Large ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice  Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques

Pollard, David; Chang, Won; Haran, Murali; Applegate, Patrick; DeConto, Robert

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1697-2016

Articles | Volume 9, issue 5

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1697-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1697-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 9, issue 5

Methods for assessment of models

|

04 May 2016

Methods for assessment of models |

| 04 May 2016

Large ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques

David Pollard, Won Chang, Murali Haran, Patrick Applegate, and Robert DeConto

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Final revised paper (published on 04 May 2016)
Preprint (discussion started on 12 Nov 2015)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

SC C3049: 'Executive Editor Comment on "Large ensemble modeling of last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques"', Astrid Kerkweg, 23 Nov 2015
RC C3313: 'Review of Pollard et al, 'Large ensemble modeling of last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet'. GMD Dec. 2015', N.R. Golledge, 11 Dec 2015
RC C3373: 'Review of Pollard et al', Lev Tarasov, 16 Dec 2015
AC C3928: 'Final author response', David Pollard, 02 Feb 2016

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

AR by David Pollard on behalf of the Authors (16 Feb 2016) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (21 Mar 2016) by Philippe Huybrechts

RR by Nicholas Golledge (24 Mar 2016)

ED: Publish as is (10 Apr 2016) by Philippe Huybrechts

AR by David Pollard on behalf of the Authors (12 Apr 2016) Manuscript

Short summary

Computer modeling of variations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet help to understand the ice sheet's sensitivity to climate change. We apply a numerical model to its retreat over the last 20 000 years, from its maximum glacial extent to modern. An ensemble of 625 simulations is performed with systematic combinations of uncertain model parameter values. Results are analyzed using (1) simple averaging, and (2) advanced statistical techniques, and reasonable agreement is found between the two.