Large ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice  Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques

Pollard, David; Chang, Won; Haran, Murali; Applegate, Patrick; DeConto, Robert

doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1697-2016

Articles | Volume 9, issue 5

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1697-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1697-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 9, issue 5

Methods for assessment of models

|

04 May 2016

Methods for assessment of models |

| 04 May 2016

Large ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques

David Pollard, Won Chang, Murali Haran, Patrick Applegate, and Robert DeConto

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Oct 2024	35	15	1	51
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Feb 2025	58	18	1	77
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Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 12 Nov 2015)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
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Dec 2015	11	42	0	53
Jan 2016	34	13	0	47
Feb 2016	27	11	2	40
Mar 2016	19	5	0	24
Apr 2016	10	8	1	19
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Aug 2016	19	24	2	45
Sep 2016	20	19	3	42
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Nov 2016	18	11	2	31
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Feb 2017	23	17	4	44
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Apr 2017	44	23	7	74
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Feb 2024	61	14	2	77
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Apr 2024	56	16	6	78
May 2024	27	24	4	55
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Nov 2024	39	5	5	49
Dec 2024	22	27	3	52
Jan 2025	23	12	3	38
Feb 2025	58	18	1	77
Mar 2025	34	16	4	54
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Jun 2025	54	19	0	73
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Aug 2025	58	25	2	85
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Oct 2025	51	26	5	82
Nov 2025	56	43	7	106
Dec 2025	3	3	0	6

Latest update: 06 Dec 2025

Short summary

Computer modeling of variations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet help to understand the ice sheet's sensitivity to climate change. We apply a numerical model to its retreat over the last 20 000 years, from its maximum glacial extent to modern. An ensemble of 625 simulations is performed with systematic combinations of uncertain model parameter values. Results are analyzed using (1) simple averaging, and (2) advanced statistical techniques, and reasonable agreement is found between the two.