Articles | Volume 14, issue 7
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4283–4305, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4283–4305, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021

Development and technical paper 08 Jul 2021

Development and technical paper | 08 Jul 2021

Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3

Tian Tian et al.

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Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Cited articles

Allard, R. A., Farrell, S. L., Hebert, D. A., Johnston, W. F., Li, L., Kurtz, N. T., Phelps, M. W., Posey, P. G., Tilling, R., Ridout, A., and Wallcraft, A. J.: Utilizing CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness to initialize a coupled ice-ocean modeling system, Adv. Space Res., 62, 1265–1280, 2018. a
Armitage, T. W., Manucharyan, G. E., Petty, A. A., Kwok, R., and Thompson, A. F.: Enhanced eddy activity in the Beaufort Gyre in response to sea ice loss, Nat. Commun., 11, 1–8, 2020. a, b, c, d
Årthun, M., Eldevik, T., Viste, E., Drange, H., Furevik, T., Johnson, H. L., and Keenlyside, N. S.: Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean, Nat. Commun., 8, 15875, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15875, 2017. a, b
Bitz, C. M., Battisti, D., Moritz, R., and Beesley, J.: Low-frequency variability in the Arctic atmosphere, sea ice, and upper-ocean climate system, J. Climate, 9, 394–408, 1996. a
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E. and Bitz, C. M.: Characteristics of Arctic sea-ice thickness variability in GCMs, J. Climate, 27, 8244–8258, 2014. a, b
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Three decadal prediction experiments with EC-Earth3 are performed to investigate the impact of ocean, sea ice concentration and thickness initialization, respectively. We find that the persistence of perennial thick ice in the central Arctic can affect the sea ice predictability in its adjacent waters via advection process or wind, despite those regions being seasonally ice free during two recent decades. This has implications for the coming decades as the thinning of Arctic sea ice continues.