Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model experiment description paper
| 
04 Jan 2024
Model experiment description paper |
| 04 Jan 2024
| 04 Jan 2024
Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a)
Katja Frieler
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Jan Volkholz
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Stefan Lange
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Jacob Schewe
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Matthias Mengel
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
María del Rocío Rivas López
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Christian Otto
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Christopher P. O. Reyer
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Dirk Nikolaus Karger
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Johanna T. Malle
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Simon Treu
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Christoph Menz
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Julia L. Blanchard
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Cheryl S. Harrison
Department of Ocean and Coastal Science and Center for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA
Colleen M. Petrik
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, CA, USA
Tyler D. Eddy
Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries & Marine Institute, Memorial University, St. John's, NL, Canada
Kelly Ortega-Cisneros
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, Cape Town, 7701, South Africa
Camilla Novaglio
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Yannick Rousseau
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Reg A. Watson
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Charles Stock
NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Xiao Liu
SAIC@NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center, 5830 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Ryan Heneghan
School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
Derek Tittensor
Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, B3H 4R2, Canada
Olivier Maury
Institute for Research for Development, UMR 248 MARBEC, Montpellier, France
Matthias Büchner
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Thomas Vogt
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Tingting Wang
Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Fubao Sun
Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Inga J. Sauer
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Johannes Koch
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Inne Vanderkelen
Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Wyss Academy for Nature, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Climate and Environmental Physics and Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Jonas Jägermeyr
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA
Climate School, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA
Christoph Müller
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Sam Rabin
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO 80302, USA
Jochen Klar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Iliusi D. Vega del Valle
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Gitta Lasslop
Senckenberg Leibniz Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Sarah Chadburn
Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Eleanor Burke
Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, UK
Angela Gallego-Sala
Geography Department, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Noah Smith
Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Jinfeng Chang
College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
Stijn Hantson
Faculty of Natural Sciences, Universidad del Rosario, Bogotá, Colombia
Chantelle Burton
Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, UK
Anne Gädeke
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Simon N. Gosling
School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
Hannes Müller Schmied
Senckenberg Leibniz Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Fred Hattermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Jida Wang
Department of Geography and Geospatial Sciences, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas, USA
Fangfang Yao
Environmental Resilience Institute, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 22903, USA
Thomas Hickler
Senckenberg Leibniz Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Rafael Marcé
Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), 17003 Girona, Spain
ICRA, Universitat de Girona, Girona, Spain
Don Pierson
Department of Ecology and Genetics, Limnology, Uppsala University, Norbyvägen 18 D, 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden
Wim Thiery
Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Daniel Mercado-Bettín
Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), 17003 Girona, Spain
Robert Ladwig
Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA
Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora
Department of Ecology and Genetics, Limnology, Uppsala University, Norbyvägen 18 D, 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden
Matthew Forrest
Senckenberg Leibniz Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Michel Bechtold
KU Leuven, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Leuven, Belgium
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Jerome Guiet, Daniele Bianchi, Kim J. N. Scherrer, Ryan F. Heneghan, and Eric D. Galbraith
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In this study, we improve an existing climate model to account for human water usage across domestic, industrial, and agriculture purposes. With the new capabilities, the model is now better equipped for studying questions related to water scarcity in both present and future conditions under climate change. Despite the advancements, there remains important limitations in our modelling framework which requires further work.
Fang Li, Zhimin Zhou, Samuel Levis, Stephen Sitch, Felicity Hayes, Zhaozhong Feng, Peter Reich, Zhiyi Zhao, and Yanqing Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-6, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
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This study introduces a new scheme to simulate surface ozone damage to vegetation in regional and global process-based models. Based on 4210 data points from ozone experiments, it accurately reproduces statistically significant linear or nonlinear photosynthetic and stomatal response to ozone in observations for all vegetation types. It also enables models to implicitly capture the variability in plant ozone tolerance and the shift among species within a vegetation type.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 265–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, 2024
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Changes in land use are crucial to achieve lower global warming. However, despite their importance, the effects of these changes on moisture fluxes are poorly understood. We analyse land cover and management scenarios in three climate models involving cropland expansion, afforestation, and irrigation. Results show largely consistent influences on moisture fluxes, with cropland expansion causing a drying and reduced local moisture recycling, while afforestation and irrigation show the opposite.
Rosa Pietroiusti, Inne Vanderkelen, Friederike E. L. Otto, Clair Barnes, Lucy Temple, Mary Akurut, Philippe Bally, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 225–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-225-2024, 2024
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Heavy rainfall in eastern Africa between late 2019 and mid 2020 caused devastating floods and landslides and drove the levels of Lake Victoria to a record-breaking maximum in May 2020. In this study, we characterize the spatial extent and impacts of the floods in the Lake Victoria basin and investigate how human-induced climate change influenced the probability and intensity of the record-breaking lake levels and flooding by applying a multi-model extreme event attribution methodology.
Simon Treu, Sanne Muis, Sönke Dangendorf, Thomas Wahl, Julius Oelsmann, Stefanie Heinicke, Katja Frieler, and Matthias Mengel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1121–1136, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1121-2024, 2024
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This article describes a reconstruction of monthly coastal water levels from 1900–2015 and hourly data from 1979–2015, both with and without long-term sea level rise. The dataset is based on a combination of three datasets that are focused on different aspects of coastal water levels. Comparison with tide gauge records shows that this combination brings reconstructions closer to the observations compared to the individual datasets.
Camilla Therese Mathison, Eleanor Burke, Eszter Kovacs, Gregory Munday, Chris Huntingford, Chris Jones, Chris Smith, Norman Steinert, Andy Wiltshire, Laila Gohar, and Rebecca Varney
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2932, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2932, 2024
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We present PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions), which is designed to take new emission scenarios and rapidly provide regional impacts information. PRIME allows large ensembles to be run on multi-centennial timescales including analysis of many important variables for impacts assessments. Our evaluation shows that PRIME reproduces the climate response for known scenarios giving confidence in using PRIME for novel scenarios.
Dominik Paprotny, Belinda Rhein, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Paweł Terefenko, Francesco Dottori, Simon Treu, Jakub Śledziowski, Luc Feyen, and Heidi Kreibich
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-499, 2024
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Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors including climate variation, population and economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction and flood risk reduction measures. Here, we reconstruct the factual circumstances in which almost 15,000 potential floods riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe occurred between 1950 and 2020. About 10 % of those events were reported to have caused significant socioeconomic impacts.
Stephen Björn Wirth, Johanna Braun, Jens Heinke, Sebastian Ostberg, Susanne Rolinski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Fabian Stenzel, Werner von Bloh, and Christoph Müller
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2946, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2946, 2024
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We present a new approach to model biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) in the Lund Potsdam Jena managed Land dynamic global vegetation model. While in the original approach BNF depended on actual evapotranspiration, the new approach considers soil water content and temperature, the nitrogen (N) deficit and carbon (C) costs. The new approach improved global sums and spatial patterns of BNF compared to the scientific literature and the models’ ability to project future C and N cycle dynamics.
Andrew C. Ross, Charles A. Stock, Vimal Koul, Thomas L. Delworth, Feiyu Lu, Andrew Wittenberg, and Michael A. Alexander
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-394, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-394, 2024
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In this paper, we use a high resolution regional ocean model to downscale seasonal ocean forecasts from GFDL’s SPEAR model. We find that the downscaled model has significantly higher prediction skill in many cases.
Colin Gareth Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben Booth, Peter Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene Hewitt, Hazel Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm Roberts, Benjamin Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Markus G. Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Froelicher, Neven Fuckar, Matthew Gidden, Helge Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, Jose Manuel Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason A. Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Melia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-453, 2024
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We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming ~6 years (i.e. to 2030). Advances in these areas will increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, as well as deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as the 7th IPCC Assessment Report and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake under the Paris Climate Agreement.
Jonas Mortelmans, Anne Felsberg, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Sander Veraverbeke, Robert D. Field, Niels Andela, and Michel Bechtold
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 445–464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, 2024
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With global warming increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires in the boreal region, accurate risk assessments are becoming more crucial than ever before. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a renowned system, yet its effectiveness in peatlands, where hydrology plays a key role, is limited. By incorporating groundwater data from numerical models and satellite observations, our modified FWI improves the accuracy of fire danger predictions, especially over summer.
Florian Zellweger, Eric Sulmoni, Johanna T. Malle, Andri Baltensweiler, Tobias Jonas, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Christian Ginzler, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Pieter De Frenne, David Frey, and Clare Webster
Biogeosciences, 21, 605–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-605-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-605-2024, 2024
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The microclimatic conditions experienced by organisms living close to the ground are not well represented in currently used climate datasets derived from weather stations. Therefore, we measured and mapped ground microclimate temperatures at 10 m spatial resolution across Switzerland using a novel radiation model. Our results reveal a high variability in microclimates across different habitats and will help to better understand climate and land use impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems.
Stephen Björn Wirth, Arne Poyda, Friedhelm Taube, Britta Tietjen, Christoph Müller, Kirsten Thonicke, Anja Linstädter, Kai Behn, Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, and Susanne Rolinski
Biogeosciences, 21, 381–410, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-381-2024, 2024
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In dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), the role of functional diversity in forage supply and soil organic carbon storage of grasslands is not explicitly taken into account. We introduced functional diversity into the Lund Potsdam Jena managed Land (LPJmL) DGVM using CSR theory. The new model reproduced well-known trade-offs between plant traits and can be used to quantify the role of functional diversity in climate change mitigation using different functional diversity scenarios.
Felix Jäger, Jonas Schwaab, Yann Quilcaille, Michael Windisch, Jonathan Doelman, Stefan Frank, Mykola Gusti, Petr Havlik, Florian Humpenöder, Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Christoph Müller, Kanishka B. Narayan, Ryan S. Padrón, Alexander Popp, Detlef van Vuuren, Michael Wögerer, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-15, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-15, 2024
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Climate change mitigation strategies developed with socio-economic models rely on the wide-spread (re)planting of trees to limit global warming below 2 degrees. However, most of these models neglect climate-driven shifts in forest damages like fires. By assessing existing mitigation scenarios, we show the exposure of projected forestation areas to fire-promoting weather conditions. Our study highlights the problem of ignoring climate-driven shifts in forest damages and ways to address it.
Lukas Riedel, Thomas Röösli, Thomas Vogt, and David N. Bresch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-93, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-93, 2024
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River floods are among the most devastating natural disasters. We propose a flood model with statistical approach based on openly available data. The model is integrated in a framework for estimating impacts of physical hazards. Although the model only agrees moderately with satellite detected floods, we show that it can be used for forecasting the magnitude of flood events in terms of humanitarian impacts and for comparing these with past events.
Tuula Aalto, Aki Tsuruta, Jarmo Mäkelä, Jurek Mueller, Maria Tenkanen, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Yao Gao, Vilma Mannisenaho, Thomas Kleinen, Hanna Lee, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Stefano Materia, Paul Miller, Daniele Peano, Olli Peltola, Benjamin Poulter, Maarit Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, David Wårlind, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2873, 2024
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Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation were studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in Northern Europe using ecosystem models, atmospheric inversions and up-scaled flux observations. The ecosystem models differed in their responses to temperature and precipitation and in their seasonality. However, multi-model means, inversions and up-scaled fluxes had similar seasonality, and they suggested co-limitation by temperature and precipitation.
Celray James Chawanda, Albert Nkwasa, Wim Thiery, and Ann van Griensven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 117–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, 2024
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Africa's water resources are being negatively impacted by climate change and land-use change. The SWAT+ hydrological model was used to simulate the hydrological cycle in Africa, and results show likely decreases in river flows in the Zambezi and Congo rivers and highest flows in the Niger River basins due to climate change. Land cover change had the biggest impact in the Congo River basin, emphasizing the importance of including land-use change in studies.
Austin Delany, Robert Ladwig, Cal Buelo, Ellen Albright, and Paul C. Hanson
Biogeosciences, 20, 5211–5228, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5211-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5211-2023, 2023
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Internal and external sources of organic carbon (OC) in lakes can contribute to oxygen depletion, but their relative contributions remain in question. To study this, we built a two-layer model to recreate processes relevant to carbon for six Wisconsin lakes. We found that internal OC was more important than external OC in depleting oxygen. This shows that it is important to consider both the fast-paced cycling of internally produced OC and the slower cycling of external OC when studying lakes.
Sam S. Rabin, William J. Sacks, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Lili Xia, and Alan Robock
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7253–7273, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7253-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7253-2023, 2023
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Climate models can help us simulate how the agricultural system will be affected by and respond to environmental change, but to be trustworthy they must realistically reproduce historical patterns. When farmers plant their crops and what varieties they choose will be important aspects of future adaptation. Here, we improve the crop component of a global model to better simulate observed growing seasons and examine the impacts on simulated crop yields and irrigation demand.
Weihang Liu, Tao Ye, Christoph Müller, Jonas Jägermeyr, James A. Franke, Haynes Stephens, and Shuo Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7203–7221, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7203-2023, 2023
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We develop a machine-learning-based crop model emulator with the inputs and outputs of multiple global gridded crop model ensemble simulations to capture the year-to-year variation of crop yield under future climate change. The emulator can reproduce the year-to-year variation of simulated yield given by the crop models under CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen perturbations. Developing this emulator can provide a tool to project future climate change impact in a simple way.
Mathilde Dugenne, Marco Corrales-Ugalde, Jessica Luo, Rainer Kiko, Todd O'Brien, Jean-Olivier Irisson, Fabien Lombard, Lars Stemmann, Charles Stock, Clarissa R. Anderson, Marcel Babin, Nagib Bhairy, Sophie Bonnet, Francois Carlotti, Astrid Cornils, E. Taylor Crockford, Patrick Daniel, Corinne Desnos, Laetitia Drago, Amanda Elineau, Alexis Fischer, Nina Grandrémy, Pierre-Luc Grondin, Lionel Guidi, Cecile Guieu, Helena Hauss, Kendra Hayashi, Jenny A. Huggett, Laetitia Jalabert, Lee Karp-Boss, Kasia M. Kenitz, Raphael M. Kudela, Magali Lescot, Claudie Marec, Andrew McDonnell, Zoe Mériguet, Barbara Niehoff, Margaux Noyon, Thelma Panaïotis, Emily Peacock, Marc Picheral, Emilie Riquier, Collin Roesler, Jean-Baptiste Romagnan, Heidi M. Sosik, Gretchen Spencer, Jan Taucher, Chloé Tilliette, and Marion Vilain
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-479, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-479, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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Plankton and particles influence carbon cycling and energy flow in marine ecosystems. We used three types of novel plankton imaging systems to obtain size measurements from a range of plankton and particle sizes and across all major oceans. Data were compiled and cross-calibrated from many thousands of images, showing seasonal and spatial changes in particle size structure in different ocean basins. These datasets form the first release of the Pelagic Size Structure database (PSSdb).
Bijan Fallah, Christoph Menz, Emmanuele Russo, Paula Harder, Peter Hoffmann, Iulii Didovets, and Fred F. Hattermann
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-227, 2023
Preprint under review for GMD
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We tried to contribute to the local climate change impact study in Central Asia, a water-scarce and vulnerable region to global climate change. We use regional models and machine learning to produce reliable local data from global climate models. We find that regional models show more realistic and detailed changes in heavy precipitation than global climate models. Our work can help assess the future risks of extreme events and plan adaptation strategies in Central Asia.
Andrew C. Ross, Charles A. Stock, Alistair Adcroft, Enrique Curchitser, Robert Hallberg, Matthew J. Harrison, Katherine Hedstrom, Niki Zadeh, Michael Alexander, Wenhao Chen, Elizabeth J. Drenkard, Hubert du Pontavice, Raphael Dussin, Fabian Gomez, Jasmin G. John, Dujuan Kang, Diane Lavoie, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Vincent Saba, Sang-Ik Shin, Samantha Siedlecki, and James Simkins
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6943–6985, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6943-2023, 2023
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We evaluate a model for northwest Atlantic Ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry that balances high resolution with computational economy by building on the new regional features in the MOM6 ocean model and COBALT biogeochemical model. We test the model's ability to simulate impactful historical variability and find that the model simulates the mean state and variability of most features well, which suggests the model can provide information to inform living-marine-resource applications.
Yang Chen, Joanne Hall, Dave van Wees, Niels Andela, Stijn Hantson, Louis Giglio, Guido R. van der Werf, Douglas C. Morton, and James T. Randerson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5227–5259, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5227-2023, 2023
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Using multiple sets of remotely sensed data, we created a dataset of monthly global burned area from 1997 to 2020. The estimated annual global burned area is 774 million hectares, significantly higher than previous estimates. Burned area declined by 1.21% per year due to extensive fire loss in savanna, grassland, and cropland ecosystems. This study enhances our understanding of the impact of fire on the carbon cycle and climate system, and may improve the predictions of future fire changes.
Yi Xi, Chunjing Qiu, Yuan Zhang, Dan Zhu, Shushi Peng, Gustaf Hugelius, Jinfeng Chang, Elodie Salmon, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-207, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-207, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The ORCHIDEE-MICT (ORganizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic EcosystEms–aMeliorated Interactions between Carbon and Temperature) model can simulate carbon cycle and hydrology at subgrid scale but energy budgets only at grid scale. This paper assessed the implementation of a multi-tiling energy budget approach in ORCHIDEE-MICT and found that warmer surface and soil temperatures, wetter soil moisture, and more soil organic carbon across the Northern Hemisphere compared to the original version.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Sebastian Ackermann, Denise Cáceres, Martina Flörke, Helena Gerdener, Ellen Kynast, Thedini Asali Peiris, Leonie Schiebener, Maike Schumacher, and Petra Döll
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-213, 2023
Preprint under review for GMD
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Assessing water availability and water use at the global scale is challenging but essential for a range of purposes. We describe the newest version of the global hydrological model WaterGAP which has been used for numerous water resources assessments since 1996. We show the effects of new model features and model evaluations against observed streamflow and water storage anomalies as well as water abstractions statistics. The publically available model output for several variants is described.
Weiyi Tang, Bess B. Ward, Michael Beman, Laura Bristow, Darren Clark, Sarah Fawcett, Claudia Frey, François Fripiat, Gerhard J. Herndl, Mhlangabezi Mdutyana, Fabien Paulot, Xuefeng Peng, Alyson E. Santoro, Takuhei Shiozaki, Eva Sintes, Charles Stock, Xin Sun, Xianhui S. Wan, Min N. Xu, and Yao Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5039–5077, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5039-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5039-2023, 2023
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Nitrification and nitrifiers play an important role in marine nitrogen and carbon cycles by converting ammonium to nitrite and nitrate. Nitrification could affect microbial community structure, marine productivity, and the production of nitrous oxide – a powerful greenhouse gas. We introduce the newly constructed database of nitrification and nitrifiers in the marine water column and guide future research efforts in field observations and model development of nitrification.
Rebecca M. Varney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2666, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2666, 2023
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Soil carbon is the largest store of carbon on the land surface of Earth and is known to be particularly sensitive to climate change. Understanding this future response is vital to successfully meet Paris agreement targets, which rely heavily on carbon uptake by the land surface. In this study, the individual responses of soil carbon are quantified and compared amongst CMIP6 Earth system models used within the most recent IPCC report, and the role of soils within the land response is highlighted.
Samuel Scherrer, Gabriëlle De Lannoy, Zdenko Heyvaert, Michel Bechtold, Clement Albergel, Tarek S. El-Madany, and Wouter Dorigo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4087–4114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4087-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4087-2023, 2023
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We explored different options for data assimilation (DA) of the remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI). We found strong biases between LAI predicted by Noah-MP and observations. LAI DA that does not take these biases into account can induce unphysical patterns in the resulting LAI and flux estimates and leads to large changes in the climatology of root zone soil moisture. We tested two bias-correction approaches and explored alternative solutions to treating bias in LAI DA.
Benedikt Mester, Thomas Vogt, Seth Bryant, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3467–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, 2023
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In 2019, Cyclone Idai displaced more than 478 000 people in Mozambique. In our study, we use coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery to construct a counterfactual cyclone event without the effects of climate change. We show that 12 600–14 900 displacements can be attributed to sea level rise and the intensification of storm wind speeds due to global warming. Our impact attribution study is the first one on human displacement and one of very few for a low-income country.
Ryan Vella, Andrea Pozzer, Matthew Forrest, Jos Lelieveld, Thomas Hickler, and Holger Tost
Biogeosciences, 20, 4391–4412, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4391-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4391-2023, 2023
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We investigated the effect of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions from plants. ENSO events can cause a significant increase in these emissions, which have a long-term impact on the Earth's atmosphere. Persistent ENSO conditions can cause long-term changes in vegetation, resulting in even higher BVOC emissions. We link ENSO-induced emission anomalies with driving atmospheric and vegetational variables.
Johanna Teresa Malle, Giulia Mazzotti, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, and Tobias Jonas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1832, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1832, 2023
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Land surface processes are crucial for the exchange of carbon, nitrogen and energy in the earth system. Using detailed meteorological and land-use data, we found that higher resolution improved not only the model representation of snow cover, but also plant productivity and water returned to the atmosphere. Only by combining high-resolution models with high-quality input data can we accurately represent complex spatially heterogeneous processes and improve our understanding of the earth system.
Tobias Karl David Weber, Lutz Weihermüller, Attila Nemes, Michel Bechtold, Aurore Degré, Efstathios Diamantopoulos, Simone Fatichi, Vilim Filipović, Surya Gupta, Tobias L. Hohenbrink, Daniel R. Hirmas, Conrad Jackisch, Quirijn de Jong van Lier, John Koestel, Peter Lehmann, Toby R. Marthews, Budiman Minasny, Holger Pagel, Martine van der Ploeg, Simon Fiil Svane, Brigitta Szabó, Harry Vereecken, Anne Verhoef, Michael Young, Yijian Zeng, Yonggen Zhang, and Sara Bonetti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1860, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1860, 2023
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Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) are used to predicts parameters of models describing the hydraulic properties of soils. The appropriateness of these predictions critically rely on the nature of the datasets for training the PTFs as well the physical comprehensiveness of the models. This roadmap papers is addressed at PTF developers and users, and critically reflects the utility and future of PTFs. To this end, we present a manifesto aiming at a paradigm shift in PTFs research.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Simon Jones, Andy J. Wiltshire, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 20, 3767–3790, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, 2023
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This study evaluates soil carbon projections during the 21st century in CMIP6 Earth system models. In general, we find a reduced spread of changes in global soil carbon in CMIP6 compared to the previous CMIP5 generation. The reduced CMIP6 spread arises from an emergent relationship between soil carbon changes due to change in plant productivity and soil carbon changes due to changes in turnover time. We show that this relationship is consistent with false priming under transient climate change.
Joao Carlos Martins Teixeira, Chantelle Burton, Douglas I. Kelly, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Richard A. Betts, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-136, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-136, 2023
Preprint under review for BG
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Representing socio-economic impacts on fires is crucial to underpin the confidence in global fire models. Introducing these into INFERNO, reduces biases and improves the modelled burnt area (BA) trends when compared to observations. Including socio-economic factors in the representation of fires in Earth System Models is important for realistically simulating BA, quantifying trends in the recent past, and for understanding the main drivers of those at regional scales.
Kedar Otta, Hannes Müller Schmied, Simon N. Gosling, and Naota Hanasaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-215, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-215, 2023
Preprint under review for HESS
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Reservoirs play important roles in hydrology and water resources management globally and are incorporated into many Global Hydrological Models. Their simulations are, however, poorly validated due to the lack of available long-term in-situ observation data globally. Here we investigated the applicability of the latest satellite-based reservoir storage estimations in the contiguous US. We found that those products are useful for validating reservoir storage simulations when they are normalized.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1460, 2023
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Europe is regularly affected by compound events and natural hazards that occur simultaneously or with a temporal lag and are connected with disproportional impacts. Within the interdisciplinary project climXtreme (https://climxtreme.net/) we investigate the interplay of these events, their characteristics and changes, intensity, frequency and uncertainties in the past, present and future, as well as the associated impacts on different socio-economic sectors in Germany and Central Europe.
Md Safat Sikder, Jida Wang, George H. Allen, Yongwei Sheng, Dai Yamazaki, Chunqiao Song, Meng Ding, Jean-François Crétaux, and Tamlin M. Pavelsky
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3483–3511, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3483-2023, 2023
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We introduce Lake-TopoCat to reveal detailed lake hydrography information. It contains the location of lake outlets, the boundary of lake catchments, and a wide suite of attributes that depict detailed lake drainage relationships. It was constructed using lake boundaries from a global lake dataset, with the help of high-resolution hydrography data. This database may facilitate a variety of applications including water quality, agriculture and fisheries, and integrated lake–river modeling.
Shruti Nath, Lukas Gudmundsson, Jonas Schwaab, Gregory Duveiller, Steven J. De Hertog, Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Carl F. Schleussner, Wim Thiery, and Quentin Lejeune
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4283–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, 2023
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Tree cover changes play a significant role in climate mitigation and adaptation. Their regional impacts are key in informing national-level decisions and prioritising areas for conservation efforts. We present a first step towards exploring these regional impacts using a simple statistical device, i.e. emulator. The emulator only needs to train on climate model outputs representing the maximal impacts of aff-, re-, and deforestation, from which it explores plausible in-between outcomes itself.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor Burke, Andrew J. Hartley, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle Burton, Eddy Robertson, Nicola Gedney, Karina Williams, Andy Wiltshire, Richard J. Ellis, Alistair A. Sellar, and Chris D. Jones
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4249–4264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4249-2023, 2023
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This paper describes and evaluates a new modelling methodology to quantify the impacts of climate change on water, biomes and the carbon cycle. We have created a new configuration and set-up for the JULES-ES land surface model, driven by bias-corrected historical and future climate model output provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). This allows us to compare projections of the impacts of climate change across multiple impact models and multiple sectors.
Stefano Potter, Sol Cooperdock, Sander Veraverbeke, Xanthe Walker, Michelle C. Mack, Scott J. Goetz, Jennifer Baltzer, Laura Bourgeau-Chavez, Arden Burrell, Catherine Dieleman, Nancy French, Stijn Hantson, Elizabeth E. Hoy, Liza Jenkins, Jill F. Johnstone, Evan S. Kane, Susan M. Natali, James T. Randerson, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ellen Whitman, Elizabeth Wiggins, and Brendan M. Rogers
Biogeosciences, 20, 2785–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, 2023
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Here we developed a new burned-area detection algorithm between 2001–2019 across Alaska and Canada at 500 m resolution. We estimate 2.37 Mha burned annually between 2001–2019 over the domain, emitting 79.3 Tg C per year, with a mean combustion rate of 3.13 kg C m−2. We found larger-fire years were generally associated with greater mean combustion. The burned-area and combustion datasets described here can be used for local- to continental-scale applications of boreal fire science.
Alan Robock, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Joshua Coupe, Owen B. Toon, and Charles G. Bardeen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6691–6701, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6691-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6691-2023, 2023
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A nuclear war could produce a nuclear winter, with catastrophic consequences for global food supplies. Nuclear winter theory helped to end the nuclear arms race in the 1980s, but more than 10 000 nuclear weapons still exist. This means they can be used, by unstable leaders, accidently from technical malfunctions or human error, or by terrorists. Therefore, it is urgent for scientists to study these issues, broadly communicate their results, and work for the elimination of nuclear weapons.
Sebastian Ostberg, Christoph Müller, Jens Heinke, and Sibyll Schaphoff
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3375–3406, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3375-2023, 2023
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We present a new toolbox for generating input datasets for terrestrial ecosystem models from diverse and partially conflicting data sources. The toolbox documents the sources and processing of data and is designed to make inconsistencies between source datasets transparent so that users can make their own decisions on how to resolve these should they not be content with our default assumptions. As an example, we use the toolbox to create input datasets at two different spatial resolutions.
Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Stefan Lange, Chantal Hari, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Olaf Conrad, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, and Katja Frieler
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2445–2464, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2445-2023, 2023
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We present the first 1 km, daily, global climate dataset for climate impact studies. We show that the high-resolution data have a decreased bias and higher correlation with measurements from meteorological stations than coarser data. The dataset will be of value for a wide range of climate change impact studies both at global and regional level that benefit from using a consistent global dataset.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 629–667, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, 2023
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Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occur and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Fabian A. Gomez, Sang-Ki Lee, Charles A. Stock, Andrew C. Ross, Laure Resplandy, Samantha A. Siedlecki, Filippos Tagklis, and Joseph E. Salisbury
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2223–2234, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2223-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2223-2023, 2023
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We present a river chemistry and discharge dataset for 140 rivers in the United States, which integrates information from the Water Quality Database of the US Geological Survey (USGS), the USGS’s Surface-Water Monthly Statistics for the Nation, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. This dataset includes dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity, two key properties to characterize the carbonate system, as well as nutrient concentrations, such as nitrate, phosphate, and silica.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, 2023
Preprint archived
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Land cover and management changes can affect the climate and water availability. In this study we use climate model simulations of extreme global land cover changes (afforestation, deforestation) and land management changes (irrigation) to understand the effects on the global water cycle and local to continental water availability. We show that cropland expansion generally leads to higher evaporation and lower amounts of precipitation and afforestation and irrigation expansion to the opposite.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Almudena García-García, Gerhard Krinner, Moritz Langer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Jan Nitzbon, Jian Peng, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Wim Thiery, Inne Vanderkelen, and Tonghua Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 609–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, 2023
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Climate change is caused by the accumulated heat in the Earth system, with the land storing the second largest amount of this extra heat. Here, new estimates of continental heat storage are obtained, including changes in inland-water heat storage and permafrost heat storage in addition to changes in ground heat storage. We also argue that heat gains in all three components should be monitored independently of their magnitude due to heat-dependent processes affecting society and ecosystems.
Wenfu Tang, Simone Tilmes, David M. Lawrence, Fang Li, Cenlin He, Louisa K. Emmons, Rebecca R. Buchholz, and Lili Xia
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5467–5486, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5467-2023, 2023
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Globally, total wildfire burned area is projected to increase over the 21st century under scenarios without geoengineering and decrease under the two geoengineering scenarios. Geoengineering reduces fire by decreasing surface temperature and wind speed and increasing relative humidity and soil water. However, geoengineering also yields reductions in precipitation, which offset some of the fire reduction.
Petra Döll, H. M. Mehedi Hasan, Kerstin Schulze, Helena Gerdener, Lara Börger, Somayeh Shadkam, Sebastian Ackermann, Seyed-Mohammad Hosseini-Moghari, Hannes Müller Schmied, Andreas Güntner, and Jürgen Kusche
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-18, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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For the pilot region Mississippi River basin, we explored three model calibration approaches for using both streamflow and total water storage anomaly (TWSA) observations to adjust parameter sets of a global hydrological model. We developed a method for considering the observation uncertainties to determine not only optimal but also behavioral parameter sets and model output uncertainty. Model performance was improved but trade-offs between optimal fits to streamflow and TWSA may be large.
Jens Heinke, Susanne Rolinski, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2455–2475, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2455-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2455-2023, 2023
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We develop a livestock module for the global vegetation model LPJmL5.0 to simulate the impact of grazing dairy cattle on carbon and nitrogen cycles in grasslands. A novelty of the approach is that it accounts for the effect of feed quality on feed uptake and feed utilization by animals. The portioning of dietary nitrogen into milk, feces, and urine shows very good agreement with estimates obtained from animal trials.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
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Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Tobias Siegfried, Aziz Ul Haq Mujahid, Beatrice Sabine Marti, Peter Molnar, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, and Andrey Yakovlev
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-520, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-520, 2023
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Our study investigates climate change impacts on water resources in Central Asia's high-mountain regions. Using new data and a stochastic soil moisture model, we found increased precipitation and higher temperatures in the future, leading to higher water discharge despite decreasing glacier melt contributions. These findings are crucial for understanding and preparing for climate change effects on Central Asia's water resources, with further research needed on extreme weather event impacts.
Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, and Charles Stock
Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023
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Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
François Clayer, Leah Jackson-Blake, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Muhammed Shikhani, Andrew French, Tadhg Moore, James Sample, Magnus Norling, Maria-Dolores Frias, Sixto Herrera, Elvira de Eyto, Eleanor Jennings, Karsten Rinke, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1361–1381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023, 2023
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We assessed the predictive skill of forecasting tools over the next season for water discharge and lake temperature. Tools were forced with seasonal weather predictions; however, most of the prediction skill originates from legacy effects and not from seasonal weather predictions. Yet, when skills from seasonal weather predictions are present, additional skill comes from interaction effects. Skilful lake seasonal predictions require better weather predictions and realistic antecedent conditions.
Jérôme Pinti, Tim DeVries, Tommy Norin, Camila Serra-Pompei, Roland Proud, David A. Siegel, Thomas Kiørboe, Colleen M. Petrik, Ken H. Andersen, Andrew S. Brierley, and André W. Visser
Biogeosciences, 20, 997–1009, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-997-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-997-2023, 2023
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Large numbers of marine organisms such as zooplankton and fish perform daily vertical migration between the surface (at night) and the depths (in the daytime). This fascinating migration is important for the carbon cycle, as these organisms actively bring carbon to depths where it is stored away from the atmosphere for a long time. Here, we quantify the contributions of different animals to this carbon drawdown and storage and show that fish are important to the biological carbon pump.
Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Michael P. Nobis, Signe Normand, Catherine H. Graham, and Niklaus E. Zimmermann
Clim. Past, 19, 439–456, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-439-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-439-2023, 2023
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Here we present global monthly climate time series for air temperature and precipitation at 1 km resolution for the last 21 000 years. The topography at all time steps is created by combining high-resolution information on glacial cover from current and Last Glacial Maximum glacier databases with the interpolation of an ice sheet model and a coupling to mean annual temperatures from a global circulation model.
Ryan Vella, Matthew Forrest, Jos Lelieveld, and Holger Tost
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 885–906, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-885-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-885-2023, 2023
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Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) are released by vegetation and have a major impact on atmospheric chemistry and aerosol formation. Non-interacting vegetation constrains the majority of numerical models used to estimate global BVOC emissions, and thus, the effects of changing vegetation on emissions are not addressed. In this work, we replace the offline vegetation with dynamic vegetation states by linking a chemistry–climate model with a global dynamic vegetation model.
Jevgenijs Steinbuks, Yongyang Cai, Jonas Jaegermeyr, and Thomas W. Hertel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-863, 2023
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This paper applies cutting-edge numerical methods to show how uncertain climate change and technological progress affect the future utilization of the scarce world's land resources. The paper's key insight is to illustrate how much global cropland will expand when future crop yields are unknown. The more uncertain the future crop yields are, the more forest conversion will be necessary to sustain human welfare. Some of that conversion takes place even when crop yields are not actually affected.
Shuqi Lin, Donald C. Pierson, and Jorrit P. Mesman
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 35–46, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-35-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-35-2023, 2023
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The risks brought by the proliferation of algal blooms motivate the improvement of bloom forecasting tools, but algal blooms are complexly controlled and difficult to predict. Given rapid growth of monitoring data and advances in computation, machine learning offers an alternative prediction methodology. This study tested various machine learning workflows in a dimictic mesotrophic lake and gave promising predictions of the seasonal variations and the timing of algal blooms.
Minjin Lee, Charles A. Stock, John P. Dunne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-236, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-236, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Modeling global freshwater solid and nutrient loads, in both magnitude and form, is imperative for understanding emerging eutrophication problems. Such efforts, however, have been challenged by the difficulty of balancing details of freshwater biogeochemical processes with limited knowledge, input and validation datasets. Here we develop a global freshwater model that resolves intertwined algae, solid, and nutrient dynamics and provide performance assessment against measurement-based estimates.
Yao Gao, Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, Maarit Raivonen, Mika Aurela, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Elyn Humphreys, Annalea Lohila, Tingting Li, Tiina Markkanen, Olli Nevalainen, Mats B. Nilsson, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Aki Tsuruta, Huiyi Yang, and Tuula Aalto
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-229, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-229, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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We coupled a process-based peatland CH4 emission model HIMMELI with a state-of-art land surface model JULES. The performance of the coupled model was evaluated at six northern wetland sites. The coupled model is considered to be more appropriate in simulating wetland CH4 emission. In order to improve the simulated CH4 emission, the model requires better representation of the peat soil carbon and hydrologic processes in JULES and the methane production and transportation processes in HIMMELI.
Philipp Brun, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Chantal Hari, Loïc Pellissier, and Dirk Nikolaus Karger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5573–5603, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5573-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5573-2022, 2022
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Using mechanistic downscaling, we developed CHELSA-BIOCLIM+, a set of 15 biologically relevant, climate-related variables at unprecedented resolution, as a basis for environmental analyses. It includes monthly time series for 38+ years and 30-year averages for three future periods and three emission scenarios. Estimates matched well with station measurements, but few biases existed. The data allow for detailed assessments of climate-change impact on ecosystems and their services to societies.
Axel A. J. Deijns, Olivier Dewitte, Wim Thiery, Nicolas d'Oreye, Jean-Philippe Malet, and François Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3679–3700, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, 2022
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Landslides and flash floods are rainfall-induced processes that often co-occur and interact, generally very quickly. In mountainous cloud-covered environments, determining when these processes occur remains challenging. We propose a regional methodology using open-access satellite radar images that allow for the timing of landslide and flash floods events, in the contrasting landscapes of tropical Africa, with an accuracy of up to a few days. The methodology shows potential for transferability.
Kristine Karstens, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Marta Dondini, Jens Heinke, Matthias Kuhnert, Christoph Müller, Susanne Rolinski, Pete Smith, Isabelle Weindl, Hermann Lotze-Campen, and Alexander Popp
Biogeosciences, 19, 5125–5149, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5125-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5125-2022, 2022
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Soil organic carbon (SOC) has been depleted by anthropogenic land cover change and agricultural management. While SOC models often simulate detailed biochemical processes, the management decisions are still little investigated at the global scale. We estimate that soils have lost around 26 GtC relative to a counterfactual natural state in 1975. Yet, since 1975, SOC has been increasing again by 4 GtC due to a higher productivity, recycling of crop residues and manure, and no-tillage practices.
Hanqin Tian, Zihao Bian, Hao Shi, Xiaoyu Qin, Naiqing Pan, Chaoqun Lu, Shufen Pan, Francesco N. Tubiello, Jinfeng Chang, Giulia Conchedda, Junguo Liu, Nathaniel Mueller, Kazuya Nishina, Rongting Xu, Jia Yang, Liangzhi You, and Bowen Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4551–4568, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4551-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4551-2022, 2022
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Nitrogen is one of the critical nutrients for growth. Evaluating the change in nitrogen inputs due to human activity is necessary for nutrient management and pollution control. In this study, we generated a historical dataset of nitrogen input to land at the global scale. This dataset consists of nitrogen fertilizer, manure, and atmospheric deposition inputs to cropland, pasture, and rangeland at high resolution from 1860 to 2019.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 19, 4671–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, 2022
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Soil carbon is the Earth’s largest terrestrial carbon store, and the response to climate change represents one of the key uncertainties in obtaining accurate global carbon budgets required to successfully militate against climate change. The ability of climate models to simulate present-day soil carbon is therefore vital. This study assesses soil carbon simulation in the latest ensemble of models which allows key areas for future model development to be identified.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Michel Bechtold, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Luca Brocca, Luca Zappa, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4685–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, 2022
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Given the crucial impact of irrigation practices on the water cycle, this study aims at estimating irrigation through the development of an innovative data assimilation system able to ingest high-resolution Sentinel-1 radar observations into the Noah-MP land surface model. The developed methodology has important implications for global water resource management and the comprehension of human impacts on the water cycle and identifies main challenges and outlooks for future research.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1305–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, 2022
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Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation, and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occurs and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Anne Felsberg, Jean Poesen, Michel Bechtold, Matthias Vanmaercke, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3063–3082, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3063-2022, 2022
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In this study we assessed global landslide susceptibility at the coarse 36 km spatial resolution of global satellite soil moisture observations to prepare for a subsequent combination of the two. Specifically, we focus therefore on the susceptibility of hydrologically triggered landslides. We introduce ensemble techniques, common in, for example, meteorology but not yet in the landslide community, to retrieve reliable estimates of the total prediction uncertainty.
Dominik Paprotny and Matthias Mengel
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-194, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-194, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
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Population and economic growth over past decades have increased risk posed by natural hazards. The model presented here generates high-resolution maps of land use, population and assets (exposure) from 1870 to 2020 for 42 countries. It combines multiple methods with a large database of historical statistical data to approximate past anthropogenic environment of Europe. It enables attributing losses from past disasters to climate change by removing the influence of changes in exposure.
Louise Busschaert, Shannon de Roos, Wim Thiery, Dirk Raes, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3731–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, 2022
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Increasing amounts of water are used for agriculture. Therefore, we looked into how irrigation requirements will evolve under a changing climate over Europe. Our results show that, by the end of the century and under high emissions, irrigation water will increase by 30 % on average compared to the year 2000. Also, the irrigation requirement is likely to vary more from 1 year to another. However, if emissions are mitigated, these effects are reduced.
Mahdi André Nakhavali, Lina M. Mercado, Iain P. Hartley, Stephen Sitch, Fernanda V. Cunha, Raffaello di Ponzio, Laynara F. Lugli, Carlos A. Quesada, Kelly M. Andersen, Sarah E. Chadburn, Andy J. Wiltshire, Douglas B. Clark, Gyovanni Ribeiro, Lara Siebert, Anna C. M. Moraes, Jéssica Schmeisk Rosa, Rafael Assis, and José L. Camargo
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5241–5269, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5241-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5241-2022, 2022
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In tropical ecosystems, the availability of rock-derived elements such as P can be very low. Thus, without a representation of P cycling, tropical forest responses to rising atmospheric CO2 conditions in areas such as Amazonia remain highly uncertain. We introduced P dynamics and its interactions with the N and P cycles into the JULES model. Our results highlight the potential for high P limitation and therefore lower CO2 fertilization capacity in the Amazon forest with low-fertility soils.
Vili Virkki, Elina Alanärä, Miina Porkka, Lauri Ahopelto, Tom Gleeson, Chinchu Mohan, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Martina Flörke, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Naota Hanasaki, Hannes Müller Schmied, Niko Wanders, and Matti Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3315–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022, 2022
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Direct and indirect human actions have altered streamflow across the world since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a method of environmental flow envelopes (EFEs) that develops the existing global environmental flow assessments by methodological advances and better consideration of uncertainty. By assessing the violations of the EFE, we comprehensively quantify the frequency, severity, and trends of flow alteration during the past decades, illustrating anthropogenic effects on streamflow.
Malgorzata Golub, Wim Thiery, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Inne Vanderkelen, Daniel Mercado-Bettin, R. Iestyn Woolway, Luke Grant, Eleanor Jennings, Benjamin M. Kraemer, Jacob Schewe, Fang Zhao, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel, Vasiliy Y. Bogomolov, Damien Bouffard, Marianne Côté, Raoul-Marie Couture, Andrey V. Debolskiy, Bram Droppers, Gideon Gal, Mingyang Guo, Annette B. G. Janssen, Georgiy Kirillin, Robert Ladwig, Madeline Magee, Tadhg Moore, Marjorie Perroud, Sebastiano Piccolroaz, Love Raaman Vinnaa, Martin Schmid, Tom Shatwell, Victor M. Stepanenko, Zeli Tan, Bronwyn Woodward, Huaxia Yao, Rita Adrian, Mathew Allan, Orlane Anneville, Lauri Arvola, Karen Atkins, Leon Boegman, Cayelan Carey, Kyle Christianson, Elvira de Eyto, Curtis DeGasperi, Maria Grechushnikova, Josef Hejzlar, Klaus Joehnk, Ian D. Jones, Alo Laas, Eleanor B. Mackay, Ivan Mammarella, Hampus Markensten, Chris McBride, Deniz Özkundakci, Miguel Potes, Karsten Rinke, Dale Robertson, James A. Rusak, Rui Salgado, Leon van der Linden, Piet Verburg, Danielle Wain, Nicole K. Ward, Sabine Wollrab, and Galina Zdorovennova
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4597–4623, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, 2022
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Lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. To better understand how lakes are changing and to project their future behavior amidst various sources of uncertainty, simulations with a range of lake models are required. This in turn requires international coordination across different lake modelling teams worldwide. Here we present a protocol for and results from coordinated simulations of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide.
Inne Vanderkelen, Shervan Gharari, Naoki Mizukami, Martyn P. Clark, David M. Lawrence, Sean Swenson, Yadu Pokhrel, Naota Hanasaki, Ann van Griensven, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4163–4192, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4163-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4163-2022, 2022
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Human-controlled reservoirs have a large influence on the global water cycle. However, dam operations are rarely represented in Earth system models. We implement and evaluate a widely used reservoir parametrization in a global river-routing model. Using observations of individual reservoirs, the reservoir scheme outperforms the natural lake scheme. However, both schemes show a similar performance due to biases in runoff timing and magnitude when using simulated runoff.
Noah D. Smith, Eleanor J. Burke, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Inge H. J. Althuizen, Julia Boike, Casper Tai Christiansen, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Friborg, Hanna Lee, Heather Rumbold, Rachael H. Turton, Sebastian Westermann, and Sarah E. Chadburn
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3603–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, 2022
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The Arctic has large areas of small mounds that are caused by ice lifting up the soil. Snow blown by wind gathers in hollows next to these mounds, insulating them in winter. The hollows tend to be wetter, and thus the soil absorbs more heat in summer. The warm wet soil in the hollows decomposes, releasing methane. We have made a model of this, and we have tested how it behaves and whether it looks like sites in Scandinavia and Siberia. Sometimes we get more methane than a model without mounds.
Jida Wang, Blake A. Walter, Fangfang Yao, Chunqiao Song, Meng Ding, Abu Sayeed Maroof, Jingying Zhu, Chenyu Fan, Jordan M. McAlister, Safat Sikder, Yongwei Sheng, George H. Allen, Jean-François Crétaux, and Yoshihide Wada
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1869–1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1869-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1869-2022, 2022
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Improved water infrastructure data on dams and reservoirs remain to be critical to hydrologic modeling, energy planning, and environmental conservation. We present a new global dataset, GeoDAR, that includes nearly 25 000 georeferenced dam points and their associated reservoir boundaries. A majority of these features can be linked to the register of the International Commission on Large Dams, extending the potential of registered attribute information for spatially explicit applications.
Zhu Deng, Philippe Ciais, Zitely A. Tzompa-Sosa, Marielle Saunois, Chunjing Qiu, Chang Tan, Taochun Sun, Piyu Ke, Yanan Cui, Katsumasa Tanaka, Xin Lin, Rona L. Thompson, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Yuanyuan Huang, Ronny Lauerwald, Atul K. Jain, Xiaoming Xu, Ana Bastos, Stephen Sitch, Paul I. Palmer, Thomas Lauvaux, Alexandre d'Aspremont, Clément Giron, Antoine Benoit, Benjamin Poulter, Jinfeng Chang, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Steven J. Davis, Zhu Liu, Giacomo Grassi, Clément Albergel, Francesco N. Tubiello, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, and Frédéric Chevallier
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1639–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1639-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1639-2022, 2022
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In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, we proposed a method for reconciling the results of global atmospheric inversions with data from UNFCCC national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs). Here, based on a new global harmonized database that we compiled from the UNFCCC NGHGIs and a comprehensive framework presented in this study to process the results of inversions, we compared their results of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O).
Leah A. Jackson-Blake, François Clayer, Elvira de Eyto, Andrew S. French, María Dolores Frías, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Tadhg Moore, Laura Puértolas, Russell Poole, Karsten Rinke, Muhammed Shikhani, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1389–1406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, 2022
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We explore, together with stakeholders, whether seasonal forecasting of water quantity, quality, and ecology can help support water management at five case study sites, primarily in Europe. Reliable forecasting, a season in advance, has huge potential to improve decision-making. However, managers were reluctant to use the forecasts operationally. Key barriers were uncertainty and often poor historic performance. The importance of practical hands-on experience was also highlighted.
Sandy P. Harrison, Roberto Villegas-Diaz, Esmeralda Cruz-Silva, Daniel Gallagher, David Kesner, Paul Lincoln, Yicheng Shen, Luke Sweeney, Daniele Colombaroli, Adam Ali, Chéïma Barhoumi, Yves Bergeron, Tatiana Blyakharchuk, Přemysl Bobek, Richard Bradshaw, Jennifer L. Clear, Sambor Czerwiński, Anne-Laure Daniau, John Dodson, Kevin J. Edwards, Mary E. Edwards, Angelica Feurdean, David Foster, Konrad Gajewski, Mariusz Gałka, Michelle Garneau, Thomas Giesecke, Graciela Gil Romera, Martin P. Girardin, Dana Hoefer, Kangyou Huang, Jun Inoue, Eva Jamrichová, Nauris Jasiunas, Wenying Jiang, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Monika Karpińska-Kołaczek, Piotr Kołaczek, Niina Kuosmanen, Mariusz Lamentowicz, Martin Lavoie, Fang Li, Jianyong Li, Olga Lisitsyna, José Antonio López-Sáez, Reyes Luelmo-Lautenschlaeger, Gabriel Magnan, Eniko Katalin Magyari, Alekss Maksims, Katarzyna Marcisz, Elena Marinova, Jenn Marlon, Scott Mensing, Joanna Miroslaw-Grabowska, Wyatt Oswald, Sebastián Pérez-Díaz, Ramón Pérez-Obiol, Sanna Piilo, Anneli Poska, Xiaoguang Qin, Cécile C. Remy, Pierre J. H. Richard, Sakari Salonen, Naoko Sasaki, Hieke Schneider, William Shotyk, Migle Stancikaite, Dace Šteinberga, Normunds Stivrins, Hikaru Takahara, Zhihai Tan, Liva Trasune, Charles E. Umbanhowar, Minna Väliranta, Jüri Vassiljev, Xiayun Xiao, Qinghai Xu, Xin Xu, Edyta Zawisza, Yan Zhao, Zheng Zhou, and Jordan Paillard
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1109–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1109-2022, 2022
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We provide a new global data set of charcoal preserved in sediments that can be used to examine how fire regimes have changed during past millennia and to investigate what caused these changes. The individual records have been standardised, and new age models have been constructed to allow better comparison across sites. The data set contains 1681 records from 1477 sites worldwide.
Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Angela V. Gallego-Sala, Noah D. Smith, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Dan J. Charman, Julia Drewer, Colin W. Edgar, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Yao Gao, Mahdi Nakhavali, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Edward A. G. Schuur, and Sebastian Westermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1633–1657, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022, 2022
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We present a new method to include peatlands in an Earth system model (ESM). Peatlands store huge amounts of carbon that accumulates very slowly but that can be rapidly destabilised, emitting greenhouse gases. Our model captures the dynamic nature of peat by simulating the change in surface height and physical properties of the soil as carbon is added or decomposed. Thus, we model, for the first time in an ESM, peat dynamics and its threshold behaviours that can lead to destabilisation.
Aine M. Gormley-Gallagher, Sebastian Sterl, Annette L. Hirsch, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Edouard L. Davin, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-419-2022, 2022
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Our results show that agricultural management can impact the local climate and highlight the need to evaluate land management in climate models. We use regression analysis on climate simulations and observations to assess irrigation and conservation agriculture impacts on warming trends. This allowed us to distinguish between the effects of land management and large-scale climate forcings such as rising CO2 concentrations and thus gain insight into the impacts under different climate regimes.
Vera Porwollik, Susanne Rolinski, Jens Heinke, Werner von Bloh, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Christoph Müller
Biogeosciences, 19, 957–977, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-957-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-957-2022, 2022
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The study assesses impacts of grass cover crop cultivation on cropland during main-crop off-season periods applying the global vegetation model LPJmL (V.5.0-tillage-cc). Compared to simulated bare-soil fallowing practices, cover crops led to increased soil carbon content and reduced nitrogen leaching rates on the majority of global cropland. Yield responses of main crops following cover crops vary with location, duration of altered management, crop type, water regime, and tillage practice.
Martin Horwath, Benjamin D. Gutknecht, Anny Cazenave, Hindumathi Kulaiappan Palanisamy, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Frank Paul, Raymond Le Bris, Anna E. Hogg, Inès Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Petra Döll, Denise Cáceres, Hannes Müller Schmied, Johnny A. Johannessen, Jan Even Øie Nilsen, Roshin P. Raj, René Forsberg, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Valentina R. Barletta, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Per Knudsen, Ole Baltazar Andersen, Heidi Ranndal, Stine K. Rose, Christopher J. Merchant, Claire R. Macintosh, Karina von Schuckmann, Kristin Novotny, Andreas Groh, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 411–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, 2022
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Global mean sea-level change observed from 1993 to 2016 (mean rate of 3.05 mm yr−1) matches the combined effect of changes in water density (thermal expansion) and ocean mass. Ocean-mass change has been assessed through the contributions from glaciers, ice sheets, and land water storage or directly from satellite data since 2003. Our budget assessments of linear trends and monthly anomalies utilise new datasets and uncertainty characterisations developed within ESA's Climate Change Initiative.
Jianyong Ma, Stefan Olin, Peter Anthoni, Sam S. Rabin, Anita D. Bayer, Sylvia S. Nyawira, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 815–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-815-2022, 2022
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The implementation of the biological N fixation process in LPJ-GUESS in this study provides an opportunity to quantify N fixation rates between legumes and to better estimate grain legume production on a global scale. It also helps to predict and detect the potential contribution of N-fixing plants as
green manureto reducing or removing the use of N fertilizer in global agricultural systems, considering different climate conditions, management practices, and land-use change scenarios.
Albert Nkwasa, Celray James Chawanda, Jonas Jägermeyr, and Ann van Griensven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 71–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-71-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-71-2022, 2022
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We present an approach on how to incorporate crop phenology in a regional hydrological model using decision tables and global datasets of rainfed and irrigated cropland with the associated cropping calendar and management practices. Results indicate improved temporal patterns of leaf area index (LAI) and evapotranspiration (ET) simulations in comparison with remote sensing data. In addition, the improvement of the cropping season also helps to improve soil erosion estimates in cultivated areas.
Huilin Huang, Yongkang Xue, Ye Liu, Fang Li, and Gregory S. Okin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7639–7657, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7639-2021, 2021
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This study applies a fire-coupled dynamic vegetation model to quantify fire impact at monthly to annual scales. We find fire reduces grass cover by 4–8 % annually for widespread areas in south African savanna and reduces tree cover by 1 % at the periphery of tropical Congolese rainforest. The grass cover reduction peaks at the beginning of the rainy season, which quickly diminishes before the next fire season. In contrast, the reduction of tree cover is irreversible within one growing season.
Ionuț Iosifescu Enescu, David Hanimann, Dominik Haas-Artho, Marius Rüetschi, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Martin Hägeli, Rebecca Kurup Buchholz, Lucia de Espona, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, and Loïc Pellissier
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 3, 119, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-3-119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-3-119-2021, 2021
Ionuț Iosifescu Enescu, David Hanimann, Dominik Haas-Artho, Marius Rüetschi, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Martin Hägeli, Rebecca Kurup Buchholz, Lucia de Espona, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, and Loïc Pellissier
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 3, 120, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-3-120-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-3-120-2021, 2021
Lavinia Baumstark, Nico Bauer, Falk Benke, Christoph Bertram, Stephen Bi, Chen Chris Gong, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Alois Dirnaichner, Anastasis Giannousakis, Jérôme Hilaire, David Klein, Johannes Koch, Marian Leimbach, Antoine Levesque, Silvia Madeddu, Aman Malik, Anne Merfort, Leon Merfort, Adrian Odenweller, Michaja Pehl, Robert C. Pietzcker, Franziska Piontek, Sebastian Rauner, Renato Rodrigues, Marianna Rottoli, Felix Schreyer, Anselm Schultes, Bjoern Soergel, Dominika Soergel, Jessica Strefler, Falko Ueckerdt, Elmar Kriegler, and Gunnar Luderer
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6571–6603, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6571-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6571-2021, 2021
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This paper presents the new and open-source version 2.1 of the REgional Model of INvestments and Development (REMIND) with the aim of improving code documentation and transparency. REMIND is an integrated assessment model (IAM) of the energy-economic system. By answering questions like
Can the world keep global warming below 2 °C?and, if so,
Under what socio-economic conditions and applying what technological options?, it is the goal of REMIND to explore consistent transformation pathways.
Abhijeet Mishra, Florian Humpenöder, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Brent Sohngen, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Hermann Lotze-Campen, and Alexander Popp
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6467–6494, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6467-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6467-2021, 2021
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Timber plantations are an increasingly important source of roundwood production, next to harvest from natural forests. However, timber plantations are currently underrepresented in global land-use models. Here, we include timber production and plantations in the MAgPIE modeling framework. This allows one to capture the competition for land between agriculture and forestry. We show that increasing timber plantations in the coming decades partly compete with cropland for limited land resources.
Tobias Herzfeld, Jens Heinke, Susanne Rolinski, and Christoph Müller
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1037–1055, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1037-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1037-2021, 2021
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Soil organic carbon sequestration on cropland has been proposed as a climate change mitigation strategy. We simulate different agricultural management practices under climate change scenarios using a global biophysical model. We find that at the global aggregated level, agricultural management practices are not capable of enhancing total carbon storage in the soil, yet for some climate regions, we find that there is potential to enhance the carbon content in cropland soils.
Matthias Mengel, Simon Treu, Stefan Lange, and Katja Frieler
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5269–5284, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5269-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5269-2021, 2021
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To identify the impacts of historical climate change it is necessary to separate the effect of the different impact drivers. To address this, one needs to compare historical impacts to a counterfactual world with impacts that would have been without climate change. We here present an approach that produces counterfactual climate data and can be used in climate impact models to simulate counterfactual impacts. We make these data available through the ISIMIP project.
Silje Lund Sørland, Roman Brogli, Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Emmanuele Russo, Jonas Van de Walle, Bodo Ahrens, Ivonne Anders, Edoardo Bucchignani, Edouard L. Davin, Marie-Estelle Demory, Alessandro Dosio, Hendrik Feldmann, Barbara Früh, Beate Geyer, Klaus Keuler, Donghyun Lee, Delei Li, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Seung-Ki Min, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Burkhardt Rockel, Christoph Schär, Christian Steger, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5125–5154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, 2021
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We review the contribution from the CLM-Community to regional climate projections following the CORDEX framework over Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. How the model configuration, horizontal and vertical resolutions, and choice of driving data influence the model results for the five domains is assessed, with the purpose of aiding the planning and design of regional climate simulations in the future.
Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Wim Thiery, Guoyong Leng, Peter Burek, Xingcai Liu, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Manolis Grillakis, Simon Newland Gosling, Yusuke Satoh, Oldrich Rakovec, Tobias Stacke, Jinfeng Chang, Niko Wanders, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Tim Trautmann, Ganquan Mao, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Luis Samaniego, Yoshihide Wada, Vimal Mishra, Junguo Liu, Petra Döll, Fang Zhao, Anne Gädeke, Sam S. Rabin, and Florian Herz
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3843–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, 2021
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We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in 16 global water models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. We develop a standard writing style for the model equations. We conclude that even though hydrologic processes are often based on similar equations, in the end these equations have been adjusted, or the models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables.
Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Hanna Lee, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Sebastian Westermann, Vladimir Romanovsky, Scott Lamoureux, Donald A. Walker, Sarah Chadburn, Erin Trochim, Lei Cai, Jan Nitzbon, Stephan Jacobi, and Moritz Langer
The Cryosphere, 15, 2451–2471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021, 2021
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Climate warming puts infrastructure built on permafrost at risk of failure. There is a growing need for appropriate model-based risk assessments. Here we present a modelling study and show an exemplary case of how a gravel road in a cold permafrost environment in Alaska might suffer from degrading permafrost under a scenario of intense climate warming. We use this case study to discuss the broader-scale applicability of our model for simulating future Arctic infrastructure failure.
Garry D. Hayman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Chris Huntingford, Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, William Collins, Christopher Webber, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Joanna I. House, Jonathan C. Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, and Nicola Gedney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, 2021
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We model greenhouse gas emission scenarios consistent with limiting global warming to either 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify the effectiveness of methane emission control and land-based mitigation options regionally. Our results highlight the importance of reducing methane emissions for realistic emission pathways that meet the global warming targets. For land-based mitigation, growing bioenergy crops on existing agricultural land is preferable to replacing forests.
Andrew J. Wiltshire, Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris D. Jones, Peter M. Cox, Taraka Davies-Barnard, Pierre Friedlingstein, Anna B. Harper, Spencer Liddicoat, Stephen Sitch, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2161–2186, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, 2021
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Limited nitrogen availbility can restrict the growth of plants and their ability to assimilate carbon. It is important to include the impact of this process on the global land carbon cycle. This paper presents a model of the coupled land carbon and nitrogen cycle, which is included within the UK Earth System model to improve projections of climate change and impacts on ecosystems.
Yvonne Jans, Werner von Bloh, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Christoph Müller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2027–2044, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2027-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2027-2021, 2021
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Growth of and irrigation water demand on cotton may be challenged by future climate change. To analyze the global cotton production and irrigation water consumption under spatially varying present and future climatic conditions, we use the global terrestrial biosphere model LPJmL. Our simulation results suggest that the beneficial effects of elevated [CO2] on cotton yields overcompensate yield losses from direct climate change impacts, i.e., without the beneficial effect of [CO2] fertilization.
Anja Katzenberger, Jacob Schewe, Julia Pongratz, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 367–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, 2021
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All state-of-the-art global climate models that contributed to the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show a robust increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall that is even stronger than in the previous intercomparison (CMIP5). Furthermore, they show an increase in the year-to-year variability of this seasonal rainfall that crucially influences the livelihood of more than 1 billion people in India.
Bruno Ringeval, Christoph Müller, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Philippe Ciais, Christian Folberth, Wenfeng Liu, Philippe Debaeke, and Sylvain Pellerin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1639–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1639-2021, 2021
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We assess how and why global gridded crop models (GGCMs) differ in their simulation of potential yield. We build a GCCM emulator based on generic formalism and fit its parameters against aboveground biomass and yield at harvest simulated by eight GGCMs. Despite huge differences between GGCMs, we show that the calibration of a few key parameters allows the emulator to reproduce the GGCM simulations. Our simple but mechanistic model could help to improve the global simulation of potential yield.
Yuzhong Zhang, Daniel J. Jacob, Xiao Lu, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Tia R. Scarpelli, Jian-Xiong Sheng, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Jinfeng Chang, A. Anthony Bloom, Shuang Ma, John Worden, Robert J. Parker, and Hartmut Boesch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3643–3666, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3643-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3643-2021, 2021
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We use 2010–2018 satellite observations of atmospheric methane to interpret the factors controlling atmospheric methane and its accelerating increase during the period. The 2010–2018 increase in global methane emissions is driven by tropical and boreal wetlands and tropical livestock (South Asia, Africa, Brazil), with an insignificant positive trend in emissions from the fossil fuel sector. The peak methane growth rates in 2014–2015 are also contributed by low OH and high fire emissions.
Matthias Koschorreck, Yves T. Prairie, Jihyeon Kim, and Rafael Marcé
Biogeosciences, 18, 1619–1627, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1619-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1619-2021, 2021
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The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in water samples is often measured using a gas chromatograph. Depending on the chemical composition of the water, this method can produce wrong results. We quantified the possible error and how it depends on water composition and the analytical procedure. We propose a method to correct wrong results by additionally analysing alkalinity in the samples. We provide an easily usable computer code to perform the correction calculations.
Robert Ladwig, Paul C. Hanson, Hilary A. Dugan, Cayelan C. Carey, Yu Zhang, Lele Shu, Christopher J. Duffy, and Kelly M. Cobourn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1009–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1009-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1009-2021, 2021
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Using a modeling framework applied to 37 years of dissolved oxygen time series data from Lake Mendota, we identified the timing and intensity of thermal energy stored in the lake water column, the lake's resilience to mixing, and surface primary production as the most important drivers of interannual dynamics of low oxygen concentrations at the lake bottom. Due to climate change, we expect an increase in the spatial and temporal extent of low oxygen concentrations in Lake Mendota.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Denise Cáceres, Stephanie Eisner, Martina Flörke, Claudia Herbert, Christoph Niemann, Thedini Asali Peiris, Eklavyya Popat, Felix Theodor Portmann, Robert Reinecke, Maike Schumacher, Somayeh Shadkam, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Tim Trautmann, and Petra Döll
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1037–1079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1037-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1037-2021, 2021
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In a globalized world with large flows of virtual water between river basins and international responsibilities for the sustainable development of the Earth system and its inhabitants, quantitative estimates of water flows and storages and of water demand by humans are required. Global hydrological models such as WaterGAP are developed to provide this information. Here we present a thorough description, evaluation and application examples of the most recent model version, WaterGAP v2.2d.
Robert Reinecke, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Peter Burek, Martina Flörke, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Wim Thiery, Yoshihide Wada, Satoh Yusuke, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 787–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, 2021
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Billions of people rely on groundwater as an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Groundwater recharge is the primary process of regenerating groundwater resources. We find that groundwater recharge will increase in northern Europe by about 19 % and decrease by 10 % in the Amazon with 3 °C global warming. In the Mediterranean, a 2 °C warming has already lead to a reduction in recharge by 38 %. However, these model predictions are uncertain.
Angelica Feurdean, Roxana Grindean, Gabriela Florescu, Ioan Tanţău, Eva M. Niedermeyer, Andrei-Cosmin Diaconu, Simon M. Hutchinson, Anne Brigitte Nielsen, Tiberiu Sava, Andrei Panait, Mihaly Braun, and Thomas Hickler
Biogeosciences, 18, 1081–1103, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1081-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1081-2021, 2021
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Here we used multi-proxy analyses from Lake Oltina (Romania) and quantitatively examine the past 6000 years of the forest steppe in the lower Danube Plain, one of the oldest areas of human occupation in southeastern Europe. We found the greatest tree cover between 6000 and 2500 cal yr BP. Forest loss was under way by 2500 yr BP, falling to ~20 % tree cover linked to clearance for agriculture. The weak signs of forest recovery over the past 2500 years highlight recurring anthropogenic pressure.
Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle Burton, Chris Huntingford, Megan A. J. Brown, Rhys Whitley, and Ning Dong
Biogeosciences, 18, 787–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-787-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-787-2021, 2021
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Initial evidence suggests human ignitions or landscape changes caused most Amazon fires during August 2019. However, confirmation is needed that meteorological conditions did not have a substantial role. Assessing the influence of historical weather on burning in an uncertainty framework, we find that 2019 meteorological conditions alone should have resulted in much less fire than observed. We conclude socio-economic factors likely had a strong role in the high recorded 2019 fire activity.
Tingting Wang and Fubao Sun
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-10, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-10, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We produce a set of spatially explicit global GDP with consideration of two-children policy in China that presents substantial long-term changes for both historical period and for future projections under five SSPs to face the increasing demand of ScenarioMIP of high resolution for future socioeconomic development and climate change of adaption and mitigation research.
Richard Essery, Hyungjun Kim, Libo Wang, Paul Bartlett, Aaron Boone, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Eleanor Burke, Matthias Cuntz, Bertrand Decharme, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Yeugeniy Gusev, Stefan Hagemann, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Gerhard Krinner, Matthieu Lafaysse, Yves Lejeune, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Christoph Marty, Cecile B. Menard, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, John Pomeroy, Gerd Schädler, Vladimir Semenov, Tatiana Smirnova, Sean Swenson, Dmitry Turkov, Nander Wever, and Hua Yuan
The Cryosphere, 14, 4687–4698, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, 2020
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Climate models are uncertain in predicting how warming changes snow cover. This paper compares 22 snow models with the same meteorological inputs. Predicted trends agree with observations at four snow research sites: winter snow cover does not start later, but snow now melts earlier in spring than in the 1980s at two of the sites. Cold regions where snow can last until late summer are predicted to be particularly sensitive to warming because the snow then melts faster at warmer times of year.
Huilin Huang, Yongkang Xue, Fang Li, and Ye Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6029–6050, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6029-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6029-2020, 2020
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We developed a fire-coupled dynamic vegetation model that captures the spatial distribution, temporal variability, and especially the seasonal variability of fire regimes. The fire model is applied to assess the long-term fire impact on ecosystems and surface energy. We find that fire is an important determinant of the structure and function of the tropical savanna. By changing the vegetation composition and ecosystem characteristics, fire significantly alters surface energy balance.
Harriet L. Wilson, Ana I. Ayala, Ian D. Jones, Alec Rolston, Don Pierson, Elvira de Eyto, Hans-Peter Grossart, Marie-Elodie Perga, R. Iestyn Woolway, and Eleanor Jennings
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5559–5577, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5559-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5559-2020, 2020
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Lakes are often described in terms of vertical layers. The
epilimnionrefers to the warm surface layer that is homogeneous due to mixing. The depth of the epilimnion can influence air–water exchanges and the vertical distribution of biological variables. We compared various methods for defining the epilimnion layer and found large variability between methods. Certain methods may be better suited for applications such as multi-lake comparison and assessing the impact of climate change.
Lena R. Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa M. Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, 2020
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We find a biogeophysically induced global cooling with strong carbon losses in a 20 million square kilometre idealized deforestation experiment performed by nine CMIP6 Earth system models. It takes many decades for the temperature signal to emerge, with non-local effects playing an important role. Despite a consistent experimental setup, models diverge substantially in their climate responses. This study offers unprecedented insights for understanding land use change effects in CMIP6 models.
Petra Lasch-Born, Felicitas Suckow, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Martin Gutsch, Chris Kollas, Franz-Werner Badeck, Harald K. M. Bugmann, Rüdiger Grote, Cornelia Fürstenau, Marcus Lindner, and Jörg Schaber
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5311–5343, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5311-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5311-2020, 2020
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The process-based model 4C has been developed to study climate impacts on forests and is now freely available as an open-source tool. This paper provides a comprehensive description of the 4C version (v2.2) for scientific users of the model and presents an evaluation of 4C. The evaluation focused on forest growth, carbon water, and heat fluxes. We conclude that 4C is widely applicable, reliable, and ready to be released to the scientific community to use and further develop the model.
Denise Cáceres, Ben Marzeion, Jan Hendrik Malles, Benjamin Daniel Gutknecht, Hannes Müller Schmied, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4831–4851, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4831-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4831-2020, 2020
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We analysed how and to which extent changes in water storage on continents had an effect on global ocean mass over the period 1948–2016. Continents lost water to oceans at an accelerated rate, inducing sea level rise. Shrinking glaciers explain 81 % of the long-term continental water mass loss, while declining groundwater levels, mainly due to sustained groundwater pumping for irrigation, is the second major driver. This long-term decline was partly offset by the impoundment of water in dams.
Matthew J. Rowlinson, Alexandru Rap, Douglas S. Hamilton, Richard J. Pope, Stijn Hantson, Steve R. Arnold, Jed O. Kaplan, Almut Arneth, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Piers M. Forster, and Lars Nieradzik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10937–10951, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10937-2020, 2020
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Tropospheric ozone is an important greenhouse gas which contributes to anthropogenic climate change; however, the effect of human emissions is uncertain because pre-industrial ozone concentrations are not well understood. We use revised inventories of pre-industrial natural emissions to estimate the human contribution to changes in tropospheric ozone. We find that tropospheric ozone radiative forcing is up to 34 % lower when using improved pre-industrial biomass burning and vegetation emissions.
Eleanor J. Burke, Yu Zhang, and Gerhard Krinner
The Cryosphere, 14, 3155–3174, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020, 2020
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Permafrost will degrade under future climate change. This will have implications locally for the northern high-latitude regions and may well also amplify global climate change. There have been some recent improvements in the ability of earth system models to simulate the permafrost physical state, but further model developments are required. Models project the thawed volume of soil in the top 2 m of permafrost will increase by 10 %–40 % °C−1 of global mean surface air temperature increase.
Marco Cucchi, Graham P. Weedon, Alessandro Amici, Nicolas Bellouin, Stefan Lange, Hannes Müller Schmied, Hans Hersbach, and Carlo Buontempo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2097–2120, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2097-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2097-2020, 2020
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WFDE5 is a novel meteorological forcing dataset for running land surface and global hydrological models. It has been generated using the WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to surface meteorological variables from the ERA5 reanalysis. It is publicly available, along with its source code, through the C3S Climate Data Store at ECMWF. Results of the evaluations described in the paper highlight the benefits of using WFDE5 compared to both ERA5 and its predecessor WFDEI.
James A. Franke, Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, Alex C. Ruane, Jonas Jägermeyr, Abigail Snyder, Marie Dury, Pete D. Falloon, Christian Folberth, Louis François, Tobias Hank, R. Cesar Izaurralde, Ingrid Jacquemin, Curtis Jones, Michelle Li, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Meridel Phillips, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Ashwan Reddy, Karina Williams, Ziwei Wang, Florian Zabel, and Elisabeth J. Moyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3995–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3995-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3995-2020, 2020
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Improving our understanding of the impacts of climate change on crop yields will be critical for global food security in the next century. The models often used to study the how climate change may impact agriculture are complex and costly to run. In this work, we describe a set of global crop model emulators (simplified models) developed under the Agricultural Model Intercomparison Project. Crop model emulators make agricultural simulations more accessible to policy or decision makers.
Femke Lutz, Stephen Del Grosso, Stephen Ogle, Stephen Williams, Sara Minoli, Susanne Rolinski, Jens Heinke, Jetse J. Stoorvogel, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3905–3923, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3905-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3905-2020, 2020
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Previous findings have shown deviations between the LPJmL5.0-tillage model and results from meta-analyses on global estimates of tillage effects on N2O emissions. By comparing model results with observational data of four experimental sites and outputs from field-scale DayCent model simulations, we show that advancing information on agricultural management, as well as the representation of soil moisture dynamics, improves LPJmL5.0-tillage and the estimates of tillage effects on N2O emissions.
Thomas A. M. Pugh, Tim Rademacher, Sarah L. Shafer, Jörg Steinkamp, Jonathan Barichivich, Brian Beckage, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Harper, Jens Heinke, Kazuya Nishina, Anja Rammig, Hisashi Sato, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Thomas Hickler, Markus Kautz, Benjamin Quesada, Benjamin Smith, and Kirsten Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 17, 3961–3989, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, 2020
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The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle. Estimates from six contemporary models found this time to range from 12.2 to 23.5 years for the global mean for 1985–2014. Future projections do not give consistent results, but 13 model-based hypotheses are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations, which would help to reduce large current uncertainty.
Claudine Hauri, Cristina Schultz, Katherine Hedstrom, Seth Danielson, Brita Irving, Scott C. Doney, Raphael Dussin, Enrique N. Curchitser, David F. Hill, and Charles A. Stock
Biogeosciences, 17, 3837–3857, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3837-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3837-2020, 2020
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The coastal ecosystem of the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) is especially vulnerable to the effects of ocean acidification and climate change. To improve our conceptual understanding of the system, we developed a new regional biogeochemical model setup for the GOA. Model output suggests that bottom water is seasonally high in CO2 between June and January. Such extensive periods of reoccurring high CO2 may be harmful to ocean acidification-sensitive organisms.
Stijn Hantson, Douglas I. Kelley, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Sally Archibald, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Thomas Hickler, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, I. Colin Prentice, Tim Sheehan, Stephen Sitch, Lina Teckentrup, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3299–3318, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, 2020
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Global fire–vegetation models are widely used, but there has been limited evaluation of how well they represent various aspects of fire regimes. Here we perform a systematic evaluation of simulations made by nine FireMIP models in order to quantify their ability to reproduce a range of fire and vegetation benchmarks. While some FireMIP models are better at representing certain aspects of the fire regime, no model clearly outperforms all other models across the full range of variables assessed.
Kevin Sterckx, Philippe Delandmeter, Jonathan Lambrechts, Eric Deleersnijder, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-36, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-36, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This work covers multiple 3D simulations of the hydrodynamics of Lake Tanganyika, covering the inter-seasonal variations and the evolution linked to climate change. The research was done with COSMO-CLM2 data, which was used to run the SLIM 3D Lake Tanganyika model. The main results explain how this stratified lake can still maintain a certain mixing between the different layers, but how this would come to an end due to climate change.
Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Torres, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Matthew Chamberlain, James R. Christian, John P. Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Andrew Lenton, Hongmei Li, Nicole S. Lovenduski, James C. Orr, Julien Palmieri, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Charles A. Stock, Alessandro Tagliabue, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Katsuya Toyama, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020
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We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.
Ana I. Ayala, Simone Moras, and Donald C. Pierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3311–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3311-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3311-2020, 2020
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The impacts of different levels of global warming on the thermal structure of Lake Erken are assessed. We used the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) to simulate water temperature driven by meteorological scenarios supplied by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) and tested its ability at different frequencies. Then, daily ISIMIP meteorological scenarios were disaggregated and assessed for the effects of climate change on lake thermal structure.
Christopher P. O. Reyer, Ramiro Silveyra Gonzalez, Klara Dolos, Florian Hartig, Ylva Hauf, Matthias Noack, Petra Lasch-Born, Thomas Rötzer, Hans Pretzsch, Henning Meesenburg, Stefan Fleck, Markus Wagner, Andreas Bolte, Tanja G. M. Sanders, Pasi Kolari, Annikki Mäkelä, Timo Vesala, Ivan Mammarella, Jukka Pumpanen, Alessio Collalti, Carlo Trotta, Giorgio Matteucci, Ettore D'Andrea, Lenka Foltýnová, Jan Krejza, Andreas Ibrom, Kim Pilegaard, Denis Loustau, Jean-Marc Bonnefond, Paul Berbigier, Delphine Picart, Sébastien Lafont, Michael Dietze, David Cameron, Massimo Vieno, Hanqin Tian, Alicia Palacios-Orueta, Victor Cicuendez, Laura Recuero, Klaus Wiese, Matthias Büchner, Stefan Lange, Jan Volkholz, Hyungjun Kim, Joanna A. Horemans, Friedrich Bohn, Jörg Steinkamp, Alexander Chikalanov, Graham P. Weedon, Justin Sheffield, Flurin Babst, Iliusi Vega del Valle, Felicitas Suckow, Simon Martel, Mats Mahnken, Martin Gutsch, and Katja Frieler
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1295–1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1295-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1295-2020, 2020
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Process-based vegetation models are widely used to predict local and global ecosystem dynamics and climate change impacts. Due to their complexity, they require careful parameterization and evaluation to ensure that projections are accurate and reliable. The PROFOUND Database provides a wide range of empirical data to calibrate and evaluate vegetation models that simulate climate impacts at the forest stand scale to support systematic model intercomparisons and model development in Europe.
James A. Franke, Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, Alex C. Ruane, Jonas Jägermeyr, Juraj Balkovic, Philippe Ciais, Marie Dury, Pete D. Falloon, Christian Folberth, Louis François, Tobias Hank, Munir Hoffmann, R. Cesar Izaurralde, Ingrid Jacquemin, Curtis Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Marian Koch, Michelle Li, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Meridel Phillips, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Ashwan Reddy, Xuhui Wang, Karina Williams, Florian Zabel, and Elisabeth J. Moyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2315–2336, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020, 2020
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Concerns about food security under climate change motivate efforts to better understand future changes in crop yields. Crop models, which represent plant biology, are necessary tools for this purpose since they allow representing future climate, farmer choices, and new agricultural geographies. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment, under the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), is designed to evaluate and improve crop models.
Sam S. Rabin, Peter Alexander, Roslyn Henry, Peter Anthoni, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Mark Rounsevell, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 357–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020, 2020
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We modeled how agricultural performance and demand will shift as a result of climate change and population growth, and how the resulting adaptations will affect aspects of the Earth system upon which humanity depends. We found that the impacts of land use and management can have stronger impacts than climate change on some such
ecosystem services. The overall impacts are strongest in future scenarios with more severe climate change, high population growth, and/or resource-intensive lifestyles.
Hong Xuan Do, Fang Zhao, Seth Westra, Michael Leonard, Lukas Gudmundsson, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tobias Stacke, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1543–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020, 2020
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We presented a global comparison between observed and simulated trends in a flood index over the 1971–2005 period using the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata archive and six global hydrological models available through The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Streamflow simulations over 2006–2099 period robustly project high flood hazard in several regions. These high-flood-risk areas, however, are under-sampled by the current global streamflow databases.
Matthew Forrest, Holger Tost, Jos Lelieveld, and Thomas Hickler
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1285–1309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1285-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1285-2020, 2020
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We have integrated the LPJ-GUESS dynamic global vegetation model into the EMAC atmospheric chemistry-enabled GCM (general circulation model). This combined framework will enable the investigation of many land–atmosphere interactions and feedbacks with state-of-the-art simulation models. Initial results show that using the climate produced by EMAC together with LPJ-GUESS produces an acceptable representation of the global vegetation.
Angelica Feurdean, Boris Vannière, Walter Finsinger, Dan Warren, Simon C. Connor, Matthew Forrest, Johan Liakka, Andrei Panait, Christian Werner, Maja Andrič, Premysl Bobek, Vachel A. Carter, Basil Davis, Andrei-Cosmin Diaconu, Elisabeth Dietze, Ingo Feeser, Gabriela Florescu, Mariusz Gałka, Thomas Giesecke, Susanne Jahns, Eva Jamrichová, Katarzyna Kajukało, Jed Kaplan, Monika Karpińska-Kołaczek, Piotr Kołaczek, Petr Kuneš, Dimitry Kupriyanov, Mariusz Lamentowicz, Carsten Lemmen, Enikö K. Magyari, Katarzyna Marcisz, Elena Marinova, Aidin Niamir, Elena Novenko, Milena Obremska, Anna Pędziszewska, Mirjam Pfeiffer, Anneli Poska, Manfred Rösch, Michal Słowiński, Miglė Stančikaitė, Marta Szal, Joanna Święta-Musznicka, Ioan Tanţău, Martin Theuerkauf, Spassimir Tonkov, Orsolya Valkó, Jüri Vassiljev, Siim Veski, Ildiko Vincze, Agnieszka Wacnik, Julian Wiethold, and Thomas Hickler
Biogeosciences, 17, 1213–1230, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1213-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1213-2020, 2020
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Our study covers the full Holocene (the past 11 500 years) climate variability and vegetation composition and provides a test on how vegetation and climate interact to determine fire hazard. An important implication of this test is that percentage of tree cover can be used as a predictor of the probability of fire occurrence. Biomass burned is highest at ~ 45 % tree cover in temperate forests and at ~ 60–65 % tree cover in needleleaf-dominated forests.
Matias Heino, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Christoph Müller, Toshichika Iizumi, and Matti Kummu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 113–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-113-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-113-2020, 2020
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In this study, we analyse the impacts of three major climate oscillations on global crop production. Our results show that maize, rice, soybean, and wheat yields are influenced by climate oscillations to a wide extent and in several important crop-producing regions. We observe larger impacts if crops are rainfed or fully fertilized, while irrigation tends to mitigate the impacts. These results can potentially help to increase the resilience of the global food system to climate-related shocks.
Christian G. Andresen, David M. Lawrence, Cathy J. Wilson, A. David McGuire, Charles Koven, Kevin Schaefer, Elchin Jafarov, Shushi Peng, Xiaodong Chen, Isabelle Gouttevin, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Duoying Ji, Guangsheng Chen, Daniel Hayes, and Wenxin Zhang
The Cryosphere, 14, 445–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020, 2020
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Widely-used land models project near-surface drying of the terrestrial Arctic despite increases in the net water balance driven by climate change. Drying was generally associated with increases of active-layer depth and permafrost thaw in a warming climate. However, models lack important mechanisms such as thermokarst and soil subsidence that will change the hydrological regime and add to the large uncertainty in the future Arctic hydrological state and the associated permafrost carbon feedback.
Simone Moras, Ana I. Ayala, and Don C. Pierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5001–5016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5001-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5001-2019, 2019
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We used a hydrodynamic model to reconstruct daily historical water temperature of Lake Erken (Sweden) between 1961 and 2017 to demonstrate the ongoing effect of climate change on lake thermal conditions. The results show that the lake has warmed most rapidly in the last 30 years and that it is now subject to a longer and more stable stratification. The methods used here to reconstruct historical water temperature records can be easily extended to other lakes.
Carme Font, Francesco Bregoli, Vicenç Acuña, Sergi Sabater, and Rafael Marcé
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5213–5228, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5213-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5213-2019, 2019
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GLOBAL-FATE is an open-source, multiplatform, and flexible model that simulates the fate of pharmaceutical-like compounds in the global river network. The model considers the consumption of pharmaceuticals by humans, differentiates between pharmaceutical load treated in wastewater treatment plants from that directly delivered to streams and rivers, and integrates lakes and reservoirs in calculations. GLOBAL-FATE is a powerful tool for pollutant impact studies at the global scale.
Falko Ueckerdt, Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Leonie Wenz, Gunnar Luderer, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 741–763, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019, 2019
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We compute the global mean temperature increase at which the costs from climate-change damages and climate-change mitigation are minimal. This temperature is computed robustly around 2 degrees of global warming across a wide range of normative assumptions on the valuation of future welfare and inequality aversion.
Maarten C. Braakhekke, Jonathan C. Doelman, Peter Baas, Christoph Müller, Sibyll Schaphoff, Elke Stehfest, and Detlef P. van Vuuren
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 617–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-617-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-617-2019, 2019
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We developed a computer model that simulates forests plantations at global scale and how fast such forests can take up CO2 from the atmosphere. Using this new model, we performed simulations for a scenario in which a large fraction (14 %) of global croplands and pastures are either converted to planted forests or natural forests. We find that planted forests take up CO2 substantially faster than natural forests and are therefore a viable strategy for reducing climate change.
Fang Li, Maria Val Martin, Meinrat O. Andreae, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Johannes W. Kaiser, Gitta Lasslop, Chao Yue, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Erik Kluzek, Xiaohong Liu, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Daniel S. Ward, Anton Darmenov, Thomas Hickler, Charles Ichoku, Brian I. Magi, Stephen Sitch, Guido R. van der Werf, Christine Wiedinmyer, and Sam S. Rabin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12545–12567, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019, 2019
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Fire emissions are critical for atmospheric composition, climate, carbon cycle, and air quality. We provide the first global multi-model fire emission reconstructions for 1700–2012, including carbon and 33 species of trace gases and aerosols, based on the nine state-of-the-art global fire models that participated in FireMIP. We also provide information on the recent status and limitations of the model-based reconstructions and identify the main uncertainty sources in their long-term changes.
Lina Teckentrup, Sandy P. Harrison, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Joe R. Melton, Matthew Forrest, Fang Li, Chao Yue, Almut Arneth, Thomas Hickler, Stephen Sitch, and Gitta Lasslop
Biogeosciences, 16, 3883–3910, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, 2019
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This study compares simulated burned area of seven global vegetation models provided by the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) since 1900. We investigate the influence of five forcing factors: atmospheric CO2, population density, land–use change, lightning and climate.
We find that the anthropogenic factors lead to the largest spread between models. Trends due to climate are mostly not significant but climate strongly influences the inter-annual variability of burned area.
Bruno Ringeval, Marko Kvakić, Laurent Augusto, Philippe Ciais, Daniel Goll, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Christoph Müller, Thomas Nesme, Nicolas Vuichard, Xuhui Wang, and Sylvain Pellerin
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-298, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-298, 2019
Preprint withdrawn
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Crossed fertilization additions lead to the definition of nutrient interaction categories. However, the implications of such categories in terms of nutrient interaction modeling are not clear. We developed a theoretical analysis of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilization experiments, then applied it to current estimates of nutrient limitation in cropland. We found that a true co-limitation could affect up to 42 % of the global maize area when using a given formalism of nutrient interaction.
Inne Vanderkelen, Jakob Zschleischler, Lukas Gudmundsson, Klaus Keuler, Francois Rineau, Natalie Beenaerts, Jaco Vangronsveld, and Wim Thiery
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-267, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-267, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Femke Lutz, Tobias Herzfeld, Jens Heinke, Susanne Rolinski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, Jetse J. Stoorvogel, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2419–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2419-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2419-2019, 2019
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Tillage practices are under-represented in global biogeochemical models so that assessments of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and climate mitigation options are hampered. We describe the implementation of tillage modules into the model LPJmL5.0, including multiple feedbacks between soil water, nitrogen, and productivity. By comparing simulation results with observational data, we show that the model can reproduce reported tillage effects on carbon and water dynamics and crop yields.
Vera Porwollik, Susanne Rolinski, Jens Heinke, and Christoph Müller
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 823–843, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-823-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-823-2019, 2019
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This study describes the generation of a classification and the global spatially explicit mapping of six crop-specific tillage systems for around the year 2005. Tillage practices differ by the kind of equipment used, soil surface and depth affected, timing, and their purpose within the cropping systems. The identified tillage systems including a downscale algorithm of national Conservation Agriculture area values were allocated to crop-specific cropland areas with a resolution of 5 arcmin.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
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We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Tricia Light, Núria Catalán, Santiago Giralt, and Rafael Marcé
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-128, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-128, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Water reservoir sediments can store large amounts of organic. However, it is unclear what happens to this organic carbon when water reservoirs go dry due to drought, water diversion, etc. Here, we conducted laboratory incubations of reservoir sediment to determine the effect of drying on this stored organic carbon. We found that while some of the organic carbon in water reservoir sediments is released to the atmosphere as reservoirs go dry, other sediment processes can offset these emissions.
Niels Andela, Douglas C. Morton, Louis Giglio, Ronan Paugam, Yang Chen, Stijn Hantson, Guido R. van der Werf, and James T. Randerson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 529–552, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-529-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-529-2019, 2019
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Natural and human-ignited fires affect all major biomes, and satellite observations provide evidence for rapid changes in global fire activity. The Global Fire Atlas of individual fire size, duration, speed, and direction is the first global data product on individual fire behavior. Moving towards a global understanding of individual fire behavior is a critical next step in fire research, required to understand how global fire regimes are changing in response to land management and climate.
Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Mats Lannerstad, Dieter Gerten, and Wolfgang Lucht
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 205–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-205-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-205-2019, 2019
Mathias Hauser, Wim Thiery, and Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 157–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-157-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-157-2019, 2019
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We develop a method to keep the amount of water in the soil at the present-day level, using only local water sources in a global climate model. This leads to less drying over many land areas, but also decreases river runoff. We find that temperature extremes in the 21st century decrease substantially using our method. This provides a new perspective on how land water can influence regional climate and introduces land water management as potential tool for local mitigation of climate change.
Tom Shatwell, Wim Thiery, and Georgiy Kirillin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1533–1551, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019, 2019
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We used models to project future temperature and mixing in temperate lakes. Lakes will probably warm faster in winter than in summer, making ice less frequent and altering mixing. We found that the layers that form seasonally in lakes (ice, stratification) and water clarity affect how lakes accumulate heat. Seasonal changes in climate were thus important. This helps us better understand how different lake types respond to warming and which physical changes to expect in the future.
Xingcai Liu, Wenfeng Liu, Hong Yang, Qiuhong Tang, Martina Flörke, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Hannes Müller Schmied, Sebastian Ostberg, Yadu Pokhrel, Yusuke Satoh, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1245–1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019, 2019
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Human activities associated with water resource management have significantly increased in China during the past decades. This assessment helps us understand how streamflow has been affected by climate and human activities in China. Our analyses indicate that the climate impact has dominated streamflow changes in most areas, and human activities (in terms of water withdrawals) have increasingly decreased streamflow in the northern basins of China which are vulnerable to future climate change.
Julia Boike, Jan Nitzbon, Katharina Anders, Mikhail Grigoriev, Dmitry Bolshiyanov, Moritz Langer, Stephan Lange, Niko Bornemann, Anne Morgenstern, Peter Schreiber, Christian Wille, Sarah Chadburn, Isabelle Gouttevin, Eleanor Burke, and Lars Kutzbach
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 261–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, 2019
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Long-term observational data are available from the Samoylov research site in northern Siberia, where meteorological parameters, energy balance, and subsurface observations have been recorded since 1998. This paper presents the temporal data set produced between 2002 and 2017, explaining the instrumentation, calibration, processing, and data quality control. Furthermore, we present a merged dataset of the parameters, which were measured from 1998 onwards.
Matthias Forkel, Niels Andela, Sandy P. Harrison, Gitta Lasslop, Margreet van Marle, Emilio Chuvieco, Wouter Dorigo, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Fang Li, Joe Melton, Stephen Sitch, Chao Yue, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 16, 57–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, 2019
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Weather, humans, and vegetation control the occurrence of fires. In this study we find that global fire–vegetation models underestimate the strong increase of burned area with higher previous-season plant productivity in comparison to satellite-derived relationships.
Chantelle Burton, Richard Betts, Manoel Cardoso, Ted R. Feldpausch, Anna Harper, Chris D. Jones, Douglas I. Kelley, Eddy Robertson, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 179–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-179-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-179-2019, 2019
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Fire and land-use change are important disturbances within the Earth system, and their inclusion in models is critical to enable the correct simulation of vegetation cover. Here we describe developments to the land surface model JULES to represent explicit land-use change and fire and to assess the effects of each process on present day vegetation compared to observations. Using historical land-use data and the fire model INFERNO, overall model results are improved by the developments.
Gabriel Gerard Rooney, Nicole van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6357–6369, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6357-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6357-2018, 2018
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This paper uses a unique observational dataset of a tropical African lake (L. Kivu) to assess the effect of rain on lake surface temperature. Data from 4 years were categorised by daily rain amount and total net radiation to show that heavy rain may reduce the end-of-day lake temperature by about 0.3 K. This is important since lake surface temperature may influence local weather on short timescales, but the effect of rain on lake temperature has been little studied or parametrised previously.
Inne Vanderkelen, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5509–5525, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5509-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5509-2018, 2018
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Lake Victoria is the largest lake in Africa and one of the two major sources of the Nile river. The water level of Lake Victoria is determined by its water balance, consisting of lake precipitation and evaporation, inflow from rivers and lake outflow, controlled by two hydropower dams. Here, we present a water balance model for Lake Victoria, which closely represents the observed lake levels. The model results highlight the sensitivity of the lake level to human operations at the dam.
Inne Vanderkelen, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5527–5549, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5527-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5527-2018, 2018
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Lake Victoria is the second largest freshwater lake in the world and one of the major sources of the Nile River, which is controlled by two hydropower dams. In this paper we estimate the potential consequences of climate change for future water level fluctuations of Lake Victoria. Our results reveal that the operating strategies at the dam are the main controlling factors of future lake levels and that regional climate simulations used in the projections encompass large uncertainties.
Gitta Lasslop, Thomas Moeller, Donatella D'Onofrio, Stijn Hantson, and Silvia Kloster
Biogeosciences, 15, 5969–5989, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5969-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5969-2018, 2018
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We apply a multivariate model evaluation to the relationship between climate, vegetation and fire in the tropics using the JSBACH land surface model and two remote-sensing data sets, with the aim to identify the potential for model improvement. The overestimation of tree cover for low precipitation and a very strong relationship between tree cover and burned area indicates opportunities in the improvement of drought effects and the impact of fire on tree cover or the adaptation of trees to fire.
Martin Rückamp, Ulrike Falk, Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, and Angelika Humbert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1169–1189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1169-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1169-2018, 2018
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Sea-level rise associated with changing climate is expected to pose a major challenge for societies. Based on the efforts of COP21 to limit global warming to 2.0 °C by the end of the 21st century (Paris Agreement), we simulate the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea-level change. The projected sea-level rise ranges between 21–38 mm by 2100
and 36–85 mm by 2300. Our results indicate that uncertainties in the projections stem from the underlying climate data.
Manuel Schmid, Todd A. Ehlers, Christian Werner, Thomas Hickler, and Juan-Pablo Fuentes-Espoz
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 859–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-859-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-859-2018, 2018
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We present a numerical modeling study into the interactions between transient climate and vegetation cover with hillslope and fluvial processes. We use a state-of-the-art landscape evolution model library (Landlab) and design model experiments to investigate the effect of climate change and the associated changes in surface vegetation cover on main basin metrics. This paper is a companion paper to Part 1 (this journal), which investigates the effect of climate change on surface vegetation cover.
Christian Werner, Manuel Schmid, Todd A. Ehlers, Juan Pablo Fuentes-Espoz, Jörg Steinkamp, Matthew Forrest, Johan Liakka, Antonio Maldonado, and Thomas Hickler
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 829–858, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-829-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-829-2018, 2018
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Vegetation is crucial for modulating rates of denudation and landscape evolution, and is directly influenced by climate conditions and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Using transient climate data and a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model we simulate the vegetation composition and cover from the Last Glacial Maximum to present along the Coastal Cordillera of Chile. In part 2 we assess the landscape response to transient climate and vegetation cover using a landscape evolution model.
Ronny Meier, Edouard L. Davin, Quentin Lejeune, Mathias Hauser, Yan Li, Brecht Martens, Natalie M. Schultz, Shannon Sterling, and Wim Thiery
Biogeosciences, 15, 4731–4757, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4731-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4731-2018, 2018
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Deforestation not only releases carbon dioxide to the atmosphere but also affects local climatic conditions by altering energy fluxes at the land surface and thereby the local temperature. Here, we evaluate the local impact of deforestation in a widely used land surface model. We find that the model reproduces the daytime warming effect of deforestation well. On the other hand, the warmer temperatures observed during night in forests are not present in this model.
Werner von Bloh, Sibyll Schaphoff, Christoph Müller, Susanne Rolinski, Katharina Waha, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2789–2812, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2789-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2789-2018, 2018
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The dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle are of central importance for Earth system science. Nutrient limitations, especially from nitrogen, are important constraints on vegetation growth and the terrestrial carbon cycle. We extended the well-established global vegetation, hydrology, and crop model LPJmL with a nitrogen cycle. We find significant improvement in global patterns of crop productivity. Regional differences in crop productivity can now be largely reproduced by the model.
Derek T. Robinson, Alan Di Vittorio, Peter Alexander, Almut Arneth, C. Michael Barton, Daniel G. Brown, Albert Kettner, Carsten Lemmen, Brian C. O'Neill, Marco Janssen, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Sam S. Rabin, Mark Rounsevell, James P. Syvitski, Isaac Ullah, and Peter H. Verburg
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 895–914, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-895-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-895-2018, 2018
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Understanding the complexity behind the rapid use of Earth’s resources requires modelling approaches that couple human and natural systems. We propose a framework that comprises the configuration, frequency of interaction, and coordination of communication between models along with eight lessons as guidelines to increase the success of coupled human–natural systems modelling initiatives. We also suggest a way to expedite model coupling and increase the longevity and interoperability of models.
Ronja Reese, Torsten Albrecht, Matthias Mengel, Xylar Asay-Davis, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 12, 1969–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, 2018
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Floating ice shelves surround most of Antarctica and ocean-driven melting at their bases is a major reason for its current sea-level contribution. We developed a simple model based on a box model approach that captures the vertical ocean circulation generally present in ice-shelf cavities and allows simulating melt rates in accordance with physical processes beneath the ice. We test the model for all Antarctic ice shelves and find that melt rates and melt patterns agree well with observations.
Sebastian Ostberg, Jacob Schewe, Katelin Childers, and Katja Frieler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 479–496, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-479-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-479-2018, 2018
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It has been shown that regional temperature and precipitation changes in future climate change scenarios often scale quasi-linearly with global mean temperature change (∆GMT). We show that an important consequence of these physical climate changes, namely changes in agricultural crop yields, can also be described in terms of ∆GMT to a large extent. This makes it possible to efficiently estimate future crop yield changes for different climate change scenarios without need for complex models.
Derek P. Tittensor, Tyler D. Eddy, Heike K. Lotze, Eric D. Galbraith, William Cheung, Manuel Barange, Julia L. Blanchard, Laurent Bopp, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Matthias Büchner, Catherine Bulman, David A. Carozza, Villy Christensen, Marta Coll, John P. Dunne, Jose A. Fernandes, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Alistair J. Hobday, Veronika Huber, Simon Jennings, Miranda Jones, Patrick Lehodey, Jason S. Link, Steve Mackinson, Olivier Maury, Susa Niiranen, Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos, Tilla Roy, Jacob Schewe, Yunne-Jai Shin, Tiago Silva, Charles A. Stock, Jeroen Steenbeek, Philip J. Underwood, Jan Volkholz, James R. Watson, and Nicola D. Walker
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1421–1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1421-2018, 2018
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Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial for strengthening future projections. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. We describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project, which brings together the marine ecosystem modelling community to inform long-term projections of marine ecosystems.
Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, Anja Rammig, Kirsten Thonicke, Hester Biemans, Matthias Forkel, Dieter Gerten, Jens Heinke, Jonas Jägermeyr, Jürgen Knauer, Fanny Langerwisch, Wolfgang Lucht, Christoph Müller, Susanne Rolinski, and Katharina Waha
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1343–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018, 2018
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Here we provide a comprehensive model description of a global terrestrial biosphere model, named LPJmL4, incorporating the carbon and water cycle and the quantification of agricultural production. The model allows for the consistent and joint quantification of climate and land use change impacts on the biosphere. The model represents the key ecosystem functions, but also the influence of humans on the biosphere. It comes with an evaluation paper to demonstrate the credibility of LPJmL4.
Sibyll Schaphoff, Matthias Forkel, Christoph Müller, Jürgen Knauer, Werner von Bloh, Dieter Gerten, Jonas Jägermeyr, Wolfgang Lucht, Anja Rammig, Kirsten Thonicke, and Katharina Waha
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1377–1403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1377-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1377-2018, 2018
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Here we provide a comprehensive evaluation of the now launched version 4.0 of the LPJmL biosphere, water, and agricultural model. The article is the second part to a comprehensive description of the LPJmL4 model. We have evaluated the model against various datasets of satellite observations, agricultural statistics, and in situ measurements by applying a range of metrics. We are able to show that the LPJmL4 model simulates many parameters and relations reasonably.
Stefan Liersch, Julia Tecklenburg, Henning Rust, Andreas Dobler, Madlen Fischer, Tim Kruschke, Hagen Koch, and Fred Fokko Hattermann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2163–2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2163-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2163-2018, 2018
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Application-oriented regional impact studies require accurate simulations of future climate variables and water availability. We analyse the quality of global and regional climate projections and discuss potentials of correction methods that partly overcome this quality issue. The model ensemble used in this study projects increasing average annual discharges and a shift in seasonal patterns, with decreasing discharges in June and July and increasing discharges from August to November.
Philippe Delandmeter, Jonathan Lambrechts, Vincent Legat, Valentin Vallaeys, Jaya Naithani, Wim Thiery, Jean-François Remacle, and Eric Deleersnijder
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1161–1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1161-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1161-2018, 2018
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The discontinuous Galerkin (DG) finite element method is well suited for the modelling of three-dimensional flows exhibiting strong density gradients. Here, a vertical adaptive mesh method is developed for DG finite element methods and implemented into SLIM 3D. This technique increases drastically the accuracy of simulations including strong stratification, without affecting the simulation cost. SLIM 3D is then used to simulate the thermocline oscillations of Lake Tanganyika.
Wenbin Liu, Fubao Sun, Wee Ho Lim, Jie Zhang, Hong Wang, Hideo Shiogama, and Yuqing Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 267–283, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-267-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-267-2018, 2018
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This study is the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought at 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds using CMIP5 models. By keeping the warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, the risks of drought and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease at global and regional scales. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.
Juan Fernando Salazar, Juan Camilo Villegas, Angela María Rendón, Estiven Rodríguez, Isabel Hoyos, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, and Germán Poveda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1735–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1735-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1735-2018, 2018
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River flow regimes are being altered by global change. Understanding the mechanisms behind such alterations is crucial for hydrological prediction. We introduce a novel interpretation of river flow metrics (scaling) that allows any river basin to be classified as regulated or unregulated, and to identify transitions between these states. We propose the
forest reservoirhypothesis to explain how forest loss can force the Amazonian river basins from regulated to unregulated states.
Julia Boike, Inge Juszak, Stephan Lange, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Pier Paul Overduin, Kurt Roth, Olaf Ippisch, Niko Bornemann, Lielle Stern, Isabelle Gouttevin, Ernst Hauber, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 355–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-355-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-355-2018, 2018
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A 20-year data record from the Bayelva site at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, is presented on meteorology, energy balance components, surface and subsurface observations. This paper presents the data set, instrumentation, calibration, processing and data quality control. The data show that mean annual, summer and winter soil temperature data from shallow to deeper depths have been warming over the period of record, indicating the degradation and loss of permafrost at this site.
Sam S. Rabin, Daniel S. Ward, Sergey L. Malyshev, Brian I. Magi, Elena Shevliakova, and Stephen W. Pacala
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 815–842, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-815-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-815-2018, 2018
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This paper describes a new fire model that for the first time simulates how fire is used on cropland and pasture in the modern day, as imposed using a recently developed dataset. A non-agricultural fire module is fit algorithmically against non-agricultural burned area. Fitting improves performance and the general global pattern of fire is represented, but some gaps remain. The novel separation of agricultural burning from other fire may necessitate new design thinking in the future.
Mahdi Nakhavali, Pierre Friedlingstein, Ronny Lauerwald, Jing Tang, Sarah Chadburn, Marta Camino-Serrano, Bertrand Guenet, Anna Harper, David Walmsley, Matthias Peichl, and Bert Gielen
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 593–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-593-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-593-2018, 2018
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In order to provide a better understanding of the Earth's carbon cycle, we need a model that represents the whole continuum from atmosphere to land and into the ocean. In this study we include in JULES a representation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) processes. Our results show that the model is able to reproduce the DOC concentration and controlling processes, including leaching to the riverine system, which is fundamental for integrating the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem.
Giuliana Turi, Michael Alexander, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Antonietta Capotondi, James Scott, Charles Stock, John Dunne, Jasmin John, and Michael Jacox
Ocean Sci., 14, 69–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-69-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-69-2018, 2018
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A high-resolution global model was used to study the influence of El Niño/La Niña events on the California Current System (CalCS). The mean surface oxygen (O2) response extends well offshore, where the pH response occurs within ~ 100 km of the coast. The surface O2 (pH) is primarily driven by temperature (upwelling) changes. Below 100 m, anomalously low O2 and low pH occurred during La Niña events near the coast, potentially stressing the ecosystem, but there are large variations between events.
Susanne Rolinski, Christoph Müller, Jens Heinke, Isabelle Weindl, Anne Biewald, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Alberte Bondeau, Eltje R. Boons-Prins, Alexander F. Bouwman, Peter A. Leffelaar, Johnny A. te Roller, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 429–451, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-429-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-429-2018, 2018
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One-third of the global land area is covered with grasslands which are grazed by or mowed for livestock feed. These areas contribute significantly to the carbon capture from the atmosphere when managed sensibly. To assess the effect of this management, we included different options of grazing and mowing into the global model LPJmL 3.6. We found in polar regions even low grazing pressure leads to soil carbon loss whereas in temperate regions up to 1.4 livestock units per hectare can be sustained.
Yan-Fang Sang, Fubao Sun, Vijay P. Singh, Ping Xie, and Jian Sun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 757–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-757-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-757-2018, 2018
Tobias Geiger, Katja Frieler, and David N. Bresch
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 185–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-185-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-185-2018, 2018
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Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose a major risk to societies worldwide but very limited data exist on their socioeconomic impacts. Here, we apply a common wind field model to comprehensively and consistently estimate the number of people and the sum of assets exposed by all TCs between 1950 and 2015. This information is crucial to assess changes in societal vulnerabilites, to calibrate TC damage functions, and to make risk data more accessible to non-experts and stakeholders.
Wenbin Liu, Fubao Sun, Yanzhong Li, Guoqing Zhang, Yan-Fang Sang, Wee Ho Lim, Jiahong Liu, Hong Wang, and Peng Bai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 351–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-351-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-351-2018, 2018
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The dynamics of basin-scale water budgets over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are not well understood nowadays due to the lack of hydro-climatic observations. In this study, we investigate seasonal cycles and trends of water budget components (e.g. precipitation P, evapotranspiration ET and runoff Q) in 18 TP river basins during the period 1982–2011 through the use of multi-source datasets (e.g. in situ observations, satellite retrievals, reanalysis outputs and land surface model simulations).
Liesbet Jacobs, Olivier Dewitte, Jean Poesen, John Sekajugo, Adriano Nobile, Mauro Rossi, Wim Thiery, and Matthieu Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 105–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-105-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-105-2018, 2018
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While country-specific, continental and global susceptibility maps are increasingly available, local and regional susceptibility studies remain rare in remote and data-poor settings. Here, we provide a landslide susceptibility assessment for the inhabited region of the Rwenzori Mountains. We find that higher spatial resolutions do not necessarily lead to better models and that models built for local case studies perform better than aggregated susceptibility assessments on the regional scale.
Fei Lun, Junguo Liu, Philippe Ciais, Thomas Nesme, Jinfeng Chang, Rong Wang, Daniel Goll, Jordi Sardans, Josep Peñuelas, and Michael Obersteiner
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1-2018, 2018
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We quantified in detail the P budgets in agricultural systems and PUE on global, regional, and national scales from 2002 to 2010. Globally, half of the total P inputs into agricultural systems accumulated in agricultural soils, with the rest lost to bodies of water. There are great differences in P budgets and PUE in agricultural systems on global, regional, and national scales. International trade played a significant role in P redistribution and P in fertilizer and food among countries.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Jacob Schewe, Lila Warszawski, Fang Zhao, Louise Chini, Sebastien Denvil, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, Kate Halladay, George Hurtt, Matthias Mengel, Daisuke Murakami, Sebastian Ostberg, Alexander Popp, Riccardo Riva, Miodrag Stevanovic, Tatsuo Suzuki, Jan Volkholz, Eleanor Burke, Philippe Ciais, Kristie Ebi, Tyler D. Eddy, Joshua Elliott, Eric Galbraith, Simon N. Gosling, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Jochen Hinkel, Christian Hof, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Valentina Krysanova, Rafael Marcé, Hannes Müller Schmied, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Don Pierson, Derek P. Tittensor, Robert Vautard, Michelle van Vliet, Matthias F. Biber, Richard A. Betts, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Delphine Deryng, Steve Frolking, Chris D. Jones, Heike K. Lotze, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Ritvik Sahajpal, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, and Yoshiki Yamagata
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, 2017
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This paper describes the simulation scenario design for the next phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is designed to facilitate a contribution to the scientific basis for the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming. ISIMIP brings together over 80 climate-impact models, covering impacts on hydrology, biomes, forests, heat-related mortality, permafrost, tropical cyclones, fisheries, agiculture, energy, and coastal infrastructure.
Sarah E. Chadburn, Gerhard Krinner, Philipp Porada, Annett Bartsch, Christian Beer, Luca Belelli Marchesini, Julia Boike, Altug Ekici, Bo Elberling, Thomas Friborg, Gustaf Hugelius, Margareta Johansson, Peter Kuhry, Lars Kutzbach, Moritz Langer, Magnus Lund, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Shushi Peng, Ko Van Huissteden, Tao Wang, Sebastian Westermann, Dan Zhu, and Eleanor J. Burke
Biogeosciences, 14, 5143–5169, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017, 2017
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Earth system models (ESMs) are our main tools for understanding future climate. The Arctic is important for the future carbon cycle, particularly due to the large carbon stocks in permafrost. We evaluated the performance of the land component of three major ESMs at Arctic tundra sites, focusing on the fluxes and stocks of carbon.
We show that the next steps for model improvement are to better represent vegetation dynamics, to include mosses and to improve below-ground carbon cycle processes.
Tingju Zhu, Petra Döll, Hannes Müller Schmied, Claudia Ringler, and Mark W. Rosegrant
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-216, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-216, 2017
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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The global hydrological model IGHM was developed to simulate water availability over global land areas month by month. The simulated water availability is for analyzing irrigation water supply and crop production in a global water and food projections model, IMPACT. Water availability simulated by another global hydrological model, WGHM, was used to determine parameter values in IGHM. This paper describes the structure of IGHM, the method of its parameter determination, and its performance.
Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Juan F. Salazar, and Juan Camilo Villegas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-550, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-550, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Global changes in forest cover have been related to major scientific and social challenges. There are important uncertainties about the potential effects of ongoing forest loss on water cycle. Here we analysis the division of rainfall in evaporation and runoff (water in rivers) and the presence or absence of forest in 22 large regions. We found that in less forested regions, evaporation dominates the division while in more forested regions rainfall is equally divided into evaporation and runoff.
Margreet J. E. van Marle, Silvia Kloster, Brian I. Magi, Jennifer R. Marlon, Anne-Laure Daniau, Robert D. Field, Almut Arneth, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Natalie M. Kehrwald, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stéphane Mangeon, Chao Yue, Johannes W. Kaiser, and Guido R. van der Werf
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3329–3357, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3329-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3329-2017, 2017
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Fire emission estimates are a key input dataset for climate models. We have merged satellite information with proxy datasets and fire models to reconstruct fire emissions since 1750 AD. Our dataset indicates that, on a global scale, fire emissions were relatively constant over time. Since roughly 1950, declining emissions from savannas were approximately balanced by increased emissions from tropical deforestation zones.
Luis Samaniego, Rohini Kumar, Stephan Thober, Oldrich Rakovec, Matthias Zink, Niko Wanders, Stephanie Eisner, Hannes Müller Schmied, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Sabine Attinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4323–4346, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4323-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4323-2017, 2017
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We inspect the state-of-the-art of several land surface (LSMs) and hydrologic models (HMs) and show that most do not have consistent and realistic parameter fields for land surface geophysical properties. We propose to use the multiscale parameter regionalization (MPR) technique to solve, at least partly, the scaling problem in LSMs/HMs. A general model protocol is presented to describe how MPR can be applied to a specific model.
Yoshihide Wada, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Ad de Roo, Paul A. Dirmeyer, James S. Famiglietti, Naota Hanasaki, Megan Konar, Junguo Liu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Taikan Oki, Yadu Pokhrel, Murugesu Sivapalan, Tara J. Troy, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Tim van Emmerik, Marjolein H. J. Van Huijgevoort, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Charles J. Vörösmarty, Niko Wanders, and Howard Wheater
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4169–4193, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4169-2017, 2017
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Rapidly increasing population and human activities have altered terrestrial water fluxes on an unprecedented scale. Awareness of potential water scarcity led to first global water resource assessments; however, few hydrological models considered the interaction between terrestrial water fluxes and human activities. Our contribution highlights the importance of human activities transforming the Earth's water cycle, and how hydrological models can include such influences in an integrated manner.
Chris Huntingford, Hui Yang, Anna Harper, Peter M. Cox, Nicola Gedney, Eleanor J. Burke, Jason A. Lowe, Garry Hayman, William J. Collins, Stephen M. Smith, and Edward Comyn-Platt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 617–626, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017, 2017
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Recent UNFCCC climate meetings have placed much emphasis on constraining global warming to remain below 2 °C. The 2015 Paris meeting went further and gave an aspiration to fulfil a 1.5 °C threshold. We provide a flexible set of algebraic global temperature profiles that stabilise to either target. This will potentially allow the climate research community to estimate local climatic implications for these temperature profiles, along with emissions trajectories to fulfil them.
Jacob Schewe and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 495–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-495-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-495-2017, 2017
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Monsoon systems have undergone abrupt changes in past climates, and theoretical considerations show that threshold behavior can follow from the internal dynamics of monsoons. So far, however, the possibility of abrupt changes has not been explored for modern monsoon systems. We analyze state-of-the-art climate model simulations and show that some models project abrupt changes in Sahel rainfall in response to a dynamic shift in the West African monsoon under 21st century climate change.
Alexander Nauels, Malte Meinshausen, Matthias Mengel, Katja Lorbacher, and Tom M. L. Wigley
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2495–2524, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2495-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2495-2017, 2017
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The MAGICC sea level model projects global sea level rise by emulating process-based estimates for all major sea level drivers and applying them to available climate scenarios and their extensions to 2300. The MAGICC sea level projections are well within the ranges of the fifth IPCC assessment report. Due to its efficient structure, this emulator is a powerful tool for exploring sea level uncertainties and investigating sea level responses for a wide range of climate mitigation pathways.
Eleanor J. Burke, Altug Ekici, Ye Huang, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris Huntingford, Philippe Ciais, Pierre Friedlingstein, Shushi Peng, and Gerhard Krinner
Biogeosciences, 14, 3051–3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, 2017
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There are large reserves of carbon within the permafrost which might be released to the atmosphere under global warming. Our models suggest this release may cause an additional global temperature increase of 0.005 to 0.2°C by the year 2100 and 0.01 to 0.34°C by the year 2300. Under climate mitigation scenarios this is between 1.5 and 9 % (by 2100) and between 6 and 16 % (by 2300) of the global mean temperature change. There is a large uncertainty associated with these results.
Annelie Säurich, Bärbel Tiemeyer, Axel Don, Michel Bechtold, Wulf Amelung, and Annette Freibauer
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-127, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Drained organic soils are hotspots of CO2 emissions. Due to mineralisation and mixing with mineral soil, the soil organic carbon (SOC) content of large areas of former peatlands decreased drastically. We evaluated potential CO2 emissions from such soils and true peat by aerobic incubation. Surprisingly, CO2 emissions increased in magnitude and variability with stronger disturbance and lower SOC content. This indicates that mixing peat with mineral soil is not a promising mitigation option.
Hong Wang, Fubao Sun, Jun Xia, and Wenbin Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1929–1945, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1929-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1929-2017, 2017
Tingting Wang, Fubao Sun, Hong Wang, Wenbin Liu, and Hao Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-151, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-151, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Accurate estimation of annual evapotranspiration (ET) in humid catchments remains a huge challenge and there is no well accepted explanation so far. We compare the estimated ET and ET + ΔS against ETwb with assumption that annual ΔS is zero, and find that much improvement has been made in ET + S. This provides an acceptable explanation for the poorly annual ET estimation and highlight that the annual ΔS shouldn't be taken as zero in water balance equation in humid catchments.
Sam S. Rabin, Joe R. Melton, Gitta Lasslop, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Jed O. Kaplan, Fang Li, Stéphane Mangeon, Daniel S. Ward, Chao Yue, Vivek K. Arora, Thomas Hickler, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Lars Nieradzik, Allan Spessa, Gerd A. Folberth, Tim Sheehan, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Stephen Sitch, Sandy Harrison, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1175–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, 2017
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Global vegetation models are important tools for understanding how the Earth system will change in the future, and fire is a critical process to include. A number of different methods have been developed to represent vegetation burning. This paper describes the protocol for the first systematic comparison of global fire models, which will allow the community to explore various drivers and evaluate what mechanisms are important for improving performance. It also includes equations for all models.
Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, and Altug Ekici
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 959–975, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-959-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-959-2017, 2017
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There is a large amount of relatively inert organic carbon locked into permafrost soils. In a warming climate the permafrost will thaw and this organic carbon will become vulnerable to decomposition. This process is not typically included within Earth system models (ESMs). This paper describes the development of a vertically resolved soil organic carbon decomposition model which, in the future, can be included within the UKESM to quantify the response of the climate to permafrost carbon loss.
Tyler W. Davis, I. Colin Prentice, Benjamin D. Stocker, Rebecca T. Thomas, Rhys J. Whitley, Han Wang, Bradley J. Evans, Angela V. Gallego-Sala, Martin T. Sykes, and Wolfgang Cramer
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 689–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-689-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-689-2017, 2017
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This research presents a comprehensive description for calculating necessary, but sparsely observed, factors related to Earth's surface energy and water budgets relevant in, but not limited to, the study of ecosystems. We present the equations, including their derivations and assumptions, as well as example indicators relevant to plant-available moisture. The robustness of these relatively simple equations provides a tool to be used across broad fields of scientific research.
Christian Folberth, Joshua Elliott, Christoph Müller, Juraj Balkovic, James Chryssanthacopoulos, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Curtis D. Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Wenfeng Liu, Ashwan Reddy, Erwin Schmid, Rastislav Skalský, Hong Yang, Almut Arneth, Philippe Ciais, Delphine Deryng, Peter J. Lawrence, Stefan Olin, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Alex C. Ruane, and Xuhui Wang
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-527, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Global crop models differ in numerous aspects such as algorithms, parameterization, input data, and management assumptions. This study compares five global crop model frameworks, all based on the same field-scale model, to identify differences induced by the latter three. Results indicate that foremost nutrient supply, soil handling, and crop management induce substantial differences in crop yield estimates whereas crop cultivars primarily result in scaling of yield levels.
Wenbin Liu, Fubao Sun, Yanzhong Li, Guoqing Zhang, Yan-Fang Sang, Jiahong Liu, Hong Wang, and Peng Bai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-624, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-624, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Hannes Müller Schmied, Linda Adam, Stephanie Eisner, Gabriel Fink, Martina Flörke, Hyungjun Kim, Taikan Oki, Felix Theodor Portmann, Robert Reinecke, Claudia Riedel, Qi Song, Jing Zhang, and Petra Döll
Proc. IAHS, 374, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-53-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-53-2016, 2016
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We analyzed simulated water balance components on global and continental scale as impacted by the uncertainty of climate forcing datasets. On average, around 62 % of precipitation on global land area evapotranspires and 38 % is discharge to oceans and inland sinks. Human water use increased during the 20th century by a factor of 5. Uncertainty of precipitation variable has most impact on model results, followed by shortwave downward radiation. Model calibration reduces this uncertainty.
Alex C. Ruane, Claas Teichmann, Nigel W. Arnell, Timothy R. Carter, Kristie L. Ebi, Katja Frieler, Clare M. Goodess, Bruce Hewitson, Radley Horton, R. Sari Kovats, Heike K. Lotze, Linda O. Mearns, Antonio Navarra, Dennis S. Ojima, Keywan Riahi, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Matthias Themessl, and Katharine Vincent
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3493–3515, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3493-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3493-2016, 2016
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The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation, and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for CMIP6 was created to improve communications between communities that apply climate model output for societal benefit and the climate model centers. This manuscript describes the establishment of the VIACS Advisory Board as a coherent avenue for communication utilizing leading networks, experts, and programs; results of initial interactions during the development of CMIP6; and its potential next activities.
Lei Cai, Vladimir A. Alexeev, Christopher D. Arp, Benjamin M. Jones, Anna Liljedahl, and Anne Gädeke
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2016-31, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2016-31, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
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This study produced a high-resolution dynamical downscaling data set for the Alaskan North Slope and surrounding areas. It helps to resolve the problem of the sparse observation over this region, where routinely and accurately measuring climatic variables is extremely difficult. This data set boosts up multiple research projects that explore the various climatic impacts over the Alaskan North Slope of the past and the future.
Wenli Wang, Annette Rinke, John C. Moore, Duoying Ji, Xuefeng Cui, Shushi Peng, David M. Lawrence, A. David McGuire, Eleanor J. Burke, Xiaodong Chen, Bertrand Decharme, Charles Koven, Andrew MacDougall, Kazuyuki Saito, Wenxin Zhang, Ramdane Alkama, Theodore J. Bohn, Philippe Ciais, Christine Delire, Isabelle Gouttevin, Tomohiro Hajima, Gerhard Krinner, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Paul A. Miller, Benjamin Smith, Tetsuo Sueyoshi, and Artem B. Sherstiukov
The Cryosphere, 10, 1721–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, 2016
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The winter snow insulation is a key process for air–soil temperature coupling and is relevant for permafrost simulations. Differences in simulated air–soil temperature relationships and their modulation by climate conditions are found to be related to the snow model physics. Generally, models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes.
Fred Fokko Hattermann, Shaochun Huang, Olaf Burghoff, Peter Hoffmann, and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1617–1622, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1617-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1617-2016, 2016
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We report that a considerable increase in flood-related losses can be expected in Germany in a future warmer climate. The general significance of the study is supported by the fact that the outcome of an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) was used as a climate driver for a hydrological model considering more than 3000 river basins in Germany.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Linda Adam, Stephanie Eisner, Gabriel Fink, Martina Flörke, Hyungjun Kim, Taikan Oki, Felix Theodor Portmann, Robert Reinecke, Claudia Riedel, Qi Song, Jing Zhang, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2877–2898, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2877-2016, 2016
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The assessment of water balance components of the global land surface by means of hydrological models is affected by large uncertainties, in particular related to meteorological forcing. We analyze the effect of five state-of-the-art forcings on water balance components at different spatial and temporal scales modeled with WaterGAP. Furthermore, the dominant effect (precipitation/human alteration) for long-term changes in river discharge is assessed.
Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Mario Herrero, Petr Havlik, Matteo Campioli, Xianzhou Zhang, Yongfei Bai, Nicolas Viovy, Joanna Joiner, Xuhui Wang, Shushi Peng, Chao Yue, Shilong Piao, Tao Wang, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Jean-Francois Soussana, Anna Peregon, Natalya Kosykh, and Nina Mironycheva-Tokareva
Biogeosciences, 13, 3757–3776, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3757-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3757-2016, 2016
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We derived the global maps of grassland management intensity of 1901–2012, including the minimum area of managed grassland with fraction of mown/grazed part. These maps, to our knowledge for the first time, provide global, time-dependent information for drawing up global estimates of management impact on biomass production and yields and for global vegetation models to enable simulations of carbon stocks and GHG budgets beyond simple tuning of grassland productivities to account for management.
Stijn Hantson, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo Artaxo, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew Forrest, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Hickler, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, 2016
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Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of past and future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes. A large variety of models exist, and it is unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. In this paper we summarize the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP.
Lei Cai, Vladimir A. Alexeev, Christopher D. Arp, Benjamin M. Jones, Anna Liljedahl, and Anne Gädeke
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-87, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
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This paper introduces the development process of a data set that specifically made for climatic impacts research over the Alaskan North Slope. This data set can offset to some extent the sparseness of observation on spatial and temporal scales, retrieving high-resolution climatic backgrounds that enable various studies in the fields of climatology, hydrology, ecology, etc.
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Tabea K. Lissner, Erich M. Fischer, Jan Wohland, Mahé Perrette, Antonius Golly, Joeri Rogelj, Katelin Childers, Jacob Schewe, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel, William Hare, and Michiel Schaeffer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 327–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-327-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-327-2016, 2016
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We present for the first time a comprehensive assessment of key climate impacts for the policy relevant warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We report substantial impact differences in intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, regional water availability and agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. The increase in climate impacts is particularly pronounced in tropical and sub-tropical regions.
K. Frieler, M. Mengel, and A. Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 203–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-203-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-203-2016, 2016
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Sea level will continue to rise for centuries. We investigate the option of delaying sea-level rise by pumping ocean water onto Antarctica. Due to wave propagation ice is discharged much faster back into the ocean than expected from pure advection. A millennium-scale storage of > 80 % of the additional ice requires a distance of > 700 km from the coastline. The pumping energy required to elevate ocean water to mitigate a sea-level rise of 3 mm yr−1 exceeds 7 % of current global primary energy supply.
W. Wang, A. Rinke, J. C. Moore, X. Cui, D. Ji, Q. Li, N. Zhang, C. Wang, S. Zhang, D. M. Lawrence, A. D. McGuire, W. Zhang, C. Delire, C. Koven, K. Saito, A. MacDougall, E. Burke, and B. Decharme
The Cryosphere, 10, 287–306, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016, 2016
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We use a model-ensemble approach for simulating permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau. We identify the uncertainties across models (state-of-the-art land surface models) and across methods (most commonly used methods to define permafrost).
We differentiate between uncertainties stemming from climatic driving data or from physical process parameterization, and show how these uncertainties vary seasonally and inter-annually, and how estimates are subject to the definition of permafrost used.
We differentiate between uncertainties stemming from climatic driving data or from physical process parameterization, and show how these uncertainties vary seasonally and inter-annually, and how estimates are subject to the definition of permafrost used.
A. V. Gallego-Sala, D. J. Charman, S. P. Harrison, G. Li, and I. C. Prentice
Clim. Past, 12, 129–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-129-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-129-2016, 2016
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It has become a well-established paradigm that blanket bog landscapes in the British Isles are a result of forest clearance by early human populations. We provide a novel test of this hypothesis using results from bioclimatic modelling driven by cimate reconstructions compared with a database of peat initiation dates. Both results show similar patterns of peat initiation over time and space. This suggests that climate was the main driver of blanket bog inception and not human disturbance.
C. Du, F. Sun, J. Yu, X. Liu, and Y. Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 393–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-393-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-393-2016, 2016
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We define the equivalent precipitation to include local precipitation, inflow water and soil water storage change as the water supply in the Budyko framework. With the newly defined water supply, the Budyko curve can successfully describe the relationship between the evapotranspiration ratio and the aridity index at both annual and monthly timescales in unclosed basins. We develop a new Fu-type Budyko equation with two non-dimensional parameters (ω and λ) based on the deviation of Fu's equation.
S. Peng, P. Ciais, G. Krinner, T. Wang, I. Gouttevin, A. D. McGuire, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, B. Decharme, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, C. Delire, T. Hajima, D. Ji, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. A. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
The Cryosphere, 10, 179–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, 2016
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Soil temperature change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. Using nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, a large spread of soil temperature trends across the models. Air temperature and longwave downward radiation are the main drivers of soil temperature trends. Based on an emerging observation constraint method, the total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprised between 39 ± 14 × 103 and 75 ± 14 × 103 km2 yr−1 from 1960 to 2000.
M. Forrest, J. T. Eronen, T. Utescher, G. Knorr, C. Stepanek, G. Lohmann, and T. Hickler
Clim. Past, 11, 1701–1732, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1701-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1701-2015, 2015
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We simulated Late Miocene (11-7 Million years ago) vegetation using two plausible CO2 concentrations: 280ppm CO2 and 450ppm CO2. We compared the simulated vegetation to existing plant fossil data for the whole Northern Hemisphere. Our results suggest that during the Late Miocene the CO2 levels have been relatively low, or that other factors that are not included in the models maintained the seasonal temperate forests and open vegetation.
S. S. Rabin, B. I. Magi, E. Shevliakova, and S. W. Pacala
Biogeosciences, 12, 6591–6604, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6591-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6591-2015, 2015
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People worldwide use fire to manage agriculture, but often also suppress fire in the landscape surrounding their fields. Here, we estimate the net result of these effects of cropland and pasture on fire at a regional, monthly level. Pasture is shown, for the first time, to contribute strongly to global patterns of burning. Our results could be used to improve representations of burning in global vegetation and climate models, improving our understanding of how people affect the Earth system.
S. Miyazaki, K. Saito, J. Mori, T. Yamazaki, T. Ise, H. Arakida, T. Hajima, Y. Iijima, H. Machiya, T. Sueyoshi, H. Yabuki, E. J. Burke, M. Hosaka, K. Ichii, H. Ikawa, A. Ito, A. Kotani, Y. Matsuura, M. Niwano, T. Nitta, R. O'ishi, T. Ohta, H. Park, T. Sasai, A. Sato, H. Sato, A. Sugimoto, R. Suzuki, K. Tanaka, S. Yamaguchi, and K. Yoshimura
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2841-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2841-2015, 2015
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The paper provides an overall outlook and the Stage 1 experiment (site simulations) protocol of GTMIP, an open model intercomparison project for terrestrial Arctic, conducted as an activity of the Japan-funded Arctic Climate Change Research Project (GRENE-TEA). Models are driven by 34-year data created with the GRENE-TEA observations at four sites in Finland, Siberia and Alaska, and evaluated for physico-ecological key processes: energy budgets, snow, permafrost, phenology, and carbon budget.
S. E. Chadburn, E. J. Burke, R. L. H. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. M. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
The Cryosphere, 9, 1505–1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, 2015
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In this paper we use a global land-surface model to study the dynamics of Arctic permafrost. We examine the impact of new and improved processes in the model, namely soil depth and resolution, organic soils, moss and the representation of snow. These improvements make the simulated soil temperatures and thaw depth significantly more realistic. Simulations under future climate scenarios show that permafrost thaws more slowly in the new model version, but still a large amount is lost by 2100.
M. H. Vermeulen, B. J. Kruijt, T. Hickler, and P. Kabat
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 485–503, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-485-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-485-2015, 2015
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We compared a process-based ecosystem model (LPJ-GUESS) with EC measurements to test whether observed interannual variability (IAV) in carbon and water fluxes can be reproduced because it is important to understand the driving mechanisms of IAV. We show that the model's mechanistic process representation for photosynthesis at low temperatures and during drought could be improved, but other process representations are still lacking in order to fully reproduce the observed IAV.
M. A. Rawlins, A. D. McGuire, J. S. Kimball, P. Dass, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, C. Delire, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, S. Peng, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, I. Gouttevin, T. Hajima, D. Ji, G. Krinner, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
Biogeosciences, 12, 4385–4405, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, 2015
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We used outputs from nine models to better understand land-atmosphere CO2 exchanges across Northern Eurasia over the period 1960-1990. Model estimates were assessed against independent ground and satellite measurements. We find that the models show a weakening of the CO2 sink over time; the models tend to overestimate respiration, causing an underestimate in NEP; the model range in regional NEP is twice the multimodel mean. Residence time for soil carbon decreased, amid a gain in carbon storage.
A. Ekici, S. Chadburn, N. Chaudhary, L. H. Hajdu, A. Marmy, S. Peng, J. Boike, E. Burke, A. D. Friend, C. Hauck, G. Krinner, M. Langer, P. A. Miller, and C. Beer
The Cryosphere, 9, 1343–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1343-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1343-2015, 2015
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This paper compares the performance of different land models in estimating soil thermal regimes at distinct cold region landscape types. Comparing models with different processes reveal the importance of surface insulation (snow/moss layer) and soil internal processes (heat/water transfer). The importance of model processes also depend on site conditions such as high/low snow cover, dry/wet soil types.
K. Frieler, A. Levermann, J. Elliott, J. Heinke, A. Arneth, M. F. P. Bierkens, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, D. Deryng, P. Döll, P. Falloon, B. Fekete, C. Folberth, A. D. Friend, C. Gellhorn, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, M. Lomas, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, K. Neumann, T. Oki, R. Pavlick, A. C. Ruane, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, T. Stacke, E. Stehfest, Q. Tang, D. Wisser, V. Huber, F. Piontek, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, H. Lotze-Campen, and H. J. Schellnhuber
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015
J. Jägermeyr, D. Gerten, J. Heinke, S. Schaphoff, M. Kummu, and W. Lucht
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3073–3091, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3073-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3073-2015, 2015
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We present a process-based simulation of global irrigation systems for the world’s major crop types. This study advances the global quantification of irrigation systems while providing a framework for assessing potential future transitions in these systems, a prerequisite for refined simulation of crop yields under climate change. We reveal for many river basins the potential for sizeable water savings and related increases in water productivity through irrigation improvements.
R. Aguilera, R. Marcé, and S. Sabater
Biogeosciences, 12, 4085–4098, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4085-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4085-2015, 2015
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Nitrate and dissolved phosphate concentration time series (1980--2011) from 50 sampling stations across a large Mediterranean river basin were analyzed using dynamic factor analysis and complementary methods in order to disentangle the role of hydrology, land-use practices, and global climatic phenomena on nitrate and phosphate patterns, with the aim of understanding how the different aspects of global change affected nutrient dynamics in the basin.
T. J. Bohn, J. R. Melton, A. Ito, T. Kleinen, R. Spahni, B. D. Stocker, B. Zhang, X. Zhu, R. Schroeder, M. V. Glagolev, S. Maksyutov, V. Brovkin, G. Chen, S. N. Denisov, A. V. Eliseev, A. Gallego-Sala, K. C. McDonald, M.A. Rawlins, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, Q. Zhuang, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 12, 3321–3349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, 2015
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We evaluated 21 forward models and 5 inversions over western Siberia in terms of CH4 emissions and simulated wetland areas and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux data set, several wetland maps, and two satellite inundation products. In addition to assembling a definitive collection of methane emissions estimates for the region, we were able to identify the types of wetland maps and model features necessary for accurate simulations of high-latitude wetlands.
S. Chadburn, E. Burke, R. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1493–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, 2015
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Permafrost, ground that is frozen for 2 or more years, is found extensively in the Arctic. It stores large quantities of carbon, which may be released under climate warming, so it is important to include it in climate models. Here we improve the representation of permafrost in a climate model land-surface scheme, both in the numerical representation of soil and snow, and by adding the effects of organic soils and moss. Site simulations show significantly improved soil temperature and thaw depth.
J. Elliott, C. Müller, D. Deryng, J. Chryssanthacopoulos, K. J. Boote, M. Büchner, I. Foster, M. Glotter, J. Heinke, T. Iizumi, R. C. Izaurralde, N. D. Mueller, D. K. Ray, C. Rosenzweig, A. C. Ruane, and J. Sheffield
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-261-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-261-2015, 2015
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We present and describe the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) project, an ongoing international effort to 1) validate global models of crop productivity, 2) improve models through detailed analysis of processes, and 3) assess the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security. We present analysis of data inputs for the project, detailed protocols for conducting and evaluating simulation outputs, and example results.
I. V. Gorodetskaya, S. Kneifel, M. Maahn, K. Van Tricht, W. Thiery, J. H. Schween, A. Mangold, S. Crewell, and N. P. M. Van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 9, 285–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-285-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-285-2015, 2015
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Our paper presents a new cloud-precipitation-meteorological observatory established in the escarpment zone of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. The site is characterised by bimodal cloud occurrence (clear sky or overcast) with liquid-containing clouds occurring 20% of the cloudy periods. Local surface mass balance strongly depends on rare intense snowfall events. A substantial part of the accumulated snow is removed by surface and drifting snow sublimation and wind-driven snow erosion.
T. Vetter, S. Huang, V. Aich, T. Yang, X. Wang, V. Krysanova, and F. Hattermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 17–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-17-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-17-2015, 2015
C. A. Stock, J. P. Dunne, and J. G. John
Biogeosciences, 11, 7125–7135, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7125-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7125-2014, 2014
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Climate change projections suggest large regional ocean productivity shifts for mesozooplankton, an important food resource for fish, which are amplified relative to changes in phytoplankton production. Amplification is attributed to changes in planktonic food web dynamics under global warming. Results have implications for regional economies and food security. Improved understanding of the response of plankton food webs to climate change is essential to refine amplification estimates.
D. Wårlind, B. Smith, T. Hickler, and A. Arneth
Biogeosciences, 11, 6131–6146, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6131-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6131-2014, 2014
H. Müller Schmied, S. Eisner, D. Franz, M. Wattenbach, F. T. Portmann, M. Flörke, and P. Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3511–3538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3511-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3511-2014, 2014
Y. Wang, M. L. Roderick, Y. Shen, and F. Sun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3499–3509, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3499-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3499-2014, 2014
M. Bechtold, B. Tiemeyer, A. Laggner, T. Leppelt, E. Frahm, and S. Belting
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3319–3339, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3319-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3319-2014, 2014
A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann, S. Nowicki, J. L. Fastook, K. Frieler, R. Greve, H. H. Hellmer, M. A. Martin, M. Meinshausen, M. Mengel, A. J. Payne, D. Pollard, T. Sato, R. Timmermann, W. L. Wang, and R. A. Bindschadler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 271–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, 2014
V. Aich, B. Koné, F. F. Hattermann, and E. N. Müller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-5171-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-5171-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
C. Buendía, S. Arens, T. Hickler, S. I. Higgins, P. Porada, and A. Kleidon
Biogeosciences, 11, 3661–3683, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3661-2014, 2014
L. Batlle-Bayer, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, C. Müller, and J. van Minnen
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-585-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-585-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
M. L. Roderick, F. Sun, W. H. Lim, and G. D. Farquhar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1575–1589, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1575-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1575-2014, 2014
B. Smith, D. Wårlind, A. Arneth, T. Hickler, P. Leadley, J. Siltberg, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 11, 2027–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, 2014
V. Aich, S. Liersch, T. Vetter, S. Huang, J. Tecklenburg, P. Hoffmann, H. Koch, S. Fournet, V. Krysanova, E. N. Müller, and F. F. Hattermann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1305–1321, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1305-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1305-2014, 2014
F. Li, B. Bond-Lamberty, and S. Levis
Biogeosciences, 11, 1345–1360, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1345-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1345-2014, 2014
W. Thiery, A. Martynov, F. Darchambeau, J.-P. Descy, P.-D. Plisnier, L. Sushama, and N. P. M. van Lipzig
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 317–337, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-317-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-317-2014, 2014
J. F. Chang, N. Viovy, N. Vuichard, P. Ciais, T. Wang, A. Cozic, R. Lardy, A.-I. Graux, K. Klumpp, R. Martin, and J.-F. Soussana
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 2165–2181, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2165-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2165-2013, 2013
P. Dass, C. Müller, V. Brovkin, and W. Cramer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 409–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-409-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-409-2013, 2013
J. Heinke, S. Ostberg, S. Schaphoff, K. Frieler, C. Müller, D. Gerten, M. Meinshausen, and W. Lucht
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1689–1703, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1689-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1689-2013, 2013
J. C. S. Davie, P. D. Falloon, R. Kahana, R. Dankers, R. Betts, F. T. Portmann, D. Wisser, D. B. Clark, A. Ito, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, B. Fekete, Z. Tessler, Y. Wada, X. Liu, Q. Tang, S. Hagemann, T. Stacke, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, S. N. Gosling, W. Franssen, and N. Arnell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 359–374, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-359-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-359-2013, 2013
S. Hempel, K. Frieler, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, and F. Piontek
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 219–236, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-219-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-219-2013, 2013
I. H. Taylor, E. Burke, L. McColl, P. D. Falloon, G. R. Harris, and D. McNeall
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2339–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2339-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2339-2013, 2013
S. Hagemann, C. Chen, D. B. Clark, S. Folwell, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Hanasaki, J. Heinke, F. Ludwig, F. Voss, and A. J. Wiltshire
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 129–144, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013, 2013
F. Li, S. Levis, and D. S. Ward
Biogeosciences, 10, 2293–2314, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2293-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2293-2013, 2013
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
D. J. Charman, D. W. Beilman, M. Blaauw, R. K. Booth, S. Brewer, F. M. Chambers, J. A. Christen, A. Gallego-Sala, S. P. Harrison, P. D. M. Hughes, S. T. Jackson, A. Korhola, D. Mauquoy, F. J. G. Mitchell, I. C. Prentice, M. van der Linden, F. De Vleeschouwer, Z. C. Yu, J. Alm, I. E. Bauer, Y. M. C. Corish, M. Garneau, V. Hohl, Y. Huang, E. Karofeld, G. Le Roux, J. Loisel, R. Moschen, J. E. Nichols, T. M. Nieminen, G. M. MacDonald, N. R. Phadtare, N. Rausch, Ü. Sillasoo, G. T. Swindles, E.-S. Tuittila, L. Ukonmaanaho, M. Väliranta, S. van Bellen, B. van Geel, D. H. Vitt, and Y. Zhao
Biogeosciences, 10, 929–944, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-929-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-929-2013, 2013
M. Perrette, F. Landerer, R. Riva, K. Frieler, and M. Meinshausen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 11–29, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-11-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-11-2013, 2013
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cfr (v2024.1.26): a Python package for climate field reconstruction
NEWTS1.0: Numerical model of coastal Erosion by Waves and Transgressive Scarps
Evaluation of isoprene emissions from the coupled model SURFEX–MEGANv2.1
A comprehensive Earth system model (AWI-ESM2.1) with interactive icebergs: effects on surface and deep-ocean characteristics
The regional climate–chemistry–ecology coupling model RegCM-Chem (v4.6)–YIBs (v1.0): development and application
An overview of cloud–radiation denial experiments for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1
The computational and energy cost of simulation and storage for climate science: lessons from CMIP6
Subgrid-scale variability of cloud ice in the ICON-AES 1.3.00
INFERNO-peat v1.0.0: a representation of northern high-latitude peat fires in the JULES-INFERNO global fire model
The 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled land data assimilation system for E3SM version 2
Continental-scale bias-corrected climate and hydrological projections for Australia
G6-1.5K-SAI: a new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment integrating recent advances in solar radiation modification studies
Modeling the effects of tropospheric ozone on the growth and yield of global staple crops with DSSAT v4.8.0
A one-dimensional urban flow model with an eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF) scheme and refined turbulent transport (MLUCM v3.0)
DCMIP2016: the tropical cyclone test case
Interactions between atmospheric composition and climate change – progress in understanding and future opportunities from AerChemMIP, PDRMIP, and RFMIP
CD-type discretization for sea ice dynamics in FESOM version 2
CSDMS Data Components: data–model integration tools for Earth surface processes modeling
A generic algorithm to automatically classify urban fabric according to the local climate zone system: implementation in GeoClimate 0.0.1 and application to French cities
Modelling water isotopologues (1H2H16O, 1H217O) in the coupled numerical climate model iLOVECLIM (version 1.1.5)
Accurate assessment of land–atmosphere coupling in climate models requires high-frequency data output
Towards variance-conserving reconstructions of climate indices with Gaussian process regression in an embedding space
A diatom extension to the cGEnIE Earth system model – EcoGEnIE 1.1
Carbon isotopes in the marine biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1-REcoM3
Flux coupling approach on an exchange grid for the IOW Earth System Model (version 1.04.00) of the Baltic Sea region
Using EUREC4A/ATOMIC field campaign data to improve trade wind regimes in the Community Atmosphere Model
Multivariate adjustment of drizzle bias using machine learning in European climate projections
New model ensemble reveals how forcing uncertainty and model structure alter climate simulated across CMIP generations of the Community Earth System Model
Quantifying wildfire drivers and predictability in boreal peatlands using a two-step error-correcting machine learning framework in TeFire v1.0
Benchmarking GOCART-2G in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)
Energy-conserving physics for nonhydrostatic dynamics in mass coordinate models
Evaluation and optimisation of the soil carbon turnover routine in the MONICA model (version 3.3.1)
Assessing the sensitivity of aerosol mass budget and effective radiative forcing to horizontal grid spacing in E3SMv1 using a regional refinement approach
Towards the definition of a solar forcing dataset for CMIP7
ibicus: a new open-source Python package and comprehensive interface for statistical bias adjustment and evaluation in climate modelling (v1.0.1)
Disentangling the hydrological and hydraulic controls on streamflow variability in Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) V2 – a case study in the Pantanal region
Constraining the carbon cycle in JULES-ES-1.0
The utility of simulated ocean chlorophyll observations: a case study with the Chlorophyll Observation Simulator Package (version 1) in CESMv2.2
GeoPDNN 1.0: a semi-supervised deep learning neural network using pseudo-labels for three-dimensional shallow strata modelling and uncertainty analysis in urban areas from borehole data
The prototype NOAA Aerosol Reanalysis version 1.0: description of the modeling system and its evaluation
Performance and process-based evaluation of the BARPA-R Australasian regional climate model version 1
Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System version 2.0: model description and Indian monsoon simulations
Exploring the ocean mesoscale at reduced computational cost with FESOM 2.5: efficient modeling strategies applied to the Southern Ocean
Implementing detailed nucleation predictions in the Earth system model EC-Earth3.3.4: sulfuric acid-ammonia nucleation
Truly conserving with conservative remapping methods
High-resolution downscaling of CMIP6 Earth system and global climate models using deep learning for Iberia
Earth system modeling on modular supercomputing architecture: coupled atmosphere–ocean simulations with ICON 2.6.6-rc
Global Downscaled Projections for Climate Impacts Research (GDPCIR): preserving quantile trends for modeling future climate impacts
Xiaohui Zhong, Xing Yu, and Hao Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3667–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3667-2024, 2024
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In order to forecast localized warm-sector rainfall in the south China region, numerical weather prediction models are being run with finer grid spacing. The conventional convection parameterization (CP) performs poorly in the gray zone, necessitating the development of a scale-aware scheme. We propose a machine learning (ML) model to replace the scale-aware CP scheme. Evaluation against the original CP scheme has shown that the ML-based CP scheme can provide accurate and reliable predictions.
Taufiq Hassan, Kai Zhang, Jianfeng Li, Balwinder Singh, Shixuan Zhang, Hailong Wang, and Po-Lun Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3507–3532, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3507-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3507-2024, 2024
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Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are an essential part of global aerosol models. Significant errors can exist from the loss of emission heterogeneity. We introduced an emission treatment that significantly improved aerosol emission heterogeneity in high-resolution model simulations, with improvements in simulated aerosol surface concentrations. The emission treatment will provide a more accurate representation of aerosol emissions and their effects on climate.
Feng Zhu, Julien Emile-Geay, Gregory J. Hakim, Dominique Guillot, Deborah Khider, Robert Tardif, and Walter A. Perkins
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3409–3431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3409-2024, 2024
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Climate field reconstruction encompasses methods that estimate the evolution of climate in space and time based on natural archives. It is useful to investigate climate variations and validate climate models, but its implementation and use can be difficult for non-experts. This paper introduces a user-friendly Python package called cfr to make these methods more accessible, thanks to the computational and visualization tools that facilitate efficient and reproducible research on past climates.
Rose V. Palermo, J. Taylor Perron, Jason M. Soderblom, Samuel P. D. Birch, Alexander G. Hayes, and Andrew D. Ashton
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3433–3445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3433-2024, 2024
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Models of rocky coastal erosion help us understand the controls on coastal morphology and evolution. In this paper, we present a simplified model of coastline erosion driven by either uniform erosion where coastline erosion is constant or wave-driven erosion where coastline erosion is a function of the wave power. This model can be used to evaluate how coastline changes reflect climate, sea-level history, material properties, and the relative influence of different erosional processes.
Safae Oumami, Joaquim Arteta, Vincent Guidard, Pierre Tulet, and Paul David Hamer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3385–3408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3385-2024, 2024
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In this paper, we coupled the SURFEX and MEGAN models. The aim of this coupling is to improve the estimation of biogenic fluxes by using the SURFEX canopy environment model. The coupled model results were validated and several sensitivity tests were performed. The coupled-model total annual isoprene flux is 442 Tg; this value is within the range of other isoprene estimates reported. The ultimate aim of this coupling is to predict the impact of climate change on biogenic emissions.
Lars Ackermann, Thomas Rackow, Kai Himstedt, Paul Gierz, Gregor Knorr, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3279–3301, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024, 2024
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We present long-term simulations with interactive icebergs in the Southern Ocean. By melting, icebergs reduce the temperature and salinity of the surrounding ocean. In our simulations, we find that this cooling effect of iceberg melting is not limited to the surface ocean but also reaches the deep ocean and propagates northward into all ocean basins. Additionally, the formation of deep-water masses in the Southern Ocean is enhanced.
Nanhong Xie, Tijian Wang, Xiaodong Xie, Xu Yue, Filippo Giorgi, Qian Zhang, Danyang Ma, Rong Song, Beiyao Xu, Shu Li, Bingliang Zhuang, Mengmeng Li, Min Xie, Natalya Andreeva Kilifarska, Georgi Gadzhev, and Reneta Dimitrova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3259–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3259-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3259-2024, 2024
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For the first time, we coupled a regional climate chemistry model, RegCM-Chem, with a dynamic vegetation model, YIBs, to create a regional climate–chemistry–ecology model, RegCM-Chem–YIBs. We applied it to simulate climatic, chemical, and ecological parameters in East Asia and fully validated it on a variety of observational data. Results show that RegCM-Chem–YIBs model is a valuable tool for studying the terrestrial carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change on a regional scale.
Bryce E. Harrop, Jian Lu, L. Ruby Leung, William K. M. Lau, Kyu-Myong Kim, Brian Medeiros, Brian J. Soden, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Bosong Zhang, and Balwinder Singh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3111–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3111-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3111-2024, 2024
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Seven new experimental setups designed to interfere with cloud radiative heating have been added to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). These experiments include both those that test the mean impact of cloud radiative heating and those examining its covariance with circulations. This paper documents the code changes and steps needed to run these experiments. Results corroborate prior findings for how cloud radiative heating impacts circulations and rainfall patterns.
Mario C. Acosta, Sergi Palomas, Stella V. Paronuzzi Ticco, Gladys Utrera, Joachim Biercamp, Pierre-Antoine Bretonniere, Reinhard Budich, Miguel Castrillo, Arnaud Caubel, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Italo Epicoco, Uwe Fladrich, Sylvie Joussaume, Alok Kumar Gupta, Bryan Lawrence, Philippe Le Sager, Grenville Lister, Marie-Pierre Moine, Jean-Christophe Rioual, Sophie Valcke, Niki Zadeh, and Venkatramani Balaji
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3081–3098, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3081-2024, 2024
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We present a collection of performance metrics gathered during the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), a worldwide initiative to study climate change. We analyse the metrics that resulted from collaboration efforts among many partners and models and describe our findings to demonstrate the utility of our study for the scientific community. The research contributes to understanding climate modelling performance on the current high-performance computing (HPC) architectures.
Sabine Doktorowski, Jan Kretzschmar, Johannes Quaas, Marc Salzmann, and Odran Sourdeval
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3099–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3099-2024, 2024
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Especially over the midlatitudes, precipitation is mainly formed via the ice phase. In this study we focus on the initial snow formation process in the ICON-AES, the aggregation process. We use a stochastical approach for the aggregation parameterization and investigate the influence in the ICON-AES. Therefore, a distribution function of cloud ice is created, which is evaluated with satellite data. The new approach leads to cloud ice loss and an improvement in the process rate bias.
Katie R. Blackford, Matthew Kasoar, Chantelle Burton, Eleanor Burke, Iain Colin Prentice, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3063–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, 2024
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Peatlands are globally important stores of carbon which are being increasingly threatened by wildfires with knock-on effects on the climate system. Here we introduce a novel peat fire parameterization in the northern high latitudes to the INFERNO global fire model. Representing peat fires increases annual burnt area across the high latitudes, alongside improvements in how we capture year-to-year variation in burning and emissions.
Pengfei Shi, L. Ruby Leung, Bin Wang, Kai Zhang, Samson M. Hagos, and Shixuan Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3025–3040, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3025-2024, 2024
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Improving climate predictions have profound socio-economic impacts. This study introduces a new weakly coupled land data assimilation (WCLDA) system for a coupled climate model. We demonstrate improved simulation of soil moisture and temperature in many global regions and throughout the soil layers. Furthermore, significant improvements are also found in reproducing the time evolution of the 2012 US Midwest drought. The WCLDA system provides the groundwork for future predictability studies.
Justin Peter, Elisabeth Vogel, Wendy Sharples, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Louise Wilson, Pandora Hope, Andrew Dowdy, Greg Kociuba, Sri Srikanthan, Vi Co Duong, Jake Roussis, Vjekoslav Matic, Zaved Khan, Alison Oke, Margot Turner, Stuart Baron-Hay, Fiona Johnson, Raj Mehrotra, Ashish Sharma, Marcus Thatcher, Ali Azarvinand, Steven Thomas, Ghyslaine Boschat, Chantal Donnelly, and Robert Argent
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2755–2781, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2755-2024, 2024
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We detail the production of datasets and communication to end users of high-resolution projections of rainfall, runoff, and soil moisture for the entire Australian continent. This is important as previous projections for Australia were for small regions and used differing techniques for their projections, making comparisons difficult across Australia's varied climate zones. The data will be beneficial for research purposes and to aid adaptation to climate change.
Daniele Visioni, Alan Robock, Jim Haywood, Matthew Henry, Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Sarah J. Doherty, John Moore, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Olivier Boucher, Abu Syed, Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Roland Séférian, and Ilaria Quaglia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2583–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, 2024
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This paper describes a new experimental protocol for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). In it, we describe the details of a new simulation of sunlight reflection using the stratospheric aerosols that climate models are supposed to run, and we explain the reasons behind each choice we made when defining the protocol.
Jose Rafael Guarin, Jonas Jägermeyr, Elizabeth A. Ainsworth, Fabio A. A. Oliveira, Senthold Asseng, Kenneth Boote, Joshua Elliott, Lisa Emberson, Ian Foster, Gerrit Hoogenboom, David Kelly, Alex C. Ruane, and Katrina Sharps
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2547–2567, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2547-2024, 2024
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The effects of ozone (O3) stress on crop photosynthesis and leaf senescence were added to maize, rice, soybean, and wheat crop models. The modified models reproduced growth and yields under different O3 levels measured in field experiments and reported in the literature. The combined interactions between O3 and additional stresses were reproduced with the new models. These updated crop models can be used to simulate impacts of O3 stress under future climate change and air pollution scenarios.
Jiachen Lu, Negin Nazarian, Melissa Anne Hart, E. Scott Krayenhoff, and Alberto Martilli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2525–2545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2525-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2525-2024, 2024
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This study enhances urban canopy models by refining key assumptions. Simulations for various urban scenarios indicate discrepancies in turbulent transport efficiency for flow properties. We propose two modifications that involve characterizing diffusion coefficients for momentum and turbulent kinetic energy separately and introducing a physics-based
mass-fluxterm. These adjustments enhance the model's performance, offering more reliable temperature and surface flux estimates.
Justin L. Willson, Kevin A. Reed, Christiane Jablonowski, James Kent, Peter H. Lauritzen, Ramachandran Nair, Mark A. Taylor, Paul A. Ullrich, Colin M. Zarzycki, David M. Hall, Don Dazlich, Ross Heikes, Celal Konor, David Randall, Thomas Dubos, Yann Meurdesoif, Xi Chen, Lucas Harris, Christian Kühnlein, Vivian Lee, Abdessamad Qaddouri, Claude Girard, Marco Giorgetta, Daniel Reinert, Hiroaki Miura, Tomoki Ohno, and Ryuji Yoshida
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2493–2507, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2493-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2493-2024, 2024
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Accurate simulation of tropical cyclones (TCs) is essential to understanding their behavior in a changing climate. One way this is accomplished is through model intercomparison projects, where results from multiple climate models are analyzed to provide benchmark solutions for the wider climate modeling community. This study describes and analyzes the previously developed TC test case for nine climate models in an intercomparison project, providing solutions that aid in model development.
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
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Climate scientists want to better understand modern climate change. Thus, climate model experiments are performed and compared. The results of climate model experiments differ, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article gives insights into the challenges and outlines opportunities for further improving the understanding of climate change. It is based on views of a group of experts in atmospheric composition–climate interactions.
Sergey Danilov, Carolin Mehlmann, Dmitry Sidorenko, and Qiang Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2287–2297, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2287-2024, 2024
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Sea ice models are a necessary component of climate models. At very high resolution they are capable of simulating linear kinematic features, such as leads, which are important for better prediction of heat exchanges between the ocean and atmosphere. Two new discretizations are described which improve the sea ice component of the Finite volumE Sea ice–Ocean Model (FESOM version 2) by allowing simulations of finer scales.
Tian Gan, Gregory E. Tucker, Eric W. H. Hutton, Mark D. Piper, Irina Overeem, Albert J. Kettner, Benjamin Campforts, Julia M. Moriarty, Brianna Undzis, Ethan Pierce, and Lynn McCready
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2165–2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2165-2024, 2024
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This study presents the design, implementation, and application of the CSDMS Data Components. The case studies demonstrate that the Data Components provide a consistent way to access heterogeneous datasets from multiple sources, and to seamlessly integrate them with various models for Earth surface process modeling. The Data Components support the creation of open data–model integration workflows to improve the research transparency and reproducibility.
Jérémy Bernard, Erwan Bocher, Matthieu Gousseff, François Leconte, and Elisabeth Le Saux Wiederhold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2077–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2077-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2077-2024, 2024
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Geographical features may have a considerable effect on local climate. The local climate zone (LCZ) system proposed by Stewart and Oke (2012) is seen as a standard approach for classifying any zone according to a set of geographic indicators. While many methods already exist to map the LCZ, only a few tools are openly and freely available. We present the algorithm implemented in GeoClimate software to identify the LCZ of any place in the world using OpenStreetMap data.
Thomas Extier, Thibaut Caley, and Didier M. Roche
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2117–2139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2117-2024, 2024
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Stable water isotopes are used to infer changes in the hydrological cycle for different time periods in climatic archive and climate models. We present the implementation of the δ2H and δ17O water isotopes in the coupled climate model iLOVECLIM and calculate the d- and 17O-excess. Results of a simulation under preindustrial conditions show that the model correctly reproduces the water isotope distribution in the atmosphere and ocean in comparison to data and other global circulation models.
Kirsten L. Findell, Zun Yin, Eunkyo Seo, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Nathan P. Arnold, Nathaniel Chaney, Megan D. Fowler, Meng Huang, David M. Lawrence, Po-Lun Ma, and Joseph A. Santanello Jr.
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1869–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1869-2024, 2024
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We outline a request for sub-daily data to accurately capture the process-level connections between land states, surface fluxes, and the boundary layer response. This high-frequency model output will allow for more direct comparison with observational field campaigns on process-relevant timescales, enable demonstration of inter-model spread in land–atmosphere coupling processes, and aid in targeted identification of sources of deficiencies and opportunities for improvement of the models.
Marlene Klockmann, Udo von Toussaint, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1765–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1765-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1765-2024, 2024
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Reconstructions of climate variability before the observational period rely on climate proxies and sophisticated statistical models to link the proxy information and climate variability. Existing models tend to underestimate the true magnitude of variability, especially if the proxies contain non-climatic noise. We present and test a promising new framework for climate-index reconstructions, based on Gaussian processes, which reconstructs robust variability estimates from noisy and sparse data.
Aaron A. Naidoo-Bagwell, Fanny M. Monteiro, Katharine R. Hendry, Scott Burgan, Jamie D. Wilson, Ben A. Ward, Andy Ridgwell, and Daniel J. Conley
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1729–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1729-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1729-2024, 2024
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As an extension to the EcoGEnIE 1.0 Earth system model that features a diverse plankton community, EcoGEnIE 1.1 includes siliceous plankton diatoms and also considers their impact on biogeochemical cycles. With updates to existing nutrient cycles and the introduction of the silicon cycle, we see improved model performance relative to observational data. Through a more functionally diverse plankton community, the new model enables more comprehensive future study of ocean ecology.
Martin Butzin, Ying Ye, Christoph Völker, Özgür Gürses, Judith Hauck, and Peter Köhler
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1709–1727, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1709-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1709-2024, 2024
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In this paper we describe the implementation of the carbon isotopes 13C and 14C into the marine biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1-REcoM3 and present results of long-term test simulations. Our model results are largely consistent with marine carbon isotope reconstructions for the pre-anthropogenic period, but also exhibit some discrepancies.
Sven Karsten, Hagen Radtke, Matthias Gröger, Ha T. M. Ho-Hagemann, Hossein Mashayekh, Thomas Neumann, and H. E. Markus Meier
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1689–1708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1689-2024, 2024
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This paper describes the development of a regional Earth System Model for the Baltic Sea region. In contrast to conventional coupling approaches, the presented model includes a flux calculator operating on a common exchange grid. This approach automatically ensures a locally consistent treatment of fluxes and simplifies the exchange of model components. The presented model can be used for various scientific questions, such as studies of natural variability and ocean–atmosphere interactions.
Skyler Graap and Colin M. Zarzycki
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1627–1650, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1627-2024, 2024
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A key target for improving climate models is how low, bright clouds are predicted over tropical oceans, since they have important consequences for the Earth's energy budget. A climate model has been updated to improve the physical realism of the treatment of how momentum is moved up and down in the atmosphere. By comparing this updated model to real-world observations from balloon launches, it can be shown to more accurately depict atmospheric structure in trade-wind areas close to the Equator.
Georgia Lazoglou, Theo Economou, Christina Anagnostopoulou, George Zittis, Anna Tzyrkalli, Pantelis Georgiades, and Jos Lelieveld
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-45, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-45, 2024
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This study focused on the important issue of the drizzle bias effect in regional climate models, described by an over-prediction of the number of rainy days while underestimating associated precipitation amounts. For this purpose, two distinct methodologies were applied and rigorously evaluated. These results are encouraging for using the multivariate machine learning method of Random Forest for increasing the accuracy of climate models, concerning the projection of the number of wet days.
Marika M. Holland, Cecile Hannay, John Fasullo, Alexandra Jahn, Jennifer E. Kay, Michael Mills, Isla R. Simpson, William Wieder, Peter Lawrence, Erik Kluzek, and David Bailey
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1585–1602, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024, 2024
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Climate evolves in response to changing forcings, as prescribed in simulations. Models and forcings are updated over time to reflect new understanding. This makes it difficult to attribute simulation differences to either model or forcing changes. Here we present new simulations which enable the separation of model structure and forcing influence between two widely used simulation sets. Results indicate a strong influence of aerosol emission uncertainty on historical climate.
Rongyun Tang, Mingzhou Jin, Jiafu Mao, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Anping Chen, and Yulong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1525–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1525-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1525-2024, 2024
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Carbon-rich boreal peatlands are at risk of burning. The reproducibility and predictability of rare peatland fire events are investigated by constructing a two-step error-correcting machine learning framework to tackle such complex systems. Fire occurrence and impacts are highly predictable with our approach. Factor-controlling simulations revealed that temperature, moisture, and freeze–thaw cycles control boreal peatland fires, indicating thermal impacts on causing peat fires.
Allison B. Collow, Peter R. Colarco, Arlindo M. da Silva, Virginie Buchard, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Sampa Das, Ravi Govindaraju, Dongchul Kim, and Valentina Aquila
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1443–1468, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1443-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1443-2024, 2024
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The GOCART aerosol module within the Goddard Earth Observing System recently underwent a major refactoring and update to the representation of physical processes. Code changes that were included in GOCART Second Generation (GOCART-2G) are documented, and we establish a benchmark simulation that is to be used for future development of the system. The 4-year benchmark simulation was evaluated using in situ and spaceborne measurements to develop a baseline and prioritize future development.
Oksana Guba, Mark A. Taylor, Peter A. Bosler, Christopher Eldred, and Peter H. Lauritzen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1429–1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1429-2024, 2024
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We want to reduce errors in the moist energy budget in numerical atmospheric models. We study a few common assumptions and mechanisms that are used for the moist physics. Some mechanisms are more consistent with the underlying equations. Separately, we study how assumptions about models' thermodynamics affect the modeled energy of precipitation. We also explain how to conserve energy in the moist physics for nonhydrostatic models.
Konstantin Aiteew, Jarno Rouhiainen, Claas Nendel, and René Dechow
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1349–1385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1349-2024, 2024
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This study evaluated the biogeochemical model MONICA and its performance in simulating soil organic carbon changes. MONICA can reproduce plant growth, carbon and nitrogen dynamics, soil water and temperature. The model results were compared with five established carbon turnover models. With the exception of certain sites, adequate reproduction of soil organic carbon stock change rates was achieved. The MONICA model was capable of performing similar to or even better than the other models.
Jianfeng Li, Kai Zhang, Taufiq Hassan, Shixuan Zhang, Po-Lun Ma, Balwinder Singh, Qiyang Yan, and Huilin Huang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1327–1347, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1327-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1327-2024, 2024
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By comparing E3SM simulations with and without regional refinement, we find that model horizontal grid spacing considerably affects the simulated aerosol mass budget, aerosol–cloud interactions, and the effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols. The study identifies the critical physical processes strongly influenced by model resolution. It also highlights the benefit of applying regional refinement in future modeling studies at higher or even convection-permitting resolutions.
Bernd Funke, Thierry Dudok de Wit, Ilaria Ermolli, Margit Haberreiter, Doug Kinnison, Daniel Marsh, Hilde Nesse, Annika Seppälä, Miriam Sinnhuber, and Ilya Usoskin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1217–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1217-2024, 2024
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We outline a road map for the preparation of a solar forcing dataset for the upcoming Phase 7 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7), considering the latest scientific advances made in the reconstruction of solar forcing and in the understanding of climate response while also addressing the issues that were raised during CMIP6.
Fiona Raphaela Spuler, Jakob Benjamin Wessel, Edward Comyn-Platt, James Varndell, and Chiara Cagnazzo
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1249–1269, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1249-2024, 2024
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Before using climate models to study the impacts of climate change, bias adjustment is commonly applied to the models to ensure that they correspond with observations at a local scale. However, this can introduce undesirable distortions into the climate model. In this paper, we present an open-source python package called ibicus to enable the comparison and detailed evaluation of bias adjustment methods, facilitating their transparent and rigorous application.
Donghui Xu, Gautam Bisht, Zeli Tan, Chang Liao, Tian Zhou, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1197–1215, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1197-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1197-2024, 2024
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We aim to disentangle the hydrological and hydraulic controls on streamflow variability in a fully coupled earth system model. We found that calibrating only one process (i.e., traditional calibration procedure) will result in unrealistic parameter values and poor performance of the water cycle, while the simulated streamflow is improved. To address this issue, we further proposed a two-step calibration procedure to reconcile the impacts from hydrological and hydraulic processes on streamflow.
Douglas McNeall, Eddy Robertson, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1059–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1059-2024, 2024
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We can run simulations of the land surface and carbon cycle, using computer models to help us understand and predict climate change and its impacts. These simulations are not perfect reproductions of the real land surface, and that can make them less effective tools. We use new statistical and computational techniques to help us understand how different our models are from the real land surface, how to make them more realistic, and how well we can simulate past and future climate.
Genevieve L. Clow, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Michael N. Levy, Keith Lindsay, and Jennifer E. Kay
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 975–995, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-975-2024, 2024
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Satellite observations of chlorophyll allow us to study marine phytoplankton on a global scale; yet some of these observations are missing due to clouds and other issues. To investigate the impact of missing data, we developed a satellite simulator for chlorophyll in an Earth system model. We found that missing data can impact the global mean chlorophyll by nearly 20 %. The simulated observations provide a more direct comparison to real-world data and can be used to improve model validation.
Jiateng Guo, Xuechuang Xu, Luyuan Wang, Xulei Wang, Lixin Wu, Mark Jessell, Vitaliy Ogarko, Zhibin Liu, and Yufei Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 957–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-957-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-957-2024, 2024
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This study proposes a semi-supervised learning algorithm using pseudo-labels for 3D geological modelling. We establish a 3D geological model using borehole data from a complex real urban local survey area in Shenyang and make an uncertainty analysis of this model. The method effectively expands the sample space, which is suitable for geomodelling and uncertainty analysis from boreholes. The modelling results perform well in terms of spatial morphology and geological semantics.
Shih-Wei Wei, Mariusz Pagowski, Arlindo da Silva, Cheng-Hsuan Lu, and Bo Huang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 795–813, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-795-2024, 2024
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This study describes the modeling system and the evaluation results for the first prototype version of a global aerosol reanalysis product at NOAA, prototype NOAA Aerosol ReAnalysis version 1.0 (pNARA v1.0). We evaluated pNARA v1.0 against independent datasets and compared it with other reanalyses. We identified deficiencies in the system (both in the forecast model and in the data assimilation system) and the uncertainties that exist in our reanalysis.
Emma Howard, Chun-Hsu Su, Christian Stassen, Rajashree Naha, Harvey Ye, Acacia Pepler, Samuel S. Bell, Andrew J. Dowdy, Simon O. Tucker, and Charmaine Franklin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 731–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-731-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-731-2024, 2024
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The BARPA-R modelling configuration has been developed to produce high-resolution climate hazard projections within the Australian region. When using boundary driving data from quasi-observed historical conditions, BARPA-R shows good performance with errors generally on par with reanalysis products. BARPA-R also captures trends, known modes of climate variability, large-scale weather processes, and multivariate relationships.
Deepeshkumar Jain, Suryachandra A. Rao, Ramu A. Dandi, Prasanth A. Pillai, Ankur Srivastava, Maheswar Pradhan, and Kiran V. Gangadharan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 709–729, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-709-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-709-2024, 2024
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The present paper discusses and evaluates the new Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System model (MMCFS) version 2.0 which upgrades the currently operational MMCFS v1.0 at the Indian Meteorological Department, India. The individual model components have been substantially upgraded independently by their respective scientific groups. MMCFS v2.0 includes these upgrades in the operational coupled model. The new model shows significant skill improvement in simulating the Indian monsoon.
Nathan Beech, Thomas Rackow, Tido Semmler, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 529–543, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-529-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-529-2024, 2024
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Cost-reducing modeling strategies are applied to high-resolution simulations of the Southern Ocean in a changing climate. They are evaluated with respect to observations and traditional, lower-resolution modeling methods. The simulations effectively reproduce small-scale ocean flows seen in satellite data and are largely consistent with traditional model simulations after 4 °C of warming. Small-scale flows are found to intensify near bathymetric features and to become more variable.
Carl Svenhag, Moa Kristina Sporre, Tinja Olenius, Daniel Yazgi, Sara Marie Blichner, Lars Peter Nieradzik, and Pontus Roldin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2665, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2665, 2024
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Our research shows the importance of modeling new particle formation (NPF) and growth of particles in the atmosphere on a global scale, as they influence the outcomes of clouds and our climate. With the global model EC-Earth3 we showed that using a new method for NPF modeling, which includes new detailed processes with NH3 and H2SO4, significantly impacted the number of particles in the air and clouds. It also changed the radiation balance in the same magnitude as man-made greenhouse emissions.
Karl E. Taylor
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 415–430, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-415-2024, 2024
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Remapping gridded data in a way that preserves the conservative properties of the climate system can be essential in coupling model components and for accurate assessment of the system’s energy and mass constituents. Remapping packages capable of handling a wide variety of grids can, for some common grids, calculate remapping weights that are somewhat inaccurate. Correcting for these errors, guidelines are provided to ensure conservation when the weights are used in practice.
Pedro M. M. Soares, Frederico Johannsen, Daniela C. A. Lima, Gil Lemos, Virgílio A. Bento, and Angelina Bushenkova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 229–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-229-2024, 2024
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This study uses deep learning (DL) to downscale global climate models for the Iberian Peninsula. Four DL architectures were evaluated and trained using historical climate data and then used to downscale future projections from the global models. These show agreement with the original models and reveal a warming of 2 ºC to 6 ºC, along with decreasing precipitation in western Iberia after 2040. This approach offers key regional climate change information for adaptation strategies in the region.
Abhiraj Bishnoi, Olaf Stein, Catrin I. Meyer, René Redler, Norbert Eicker, Helmuth Haak, Lars Hoffmann, Daniel Klocke, Luis Kornblueh, and Estela Suarez
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 261–273, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-261-2024, 2024
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We enabled the weather and climate model ICON to run in a high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean setup on the JUWELS supercomputer, where the ocean and the model I/O runs on the CPU Cluster, while the atmosphere is running simultaneously on GPUs. Compared to a simulation performed on CPUs only, our approach reduces energy consumption by 45 % with comparable runtimes. The experiments serve as preparation for efficient computing of kilometer-scale climate models on future supercomputing systems.
Diana R. Gergel, Steven B. Malevich, Kelly E. McCusker, Emile Tenezakis, Michael T. Delgado, Meredith A. Fish, and Robert E. Kopp
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 191–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-191-2024, 2024
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The freely available Global Downscaled Projections for Climate Impacts Research (GDPCIR) dataset gives researchers a new tool for studying how future climate will evolve at a local or regional level, corresponding to the latest global climate model simulations prepared as part of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report. Those simulations represent an enormous advance in quality, detail, and scope that GDPCIR translates to the local level.
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Short summary
Our paper provides an overview of all observational climate-related and socioeconomic forcing data used as input for the impact model evaluation and impact attribution experiments within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The experiments are designed to test our understanding of observed changes in natural and human systems and to quantify to what degree these changes have already been induced by climate change.
Our paper provides an overview of all observational climate-related and socioeconomic forcing...
