Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-911-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-911-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
02 Feb 2024
Model description paper |
| 02 Feb 2024
| 02 Feb 2024
GEMS v1.0: Generalizable Empirical Model of Snow Accumulation and Melt, based on daily snow mass changes in response to climate and topographic drivers
Atabek Umirbekov
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Theodor-Lieser-Str. 2, 06120 Halle (Saale), Germany
Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany
Tashkent Institute of Irrigation and Agricultural Mechanization Engineers (TIIAME), 39 Kari Niyazov Str., Tashkent, 100000, Uzbekistan
Richard Essery
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3JW, United Kingdom
Daniel Müller
Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Theodor-Lieser-Str. 2, 06120 Halle (Saale), Germany
Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany
Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human–Environment Systems (IRI THESys), Humboldt Universität-zu-Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Related authors
Atabek Umirbekov, Mayra Daniela Peña-Guerrero, Iulii Didovets, Heiko Apel, Abror Gafurov, and Daniel Müller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-174, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-174, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
In snowmelt-dominated catchments, predicting river streamflow typically relies on accumulated snowpack. Our study shows that including large-scale climate patterns like El Niño can improve these predictions. We analyzed climate oscillations, seasonal rainfall, and streamflow, then used these insights and snowpack data in a machine learning model to forecast river streamflow. This method yielded more accurate predictions, useful for long-term forecasting or when snowpack estimates are uncertain.
Georgina J. Woolley, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Vincent Vionnet, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Philip Marsh, Rosamond Tutton, Branden Walker, Matthieu Lafaysse, and David Pritchard
The Cryosphere, 18, 5685–5711, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5685-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Parameterisations of Arctic snow processes were implemented into the multi-physics ensemble version of the snow model Crocus (embedded within the Soil, Vegetation, and Snow version 2 land surface model) and evaluated at an Arctic tundra site. Optimal combinations of parameterisations that improved the simulation of density and specific surface area featured modifications that raise wind speeds to increase compaction in surface layers, prevent snowdrift, and increase viscosity in basal layers.
Richard Essery, Giulia Mazzotti, Sarah Barr, Tobias Jonas, Tristan Quaife, and Nick Rutter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2546, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How forests influence accumulation and melt of snow on the ground is of long-standing interest, but uncertainty remains in how best to model forest snow processes. We developed the Flexible Snow Model version 2 to quantify these uncertainties. In a first model demonstration, how unloading of intercepted snow from the forest canopy is represented is responsible for the largest uncertainty. Global mapping of forest distribution is also likely to be a large source of uncertainty in existing models.
Cecile B. Menard, Sirpa Rasmus, Ioanna Merkouriadi, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Annett Bartsch, Chris Derksen, Florent Domine, Marie Dumont, Dorothee Ehrich, Richard Essery, Bruce C. Forbes, Gerhard Krinner, David Lawrence, Glen Liston, Heidrun Matthes, Nick Rutter, Melody Sandells, Martin Schneebeli, and Sari Stark
The Cryosphere, 18, 4671–4686, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4671-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4671-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Computer models, like those used in climate change studies, are written by modellers who have to decide how best to construct the models in order to satisfy the purpose they serve. Using snow modelling as an example, we examine the process behind the decisions to understand what motivates or limits modellers in their decision-making. We find that the context in which research is undertaken is often more crucial than scientific limitations. We argue for more transparency in our research practice.
Melody Sandells, Nick Rutter, Kirsty Wivell, Richard Essery, Stuart Fox, Chawn Harlow, Ghislain Picard, Alexandre Roy, Alain Royer, and Peter Toose
The Cryosphere, 18, 3971–3990, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3971-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite microwave observations are used for weather forecasting. In Arctic regions this is complicated by natural emission from snow. By simulating airborne observations from in situ measurements of snow, this study shows how snow properties affect the signal within the atmosphere. Fresh snowfall between flights changed airborne measurements. Good knowledge of snow layering and structure can be used to account for the effects of snow and could unlock these data to improve forecasts.
Atabek Umirbekov, Mayra Daniela Peña-Guerrero, Iulii Didovets, Heiko Apel, Abror Gafurov, and Daniel Müller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-174, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-174, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
In snowmelt-dominated catchments, predicting river streamflow typically relies on accumulated snowpack. Our study shows that including large-scale climate patterns like El Niño can improve these predictions. We analyzed climate oscillations, seasonal rainfall, and streamflow, then used these insights and snowpack data in a machine learning model to forecast river streamflow. This method yielded more accurate predictions, useful for long-term forecasting or when snowpack estimates are uncertain.
Julien Meloche, Melody Sandells, Henning Löwe, Nick Rutter, Richard Essery, Ghislain Picard, Randall K. Scharien, Alexandre Langlois, Matthias Jaggi, Josh King, Peter Toose, Jérôme Bouffard, Alessandro Di Bella, and Michele Scagliola
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1583, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1583, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice thickness is essential for climate studies. Radar altimetry has provided sea ice thickness measurement, but uncertainty arises from interaction of the signal with the snow cover. Therefore, modelling the signal interaction with the snow is necessary to improve retrieval. A radar model was used to simulate the radar signal from the snow-covered sea ice. This work paved the way to improved physical algorithm to retrieve snow depth and sea ice thickness for radar altimeter missions.
Victoria R. Dutch, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Oliver Sonnentag, Gabriel Hould Gosselin, Melody Sandells, Chris Derksen, Branden Walker, Gesa Meyer, Richard Essery, Richard Kelly, Phillip Marsh, Julia Boike, and Matteo Detto
Biogeosciences, 21, 825–841, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-825-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We undertake a sensitivity study of three different parameters on the simulation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during the snow-covered non-growing season at an Arctic tundra site. Simulations are compared to eddy covariance measurements, with near-zero NEE simulated despite observed CO2 release. We then consider how to parameterise the model better in Arctic tundra environments on both sub-seasonal timescales and cumulatively throughout the snow-covered non-growing season.
Jean Emmanuel Sicart, Victor Ramseyer, Ghislain Picard, Laurent Arnaud, Catherine Coulaud, Guilhem Freche, Damien Soubeyrand, Yves Lejeune, Marie Dumont, Isabelle Gouttevin, Erwan Le Gac, Frédéric Berger, Jean-Matthieu Monnet, Laurent Borgniet, Éric Mermin, Nick Rutter, Clare Webster, and Richard Essery
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5121–5133, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5121-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5121-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forests strongly modify the accumulation, metamorphism and melting of snow in midlatitude and high-latitude regions. Two field campaigns during the winters 2016–17 and 2017–18 were conducted in a coniferous forest in the French Alps to study interactions between snow and vegetation. This paper presents the field site, instrumentation and collection methods. The observations include forest characteristics, meteorology, snow cover and snow interception by the canopy during precipitation events.
Kirsty Wivell, Stuart Fox, Melody Sandells, Chawn Harlow, Richard Essery, and Nick Rutter
The Cryosphere, 17, 4325–4341, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4325-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4325-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite microwave observations improve weather forecasts, but to use these observations in the Arctic, snow emission must be known. This study uses airborne and in situ snow observations to validate emissivity simulations for two- and three-layer snowpacks at key frequencies for weather prediction. We assess the impact of thickness, grain size and density in key snow layers, which will help inform development of physical snow models that provide snow profile input to emissivity simulations.
Esteban Alonso-González, Kristoffer Aalstad, Mohamed Wassim Baba, Jesús Revuelto, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, Joel Fiddes, Richard Essery, and Simon Gascoin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9127–9155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9127-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9127-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Snow cover plays an important role in many processes, but its monitoring is a challenging task. The alternative is usually to simulate the snowpack, and to improve these simulations one of the most promising options is to fuse simulations with available observations (data assimilation). In this paper we present MuSA, a data assimilation tool which facilitates the implementation of snow monitoring initiatives, allowing the assimilation of a wide variety of remotely sensed snow cover information.
Victoria R. Dutch, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Melody Sandells, Chris Derksen, Branden Walker, Gabriel Hould Gosselin, Oliver Sonnentag, Richard Essery, Richard Kelly, Phillip Marsh, Joshua King, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 16, 4201–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Measurements of the properties of the snow and soil were compared to simulations of the Community Land Model to see how well the model represents snow insulation. Simulations underestimated snow thermal conductivity and wintertime soil temperatures. We test two approaches to reduce the transfer of heat through the snowpack and bring simulated soil temperatures closer to measurements, with an alternative parameterisation of snow thermal conductivity being more appropriate.
Juha Lemmetyinen, Juval Cohen, Anna Kontu, Juho Vehviläinen, Henna-Reetta Hannula, Ioanna Merkouriadi, Stefan Scheiblauer, Helmut Rott, Thomas Nagler, Elisabeth Ripper, Kelly Elder, Hans-Peter Marshall, Reinhard Fromm, Marc Adams, Chris Derksen, Joshua King, Adriano Meta, Alex Coccia, Nick Rutter, Melody Sandells, Giovanni Macelloni, Emanuele Santi, Marion Leduc-Leballeur, Richard Essery, Cecile Menard, and Michael Kern
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3915–3945, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3915-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3915-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The manuscript describes airborne, dual-polarised X and Ku band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data collected over several campaigns over snow-covered terrain in Finland, Austria and Canada. Colocated snow and meteorological observations are also presented. The data are meant for science users interested in investigating X/Ku band radar signatures from natural environments in winter conditions.
Richard Essery, Hyungjun Kim, Libo Wang, Paul Bartlett, Aaron Boone, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Eleanor Burke, Matthias Cuntz, Bertrand Decharme, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Yeugeniy Gusev, Stefan Hagemann, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Gerhard Krinner, Matthieu Lafaysse, Yves Lejeune, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Christoph Marty, Cecile B. Menard, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, John Pomeroy, Gerd Schädler, Vladimir Semenov, Tatiana Smirnova, Sean Swenson, Dmitry Turkov, Nander Wever, and Hua Yuan
The Cryosphere, 14, 4687–4698, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are uncertain in predicting how warming changes snow cover. This paper compares 22 snow models with the same meteorological inputs. Predicted trends agree with observations at four snow research sites: winter snow cover does not start later, but snow now melts earlier in spring than in the 1980s at two of the sites. Cold regions where snow can last until late summer are predicted to be particularly sensitive to warming because the snow then melts faster at warmer times of year.
Lawrence Mudryk, María Santolaria-Otín, Gerhard Krinner, Martin Ménégoz, Chris Derksen, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Mike Brady, and Richard Essery
The Cryosphere, 14, 2495–2514, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze how well updated state-of-the-art climate models reproduce observed historical snow cover extent and snow mass and how they project that these quantities will change up to the year 2100. Overall the updated models better represent historical snow extent than previous models, and they simulate stronger historical trends in snow extent and snow mass. They project that spring snow extent will decrease by 8 % for each degree Celsius that the global surface air temperature increases.
Nick Rutter, Melody J. Sandells, Chris Derksen, Joshua King, Peter Toose, Leanne Wake, Tom Watts, Richard Essery, Alexandre Roy, Alain Royer, Philip Marsh, Chris Larsen, and Matthew Sturm
The Cryosphere, 13, 3045–3059, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3045-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3045-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Impact of natural variability in Arctic tundra snow microstructural characteristics on the capacity to estimate snow water equivalent (SWE) from Ku-band radar was assessed. Median values of metrics quantifying snow microstructure adequately characterise differences between snowpack layers. Optimal estimates of SWE required microstructural values slightly less than the measured median but tolerated natural variability for accurate estimation of SWE in shallow snowpacks.
David Walters, Anthony J. Baran, Ian Boutle, Malcolm Brooks, Paul Earnshaw, John Edwards, Kalli Furtado, Peter Hill, Adrian Lock, James Manners, Cyril Morcrette, Jane Mulcahy, Claudio Sanchez, Chris Smith, Rachel Stratton, Warren Tennant, Lorenzo Tomassini, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Simon Vosper, Martin Willett, Jo Browse, Andrew Bushell, Kenneth Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, Richard Essery, Nicola Gedney, Steven Hardiman, Ben Johnson, Colin Johnson, Andy Jones, Colin Jones, Graham Mann, Sean Milton, Heather Rumbold, Alistair Sellar, Masashi Ujiie, Michael Whitall, Keith Williams, and Mohamed Zerroukat
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1909–1963, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1909-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1909-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Global Atmosphere (GA) configurations of the Unified Model (UM) and Global Land (GL) configurations of JULES are developed for use in any global atmospheric modelling application. We describe a recent iteration of these configurations, GA7/GL7, which includes new aerosol and snow schemes and addresses the four critical errors identified in GA6. GA7/GL7 will underpin the UK's contributions to CMIP6, and hence their documentation is important.
Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, Cécile B. Ménard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, Frédérique Chéruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, Agnès Ducharne, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Charles Fierz, Josephine Ghattas, Yeugeniy Gusev, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Rachel Law, Dave Lawrence, Weiping Li, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Martin Ménégoz, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, Masashi Niwano, John Pomeroy, Mark S. Raleigh, Gerd Schaedler, Vladimir Semenov, Tanya G. Smirnova, Tobias Stacke, Ulrich Strasser, Sean Svenson, Dmitry Turkov, Tao Wang, Nander Wever, Hua Yuan, Wenyan Zhou, and Dan Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5027–5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an overview of a coordinated international experiment to determine the strengths and weaknesses in how climate models treat snow. The models will be assessed at point locations using high-quality reference measurements and globally using satellite-derived datasets. How well climate models simulate snow-related processes is important because changing snow cover is an important part of the global climate system and provides an important freshwater resource for human use.
Esteban Alonso-González, J. Ignacio López-Moreno, Simon Gascoin, Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Alba Sanmiguel-Vallelado, Francisco Navarro-Serrano, Jesús Revuelto, Antonio Ceballos, María Jesús Esteban-Parra, and Richard Essery
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 303–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-303-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-303-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new daily gridded snow depth and snow water equivalent database over the Iberian Peninsula from 1980 to 2014 structured in common elevation bands. The data have proved their consistency with in situ observations and remote sensing data (MODIS). The presented dataset may be useful for many applications, including land management, hydrometeorological studies, phenology of flora and fauna, winter tourism and risk management.
Melody Sandells, Richard Essery, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Leena Leppänen, and Juha Lemmetyinen
The Cryosphere, 11, 229–246, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-229-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-229-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study looks at a wide range of options for simulating sensor signals for satellite monitoring of water stored as snow, though an ensemble of 1323 coupled snow evolution and microwave scattering models. The greatest improvements will be made with better computer simulations of how the snow microstructure changes, followed by how the microstructure scatters radiation at microwave frequencies. Snow compaction should also be considered in systems to monitor snow mass from space.
Richard Essery, Anna Kontu, Juha Lemmetyinen, Marie Dumont, and Cécile B. Ménard
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 5, 219–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-5-219-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-5-219-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Physically based models that predict the properties of snow on the ground are used in many applications, but meteorological input data required by these models are hard to obtain in cold regions. Monitoring at the Sodankyla research station allows construction of model input and evaluation datasets covering several years for the first time in the Arctic. The data are used to show that a sophisticated snow model developed for warmer and wetter sites can perform well in very different conditions.
Sarah S. Thompson, Bernd Kulessa, Richard L. H. Essery, and Martin P. Lüthi
The Cryosphere, 10, 433–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-433-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-433-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We show that strong electrical self-potential fields are generated in melting in in situ snowpacks at Rhone Glacier and Jungfraujoch Glacier, Switzerland. We conclude that the electrical self-potential method is a promising snow and firn hydrology sensor, owing to its suitability for sensing lateral and vertical liquid water flows directly and minimally invasively, complementing established observational programs and monitoring autonomously at a low cost.
R. Essery
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3867–3876, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3867-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3867-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Models of snow on the ground need to represent processes of solar radiation absorption, heat conduction, liquid water movement and compaction in snow and transfers of heat from the atmosphere. There are many such models in use, but their wide range in complexity makes it hard to understand how differences in process representations determine differences in predictions. Processes in the factorial snow model can be switched on or off independently, allowing highly controlled numerical experiments.
S. E. Chadburn, E. J. Burke, R. L. H. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. M. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
The Cryosphere, 9, 1505–1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we use a global land-surface model to study the dynamics of Arctic permafrost. We examine the impact of new and improved processes in the model, namely soil depth and resolution, organic soils, moss and the representation of snow. These improvements make the simulated soil temperatures and thaw depth significantly more realistic. Simulations under future climate scenarios show that permafrost thaws more slowly in the new model version, but still a large amount is lost by 2100.
S. Chadburn, E. Burke, R. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1493–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Permafrost, ground that is frozen for 2 or more years, is found extensively in the Arctic. It stores large quantities of carbon, which may be released under climate warming, so it is important to include it in climate models. Here we improve the representation of permafrost in a climate model land-surface scheme, both in the numerical representation of soil and snow, and by adding the effects of organic soils and moss. Site simulations show significantly improved soil temperature and thaw depth.
E. Collier, L. I. Nicholson, B. W. Brock, F. Maussion, R. Essery, and A. B. G. Bush
The Cryosphere, 8, 1429–1444, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1429-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1429-2014, 2014
C. B. Ménard, R. Essery, and J. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2375–2392, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2375-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2375-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Hydrology
Virtual Joint Field Campaign: a framework of synthetic landscapes to assess multiscale measurement methods of water storage
SERGHEI v2.0: introducing a performance-portable, high-performance, three-dimensional variably saturated subsurface flow solver (SERGHEI-RE)
The global water resources and use model WaterGAP v2.2e: description and evaluation of modifications and new features
Generalised drought index: a novel multi-scale daily approach for drought assessment
Development and performance of a high-resolution surface wave and storm surge forecast model: application to a large lake
Deep dive into hydrologic simulations at global scale: harnessing the power of deep learning and physics-informed differentiable models (δHBV-globe1.0-hydroDL)
PyEt v1.3.1: a Python package for the estimation of potential evapotranspiration
Prediction of hysteretic matric potential dynamics using artificial intelligence: application of autoencoder neural networks
LM4-SHARC v1.0: Resolving the Catchment-scale Soil-Hillslope Aquifer-River Continuum for the GFDL Earth System Modeling Framework
Regionalization in global hydrological models and its impact on runoff simulations: a case study using WaterGAP3 (v 1.0.0)
Modelling rainfall with a Bartlett-Lewis process: pyBL (v1.0.0), a Python software package and an application with short records
The Water Table Model (WTM) v2.0.1: Coupled groundwater and dynamic lake modelling
STORM v.2: A simple, stochastic rainfall model for exploring the impacts of climate and climate change at and near the land surface in gauged watersheds
Fluvial flood inundation and socio-economic impact model based on open data
RoGeR v3.0.5 – a process-based hydrological toolbox model in Python
Coupling a large-scale glacier and hydrological model (OGGM v1.5.3 and CWatM V1.08) – towards an improved representation of mountain water resources in global assessments
An open-source refactoring of the Canadian Small Lakes Model for estimates of evaporation from medium-sized reservoirs
EvalHyd v0.1.2: a polyglot tool for the evaluation of deterministic and probabilistic streamflow predictions
Modelling water quantity and quality for integrated water cycle management with the Water Systems Integrated Modelling framework (WSIMOD) software
HGS-PDAF (version 1.0): a modular data assimilation framework for an integrated surface and subsurface hydrological model
Wflow_sbm v0.7.3, a spatially distributed hydrological model: from global data to local applications
Reservoir Assessment Tool version 3.0: a scalable and user-friendly software platform to mobilize the global water management community
HydroFATE (v1): a high-resolution contaminant fate model for the global river system
Validation of a new global irrigation scheme in the land surface model ORCHIDEE v2.2
GPEP v1.0: the Geospatial Probabilistic Estimation Package to support Earth science applications
mesas.py v1.0: a flexible Python package for modeling solute transport and transit times using StorAge Selection functions
rSHUD v2.0: advancing the Simulator for Hydrologic Unstructured Domains and unstructured hydrological modeling in the R environment
GLOBGM v1.0: a parallel implementation of a 30 arcsec PCR-GLOBWB-MODFLOW global-scale groundwater model
Development of inter-grid-cell lateral unsaturated and saturated flow model in the E3SM Land Model (v2.0)
Selecting a conceptual hydrological model using Bayes' factors computed with Replica Exchange Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Thermodynamic Integration
pyESDv1.0.1: an open-source Python framework for empirical-statistical downscaling of climate information
Representing the impact of Rhizophora mangroves on flow in a hydrodynamic model (COAWST_rh v1.0): the importance of three-dimensional root system structures
Dynamically weighted ensemble of geoscientific models via automated machine-learning-based classification
Enhancing the representation of water management in global hydrological models
NEOPRENE v1.0.1: a Python library for generating spatial rainfall based on the Neyman–Scott process
Uncertainty estimation for a new exponential-filter-based long-term root-zone soil moisture dataset from Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) surface observations
Validating the Nernst–Planck transport model under reaction-driven flow conditions using RetroPy v1.0
DynQual v1.0: a high-resolution global surface water quality model
Data space inversion for efficient uncertainty quantification using an integrated surface and sub-surface hydrologic model
Simulation of crop yield using the global hydrological model H08 (crp.v1)
How is a global sensitivity analysis of a catchment-scale, distributed pesticide transfer model performed? Application to the PESHMELBA model
iHydroSlide3D v1.0: an advanced hydrological–geotechnical model for hydrological simulation and three-dimensional landslide prediction
GEB v0.1: a large-scale agent-based socio-hydrological model – simulating 10 million individual farming households in a fully distributed hydrological model
Tracing and visualisation of contributing water sources in the LISFLOOD-FP model of flood inundation (within CAESAR-Lisflood version 1.9j-WS)
Continental-scale evaluation of a fully distributed coupled land surface and groundwater model, ParFlow-CLM (v3.6.0), over Europe
Evaluating a global soil moisture dataset from a multitask model (GSM3 v1.0) with potential applications for crop threats
SERGHEI (SERGHEI-SWE) v1.0: a performance-portable high-performance parallel-computing shallow-water solver for hydrology and environmental hydraulics
A simple, efficient, mass-conservative approach to solving Richards' equation (openRE, v1.0)
Customized deep learning for precipitation bias correction and downscaling
Implementation and sensitivity analysis of the Dam-Reservoir OPeration model (DROP v1.0) over Spain
Till Francke, Cosimo Brogi, Alby Duarte Rocha, Michael Förster, Maik Heistermann, Markus Köhli, Daniel Rasche, Marvin Reich, Paul Schattan, Lena Scheiffele, and Martin Schrön
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 819–842, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-819-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-819-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Multiple methods for measuring soil moisture beyond the point scale exist. Their validation is generally hindered by not knowing the truth. We propose a virtual framework in which this truth is fully known and the sensor observations for cosmic ray neutron sensing, remote sensing, and hydrogravimetry are simulated. This allows for the rigorous testing of these virtual sensors to understand their effectiveness and limitations.
Zhi Li, Gregor Rickert, Na Zheng, Zhibo Zhang, Ilhan Özgen-Xian, and Daniel Caviedes-Voullième
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 547–562, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-547-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-547-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce SERGHEI-RE, a 3D subsurface flow simulator with performance-portable parallel computing capabilities. SERGHEI-RE performs effectively on various computational devices: from personal computers to advanced clusters. It allows users to solve flow equations with multiple numerical schemes, making it adaptable to various hydrological scenarios. Testing results show its accuracy and performance, confirming that SERGHEI-RE is a powerful tool for hydrological research.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Sebastian Ackermann, Denise Cáceres, Martina Flörke, Helena Gerdener, Ellen Kynast, Thedini Asali Peiris, Leonie Schiebener, Maike Schumacher, and Petra Döll
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8817–8852, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing water availability and water use at the global scale is challenging but essential for a range of purposes. We describe the newest version of the global hydrological model WaterGAP, which has been used for numerous water resource assessments since 1996. We show the effects of new model features, as well as model evaluations, against water abstraction statistics and observed streamflow and water storage anomalies. The publicly available model output for several variants is described.
João António Martins Careto, Rita Margarida Cardoso, Ana Russo, Daniela Catarina André Lima, and Pedro Miguel Matos Soares
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8115–8139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a new daily drought index, the generalised drought index (GDI). The GDI not only identifies the same events as established indices but is also capable of improving their results. The index is empirically based and easy to compute, not requiring fitting the data to a probability distribution. The GDI can detect flash droughts and longer-term events, making it a versatile tool for drought monitoring.
Laura L. Swatridge, Ryan P. Mulligan, Leon Boegman, and Shiliang Shan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7751–7766, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7751-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7751-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We develop an operational forecast system, Coastlines-LO, that can simulate water levels and surface waves in Lake Ontario driven by forecasts of wind speeds and pressure fields from an atmospheric model. The model has relatively low computational requirements, and results compare well with near-real-time observations, as well as with results from other existing forecast systems. Results show that with shorter forecast lengths, storm surge and wave predictions can improve in accuracy.
Dapeng Feng, Hylke Beck, Jens de Bruijn, Reetik Kumar Sahu, Yusuke Satoh, Yoshihide Wada, Jiangtao Liu, Ming Pan, Kathryn Lawson, and Chaopeng Shen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7181–7198, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7181-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate hydrologic modeling is vital to characterizing water cycle responses to climate change. For the first time at this scale, we use differentiable physics-informed machine learning hydrologic models to simulate rainfall–runoff processes for 3753 basins around the world and compare them with purely data-driven and traditional modeling approaches. This sets a benchmark for hydrologic estimates around the world and builds foundations for improving global hydrologic simulations.
Matevž Vremec, Raoul A. Collenteur, and Steffen Birk
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7083–7103, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7083-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7083-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Geoscientists commonly use various potential evapotranpiration (PET) formulas for environmental studies, which can be prone to errors and sensitive to climate change. PyEt, a tested and open-source Python package, simplifies the application of 20 PET methods for both time series and gridded data, ensuring accurate and consistent PET estimations suitable for a wide range of environmental applications.
Nedal Aqel, Lea Reusser, Stephan Margreth, Andrea Carminati, and Peter Lehmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6949–6966, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6949-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6949-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The soil water potential (SWP) determines various soil water processes. Since remote sensing techniques cannot measure it directly, it is often deduced from volumetric water content (VWC) information. However, under dynamic field conditions, the relationship between SWP and VWC is highly ambiguous due to different factors that cannot be modeled with the classical approach. Applying a deep neural network with an autoencoder enables the prediction of the dynamic SWP.
Minki Hong, Nathaniel Chaney, Sergey Malyshev, Enrico Zorzetto, Anthony Preucil, and Elena Shevliakova
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2005, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to understand the significance of groundwater in resolving water-energy budgets in the context of Earth system processes. LM4-SHARC describes the hillslope groundwater using its emergent properties derived from streamflow observations and yields noticeable improvements in soil moisture/temperature and groundwater discharge predictions. The implication of the groundwater-mediated hydrologic interactions between hillslope and stream needs further exploration in the ESM community.
Jenny Kupzig, Nina Kupzig, and Martina Flörke
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6819–6846, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6819-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Valid simulation results from global hydrological models (GHMs) are essential, e.g., to studying climate change impacts. Adapting GHMs to ungauged basins requires regionalization, enabling valid simulations. In this study, we highlight the impact of regionalization of GHMs on runoff simulations using an ensemble of regionalization methods for WaterGAP3. We have found that regionalization leads to temporally and spatially varying uncertainty, potentially reaching up to inter-model differences.
Chi-Ling Wei, Pei-Chun Chen, Chien-Yu Tseng, Ting-Yu Dai, Yun-Ting Ho, Ching-Chun Chou, Christian Onof, and Li-Pen Wang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1918, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1918, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
pyBL is an open-source package for generating realistic rainfall time series based on the Bartlett-Lewis (BL) model. It can preserve not only standard but also extreme rainfall statistics across various timescales. Notably, compared to traditional frequency analysis methods, the BL model requires only half the record length (or even shorter) to achieve similar consistency in estimating sub-hourly rainfall extremes. This makes it a valuable tool for modelling rainfall extremes with short records.
Kerry L. Callaghan, Andrew D. Wickert, Richard Barnes, and Jacqueline Austermann
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-131, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-131, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
We present the Water Table Model (WTM), which simulates groundwater and lake levels at continental scales over millennia. Our simulations show that North America held more ground- and lake-water at the Last Glacial Maximum than in the present day – enough to lower sea level by 6 cm. We also simulate the changing water table from 21,000 to 16,000 years ago, finding that groundwater storage decreased following reduced precipitation in the model inputs. Open-source WTM code is available on Github.
Manuel F. Rios Gaona, Katerina Michaelides, and Michael Bliss Singer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5387–5412, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
STORM v.2 (short for STOchastic Rainfall Model version 2.0) is an open-source and user-friendly modelling framework for simulating rainfall fields over a basin. It also allows simulating the impact of plausible climate change either on the total seasonal rainfall or the storm’s maximum intensity.
Lukas Riedel, Thomas Röösli, Thomas Vogt, and David N. Bresch
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5291–5308, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5291-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5291-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
River floods are among the most devastating natural hazards. We propose a flood model with a statistical approach based on openly available data. The model is integrated in a framework for estimating impacts of physical hazards. Although the model only agrees moderately with satellite-detected flood extents, we show that it can be used for forecasting the magnitude of flood events in terms of socio-economic impacts and for comparing these with past events.
Robin Schwemmle, Hannes Leistert, Andreas Steinbrich, and Markus Weiler
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5249–5262, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5249-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The new process-based hydrological toolbox model, RoGeR (https://roger.readthedocs.io/), can be used to estimate the components of the hydrological cycle and the related travel times of pollutants through parts of the hydrological cycle. These estimations may contribute to effective water resources management. This paper presents the toolbox concept and provides a simple example of providing estimations to water resources management.
Sarah Hanus, Lilian Schuster, Peter Burek, Fabien Maussion, Yoshihide Wada, and Daniel Viviroli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5123–5144, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a coupling of the large-scale glacier model OGGM and the hydrological model CWatM. Projected future increase in discharge is less strong while future decrease in discharge is stronger when glacier runoff is explicitly included in the large-scale hydrological model. This is because glacier runoff is projected to decrease in nearly all basins. We conclude that an improved glacier representation can prevent underestimating future discharge changes in large river basins.
M. Graham Clark and Sean K. Carey
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4911–4922, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4911-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides validation of the Canadian Small Lakes Model (CSLM) for estimating evaporation rates from reservoirs and a refactoring of the original FORTRAN code into MATLAB and Python, which are now stored in GitHub repositories. Here we provide direct observations of the surface energy exchange obtained with an eddy covariance system to validate the CSLM. There was good agreement between observations and estimations except under specific atmospheric conditions when evaporation is low.
Thibault Hallouin, François Bourgin, Charles Perrin, Maria-Helena Ramos, and Vazken Andréassian
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4561–4578, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4561-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4561-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The evaluation of the quality of hydrological model outputs against streamflow observations is widespread in the hydrological literature. In order to improve on the reproducibility of published studies, a new evaluation tool dedicated to hydrological applications is presented. It is open source and usable in a variety of programming languages to make it as accessible as possible to the community. Thus, authors and readers alike can use the same tool to produce and reproduce the results.
Barnaby Dobson, Leyang Liu, and Ana Mijic
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4495–4513, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Water management is challenging when models don't capture the entire water cycle. We propose that using integrated models facilitates management and improves understanding. We introduce a software tool designed for this task. We discuss its foundation, how it simulates water system components and their interactions, and its customisation. We provide a flexible way to represent water systems, and we hope it will inspire more research and practical applications for sustainable water management.
Qi Tang, Hugo Delottier, Wolfgang Kurtz, Lars Nerger, Oliver S. Schilling, and Philip Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3559–3578, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3559-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed a new data assimilation framework by coupling an integrated hydrological model HydroGeoSphere with the data assimilation software PDAF. Compared to existing hydrological data assimilation systems, the advantage of our newly developed framework lies in its consideration of the physically based model; its large selection of different assimilation algorithms; and its modularity with respect to the combination of different types of observations, states and parameters.
Willem J. van Verseveld, Albrecht H. Weerts, Martijn Visser, Joost Buitink, Ruben O. Imhoff, Hélène Boisgontier, Laurène Bouaziz, Dirk Eilander, Mark Hegnauer, Corine ten Velden, and Bobby Russell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3199–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3199-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present the wflow_sbm distributed hydrological model, recently released by Deltares, as part of the Wflow.jl open-source modelling framework in the programming language Julia. Wflow_sbm has a fast runtime, making it suitable for large-scale modelling. Wflow_sbm models can be set a priori for any catchment with the Python tool HydroMT-Wflow based on globally available datasets, which results in satisfactory to good performance (without much tuning). We show this for a number of specific cases.
Sanchit Minocha, Faisal Hossain, Pritam Das, Sarath Suresh, Shahzaib Khan, George Darkwah, Hyongki Lee, Stefano Galelli, Konstantinos Andreadis, and Perry Oddo
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3137–3156, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3137-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3137-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Reservoir Assessment Tool (RAT) merges satellite data with hydrological models, enabling robust estimation of reservoir parameters like inflow, outflow, surface area, and storage changes around the world. Version 3.0 of RAT lowers the barrier of entry for new users and achieves scalability and computational efficiency. RAT 3.0 also facilitates open-source development of functions for continuous improvement to mobilize and empower the global water management community.
Heloisa Ehalt Macedo, Bernhard Lehner, Jim Nicell, and Günther Grill
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2877–2899, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2877-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2877-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Treated and untreated wastewaters are sources of contaminants of emerging concern. HydroFATE, a new global model, estimates their concentrations in surface waters, identifying streams that are most at risk and guiding monitoring/mitigation efforts to safeguard aquatic ecosystems and human health. Model predictions were validated against field measurements of the antibiotic sulfamethoxazole, with predicted concentrations exceeding ecological thresholds in more than 400 000 km of rivers worldwide.
Pedro Felipe Arboleda-Obando, Agnès Ducharne, Zun Yin, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2141–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We show a new irrigation scheme included in the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The new irrigation scheme restrains irrigation due to water shortage, includes water adduction, and represents environmental limits and facilities to access water, due to representing infrastructure in a simple way. Our results show that the new irrigation scheme helps simulate acceptable land surface conditions and fluxes in irrigated areas, even if there are difficulties due to shortcomings and limited information.
Guoqiang Tang, Andrew W. Wood, Andrew J. Newman, Martyn P. Clark, and Simon Michael Papalexiou
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1153–1173, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1153-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1153-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble geophysical datasets are crucial for understanding uncertainties and supporting probabilistic estimation/prediction. However, open-access tools for creating these datasets are limited. We have developed the Python-based Geospatial Probabilistic Estimation Package (GPEP). Through several experiments, we demonstrate GPEP's ability to estimate precipitation, temperature, and snow water equivalent. GPEP will be a useful tool to support uncertainty analysis in Earth science applications.
Ciaran J. Harman and Esther Xu Fei
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 477–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-477-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-477-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over the last 10 years, scientists have developed StorAge Selection: a new way of modeling how material is transported through complex systems. Here, we present some new, easy-to-use, flexible, and very accurate code for implementing this method. We show that, in cases where we know exactly what the answer should be, our code gets the right answer. We also show that our code is closer than some other codes to the right answer in an important way: it conserves mass.
Lele Shu, Paul Ullrich, Xianhong Meng, Christopher Duffy, Hao Chen, and Zhaoguo Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 497–527, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-497-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our team developed rSHUD v2.0, a toolkit that simplifies the use of the SHUD, a model simulating water movement in the environment. We demonstrated its effectiveness in two watersheds, one in the USA and one in China. The toolkit also facilitated the creation of the Global Hydrological Data Cloud, a platform for automatic data processing and model deployment, marking a significant advancement in hydrological research.
Jarno Verkaik, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink, Hai Xiang Lin, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 275–300, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-275-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-275-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the parallel PCR-GLOBWB global-scale groundwater model at 30 arcsec resolution (~1 km at the Equator). Named GLOBGM v1.0, this model is a follow-up of the 5 arcmin (~10 km) model, aiming for a higher-resolution simulation of worldwide fresh groundwater reserves under climate change and excessive pumping. For a long transient simulation using a parallel prototype of MODFLOW 6, we show that our implementation is efficient for a relatively low number of processor cores.
Han Qiu, Gautam Bisht, Lingcheng Li, Dalei Hao, and Donghui Xu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 143–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-143-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-143-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed and validated an inter-grid-cell lateral groundwater flow model for both saturated and unsaturated zone in the ELMv2.0 framework. The developed model was benchmarked against PFLOTRAN, a 3D subsurface flow and transport model and showed comparable performance with PFLOTRAN. The developed model was also applied to the Little Washita experimental watershed. The spatial pattern of simulated groundwater table depth agreed well with the global groundwater table benchmark dataset.
Damian N. Mingo, Remko Nijzink, Christophe Ley, and Jack S. Hale
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2865, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2865, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrologists are often faced with selecting amongst a set of competing models with different numbers of parameters and ability to fit available data. The Bayes’ factor is a tool that can be used to compare models, however it is very difficult to compute the Bayes’ factor numerically. In our paper we explore and develop highly efficient algorithms for computing the Bayes’ factor of hydrological systems, which will bring this useful tool for selecting models to everyday hydrological practice.
Daniel Boateng and Sebastian G. Mutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6479–6514, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6479-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6479-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present an open-source Python framework for performing empirical-statistical downscaling of climate information, such as precipitation. The user-friendly package comprises all the downscaling cycles including data preparation, model selection, training, and evaluation, designed in an efficient and flexible manner, allowing for quick and reproducible downscaling products. The framework would contribute to climate change impact assessments by generating accurate high-resolution climate data.
Masaya Yoshikai, Takashi Nakamura, Eugene C. Herrera, Rempei Suwa, Rene Rollon, Raghab Ray, Keita Furukawa, and Kazuo Nadaoka
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5847–5863, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Due to complex root system structures, representing the impacts of Rhizophora mangroves on flow in hydrodynamic models has been challenging. This study presents a new drag and turbulence model that leverages an empirical model for root systems. The model can be applied without rigorous measurements of root structures and showed high performance in flow simulations; this may provide a better understanding of hydrodynamics and related transport processes in Rhizophora mangrove forests.
Hao Chen, Tiejun Wang, Yonggen Zhang, Yun Bai, and Xi Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5685–5701, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Effectively assembling multiple models for approaching a benchmark solution remains a long-standing issue for various geoscience domains. We here propose an automated machine learning-assisted ensemble framework (AutoML-Ens) that attempts to resolve this challenge. Results demonstrate the great potential of AutoML-Ens for improving estimations due to its two unique features, i.e., assigning dynamic weights for candidate models and taking full advantage of AutoML-assisted workflow.
Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Fuqiang Tian, Thomas Wild, Mengqi Zhao, Sean Turner, A. F. M. Kamal Chowdhury, Chris R. Vernon, Hongchang Hu, Yuan Zhuang, Mohamad Hejazi, and Hong-Yi Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5449–5472, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5449-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5449-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Most existing global hydrologic models do not explicitly represent hydropower reservoirs. We are introducing a new water management module to Xanthos that distinguishes between the operational characteristics of irrigation, hydropower, and flood control reservoirs. We show that this explicit representation of hydropower reservoirs can lead to a significantly more realistic simulation of reservoir storage and releases in over 44 % of the hydropower reservoirs included in this study.
Javier Diez-Sierra, Salvador Navas, and Manuel del Jesus
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5035–5048, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5035-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5035-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
NEOPRENE is an open-source, freely available library allowing scientists and practitioners to generate synthetic time series and maps of rainfall. These outputs will help to explore plausible events that were never observed in the past but may occur in the near future and to generate possible future events under climate change conditions. The paper shows how to use the library to downscale daily precipitation and how to use synthetic generation to improve our characterization of extreme events.
Adam Pasik, Alexander Gruber, Wolfgang Preimesberger, Domenico De Santis, and Wouter Dorigo
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4957–4976, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4957-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We apply the exponential filter (EF) method to satellite soil moisture retrievals to estimate the water content in the unobserved root zone globally from 2002–2020. Quality assessment against an independent dataset shows satisfactory results. Error characterization is carried out using the standard uncertainty propagation law and empirically estimated values of EF model structural uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. This is followed by analysis of temporal uncertainty variations.
Po-Wei Huang, Bernd Flemisch, Chao-Zhong Qin, Martin O. Saar, and Anozie Ebigbo
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4767–4791, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4767-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Water in natural environments consists of many ions. Ions are electrically charged and exert electric forces on each other. We discuss whether the electric forces are relevant in describing mixing and reaction processes in natural environments. By comparing our computer simulations to lab experiments in literature, we show that the electric interactions between ions can play an essential role in mixing and reaction processes, in which case they should not be neglected in numerical modeling.
Edward R. Jones, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Niko Wanders, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Ludovicus P. H. van Beek, and Michelle T. H. van Vliet
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4481–4500, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
DynQual is a new high-resolution global water quality model for simulating total dissolved solids, biological oxygen demand and fecal coliform as indicators of salinity, organic pollution and pathogen pollution, respectively. Output data from DynQual can supplement the observational record of water quality data, which is highly fragmented across space and time, and has the potential to inform assessments in a broad range of fields including ecological, human health and water scarcity studies.
Hugo Delottier, John Doherty, and Philip Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4213–4231, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4213-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4213-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Long run times are usually a barrier to the quantification and reduction of predictive uncertainty with complex hydrological models. Data space inversion (DSI) provides an alternative and highly model-run-efficient method for uncertainty quantification. This paper demonstrates DSI's ability to robustly quantify predictive uncertainty and extend the methodology to provide practical metrics that can guide data acquisition and analysis to achieve goals of decision-support modelling.
Zhipin Ai and Naota Hanasaki
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3275–3290, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3275-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3275-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Simultaneously simulating food production and the requirements and availability of water resources in a spatially explicit manner within a single framework remains challenging on a global scale. Here, we successfully enhanced the global hydrological model H08 that considers human water use and management to simulate the yields of four major staple crops: maize, wheat, rice, and soybean. Our improved model will be beneficial for advancing global food–water nexus studies in the future.
Emilie Rouzies, Claire Lauvernet, Bruno Sudret, and Arthur Vidard
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3137–3163, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3137-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3137-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Water and pesticide transfer models are complex and should be simplified to be used in decision support. Indeed, these models simulate many spatial processes in interaction, involving a large number of parameters. Sensitivity analysis allows us to select the most influential input parameters, but it has to be adapted to spatial modelling. This study will identify relevant methods that can be transposed to any hydrological and water quality model and improve the fate of pesticide knowledge.
Guoding Chen, Ke Zhang, Sheng Wang, Yi Xia, and Lijun Chao
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2915–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we developed a novel modeling system called iHydroSlide3D v1.0 by coupling a modified a 3D landslide model with a distributed hydrology model. The model is able to apply flexibly different simulating resolutions for hydrological and slope stability submodules and gain a high computational efficiency through parallel computation. The test results in the Yuehe River basin, China, show a good predicative capability for cascading flood–landslide events.
Jens A. de Bruijn, Mikhail Smilovic, Peter Burek, Luca Guillaumot, Yoshihide Wada, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2437–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a computer simulation model of the hydrological system and human system, which can simulate the behaviour of individual farmers and their interactions with the water system at basin scale to assess how the systems have evolved and are projected to evolve in the future. For example, we can simulate the effect of subsidies provided on investment in adaptation measures and subsequent effects in the hydrological system, such as a lowering of the groundwater table or reservoir level.
Matthew D. Wilson and Thomas J. Coulthard
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2415–2436, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2415-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2415-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
During flooding, the sources of water that inundate a location can influence impacts such as pollution. However, methods to trace water sources in flood events are currently only available in complex, computationally expensive hydraulic models. We propose a simplified method which can be added to efficient, reduced-complexity model codes, enabling an improved understanding of flood dynamics and its impacts. We demonstrate its application for three sites at a range of spatial and temporal scales.
Bibi S. Naz, Wendy Sharples, Yueling Ma, Klaus Goergen, and Stefan Kollet
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1617–1639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1617-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is challenging to apply a high-resolution integrated land surface and groundwater model over large spatial scales. In this paper, we demonstrate the application of such a model over a pan-European domain at 3 km resolution and perform an extensive evaluation of simulated water states and fluxes by comparing with in situ and satellite data. This study can serve as a benchmark and baseline for future studies of climate change impact projections and for hydrological forecasting.
Jiangtao Liu, David Hughes, Farshid Rahmani, Kathryn Lawson, and Chaopeng Shen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1553–1567, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1553-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Under-monitored regions like Africa need high-quality soil moisture predictions to help with food production, but it is not clear if soil moisture processes are similar enough around the world for data-driven models to maintain accuracy. We present a deep-learning-based soil moisture model that learns from both in situ data and satellite data and performs better than satellite products at the global scale. These results help us apply our model globally while better understanding its limitations.
Daniel Caviedes-Voullième, Mario Morales-Hernández, Matthew R. Norman, and Ilhan Özgen-Xian
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 977–1008, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-977-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-977-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces the SERGHEI framework and a solver for shallow-water problems. Such models, often used for surface flow and flood modelling, are computationally intense. In recent years the trends to increase computational power have changed, requiring models to adapt to new hardware and new software paradigms. SERGHEI addresses these challenges, allowing surface flow simulation to be enabled on the newest and upcoming consumer hardware and supercomputers very efficiently.
Andrew M. Ireson, Raymond J. Spiteri, Martyn P. Clark, and Simon A. Mathias
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 659–677, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-659-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-659-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Richards' equation (RE) is used to describe the movement and storage of water in a soil profile and is a component of many hydrological and earth-system models. Solving RE numerically is challenging due to the non-linearities in the properties. Here, we present a simple but effective and mass-conservative solution to solving RE, which is ideal for teaching/learning purposes but also useful in prototype models that are used to explore alternative process representations.
Fang Wang, Di Tian, and Mark Carroll
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 535–556, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-535-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-535-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Gridded precipitation datasets suffer from biases and coarse resolutions. We developed a customized deep learning (DL) model to bias-correct and downscale gridded precipitation data using radar observations. The results showed that the customized DL model can generate improved precipitation at fine resolutions where regular DL and statistical methods experience challenges. The new model can be used to improve precipitation estimates, especially for capturing extremes at smaller scales.
Malak Sadki, Simon Munier, Aaron Boone, and Sophie Ricci
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 427–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-427-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting water resource evolution is a key challenge for the coming century.
Anthropogenic impacts on water resources, and particularly the effects of dams and reservoirs on river flows, are still poorly known and generally neglected in global hydrological studies. A parameterized reservoir model is reproduced to compute monthly releases in Spanish anthropized river basins. For global application, an exhaustive sensitivity analysis of the model parameters is performed on flows and volumes.
Cited articles
Armstrong, R. L., Rittger, K., Brodzik, M. J., Racoviteanu, A., Barrett, A. P., Khalsa, S.-J. S., Raup, B., Hill, A. F., Khan, A. L., Wilson, A. M., Kayastha, R. B., Fetterer, F., and Armstrong, B.: Runoff from glacier ice and seasonal snow in High Asia: separating melt water sources in river flow, Reg. Environ. Change, 19, 1249–1261, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1429-0, 2019.
Aschauer, J., Michel, A., Jonas, T., and Marty, C.: An empirical model to calculate snow depth from daily snow water equivalent: SWE2HS 1.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4063–4081, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4063-2023, 2023.
Awad, M. and Khanna, R.: Support Vector Regression, in: Efficient Learning Machines, Apress, Berkeley, CA, 67–80, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4302-5990-9_4, 2015.
Barnett, T. P., Adam, J. C., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Nature, 438, 303–309, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04141, 2005.
Bavera, D., Bavay, M., Jonas, T., Lehning, M., and De Michele, C.: A comparison between two statistical and a physically-based model in snow water equivalent mapping, Adv. Water Resour., 63, 167–178, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2013.11.011, 2014.
Beniston, M.: Extreme climatic events and their impacts: Examples from the swiss alps, in: Climate Extremes and Society, edited by: Diaz, H. and Park, G., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England, 147–164, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511535840.010, 2008.
Beven, K.: Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling, Adv. Water Resour., 16, 41–51, https://doi.org/10.1016/0309-1708(93)90028-E, 1993.
Beven, K.: A manifesto for the equifinality thesis, J. Hydrol., 320, 18–36, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.007, 2006.
Boniface, K., Braun, J. J., McCreight, J. L., and Nievinski, F. G.: Comparison of Snow Data Assimilation System with GPS reflectometry snow depth in the Western United States, Hydrol. Process., 29, 2425–2437, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10346, 2015.
Borisov, V., Leemann, T., Seßler, K., Haug, J., Pawelczyk, M., and Kasneci, G.: Deep Neural Networks and Tabular Data: A Survey, IEEE T. Neur. Net. Learn., 1–21, https://doi.org/10.1109/TNNLS.2022.3229161, 2022.
Branco, P., Torgo, L., and Ribeiro, R. P.: A Survey of Predictive Modeling on Imbalanced Domains, ACM Comput. Surv., 49, 31, https://doi.org/10.1145/2907070, 2016.
Brown, C. R., Domonkos, B., Brosten, T., DeMarco, T., and Rebentisch, A.: Transformation of the SNOTEL Temperature Record – Methodology and Implications, 87th Annual Western Snow Conference, https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2023-04/Transformation of SNOTEL Temperature - Methodology and Implications.pdf (last access: 31 January 2024), 2019.
Broxton, P. D., van Leeuwen, W. J. D., and Biederman, J. A.: Improving Snow Water Equivalent Maps With Machine Learning of Snow Survey and Lidar Measurements, Water Resour. Res., 55, 3739–3757, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024146, 2019.
Carletti, F., Michel, A., Casale, F., Burri, A., Bocchiola, D., Bavay, M., and Lehning, M.: A comparison of hydrological models with different level of complexity in Alpine regions in the context of climate change, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3447–3475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3447-2022, 2022.
Chase, R. J., Harrison, D. R., Burke, A., Lackmann, G. M., and McGovern, A.: A Machine Learning Tutorial for Operational Meteorology. Part I: Traditional Machine Learning, Weather Forecast., 37, 1509–1529, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0070.1, 2022.
Daudt, R. C., Wulf, H., Hafner, E. D., Bühler, Y., Schindler, K., and Wegner, J. D.: Snow depth estimation at country-scale with high spatial and temporal resolution, ISPRS J. Photogramm., 197, 105–121, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2023.01.017, 2023.
Dickerson-Lange, S. E., Vano, J. A., Gersonde, R., and Lundquist, J. D.: Ranking Forest Effects on Snow Storage: A Decision Tool for Forest Management, Water Resour. Res., 57, e2020WR027926, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR027926, 2021.
Di Marco, N., Avesani, D., Righetti, M., Zaramella, M., Majone, B., and Borga, M.: Reducing hydrological modelling uncertainty by using MODIS snow cover data and a topography-based distribution function snowmelt model, J. Hydrol., 599, 126020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126020, 2021.
Duan, S., Ullrich, P., Risser, M., and Rhoades, A.: Using Temporal Deep Learning Models to Estimate Daily Snow Water Equivalent over the Rocky Mountains, ESS Open Archive [preprint], https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10511321.2, 2023.
Essery, R.: Understanding and getting started with physically based snowmelt models, https://iahs.info/uploads/Commissions/ICSIH/ICSIH Understanding physically based snowmelt models.pdf (last access: 29 January 2024), 2019.
Essery, R., Morin, S., Lejeune, Y., and B Ménard, C.: A comparison of 1701 snow models using observations from an alpine site, Adv. Water Resour., 55, 131–148, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.07.013, 2013.
Fisher, A., Rudin, C., and Dominici, F.: All Models are Wrong, but Many are Useful: Learning a Variable's Importance by Studying an Entire Class of Prediction Models Simultaneously, J. Mach. Learn. Res., 20, 1–81, 2019.
Forsythe, W. C., Rykiel, E. J., Stahl, R. S., Wu, H., and Schoolfield, R. M.: A model comparison for daylength as a function of latitude and day of year, Ecol. Model., 80, 87–95, https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3800(94)00034-F, 1995.
Greenwell, B. M. and Boehmke, B. C.: Variable Importance Plots - An Introduction to the vip Package, R J., 12, 343, https://doi.org/10.32614/RJ-2020-013, 2020.
Greenwell, B. M., Boehmke, B. C., and McCarthy, A. J.: A Simple and Effective Model-Based Variable Importance Measure, arXiv preprint arXiv:1805.04755, 1–27, 2018
Günther, D., Marke, T., Essery, R., and Strasser, U.: Uncertainties in Snowpack Simulations – Assessing the Impact of Model Structure, Parameter Choice, and Forcing Data Error on Point-Scale Energy Balance Snow Model Performance, Water Resour. Res., 55, 2779–2800, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR023403, 2019.
Günther, D., Hanzer, F., Warscher, M., Essery, R., and Strasser, U.: Including Parameter Uncertainty in an Intercomparison of Physically-Based Snow Models, Front. Earth Sci., 8, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.542599, 2020.
Gyawali, D. R. and Bárdossy, A.: Development and parameter estimation of snowmelt models using spatial snow-cover observations from MODIS, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3055–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3055-2022, 2022.
Hernanz, A., García-Valero, J. A., Domínguez, M., and Rodríguez-Camino, E.: A critical view on the suitability of machine learning techniques to downscale climate change projections: Illustration for temperature with a toy experiment, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 23, e1087, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1087, 2022.
Hijmans, R. J.: terra: Spatial Data Analysis, https://cran.r-project.org/package=terra (last access: 29 January 2024), 2023.
Hill, D. F., Burakowski, E. A., Crumley, R. L., Keon, J., Hu, J. M., Arendt, A. A., Wikstrom Jones, K., and Wolken, G. J.: Converting snow depth to snow water equivalent using climatological variables, The Cryosphere, 13, 1767–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1767-2019, 2019.
Hock, R.: Temperature index melt modelling in mountain areas, J. Hydrol., 282, 104–115, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00257-9, 2003.
Horn, J. E. and Schulz, K.: Spatial extrapolation of light use efficiency model parameters to predict gross primary production, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 3, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011MS000070, 2011.
Immerzeel, W. W., Lutz, A. F., Andrade, M., Bahl, A., Biemans, H., Bolch, T., Hyde, S., Brumby, S., Davies, B. J., Elmore, A. C., Emmer, A., Feng, M., Fernández, A., Haritashya, U., Kargel, J. S., Koppes, M., Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., Kulkarni, A. V., Mayewski, P. A., Nepal, S., Pacheco, P., Painter, T. H., Pellicciotti, F., Rajaram, H., Rupper, S., Sinisalo, A., Shrestha, A. B., Viviroli, D., Wada, Y., Xiao, C., Yao, T., and Baillie, J. E. M.: Importance and vulnerability of the world's water towers, Nature, 577, 364–369, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1822-y, 2020.
Karger, D. N., Lange, S., Hari, C., Reyer, C. P. O., and Zimmermann, N. E.: CHELSA-W5E5 v1.0: W5E5 v1.0 downscaled with CHELSA v2.0, ISIMIP Repository [data set], https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.836809.3, 2022.
Karger, D. N., Lange, S., Hari, C., Reyer, C. P. O., Conrad, O., Zimmermann, N. E., and Frieler, K.: CHELSA-W5E5: daily 1 km meteorological forcing data for climate impact studies, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2445–2464, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2445-2023, 2023.
Kim, M. and Kim, J.: Extending the coverage area of regional ionosphere maps using a support vector machine algorithm, Ann. Geophys., 37, 77–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-77-2019, 2019.
King, F., Erler, A. R., Frey, S. K., and Fletcher, C. G.: Application of machine learning techniques for regional bias correction of snow water equivalent estimates in Ontario, Canada, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4887–4902, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4887-2020, 2020.
Kirchner, P. B., Bales, R. C., Molotch, N. P., Flanagan, J., and Guo, Q.: LiDAR measurement of seasonal snow accumulation along an elevation gradient in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4261–4275, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4261-2014, 2014.
Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., Stigter, E. E., Yao, T., and Immerzeel, W. W.: Climate change decisive for Asia's snow meltwater supply, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 591–597, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01074-x, 2021.
Kumar, M., Marks, D., Dozier, J., Reba, M., and Winstral, A.: Evaluation of distributed hydrologic impacts of temperature-index and energy-based snow models, Adv. Water Resour., 56, 77–89, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2013.03.006, 2013.
Landry, C. C., Buck, K. A., Raleigh, M. S., and Clark, M. P.: Mountain system monitoring at Senator Beck Basin, San Juan Mountains, Colorado: A new integrative data source to develop and evaluate models of snow and hydrologic processes, Water Resour. Res., 50, 1773–1788, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR013711, 2014.
Li, D., Lettenmaier, D. P., Margulis, S. A., and Andreadis, K.: The Role of Rain-on-Snow in Flooding Over the Conterminous United States, Water Resour. Res., 55, 8492–8513, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR024950, 2019.
Link, T., Jonas, T., Mcphee, J., Skiles, M., and Marks, D.: Understanding strengths and limitations of temperature-index snowmelt models, https://iahs.info/uploads/Commissions/ICSIH/ICSIH snow modeling article FINAL.pdf (last access: 31 January 2024), 2019.
Magnusson, J., Farinotti, D., Jonas, T., and Bavay, M.: Quantitative evaluation of different hydrological modelling approaches in a partly glacierized Swiss watershed, Hydrol. Process., 25, 2071–2084, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7958, 2011.
Magnusson, J., Wever, N., Essery, R., Helbig, N., Winstral, A., and Jonas, T.: Evaluating snow models with varying process representations for hydrological applications, Water Resour. Res., 51, 2707–2723, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016498, 2015.
Mankin, J. S., Viviroli, D., Singh, D., Hoekstra, A. Y., and Diffenbaugh, N. S.: The potential for snow to supply human water demand in the present and future, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 114016, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114016, 2015.
Menard, C. and Essery, R.: ESM-SnowMIP meteorological and evaluation datasets at ten reference sites (in situ and bias corrected reanalysis data), PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.897575, 2019.
Ménard, C. B., Essery, R., Barr, A., Bartlett, P., Derry, J., Dumont, M., Fierz, C., Kim, H., Kontu, A., Lejeune, Y., Marks, D., Niwano, M., Raleigh, M., Wang, L., and Wever, N.: Meteorological and evaluation datasets for snow modelling at 10 reference sites: description of in situ and bias-corrected reanalysis data, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 865–880, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-865-2019, 2019.
Menard, C. B., Essery, R., Krinner, G., Arduini, G., Bartlett, P., Boone, A., Brutel-Vuilmet, C., Burke, E., Cuntz, M., Dai, Y., Decharme, B., Dutra, E., Fang, X., Fierz, C., Gusev, Y., Hagemann, S., Haverd, V., Kim, H., Lafaysse, M., Marke, T., Nasonova, O., Nitta, T., Niwano, M., Pomeroy, J., Schädler, G., Semenov, V. A., Smirnova, T., Strasser, U., Swenson, S., Turkov, D., Wever, N., and Yuan, H.: Scientific and Human Errors in a Snow Model Intercomparison, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 102, E61–E79, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0329.1, 2021.
Meyer, D., Dimitriadou, E., Hornik, K., Weingessel, A., and Leisch, F.: e1071: Misc Functions of the Department of Statistics, Probability Theory Group (Formerly: E1071), TU Wien, https://cran.r-project.org/package=e1071 (last access: 31 January 2024), 2023.
Mital, U., Dwivedi, D., Özgen-Xian, I., Brown, J. B., and Steefel, C. I.: Modeling Spatial Distribution of Snow Water Equivalent by Combining Meteorological and Satellite Data with Lidar Maps, Artif. Intell. Earth Syst., 1, e220010, https://doi.org/10.1175/AIES-D-22-0010.1, 2022.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V: River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I – A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6, 1970.
Ohmura, A.: Physical Basis for the Temperature-Based Melt-Index Method, J. Appl. Meteorol., 40, 753–761, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040<0753:PBFTTB>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Oyler, J. W., Dobrowski, S. Z., Ballantyne, A. P., Klene, A. E., and Running, S. W.: Artificial amplification of warming trends across the mountains of the western United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 153–161, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062803, 2015.
Parajka, J. and Blöschl, G.: The value of MODIS snow cover data in validating and calibrating conceptual hydrologic models, J. Hydrol., 358, 240–258, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.06.006, 2008.
Pepin, N. C., Losleben, M., Hartman, M., and Chowanski, K.: A Comparison of SNOTEL and GHCN/CRU Surface Temperatures with Free-Air Temperatures at High Elevations in the Western United States: Data Compatibility and Trends, J. Climate, 18, 1967–1985, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3375.1, 2005.
R Core Team: R: A language and environment for statistical computing, https://www.r-project.org/ (last access: 31 January 2024), 2020.
Riggs, G., Hall, D., and Salomonson, V.: MODIS snow products user guide to collection 6.1, https://nsidc.org/sites/default/files/c61_modis_snow_user_guide.pdf (last access: 31 January 2024), 2019.
Santi, E., De Gregorio, L., Pettinato, S., Cuozzo, G., Jacob, A., Notarnicola, C., Günther, D., Strasser, U., Cigna, F., Tapete, D., and Paloscia, S.: On the Use of COSMO-SkyMed X-Band SAR for Estimating Snow Water Equivalent in Alpine Areas: A Retrieval Approach Based on Machine Learning and Snow Models, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 60, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2022.3191409, 2022.
Scalzitti, J., Strong, C., and Kochanski, A. K.: A 26 year high-resolution dynamical downscaling over the Wasatch Mountains: Synoptic effects on winter precipitation performance, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 3224–3240, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024497, 2016.
Sexstone, G. A., Clow, D. W., Fassnacht, S. R., Liston, G. E., Hiemstra, C. A., Knowles, J. F., and Penn, C. A.: Snow Sublimation in Mountain Environments and Its Sensitivity to Forest Disturbance and Climate Warming, Water Resour. Res., 54, 1191–1211, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR021172, 2018.
Shakoor, A., Burri, A., Bavay, M., Ejaz, N., Ghumman, A. R., Comola, F., and Lehning, M.: Hydrological response of two high altitude Swiss catchments to energy balance and temperature index melt schemes, Polar Sci., 17, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2018.06.007, 2018.
Shao, D., Li, H., Wang, J., Hao, X., Che, T., and Ji, W.: Reconstruction of a daily gridded snow water equivalent product for the land region above 45° N based on a ridge regression machine learning approach, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 795–809, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-795-2022, 2022.
Shwartz-Ziv, R. and Armon, A.: Tabular data: Deep learning is not all you need, Inf. Fusion, 81, 84–90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inffus.2021.11.011, 2022.
Sturm, M., Goldstein, M. A., and Parr, C.: Water and life from snow: A trillion dollar science question, Water Resour. Res., 53, 3534–3544, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020840, 2017.
Sun, N., Yan, H., Wigmosta, M. S., Lundquist, J., Dickerson-Lange, S., and Zhou, T.: Forest Canopy Density Effects on Snowpack Across the Climate Gradients of the Western United States Mountain Ranges, Water Resour. Res., 58, e2020WR029194, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR029194, 2022.
Terzago, S., Andreoli, V., Arduini, G., Balsamo, G., Campo, L., Cassardo, C., Cremonese, E., Dolia, D., Gabellani, S., von Hardenberg, J., Morra di Cella, U., Palazzi, E., Piazzi, G., Pogliotti, P., and Provenzale, A.: Sensitivity of snow models to the accuracy of meteorological forcings in mountain environments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4061–4090, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4061-2020, 2020.
Theobald, D. M., Harrison-Atlas, D., Monahan, W. B., and Albano, C. M.: Ecologically-Relevant Maps of Landforms and Physiographic Diversity for Climate Adaptation Planning, PLoS One, 10, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0143619, 2015.
Tong, R., Parajka, J., Széles, B., Greimeister-Pfeil, I., Vreugdenhil, M., Komma, J., Valent, P., and Blöschl, G.: The value of satellite soil moisture and snow cover data for the transfer of hydrological model parameters to ungauged sites, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1779–1799, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1779-2022, 2022.
Umirbekov, A., Essery, R., and Müller, D.: GEMS: Generalizable empirical model of snow accumulation and melt (version 1.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10161423, 2023.
USDA: Chapter 6 Data Management, in: Part 622 Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecasting, National Engineering Handbook, Natural Resources Conservation Service, USDA, https://directives.sc.egov.usda.gov/35529.wba (last access: 31 January 2024), 2014.
USDA: Air & Water Database Report Generator v2.0, https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/reportGenerator/ (last access: 31 January 2024), 2016.
USDA: SNOTEL Historical Air Temperature Bias Correction Metadata, https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/resources/guides-and-instructions/air-temperature-bias-correction (last access: 29 January 2024), 2019.
Vafakhah, M., Nasiri Khiavi, A., Janizadeh, S., and Ganjkhanlo, H.: Evaluating different machine learning algorithms for snow water equivalent prediction, Earth Sci. Inf., 15, 2431–2445, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-022-00846-z, 2022.
Vapnik, V. N.: The Nature of Statistical Learning, I., Springer, New York, NY, USA, 224 pp., https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-2440-0, 1995.
Vert, J. P., Tsuda, K., and Schölkopf, B.: A Primer on Kernel Methods, in: Kernel Methods in Computational Biology, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, USA, 35–70, https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/4057.003.0004, 2004.
Wang, Y.-H., Gupta, H. V., Zeng, X., and Niu, G.-Y.: Exploring the Potential of Long Short-Term Memory Networks for Improving Understanding of Continental- and Regional-Scale Snowpack Dynamics, Water Resour. Res., 58, e2021WR031033, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR031033, 2022.
Wickham, H., François, R., Henry, L., Müller, K., and Vaughan, D.: dplyr: A Grammar of Data Manipulation, https://cran.r-project.org/package=dplyr, 2023.
Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.: hydroGOF: Goodness-of-fit functions for comparison of simulated and observed hydrological time series, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.839854, 2020.
Zhang, T.: Influence of the seasonal snow cover on the ground thermal regime: An overview, Rev. Geophys., 43, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004RG000157, 2005.
Short summary
We present a parsimonious snow model which simulates snow mass without the need for extensive calibration. The model is based on a machine learning algorithm that has been trained on diverse set of daily observations of snow accumulation or melt, along with corresponding climate and topography data. We validated the model using in situ data from numerous new locations. The model provides a promising solution for accurate snow mass estimation across regions where in situ data are limited.
We present a parsimonious snow model which simulates snow mass without the need for extensive...
