Articles | Volume 13, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5485-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5485-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| Highlight paper
| 
11 Nov 2020
Model evaluation paper | Highlight paper |
| 11 Nov 2020
| 11 Nov 2020
European daily precipitation according to EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) and high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP)
Marie-Estelle Demory
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich,
Switzerland
Ségolène Berthou
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
Jesús Fernández
Meteorology Group, Dept. Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Cantabria, 39005 Santander, Spain
Silje L. Sørland
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich,
Switzerland
Roman Brogli
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich,
Switzerland
Malcolm J. Roberts
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
Urs Beyerle
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich,
Switzerland
Jon Seddon
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
Rein Haarsma
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), 3731 GA De Bilt, the Netherlands
Christoph Schär
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich,
Switzerland
Erasmo Buonomo
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
Ole B. Christensen
Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
James M. Ciarlo ̀
The Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP),
34135 Trieste, Italy
National Institute of Oceanography and Applied
Geophysics (OGS), 34010 Sgonico, Italy
Rowan Fealy
Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units (ICARUS)/Department of Geography, Maynooth University, Maynooth, Co.
Kildare, Ireland
Grigory Nikulin
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), 60176
Norrköping, Sweden
Daniele Peano
Fondazione Centro euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), CSP, 40127 Bologna, Italy
Dian Putrasahan
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI), 20146 Hamburg,
Germany
Christopher D. Roberts
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), Reading, RG2 9AX, United Kingdom
Retish Senan
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), Reading, RG2 9AX, United Kingdom
Christian Steger
Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), 63067 Offenbach, Germany
Claas Teichmann
Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum
Geesthacht, 20095 Hamburg, Germany
Robert Vautard
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Paris, France
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Our study focuses on severe convective storms that occur over the Alpine-Adriatic region. By running simulations for eight real cases and evaluating them against available observations, we found our models did a good job of simulating total precipitation, hail, and lightning. Overall, this research identified important meteorological factors for hail and lightning, and the results indicate that both HAILCAST and LPI diagnostics are promising candidates for future climate research.
Stefania A. Ciliberti, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Jay Pearlman, Kirsten Wilmer-Becker, Pierre Bahurel, Fabrice Ardhuin, Alain Arnaud, Mike Bell, Segolene Berthou, Laurent Bertino, Arthur Capet, Eric Chassignet, Stefano Ciavatta, Mauro Cirano, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Gianpaolo Coro, Stuart Corney, Fraser Davidson, Marie Drevillon, Yann Drillet, Renaud Dussurget, Ghada El Serafy, Katja Fennel, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Patrick Heimbach, Fabrice Hernandez, Patrick Hogan, Ibrahim Hoteit, Sudheer Joseph, Simon Josey, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Simone Libralato, Marco Mancini, Pascal Matte, Angelique Melet, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Andrew M. Moore, Antonio Novellino, Andrew Porter, Heather Regan, Laia Romero, Andreas Schiller, John Siddorn, Joanna Staneva, Cecile Thomas-Courcoux, Marina Tonani, Jose Maria Garcia-Valdecasas, Jennifer Veitch, Karina von Schuckmann, Liying Wan, John Wilkin, and Romane Zufic
State Planet, 1-osr7, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, 2023
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023
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Cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This leads to disagreements on extratropical cyclone climatologies. We present a new approach that combines tracks from individual CDTMs to produce new composite tracks. These new tracks are shown to correspond to physically meaningful systems with distinctive life stages.
Maria Chara Karypidou, Stefan Pieter Sobolowski, Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Grigory Nikulin, and Eleni Katragkou
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1887–1908, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1887-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1887-2023, 2023
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Southern Africa is listed among the climate change hotspots; hence, accurate climate change information is vital for the optimal preparedness of local communities. In this work we assess the degree to which regional climate models (RCMs) are influenced by the global climate models (GCMs) from which they receive their lateral boundary forcing. We find that although GCMs exert a strong impact on RCMs, RCMs are still able to display substantial improvement relative to the driving GCMs.
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
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Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
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A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Roman Brogli, Christoph Heim, Jonas Mensch, Silje Lund Sørland, and Christoph Schär
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 907–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-907-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-907-2023, 2023
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The pseudo-global-warming (PGW) approach is a downscaling methodology that imposes the large-scale GCM-based climate change signal on the boundary conditions of a regional climate simulation. It offers several benefits in comparison to conventional downscaling. We present a detailed description of the methodology, provide companion software to facilitate the preparation of PGW simulations, and present validation and sensitivity studies.
Qinggang Gao, Christian Zeman, Jesus Vergara-Temprado, Daniela C. A. Lima, Peter Molnar, and Christoph Schär
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 189–211, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-189-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-189-2023, 2023
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We developed a vortex identification algorithm for realistic atmospheric simulations. The algorithm enabled us to obtain a climatology of vortex shedding from Madeira Island for a 10-year simulation period. This first objective climatological analysis of vortex streets shows consistency with observed atmospheric conditions. The analysis shows a pronounced annual cycle with an increasing vortex shedding rate from April to August and a sudden decrease in September.
Cathy Hohenegger, Peter Korn, Leonidas Linardakis, René Redler, Reiner Schnur, Panagiotis Adamidis, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Milad Behravesh, Martin Bergemann, Joachim Biercamp, Hendryk Bockelmann, Renate Brokopf, Nils Brüggemann, Lucas Casaroli, Fatemeh Chegini, George Datseris, Monika Esch, Geet George, Marco Giorgetta, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Moritz Hanke, Tatiana Ilyina, Thomas Jahns, Johann Jungclaus, Marcel Kern, Daniel Klocke, Lukas Kluft, Tobias Kölling, Luis Kornblueh, Sergey Kosukhin, Clarissa Kroll, Junhong Lee, Thorsten Mauritsen, Carolin Mehlmann, Theresa Mieslinger, Ann Kristin Naumann, Laura Paccini, Angel Peinado, Divya Sri Praturi, Dian Putrasahan, Sebastian Rast, Thomas Riddick, Niklas Roeber, Hauke Schmidt, Uwe Schulzweida, Florian Schütte, Hans Segura, Radomyra Shevchenko, Vikram Singh, Mia Specht, Claudia Christine Stephan, Jin-Song von Storch, Raphaela Vogel, Christian Wengel, Marius Winkler, Florian Ziemen, Jochem Marotzke, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 779–811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, 2023
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Models of the Earth system used to understand climate and predict its change typically employ a grid spacing of about 100 km. Yet, many atmospheric and oceanic processes occur on much smaller scales. In this study, we present a new model configuration designed for the simulation of the components of the Earth system and their interactions at kilometer and smaller scales, allowing an explicit representation of the main drivers of the flow of energy and matter by solving the underlying equations.
Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, Hanin Binder, Urs Beyerle, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 133–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023, 2023
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Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are strongly ascending, cloud- and precipitation-forming airstreams in extratropical cyclones. In this study we assess their representation in a climate simulation and their changes under global warming. They become moister, become more intense, and reach higher altitudes in a future climate, implying that they potentially have an increased impact on the mid-latitude flow.
Dario Nicolì, Alessio Bellucci, Paolo Ruggieri, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Stefano Materia, Daniele Peano, Giusy Fedele, Riccardo Hénin, and Silvio Gualdi
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-179-2023, 2023
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Decadal climate predictions, obtained by constraining the initial condition of a dynamical model through a truthful estimate of the observed climate state, provide an accurate assessment of the near-term climate and are useful for informing decision-makers on future climate-related risks. The predictive skill for key variables is assessed from the operational decadal prediction system compared with non-initialized historical simulations so as to quantify the added value of initialization.
Wei Li, Jie Chen, Lu Li, Yvan J. Orsolini, Yiheng Xiang, Retish Senan, and Patricia de Rosnay
The Cryosphere, 16, 4985–5000, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4985-2022, 2022
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Snow assimilation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) may influence seasonal forecasts over this region. To investigate the impacts of snow assimilation on the seasonal forecasts of snow, temperature and precipitation, twin ensemble reforecasts are initialized with and without snow assimilation above 1500 m altitude over the TP for spring and summer in 2018. The results show that snow assimilation can improve seasonal forecasts over the TP through the interaction between land and atmosphere.
Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Faron S. Anslow, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Dim Coumou, Kristie L. Ebi, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, Maarten van Aalst, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Michael Wehner, Wenchang Yang, Sihan Li, Dominik L. Schumacher, Mathias Hauser, Rémy Bonnet, Linh N. Luu, Flavio Lehner, Nathan Gillett, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chris Rodell, Roland B. Stull, Rosie Howard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1689–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, 2022
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In June 2021, the Pacific Northwest of the US and Canada saw record temperatures far exceeding those previously observed. This attribution study found such a severe heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change. Assuming no nonlinear interactions, such events have become at least 150 times more common, are about 2 °C hotter and will become even more common as warming continues. Therefore, adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare society.
Julia F. Lockwood, Galina S. Guentchev, Alexander Alabaster, Simon J. Brown, Erika J. Palin, Malcolm J. Roberts, and Hazel E. Thornton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3585–3606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022, 2022
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We describe how we developed a set of 1300 years' worth of European winter windstorm footprints, using a multi-model ensemble of high-resolution global climate models, for use by the insurance industry to analyse windstorm risk. The large amount of data greatly reduces uncertainty on risk estimates compared to using shorter observational data sets and also allows the relationship between windstorm risk and predictable large-scale climate indices to be quantified.
Christian R. Steger, Benjamin Steger, and Christoph Schär
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6817–6840, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6817-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6817-2022, 2022
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Terrain horizon and sky view factor are crucial quantities for many geoscientific applications; e.g. they are used to account for effects of terrain on surface radiation in climate and land surface models. Because typical terrain horizon algorithms are inefficient for high-resolution (< 30 m) elevation data, we developed a new algorithm based on a ray-tracing library. A comparison with two conventional methods revealed both its high performance and its accuracy for complex terrain.
Jorge Baño-Medina, Rodrigo Manzanas, Ezequiel Cimadevilla, Jesús Fernández, Jose González-Abad, Antonio S. Cofiño, and José Manuel Gutiérrez
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6747–6758, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6747-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6747-2022, 2022
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Deep neural networks are used to produce downscaled regional climate change projections over Europe for temperature and precipitation for the first time. The resulting dataset, DeepESD, is analyzed against state-of-the-art downscaling methodologies, reproducing more accurately the observed climate in the historical period and showing plausible future climate change signals with low computational requirements.
Kathrin Wehrli, Fei Luo, Mathias Hauser, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, Dim Coumou, Wilhelm May, Philippe Le Sager, Frank Selten, Olivia Martius, Robert Vautard, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1167–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, 2022
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The ExtremeX experiment was designed to unravel the contribution of processes leading to the occurrence of recent weather and climate extremes. Global climate simulations are carried out with three models. The results show that in constrained experiments, temperature anomalies during heatwaves are well represented, although climatological model biases remain. Further, a substantial contribution of both atmospheric circulation and soil moisture to heat extremes is identified.
Tim Rohrschneider, Johanna Baehr, Veit Lüschow, Dian Putrasahan, and Jochem Marotzke
Ocean Sci., 18, 979–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-979-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-979-2022, 2022
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This paper presents an analysis of wind sensitivity experiments in order to provide insight into the wind forcing dependence of the AMOC by understanding the behavior of its depth scale(s).
Juan Manuel Castillo, Huw W. Lewis, Akhilesh Mishra, Ashis Mitra, Jeff Polton, Ashley Brereton, Andrew Saulter, Alex Arnold, Segolene Berthou, Douglas Clark, Julia Crook, Ananda Das, John Edwards, Xiangbo Feng, Ankur Gupta, Sudheer Joseph, Nicholas Klingaman, Imranali Momin, Christine Pequignet, Claudio Sanchez, Jennifer Saxby, and Maria Valdivieso da Costa
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4193–4223, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, 2022
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A new environmental modelling system has been developed to represent the effect of feedbacks between atmosphere, land, and ocean in the Indian region. Different approaches to simulating tropical cyclones Titli and Fani are demonstrated. It is shown that results are sensitive to the way in which the ocean response to cyclone evolution is captured in the system. Notably, we show how a more rigorous formulation for the near-surface energy budget can be included when air–sea coupling is included.
Steve Delhaye, Thierry Fichefet, François Massonnet, David Docquier, Rym Msadek, Svenya Chripko, Christopher Roberts, Sarah Keeley, and Retish Senan
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 555–573, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022, 2022
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It is unclear how the atmosphere will respond to a retreat of summer Arctic sea ice. Much attention has been paid so far to weather extremes at mid-latitude and in winter. Here we focus on the changes in extremes in surface air temperature and precipitation over the Arctic regions in summer during and following abrupt sea ice retreats. We find that Arctic sea ice loss clearly shifts the extremes in surface air temperature and precipitation over terrestrial regions surrounding the Arctic Ocean.
Christian Zeman and Christoph Schär
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3183–3203, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3183-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3183-2022, 2022
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Our atmosphere is a chaotic system, where even a tiny change can have a big impact. This makes it difficult to assess if small changes, such as the move to a new hardware architecture, will significantly affect a weather and climate model. We present a methodology that allows to objectively verify this. The methodology is applied to several test cases, showing a high sensitivity. Results also show that a major system update of the underlying supercomputer did not significantly affect our model.
Linh N. Luu, Robert Vautard, Pascal Yiou, and Jean-Michel Soubeyroux
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 687–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-687-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-687-2022, 2022
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This study downscales climate information from EURO-CORDEX (approx. 12 km) output to a higher horizontal resolution (approx. 3 km) for the south of France. We also propose a matrix of different indices to evaluate the high-resolution precipitation output. We find that a higher resolution reproduces more realistic extreme precipitation events at both daily and sub-daily timescales. Our results and approach are promising to apply to other Mediterranean regions and climate impact studies.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, 2022
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Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in the climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
Erika Médus, Emma D. Thomassen, Danijel Belušić, Petter Lind, Peter Berg, Jens H. Christensen, Ole B. Christensen, Andreas Dobler, Erik Kjellström, Jonas Olsson, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 693–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022, 2022
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We evaluate the skill of a regional climate model, HARMONIE-Climate, to capture the present-day characteristics of heavy precipitation in the Nordic region and investigate the added value provided by a convection-permitting model version. The higher model resolution improves the representation of hourly heavy- and extreme-precipitation events and their diurnal cycle. The results indicate the benefits of convection-permitting models for constructing climate change projections over the region.
Enrico Scoccimarro, Daniele Peano, Silvio Gualdi, Alessio Bellucci, Tomas Lovato, Pier Giuseppe Fogli, and Antonio Navarra
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1841–1854, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1841-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1841-2022, 2022
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This study evaluated the ability of the CMCC-CM2 climate model participating to the last CMIP6 effort, in representing extreme events of precipitation and temperature at the daily and 6-hourly frequencies. The 1/4° resolution version of the atmospheric model provides better results than the version at 1° resolution for temperature extremes, at both time frequencies. For precipitation extremes, especially at the daily time frequency, the higher resolution does not improve model results.
H. E. Markus Meier, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Cyril Dutheil, Florian Börgel, Kseniia Safonova, Ole B. Christensen, and Erik Kjellström
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 159–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, 2022
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In addition to environmental pressures such as eutrophication, overfishing and contaminants, climate change is believed to have an important impact on the marine environment in the future, and marine management should consider the related risks. Hence, we have compared and assessed available scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea and found considerable uncertainties of the projections caused by the underlying assumptions and model biases, in particular for the water and biogeochemical cycles.
Ole Bøssing Christensen, Erik Kjellström, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, and Hans Eberhard Markus Meier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 133–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022, 2022
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The Baltic Sea Region is very sensitive to climate change, whose impacts could easily exacerbate biodiversity stress from society and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. Therefore, there has been a focus on estimations of future climate change and its impacts in recent research. Models show a strong warming, in particular in the north in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase in the whole region apart from the south during summer. New results improve estimates of future climate change.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Louis-Philippe Caron, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Oliver Gutjahr, Marie-Pierre Moine, Dian Putrasahan, Christopher D. Roberts, Malcolm J. Roberts, Retish Senan, Laurent Terray, Etienne Tourigny, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 269–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-269-2022, 2022
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Climate models do not fully reproduce observations: they show differences (biases) in regional temperature, precipitation, or cloud cover. Reducing model biases is important to increase our confidence in their ability to reproduce present and future climate changes. Model realism is set by its resolution: the finer it is, the more physical processes and interactions it can resolve. We here show that increasing resolution of up to ~ 25 km can help reduce model biases but not remove them entirely.
Mark R. Muetzelfeldt, Reinhard Schiemann, Andrew G. Turner, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Malcolm J. Roberts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6381–6405, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6381-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6381-2021, 2021
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Simulating East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) rainfall poses many challenges because of its multi-scale nature. We evaluate three setups of a 14 km global climate model against observations to see if they improve simulated rainfall. We do this over catchment basins of different sizes to estimate how model performance depends on spatial scale. Using explicit convection improves rainfall diurnal cycle, yet more model tuning is needed to improve mean and intensity biases in simulated summer rainfall.
Jean-Eudes Petit, Jean-Charles Dupont, Olivier Favez, Valérie Gros, Yunjiang Zhang, Jean Sciare, Leila Simon, François Truong, Nicolas Bonnaire, Tanguy Amodeo, Robert Vautard, and Martial Haeffelin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17167–17183, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17167-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17167-2021, 2021
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The COVID-19 outbreak led to lockdowns at national scales in spring 2020. Large cuts in emissions occurred, but the quantitative assessment of their role from observations is hindered by weather and interannual variability. That is why we developed an innovative methodology in order to best characterize the impact of lockdown on atmospheric chemistry. We find that a local decrease in traffic-related pollutants triggered a decrease of secondary aerosols and an increase in ozone.
Roman Brogli, Silje Lund Sørland, Nico Kröner, and Christoph Schär
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1093–1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1093-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1093-2021, 2021
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In a warmer future climate, climate simulations predict that some land areas will experience excessive warming during summer. We show that the excessive summer warming is related to the vertical distribution of warming within the atmosphere. In regions characterized by excessive warming, much of the warming occurs close to the surface. In other regions, most of the warming is redistributed to higher levels in the atmosphere, which weakens the surface warming.
Daniel Regenass, Linda Schlemmer, Elena Jahr, and Christoph Schär
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-426, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-426, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Weather and climate models need to represent the water cycle on land in order to provide accurate estimates of moisture and energy exchange between the land and the atmosphere. Infiltration of water into the soil is often modeled with an equation describing water transport in porous media. Here, we point out some challenges arising in the numerical solution of this equation and show the consequences for the representation of the water cycle in modern weather and climate models.
Silje Lund Sørland, Roman Brogli, Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Emmanuele Russo, Jonas Van de Walle, Bodo Ahrens, Ivonne Anders, Edoardo Bucchignani, Edouard L. Davin, Marie-Estelle Demory, Alessandro Dosio, Hendrik Feldmann, Barbara Früh, Beate Geyer, Klaus Keuler, Donghyun Lee, Delei Li, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Seung-Ki Min, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Burkhardt Rockel, Christoph Schär, Christian Steger, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5125–5154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, 2021
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We review the contribution from the CLM-Community to regional climate projections following the CORDEX framework over Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. How the model configuration, horizontal and vertical resolutions, and choice of driving data influence the model results for the five domains is assessed, with the purpose of aiding the planning and design of regional climate simulations in the future.
Christian Zeman, Nils P. Wedi, Peter D. Dueben, Nikolina Ban, and Christoph Schär
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4617–4639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4617-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4617-2021, 2021
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Kilometer-scale atmospheric models allow us to partially resolve thunderstorms and thus improve their representation. We present an intercomparison between two distinct atmospheric models for 2 summer days with heavy thunderstorms over Europe. We show the dependence of precipitation and vertical wind speed on spatial and temporal resolution and also discuss the possible influence of the system of equations, numerical methods, and diffusion in the models.
Yongkang Xue, Tandong Yao, Aaron A. Boone, Ismaila Diallo, Ye Liu, Xubin Zeng, William K. M. Lau, Shiori Sugimoto, Qi Tang, Xiaoduo Pan, Peter J. van Oevelen, Daniel Klocke, Myung-Seo Koo, Tomonori Sato, Zhaohui Lin, Yuhei Takaya, Constantin Ardilouze, Stefano Materia, Subodh K. Saha, Retish Senan, Tetsu Nakamura, Hailan Wang, Jing Yang, Hongliang Zhang, Mei Zhao, Xin-Zhong Liang, J. David Neelin, Frederic Vitart, Xin Li, Ping Zhao, Chunxiang Shi, Weidong Guo, Jianping Tang, Miao Yu, Yun Qian, Samuel S. P. Shen, Yang Zhang, Kun Yang, Ruby Leung, Yuan Qiu, Daniele Peano, Xin Qi, Yanling Zhan, Michael A. Brunke, Sin Chan Chou, Michael Ek, Tianyi Fan, Hong Guan, Hai Lin, Shunlin Liang, Helin Wei, Shaocheng Xie, Haoran Xu, Weiping Li, Xueli Shi, Paulo Nobre, Yan Pan, Yi Qin, Jeff Dozier, Craig R. Ferguson, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Qing Bao, Jinming Feng, Jinkyu Hong, Songyou Hong, Huilin Huang, Duoying Ji, Zhenming Ji, Shichang Kang, Yanluan Lin, Weiguang Liu, Ryan Muncaster, Patricia de Rosnay, Hiroshi G. Takahashi, Guiling Wang, Shuyu Wang, Weicai Wang, Xu Zhou, and Yuejian Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4465–4494, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021, 2021
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The subseasonal prediction of extreme hydroclimate events such as droughts/floods has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new international initiative which, for the first time, introduces spring land surface temperature anomalies over high mountains to improve precipitation prediction through remote effects of land–atmosphere interactions. More than 40 institutions worldwide are participating in this effort. The experimental protocol and preliminary results are presented.
Jasdeep Singh Anand, Alessandro Anav, Marcello Vitale, Daniele Peano, Nadine Unger, Xu Yue, Robert J. Parker, and Hartmut Boesch
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-125, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-125, 2021
Publication in BG not foreseen
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Ozone damages plants, which prevents them from absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere. This poses a potential threat to preventing dangerous climate change. In this work, satellite observations of forest cover, ozone, climate, and growing season are combined with an empirical model to estimate the carbon lost due to ozone exposure over Europe. The estimated carbon losses agree well with prior modelled estimates, showing for the first time that satellites can be used to better understand this effect.
Oliver Gutjahr, Nils Brüggemann, Helmuth Haak, Johann H. Jungclaus, Dian A. Putrasahan, Katja Lohmann, and Jin-Song von Storch
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2317–2349, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2317-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2317-2021, 2021
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We compare four ocean vertical mixing schemes in 100-year coupled simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) and analyse their model biases. Overall, the mixing schemes modify biases in the ocean interior that vary with region and variable but produce a similar global bias pattern. We therefore cannot classify any scheme as superior but conclude that the chosen mixing scheme may be important for regional biases.
Daniele Peano, Deborah Hemming, Stefano Materia, Christine Delire, Yuanchao Fan, Emilie Joetzjer, Hanna Lee, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Taejin Park, Philippe Peylin, David Wårlind, Andy Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 2405–2428, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2405-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2405-2021, 2021
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Global climate models are the scientist’s tools used for studying past, present, and future climate conditions. This work examines the ability of a group of our tools in reproducing and capturing the right timing and length of the season when plants show their green leaves. This season, indeed, is fundamental for CO2 exchanges between land, atmosphere, and climate. This work shows that discrepancies compared to observations remain, demanding further polishing of these tools.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Folmer Krikken, Sophie Lewis, Nicholas J. Leach, Flavio Lehner, Kate R. Saunders, Michiel van Weele, Karsten Haustein, Sihan Li, David Wallom, Sarah Sparrow, Julie Arrighi, Roop K. Singh, Maarten K. van Aalst, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Robert Vautard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 941–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, 2021
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Southeastern Australia suffered from disastrous bushfires during the 2019/20 fire season, raising the question whether these have become more likely due to climate change. We found no attributable trend in extreme annual or monthly low precipitation but a clear shift towards more extreme heat. However, this shift is underestimated by the models. Analysing fire weather directly, we found that the chance has increased by at least 30 %, but due to the underestimation it could well be higher.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
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We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Trang Van Pham, Christian Steger, Burkhardt Rockel, Klaus Keuler, Ingo Kirchner, Mariano Mertens, Daniel Rieger, Günther Zängl, and Barbara Früh
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 985–1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-985-2021, 2021
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A new regional climate model was prepared based on a weather forecast model. Slow processes of the climate system such as ocean state development and greenhouse gas emissions were implemented. A model infrastructure and evaluation tools were also prepared to facilitate long-term simulations and model evalution. The first ICON-CLM results were close to observations and comparable to those from COSMO-CLM, the recommended model being used at the Deutscher Wetterdienst and CLM Community.
Torben Schmith, Peter Thejll, Peter Berg, Fredrik Boberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Bo Christiansen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Marianne Sloth Madsen, and Christian Steger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 273–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-273-2021, 2021
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European extreme precipitation is expected to change in the future; this is based on climate model projections. But, since climate models have errors, projections are uncertain. We study this uncertainty in the projections by comparing results from an ensemble of 19 climate models. Results can be used to give improved estimates of future extreme precipitation for Europe.
Liang Guo, Ruud J. van der Ent, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Marie-Estelle Demory, Pier Luigi Vidale, Andrew G. Turner, Claudia C. Stephan, and Amulya Chevuturi
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6011–6028, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6011-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6011-2020, 2020
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Precipitation over East Asia simulated in the Met Office Unified Model is compared with observations. Moisture sources of EA precipitation are traced using a moisture tracking model. Biases in moisture sources are linked to biases in precipitation. Using the tracking model, changes in moisture sources can be attributed to changes in SST, circulation and associated evaporation. This proves that the method used in this study is useful to identify the causes of biases in regional precipitation.
Emmanuele Russo, Silje Lund Sørland, Ingo Kirchner, Martijn Schaap, Christoph C. Raible, and Ulrich Cubasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5779–5797, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, 2020
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The parameter space of the COSMO-CLM RCM is investigated for the Central Asia CORDEX domain using a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) with different parameter values. Results show that only a subset of model parameters presents relevant changes in model performance and these changes depend on the considered region and variable: objective calibration methods are highly necessary in this case. Additionally, the results suggest the need for calibrating an RCM when targeting different domains.
Carley E. Iles, Robert Vautard, Jane Strachan, Sylvie Joussaume, Bernd R. Eggen, and Chris D. Hewitt
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5583–5607, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5583-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5583-2020, 2020
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We investigate how increased resolution affects the simulation of European climate extremes for global and regional climate models to inform modelling strategies. Precipitation extremes become heavier with higher resolution, especially over mountains, wind extremes become somewhat stronger, and for temperature extremes warm biases are reduced over mountains. Differences with resolution for the global model appear to come from downscaling effects rather than improved large-scale circulation.
Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike Otto, Robert Vautard, Karin van der Wiel, Andrew King, Fraser Lott, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, and Maarten van Aalst
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 177–203, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020, 2020
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Event attribution studies can now be performed at short notice. We document a protocol developed by the World Weather Attribution group. It includes choices of which events to analyse, the event definition, observational analysis, model evaluation, multi-model multi-method attribution, hazard synthesis, vulnerability and exposure analysis, and communication procedures. The protocol will be useful for future event attribution studies and as a basis for an operational attribution service.
Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Cristina Primo, Silje Sørland, and Bodo Ahrens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 903–923, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-903-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-903-2020, 2020
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Information exchange (IE) from the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is investigated. Observational data show that IOD and ENSO synergistically exchange information on ISMR variability over central India. IE patterns observed in three global climate models (GCMs) differ from observations. Our study highlights new perspectives that IE metrics could bring to climate science.
Stefan Rüdisühli, Michael Sprenger, David Leutwyler, Christoph Schär, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 675–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-675-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-675-2020, 2020
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Most precipitation over Europe is linked to low-pressure systems, cold fronts, warm fronts, or high-pressure systems. Based on a massive computer simulation able to resolve thunderstorms, we quantify in detail how much precipitation these weather systems produced during 2000–2008. We find distinct seasonal and regional differences, such as fronts precipitating a lot in fall and winter over the North Atlantic but high-pressure systems mostly in summer over the continent by way of thunderstorms.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Johannes Meyerholt, Sönke Zaehle, Pierre Friedlingstein, Victor Brovkin, Yuanchao Fan, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, Hanna Lee, Daniele Peano, Benjamin Smith, David Wårlind, and Andy J. Wiltshire
Biogeosciences, 17, 5129–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, 2020
Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Jared Lewis, Matthew J. Gidden, Elisabeth Vogel, Mandy Freund, Urs Beyerle, Claudia Gessner, Alexander Nauels, Nico Bauer, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Andrew John, Paul B. Krummel, Gunnar Luderer, Nicolai Meinshausen, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter J. Rayner, Stefan Reimann, Steven J. Smith, Marten van den Berg, Guus J. M. Velders, Martin K. Vollmer, and Ray H. J. Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, 2020
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This study provides the future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations under the new set of so-called SSP scenarios (the successors of the IPCC SRES and previous representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios). The projected CO2 concentrations range from 350 ppm for low-emission scenarios by 2150 to more than 2000 ppm under the high-emission scenarios. We also provide concentrations, latitudinal gradients, and seasonality for most of the other 42 considered GHGs.
Rein Haarsma, Mario Acosta, Rena Bakhshi, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Louis-Philippe Caron, Miguel Castrillo, Susanna Corti, Paolo Davini, Eleftheria Exarchou, Federico Fabiano, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes Franco, Javier García-Serrano, Jost von Hardenberg, Torben Koenigk, Xavier Levine, Virna Loana Meccia, Twan van Noije, Gijs van den Oord, Froila M. Palmeiro, Mario Rodrigo, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Etienne Tourigny, Shiyu Wang, Michiel van Weele, and Klaus Wyser
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3507–3527, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3507-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3507-2020, 2020
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HighResMIP is an international coordinated CMIP6 effort to investigate the improvement in climate modeling caused by an increase in horizontal resolution. This paper describes EC-Earth3P-(HR), which has been developed for HighResMIP. First analyses reveal that increasing resolution does improve certain aspects of the simulated climate but that many other biases still continue, possibly related to phenomena that are still not yet resolved and need to be parameterized.
Reinhard Schiemann, Panos Athanasiadis, David Barriopedro, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Katja Lohmann, Malcolm J. Roberts, Dmitry V. Sein, Christopher D. Roberts, Laurent Terray, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 277–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-277-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-277-2020, 2020
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In blocking situations the westerly atmospheric flow in the midlatitudes is blocked by near-stationary high-pressure systems. Blocking can be associated with extremes such as cold spells and heat waves. Climate models are known to underestimate blocking occurrence. Here, we assess the latest generation of models and find improvements in simulated blocking, partly due to increases in model resolution. These new models are therefore more suitable for studying climate extremes related to blocking.
Torben Koenigk, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Virna Meccia, Oliver Gutjahr, Laura C. Jackson, Adrian L. New, Pablo Ortega, Christopher Roberts, Malcolm Roberts, Thomas Arsouze, Doroteaciro Iovino, Marie-Pierre Moine, and Dmitry V. Sein
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2020-41, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2020-41, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The mixing of water masses into the deep ocean in the North Atlantic is important for the entire global ocean circulation. We use seven global climate models to investigate the effect of increasing the model resolution on this deep ocean mixing. The main result is that increased model resolution leads to a deeper mixing of water masses in the Labrador Sea but has less effect in the Greenland Sea. However, most of the models overestimate the deep ocean mixing compared to observations.
Minchao Wu, Grigory Nikulin, Erik Kjellström, Danijel Belušić, Colin Jones, and David Lindstedt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 377–394, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-377-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-377-2020, 2020
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Regional Climate Models constitute a downscaling tool to provide high-resolution data for impact and adaptation studies. However, there is no unique definition of the added value of downscaling as it depends on many factors. We investigate the impact of spatial resolution and model formulation on downscaled rainfall in Africa. Our results show that improvements in downscaled rainfall compared to the driving reanalysis are often related to model formulation and not always to higher resolution.
Danijel Belušić, Hylke de Vries, Andreas Dobler, Oskar Landgren, Petter Lind, David Lindstedt, Rasmus A. Pedersen, Juan Carlos Sánchez-Perrino, Erika Toivonen, Bert van Ulft, Fuxing Wang, Ulf Andrae, Yurii Batrak, Erik Kjellström, Geert Lenderink, Grigory Nikulin, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Ernesto Rodríguez-Camino, Patrick Samuelsson, Erik van Meijgaard, and Minchao Wu
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1311–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020, 2020
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A new regional climate modelling system, HCLIM38, is presented and shown to be applicable in different regions ranging from the tropics to the Arctic. The main focus is on climate simulations at horizontal resolutions between 1 and 4 km, the so-called convection-permitting scales, even though the model can also be used at coarser resolutions. The benefits of simulating climate at convection-permitting scales are shown and are particularly evident for climate extremes.
Matthias Röthlisberger, Michael Sprenger, Emmanouil Flaounas, Urs Beyerle, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 45–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-45-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-45-2020, 2020
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In this study we quantify how much the coldest, middle and hottest third of all days during extremely hot summers contribute to their respective seasonal mean anomaly. This
extreme-summer substructurevaries substantially across the Northern Hemisphere and is directly related to the local physical drivers of extreme summers. Furthermore, comparing re-analysis (i.e. measurement-based) and climate model extreme-summer substructures reveals a remarkable level of agreement.
Malcolm J. Roberts, Alex Baker, Ed W. Blockley, Daley Calvert, Andrew Coward, Helene T. Hewitt, Laura C. Jackson, Till Kuhlbrodt, Pierre Mathiot, Christopher D. Roberts, Reinhard Schiemann, Jon Seddon, Benoît Vannière, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4999–5028, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4999-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4999-2019, 2019
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We investigate the role that horizontal grid spacing plays in global coupled climate model simulations, together with examining the efficacy of a new design of simulation experiments that is being used by the community for multi-model comparison. We found that finer grid spacing in both atmosphere and ocean–sea ice models leads to a general reduction in bias compared to observations, and that once eddies in the ocean are resolved, several key climate processes are greatly improved.
Katharina Bülow, Heike Huebener, Klaus Keuler, Christoph Menz, Susanne Pfeifer, Hans Ramthun, Arne Spekat, Christian Steger, Claas Teichmann, and Kirsten Warrach-Sagi
Adv. Sci. Res., 16, 241–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-241-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-241-2019, 2019
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In the German regional climate modeling project ReKliEs-De changes in temperature and precipitation indices are calculated from a multi model ensemble for the end of the 21st century. The results for the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are compared to the results of the “business as usual” scenario RCP8.5. The increase of mean annual temperature and of the number of summer days will be around 3 times higher and in summer, the increase of dry days could be twice as high in RCP8.5 compared to RCP2.6.
Yvan Orsolini, Martin Wegmann, Emanuel Dutra, Boqi Liu, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Kun Yang, Patricia de Rosnay, Congwen Zhu, Wenli Wang, Retish Senan, and Gabriele Arduini
The Cryosphere, 13, 2221–2239, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2221-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2221-2019, 2019
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The Tibetan Plateau region exerts a considerable influence on regional climate, yet the snowpack over that region is poorly represented in both climate and forecast models due a large precipitation and snowfall bias. We evaluate the snowpack in state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalyses against in situ observations and satellite remote sensing products. Improved snow initialisation through better use of snow observations in reanalyses may improve medium-range to seasonal weather forecasts.
Oliver Gutjahr, Dian Putrasahan, Katja Lohmann, Johann H. Jungclaus, Jin-Song von Storch, Nils Brüggemann, Helmuth Haak, and Achim Stössel
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3241–3281, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3241-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3241-2019, 2019
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We analyse how climatic mean states of the atmosphere and ocean change with increasing the horizontal model resolution of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) and how they are affected by the representation of vertical mixing in the ocean. It is in particular a high-resolution ocean that reduces biases not only in the ocean but also in the atmosphere. The vertical mixing scheme affects the strength and stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).
Peter Berg, Ole B. Christensen, Katharina Klehmet, Geert Lenderink, Jonas Olsson, Claas Teichmann, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 957–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-957-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-957-2019, 2019
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A state-of-the-art regional climate model ensemble for Europe is investigated for extreme precipitation intensities. The models poorly reproduce short duration events of less than a few hours. Further, there is poor connection to some known hotspots for extreme cases. The model performance is much improved at 12 h durations. Projected future increases scale with seasonal mean temperature change, within a range from a few percent to over 10 percent per degree Celsius.
Manu Anna Thomas, Abhay Devasthale, Torben Koenigk, Klaus Wyser, Malcolm Roberts, Christopher Roberts, and Katja Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1679–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1679-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1679-2019, 2019
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Cloud processes occur at scales ranging from few micrometres to hundreds of kilometres. Their representation in global climate models and their fidelity are thus sensitive to the choice of spatial resolution. Here, cloud radiative effects simulated by models are evaluated using a satellite dataset, with a focus on investigating the sensitivity to spatial resolution. The evaluations are carried out using two approaches: the traditional statistical comparisons and the process-oriented evaluation.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Pascal Yiou, Hylke de Vries, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Stepek, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Cecilia Costella, Roop Singh, and Claudia Tebaldi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 271–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, 2019
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The effect of human activities on the probability of winter wind storms like the ones that occurred in Western Europe in January 2018 is analysed using multiple model ensembles. Despite a significant probability decline in observations, we find no significant change in probabilities due to human influence on climate so far. However, such extreme events are likely to be slightly more frequent in the future. The observed decrease in storminess is likely to be due to increasing roughness.
Daniel T. McCoy, Paul R. Field, Gregory S. Elsaesser, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Brian H. Kahn, Mark D. Zelinka, Chihiro Kodama, Thorsten Mauritsen, Benoit Vanniere, Malcolm Roberts, Pier L. Vidale, David Saint-Martin, Aurore Voldoire, Rein Haarsma, Adrian Hill, Ben Shipway, and Jonathan Wilkinson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1147–1172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1147-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1147-2019, 2019
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The largest single source of uncertainty in the climate sensitivity predicted by global climate models is how much low-altitude clouds change as the climate warms. Models predict that the amount of liquid within and the brightness of low-altitude clouds increase in the extratropics with warming. We show that increased fluxes of moisture into extratropical storms in the midlatitudes explain the majority of the observed trend and the modeled increase in liquid water within these storms.
Samuel Monhart, Massimiliano Zappa, Christoph Spirig, Christoph Schär, and Konrad Bogner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 493–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-493-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-493-2019, 2019
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Subseasonal streamflow forecasts have received increasing attention during the past decade, but their performance in alpine catchments is still largely unknown. We analyse the effect of a statistical correction technique applied to the driving meteorological forecasts on the performance of the resulting streamflow forecasts. The study shows the benefits of such hydrometeorological ensemble prediction systems and highlights the importance of snow-related processes for subseasonal predictions.
Julien Beaumet, Gerhard Krinner, Michel Déqué, Rein Haarsma, and Laurent Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 321–342, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-321-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-321-2019, 2019
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Oceanic surface conditions coming from coupled ocean–atmosphere global climate models bear considerable biases over the historical climate. We review and present new methods for bias correcting sea surface temperatures and sea-ice concentration coming from such models in order to use them as boundary conditions for atmospheric-only GCMs. For sea ice, we propose a new analogue method which allows us to reproduce more physically consistent future bias-corrected sea-ice concentration maps.
Eveline C. van der Linden, Reindert J. Haarsma, and Gerard van der Schrier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 191–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-191-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-191-2019, 2019
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This paper provides a process-based assessment of the impact of spatial model resolution on future projections of European soil moisture changes. In central-western Europe, simulated future drying is more severe and starts earlier in the season at higher global resolution compared to conventional resolution simulations. The enhanced drying suggests that future projections of central-western European drying by conventional resolution global climate models have been potentially underestimated.
Christopher D. Roberts, Retish Senan, Franco Molteni, Souhail Boussetta, Michael Mayer, and Sarah P. E. Keeley
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3681–3712, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3681-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3681-2018, 2018
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This paper presents climate model configurations of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System (ECMWF-IFS) for different combinations of ocean and atmosphere resolution. These configurations are used to perform multi-decadal experiments following the protocols of the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) and phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).
Claudia Christine Stephan, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Pier Luigi Vidale, Andrew G. Turner, Marie-Estelle Demory, and Liang Guo
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3215–3233, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3215-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3215-2018, 2018
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Summer precipitation over China in the MetUM reaches twice its observed values. Increasing the horizontal resolution of the model and adding air–sea coupling have little effect on these biases. Nevertheless, MetUM correctly simulates spatial patterns of temporally coherent precipitation and the associated large-scale processes. This suggests that the model may provide useful predictions of summer intraseasonal variability despite the substantial biases in overall intraseasonal variance.
Stefan Brönnimann, Jan Rajczak, Erich M. Fischer, Christoph C. Raible, Marco Rohrer, and Christoph Schär
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2047–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, 2018
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Heavy precipitation events in Switzerland are expected to become more intense, but the seasonality also changes. Analysing a large set of model simulations, we find that annual maximum rainfall events become less frequent in late summer and more frequent in early summer and early autumn. The seasonality shift is arguably related to summer drying. Results suggest that changes in the seasonal cycle need to be accounted for when preparing for moderately extreme precipitation events.
Reinhard Schiemann, Pier Luigi Vidale, Len C. Shaffrey, Stephanie J. Johnson, Malcolm J. Roberts, Marie-Estelle Demory, Matthew S. Mizielinski, and Jane Strachan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3933–3950, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3933-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3933-2018, 2018
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A new generation of global climate models with resolutions between 50 and 10 km is becoming available. Here, we assess how well one such model simulates European precipitation. We find clear improvements in the mean precipitation pattern, and importantly also for extreme daily precipitation over 30 major European river basins. Despite remaining limitations, new high-resolution global models hold great promise for improved climate predictions of European precipitation at impact-relevant scales.
Erik Kjellström, Grigory Nikulin, Gustav Strandberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Daniela Jacob, Klaus Keuler, Geert Lenderink, Erik van Meijgaard, Christoph Schär, Samuel Somot, Silje Lund Sørland, Claas Teichmann, and Robert Vautard
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 459–478, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-459-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-459-2018, 2018
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Based on high-resolution regional climate models we investigate European climate change at 1.5 and 2 °C of global warming compared to pre-industrial levels. Considerable near-surface warming exceeding that of the global mean is found for most of Europe, already at the lower 1.5 °C of warming level. Changes in precipitation and near-surface wind speed are identified. The 1.5 °C of warming level shows significantly less change compared to the 2 °C level, indicating the importance of mitigation.
Claudia Christine Stephan, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Pier Luigi Vidale, Andrew G. Turner, Marie-Estelle Demory, and Liang Guo
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1823–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1823-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1823-2018, 2018
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Climate simulations are evaluated for their ability to reproduce year-to-year variability of precipitation over China. Mean precipitation and variability are too high in all simulations but improve with finer resolution and coupling. Simulations reproduce the observed spatial patterns of rainfall variability. However, not all of these patterns are associated with observed mechanisms. For example, simulations do not reproduce summer rainfall along the Yangtze valley in response to El Niño.
Didin Agustian Permadi, Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh, and Robert Vautard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3321–3334, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3321-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3321-2018, 2018
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This research quantified impacts resulted in the future (2030) from emission reduction measures for Southeast Asia (SEA) countries. Emission scenarios were developed based on current policies in Indonesia and Thailand. Impacts were quantified in terms of the avoided number of premature death and reduction in radiative forcing resulted from the emission reduction measures.
Didin Agustian Permadi, Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh, and Robert Vautard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2725–2747, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2725-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2725-2018, 2018
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This research quantified the emissions of toxic air pollutants and climate forcing agents from Southeast Asia in 2007. The emission results were used for model simulation of particulate matter air quality. The model outputs were reasonably comparable to available ground level measurement data for both meteorology and air quality. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) for total aerosol and for black carbon alone was calculated and compared to satellite AOD.
Prisco Frei, Sven Kotlarski, Mark A. Liniger, and Christoph Schär
The Cryosphere, 12, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1-2018, 2018
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Snowfall is central to Alpine environments, and its future changes will be associated with pronounced impacts. We here assess future snowfall changes in the European Alps based on an ensemble of state-of-the-art regional climate model experiments and on two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The results reveal pronounced changes in the Alpine snowfall climate with considerable snowfall reductions at low and mid-elevations but also snowfall increases at high elevations in midwinter.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Jacob Schewe, Lila Warszawski, Fang Zhao, Louise Chini, Sebastien Denvil, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, Kate Halladay, George Hurtt, Matthias Mengel, Daisuke Murakami, Sebastian Ostberg, Alexander Popp, Riccardo Riva, Miodrag Stevanovic, Tatsuo Suzuki, Jan Volkholz, Eleanor Burke, Philippe Ciais, Kristie Ebi, Tyler D. Eddy, Joshua Elliott, Eric Galbraith, Simon N. Gosling, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Jochen Hinkel, Christian Hof, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Valentina Krysanova, Rafael Marcé, Hannes Müller Schmied, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Don Pierson, Derek P. Tittensor, Robert Vautard, Michelle van Vliet, Matthias F. Biber, Richard A. Betts, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Delphine Deryng, Steve Frolking, Chris D. Jones, Heike K. Lotze, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Ritvik Sahajpal, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, and Yoshiki Yamagata
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, 2017
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This paper describes the simulation scenario design for the next phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is designed to facilitate a contribution to the scientific basis for the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming. ISIMIP brings together over 80 climate-impact models, covering impacts on hydrology, biomes, forests, heat-related mortality, permafrost, tropical cyclones, fisheries, agiculture, energy, and coastal infrastructure.
Heiko Paeth, Christian Steger, Jingmin Li, Sebastian G. Mutz, and Todd A. Ehlers
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-111, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-111, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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We use a high-resolution regional climate model to investigate various episodes of distinct climate states over the Tibetan Plateau region during the Cenozoic rise of the Plateau and Quaternary glacial/interglacial cycles. The simulated changes are in good agreement with available paleo-climatic reconstructions from proxy data. It is shown that in some regions of the Tibetan Plateau the climate anomalies during the Quaternary have been as strong as the changes occurring during the uplift period.
Augustin Colette, Camilla Andersson, Astrid Manders, Kathleen Mar, Mihaela Mircea, Maria-Teresa Pay, Valentin Raffort, Svetlana Tsyro, Cornelius Cuvelier, Mario Adani, Bertrand Bessagnet, Robert Bergström, Gino Briganti, Tim Butler, Andrea Cappelletti, Florian Couvidat, Massimo D'Isidoro, Thierno Doumbia, Hilde Fagerli, Claire Granier, Chris Heyes, Zig Klimont, Narendra Ojha, Noelia Otero, Martijn Schaap, Katarina Sindelarova, Annemiek I. Stegehuis, Yelva Roustan, Robert Vautard, Erik van Meijgaard, Marta Garcia Vivanco, and Peter Wind
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3255–3276, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3255-2017, 2017
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The EURODELTA-Trends numerical experiment has been designed to assess the capability of chemistry-transport models to capture the evolution of surface air quality over the 1990–2010 period in Europe. It also includes sensitivity experiments in order to analyse the relative contribution of (i) emission changes, (ii) meteorological variability, and (iii) boundary conditions to air quality trends. The article is a detailed presentation of the experiment design and participating models.
Martin Wild, Atsumu Ohmura, Christoph Schär, Guido Müller, Doris Folini, Matthias Schwarz, Maria Zyta Hakuba, and Arturo Sanchez-Lorenzo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 601–613, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-601-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-601-2017, 2017
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The Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) is a database for the central storage of worldwide measured energy fluxes at the Earth's surface, maintained at ETH Zurich (Switzerland). This paper documents the status of the GEBA version 2017 database, presents the new web interface and user access, and reviews the scientific impact that GEBA data had in various applications. GEBA has continuously been expanded and updated and to date contains around 500 000 monthly mean entries from 2500 locations.
Heike Huebener, Peter Hoffmann, Klaus Keuler, Susanne Pfeifer, Hans Ramthun, Arne Spekat, Christian Steger, and Kirsten Warrach-Sagi
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 261–269, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-261-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-261-2017, 2017
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There is still a large gap between climate research results and their use in climate impact research and policy advisory. One of the many approaches taken to reduce this gap was a midterm user workshop of the German project ReKliEs-De. The users were asked to guide the further project work towards their needs. Conclusions from the workshop included the need for more
plain textguidance on climate model strengths and weaknesses as well as more research on climate impact system functioning.
Malte Meinshausen, Elisabeth Vogel, Alexander Nauels, Katja Lorbacher, Nicolai Meinshausen, David M. Etheridge, Paul J. Fraser, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter J. Rayner, Cathy M. Trudinger, Paul B. Krummel, Urs Beyerle, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Ian G. Enting, Rachel M. Law, Chris R. Lunder, Simon O'Doherty, Ron G. Prinn, Stefan Reimann, Mauro Rubino, Guus J. M. Velders, Martin K. Vollmer, Ray H. J. Wang, and Ray Weiss
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2057–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, 2017
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Climate change is primarily driven by human-induced increases of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Based on ongoing community efforts (e.g. AGAGE and NOAA networks, ice cores), this study presents historical concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O and 40 other GHGs from year 0 to year 2014. The data is recommended as input for climate models for pre-industrial, historical runs under CMIP6. Global means, but also latitudinal by monthly surface concentration fields are provided.
Pascal Yiou, Aglaé Jézéquel, Philippe Naveau, Frederike E. L. Otto, Robert Vautard, and Mathieu Vrac
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 3, 17–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-17-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-17-2017, 2017
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The attribution of classes of extreme events, such as heavy precipitation or heatwaves, relies on the estimate of small probabilities (with and without climate change). Such events are connected to the large-scale atmospheric circulation. This paper links such probabilities with properties of the atmospheric circulation by using a Bayesian decomposition. We test this decomposition on a case of extreme precipitation in the UK, in January 2014.
Rafael Abel, Claus W. Böning, Richard J. Greatbatch, Helene T. Hewitt, and Malcolm J. Roberts
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2017-24, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2017-24, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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In coupled global atmosphere ocean models a feedback from ocean surface currents to atmospheric winds was found. Surface winds are energized by about 30 % of the ocean currents. We were able to implement this feedback in uncoupled ocean models which results in a realistic surface flux coupling. Due to changes in the dissipation the kinetic energy of the time-variable flow is increased up to 10 % when this feedback is implemented. Implementation in other models should be straightforward.
David Walters, Ian Boutle, Malcolm Brooks, Thomas Melvin, Rachel Stratton, Simon Vosper, Helen Wells, Keith Williams, Nigel Wood, Thomas Allen, Andrew Bushell, Dan Copsey, Paul Earnshaw, John Edwards, Markus Gross, Steven Hardiman, Chris Harris, Julian Heming, Nicholas Klingaman, Richard Levine, James Manners, Gill Martin, Sean Milton, Marion Mittermaier, Cyril Morcrette, Thomas Riddick, Malcolm Roberts, Claudio Sanchez, Paul Selwood, Alison Stirling, Chris Smith, Dan Suri, Warren Tennant, Pier Luigi Vidale, Jonathan Wilkinson, Martin Willett, Steve Woolnough, and Prince Xavier
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1487–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1487-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1487-2017, 2017
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Global Atmosphere (GA) configurations of the Unified Model (UM) and Global Land (GL) configurations of JULES are developed for use in any global atmospheric modelling application.
We describe a recent iteration of these configurations: GA6/GL6. This includes ENDGame: a new dynamical core designed to improve the model's accuracy, stability and scalability. GA6 is now operational in a variety of Met Office and UM collaborators applications and hence its documentation is important.
We describe a recent iteration of these configurations: GA6/GL6. This includes ENDGame: a new dynamical core designed to improve the model's accuracy, stability and scalability. GA6 is now operational in a variety of Met Office and UM collaborators applications and hence its documentation is important.
Daniel Mitchell, Krishna AchutaRao, Myles Allen, Ingo Bethke, Urs Beyerle, Andrew Ciavarella, Piers M. Forster, Jan Fuglestvedt, Nathan Gillett, Karsten Haustein, William Ingram, Trond Iversen, Viatcheslav Kharin, Nicholas Klingaman, Neil Massey, Erich Fischer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, John Scinocca, Øyvind Seland, Hideo Shiogama, Emily Shuckburgh, Sarah Sparrow, Dáithí Stone, Peter Uhe, David Wallom, Michael Wehner, and Rashyd Zaaboul
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 571–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, 2017
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This paper provides an experimental design to assess impacts of a world that is 1.5 °C warmer than at pre-industrial levels. The design is a new way to approach impacts from the climate community, and aims to answer questions related to the recent Paris Agreement. In particular the paper provides a method for studying extreme events under relatively high mitigation scenarios.
Reindert J. Haarsma, Malcolm J. Roberts, Pier Luigi Vidale, Catherine A. Senior, Alessio Bellucci, Qing Bao, Ping Chang, Susanna Corti, Neven S. Fučkar, Virginie Guemas, Jost von Hardenberg, Wilco Hazeleger, Chihiro Kodama, Torben Koenigk, L. Ruby Leung, Jian Lu, Jing-Jia Luo, Jiafu Mao, Matthew S. Mizielinski, Ryo Mizuta, Paulo Nobre, Masaki Satoh, Enrico Scoccimarro, Tido Semmler, Justin Small, and Jin-Song von Storch
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4185–4208, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016, 2016
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Recent progress in computing power has enabled climate models to simulate more processes in detail and on a smaller scale. Here we present a common protocol for these high-resolution runs that will foster the analysis and understanding of the impact of model resolution on the simulated climate. These runs will also serve as a more reliable source for assessing climate risks that are associated with small-scale weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones.
William J. Gutowski Jr., Filippo Giorgi, Bertrand Timbal, Anne Frigon, Daniela Jacob, Hyun-Suk Kang, Krishnan Raghavan, Boram Lee, Christopher Lennard, Grigory Nikulin, Eleanor O'Rourke, Michel Rixen, Silvina Solman, Tannecia Stephenson, and Fredolin Tangang
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4087–4095, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4087-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4087-2016, 2016
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The Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) is a diagnostic MIP in CMIP6. CORDEX builds on a foundation of previous downscaling intercomparison projects to provide a common framework for downscaling activities around the world. The CORDEX Regional Challenges provide a focus for downscaling research and a basis for making use of CMIP6 global output to produce downscaled projected changes in regional climates, and assess sources of uncertainties in the projections.
Rasmus E. Benestad, Retish Senan, and Yvan Orsolini
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 851–861, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-851-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-851-2016, 2016
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Seasonal predictions have been challenging for mid-latitude regions such as Europe, and we suspect that one reason may be due to subjective choices in how the forecast models are configured. We tested how (1) the inclusion and omission of the representation of the stratosphere affect the predictions and (2) the degree of detail in the sea-ice description. The test was carried out with a set of simulations (experiments) using a technique known as "factorial regression".
Helene T. Hewitt, Malcolm J. Roberts, Pat Hyder, Tim Graham, Jamie Rae, Stephen E. Belcher, Romain Bourdallé-Badie, Dan Copsey, Andrew Coward, Catherine Guiavarch, Chris Harris, Richard Hill, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Gurvan Madec, Matthew S. Mizielinski, Erica Neininger, Adrian L. New, Jean-Christophe Rioual, Bablu Sinha, David Storkey, Ann Shelly, Livia Thorpe, and Richard A. Wood
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3655–3670, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3655-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3655-2016, 2016
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We examine the impact in a coupled model of increasing atmosphere and ocean horizontal resolution and the frequency of coupling between the atmosphere and ocean. We demonstrate that increasing the ocean resolution from 1/4 degree to 1/12 degree has a major impact on ocean circulation and global heat transports. The results add to the body of evidence suggesting that ocean resolution is an important consideration when developing coupled models for weather and climate applications.
Alex C. Ruane, Claas Teichmann, Nigel W. Arnell, Timothy R. Carter, Kristie L. Ebi, Katja Frieler, Clare M. Goodess, Bruce Hewitson, Radley Horton, R. Sari Kovats, Heike K. Lotze, Linda O. Mearns, Antonio Navarra, Dennis S. Ojima, Keywan Riahi, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Matthias Themessl, and Katharine Vincent
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3493–3515, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3493-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3493-2016, 2016
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The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation, and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for CMIP6 was created to improve communications between communities that apply climate model output for societal benefit and the climate model centers. This manuscript describes the establishment of the VIACS Advisory Board as a coherent avenue for communication utilizing leading networks, experts, and programs; results of initial interactions during the development of CMIP6; and its potential next activities.
David Leutwyler, Oliver Fuhrer, Xavier Lapillonne, Daniel Lüthi, and Christoph Schär
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3393–3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3393-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3393-2016, 2016
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The representation of moist convection (thunderstorms and rain showers) in climate models represents a major challenge, as this process is usually approximated due to the lack of appropriate computational resolution. Climate simulations using horizontal resolution of O(1 km) allow one to explicitly resolve deep convection and thus allow for an improved representation of the water cycle. We present a set of such simulations covering the European scale using a climate model enabled for GPUs.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Sjoukje Philip, Emma Aalbers, Robert Vautard, Friederike Otto, Karsten Haustein, Florence Habets, Roop Singh, and Heidi Cullen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-308, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-308, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Extreme rain caused flooding in France and Germany at the end of May 2016. After such an event the question is always posed to what extent it can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Using observations and five model ensembles we give a first answer. For the 3-day precipitation extremes over the Seine and Loire basins that caused the flooding all methods agree that the probability has increased by a factor of about two. For 1-day precipitation extremes in Germany the methods disagree.
Li Liu, Fabien Solmon, Robert Vautard, Lynda Hamaoui-Laguel, Csaba Zsolt Torma, and Filippo Giorgi
Biogeosciences, 13, 2769–2786, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2769-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2769-2016, 2016
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To study the distribution of airborne ragweed pollen in changing environments and associated health risks over Europe, we introduce an approach with explicit treatment of pollen ripening, release and dispersion due to environmental drivers in an online modelling framework where climate is integrated with dispersion and vegetation production. From a simulated pollen season and concentration pattern health risks are evaluated through calculation of exposure time above health-relevant threshold levels.
Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, and Peter Steen Mikkelsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1387–1403, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1387-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1387-2016, 2016
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Fine-resolution spatio-temporal precipitation data are important as input to urban hydrological models to assess performance issues under all possible conditions. In the present study synthetic data at very fine spatial and temporal resolution are generated using a stochastic model. Data are generated for both present and future climate conditions. The results show that it is possible to generate spatially distributed data at resolutions relevant for urban hydrology.
Matthew J. Carmichael, Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Huber, Malte Heinemann, Jeffrey Kiehl, Allegra LeGrande, Claire A. Loptson, Chris D. Roberts, Navjit Sagoo, Christine Shields, Paul J. Valdes, Arne Winguth, Cornelia Winguth, and Richard D. Pancost
Clim. Past, 12, 455–481, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-455-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-455-2016, 2016
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In this paper, we assess how well model-simulated precipitation rates compare to those indicated by geological data for the early Eocene, a warm interval 56–49 million years ago. Our results show that a number of models struggle to produce sufficient precipitation at high latitudes, which likely relates to cool simulated temperatures in these regions. However, calculating precipitation rates from plant fossils is highly uncertain, and further data are now required.
Konstantinos Markakis, Myrto Valari, Magnuz Engardt, Gwendoline Lacressonniere, Robert Vautard, and Camilla Andersson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 1877–1894, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1877-2016, 2016
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The overall climate benefit at both cities and pollutants is −2 to −10 % depending on metric. Over the city of Paris local mitigation of NOx emissions increases future ozone due to titration inhibition. Climate is the most influential factor for maximum ozone in Paris, which is particularly interesting from a health impact perspective. Over urban areas with major regional contribution (e.g. Stockholm) the bias due to coarse emission inventory may lead to policy misclassification.
V. Fernández-Quiruelas, J. Fernández, A. S. Cofiño, C. Blanco, M. García-Díez, M. Magariño, L. Fita, and J. M. Gutiérrez
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-6551-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-6551-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
A. I. Stegehuis, R. Vautard, P. Ciais, A. J. Teuling, D. G. Miralles, and M. Wild
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2285–2298, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2285-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2285-2015, 2015
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Many climate models have difficulties in properly reproducing climate extremes such as heat wave conditions. We use a regional climate model with different atmospheric physics schemes to simulate the heat wave events of 2003 in western Europe and 2010 in Russia. The five best-performing and diverse physics scheme combinations may be used in the future to perform heat wave analysis and to investigate the impact of climate change in summer in Europe.
K. D. Williams, C. M. Harris, A. Bodas-Salcedo, J. Camp, R. E. Comer, D. Copsey, D. Fereday, T. Graham, R. Hill, T. Hinton, P. Hyder, S. Ineson, G. Masato, S. F. Milton, M. J. Roberts, D. P. Rowell, C. Sanchez, A. Shelly, B. Sinha, D. N. Walters, A. West, T. Woollings, and P. K. Xavier
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1509–1524, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1509-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1509-2015, 2015
E. Katragkou, M. García-Díez, R. Vautard, S. Sobolowski, P. Zanis, G. Alexandri, R. M. Cardoso, A. Colette, J. Fernandez, A. Gobiet, K. Goergen, T. Karacostas, S. Knist, S. Mayer, P. M. M. Soares, I. Pytharoulis, I. Tegoulias, A. Tsikerdekis, and D. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 603–618, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-603-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-603-2015, 2015
M. A. D. Larsen, J. C. Refsgaard, M. Drews, M. B. Butts, K. H. Jensen, J. H. Christensen, and O. B. Christensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4733–4749, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4733-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4733-2014, 2014
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The paper presents results from a novel dynamical coupling between a hydrology model and a regional climate model developed to include a wider range of processes, land-surface/atmosphere interaction and finer spatio-temporal scales. The coupled performance was largely dependent on the data exchange frequency between the two model components, and longer-term precipitation was somewhat improved by the coupled system whereas the short-term dynamics for a range of variables was less accurate.
M. S. Mizielinski, M. J. Roberts, P. L. Vidale, R. Schiemann, M.-E. Demory, J. Strachan, T. Edwards, A. Stephens, B. N. Lawrence, M. Pritchard, P. Chiu, A. Iwi, J. Churchill, C. del Cano Novales, J. Kettleborough, W. Roseblade, P. Selwood, M. Foster, M. Glover, and A. Malcolm
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1629–1640, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1629-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1629-2014, 2014
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014
K. Markakis, M. Valari, A. Colette, O. Sanchez, O. Perrussel, C. Honore, R. Vautard, Z. Klimont, and S. Rao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7323–7340, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7323-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7323-2014, 2014
S. Kotlarski, K. Keuler, O. B. Christensen, A. Colette, M. Déqué, A. Gobiet, K. Goergen, D. Jacob, D. Lüthi, E. van Meijgaard, G. Nikulin, C. Schär, C. Teichmann, R. Vautard, K. Warrach-Sagi, and V. Wulfmeyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1297–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014, 2014
L. Menut, R. Vautard, A. Colette, D. Khvorostyanov, A. Potier, L. Hamaoui-Laguel, N. Viovy, and M. Thibaudon
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-10891-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-10891-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
P. Yiou, M. Boichu, R. Vautard, M. Vrac, S. Jourdain, E. Garnier, F. Fluteau, and L. Menut
Clim. Past, 10, 797–809, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-797-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-797-2014, 2014
D. N. Walters, K. D. Williams, I. A. Boutle, A. C. Bushell, J. M. Edwards, P. R. Field, A. P. Lock, C. J. Morcrette, R. A. Stratton, J. M. Wilkinson, M. R. Willett, N. Bellouin, A. Bodas-Salcedo, M. E. Brooks, D. Copsey, P. D. Earnshaw, S. C. Hardiman, C. M. Harris, R. C. Levine, C. MacLachlan, J. C. Manners, G. M. Martin, S. F. Milton, M. D. Palmer, M. J. Roberts, J. M. Rodríguez, W. J. Tennant, and P. L. Vidale
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 361–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-361-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-361-2014, 2014
M. A. Sunyer, H. J. D. Sørup, O. B. Christensen, H. Madsen, D. Rosbjerg, P. S. Mikkelsen, and K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4323–4337, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4323-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4323-2013, 2013
A. Casanueva, S. Herrera, J. Fernández, M. D. Frías, and J. M. Gutiérrez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2089–2099, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2089-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2089-2013, 2013
A. Colette, B. Bessagnet, R. Vautard, S. Szopa, S. Rao, S. Schucht, Z. Klimont, L. Menut, G. Clain, F. Meleux, G. Curci, and L. Rouïl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7451–7471, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7451-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7451-2013, 2013
E. Solazzo, R. Bianconi, G. Pirovano, M. D. Moran, R. Vautard, C. Hogrefe, K. W. Appel, V. Matthias, P. Grossi, B. Bessagnet, J. Brandt, C. Chemel, J. H. Christensen, R. Forkel, X. V. Francis, A. B. Hansen, S. McKeen, U. Nopmongcol, M. Prank, K. N. Sartelet, A. Segers, J. D. Silver, G. Yarwood, J. Werhahn, J. Zhang, S. T. Rao, and S. Galmarini
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 791–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-791-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-791-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Climate and Earth system modeling
The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7
Robust handling of extremes in quantile mapping – “Murder your darlings”
A protocol for model intercomparison of impacts of marine cloud brightening climate intervention
An extensible perturbed parameter ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model version 6
Coupling the regional climate model ICON-CLM v2.6.6 to the Earth system model GCOAST-AHOI v2.0 using OASIS3-MCT v4.0
A fully coupled solid-particle microphysics scheme for stratospheric aerosol injections within the aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv2
An improved representation of aerosol in the ECMWF IFS-COMPO 49R1 through the integration of EQSAM4Climv12 – a first attempt at simulating aerosol acidity
At-scale Model Output Statistics in mountain environments (AtsMOS v1.0)
Impact of ocean vertical-mixing parameterization on Arctic sea ice and upper-ocean properties using the NEMO-SI3 model
Bridging the gap: a new module for human water use in the Community Earth System Model version 2.2.1
A new lightning scheme in the Canadian Atmospheric Model (CanAM5.1): implementation, evaluation, and projections of lightning and fire in future climates
Methane dynamics in the Baltic Sea: investigating concentration, flux, and isotopic composition patterns using the coupled physical–biogeochemical model BALTSEM-CH4 v1.0
Split-explicit external mode solver in the finite volume sea ice–ocean model FESOM2
Applying double cropping and interactive irrigation in the North China Plain using WRF4.5
The sea ice component of GC5: coupling SI3 to HadGEM3 using conductive fluxes
CICE on a C-grid: new momentum, stress, and transport schemes for CICEv6.5
HyPhAICC v1.0: a hybrid physics–AI approach for probability fields advection shown through an application to cloud cover nowcasting
CICERO Simple Climate Model (CICERO-SCM v1.1.1) – an improved simple climate model with a parameter calibration tool
Development of a plant carbon–nitrogen interface coupling framework in a coupled biophysical-ecosystem–biogeochemical model (SSiB5/TRIFFID/DayCent-SOM v1.0)
Dynamical Madden–Julian Oscillation forecasts using an ensemble subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast system of the IAP-CAS model
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Updating the radiation infrastructure in MESSy (based on MESSy version 2.55)
An urban module coupled with the Variable Infiltration Capacity model to improve hydrothermal simulations in urban systems
Bayesian hierarchical model for bias-correcting climate models
Evaluation of the coupling of EMACv2.55 to the land surface and vegetation model JSBACHv4
Reduced floating-point precision in regional climate simulations: an ensemble-based statistical verification
TorchClim v1.0: a deep-learning plugin for climate model physics
Linking global terrestrial and ocean biogeochemistry with process-based, coupled freshwater algae–nutrient–solid dynamics in LM3-FANSY v1.0
Validating a microphysical prognostic stratospheric aerosol implementation in E3SMv2 using observations after the Mount Pinatubo eruption
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Hector V3.2.0: functionality and performance of a reduced-complexity climate model
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Virtual Integration of Satellite and In-situ Observation Networks (VISION) v1.0: In-Situ Observations Simulator
Multivariate adjustment of drizzle bias using machine learning in European climate projections
Development and evaluation of the interactive Model for Air Pollution and Land Ecosystems (iMAPLE) version 1.0
A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs)
Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances
Software sustainability of global impact models
Short-term effects of hurricanes on nitrate-nitrogen runoff loading: a case study of Hurricane Ida using E3SM land model (v2.1)
CARIB12: A Regional Community Earth System Model / Modular Ocean Model 6 Configuration of the Caribbean Sea
Parallel SnowModel (v1.0): a parallel implementation of a distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel)
GOSI9: UK Global Ocean and Sea Ice configurations
LB-SCAM: a learning-based method for efficient large-scale sensitivity analysis and tuning of the Single Column Atmosphere Model (SCAM)
Quantifying the impact of SST feedback frequency on Madden–Julian oscillation simulations
Systematic and objective evaluation of Earth system models: PCMDI Metrics Package (PMP) version 3
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
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We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Peter Berg, Thomas Bosshard, Denica Bozhinova, Lars Bärring, Joakim Löw, Carolina Nilsson, Gustav Strandberg, Johan Södling, Johan Thuresson, Renate Wilcke, and Wei Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8173–8179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8173-2024, 2024
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When bias adjusting climate model data using quantile mapping, one needs to prescribe what to do at the tails of the distribution, where a larger data range is likely encountered outside of the calibration period. The end result is highly dependent on the method used. We show that, to avoid discontinuities in the time series, one needs to exclude data in the calibration range to also activate the extrapolation functionality in that time period.
Philip J. Rasch, Haruki Hirasawa, Mingxuan Wu, Sarah J. Doherty, Robert Wood, Hailong Wang, Andy Jones, James Haywood, and Hansi Singh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7963–7994, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7963-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7963-2024, 2024
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We introduce a protocol to compare computer climate simulations to better understand a proposed strategy intended to counter warming and climate impacts from greenhouse gas increases. This slightly changes clouds in six ocean regions to reflect more sunlight and cool the Earth. Example changes in clouds and climate are shown for three climate models. Cloud changes differ between the models, but precipitation and surface temperature changes are similar when their cooling effects are made similar.
Trude Eidhammer, Andrew Gettelman, Katherine Thayer-Calder, Duncan Watson-Parris, Gregory Elsaesser, Hugh Morrison, Marcus van Lier-Walqui, Ci Song, and Daniel McCoy
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7835–7853, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7835-2024, 2024
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We describe a dataset where 45 parameters related to cloud processes in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) are perturbed. Three sets of perturbed parameter ensembles (263 members) were created: current climate, preindustrial aerosol loading and future climate with sea surface temperature increased by 4 K.
Ha Thi Minh Ho-Hagemann, Vera Maurer, Stefan Poll, and Irina Fast
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7815–7834, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7815-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7815-2024, 2024
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The regional Earth system model GCOAST-AHOI v2.0 that includes the regional climate model ICON-CLM coupled to the ocean model NEMO and the hydrological discharge model HD via the OASIS3-MCT coupler can be a useful tool for conducting long-term regional climate simulations over the EURO-CORDEX domain. The new OASIS3-MCT coupling interface implemented in ICON-CLM makes it more flexible for coupling to an external ocean model and an external hydrological discharge model.
Sandro Vattioni, Rahel Weber, Aryeh Feinberg, Andrea Stenke, John A. Dykema, Beiping Luo, Georgios A. Kelesidis, Christian A. Bruun, Timofei Sukhodolov, Frank N. Keutsch, Thomas Peter, and Gabriel Chiodo
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7767–7793, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7767-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7767-2024, 2024
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We quantified impacts and efficiency of stratospheric solar climate intervention via solid particle injection. Microphysical interactions of solid particles with the sulfur cycle were interactively coupled to the heterogeneous chemistry scheme and the radiative transfer code of an aerosol–chemistry–climate model. Compared to injection of SO2 we only find a stronger cooling efficiency for solid particles when normalizing to the aerosol load but not when normalizing to the injection rate.
Samuel Rémy, Swen Metzger, Vincent Huijnen, Jason E. Williams, and Johannes Flemming
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7539–7567, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7539-2024, 2024
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In this paper we describe the development of the future operational cycle 49R1 of the IFS-COMPO system, used for operational forecasts of atmospheric composition in the CAMS project, and focus on the implementation of the thermodynamical model EQSAM4Clim version 12. The implementation of EQSAM4Clim significantly improves the simulated secondary inorganic aerosol surface concentration. The new aerosol and precipitation acidity diagnostics showed good agreement against observational datasets.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Tom Matthews, L. Baker Perry, Nirakar Thapa, and Rob Wilby
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7629–7643, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7629-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7629-2024, 2024
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This paper introduces the AtsMOS workflow, a new tool for improving weather forecasts in mountainous areas. By combining advanced statistical techniques with local weather data, AtsMOS can provide more accurate predictions of weather conditions. Using data from Mount Everest as an example, AtsMOS has shown promise in better forecasting hazardous weather conditions, making it a valuable tool for communities in mountainous regions and beyond.
Sofia Allende, Anne Marie Treguier, Camille Lique, Clément de Boyer Montégut, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, and Antoine Barthélemy
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7445–7466, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7445-2024, 2024
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We study the parameters of the turbulent-kinetic-energy mixed-layer-penetration scheme in the NEMO model with regard to sea-ice-covered regions of the Arctic Ocean. This evaluation reveals the impact of these parameters on mixed-layer depth, sea surface temperature and salinity, and ocean stratification. Our findings demonstrate significant impacts on sea ice thickness and sea ice concentration, emphasizing the need for accurately representing ocean mixing to understand Arctic climate dynamics.
Sabin I. Taranu, David M. Lawrence, Yoshihide Wada, Ting Tang, Erik Kluzek, Sam Rabin, Yi Yao, Steven J. De Hertog, Inne Vanderkelen, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7365–7399, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7365-2024, 2024
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In this study, we improved a climate model by adding the representation of water use sectors such as domestic, industry, and agriculture. This new feature helps us understand how water is used and supplied in various areas. We tested our model from 1971 to 2010 and found that it accurately identifies areas with water scarcity. By modelling the competition between sectors when water availability is limited, the model helps estimate the intensity and extent of individual sectors' water shortages.
Cynthia Whaley, Montana Etten-Bohm, Courtney Schumacher, Ayodeji Akingunola, Vivek Arora, Jason Cole, Michael Lazare, David Plummer, Knut von Salzen, and Barbara Winter
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7141–7155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7141-2024, 2024
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This paper describes how lightning was added as a process in the Canadian Earth System Model in order to interactively respond to climate changes. As lightning is an important cause of global wildfires, this new model development allows for more realistic projections of how wildfires may change in the future, responding to a changing climate.
Erik Gustafsson, Bo G. Gustafsson, Martijn Hermans, Christoph Humborg, and Christian Stranne
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7157–7179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7157-2024, 2024
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Methane (CH4) cycling in the Baltic Proper is studied through model simulations, enabling a first estimate of key CH4 fluxes. A preliminary budget identifies benthic CH4 release as the dominant source and two main sinks: CH4 oxidation in the water (92 % of sinks) and outgassing to the atmosphere (8 % of sinks). This study addresses CH4 emissions from coastal seas and is a first step toward understanding the relative importance of open-water outgassing compared with local coastal hotspots.
Tridib Banerjee, Patrick Scholz, Sergey Danilov, Knut Klingbeil, and Dmitry Sidorenko
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7051–7065, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7051-2024, 2024
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In this paper we propose a new alternative to one of the functionalities of the sea ice model FESOM2. The alternative we propose allows the model to capture and simulate fast changes in quantities like sea surface elevation more accurately. We also demonstrate that the new alternative is faster and more adept at taking advantages of highly parallelized computing infrastructure. We therefore show that this new alternative is a great addition to the sea ice model FESOM2.
Yuwen Fan, Zhao Yang, Min-Hui Lo, Jina Hur, and Eun-Soon Im
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6929–6947, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6929-2024, 2024
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Irrigated agriculture in the North China Plain (NCP) has a significant impact on the local climate. To better understand this impact, we developed a specialized model specifically for the NCP region. This model allows us to simulate the double-cropping vegetation and the dynamic irrigation practices that are commonly employed in the NCP. This model shows improved performance in capturing the general crop growth, such as crop stages, biomass, crop yield, and vegetation greenness.
Ed Blockley, Emma Fiedler, Jeff Ridley, Luke Roberts, Alex West, Dan Copsey, Daniel Feltham, Tim Graham, David Livings, Clement Rousset, David Schroeder, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6799–6817, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6799-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6799-2024, 2024
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This paper documents the sea ice model component of the latest Met Office coupled model configuration, which will be used as the physical basis for UK contributions to CMIP7. Documentation of science options used in the configuration are given along with a brief model evaluation. This is the first UK configuration to use NEMO’s new SI3 sea ice model. We provide details on how SI3 was adapted to work with Met Office coupling methodology and documentation of coupling processes in the model.
Jean-François Lemieux, William H. Lipscomb, Anthony Craig, David A. Bailey, Elizabeth C. Hunke, Philippe Blain, Till A. S. Rasmussen, Mats Bentsen, Frédéric Dupont, David Hebert, and Richard Allard
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6703–6724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6703-2024, 2024
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We present the latest version of the CICE model. It solves equations that describe the dynamics and the growth and melt of sea ice. To do so, the domain is divided into grid cells and variables are positioned at specific locations in the cells. A new implementation (C-grid) is presented, with the velocity located on cell edges. Compared to the previous B-grid, the C-grid allows for a natural coupling with some oceanic and atmospheric models. It also allows for ice transport in narrow channels.
Rachid El Montassir, Olivier Pannekoucke, and Corentin Lapeyre
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6657–6681, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6657-2024, 2024
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This study introduces a novel approach that combines physics and artificial intelligence (AI) for improved cloud cover forecasting. This approach outperforms traditional deep learning (DL) methods in producing realistic and physically consistent results while requiring less training data. This architecture provides a promising solution to overcome the limitations of classical AI methods and contributes to open up new possibilities for combining physical knowledge with deep learning models.
Marit Sandstad, Borgar Aamaas, Ane Nordlie Johansen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Glen Philip Peters, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Benjamin Mark Sanderson, and Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6589–6625, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, 2024
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The CICERO-SCM has existed as a Fortran model since 1999 that calculates the radiative forcing and concentrations from emissions and is an upwelling diffusion energy balance model of the ocean that calculates temperature change. In this paper, we describe an updated version ported to Python and publicly available at https://github.com/ciceroOslo/ciceroscm (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10548720). This version contains functionality for parallel runs and automatic calibration.
Zheng Xiang, Yongkang Xue, Weidong Guo, Melannie D. Hartman, Ye Liu, and William J. Parton
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6437–6464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6437-2024, 2024
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A process-based plant carbon (C)–nitrogen (N) interface coupling framework has been developed which mainly focuses on plant resistance and N-limitation effects on photosynthesis, plant respiration, and plant phenology. A dynamic C / N ratio is introduced to represent plant resistance and self-adjustment. The framework has been implemented in a coupled biophysical-ecosystem–biogeochemical model, and testing results show a general improvement in simulating plant properties with this framework.
Yangke Liu, Qing Bao, Bian He, Xiaofei Wu, Jing Yang, Yimin Liu, Guoxiong Wu, Tao Zhu, Siyuan Zhou, Yao Tang, Ankang Qu, Yalan Fan, Anling Liu, Dandan Chen, Zhaoming Luo, Xing Hu, and Tongwen Wu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6249–6275, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6249-2024, 2024
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We give an overview of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics–Chinese Academy of Sciences subseasonal-to-seasonal ensemble forecasting system and Madden–Julian Oscillation forecast evaluation of the system. Compared to other S2S models, the IAP-CAS model has its benefits but also biases, i.e., underdispersive ensemble, overestimated amplitude, and faster propagation speed when forecasting MJO. We provide a reason for these biases and prospects for further improvement of this system in the future.
Laurent Brodeau, Pierre Rampal, Einar Ólason, and Véronique Dansereau
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6051–6082, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6051-2024, 2024
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A new brittle sea ice rheology, BBM, has been implemented into the sea ice component of NEMO. We describe how a new spatial discretization framework was introduced to achieve this. A set of idealized and realistic ocean and sea ice simulations of the Arctic have been performed using BBM and the standard viscous–plastic rheology of NEMO. When compared to satellite data, our simulations show that our implementation of BBM leads to a fairly good representation of sea ice deformations.
Joseph P. Hollowed, Christiane Jablonowski, Hunter Y. Brown, Benjamin R. Hillman, Diana L. Bull, and Joseph L. Hart
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5913–5938, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5913-2024, 2024
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Large volcanic eruptions deposit material in the upper atmosphere, which is capable of altering temperature and wind patterns of Earth's atmosphere for subsequent years. This research describes a new method of simulating these effects in an idealized, efficient atmospheric model. A volcanic eruption of sulfur dioxide is described with a simplified set of physical rules, which eventually cools the planetary surface. This model has been designed as a test bed for climate attribution studies.
Hong Li, Yi Yang, Jian Sun, Yuan Jiang, Ruhui Gan, and Qian Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5883–5896, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5883-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5883-2024, 2024
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Vertical atmospheric motions play a vital role in convective-scale precipitation forecasts by connecting atmospheric dynamics with cloud development. A three-dimensional variational vertical velocity assimilation scheme is developed within the high-resolution CMA-MESO model, utilizing the adiabatic Richardson equation as the observation operator. A 10 d continuous run and an individual case study demonstrate improved forecasts, confirming the scheme's effectiveness.
Matthias Nützel, Laura Stecher, Patrick Jöckel, Franziska Winterstein, Martin Dameris, Michael Ponater, Phoebe Graf, and Markus Kunze
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5821–5849, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5821-2024, 2024
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We extended the infrastructure of our modelling system to enable the use of an additional radiation scheme. After calibrating the model setups to the old and the new radiation scheme, we find that the simulation with the new scheme shows considerable improvements, e.g. concerning the cold-point temperature and stratospheric water vapour. Furthermore, perturbations of radiative fluxes associated with greenhouse gas changes, e.g. of methane, tend to be improved when the new scheme is employed.
Yibing Wang, Xianhong Xie, Bowen Zhu, Arken Tursun, Fuxiao Jiang, Yao Liu, Dawei Peng, and Buyun Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5803–5819, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5803-2024, 2024
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Urban expansion intensifies challenges like urban heat and urban dry islands. To address this, we developed an urban module, VIC-urban, in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Tested in Beijing, VIC-urban accurately simulated turbulent heat fluxes, runoff, and land surface temperature. We provide a reliable tool for large-scale simulations considering urban environment and a systematic urban modelling framework within VIC, offering crucial insights for urban planners and designers.
Jeremy Carter, Erick A. Chacón-Montalván, and Amber Leeson
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5733–5757, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5733-2024, 2024
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Climate models are essential tools in the study of climate change and its wide-ranging impacts on life on Earth. However, the output is often afflicted with some bias. In this paper, a novel model is developed to predict and correct bias in the output of climate models. The model captures uncertainty in the correction and explicitly models underlying spatial correlation between points. These features are of key importance for climate change impact assessments and resulting decision-making.
Anna Martin, Veronika Gayler, Benedikt Steil, Klaus Klingmüller, Patrick Jöckel, Holger Tost, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5705–5732, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5705-2024, 2024
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The study evaluates the land surface and vegetation model JSBACHv4 as a replacement for the simplified submodel SURFACE in EMAC. JSBACH mitigates earlier problems of soil dryness, which are critical for vegetation modelling. When analysed using different datasets, the coupled model shows strong correlations of key variables, such as land surface temperature, surface albedo and radiation flux. The versatility of the model increases significantly, while the overall performance does not degrade.
Hugo Banderier, Christian Zeman, David Leutwyler, Stefan Rüdisühli, and Christoph Schär
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5573–5586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5573-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5573-2024, 2024
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We investigate the effects of reduced-precision arithmetic in a state-of-the-art regional climate model by studying the results of 10-year-long simulations. After this time, the results of the reduced precision and the standard implementation are hardly different. This should encourage the use of reduced precision in climate models to exploit the speedup and memory savings it brings. The methodology used in this work can help researchers verify reduced-precision implementations of their model.
David Fuchs, Steven C. Sherwood, Abhnil Prasad, Kirill Trapeznikov, and Jim Gimlett
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5459–5475, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5459-2024, 2024
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Machine learning (ML) of unresolved processes offers many new possibilities for improving weather and climate models, but integrating ML into the models has been an engineering challenge, and there are performance issues. We present a new software plugin for this integration, TorchClim, that is scalable and flexible and thereby allows a new level of experimentation with the ML approach. We also provide guidance on ML training and demonstrate a skillful hybrid ML atmosphere model.
Minjin Lee, Charles A. Stock, John P. Dunne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5191–5224, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5191-2024, 2024
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Modeling global freshwater solid and nutrient loads, in both magnitude and form, is imperative for understanding emerging eutrophication problems. Such efforts, however, have been challenged by the difficulty of balancing details of freshwater biogeochemical processes with limited knowledge, input, and validation datasets. Here we develop a global freshwater model that resolves intertwined algae, solid, and nutrient dynamics and provide performance assessment against measurement-based estimates.
Hunter York Brown, Benjamin Wagman, Diana Bull, Kara Peterson, Benjamin Hillman, Xiaohong Liu, Ziming Ke, and Lin Lin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5087–5121, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5087-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5087-2024, 2024
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Explosive volcanic eruptions lead to long-lived, microscopic particles in the upper atmosphere which act to cool the Earth's surface by reflecting the Sun's light back to space. We include and test this process in a global climate model, E3SM. E3SM is tested against satellite and balloon observations of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, showing that with these particles in the model we reasonably recreate Pinatubo and its global effects. We also explore how particle size leads to these effects.
Deifilia Aurora To, Julian Quinting, Gholam Ali Hoshyaripour, Markus Götz, Achim Streit, and Charlotte Debus
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1714, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1714, 2024
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Pangu-Weather is a breakthrough machine learning model in medium-range weather forecasting that considers three-dimensional atmospheric information. We show that using a simpler 2D framework improves robustness, speeds up training, and reduces computational needs by 20–30%. We introduce a training procedure that varies the importance of atmospheric variables over time to speed up training convergence. Decreasing computational demand increases accessibility of training and working with the model.
Carl Svenhag, Moa K. Sporre, Tinja Olenius, Daniel Yazgi, Sara M. Blichner, Lars P. Nieradzik, and Pontus Roldin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4923–4942, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4923-2024, 2024
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Our research shows the importance of modeling new particle formation (NPF) and growth of particles in the atmosphere on a global scale, as they influence the outcomes of clouds and our climate. With the global model EC-Earth3 we show that using a new method for NPF modeling, which includes new detailed processes with NH3 and H2SO4, significantly impacts the number of particles in the air and clouds and changes the radiation balance of the same magnitude as anthropogenic greenhouse emissions.
Mengjie Han, Qing Zhao, Xili Wang, Ying-Ping Wang, Philippe Ciais, Haicheng Zhang, Daniel S. Goll, Lei Zhu, Zhe Zhao, Zhixuan Guo, Chen Wang, Wei Zhuang, Fengchang Wu, and Wei Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4871–4890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024, 2024
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The impact of biochar (BC) on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics is not represented in most land carbon models used for assessing land-based climate change mitigation. Our study develops a BC model that incorporates our current understanding of BC effects on SOC based on a soil carbon model (MIMICS). The BC model can reproduce the SOC changes after adding BC, providing a useful tool to couple dynamic land models to evaluate the effectiveness of BC application for CO2 removal from the atmosphere.
Kalyn Dorheim, Skylar Gering, Robert Gieseke, Corinne Hartin, Leeya Pressburger, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Steven J. Smith, Claudia Tebaldi, Dawn L. Woodard, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4855–4869, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024, 2024
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Hector is an easy-to-use, global climate–carbon cycle model. With its quick run time, Hector can provide climate information from a run in a fraction of a second. Hector models on a global and annual basis. Here, we present an updated version of the model, Hector V3. In this paper, we document Hector’s new features. Hector V3 is capable of reproducing historical observations, and its future temperature projections are consistent with those of more complex models.
Fangxuan Ren, Jintai Lin, Chenghao Xu, Jamiu A. Adeniran, Jingxu Wang, Randall V. Martin, Aaron van Donkelaar, Melanie S. Hammer, Larry W. Horowitz, Steven T. Turnock, Naga Oshima, Jie Zhang, Susanne Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Gary Strand, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, and Toshihiko Takemura
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4821–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, 2024
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We evaluate the performance of 14 CMIP6 ESMs in simulating total PM2.5 and its 5 components over China during 2000–2014. PM2.5 and its components are underestimated in almost all models, except that black carbon (BC) and sulfate are overestimated in two models, respectively. The underestimation is the largest for organic carbon (OC) and the smallest for BC. Models reproduce the observed spatial pattern for OC, sulfate, nitrate and ammonium well, yet the agreement is poorer for BC.
Yi Xi, Chunjing Qiu, Yuan Zhang, Dan Zhu, Shushi Peng, Gustaf Hugelius, Jinfeng Chang, Elodie Salmon, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4727–4754, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024, 2024
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The ORCHIDEE-MICT model can simulate the carbon cycle and hydrology at a sub-grid scale but energy budgets only at a grid scale. This paper assessed the implementation of a multi-tiling energy budget approach in ORCHIDEE-MICT and found warmer surface and soil temperatures, higher soil moisture, and more soil organic carbon across the Northern Hemisphere compared with the original version.
Maria Rosa Russo, Sadie L. Bartholomew, David Hassell, Alex M. Mason, Erica Neininger, A. James Perman, David A. J. Sproson, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Nathan Luke Abraham
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-73, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-73, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Observational data and modelling capabilities are expanding in recent years, but there are still barriers preventing these two data sources to be used in synergy. Proper comparison requires generating, storing and handling a large amount of data. This manuscript describes the first step in the development of a new set of software tools, the ‘VISION toolkit’, which can enable the easy and efficient integration of observational and model data required for model evaluation.
Georgia Lazoglou, Theo Economou, Christina Anagnostopoulou, George Zittis, Anna Tzyrkalli, Pantelis Georgiades, and Jos Lelieveld
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4689–4703, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4689-2024, 2024
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This study focuses on the important issue of the drizzle bias effect in regional climate models, described by an over-prediction of the number of rainy days while underestimating associated precipitation amounts. For this purpose, two distinct methodologies are applied and rigorously evaluated. These results are encouraging for using the multivariate machine learning method random forest to increase the accuracy of climate models concerning the projection of the number of wet days.
Xu Yue, Hao Zhou, Chenguang Tian, Yimian Ma, Yihan Hu, Cheng Gong, Hui Zheng, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4621–4642, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4621-2024, 2024
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We develop the interactive Model for Air Pollution and Land Ecosystems (iMAPLE). The model considers the full coupling between carbon and water cycles, dynamic fire emissions, wetland methane emissions, biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, and trait-based ozone vegetation damage. Evaluations show that iMAPLE is a useful tool for the study of the interactions among climate, chemistry, and ecosystems.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
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The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Seung H. Baek, Paul A. Ullrich, Bo Dong, and Jiwoo Lee
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1456, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1456, 2024
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We evaluate downscaled products by examining locally relevant covariances during convective and frontal precipitation events. Common statistical downscaling techniques preserve expected covariances during convective precipitation. However, they dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation captured in global climate models and dynamical downscaling. This suggests statistical downscaling may not fully resolve non-stationary hydrologic processes as compared to dynamical downscaling.
Emmanuel Nyenah, Petra Döll, Daniel S. Katz, and Robert Reinecke
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-97, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-97, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Research software is crucial for scientific progress but is often developed by scientists with limited training, time, and funding, leading to software that is hard to understand, (re)use, modify, and maintain. Our study across 10 research sectors highlights strengths in version control, open-source licensing, and documentation while emphasizing the need for containerization and code quality. Recommendations include workshops, code quality metrics, funding, and adherence to FAIR standards.
Yilin Fang, Hoang Viet Tran, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-70, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-70, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Hurricanes may worsen the water quality in the lower Mississippi River Basin (LMRB) by increasing nutrient runoff. We found that runoff parameterizations greatly affect nitrate-nitrogen runoff simulated using an Earth system land model. Our simulations predicted increased nitrogen runoff in LMRB during Hurricane Ida in 2021, but less pronounced than the observations, indicating areas for model improvement to better understand and manage nutrient runoff loss during hurricanes in the region.
Giovanni G. Seijo-Ellis, Donata Giglio, Gustavo M. Marques, and Frank O. Bryan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1378, 2024
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A CESM/MOM6 regional configuration of the Caribbean Sea was developed as a response to the rising need of high-resolution models for climate impact studies. The configuration is validated for the period of 2000–2020 and improves significant errors in a low resolution model. Oceanic properties are well represented. Patterns of freshwater associated with the Amazon river are well captured and the mean flows across the multiple passages in the Caribbean Sea agree with observations.
Ross Mower, Ethan D. Gutmann, Glen E. Liston, Jessica Lundquist, and Soren Rasmussen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4135–4154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4135-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4135-2024, 2024
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Higher-resolution model simulations are better at capturing winter snowpack changes across space and time. However, increasing resolution also increases the computational requirements. This work provides an overview of changes made to a distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) to allow it to leverage high-performance computing resources. Continental simulations that were previously estimated to take 120 d can now be performed in 5 h.
Catherine Guiavarc'h, Dave Storkey, Adam T. Blaker, Ed Blockley, Alex Megann, Helene T. Hewitt, Michael J. Bell, Daley Calvert, Dan Copsey, Bablu Sinha, Sophia Moreton, Pierre Mathiot, and Bo An
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-805, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-805, 2024
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GOSI9 is the new UK’s hierarchy of global ocean and sea ice models. Developed as part of a collaboration between several UK research institutes it will be used for various applications such as weather forecast and climate prediction. The models, based on NEMO, are available at three resolutions 1°, ¼° and 1/12°. GOSI9 improves upon previous version by reducing global temperature and salinity biases and enhancing the representation of the Arctic sea ice and of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.
Jiaxu Guo, Juepeng Zheng, Yidan Xu, Haohuan Fu, Wei Xue, Lanning Wang, Lin Gan, Ping Gao, Wubing Wan, Xianwei Wu, Zhitao Zhang, Liang Hu, Gaochao Xu, and Xilong Che
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3975–3992, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3975-2024, 2024
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To enhance the efficiency of experiments using SCAM, we train a learning-based surrogate model to facilitate large-scale sensitivity analysis and tuning of combinations of multiple parameters. Employing a hybrid method, we investigate the joint sensitivity of multi-parameter combinations across typical cases, identifying the most sensitive three-parameter combination out of 11. Subsequently, we conduct a tuning process aimed at reducing output errors in these cases.
Yung-Yao Lan, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, and Wan-Ling Tseng
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3897–3918, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3897-2024, 2024
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This study uses the CAM5–SIT coupled model to investigate the effects of SST feedback frequency on the MJO simulations with intervals at 30 min, 1, 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, and 30 d. The simulations become increasingly unrealistic as the frequency of the SST feedback decreases. Our results suggest that more spontaneous air--sea interaction (e.g., ocean response within 3 d in this study) with high vertical resolution in the ocean model is key to the realistic simulation of the MJO.
Jiwoo Lee, Peter J. Gleckler, Min-Seop Ahn, Ana Ordonez, Paul A. Ullrich, Kenneth R. Sperber, Karl E. Taylor, Yann Y. Planton, Eric Guilyardi, Paul Durack, Celine Bonfils, Mark D. Zelinka, Li-Wei Chao, Bo Dong, Charles Doutriaux, Chengzhu Zhang, Tom Vo, Jason Boutte, Michael F. Wehner, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Daehyun Kim, Zeyu Xue, Andrew T. Wittenberg, and John Krasting
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3919–3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3919-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3919-2024, 2024
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We introduce an open-source software, the PCMDI Metrics Package (PMP), developed for a comprehensive comparison of Earth system models (ESMs) with real-world observations. Using diverse metrics evaluating climatology, variability, and extremes simulated in thousands of simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), PMP aids in benchmarking model improvements across generations. PMP also enables efficient tracking of performance evolutions during ESM developments.
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Short summary
Now that global climate models (GCMs) can run at similar resolutions to regional climate models (RCMs), one may wonder whether GCMs and RCMs provide similar regional climate information. We perform an evaluation for daily precipitation distribution in PRIMAVERA GCMs (25–50 km resolution) and CORDEX RCMs (12–50 km resolution) over Europe. We show that PRIMAVERA and CORDEX simulate similar distributions. Considering both datasets at such a resolution results in large benefits for impact studies.
Now that global climate models (GCMs) can run at similar resolutions to regional climate models...
Special issue