Articles | Volume 16, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
27 Sep 2023
Model description paper |
| 27 Sep 2023
| 27 Sep 2023
Simulation of a fully coupled 3D glacial isostatic adjustment – ice sheet model for the Antarctic ice sheet over a glacial cycle
Caroline J. van Calcar
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, 2629 HS, Delft, the Netherlands
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, 3508 TA, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, 3508 TA, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, 3584 CB, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Bas Blank
Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, 2629 HS, Delft, the Netherlands
Bas de Boer
Earth and Climate Cluster, Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Wouter van der Wal
Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, 2629 HS, Delft, the Netherlands
Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, 2628 CN, Delft, the Netherlands
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The bedrock response to a melting Antarctic ice sheet delays grounding line retreat by up to 130 years and reduces sea level rise by up to 23% compared to excluding this effect. Current ice sheet models often use computationally fast but simplified Earth models that do not capture this feedback well. We recommend parameters for simple Earth models that approximate bedrock uplift and ice sheet evolution from a complex ice sheet - Earth model to improve sea level projections of the next centuries.
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The bedrock response to a melting Antarctic ice sheet delays grounding line retreat by up to 130 years and reduces sea level rise by up to 23% compared to excluding this effect. Current ice sheet models often use computationally fast but simplified Earth models that do not capture this feedback well. We recommend parameters for simple Earth models that approximate bedrock uplift and ice sheet evolution from a complex ice sheet - Earth model to improve sea level projections of the next centuries.
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Revised manuscript under review for GMD
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The Cryosphere, 17, 3203–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, 2023
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A major uncertainty in the study of sea level rise is the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet by the ocean. Here, we have developed a new model, named LADDIE, that simulates this ocean-driven melting of the floating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet. This model simulates fine-scale patterns of melting and freezing and requires significantly fewer computational resources than state-of-the-art ocean models. LADDIE can be used as a new tool to force high-resolution ice sheet models.
Iris Keizer, Dewi Le Bars, Cees de Valk, André Jüling, Roderik van de Wal, and Sybren Drijfhout
Ocean Sci., 19, 991–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, 2023
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Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
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By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Constantijn J. Berends, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Tim van den Akker, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 17, 1585–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, 2023
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The rate at which the Antarctic ice sheet will melt because of anthropogenic climate change is uncertain. Part of this uncertainty stems from processes occurring beneath the ice, such as the way the ice slides over the underlying bedrock.
Inversion methodsattempt to use observations of the ice-sheet surface to calculate how these sliding processes work. We show that such methods cannot fully solve this problem, so a substantial uncertainty still remains in projections of sea-level rise.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 19, 399–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, 2023
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Ice sheets have a large effect on climate and vice versa. Here we use an ice sheet computer model to simulate the last glacial cycle and compare two methods, one that implicitly includes these feedbacks and one that does not. We found that when including simple climate feedbacks, the North American ice sheet develops from two domes instead of many small domes. Each ice sheet melts slower when including feedbacks. We attribute this difference mostly to air temperature–ice sheet interactions.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, Thomas J. Reerink, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5667–5688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, 2022
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The rate at which marine ice sheets such as the West Antarctic ice sheet will retreat in a warming climate and ocean is still uncertain. Numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physical equations that describe the way glaciers and ice sheets deform and flow, have been substantially improved in recent years. Here we present the results of several years of work on IMAU-ICE, an ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity, which can be used to study ice sheets of both the past and the future.
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Edward G. W. Gasson
The Cryosphere, 16, 1315–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, 2022
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To gain understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheet responded to CO2 changes during past warm climate conditions, we simulate its variability during the Miocene. We include feedbacks between the ice sheet and atmosphere in our model and force the model using time-varying climate conditions. We find that these feedbacks reduce the amplitude of ice volume variations. Erosion-induced changes in the bedrock below the ice sheet that manifested during the Miocene also have a damping effect.
Grace A. Nield, Matt A. King, Rebekka Steffen, and Bas Blank
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2489–2503, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2489-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2489-2022, 2022
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We present a finite-element model of post-seismic solid Earth deformation built in the software package Abaqus for the purpose of calculating post-seismic deformation in the far field of major earthquakes. The model is benchmarked against an existing open-source post-seismic model demonstrating good agreement. The advantage over existing models is the potential for simple modification to include 3-D Earth structure, non-linear rheologies and alternative or multiple sources of stress change.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2443–2470, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2443-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2443-2021, 2021
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The largest uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise comes from ice-sheet retreat. To better understand how these ice sheets respond to the changing climate, ice-sheet models are used, which must be able to reproduce both their present and past evolution. We have created a model that is fast enough to simulate an ice sheet at a high resolution over the course of an entire 120 000-year glacial cycle. This allows us to study processes that cannot be captured by lower-resolution models.
Constantijn J. Berends, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 17, 361–377, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-361-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-361-2021, 2021
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For the past 2.6 million years, the Earth has experienced glacial cycles, where vast ice sheets periodically grew to cover large parts of North America and Eurasia. In the earlier part of this period, this happened every 40 000 years. This value changed 1.2 million years ago to 100 000 years: the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. We investigate this interesting period using an ice-sheet model, studying the interactions between ice sheets and the global climate.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
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We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
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In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
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The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Sophie Nowicki, Heiko Goelzer, Hélène Seroussi, Anthony J. Payne, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Richard Cullather, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Luke D. Trusel, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020
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This paper describes the experimental protocol for ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparion Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) and presents an overview of the atmospheric and oceanic datasets to be used for the simulations. The ISMIP6 framework allows for exploring the uncertainty in 21st century sea level change from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Heiko Goelzer, Brice P. Y. Noël, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, William H. Lipscomb, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 1747–1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, 2020
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Future sea-level change projections with process-based ice sheet models are typically driven with surface mass balance forcing derived from climate models. In this work we address the problems arising from a mismatch of the modelled ice sheet geometry with the one used by the climate model. The proposed remapping method reproduces the original forcing data closely when applied to the original geometry and produces a physically meaningful forcing when applied to different modelled geometries.
Marc Rovira-Navarro, Wouter van der Wal, Valentina R. Barletta, Bart C. Root, and Louise Sandberg Sørensen
Solid Earth, 11, 379–395, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-379-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-379-2020, 2020
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The Barents Sea and Fennoscandia were home to large ice sheets around 20 000 years ago. After the melting of these ice sheets, the land slowly rebounded. The rebound speed is determined by the viscosity of the deep Earth. The rebound is ongoing and causes small changes in the Earth’s gravity field, which can be measured by the GRACE satellite mission. We use these measurements to obtain the viscosity of the upper mantle and find that it is 2 times higher in Fennoscandia than in the Barents Sea.
Heiko Goelzer, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, Bas de Boer, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 833–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, 2020
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In our ice-sheet modelling experience and from exchange with colleagues in different groups, we found that it is not always clear how to calculate the sea-level contribution from a marine ice-sheet model. This goes hand in hand with a lack of documentation and transparency in the published literature on how the sea-level contribution is estimated in different models. With this brief communication, we hope to stimulate awareness and discussion in the community to improve on this situation.
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
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We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Constantijn J. Berends, Bas de Boer, Aisling M. Dolan, Daniel J. Hill, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 15, 1603–1619, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1603-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1603-2019, 2019
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The Late Pliocene, 3.65–2.75 million years ago, is the most recent period in Earth's history that was warmer than the present. This makes it interesting for climatological research, because it provides a possible analogue for the near future. We used a coupled ice-sheet–climate model to simulate the behaviour of these systems during this period. We show that the warmest moment saw a sea-level rise of 8–14 m, with a CO2 concentration of 320–400 ppmv.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
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We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Constantijn J. Berends, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4657–4675, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4657-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4657-2018, 2018
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We have devised a novel way to couple a climate model to an ice-sheet model. Usually, climate models are too slow to simulate more than a few centuries, whereas our new model set-up can simulate a full 120 000-year ice age in about 12 h. This makes it possible to look at the interactions between global climate and ice sheets on long timescales, something which is relevant for both research into past climate and future projections.
Eef C. H. van Dongen, Nina Kirchner, Martin B. van Gijzen, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Thomas Zwinger, Gong Cheng, Per Lötstedt, and Lina von Sydow
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4563–4576, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4563-2018, 2018
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Ice flow forced by gravity is governed by the full Stokes (FS) equations, which are computationally expensive to solve. Therefore, approximations to the FS equations are used, especially when modeling an ice sheet on long time spans. Here, we report a combination of an approximation with the FS equations that allows simulating the dynamics of ice sheets over long time spans without introducing artifacts caused by application of approximations in parts of the domain where they are not valid.
Sarah L. Bradley, Thomas J. Reerink, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel M. Helsen
Clim. Past, 14, 619–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-619-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-619-2018, 2018
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Tamsin Edwards, Matthew Beckley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Reinhard Calov, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan Gregory, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Joseph H. Kennedy, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Sébastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Christian Rodehacke, Martin Rückamp, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Roderik van de Wal, and Florian A. Ziemen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018
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We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, J. Melchior van Wessem, Erik van Meijgaard, Dirk van As, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Stef Lhermitte, Peter Kuipers Munneke, C. J. P. Paul Smeets, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 811–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, 2018
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We present a detailed evaluation of the latest version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3p2 at 11 km resolution (1958–2016) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). The model successfully reproduces the present-day climate and surface mass balance, i.e. snowfall minus meltwater run-off, of the GrIS compared to in situ observations. Since run-off from marginal narrow glaciers is poorly resolved at 11 km, further statistical downscaling to 1 km resolution is required for mass balance studies.
Werner M. J. Lazeroms, Adrian Jenkins, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 12, 49–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-49-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-49-2018, 2018
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Basal melting of ice shelves is a major factor in the decline of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which can contribute significantly to sea-level rise. Here, we investigate a new basal melt model based on the dynamics of meltwater plumes. For the first time, this model is applied to all Antarctic ice shelves. The model results in a realistic melt-rate pattern given suitable data for the topography and ocean temperature, making it a promising tool for future simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Renske C. de Winter, Thomas J. Reerink, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Hylke de Vries, Tamsin Edwards, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2125–2141, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017, 2017
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This paper provides a full range of possible future sea levels on a regional scale, since it includes extreme, but possible, contributions to sea level change from dynamical mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. In contrast to the symmetric distribution used in the IPCC report, it is found that an asymmetric distribution toward high sea level change values locally can increase the mean sea level by 1.8 m this century.
Lennert B. Stap, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Bas de Boer, Richard Bintanja, and Lucas J. Lourens
Clim. Past, 13, 1243–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1243-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1243-2017, 2017
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We show the results of transient simulations with a coupled climate–ice sheet model over the past 38 million years. The CO2 forcing of the model is inversely obtained from a benthic δ18O stack. These simulations enable us to study the influence of ice sheet variability on climate change on long timescales. We find that ice sheet–climate interaction strongly enhances Earth system sensitivity and polar amplification.
Wouter van der Wal and Thijs IJpelaar
Solid Earth, 8, 955–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-8-955-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-8-955-2017, 2017
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As ice sheets grow and shrink, they move rocks around. In Scandinavia the movement took place mostly from inland to offshore areas, resulting in ongoing uplift in Scandinavia and subsidence in offshore areas. This study calculated the changes in height and gravity and found that they are significant. Thus, effects of past sediment loading have to be taken into account when interpreting measurements of height and gravity change in areas close to former ice sheets with large sediment transport.
Michiel M. Helsen, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Thomas J. Reerink, Richard Bintanja, Marianne S. Madsen, Shuting Yang, Qiang Li, and Qiong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 11, 1949–1965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1949-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1949-2017, 2017
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Ice sheets reflect most incoming solar radiation back into space due to their high reflectivity (albedo). The albedo of ice sheets changes as a function of, for example, liquid water content and ageing of snow. In this study we have improved the description of albedo over the Greenland ice sheet in a global climate model. This is an important step, which also improves estimates of the annual ice mass gain or loss over the ice sheet using this global climate model.
Markella Prokopiou, Patricia Martinerie, Célia J. Sapart, Emmanuel Witrant, Guillaume Monteil, Kentaro Ishijima, Sophie Bernard, Jan Kaiser, Ingeborg Levin, Thomas Blunier, David Etheridge, Ed Dlugokencky, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Thomas Röckmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4539–4564, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4539-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4539-2017, 2017
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Nitrous oxide is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas with an increasing mole fraction. To understand its natural and anthropogenic sources
we employ isotope measurements. Results show that while the N2O mole fraction increases, its heavy isotope content decreases. The isotopic changes observed underline the dominance of agricultural emissions especially at the early part of the record, whereas in the later decades the contribution from other anthropogenic sources increases.
Constantijn J. Berends and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4451–4460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4451-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4451-2016, 2016
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This paper describes several improvements to the so-called "flood-fill algorithm" – a computer program widely known for its use in the "paint bucket" tool in several drawing programs such as MS Paint. However, it can also be used to determine the extent and depth of lakes in a topography map, which is useful in hydrology and climatology. In such cases, the default algorithm can be too slow to be of much use. Our improvements can make it up to 100 times faster, making it much more feasible.
Thomas J. Reerink, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4111–4132, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4111-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4111-2016, 2016
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Ice sheets are part of the climate system and interact with the atmosphere and the ocean. OBLIMAP is a powerful tool to map climate fields between GCMs and ISMs (ice sheet models), which run on grids that differ in curvature, resolution and extent. OBLIMAP uses optimal aligned oblique projections, which minimize area distortions. OBLIMAP 2.0 allows for high-frequency embedded coupling and masked mapping. A fast search strategy realizes a huge performance gain and enables high-resolution mapping.
Zheng Xu, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Wouter van der Wal, Michiel van den Broeke, and Ellyn M. Enderlin
The Cryosphere, 10, 895–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-895-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-895-2016, 2016
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In this paper, we compare the regional mass changes of the Greenland ice sheet between the solutions based on GRACE data and input/output method. Differences are found in some regions and indicate errors in those solutions. Therefore we improve our GRACE and IOM solutions by applying a simulation. We show the improved regional mass changes approximations are more consistent in regions. The remaining difference in the northwester Greenland is due to the underestimated uncertainty in IOM solution.
Peter Köhler, Lennert B. Stap, Anna S. von der Heydt, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-23, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-23, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Evidence indicate that specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global annual mean surface temperature change as a response to a change in radiative forcing, is state dependent. We here show that the interpretation of data in the state-dependent case is not straightforward. We analyse the differences of a point-wise approach and one based on a piece-wise linear analysis, combine both, compare with potential model results and apply the theoretical concepts to data of the last 800 kyr.
P. Köhler, B. de Boer, A. S. von der Heydt, L. B. Stap, and R. S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 11, 1801–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1801-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1801-2015, 2015
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We find that the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity due to radiative forcing of CO2 and land ice albedo has been state-dependent for the last 2.1Myr (most of the Pleistocene). Its value is ~45% larger during intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. The state dependency is mainly caused by a latitudinal dependency in ice sheet area changes. Due to uncertainties in CO2, firm conclusions for the Pliocene are not yet possible.
B. Noël, W. J. van de Berg, E. van Meijgaard, P. Kuipers Munneke, R. S. W. van de Wal, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 9, 1831–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1831-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1831-2015, 2015
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We compare Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance (SMB) from the updated polar version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3 and the previous version 2.1. RACMO2.3 has an adjusted rainfall-to-snowfall conversion favouring summer snowfall over rainfall. Enhanced summer snowfall reduce melt rates in the ablation zone by covering dark ice with highly reflective fresh snow. This improves the modelled SMB-elevation gradient and surface energy balance compared to observations in west Greenland.
L. G. van der Wel, H. A. Been, R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and H. A. J. Meijer
The Cryosphere, 9, 1089–1103, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1089-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1089-2015, 2015
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We performed 2H isotope diffusion measurements in the upper 3 metres of firn at Summit, Greenland, by following over a 4-year period isotope-enriched snow that we deposited.
We found that the diffusion process was much less rapid than in the most commonly used model. We discuss several aspects of the diffusion process that are still poorly constrained and might lead to this discrepancy. Quantitative knowledge of diffusion is necessary for use of the diffusion process itself as a climate proxy.
B. de Boer, A. M. Dolan, J. Bernales, E. Gasson, H. Goelzer, N. R. Golledge, J. Sutter, P. Huybrechts, G. Lohmann, I. Rogozhina, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 9, 881–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, 2015
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We present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an intercomparison project with six ice-sheet models. Our results demonstrate the difficulty of all models used here to simulate a significant retreat or re-advance of the East Antarctic ice grounding line. Improved grounding-line physics could be essential for a correct representation of the migration of the grounding line of the Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene.
R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, W. Boot, M. Stoffelen, R. van Kampen, S. H. Doyle, F. Wilhelms, M. R. van den Broeke, C. H. Reijmer, J. Oerlemans, and A. Hubbard
The Cryosphere, 9, 603–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-603-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-603-2015, 2015
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This paper addresses the feedback between ice flow and melt rates. Using 20 years of data covering the whole ablation area, we show that there is not a strong positive correlation between annual ice velocities and melt rates. Rapid variations around the equilibrium line indicate the possibility of rapid variations high on the ice sheet.
S. J. Koenig, A. M. Dolan, B. de Boer, E. J. Stone, D. J. Hill, R. M. DeConto, A. Abe-Ouchi, D. J. Lunt, D. Pollard, A. Quiquet, F. Saito, J. Savage, and R. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 11, 369–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-369-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-369-2015, 2015
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The paper assess the Greenland Ice Sheet’s sensitivity to a warm period in the past, a time when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were comparable to current levels. We quantify ice sheet volume and locations in Greenland and find that the ice sheets are less sensitive to differences in ice sheet model configurations than to changes in imposed climate forcing. We conclude that Pliocene ice was most likely to be limited to highest elevations in eastern and southern Greenland.
P. M. Alexander, M. Tedesco, X. Fettweis, R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 8, 2293–2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2293-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2293-2014, 2014
L. B. Stap, R. S. W. van de Wal, B. de Boer, R. Bintanja, and L. J. Lourens
Clim. Past, 10, 2135–2152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2135-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2135-2014, 2014
B. de Boer, P. Stocchi, and R. S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2141–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2141-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2141-2014, 2014
A. B. A. Slangen, R. S. W. van de Wal, Y. Wada, and L. L. A. Vermeersen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 243–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-243-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-243-2014, 2014
M. M. Helsen, W. J. van de Berg, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, and J. Oerlemans
Clim. Past, 9, 1773–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013, 2013
M. M. Helsen, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, W. J. van de Berg, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 6, 255–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-255-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-255-2012, 2012
R. S. W. van de Wal, B. de Boer, L. J. Lourens, P. Köhler, and R. Bintanja
Clim. Past, 7, 1459–1469, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1459-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1459-2011, 2011
A. B. A. Slangen and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 5, 673–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-673-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-673-2011, 2011
D. Liebrand, L. J. Lourens, D. A. Hodell, B. de Boer, R. S. W. van de Wal, and H. Pälike
Clim. Past, 7, 869–880, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-869-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-869-2011, 2011
I. G. M. Wientjes, R. S. W. Van de Wal, G. J. Reichart, A. Sluijs, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 5, 589–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-589-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-589-2011, 2011
M. R. van den Broeke, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 5, 377–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-377-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-377-2011, 2011
M. A. G. den Ouden, C. H. Reijmer, V. Pohjola, R. S. W. van de Wal, J. Oerlemans, and W. Boot
The Cryosphere, 4, 593–604, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-593-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-593-2010, 2010
T. J. Reerink, M. A. Kliphuis, and R. S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 13–41, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-13-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-13-2010, 2010
M. van den Broeke, P. Smeets, J. Ettema, C. van der Veen, R. van de Wal, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 2, 179–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-179-2008, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-179-2008, 2008
J. Oerlemans, M. Dyurgerov, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 1, 59–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-1-59-2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-1-59-2007, 2007
J. O. Sewall, R. S. W. van de Wal, K. van der Zwan, C. van Oosterhout, H. A. Dijkstra, and C. R. Scotese
Clim. Past, 3, 647–657, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-647-2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-647-2007, 2007
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Development of an automatic delineation of cliff top and toe on very irregular planform coastlines (CliffMetrics v1.0)
Bayesian inference of earthquake rupture models using polynomial chaos expansion
Conor P. B. O'Malley, Gareth G. Roberts, James Panton, Fred D. Richards, J. Huw Davies, Victoria M. Fernandes, and Sia Ghelichkhan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 9023–9049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-9023-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-9023-2024, 2024
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We wish to understand how the history of flowing rock within Earth's interior impacts deflection of its surface. Observations exist to address this problem, and mathematics and different computing tools can be used to predict histories of flow. We explore how modeling choices impact calculated vertical deflections. The sensitivity of vertical motions at Earth's surface to deep flow is assessed, demonstrating how surface observations can enlighten flow histories.
Pengfei Zhang, Yi-an Cui, Jing Xie, Youjun Guo, Jianxin Liu, and Jieran Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8521–8533, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8521-2024, 2024
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Our study proposes a three-dimensional analytical solution for the self-potential (SP) method to detect seafloor massive sulfide deposits. Using the mirror image method, we derived formulas for the SP generated by polarized bodies in layered media. We conducted experiments with a simulated environment and compared the results with our theoretical predictions. The findings confirmed a high degree of accuracy, demonstrating the reliability of our approach for faster and precise SP modeling.
Ryan Love, Glenn A. Milne, Parviz Ajourlou, Soran Parang, Lev Tarasov, and Konstantin Latychev
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8535–8551, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8535-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8535-2024, 2024
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A relatively recent advance in glacial isostatic adjustment modeling has been the development of models that include 3D Earth structure, as opposed to 1D structure. However, a major limitation is the computational expense. We have developed a method using artificial neural networks to emulate the influence of 3D Earth models to affordably constrain the viscosity parameter space. Our results indicate that the misfits are of a scale such that useful predictions of relative sea level can be made.
Tao Yuan, Shijie Zhong, and Geruo A
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3200, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3200, 2024
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Earth and other planets deform visco-elastically under various forces. Numerical modeling is critical in understanding the nature of various dynamic deformation processes. This article introduces a newly developed, open-source package, CitcomSVE-3.0, which efficiently solves the visco-elastic deformation of planetary bodies. We present benchmark results against a semi-analytical code. With its accuracy and efficiency, CitcomSVE could advance research in planetary and climatic sciences.
Yury Alkhimenkov and Yury Y. Podladchikov
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-160, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The Accelerated Pseudo-Transient (APT) method is an efficient way to solve partial differential equations, particularly well-suited for parallel computing. This paper explores the APT method's effectiveness in solving elastic, viscoelastic, and hydro-mechanical problems, focusing on quasi-static conditions in 1D, 2D, and 3D. The study examines the best numerical settings for fast and accurate solutions. The paper shows how the APT can handle complex problems in high-resolution models.
Shengjun Zhang, Xu Chen, Runsheng Zhou, and Yongjun Jia
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2307, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2307, 2024
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NSOAS24, a new global marine gravity model derived from multi-satellite altimetry missions, represents a significant advancement over its predecessor NSOAS22. Through optimized processing procedures, NSOAS24 resolves previous issues and demonstrates improved accuracy. Compared to NSOAS22, it shows a reduction of approximately 0.7 mGal in standard deviation when validated against recent shipborne data. Notably, its accuracy now rivals internationally recognized models DTU21 and V32.1.
Jungang Wang, Junping Chen, and Yize Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1803, 2024
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GNSS is widely used for real-time monitoring and early warning of geohazard. Accurate modeling of tropospheric delays is critical to achieving high-precision GNSS solutions, and using external delay values can improve real-time GNSS convergence time. Current empirical delay models only provide the delay but not the uncertainty. We propose a global empirical delay model with the corresponding uncertainty, and demonstrate its benefits in accelerating GNSS positioning convergence.
Jon B. May, Peter Bird, and Michele M. C. Carafa
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6153–6171, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6153-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6153-2024, 2024
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ShellSet is a combination of well-known geoscience software packages. It features a simple user interface and is optimised through the addition of a grid search input option (automatically searching for optimal models within a defined N-dimensional parameter space) and the ability to run multiple models in parallel. We show that for each number of models tested there is a performance benefit to parallel running, while two examples demonstrate a use case by improving an existing global model.
Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Marisa Montoya, Konstantin Latychev, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, and Jerry Mitrovica
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5263–5290, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5263-2024, 2024
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Ice sheets present a thickness of a few kilometres, leading to a vertical deformation of the crust of up to a kilometre. This process depends on properties of the solid Earth, which can be regionally very different. We propose a model that accounts for this often-ignored heterogeneity and run 100 000 simulation years in minutes. Thus, the evolution of ice sheets is modeled with better accuracy, which is critical for a good mitigation of climate change and, in particular, sea-level rise.
Sia Ghelichkhan, Angus Gibson, D. Rhodri Davies, Stephan C. Kramer, and David A. Ham
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5057–5086, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5057-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5057-2024, 2024
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We introduce the Geoscientific ADjoint Optimisation PlaTform (G-ADOPT), designed for inverse modelling of Earth system processes, with an initial focus on mantle dynamics. G-ADOPT is built upon Firedrake, Dolfin-Adjoint and the Rapid Optimisation Library, which work together to optimise models using an adjoint method, aligning them with seismic and geologic datasets. We demonstrate G-ADOPT's ability to reconstruct mantle evolution and thus be a powerful tool in geosciences.
David Oakley, Christelle Loiselet, Thierry Coowar, Vincent Labbe, and Jean-Paul Callot
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-35, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-35, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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In this work, we develop two automated workflows for identifying fold structures on geological maps using machine learning. In one method, we identify map patterns suggestive of folding based on pre-defined rules and apply a clustering algorithm to group those from the same fold together. In the other, we train a convolutional neural network to identify folds based on a set of training examples. We apply both methods to a set of synthetic maps and to real-world maps from two locations in France.
Rene Gassmöller, Juliane Dannberg, Wolfgang Bangerth, Elbridge Gerry Puckett, and Cedric Thieulot
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4115–4134, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4115-2024, 2024
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Numerical models that use simulated particles are a powerful tool for investigating flow in the interior of the Earth, but the accuracy of these models is not fully understood. Here we present two new benchmarks that allow measurement of model accuracy. We then document that better accuracy matters for applications like convection beneath an oceanic plate. Our benchmarks and methods are freely available to help the community develop better models.
Malte Jörn Ziebarth and Sebastian von Specht
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2783–2828, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2783-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2783-2024, 2024
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Thermal energy from Earth’s active interior constantly dissipates through Earth’s surface. This heat flow is not spatially uniform, and its exact pattern is hard to predict since it depends on crustal and mantle properties, both varying across scales. Our new model REHEATFUNQ addresses this difficulty by treating the fluctuations of heat flow within a region statistically. REHEATFUNQ estimates the regional distribution of heat flow and quantifies known structural signals therein.
Shouzhi Chen, Yongshuo H. Fu, Mingwei Li, Zitong Jia, Yishuo Cui, and Jing Tang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2509–2523, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2509-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2509-2024, 2024
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It is still a challenge to achieve an accurate simulation of vegetation phenology in the dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). We implemented and coupled the spring and autumn phenology models into one of the DGVMs, LPJ-GUESS, and substantially improved the accuracy in capturing the start and end dates of growing seasons. Our study highlights the importance of getting accurate phenology estimations to reduce the uncertainties in plant distribution and terrestrial carbon and water cycling.
Dechao An, Jinyun Guo, Xiaotao Chang, Zhenming Wang, Yongjun Jia, Xin Liu, Valery Bondur, and Heping Sun
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2039–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2039-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2039-2024, 2024
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Seafloor topography, as fundamental geoinformation in marine surveying and mapping, plays a crucial role in numerous scientific studies. In this paper, we focus on constructing a high-precision seafloor topography and bathymetry model for the Philippine Sea (5° N–35° N, 120° E–150° E), based on shipborne bathymetric data and marine gravity anomalies, and evaluate the reliability of the model's accuracy.
Octavi Gómez-Novell, Bruno Pace, Francesco Visini, Joanna Faure Walker, and Oona Scotti
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7339–7355, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7339-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7339-2023, 2023
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Knowing the rate at which earthquakes happen along active faults is crucial to characterize the hazard that they pose. We present an approach (Paleoseismic EArthquake CHronologies, PEACH) to correlate and compute seismic histories using paleoseismic data, a type of data that characterizes past seismic activity from the geological record. Our approach reduces the uncertainties of the seismic histories and overall can improve the knowledge on fault rupture behavior for the seismic hazard.
Sébastien Carretier, Vincent Regard, Youssouf Abdelhafiz, and Bastien Plazolles
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6741–6755, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6741-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6741-2023, 2023
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We present the development of a code to simulate simultaneously the dynamics of landscapes over geological time and the evolution of the concentration of cosmogenic isotopes in grains throughout their transport from the slopes to the river outlets. This new model makes it possible to study the relationship between the detrital signal of cosmogenic isotope concentration measured in sediment and the erosion--deposition processes in watersheds.
Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, and Samantha Engwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6309–6336, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6309-2023, 2023
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We present version 2 of the numerical code IMEX-SfloW2D. With this version it is possible to simulate a wide range of volcanic mass flows (pyroclastic avalanches, lahars, pyroclastic surges), and here we present its application to transient dilute pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). A simulation of the 1883 Krakatau eruption demonstrates the capability of the numerical model to face a complex natural case involving the propagation of PDCs over the sea surface and across topographic obstacles.
Baoyi Zhang, Linze Du, Umair Khan, Yongqiang Tong, Lifang Wang, and Hao Deng
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3651–3674, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3651-2023, 2023
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We propose a Hermite–Birkhoff radial basis function (HRBF) formulation, AdaHRBF, with an adaptive gradient magnitude for continuous 3D stratigraphic potential field (SPF) modeling of multiple stratigraphic interfaces. In the linear system of HRBF interpolants constrained by the scattered on-contact attribute points and off-contact attitude points of a set of strata in 3D space, we add a novel optimization term to iteratively obtain the true gradient magnitude.
Mohammad Moulaeifard, Simon Bernard, and Florian Wellmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3565–3579, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3565-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3565-2023, 2023
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In this work, we propose a flexible framework to generate and interact with geological models using explicit surface representations. The essence of the work lies in the determination of the flexible control mesh, topologically similar to the main geological structure, watertight and controllable with few control points, to manage the geological structures. We exploited the subdivision surface method in our work, which is commonly used in the animation and gaming industry.
Leonardo Mingari, Antonio Costa, Giovanni Macedonio, and Arnau Folch
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3459–3478, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3459-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3459-2023, 2023
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Two novel techniques for ensemble-based data assimilation, suitable for semi-positive-definite variables with highly skewed uncertainty distributions such as tephra deposit mass loading, are applied to reconstruct the tephra fallout deposit resulting from the 2015 Calbuco eruption in Chile. The deposit spatial distribution and the ashfall volume according to the analyses are in good agreement with estimations based on field measurements and isopach maps reported in previous studies.
Hui Gao, Xinming Wu, Jinyu Zhang, Xiaoming Sun, and Zhengfa Bi
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2495–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2495-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2495-2023, 2023
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We propose a workflow to automatically generate synthetic seismic data and corresponding stratigraphic labels (e.g., clinoform facies, relative geologic time, and synchronous horizons) by geological and geophysical forward modeling. Trained with only synthetic datasets, our network works well to accurately and efficiently predict clinoform facies in 2D and 3D field seismic data. Such a workflow can be easily extended for other geological and geophysical scenarios in the future.
Ibsen Chivata Cardenas, Terje Aven, and Roger Flage
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1601–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1601-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1601-2023, 2023
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We discuss challenges in uncertainty quantification for geohazard assessments. The challenges arise from limited data and the one-off nature of geohazard features. The challenges include the credibility of predictions, input uncertainty, and assumptions’ impact. Considerations to increase credibility of the quantification are provided. Crucial tasks in the quantification are the exhaustive scrutiny of the background knowledge coupled with the assessment of deviations of assumptions made.
Zhengfa Bi, Xinming Wu, Zhaoliang Li, Dekuan Chang, and Xueshan Yong
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6841–6861, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6841-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6841-2022, 2022
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We present an implicit modeling method based on deep learning to produce a geologically valid and structurally compatible model from unevenly sampled structural data. Trained with automatically generated synthetic data with realistic features, our network can efficiently model geological structures without the need to solve large systems of mathematical equations, opening new opportunities for further leveraging deep learning to improve modeling capacity in many Earth science applications.
D. Rhodri Davies, Stephan C. Kramer, Sia Ghelichkhan, and Angus Gibson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5127–5166, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5127-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5127-2022, 2022
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Firedrake is a state-of-the-art system that automatically generates highly optimised code for simulating finite-element (FE) problems in geophysical fluid dynamics. It creates a separation of concerns between employing the FE method and implementing it. Here, we demonstrate the applicability and benefits of Firedrake for simulating geodynamical flows, with a focus on the slow creeping motion of Earth's mantle over geological timescales, which is ultimately the engine driving our dynamic Earth.
Federico Brogi, Simone Colucci, Jacopo Matrone, Chiara Paola Montagna, Mattia De' Michieli Vitturi, and Paolo Papale
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3773–3796, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3773-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3773-2022, 2022
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Computer simulations play a fundamental role in understanding volcanic phenomena. The growing complexity of these simulations requires the development of flexible computational tools that can easily switch between sub-models and solution techniques as well as optimizations. MagmaFOAM is a newly developed library that allows for maximum flexibility for solving multiphase volcanic flows and promotes collaborative work for in-house and community model development, testing, and comparison.
Grace A. Nield, Matt A. King, Rebekka Steffen, and Bas Blank
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2489–2503, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2489-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2489-2022, 2022
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We present a finite-element model of post-seismic solid Earth deformation built in the software package Abaqus for the purpose of calculating post-seismic deformation in the far field of major earthquakes. The model is benchmarked against an existing open-source post-seismic model demonstrating good agreement. The advantage over existing models is the potential for simple modification to include 3-D Earth structure, non-linear rheologies and alternative or multiple sources of stress change.
Alessandro Lechmann, David Mair, Akitaka Ariga, Tomoko Ariga, Antonio Ereditato, Ryuichi Nishiyama, Ciro Pistillo, Paola Scampoli, Mykhailo Vladymyrov, and Fritz Schlunegger
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2441–2473, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2441-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2441-2022, 2022
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Muon tomography is a technology that is used often in geoscientific research. The know-how of data analysis is, however, still possessed by physicists who developed this technology. This article aims at providing geoscientists with the necessary tools to perform their own analyses. We hope that a lower threshold to enter the field of muon tomography will allow more geoscientists to engage with muon tomography. SMAUG is set up in a modular way to allow for its own modules to work in between.
Zuzanna M. Swirad and Adam P. Young
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1499–1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1499-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1499-2022, 2022
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Cliff base and top lines that delimit coastal cliff faces are usually manually digitized based on maps, aerial photographs, terrain models, etc. However, manual mapping is time consuming and depends on the mapper's decisions and skills. To increase the objectivity and efficiency of cliff mapping, we developed CliffDelineaTool, an algorithm that identifies cliff base and top positions along cross-shore transects using elevation and slope characteristics.
Holly Kyeore Han, Natalya Gomez, and Jeannette Xiu Wen Wan
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1355–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1355-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1355-2022, 2022
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Interactions between ice sheets, sea level and the solid Earth occur over a range of timescales from years to tens of thousands of years. This requires coupled ice-sheet–sea-level models to exchange information frequently, leading to a quadratic increase in computation time with the number of model timesteps. We present a new sea-level model algorithm that allows coupled models to improve the computational feasibility and precisely capture short-term interactions within longer simulations.
Jérémie Giraud, Vitaliy Ogarko, Roland Martin, Mark Jessell, and Mark Lindsay
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6681–6709, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6681-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6681-2021, 2021
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We review different techniques to model the Earth's subsurface from geophysical data (gravity field anomaly, magnetic field anomaly) using geological models and measurements of the rocks' properties. We show examples of application using idealised examples reproducing realistic features and provide theoretical details of the open-source algorithm we use.
Eric A. de Kemp
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6661–6680, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6661-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6661-2021, 2021
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This is a proof of concept and review paper of spatial agents, with initial research focusing on geomodelling. The results may be of interest to others working on complex regional geological modelling with sparse data. Structural agent-based swarming behaviour is key to advancing this field. The study provides groundwork for research in structural geology 3D modelling with spatial agents. This work was done with NetLogo, a free agent modelling platform used mostly for teaching complex systems.
José M. Bastías Espejo, Andy Wilkins, Gabriel C. Rau, and Philipp Blum
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6257–6272, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6257-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6257-2021, 2021
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The hydraulic and mechanical properties of the subsurface are inherently heterogeneous. RHEA is a simulator that can perform couple hydro-geomechanical processes in heterogeneous porous media with steep gradients. RHEA is able to fully integrate spatial heterogeneity, allowing allocation of distributed hydraulic and geomechanical properties at mesh element level. RHEA is a valuable tool that can simulate problems considering realistic heterogeneity inherent to geologic formations.
Lachlan Grose, Laurent Ailleres, Gautier Laurent, Guillaume Caumon, Mark Jessell, and Robin Armit
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6197–6213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6197-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6197-2021, 2021
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Fault discontinuities in rock packages represent the plane where two blocks of rock have moved. They are challenging to incorporate into geological models because the geometry of the faulted rock units are defined by not only the location of the discontinuity but also the kinematics of the fault. In this paper, we outline a structural geology framework for incorporating faults into geological models by directly incorporating kinematics into the mathematical framework of the model.
Florence Colleoni, Laura De Santis, Enrico Pochini, Edy Forlin, Riccardo Geletti, Giuseppe Brancatelli, Magdala Tesauro, Martina Busetti, and Carla Braitenberg
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5285–5305, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5285-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5285-2021, 2021
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PALEOSTRIP has been developed in the framework of past Antarctic ice sheet reconstructions for periods when bathymetry around Antarctica differed substantially from today. It has been designed for users with no knowledge of numerical modelling and allows users to switch on and off the processes involved in backtracking and backstripping. Applications are broad, and it can be used to restore any continental margin bathymetry or sediment thickness and to perform basin analysis.
Lachlan Grose, Laurent Ailleres, Gautier Laurent, and Mark Jessell
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3915–3937, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3915-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3915-2021, 2021
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LoopStructural is an open-source 3D geological modelling library with a model design allowing for multiple different algorithms to be used for comparison for the same geology. Geological structures are modelled using structural geology concepts and techniques, allowing for complex structures such as overprinted folds and faults to be modelled. In the paper, we demonstrate automatically generating a 3-D model from map2loop-processed geological survey data of the Flinders Ranges, South Australia.
Zhenjiao Jiang, Dirk Mallants, Lei Gao, Tim Munday, Gregoire Mariethoz, and Luk Peeters
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3421–3435, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3421-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3421-2021, 2021
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Fast and reliable tools are required to extract hidden information from big geophysical and remote sensing data. A deep-learning model in 3D image construction from 2D image(s) is here developed for paleovalley mapping from globally available digital elevation data. The outstanding performance for 3D subsurface imaging gives confidence that this generic novel tool will make better use of existing geophysical and remote sensing data for improved management of limited earth resources.
Stephan C. Kramer, D. Rhodri Davies, and Cian R. Wilson
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1899–1919, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1899-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1899-2021, 2021
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Computational models of Earth's mantle require rigorous verification and validation. Analytical solutions of the underlying Stokes equations provide a method to verify that these equations are accurately solved for. However, their derivation in spherical and cylindrical shell domains with physically relevant boundary conditions is involved. This paper provides a number of solutions. They are provided in a Python package (Assess) and their use is demonstrated in a convergence study with Fluidity.
Bastian van den Bout, Theo van Asch, Wei Hu, Chenxiao X. Tang, Olga Mavrouli, Victor G. Jetten, and Cees J. van Westen
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1841–1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1841-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1841-2021, 2021
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Landslides, debris flows and other types of dense gravity-driven flows threaten livelihoods around the globe. Understanding the mechanics of these flows can be crucial for predicting their behaviour and reducing disaster risk. Numerical models assume that the solids and fluids of the flow are unstructured. The newly presented model captures the internal structure during movement. This important step can lead to more accurate predictions of landslide movement.
Andrzej Górszczyk and Stéphane Operto
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1773–1799, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1773-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1773-2021, 2021
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We present the 3D multi-parameter synthetic geomodel of the subduction zone, as well as the workflow designed to implement all of its components. The model contains different geological structures of various scales and complexities. It is intended to serve as a tool for the geophysical community to validate imaging approaches, design acquisition techniques, estimate uncertainties, benchmark computing approaches, etc.
Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi and Federica Pardini
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1345–1377, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1345-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1345-2021, 2021
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Here, we present PLUME-MoM-TSM, a volcanic plume model that allows us to quantify the formation of aggregates during the rise of the plume, model the phase change of water, and include the possibility to simulate the initial spreading of the tephra umbrella cloud intruding from the volcanic column into the atmosphere. The model is first applied to the 2015 Calbuco eruption (Chile) and provides an analytical relationship between the upwind spreading and some characteristic of the volcanic column.
Zhikui Guo, Lars Rüpke, and Chunhui Tao
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6547–6565, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6547-2020, 2020
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We present the 3-D hydro-thermo-transport model HydrothermalFoam v1.0, which we designed to provide the marine geosciences community with an easy-to-use and state-of-the-art tool for simulating mass and energy transport in submarine hydrothermal systems. HydrothermalFoam is based on the popular open-source platform OpenFOAM, comes with a number of tutorials, and is published under the GNU General Public License v3.0.
Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco, F. Ramón Zúñiga, Quetzalcoatl Rodríguez-Pérez, Otilio Rojas, Armando Aguilar-Meléndez, and Josep de la Puente
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6361–6381, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6361-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6361-2020, 2020
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The Mexican subduction zone along the Pacific coast is one of the most active seismic zones in the world, where every year larger-magnitude earthquakes shake huge inland cities such as Mexico City. In this work, we use TREMOL (sThochastic Rupture Earthquake ModeL) to simulate the seismicity observed in this zone. Our numerical results reinforce the hypothesis that in some subduction regions single asperities are responsible for producing the observed seismicity.
Thomas Zwinger, Grace A. Nield, Juha Ruokolainen, and Matt A. King
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1155–1164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1155-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1155-2020, 2020
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We present a newly developed flat-earth model, Elmer/Earth, for viscoelastic treatment of solid earth deformation under ice loads. Unlike many previous approaches with proprietary software, this model is based on the open-source FEM code Elmer, with the advantage for scientists to apply and alter the model without license constraints. The new-generation full-stress ice-sheet model Elmer/Ice shares the same code base, enabling future coupled ice-sheet–glacial-isostatic-adjustment simulations.
Swarup Chauhan, Kathleen Sell, Wolfram Rühaak, Thorsten Wille, and Ingo Sass
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 315–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-315-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-315-2020, 2020
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We present CobWeb 1.0, a graphical user interface for analysing tomographic images of geomaterials. CobWeb offers different machine learning techniques for accurate multiphase image segmentation and visualizing material specific parameters such as pore size distribution, relative porosity and volume fraction. We demonstrate a novel approach of dual filtration and dual segmentation to eliminate edge enhancement artefact in synchrotron-tomographic datasets and provide the computational code.
Loïc Huder, Nicolas Gillet, and Franck Thollard
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3795–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3795-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3795-2019, 2019
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The pygeodyn package is a geomagnetic data assimilation tool written in Python. It gives access to the Earth's core flow dynamics, controlled by geomagnetic observations, by means of a reduced numerical model anchored to geodynamo simulation statistics. It aims to provide the community with a user-friendly and tunable data assimilation algorithm. It can be used for education, geomagnetic model production or tests in conjunction with webgeodyn, a set of visualization tools for geomagnetic models.
Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Giacomo Lari, and Alvaro Aravena
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 581–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-581-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-581-2019, 2019
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Pyroclastic avalanches are a type of granular flow generated at active volcanoes by different mechanisms, including the collapse of steep pyroclastic deposits (e.g., scoria and ash cones) and fountaining during moderately explosive eruptions. We present IMEX_SfloW2D, a depth-averaged flow model describing the granular mixture as a single-phase granular fluid. Benchmark cases and preliminary application to the simulation of the 11 February pyroclastic avalanche at Mt. Etna (Italy) are shown.
Yihao Wu, Zhicai Luo, Bo Zhong, and Chuang Xu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4797–4815, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4797-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4797-2018, 2018
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A multilayer approach is parameterized for model development, and the multiple layers are located at different depths beneath the Earth’s surface. This method may be beneficial for gravity/manget field modeling, which may outperform the traditional single-layer approach.
Andres Payo, Bismarck Jigena Antelo, Martin Hurst, Monica Palaseanu-Lovejoy, Chris Williams, Gareth Jenkins, Kathryn Lee, David Favis-Mortlock, Andrew Barkwith, and Michael A. Ellis
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4317–4337, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4317-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4317-2018, 2018
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We describe a new algorithm that automatically delineates the cliff top and toe of a cliffed coastline from a digital elevation model (DEM). The algorithm builds upon existing methods but is specifically designed to resolve very irregular planform coastlines with many bays and capes, such as parts of the coastline of Great Britain.
Hugo Cruz-Jiménez, Guotu Li, Paul Martin Mai, Ibrahim Hoteit, and Omar M. Knio
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3071–3088, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3071-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3071-2018, 2018
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One of the most important challenges seismologists and earthquake engineers face is reliably estimating ground motion in an area prone to large damaging earthquakes. This study aimed at better understanding the relationship between characteristics of geological faults (e.g., hypocenter location, rupture size/location, etc.) and resulting ground motion, via statistical analysis of a rupture simulation model. This study provides important insight on ground-motion responses to geological faults.
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Short summary
The waxing and waning of the Antarctic ice sheet caused the Earth’s surface to deform, which is stabilizing the ice sheet and mainly determined by the spatially variable viscosity of the mantle. Including this feedback in model simulations led to significant differences in ice sheet extent and ice thickness over the last glacial cycle. The results underline and quantify the importance of including this local feedback effect in ice sheet models when simulating the Antarctic ice sheet evolution.
The waxing and waning of the Antarctic ice sheet caused the Earth’s surface to deform, which...
