Articles | Volume 16, issue 17
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4957-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4957-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
31 Aug 2023
Model evaluation paper |
| 31 Aug 2023
| 31 Aug 2023
Uncertainty estimation for a new exponential-filter-based long-term root-zone soil moisture dataset from Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) surface observations
Adam Pasik
Department of Geodesy and Geoinformation, TU Wien, Wiedner Hauptstraße 8, 1040 Vienna, Austria
Alexander Gruber
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geodesy and Geoinformation, TU Wien, Wiedner Hauptstraße 8, 1040 Vienna, Austria
Wolfgang Preimesberger
Department of Geodesy and Geoinformation, TU Wien, Wiedner Hauptstraße 8, 1040 Vienna, Austria
Domenico De Santis
Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, National Research Council, Via della Madonna Alta 126, 06128 Perugia, Italy
Wouter Dorigo
Department of Geodesy and Geoinformation, TU Wien, Wiedner Hauptstraße 8, 1040 Vienna, Austria
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Pierre Laluet, Jacopo Dari, Louise Busschaert, Zdenko Heyvaert, Gabrielle De Lannoy, Pia Langhans, Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Luca Brocca, Carla Saltalippi, Renato Morbidelli, Clément Albergel, and Wouter Dorigo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 4833–4853, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-4833-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-4833-2026, 2026
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We developed a long-term dataset collection of irrigation water use based on about two decades of satellite observations, three distinct approaches, and many input datasets. The collection provides monthly estimates for major agricultural regions and helps describe how irrigation varies across locations, seasons, and years. It offers a foundation for improving how irrigation is quantified, compared across methods, and integrated into large-scale hydrological and climate studies.
Martin Hirschi, Dominik Michel, Dominik L. Schumacher, Wolfgang Preimesberger, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 4855–4870, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-4855-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-4855-2026, 2026
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Drier summers and more frequent droughts were experienced in Switzerland in the last two decades. We present a comprehensive set of in situ soil moisture measurements from the Swiss Soil Moisture Experiment (SwissSMEX) network, covering the period 2010–2025. We document recent measures that have been taken to secure the network and its long-term time series. We use this curated data to analyse reported drying trends.
Elena Leonarduzzi, Alexander Gruber, and Reed M. Maxwell
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2956, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2956, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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Soil moisture is essential for natural hazards prediction, agriculture, and weather and climate forecasting, but current measurements cannot provide the needed detail across large areas. Our approach combines machine learning, physics-based hydrological modeling, and observations to produce high-resolution soil moisture maps, overcoming key limitations of existing approaches. This provides a promising path toward high-resolution soil moisture products, beneficial for many applications.
Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, Alfredo Crespo-Otero, Sara Modanesi, Pierre Laluet, Sergio Vicente-Serrano, Jaap Schellekens, Jacopo Dari, Hylke E. Beck, Wouter Dorigo, Christian Massari, Chiara Corbari, Joppe Massant, Kwint Delbare, Olivier Bonte, Aaron Boone, Diego Fernández-Prieto, and Diego G. Miralles
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1856, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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We developed a new method to estimate daily land evaporation at high resolution across the Iberian Peninsula, explicitly accounting for irrigation. By combining satellite and meteorological data, we show that irrigation can strongly increase evaporation in agricultural areas. The results better match ground observations and improve understanding of water use. This approach can support farming decisions and water management at the regional scale, and will be extended to global applications.
Ehsan Modiri, Oldrich Rakovec, Pallav Kumar Shrestha, Almudena García-García, Leandro Avila, Katie Blackford, Elizabeth Cooper, Bram Droppers, Paolo Filippucci, Milan Fischer, Matěj Orság, Pietro Stradiotti, Luca Brocca, Douglas B. Clark, Wouter Dorigo, Stefan Kollet, Jian Peng, Niko Wanders, and Luis Samaniego
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1012, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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Drought impacts water supply, agriculture, and ecosystems, yet hydrological models often disagree on when and where drought occurs. This study tested whether satellite observations can improve how models represent soil moisture drought in the Rhine River basin. Using several models and major drought events, we show that satellite data improve spatial realism and reveal important differences among models, helping to better understand uncertainty in drought monitoring and early warning.
Pierre Laluet, Chiara Corbari, Oscar Baez-Villanueva, Sophia Walther, Yongqiang Zhang, Joaquín Muñoz-Sabater, Clément Albergel, and Wouter Dorigo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 1779–1799, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1779-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1779-2026, 2026
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We examined how well global datasets estimate evapotranspiration, the water moving from land to the air, in irrigated areas. We compared six widely used products with irrigation maps, satellite estimates, and field measurements across different climate regions. Some datasets better capture irrigation effects, especially those using temperature and vegetation satellite data. This work helps guide dataset selection and supports better inclusion of irrigation in hydrological and climate models.
Roland Hohensinn, Junyang Gou, Ulrich Meyer, Vincent Humphrey, Wouter Dorigo, Eva Boergens, Benedikt Soja, Alexander Gruber, Laura Jensen, Annette Eicker, Michael Rast, and Andreas Güntner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-975, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-975, 2026
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This study provides a statistically traceable, uncertainty-aware assessment of global terrestrial and groundwater storage trends based on 21.5 years of GRACE/-FO observations using the Global Gravity-based Groundwater Product (G3P). By accounting for long-range memory and interannual variability, we isolate robust trends from climate variability and noise. The analysis refines continental budgets and identifies emerging groundwater gains alongside widespread persistent decline.
Domenico De Santis, Silvia Barbetta, Sumit Sen, Viviana Maggioni, Farhad Bahmanpouri, Ashutosh Sharma, Ankit Agarwal, Sagar Gupta, Francesco Avanzi, and Christian Massari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1075–1104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1075-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1075-2026, 2026
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A conceptual, semi-distributed hydrological model was tailored to simulate high flows in monsoon-dominated, glacier-influenced and flood-prone Himalayan basins. Multi-data calibration using satellite-based glacier mass loss and evapotranspiration estimates improved process realism in data-scarce environments. The proposed modelling approach captured key streamflow features despite significant input uncertainties, proving to be a useful tool for exploring the local hydrological response dynamics.
Andreas Güntner, Ehsan Sharifi, Julian Haas, Eva Boergens, Feifei Cao, Christoph Dahle, Neda Darbeheshti, Henryk Dobslaw, Inés Dussaillant, Wouter Dorigo, Frank Flechtner, Adrian Jäggi, Miriam Kosmale, Martin Lasser, Kari Luojus, Ulrich Meyer, Adam Pasik, Wolfgang Preimersberger, Claudia Ruz Vargas, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-797, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-797, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
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We provide a data set that illustrates how the amount of water that is stored in the subsurface as groundwater varies in time over the continents of the Earth. A main source of the data are observations with satellites that weigh the changing amount of water by its mass attraction effect. The data allow for assessing how groundwater as the most important freshwater resource for mankind and ecosystems is affected by climate variability, climate change and withdrawal by human activities.
Bethan L. Harris, Christopher M. Taylor, Wouter Dorigo, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Darren Ghent, and Iván Noguera
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 6917–6933, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6917-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6917-2025, 2025
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An improved understanding of land-atmosphere coupling processes during flash (rapid-onset) droughts is needed to aid the development of forecasts for these events. We use satellite observations to investigate the surface energy budget during flash droughts globally. The most intense events show a perturbed surface energy budget months before onset. In some regions, vegetation observations 1–2 months before onset provide information on the likelihood of heat extremes during an event.
Wolfgang Preimesberger, Pietro Stradiotti, and Wouter Dorigo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 4305–4329, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4305-2025, 2025
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We introduce the official ESA CCI Soil Moisture GAPFILLED climate data record. A univariate interpolation algorithm is applied to predict missing data points without relying on ancillary variables. The dataset includes gap-free uncertainty estimates for all predictions and was validated with independent in situ reference measurements. Our data record is recommended for applications which require global long-term gap-free satellite soil moisture data.
Wolfgang Knorr, Matthew Williams, Tea Thum, Thomas Kaminski, Michael Voßbeck, Marko Scholze, Tristan Quaife, T. Luke Smallman, Susan C. Steele-Dunne, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Tim Green, Sönke Zaehle, Mika Aurela, Alexandre Bouvet, Emanuel Bueechi, Wouter Dorigo, Tarek S. El-Madany, Mirco Migliavacca, Marika Honkanen, Yann H. Kerr, Anna Kontu, Juha Lemmetyinen, Hannakaisa Lindqvist, Arnaud Mialon, Tuuli Miinalainen, Gaétan Pique, Amanda Ojasalo, Shaun Quegan, Peter J. Rayner, Pablo Reyes-Muñoz, Nemesio Rodríguez-Fernández, Mike Schwank, Jochem Verrelst, Songyan Zhu, Dirk Schüttemeyer, and Matthias Drusch
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2137–2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2137-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2137-2025, 2025
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When it comes to climate change, the land surface is where the vast majority of impacts happen. The task of monitoring those impacts across the globe is formidable and must necessarily rely on satellites – at a significant cost: the measurements are only indirect and require comprehensive physical understanding. We have created a comprehensive modelling system that we offer to the research community to explore how satellite data can be better exploited to help us capture the changes that happen on our lands.
Martin Hirschi, Pietro Stradiotti, Bas Crezee, Wouter Dorigo, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 397–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-397-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-397-2025, 2025
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We investigate the potential of long-term satellite and reanalysis products for characterising soil drying by analysing their 2000–2022 soil moisture trends and their representation of agroecological drought events of this period. Soil moisture trends are globally diverse and partly contradictory between products. This also affects the products' drought-detection capacity. Based on the best-estimate products, consistent soil drying is observed over more than 40 % of the land area covered.
Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Leander Moesinger, Robin van der Schalie, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Wolfgang Preimesberger, Thomas Frederikse, Richard de Jeu, and Wouter Dorigo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 4573–4617, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4573-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4573-2024, 2024
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VODCA v2 is a dataset providing vegetation indicators for long-term ecosystem monitoring. VODCA v2 comprises two products: VODCA CXKu, spanning 34 years of observations (1987–2021), suitable for monitoring upper canopy dynamics, and VODCA L (2010–2021), for above-ground biomass monitoring. VODCA v2 has lower noise levels than the previous product version and provides valuable insights into plant water dynamics and biomass changes, even in areas where optical data are limited.
Samuel Scherrer, Gabriëlle De Lannoy, Zdenko Heyvaert, Michel Bechtold, Clement Albergel, Tarek S. El-Madany, and Wouter Dorigo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4087–4114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4087-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4087-2023, 2023
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We explored different options for data assimilation (DA) of the remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI). We found strong biases between LAI predicted by Noah-MP and observations. LAI DA that does not take these biases into account can induce unphysical patterns in the resulting LAI and flux estimates and leads to large changes in the climatology of root zone soil moisture. We tested two bias-correction approaches and explored alternative solutions to treating bias in LAI DA.
Remi Madelon, Nemesio J. Rodríguez-Fernández, Hassan Bazzi, Nicolas Baghdadi, Clement Albergel, Wouter Dorigo, and Mehrez Zribi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1221–1242, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1221-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1221-2023, 2023
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We present an approach to estimate soil moisture (SM) at 1 km resolution using Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-3 satellites. The estimates were compared to other high-resolution (HR) datasets over Europe, northern Africa, Australia, and North America, showing good agreement. However, the discrepancies between the different HR datasets and their lower performances compared with in situ measurements and coarse-resolution datasets show the remaining challenges for large-scale HR SM mapping.
Luisa Schmidt, Matthias Forkel, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Samuel Scherrer, Wouter A. Dorigo, Alexander Kuhn-Régnier, Robin van der Schalie, and Marta Yebra
Biogeosciences, 20, 1027–1046, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1027-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1027-2023, 2023
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Vegetation attenuates natural microwave emissions from the land surface. The strength of this attenuation is quantified as the vegetation optical depth (VOD) parameter and is influenced by the vegetation mass, structure, water content, and observation wavelength. Here we model the VOD signal as a multi-variate function of several descriptive vegetation variables. The results help in understanding the effects of ecosystem properties on VOD.
Taylor Smith, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Chris A. Boulton, Timothy M. Lenton, Wouter Dorigo, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 173–183, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-173-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-173-2023, 2023
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Multi-instrument records with varying signal-to-noise ratios are becoming increasingly common as legacy sensors are upgraded, and data sets are modernized. Induced changes in higher-order statistics such as the autocorrelation and variance are not always well captured by cross-calibration schemes. Here we investigate using synthetic examples how strong resulting biases can be and how they can be avoided in order to make reliable statements about changes in the resilience of a system.
Matthias Forkel, Luisa Schmidt, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Wouter Dorigo, and Marta Yebra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 39–68, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-39-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-39-2023, 2023
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The live fuel moisture content (LFMC) of vegetation canopies is a driver of wildfires. We investigate the relation between LFMC and passive microwave satellite observations of vegetation optical depth (VOD) and develop a method to estimate LFMC from VOD globally. Our global VOD-based estimates of LFMC can be used to investigate drought effects on vegetation and fire risks.
Leander Moesinger, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Robin van der Schalie, Tracy Scanlon, Richard de Jeu, and Wouter Dorigo
Biogeosciences, 19, 5107–5123, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, 2022
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The standardized vegetation optical depth index (SVODI) can be used to monitor the vegetation condition, such as whether the vegetation is unusually dry or wet. SVODI has global coverage, spans the past 3 decades and is derived from multiple spaceborne passive microwave sensors of that period. SVODI is based on a new probabilistic merging method that allows the merging of normally distributed data even if the data are not gap-free.
Robin van der Schalie, Mendy van der Vliet, Clément Albergel, Wouter Dorigo, Piotr Wolski, and Richard de Jeu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3611–3627, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3611-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3611-2022, 2022
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Climate data records of surface soil moisture, vegetation optical depth, and land surface temperature can be derived from passive microwave observations. The ability of these datasets to properly detect anomalies and extremes is very valuable in climate research and can especially help to improve our insight in complex regions where the current climate reanalysis datasets reach their limitations. Here, we present a case study over the Okavango Delta, where we focus on inter-annual variability.
Benjamin Wild, Irene Teubner, Leander Moesinger, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Matthias Forkel, Robin van der Schalie, Stephen Sitch, and Wouter Dorigo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1063–1085, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1063-2022, 2022
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Gross primary production (GPP) describes the conversion of CO2 to carbohydrates and can be seen as a filter for our atmosphere of the primary greenhouse gas CO2. We developed VODCA2GPP, a GPP dataset that is based on vegetation optical depth from microwave remote sensing and temperature. Thus, it is mostly independent from existing GPP datasets and also available in regions with frequent cloud coverage. Analysis showed that VODCA2GPP is able to complement existing state-of-the-art GPP datasets.
Stefan Schlaffer, Marco Chini, Wouter Dorigo, and Simon Plank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 841–860, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-841-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-841-2022, 2022
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Prairie wetlands are important for biodiversity and water availability. Knowledge about their variability and spatial distribution is of great use in conservation and water resources management. In this study, we propose a novel approach for the classification of small water bodies from satellite radar images and apply it to our study area over 6 years. The retrieved dynamics show the different responses of small and large wetlands to dry and wet periods.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Alexander Gruber, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Renato Morbidelli, and Gabrielle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6283–6307, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6283-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6283-2021, 2021
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Worldwide, the amount of water used for agricultural purposes is rising and the quantification of irrigation is becoming a crucial topic. Land surface models are not able to correctly simulate irrigation. Remote sensing observations offer an opportunity to fill this gap as they are directly affected by irrigation. We equipped a land surface model with an observation operator able to transform Sentinel-1 backscatter observations into realistic vegetation and soil states via data assimilation.
Wouter Dorigo, Irene Himmelbauer, Daniel Aberer, Lukas Schremmer, Ivana Petrakovic, Luca Zappa, Wolfgang Preimesberger, Angelika Xaver, Frank Annor, Jonas Ardö, Dennis Baldocchi, Marco Bitelli, Günter Blöschl, Heye Bogena, Luca Brocca, Jean-Christophe Calvet, J. Julio Camarero, Giorgio Capello, Minha Choi, Michael C. Cosh, Nick van de Giesen, Istvan Hajdu, Jaakko Ikonen, Karsten H. Jensen, Kasturi Devi Kanniah, Ileen de Kat, Gottfried Kirchengast, Pankaj Kumar Rai, Jenni Kyrouac, Kristine Larson, Suxia Liu, Alexander Loew, Mahta Moghaddam, José Martínez Fernández, Cristian Mattar Bader, Renato Morbidelli, Jan P. Musial, Elise Osenga, Michael A. Palecki, Thierry Pellarin, George P. Petropoulos, Isabella Pfeil, Jarrett Powers, Alan Robock, Christoph Rüdiger, Udo Rummel, Michael Strobel, Zhongbo Su, Ryan Sullivan, Torbern Tagesson, Andrej Varlagin, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Jeffrey Walker, Jun Wen, Fred Wenger, Jean Pierre Wigneron, Mel Woods, Kun Yang, Yijian Zeng, Xiang Zhang, Marek Zreda, Stephan Dietrich, Alexander Gruber, Peter van Oevelen, Wolfgang Wagner, Klaus Scipal, Matthias Drusch, and Roberto Sabia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5749–5804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5749-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5749-2021, 2021
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The International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) is a community-based open-access data portal for soil water measurements taken at the ground and is accessible at https://ismn.earth. Over 1000 scientific publications and thousands of users have made use of the ISMN. The scope of this paper is to inform readers about the data and functionality of the ISMN and to provide a review of the scientific progress facilitated through the ISMN with the scope to shape future research and operations.
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Short summary
We apply the exponential filter (EF) method to satellite soil moisture retrievals to estimate the water content in the unobserved root zone globally from 2002–2020. Quality assessment against an independent dataset shows satisfactory results. Error characterization is carried out using the standard uncertainty propagation law and empirically estimated values of EF model structural uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. This is followed by analysis of temporal uncertainty variations.
We apply the exponential filter (EF) method to satellite soil moisture retrievals to estimate...
