Articles | Volume 9, issue 5
Methods for assessment of models
04 May 2016
Methods for assessment of models |  | 04 May 2016

Large ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques

David Pollard, Won Chang, Murali Haran, Patrick Applegate, and Robert DeConto

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Cited articles

Anderson, J. B., Conway, H., Bart, P. J., Witus, A. E., Greenwood, S. L., McKay, R. M., Hall, B. L., Ackert, R. P., Licht, K., Jakobsson M., and Stone, J. O.: Ross Sea paleo-ice sheet drainage and deglacial history during and since the LGM, Quaternary Sci. Res., 100, 31–54, 2014.
Applegate, P. J., Kirchner, N., Stone, E. J., Keller, K., and Greve, R.: An assessment of key model parametric uncertainties in projections of Greenland Ice Sheet behavior, The Cryosphere, 6, 589–606,, 2012.
Bassett, S. E., Milne, G. A., Mitrovica, J. X., and Clark, P. U.: Ice sheet and solid Earth influences on far-field sea-level histories, Science, 309, 925–928, 2005.
Benn, D. I., Warren, C. R., and Mottram, R. H.: Calving processes and the dynamics of calving glaciers, Earth-Sci. Rev., 82, 143–179, 2007.
Briggs, R. D. and Tarasov, L.: How to evaluate model-derived deglaciation chronologies: a case study using Antarctica, Quaternary. Sci. Rev., 63, 109–127, 2013.
Short summary
Computer modeling of variations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet help to understand the ice sheet's sensitivity to climate change. We apply a numerical model to its retreat over the last 20 000 years, from its maximum glacial extent to modern. An ensemble of 625 simulations is performed with systematic combinations of uncertain model parameter values. Results are analyzed using (1) simple averaging, and (2) advanced statistical techniques, and reasonable agreement is found between the two.