumasa Tanaka, Biqing Zhu, Zhu Deng, Xuanren Song, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2663–2682, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2663-2024, 2024
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We developed a data-driven model simulating daily regional power demand based on climate and socioeconomic variables. Our model was applied to eight countries or regions (Australia, Brazil, China, EU, India, Russia, South Africa, US), identifying influential factors and their relationship with power demand. Our findings highlight the significance of economic indicators in addition to temperature, showcasing country-specific variations. This research aids energy planning and emission reduction.
Kirsten L. Findell, Zun Yin, Eunkyo Seo, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Nathan P. Arnold, Nathaniel Chaney, Megan D. Fowler, Meng Huang, David M. Lawrence, Po-Lun Ma, and Joseph A. Santanello Jr.
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1869–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1869-2024, 2024
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We outline a request for sub-daily data to accurately capture the process-level connections between land states, surface fluxes, and the boundary layer response. This high-frequency model output will allow for more direct comparison with observational field campaigns on process-relevant timescales, enable demonstration of inter-model spread in land–atmosphere coupling processes, and aid in targeted identification of sources of deficiencies and opportunities for improvement of the models.
Pramod Kumar, Christopher Caldow, Grégoire Broquet, Adil Shah, Olivier Laurent, Camille Yver-Kwok, Sebastien Ars, Sara Defratyka, Susan Warao Gichuki, Luc Lienhardt, Mathis Lozano, Jean-Daniel Paris, Felix Vogel, Caroline Bouchet, Elisa Allegrini, Robert Kelly, Catherine Juery, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 1229–1250, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1229-2024, 2024
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This study presents a series of mobile measurement campaigns to monitor the CH4 emissions from an active landfill. These measurements are processed using a Gaussian plume model and atmospheric inversion techniques to quantify the landfill CH4 emissions. The methane emission estimates range between ~0.4 and ~7 t CH4 per day, and their variations are analyzed. The robustness of the estimates is assessed depending on the distance of the measurements from the potential sources in the landfill.
Mounia Mostefaoui, Philippe Ciais, Matthew J. McGrath, Philippe Peylin, Prabir K. Patra, and Yolandi Ernst
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 245–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-245-2024, 2024
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Our aim is to assess African anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals by using different data products, including inventories and process-based models, and to compare their relative merits with inversion data coming from satellites. We show a good match among the various estimates in terms of overall trends at a regional level and on a decadal basis, but large differences exist even among similar data types, which is a limit to the possibility of verification of country-reported data.
Jan De Pue, Sebastian Wieneke, Ana Bastos, José Miguel Barrios, Liyang Liu, Philippe Ciais, Alirio Arboleda, Rafiq Hamdi, Maral Maleki, Fabienne Maignan, Françoise Gellens-Meulenberghs, Ivan Janssens, and Manuela Balzarolo
Biogeosciences, 20, 4795–4818, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4795-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4795-2023, 2023
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The gross primary production (GPP) of the terrestrial biosphere is a key source of variability in the global carbon cycle. To estimate this flux, models can rely on remote sensing data (RS-driven), meteorological data (meteo-driven) or a combination of both (hybrid). An intercomparison of 11 models demonstrated that RS-driven models lack the sensitivity to short-term anomalies. Conversely, the simulation of soil moisture dynamics and stress response remains a challenge in meteo-driven models.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
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The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Ioannis Cheliotis, Thomas Lauvaux, Jinghui Lian, Theodoros Christoudias, George Georgiou, Alba Badia, Frédéric Chevallier, Pramod Kumar, Yathin Kudupaje, Ruixue Lei, and Philippe Ciais
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2487, 2023
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A consistent estimation of CO2 emissions is complicated due to the scarcity of CO2 observations. In this study, we showcase the potential to improve the CO2 emissions estimations from the NO2 concentrations based on the NO2-to-CO2 ratio, which should be constant for a source co-emitting NO2 and CO2, by comparing satellite observations with atmospheric chemistry and transport model simulations for NO2 and CO2. Furthermore, we demonstrate the significance of the chemistry in NO2 simulations.
Martin Schwartz, Philippe Ciais, Aurélien De Truchis, Jérôme Chave, Catherine Ottlé, Cedric Vega, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Manuel Nicolas, Sami Jouaber, Siyu Liu, Martin Brandt, and Ibrahim Fayad
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4927–4945, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4927-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4927-2023, 2023
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As forests play a key role in climate-related issues, their accurate monitoring is critical to reduce global carbon emissions effectively. Based on open-access remote-sensing sensors, and artificial intelligence methods, we created high-resolution tree height, wood volume, and biomass maps of metropolitan France that outperform previous products. This study, based on freely available data, provides essential information to support climate-efficient forest management policies at a low cost.
Anthony Rey-Pommier, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Jonilda Kushta, Theodoros Christoudias, I. Safak Bayram, and Jean Sciare
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13565–13583, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13565-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13565-2023, 2023
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We use four years (2019–2022) of TROPOMI NO2 data to map NOx emissions in Qatar. We estimate average monthly emissions for the country and industrial facilities and derive an emission factor for the power sector. Monthly emissions have a weekly cycle reflecting the social norms in Qatar and an annual cycle consistent with the electricity production by gas-fired power plants. Their mean value is lower than the NOx emissions in global inventories but similar to the emissions reported for 2007.
Matthew J. McGrath, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Philippe Peylin, Robbie M. Andrew, Bradley Matthews, Frank Dentener, Juraj Balkovič, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Gregoire Broquet, Philippe Ciais, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Giacomo Grassi, Ian Harris, Matthew Jones, Jürgen Knauer, Matthias Kuhnert, Guillaume Monteil, Saqr Munassar, Paul I. Palmer, Glen P. Peters, Chunjing Qiu, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Oksana Tarasova, Matteo Vizzarri, Karina Winkler, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Antoine Berchet, Peter Briggs, Patrick Brockmann, Frédéric Chevallier, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Sara Filipek, Pierre Friedlingstein, Richard Fuchs, Michael Gauss, Christoph Gerbig, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Richard A. Houghton, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Ronny Lauerwald, Bas Lerink, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Géraud Moulas, Marilena Muntean, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Aurélie Paquirissamy, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, Roberto Pilli, Julia Pongratz, Pierre Regnier, Marko Scholze, Yusuf Serengil, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Rona L. Thompson, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, and Sophia Walther
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4295–4370, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, 2023
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Accurate estimation of fluxes of carbon dioxide from the land surface is essential for understanding future impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system. A wide variety of methods currently exist to estimate these sources and sinks. We are continuing work to develop annual comparisons of these diverse methods in order to clarify what they all actually calculate and to resolve apparent disagreement, in addition to highlighting opportunities for increased understanding.
Lilian Vallet, Martin Schwartz, Philippe Ciais, Dave van Wees, Aurelien de Truchis, and Florent Mouillot
Biogeosciences, 20, 3803–3825, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3803-2023, 2023
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This study analyzes the ecological impact of the 2022 summer fire season in France by using high-resolution satellite data. The total biomass loss was 2.553 Mt, equivalent to a 17 % increase of the average natural mortality of all French forests. While Mediterranean forests had a lower biomass loss, there was a drastic increase in burned area and biomass loss over the Atlantic pine forests and temperate forests. This result revisits the distinctiveness of the 2022 fire season.
Jinghui Lian, Thomas Lauvaux, Hervé Utard, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, Michel Ramonet, Olivier Laurent, Ivonne Albarus, Mali Chariot, Simone Kotthaus, Martial Haeffelin, Olivier Sanchez, Olivier Perrussel, Hugo Anne Denier van der Gon, Stijn Nicolaas Camiel Dellaert, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8823–8835, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8823-2023, 2023
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This study quantifies urban CO2 emissions via an atmospheric inversion for the Paris metropolitan area over a 6-year period from 2016 to 2021. Results show a long-term decreasing trend of about 2 % ± 0.6 % per year in the annual CO2 emissions over Paris. We conclude that our current capacity can deliver near-real-time CO2 emission estimates at the city scale in under a month, and the results agree within 10 % with independent estimates from multiple city-scale inventories.
Marc Guevara, Hervé Petetin, Oriol Jorba, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Jeroen Kuenen, Ingrid Super, Claire Granier, Thierno Doumbia, Philippe Ciais, Zhu Liu, Robin D. Lamboll, Sabine Schindlbacher, Bradley Matthews, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8081–8101, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8081-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8081-2023, 2023
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This study provides an intercomparison of European 2020 emission changes derived from official inventories, which are reported by countries under the framework of several international conventions and directives, and non-official near-real-time estimates, the use of which has significantly grown since the COVID-19 outbreak. The results of the work are used to produce recommendations on how best to approach and make use of near-real-time emissions for modelling and monitoring applications.
Adil Shah, Olivier Laurent, Luc Lienhardt, Grégoire Broquet, Rodrigo Rivera Martinez, Elisa Allegrini, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 3391–3419, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3391-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3391-2023, 2023
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As methane (CH4) contributes to global warming, more CH4 measurements are required to better characterise source emissions. Hence, we tested a cheap CH4 sensor for 338 d of landfill sampling. We derived an excellent CH4 response model in a stable environment. However, different types of air with the same CH4 level had diverse sensor responses. We characterised temperature and water vapour response but could not replicate field sampling. Thus, other species may cause sensor interactions.
Xiaojuan Lin, Ronald van der A, Jos de Laat, Henk Eskes, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Zhu Deng, Yuanhao Geng, Xuanren Song, Xiliang Ni, Da Huo, Xinyu Dou, and Zhu Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6599–6611, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6599-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6599-2023, 2023
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Satellite observations provide evidence for CO2 emission signals from isolated power plants. We use these satellite observations to quantify emissions. We found that for power plants with multiple observations, the correlation of estimated and reported emissions is significantly improved compared to a single observation case. This demonstrates that accurate estimation of power plant emissions can be achieved by monitoring from future satellite missions with more frequent observations.
Rodrigo Andres Rivera Martinez, Diego Santaren, Olivier Laurent, Gregoire Broquet, Ford Cropley, Cécile Mallet, Michel Ramonet, Adil Shah, Leonard Rivier, Caroline Bouchet, Catherine Juery, Olivier Duclaux, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2209–2235, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2209-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2209-2023, 2023
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A network of low-cost sensors is a good alternative to improve the detection of fugitive CH4 emissions. We present the results of four tests conducted with two types of Figaro sensors that were assembled on four chambers in a laboratory experiment: a comparison of five models to reconstruct the CH4 signal, a strategy to reduce the training set size, a detection of age effects in the sensors and a test of the capability to transfer a model between chambers for the same type of sensor.
Shengli Tao, Zurui Ao, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Sassan Saatchi, Philippe Ciais, Jérôme Chave, Thuy Le Toan, Pierre-Louis Frison, Xiaomei Hu, Chi Chen, Lei Fan, Mengjia Wang, Jiangling Zhu, Xia Zhao, Xiaojun Li, Xiangzhuo Liu, Yanjun Su, Tianyu Hu, Qinghua Guo, Zhiheng Wang, Zhiyao Tang, Yi Y. Liu, and Jingyun Fang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1577–1596, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1577-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1577-2023, 2023
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We provide the first long-term (since 1992), high-resolution (8.9 km) satellite radar backscatter data set (LHScat) with a C-band (5.3 GHz) signal dynamic for global lands. LHScat was created by fusing signals from ERS (1992–2001; C-band), QSCAT (1999–2009; Ku-band), and ASCAT (since 2007; C-band). LHScat has been validated against independent ERS-2 signals. It could be used in a variety of studies, such as vegetation monitoring and hydrological modelling.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Matthew J. McGrath, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Aki Tsuruta, Dominik Brunner, Matthias Kuhnert, Bradley Matthews, Paul I. Palmer, Oksana Tarasova, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wilfried Winiwarter, Giuseppe Etiope, Tuula Aalto, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Vladislav Bastrikov, Antoine Berchet, Patrick Brockmann, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Frank Dentener, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Massaer Kouyate, Adrian Leip, Antti Leppänen, Emanuele Lugato, Manon Maisonnier, Alistair J. Manning, Tiina Markkanen, Joe McNorton, Marilena Muntean, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Prabir K. Patra, Lucia Perugini, Isabelle Pison, Maarit T. Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, Arjo J. Segers, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Hanqin Tian, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, Guido R. van der Werf, Chris Wilson, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1197–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, 2023
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This study updates the state-of-the-art scientific overview of CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK in Petrescu et al. (2021a). Yearly updates are needed to improve the different respective approaches and to inform on the development of formal verification systems. It integrates the most recent emission inventories, process-based model and regional/global inversions, comparing them with UNFCCC national GHG inventories, in support to policy to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Giacomo Grassi, Clemens Schwingshackl, Thomas Gasser, Richard A. Houghton, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Alessandro Cescatti, Philippe Ciais, Sandro Federici, Pierre Friedlingstein, Werner A. Kurz, Maria J. Sanz Sanchez, Raúl Abad Viñas, Ramdane Alkama, Selma Bultan, Guido Ceccherini, Stefanie Falk, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Anu Korosuo, Joana Melo, Matthew J. McGrath, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Benjamin Poulter, Anna A. Romanovskaya, Simone Rossi, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1093–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1093-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1093-2023, 2023
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Striking differences exist in estimates of land-use CO2 fluxes between the national greenhouse gas inventories and the IPCC assessment reports. These differences hamper an accurate assessment of the collective progress under the Paris Agreement. By implementing an approach that conceptually reconciles land-use CO2 flux from national inventories and the global models used by the IPCC, our study is an important step forward for increasing confidence in land-use CO2 flux estimates.
Brendan Byrne, David F. Baker, Sourish Basu, Michael Bertolacci, Kevin W. Bowman, Dustin Carroll, Abhishek Chatterjee, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Noel Cressie, David Crisp, Sean Crowell, Feng Deng, Zhu Deng, Nicholas M. Deutscher, Manvendra K. Dubey, Sha Feng, Omaira E. García, David W. T. Griffith, Benedikt Herkommer, Lei Hu, Andrew R. Jacobson, Rajesh Janardanan, Sujong Jeong, Matthew S. Johnson, Dylan B. A. Jones, Rigel Kivi, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Shamil Maksyutov, John B. Miller, Scot M. Miller, Isamu Morino, Justus Notholt, Tomohiro Oda, Christopher W. O'Dell, Young-Suk Oh, Hirofumi Ohyama, Prabir K. Patra, Hélène Peiro, Christof Petri, Sajeev Philip, David F. Pollard, Benjamin Poulter, Marine Remaud, Andrew Schuh, Mahesh K. Sha, Kei Shiomi, Kimberly Strong, Colm Sweeney, Yao Té, Hanqin Tian, Voltaire A. Velazco, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Thorsten Warneke, John R. Worden, Debra Wunch, Yuanzhi Yao, Jeongmin Yun, Andrew Zammit-Mangion, and Ning Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 963–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-963-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-963-2023, 2023
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Changes in the carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems result in emissions and removals of CO2. These can be driven by anthropogenic activities (e.g., deforestation), natural processes (e.g., fires) or in response to rising CO2 (e.g., CO2 fertilization). This paper describes a dataset of CO2 emissions and removals derived from atmospheric CO2 observations. This pilot dataset informs current capabilities and future developments towards top-down monitoring and verification systems.
Chuanlong Zhou, Biqing Zhu, Steven J. Davis, Zhu Liu, Antoine Halff, Simon Ben Arous, Hugo de Almeida Rodrigues, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 949–961, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-949-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-949-2023, 2023
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Our work aims to analyze sectoral and country-based daily natural gas supply–storage–consumption based on ENTSOG, Eurostat, and multiple datasets in the EU27 and UK. We estimated the magnitude of the Russian gas gap if Russian gas imports were to stop as well as potential short-term solutions to fill this gap. Our datasets could be important in various fields, such as gas/energy consumption and market modeling, carbon emission and climate change research, and policy decision-making.
Zun Yin, Kirsten L. Findell, Paul Dirmeyer, Elena Shevliakova, Sergey Malyshev, Khaled Ghannam, Nina Raoult, and Zhihong Tan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 861–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-861-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-861-2023, 2023
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Land–atmosphere (L–A) interactions typically focus on daytime processes connecting the land state with the overlying atmospheric boundary layer. However, much prior L–A work used monthly or daily means due to the lack of daytime-only data products. Here we show that monthly smoothing can significantly obscure the L–A coupling signal, and including nighttime information can mute or mask the daytime processes of interest. We propose diagnosing L–A coupling within models or archiving subdaily data.
Yann Quilcaille, Thomas Gasser, Philippe Ciais, and Olivier Boucher
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1129–1161, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1129-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1129-2023, 2023
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The model OSCAR is a simple climate model, meaning its representation of the Earth system is simplified but calibrated on models of higher complexity. Here, we diagnose its latest version using a total of 99 experiments in a probabilistic framework and under observational constraints. OSCAR v3.1 shows good agreement with observations, complex Earth system models and emerging properties. Some points for improvements are identified, such as the ocean carbon cycle.
Yuan Zhang, Devaraju Narayanappa, Philippe Ciais, Wei Li, Daniel Goll, Nicolas Vuichard, Martin G. De Kauwe, Laurent Li, and Fabienne Maignan
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9111–9125, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9111-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9111-2022, 2022
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There are a few studies to examine if current models correctly represented the complex processes of transpiration. Here, we use a coefficient Ω, which indicates if transpiration is mainly controlled by vegetation processes or by turbulence, to evaluate the ORCHIDEE model. We found a good performance of ORCHIDEE, but due to compensation of biases in different processes, we also identified how different factors control Ω and where the model is wrong. Our method is generic to evaluate other models.
Thomas Bossy, Thomas Gasser, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8831–8868, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8831-2022, 2022
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We developed a new simple climate model designed to fill a perceived gap within the existing simple climate models by fulfilling three key requirements: calibration using Bayesian inference, the possibility of coupling with integrated assessment models, and the capacity to explore climate scenarios compatible with limiting climate impacts. Here, we describe the model and its calibration using the latest data from complex CMIP6 models and the IPCC AR6, and we assess its performance.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Yitong Yao, Emilie Joetzjer, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Fabio Cresto Aleina, Jerome Chave, Lawren Sack, Megan Bartlett, Patrick Meir, Rosie Fisher, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7809–7833, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7809-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7809-2022, 2022
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To facilitate more mechanistic modeling of drought effects on forest dynamics, our study implements a hydraulic module to simulate the vertical water flow, change in water storage and percentage loss of stem conductance (PLC). With the relationship between PLC and tree mortality, our model can successfully reproduce the large biomass drop observed under throughfall exclusion. Our hydraulic module provides promising avenues benefiting the prediction for mortality under future drought events.
Arthur Nicolaus Fendrich, Philippe Ciais, Emanuele Lugato, Marco Carozzi, Bertrand Guenet, Pasquale Borrelli, Victoria Naipal, Matthew McGrath, Philippe Martin, and Panos Panagos
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7835–7857, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7835-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7835-2022, 2022
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Currently, spatially explicit models for soil carbon stock can simulate the impacts of several changes. However, they do not incorporate the erosion, lateral transport, and deposition (ETD) of soil material. The present work developed ETD formulation, illustrated model calibration and validation for Europe, and presented the results for a depositional site. We expect that our work advances ETD models' description and facilitates their reproduction and incorporation in land surface models.
Elise Potier, Grégoire Broquet, Yilong Wang, Diego Santaren, Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Julia Marshall, Philippe Ciais, François-Marie Bréon, and Frédéric Chevallier
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 5261–5288, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5261-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5261-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric inversion at local–regional scales over Europe and pseudo-data assimilation are used to evaluate how CO2 and 14CO2 ground-based measurement networks could complement satellite CO2 imagers to monitor fossil fuel (FF) CO2 emissions. This combination significantly improves precision in the FF emission estimates in areas with a dense network but does not strongly support the separation of the FF from the biogenic signals or the spatio-temporal extrapolation of the satellite information.
Jan De Pue, José Miguel Barrios, Liyang Liu, Philippe Ciais, Alirio Arboleda, Rafiq Hamdi, Manuela Balzarolo, Fabienne Maignan, and Françoise Gellens-Meulenberghs
Biogeosciences, 19, 4361–4386, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4361-2022, 2022
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The functioning of ecosystems involves numerous biophysical processes which interact with each other. Land surface models (LSMs) are used to describe these processes and form an essential component of climate models. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of three LSMs and their interactions with soil moisture and vegetation. Though we found room for improvement in the simulation of soil moisture and drought stress, the main cause of errors was related to the simulated growth of vegetation.
Anthony Rey-Pommier, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Grégoire Broquet, Theodoros Christoudias, Jonilda Kushta, Didier Hauglustaine, and Jean Sciare
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11505–11527, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11505-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11505-2022, 2022
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Emission inventories for air pollutants can be uncertain in developing countries. In order to overcome these uncertainties, we model nitrogen oxide emissions in Egypt using satellite retrievals. We detect a weekly cycle reflecting Egyptian social norms, an annual cycle consistent with electricity consumption and an activity drop due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, discrepancies with inventories remain high, illustrating the needs for additional data to improve the potential of our method.
Haicheng Zhang, Ronny Lauerwald, Pierre Regnier, Philippe Ciais, Kristof Van Oost, Victoria Naipal, Bertrand Guenet, and Wenping Yuan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1119–1144, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1119-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1119-2022, 2022
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We present a land surface model which can simulate the complete lateral transfer of sediment and carbon from land to ocean through rivers. Our model captures the water, sediment, and organic carbon discharges in European rivers well. Application of our model in Europe indicates that lateral carbon transfer can strongly change regional land carbon budgets by affecting organic carbon distribution and soil moisture.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Irina Melnikova, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Katsumasa Tanaka, Thomas Gasser, Tomohiro Hajima, Yann Quilcaille, Hideo Shiogama, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Nicolas Vuichard, Tokuta Yokohata, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 779–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, 2022
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The deployment of bioenergy crops for capturing carbon from the atmosphere facilitates global warming mitigation via generating negative CO2 emissions. Here, we explored the consequences of large-scale energy crops deployment on the land carbon cycle. The land-use change for energy crops leads to carbon emissions and loss of future potential increase in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems. This impact should be taken into account by the modeling teams and accounted for in mitigation policies.
Zhu Deng, Philippe Ciais, Zitely A. Tzompa-Sosa, Marielle Saunois, Chunjing Qiu, Chang Tan, Taochun Sun, Piyu Ke, Yanan Cui, Katsumasa Tanaka, Xin Lin, Rona L. Thompson, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Yuanyuan Huang, Ronny Lauerwald, Atul K. Jain, Xiaoming Xu, Ana Bastos, Stephen Sitch, Paul I. Palmer, Thomas Lauvaux, Alexandre d'Aspremont, Clément Giron, Antoine Benoit, Benjamin Poulter, Jinfeng Chang, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Steven J. Davis, Zhu Liu, Giacomo Grassi, Clément Albergel, Francesco N. Tubiello, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, and Frédéric Chevallier
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1639–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1639-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1639-2022, 2022
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In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, we proposed a method for reconciling the results of global atmospheric inversions with data from UNFCCC national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs). Here, based on a new global harmonized database that we compiled from the UNFCCC NGHGIs and a comprehensive framework presented in this study to process the results of inversions, we compared their results of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O).
Elodie Salmon, Fabrice Jégou, Bertrand Guenet, Line Jourdain, Chunjing Qiu, Vladislav Bastrikov, Christophe Guimbaud, Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Philippe Peylin, Sébastien Gogo, Fatima Laggoun-Défarge, Mika Aurela, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Jiquan Chen, Bogdan H. Chojnicki, Housen Chu, Colin W. Edgar, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Krzysztof Fortuniak, David Holl, Janina Klatt, Olaf Kolle, Natalia Kowalska, Lars Kutzbach, Annalea Lohila, Lutz Merbold, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Torsten Sachs, and Klaudia Ziemblińska
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2813–2838, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2813-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2813-2022, 2022
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A methane model that features methane production and transport by plants, the ebullition process and diffusion in soil, oxidation to CO2, and CH4 fluxes to the atmosphere has been embedded in the ORCHIDEE-PEAT land surface model, which includes an explicit representation of northern peatlands. This model, ORCHIDEE-PCH4, was calibrated and evaluated on 14 peatland sites. Results show that the model is sensitive to temperature and substrate availability over the top 75 cm of soil depth.
Céline Gommet, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Haicheng Zhang, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 393–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-393-2022, 2022
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Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) leaching from soils into river networks is an important component of the land carbon (C) budget, but its spatiotemporal variation is not yet fully constrained. We use a land surface model to simulate the present-day land C budget at the European scale, including leaching of DOC from the soil. We found average leaching of 14.3 Tg C yr−1 (0.6 % of terrestrial net primary production) with seasonal variations. We determine runoff and temperature to be the main drivers.
Philippe Ciais, Ana Bastos, Frédéric Chevallier, Ronny Lauerwald, Ben Poulter, Josep G. Canadell, Gustaf Hugelius, Robert B. Jackson, Atul Jain, Matthew Jones, Masayuki Kondo, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Prabir K. Patra, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Shilong Piao, Chunjing Qiu, Celso Von Randow, Pierre Regnier, Marielle Saunois, Robert Scholes, Anatoly Shvidenko, Hanqin Tian, Hui Yang, Xuhui Wang, and Bo Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1289–1316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022, 2022
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The second phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) will provide updated quantification and process understanding of CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions and sinks for ten regions of the globe. In this paper, we give definitions, review different methods, and make recommendations for estimating different components of the total land–atmosphere carbon exchange for each region in a consistent and complete approach.
Lore T. Verryckt, Sara Vicca, Leandro Van Langenhove, Clément Stahl, Dolores Asensio, Ifigenia Urbina, Romà Ogaya, Joan Llusià, Oriol Grau, Guille Peguero, Albert Gargallo-Garriga, Elodie A. Courtois, Olga Margalef, Miguel Portillo-Estrada, Philippe Ciais, Michael Obersteiner, Lucia Fuchslueger, Laynara F. Lugli, Pere-Roc Fernandez-Garberí, Helena Vallicrosa, Melanie Verlinden, Christian Ranits, Pieter Vermeir, Sabrina Coste, Erik Verbruggen, Laëtitia Bréchet, Jordi Sardans, Jérôme Chave, Josep Peñuelas, and Ivan A. Janssens
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5-2022, 2022
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We provide a comprehensive dataset of vertical profiles of photosynthesis and important leaf traits, including leaf N and P concentrations, from two 3-year, large-scale nutrient addition experiments conducted in two tropical rainforests in French Guiana. These data present a unique source of information to further improve model representations of the roles of N and P, and other leaf nutrients, in photosynthesis in tropical forests.
Tom Gleeson, Thorsten Wagener, Petra Döll, Samuel C. Zipper, Charles West, Yoshihide Wada, Richard Taylor, Bridget Scanlon, Rafael Rosolem, Shams Rahman, Nurudeen Oshinlaja, Reed Maxwell, Min-Hui Lo, Hyungjun Kim, Mary Hill, Andreas Hartmann, Graham Fogg, James S. Famiglietti, Agnès Ducharne, Inge de Graaf, Mark Cuthbert, Laura Condon, Etienne Bresciani, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7545–7571, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7545-2021, 2021
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Groundwater is increasingly being included in large-scale (continental to global) land surface and hydrologic simulations. However, it is challenging to evaluate these simulations because groundwater is
hiddenunderground and thus hard to measure. We suggest using multiple complementary strategies to assess the performance of a model (
model evaluation).
Axel P. Belemtougri, Agnès Ducharne, and Harouna Karambiri
Proc. IAHS, 384, 19–23, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-384-19-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-384-19-2021, 2021
Adrian Chappell, Nicholas Webb, Mark Hennen, Charles Zender, Philippe Ciais, Kerstin Schepanski, Brandon Edwards, Nancy Ziegler, Sandra Jones, Yves Balkanski, Daniel Tong, John Leys, Stephan Heidenreich, Robert Hynes, David Fuchs, Zhenzhong Zeng, Marie Ekström, Matthew Baddock, Jeffrey Lee, and Tarek Kandakji
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-337, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-337, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Dust emissions influence global climate while simultaneously reducing the productive potential and resilience of landscapes to climate stressors, together impacting food security and human health. Our results indicate that tuning dust emission models to dust in the atmosphere has hidden dust emission modelling weaknesses and its poor performance. Our new approach will reduce uncertainty and driven by prognostic albedo improve Earth System Models of aerosol effects on future environmental change.
Ana Bastos, René Orth, Markus Reichstein, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Sönke Zaehle, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Pierre Gentine, Emilie Joetzjer, Sebastian Lienert, Tammas Loughran, Patrick C. McGuire, Sungmin O, Julia Pongratz, and Stephen Sitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1015–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, 2021
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Temperate biomes in Europe are not prone to recurrent dry and hot conditions in summer. However, these conditions may become more frequent in the coming decades. Because stress conditions can leave legacies for many years, this may result in reduced ecosystem resilience under recurrent stress. We assess vegetation vulnerability to the hot and dry summers in 2018 and 2019 in Europe and find the important role of inter-annual legacy effects from 2018 in modulating the impacts of the 2019 event.
Alex Resovsky, Michel Ramonet, Leonard Rivier, Jerome Tarniewicz, Philippe Ciais, Martin Steinbacher, Ivan Mammarella, Meelis Mölder, Michal Heliasz, Dagmar Kubistin, Matthias Lindauer, Jennifer Müller-Williams, Sebastien Conil, and Richard Engelen
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 6119–6135, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6119-2021, 2021
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We present a technical description of a statistical methodology for extracting synoptic- and seasonal-length anomalies from greenhouse gas time series. The definition of what represents an anomalous signal is somewhat subjective, which we touch on throughout the paper. We show, however, that the method performs reasonably well in extracting portions of time series influenced by significant North Atlantic Oscillation weather episodes and continent-wide terrestrial biospheric aberrations.
Pramod Kumar, Grégoire Broquet, Camille Yver-Kwok, Olivier Laurent, Susan Gichuki, Christopher Caldow, Ford Cropley, Thomas Lauvaux, Michel Ramonet, Guillaume Berthe, Frédéric Martin, Olivier Duclaux, Catherine Juery, Caroline Bouchet, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 5987–6003, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5987-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5987-2021, 2021
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This study presents a simple atmospheric inversion modeling framework for the localization and quantification of unknown CH4 and CO2 emissions from point sources based on near-surface mobile concentration measurements and a Gaussian plume dispersion model. It is applied for the estimate of a series of brief controlled releases of CH4 and CO2 with a wide range of rates during the TOTAL TADI-2018 experiment. Results indicate a ~10 %–40 % average error on the estimate of the release rates.
Yuanyuan Huang, Phillipe Ciais, Maurizio Santoro, David Makowski, Jerome Chave, Dmitry Schepaschenko, Rose Z. Abramoff, Daniel S. Goll, Hui Yang, Ye Chen, Wei Wei, and Shilong Piao
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4263–4274, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4263-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4263-2021, 2021
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Roots play a key role in our Earth system. Here we combine 10 307 field measurements of forest root biomass worldwide with global observations of forest structure, climatic conditions, topography, land management and soil characteristics to derive a spatially explicit global high-resolution (~ 1 km) root biomass dataset. In total, 142 ± 25 (95 % CI) Pg of live dry-matter biomass is stored belowground, representing a global average root : shoot biomass ratio of 0.25 ± 0.10.
Yi Yin, Frederic Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Philippe Bousquet, Marielle Saunois, Bo Zheng, John Worden, A. Anthony Bloom, Robert J. Parker, Daniel J. Jacob, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Christian Frankenberg
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12631–12647, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12631-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12631-2021, 2021
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The growth of methane, the second-most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, has been accelerating in recent years. Using an ensemble of multi-tracer atmospheric inversions constrained by surface or satellite observations, we show that global methane emissions increased by nearly 1 % per year from 2010–2017, with leading contributions from the tropics and East Asia.
Yidi Xu, Philippe Ciais, Le Yu, Wei Li, Xiuzhi Chen, Haicheng Zhang, Chao Yue, Kasturi Kanniah, Arthur P. Cracknell, and Peng Gong
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4573–4592, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4573-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4573-2021, 2021
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In this study, we implemented the specific morphology, phenology and harvest process of oil palm in the global land surface model ORCHIDEE-MICT. The improved model generally reproduces the same leaf area index, biomass density and life cycle fruit yield as observations. This explicit representation of oil palm in a global land surface model offers a useful tool for understanding the ecological processes of oil palm growth and assessing the environmental impacts of oil palm plantations.
Jinghui Lian, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, Thomas Lauvaux, Bo Zheng, Michel Ramonet, Irène Xueref-Remy, Simone Kotthaus, Martial Haeffelin, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10707–10726, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10707-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10707-2021, 2021
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Currently there is growing interest in monitoring city-scale CO2 emissions based on atmospheric CO2 measurements, atmospheric transport modeling, and inversion technique. We analyze the various sources of uncertainty that impact the atmospheric CO2 modeling and that may compromise the potential of this method for the monitoring of CO2 emission over Paris. Results suggest selection criteria for the assimilation of CO2 measurements into the inversion system that aims at retrieving city emissions.
Elisa Bruni, Bertrand Guenet, Yuanyuan Huang, Hugues Clivot, Iñigo Virto, Roberta Farina, Thomas Kätterer, Philippe Ciais, Manuel Martin, and Claire Chenu
Biogeosciences, 18, 3981–4004, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3981-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3981-2021, 2021
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Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is beneficial for climate change mitigation and food security. One way to enhance SOC stocks is to increase carbon input to the soil. We estimate the amount of carbon input required to reach a 4 % annual increase in SOC stocks in 14 long-term agricultural experiments around Europe. We found that annual carbon input should increase by 43 % under current temperature conditions, by 54 % for a 1 °C warming scenario and by 120 % for a 5 °C warming scenario.
Bowen Cao, Le Yu, Victoria Naipal, Philippe Ciais, Wei Li, Yuanyuan Zhao, Wei Wei, Die Chen, Zhuang Liu, and Peng Gong
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2437–2456, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2437-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2437-2021, 2021
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In this study, the first 30 m resolution terrace map of China was developed through supervised pixel-based classification using multisource, multi-temporal data based on the Google Earth Engine platform. The classification performed well with an overall accuracy of 94 %. The terrace mapping algorithm can be used to map large-scale terraces in other regions globally, and the terrace map will be valuable for studies on soil erosion, carbon cycle, and ecosystem service assessments.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Philippe Peylin, Matthew J. McGrath, Efisio Solazzo, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Peter Bergamaschi, Dominik Brunner, Glen P. Peters, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Aki Tsuruta, Wilfried Winiwarter, Prabir K. Patra, Matthias Kuhnert, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Monica Crippa, Marielle Saunois, Lucia Perugini, Tiina Markkanen, Tuula Aalto, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Chris Wilson, Giulia Conchedda, Dirk Günther, Adrian Leip, Pete Smith, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Antti Leppänen, Alistair J. Manning, Joe McNorton, Patrick Brockmann, and Albertus Johannes Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2307–2362, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, 2021
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This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up and top-down CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK. The data integrate recent emission inventories with process-based model data and regional/global inversions for the European domain, aiming at reconciling them with official country-level UNFCCC national GHG inventories in support to policy and to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Matthew J. McGrath, Robbie M. Andrew, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Gregoire Broquet, Francesco N. Tubiello, Christoph Gerbig, Julia Pongratz, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Giacomo Grassi, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, Matthias Kuhnert, Juraj Balkovič, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Hugo A. C. Denier van der
Gon, Efisio Solazzo, Chunjing Qiu, Roberto Pilli, Igor B. Konovalov, Richard A. Houghton, Dirk Günther, Lucia Perugini, Monica Crippa, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Pete Smith, Saqr Munassar, Rona L. Thompson, Giulia Conchedda, Guillaume Monteil, Marko Scholze, Ute Karstens, Patrick Brockmann, and Albertus Johannes Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2363–2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2363-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2363-2021, 2021
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This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up and top-down CO2 fossil emissions and CO2 land fluxes in the EU27+UK. The data integrate recent emission inventories with ecosystem data, land carbon models and regional/global inversions for the European domain, aiming at reconciling CO2 estimates with official country-level UNFCCC national GHG inventories in support to policy and facilitating real-time verification procedures.
Rui Guo, Jiaoyue Wang, Longfei Bing, Dan Tong, Philippe Ciais, Steven J. Davis, Robbie M. Andrew, Fengming Xi, and Zhu Liu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1791–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1791-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1791-2021, 2021
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Using a life-cycle approach, we estimated the CO2 process emission and uptake of cement materials produced and consumed from 1930 to 2019; ~21 Gt of CO2, about 55 % of the total process emission, had been abated through cement carbonation. China contributed the greatest to the cumulative uptake, with more than 6 Gt (~30 % of the world total), while ~59 %, or more than 12 Gt, of the total uptake was attributed to mortar. Cement CO2 uptake makes up a considerable part of the human carbon budget.
Wei Min Hao, Matthew C. Reeves, L. Scott Baggett, Yves Balkanski, Philippe Ciais, Bryce L. Nordgren, Alexander Petkov, Rachel E. Corley, Florent Mouillot, Shawn P. Urbanski, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 18, 2559–2572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2559-2021, 2021
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We examined the trends in the spatial and temporal distribution of the area burned in northern Eurasia from 2002 to 2016. The annual area burned in this region declined by 53 % during the 15-year period under analysis. Grassland fires in Kazakhstan dominated the fire activity, comprising 47 % of the area burned but accounting for 84 % of the decline. A wetter climate and the increase in grazing livestock in Kazakhstan are the major factors contributing to the decline in the area burned.
Hiroki Mizuochi, Agnès Ducharne, Frédérique Cheruy, Josefine Ghattas, Amen Al-Yaari, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Vladislav Bastrikov, Philippe Peylin, Fabienne Maignan, and Nicolas Vuichard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2199–2221, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2199-2021, 2021
Yuan Zhang, Olivier Boucher, Philippe Ciais, Laurent Li, and Nicolas Bellouin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2029–2039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2029-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2029-2021, 2021
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We investigated different methods to reconstruct spatiotemporal distribution of the fraction of diffuse radiation (Fdf) to qualify the aerosol impacts on GPP using the ORCHIDEE_DF land surface model. We find that climatological-averaging methods which dampen the variability of Fdf can cause significant bias in the modeled diffuse radiation impacts on GPP. Better methods to reconstruct Fdf are recommended.
Yan Sun, Daniel S. Goll, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Betrand Guenet, Julian Helfenstein, Yuanyuan Huang, Ronny Lauerwald, Fabienne Maignan, Victoria Naipal, Yilong Wang, Hui Yang, and Haicheng Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1987–2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1987-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1987-2021, 2021
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We evaluated the performance of the nutrient-enabled version of the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CNP v1.2 against remote sensing, ground-based measurement networks and ecological databases. The simulated carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes among different spatial scales are generally in good agreement with data-driven estimates. However, the recent carbon sink in the Northern Hemisphere is substantially underestimated. Potential causes and model development priorities are discussed.
Bruno Ringeval, Christoph Müller, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Philippe Ciais, Christian Folberth, Wenfeng Liu, Philippe Debaeke, and Sylvain Pellerin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1639–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1639-2021, 2021
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We assess how and why global gridded crop models (GGCMs) differ in their simulation of potential yield. We build a GCCM emulator based on generic formalism and fit its parameters against aboveground biomass and yield at harvest simulated by eight GGCMs. Despite huge differences between GGCMs, we show that the calibration of a few key parameters allows the emulator to reproduce the GGCM simulations. Our simple but mechanistic model could help to improve the global simulation of potential yield.
Zun Yin, Catherine Ottlé, Philippe Ciais, Feng Zhou, Xuhui Wang, Polcher Jan, Patrice Dumas, Shushi Peng, Laurent Li, Xudong Zhou, Yan Bo, Yi Xi, and Shilong Piao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1133–1150, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1133-2021, 2021
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We improved the irrigation module in a land surface model ORCHIDEE and developed a dam operation model with the aim to investigate how irrigation and dams affect the streamflow fluctuations of the Yellow River. Results show that irrigation mainly reduces the annual river flow. The dam operation, however, mainly affects streamflow variation. By considering two generic operation rules, flood control and base flow guarantee, our dam model can sustainably improve the simulation accuracy.
Diego Santaren, Grégoire Broquet, François-Marie Bréon, Frédéric Chevallier, Denis Siméoni, Bo Zheng, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 403–433, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-403-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-403-2021, 2021
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Atmospheric transport inversions with synthetic data are used to assess the potential of new satellite observations of atmospheric CO2 to monitor anthropogenic emissions from regions, cities and large industrial plants. The analysis, applied to a large ensemble of sources in western Europe, shows a strong dependence of the results on different characteristics of the spaceborne instrument, on the source emission budgets and spreads, and on the wind conditions.
Adam Hastie, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Fabrice Papa, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-37-2021, 2021
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We used a model of the Congo Basin to investigate the transfer of carbon (C) from land (vegetation and soils) to inland waters. We estimate that leaching of C to inland waters, emissions of CO2 from the water surface, and the export of C to the coast have all increased over the last century, driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and climate change. We predict that these trends may continue through the 21st century and call for long-term monitoring of these fluxes.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020
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The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Yilong Wang, Grégoire Broquet, François-Marie Bréon, Franck Lespinas, Michael Buchwitz, Maximilian Reuter, Yasjka Meijer, Armin Loescher, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Bo Zheng, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5813–5831, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5813-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5813-2020, 2020
Natasha MacBean, Russell L. Scott, Joel A. Biederman, Catherine Ottlé, Nicolas Vuichard, Agnès Ducharne, Thomas Kolb, Sabina Dore, Marcy Litvak, and David J. P. Moore
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5203–5230, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5203-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5203-2020, 2020
Yuan Zhang, Ana Bastos, Fabienne Maignan, Daniel Goll, Olivier Boucher, Laurent Li, Alessandro Cescatti, Nicolas Vuichard, Xiuzhi Chen, Christof Ammann, M. Altaf Arain, T. Andrew Black, Bogdan Chojnicki, Tomomichi Kato, Ivan Mammarella, Leonardo Montagnani, Olivier Roupsard, Maria J. Sanz, Lukas Siebicke, Marek Urbaniak, Francesco Primo Vaccari, Georg Wohlfahrt, Will Woodgate, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5401–5423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5401-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5401-2020, 2020
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We improved the ORCHIDEE LSM by distinguishing diffuse and direct light in canopy and evaluated the new model with observations from 159 sites. Compared with the old model, the new model has better sunny GPP and reproduced the diffuse light fertilization effect observed at flux sites. Our simulations also indicate different mechanisms causing the observed GPP enhancement under cloudy conditions at different times. The new model has the potential to study large-scale impacts of aerosol changes.
Guillaume Monteil, Grégoire Broquet, Marko Scholze, Matthew Lang, Ute Karstens, Christoph Gerbig, Frank-Thomas Koch, Naomi E. Smith, Rona L. Thompson, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Emily White, Antoon Meesters, Philippe Ciais, Anita L. Ganesan, Alistair Manning, Michael Mischurow, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Jerôme Tarniewicz, Matt Rigby, Christian Rödenbeck, Alex Vermeulen, and Evie M. Walton
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12063–12091, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12063-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12063-2020, 2020
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The paper presents the first results from the EUROCOM project, a regional atmospheric inversion intercomparison exercise involving six European research groups. It aims to produce an estimate of the net carbon flux between the European terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere for the period 2006–2015, based on constraints provided by observed CO2 concentrations and using inverse modelling techniques. The use of six different models enables us to investigate the robustness of the results.
Tom Gleeson, Thorsten Wagener, Petra Döll, Samuel C. Zipper, Charles West, Yoshihide Wada, Richard Taylor, Bridget Scanlon, Rafael Rosolem, Shams Rahman, Nurudeen Oshinlaja, Reed Maxwell, Min-Hui Lo, Hyungjun Kim, Mary Hill, Andreas Hartmann, Graham Fogg, James S. Famiglietti, Agnès Ducharne, Inge de Graaf, Mark Cuthbert, Laura Condon, Etienne Bresciani, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-378, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Thomas Gasser, Léa Crepin, Yann Quilcaille, Richard A. Houghton, Philippe Ciais, and Michael Obersteiner
Biogeosciences, 17, 4075–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4075-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4075-2020, 2020
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We combine several lines of evidence to provide a robust estimate of historical CO2 emissions from land use change. Our novel approach leads to reduced uncertainty and identifies key remaining sources of uncertainty and discrepancy.
We also quantify the carbon removal by natural ecosystems that would have occurred if these ecosystems had not been destroyed (mostly via deforestation). Over the last decade, this foregone carbon sink amounted to about 50 % of the actual emissions.
Salma Tafasca, Agnès Ducharne, and Christian Valentin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3753–3774, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3753-2020, 2020
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In land surface models (LSMs), soil properties are inferred from soil texture. In this study, we use different input global soil texture maps from the literature to investigate the impact of soil texture on the simulated water budget in an LSM. The medium loamy textures give the highest evapotranspiration and lowest total runoff rates. However, the different soil texture maps result in similar water budgets because of their inherent similarities, especially when upscaled at the 0.5° resolution.
Xianfeng Liu, Xiaoming Feng, Philippe Ciais, and Bojie Fu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3663–3676, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3663-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3663-2020, 2020
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Freshwater availability is crucial for sustainable development across the Asian and eastern European regions. Our results indicate widespread decline in terrestrial water storage (TWS) over the region during 2002–2017, primarily due to the intensive over-extraction of groundwater and warmth-induced surface water loss. The findings provide insights into changes in TWS and its components over the Asian and eastern European regions, where there is growing demand for food grains and water supplies.
Bo Zheng, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Grégoire Broquet, Yilong Wang, Jinghui Lian, and Yuanhong Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8501–8510, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8501-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8501-2020, 2020
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The Paris Climate Agreement requires all parties to report CO2 emissions regularly. Given the self-reporting nature of this system, it is critical to evaluate the emission reports with independent observation systems. Here we present the direct observations of city CO2 plumes from space and the quantification of CO2 emissions from these observations over the largest emitter country China. The emissions from 46 hot-spot regions representing 13 % of China's total emissions can be well constrained.
Marielle Saunois, Ann R. Stavert, Ben Poulter, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Peter A. Raymond, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Sander Houweling, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Ciais, Vivek K. Arora, David Bastviken, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Kimberly M. Carlson, Mark Carrol, Simona Castaldi, Naveen Chandra, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick M. Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles L. Curry, Giuseppe Etiope, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Michaela I. Hegglin, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Gustaf Hugelius, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Katherine M. Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ray L. Langenfelds, Goulven G. Laruelle, Licheng Liu, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe McNorton, Paul A. Miller, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Vaishali Naik, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Simon O'Doherty, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, Pierre Regnier, William J. Riley, Judith A. Rosentreter, Arjo Segers, Isobel J. Simpson, Hao Shi, Steven J. Smith, L. Paul Steele, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Francesco N. Tubiello, Aki Tsuruta, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Thomas S. Weber, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray F. Weiss, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Yi Yin, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Zhen Zhang, Yuanhong Zhao, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1561–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, 2020
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Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. We have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. This is the second version of the review dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down and bottom-up estimates.
James A. Franke, Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, Alex C. Ruane, Jonas Jägermeyr, Juraj Balkovic, Philippe Ciais, Marie Dury, Pete D. Falloon, Christian Folberth, Louis François, Tobias Hank, Munir Hoffmann, R. Cesar Izaurralde, Ingrid Jacquemin, Curtis Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Marian Koch, Michelle Li, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Meridel Phillips, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Ashwan Reddy, Xuhui Wang, Karina Williams, Florian Zabel, and Elisabeth J. Moyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2315–2336, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020, 2020
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Concerns about food security under climate change motivate efforts to better understand future changes in crop yields. Crop models, which represent plant biology, are necessary tools for this purpose since they allow representing future climate, farmer choices, and new agricultural geographies. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment, under the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), is designed to evaluate and improve crop models.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Glen P. Peters, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Philippe Ciais, Francesco N. Tubiello, Giacomo Grassi, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Adrian Leip, Gema Carmona-Garcia, Wilfried Winiwarter, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Dirk Günther, Efisio Solazzo, Anja Kiesow, Ana Bastos, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Giulia Conchedda, Roberto Pilli, Robbie M. Andrew, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, and Albertus J. Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 961–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-961-2020, 2020
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This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up GHG anthropogenic emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) in the EU28. The data integrate recent AFOLU emission inventories with ecosystem data and land carbon models, aiming at reconciling GHG budgets with official country-level UNFCCC inventories. We provide comprehensive emission assessments in support to policy, facilitating real-time verification procedures.
Yidi Xu, Le Yu, Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Yuqi Cheng, and Peng Gong
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 847–867, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-847-2020, 2020
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The first annual oil palm area dataset (AOPD) for Malaysia and Indonesia from 2001 to 2016 was produced by integrating multiple satellite datasets and a change-detection algorithm (BFAST). This dataset reveals that oil palm plantations have expanded from 5.69 to 19.05 M ha in the two countries during the past 16 years. The AOPD is useful in understanding the deforestation process in Southeast Asia and may serve as land-use change inputs in dynamic global vegetation models.
Didier G. Leibovici, Shaun Quegan, Edward Comyn-Platt, Garry Hayman, Maria Val Martin, Mathieu Guimberteau, Arsène Druel, Dan Zhu, and Philippe Ciais
Biogeosciences, 17, 1821–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1821-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1821-2020, 2020
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Analysing the impact of environmental changes due to climate change, e.g. geographical spread of climate-sensitive infections (CSIs) and agriculture crop modelling, may require land surface modelling (LSM) to predict future land surface conditions. There are multiple LSMs to choose from. The paper proposes a multivariate spatio-temporal data science method to understand the inherent uncertainties in four LSMs and the variations between them in Nordic areas for the net primary production.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Elke Stehfest, Detlef van Vuuren, Alexander Popp, Almut Arneth, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Jonathan Doelman, Florian Humpenöder, Anna B. Harper, Taejin Park, David Makowski, Petr Havlik, Michael Obersteiner, Jingmeng Wang, Andreas Krause, and Wenfeng Liu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 789–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-789-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-789-2020, 2020
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We generated spatially explicit bioenergy crop yields based on field measurements with climate, soil condition and remote-sensing variables as explanatory variables and the machine-learning method. We further compared our yield maps with the maps from three integrated assessment models (IAMs; IMAGE, MAgPIE and GLOBIOM) and found that the median yields in our maps are > 50 % higher than those in the IAM maps.
Hong Xuan Do, Fang Zhao, Seth Westra, Michael Leonard, Lukas Gudmundsson, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tobias Stacke, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1543–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020, 2020
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We presented a global comparison between observed and simulated trends in a flood index over the 1971–2005 period using the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata archive and six global hydrological models available through The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Streamflow simulations over 2006–2099 period robustly project high flood hazard in several regions. These high-flood-risk areas, however, are under-sampled by the current global streamflow databases.
Victoria Naipal, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, and Yilong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1201–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1201-2020, 2020
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In this study we present the Carbon Erosion DYNAMics model (CE-DYNAM) that links sediment dynamics resulting from water erosion with the soil carbon cycle along a cascade of hillslopes, floodplains, and rivers. The model can simulate the removal of soil and carbon from eroding areas and their destination at regional scale. We calibrated and validated the model for the Rhine catchment, and we show that soil erosion is a potential large net carbon sink over the period 1850–2005.
Simon P. K. Bowring, Ronny Lauerwald, Bertrand Guenet, Dan Zhu, Matthieu Guimberteau, Pierre Regnier, Ardalan Tootchi, Agnès Ducharne, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 507–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-507-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-507-2020, 2020
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In this second part of the study, we performed simulations of the carbon and water budget of the Lena catchment with the land surface model ORCHIDEE MICT-LEAK, enabled to simulate dissolved organic carbon (DOC) production in soils and its transport and fate in high-latitude inland waters. We compare simulations using this model to existing data sources to show that it is capable of reproducing dissolved carbon fluxes of potentially great importance for the future of the global permafrost.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
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The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Jinghui Lian, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, T. Scott Zaccheo, Jeremy Dobler, Michel Ramonet, Johannes Staufer, Diego Santaren, Irène Xueref-Remy, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13809–13825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13809-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13809-2019, 2019
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CO2 emissions within urban areas impact nearby and downwind concentrations. A different system, based on bi-wavelength laser measurements, has been deployed over Paris. It samples CO2 concentrations along horizontal lines, between a transceiver and a reflector. In this paper, we analyze the measurements provided by this system, together with the more classical in situ sampling and high-resolution modeling. We focus on the temporal and spatial variability of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Frédéric Chevallier, Christian Rödenbeck, Ashley P. Ballantyne, Fabienne Maignan, Yi Yin, Marcos Fernández-Martínez, Pierre Friedlingstein, Josep Peñuelas, Shilong L. Piao, Stephen Sitch, William K. Smith, Xuhui Wang, Zaichun Zhu, Vanessa Haverd, Etsushi Kato, Atul K. Jain, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Poulter, and Dan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12361–12375, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12361-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12361-2019, 2019
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Here we show that land-surface models improved their ability to simulate the increase in the amplitude of seasonal CO2-cycle exchange (SCANBP) by ecosystems compared to estimates by two atmospheric inversions. We find a dominant role of vegetation growth over boreal Eurasia to the observed increase in SCANBP, strongly driven by CO2 fertilization, and an overall negative effect of temperature on SCANBP. Biases can be explained by the sensitivity of simulated microbial respiration to temperature.
Bo Zheng, Frederic Chevallier, Yi Yin, Philippe Ciais, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Merritt N. Deeter, Robert J. Parker, Yilong Wang, Helen M. Worden, and Yuanhong Zhao
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1411–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1411-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1411-2019, 2019
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We use a multi-species atmospheric Bayesian inversion approach to attribute satellite-observed atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) variations to its sources and sinks in order to achieve a full closure of the global CO budget during 2000–2017. We identify a declining trend in the global CO budget since 2000, driven by reduced anthropogenic emissions in the US, Europe, and China, as well as by reduced biomass burning emissions globally, especially in equatorial Africa.
Bruno Ringeval, Marko Kvakić, Laurent Augusto, Philippe Ciais, Daniel Goll, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Christoph Müller, Thomas Nesme, Nicolas Vuichard, Xuhui Wang, and Sylvain Pellerin
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-298, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-298, 2019
Preprint withdrawn
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Crossed fertilization additions lead to the definition of nutrient interaction categories. However, the implications of such categories in terms of nutrient interaction modeling are not clear. We developed a theoretical analysis of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilization experiments, then applied it to current estimates of nutrient limitation in cropland. We found that a true co-limitation could affect up to 42 % of the global maize area when using a given formalism of nutrient interaction.
Simon P. K. Bowring, Ronny Lauerwald, Bertrand Guenet, Dan Zhu, Matthieu Guimberteau, Ardalan Tootchi, Agnès Ducharne, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3503–3521, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3503-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3503-2019, 2019
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Few Earth system models represent permafrost soil biogeochemistry, contributing to uncertainty in estimating its response and that of the planet to warming. Because the permafrost contains over double the carbon in the present atmosphere, its fate as it is
unlockedby warming is globally significant. One way it can be mobilised is into rivers, the sea, or the atmosphere: a vector previously ignored in climate modelling. We present a model scheme for resolving this vector at a global scale.
Chunjing Qiu, Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Shushi Peng, Gerhard Krinner, Ardalan Tootchi, Agnès Ducharne, and Adam Hastie
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2961–2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2961-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2961-2019, 2019
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We present a model that can simulate the dynamics of peatland area extent and the vertical buildup of peat. The model is validated across a range of northern peatland sites and over the Northern Hemisphere (> 30° N). It is able to reproduce the spatial extent of northern peatlands and peat carbon accumulation over the Holocene.
Yilong Wang, Philippe Ciais, Grégoire Broquet, François-Marie Bréon, Tomohiro Oda, Franck Lespinas, Yasjka Meijer, Armin Loescher, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Bo Zheng, Haoran Xu, Shu Tao, Kevin R. Gurney, Geoffrey Roest, Diego Santaren, and Yongxian Su
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 687–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-687-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-687-2019, 2019
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We address the question of the global characterization of fossil fuel CO2 emission hotspots that may cause coherent XCO2 plumes in space-borne CO2 images, based on the ODIAC global high-resolution 1 km fossil fuel emission data product. For space imagery with 0.5 ppm precision for a single XCO2 measurement, a total of 11 314 hotspots are identified, covering 72 % of the global emissions. These hotspots define the targets for the purpose of monitoring fossil fuel CO2 emissions from space.
Emmanuel Arzoumanian, Felix R. Vogel, Ana Bastos, Bakhram Gaynullin, Olivier Laurent, Michel Ramonet, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 2665–2677, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2665-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2665-2019, 2019
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We tested commercial lower-cost CO2 sensors in laboratory and field studies to see if they can measure atmospheric CO2 mole fractions with less than 1 ppm bias (with monthly calibration), to allow continuous urban CO2 monitoring.
We find that the sensors' CO2 readings are influenced by temperature, atmospheric pressure and water vapour content, but this can be corrected for by adding sensors (T, p, RH) and carefully calibrating each sensor against a high-precision instrument.
Felix R. Vogel, Matthias Frey, Johannes Staufer, Frank Hase, Grégoire Broquet, Irène Xueref-Remy, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Mahesh Kumar Sha, Pascale Chelin, Pascal Jeseck, Christof Janssen, Yao Té, Jochen Groß, Thomas Blumenstock, Qiansi Tu, and Johannes Orphal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3271–3285, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3271-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3271-2019, 2019
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Providing timely information on greenhouse gas emissions to stakeholders at sub-national scale is an emerging challenge and understanding urban CO2 levels is one key aspect. This study uses atmospheric observations of total column CO2 and compares them to numerical simulations to investigate CO2 levels in the Paris metropolitan area due to natural fluxes and anthropogenic emissions. Our measurements reveal the influence of locally added CO2, which our model is also able to predict.
Ardalan Tootchi, Anne Jost, and Agnès Ducharne
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 189–220, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-189-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-189-2019, 2019
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The role of wetlands at regional and global scales depends on their distribution and extent, which is highly uncertain in the literature. We developed comprehensive wetland maps using satellite imagery products and ground water modeling. These high-resolution maps encompass regularly flooded to non-flooded groundwater wetlands, covering more than 21 % of the land surface area, which is among the highest estimates. Wetlands are particularly concentrated over the tropics and northern cold zones.
Pierre Laurent, Florent Mouillot, Maria Vanesa Moreno, Chao Yue, and Philippe Ciais
Biogeosciences, 16, 275–288, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-275-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-275-2019, 2019
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Fire propagation and fire size are usually considered to be proportional to fire intensity. We used a global database of fire patch size and fire radiative power, used as a proxy of fire intensity, to test this relationship at a global scale. We showed that in some regions fire size tends to saturate when a regional fire intensity threshold is reached. We concluded that increasing landscape fragmentation limits fire propagation and this effect should be accounted for in global fire modules.
Anja Rammig, Jens Heinke, Florian Hofhansl, Hans Verbeeck, Timothy R. Baker, Bradley Christoffersen, Philippe Ciais, Hannes De Deurwaerder, Katrin Fleischer, David Galbraith, Matthieu Guimberteau, Andreas Huth, Michelle Johnson, Bart Krujit, Fanny Langerwisch, Patrick Meir, Phillip Papastefanou, Gilvan Sampaio, Kirsten Thonicke, Celso von Randow, Christian Zang, and Edna Rödig
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5203–5215, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5203-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5203-2018, 2018
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We propose a generic approach for a pixel-to-point comparison applicable for evaluation of models and remote-sensing products. We provide statistical measures accounting for the uncertainty in ecosystem variables. We demonstrate our approach by comparing simulated values of aboveground biomass, woody productivity and residence time of woody biomass from four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) with measured inventory data from permanent plots in the Amazon rainforest.
Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, Cécile B. Ménard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, Frédérique Chéruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, Agnès Ducharne, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Charles Fierz, Josephine Ghattas, Yeugeniy Gusev, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Rachel Law, Dave Lawrence, Weiping Li, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Martin Ménégoz, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, Masashi Niwano, John Pomeroy, Mark S. Raleigh, Gerd Schaedler, Vladimir Semenov, Tanya G. Smirnova, Tobias Stacke, Ulrich Strasser, Sean Svenson, Dmitry Turkov, Tao Wang, Nander Wever, Hua Yuan, Wenyan Zhou, and Dan Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5027–5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, 2018
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This paper provides an overview of a coordinated international experiment to determine the strengths and weaknesses in how climate models treat snow. The models will be assessed at point locations using high-quality reference measurements and globally using satellite-derived datasets. How well climate models simulate snow-related processes is important because changing snow cover is an important part of the global climate system and provides an important freshwater resource for human use.
Trung Nguyen-Quang, Jan Polcher, Agnès Ducharne, Thomas Arsouze, Xudong Zhou, Ana Schneider, and Lluís Fita
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4965–4985, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4965-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4965-2018, 2018
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This study presents a revised river routing scheme for the Organising Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model. The revision is carried out to benefit from the high-resolution topography provided by the Hydrological data and maps based on SHuttle Elevation Derivatives at multiple Scales (HydroSHEDS). We demonstrate that the finer description of the catchments allows for an improvement of the simulated river discharge of ORCHIDEE in an area with complex topography.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2141–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2018 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Haicheng Zhang, Daniel S. Goll, Stefano Manzoni, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, and Yuanyuan Huang
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4779–4796, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4779-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4779-2018, 2018
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Carbon use efficiency (CUE) of decomposers depends strongly on the organic matter quality (C : N ratio) and soil nutrient availability rather than a fixed value. A soil biogeochemical model with flexible CUE can better capture the differences in respiration rate of litter with contrasting C : N ratios and under different levels of mineral N availability than the model with fixed CUE, and well represent the effect of varying litter quality (N content) on SOM formation across temporal scales.
Zun Yin, Catherine Ottlé, Philippe Ciais, Matthieu Guimberteau, Xuhui Wang, Dan Zhu, Fabienne Maignan, Shushi Peng, Shilong Piao, Jan Polcher, Feng Zhou, Hyungjun Kim, and other China-Trend-Stream project members
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5463–5484, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5463-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5463-2018, 2018
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Simulations in China were performed in ORCHIDEE driven by different forcing datasets: GSWP3, PGF, CRU-NCEP, and WFDEI. Simulated soil moisture was compared to several datasets to evaluate the ability of ORCHIDEE in reproducing soil moisture dynamics. Results showed that ORCHIDEE soil moisture coincided well with other datasets in wet areas and in non-irrigated areas. It suggested that the ORCHIDEE-MICT was suitable for further hydrological studies in China.
Igor B. Konovalov, Daria A. Lvova, Matthias Beekmann, Hiren Jethva, Eugene F. Mikhailov, Jean-Daniel Paris, Boris D. Belan, Valerii S. Kozlov, Philippe Ciais, and Meinrat O. Andreae
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14889–14924, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14889-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14889-2018, 2018
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A good knowledge of black carbon (BC) emissions from open biomass burning (BB) is an important prerequisite for reliable climate predictions, especially in the Arctic. This paper introduces a method to constrain a regional budget of BB BC emissions using satellite measurements of the absorption and extinction optical depths and evaluates its potential application in a large Siberian region.
Yilong Wang, Philippe Ciais, Daniel Goll, Yuanyuan Huang, Yiqi Luo, Ying-Ping Wang, A. Anthony Bloom, Grégoire Broquet, Jens Hartmann, Shushi Peng, Josep Penuelas, Shilong Piao, Jordi Sardans, Benjamin D. Stocker, Rong Wang, Sönke Zaehle, and Sophie Zechmeister-Boltenstern
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3903–3928, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3903-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3903-2018, 2018
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We present a new modeling framework called Global Observation-based Land-ecosystems Utilization Model of Carbon, Nitrogen and Phosphorus (GOLUM-CNP) that combines a data-constrained C-cycle analysis with data-driven estimates of N and P inputs and losses and with observed stoichiometric ratios. GOLUM-CNP provides a traceable tool, where a consistency between different datasets of global C, N, and P cycles has been achieved.
Chloé Largeron, Gerhard Krinner, Philippe Ciais, and Claire Brutel-Vuilmet
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3279–3297, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3279-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3279-2018, 2018
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Peatlands are widely present in boreal regions and contain large carbon stocks due to their hydrologic properties and high water content. We have enhanced the global land surface model ORCHIDEE by introducing boreal peatlands. These are considered as a new type of vegetation in the model, with specific hydrological properties for peat soil. In this paper, we focus on the representation of the hydrology of northern peatlands and on the evaluation of the hydrological impact of this implementation.
Victoria Naipal, Philippe Ciais, Yilong Wang, Ronny Lauerwald, Bertrand Guenet, and Kristof Van Oost
Biogeosciences, 15, 4459–4480, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4459-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4459-2018, 2018
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We seek to better understand the links between soil erosion by rainfall and the global carbon (C) cycle by coupling a soil erosion model to the C cycle of a land surface model. With this modeling approach we evaluate the effects of soil removal on soil C stocks in the presence of climate change and land use change. We find that accelerated soil erosion leads to a potential SOC removal flux of 74 ±18 Pg of C globally over the period AD 1850–2005, with significant impacts on the land C balance.
Emilie Joetzjer, Fabienne Maignan, Jérôme Chave, Daniel Goll, Ben Poulter, Jonathan Barichivich, Isabelle Maréchaux, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Matthieu Guimberteau, Kim Naudts, Damien Bonal, and Philippe Ciais
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-308, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-308, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This study explores the relative contributions of tree demographic, canopy structure and hydraulic processes on the Amazonian carbon and water cycles using large-scale process-based model. Our results imply that explicit coupling of the water and carbon cycles improves the representation of biogeochemical cycles and their spatial variability. Representing the variation in the ecological functioning of Amazonia should be the next step to improve the performance and predictive ability of models.
Xin Lin, Philippe Ciais, Philippe Bousquet, Michel Ramonet, Yi Yin, Yves Balkanski, Anne Cozic, Marc Delmotte, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Nuggehalli K. Indira, Robin Locatelli, Shushi Peng, Shilong Piao, Marielle Saunois, Panangady S. Swathi, Rong Wang, Camille Yver-Kwok, Yogesh K. Tiwari, and Lingxi Zhou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9475–9497, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9475-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9475-2018, 2018
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We simulate CH4 and CO2 using a zoomed global transport model with a horizontal resolution of ~50 km over South and East Asia, as well as a standard model version for comparison. Model performance is evaluated for both gases and versions at multiple timescales against a new collection of surface stations over this key GHG-emitting region. The evaluation at different timescales and comparisons between gases and model versions have implications for possible model improvements and inversions.
Wei Li, Chao Yue, Philippe Ciais, Jinfeng Chang, Daniel Goll, Dan Zhu, Shushi Peng, and Albert Jornet-Puig
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2249–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2249-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2249-2018, 2018
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We implemented four major lignocellulosic bioenergy crops in ORCHIDEE. We added new PFTs, did new parameterizations of photosynthesis, carbon allocation, and phenology based on a compilation of field measurements, and added a specific harvest module. The resulting ORCHIDEE-MICT-BIOENERGY model is evaluated at 296 locations where field measurements of harvested biomass are available, and the new model can generally reproduce the global bioenergy crop yield observations.
Donghai Wu, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Alan K. Knapp, Kevin Wilcox, Michael Bahn, Melinda D. Smith, Sara Vicca, Simone Fatichi, Jakob Zscheischler, Yue He, Xiangyi Li, Akihiko Ito, Almut Arneth, Anna Harper, Anna Ukkola, Athanasios Paschalis, Benjamin Poulter, Changhui Peng, Daniel Ricciuto, David Reinthaler, Guangsheng Chen, Hanqin Tian, Hélène Genet, Jiafu Mao, Johannes Ingrisch, Julia E. S. M. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Lena R. Boysen, Markus Kautz, Michael Schmitt, Patrick Meir, Qiuan Zhu, Roland Hasibeder, Sebastian Sippel, Shree R. S. Dangal, Stephen Sitch, Xiaoying Shi, Yingping Wang, Yiqi Luo, Yongwen Liu, and Shilong Piao
Biogeosciences, 15, 3421–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, 2018
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Our results indicate that most ecosystem models do not capture the observed asymmetric responses under normal precipitation conditions, suggesting an overestimate of the drought effects and/or underestimate of the watering impacts on primary productivity, which may be the result of inadequate representation of key eco-hydrological processes. Collaboration between modelers and site investigators needs to be strengthened to improve the specific processes in ecosystem models in following studies.
Ye Huang, Bertrand Guenet, Philippe Ciais, Ivan A. Janssens, Jennifer L. Soong, Yilong Wang, Daniel Goll, Evgenia Blagodatskaya, and Yuanyuan Huang
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2111–2138, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2111-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2111-2018, 2018
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ORCHIMIC is a modeling effort trying to improve the representation of SOC dynamics in Earth system models (ESM). It has a structure that can be easily incorporated into CENTURY-based ESMs. In ORCHIMIC, key microbial dynamics (i.e., enzyme production, enzymatic decomposition and microbial dormancy) are included. The ORCHIMIC model can also reproduce the observed temporal dynamics of respiration and priming effects; thus it is an improved tool for climate projections and SOC response predictions.
Yilong Wang, Grégoire Broquet, Philippe Ciais, Frédéric Chevallier, Felix Vogel, Lin Wu, Yi Yin, Rong Wang, and Shu Tao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4229–4250, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4229-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4229-2018, 2018
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This paper assesses the potential of atmospheric 14CO2 observations and a global inversion system to solve for fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions in Europe. The estimate of monthly emission budgets is largely improved in high emitting regions. The results are sensitive to the observation network and the prior uncertainty. Using a high-resolution transport model and a systematic evaluation of the uncertainty in current emission inventories should improve the potential to retrieve FFCO2 emissions.
Abdelhadi El Yazidi, Michel Ramonet, Philippe Ciais, Gregoire Broquet, Isabelle Pison, Amara Abbaris, Dominik Brunner, Sebastien Conil, Marc Delmotte, Francois Gheusi, Frederic Guerin, Lynn Hazan, Nesrine Kachroudi, Giorgos Kouvarakis, Nikolaos Mihalopoulos, Leonard Rivier, and Dominique Serça
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 1599–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1599-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1599-2018, 2018
Marta Camino-Serrano, Bertrand Guenet, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Philippe Ciais, Vladislav Bastrikov, Bruno De Vos, Bert Gielen, Gerd Gleixner, Albert Jornet-Puig, Klaus Kaiser, Dolly Kothawala, Ronny Lauerwald, Josep Peñuelas, Marion Schrumpf, Sara Vicca, Nicolas Vuichard, David Walmsley, and Ivan A. Janssens
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 937–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-937-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-937-2018, 2018
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Global models generally oversimplify the representation of soil organic carbon (SOC), and thus its response to global warming remains uncertain. We present the new soil module ORCHIDEE-SOM, within the global model ORCHIDEE, that refines the representation of SOC dynamics and includes the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) processes. The model is able to reproduce SOC stocks and DOC concentrations in four different ecosystems, opening an opportunity for improved predictions of SOC in global models.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, Andrew C. Manning, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Oliver D. Andrews, Vivek K. Arora, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Meike Becker, Richard A. Betts, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Catherine E. Cosca, Jessica Cross, Kim Currie, Thomas Gasser, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Christopher W. Hunt, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Markus Kautz, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Ivan Lima, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, X. Antonio Padin, Anna Peregon, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Janet Reimer, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Steven van Heuven, Nicolas Viovy, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Watson, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Dan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 405–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2017 describes data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. It is the 12th annual update and the 6th published in this journal.
Irène Xueref-Remy, Elsa Dieudonné, Cyrille Vuillemin, Morgan Lopez, Christine Lac, Martina Schmidt, Marc Delmotte, Frédéric Chevallier, François Ravetta, Olivier Perrussel, Philippe Ciais, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, Michel Ramonet, T. Gerard Spain, and Christophe Ampe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3335–3362, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3335-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3335-2018, 2018
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Urbanized and industrialized areas are the largest source of fossil CO2. This work analyses the atmospheric CO2 variability observed from the first in situ network deployed in the Paris megacity area. Gradients of several ppm are found between the rural, peri-urban and urban sites at the diurnal to the seasonal scales. Wind direction and speed as well as boundary layer dynamics, correlated to highly variable urban emissions, are shown to be key regulator factors of the observed CO2 records.
Chao Yue, Philippe Ciais, and Wei Li
Biogeosciences, 15, 1185–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1185-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1185-2018, 2018
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Gross land use change such as shifting cultivation causes carbon emissions because carbon release in cleared forests is larger than absorption in regrowing ones. However, to appropriately account for this process, vegetation models have to represent sub-grid secondary forest dynamics. We found that gross land use emissions can be overestimated if sub-grid secondary forests are neglected in the model. Conversely, rotation lengths of shifting cultivation have a critical role.
Ben Parkes, Dimitri Defrance, Benjamin Sultan, Philippe Ciais, and Xuhui Wang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 119–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018, 2018
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We present an analysis of three crops in West Africa and their response to short-term climate change in a world where temperatures are 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels. We show that the number of crop failures for all crops is due to increase in the future climate. We further show the difference in yield change across several West African countries and show that the yields are not expected to increase fast enough to prevent food shortages.
Grégoire Broquet, François-Marie Bréon, Emmanuel Renault, Michael Buchwitz, Maximilian Reuter, Heinrich Bovensmann, Frédéric Chevallier, Lin Wu, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 681–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-681-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-681-2018, 2018
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This study assesses the potential of space-borne imagery of CO2 atmospheric concentrations for monitoring the emissions from the Paris area. Such imagery could be provided by European and American missions in the next decade. It highlights the difficulty to improve current knowledge on CO2 emissions for urban areas with CO2 observations from satellites, and calls for more technological innovations in the remote sensing of CO2 and in the models that exploit it.
Ardalan Tootchi, Anne Jost, and Agnès Ducharne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-48, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-48, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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There is a massive disagreement between wetland extent estimates in literature (3 to 21 % of the land surface area). Some inundated wetlands could be detected using satellite imagery while non-inundated ones and those below vegetation are not easily detectedable. We mapped all wetlands, using both satellite data and geomorphological information, showing large wetland over boreal and tropical zones plus thousands of small oases in arid areas.
Chunjing Qiu, Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Gerhard Krinner, Shushi Peng, Mika Aurela, Christian Bernhofer, Christian Brümmer, Syndonia Bret-Harte, Housen Chu, Jiquan Chen, Ankur R. Desai, Jiří Dušek, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Thomas Friborg, Mateusz Grygoruk, Sébastien Gogo, Thomas Grünwald, Birger U. Hansen, David Holl, Elyn Humphreys, Miriam Hurkuck, Gerard Kiely, Janina Klatt, Lars Kutzbach, Chloé Largeron, Fatima Laggoun-Défarge, Magnus Lund, Peter M. Lafleur, Xuefei Li, Ivan Mammarella, Lutz Merbold, Mats B. Nilsson, Janusz Olejnik, Mikaell Ottosson-Löfvenius, Walter Oechel, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Norbert Pirk, Olli Peltola, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Daniel Rasse, Janne Rinne, Gaius Shaver, Hans Peter Schmid, Matteo Sottocornola, Rainer Steinbrecher, Torsten Sachs, Marek Urbaniak, Donatella Zona, and Klaudia Ziemblinska
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 497–519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-497-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-497-2018, 2018
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Northern peatlands store large amount of soil carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We implemented peatland hydrological and carbon accumulation processes into the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The model was evaluated against EC measurements from 30 northern peatland sites. The model generally well reproduced the spatial gradient and temporal variations in GPP and NEE at these sites. Water table depth was not well predicted but had only small influence on simulated NEE.
Chao Yue, Philippe Ciais, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Wei Li, Matthew J. McGrath, Jinfeng Chang, and Shushi Peng
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 409–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-409-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-409-2018, 2018
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Human alteration of land cover has caused CO2 that is stored in forest biomass and soil to be released into the atmosphere and thus contribute to global warming. Global vegetation models that are used to quantify such carbon emissions from land use change traditionally rarely include shifting cultivation and secondary forest age dynamics. In this study, we expanded one vegetation model to include these features. We found that carbon emissions from land use change are estimated to be smaller.
Wei Li, Natasha MacBean, Philippe Ciais, Pierre Defourny, Céline Lamarche, Sophie Bontemps, Richard A. Houghton, and Shushi Peng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 219–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-219-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-219-2018, 2018
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We evaluated the land cover changes based on plant functional types (PFTs) derived from the newly released annual ESA land cover maps. We addressed the geographical distributions and temporal trends of the translated PFT maps and compared with other datasets commonly used by the land surface model community. Different choices of these datasets for the applications in land surface models are proposed depending on the research purposes.
Matthieu Guimberteau, Dan Zhu, Fabienne Maignan, Ye Huang, Chao Yue, Sarah Dantec-Nédélec, Catherine Ottlé, Albert Jornet-Puig, Ana Bastos, Pierre Laurent, Daniel Goll, Simon Bowring, Jinfeng Chang, Bertrand Guenet, Marwa Tifafi, Shushi Peng, Gerhard Krinner, Agnès Ducharne, Fuxing Wang, Tao Wang, Xuhui Wang, Yilong Wang, Zun Yin, Ronny Lauerwald, Emilie Joetzjer, Chunjing Qiu, Hyungjun Kim, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 121–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-121-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-121-2018, 2018
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Improved projections of future Arctic and boreal ecosystem transformation require improved land surface models that integrate processes specific to these cold biomes. To this end, this study lays out relevant new parameterizations in the ORCHIDEE-MICT land surface model. These describe the interactions between soil carbon, soil temperature and hydrology, and their resulting feedbacks on water and CO2 fluxes, in addition to a recently developed fire module.
Fei Lun, Junguo Liu, Philippe Ciais, Thomas Nesme, Jinfeng Chang, Rong Wang, Daniel Goll, Jordi Sardans, Josep Peñuelas, and Michael Obersteiner
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1-2018, 2018
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We quantified in detail the P budgets in agricultural systems and PUE on global, regional, and national scales from 2002 to 2010. Globally, half of the total P inputs into agricultural systems accumulated in agricultural soils, with the rest lost to bodies of water. There are great differences in P budgets and PUE in agricultural systems on global, regional, and national scales. International trade played a significant role in P redistribution and P in fertilizer and food among countries.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Chao Yue, Thomas Gasser, Shushi Peng, and Ana Bastos
Biogeosciences, 15, 91–103, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-91-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-91-2018, 2018
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We compared the biomass recovery curves from a recent field-based study with those used in bookkeeping models and demonstrated the importance of considering gross forest changes rather than net forest changes. We also derived a critical gross-to-net forest area change ratio, beyond which the sign of carbon flux will be reversed. This critical ratio was further applied to the high-resolution satellite data in the Amazon to distinguish the sensitive regions.
Arsène Druel, Philippe Peylin, Gerhard Krinner, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Anna Peregon, Vladislav Bastrikov, Natalya Kosykh, and Nina Mironycheva-Tokareva
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4693–4722, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4693-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4693-2017, 2017
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To improve the simulation of vegetation–climate feedbacks at high latitudes, three new circumpolar vegetation types were added in the ORCHIDEE land surface model: bryophytes (mosses) and lichens, Arctic shrubs, and Arctic grasses. This article is an introduction to the modification of vegetation distribution and physical behaviour, implying for example lower productivity, roughness, and higher winter albedo or freshwater discharge in the Arctic Ocean.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Jacob Schewe, Lila Warszawski, Fang Zhao, Louise Chini, Sebastien Denvil, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, Kate Halladay, George Hurtt, Matthias Mengel, Daisuke Murakami, Sebastian Ostberg, Alexander Popp, Riccardo Riva, Miodrag Stevanovic, Tatsuo Suzuki, Jan Volkholz, Eleanor Burke, Philippe Ciais, Kristie Ebi, Tyler D. Eddy, Joshua Elliott, Eric Galbraith, Simon N. Gosling, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Jochen Hinkel, Christian Hof, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Valentina Krysanova, Rafael Marcé, Hannes Müller Schmied, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Don Pierson, Derek P. Tittensor, Robert Vautard, Michelle van Vliet, Matthias F. Biber, Richard A. Betts, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Delphine Deryng, Steve Frolking, Chris D. Jones, Heike K. Lotze, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Ritvik Sahajpal, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, and Yoshiki Yamagata
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, 2017
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This paper describes the simulation scenario design for the next phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is designed to facilitate a contribution to the scientific basis for the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming. ISIMIP brings together over 80 climate-impact models, covering impacts on hydrology, biomes, forests, heat-related mortality, permafrost, tropical cyclones, fisheries, agiculture, energy, and coastal infrastructure.
Chao Yue, Philippe Ciais, Ana Bastos, Frederic Chevallier, Yi Yin, Christian Rödenbeck, and Taejin Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13903–13919, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13903-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13903-2017, 2017
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The year 2015 appeared as a paradox regarding how global carbon cycle has responded to climate variation: it is the greenest year since 2000 according to satellite observation, but the atmospheric CO2 growth rate is also the highest since 1959. We found that this is due to a only moderate land carbon sink, because high growing-season sink in northern lands has been partly offset by autumn and winter release and the late-year El Niño has led to an abrupt transition to land source in the tropics.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Shushi Peng, Chao Yue, Yilong Wang, Martin Thurner, Sassan S. Saatchi, Almut Arneth, Valerio Avitabile, Nuno Carvalhais, Anna B. Harper, Etsushi Kato, Charles Koven, Yi Y. Liu, Julia E.M.S. Nabel, Yude Pan, Julia Pongratz, Benjamin Poulter, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Maurizio Santoro, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin D. Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, Rasoul Yousefpour, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 14, 5053–5067, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, 2017
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We used several observation-based biomass datasets to constrain the historical land-use change carbon emissions simulated by models. Compared to the range of the original modeled emissions (from 94 to 273 Pg C), the observationally constrained global cumulative emission estimate is 155 ± 50 Pg C (1σ Gaussian error) from 1901 to 2012. Our approach can also be applied to evaluate the LULCC impact of land-based climate mitigation policies.
Ronny Lauerwald, Pierre Regnier, Marta Camino-Serrano, Bertrand Guenet, Matthieu Guimberteau, Agnès Ducharne, Jan Polcher, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3821–3859, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3821-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3821-2017, 2017
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ORCHILEAK is a new branch of the terrestrial ecosystem model ORCHIDEE that represents dissolved organic carbon (DOC) production from canopy and soils, DOC and CO2 leaching from soils to streams, DOC decomposition, and CO2 evasion to the atmosphere during its lateral transport in rivers, as well as exchange with the soil carbon and litter stocks on floodplains and in swamps. We parameterized and validated ORCHILEAK for the Amazon basin.
Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Vuichard, Fabienne Maignan, Albert Jornet-Puig, Jordi Sardans, Aurelie Violette, Shushi Peng, Yan Sun, Marko Kvakic, Matthieu Guimberteau, Bertrand Guenet, Soenke Zaehle, Josep Penuelas, Ivan Janssens, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3745–3770, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3745-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3745-2017, 2017
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We describe a representation of the terrestrial phosphorus cycle for the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The model is able to reproduce the observed shift from nitrogen to phosphorus limited net primary productivity along a soil formation chronosequence in Hawaii, as well as the contrasting responses of net primary productivity to nutrient addition. However, the simulated nutrient use efficiencies are lower, as observed primarily due to biases in the nutrient content and turnover of woody biomass.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
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Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
Jakob Zscheischler, Miguel D. Mahecha, Valerio Avitabile, Leonardo Calle, Nuno Carvalhais, Philippe Ciais, Fabian Gans, Nicolas Gruber, Jens Hartmann, Martin Herold, Kazuhito Ichii, Martin Jung, Peter Landschützer, Goulven G. Laruelle, Ronny Lauerwald, Dario Papale, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Poulter, Deepak Ray, Pierre Regnier, Christian Rödenbeck, Rosa M. Roman-Cuesta, Christopher Schwalm, Gianluca Tramontana, Alexandra Tyukavina, Riccardo Valentini, Guido van der Werf, Tristram O. West, Julie E. Wolf, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 14, 3685–3703, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3685-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3685-2017, 2017
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Here we synthesize a wide range of global spatiotemporal observational data on carbon exchanges between the Earth surface and the atmosphere. A key challenge was to consistently combining observational products of terrestrial and aquatic surfaces. Our primary goal is to identify today’s key uncertainties and observational shortcomings that would need to be addressed in future measurement campaigns or expansions of in situ observatories.
Ana Bastos, Anna Peregon, Érico A. Gani, Sergey Khudyaev, Chao Yue, Wei Li, Célia Gouveia, and Philippe Ciais
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-267, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-267, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The ice-core record indicates a stabilization of atmospheric CO2 in the 1940s, which is not captured by the state-of-the-art reconstructions of CO2 sources and sinks.
The 1940s where marked by major socio-economic disruptions due to war. At the same time, very strong warming was registered in the high-latitudes. Here we evaluate the contributions of these two factors to a possible increase in the terrestrial sink not captured in other datasets, using the Former Soviet Union as a case study.
Eleanor J. Burke, Altug Ekici, Ye Huang, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris Huntingford, Philippe Ciais, Pierre Friedlingstein, Shushi Peng, and Gerhard Krinner
Biogeosciences, 14, 3051–3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, 2017
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There are large reserves of carbon within the permafrost which might be released to the atmosphere under global warming. Our models suggest this release may cause an additional global temperature increase of 0.005 to 0.2°C by the year 2100 and 0.01 to 0.34°C by the year 2300. Under climate mitigation scenarios this is between 1.5 and 9 % (by 2100) and between 6 and 16 % (by 2300) of the global mean temperature change. There is a large uncertainty associated with these results.
Sabina Assan, Alexia Baudic, Ali Guemri, Philippe Ciais, Valerie Gros, and Felix R. Vogel
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 2077–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2077-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2077-2017, 2017
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This study is dedicated to improving measurement methods when using a Cavity Ring Down Spectroscopy instrument to measure methane at sites with elevated ethane concentrations such as Oil and Gas sites. The research was undertaken after measurements of natural gas samples suggested biased δ13CH4 results. Two instruments were extensively tested to characterize the cross sensitivities to ethane and δ13CH4 and propose corrections. Results indicate that it is imperative to account for the biases.
Daniel S. Goll, Alexander J. Winkler, Thomas Raddatz, Ning Dong, Ian Colin Prentice, Philippe Ciais, and Victor Brovkin
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2009–2030, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, 2017
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The response of soil organic carbon decomposition to warming and the interactions between nitrogen and carbon cycling affect the feedbacks between the land carbon cycle and the climate. In the model JSBACH carbon–nitrogen interactions have only a small effect on the feedbacks, whereas modifications of soil organic carbon decomposition have a large effect. The carbon cycle in the improved model is more resilient to climatic changes than in previous version of the model.
Thomas Gasser, Glen P. Peters, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, William J. Collins, Drew T. Shindell, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 235–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-235-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-235-2017, 2017
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Emission metrics such as GWP or GTP are used to put non-CO2 species on a
CO2-equivalentscale. In the fifth IPCC report the metrics are inconsistent, as the climate–carbon feedback is included only for CO2 but not for non-CO2 species. Here, we simulate a new impulse response function for the feedback, and we use it to correct the metrics. For instance, 1 g of CH4 is equivalent to 31 g of CO2 (instead of 28 g) following the corrected GWP100 metric. It is 34 g if other factors are also updated.
Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, James Chryssanthacopoulos, Almut Arneth, Juraj Balkovic, Philippe Ciais, Delphine Deryng, Christian Folberth, Michael Glotter, Steven Hoek, Toshichika Iizumi, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Curtis Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Peter Lawrence, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Deepak K. Ray, Ashwan Reddy, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alex C. Ruane, Gen Sakurai, Erwin Schmid, Rastislav Skalsky, Carol X. Song, Xuhui Wang, Allard de Wit, and Hong Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1403–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1403-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1403-2017, 2017
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Crop models are increasingly used in climate change impact research and integrated assessments. For the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), 14 global gridded crop models (GGCMs) have supplied crop yield simulations (1980–2010) for maize, wheat, rice and soybean. We evaluate the performance of these models against observational data at global, national and grid cell level. We propose an open-access benchmark system against which future model versions can be tested.
Yi Yin, Frederic Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Gregoire Broquet, Anne Cozic, Sophie Szopa, and Yilong Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-166, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-166, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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CO inverse modelling studies have so far reported significant discrepancies between model concentrations optimised with the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite retrievals and surface in-situ measurements. Here, we assess how well a global CTM fits a large variety of independent CO observations before and after assimilating MOPITTv6 retrievals to optimise CO sources/sink and discuss potential sources of errors and their implications for global CO modelling studies.
Matthieu Guimberteau, Philippe Ciais, Agnès Ducharne, Juan Pablo Boisier, Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar, Hester Biemans, Hannes De Deurwaerder, David Galbraith, Bart Kruijt, Fanny Langerwisch, German Poveda, Anja Rammig, Daniel Andres Rodriguez, Graciela Tejada, Kirsten Thonicke, Celso Von Randow, Rita C. S. Von Randow, Ke Zhang, and Hans Verbeeck
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1455–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017, 2017
Thomas Gasser, Philippe Ciais, Olivier Boucher, Yann Quilcaille, Maxime Tortora, Laurent Bopp, and Didier Hauglustaine
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 271–319, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-271-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-271-2017, 2017
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Simple models of the Earth system are useful, especially because of their high computing efficiency. This work describes the OSCAR model: a new simple Earth system model calibrated on state-of-the-art complex models. It will add to the pool of the few simple models currently used by the community, and it will therefore improve the robustness of future studies. Its source code is available upon request.
Christian Folberth, Joshua Elliott, Christoph Müller, Juraj Balkovic, James Chryssanthacopoulos, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Curtis D. Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Wenfeng Liu, Ashwan Reddy, Erwin Schmid, Rastislav Skalský, Hong Yang, Almut Arneth, Philippe Ciais, Delphine Deryng, Peter J. Lawrence, Stefan Olin, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Alex C. Ruane, and Xuhui Wang
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-527, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Global crop models differ in numerous aspects such as algorithms, parameterization, input data, and management assumptions. This study compares five global crop model frameworks, all based on the same field-scale model, to identify differences induced by the latter three. Results indicate that foremost nutrient supply, soil handling, and crop management induce substantial differences in crop yield estimates whereas crop cultivars primarily result in scaling of yield levels.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
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An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Johannes Staufer, Grégoire Broquet, François-Marie Bréon, Vincent Puygrenier, Frédéric Chevallier, Irène Xueref-Rémy, Elsa Dieudonné, Morgan Lopez, Martina Schmidt, Michel Ramonet, Olivier Perrussel, Christine Lac, Lin Wu, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14703–14726, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14703-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14703-2016, 2016
Shushi Peng, Shilong Piao, Philippe Bousquet, Philippe Ciais, Bengang Li, Xin Lin, Shu Tao, Zhiping Wang, Yuan Zhang, and Feng Zhou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14545–14562, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14545-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14545-2016, 2016
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Methane is an important greenhouse gas, which accounts for about 20 % of the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases since 1750. Anthropogenic methane emissions from China may have been growing rapidly in the past decades because of increased coal mining and fast growing livestock. A good long-term methane emissions dataset is still lacking. Here, we produced a detailed bottom-up inventory of anthropogenic methane emissions from the eight major source sectors in China during 1980–2010.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Richard A. Houghton, Ralph F. Keeling, Simone Alin, Oliver D. Andrews, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Kim Currie, Christine Delire, Scott C. Doney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Mario Hoppema, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Kevin O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Joe Salisbury, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, 2016
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The Global Carbon Budget 2016 is the 11th annual update of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. This data synthesis brings together measurements, statistical information, and analyses of model results in order to provide an assessment of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties for years 1959 to 2015, with a projection for year 2016.
Igor B. Konovalov, Evgeny V. Berezin, Philippe Ciais, Grégoire Broquet, Ruslan V. Zhuravlev, and Greet Janssens-Maenhout
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13509–13540, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13509-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13509-2016, 2016
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The knowledge of CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel (FF) burning is of paramount importance both for climate prediction and mitigation policy purposes. The paper introduces a method to indirectly constrain a regional budget of FF CO2 emissions by using satellite measurements of "proxy" chemical species and evaluates its potential in application to a western European region.
Marta Camino-Serrano, Elisabeth Graf Pannatier, Sara Vicca, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Mathieu Jonard, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Bert Gielen, Josep Peñuelas, Jordi Sardans, Peter Waldner, Sophia Etzold, Guia Cecchini, Nicholas Clarke, Zoran Galić, Laure Gandois, Karin Hansen, Jim Johnson, Uwe Klinck, Zora Lachmanová, Antti-Jussi Lindroos, Henning Meesenburg, Tiina M. Nieminen, Tanja G. M. Sanders, Kasia Sawicka, Walter Seidling, Anne Thimonier, Elena Vanguelova, Arne Verstraeten, Lars Vesterdal, and Ivan A. Janssens
Biogeosciences, 13, 5567–5585, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5567-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5567-2016, 2016
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We investigated the long-term trends of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in soil solution and the drivers of changes in over 100 forest monitoring plots across Europe. An overall increasing trend was detected in the organic layers, but no overall trend was found in the mineral horizons. There are strong interactions between controls acting at local and regional scales. Our findings are relevant for researchers focusing on the link between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and for C-cycle models.
Philippe Peylin, Cédric Bacour, Natasha MacBean, Sébastien Leonard, Peter Rayner, Sylvain Kuppel, Ernest Koffi, Abdou Kane, Fabienne Maignan, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, and Pascal Prunet
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3321–3346, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3321-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3321-2016, 2016
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The study describes a carbon cycle data assimilation system that uses satellite observations of vegetation activity, net ecosystem exchange of carbon and water at many sites and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, in order to optimize the parameters of the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The optimized model is able to fit all three data streams leading to a land carbon uptake similar to independent estimates, which opens new perspectives for better prediction of the land carbon balance.
Jean-Philippe Vidal, Benoît Hingray, Claire Magand, Eric Sauquet, and Agnès Ducharne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3651–3672, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016, 2016
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Possible transient futures of winter and summer low flows for two snow-influenced catchments in the southern French Alps show a strong decrease signal. It is however largely masked by the year-to-year variability, which should be the main target for defining adaptation strategies. Responses of different hydrological models strongly diverge in the future, suggesting to carefully check the robustness of evapotranspiration and snowpack components under a changing climate.
Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Jonathan Barichivich, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Thomas Gasser, Shushi Peng, Julia Pongratz, Nicolas Viovy, and Cathy M. Trudinger
Biogeosciences, 13, 4877–4897, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, 2016
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The ice-core record shows a stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 in the 1940s, despite continued emissions from fossil fuel burning and land-use change (LUC). We use up-to-date reconstructions of the CO2 sources and sinks over the 20th century to evaluate whether these capture the CO2 plateau and to test the previously proposed hypothesis. Both strong terrestrial sink, possibly due to LUC not fully accounted for in the records, and enhanced oceanic uptake are necessary to explain this stall.
Bart van den Hurk, Hyungjun Kim, Gerhard Krinner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Chris Derksen, Taikan Oki, Hervé Douville, Jeanne Colin, Agnès Ducharne, Frederique Cheruy, Nicholas Viovy, Michael J. Puma, Yoshihide Wada, Weiping Li, Binghao Jia, Andrea Alessandri, Dave M. Lawrence, Graham P. Weedon, Richard Ellis, Stefan Hagemann, Jiafu Mao, Mark G. Flanner, Matteo Zampieri, Stefano Materia, Rachel M. Law, and Justin Sheffield
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2809–2832, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2809-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2809-2016, 2016
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This manuscript describes the setup of the CMIP6 project Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP).
Wenli Wang, Annette Rinke, John C. Moore, Duoying Ji, Xuefeng Cui, Shushi Peng, David M. Lawrence, A. David McGuire, Eleanor J. Burke, Xiaodong Chen, Bertrand Decharme, Charles Koven, Andrew MacDougall, Kazuyuki Saito, Wenxin Zhang, Ramdane Alkama, Theodore J. Bohn, Philippe Ciais, Christine Delire, Isabelle Gouttevin, Tomohiro Hajima, Gerhard Krinner, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Paul A. Miller, Benjamin Smith, Tetsuo Sueyoshi, and Artem B. Sherstiukov
The Cryosphere, 10, 1721–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, 2016
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The winter snow insulation is a key process for air–soil temperature coupling and is relevant for permafrost simulations. Differences in simulated air–soil temperature relationships and their modulation by climate conditions are found to be related to the snow model physics. Generally, models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes.
Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Mario Herrero, Petr Havlik, Matteo Campioli, Xianzhou Zhang, Yongfei Bai, Nicolas Viovy, Joanna Joiner, Xuhui Wang, Shushi Peng, Chao Yue, Shilong Piao, Tao Wang, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Jean-Francois Soussana, Anna Peregon, Natalya Kosykh, and Nina Mironycheva-Tokareva
Biogeosciences, 13, 3757–3776, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3757-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3757-2016, 2016
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We derived the global maps of grassland management intensity of 1901–2012, including the minimum area of managed grassland with fraction of mown/grazed part. These maps, to our knowledge for the first time, provide global, time-dependent information for drawing up global estimates of management impact on biomass production and yields and for global vegetation models to enable simulations of carbon stocks and GHG budgets beyond simple tuning of grassland productivities to account for management.
Lin Wu, Grégoire Broquet, Philippe Ciais, Valentin Bellassen, Felix Vogel, Frédéric Chevallier, Irène Xueref-Remy, and Yilong Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7743–7771, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7743-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7743-2016, 2016
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This paper advances atmospheric inversion of city CO2 emissions as follows: (1) illustrate how inversion methodology can be tailored to deal with very large urban networks of sensors measuring CO2 concentrations; (2) demonstrate that atmospheric inversion could be a relevant tool of Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of city CO2 emissions; (3) clarify the theoretical potential of inversion for reducing uncertainties in the estimates of citywide total and sectoral CO2 emissions.
Khatab Abdalla, Pauline Chivenge, Philippe Ciais, and Vincent Chaplot
Biogeosciences, 13, 3619–3633, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3619-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3619-2016, 2016
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Discrepancies exist on the impact of tillage on soil CO2 emissions and on the main soil and environmental controls. Results from a meta-analysis using 174 paired observations comparing CO2 emissions over entire seasons or years from tilled (untilled) soils across different climates, crop types and soil conditions show that on average: (1) tilled soils emit 21 % more CO2 than untilled soils; (2) the difference increase to 29 % in sandy soils from arid climates with low soil organic carbon content.
Stijn Hantson, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo Artaxo, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew Forrest, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Hickler, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, 2016
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Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of past and future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes. A large variety of models exist, and it is unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. In this paper we summarize the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP.
Zun Yin, Stefan C. Dekker, Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Biogeosciences, 13, 3343–3357, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3343-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3343-2016, 2016
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Bimodality is found in aboveground biomass and mean annual shortwave radiation in West Africa, which is a strong evidence of alternative stable states. The condition with low biomass and low radiation is demonstrated under which ecosystem state can shift between savanna and forest states. Moreover, climatic indicators have different prediction confidences to different land cover types. A new method is proposed to predict potential land cover change with a combination of climatic indicators.
Alex Boon, Grégoire Broquet, Deborah J. Clifford, Frédéric Chevallier, David M. Butterfield, Isabelle Pison, Michel Ramonet, Jean-Daniel Paris, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6735–6756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6735-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6735-2016, 2016
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We measured carbon dioxide and methane concentrations at four near-ground sites located in London, 2012. We investigated the potential for using these measurements, alongside numerical modelling, to help us to understand urban greenhouse gas emissions. Low-level sites were highly sensitive to local emissions, which questions our ability to use measurements from near-ground sites in cities in some modelling applications. A gradient approach was found to be beneficial to reduce model–data errors.
X. Wu, N. Vuichard, P. Ciais, N. Viovy, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, X. Wang, V. Magliulo, M. Wattenbach, L. Vitale, P. Di Tommasi, E. J. Moors, W. Jans, J. Elbers, E. Ceschia, T. Tallec, C. Bernhofer, T. Grünwald, C. Moureaux, T. Manise, A. Ligne, P. Cellier, B. Loubet, E. Larmanou, and D. Ripoche
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 857–873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-857-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-857-2016, 2016
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The response of crops to changing climate and atmospheric CO2 could have large effects on food production, terrestrial carbon, water, energy fluxes and the climate feedbacks. We developed a new process-oriented terrestrial biogeochemical model named ORCHIDEE-CROP (v0), which integrates a generic crop phenology and harvest module into the land surface model ORCHIDEE. Our model has good ability to capture the spatial gradients of crop phenology, carbon and energy-related variables across Europe.
Bertrand Guenet, Fernando Esteban Moyano, Philippe Peylin, Philippe Ciais, and Ivan A Janssens
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 841–855, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-841-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-841-2016, 2016
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We present a simple conceptual model of soil carbon decomposition (PRIM) able to reproduce priming experiments. Parameters were optimized using a Bayesian framework and evaluated against another set of soil incubation. PRIM better fit data than the original, CENTURY-type soil decomposition model. We then compared both models incorporated into the global land biosphere model ORCHIDEE. Both versions reproduced observed decay litter rates, but only ORCHIDEE-PRIM could simulate the observed priming.
C. Yue, P. Ciais, D. Zhu, T. Wang, S. S. Peng, and S. L. Piao
Biogeosciences, 13, 675–690, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-675-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-675-2016, 2016
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The pan-boreal biome (> N45°) removes CO2 from the atmosphere (i.e., it is a carbon sink). Fires can alter this carbon balance because they release CO2 to the atmosphere but also initiate a long-term carbon sink during post-fire vegetation recovery. We found that historical fires of 1850–2009 have a small net sink contribution (~6 %) to the 2000–2009 regional carbon sink, which is a balance between immediate source effect of fires in 2000–2009 and sink effects of those in 1850–1999.
S. Peng, P. Ciais, G. Krinner, T. Wang, I. Gouttevin, A. D. McGuire, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, B. Decharme, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, C. Delire, T. Hajima, D. Ji, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. A. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
The Cryosphere, 10, 179–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, 2016
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Soil temperature change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. Using nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, a large spread of soil temperature trends across the models. Air temperature and longwave downward radiation are the main drivers of soil temperature trends. Based on an emerging observation constraint method, the total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprised between 39 ± 14 × 103 and 75 ± 14 × 103 km2 yr−1 from 1960 to 2000.
N. MacBean, F. Maignan, P. Peylin, C. Bacour, F.-M. Bréon, and P. Ciais
Biogeosciences, 12, 7185–7208, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7185-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7185-2015, 2015
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Previous model evaluation studies have shown that terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) need a better representation of the leaf phenology, but the model deficiency could be related to incorrect model parameters or inaccurate model structure. This paper presents a framework for optimising the parameters of phenology models that are commonly used in TBMs. It further demonstrates that the optimisation can result in changes to trends in vegetation productivity and an improvement in gross C fluxes.
Y. Yin, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, G. Broquet, A. Fortems-Cheiney, I. Pison, and M. Saunois
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13433–13451, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13433-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13433-2015, 2015
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We studied the global CO concentration decline over the recent decade with a sophisticated atmospheric inversion system assimilating MOPITT CO retrievals, surface methane and surface methyl chloroform in situ measurements. The inversion interprets the CO concentration decline as a 23% decrease in the CO emissions from 2002 to 2011, twice the negative trend estimated by emission inventories. In contrast to bottom-up inventories, we find negative trends over China and South-east Asia.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, S. Sitch, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Friedlingstein, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, T. A. Boden, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, R. F. Keeling, P. Tans, A. Arneth, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Barbero, L. Bopp, J. Chang, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, P. Ciais, M. Fader, R. A. Feely, T. Gkritzalis, I. Harris, J. Hauck, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Kato, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, N. Metzl, F. Millero, D. R. Munro, A. Murata, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S. Nakaoka, Y. Nojiri, K. O'Brien, A. Olsen, T. Ono, F. F. Pérez, B. Pfeil, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, G. R. van der Werf, S. van Heuven, D. Vandemark, N. Viovy, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015
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Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. We describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on a range of data and models and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
N. Kadygrov, G. Broquet, F. Chevallier, L. Rivier, C. Gerbig, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12765–12787, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12765-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12765-2015, 2015
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We study the potential of the European Integrated Carbon Observing System (ICOS) atmospheric network for estimating European CO2 ecosystem fluxes. Regional atmospheric inversions with synthetic data are used to derive it in terms of statistical uncertainty. This potential is high in western Europe and future extensions of the network will increase it in eastern Europe. Future improvements of the models underlying the inversion should also significantly decrease uncertainties at high resolution.
X. Lin, N. K. Indira, M. Ramonet, M. Delmotte, P. Ciais, B. C. Bhatt, M. V. Reddy, D. Angchuk, S. Balakrishnan, S. Jorphail, T. Dorjai, T. T. Mahey, S. Patnaik, M. Begum, C. Brenninkmeijer, S. Durairaj, R. Kirubagaran, M. Schmidt, P. S. Swathi, N. V. Vinithkumar, C. Yver Kwok, and V. K. Gaur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9819–9849, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9819-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9819-2015, 2015
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We present 5-year flask measurements (2007–2011) of greenhouse gases (GHGs) at three atmospheric stations in India. The results suggest significant sources of CO2, CH4, N2O, CO, and H2 over S and NE India, while SF6 sources are weak. The seasonal cycles for each species reflect the seasonality of sources/sinks and influences of the Indian monsoon circulations. The data show potential to infer regional patterns of GHG fluxes and atmospheric transport over this under-documented region.
A. I. Stegehuis, R. Vautard, P. Ciais, A. J. Teuling, D. G. Miralles, and M. Wild
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2285–2298, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2285-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2285-2015, 2015
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Many climate models have difficulties in properly reproducing climate extremes such as heat wave conditions. We use a regional climate model with different atmospheric physics schemes to simulate the heat wave events of 2003 in western Europe and 2010 in Russia. The five best-performing and diverse physics scheme combinations may be used in the future to perform heat wave analysis and to investigate the impact of climate change in summer in Europe.
L. Molina, G. Broquet, P. Imbach, F. Chevallier, B. Poulter, D. Bonal, B. Burban, M. Ramonet, L. V. Gatti, S. C. Wofsy, J. W. Munger, E. Dlugokencky, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8423–8438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8423-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8423-2015, 2015
D. Zhu, S. S. Peng, P. Ciais, N. Viovy, A. Druel, M. Kageyama, G. Krinner, P. Peylin, C. Ottlé, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, D. Schepaschenko, and A. Shvidenko
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2263–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2263-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2263-2015, 2015
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This study presents a new parameterization of the vegetation dynamics module in the process-based ecosystem model ORCHIDEE for mid- to high-latitude regions, showing significant improvements in the modeled distribution of tree functional types north of 40°N. A new set of metrics is proposed to quantify the performance of ORCHIDEE, which integrates uncertainties in the observational data sets.
M. A. Rawlins, A. D. McGuire, J. S. Kimball, P. Dass, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, C. Delire, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, S. Peng, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, I. Gouttevin, T. Hajima, D. Ji, G. Krinner, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
Biogeosciences, 12, 4385–4405, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, 2015
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We used outputs from nine models to better understand land-atmosphere CO2 exchanges across Northern Eurasia over the period 1960-1990. Model estimates were assessed against independent ground and satellite measurements. We find that the models show a weakening of the CO2 sink over time; the models tend to overestimate respiration, causing an underestimate in NEP; the model range in regional NEP is twice the multimodel mean. Residence time for soil carbon decreased, amid a gain in carbon storage.
C. E. Yver Kwok, D. Müller, C. Caldow, B. Lebègue, J. G. Mønster, C. W. Rella, C. Scheutz, M. Schmidt, M. Ramonet, T. Warneke, G. Broquet, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 2853–2867, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2853-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2853-2015, 2015
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This study presents two methods for estimating methane emissions from a waste water treatment plant (WWTP) along with results from a measurement campaign at a WWTP in Valence, France. We show that the tracer release method is suitable to quantify facility emissions, while the chamber measurements, provide insights into individual processes. We confirm that the open basins are not a major source of CH4 on the WWTP but that the pretreatment and sludge treatment are the main emitters.
K. Frieler, A. Levermann, J. Elliott, J. Heinke, A. Arneth, M. F. P. Bierkens, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, D. Deryng, P. Döll, P. Falloon, B. Fekete, C. Folberth, A. D. Friend, C. Gellhorn, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, M. Lomas, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, K. Neumann, T. Oki, R. Pavlick, A. C. Ruane, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, T. Stacke, E. Stehfest, Q. Tang, D. Wisser, V. Huber, F. Piontek, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, H. Lotze-Campen, and H. J. Schellnhuber
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015
K. Nishina, A. Ito, P. Falloon, A. D. Friend, D. J. Beerling, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, R. Kahana, E. Kato, W. Lucht, M. Lomas, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, L. Warszawaski, and T. Yokohata
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 435–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-435-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-435-2015, 2015
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Our study focused on uncertainties in terrestrial C cycling under newly developed scenarios with CMIP5. This study presents first results for examining relative uncertainties of projected terrestrial C cycling in multiple projection components. Only using our new model inter-comparison project data sets enables us to evaluate various uncertainty sources in projection periods. The information on relative uncertainties is useful for climate science and climate change impact evaluation.
E. Joetzjer, C. Delire, H. Douville, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, D. Carrer, H. Verbeeck, M. De Weirdt, and D. Bonal
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1709–1727, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1709-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1709-2015, 2015
R. Wang, Y. Balkanski, O. Boucher, L. Bopp, A. Chappell, P. Ciais, D. Hauglustaine, J. Peñuelas, and S. Tao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6247–6270, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6247-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6247-2015, 2015
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This study makes a first attempt to estimate the temporal trend of Fe emissions from anthropogenic and natural combustion sources from 1960 to 2007 and the emissions of Fe from mineral dust based on a recent mineralogical database. The new emission inventory is introduced into a global aerosol model. The simulated total Fe and soluble Fe concentrations in surface air as well as the deposition of total Fe are evaluated by observations over major continental and oceanic regions globally.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, G. P. Peters, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, S. D. Jones, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, T. A. Boden, L. Bopp, Y. Bozec, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, F. Chevallier, C. E. Cosca, I. Harris, M. Hoppema, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, T. Johannessen, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, C. S. Landa, P. Landschützer, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, G. Marland, J. T. Mathis, N. Metzl, Y. Nojiri, A. Olsen, T. Ono, S. Peng, W. Peters, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. E. Salisbury, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, J. Segschneider, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, G. R. van der Werf, N. Viovy, Y.-P. Wang, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 47–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, 2015
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Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities (burning fossil fuels and cement production, deforestation and other land-use change) are set to rise again in 2014.
This study (updated yearly) makes an accurate assessment of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and their redistribution between the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in order to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change.
C. Yue, P. Ciais, P. Cadule, K. Thonicke, and T. T. van Leeuwen
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1321–1338, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1321-2015, 2015
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We conducted parallel simulations using a global land surface model, with and without fires being included, respectively. When the anthropogenic land cover change fire is excluded, we find that natural wildfires have reduced the global land carbon uptake by 0.3Pg C per year over 1901-2012. This is equivalent to 20% of the land carbon uptake in a world without fire. This fire-induced reduction in carbon uptake could be partly explained by climate variability, in particular the ENSO events.
F. M. Bréon, G. Broquet, V. Puygrenier, F. Chevallier, I. Xueref-Remy, M. Ramonet, E. Dieudonné, M. Lopez, M. Schmidt, O. Perrussel, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 1707–1724, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1707-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1707-2015, 2015
S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, N. Gruber, S. D. Jones, G. Murray-Tortarolo, A. Ahlström, S. C. Doney, H. Graven, C. Heinze, C. Huntingford, S. Levis, P. E. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, N. Zeng, A. Arneth, G. Bonan, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, R. Ellis, M. Gloor, P. Peylin, S. L. Piao, C. Le Quéré, B. Smith, Z. Zhu, and R. Myneni
Biogeosciences, 12, 653–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, 2015
E. Joetzjer, C. Delire, H. Douville, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, R. Fisher, B. Christoffersen, J. C. Calvet, A. C. L. da Costa, L. V. Ferreira, and P. Meir
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2933–2950, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2933-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2933-2014, 2014
M. Van Oijen, J. Balkovi, C. Beer, D. R. Cameron, P. Ciais, W. Cramer, T. Kato, M. Kuhnert, R. Martin, R. Myneni, A. Rammig, S. Rolinski, J.-F. Soussana, K. Thonicke, M. Van der Velde, and L. Xu
Biogeosciences, 11, 6357–6375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014, 2014
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We use a new risk analysis method, and six vegetation models, to analyse how climate change may alter drought risks in European ecosystems. The conclusions are (1) drought will pose increasing risks to productivity in the Mediterranean area; (2) this is because severe droughts will become more frequent, not because ecosystems will become more vulnerable; (3) future C sequestration will be at risk because carbon gain in primary productivity will be more affected than carbon loss in respiration.
C. Yue, P. Ciais, P. Cadule, K. Thonicke, S. Archibald, B. Poulter, W. M. Hao, S. Hantson, F. Mouillot, P. Friedlingstein, F. Maignan, and N. Viovy
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2747–2767, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2747-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2747-2014, 2014
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ORCHIDEE-SPITFIRE model could moderately capture the decadal trend and variation of burned area during the 20th century, and the spatial and temporal patterns of contemporary vegetation fires. The model has a better performance in simulating fires for regions dominated by climate-driven fires, such as boreal forests. However, it has limited capability to reproduce the infrequent but important large fires in different ecosystems, where urgent model improvement is needed in the future.
A. Agustí-Panareda, S. Massart, F. Chevallier, S. Boussetta, G. Balsamo, A. Beljaars, P. Ciais, N. M. Deutscher, R. Engelen, L. Jones, R. Kivi, J.-D. Paris, V.-H. Peuch, V. Sherlock, A. T. Vermeulen, P. O. Wennberg, and D. Wunch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11959–11983, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11959-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11959-2014, 2014
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This paper presents a new operational CO2 forecast product as part of the Copernicus Atmospheric Services suite of atmospheric composition products, using the state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model from the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
The evaluation with independent observations shows that the forecast has skill in predicting the synoptic variability of CO2. The online simulation of CO2 fluxes from vegetation contributes to this skill.
I. B. Konovalov, E. V. Berezin, P. Ciais, G. Broquet, M. Beekmann, J. Hadji-Lazaro, C. Clerbaux, M. O. Andreae, J. W. Kaiser, and E.-D. Schulze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10383–10410, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10383-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10383-2014, 2014
J. P. Boisier, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, and P. Ciais
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3571–3590, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3571-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3571-2014, 2014
B. P. Guillod, B. Orlowsky, D. Miralles, A. J. Teuling, P. D. Blanken, N. Buchmann, P. Ciais, M. Ek, K. L. Findell, P. Gentine, B. R. Lintner, R. L. Scott, B. Van den Hurk, and S. I. Seneviratne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8343–8367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8343-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8343-2014, 2014
J. B. Fisher, M. Sikka, W. C. Oechel, D. N. Huntzinger, J. R. Melton, C. D. Koven, A. Ahlström, M. A. Arain, I. Baker, J. M. Chen, P. Ciais, C. Davidson, M. Dietze, B. El-Masri, D. Hayes, C. Huntingford, A. K. Jain, P. E. Levy, M. R. Lomas, B. Poulter, D. Price, A. K. Sahoo, K. Schaefer, H. Tian, E. Tomelleri, H. Verbeeck, N. Viovy, R. Wania, N. Zeng, and C. E. Miller
Biogeosciences, 11, 4271–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014, 2014
P. Roudier, A. Ducharne, and L. Feyen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2789–2801, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2789-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2789-2014, 2014
M. Schmidt, M. Lopez, C. Yver Kwok, C. Messager, M. Ramonet, B. Wastine, C. Vuillemin, F. Truong, B. Gal, E. Parmentier, O. Cloué, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 2283–2296, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2283-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2283-2014, 2014
P. Ciais, A. J. Dolman, A. Bombelli, R. Duren, A. Peregon, P. J. Rayner, C. Miller, N. Gobron, G. Kinderman, G. Marland, N. Gruber, F. Chevallier, R. J. Andres, G. Balsamo, L. Bopp, F.-M. Bréon, G. Broquet, R. Dargaville, T. J. Battin, A. Borges, H. Bovensmann, M. Buchwitz, J. Butler, J. G. Canadell, R. B. Cook, R. DeFries, R. Engelen, K. R. Gurney, C. Heinze, M. Heimann, A. Held, M. Henry, B. Law, S. Luyssaert, J. Miller, T. Moriyama, C. Moulin, R. B. Myneni, C. Nussli, M. Obersteiner, D. Ojima, Y. Pan, J.-D. Paris, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, S. Plummer, S. Quegan, P. Raymond, M. Reichstein, L. Rivier, C. Sabine, D. Schimel, O. Tarasova, R. Valentini, R. Wang, G. van der Werf, D. Wickland, M. Williams, and C. Zehner
Biogeosciences, 11, 3547–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, 2014
A. Valade, P. Ciais, N. Vuichard, N. Viovy, A. Caubel, N. Huth, F. Marin, and J.-F. Martiné
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1225–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1225-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1225-2014, 2014
C. Rumpel, V. Chaplot, P. Ciais, A. Chabbi, B. Bouahom, and C. Valentin
Biogeosciences, 11, 3299–3305, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3299-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3299-2014, 2014
C. Le Quéré, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, R. M. Andrew, T. A. Boden, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, R. A. Houghton, G. Marland, R. Moriarty, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, S. C. Doney, A. Harper, I. Harris, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, S. D. Jones, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, A. Körtzinger, C. Koven, N. Lefèvre, F. Maignan, A. Omar, T. Ono, G.-H. Park, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. Schwinger, J. Segschneider, B. D. Stocker, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, S. van Heuven, N. Viovy, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and S. Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 235–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, 2014
X. Wu, F. Babst, P. Ciais, D. Frank, M. Reichstein, M. Wattenbach, C. Zang, and M. D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 11, 3057–3068, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3057-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3057-2014, 2014
M. Guimberteau, A. Ducharne, P. Ciais, J. P. Boisier, S. Peng, M. De Weirdt, and H. Verbeeck
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1115–1136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1115-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1115-2014, 2014
C. Szczypta, J.-C. Calvet, F. Maignan, W. Dorigo, F. Baret, and P. Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 931–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-931-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-931-2014, 2014
K. Nishina, A. Ito, D. J. Beerling, P. Cadule, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, P. Falloon, A. D. Friend, R. Kahana, E. Kato, R. Keribin, W. Lucht, M. Lomas, T. T. Rademacher, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, N. Vuichard, L. Warszawaski, and T. Yokohata
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 197–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-197-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-197-2014, 2014
S. X. Fang, L. X. Zhou, P. P. Tans, P. Ciais, M. Steinbacher, L. Xu, and T. Luan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 2541–2554, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2541-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2541-2014, 2014
R. Valentini, A. Arneth, A. Bombelli, S. Castaldi, R. Cazzolla Gatti, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, E. Grieco, J. Hartmann, M. Henry, R. A. Houghton, M. Jung, W. L. Kutsch, Y. Malhi, E. Mayorga, L. Merbold, G. Murray-Tortarolo, D. Papale, P. Peylin, B. Poulter, P. A. Raymond, M. Santini, S. Sitch, G. Vaglio Laurin, G. R. van der Werf, C. A. Williams, and R. J. Scholes
Biogeosciences, 11, 381–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-381-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-381-2014, 2014
J. F. Chang, N. Viovy, N. Vuichard, P. Ciais, T. Wang, A. Cozic, R. Lardy, A.-I. Graux, K. Klumpp, R. Martin, and J.-F. Soussana
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 2165–2181, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2165-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2165-2013, 2013
B. Guenet, F. E. Moyano, N. Vuichard, G. J. D. Kirk, P. H. Bellamy, S. Zaehle, and P. Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 2153–2163, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2153-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2153-2013, 2013
F. Souty, B. Dorin, T. Brunelle, P. Dumas, and P. Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-6-6975-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-6-6975-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
C. Yue, P. Ciais, S. Luyssaert, P. Cadule, J. Harden, J. Randerson, V. Bellassen, T. Wang, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, and N. Viovy
Biogeosciences, 10, 8233–8252, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8233-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8233-2013, 2013
E. Joetzjer, H. Douville, C. Delire, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, and S. Tyteca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4885–4895, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4885-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4885-2013, 2013
C. E. Yver-Kwok, D. Müller, C. Caldow, B. Lebegue, J. G. Mønster, C. W. Rella, C. Scheutz, M. Schmidt, M. Ramonet, T. Warneke, G. Broquet, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amtd-6-9181-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amtd-6-9181-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
B. Mueller, M. Hirschi, C. Jimenez, P. Ciais, P. A. Dirmeyer, A. J. Dolman, J. B. Fisher, M. Jung, F. Ludwig, F. Maignan, D. G. Miralles, M. F. McCabe, M. Reichstein, J. Sheffield, K. Wang, E. F. Wood, Y. Zhang, and S. I. Seneviratne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3707–3720, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3707-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3707-2013, 2013
E. V. Berezin, I. B. Konovalov, P. Ciais, A. Richter, S. Tao, G. Janssens-Maenhout, M. Beekmann, and E.-D. Schulze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9415–9438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9415-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9415-2013, 2013
G. Broquet, F. Chevallier, F.-M. Bréon, N. Kadygrov, M. Alemanno, F. Apadula, S. Hammer, L. Haszpra, F. Meinhardt, J. A. Morguí, J. Necki, S. Piacentino, M. Ramonet, M. Schmidt, R. L. Thompson, A. T. Vermeulen, C. Yver, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9039–9056, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9039-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9039-2013, 2013
M. Roland, P. Serrano-Ortiz, A. S. Kowalski, Y. Goddéris, E. P. Sánchez-Cañete, P. Ciais, F. Domingo, S. Cuezva, S. Sanchez-Moral, B. Longdoz, D. Yakir, R. Van Grieken, J. Schott, C. Cardell, and I. A. Janssens
Biogeosciences, 10, 5009–5017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5009-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5009-2013, 2013
T. Gasser and P. Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 171–186, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-171-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-171-2013, 2013
R. Wang, S. Tao, P. Ciais, H. Z. Shen, Y. Huang, H. Chen, G. F. Shen, B. Wang, W. Li, Y. Y. Zhang, Y. Lu, D. Zhu, Y. C. Chen, X. P. Liu, W. T. Wang, X. L. Wang, W. X. Liu, B. G. Li, and S. L. Piao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5189–5203, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5189-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5189-2013, 2013
C. Le Quéré, R. J. Andres, T. Boden, T. Conway, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, G. Marland, G. P. Peters, G. R. van der Werf, A. Ahlström, R. M. Andrew, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, P. Ciais, S. C. Doney, C. Enright, P. Friedlingstein, C. Huntingford, A. K. Jain, C. Jourdain, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, S. Levis, P. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, J. Schwinger, S. Sitch, B. D. Stocker, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 165–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-165-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-165-2013, 2013
B. Guenet, T. Eglin, N. Vasilyeva, P. Peylin, P. Ciais, and C. Chenu
Biogeosciences, 10, 2379–2392, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2379-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2379-2013, 2013
M. Ménégoz, G. Krinner, Y. Balkanski, A. Cozic, O. Boucher, and P. Ciais
The Cryosphere, 7, 537–554, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-537-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-537-2013, 2013
J. P. Boisier, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, and P. Ciais
Biogeosciences, 10, 1501–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1501-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1501-2013, 2013
P. K. Patra, J. G. Canadell, R. A. Houghton, S. L. Piao, N.-H. Oh, P. Ciais, K. R. Manjunath, A. Chhabra, T. Wang, T. Bhattacharya, P. Bousquet, J. Hartman, A. Ito, E. Mayorga, Y. Niwa, P. A. Raymond, V. V. S. S. Sarma, and R. Lasco
Biogeosciences, 10, 513–527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-513-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-513-2013, 2013
B. Ringeval, P. O. Hopcroft, P. J. Valdes, P. Ciais, G. Ramstein, A. J. Dolman, and M. Kageyama
Clim. Past, 9, 149–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-149-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-149-2013, 2013
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LM4-SHARC v1.0: resolving the catchment-scale soil–hillslope aquifer–river continuum for the GFDL Earth system modeling framework
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Hannes Müller Schmied, Simon Newland Gosling, Marlo Garnsworthy, Laura Müller, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Atiq Kainan Ahmed, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Julien Boulange, Peter Burek, Jinfeng Chang, He Chen, Lukas Gudmundsson, Manolis Grillakis, Luca Guillaumot, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Rohini Kumar, Guoyong Leng, Junguo Liu, Xingcai Liu, Inga Menke, Vimal Mishra, Yadu Pokhrel, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, Yusuke Satoh, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Mikhail Smilovic, Tobias Stacke, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Wim Thiery, Athanasios Tsilimigkras, Yoshihide Wada, Niko Wanders, and Tokuta Yokohata
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2409–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, 2025
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Global water models contribute to the evaluation of important natural and societal issues but are – as all models – simplified representation of reality. So, there are many ways to calculate the water fluxes and storages. This paper presents a visualization of 16 global water models using a standardized visualization and the pathway towards this common understanding. Next to academic education purposes, we envisage that these diagrams will help researchers, model developers, and data users.
Minki Hong, Nathaniel Chaney, Sergey Malyshev, Enrico Zorzetto, Anthony Preucil, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2275–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2275-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2275-2025, 2025
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This study shows the significance of groundwater in resolving the coupled terrestrial water–energy cycle. LM4-SHARC (soil–hillslope aquifer–river continuum) describes the hillslope groundwater using its emergent properties, yielding noticeable improvements in soil moisture/temperature and groundwater discharge predictions. The implications of groundwater-mediated hydrologic interactions between hillslopes and streams need further exploration in the Earth system modeling community.
Damian N. Mingo, Remko Nijzink, Christophe Ley, and Jack S. Hale
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1709–1736, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1709-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1709-2025, 2025
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Hydrologists are often faced with selecting amongst a set of competing models with different numbers of parameters and ability to fit available data. Bayes’ factor is a tool that can be used to compare models; however, it is very difficult to compute Bayes' factor numerically. In our paper, we explore and develop highly efficient algorithms for computing Bayes’ factor of hydrological systems, which will introduce this useful tool for selecting models into everyday hydrological practice.
Kerry L. Callaghan, Andrew D. Wickert, Richard Barnes, and Jacqueline Austermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1463–1486, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1463-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1463-2025, 2025
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We present the Water Table Model (WTM), a new model for simulating groundwater and lake levels at continental scales over millennia. The WTM enables long-term evaluations of water-table changes. As a proof of concept, we simulate the North American water table for the present and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), showing that North America held more groundwater and lake water during the LGM than it does today – enough to lower sea levels by 14.98 cm. The open-source code is available on GitHub.
Chi-Ling Wei, Pei-Chun Chen, Chien-Yu Tseng, Ting-Yu Dai, Yun-Ting Ho, Ching-Chun Chou, Christian Onof, and Li-Pen Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1357–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1357-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1357-2025, 2025
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pyBL is an open-source package for generating realistic rainfall time series based on the Bartlett–Lewis (BL) model. It can preserve not only standard but also extreme rainfall statistics across various timescales. Notably, compared to traditional frequency analysis methods, the BL model requires only half the record length (or even shorter) to achieve similar consistency in estimating sub-hourly rainfall extremes. This makes it a valuable tool for modelling rainfall extremes with short records.
Till Francke, Cosimo Brogi, Alby Duarte Rocha, Michael Förster, Maik Heistermann, Markus Köhli, Daniel Rasche, Marvin Reich, Paul Schattan, Lena Scheiffele, and Martin Schrön
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 819–842, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-819-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-819-2025, 2025
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Multiple methods for measuring soil moisture beyond the point scale exist. Their validation is generally hindered by not knowing the truth. We propose a virtual framework in which this truth is fully known and the sensor observations for cosmic ray neutron sensing, remote sensing, and hydrogravimetry are simulated. This allows for the rigorous testing of these virtual sensors to understand their effectiveness and limitations.
Zhi Li, Gregor Rickert, Na Zheng, Zhibo Zhang, Ilhan Özgen-Xian, and Daniel Caviedes-Voullième
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 547–562, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-547-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-547-2025, 2025
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We introduce SERGHEI-RE, a 3D subsurface flow simulator with performance-portable parallel computing capabilities. SERGHEI-RE performs effectively on various computational devices: from personal computers to advanced clusters. It allows users to solve flow equations with multiple numerical schemes, making it adaptable to various hydrological scenarios. Testing results show its accuracy and performance, confirming that SERGHEI-RE is a powerful tool for hydrological research.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Sebastian Ackermann, Denise Cáceres, Martina Flörke, Helena Gerdener, Ellen Kynast, Thedini Asali Peiris, Leonie Schiebener, Maike Schumacher, and Petra Döll
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8817–8852, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8817-2024, 2024
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Assessing water availability and water use at the global scale is challenging but essential for a range of purposes. We describe the newest version of the global hydrological model WaterGAP, which has been used for numerous water resource assessments since 1996. We show the effects of new model features, as well as model evaluations, against water abstraction statistics and observed streamflow and water storage anomalies. The publicly available model output for several variants is described.
Yanchen Zheng, Gemma Coxon, Mostaquimur Rahman, Ross Woods, Saskia Salwey, Youtong Rong, and Doris Wendt
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-211, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-211, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Groundwater is vital for people and ecosystems, but most physical models lack surface-groundwater interactions representation, leading to inaccurate streamflow predictions in groundwater-rich areas. This study presents DECIPHeR-GW v1, which links surface and groundwater systems to improve predictions of streamflow and groundwater levels. Tested across England and Wales, DECIPHeR-GW shows high accuracy, especially in south east England, making it a valuable tool for large-scale water management.
João António Martins Careto, Rita Margarida Cardoso, Ana Russo, Daniela Catarina André Lima, and Pedro Miguel Matos Soares
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8115–8139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8115-2024, 2024
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This study proposes a new daily drought index, the generalised drought index (GDI). The GDI not only identifies the same events as established indices but is also capable of improving their results. The index is empirically based and easy to compute, not requiring fitting the data to a probability distribution. The GDI can detect flash droughts and longer-term events, making it a versatile tool for drought monitoring.
Laura L. Swatridge, Ryan P. Mulligan, Leon Boegman, and Shiliang Shan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7751–7766, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7751-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7751-2024, 2024
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We develop an operational forecast system, Coastlines-LO, that can simulate water levels and surface waves in Lake Ontario driven by forecasts of wind speeds and pressure fields from an atmospheric model. The model has relatively low computational requirements, and results compare well with near-real-time observations, as well as with results from other existing forecast systems. Results show that with shorter forecast lengths, storm surge and wave predictions can improve in accuracy.
Robert Chlumsky, James R. Craig, and Bryan A. Tolson
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-184, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-184, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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We aim to improve mapping of floods, and present a new method for hydraulic modelling that uses a combination of novel geospatial analysis and existing hydraulic modelling approaches. This method is wrapped into a modelling software called Blackbird. We compared Blackbird to two other existing options for flood mapping and found that the Blackbird model outperformed both. The Blackbird model has the potential to support real-time and large-scale flood mapping applications in the future.
Dapeng Feng, Hylke Beck, Jens de Bruijn, Reetik Kumar Sahu, Yusuke Satoh, Yoshihide Wada, Jiangtao Liu, Ming Pan, Kathryn Lawson, and Chaopeng Shen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7181–7198, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7181-2024, 2024
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Accurate hydrologic modeling is vital to characterizing water cycle responses to climate change. For the first time at this scale, we use differentiable physics-informed machine learning hydrologic models to simulate rainfall–runoff processes for 3753 basins around the world and compare them with purely data-driven and traditional modeling approaches. This sets a benchmark for hydrologic estimates around the world and builds foundations for improving global hydrologic simulations.
Matevž Vremec, Raoul A. Collenteur, and Steffen Birk
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7083–7103, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7083-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7083-2024, 2024
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Geoscientists commonly use various potential evapotranpiration (PET) formulas for environmental studies, which can be prone to errors and sensitive to climate change. PyEt, a tested and open-source Python package, simplifies the application of 20 PET methods for both time series and gridded data, ensuring accurate and consistent PET estimations suitable for a wide range of environmental applications.
Nedal Aqel, Lea Reusser, Stephan Margreth, Andrea Carminati, and Peter Lehmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6949–6966, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6949-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6949-2024, 2024
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The soil water potential (SWP) determines various soil water processes. Since remote sensing techniques cannot measure it directly, it is often deduced from volumetric water content (VWC) information. However, under dynamic field conditions, the relationship between SWP and VWC is highly ambiguous due to different factors that cannot be modeled with the classical approach. Applying a deep neural network with an autoencoder enables the prediction of the dynamic SWP.
Jenny Kupzig, Nina Kupzig, and Martina Flörke
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6819–6846, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6819-2024, 2024
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Valid simulation results from global hydrological models (GHMs) are essential, e.g., to studying climate change impacts. Adapting GHMs to ungauged basins requires regionalization, enabling valid simulations. In this study, we highlight the impact of regionalization of GHMs on runoff simulations using an ensemble of regionalization methods for WaterGAP3. We have found that regionalization leads to temporally and spatially varying uncertainty, potentially reaching up to inter-model differences.
Dor Fridman, Mikhail Smilovic, Peter Burek, Sylvia Tramberend, and Taher Kahil
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-143, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-143, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Global hydrological models are applied at high spatial resolutions to quantify water availability and evaluate water scarcity mitigation options. Yet they mostly oversee important local processes. This paper presents and demonstrates the inclusion of wastewater treatment and reclamation into a global hydrological model. As a result model performance is improved, and models are capable to utilize treated wastewater as an alternative water source.
Manuel F. Rios Gaona, Katerina Michaelides, and Michael Bliss Singer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5387–5412, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5387-2024, 2024
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STORM v.2 (short for STOchastic Rainfall Model version 2.0) is an open-source and user-friendly modelling framework for simulating rainfall fields over a basin. It also allows simulating the impact of plausible climate change either on the total seasonal rainfall or the storm’s maximum intensity.
Lukas Riedel, Thomas Röösli, Thomas Vogt, and David N. Bresch
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5291–5308, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5291-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5291-2024, 2024
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River floods are among the most devastating natural hazards. We propose a flood model with a statistical approach based on openly available data. The model is integrated in a framework for estimating impacts of physical hazards. Although the model only agrees moderately with satellite-detected flood extents, we show that it can be used for forecasting the magnitude of flood events in terms of socio-economic impacts and for comparing these with past events.
Robin Schwemmle, Hannes Leistert, Andreas Steinbrich, and Markus Weiler
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5249–5262, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5249-2024, 2024
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The new process-based hydrological toolbox model, RoGeR (https://roger.readthedocs.io/), can be used to estimate the components of the hydrological cycle and the related travel times of pollutants through parts of the hydrological cycle. These estimations may contribute to effective water resources management. This paper presents the toolbox concept and provides a simple example of providing estimations to water resources management.
Sarah Hanus, Lilian Schuster, Peter Burek, Fabien Maussion, Yoshihide Wada, and Daniel Viviroli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5123–5144, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024, 2024
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This study presents a coupling of the large-scale glacier model OGGM and the hydrological model CWatM. Projected future increase in discharge is less strong while future decrease in discharge is stronger when glacier runoff is explicitly included in the large-scale hydrological model. This is because glacier runoff is projected to decrease in nearly all basins. We conclude that an improved glacier representation can prevent underestimating future discharge changes in large river basins.
M. Graham Clark and Sean K. Carey
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4911–4922, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4911-2024, 2024
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This paper provides validation of the Canadian Small Lakes Model (CSLM) for estimating evaporation rates from reservoirs and a refactoring of the original FORTRAN code into MATLAB and Python, which are now stored in GitHub repositories. Here we provide direct observations of the surface energy exchange obtained with an eddy covariance system to validate the CSLM. There was good agreement between observations and estimations except under specific atmospheric conditions when evaporation is low.
Thibault Hallouin, François Bourgin, Charles Perrin, Maria-Helena Ramos, and Vazken Andréassian
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4561–4578, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4561-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4561-2024, 2024
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The evaluation of the quality of hydrological model outputs against streamflow observations is widespread in the hydrological literature. In order to improve on the reproducibility of published studies, a new evaluation tool dedicated to hydrological applications is presented. It is open source and usable in a variety of programming languages to make it as accessible as possible to the community. Thus, authors and readers alike can use the same tool to produce and reproduce the results.
Barnaby Dobson, Leyang Liu, and Ana Mijic
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4495–4513, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4495-2024, 2024
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Water management is challenging when models don't capture the entire water cycle. We propose that using integrated models facilitates management and improves understanding. We introduce a software tool designed for this task. We discuss its foundation, how it simulates water system components and their interactions, and its customisation. We provide a flexible way to represent water systems, and we hope it will inspire more research and practical applications for sustainable water management.
Qi Tang, Hugo Delottier, Wolfgang Kurtz, Lars Nerger, Oliver S. Schilling, and Philip Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3559–3578, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3559-2024, 2024
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We have developed a new data assimilation framework by coupling an integrated hydrological model HydroGeoSphere with the data assimilation software PDAF. Compared to existing hydrological data assimilation systems, the advantage of our newly developed framework lies in its consideration of the physically based model; its large selection of different assimilation algorithms; and its modularity with respect to the combination of different types of observations, states and parameters.
Willem J. van Verseveld, Albrecht H. Weerts, Martijn Visser, Joost Buitink, Ruben O. Imhoff, Hélène Boisgontier, Laurène Bouaziz, Dirk Eilander, Mark Hegnauer, Corine ten Velden, and Bobby Russell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3199–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3199-2024, 2024
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We present the wflow_sbm distributed hydrological model, recently released by Deltares, as part of the Wflow.jl open-source modelling framework in the programming language Julia. Wflow_sbm has a fast runtime, making it suitable for large-scale modelling. Wflow_sbm models can be set a priori for any catchment with the Python tool HydroMT-Wflow based on globally available datasets, which results in satisfactory to good performance (without much tuning). We show this for a number of specific cases.
Sanchit Minocha, Faisal Hossain, Pritam Das, Sarath Suresh, Shahzaib Khan, George Darkwah, Hyongki Lee, Stefano Galelli, Konstantinos Andreadis, and Perry Oddo
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3137–3156, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3137-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3137-2024, 2024
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The Reservoir Assessment Tool (RAT) merges satellite data with hydrological models, enabling robust estimation of reservoir parameters like inflow, outflow, surface area, and storage changes around the world. Version 3.0 of RAT lowers the barrier of entry for new users and achieves scalability and computational efficiency. RAT 3.0 also facilitates open-source development of functions for continuous improvement to mobilize and empower the global water management community.
Heloisa Ehalt Macedo, Bernhard Lehner, Jim Nicell, and Günther Grill
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2877–2899, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2877-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2877-2024, 2024
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Treated and untreated wastewaters are sources of contaminants of emerging concern. HydroFATE, a new global model, estimates their concentrations in surface waters, identifying streams that are most at risk and guiding monitoring/mitigation efforts to safeguard aquatic ecosystems and human health. Model predictions were validated against field measurements of the antibiotic sulfamethoxazole, with predicted concentrations exceeding ecological thresholds in more than 400 000 km of rivers worldwide.
Guoqiang Tang, Andrew W. Wood, Andrew J. Newman, Martyn P. Clark, and Simon Michael Papalexiou
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1153–1173, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1153-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1153-2024, 2024
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Ensemble geophysical datasets are crucial for understanding uncertainties and supporting probabilistic estimation/prediction. However, open-access tools for creating these datasets are limited. We have developed the Python-based Geospatial Probabilistic Estimation Package (GPEP). Through several experiments, we demonstrate GPEP's ability to estimate precipitation, temperature, and snow water equivalent. GPEP will be a useful tool to support uncertainty analysis in Earth science applications.
Atabek Umirbekov, Richard Essery, and Daniel Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 911–929, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-911-2024, 2024
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We present a parsimonious snow model which simulates snow mass without the need for extensive calibration. The model is based on a machine learning algorithm that has been trained on diverse set of daily observations of snow accumulation or melt, along with corresponding climate and topography data. We validated the model using in situ data from numerous new locations. The model provides a promising solution for accurate snow mass estimation across regions where in situ data are limited.
Ciaran J. Harman and Esther Xu Fei
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 477–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-477-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-477-2024, 2024
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Over the last 10 years, scientists have developed StorAge Selection: a new way of modeling how material is transported through complex systems. Here, we present some new, easy-to-use, flexible, and very accurate code for implementing this method. We show that, in cases where we know exactly what the answer should be, our code gets the right answer. We also show that our code is closer than some other codes to the right answer in an important way: it conserves mass.
Lele Shu, Paul Ullrich, Xianhong Meng, Christopher Duffy, Hao Chen, and Zhaoguo Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 497–527, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-497-2024, 2024
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Our team developed rSHUD v2.0, a toolkit that simplifies the use of the SHUD, a model simulating water movement in the environment. We demonstrated its effectiveness in two watersheds, one in the USA and one in China. The toolkit also facilitated the creation of the Global Hydrological Data Cloud, a platform for automatic data processing and model deployment, marking a significant advancement in hydrological research.
Jarno Verkaik, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink, Hai Xiang Lin, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 275–300, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-275-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-275-2024, 2024
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This paper presents the parallel PCR-GLOBWB global-scale groundwater model at 30 arcsec resolution (~1 km at the Equator). Named GLOBGM v1.0, this model is a follow-up of the 5 arcmin (~10 km) model, aiming for a higher-resolution simulation of worldwide fresh groundwater reserves under climate change and excessive pumping. For a long transient simulation using a parallel prototype of MODFLOW 6, we show that our implementation is efficient for a relatively low number of processor cores.
Han Qiu, Gautam Bisht, Lingcheng Li, Dalei Hao, and Donghui Xu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 143–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-143-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-143-2024, 2024
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We developed and validated an inter-grid-cell lateral groundwater flow model for both saturated and unsaturated zone in the ELMv2.0 framework. The developed model was benchmarked against PFLOTRAN, a 3D subsurface flow and transport model and showed comparable performance with PFLOTRAN. The developed model was also applied to the Little Washita experimental watershed. The spatial pattern of simulated groundwater table depth agreed well with the global groundwater table benchmark dataset.
Daniel Boateng and Sebastian G. Mutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6479–6514, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6479-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6479-2023, 2023
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We present an open-source Python framework for performing empirical-statistical downscaling of climate information, such as precipitation. The user-friendly package comprises all the downscaling cycles including data preparation, model selection, training, and evaluation, designed in an efficient and flexible manner, allowing for quick and reproducible downscaling products. The framework would contribute to climate change impact assessments by generating accurate high-resolution climate data.
Masaya Yoshikai, Takashi Nakamura, Eugene C. Herrera, Rempei Suwa, Rene Rollon, Raghab Ray, Keita Furukawa, and Kazuo Nadaoka
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5847–5863, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5847-2023, 2023
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Due to complex root system structures, representing the impacts of Rhizophora mangroves on flow in hydrodynamic models has been challenging. This study presents a new drag and turbulence model that leverages an empirical model for root systems. The model can be applied without rigorous measurements of root structures and showed high performance in flow simulations; this may provide a better understanding of hydrodynamics and related transport processes in Rhizophora mangrove forests.
Hao Chen, Tiejun Wang, Yonggen Zhang, Yun Bai, and Xi Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5685–5701, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5685-2023, 2023
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Effectively assembling multiple models for approaching a benchmark solution remains a long-standing issue for various geoscience domains. We here propose an automated machine learning-assisted ensemble framework (AutoML-Ens) that attempts to resolve this challenge. Results demonstrate the great potential of AutoML-Ens for improving estimations due to its two unique features, i.e., assigning dynamic weights for candidate models and taking full advantage of AutoML-assisted workflow.
Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Fuqiang Tian, Thomas Wild, Mengqi Zhao, Sean Turner, A. F. M. Kamal Chowdhury, Chris R. Vernon, Hongchang Hu, Yuan Zhuang, Mohamad Hejazi, and Hong-Yi Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5449–5472, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5449-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5449-2023, 2023
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Most existing global hydrologic models do not explicitly represent hydropower reservoirs. We are introducing a new water management module to Xanthos that distinguishes between the operational characteristics of irrigation, hydropower, and flood control reservoirs. We show that this explicit representation of hydropower reservoirs can lead to a significantly more realistic simulation of reservoir storage and releases in over 44 % of the hydropower reservoirs included in this study.
Javier Diez-Sierra, Salvador Navas, and Manuel del Jesus
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5035–5048, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5035-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5035-2023, 2023
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NEOPRENE is an open-source, freely available library allowing scientists and practitioners to generate synthetic time series and maps of rainfall. These outputs will help to explore plausible events that were never observed in the past but may occur in the near future and to generate possible future events under climate change conditions. The paper shows how to use the library to downscale daily precipitation and how to use synthetic generation to improve our characterization of extreme events.
Adam Pasik, Alexander Gruber, Wolfgang Preimesberger, Domenico De Santis, and Wouter Dorigo
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4957–4976, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4957-2023, 2023
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We apply the exponential filter (EF) method to satellite soil moisture retrievals to estimate the water content in the unobserved root zone globally from 2002–2020. Quality assessment against an independent dataset shows satisfactory results. Error characterization is carried out using the standard uncertainty propagation law and empirically estimated values of EF model structural uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. This is followed by analysis of temporal uncertainty variations.
Po-Wei Huang, Bernd Flemisch, Chao-Zhong Qin, Martin O. Saar, and Anozie Ebigbo
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4767–4791, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4767-2023, 2023
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Water in natural environments consists of many ions. Ions are electrically charged and exert electric forces on each other. We discuss whether the electric forces are relevant in describing mixing and reaction processes in natural environments. By comparing our computer simulations to lab experiments in literature, we show that the electric interactions between ions can play an essential role in mixing and reaction processes, in which case they should not be neglected in numerical modeling.
Edward R. Jones, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Niko Wanders, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Ludovicus P. H. van Beek, and Michelle T. H. van Vliet
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4481–4500, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4481-2023, 2023
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DynQual is a new high-resolution global water quality model for simulating total dissolved solids, biological oxygen demand and fecal coliform as indicators of salinity, organic pollution and pathogen pollution, respectively. Output data from DynQual can supplement the observational record of water quality data, which is highly fragmented across space and time, and has the potential to inform assessments in a broad range of fields including ecological, human health and water scarcity studies.
Hugo Delottier, John Doherty, and Philip Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4213–4231, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4213-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4213-2023, 2023
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Long run times are usually a barrier to the quantification and reduction of predictive uncertainty with complex hydrological models. Data space inversion (DSI) provides an alternative and highly model-run-efficient method for uncertainty quantification. This paper demonstrates DSI's ability to robustly quantify predictive uncertainty and extend the methodology to provide practical metrics that can guide data acquisition and analysis to achieve goals of decision-support modelling.
Zhipin Ai and Naota Hanasaki
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3275–3290, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3275-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3275-2023, 2023
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Simultaneously simulating food production and the requirements and availability of water resources in a spatially explicit manner within a single framework remains challenging on a global scale. Here, we successfully enhanced the global hydrological model H08 that considers human water use and management to simulate the yields of four major staple crops: maize, wheat, rice, and soybean. Our improved model will be beneficial for advancing global food–water nexus studies in the future.
Emilie Rouzies, Claire Lauvernet, Bruno Sudret, and Arthur Vidard
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3137–3163, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3137-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3137-2023, 2023
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Water and pesticide transfer models are complex and should be simplified to be used in decision support. Indeed, these models simulate many spatial processes in interaction, involving a large number of parameters. Sensitivity analysis allows us to select the most influential input parameters, but it has to be adapted to spatial modelling. This study will identify relevant methods that can be transposed to any hydrological and water quality model and improve the fate of pesticide knowledge.
Guoding Chen, Ke Zhang, Sheng Wang, Yi Xia, and Lijun Chao
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2915–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2915-2023, 2023
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In this study, we developed a novel modeling system called iHydroSlide3D v1.0 by coupling a modified a 3D landslide model with a distributed hydrology model. The model is able to apply flexibly different simulating resolutions for hydrological and slope stability submodules and gain a high computational efficiency through parallel computation. The test results in the Yuehe River basin, China, show a good predicative capability for cascading flood–landslide events.
Jens A. de Bruijn, Mikhail Smilovic, Peter Burek, Luca Guillaumot, Yoshihide Wada, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2437–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023, 2023
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We present a computer simulation model of the hydrological system and human system, which can simulate the behaviour of individual farmers and their interactions with the water system at basin scale to assess how the systems have evolved and are projected to evolve in the future. For example, we can simulate the effect of subsidies provided on investment in adaptation measures and subsequent effects in the hydrological system, such as a lowering of the groundwater table or reservoir level.
Matthew D. Wilson and Thomas J. Coulthard
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2415–2436, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2415-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2415-2023, 2023
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During flooding, the sources of water that inundate a location can influence impacts such as pollution. However, methods to trace water sources in flood events are currently only available in complex, computationally expensive hydraulic models. We propose a simplified method which can be added to efficient, reduced-complexity model codes, enabling an improved understanding of flood dynamics and its impacts. We demonstrate its application for three sites at a range of spatial and temporal scales.
Bibi S. Naz, Wendy Sharples, Yueling Ma, Klaus Goergen, and Stefan Kollet
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1617–1639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1617-2023, 2023
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It is challenging to apply a high-resolution integrated land surface and groundwater model over large spatial scales. In this paper, we demonstrate the application of such a model over a pan-European domain at 3 km resolution and perform an extensive evaluation of simulated water states and fluxes by comparing with in situ and satellite data. This study can serve as a benchmark and baseline for future studies of climate change impact projections and for hydrological forecasting.
Jiangtao Liu, David Hughes, Farshid Rahmani, Kathryn Lawson, and Chaopeng Shen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1553–1567, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1553-2023, 2023
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Under-monitored regions like Africa need high-quality soil moisture predictions to help with food production, but it is not clear if soil moisture processes are similar enough around the world for data-driven models to maintain accuracy. We present a deep-learning-based soil moisture model that learns from both in situ data and satellite data and performs better than satellite products at the global scale. These results help us apply our model globally while better understanding its limitations.
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Short summary
We show a new irrigation scheme included in the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The new irrigation scheme restrains irrigation due to water shortage, includes water adduction, and represents environmental limits and facilities to access water, due to representing infrastructure in a simple way. Our results show that the new irrigation scheme helps simulate acceptable land surface conditions and fluxes in irrigated areas, even if there are difficulties due to shortcomings and limited information.
We show a new irrigation scheme included in the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The new irrigation...
