Articles | Volume 14, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1753-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1753-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
30 Mar 2021
Model evaluation paper |
| 30 Mar 2021
| 30 Mar 2021
Assessing the simulated soil hydrothermal regime of the active layer from the Noah-MP land surface model (v1.1) in the permafrost regions of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau
Xiangfei Li
Cryosphere Research Station on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, State Key
Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment
and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
National Cryosphere Desert Data Center, Northwest Institute of
Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000,
China
College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Cryosphere Research Station on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, State Key
Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment
and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Xiaodong Wu
Cryosphere Research Station on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, State Key
Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment
and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Cryosphere Research Station on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, State Key
Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment
and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Xiaofan Zhu
Cryosphere Research Station on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, State Key
Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment
and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Guojie Hu
Cryosphere Research Station on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, State Key
Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment
and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Ren Li
Cryosphere Research Station on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, State Key
Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment
and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Yongping Qiao
Cryosphere Research Station on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, State Key
Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment
and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Cheng Yang
Cryosphere Research Station on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, State Key
Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment
and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Junming Hao
Cryosphere Research Station on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, State Key
Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment
and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Jie Ni
Cryosphere Research Station on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, State Key
Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment
and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Wensi Ma
Cryosphere Research Station on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, State Key
Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment
and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
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The Third Pole regions are important components in the global permafrost, and the detailed spatial soil organic carbon data are the scientific basis for environmental protection as well as the development of Earth system models. Based on multiple environmental variables and soil profile data, this study use machine-learning approaches to evaluate the SOC storage and spatial distribution at a depth interval of 0–3 m in the frozen ground area of the Third Pole region.
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The thermal regime is a key indicator of permafrost evolution. We quantitatively analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of the permafrost status in western Tibet since the 1980s, based on numerical simulations using the enhanced, model-forcing-driven Moving-Grid Permafrost Model. Our simulated results indicated that slow and lagged response of permafrost to climate warming, which closely linked to historical thermal conditions.
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This study provides a baseline data of permafrost temperature at 15 meters depth in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) over the period 2010–2019 at a spatial resolution of nearly 1 km, using 231 borehole records and a machine learning method. The average MAGT15m of the QTP permafrost was -1.85 °C, with 90% of values ranging from -5.1 °C to -0.1 °C and 51.2% exceeding -1.5 °C. The data can serve as a crucial boundary condition for deeper permafrost assessments and a reference for model simulations.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Almudena García-García, Gerhard Krinner, Moritz Langer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Jan Nitzbon, Jian Peng, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Wim Thiery, Inne Vanderkelen, and Tonghua Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 609–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, 2023
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Climate change is caused by the accumulated heat in the Earth system, with the land storing the second largest amount of this extra heat. Here, new estimates of continental heat storage are obtained, including changes in inland-water heat storage and permafrost heat storage in addition to changes in ground heat storage. We also argue that heat gains in all three components should be monitored independently of their magnitude due to heat-dependent processes affecting society and ecosystems.
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Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
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Lingxiao Wang, Lin Zhao, Huayun Zhou, Shibo Liu, Erji Du, Defu Zou, Guangyue Liu, Yao Xiao, Guojie Hu, Chong Wang, Zhe Sun, Zhibin Li, Yongping Qiao, Tonghua Wu, Chengye Li, and Xubing Li
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Selin Co has exhibited the greatest increase in water storage among all the lakes on the Tibetan Plateau in the past decades. This study presents the first attempt to quantify the water contribution of ground ice melting to the expansion of Selin Co by evaluating the ground surface deformation since terrain surface settlement provides a
windowto detect the subsurface ground ice melting. Results reveal that ground ice meltwater contributed ~ 12 % of the lake volume increase during 2017–2020.
Tonghua Wu, Changwei Xie, Xiaofan Zhu, Jie Chen, Wu Wang, Ren Li, Amin Wen, Dong Wang, Peiqing Lou, Chengpeng Shang, Yune La, Xianhua Wei, Xin Ma, Yongping Qiao, Xiaodong Wu, Qiangqiang Pang, and Guojie Hu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1257–1269, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1257-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1257-2022, 2022
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We presented an 11-year time series of meteorological, active layer, and permafrost data at the Mahan Mountain relict permafrost site in northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. From 2010 to 2020, the increasing rate of active layer thickness was 1.8 cm-year and the permafrost temperature showed slight changes. The release of those data would be helpful to understand the impacts of climate change on permafrost in relict permafrost regions and to validate the permafrost models and land surface models.
Xiaowen Wang, Lin Liu, Yan Hu, Tonghua Wu, Lin Zhao, Qiao Liu, Rui Zhang, Bo Zhang, and Guoxiang Liu
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We characterized the multi-decadal geomorphic changes of a low-angle valley glacier in the East Kunlun Mountains and assessed the detachment hazard influence. The observations reveal a slow surge-like dynamic pattern of the glacier tongue. The maximum runout distances of two endmember avalanche scenarios were presented. This study provides a reference to evaluate the runout hazards of low-angle mountain glaciers prone to detachment.
Lin Zhao, Defu Zou, Guojie Hu, Tonghua Wu, Erji Du, Guangyue Liu, Yao Xiao, Ren Li, Qiangqiang Pang, Yongping Qiao, Xiaodong Wu, Zhe Sun, Zanpin Xing, Yu Sheng, Yonghua Zhao, Jianzong Shi, Changwei Xie, Lingxiao Wang, Chong Wang, and Guodong Cheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4207–4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4207-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4207-2021, 2021
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Lack of a synthesis dataset of the permafrost state has greatly limited our understanding of permafrost-related research as well as the calibration and validation of RS retrievals and model simulation. We compiled this dataset, including ground temperature, active layer hydrothermal regimes, and meteorological indexes based on our observational network, and we summarized the basic changes in permafrost and its climatic conditions. It is the first comprehensive dataset on permafrost for the QXP.
Dong Wang, Tonghua Wu, Lin Zhao, Cuicui Mu, Ren Li, Xianhua Wei, Guojie Hu, Defu Zou, Xiaofan Zhu, Jie Chen, Junmin Hao, Jie Ni, Xiangfei Li, Wensi Ma, Amin Wen, Chengpeng Shang, Yune La, Xin Ma, and Xiaodong Wu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3453–3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3453-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3453-2021, 2021
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The Third Pole regions are important components in the global permafrost, and the detailed spatial soil organic carbon data are the scientific basis for environmental protection as well as the development of Earth system models. Based on multiple environmental variables and soil profile data, this study use machine-learning approaches to evaluate the SOC storage and spatial distribution at a depth interval of 0–3 m in the frozen ground area of the Third Pole region.
Xu Chen, Cuicui Mu, Lin Jia, Zhilong Li, Chengyan Fan, Mei Mu, Xiaoqing Peng, and Xiaodong Wu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-378, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-378, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Thermokarst lakes have attracted significant attention because of their ability to regulate carbon cycle. Now, the distribution of thermokarst lakes on QTP remains largely unknown, hindering our understanding of the response of permafrost's carbon feedback to climate change. Here, based on the GEE platform, we examined the modern distribution (2018) of thermokarst lakes on the QTP using Sentinel-2A data. Results show that the total thermokarst lake area on the QTP is 1730.34 m2 km2.
Defu Zou, Lin Zhao, Yu Sheng, Ji Chen, Guojie Hu, Tonghua Wu, Jichun Wu, Changwei Xie, Xiaodong Wu, Qiangqiang Pang, Wu Wang, Erji Du, Wangping Li, Guangyue Liu, Jing Li, Yanhui Qin, Yongping Qiao, Zhiwei Wang, Jianzong Shi, and Guodong Cheng
The Cryosphere, 11, 2527–2542, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2527-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2527-2017, 2017
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The area and distribution of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau are unclear and controversial. This paper generated a benchmark map based on the modified remote sensing products and validated it using ground-based data sets. Compared with two existing maps, the new map performed better and showed that permafrost covered areas of 1.06 × 106 km2. The results provide more detailed information on the permafrost distribution and basic data for use in future research on the Tibetan Plateau permafrost.
Xiaowen Wang, Lin Liu, Lin Zhao, Tonghua Wu, Zhongqin Li, and Guoxiang Liu
The Cryosphere, 11, 997–1014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-997-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-997-2017, 2017
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Rock glaciers are abundant in high mountains in western China but have been ignored for 20 years. We used a new remote-sensing-based method to map active rock glaciers in the Chinese part of the Tien Shan and compiled an inventory of 261 active rock glaciers and included quantitative information about their locations, geomorphic parameters, and downslope velocities. Our dataset suggests that the lower limit of permafrost there is 2500–2800 m.
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.172736254.41350153/v2, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.172736254.41350153/v2, 2024
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Diego Monteiro, Cécile Caillaud, Matthieu Lafaysse, Adrien Napoly, Mathieu Fructus, Antoinette Alias, and Samuel Morin
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Modeling snow cover in climate and weather forecasting models is a challenge even for high-resolution models. Recent simulations with CNRM-AROME have shown difficulties when representing snow in the European Alps. Using remote sensing data and in situ observations, we evaluate modifications of the land surface configuration in order to improve it. We propose a new surface configuration, enabling a more realistic simulation of snow cover, relevant for climate and weather forecasting applications.
Alessandro Maissen, Frank Techel, and Michele Volpi
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7569–7593, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7569-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7569-2024, 2024
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By harnessing AI models, this work enables processing large amounts of data, including weather conditions, snowpack characteristics, and historical avalanche data, to predict human-like avalanche forecasts in Switzerland. Our proposed model can significantly assist avalanche forecasters in their decision-making process, thereby facilitating more efficient and accurate predictions crucial for ensuring safety in Switzerland's avalanche-prone regions.
Richard Essery, Giulia Mazzotti, Sarah Barr, Tobias Jonas, Tristan Quaife, and Nick Rutter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2546, 2024
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How forests influence accumulation and melt of snow on the ground is of long-standing interest, but uncertainty remains in how best to model forest snow processes. We developed the Flexible Snow Model version 2 to quantify these uncertainties. In a first model demonstration, how unloading of intercepted snow from the forest canopy is represented is responsible for the largest uncertainty. Global mapping of forest distribution is also likely to be a large source of uncertainty in existing models.
Davor Dundovic, Joseph G. Wallwork, Stephan C. Kramer, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Regine Hock, and Matthew D. Piggott
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2649, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2649, 2024
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Accurate numerical studies of glaciers often require high-resolution simulations, which often prove too demanding even for modern computers. In this paper we develop a method that identifies whether different parts of a glacier require high or low resolution based on its physical features, such as its thickness and velocity. We show that by doing so we can achieve a more optimal simulation accuracy for the available computing resources compared to uniform resolution simulations.
Enrico Zorzetto, Sergey Malyshev, Paul Ginoux, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7219–7244, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7219-2024, 2024
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We describe a new snow scheme developed for use in global climate models, which simulates the interactions of snowpack with vegetation, atmosphere, and soil. We test the new snow model over a set of sites where in situ observations are available. We find that when compared to a simpler snow model, this model improves predictions of seasonal snow and of soil temperature under the snowpack, important variables for simulating both the hydrological cycle and the global climate system.
Niccolò Maffezzoli, Eric Rignot, Carlo Barbante, Troels Petersen, and Sebastiano Vascon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2455, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2455, 2024
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In this work we introduces IceBoost, a machine learning framework to model the ice thickness distribution of all the World's glaciers, with greater accuracy than state-of-the-art methods. The model is trained on 3.7 million measurements globally available and provides skillful estimates across all regions. This advancement will help in better assessing future sea level changes, freshwater resources, with significance for both the scientific community and society at large.
Therese Rieckh, Andreas Born, Alexander Robinson, Robert Law, and Gerrit Gülle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6987–7000, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6987-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6987-2024, 2024
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We present the open-source model ELSA, which simulates the internal age structure of large ice sheets. It creates layers of snow accumulation at fixed times during the simulation, which are used to model the internal stratification of the ice sheet. Together with reconstructed isochrones from radiostratigraphy data, ELSA can be used to assess ice sheet models and to improve their parameterization. ELSA can be used coupled to an ice sheet model or forced with its output.
Fu Zhao, Xi Liang, Zhongxiang Tian, Ming Li, Na Liu, and Chengyan Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6867–6886, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6867-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6867-2024, 2024
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In this work, we introduce a newly developed Antarctic sea ice forecasting system, namely the Southern Ocean Ice Prediction System (SOIPS). The system is based on a regional sea ice‒ocean‒ice shelf coupled model and can assimilate sea ice concentration observations. By assessing the system's performance in sea ice forecasts, we find that the system can provide reliable Antarctic sea ice forecasts for the next 7 d and has the potential to guide ship navigation in the Antarctic sea ice zone.
Chenhui Ning, Shiming Xu, Yan Zhang, Xuantong Wang, Zhihao Fan, and Jiping Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6847–6866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6847-2024, 2024
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Sea ice models are mainly based on non-moving structured grids, which is different from buoy measurements that follow the ice drift. To facilitate Lagrangian analysis, we introduce online tracking of sea ice in Community Ice CodE (CICE). We validate the sea ice tracking with buoys and evaluate the sea ice deformation in high-resolution simulations, which show multi-fractal characteristics. The source code is openly available and can be used in various scientific and operational applications.
Ulrich Strasser, Michael Warscher, Erwin Rottler, and Florian Hanzer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6775–6797, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6775-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6775-2024, 2024
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openAMUNDSEN is a fully distributed open-source snow-hydrological model for mountain catchments. It includes process representations of an empirical, semi-empirical, and physical nature. It uses temperature, precipitation, humidity, radiation, and wind speed as forcing data and is computationally efficient, of a modular nature, and easily extendible. The Python code is available on GitHub (https://github.com/openamundsen/openamundsen), including documentation (https://doc.openamundsen.org).
Matthias Rauter and Julia Kowalski
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6545–6569, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6545-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6545-2024, 2024
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Snow avalanches can form large powder clouds that substantially exceed the velocity and reach of the dense core. Only a few complex models exist to simulate this phenomenon, and the respective hazard is hard to predict. This work provides a novel flow model that focuses on simple relations while still encapsulating the significant behaviour. The model is applied to reconstruct two catastrophic powder snow avalanche events in Austria.
Till Andreas Soya Rasmussen, Jacob Poulsen, Mads Hvid Ribergaard, Ruchira Sasanka, Anthony P. Craig, Elizabeth C. Hunke, and Stefan Rethmeier
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6529–6544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6529-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6529-2024, 2024
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Earth system models (ESMs) today strive for better quality based on improved resolutions and improved physics. A limiting factor is the supercomputers at hand and how best to utilize them. This study focuses on the refactorization of one part of a sea ice model (CICE), namely the dynamics. It shows that the performance can be significantly improved, which means that one can either run the same simulations much cheaper or advance the system according to what is needed.
Alex Edward West and Edward William Blockley
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-121, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-121, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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This study uses ice mass balance buoys – temperature and height-measuring devices frozen into sea ice – to find how well climate models simulate the melt & growth of, and conduction of heat through, Arctic sea ice. This may help understand why models produce varying amounts of sea ice in the present day. We find models tend to show more melt, growth or conduction for a given ice thickness than the buoys, though the difference is smaller for models with more physically realistic thermodynamics.
Iain Wheel, Douglas I. Benn, Anna J. Crawford, Joe Todd, and Thomas Zwinger
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5759–5777, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5759-2024, 2024
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Calving, the detachment of large icebergs from glaciers, is one of the largest uncertainties in future sea level rise projections. This process is poorly understood, and there is an absence of detailed models capable of simulating calving. A new 3D calving model has been developed to better understand calving at glaciers where detailed modelling was previously limited. Importantly, the new model is very flexible. By allowing for unrestricted calving geometries, it can be applied at any location.
Constantijn J. Berends, Victor Azizi, Jorge Bernales, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-5, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-5, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Ice-sheet models are computer programs that can simulate how the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will evolve in the future. The accuracy of these models depends on their resolution: how small the details are that the model can resolve. We have created a model with a variable resolution, which can resolve a lot of detail in areas where lots of changes happen in the ice, and less detail in areas where the ice does not move so much. This makes the model both accurate and fast.
Ole Richter, Ralph Timmermann, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Jan De Rydt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-648, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-648, 2024
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The new coupled ice sheet-ocean model addresses challenges related to horizontal resolution through advanced mesh flexibility, enabled by the use of unstructured grids. We describe the new model, verify its functioning in an idealised setting and demonstrate its advantages in a global-ocean/Antarctic ice sheet domain. The results of this study comprise an important step towards improving predictions of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise over centennial time scales.
Kévin Fourteau, Julien Brondex, Fanny Brun, and Marie Dumont
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1903–1929, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1903-2024, 2024
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In this paper, we provide a novel numerical implementation for solving the energy exchanges at the surface of snow and ice. By combining the strong points of previous models, our solution leads to more accurate and robust simulations of the energy exchanges, surface temperature, and melt while preserving a reasonable computation time.
Matthieu Baron, Ange Haddjeri, Matthieu Lafaysse, Louis Le Toumelin, Vincent Vionnet, and Mathieu Fructus
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1297–1326, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1297-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1297-2024, 2024
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Increasing the spatial resolution of numerical systems simulating snowpack evolution in mountain areas requires representing small-scale processes such as wind-induced snow transport. We present SnowPappus, a simple scheme coupled with the Crocus snow model to compute blowing-snow fluxes and redistribute snow among grid points at 250 m resolution. In terms of numerical cost, it is suitable for large-scale applications. We present point-scale evaluations of fluxes and snow transport occurrence.
Lizz Ultee, Alexander A. Robel, and Stefano Castruccio
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1041–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1041-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1041-2024, 2024
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The surface mass balance (SMB) of an ice sheet describes the net gain or loss of mass from ice sheets (such as those in Greenland and Antarctica) through interaction with the atmosphere. We developed a statistical method to generate a wide range of SMB fields that reflect the best understanding of SMB processes. Efficiently sampling the variability of SMB will help us understand sources of uncertainty in ice sheet model projections.
Anjali Sandip, Ludovic Räss, and Mathieu Morlighem
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 899–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-899-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-899-2024, 2024
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We solve momentum balance for unstructured meshes to predict ice flow for real glaciers using a pseudo-transient method on graphics processing units (GPUs) and compare it to a standard central processing unit (CPU) implementation. We justify the GPU implementation by applying the price-to-performance metric for up to million-grid-point spatial resolutions. This study represents a first step toward leveraging GPU processing power, enabling more accurate polar ice discharge predictions.
Julien Brondex, Kévin Fourteau, Marie Dumont, Pascal Hagenmuller, Neige Calonne, François Tuzet, and Henning Löwe
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7075–7106, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7075-2023, 2023
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Vapor diffusion is one of the main processes governing snowpack evolution, and it must be accounted for in models. Recent attempts to represent vapor diffusion in numerical models have faced several difficulties regarding computational cost and mass and energy conservation. Here, we develop our own finite-element software to explore numerical approaches and enable us to overcome these difficulties. We illustrate the capability of these approaches on established numerical benchmarks.
Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2690, 2023
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We introduce Nix, an ice-sheet model designed for understanding how large masses of ice behave. Nix as a computer program that simulates the movement and temperature changes in ice sheets. Nix helps us study how ice sheets respond to changes in the atmosphere and ocean. We found that how fast ice melts under the shelves and how heat is exchanged, play a role in determining the future of ice sheets. Nix is a useful tool for learning more about how climate change affects polar ice sheets.
Matthias Tonnel, Anna Wirbel, Felix Oesterle, and Jan-Thomas Fischer
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7013–7035, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7013-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7013-2023, 2023
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Avaframe - the open avalanche framework - provides open-source tools to simulate and investigate snow avalanches. It is utilized for multiple purposes, the two main applications being hazard mapping and scientific research of snow processes. We present the theory, conversion to a computer model, and testing for one of the core modules used for simulations of a particular type of avalanche, the so-called dense-flow avalanches. Tests check and confirm the applicability of the utilized method.
Jordi Bolibar, Facundo Sapienza, Fabien Maussion, Redouane Lguensat, Bert Wouters, and Fernando Pérez
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6671–6687, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6671-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6671-2023, 2023
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We developed a new modelling framework combining numerical methods with machine learning. Using this approach, we focused on understanding how ice moves within glaciers, and we successfully learnt a prescribed law describing ice movement for 17 glaciers worldwide as a proof of concept. Our framework has the potential to discover important laws governing glacier processes, aiding our understanding of glacier physics and their contribution to water resources and sea-level rise.
Prateek Gantayat, Alison F. Banwell, Amber A. Leeson, James M. Lea, Dorthe Petersen, Noel Gourmelen, and Xavier Fettweis
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5803–5823, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5803-2023, 2023
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We developed a new supraglacial hydrology model for the Greenland Ice Sheet. This model simulates surface meltwater routing, meltwater drainage, supraglacial lake (SGL) overflow, and formation of lake ice. The model was able to reproduce 80 % of observed lake locations and provides a good match between the observed and modelled temporal evolution of SGLs.
Kevin Hank, Lev Tarasov, and Elisa Mantelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5627–5652, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5627-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5627-2023, 2023
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Physically meaningful modeling of geophysical system instabilities is numerically challenging, given the potential effects of purely numerical artifacts. Here we explore the sensitivity of ice stream surge activation to numerical and physical model aspects. We find that surge characteristics exhibit a resolution dependency but converge at higher horizontal grid resolutions and are significantly affected by the incorporation of bed thermal and sub-glacial hydrology models.
Yannic Fischler, Thomas Kleiner, Christian Bischof, Jeremie Schmiedel, Roiy Sayag, Raban Emunds, Lennart Frederik Oestreich, and Angelika Humbert
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5305–5322, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5305-2023, 2023
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Water underneath ice sheets affects the motion of glaciers. This study presents a newly developed code, CUAS-MPI, that simulates subglacial hydrology. It is designed for supercomputers and is hence a parallelized code. We measure the performance of this code for simulations of the entire Greenland Ice Sheet and find that the code works efficiently. Moreover, we validated the code to ensure the correctness of the solution. CUAS-MPI opens new possibilities for simulations of ice sheet hydrology.
Julia Kaltenborn, Amy R. Macfarlane, Viviane Clay, and Martin Schneebeli
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4521–4550, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4521-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4521-2023, 2023
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Snow layer segmentation and snow grain classification are essential diagnostic tasks for cryospheric applications. A SnowMicroPen (SMP) can be used to that end; however, the manual classification of its profiles becomes infeasible for large datasets. Here, we evaluate how well machine learning models automate this task. Of the 14 models trained on the MOSAiC SMP dataset, the long short-term memory model performed the best. The findings presented here facilitate and accelerate SMP data analysis.
Johannes Aschauer, Adrien Michel, Tobias Jonas, and Christoph Marty
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4063–4081, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4063-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4063-2023, 2023
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Snow water equivalent is the mass of water stored in a snowpack. Based on exponential settling functions, the empirical snow density model SWE2HS is presented to convert time series of daily snow water equivalent into snow depth. The model has been calibrated with data from Switzerland and validated with independent data from the European Alps. A reference implementation of SWE2HS is available as a Python package.
Eric Keenan, Nander Wever, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3203–3219, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3203-2023, 2023
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Ice sheets gain mass via snowfall. However, snowfall is redistributed by the wind, resulting in accumulation differences of up to a factor of 5 over distances as short as 5 km. These differences complicate estimates of ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. For this reason, we have developed a new model for estimating wind-driven snow redistribution on ice sheets. We show that, over Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica, the model improves estimates of snow accumulation variability.
Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Johanna Scheer, Kristoffer Aalstad, Juditha Aga, Nitin Chaudhary, Bernd Etzelmüller, Simon Filhol, Andreas Kääb, Cas Renette, Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Robin B. Zweigel, Léo Martin, Sarah Morard, Matan Ben-Asher, Michael Angelopoulos, Julia Boike, Brian Groenke, Frederieke Miesner, Jan Nitzbon, Paul Overduin, Simone M. Stuenzi, and Moritz Langer
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2607–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023, 2023
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The CryoGrid community model is a new tool for simulating ground temperatures and the water and ice balance in cold regions. It is a modular design, which makes it possible to test different schemes to simulate, for example, permafrost ground in an efficient way. The model contains tools to simulate frozen and unfrozen ground, snow, glaciers, and other massive ice bodies, as well as water bodies.
Alex S. Gardner, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, and Eric Larour
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2277–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2277-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2277-2023, 2023
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This is the first description of the open-source Glacier Energy and Mass Balance (GEMB) model. GEMB models the ice sheet and glacier surface–atmospheric energy and mass exchange, as well as the firn state. The model is evaluated against the current state of the art and in situ observations and is shown to perform well.
Yafei Nie, Chengkun Li, Martin Vancoppenolle, Bin Cheng, Fabio Boeira Dias, Xianqing Lv, and Petteri Uotila
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1395–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1395-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1395-2023, 2023
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State-of-the-art Earth system models simulate the observed sea ice extent relatively well, but this is often due to errors in the dynamic and other processes in the simulated sea ice changes cancelling each other out. We assessed the sensitivity of these processes simulated by the coupled ocean–sea ice model NEMO4.0-SI3 to 18 parameters. The performance of the model in simulating sea ice change processes was ultimately improved by adjusting the three identified key parameters.
Varun Sharma, Franziska Gerber, and Michael Lehning
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 719–749, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-719-2023, 2023
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Most current generation climate and weather models have a relatively simplistic description of snow and snow–atmosphere interaction. One reason for this is the belief that including an advanced snow model would make the simulations too computationally demanding. In this study, we bring together two state-of-the-art models for atmosphere (WRF) and snow cover (SNOWPACK) and highlight both the feasibility and necessity of such coupled models to explore underexplored phenomena in the cryosphere.
Anne M. Felden, Daniel F. Martin, and Esmond G. Ng
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 407–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-407-2023, 2023
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We present and validate a novel subglacial hydrology model, SUHMO, based on an adaptive mesh refinement framework. We propose the addition of a pseudo-diffusion to recover the wall melting in channels. Computational performance analysis demonstrates the efficiency of adaptive mesh refinement on large-scale hydrologic problems. The adaptive mesh refinement approach will eventually enable better ice bed boundary conditions for ice sheet simulations at a reasonable computational cost.
Dalei Hao, Gautam Bisht, Karl Rittger, Edward Bair, Cenlin He, Huilin Huang, Cheng Dang, Timbo Stillinger, Yu Gu, Hailong Wang, Yun Qian, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 75–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-75-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-75-2023, 2023
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Snow with the highest albedo of land surface plays a vital role in Earth’s surface energy budget and water cycle. This study accounts for the impacts of snow grain shape and mixing state of light-absorbing particles with snow on snow albedo in the E3SM land model. The findings advance our understanding of the role of snow grain shape and mixing state of LAP–snow in land surface processes and offer guidance for improving snow simulations and radiative forcing estimates in Earth system models.
Esteban Alonso-González, Kristoffer Aalstad, Mohamed Wassim Baba, Jesús Revuelto, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, Joel Fiddes, Richard Essery, and Simon Gascoin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9127–9155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9127-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9127-2022, 2022
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Snow cover plays an important role in many processes, but its monitoring is a challenging task. The alternative is usually to simulate the snowpack, and to improve these simulations one of the most promising options is to fuse simulations with available observations (data assimilation). In this paper we present MuSA, a data assimilation tool which facilitates the implementation of snow monitoring initiatives, allowing the assimilation of a wide variety of remotely sensed snow cover information.
Vincent Verjans, Alexander A. Robel, Helene Seroussi, Lizz Ultee, and Andrew F. Thompson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8269–8293, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, 2022
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We describe the development of the first large-scale ice sheet model that accounts for stochasticity in a range of processes. Stochasticity allows the impacts of inherently uncertain processes on ice sheets to be represented. This includes climatic uncertainty, as the climate is inherently chaotic. Furthermore, stochastic capabilities also encompass poorly constrained glaciological processes that display strong variability at fine spatiotemporal scales. We present the model and test experiments.
Max Brils, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel van den Broeke
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7121–7138, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, 2022
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Firn covers the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and can temporarily prevent mass loss. Here, we present the latest version of our firn model, IMAU-FDM, with an application to the GrIS. We improved the density of fallen snow, the firn densification rate and the firn's thermal conductivity. This leads to a higher air content and 10 m temperatures. Furthermore we investigate three case studies and find that the updated model shows greater variability and an increased sensitivity in surface elevation.
Océane Hames, Mahdi Jafari, David Nicholas Wagner, Ian Raphael, David Clemens-Sewall, Chris Polashenski, Matthew D. Shupe, Martin Schneebeli, and Michael Lehning
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6429–6449, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6429-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6429-2022, 2022
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This paper presents an Eulerian–Lagrangian snow transport model implemented in the fluid dynamics software OpenFOAM, which we call snowBedFoam 1.0. We apply this model to reproduce snow deposition on a piece of ridged Arctic sea ice, which was produced during the MOSAiC expedition through scan measurements. The model appears to successfully reproduce the enhanced snow accumulation and deposition patterns, although some quantitative uncertainties were shown.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, Thomas J. Reerink, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5667–5688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, 2022
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The rate at which marine ice sheets such as the West Antarctic ice sheet will retreat in a warming climate and ocean is still uncertain. Numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physical equations that describe the way glaciers and ice sheets deform and flow, have been substantially improved in recent years. Here we present the results of several years of work on IMAU-ICE, an ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity, which can be used to study ice sheets of both the past and the future.
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Short summary
In this study, an ensemble simulation of 55296 scheme combinations for at a typical permafrost site on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) was conducted. The general performance of the Noah-MP model for snow cover events (SCEs), soil temperature (ST) and soil liquid water content (SLW) was assessed, and the sensitivities of parameterization schemes at different depths were investigated. We show that Noah-MP tends to overestimate SCEs and underestimate ST and topsoil SLW on the QTP.
In this study, an ensemble simulation of 55296 scheme combinations for at a typical permafrost...
