Articles | Volume 9, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1697-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1697-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Large ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques
David Pollard
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, USA
Won Chang
Department of Statistics, University of Chicago, Illinois, USA
Murali Haran
Department of Statistics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, USA
Patrick Applegate
Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, USA
Earth Sciences Program, Pennsylvania State University, DuBois, USA
Robert DeConto
Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, USA
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66 citations as recorded by crossref.
- New Last Glacial Maximum ice thickness constraints for the Weddell Sea Embayment, Antarctica K. Nichols et al. 10.5194/tc-13-2935-2019
- Deglaciation of Pope Glacier implies widespread early Holocene ice sheet thinning in the Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica J. Johnson et al. 10.1016/j.epsl.2020.116501
- Current state and future perspectives on coupled ice-sheet – sea-level modelling B. de Boer et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.05.013
- Glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) – Part 1: Boundary conditions and climatic forcing T. Albrecht et al. 10.5194/tc-14-599-2020
- The last glaciation of Bear Peninsula, central Amundsen Sea Embayment of Antarctica: Constraints on timing and duration revealed by in situ cosmogenic 14C and 10Be dating J. Johnson et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.11.003
- Ice model calibration using semicontinuous spatial data W. Chang et al. 10.1214/21-AOAS1577
- Strategies for regional modeling of surface mass balance at the Monte Sarmiento Massif, Tierra del Fuego F. Temme et al. 10.5194/tc-17-2343-2023
- Numerical simulations of a kilometre-thick Arctic ice shelf consistent with ice grounding observations E. Gasson et al. 10.1038/s41467-018-03707-w
- The polar regions in a 2°C warmer world E. Post et al. 10.1126/sciadv.aaw9883
- Diagnosing added value of convection-permitting regional models using precipitation event identification and tracking W. Chang et al. 10.1007/s00382-018-4294-0
- Net retreat of Antarctic glacier grounding lines H. Konrad et al. 10.1038/s41561-018-0082-z
- Thickness of the divide and flank of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet through the last deglaciation P. Spector et al. 10.5194/tc-13-3061-2019
- Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet 1992–2016: reconciling results from GRACE gravimetry with ICESat, ERS1/2 and Envisat altimetry H. Zwally et al. 10.1017/jog.2021.8
- Quantifying Spatio-Temporal Boundary Condition Uncertainty for the North American Deglaciation J. Salter et al. 10.1137/21M1409135
- Holocene Ice‐Flow Speedup in the Vicinity of the South Pole D. Lilien et al. 10.1029/2018GL078253
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- The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model R. Reese et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020
- Glacial isostatic adjustment modelling: historical perspectives, recent advances, and future directions P. Whitehouse 10.5194/esurf-6-401-2018
- Uncertainty Quantification for Computer Models With Spatial Output Using Calibration-Optimal Bases J. Salter et al. 10.1080/01621459.2018.1514306
- Anatomy of a meltwater drainage system beneath the ancestral East Antarctic ice sheet L. Simkins et al. 10.1038/ngeo3012
- Holocene melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet driven by tropical Pacific warming A. Sproson et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-30076-2
- Abrupt mid-Holocene ice loss in the western Weddell Sea Embayment of Antarctica J. Johnson et al. 10.1016/j.epsl.2019.05.002
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- New 10Be exposure ages improve Holocene ice sheet thinning history near the grounding line of Pope Glacier, Antarctica J. Adams et al. 10.5194/tc-16-4887-2022
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- A fast and calibrated computer model emulator: an empirical Bayes approach V. Kejzlar et al. 10.1007/s11222-021-10024-8
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- A Coupled Ice Sheet–Sea Level Model Incorporating 3D Earth Structure: Variations in Antarctica during the Last Deglacial Retreat N. Gomez et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0352.1
- Holocene reconfiguration and readvance of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet S. Greenwood et al. 10.1038/s41467-018-05625-3
- West Antarctic sites for subglacial drilling to test for past ice-sheet collapse P. Spector et al. 10.5194/tc-12-2741-2018
- Variations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in a Coupled Ice Sheet‐Earth‐Sea Level Model: Sensitivity to Viscoelastic Earth Properties D. Pollard et al. 10.1002/2017JF004371
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
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Saved (preprint)
Latest update: 04 Feb 2025
Short summary
Computer modeling of variations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet help to
understand the ice sheet's sensitivity to climate change. We apply
a numerical model to its retreat over the last 20 000 years, from its
maximum glacial extent to modern. An ensemble of 625 simulations is performed
with systematic combinations of uncertain model parameter values. Results are
analyzed using (1) simple averaging, and (2) advanced statistical techniques,
and reasonable agreement is found between the two.
Computer modeling of variations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet help to
understand the ice sheet's...