Articles | Volume 16, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
GEB v0.1: a large-scale agent-based socio-hydrological model – simulating 10 million individual farming households in a fully distributed hydrological model
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),
Laxenburg, Austria
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU
Amsterdam), De Boelelaan 1087,
1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Mikhail Smilovic
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),
Laxenburg, Austria
Peter Burek
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),
Laxenburg, Austria
Luca Guillaumot
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),
Laxenburg, Austria
Yoshihide Wada
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),
Laxenburg, Austria
Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the
Netherlands
Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU
Amsterdam), De Boelelaan 1087,
1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Related authors
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1013–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated farmers' individual choices – like changing crops or digging wells – and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damage. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrological models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
Nadja Veigel, Heidi Kreibich, Jens A. de Bruijn, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Andrea Cominola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 879–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how social media, specifically Twitter (X), can help us understand public reactions to floods in Germany from 2014 to 2021. Using large language models, we extract topics and patterns of behavior from flood-related tweets. The findings offer insights to improve communication and disaster management. Topics related to low-impact flooding contain descriptive hazard-related content, while the focus shifts to catastrophic impacts and responsibilities during high-impact events.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4409–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As sea levels rise, coastal areas will experience more frequent flooding, and salt water will start seeping into the soil, which is a serious issue for farmers who rely on good soil quality for their crops. Here, we studied coastal Mozambique to understand the risks from sea level rise and flooding by looking at how salt intrusion affects farming and how floods damage buildings. We find that 15 %–21 % of coastal households will adapt and 13 %–20 % will migrate to inland areas in the future.
Ileen N. Streefkerk, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Jens de Bruijn, Khalid Hassaballah, Rhoda Odongo, Teun Schrieks, Oliver Wasonga, and Anne F. Van Loon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2382, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In East Africa are conflict over water and vegetation prominent. On top of that, water abstraction of commercial farms are increasing the competition of water. Therefore, this study has developed a model which can investigate what the influence is of these farming activities on the water balance of the region and people's livelihood activities in times of dry periods. We do that by ‘replacing’ the farms in the model, and see what the effect would be if there were communities or forests instead.
Jens A. de Bruijn, James E. Daniell, Antonios Pomonis, Rashmin Gunasekera, Joshua Macabuag, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Siem Jan Koopman, Nadia Bloemendaal, Hans de Moel, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-282, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-282, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Following hurricanes and other natural hazards, it is important to quickly estimate the damage caused by the hazard such that recovery aid can be granted from organizations such as the European Union and the World Bank. To do so, it is important to estimate the vulnerability of buildings to the hazards. In this research, we use post-disaster observations from social media to improve these vulnerability assessments and show its application in the Bahamas following Hurricane Dorian.
Irene Benito, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Sanne Muis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2287–2315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Global flood models are key to the mitigation of coastal flooding impacts, yet they still have limitations when providing actionable insights locally. We present a multiscale framework that couples dynamic water level and flood models and bridges the fully global and local modelling approaches. We apply it to three historical storms. Our findings reveal that the importance of model refinements varies based on the study area characteristics and the storm’s nature.
Dor Fridman, Mikhail Smilovic, Peter Burek, Sylvia Tramberend, and Taher Kahil
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3735–3754, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3735-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3735-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Global hydrological models are applied at high spatial resolutions to quantify water availability and evaluate water scarcity mitigation options. Yet, they mainly oversee critical local processes. This paper presents and demonstrates the inclusion of wastewater treatment and reuse into a global hydrological model. As a result, model performance improves, and models consider treated wastewater as an alternative water source.
Vylon Ooms, Thijs Endendijk, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Peter Robinson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1882, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1882, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Intense rainfall events cause increasingly severe damages to urban areas globally. We use unique insurance claims data to study the effect of nature-based and other adaptation measures on damage. We compare an area in Amsterdam where measures have been implemented to a similar, adjacent area without measures using an innovative method. We find a significant reduction of damage where the adaptation measures were implemented. Urban areas can reduce rain damage by implementing adaptation measures.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Simon Newland Gosling, Marlo Garnsworthy, Laura Müller, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Atiq Kainan Ahmed, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Julien Boulange, Peter Burek, Jinfeng Chang, He Chen, Lukas Gudmundsson, Manolis Grillakis, Luca Guillaumot, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Rohini Kumar, Guoyong Leng, Junguo Liu, Xingcai Liu, Inga Menke, Vimal Mishra, Yadu Pokhrel, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, Yusuke Satoh, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Mikhail Smilovic, Tobias Stacke, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Wim Thiery, Athanasios Tsilimigkras, Yoshihide Wada, Niko Wanders, and Tokuta Yokohata
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2409–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Global water models contribute to the evaluation of important natural and societal issues but are – as all models – simplified representation of reality. So, there are many ways to calculate the water fluxes and storages. This paper presents a visualization of 16 global water models using a standardized visualization and the pathway towards this common understanding. Next to academic education purposes, we envisage that these diagrams will help researchers, model developers, and data users.
Robert Reinecke, Annemarie Bäthge, Ricarda Dietrich, Sebastian Gnann, Simon N. Gosling, Danielle Grogan, Andreas Hartmann, Stefan Kollet, Rohini Kumar, Richard Lammers, Sida Liu, Yan Liu, Nils Moosdorf, Bibi Naz, Sara Nazari, Chibuike Orazulike, Yadu Pokhrel, Jacob Schewe, Mikhail Smilovic, Maryna Strokal, Yoshihide Wada, Shan Zuidema, and Inge de Graaf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1181, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1181, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Here we describe a collaborative effort to improve predictions of how climate change will affect groundwater. The ISIMIP groundwater sector combines multiple global groundwater models to capture a range of possible outcomes and reduce uncertainty. Initial comparisons reveal significant differences between models in key metrics like water table depth and recharge rates, highlighting the need for structured model intercomparisons.
Tim Busker, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Jaap Kwadijk, Davide Zoccatelli, Rafaella Loureiro, Heather J. Murdock, Laurent Pfister, Benjamin Dewals, Kymo Slager, Annegret H. Thieken, Jan Verkade, Patrick Willems, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-828, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-828, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany, and Belgium were hit by an extreme flood event with over 200 fatalities. Our study provides, for the first time, critical insights into the operational flood early-warning systems in this entire region. Based on 13 expert interviews, we conclude that the systems strongly improved in all countries. Interviewees stressed the need for operational impact-based forecasts, but emphasized that its operational implementation is challenging.
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1013–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated farmers' individual choices – like changing crops or digging wells – and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damage. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrological models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
Nadja Veigel, Heidi Kreibich, Jens A. de Bruijn, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Andrea Cominola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 879–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how social media, specifically Twitter (X), can help us understand public reactions to floods in Germany from 2014 to 2021. Using large language models, we extract topics and patterns of behavior from flood-related tweets. The findings offer insights to improve communication and disaster management. Topics related to low-impact flooding contain descriptive hazard-related content, while the focus shifts to catastrophic impacts and responsibilities during high-impact events.
Taher Kahil, Safa Baccour, Julian Joseph, Reetik Sahu, Peter Burek, Jia Yi Ng, Samar Asad, Dor Fridman, Jose Albiac, Frank A. Ward, and Yoshihide Wada
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-238, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-238, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the development of the global version of the ECHO hydro-economic model for assessing the economic and environmental performance of water management options. This improved version covers a large number of basins worldwide, includes a detailed representation of irrigated agriculture, and accounts for economic benefits and costs of water use. Results of this study demonstrates the capacity of the model to address emerging water-related research and practical questions.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4409–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As sea levels rise, coastal areas will experience more frequent flooding, and salt water will start seeping into the soil, which is a serious issue for farmers who rely on good soil quality for their crops. Here, we studied coastal Mozambique to understand the risks from sea level rise and flooding by looking at how salt intrusion affects farming and how floods damage buildings. We find that 15 %–21 % of coastal households will adapt and 13 %–20 % will migrate to inland areas in the future.
Sadhana Nirandjan, Elco E. Koks, Mengqi Ye, Raghav Pant, Kees C. H. Van Ginkel, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4341–4368, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Critical infrastructures (CIs) are exposed to natural hazards, which may result in significant damage and burden society. Vulnerability is a key determinant for reducing these risks, yet crucial information is scattered in the literature. Our study reviews over 1510 fragility and vulnerability curves for CI assets, creating a unique publicly available physical vulnerability database that can be directly used for hazard risk assessments, including floods, earthquakes, windstorms, and landslides.
Julius Schlumberger, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Jung-Hee Hyun, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Marleen de Ruiter, and Marjolijn Haasnoot
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3655, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3655, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a dashboard to help decision-makers manage risks in a changing climate. Using interactive visualizations, it simplifies complex choices, even with uncertain information. Tested with 54 users of varying expertise, it enabled accurate responses to 71–80 % of questions. Users valued its scenario exploration and detailed data features. While effective, the guidance and set of visualizations could be extended and the prototype could be adapted for broader applications.
Sabin I. Taranu, David M. Lawrence, Yoshihide Wada, Ting Tang, Erik Kluzek, Sam Rabin, Yi Yao, Steven J. De Hertog, Inne Vanderkelen, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7365–7399, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7365-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we improved a climate model by adding the representation of water use sectors such as domestic, industry, and agriculture. This new feature helps us understand how water is used and supplied in various areas. We tested our model from 1971 to 2010 and found that it accurately identifies areas with water scarcity. By modelling the competition between sectors when water availability is limited, the model helps estimate the intensity and extent of individual sectors' water shortages.
Ileen N. Streefkerk, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Jens de Bruijn, Khalid Hassaballah, Rhoda Odongo, Teun Schrieks, Oliver Wasonga, and Anne F. Van Loon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2382, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In East Africa are conflict over water and vegetation prominent. On top of that, water abstraction of commercial farms are increasing the competition of water. Therefore, this study has developed a model which can investigate what the influence is of these farming activities on the water balance of the region and people's livelihood activities in times of dry periods. We do that by ‘replacing’ the farms in the model, and see what the effect would be if there were communities or forests instead.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Botzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2923–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Sarah Hanus, Lilian Schuster, Peter Burek, Fabien Maussion, Yoshihide Wada, and Daniel Viviroli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5123–5144, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a coupling of the large-scale glacier model OGGM and the hydrological model CWatM. Projected future increase in discharge is less strong while future decrease in discharge is stronger when glacier runoff is explicitly included in the large-scale hydrological model. This is because glacier runoff is projected to decrease in nearly all basins. We conclude that an improved glacier representation can prevent underestimating future discharge changes in large river basins.
Muhammad Awais, Adriano Vinca, Edward Byers, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Esther Boere, Peter Burek, Miguel Poblete Cazenave, Paul Natsuo Kishimoto, Alessio Mastrucci, Yusuke Satoh, Amanda Palazzo, Madeleine McPherson, Keywan Riahi, and Volker Krey
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2447–2469, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2447-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2447-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change, population growth, and depletion of natural resources all pose complex and interconnected challenges. Our research offers a novel model that can help in understanding the interplay of these aspects, providing policymakers with a more robust tool for making informed future decisions. The study highlights the significance of incorporating climate impacts within large-scale global integrated assessments, which can help us in generating more climate-resilient scenarios.
Peter Burek and Mikhail Smilovic
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5617–5629, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5617-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We address an annoying problem every grid-based hydrological model must solve to compare simulated and observed river discharge. First, station locations do not fit the high-resolution river network. We update the database with stations based on a new high-resolution network. Second, station locations do not work with a coarser grid-based network. We use a new basin shape similarity concept for station locations on a coarser grid, reducing the error of assigning stations to the wrong basin.
Job C. M. Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Hans de Moel, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1847–1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding is driven by storm surges and high tides and can be devastating. To gain an understanding of the threat posed by coastal flooding and to identify areas that are especially at risk, now and in the future, it is crucial to accurately model coastal inundation and assess the coastal flood hazard. Here, we present a global dataset with hydrographs that represent the typical evolution of an extreme sea level. These can be used to model coastal inundation more accurately.
Raed Hamed, Sem Vijverberg, Anne F. Van Loon, Jeroen Aerts, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 255–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-255-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Spatially compounding soy harvest failures can have important global impacts. Using causal networks, we show that soy yields are predominately driven by summer soil moisture conditions in North and South America. Summer soil moisture is affected by antecedent soil moisture and by remote extra-tropical SST patterns in both hemispheres. Both of these soil moisture drivers are again influenced by ENSO. Our results highlight physical pathways by which ENSO can drive spatially compounding impacts.
Paolo Scussolini, Job Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Alessio Rovere, Pepijn Bakker, Dim Coumou, Hans Renssen, Philip J. Ward, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Clim. Past, 19, 141–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstruct sea level extremes due to storm surges in a past warmer climate. We employ a novel combination of paleoclimate modeling and global ocean hydrodynamic modeling. We find that during the Last Interglacial, about 127 000 years ago, seasonal sea level extremes were indeed significantly different – higher or lower – on long stretches of the global coast. These changes are associated with different patterns of atmospheric storminess linked with meridional shifts in wind bands.
Luca Guillaumot, Laurent Longuevergne, Jean Marçais, Nicolas Lavenant, and Olivier Bour
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5697–5720, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5697-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5697-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recharge, defining the renewal rate of groundwater resources, is difficult to estimate at basin scale. Here, recharge variations are inferred from water table variations recorded in boreholes. First, results show that aquifer-scale properties controlling these variations can be inferred from boreholes. Second, groundwater is recharged by both intense and seasonal rainfall. Third, the short-term contribution appears overestimated in recharge models and depends on the unsaturated zone thickness.
Luca Guillaumot, Mikhail Smilovic, Peter Burek, Jens de Bruijn, Peter Greve, Taher Kahil, and Yoshihide Wada
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7099–7120, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7099-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7099-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop and test the first large-scale hydrological model at regional scale with a very high spatial resolution that includes a water management and groundwater flow model. This study infers the impact of surface and groundwater-based irrigation on groundwater recharge and on evapotranspiration in both irrigated and non-irrigated areas. We argue that water table recorded in boreholes can be used as validation data if water management is well implemented and spatial resolution is ≤ 100 m.
Jiawei Hou, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Hylke E. Beck, Luigi J. Renzullo, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3785–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3785-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3785-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We used satellite imagery to measure monthly reservoir water volumes for 6695 reservoirs worldwide for 1984–2015. We investigated how changing precipitation, streamflow, evaporation, and human activity affected reservoir water storage. Almost half of the reservoirs showed significant increasing or decreasing trends over the past three decades. These changes are caused, first and foremost, by changes in precipitation rather than by changes in net evaporation or dam release patterns.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Jida Wang, Blake A. Walter, Fangfang Yao, Chunqiao Song, Meng Ding, Abu Sayeed Maroof, Jingying Zhu, Chenyu Fan, Jordan M. McAlister, Safat Sikder, Yongwei Sheng, George H. Allen, Jean-François Crétaux, and Yoshihide Wada
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1869–1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1869-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1869-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Improved water infrastructure data on dams and reservoirs remain to be critical to hydrologic modeling, energy planning, and environmental conservation. We present a new global dataset, GeoDAR, that includes nearly 25 000 georeferenced dam points and their associated reservoir boundaries. A majority of these features can be linked to the register of the International Commission on Large Dams, extending the potential of registered attribute information for spatially explicit applications.
Marthe L. K. Wens, Anne F. van Loon, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1201–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we present an application of the empirically calibrated drought risk adaptation model ADOPT for the case of smallholder farmers in the Kenyan drylands. ADOPT is used to evaluate the effect of various top-down drought risk reduction interventions (extension services, early warning systems, ex ante cash transfers, and low credit rates) on individual and community drought risk (adaptation levels, food insecurity, poverty, emergency aid) under different climate change scenarios.
Tom Gleeson, Thorsten Wagener, Petra Döll, Samuel C. Zipper, Charles West, Yoshihide Wada, Richard Taylor, Bridget Scanlon, Rafael Rosolem, Shams Rahman, Nurudeen Oshinlaja, Reed Maxwell, Min-Hui Lo, Hyungjun Kim, Mary Hill, Andreas Hartmann, Graham Fogg, James S. Famiglietti, Agnès Ducharne, Inge de Graaf, Mark Cuthbert, Laura Condon, Etienne Bresciani, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7545–7571, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7545-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater is increasingly being included in large-scale (continental to global) land surface and hydrologic simulations. However, it is challenging to evaluate these simulations because groundwater is
hiddenunderground and thus hard to measure. We suggest using multiple complementary strategies to assess the performance of a model (
model evaluation).
Raed Hamed, Anne F. Van Loon, Jeroen Aerts, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1371–1391, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1371-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1371-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Soy yields in the US are affected by climate variability. We identify the main within-season climate drivers and highlight potential compound events and associated agricultural impacts. Our results show that soy yields are most negatively influenced by the combination of high temperature and low soil moisture during the summer crop reproductive period. Furthermore, we highlight the role of temperature and moisture coupling across the year in generating these hot–dry extremes and linked impacts.
Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Wim Thiery, Guoyong Leng, Peter Burek, Xingcai Liu, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Manolis Grillakis, Simon Newland Gosling, Yusuke Satoh, Oldrich Rakovec, Tobias Stacke, Jinfeng Chang, Niko Wanders, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Tim Trautmann, Ganquan Mao, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Luis Samaniego, Yoshihide Wada, Vimal Mishra, Junguo Liu, Petra Döll, Fang Zhao, Anne Gädeke, Sam S. Rabin, and Florian Herz
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3843–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in 16 global water models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. We develop a standard writing style for the model equations. We conclude that even though hydrologic processes are often based on similar equations, in the end these equations have been adjusted, or the models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables.
Robert Reinecke, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Peter Burek, Martina Flörke, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Wim Thiery, Yoshihide Wada, Satoh Yusuke, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 787–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Billions of people rely on groundwater as an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Groundwater recharge is the primary process of regenerating groundwater resources. We find that groundwater recharge will increase in northern Europe by about 19 % and decrease by 10 % in the Amazon with 3 °C global warming. In the Mediterranean, a 2 °C warming has already lead to a reduction in recharge by 38 %. However, these model predictions are uncertain.
Jens A. de Bruijn, James E. Daniell, Antonios Pomonis, Rashmin Gunasekera, Joshua Macabuag, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Siem Jan Koopman, Nadia Bloemendaal, Hans de Moel, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-282, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-282, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Following hurricanes and other natural hazards, it is important to quickly estimate the damage caused by the hazard such that recovery aid can be granted from organizations such as the European Union and the World Bank. To do so, it is important to estimate the vulnerability of buildings to the hazards. In this research, we use post-disaster observations from social media to improve these vulnerability assessments and show its application in the Bahamas following Hurricane Dorian.
Tom Gleeson, Thorsten Wagener, Petra Döll, Samuel C. Zipper, Charles West, Yoshihide Wada, Richard Taylor, Bridget Scanlon, Rafael Rosolem, Shams Rahman, Nurudeen Oshinlaja, Reed Maxwell, Min-Hui Lo, Hyungjun Kim, Mary Hill, Andreas Hartmann, Graham Fogg, James S. Famiglietti, Agnès Ducharne, Inge de Graaf, Mark Cuthbert, Laura Condon, Etienne Bresciani, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-378, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Cited articles
Ablo, A. D. and Yekple, E. E.: Urban water stress and poor sanitation in
Ghana: perception and experiences of residents in the Ashaiman Municipality,
GeoJournal, 83, 583–594, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-017-9787-6, 2018.
Aerts, J. C. J. H., Botzen, W. J., Clarke, K. C., Cutter, S. L., Hall, J.
W., Merz, B., Michel-Kerjan, E., Mysiak, J., Surminski, S., and Kunreuther,
H.: Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk
assessment, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 193–199,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0085-1, 2018.
Alcamo, J., Döll, P., Henrichs, T., Kaspar, F., Lehner, B., Rösch,
T., and Siebert, S.: Development and testing of the WaterGAP 2 global model
of water use and availability, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 48, 317–337,
https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.48.3.317.45290, 2003.
Arnold, R. T., Troost, C., and Berger, T.: Quantifying the economic
importance of irrigation water reuse in a Chilean watershed using an
integrated agent-based model, Water Resour. Res., 51, 648–668,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015382, 2015.
Batchelor, C. H., Rama Mohan Rao, M. S., and Manohar Rao, S.:
Watershed development: A solution to water shortages in semi-arid India or
part of the problem?, Land Use and Water Resources Research, 3, 1–10,
https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.47866, 2003.
Becu, N., Perez, P., Walker, A., Barreteau, O., and Le Page, C.: Agent based
simulation of a small catchment water management in northern Thailand
Description of the CATCHSCAPE model, Ecol. Model., 170,
319–331, 2003.
Bert, F. E., Podestá, G. P., Rovere, S. L., Menéndez, Á. N.,
North, M., Tatara, E., Laciana, C. E., Weber, E., and Toranzo, F. R.: An
agent based model to simulate structural and land use changes in
agricultural systems of the argentine pampas, Ecol. Model., 222,
3486–3499, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.08.007, 2011.
Bierkens, M. F. P.: Global hydrology 2015: State, trends, and directions,
Water Resour. Res., 51, 4923–4947,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017173, 2015.
Biggs, T., Gaur, A., Scott, C., Thenkabail, P., Gangadhara Rao, P., Gumma,
M. K., Acharya, S., and Turral, H.: Closing of the Krishna Basin: Irrigation,
streamflow depletion and macroscale hydrology, Volume 111 of IWMI Research Report,
ISBN 9290906634, 9789290906636, 2007.
Bouma, J. A., Biggs, T. W., and Bouwer, L. M.: The downstream
externalities of harvesting rainwater in semi-arid watersheds: An Indian
case study, Agr. Water Manage., 98, 1162–1170,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2011.02.010, 2011.
Brouwer, C. and Heibloem, M.: Irrigation water management: irrigation water
needs, Training manual 3, 1–5, 1986.
Burek, P., Satoh, Y., Kahil, T., Tang, T., Greve, P., Smilovic, M., Guillaumot, L., Zhao, F., and Wada, Y.: Development of the Community Water Model (CWatM v1.04) – a high-resolution hydrological model for global and regional assessment of integrated water resources management, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3267–3298, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3267-2020, 2020.
Chaney, N. W., Metcalfe, P., and Wood, E. F.: HydroBlocks: a field-scale
resolving land surface model for application over continental extents,
Hydrol. Process., 30, 3543–3559, https://doi.org/10.1002/HYP.10891, 2016.
Chaney, N. W., Torres-Rojas, L., Vergopolan, N., and Fisher, C. K.: HydroBlocks v0.2: enabling a field-scale two-way coupling between the land surface and river networks in Earth system models, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6813–6832, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6813-2021, 2021.
Deb, K., Pratap, A., Agarwal, S., and Meyarivan, T.: A fast and elitist
multiobjective genetic algorithm: NSGA-II, IEEE T. Evol. Comput., 6,
182–197, https://doi.org/10.1109/4235.996017, 2002.
de Bruijn, J.: jensdebruijn/GEB: v0.1.1 (v0.1.1), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7820962, 2023a.
de Bruijn, J.: jensdebruijn/ABCWatM: v0.1.1 (v0.1.1), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7820968, 2023b.
de Bruijn, J.: VU-IVM/honeybees: v0.2 (0.2), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7820973, 2023c.
Desai, S., Vanneman, R., and National Council of Applied Economic
Research New Delhi: India Human Development Survey (IHDS),
Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research,
https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR22626.v12, 2005.
Di Baldassarre, G., Cloke, H., Lindersson, S., Mazzoleni, M., Mondino, E.,
Mård, J., Odongo, V., Raffetti, E., Ridolfi, E., Rusca, M., Savelli, E.
and Tootoonchi, F.: Integrating Multiple Research Methods to Unravel the
Complexity of Human-Water Systems, AGU Adv., 2, e2021AV000473,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021AV000473, 2021.
Dirmeyer, P. A., Gao, X., Zhao, M., Guo, Z., Oki, T., and Hanasaki, N.:
GSWP-2: Multimodel Analysis and Implications for Our Perception of the Land
Surface, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 87, 1381–1398,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-87-10-1381, 2006.
Dou, Y., Yao, G., Herzberger, A., da Silva, R. F. B., Song, Q., Hovis, C.,
Batistella, M., Moran, E., Wu, W., and Liu, J.: Land-Use Changes in Distant Places: Implementation of a Telecoupled Agent-Based Model, JASSS, 23, 11, https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.4211, 2020.
Eilander, D., Winsemius, H. C., Van Verseveld, W., Yamazaki, D., Weerts, A.,
and Ward, P. J.: MERIT Hydro IHU, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5166932, 2020.
Eilander, D., van Verseveld, W., Yamazaki, D., Weerts, A., Winsemius, H. C., and Ward, P. J.: A hydrography upscaling method for scale-invariant parametrization of distributed hydrological models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5287–5313, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, 2021.
Farrag, M., Vorogushyn, S., Nguyen, D. V., de Bruijn, K., and Merz, B.: River-dike-floodplain system interactions and temporal dynamics for large-scale flood risk assessment, FLOODrisk 2020-4th European Conference on Flood Risk Management,
https://doi.org/10.3311/FloodRisk2020.9.11, 2021.
Fischer, G., Nachtergaele, F. O., Van Velthuizen, H. T., Chiozza, F.,
Franceschini, G., Henry, M., Muchoney, D., and Tramberend, S.: Global
Agro-Ecological Zones v4–Model documentation, Food & Agriculture Org., ISBN 978-92-5-134426-2,
2021.
Flügel, W. A.: Combining GIS with regional hydrological modelling using
hydrological response units (HRUs): An application from Germany, Math.
Comput. Simulat., 43, 297–304, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4754(97)00013-X, 1997.
Fortin, F.-A., De Rainville, F.-M., Gardner, M.-A., Parizeau, M., and
Gagné, C.: DEAP: Evolutionary Algorithms
Made Easy, J. Mach. Learn. Res., 13, 2171–2175, 2012.
Gumma, M. K., Tummala, K., Dixit, S., Collivignarelli, F., Holecz, F.,
Kolli, R. N., and Whitbread, A. M.: Crop type identification and spatial
mapping using Sentinel-2 satellite data with focus on field-level
information, Geocarto Int., 37, 1833–1849, https://doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2020.1805029, 2020.
Gupta, J. and van der Zaag, P.: Interbasin water transfers and integrated
water resources management: Where engineering, science and politics
interlock, Phys. Chem. Earth, 33, 28–40,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2007.04.003, 2008.
Hanasaki, N., Yoshikawa, S., Pokhrel, Y., and Kanae, S.: A global hydrological simulation to specify the sources of water used by humans, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 789–817, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-789-2018, 2018.
Harris, C. R., Millman, K. J., van der Walt, S. J., Gommers, R., Virtanen,
P., Cournapeau, D., Wieser, E., Taylor, J., Berg, S., Smith, N. J., Kern,
R., Picus, M., Hoyer, S., van Kerkwijk, M. H., Brett, M., Haldane, A., del
Río, J. F., Wiebe, M., Peterson, P., Gérard-Marchant, P., Sheppard,
K., Reddy, T., Weckesser, W., Abbasi, H., Gohlke, C., and Oliphant, T. E.:
Array programming with NumPy, Nature, 585, 357–362,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2649-2, 2020.
Huber, L., Bahro, N., Leitinger, G., Tappeiner, U., and Strasser, U.:
Agent-based modelling of a coupled water demand and supply system at the
catchment scale, Sustain., 11, 6178, https://doi.org/10.3390/su11216178, 2019.
Ibisch, R. B., Bogardi, J. J., and Borchardt, D.: Integrated Water Resources
Management: Concept, Research and Implementation, in: Integrated Water
Resources Management: Concept, Research and Implementation, edited by:
Borchardt, D., Bogardi, J. J., and Ibisch, R. B., Springer
International Publishing, Cham, 3–32, ISBN 978-3-319-25071-7, 2016.
Jun, C., Ban, Y., and Li, S.: Open access to Earth land-cover map. Nature
514, https://doi.org/10.1038/514434c, 2014.
Kazil, J., Masad, D., and Crooks, A.: Utilizing Python for Agent-Based Modeling: The Mesa Framework, in: Social, Cultural, and Behavioral Modeling, edited by: Thomson, R., Bigsin, H., Dancy, C., Hyder, A., and Hussain, M., Springer International Publishing, 308–317, 2020.
Kling, H., Fuchs, M., and Paulin, M.: Runoff conditions in the upper Danube
basin under an ensemble of climate change scenarios, J. Hydrol., 424–425,
264–277, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.01.011, 2012.
Kuil, L., Evans, T., McCord, P. F., Salinas, J. L., and Blöschl, G.:
Exploring the Influence of Small-holders “Smallholders” Perceptions Regarding
Water Availability on Crop Choice and Water Allocation Through
Socio-Hydrological Modeling, Water Resour. Res., 54, 2580–2604,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR021420, 2018.
Kummu, M., Guillaume, J. H. A., de Moel, H., Eisner, S., Flörke, M.,
Porkka, M., Siebert, S., Veldkamp, T. I. E., and Ward, P. J.: The world's
road to water scarcity: shortage and stress in the 20th century and pathways
towards sustainability, Sci. Rep., 6, 38495, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep38495, 2016.
Lam, S. K., Pitrou, A., and Seibert, S.: Numba: A llvm-based python jit
compiler, in Proceedings of the Second Workshop on the LLVM Compiler
Infrastructure in HPC, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1145/2833157.2833162, 2015.
Langevin, C. D., et al.: Documentation for the MODFLOW 6 groundwater flow model, No. 6-A55, US Geological Survey, 2017.
Li, F., Cook, S., Geballe, G. T., and Burch Jr, W. R.: Rainwater Harvesting
Agriculture: An Integrated System for Water Management on Rainfed Land in
China's Semiarid Areas, Ambio, 29, 477–483,
https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447-29.8.477, 2000.
Llamas, M. R. and Martínez-Santos, P.: Intensive
groundwater use: silent revolution and potential source of social
conflicts, J. Water Res. Pl., 131, 337–341, https://doi.org/0.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2005)131:5(337), 2005.
Lowder, S. K., Skoet, J., and Raney, T.: The Number, Size, and Distribution of Farms, Smallholder Farms, and Family Farms Worldwide, World Development, 87, 16–29, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.10.041, 2016.
Messager, M. L., Lehner, B., Grill, G., Nedeva, I., and Schmitt, O.:
Estimating the volume and age of water stored in global lakes using a
geo-statistical approach, Nat. Commun., 7, 13603,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13603, 2016.
Mollinga, P. P.: On the waterfront: Water distribution, technology and
agrarian change in a South Indian canal irrigation system, Orient
Blackswan, ISBN 905485927X, 2003.
Müller Schmied, H., Cáceres, D., Eisner, S., Flörke, M., Herbert, C., Niemann, C., Peiris, T. A., Popat, E., Portmann, F. T., Reinecke, R., Schumacher, M., Shadkam, S., Telteu, C.-E., Trautmann, T., and Döll, P.: The global water resources and use model WaterGAP v2.2d: model description and evaluation, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1037–1079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1037-2021, 2021.
Nouri, A., Saghafian, B., Delavar, M., and Bazargan-Lari, M. R.: Agent-Based
Modeling for Evaluation of Crop Pattern and Water Management Policies, Water
Resour. Manag., 33, 3707–3720, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-019-02327-3, 2019a.
Nouri, H., Stokvis, B., Galindo, A., Blatchford, M., and Hoekstra, A. Y.:
Water scarcity alleviation through water footprint reduction in agriculture:
The effect of soil mulching and drip irrigation, Sci. Total Environ., 653,
241–252, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.311, 2019b.
Parween, F., Kumari, P., and Singh, A.: Irrigation water pricing policies and
water resources management, Water Policy, 23, 130–141, 2021.
Porporato, A., Laio, F., Ridolfi, L., and Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.: Plants in
water-controlled ecosystems: active role in hydrologic processes and
response to water stress: III. Vegetation water stress, Adv. Water Resour.,
24, 725–744, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0309-1708(01)00006-9, 2001.
Schulla, J. and Jasper, K.: Model description wasim-eth, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zürich, 2007.
Schreinemachers, P. and Berger, T.: An agent-based simulation model of
human-environment interactions in agricultural systems, Environ. Modell.
Softw., 26, 845–859, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2011.02.004, 2011.
Schrieks, T., Botzen, W. J. W., Wens, M., Haer, T., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.:
Integrating Behavioral Theories in Agent-Based Models for Agricultural
Drought Risk Assessments, Front. Water, 3, 104,
https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2021.686329, 2021.
Shah, T. and Bhattacharya, S.: Farmer Organizations for Lift Irrigation:
Irrigation Companies and Tubewell Cooperatives of Gujarat,
http://hdl.handle.net/10535/4600 (last access: 2 May 2023), 1993.
Sharma, B. R., Rao, K., and Massuel, S.: Groundwater externalities
of surface irrigation transfers under National River Linking Project:
Polavaram–Vijayawada link. Strategic Analyses of the National River Linking
Project (NRLP) of India Series 2, 271, 2008.
Siebert, S. and Döll, P.: Quantifying blue and green virtual water
contents in global crop production as well as potential production losses
without irrigation, J. Hydrol., 384, 198–217,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.07.031, 2010.
Streefkerk, I. N., de Bruijn, J., Haer, T., Van Loon, A. F., Quichimbo, E. A., Wens, M., Hassaballah, K., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: A coupled agent-based model to analyse
human-drought feedbacks for agropastoralists in dryland regions, Front. Water, 4, https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2022.1037971, 2023.
Surinaidu, L., Bacon, C. G. D., and Pavelic, P.: Agricultural groundwater management in the Upper Bhima Basin, India: current status and future scenarios, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 507–517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-507-2013, 2013.
Sutanudjaja, E. H., van Beek, R., Wanders, N., Wada, Y., Bosmans, J. H. C., Drost, N., van der Ent, R. J., de Graaf, I. E. M., Hoch, J. M., de Jong, K., Karssenberg, D., López López, P., Peßenteiner, S., Schmitz, O., Straatsma, M. W., Vannametee, E., Wisser, D., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: PCR-GLOBWB 2: a 5 arcmin global hydrological and water resources model, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2429–2453, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2429-2018, 2018.
Tamburino, L., Di Baldassarre, G., and Vico, G.: Water management for
irrigation, crop yield and social attitudes: a socio-agricultural
agent-based model to explore a collective action problem, Hydrolog. Sci. J.,
65, 1815–1829, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2020.1769103, 2020.
Tripathi, A. and Mishra, A. K.: Knowledge and passive adaptation to
climate change: An example from Indian farmers, Climate Risk Manage., 16,
195–207, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.11.002, 2017.
van Leeuwen, C. J., Dan, N. P. and Dieperink, C.: The challenges of water
governance in Ho Chi Minh City, Integr. Environ. Assess., 12,
345–352, https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.1664, 2016.
van Oel, P. R., Krol, M. S., Hoekstra, A. Y., and Taddei, R. R.: Feedback
mechanisms between water availability and water use in a semi-arid river
basin: A spatially explicit multi-agent simulation approach, Environ. Modell.
Softw., 25, 433–443, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.10.018,
2010.
Veldkamp, T. I. E., Wada, Y., de Moel, H., Kummu, M., Eisner, S., Aerts, J.
C. J. H., and Ward, P. J.: Changing mechanism of global water scarcity
events: Impacts of socioeconomic changes and inter-annual hydro-climatic
variability, Global Environ. Chang., 32, 18–29,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.02.011, 2015.
Veldkamp, T. I. E., Wada, Y., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Döll, P., Gosling, S.
N., Liu, J., Masaki, Y., Oki, T., Ostberg, S., Pokhrel, Y., Satoh, Y., Kim,
H., and Ward, P. J.: Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human
interventions in the 20th and 21st century, Nat. Commun., 8, 15697,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15697, 2017.
Wada, Y., van Beek, L. P. H., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 3785–3808, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3785-2011, 2011.
Waldner, F. and Diakogiannis, F. I.: Deep learning on edge: Extracting field
boundaries from satellite images with a convolutional neural network, Remote
Sens. Environ., 245, 111741, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2020.111741,
2020.
Wallach, B.: Irrigation Developments in the Krishna Basin since 1947, Geogr.
Rev., 74, 127–144, https://doi.org/10.2307/214095, 1984.
Ward, P. J., de Ruiter, M. C., Mård, J., Schröter, K., Van Loon, A.,
Veldkamp, T., von Uexkull, N., Wanders, N., AghaKouchak, A.,
Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Capewell, L., Carmen Llasat, M., Day, R., Dewals, B.,
Di Baldassarre, G., Huning, L. S., Kreibich, H., Mazzoleni, M., Savelli, E.,
Teutschbein, C., van den Berg, H., van der Heijden, A., Vincken, J. M. R.,
Waterloo, M. J., and Wens, M.: The need to integrate flood and drought
disaster risk reduction strategies, Water Secur., 11, 100070,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasec.2020.100070, 2020.
Warszawski, L., Frieler, K., Huber, V., Piontek, F., Serdeczny, O., and Schewe, J.: The inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project (ISI–MIP): project framework, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3228–3232, 2014.
Wens, M., Veldkamp, T. I. E., Mwangi, M., Johnson, J. M., Lasage, R., Haer,
T., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Simulating Small-Scale Agricultural Adaptation
Decisions in Response to Drought Risk: An Empirical Agent-Based Model for
Semi-Arid Kenya, Front. Water, 2, 15, https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2020.00015, 2020.
Yamazaki, D., Ikeshima, D., Sosa, J., Bates, P. D., Allen, G. H., and
Pavelsky, T. M.: MERIT Hydro: A high-resolution global hydrography map based
on latest topography dataset, Water Resour. Res., 55, 5053–5073, 2019.
Short summary
We present a computer simulation model of the hydrological system and human system, which can simulate the behaviour of individual farmers and their interactions with the water system at basin scale to assess how the systems have evolved and are projected to evolve in the future. For example, we can simulate the effect of subsidies provided on investment in adaptation measures and subsequent effects in the hydrological system, such as a lowering of the groundwater table or reservoir level.
We present a computer simulation model of the hydrological system and human system, which can...