Articles | Volume 13, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-651-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-651-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
19 Feb 2020
Development and technical paper |
| 19 Feb 2020
| 19 Feb 2020
Automated Monte Carlo-based quantification and updating of geological uncertainty with borehole data (AutoBEL v1.0)
Department of Geological Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA
94305, USA
Sebastien Strebelle
Chevron, Houston, USA
Jef Caers
Department of Geological Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA
94305, USA
Related authors
Emma J. MacKie, Michael Field, Lijing Wang, Zhen Yin, Nathan Schoedl, Matthew Hibbs, and Allan Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3765–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3765-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3765-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earth scientists often have to fill in spatial gaps in measurements. This gap-filling or interpolation can be accomplished with geostatistical methods, where the statistical relationships between measurements are used to inform how these gaps should be filled. Despite the broad utility of these methods, there are few freely available geostatistical software applications. We present GStatSim, a Python package for performing different geostatistical interpolation methods.
Zhen Yin, Chen Zuo, Emma J. MacKie, and Jef Caers
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1477–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1477-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1477-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a multiple-point geostatistics approach to probabilistically learn from training images to fill large-scale irregular geophysical data gaps. With a repository of global topographic training images, our approach models high-resolution basal topography and quantifies the geospatial uncertainty. It generated high-resolution topographic realizations to investigate the impact of basal topographic uncertainty on critical subglacial hydrological flow patterns associated with ice velocity.
Emma J. MacKie, Michael Field, Lijing Wang, Zhen Yin, Nathan Schoedl, Matthew Hibbs, and Allan Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3765–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3765-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3765-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earth scientists often have to fill in spatial gaps in measurements. This gap-filling or interpolation can be accomplished with geostatistical methods, where the statistical relationships between measurements are used to inform how these gaps should be filled. Despite the broad utility of these methods, there are few freely available geostatistical software applications. We present GStatSim, a Python package for performing different geostatistical interpolation methods.
John Mern and Jef Caers
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 289–313, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-289-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we formulate the sequential geoscientific data acquisition problem as a problem that is similar to playing chess against nature, except the pieces are not fully observed. Solutions to these problems are given in AI and rarely used in geoscientific data planning. We illustrate our approach to a simple 2D problem of mineral exploration.
Zhen Yin, Chen Zuo, Emma J. MacKie, and Jef Caers
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1477–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1477-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1477-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a multiple-point geostatistics approach to probabilistically learn from training images to fill large-scale irregular geophysical data gaps. With a repository of global topographic training images, our approach models high-resolution basal topography and quantifies the geospatial uncertainty. It generated high-resolution topographic realizations to investigate the impact of basal topographic uncertainty on critical subglacial hydrological flow patterns associated with ice velocity.
Adrian A. S. Barfod, Ingelise Møller, Anders V. Christiansen, Anne-Sophie Høyer, Júlio Hoffimann, Julien Straubhaar, and Jef Caers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3351–3373, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3351-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3351-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Three-dimensional geological models are important to securing and managing groundwater. Such models describe the geological architecture, which is used for modeling the flow of groundwater. Common geological modeling approaches result in one model, which does not quantify the architectural uncertainty of the geology.
We present a comparison of three different state-of-the-art stochastic multiple-point statistical methods for quantifying the geological uncertainty using real-world datasets.
Related subject area
Hydrology
Development of inter-grid-cell lateral unsaturated and saturated flow model in the E3SM Land Model (v2.0)
pyESDv1.0.1: an open-source Python framework for empirical-statistical downscaling of climate information
Representing the impact of Rhizophora mangroves on flow in a hydrodynamic model (COAWST_rh v1.0): the importance of three-dimensional root system structures
Dynamically weighted ensemble of geoscientific models via automated machine-learning-based classification
Enhancing the representation of water management in global hydrological models
NEOPRENE v1.0.1: a Python library for generating spatial rainfall based on the Neyman–Scott process
Uncertainty estimation for a new exponential-filter-based long-term root-zone soil moisture dataset from Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) surface observations
Validating the Nernst–Planck transport model under reaction-driven flow conditions using RetroPy v1.0
GPEP v1.0: a Geospatial Probabilistic Estimation Package to support Earth Science applications
DynQual v1.0: a high-resolution global surface water quality model
GEMS v1.0: Generalizable empirical model of snow accumulation and melt based on daily snow mass changes in response to climate and topographic drivers
Data space inversion for efficient uncertainty quantification using an integrated surface and sub-surface hydrologic model
rSHUD v2.0: Advancing Unstructured Hydrological Modeling in the R Environment
Simulation of crop yield using the global hydrological model H08 (crp.v1)
How is a global sensitivity analysis of a catchment-scale, distributed pesticide transfer model performed? Application to the PESHMELBA model
iHydroSlide3D v1.0: an advanced hydrological–geotechnical model for hydrological simulation and three-dimensional landslide prediction
GEB v0.1: a large-scale agent-based socio-hydrological model – simulating 10 million individual farming households in a fully distributed hydrological model
Tracing and visualisation of contributing water sources in the LISFLOOD-FP model of flood inundation (within CAESAR-Lisflood version 1.9j-WS)
Continental-scale evaluation of a fully distributed coupled land surface and groundwater model, ParFlow-CLM (v3.6.0), over Europe
Evaluating a global soil moisture dataset from a multitask model (GSM3 v1.0) with potential applications for crop threats
SERGHEI (SERGHEI-SWE) v1.0: a performance-portable high-performance parallel-computing shallow-water solver for hydrology and environmental hydraulics
A simple, efficient, mass-conservative approach to solving Richards' equation (openRE, v1.0)
Customized deep learning for precipitation bias correction and downscaling
Implementation and sensitivity analysis of the Dam-Reservoir OPeration model (DROP v1.0) over Spain
Regional coupled surface–subsurface hydrological model fitting based on a spatially distributed minimalist reduction of frequency domain discharge data
Operational water forecast ability of the HRRR-iSnobal combination: an evaluation to adapt into production environments
Prediction of algal blooms via data-driven machine learning models: an evaluation using data from a well-monitored mesotrophic lake
UniFHy v0.1.1: a community modelling framework for the terrestrial water cycle in Python
mesas.py v1.0: A flexible Python package for modeling solute transport and transit times using StorAge Selection functions
GLOBGM v1.0: a parallel implementation of a 30 arcsec PCR-GLOBWB-MODFLOW global-scale groundwater model
Basin-scale gyres and mesoscale eddies in large lakes: a novel procedure for their detection and characterization, assessed in Lake Geneva
SIMO v1.0: simplified model of the vertical temperature profile in a small, warm, monomictic lake
Thermal modeling of three lakes within the continuous permafrost zone in Alaska using the LAKE 2.0 model
Water balance model (WBM) v.1.0.0: a scalable gridded global hydrologic model with water-tracking functionality
Coupling a large-scale hydrological model (CWatM v1.1) with a high-resolution groundwater flow model (MODFLOW 6) to assess the impact of irrigation at regional scale
RavenR v2.1.4: an open-source R package to support flexible hydrologic modelling
Developing a parsimonious canopy model (PCM v1.0) to predict forest gross primary productivity and leaf area index of deciduous broad-leaved forest
Synergy between satellite observations of soil moisture and water storage anomalies for runoff estimation
A physically based distributed karst hydrological model (QMG model-V1.0) for flood simulations
Modular Assessment of Rainfall–Runoff Models Toolbox (MARRMoT) v2.1: an object-oriented implementation of 47 established hydrological models for improved speed and readability
CREST-VEC: a framework towards more accurate and realistic flood simulation across scales
Rad-cGAN v1.0: Radar-based precipitation nowcasting model with conditional generative adversarial networks for multiple dam domains
The eWaterCycle platform for open and FAIR hydrological collaboration
Evaluating the Atibaia River hydrology using JULES6.1
A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector
CLIMFILL v0.9: a framework for intelligently gap filling Earth observations
Modeling subgrid lake energy balance in ORCHIDEE terrestrial scheme using the FLake lake model
Evaluating a reservoir parametrization in the vector-based global routing model mizuRoute (v2.0.1) for Earth system model coupling
Improved runoff simulations for a highly varying soil depth and complex terrain watershed in the Loess Plateau with the Community Land Model version 5
GSTools v1.3: a toolbox for geostatistical modelling in Python
Han Qiu, Gautam Bisht, Lingcheng Li, Dalei Hao, and Donghui Xu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 143–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-143-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-143-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed and validated an inter-grid-cell lateral groundwater flow model for both saturated and unsaturated zone in the ELMv2.0 framework. The developed model was benchmarked against PFLOTRAN, a 3D subsurface flow and transport model and showed comparable performance with PFLOTRAN. The developed model was also applied to the Little Washita experimental watershed. The spatial pattern of simulated groundwater table depth agreed well with the global groundwater table benchmark dataset.
Daniel Boateng and Sebastian G. Mutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6479–6514, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6479-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6479-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present an open-source Python framework for performing empirical-statistical downscaling of climate information, such as precipitation. The user-friendly package comprises all the downscaling cycles including data preparation, model selection, training, and evaluation, designed in an efficient and flexible manner, allowing for quick and reproducible downscaling products. The framework would contribute to climate change impact assessments by generating accurate high-resolution climate data.
Masaya Yoshikai, Takashi Nakamura, Eugene C. Herrera, Rempei Suwa, Rene Rollon, Raghab Ray, Keita Furukawa, and Kazuo Nadaoka
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5847–5863, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Due to complex root system structures, representing the impacts of Rhizophora mangroves on flow in hydrodynamic models has been challenging. This study presents a new drag and turbulence model that leverages an empirical model for root systems. The model can be applied without rigorous measurements of root structures and showed high performance in flow simulations; this may provide a better understanding of hydrodynamics and related transport processes in Rhizophora mangrove forests.
Hao Chen, Tiejun Wang, Yonggen Zhang, Yun Bai, and Xi Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5685–5701, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Effectively assembling multiple models for approaching a benchmark solution remains a long-standing issue for various geoscience domains. We here propose an automated machine learning-assisted ensemble framework (AutoML-Ens) that attempts to resolve this challenge. Results demonstrate the great potential of AutoML-Ens for improving estimations due to its two unique features, i.e., assigning dynamic weights for candidate models and taking full advantage of AutoML-assisted workflow.
Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Fuqiang Tian, Thomas Wild, Mengqi Zhao, Sean Turner, A. F. M. Kamal Chowdhury, Chris R. Vernon, Hongchang Hu, Yuan Zhuang, Mohamad Hejazi, and Hong-Yi Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5449–5472, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5449-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5449-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Most existing global hydrologic models do not explicitly represent hydropower reservoirs. We are introducing a new water management module to Xanthos that distinguishes between the operational characteristics of irrigation, hydropower, and flood control reservoirs. We show that this explicit representation of hydropower reservoirs can lead to a significantly more realistic simulation of reservoir storage and releases in over 44 % of the hydropower reservoirs included in this study.
Javier Diez-Sierra, Salvador Navas, and Manuel del Jesus
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5035–5048, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5035-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5035-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
NEOPRENE is an open-source, freely available library allowing scientists and practitioners to generate synthetic time series and maps of rainfall. These outputs will help to explore plausible events that were never observed in the past but may occur in the near future and to generate possible future events under climate change conditions. The paper shows how to use the library to downscale daily precipitation and how to use synthetic generation to improve our characterization of extreme events.
Adam Pasik, Alexander Gruber, Wolfgang Preimesberger, Domenico De Santis, and Wouter Dorigo
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4957–4976, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4957-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We apply the exponential filter (EF) method to satellite soil moisture retrievals to estimate the water content in the unobserved root zone globally from 2002–2020. Quality assessment against an independent dataset shows satisfactory results. Error characterization is carried out using the standard uncertainty propagation law and empirically estimated values of EF model structural uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. This is followed by analysis of temporal uncertainty variations.
Po-Wei Huang, Bernd Flemisch, Chao-Zhong Qin, Martin O. Saar, and Anozie Ebigbo
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4767–4791, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4767-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Water in natural environments consists of many ions. Ions are electrically charged and exert electric forces on each other. We discuss whether the electric forces are relevant in describing mixing and reaction processes in natural environments. By comparing our computer simulations to lab experiments in literature, we show that the electric interactions between ions can play an essential role in mixing and reaction processes, in which case they should not be neglected in numerical modeling.
Guoqiang Tang, Andrew W. Wood, Andrew J. Newman, Martyn P. Clark, and Simon Michael Papalexiou
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-172, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble geophysical datasets are crucial for understanding uncertainties and supporting probabilistic estimation/prediction. However, open-access tools for creating these datasets are limited. We have developed a Python-based Geospatial Probabilistic Estimation Package (GPEP). Through several experiments, we demonstrate GPEP's ability to estimate precipitation, temperature, and snow water equivalent. GPEP will be a useful tool to support uncertainty analysis in Earth science applications.
Edward R. Jones, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Niko Wanders, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Ludovicus P. H. van Beek, and Michelle T. H. van Vliet
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4481–4500, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
DynQual is a new high-resolution global water quality model for simulating total dissolved solids, biological oxygen demand and fecal coliform as indicators of salinity, organic pollution and pathogen pollution, respectively. Output data from DynQual can supplement the observational record of water quality data, which is highly fragmented across space and time, and has the potential to inform assessments in a broad range of fields including ecological, human health and water scarcity studies.
Atabek Umirbekov, Richard Essery, and Daniel Müller
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-103, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-103, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new snow model which simulates snow mass without the need for extensive calibration. The model is based on a machine learning algorithm that has been trained on diverse set of daily observations of snow accumulation or melt, along with corresponding climate and topography data. We validated the model using in-situ data from numerous new locations. The model provides a promising solution for accurate snow mass estimation across regions where in-situ data is limited.
Hugo Delottier, John Doherty, and Philip Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4213–4231, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4213-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4213-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Long run times are usually a barrier to the quantification and reduction of predictive uncertainty with complex hydrological models. Data space inversion (DSI) provides an alternative and highly model-run-efficient method for uncertainty quantification. This paper demonstrates DSI's ability to robustly quantify predictive uncertainty and extend the methodology to provide practical metrics that can guide data acquisition and analysis to achieve goals of decision-support modelling.
Lele Shu, Paul Ullrich, Xianghong Meng, Christopher Duffy, Hao Chen, and Zhaoguo Li
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-128, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-128, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Our team developed rSHUD v2.0, a toolkit that simplifies the use of the SHUD, a model simulating water movement in the environment. We demonstrated its effectiveness in two watersheds, one in the USA and one in China. The toolkit also facilitated the creation of the Global Hydrological Data Cloud, a platform for automatic data processing and model deployment, marking a significant advancement in hydrological research.
Zhipin Ai and Naota Hanasaki
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3275–3290, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3275-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3275-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Simultaneously simulating food production and the requirements and availability of water resources in a spatially explicit manner within a single framework remains challenging on a global scale. Here, we successfully enhanced the global hydrological model H08 that considers human water use and management to simulate the yields of four major staple crops: maize, wheat, rice, and soybean. Our improved model will be beneficial for advancing global food–water nexus studies in the future.
Emilie Rouzies, Claire Lauvernet, Bruno Sudret, and Arthur Vidard
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3137–3163, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3137-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3137-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Water and pesticide transfer models are complex and should be simplified to be used in decision support. Indeed, these models simulate many spatial processes in interaction, involving a large number of parameters. Sensitivity analysis allows us to select the most influential input parameters, but it has to be adapted to spatial modelling. This study will identify relevant methods that can be transposed to any hydrological and water quality model and improve the fate of pesticide knowledge.
Guoding Chen, Ke Zhang, Sheng Wang, Yi Xia, and Lijun Chao
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2915–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we developed a novel modeling system called iHydroSlide3D v1.0 by coupling a modified a 3D landslide model with a distributed hydrology model. The model is able to apply flexibly different simulating resolutions for hydrological and slope stability submodules and gain a high computational efficiency through parallel computation. The test results in the Yuehe River basin, China, show a good predicative capability for cascading flood–landslide events.
Jens A. de Bruijn, Mikhail Smilovic, Peter Burek, Luca Guillaumot, Yoshihide Wada, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2437–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a computer simulation model of the hydrological system and human system, which can simulate the behaviour of individual farmers and their interactions with the water system at basin scale to assess how the systems have evolved and are projected to evolve in the future. For example, we can simulate the effect of subsidies provided on investment in adaptation measures and subsequent effects in the hydrological system, such as a lowering of the groundwater table or reservoir level.
Matthew D. Wilson and Thomas J. Coulthard
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2415–2436, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2415-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2415-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
During flooding, the sources of water that inundate a location can influence impacts such as pollution. However, methods to trace water sources in flood events are currently only available in complex, computationally expensive hydraulic models. We propose a simplified method which can be added to efficient, reduced-complexity model codes, enabling an improved understanding of flood dynamics and its impacts. We demonstrate its application for three sites at a range of spatial and temporal scales.
Bibi S. Naz, Wendy Sharples, Yueling Ma, Klaus Goergen, and Stefan Kollet
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1617–1639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1617-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is challenging to apply a high-resolution integrated land surface and groundwater model over large spatial scales. In this paper, we demonstrate the application of such a model over a pan-European domain at 3 km resolution and perform an extensive evaluation of simulated water states and fluxes by comparing with in situ and satellite data. This study can serve as a benchmark and baseline for future studies of climate change impact projections and for hydrological forecasting.
Jiangtao Liu, David Hughes, Farshid Rahmani, Kathryn Lawson, and Chaopeng Shen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1553–1567, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1553-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Under-monitored regions like Africa need high-quality soil moisture predictions to help with food production, but it is not clear if soil moisture processes are similar enough around the world for data-driven models to maintain accuracy. We present a deep-learning-based soil moisture model that learns from both in situ data and satellite data and performs better than satellite products at the global scale. These results help us apply our model globally while better understanding its limitations.
Daniel Caviedes-Voullième, Mario Morales-Hernández, Matthew R. Norman, and Ilhan Özgen-Xian
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 977–1008, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-977-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-977-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces the SERGHEI framework and a solver for shallow-water problems. Such models, often used for surface flow and flood modelling, are computationally intense. In recent years the trends to increase computational power have changed, requiring models to adapt to new hardware and new software paradigms. SERGHEI addresses these challenges, allowing surface flow simulation to be enabled on the newest and upcoming consumer hardware and supercomputers very efficiently.
Andrew M. Ireson, Raymond J. Spiteri, Martyn P. Clark, and Simon A. Mathias
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 659–677, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-659-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-659-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Richards' equation (RE) is used to describe the movement and storage of water in a soil profile and is a component of many hydrological and earth-system models. Solving RE numerically is challenging due to the non-linearities in the properties. Here, we present a simple but effective and mass-conservative solution to solving RE, which is ideal for teaching/learning purposes but also useful in prototype models that are used to explore alternative process representations.
Fang Wang, Di Tian, and Mark Carroll
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 535–556, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-535-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-535-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Gridded precipitation datasets suffer from biases and coarse resolutions. We developed a customized deep learning (DL) model to bias-correct and downscale gridded precipitation data using radar observations. The results showed that the customized DL model can generate improved precipitation at fine resolutions where regular DL and statistical methods experience challenges. The new model can be used to improve precipitation estimates, especially for capturing extremes at smaller scales.
Malak Sadki, Simon Munier, Aaron Boone, and Sophie Ricci
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 427–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-427-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting water resource evolution is a key challenge for the coming century.
Anthropogenic impacts on water resources, and particularly the effects of dams and reservoirs on river flows, are still poorly known and generally neglected in global hydrological studies. A parameterized reservoir model is reproduced to compute monthly releases in Spanish anthropized river basins. For global application, an exhaustive sensitivity analysis of the model parameters is performed on flows and volumes.
Nicolas Flipo, Nicolas Gallois, and Jonathan Schuite
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 353–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-353-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-353-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach is proposed to fit hydrological or land surface models, which suffer from large uncertainties in terms of water partitioning between fast runoff and slow infiltration from small watersheds to regional or continental river basins. It is based on the analysis of hydrosystem behavior in the frequency domain, which serves as a basis for estimating water flows in the time domain with a physically based model. It opens the way to significant breakthroughs in hydrological modeling.
Joachim Meyer, John Horel, Patrick Kormos, Andrew Hedrick, Ernesto Trujillo, and S. McKenzie Skiles
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 233–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-233-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Freshwater resupply from seasonal snow in the mountains is changing. Current water prediction methods from snow rely on historical data excluding the change and can lead to errors. This work presented and evaluated an alternative snow-physics-based approach. The results in a test watershed were promising, and future improvements were identified. Adaptation to current forecast environments would improve resilience to the seasonal snow changes and helps ensure the accuracy of resupply forecasts.
Shuqi Lin, Donald C. Pierson, and Jorrit P. Mesman
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 35–46, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-35-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-35-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The risks brought by the proliferation of algal blooms motivate the improvement of bloom forecasting tools, but algal blooms are complexly controlled and difficult to predict. Given rapid growth of monitoring data and advances in computation, machine learning offers an alternative prediction methodology. This study tested various machine learning workflows in a dimictic mesotrophic lake and gave promising predictions of the seasonal variations and the timing of algal blooms.
Thibault Hallouin, Richard J. Ellis, Douglas B. Clark, Simon J. Dadson, Andrew G. Hughes, Bryan N. Lawrence, Grenville M. S. Lister, and Jan Polcher
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9177–9196, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9177-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9177-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A new framework for modelling the water cycle in the land system has been implemented. It considers the hydrological cycle as three interconnected components, bringing flexibility in the choice of the physical processes and their spatio-temporal resolutions. It is designed to foster collaborations between land surface, hydrological, and groundwater modelling communities to develop the next-generation of land system models for integration in Earth system models.
Ciaran Harman and Esther Xu Fei
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1262, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1262, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Over the last 10 years scientists have developed a new way of modeling how material is transported through complex systems, called StorAge Selection. Here we present some new code implementing this method that is easy to use, but also flexible and very accurate. We show that for cases where we know exactly what the answer should be, our code gets the right answer. We also show that our code is closer than some other people's code to the right answer in an important way: it conserves mass.
Jarno Verkaik, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink, Hai Xiang Lin, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-226, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-226, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the parallel PCR-GLOBWB global-scale groundwater model at 30 arcsec resolution (~1km at the equator). Named GLOBGM v1.0, this model is a follow-up of the 5 arcmin (~10 km) model, aiming for higher resolution simulation of worldwide fresh groundwater reserves under climate change and excessive pumping. For long transient simulation using a parallel prototype of MODFLOW 6, we show that our implementation is efficient for a relatively low number of processor cores.
Seyed Mahmood Hamze-Ziabari, Ulrich Lemmin, Frédéric Soulignac, Mehrshad Foroughan, and David Andrew Barry
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8785–8807, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8785-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8785-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A procedure combining numerical simulations, remote sensing, and statistical analyses is developed to detect large-scale current systems in large lakes. By applying this novel procedure in Lake Geneva, strategies for detailed transect field studies of the gyres and eddies were developed. Unambiguous field evidence of 3D gyre/eddy structures in full agreement with predictions confirmed the robustness of the proposed procedure.
Kristina Šarović, Melita Burić, and Zvjezdana B. Klaić
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8349–8375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8349-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8349-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a simple 1-D model for the prediction of the vertical temperature profiles in small, warm lakes. The model uses routinely measured meteorological variables as well as UVB radiation and yearly mean temperature data. It can be used for the assessment of the onset and duration of lake stratification periods when water temperature data are unavailable, which can be useful for various lake studies performed in other scientific fields, such as biology, geochemistry, and sedimentology.
Jason A. Clark, Elchin E. Jafarov, Ken D. Tape, Benjamin M. Jones, and Victor Stepanenko
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7421–7448, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7421-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7421-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes in the Arctic are important reservoirs of heat. Under climate warming scenarios, we expect Arctic lakes to warm the surrounding frozen ground. We simulate water temperatures in three Arctic lakes in northern Alaska over several years. Our results show that snow depth and lake ice strongly affect water temperatures during the frozen season and that more heat storage by lakes would enhance thawing of frozen ground.
Danielle S. Grogan, Shan Zuidema, Alex Prusevich, Wilfred M. Wollheim, Stanley Glidden, and Richard B. Lammers
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7287–7323, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7287-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the University of New Hampshire's water balance model (WBM). This model simulates the land surface components of the global water cycle and includes water extractions for use by humans for agricultural, domestic, and industrial purposes. A new feature is described that permits water source tracking through the water cycle, which has implications for water resource management. This paper was written to describe a long-used model and presents its first open-source version.
Luca Guillaumot, Mikhail Smilovic, Peter Burek, Jens de Bruijn, Peter Greve, Taher Kahil, and Yoshihide Wada
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7099–7120, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7099-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7099-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop and test the first large-scale hydrological model at regional scale with a very high spatial resolution that includes a water management and groundwater flow model. This study infers the impact of surface and groundwater-based irrigation on groundwater recharge and on evapotranspiration in both irrigated and non-irrigated areas. We argue that water table recorded in boreholes can be used as validation data if water management is well implemented and spatial resolution is ≤ 100 m.
Robert Chlumsky, James R. Craig, Simon G. M. Lin, Sarah Grass, Leland Scantlebury, Genevieve Brown, and Rezgar Arabzadeh
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7017–7030, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7017-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7017-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce the open-source RavenR package, which has been built to support the use of the hydrologic modelling framework Raven. The R package contains many functions that may be useful in each step of the model-building process, including preparing model input files, running the model, and analyzing the outputs. We present six reproducible use cases of the RavenR package for the Liard River basin in Canada to demonstrate how it may be deployed.
Bahar Bahrami, Anke Hildebrandt, Stephan Thober, Corinna Rebmann, Rico Fischer, Luis Samaniego, Oldrich Rakovec, and Rohini Kumar
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6957–6984, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6957-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6957-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) are crucial components to carbon cycle, and are closely linked to water cycle in many ways. We develop a Parsimonious Canopy Model (PCM) to simulate GPP and LAI at stand scale, and show its applicability over a diverse range of deciduous broad-leaved forest biomes. With its modular structure, the PCM is able to adapt with existing data requirements, and run in either a stand-alone mode or as an interface linked to hydrologic models.
Stefania Camici, Gabriele Giuliani, Luca Brocca, Christian Massari, Angelica Tarpanelli, Hassan Hashemi Farahani, Nico Sneeuw, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6935–6956, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6935-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6935-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents an innovative approach, STREAM (SaTellite-based Runoff Evaluation And Mapping), to derive daily river discharge and runoff estimates from satellite observations of soil moisture, precipitation, and terrestrial total water storage anomalies. Potentially useful for multiple operational and scientific applications, the added value of the STREAM approach is the ability to increase knowledge on the natural processes, human activities, and their interactions on the land.
Ji Li, Daoxian Yuan, Fuxi Zhang, Jiao Liu, and Mingguo Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6581–6600, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6581-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6581-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A new karst hydrological model (the QMG model) is developed to simulate and predict the floods in karst trough valley basins. Unlike the complex structure and parameters of current karst groundwater models, this model has a simple double-layered structure with few parameters and decreases the demand for modeling data in karst areas. The flood simulation results based on the QMG model of the Qingmuguan karst trough valley basin are satisfactory, indicating the suitability of the model simulation.
Luca Trotter, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Keirnan J. A. Fowler, Margarita Saft, and Murray C. Peel
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6359–6369, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6359-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6359-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
MARRMoT is a piece of software that emulates 47 common models for hydrological simulations. It can be used to run and calibrate these models within a common environment as well as to easily modify them. We restructured and recoded MARRMoT in order to make the models run faster and to simplify their use, while also providing some new features. This new MARRMoT version runs models on average 3.6 times faster while maintaining very strong consistency in their outputs to the previous version.
Zhi Li, Shang Gao, Mengye Chen, Jonathan Gourley, Naoki Mizukami, and Yang Hong
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6181–6196, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6181-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Operational streamflow prediction at a continental scale is critical for national water resources management. However, limited computational resources often impede such processes, with streamflow routing being one of the most time-consuming parts. This study presents a recent development of a hydrologic system that incorporates a vector-based routing scheme with a lake module that markedly speeds up streamflow prediction. Moreover, accuracy is improved and flood false alarms are mitigated.
Suyeon Choi and Yeonjoo Kim
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5967–5985, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5967-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5967-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present the cGAN-based precipitation nowcasting model, named Rad-cGAN, trained to predict a radar reflectivity map with a lead time of 10 min. Rad-cGAN showed superior performance at a lead time of up to 90 min compared with the reference models. Furthermore, we demonstrate the successful implementation of the transfer learning strategies using pre-trained Rad-cGAN to develop the models for different dam domains.
Rolf Hut, Niels Drost, Nick van de Giesen, Ben van Werkhoven, Banafsheh Abdollahi, Jerom Aerts, Thomas Albers, Fakhereh Alidoost, Bouwe Andela, Jaro Camphuijsen, Yifat Dzigan, Ronald van Haren, Eric Hutton, Peter Kalverla, Maarten van Meersbergen, Gijs van den Oord, Inti Pelupessy, Stef Smeets, Stefan Verhoeven, Martine de Vos, and Berend Weel
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5371–5390, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5371-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5371-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
With the eWaterCycle platform, we are providing the hydrological community with a platform to conduct their research that is fully compatible with the principles of both open science and FAIR science. The eWatercyle platform gives easy access to well-known hydrological models, big datasets and example experiments. Using eWaterCycle hydrologists can easily compare the results from different models, couple models and do more complex hydrological computational research.
Hsi-Kai Chou, Ana Maria Heuminski de Avila, and Michaela Bray
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5233–5240, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5233-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Land surface models allow us to understand and investigate the cause and effect of environmental process changes. Therefore, this type of model is increasingly used for hydrological assessments. Here we explore the possibility of this approach using a case study in the Atibaia River basin, which serves as a major water supply for the metropolitan regions of Campinas and São Paulo, Brazil. We evaluated the model performance and use the model to simulate the basin hydrology.
Malgorzata Golub, Wim Thiery, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Inne Vanderkelen, Daniel Mercado-Bettin, R. Iestyn Woolway, Luke Grant, Eleanor Jennings, Benjamin M. Kraemer, Jacob Schewe, Fang Zhao, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel, Vasiliy Y. Bogomolov, Damien Bouffard, Marianne Côté, Raoul-Marie Couture, Andrey V. Debolskiy, Bram Droppers, Gideon Gal, Mingyang Guo, Annette B. G. Janssen, Georgiy Kirillin, Robert Ladwig, Madeline Magee, Tadhg Moore, Marjorie Perroud, Sebastiano Piccolroaz, Love Raaman Vinnaa, Martin Schmid, Tom Shatwell, Victor M. Stepanenko, Zeli Tan, Bronwyn Woodward, Huaxia Yao, Rita Adrian, Mathew Allan, Orlane Anneville, Lauri Arvola, Karen Atkins, Leon Boegman, Cayelan Carey, Kyle Christianson, Elvira de Eyto, Curtis DeGasperi, Maria Grechushnikova, Josef Hejzlar, Klaus Joehnk, Ian D. Jones, Alo Laas, Eleanor B. Mackay, Ivan Mammarella, Hampus Markensten, Chris McBride, Deniz Özkundakci, Miguel Potes, Karsten Rinke, Dale Robertson, James A. Rusak, Rui Salgado, Leon van der Linden, Piet Verburg, Danielle Wain, Nicole K. Ward, Sabine Wollrab, and Galina Zdorovennova
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4597–4623, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. To better understand how lakes are changing and to project their future behavior amidst various sources of uncertainty, simulations with a range of lake models are required. This in turn requires international coordination across different lake modelling teams worldwide. Here we present a protocol for and results from coordinated simulations of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide.
Verena Bessenbacher, Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne, and Lukas Gudmundsson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4569–4596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4569-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4569-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Earth observations have many missing values. They are often filled using information from spatial and temporal contexts that mostly ignore information from related observed variables. We propose the gap-filling method CLIMFILL that additionally uses information from related variables. We test CLIMFILL using gap-free reanalysis data of variables related to soil–moisture climate interactions. CLIMFILL creates estimates for the missing values that recover the original dependence structure.
Anthony Bernus and Catherine Ottlé
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4275–4295, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4275-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4275-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The lake model FLake was coupled to the ORCHIDEE land surface model to simulate lake energy balance at global scale with a multi-tile approach. Several simulations were performed with various atmospheric reanalyses and different lake depth parameterizations. The simulated lake surface temperature showed good agreement with observations (RMSEs of the order of 3 °C). We showed the large impact of the atmospheric forcing on lake temperature. We highlighted systematic errors on ice cover phenology.
Inne Vanderkelen, Shervan Gharari, Naoki Mizukami, Martyn P. Clark, David M. Lawrence, Sean Swenson, Yadu Pokhrel, Naota Hanasaki, Ann van Griensven, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4163–4192, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4163-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4163-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Human-controlled reservoirs have a large influence on the global water cycle. However, dam operations are rarely represented in Earth system models. We implement and evaluate a widely used reservoir parametrization in a global river-routing model. Using observations of individual reservoirs, the reservoir scheme outperforms the natural lake scheme. However, both schemes show a similar performance due to biases in runoff timing and magnitude when using simulated runoff.
Jiming Jin, Lei Wang, Jie Yang, Bingcheng Si, and Guo-Yue Niu
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3405–3416, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3405-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3405-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study aimed to improve runoff simulations and explore deep soil hydrological processes for a highly varying soil depth and complex terrain watershed in the Loess Plateau, China. The actual soil depths and river channels were incorporated into the model to better simulate the runoff in this watershed. The soil evaporation scheme was modified to better describe the evaporation processes. Our results showed that the model significantly improved the runoff simulations.
Sebastian Müller, Lennart Schüler, Alraune Zech, and Falk Heße
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3161–3182, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3161-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3161-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The GSTools package provides a Python-based platform for geoostatistical applications. Salient features of GSTools are its random field generation, its kriging capabilities and its versatile covariance model. It is furthermore integrated with other Python packages, like PyKrige, ogs5py or scikit-gstat, and provides interfaces to meshio and PyVista. Four presented workflows showcase the abilities of GSTools.
Cited articles
Abbott, J.: Technical Report Mineral Resource Estimation for the Wonarah Phosphate Project Northern Territory, Australia, available at: https://avenira.com/other-projects/wonarah/technical-report-wonarah (last access: 13 January 2020), 2013.
Abdi, H., Williams, L. J., and Valentin, D.: Multiple factor analysis:
principal component analysis for multitable and multiblock data sets, WIREs Comp. Stat., 5, 149–179, https://doi.org/10.1002/wics.1246,
2013.
Athens, N. D. and Caers, J. K.: A Monte Carlo-based framework for assessing
the value of information and development risk in geothermal exploration,
Appl. Energ., 256, 113932, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.APENERGY.2019.113932, 2019a.
Aydin, O. and Caers, J. K.: Quantifying structural uncertainty on fault networks using a marked point process within a Bayesian framework, Tectonophysics, 712, 101–124, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2017.04.027, 2017.
Barfod, A. A. S., Møller, I., Christiansen, A. V., Høyer, A.-S., Hoffimann, J., Straubhaar, J., and Caers, J.: Hydrostratigraphic modeling using multiple-point statistics and airborne transient electromagnetic methods, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3351–3373, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3351-2018, 2018.
Beucher, H., Galli, A., Le Loc'h, G., and Ravenne, C.: Including a Regional
Trend in Reservoir Modelling Using the Truncated Gaussian Method, in:
Geostatistics Tróia '92, Volume 1, edited by: Soares, A., 555–566,
Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, 1993.
Beven, K.: Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological
modelling, Adv. Water Resour., 16, 41–51,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0309-1708(93)90028-E, 1993.
Caers, J. and Zhang, T.: Multiple-point Geostatistics: A Quantitative
Vehicle for Integrating Geologic Analogs into Multiple Reservoir Models,
edited by: Grammer, G. M., Harris, P. M., and Eberli, G. P., Integr.
Outcrop Mod. Analog. Reserv. Model., https://doi.org/10.1306/M80924C18, 2004.
Caumon, G.: Towards Stochastic Time-Varying Geological Modeling, Math.
Geosci., 42, 555–569, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11004-010-9280-y, 2010.
Caumon, G.: Geological Objects and Physical Parameter Fields in the
Subsurface: A Review, in: Handbook of Mathematical Geosciences: Fifty Years
of IAMG, edited by: Daya Sagar, B. S., Cheng, Q., and Agterberg, F.,
Springer International Publishing, Cham., 567–588, 2018.
Christie, M., MacBeth, C., and Subbey, S.: Multiple history-matched models
for Teal South, Lead. Edge, 21, 286–289, https://doi.org/10.1190/1.1463779, 2002.
Cullen, N. J., Anderson, B., Sirguey, P., Stumm, D., Mackintosh, A., Conway,
J. P., Horgan, H. J., Dadic, R., Fitzsimons, S. J., and Lorrey, A.: An
11-year record of mass balance of Brewster Glacier, New Zealand, determined
using a geostatistical approach, J. Glaciol., 63, 199–217,
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.128, 2017.
Curtis, J. B.: Fractured Shale-Gas Systems, Am. Assoc. Petr. Geol. B.,
86, 1921–1938, https://doi.org/10.1306/61EEDDBE-173E-11D7-8645000102C1865D, 2002.
de la Varga, M., Schaaf, A., and Wellmann, F.: GemPy 1.0: open-source stochastic geological modeling and inversion, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1-2019, 2019.
Deutsch, C. V. and Wilde, B. J.: Modeling multiple coal seams using signed
distance functions and global kriging, Int. J. Coal Geol., 112, 87–93,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.COAL.2012.11.013, 2013.
Dutta, G., Mukerji, T., and Eidsvik, J.: Value of information analysis for
subsurface energy resources applications, Appl. Energ., 252, 113436,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.APENERGY.2019.113436, 2019.
Eidsvik, J. and Ellefmo, S. L.: The Value of Information in Mineral
Exploration Within a Multi-Gaussian Framework, Math. Geosci., 45,
777–798, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11004-013-9457-2, 2013.
Elfeki, A. M. M. and Dekking, F. M.: Reducing geological uncertainty by
conditioning on boreholes: the coupled Markov chain approach, Hydrogeol. J.,
15, 1439–1455, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-007-0193-x, 2007.
Fenwick, D., Scheidt, C., and Caers, J.: Quantifying Asymmetric Parameter
Interactions in Sensitivity Analysis: Application to Reservoir Modeling,
Math. Geosci., 46, 493–511, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11004-014-9530-5, 2014.
Fischer, T., Naumov, D., Sattler, S., Kolditz, O., and Walther, M.: GO2OGS 1.0: a versatile workflow to integrate complex geological information with fault data into numerical simulation models, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3681–3694, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3681-2015, 2015.
Goovaerts, P.: Geostatistical approaches for incorporating elevation into
the spatial interpolation of rainfall, J. Hydrol., 228, 113–129,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00144-X, 2000.
Goovaerts, P.: Geostatistics for natural resources evaluation, 369–393, Oxford University Press on Demand, 1997.
Grose, L., Laurent, G., Aillères, L., Armit, R., Jessell, M., and
Cousin-Dechenaud, T.: Inversion of Structural Geology Data for Fold
Geometry, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 123, 6318–6333,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JB015177, 2018.
Hermans, T., Oware, E., and Caers, J.: Direct prediction of spatially and
temporally varying physical properties from time-lapse electrical resistance
data, Water Resour. Res., 52, 7262–7283, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019126, 2016.
Hermans, T., Nguyen, F., Klepikova, M., Dassargues, A., and Caers, J.:
Uncertainty Quantification of Medium-Term Heat Storage From Short-Term
Geophysical Experiments Using Bayesian Evidential Learning, Water Resour.
Res., 54, 2931–2948, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR022135, 2018.
Hermans, T., Lesparre, N., De Schepper, G., and Robert, T.: Bayesian
evidential learning: a field validation using push-pull tests, Hydrogeol.
J., 27, 1661–1672, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-019-01962-9, 2019.
Hoffmann, R., Dassargues, A., Goderniaux, P,. and Hermans, T.: Heterogeneity
and prior uncertainty investigation using a joint heat and solute tracer
experiment in alluvial sediments, Front. Earth Sci., 7, 108, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00108, 2019.
Hubert, M. and Debruyne, M.: Minimum covariance determinant, WIREs Comp. Stat., 2, 36–43, https://doi.org/10.1002/wics.61, 2010.
Jiménez, S., Mariethoz, G., Brauchler, R., and Bayer, P.: Smart pilot
points using reversible-jump Markov-chain Monte Carlo, Water Resour. Res.,
52, 3966–3983, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017922, 2016.
Journel, A. G.: Markov Models for Cross-Covariances, Math. Geol., 31,
955–964, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007553013388, 1999.
Kaufmann, O. and Martin, T.: 3D geological modelling from boreholes,
cross-sections and geological maps, application over former natural gas
storages in coal mines, Comput. Geosci., 34, 278–290,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.CAGEO.2007.09.005, 2008.
Klepikova, M. V., Le Borgne, T., Bour, O., and Davy, P.: A methodology for
using borehole temperature-depth profiles under ambient, single and
cross-borehole pumping conditions to estimate fracture hydraulic properties,
J. Hydrol., 407, 145–152, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2011.07.018, 2011.
Lai, P. and Fyfe, C.: A neural implementation of canonical correlation
analysis, Neural Networks, 12, 1391–1397,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0893-6080(99)00075-1, 1999.
Laloy, E., Hérault, R., Lee, J., Jacques, D., and Linde, N.: Inversion
using a new low-dimensional representation of complex binary geological
media based on a deep neural network, Adv. Water Resour., 110, 387–405,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ADVWATRES.2017.09.029, 2017.
Laloy, E., Hérault, R., Jacques, D., and Linde, N.: Training-Image Based
Geostatistical Inversion Using a Spatial Generative Adversarial Neural
Network, Water Resour. Res., 54, 381–406, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR022148,
2018.
Le Borgne, T., Bour, O., Paillet, F. L., and Caudal, J.-P.: Assessment of
preferential flow path connectivity and hydraulic properties at
single-borehole and cross-borehole scales in a fractured aquifer, J.
Hydrol., 328, 347–359, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2005.12.029, 2006.
Leverett, M. C., Lewis, W. B., and True, M. E.: Dimensional-model Studies of
Oil-field Behavior, T. AIME, 146, 175–193, https://doi.org/10.2118/942175-G,
1942.
Li, D.-Q., Qi, X.-H., Cao, Z.-J., Tang, X.-S., Phoon, K.-K., and Zhou, C.-B.:
Evaluating slope stability uncertainty using coupled Markov chain, Comput.
Geotech., 73, 72–82, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.COMPGEO.2015.11.021, 2016.
Liu, F. T., Ting, K. M., and Zhou, Z.: Isolation Forest, in: In ICDM '08:
Proceedings of the 2008 Eighth IEEE International Conference on Data Mining,
IEEE Computer Society, 413–422, 2008.
Lopez-Alvis, J., Hermans, T., and Nguyen, F.: A cross-validation framework to
extract data features for reducing structural uncertainty in subsurface
heterogeneity, Adv. Water Resour., 133, 103427,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ADVWATRES.2019.103427, 2019.
Marko, K., Al-Amri, N. S., and Elfeki, A. M. M.: Geostatistical analysis
using GIS for mapping groundwater quality: case study in the recharge area
of Wadi Usfan, western Saudi Arabia, Arab. J. Geosci., 7, 5239–5252,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-013-1156-2, 2014.
Neuman, S. P.: Maximum likelihood Bayesian averaging of uncertain model
predictions, Stoch. Env. Res. Risk A., 17, 291–305,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-003-0151-7, 2003.
Osher, S. and Fedkiw, R.: Signed Distance Functions, in Level Set Methods
and Dynamic Implicit Surfaces, Springer New York, New York, NY, 17–22,
2003.
Pappenberger, F., Beven, K. J., Ratto, M. and Matgen, P.: Multi-method global sensitivity analysis of flood inundation models, Adv. Water Resour., 31, 1–14, doi:10.1016/J.ADVWATRES.2007.04.009, 2008.
Park, J.: Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of
Geoscientific Predictions with Data-Driven Approaches, Stanford University,
2019.
Park, J., Yang, G., Satija, A., Scheidt, C., and Caers, J.: DGSA: A Matlab
toolbox for distance-based generalized sensitivity analysis of geoscientific
computer experiments, Comput. Geosci., 97, 15–29,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.CAGEO.2016.08.021, 2016.
Pezeshki, A., Scharf, L. L., Azimi-Sadjadi, M. R., and Lundberg, M.:
Empirical canonical correlation analysis in subspaces, in Conference Record
of the Thirty-Eighth Asilomar Conference on Signals, Systems and Computers,
1, 994–997, 2004.
Rousseeuw, P. J. and Driessen, K. Van: A Fast Algorithm for the Minimum
Covariance Determinant Estimator, Technometrics, 41, 212–223,
https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1999.10485670, 1999.
Royse, K. R.: Combining numerical and cognitive 3D modelling approaches in
order to determine the structure of the Chalk in the London Basin, Comput.
Geosci., 36, 500–511, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.CAGEO.2009.10.001, 2010.
Rühaak, W., Guadagnini, A., Geiger, S., Bär, K., Gu, Y., Aretz, A.,
Homuth, S., and Sass, I.: Upscaling thermal conductivities of sedimentary
formations for geothermal exploration, Geothermics, 58, 49–61,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GEOTHERMICS.2015.08.004, 2015.
Satija, A. and Caers, J.: Direct forecasting of subsurface flow response
from non-linear dynamic data by linear least-squares in canonical functional
principal component space, Adv. Water Resour., 77, 69–81,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ADVWATRES.2015.01.002, 2015.
Satija, A., Scheidt, C., Li, L., and Caers, J.: Direct forecasting of
reservoir performance using production data without history matching,
Comput. Geosci., 21, 315–333, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10596-017-9614-7, 2017.
Scheidt, C. Ã., Li, L., and Caers, J.: Quantifying Uncertainty in Subsurface Systems, 193–217, John Wiley & Sons, 2018.
Schölkopf, B., Platt, J. C., Shawe-Taylor, J. C., Smola, A. J., and
Williamson, R. C.: Estimating the Support of a High-Dimensional
Distribution, Neural Comput., 13, 1443–1471,
https://doi.org/10.1162/089976601750264965, 2001.
Sobol, I.: Global sensitivity indices for nonlinear mathematical models
and their Monte Carlo estimates, Math. Comput. Simulat., 55, 271–280,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4754(00)00270-6, 2001.
Sobol, I. M.: Sensitivity estimates for nonlinear mathematical models,
Math. Model. Comput. Exp., 1, 407–414, 1993.
Soltani-Mohammadi, S., Safa, M., and Mokhtari, H.: Comparison of particle
swarm optimization and simulated annealing for locating additional boreholes
considering combined variance minimization, Comput. Geosci., 95, 146–155,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.CAGEO.2016.07.020, 2016.
Spear, R. C. and Hornberger, G. M.: Eutrophication in peel inlet – II.
Identification of critical uncertainties via generalized sensitivity
analysis, Water Res., 14, 43–49, https://doi.org/10.1016/0043-1354(80)90040-8, 1980.
Vogt, C., Mottaghy, D., Wolf, A., Rath, V., Pechnig, R., and Clauser, C.:
Reducing temperature uncertainties by stochastic geothermal reservoir
modelling, Geophys. J. Int., 181, 321–333,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04498.x, 2010.
Wei, P., Lu, Z. and Song, J.: Variable importance analysis: A comprehensive
review, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe., 142, 399–432,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RESS.2015.05.018, 2015.
Wellmann, J. F., Horowitz, F. G., Schill, E., and Regenauer-Lieb, K.: Towards
incorporating uncertainty of structural data in 3D geological inversion,
Tectonophysics, 490, 141–151, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.TECTO.2010.04.022, 2010.
Yin, D. Z.: sdyinzhen/AutoBEL: AutoBEL v1.0 (Version v1.0), Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3479997, 2019.
Yin, Z., Feng, T., and MacBeth, C.: Fast assimilation of frequently acquired
4D seismic data for reservoir history matching, Comput. Geosci., 128,
30–40, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.CAGEO.2019.04.001, 2019.
Zhou, H., Gómez-Hernández, J. J., and Li, L.: Inverse methods in
hydrogeology: Evolution and recent trends, Adv. Water Resour., 63, 22–37,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ADVWATRES.2013.10.014, 2014.
Short summary
We provide completely automated Bayesian evidential learning (AutoBEL) for geological uncertainty quantification. AutoBEL focuses on model falsification, global sensitivity analysis, and statistical learning for joint model uncertainty reduction by borehole data. Application shows fast and robust uncertainty reduction in geological models and predictions for large field cases, showing its applicability in subsurface applications, e.g., groundwater, oil, gas, and geothermal or mineral resources.
We provide completely automated Bayesian evidential learning (AutoBEL) for geological...
