Articles | Volume 16, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
15 May 2023
Model description paper |
| 15 May 2023
| 15 May 2023
The CryoGrid community model (version 1.0) – a multi-physics toolbox for climate-driven simulations in the terrestrial cryosphere
Sebastian Westermann
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Center for Biogeochemistry of the Anthropocene, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen
DTU Sustain, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
Johanna Scheer
DTU Sustain, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
Kristoffer Aalstad
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Juditha Aga
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Center for Biogeochemistry of the Anthropocene, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Nitin Chaudhary
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
Bernd Etzelmüller
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Simon Filhol
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Andreas Kääb
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Cas Renette
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Louise Steffensen Schmidt
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Thomas Vikhamar Schuler
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Robin B. Zweigel
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Center for Biogeochemistry of the Anthropocene, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Léo Martin
Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Sarah Morard
Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
Matan Ben-Asher
EDYTEM Lab, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, Le Bourget-du-Lac, France
Michael Angelopoulos
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Julia Boike
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Brian Groenke
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Technical University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Frederieke Miesner
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Jan Nitzbon
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Paul Overduin
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Simone M. Stuenzi
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Moritz Langer
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth Surface Dynamics (ESurf).
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1039, 2026
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Biogeosciences, 23, 1497–1514, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-1497-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-1497-2026, 2026
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The Cryosphere, 20, 1179–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1179-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1179-2026, 2026
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Robin B. Zweigel, Dashtseren Avirmed, Khurelbaatar Temuujin, Clare Webster, Hanna Lee, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 20, 1001–1023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1001-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1001-2026, 2026
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Clarissa Willmes, Kristoffer Aalstad, and Sebastian Westermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3142, 2025
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In permafrost areas, the spatial variability of the snow cover significantly affects the ground thermal regime. This study presents an algorithm that integrates satellite data into a permafrost model to enhance the spatial detail of ground temperature simulations. At a site on Svalbard, the algorithm improves simulations of ground temperatures especially for wind-blown ridges with little snow, as well as snow-drift sites.
Marco Mazzolini, Kristoffer Aalstad, Esteban Alonso-González, Sebastian Westermann, and Désirée Treichler
The Cryosphere, 19, 3831–3848, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3831-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3831-2025, 2025
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In this work, we showcase the use the satellite laser altimeter ICESat-2, which is able to retrieve snow depth in areas where snow amounts are still poorly estimated despite the importance of these water resources. We can update snow models with these observations through algorithms that spatially propagate the information beyond the satellite profiles. The positive results show the potential of the approach to improve snow simulations, in terms of average snow depth and spatial distribution.
Joana Pedro Baptista, Gonçalo Brito Guapo Teles Vieira, António Manuel de Carvalho Soares Correia, Hyoungseok Lee, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 19, 3459–3476, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3459-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3459-2025, 2025
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Permafrost underlies ice-free areas of Antarctica, but its response to long-term warming is unclear due to a limited number of monitoring sites. To address this, we used the CryoGrid model, forced with climate data, to estimate permafrost temperatures and active layer thickness at King Sejong Station since 1950. The results show ground temperatures rising 0.25 °C per decade and the active layer thickening by 2 m. Warming has accelerated since 2015, highlighting the need for continued monitoring.
Jacqueline K. Knutson, François Clayer, Peter Dörsch, Sebastian Westermann, and Heleen A. de Wit
Biogeosciences, 22, 3899–3914, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3899-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3899-2025, 2025
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Thawing permafrost at Iškoras in northern Norway is transforming peat plateaus into thermokarst ponds and wetlands. These small ponds show striking oversaturation of dissolved greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), partly owing to organic matter processing. Streams nearby emit CO2, driven by turbulence. As permafrost disappears, carbon dynamics will change, potentially increasing emissions of CH4. This study highlights the need to integrate these changes into climate models.
Robin Benjamin Zweigel, Avirmed Dashtseren, Khurelbaatar Temuujin, Anarmaa Sharkhuu, Clare Webster, Hanna Lee, and Sebastian Westermann
Biogeosciences, 21, 5059–5077, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5059-2024, 2024
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Intense grazing at grassland sites removes vegetation, reduces the snow cover, and inhibits litter layers from forming. Grazed sites generally have a larger annual ground surface temperature amplitude than ungrazed sites, but the net effect depends on effects in the transitional seasons. Our results also suggest that seasonal use of pastures can reduce ground temperatures, which can be a strategy to protect currently degrading grassland permafrost.
Sigrid Trier Kjær, Sebastian Westermann, Nora Nedkvitne, and Peter Dörsch
Biogeosciences, 21, 4723–4737, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4723-2024, 2024
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Permafrost peatlands are thawing due to climate change, releasing large quantities of carbon that degrades upon thawing and is released as CO2, CH4 or dissolved organic carbon (DOC). We incubated thawed Norwegian permafrost peat plateaus and thermokarst pond sediment found next to permafrost for up to 350 d to measure carbon loss. CO2 production was initially the highest, whereas CH4 production increased over time. The largest carbon loss was measured at the top of the peat plateau core as DOC.
Juditha Aga, Livia Piermattei, Luc Girod, Kristoffer Aalstad, Trond Eiken, Andreas Kääb, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1049–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1049-2024, 2024
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Coastal rock cliffs on Svalbard are considered to be fairly stable; however, long-term trends in coastal-retreat rates remain unknown. This study examines changes in the coastline position along Brøggerhalvøya, Svalbard, using aerial images from 1970, 1990, 2010, and 2021. Our analysis shows that coastal-retreat rates accelerate during the period 2010–2021, which coincides with increasing storminess and retreating sea ice.
Moritz Langer, Jan Nitzbon, Brian Groenke, Lisa-Marie Assmann, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Simone Maria Stuenzi, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 18, 363–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-363-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-363-2024, 2024
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Using a model that can simulate the evolution of Arctic permafrost over centuries to millennia, we find that post-industrialization permafrost warming has three "hotspots" in NE Canada, N Alaska, and W Siberia. The extent of near-surface permafrost has decreased substantially since 1850, with the largest area losses occurring in the last 50 years. The simulations also show that volcanic eruptions have in some cases counteracted the loss of near-surface permafrost for a few decades.
Esteban Alonso-González, Kristoffer Aalstad, Norbert Pirk, Marco Mazzolini, Désirée Treichler, Paul Leclercq, Sebastian Westermann, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, and Simon Gascoin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4637–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4637-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4637-2023, 2023
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Here we explore how to improve hyper-resolution (5 m) distributed snowpack simulations using sparse observations, which do not provide information from all the areas of the simulation domain. We propose a new way of propagating information throughout the simulations adapted to the hyper-resolution, which could also be used to improve simulations of other nature. The method has been implemented in an open-source data assimilation tool that is readily accessible to everyone.
Bernd Etzelmüller, Ketil Isaksen, Justyna Czekirda, Sebastian Westermann, Christin Hilbich, and Christian Hauck
The Cryosphere, 17, 5477–5497, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5477-2023, 2023
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Permafrost (permanently frozen ground) is widespread in the mountains of Norway and Iceland. Several boreholes were drilled after 1999 for long-term permafrost monitoring. We document a strong warming of permafrost, including the development of unfrozen bodies in the permafrost. Warming and degradation of mountain permafrost may lead to more natural hazards.
Anatoly O. Sinitsyn, Sara Bazin, Rasmus Benestad, Bernd Etzelmüller, Ketil Isaksen, Hanne Kvitsand, Julia Lutz, Andrea L. Popp, Lena Rubensdotter, and Sebastian Westermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2950, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2950, 2023
Preprint archived
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This study looked at under the ground on Svalbard, an archipelago close to the North Pole. We found something very surprising – there is water under the all year around frozen soil. This was not known before. This water could be used for drinking if we manage it carefully. This is important because getting clean drinking water is very difficult in Svalbard, and other Arctic places. Also, because the climate is getting warmer, there might be even more water underground in the future.
Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Michele Magni, Fanny Brun, Joel Fiddes, Yanbin Lei, Philip Kraaijenbrink, Tamara Mathys, Moritz Langer, Simon Allen, and Walter W. Immerzeel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4409–4436, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, 2023
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Across the Tibetan Plateau, many large lakes have been changing level during the last decades as a response to climate change. In high-mountain environments, water fluxes from the land to the lakes are linked to the ground temperature of the land and to the energy fluxes between the ground and the atmosphere, which are modified by climate change. With a numerical model, we test how these water and energy fluxes have changed over the last decades and how they influence the lake level variations.
Juditha Aga, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 4179–4206, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, 2023
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This study presents a new model scheme for simulating ice segregation and thaw consolidation in permafrost environments, depending on ground properties and climatic forcing. It is embedded in the CryoGrid community model, a land surface model for the terrestrial cryosphere. We describe the model physics and functionalities, followed by a model validation and a sensitivity study of controlling factors.
Matan Ben-Asher, Florence Magnin, Sebastian Westermann, Josué Bock, Emmanuel Malet, Johan Berthet, Ludovic Ravanel, and Philip Deline
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 899–915, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-899-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-899-2023, 2023
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Quantitative knowledge of water availability on high mountain rock slopes is very limited. We use a numerical model and field measurements to estimate the water balance at a steep rock wall site. We show that snowmelt is the main source of water at elevations >3600 m and that snowpack hydrology and sublimation are key factors. The new information presented here can be used to improve the understanding of thermal, hydrogeological, and mechanical processes on steep mountain rock slopes.
Brian Groenke, Moritz Langer, Jan Nitzbon, Sebastian Westermann, Guillermo Gallego, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 17, 3505–3533, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, 2023
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It is now well known from long-term temperature measurements that Arctic permafrost, i.e., ground that remains continuously frozen for at least 2 years, is warming in response to climate change. Temperature, however, only tells half of the story. In this study, we use computer modeling to better understand how the thawing and freezing of water in the ground affects the way permafrost responds to climate change and what temperature trends can and cannot tell us about how permafrost is changing.
Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Erin Emily Thomas, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 2941–2963, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2941-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2941-2023, 2023
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Here, we present high-resolution simulations of glacier mass balance (the gain and loss of ice over a year) and runoff on Svalbard from 1991–2022, one of the fastest warming regions in the Arctic. The simulations are created using the CryoGrid community model. We find a small overall loss of mass over the simulation period of −0.08 m yr−1 but with no statistically significant trend. The average runoff was found to be 41 Gt yr−1, with a significant increasing trend of 6.3 Gt per decade.
Justyna Czekirda, Bernd Etzelmüller, Sebastian Westermann, Ketil Isaksen, and Florence Magnin
The Cryosphere, 17, 2725–2754, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2725-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2725-2023, 2023
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We assess spatio-temporal permafrost variations in selected rock walls in Norway over the last 120 years. Ground temperature is modelled using the two-dimensional ground heat flux model CryoGrid 2D along nine profiles. Permafrost probably occurs at most sites. All simulations show increasing ground temperature from the 1980s. Our simulations show that rock wall permafrost with a temperature of −1 °C at 20 m depth could thaw at this depth within 50 years.
Norbert Pirk, Kristoffer Aalstad, Yeliz A. Yilmaz, Astrid Vatne, Andrea L. Popp, Peter Horvath, Anders Bryn, Ane Victoria Vollsnes, Sebastian Westermann, Terje Koren Berntsen, Frode Stordal, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Biogeosciences, 20, 2031–2047, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2031-2023, 2023
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We measured the land–atmosphere exchange of CO2 and water vapor in alpine Norway over 3 years. The extremely snow-rich conditions in 2020 reduced the total annual evapotranspiration to 50 % and reduced the growing-season carbon assimilation to turn the ecosystem from a moderate annual carbon sink to an even stronger source. Our analysis suggests that snow cover anomalies are driving the most consequential short-term responses in this ecosystem’s functioning.
Cas Renette, Kristoffer Aalstad, Juditha Aga, Robin Benjamin Zweigel, Bernd Etzelmüller, Karianne Staalesen Lilleøren, Ketil Isaksen, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 33–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-33-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-33-2023, 2023
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One of the reasons for lower ground temperatures in coarse, blocky terrain is a low or varying soil moisture content, which most permafrost modelling studies did not take into account. We used the CryoGrid community model to successfully simulate this effect and found markedly lower temperatures in well-drained, blocky deposits compared to other set-ups. The inclusion of this drainage effect is another step towards a better model representation of blocky mountain terrain in permafrost regions.
Norbert Pirk, Kristoffer Aalstad, Sebastian Westermann, Astrid Vatne, Alouette van Hove, Lena Merete Tallaksen, Massimo Cassiani, and Gabriel Katul
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 7293–7314, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-7293-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-7293-2022, 2022
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In this study, we show how sparse and noisy drone measurements can be combined with an ensemble of turbulence-resolving wind simulations to estimate uncertainty-aware surface energy exchange. We demonstrate the feasibility of this drone data assimilation framework in a series of synthetic and real-world experiments. This new framework can, in future, be applied to estimate energy and gas exchange in heterogeneous landscapes more representatively than conventional methods.
Juri Palmtag, Jaroslav Obu, Peter Kuhry, Andreas Richter, Matthias B. Siewert, Niels Weiss, Sebastian Westermann, and Gustaf Hugelius
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4095–4110, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4095-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4095-2022, 2022
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The northern permafrost region covers 22 % of the Northern Hemisphere and holds almost twice as much carbon as the atmosphere. This paper presents data from 651 soil pedons encompassing more than 6500 samples from 16 different study areas across the northern permafrost region. We use this dataset together with ESA's global land cover dataset to estimate soil organic carbon and total nitrogen storage up to 300 cm soil depth, with estimated values of 813 Pg for carbon and 55 Pg for nitrogen.
Noah D. Smith, Eleanor J. Burke, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Inge H. J. Althuizen, Julia Boike, Casper Tai Christiansen, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Friborg, Hanna Lee, Heather Rumbold, Rachael H. Turton, Sebastian Westermann, and Sarah E. Chadburn
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3603–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, 2022
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The Arctic has large areas of small mounds that are caused by ice lifting up the soil. Snow blown by wind gathers in hollows next to these mounds, insulating them in winter. The hollows tend to be wetter, and thus the soil absorbs more heat in summer. The warm wet soil in the hollows decomposes, releasing methane. We have made a model of this, and we have tested how it behaves and whether it looks like sites in Scandinavia and Siberia. Sometimes we get more methane than a model without mounds.
Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Angela V. Gallego-Sala, Noah D. Smith, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Dan J. Charman, Julia Drewer, Colin W. Edgar, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Yao Gao, Mahdi Nakhavali, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Edward A. G. Schuur, and Sebastian Westermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1633–1657, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022, 2022
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We present a new method to include peatlands in an Earth system model (ESM). Peatlands store huge amounts of carbon that accumulates very slowly but that can be rapidly destabilised, emitting greenhouse gases. Our model captures the dynamic nature of peat by simulating the change in surface height and physical properties of the soil as carbon is added or decomposed. Thus, we model, for the first time in an ESM, peat dynamics and its threshold behaviours that can lead to destabilisation.
Bernd Etzelmüller, Justyna Czekirda, Florence Magnin, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Ludovic Ravanel, Emanuelle Malet, Andreas Aspaas, Lene Kristensen, Ingrid Skrede, Gudrun D. Majala, Benjamin Jacobs, Johannes Leinauer, Christian Hauck, Christin Hilbich, Martina Böhme, Reginald Hermanns, Harald Ø. Eriksen, Tom Rune Lauknes, Michael Krautblatter, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 97–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, 2022
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This paper is a multi-authored study documenting the possible existence of permafrost in permanently monitored rockslides in Norway for the first time by combining a multitude of field data, including geophysical surveys in rock walls. The paper discusses the possible role of thermal regime and rockslide movement, and it evaluates the possible impact of atmospheric warming on rockslide dynamics in Norwegian mountains.
Juditha Aga, Antoni G. Lewkowicz, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 20, 5225–5245, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5225-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5225-2026, 2026
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In this study, we explore the influence of a warming climate on landslides in ice-rich permafrost slopes. Using climate, terrain and soil data, we built a model that simulates permafrost thaw and its impact on slope stability over time. We tested the model on Banks Island, Canada, and it reproduced years with many new landslide observations and identified the most susceptible slopes. The model can also be applied to other permafrost regions, and to both past and future climate conditions.
Ronja Lappe, Ursula Enzenhofer, Pascal E. Egli, Yongmei Gong, Liss M. Andreassen, Andreas Kääb, and Martina Calovi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5025, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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A lake dammed by a glacier in Norway floods almost every summer. Using satellite images, weather data and field measurements, we tracked its filling and draining from 2016 to 2025 to test how reliable this method is. Outdated maps of the lakebed caused the biggest errors, underestimating flood volumes by about a quarter. Floods now happen ten days earlier than a decade ago, likely from glacier melt due to warming, showing that satellites can help monitor such hazards worldwide.
Kristoffer Aalstad, Esteban Alonso-González, Norbert Pirk, Sebastian Westermann, Clarissa Willmes, and Ruitang Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 8565–8596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8565-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8565-2026, 2026
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AdaPBS (Adaptive Particle Batch Smoother) is a new algorithm to combine observations with cryospheric numerical models. AdaPBS is an iterative algorithm that automatically adjusts computing effort to the task, allowing the implementation of early stopping strategies. We tested AdaPBS at multiple sites with different models, matching or outperforming standard methods, when compared against more complex (computationally expensive) algorithms.
Andreas Aspaas, Grégory Bievre, Pascal Lacroix, Nadège Langet, Juditha Aga, Ingrid Skrede, Lene Kristensen, Bernd Etzelmüller, and François Renard
Earth Surf. Dynam., 14, 729–761, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-14-729-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-14-729-2026, 2026
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Climate change increases landslide risk in cold regions. We analyzed 12 years of GPS, borehole, water, and seismic data from two landslides in Arctic Norway, one with permafrost and one without. Both accelerate in spring and autumn due to water infiltration. One slip zone shows increasing snowmelt sensitivity while seismic data reveal seasonal stiffness changes. Results advance understanding of water-driven landslide dynamics in Arctic climates.
Anna-Maria Virkkala, Isabel Wargowsky, Judith Vogt, McKenzie A. Kuhn, Simran Madaan, Tiffany Windholz, Kyle A. Arndt, Gerard Rocher-Ros, Mathias Göckede, David Olefeldt, Edward A. G. Schuur, David Bastviken, Richard O'Keefe, Brendan M. Rogers, Jennifer D. Watts, Kelcy Kent, Kristoffer Aalstad, Kelly Aho, Joonatan Ala-Könni, Haley Alcock, Inge Althuizen, Christopher D. Arp, Jun Asanuma, Mika Aurela, Sivakiruthika Balathandayuthabani, Katrin Attermeyer, Alan Barr, Maialen Barret, Ochirbat Batkhishig, Christina Biasi, Mats P. Björkman, Andrew Black, Elena Blanc-Betes, Pascal Bodmer, Julia Boike, Abdullah Bolek, Frédéric Bouchard, Ingeborg Bussmann, Lea Cabrol, Eleonora Canfora, Sean Carey, Karel Castro-Morales, Namyi Chae, Andreas Christen, Torben R. Christensen, Casper T. Christiansen, Housen Chu, Graham Clark, Francois Clayer, Patrick Crill, Christopher Cunada, Scott J. Davidson, Joshua F. Dean, Sigrid Dengel, Matteo Detto, Catherine Dieleman, Florent Domine, Egor Dyukarev, Colin Edgar, Bo Elberling, Craig A. Emmerton, Eugenie Euskirchen, Grant Falvo, Thomas Friborg, Michelle Garneau, Mariasilvia Giamberini, Mikhail V. Glagolev, Miquel A. Gonzalez-Meler, Gustaf Granath, Jón Guðmundsson, Konsta Happonen, Yoshinobu Harazono, Lorna Harris, Josh Hashemi, Nicholas Hasson, Janna Heerah, Liam Heffernan, Manuel Helbig, Warren Helgason, Michal Heliasz, Greg Henry, Geert Hensgens, Tetsuya Hiyama, Beth Holmes, Macall Hock, David Holl, Jutta Holst, Thomas Holst, Gabriel Hould-Gosselin, Elyn Humphreys, Jacqueline Hung, Jussi Huotari, Hiroki Ikawa, Danil V. Ilyasov, Mamoru Ishikawa, Go Iwahana, Hiroki Iwata, Marcin Antoni Jackowicz-Korczynski, Joachim Jansen, Järvi Järveoja, Vincent E. J. Jassey, Rasmus Jensen, Katharina Jentzsch, Robert G. Jespersen, Carl-Fredrik Johannesson, Cheristy P. Jones, Anders Jonsson, Ji Young Jung, Sari Juutinen, Evan Kane, Jan Karlsson, Sergey Karsanaev, Kuno Kasak, Julia Kelly, Kasha Kempton, Marcus Klaus, George W. Kling, Natascha Kljun, Jacqueline Knutson, Hideki Kobayashi, John Kochendorfer, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Pasi Kolari, Mika Korkiakoski, Aino Korrensalo, Pirkko Kortelainen, Egle Koster, Kajar Koster, Ayumi Kotani, Praveena Krishnan, Juliya Kurbatova, Lars Kutzbach, Min Jung Kwon, Ethan D. Kyzivat, Jessica Lagroix, Theodore Langhorst, Elena Lapshina, Tuula Larmola, Klaus S. Larsen, Isabelle Laurion, Justin Ledman, Hanna Lee, A. Joshua Leffler, Lance Lesack, Anders Lindroth, David Lipson, Annalea Lohila, Efrén López-Blanco, Vincent L. St. Louis, Erik Lundin, Miska Luoto, Takashi Machimura, Marta Magnani, Avni Malhotra, Marja Maljanen, Ivan Mammarella, Elisa Männistö, Luca Belelli Marchesini, Phil Marsh, Pertti J. Martikainen, Maija E. Marushchak, Mikhail Mastepanov, Alex Mavrovic, Trofim Maximov, Christina Minions, Daniel F. Nadeau, Marco Montemayor, Tomoaki Morishita, Patrick Murphy, Erin Nicholls, Mats B. Nilsson, Anastasia Niyazova, Jenni Nordén, Koffi Dodji Noumonvi, Hannu Nykänen, Walter Oechel, Anne Ojala, Tomohiro Okadera, Sujan Pal, Alexey V. Panov, Tim Papakyriakou, Dario Papale, Sang-Jong Park, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Gilberto Pastorello, Mike Peacock, Matthias Peichl, Roman Petrov, Kyra St. Pierre, Norbert Pirk, Jessica Plein, Vilmantas Preskienis, Anatoly Prokushkin, Jukka Pumpanen, Hilary A. Rains, Niklas Rakos, Aleksi Räsänen, Helena Rautakoski, Riikka Rinnan, Janne Rinne, Adrian Rocha, Nigel Roulet, Alexandre Roy, Anna Rutgersson, Aleksandr F. Sabrekov, Torsten Sachs, Erik Sahlée, Alejandro Salazar, Henrique Oliveira Sawakuchi, Christopher Schulze, Roger Seco, Armando Sepulveda-Jauregui, Svetlana Serikova, Abbey Serrone, Hanna M. Silvennoinen, Sofie Sjogersten, June Skeeter, Jo Snöälv, Sebastian Sobek, Oliver Sonnentag, Emily H. Stanley, Maria Strack, Lena Strom, Patrick Sullivan, Ryan Sullivan, Anna Sytiuk, Torbern Tagesson, Pierre Taillardat, Julie Talbot, Suzanne E. Tank, Mario Tenuta, Irina Terenteva, Frederic Thalasso, Antoine Thiboult, Halldor Thorgeirsson, Fenix Garcia Tigreros, Margaret Torn, Amy Townsend-Small, Claire Treat, Alain Tremblay, Carlo Trotta, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Merritt Turetsky, Masahito Ueyama, Muhammad Umair, Aki Vähä, Lona van Delden, Maarten van Hardenbroek, Andrej Varlagin, Ruth K. Varner, Tarmo Virtanen, Elena Veretennikova, Timo Vesala, Carolina Voigt, Jorien E. Vonk, Robert Wagner, Katey Walter Anthony, Qinxue Wang, Masataka Watanabe, Hailey Webb, Jeffrey M. Welker, Andreas Westergaard-Nielsen, Sebastian Westermann, Jeffrey R. White, Christian Wille, Scott N. Williamson, Scott Zolkos, Donatella Zona, and Susan M. Natali
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 6357–6409, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-6357-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-6357-2026, 2026
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This dataset includes monthly measurements of carbon dioxide and methane exchange between land, water, and the atmosphere from over 1000 sites in Arctic and boreal regions. It combines measurements from a variety of ecosystems, including wetlands, forests, tundra, lakes, and rivers, gathered by over 260 researchers from 1984–2024. This dataset can be used to improve and reduce uncertainty in carbon budgets in order to strengthen our understanding of climate feedbacks in a warming world.
Xiaoying Shi, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Yaoping Wang, Joe R. Melton, Fortunat Joos, Yiqi Luo, Xiaofeng Xu, Dafeng Hui, Qianlai Zhuang, Chunjing Qiu, Hongxing He, Siya Shao, Xingjie Lu, Yongjiu Dai, Akihiko Ito, Qing Sun, Nitin Chaudhary, Ayesha Hussain, Mousong Wu, Jian Zhou, Jingwei Zhang, Ye Yuan, Rachael H. Turton, Eleanor J. Burke, Jiafu Mao, Yuefeng Hao, Natalie A. Griffiths, Verity Salmon, Paul J. Hanson, Melanie A. Mayes, and Peter E. Thornton
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5193, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5193, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
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Northern peatlands store vast amounts of carbon, but their response to climate change remains uncertain. We compared 15 ecosystem models with observations from a long-term warming and elevated carbon dioxide experiment in Minnesota. Models differed widely in their carbon responses, reflecting differences in ecosystem processes and model parameters. The results identify priorities for improving peatland models and projections of future carbon–climate feedbacks.
Annabeth McCall, Martin Hieronymi, P. Paul Overduin, Lisa Bröder, Julie Lattaud, Rüdiger Röttgers, Irina Overeem, Anne Morgenstern, Guido Grosse, and Bennet Juhls
Biogeosciences, 23, 5921–5942, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-5921-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-5921-2026, 2026
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This study examines how carbon and sediments move from the Mackenzie River, through its delta, and into the Beaufort Sea. We use data from 2009–2024 and show that major changes in carbon concentrations unfold in low-salinity mixing zones. As the optical properties of the water also shift, satellite estimates of carbon will require more tailored methods. These findings will improve our understanding of Arctic carbon fluxes and influences on the greater Arctic Ocean carbon budget.
Tamara Mathys, Sergey S. Marchenko, Sebastian Westermann, Luke Gregor, Léo C. P. Martin, Murataly Duishonakunov, Christian Hauck, Mohammad Farzamian, Teddi Herring, Christin Hilbich, Ruslan Kenzhebaev, Mukhammad Esenaman uulu, Timur Musaev, Zhoodarbeshim Bektursunov, Ryskul Usubaliev, Isabella Brining, Tomas Saks, and Martin Hoelzle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2756, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2756, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth Surface Dynamics (ESurf).
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CryoGrid simulations constrained by geophysical and borehole data were used to assess permafrost thermal conditions and thaw depth in the Inner Tien Shan (Kyrgyzstan) at 30 m resolution. Surface-type-specific stratigraphies derived from geophysical surveys improved representation of subsurface heterogeneity. Results indicate widespread but spatially variable permafrost, with evidence of approximately 1 °C warming since the 1980s and increasing thaw depths.
Johnny Rutherford, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Georgina Wooley, Julia Boike, and Alex J. Cannon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3363, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3363, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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The Arctic is warming rapidly, threatening to release vast carbon stores from frozen soils. Climate models consistently misrepresent Arctic snow, causing soils to appear artificially cold. We used a random forest model to better predict winter snow density and fed these improved estimates into a widely used climate model which raised projected soil temperatures by up to 7 °C, suggesting current forecasts of soil temperature and carbon release are likely underestimated.
Hannah Zoller, Steven J. Lade, C. Kendra Gotangco Gonzales, Ingo Fetzer, Nitin Chaudhary, and Juan C. Rocha
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3452, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3452, 2026
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Human pressures on one Earth system component typically entail second-order effects on other components. The strength of such effects can show a high spatial variation and corresponding studies often report them by climate- or vegetation zone. We systematically compare the ability of different Earth partitions to capture the spatial pattern of second-order effects. Our results provide a reference point and highlight the risk of information loss inherent in commonly used aggregation approaches.
Liss Marie Andreassen, Ketil Isaksen, Lukas J. Monrad-Krohn, Jogscha M. Abderhalden, Luc Girod, Jessica De Marco, Bernd Etzelmüller, Simon Oldani, and Rune Strand Ødegård
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3152, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3152, 2026
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Juvfonne is a small ice patch and contains the oldest ice dated in Norway so far. Juvfonne prevails due to drifting snow and can fill up after years with surface lowering. However, the reduction in area and volume over the period 2010–2025 reveal that Juvfonne is vulnerable to the current warming. Ice thickness measurements conducted in September 2025 reveal a current maximum thickness of less than 9 meters and an interpolated mean thickness of < 3 meters.
Joana Baptista, Sebastian Westermann, and Gonçalo Vieira
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1914, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1914, 2026
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Permafrost underlies most ice-free areas of the Antarctic Peninsula being crucial for ecosystems. Yet its response to climate warming is uncertain. Using the CryoGrid Community Model at five PERMANTAR observatories, we simulated past and future permafrost evolution. Results revealed a warming of 0.22 °C dec⁻¹ since 1950–2020 and a progressive degradation under all CMIP6 scenarios, with positive MAGTs at 20 m depth before 2100, driven by elevation, snow cover, and ocean–atmosphere interactions.
Lutz Schirrmeister, Nikita Demidov, Vasily Demidov, Paul Overduin, Walter Schirrmeister, Diana Soloveva, Sergey Verkulich, and Sebastian Wetterich
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1377, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1377, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Based on permafrost core and exposure data, three main stages of landscape dynamics could be identified for the study region in the coastal areas of Isfjord and Grønfjord, and the Grøndalen and Hollendardalen valleys. Our research indicates spatial and temporal changes in landscape dynamics and permafrost conditions driven by deglaciation, climate, and sea-level changes. The present study provides insights into the response of permafrost to Late Glacial and Holocene environmental changes.
Ruitang Yang, Lizz Ultee, Kristoffer Aalstad, Matvey V. Debolskiy, Regine Hock, Patrick Schmitt, David Rounce, and Tian Li
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1081, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1081, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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We present a new framework to model frontal ablation of marine-terminating glaciers by linking two global glacier models with a simple physics-based calving scheme and Bayesian calibration. Applied to 71 Svalbard glaciers (2000–2019) and projected to 2100, it reproduces seasonal front changes but overestimates ablation due to uncertain geometry and velocity. This efficient approach can improve regional to global simulations.
Esther Karin Bender, Matvey Debolskiy, Kjetil Aas, Sebastian Westermann, Fang Li, Jiawen Zhu, and Hanna Lee
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1039, 2026
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This paper introduces a new method to represent ice-rich permafrost soils in the Community Land Model used for climate prediction. The approach includes key processes previously missing, enabling simulation of rapid thaw events from ground-ice melt. It improves representation of soil temperature, hydrology, and landscape dynamics, leading to more accurate future greenhouse-gas estimates.
Feras Abdulsamad, Josué Bock, Florence Magnin, Emmanuel Malet, André Revil, Matan Ben-Asher, Jessy Richard, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Marios Karaoulis, Thomas Condom, Ludovic Ravanel, and Philip Deline
The Cryosphere, 20, 2181–2207, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2181-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2181-2026, 2026
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Permafrost dynamics at Aiguille du Midi in the French Alps was investigated using Automated Electrical Resistivity Tomography (A-ERT) during four years. A-ERT reveals seasonal and multi-year permafrost changes. Temperatures estimated using resistivity measurements provide a good agreement with measured temperature in borehole in frozen zone. Variations in active layer thickness across different faces were observed, along with a slight decrease in permafrost resistivity suggesting warming.
Matan Ben-Asher, Antoine Chabas, Jean-Yves Josnin, Josué Bock, Emmanuel Malet, Amaël Poulain, Yves Perrette, and Florence Magnin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 1735–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1735-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1735-2026, 2026
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We studied how water moves through fractured rock walls in a high mountain area in the Alps. Using sensors and tracers over two years, in a high-altitude site, we tracked where the water came from and when it flowed. Most of it came from melting snow, but some came from rain and older ice. The results show that heat and water flow can speed up the melting of frozen ground, which may affect mountain stability. This helps us understand how climate change influences these fragile environments.
Tazio Strozzi, Erik Schytt Mannerfelt, Oliver Cartus, Maurizio Santoro, Thomas Schellenberger, and Andreas Kääb
The Cryosphere, 20, 1679–1697, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1679-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1679-2026, 2026
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By analysing 30 years of satellite SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) data, we have found that the number of glacier surges over Svalbard has tripled since 2015. We show that this increase is unlikely to be explained solely by improvements in data quality or by random fluctuations in surge frequency, suggesting that this trend is caused by an external forcing mechanism. Given our incomplete understanding of surge initiation, the cause of the observed threefold increase remains however uncertain.
Hong Yang, Simone Maria Stuenzi, Yanqiu Xing, Fulai Feng, and Moritz Langer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-870, 2026
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Boreal forests store large amounts of carbon, yet it is unclear how thawing permafrost will affect their role in slowing climate change. Many models do not fully capture how frozen soils warm and alter water supply for plants. We improved a vegetation model to better represent soil processes and tested it in Northeast China. The updated model more accurately reproduced soil conditions and carbon storage, showing that thaw-related warming and drying can reduce carbon uptake and alter forests.
Anfisa Pismeniuk, Peter Dörsch, Mats Ippach, Clarissa Willmes, Sunniva Sheffield, Norbert Pirk, and Sebastian Westermann
Biogeosciences, 23, 1497–1514, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-1497-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-1497-2026, 2026
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Thermokarst ponds in high latitudes are important methane (CH4) sources in summer. Meanwhile, these ponds are ice-covered for around 60 % of the year and can accumulate CH4 in the ice and within the underlying water column, which potentially results in high emissions during the ice-off. Here, we present data on wintertime CH4 storage of ponds located within two peat plateaus in Northern Norway. Our results show that the wintertime CH4 storage can contribute up to 40 % to the annual CH4 budget.
Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Luca Alexander Müller-Ißberner, Elisabeth Dietze, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 22, 377–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-377-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-377-2026, 2026
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Using model simulations, we show that the larger temperature seasonality of the mid Holocene and the last interglacial climates led to marked surficial permafrost thaw during warm summers, while cold winters allowed for permafrost persistence at depth. We argue that past interglacial climates have limited suitability as analogues for future permafrost dynamics, for which we anticipate a trajectory of unprecedented thaw magnitude since at least MIS (Marine Isotope Stage) 11c.
Lotte Wendt, Line Rouyet, Hanne H. Christiansen, Tom Rune Lauknes, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 20, 1179–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1179-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1179-2026, 2026
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In permafrost environments, the ground surface moves due to the formation and melt of ice in the ground. This study compares ground surface displacements measured from satellite images against field data of ground ice contents. We find good agreement between the detected seasonal subsidence and observed ground ice melt. Our results show the potential of satellite remote sensing for mapping ground ice variability, but also indicate that ice in excess of the pore space must be considered.
Robin B. Zweigel, Dashtseren Avirmed, Khurelbaatar Temuujin, Clare Webster, Hanna Lee, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 20, 1001–1023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1001-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1001-2026, 2026
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Two years of data along a forest disturbance gradient in Mongolia show a larger annual ground surface temperature range in dead and logged forests than intact forest, while the range is dampened in stands of young regrowth. Compared to intact forest, mean annual ground surface temperatures are 0.5 °C colder in dead and logged forest and dense stands of young regrowth. This is linked to differences in vegetation and surface cover due to the disturbance and patterns in livestock activity.
Esteban Alonso-González, Adrian Harpold, Jessica D. Lundquist, Cara Piske, Laura Sourp, Kristoffer Aalstad, and Simon Gascoin
The Cryosphere, 20, 209–225, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-209-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-209-2026, 2026
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Simulating the snowpack is challenging, as there are several sources of uncertainty due to e.g. the meteorological forcing. Using data assimilation techniques, it is possible to improve the simulations by fusing models and snow observations. However in forests, observations are difficult to obtain, because they cannot be retrieved through the canopy. Here, we explore the possibility of propagating the information obtained in forest clearings to areas covered by the canopy.
Pauline Walz, Oliver Fritz, Sabrina Marx, Marlin M. Mueller, Christian Thiel, Josefine Lenz, Soraya Kaiser, Roxanne Frappier, Alexander Zipf, and Moritz Langer
The Cryosphere, 19, 6355–6379, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6355-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6355-2025, 2025
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We explored how citizen scientists can help map changes in Arctic landscapes. Using a web tool we created, more than 100 volunteers contributed the approximate center points of particular ground patterns called ice-wedge polygons in aerial images from Alaska and Canada. Our work shows that the data created by volunteers can be used to reconstruct ice-wedge polygon networks and provide valuable insights on the state of frozen ground in the Arctic.
Titouan Biget, Fanny Brun, Walter Immerzeel, Léo Martin, Hamish Pritchard, Emily Collier, Yanbin Lei, and Tandong Yao
The Cryosphere, 19, 5863–5870, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5863-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5863-2025, 2025
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This study explore the precipitation in the southern Tibetan plateau using the water pressure of an high altitude lake and meteorological models and shows that snowfall could be much stronger on the Plateau than what is predicted by the models.
Henning Åkesson, Kamilla Hauknes Sjursen, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Thorben Dunse, Liss Marie Andreassen, Mette Kusk Gillespie, Benjamin Aubrey Robson, Thomas Schellenberger, and Jacob Clement Yde
The Cryosphere, 19, 5871–5902, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5871-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5871-2025, 2025
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We model the historical and future evolution of the Jostedalsbreen ice cap in Norway, projecting substantial and largely irreversible mass loss for the 21st century, and that the ice cap will split into three parts. Further mass loss is in the pipeline, with a disappearance during the 22nd century under high emissions. Our study demonstrates an approach to model complex ice masses, highlights uncertainties due to precipitation, and calls for further research on long-term future glacier change.
Giulia Blandini, Francesco Avanzi, Lorenzo Campo, Simone Gabellani, Kristoffer Aalstad, Manuela Girotto, Satoru Yamaguchi, Hiroyuki Hirashima, and Luca Ferraris
The Cryosphere, 19, 4759–4783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4759-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4759-2025, 2025
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Reliable snow water equivalent and snow depth estimates are key for water management in snow regions. To tackle computational challenges in data assimilation, we propose a Long Short-Term Memory neural network for operational use in snow hydrology. Once trained, it reduces computational cost by 70 percent compared to the Ensemble Kalman Filter, with a slight decrease in performances. This deep learning approach provides a scalable, efficient, and cost-effective modeling solution for hydrology.
Alexandru Onaca, Flavius Sîrbu, Valentin Poncoş, Christin Hilbich, Tazio Strozzi, Petru Urdea, Răzvan Popescu, Oana Berzescu, Bernd Etzelmüller, Alfred Vespremeanu-Stroe, Mirela Vasile, Delia Teleagă, Dan Birtaş, Iosif Lopătiţă, Simon Filhol, Alexandru Hegyi, and Florina Ardelean
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 981–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-981-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-981-2025, 2025
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This study establishes a methodology for the study of slow-moving rock glaciers in marginal permafrost and provides the basic knowledge for understanding rock glaciers in South East Europe. By using a combination of different methods (remote sensing, geophysical survey, thermal measurements), we found out that, on the transitional rock glaciers, low ground ice content (i.e. below 20 %) produces horizontal displacements of up to 3 cm per year.
Clarissa Willmes, Kristoffer Aalstad, and Sebastian Westermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3142, 2025
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In permafrost areas, the spatial variability of the snow cover significantly affects the ground thermal regime. This study presents an algorithm that integrates satellite data into a permafrost model to enhance the spatial detail of ground temperature simulations. At a site on Svalbard, the algorithm improves simulations of ground temperatures especially for wind-blown ridges with little snow, as well as snow-drift sites.
Marco Mazzolini, Kristoffer Aalstad, Esteban Alonso-González, Sebastian Westermann, and Désirée Treichler
The Cryosphere, 19, 3831–3848, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3831-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3831-2025, 2025
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In this work, we showcase the use the satellite laser altimeter ICESat-2, which is able to retrieve snow depth in areas where snow amounts are still poorly estimated despite the importance of these water resources. We can update snow models with these observations through algorithms that spatially propagate the information beyond the satellite profiles. The positive results show the potential of the approach to improve snow simulations, in terms of average snow depth and spatial distribution.
Izabella A. Baisheva, Birgit Heim, Jorge García Molinos, Amelie Stieg, Hanno Meyer, Ramesh Glückler, Kathleen R. Stoof-Leichsenring, Antje Eulenburg, Pier Paul Overduin, Evgenii S. Zakharov, Aital V. Egorov, Paraskovya V. Davydova, Lena A. Ushnitskaya, Sardana N. Levina, Ruslan M. Gorodnichev, Robert Jackisch, Antonie Haas, Stefan Kruse, Luidmila A. Pestryakova, and Ulrike Herzschuh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4114, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4114, 2025
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Our study provides a new comprehensive assessment of the limnological state of 66 lakes in the Central Yakutian alaas landscapes and the Verkhoyansk mountain range. Our analyses suggest that specific lake-type properties within the thermokarst lake sequence seem to drive inorganic, organic, and isotopic lake hydrochemistry. Future warming may lead to less diversification within lake macrophyte assemblages in old alaas lakes.
Joana Pedro Baptista, Gonçalo Brito Guapo Teles Vieira, António Manuel de Carvalho Soares Correia, Hyoungseok Lee, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 19, 3459–3476, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3459-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3459-2025, 2025
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Permafrost underlies ice-free areas of Antarctica, but its response to long-term warming is unclear due to a limited number of monitoring sites. To address this, we used the CryoGrid model, forced with climate data, to estimate permafrost temperatures and active layer thickness at King Sejong Station since 1950. The results show ground temperatures rising 0.25 °C per decade and the active layer thickening by 2 m. Warming has accelerated since 2015, highlighting the need for continued monitoring.
Alouette van Hove, Kristoffer Aalstad, Vibeke Lind, Claudia Arndt, Vincent Odongo, Rodolfo Ceriani, Francesco Fava, John Hulth, and Norbert Pirk
Biogeosciences, 22, 4163–4186, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-4163-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-4163-2025, 2025
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Research on methane emissions from African livestock is limited. We used a probabilistic method fusing drone and flux tower observations with an atmospheric model to estimate emissions from various herds. This approach proved robust under non-stationary wind conditions and effective in estimating emissions as low as 100 g h-1. We also detected spectral anomalies in satellite data associated with the herds. Our method can be used for diverse point sources, thereby improving emission inventories.
Hannah Zoller, Steven J. Lade, C. Kendra Gotangco Gonzales, Ingo Fetzer, Nitin Chaudhary, and Juan C. Rocha
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3341, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3341, 2025
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In order to assess the full impact of local human pressures on critical Earth system processes, it is crucial to take account of their biophysical interplay. We provide spatially resolved world maps of interaction strength between the processes of change in carbon dioxide concentration, natural vegetation cover, and surface water runoff. A comparison of the resulting global pattern to established natural partitions of the Earth reveals the risks of current aggregation approaches.
Mehriban Aliyeva, Michael Angelopoulos, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, Frederieke Miesner, Scott Dallimore, Dustin Whalen, Lukas U. Arenson, and Pier Paul Overduin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2675, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2675, 2025
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In this study, we investigate the ongoing transformation of terrestrial permafrost into subsea permafrost on a rapidly eroding Arctic island using electrical resistivity tomography and numerical modelling. We draw on 60 years of shoreline data to support our findings. This work is important for understanding permafrost loss in Arctic coastal areas and for guiding future efforts to protect vulnerable shorelines.
Jacqueline K. Knutson, François Clayer, Peter Dörsch, Sebastian Westermann, and Heleen A. de Wit
Biogeosciences, 22, 3899–3914, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3899-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3899-2025, 2025
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Thawing permafrost at Iškoras in northern Norway is transforming peat plateaus into thermokarst ponds and wetlands. These small ponds show striking oversaturation of dissolved greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), partly owing to organic matter processing. Streams nearby emit CO2, driven by turbulence. As permafrost disappears, carbon dynamics will change, potentially increasing emissions of CH4. This study highlights the need to integrate these changes into climate models.
Diego Cusicanqui, Pascal Lacroix, Xavier Bodin, Benjamin Aubrey Robson, Andreas Kääb, and Shelley MacDonell
The Cryosphere, 19, 2559–2581, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2559-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2559-2025, 2025
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This study presents a robust methodological approach to detect and analyse rock glacier kinematics using Landsat 7/Landsat 8 imagery. In the semiarid Andes, 382 landforms were monitored, showing an average velocity of 0.37 ± 0.07 m yr⁻¹ over 24 years, with rock glaciers moving 23 % faster. Results demonstrate the feasibility of using medium-resolution optical imagery, combined with radar interferometry, to monitor rock glacier kinematics with widely available satellite datasets.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
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The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Thomas James Barnes, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Karianne Staalesen Lilleøren, and Louise Steffensen Schmidt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-108, 2025
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Ribbed moraines are a common, but poorly understood landform within formerly glaciated regions. There are many competing theories for their formation. As such, this paper addresses some of these theories by taking modelled ice conditions and physical characteristics of the landscapes in which they form and, then comparing them to the location of ribbed moraines. Using this we can identify conditions where ribbed moraines are more often present, and therefore we identify the most likely theories.
Ephraim Erkens, Michael Angelopoulos, Jens Tronicke, Scott R. Dallimore, Dustin Whalen, Julia Boike, and Pier Paul Overduin
The Cryosphere, 19, 997–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-997-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-997-2025, 2025
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We investigate the depth of subsea permafrost formed by inundation of terrestrial permafrost due to marine transgression around the rapidly disappearing, permafrost-cored Tuktoyaktuk Island (Beaufort Sea, NWT, Canada). We use geoelectrical surveys with floating electrodes to identify the boundary between unfrozen and frozen sediment. Our findings indicate that permafrost thaw depths beneath the seabed can be explained by coastal erosion rates and landscape features before inundation.
Bennet Juhls, Anne Morgenstern, Jens Hölemann, Antje Eulenburg, Birgit Heim, Frederieke Miesner, Hendrik Grotheer, Gesine Mollenhauer, Hanno Meyer, Ephraim Erkens, Felica Yara Gehde, Sofia Antonova, Sergey Chalov, Maria Tereshina, Oxana Erina, Evgeniya Fingert, Ekaterina Abramova, Tina Sanders, Liudmila Lebedeva, Nikolai Torgovkin, Georgii Maksimov, Vasily Povazhnyi, Rafael Gonçalves-Araujo, Urban Wünsch, Antonina Chetverova, Sophie Opfergelt, and Pier Paul Overduin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1–28, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1-2025, 2025
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The Siberian Arctic is warming fast: permafrost is thawing, river chemistry is changing, and coastal ecosystems are affected. We aimed to understand changes in the Lena River, a major Arctic river flowing to the Arctic Ocean, by collecting 4.5 years of detailed water data, including temperature and carbon and nutrient contents. This dataset records current conditions and helps us to detect future changes. Explore it at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.913197 and https://lena-monitoring.awi.de/.
Tabea Rettelbach, Ingmar Nitze, Inge Grünberg, Jennika Hammar, Simon Schäffler, Daniel Hein, Matthias Gessner, Tilman Bucher, Jörg Brauchle, Jörg Hartmann, Torsten Sachs, Julia Boike, and Guido Grosse
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5767–5798, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5767-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5767-2024, 2024
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Permafrost landscapes in the Arctic are rapidly changing due to climate warming. Here, we publish aerial images and elevation models with very high spatial detail that help study these landscapes in northwestern Canada and Alaska. The images were collected using the Modular Aerial Camera System (MACS). This dataset has significant implications for understanding permafrost landscape dynamics in response to climate change. It is publicly available for further research.
Cas Renette, Mats Olvmo, Sofia Thorsson, Björn Holmer, and Heather Reese
The Cryosphere, 18, 5465–5480, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5465-2024, 2024
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We used a drone to monitor seasonal changes in the height of subarctic permafrost mounds (palsas). With five drone flights in 1 year, we found a seasonal fluctuation of ca. 15 cm as a result of freeze–thaw cycles. On one mound, a large area sank down between each flight as a result of permafrost thaw. The approach of using repeated high-resolution scans from such a drone is unique for such environments and highlights its effectiveness in capturing the subtle dynamics of permafrost landscapes.
Robin Benjamin Zweigel, Avirmed Dashtseren, Khurelbaatar Temuujin, Anarmaa Sharkhuu, Clare Webster, Hanna Lee, and Sebastian Westermann
Biogeosciences, 21, 5059–5077, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5059-2024, 2024
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Intense grazing at grassland sites removes vegetation, reduces the snow cover, and inhibits litter layers from forming. Grazed sites generally have a larger annual ground surface temperature amplitude than ungrazed sites, but the net effect depends on effects in the transitional seasons. Our results also suggest that seasonal use of pastures can reduce ground temperatures, which can be a strategy to protect currently degrading grassland permafrost.
Sigrid Trier Kjær, Sebastian Westermann, Nora Nedkvitne, and Peter Dörsch
Biogeosciences, 21, 4723–4737, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4723-2024, 2024
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Permafrost peatlands are thawing due to climate change, releasing large quantities of carbon that degrades upon thawing and is released as CO2, CH4 or dissolved organic carbon (DOC). We incubated thawed Norwegian permafrost peat plateaus and thermokarst pond sediment found next to permafrost for up to 350 d to measure carbon loss. CO2 production was initially the highest, whereas CH4 production increased over time. The largest carbon loss was measured at the top of the peat plateau core as DOC.
Juditha Aga, Livia Piermattei, Luc Girod, Kristoffer Aalstad, Trond Eiken, Andreas Kääb, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1049–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1049-2024, 2024
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Coastal rock cliffs on Svalbard are considered to be fairly stable; however, long-term trends in coastal-retreat rates remain unknown. This study examines changes in the coastline position along Brøggerhalvøya, Svalbard, using aerial images from 1970, 1990, 2010, and 2021. Our analysis shows that coastal-retreat rates accelerate during the period 2010–2021, which coincides with increasing storminess and retreating sea ice.
Soraya Kaiser, Julia Boike, Guido Grosse, and Moritz Langer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3719–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3719-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3719-2024, 2024
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Arctic warming, leading to permafrost degradation, poses primary threats to infrastructure and secondary ecological hazards from possible infrastructure failure. Our study created a comprehensive Alaska inventory combining various data sources with which we improved infrastructure classification and data on contaminated sites. This resource is presented as a GeoPackage allowing planning of infrastructure damage and possible implications for Arctic communities facing permafrost challenges.
Livia Piermattei, Michael Zemp, Christian Sommer, Fanny Brun, Matthias H. Braun, Liss M. Andreassen, Joaquín M. C. Belart, Etienne Berthier, Atanu Bhattacharya, Laura Boehm Vock, Tobias Bolch, Amaury Dehecq, Inés Dussaillant, Daniel Falaschi, Caitlyn Florentine, Dana Floricioiu, Christian Ginzler, Gregoire Guillet, Romain Hugonnet, Matthias Huss, Andreas Kääb, Owen King, Christoph Klug, Friedrich Knuth, Lukas Krieger, Jeff La Frenierre, Robert McNabb, Christopher McNeil, Rainer Prinz, Louis Sass, Thorsten Seehaus, David Shean, Désirée Treichler, Anja Wendt, and Ruitang Yang
The Cryosphere, 18, 3195–3230, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3195-2024, 2024
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Satellites have made it possible to observe glacier elevation changes from all around the world. In the present study, we compared the results produced from two different types of satellite data between different research groups and against validation measurements from aeroplanes. We found a large spread between individual results but showed that the group ensemble can be used to reliably estimate glacier elevation changes and related errors from satellite data.
Coline Bouchayer, Ugo Nanni, Pierre-Marie Lefeuvre, John Hult, Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Jack Kohler, François Renard, and Thomas V. Schuler
The Cryosphere, 18, 2939–2968, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2939-2024, 2024
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We explore the interplay between surface runoff and subglacial conditions. We focus on Kongsvegen glacier in Svalbard. We drilled 350 m down to the glacier base to measure water pressure, till strength, seismic noise, and glacier surface velocity. In the low-melt season, the drainage system adapted gradually, while the high-melt season led to a transient response, exceeding drainage capacity and enhancing sliding. Our findings contribute to discussions on subglacial hydro-mechanical processes.
Thomas J. Barnes, Thomas V. Schuler, Simon Filhol, and Karianne S. Lilleøren
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 801–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-801-2024, 2024
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In this paper, we use machine learning to automatically outline landforms based on their characteristics. We test several methods to identify the most accurate and then proceed to develop the most accurate to improve its accuracy further. We manage to outline landforms with 65 %–75 % accuracy, at a resolution of 10 m, thanks to high-quality/high-resolution elevation data. We find that it is possible to run this method at a country scale to quickly produce landform inventories for future studies.
Daniel Kwakye, Sabrina Marx, Benjamin Herfort, Moritz Langer, and Sven Lautenbach
AGILE GIScience Ser., 5, 34, https://doi.org/10.5194/agile-giss-5-34-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/agile-giss-5-34-2024, 2024
Frederieke Miesner, William Lambert Cable, Pier Paul Overduin, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 18, 2603–2611, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2603-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2603-2024, 2024
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The temperature in the sediment below Arctic lakes determines the stability of the permafrost and microbial activity. However, measurements are scarce because of the remoteness. We present a robust and portable device to fill this gap. Test campaigns have demonstrated its utility in a range of environments during winter and summer. The measured temperatures show a great variability within and across locations. The data can be used to validate models and estimate potential emissions.
Marco Marcer, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Soňa Tomaškovičová, Steffen Ringsø Nielsen, André Revil, and Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen
The Cryosphere, 18, 1753–1771, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1753-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1753-2024, 2024
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This study models present and future rock wall temperatures in the mountains near Sisimiut, creating knowledge on mountain permafrost in Greenland for the first time. Bedrock is mostly frozen but also has temperatures near 0 oC, making it very sensitive to climate changes. Future climatic scenarios indicate a reduction in frozen rock wall areas. Since mountain permafrost thaw is linked to an increase in landslides, these results call for more efforts addressing mountain permafrost in Greenland.
Victoria R. Dutch, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Oliver Sonnentag, Gabriel Hould Gosselin, Melody Sandells, Chris Derksen, Branden Walker, Gesa Meyer, Richard Essery, Richard Kelly, Phillip Marsh, Julia Boike, and Matteo Detto
Biogeosciences, 21, 825–841, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-825-2024, 2024
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We undertake a sensitivity study of three different parameters on the simulation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during the snow-covered non-growing season at an Arctic tundra site. Simulations are compared to eddy covariance measurements, with near-zero NEE simulated despite observed CO2 release. We then consider how to parameterise the model better in Arctic tundra environments on both sub-seasonal timescales and cumulatively throughout the snow-covered non-growing season.
Moritz Langer, Jan Nitzbon, Brian Groenke, Lisa-Marie Assmann, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Simone Maria Stuenzi, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 18, 363–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-363-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-363-2024, 2024
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Using a model that can simulate the evolution of Arctic permafrost over centuries to millennia, we find that post-industrialization permafrost warming has three "hotspots" in NE Canada, N Alaska, and W Siberia. The extent of near-surface permafrost has decreased substantially since 1850, with the largest area losses occurring in the last 50 years. The simulations also show that volcanic eruptions have in some cases counteracted the loss of near-surface permafrost for a few decades.
Soňa Tomaškovičová and Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen
The Cryosphere, 18, 321–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-321-2024, 2024
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We present the results of a fully coupled modeling framework for simulating the ground thermal regime using only surface measurements to calibrate the thermal model. The heat conduction model is forced by surface ground temperature measurements and calibrated using the field measurements of time lapse apparent electrical resistivity. The resistivity-calibrated thermal model achieves a performance comparable to the traditional calibration of borehole temperature measurements.
Andrea Spolaor, Federico Scoto, Catherine Larose, Elena Barbaro, Francois Burgay, Mats P. Bjorkman, David Cappelletti, Federico Dallo, Fabrizio de Blasi, Dmitry Divine, Giuliano Dreossi, Jacopo Gabrieli, Elisabeth Isaksson, Jack Kohler, Tonu Martma, Louise S. Schmidt, Thomas V. Schuler, Barbara Stenni, Clara Turetta, Bartłomiej Luks, Mathieu Casado, and Jean-Charles Gallet
The Cryosphere, 18, 307–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-307-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-307-2024, 2024
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We evaluate the impact of the increased snowmelt on the preservation of the oxygen isotope (δ18O) signal in firn records recovered from the top of the Holtedahlfonna ice field located in the Svalbard archipelago. Thanks to a multidisciplinary approach we demonstrate a progressive deterioration of the isotope signal in the firn core. We link the degradation of the δ18O signal to the increased occurrence and intensity of melt events associated with the rapid warming occurring in the archipelago.
Bernd Etzelmüller, Ketil Isaksen, Justyna Czekirda, Sebastian Westermann, Christin Hilbich, and Christian Hauck
The Cryosphere, 17, 5477–5497, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5477-2023, 2023
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Permafrost (permanently frozen ground) is widespread in the mountains of Norway and Iceland. Several boreholes were drilled after 1999 for long-term permafrost monitoring. We document a strong warming of permafrost, including the development of unfrozen bodies in the permafrost. Warming and degradation of mountain permafrost may lead to more natural hazards.
Esteban Alonso-González, Kristoffer Aalstad, Norbert Pirk, Marco Mazzolini, Désirée Treichler, Paul Leclercq, Sebastian Westermann, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, and Simon Gascoin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4637–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4637-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4637-2023, 2023
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Here we explore how to improve hyper-resolution (5 m) distributed snowpack simulations using sparse observations, which do not provide information from all the areas of the simulation domain. We propose a new way of propagating information throughout the simulations adapted to the hyper-resolution, which could also be used to improve simulations of other nature. The method has been implemented in an open-source data assimilation tool that is readily accessible to everyone.
Anatoly O. Sinitsyn, Sara Bazin, Rasmus Benestad, Bernd Etzelmüller, Ketil Isaksen, Hanne Kvitsand, Julia Lutz, Andrea L. Popp, Lena Rubensdotter, and Sebastian Westermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2950, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2950, 2023
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This study looked at under the ground on Svalbard, an archipelago close to the North Pole. We found something very surprising – there is water under the all year around frozen soil. This was not known before. This water could be used for drinking if we manage it carefully. This is important because getting clean drinking water is very difficult in Svalbard, and other Arctic places. Also, because the climate is getting warmer, there might be even more water underground in the future.
Jennika Hammar, Inge Grünberg, Steven V. Kokelj, Jurjen van der Sluijs, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 17, 5357–5372, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5357-2023, 2023
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Roads on permafrost have significant environmental effects. This study assessed the Inuvik to Tuktoyaktuk Highway (ITH) in Canada and its impact on snow accumulation, albedo and snowmelt timing. Our findings revealed that snow accumulation increased by up to 36 m from the road, 12-day earlier snowmelt within 100 m due to reduced albedo, and altered snowmelt patterns in seemingly undisturbed areas. Remote sensing aids in understanding road impacts on permafrost.
Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Michele Magni, Fanny Brun, Joel Fiddes, Yanbin Lei, Philip Kraaijenbrink, Tamara Mathys, Moritz Langer, Simon Allen, and Walter W. Immerzeel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4409–4436, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, 2023
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Across the Tibetan Plateau, many large lakes have been changing level during the last decades as a response to climate change. In high-mountain environments, water fluxes from the land to the lakes are linked to the ground temperature of the land and to the energy fluxes between the ground and the atmosphere, which are modified by climate change. With a numerical model, we test how these water and energy fluxes have changed over the last decades and how they influence the lake level variations.
Juditha Aga, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 4179–4206, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, 2023
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This study presents a new model scheme for simulating ice segregation and thaw consolidation in permafrost environments, depending on ground properties and climatic forcing. It is embedded in the CryoGrid community model, a land surface model for the terrestrial cryosphere. We describe the model physics and functionalities, followed by a model validation and a sensitivity study of controlling factors.
Matan Ben-Asher, Florence Magnin, Sebastian Westermann, Josué Bock, Emmanuel Malet, Johan Berthet, Ludovic Ravanel, and Philip Deline
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 899–915, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-899-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-899-2023, 2023
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Quantitative knowledge of water availability on high mountain rock slopes is very limited. We use a numerical model and field measurements to estimate the water balance at a steep rock wall site. We show that snowmelt is the main source of water at elevations >3600 m and that snowpack hydrology and sublimation are key factors. The new information presented here can be used to improve the understanding of thermal, hydrogeological, and mechanical processes on steep mountain rock slopes.
Brian Groenke, Moritz Langer, Jan Nitzbon, Sebastian Westermann, Guillermo Gallego, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 17, 3505–3533, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, 2023
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It is now well known from long-term temperature measurements that Arctic permafrost, i.e., ground that remains continuously frozen for at least 2 years, is warming in response to climate change. Temperature, however, only tells half of the story. In this study, we use computer modeling to better understand how the thawing and freezing of water in the ground affects the way permafrost responds to climate change and what temperature trends can and cannot tell us about how permafrost is changing.
Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Erin Emily Thomas, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 2941–2963, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2941-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2941-2023, 2023
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Here, we present high-resolution simulations of glacier mass balance (the gain and loss of ice over a year) and runoff on Svalbard from 1991–2022, one of the fastest warming regions in the Arctic. The simulations are created using the CryoGrid community model. We find a small overall loss of mass over the simulation period of −0.08 m yr−1 but with no statistically significant trend. The average runoff was found to be 41 Gt yr−1, with a significant increasing trend of 6.3 Gt per decade.
Zoé Rehder, Thomas Kleinen, Lars Kutzbach, Victor Stepanenko, Moritz Langer, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 20, 2837–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, 2023
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We use a new model to investigate how methane emissions from Arctic ponds change with warming. We find that emissions increase substantially. Under annual temperatures 5 °C above present temperatures, pond methane emissions are more than 3 times higher than now. Most of this increase is caused by an increase in plant productivity as plants provide the substrate microbes used to produce methane. We conclude that vegetation changes need to be included in predictions of pond methane emissions.
Justyna Czekirda, Bernd Etzelmüller, Sebastian Westermann, Ketil Isaksen, and Florence Magnin
The Cryosphere, 17, 2725–2754, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2725-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2725-2023, 2023
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We assess spatio-temporal permafrost variations in selected rock walls in Norway over the last 120 years. Ground temperature is modelled using the two-dimensional ground heat flux model CryoGrid 2D along nine profiles. Permafrost probably occurs at most sites. All simulations show increasing ground temperature from the 1980s. Our simulations show that rock wall permafrost with a temperature of −1 °C at 20 m depth could thaw at this depth within 50 years.
Andreas Kääb and Luc Girod
The Cryosphere, 17, 2533–2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2533-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2533-2023, 2023
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Following the detachment of the 130 × 106 m3 Sedongpu Glacier (south-eastern Tibet) in 2018, the Sedongpu Valley underwent massive large-volume landscape changes. An enormous volume of in total around 330 × 106 m3 was rapidly eroded, forming a new canyon of up to 300 m depth, 1 km width, and almost 4 km length. Such consequences of glacier change in mountains have so far not been considered at this magnitude and speed.
Norbert Pirk, Kristoffer Aalstad, Yeliz A. Yilmaz, Astrid Vatne, Andrea L. Popp, Peter Horvath, Anders Bryn, Ane Victoria Vollsnes, Sebastian Westermann, Terje Koren Berntsen, Frode Stordal, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Biogeosciences, 20, 2031–2047, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2031-2023, 2023
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We measured the land–atmosphere exchange of CO2 and water vapor in alpine Norway over 3 years. The extremely snow-rich conditions in 2020 reduced the total annual evapotranspiration to 50 % and reduced the growing-season carbon assimilation to turn the ecosystem from a moderate annual carbon sink to an even stronger source. Our analysis suggests that snow cover anomalies are driving the most consequential short-term responses in this ecosystem’s functioning.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Almudena García-García, Gerhard Krinner, Moritz Langer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Jan Nitzbon, Jian Peng, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Wim Thiery, Inne Vanderkelen, and Tonghua Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 609–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, 2023
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Climate change is caused by the accumulated heat in the Earth system, with the land storing the second largest amount of this extra heat. Here, new estimates of continental heat storage are obtained, including changes in inland-water heat storage and permafrost heat storage in addition to changes in ground heat storage. We also argue that heat gains in all three components should be monitored independently of their magnitude due to heat-dependent processes affecting society and ecosystems.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
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Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Martine Lizotte, Bennet Juhls, Atsushi Matsuoka, Philippe Massicotte, Gaëlle Mével, David Obie James Anikina, Sofia Antonova, Guislain Bécu, Marine Béguin, Simon Bélanger, Thomas Bossé-Demers, Lisa Bröder, Flavienne Bruyant, Gwénaëlle Chaillou, Jérôme Comte, Raoul-Marie Couture, Emmanuel Devred, Gabrièle Deslongchamps, Thibaud Dezutter, Miles Dillon, David Doxaran, Aude Flamand, Frank Fell, Joannie Ferland, Marie-Hélène Forget, Michael Fritz, Thomas J. Gordon, Caroline Guilmette, Andrea Hilborn, Rachel Hussherr, Charlotte Irish, Fabien Joux, Lauren Kipp, Audrey Laberge-Carignan, Hugues Lantuit, Edouard Leymarie, Antonio Mannino, Juliette Maury, Paul Overduin, Laurent Oziel, Colin Stedmon, Crystal Thomas, Lucas Tisserand, Jean-Éric Tremblay, Jorien Vonk, Dustin Whalen, and Marcel Babin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1617–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1617-2023, 2023
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Permafrost thaw in the Mackenzie Delta region results in the release of organic matter into the coastal marine environment. What happens to this carbon-rich organic matter as it transits along the fresh to salty aquatic environments is still underdocumented. Four expeditions were conducted from April to September 2019 in the coastal area of the Beaufort Sea to study the fate of organic matter. This paper describes a rich set of data characterizing the composition and sources of organic matter.
Ngai-Ham Chan, Moritz Langer, Bennet Juhls, Tabea Rettelbach, Paul Overduin, Kimberly Huppert, and Jean Braun
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 259–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-259-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-259-2023, 2023
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Arctic river deltas influence how nutrients and soil organic carbon, carried by sediments from the Arctic landscape, are retained or released into the Arctic Ocean. Under climate change, the deltas themselves and their ecosystems are becoming more vulnerable. We build upon previous models to reproduce for the first time an important feature ubiquitous to Arctic deltas and simulate its future under climate warming. This can impact the future of Arctic deltas and the carbon release they moderate.
Fuming Xie, Shiyin Liu, Yongpeng Gao, Yu Zhu, Tobias Bolch, Andreas Kääb, Shimei Duan, Wenfei Miao, Jianfang Kang, Yaonan Zhang, Xiran Pan, Caixia Qin, Kunpeng Wu, Miaomiao Qi, Xianhe Zhang, Ying Yi, Fengze Han, Xiaojun Yao, Qiao Liu, Xin Wang, Zongli Jiang, Donghui Shangguan, Yong Zhang, Richard Grünwald, Muhammad Adnan, Jyoti Karki, and Muhammad Saifullah
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 847–867, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-847-2023, 2023
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In this study, first we generated inventories which allowed us to systematically detect glacier change patterns in the Karakoram range. We found that, by the 2020s, there were approximately 10 500 glaciers in the Karakoram mountains covering an area of 22 510.73 km2, of which ~ 10.2 % is covered by debris. During the past 30 years (from 1990 to 2020), the total glacier cover area in Karakoram remained relatively stable, with a slight increase in area of 23.5 km2.
Cas Renette, Kristoffer Aalstad, Juditha Aga, Robin Benjamin Zweigel, Bernd Etzelmüller, Karianne Staalesen Lilleøren, Ketil Isaksen, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 33–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-33-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-33-2023, 2023
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One of the reasons for lower ground temperatures in coarse, blocky terrain is a low or varying soil moisture content, which most permafrost modelling studies did not take into account. We used the CryoGrid community model to successfully simulate this effect and found markedly lower temperatures in well-drained, blocky deposits compared to other set-ups. The inclusion of this drainage effect is another step towards a better model representation of blocky mountain terrain in permafrost regions.
Anirudha Mahagaonkar, Geir Moholdt, and Thomas V. Schuler
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-4, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-4, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Surface meltwater lakes along the margins of the Antarctic Ice Sheet can be important for ice shelf dynamics and stability. We used optical satellite imagery to study seasonal evolution of meltwater lakes in Dronning Maud Land. We found large interannual variability in lake extents, but with consistent seasonal patterns. Although correlation with summer air temperature was strong locally, other climatic and environmental factors need to be considered to explain the large regional variability.
Esteban Alonso-González, Kristoffer Aalstad, Mohamed Wassim Baba, Jesús Revuelto, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, Joel Fiddes, Richard Essery, and Simon Gascoin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9127–9155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9127-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9127-2022, 2022
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Snow cover plays an important role in many processes, but its monitoring is a challenging task. The alternative is usually to simulate the snowpack, and to improve these simulations one of the most promising options is to fuse simulations with available observations (data assimilation). In this paper we present MuSA, a data assimilation tool which facilitates the implementation of snow monitoring initiatives, allowing the assimilation of a wide variety of remotely sensed snow cover information.
Norbert Pirk, Kristoffer Aalstad, Sebastian Westermann, Astrid Vatne, Alouette van Hove, Lena Merete Tallaksen, Massimo Cassiani, and Gabriel Katul
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 7293–7314, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-7293-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-7293-2022, 2022
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In this study, we show how sparse and noisy drone measurements can be combined with an ensemble of turbulence-resolving wind simulations to estimate uncertainty-aware surface energy exchange. We demonstrate the feasibility of this drone data assimilation framework in a series of synthetic and real-world experiments. This new framework can, in future, be applied to estimate energy and gas exchange in heterogeneous landscapes more representatively than conventional methods.
Femke van Geffen, Birgit Heim, Frederic Brieger, Rongwei Geng, Iuliia A. Shevtsova, Luise Schulte, Simone M. Stuenzi, Nadine Bernhardt, Elena I. Troeva, Luidmila A. Pestryakova, Evgenii S. Zakharov, Bringfried Pflug, Ulrike Herzschuh, and Stefan Kruse
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4967–4994, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4967-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4967-2022, 2022
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SiDroForest is an attempt to remedy data scarcity regarding vegetation data in the circumpolar region, whilst providing adjusted and labeled data for machine learning and upscaling practices. SiDroForest contains four datasets that include SfM point clouds, individually labeled trees, synthetic tree crowns and labeled Sentinel-2 patches that provide insights into the vegetation composition and forest structure of two important vegetation transition zones in Siberia, Russia.
Mauricio Arboleda-Zapata, Michael Angelopoulos, Pier Paul Overduin, Guido Grosse, Benjamin M. Jones, and Jens Tronicke
The Cryosphere, 16, 4423–4445, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4423-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4423-2022, 2022
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We demonstrate how we can reliably estimate the thawed–frozen permafrost interface with its associated uncertainties in subsea permafrost environments using 2D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. In addition, we show how further analyses considering 1D inversion and sensitivity assessments can help quantify and better understand 2D ERT inversion results. Our results illustrate the capabilities of the ERT method to get insights into the development of the subsea permafrost.
Karianne S. Lilleøren, Bernd Etzelmüller, Line Rouyet, Trond Eiken, Gaute Slinde, and Christin Hilbich
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 975–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-975-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-975-2022, 2022
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In northern Norway we have observed several rock glaciers at sea level. Rock glaciers are landforms that only form under the influence of permafrost, which is frozen ground. Our investigations show that the rock glaciers are probably not active under the current climate but most likely were active in the recent past. This shows how the Arctic now changes due to climate changes and also how similar areas in currently colder climates will change in the future.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Shashank Bhushan, Mylène Jacquemart, César Deschamps-Berger, Etienne Berthier, Simon Gascoin, David E. Shean, Dan H. Shugar, and Andreas Kääb
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3309–3327, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022, 2022
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On 7 February 2021, a large rock–ice avalanche occurred in Chamoli, Indian Himalaya. The resulting debris flow swept down the nearby valley, leaving over 200 people dead or missing. We use a range of satellite datasets to investigate how the collapse area changed prior to collapse. We show that signs of instability were visible as early 5 years prior to collapse. However, it would likely not have been possible to predict the timing of the event from current satellite datasets.
Victoria R. Dutch, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Melody Sandells, Chris Derksen, Branden Walker, Gabriel Hould Gosselin, Oliver Sonnentag, Richard Essery, Richard Kelly, Phillip Marsh, Joshua King, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 16, 4201–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4201-2022, 2022
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Measurements of the properties of the snow and soil were compared to simulations of the Community Land Model to see how well the model represents snow insulation. Simulations underestimated snow thermal conductivity and wintertime soil temperatures. We test two approaches to reduce the transfer of heat through the snowpack and bring simulated soil temperatures closer to measurements, with an alternative parameterisation of snow thermal conductivity being more appropriate.
Juri Palmtag, Jaroslav Obu, Peter Kuhry, Andreas Richter, Matthias B. Siewert, Niels Weiss, Sebastian Westermann, and Gustaf Hugelius
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4095–4110, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4095-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4095-2022, 2022
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The northern permafrost region covers 22 % of the Northern Hemisphere and holds almost twice as much carbon as the atmosphere. This paper presents data from 651 soil pedons encompassing more than 6500 samples from 16 different study areas across the northern permafrost region. We use this dataset together with ESA's global land cover dataset to estimate soil organic carbon and total nitrogen storage up to 300 cm soil depth, with estimated values of 813 Pg for carbon and 55 Pg for nitrogen.
Jan Nitzbon, Damir Gadylyaev, Steffen Schlüter, John Maximilian Köhne, Guido Grosse, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 16, 3507–3515, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3507-2022, 2022
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The microstructure of permafrost soils contains clues to its formation and its preconditioning to future change. We used X-ray computed tomography (CT) to measure the composition of a permafrost drill core from Siberia. By combining CT with laboratory measurements, we determined the the proportions of pore ice, excess ice, minerals, organic matter, and gas contained in the core at an unprecedented resolution. Our work demonstrates the potential of CT to study permafrost properties and processes.
Lutz Beckebanze, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Josefine Walz, Christian Wille, David Holl, Manuel Helbig, Julia Boike, Torsten Sachs, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences, 19, 3863–3876, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3863-2022, 2022
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In this study, we present observations of lateral and vertical carbon fluxes from a permafrost-affected study site in the Russian Arctic. From this dataset we estimate the net ecosystem carbon balance for this study site. We show that lateral carbon export has a low impact on the net ecosystem carbon balance during the complete study period (3 months). Nevertheless, our results also show that lateral carbon export can exceed vertical carbon uptake at the beginning of the growing season.
Aldo Bertone, Chloé Barboux, Xavier Bodin, Tobias Bolch, Francesco Brardinoni, Rafael Caduff, Hanne H. Christiansen, Margaret M. Darrow, Reynald Delaloye, Bernd Etzelmüller, Ole Humlum, Christophe Lambiel, Karianne S. Lilleøren, Volkmar Mair, Gabriel Pellegrinon, Line Rouyet, Lucas Ruiz, and Tazio Strozzi
The Cryosphere, 16, 2769–2792, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2769-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2769-2022, 2022
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We present the guidelines developed by the IPA Action Group and within the ESA Permafrost CCI project to include InSAR-based kinematic information in rock glacier inventories. Nine operators applied these guidelines to 11 regions worldwide; more than 3600 rock glaciers are classified according to their kinematics. We test and demonstrate the feasibility of applying common rules to produce homogeneous kinematic inventories at global scale, useful for hydrological and climate change purposes.
Frank Paul, Livia Piermattei, Désirée Treichler, Lin Gilbert, Luc Girod, Andreas Kääb, Ludivine Libert, Thomas Nagler, Tazio Strozzi, and Jan Wuite
The Cryosphere, 16, 2505–2526, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2505-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2505-2022, 2022
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Glacier surges are widespread in the Karakoram and have been intensely studied using satellite data and DEMs. We use time series of such datasets to study three glacier surges in the same region of the Karakoram. We found strongly contrasting advance rates and flow velocities, maximum velocities of 30 m d−1, and a change in the surge mechanism during a surge. A sensor comparison revealed good agreement, but steep terrain and the two smaller glaciers caused limitations for some of them.
Bas Altena, Andreas Kääb, and Bert Wouters
The Cryosphere, 16, 2285–2300, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2285-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2285-2022, 2022
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Repeat overflights of satellites are used to estimate surface displacements. However, such products lack a simple error description for individual measurements, but variation in precision occurs, since the calculation is based on the similarity of texture. Fortunately, variation in precision manifests itself in the correlation peak, which is used for the displacement calculation. This spread is used to make a connection to measurement precision, which can be of great use for model inversion.
Isabelle Gärtner-Roer, Nina Brunner, Reynald Delaloye, Wilfried Haeberli, Andreas Kääb, and Patrick Thee
The Cryosphere, 16, 2083–2101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2083-2022, 2022
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We intensely investigated the Gruben site in the Swiss Alps, where glaciers and permafrost landforms closely interact, to better understand cold-climate environments. By the interpretation of air photos from 5 decades, we describe long-term developments of the existing landforms. In combination with high-resolution positioning measurements and ground surface temperatures, we were also able to link these to short-term changes and describe different landform responses to climate forcing.
Matthias Fuchs, Juri Palmtag, Bennet Juhls, Pier Paul Overduin, Guido Grosse, Ahmed Abdelwahab, Michael Bedington, Tina Sanders, Olga Ogneva, Irina V. Fedorova, Nikita S. Zimov, Paul J. Mann, and Jens Strauss
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2279–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2279-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2279-2022, 2022
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We created digital, high-resolution bathymetry data sets for the Lena Delta and Kolyma Gulf regions in northeastern Siberia. Based on nautical charts, we digitized depth points and isobath lines, which serve as an input for a 50 m bathymetry model. The benefit of this data set is the accurate mapping of near-shore areas as well as the offshore continuation of the main deep river channels. This will improve the estimation of river outflow and the nutrient flux output into the coastal zone.
William Colgan, Agnes Wansing, Kenneth Mankoff, Mareen Lösing, John Hopper, Keith Louden, Jörg Ebbing, Flemming G. Christiansen, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Lillemor Claesson Liljedahl, Joseph A. MacGregor, Árni Hjartarson, Stefan Bernstein, Nanna B. Karlsson, Sven Fuchs, Juha Hartikainen, Johan Liakka, Robert S. Fausto, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Anders Bjørk, Jens-Ove Naslund, Finn Mørk, Yasmina Martos, Niels Balling, Thomas Funck, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Dorthe Petersen, Ulrik Gregersen, Gregers Dam, Tove Nielsen, Shfaqat A. Khan, and Anja Løkkegaard
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2209–2238, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2209-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2209-2022, 2022
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We assemble all available geothermal heat flow measurements collected in and around Greenland into a new database. We use this database of point measurements, in combination with other geophysical datasets, to model geothermal heat flow in and around Greenland. Our geothermal heat flow model is generally cooler than previous models of Greenland, especially in southern Greenland. It does not suggest any high geothermal heat flows resulting from Icelandic plume activity over 50 million years ago.
Noah D. Smith, Eleanor J. Burke, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Inge H. J. Althuizen, Julia Boike, Casper Tai Christiansen, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Friborg, Hanna Lee, Heather Rumbold, Rachael H. Turton, Sebastian Westermann, and Sarah E. Chadburn
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3603–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, 2022
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The Arctic has large areas of small mounds that are caused by ice lifting up the soil. Snow blown by wind gathers in hollows next to these mounds, insulating them in winter. The hollows tend to be wetter, and thus the soil absorbs more heat in summer. The warm wet soil in the hollows decomposes, releasing methane. We have made a model of this, and we have tested how it behaves and whether it looks like sites in Scandinavia and Siberia. Sometimes we get more methane than a model without mounds.
Charlotte Haugk, Loeka L. Jongejans, Kai Mangelsdorf, Matthias Fuchs, Olga Ogneva, Juri Palmtag, Gesine Mollenhauer, Paul J. Mann, P. Paul Overduin, Guido Grosse, Tina Sanders, Robyn E. Tuerena, Lutz Schirrmeister, Sebastian Wetterich, Alexander Kizyakov, Cornelia Karger, and Jens Strauss
Biogeosciences, 19, 2079–2094, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2079-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2079-2022, 2022
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Buried animal and plant remains (carbon) from the last ice age were freeze-locked in permafrost. At an extremely fast eroding permafrost cliff in the Lena Delta (Siberia), we found this formerly frozen carbon well preserved. Our results show that ongoing degradation releases substantial amounts of this carbon, making it available for future carbon emissions. This mobilisation at the studied cliff and also similarly eroding sites bear the potential to affect rivers and oceans negatively.
Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Frederieke Miesner, Paul P. Overduin, Matteo Puglini, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 16, 1057–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022, 2022
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Thawing permafrost releases carbon to the atmosphere, enhancing global warming. Part of the permafrost soils have been flooded by rising sea levels since the last ice age, becoming subsea permafrost (SSPF). The SSPF is less studied than the part on land. In this study we use a global model to obtain rates of thawing of SSPF under different future climate scenarios until the year 3000. After the year 2100 the scenarios strongly diverge, closely connected to the eventual disappearance of sea ice.
Stefan Kruse, Simone M. Stuenzi, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, Josias Gloy, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2395–2422, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2395-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2395-2022, 2022
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We coupled established models for boreal forest (LAVESI) and permafrost dynamics (CryoGrid) in Siberia to investigate interactions of the diverse vegetation layer with permafrost soils. Our tests showed improved active layer depth estimations and newly included species growth according to their species-specific limits. We conclude that the new model system can be applied to simulate boreal forest dynamics and transitions under global warming and disturbances, expanding our knowledge.
Joel Fiddes, Kristoffer Aalstad, and Michael Lehning
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1753–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1753-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1753-2022, 2022
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This study describes and evaluates a new downscaling scheme that addresses the need for hillslope-scale atmospheric forcing time series for modelling the local impact of regional climate change on the land surface in mountain areas. The method has a global scope and is able to generate all model forcing variables required for hydrological and land surface modelling. This is important, as impact models require high-resolution forcings such as those generated here to produce meaningful results.
Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Angela V. Gallego-Sala, Noah D. Smith, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Dan J. Charman, Julia Drewer, Colin W. Edgar, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Yao Gao, Mahdi Nakhavali, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Edward A. G. Schuur, and Sebastian Westermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1633–1657, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022, 2022
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We present a new method to include peatlands in an Earth system model (ESM). Peatlands store huge amounts of carbon that accumulates very slowly but that can be rapidly destabilised, emitting greenhouse gases. Our model captures the dynamic nature of peat by simulating the change in surface height and physical properties of the soil as carbon is added or decomposed. Thus, we model, for the first time in an ESM, peat dynamics and its threshold behaviours that can lead to destabilisation.
Tazio Strozzi, Andreas Wiesmann, Andreas Kääb, Thomas Schellenberger, and Frank Paul
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-44, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-44, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Knowledge on surface velocity of glaciers and ice caps contributes to a better understanding of a wide range of processes related to glacier dynamics, mass change and response to climate. Based on the release of historical satellite radar data from various space agencies we compiled nearly complete mosaics of winter ice surface velocities for the 1990's over the Eastern Arctic. Compared to the present state, we observe a general increase of ice velocities along with a retreat of glacier fronts.
Bernd Etzelmüller, Justyna Czekirda, Florence Magnin, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Ludovic Ravanel, Emanuelle Malet, Andreas Aspaas, Lene Kristensen, Ingrid Skrede, Gudrun D. Majala, Benjamin Jacobs, Johannes Leinauer, Christian Hauck, Christin Hilbich, Martina Böhme, Reginald Hermanns, Harald Ø. Eriksen, Tom Rune Lauknes, Michael Krautblatter, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 97–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, 2022
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This paper is a multi-authored study documenting the possible existence of permafrost in permanently monitored rockslides in Norway for the first time by combining a multitude of field data, including geophysical surveys in rock walls. The paper discusses the possible role of thermal regime and rockslide movement, and it evaluates the possible impact of atmospheric warming on rockslide dynamics in Norwegian mountains.
Anna-Maria Virkkala, Susan M. Natali, Brendan M. Rogers, Jennifer D. Watts, Kathleen Savage, Sara June Connon, Marguerite Mauritz, Edward A. G. Schuur, Darcy Peter, Christina Minions, Julia Nojeim, Roisin Commane, Craig A. Emmerton, Mathias Goeckede, Manuel Helbig, David Holl, Hiroki Iwata, Hideki Kobayashi, Pasi Kolari, Efrén López-Blanco, Maija E. Marushchak, Mikhail Mastepanov, Lutz Merbold, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Torsten Sachs, Oliver Sonnentag, Masahito Ueyama, Carolina Voigt, Mika Aurela, Julia Boike, Gerardo Celis, Namyi Chae, Torben R. Christensen, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Sigrid Dengel, Han Dolman, Colin W. Edgar, Bo Elberling, Eugenie Euskirchen, Achim Grelle, Juha Hatakka, Elyn Humphreys, Järvi Järveoja, Ayumi Kotani, Lars Kutzbach, Tuomas Laurila, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Yojiro Matsuura, Gesa Meyer, Mats B. Nilsson, Steven F. Oberbauer, Sang-Jong Park, Roman Petrov, Anatoly S. Prokushkin, Christopher Schulze, Vincent L. St. Louis, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Juha-Pekka Tuovinen, William Quinton, Andrej Varlagin, Donatella Zona, and Viacheslav I. Zyryanov
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 179–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-179-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-179-2022, 2022
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The effects of climate warming on carbon cycling across the Arctic–boreal zone (ABZ) remain poorly understood due to the relatively limited distribution of ABZ flux sites. Fortunately, this flux network is constantly increasing, but new measurements are published in various platforms, making it challenging to understand the ABZ carbon cycle as a whole. Here, we compiled a new database of Arctic–boreal CO2 fluxes to help facilitate large-scale assessments of the ABZ carbon cycle.
Katharina Jentzsch, Julia Boike, and Thomas Foken
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 7291–7296, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7291-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7291-2021, 2021
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Very small CO2 fluxes are measured at night in Arctic regions. If the sensible heat flux is not close to zero under these conditions, the WPL correction will take values on the order of the flux. A special quality control is proposed for these cases.
Paul Willem Leclercq, Andreas Kääb, and Bas Altena
The Cryosphere, 15, 4901–4907, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4901-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4901-2021, 2021
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In this study we present a novel method to detect glacier surge activity. Surges are relevant as they disturb the link between glacier change and climate, and studying surges can also increase understanding of glacier flow. We use variations in Sentinel-1 radar backscatter strength, calculated with the use of Google Earth Engine, to detect surge activity. In our case study for the year 2018–2019 we find 69 cases of surging glaciers globally. Many of these were not previously known to be surging.
Chao Yue, Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Liyun Zhao, Michael Wolovick, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-318, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-318, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We use the ice sheet model PISM to estimate Vatnajökull mass balance under solar geoengineering. We find that Stratospheric aerosol injection at the rate of 5 Tg yr−1 reduces ice cap mass loss by 4 percentage points relative to the RCP4.5 scenario. Dynamic mass loss is a significant component of mass balance, but insensitive to climate forcing.
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Short summary
The CryoGrid community model is a new tool for simulating ground temperatures and the water and ice balance in cold regions. It is a modular design, which makes it possible to test different schemes to simulate, for example, permafrost ground in an efficient way. The model contains tools to simulate frozen and unfrozen ground, snow, glaciers, and other massive ice bodies, as well as water bodies.
The CryoGrid community model is a new tool for simulating ground temperatures and the water and...
