Articles | Volume 12, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2255-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2255-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model experiment description paper
| 
12 Jun 2019
Model experiment description paper |
| 12 Jun 2019
| 12 Jun 2019
Assessment of sub-shelf melting parameterisations using the ocean–ice-sheet coupled model NEMO(v3.6)–Elmer/Ice(v8.3)
Lionel Favier
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Nicolas C. Jourdain
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Adrian Jenkins
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, UK
Nacho Merino
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Gaël Durand
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Olivier Gagliardini
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Fabien Gillet-Chaulet
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Pierre Mathiot
Met Office, Exeter, UK
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Cyrille Mosbeux, Peter Råback, Adrien Gilbert, Julien Brondex, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Mondher Chekki, Olivier Gagliardini, and Gaël Durand
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 8269–8288, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8269-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8269-2026, 2026
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Transport processes like rocks carried by ice flow and damage evolution – a proxy for crevasses – are key in ice sheet modeling and should occur without diffusion. Yet, standard numerical methods often blur these features. We explore a particle-based Semi-Lagrangian approach, comparing it to a Discontinuous Galerkin method, and show it can accurately simulate such transport when run at high enough resolution.
Helen Ockenden, Clara Burgard, Pierre Mathiot, Christoph Kittel, Achille Gellens, Cécile Agosta, and Nicolas C. Jourdain
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 7979–8002, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7979-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7979-2026, 2026
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Since numerical computing is expensive, climate models must decide between having a high spatial resolution or running for long time periods. Here, we develop a simple neural network to emulate small-scale processes occurring beneath Antarctic ice shelves, which allows sub-shelf melt and ice–ocean interactions to be included in global ocean models which can run for multiple centuries. This neural network will help us to understand how ocean circulation may change in the future.
Adrien Gilbert, Fabrizio Troilo, Olivier Gagliardini, Christian Vincent, Paolo Perret, Luca Mondardini, Luc Piard, Olivier Laarman, and Emmanuel Le Meur
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4058, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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This study reports on long-term temperature changes observed on the Whymper hanging glacier in Italy from 1997 to 2021, which are interpreted using a numerical modeling approach. Our results show that recent surface warming, driven by increased melting, has raised the glacier's basal temperature significantly, which could reach its melting point by 2050. However, this warming is partially offset by cooling from the mountain's cold north face, which may keep the glacier frozen and stable.
Christophe Ogier, Mauro A. Werder, Olivier Gagliardini, Ilaria Santin, Raphael Moser, Romain Hugonnet, Antoine Blanc, and Daniel Farinotti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3901–3917, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3901-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3901-2026, 2026
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In June 2024, a destructive flood impacted the village of La Bérarde in the French Alps. Rain, snowmelt, and the drainage of a surface lake on a glacier cannot fully explain the flood magnitude. We used glacier topography to estimate how much water could also have been stored beneath the glacier before the event. Our results show that large volumes of hidden water may have existed and could have amplified the flood, highlighting an overlooked hazard in debris-covered mountain glaciers.
Anna Olivé Abelló, Pierre Mathiot, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Yavor Kostov, and Paul R. Holland
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3422, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3422, 2026
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Antarctic icebergs release large amounts of freshwater, but models often add it entirely at the ocean surface. Using simulations with drifting icebergs, we assessed whether releasing meltwater at depth alters the Southern Ocean's response. Most meltwater remained in the surface mixed layer, and deeper release caused only weak, local changes in the ocean, sea ice and ice shelf melting. Hence, surface release remains a reasonable approach for large-scale studies, though depth matters regionally.
Paul Holland, Adrian Jenkins, David Bett, and Suzanne Bevan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2835, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2835, 2026
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Ice loss from the Amundsen Sea sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise. In this study we use ocean simulations to understand the ice melting in this sector. The strongest melting is focussed on deep ice where the glaciers flow into the ocean. Secondary areas of melting occur beneath meltwater currents. The simulations are used to test simple mathematical representations of melting that could be built into an ice sheet model.
James R. Jordan, Frank Pattyn, Daniel Abele, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jowan M. Barnes, Tijn Berends, Jorge A. Bernales, Javier Blasco, Gong Cheng, Youngmin Choi, Stephen L. Cornford, Cruz Garcia-Molina, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Angelika Humbert, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Marisa Montoya, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Mathieu Morlighem, Tyler Pelle, Alexander Robinson, Martin Rückamp, Hélène Seroussi, Yanmei Tian, Luisa Wagner, Roderick S. W. van de Wal, Liyun Zhao, and Thomas Zwinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1962, 2026
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Ice calving is a recent inclusion in ice sheet models and there has not been a systematic test of how well it has been implemented. We show that models can accurately represent a given rate of ice calving, properties at the ice front evolve smoothly during calving, and that there are no consistent differences in ice behaviour between various approaches to representing calving in numerical ice models. This gives us confidence in their ability for use in sea level rise prediction simulations.
Claire K. Yung, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alistair Adcroft, Christopher Y. S. Bull, Jan De Rydt, Michael S. Dinniman, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Daniel Goldberg, David E. Gwyther, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, James R. Jordan, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Kazuya Kusahara, Gustavo Marques, Pierre Mathiot, Dimitris Menemenlis, Adele K. Morrison, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Olga Sergienko, Robin S. Smith, Alon Stern, Ralph Timmermann, and Qin Zhou
The Cryosphere, 20, 2053–2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2053-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2053-2026, 2026
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The second Ice Shelf-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, ISOMIP+, compares 12 ice shelf-ocean models with a common, idealised, static configuration, aiming to assess inter-model variability. Models show similar basal melt rate patterns, ocean profiles and circulation but differ in ice-ocean boundary layer properties. Ice-ocean boundary layer representation is a key area for future work, as are realistic-domain ice sheet-ocean model intercomparisons.
Dorothée Vallot, Nicolas C. Jourdain, and Pierre Mathiot
The Cryosphere, 20, 1997–2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1997-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1997-2026, 2026
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Some recent studies show that the topography at the base of an ice shelf has consequences for its interaction with the ocean. To describe friction velocity in the melt parameterisation, we use a drag coefficient dependent on the distance of the first wet cell to the ice and the basal topography rather than a fixed-tuned parameter. We find that it is less dependent on the choice of vertical resolution and, while providing similar total melt, it gives more weight to highly crevassed areas.
Pierre Mathiot, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Benoit Urruty, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Olivier Gagliardini, and Gaël Durand
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-927, 2026
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How the Antarctic ice sheet responds to rapid ocean warming remains uncertain. To explore this, we used a coupled ocean–ice sheet model. We compared simulations under present-day conditions with simulations under strong future warming for 50 years, then returned to today’s climate. The ocean warmed quickly but recovered within decades. In contrast, several ice streams continued to retreat for centuries. This shows that even brief warming could cause lasting ice loss and sea-level rise.
Julien Brondex, Olivier Gagliardini, Adrien Gilbert, and Emmanuel Thibert
The Cryosphere, 20, 1655–1677, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1655-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1655-2026, 2026
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We investigate crevasse initiation by analyzing the artificial drainage of a water-filled cavity at Tête Rousse Glacier (Mont Blanc, France). Using a numerical model, we compute stress fields in response to water level variations in the cavity and compare them to observed crevasse patterns. Results show that a non-linear viscous rheology and a maximum principal stress criterion (with a stress threshold of 100–130 kPa) best predict crevasse occurrence.
Simon Filhol, Clément Misset, Noélie Bontemps, Diego Cusicanqui, Emmanuel Paquet, Marie Dumont, Olivier Gagliardini, Pascal Lacroix, Simon Gascoin, Guillaume Thirel, Julien Brondex, Pascal Hagenmuller, Eric Larose, Philipp Schoeneich, Denis Roy, Emmanuel Thibert, Nicolas Eckert, Félix de Montety, Robin Mainieri, Alexandre Hauet, Frédéric Gottardi, Johan Berthet, Alexandre Baratier, Frédéric Liébault, Małgorzata Chmiel, Guillaume Piton, Guillaume Chambon, Guillaume James, Philippe Frey, Philip Deline, Laurent Astrade, Christian Vincent, Dominique Laigle, Alain Recking, Fatima Karbou, Adrien Mauss, Mylène Bonnefoy-Demongeot, Firmin Fontaine, Mickael Langlais, Etienne Berthier, and Antoine Blanc
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-971, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-971, 2026
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On June 21 2024, the village of La Bérarde, in the French Alps, was devastated by a flood destroying centuries old buildings. This study is an interdisciplinary work to decipher the causes and chronology of the event. The flood started with decadal rain falling on a thick snowpack. A lake observed on top of a glacier few days prior, had drained post event. With climate change, should we expect more similar compound events for alpine communities?
Benjamin Heurgue, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Fredrik Boberg, Gaël Durand, Vincent Favier, Xavier Fettweis, Quentin Glaude, Heiko Goelzer, Nicolaj Hansen, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ruth Mottram, Martin Olesen, Willem Jan Van de Berg, Michiel R. Van den Broeke, and René R. Wijngaard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-624, 2026
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We studied how the Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance may change by 2100 using three high-resolution climate models forced by the same future climate scenario. While the models agree for present-day conditions, they project very different futures, especially over floating ice shelves. These differences mainly come from how melting, refreezing, and temperature are represented. Our results show that future sea level projections strongly depend on how well models simulate today’s climate.
Yavor Kostov, Paul R. Holland, Kelly A. Hogan, James A. Smith, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot, Anna Olivé Abelló, Andrew H. Fleming, and Andrew J. S. Meijers
The Cryosphere, 20, 135–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-135-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-135-2026, 2026
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Icebergs ground when they reach shallow topography such as Bear Ridge in the Amundsen Sea. Grounded icebergs can block the transport of sea-ice and create areas of higher and lower sea-ice concentration. We introduce a physically and observationally motivated representation of grounding in an ocean model. In addition, we improve the way simulated icebergs respond to winds, ocean currents, and density differences in sea water. We analyse the forces acting on freely floating and grounded icebergs.
Thomas Chauve, Florent Gimbert, Adrien Gilbert, Olivier Gagliardini, Luc Piard, Arnaud Reboud, Olivier Laarman, Paolo Perret, William Boffelli, Pietro Di Sopra, Luca Mondardini, and Fabrizio Troilo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5714, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5714, 2025
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A field campaign on the Planpincieux Glacier investigated how hidden heterogeneities inside the ice affect its deformation. A borehole logged with optical and acoustic tools and equipped with tilt sensors revealed that these heterogeneities cause strong deformation localization. Such weak zones significantly influence glacier motion, showing that internal structure is key to understanding how glaciers flow.
Heiko Goelzer, Constantijn J. Berends, Fredrik Boberg, Gael Durand, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Quentin Glaude, Philippe Huybrechts, Sébastien Le clec'h, Ruth Mottram, Brice Noël, Martin Olesen, Charlotte Rahlves, Jeremy Rohmer, Michiel van den Broeke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 6887–6906, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025, 2025
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We present an ensemble of ice sheet model projections for the Greenland ice sheet. The focus is on providing projections that improve our understanding of the range future sea-level rise and the inherent uncertainties over the next 100 to 300 years. Compared to earlier work we more fully account for some of the uncertainties in sea-level projections. We include a wider range of climate model output, more climate change scenarios and we extend projections schematically up to year 2300.
Jeremy Rohmer, Heiko Goelzer, Tamsin L. Edwards, Goneri Le Cozannet, and Gael Durand
The Cryosphere, 19, 6421–6444, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6421-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6421-2025, 2025
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Developing robust protocols to design multi-model ensembles is of primary importance for the uncertainty quantification of sea level projections. Here, we set up a series of computer experiments to reflect design decisions for the prediction of future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet in 2100. We show the importance of including the most extreme climate scenario and the implications of using a single type of numerical model for ice sheets or regional climate.
Gavin A. Schmidt, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Jonathan L. Bamber, Clara Burgard, Dustin Carroll, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Benjamin J. Davison, Matthew H. England, Paul R. Holland, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Qian Li, Juliana M. Marson, Pierre Mathiot, Clive R. McMahon, Twila A. Moon, Ruth Mottram, Sophie Nowicki, Anna Olivé Abelló, Andrew G. Pauling, Thomas Rackow, and Damien Ringeisen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8333–8361, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025, 2025
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The impact of increasing mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has not so far been included in historical climate model simulations. This paper describes the protocols and data available for modeling groups to add this anomalous freshwater to their ocean modules to better represent the impacts of these fluxes on ocean circulation, sea ice, salinity and sea level.
Shenjie Zhou, Pierre Dutrieux, Claudia F. Giulivi, Adrian Jenkins, Alessandro Silvano, Christopher Auckland, E. Povl Abrahamsen, Michael Meredith, Irena Vaňková, Keith Nicholls, Peter E. D. Davis, Svein Østerhus, Arnold L. Gordon, Christopher J. Zappa, Tiago S. Dotto, Ted Scambos, Kathryn L. Gunn, Stephen R. Rintoul, Shigeru Aoki, Craig Stevens, Chengyan Liu, Sukyoung Yun, Tae-Wan Kim, Won Sang Lee, Markus Janout, Tore Hattermann, Julius Lauber, Elin Darelius, Anna Wåhlin, Leo Middleton, Pasquale Castagno, Giorgio Budillon, Karen J. Heywood, Jennifer Graham, Stephen Dye, Daisuke Hirano, and Una Kim Miller
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 5693–5706, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5693-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5693-2025, 2025
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We created the first standardised dataset of in-situ ocean measurements time series from around Antarctica collected since 1970s. This includes temperature, salinity, pressure, and currents recorded by instruments deployed in icy, challenging conditions. Our analysis highlights the dominance of tidal currents and separates these from other patterns to study regional energy distribution. This unique dataset offers a foundation for future research on Antarctic ocean dynamics and ice interactions.
Johanna Beckmann, Ronja Reese, Felicity S. McCormack, Sue Cook, Lawrence Bird, Dawid Gwyther, Daniel Richards, Matthias Scheiter, Yu Wang, Hélène Seroussi, Ayako Abe‐Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez‐Solas, Xylar S. Asay‐Davis, Jean‐Baptiste Barre, Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge Bernales, Javier Blasco, Justine Caillet, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi, Julius Garbe, Fabien Gillet‐Chaulet, Rupert Gladstone, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Holly Kyeore Han, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ann Kristin Klose, Petra M. Langebroek, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel P. Lowry, Pierre Mathiot, Marisa Montoya, Mathieu Morlighem, Sophie Nowicki, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Tyler Pelle, Aurélien Quiquet, Alexander Robinson, Leopekka Saraste, Erika G. Simon, Sainan Sun, Jake P. Twarog, Luke D. Trusel, Benoit Urruty, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Chen Zhao, and Thomas Zwinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, 2025
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Antarctica holds enough ice to raise sea levels by many meters, but its future is uncertain. Warm ocean water melts ice shelves from below, letting inland ice flow faster into the sea. By 2300, Antarctica could add 0.6–4.4 m to sea levels. Our study identifies two key factors—how strongly shelves melt and how the ice responds. These explain much of the range, and refining them in models may improve future predictions.
Jonathan Wiskandt and Nicolas C. Jourdain
The Cryosphere, 19, 3253–3258, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3253-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3253-2025, 2025
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In ocean models, submarine melt of ice shelves is parameterized based on the heat budget at the ice–ocean interface. The heat budget includes the ocean heat transport, the heat conducted into the ice, and the heat available for melting. Here we compare three different approaches to estimating the heat conduction into the ice. We show that the most used approximation is not the most accurate one: it overestimates the melt by up to 25 % compared to the more accurate approximations.
Sebastian H. R. Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Adrian Jenkins, and Kaitlin A. Naughten
The Cryosphere, 19, 2527–2557, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2527-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2527-2025, 2025
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Glaciers in the Amundsen Sea region of Antarctica have been retreating and losing mass, but their future contribution to global sea level rise remains highly uncertain. We use an ice sheet model and uncertainty quantification methods to evaluate the probable range of mass loss from this region for two future climate scenarios. We find that the rate of ice loss until 2100 will likely remain similar to present-day observations, with little sensitivity to climate scenario over this short time frame.
Davor Dundovic, Joseph G. Wallwork, Stephan C. Kramer, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Regine Hock, and Matthew D. Piggott
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4023–4044, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4023-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4023-2025, 2025
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Accurate numerical studies of glaciers often require high-resolution simulations, which often prove too demanding even for modern computers. In this paper we develop a method that identifies whether different parts of a glacier require high or low resolution based on its physical features, such as its thickness and velocity. We show that by doing so we can achieve a more optimal simulation accuracy for the available computing resources compared to uniform-resolution simulations.
Nicolas C. Jourdain, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, and Gaël Durand
The Cryosphere, 19, 1641–1674, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025, 2025
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A mixed statistical–physical approach is used to reproduce the behaviour of a regional climate model. From that, we estimate the contribution of snowfall and melting at the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to changes in global mean sea level. We also investigate the impact of surface melting in a warmer climate on the stability of the Antarctic ice shelves that provide back stress on the ice flow to the ocean.
Justine Caillet, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Benoit Urruty, Clara Burgard, Charles Amory, Mondher Chekki, and Christoph Kittel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025, 2025
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Internal climate variability, resulting from processes intrinsic to the climate system, modulates the Antarctic response to climate change by delaying or offsetting its effects. Using climate and ice-sheet models, we highlight that irreducible internal climate variability significantly enlarges the likely range of Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise until 2100. Thus, we recommend considering internal climate variability as a source of uncertainty for future ice-sheet projections.
Juan-Pedro Roldán-Blasco, Adrien Gilbert, Luc Piard, Florent Gimbert, Christian Vincent, Olivier Gagliardini, Anuar Togaibekov, Andrea Walpersdorf, and Nathan Maier
The Cryosphere, 19, 267–282, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-267-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-267-2025, 2025
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The flow of glaciers and ice sheets results from ice deformation and basal sliding driven by gravitational forces. Quantifying the rate at which ice deforms under its own weight is critical for assessing glacier evolution. This study uses borehole instrumentation in an Alpine glacier to quantify ice deformation and constrain ice viscosity in a natural setting. Our results show that the viscosity of ice at 0 °C is largely influenced by interstitial liquid water, which enhances ice deformation.
Eliot Jager, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicolas Champollion, Romain Millan, Heiko Goelzer, and Jérémie Mouginot
The Cryosphere, 18, 5519–5550, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024, 2024
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Inspired by a previous intercomparison framework, our study better constrains uncertainties in glacier evolution using an innovative method to validate Bayesian calibration. Upernavik Isstrøm, one of Greenland's largest glaciers, has lost significant mass since 1985. By integrating observational data, climate models, human emissions, and internal model parameters, we project its evolution until 2100. We show that future human emissions are the main source of uncertainty in 2100, making up half.
Brad Reed, J. A. Mattias Green, Adrian Jenkins, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 18, 4567–4587, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024, 2024
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We use a numerical ice-flow model to simulate the response of a 1940s Pine Island Glacier to changes in melting beneath its ice shelf. A decadal period of warm forcing is sufficient to push the glacier into an unstable, irreversible retreat from its long-term position on a subglacial ridge to an upstream ice plain. This retreat can only be stopped when unrealistic cold forcing is applied. These results show that short warm anomalies can lead to quick and substantial increases in ice flux.
Jan De Rydt, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Mathias van Caspel, Ralph Timmermann, Pierre Mathiot, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, Pierre Dutrieux, Ben Galton-Fenzi, David Holland, and Ronja Reese
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7105–7139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, 2024
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Global climate models do not reliably simulate sea-level change due to ice-sheet–ocean interactions. We propose a community modelling effort to conduct a series of well-defined experiments to compare models with observations and study how models respond to a range of perturbations in climate and ice-sheet geometry. The second Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project will continue to lay the groundwork for including ice-sheet–ocean interactions in global-scale IPCC-class models.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Pierre Mathiot and Nicolas C. Jourdain
Ocean Sci., 19, 1595–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1595-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1595-2023, 2023
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How much the Antarctic ice shelf basal melt rate can increase in response to global warming remains an open question. To achieve this, we compared an ocean simulation under present-day atmospheric condition to a one under late 23rd century atmospheric conditions. The ocean response to the perturbation includes a decrease in the production of cold dense water and an increased intrusion of warmer water onto the continental shelves. This induces a substantial increase in ice shelf basal melt rates.
Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Ricarda Winkelmann, Mondher Chekki, David Chandler, and Petra M. Langebroek
The Cryosphere, 17, 3739–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, 2023
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The grounding lines of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could enter phases of irreversible retreat or advance. We use three ice sheet models to show that the present-day locations of Antarctic grounding lines are reversible with respect to a small perturbation away from their current position. This indicates that present-day retreat of the grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-enhancing.
Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, David Chandler, Petra M. Langebroek, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 3761–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, 2023
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We use an ice sheet model to test where current climate conditions in Antarctica might lead. We find that present-day ocean and atmosphere conditions might commit an irreversible collapse of parts of West Antarctica which evolves over centuries to millennia. Importantly, this collapse is not irreversible yet.
Alice C. Frémand, Peter Fretwell, Julien A. Bodart, Hamish D. Pritchard, Alan Aitken, Jonathan L. Bamber, Robin Bell, Cesidio Bianchi, Robert G. Bingham, Donald D. Blankenship, Gino Casassa, Ginny Catania, Knut Christianson, Howard Conway, Hugh F. J. Corr, Xiangbin Cui, Detlef Damaske, Volkmar Damm, Reinhard Drews, Graeme Eagles, Olaf Eisen, Hannes Eisermann, Fausto Ferraccioli, Elena Field, René Forsberg, Steven Franke, Shuji Fujita, Yonggyu Gim, Vikram Goel, Siva Prasad Gogineni, Jamin Greenbaum, Benjamin Hills, Richard C. A. Hindmarsh, Andrew O. Hoffman, Per Holmlund, Nicholas Holschuh, John W. Holt, Annika N. Horlings, Angelika Humbert, Robert W. Jacobel, Daniela Jansen, Adrian Jenkins, Wilfried Jokat, Tom Jordan, Edward King, Jack Kohler, William Krabill, Mette Kusk Gillespie, Kirsty Langley, Joohan Lee, German Leitchenkov, Carlton Leuschen, Bruce Luyendyk, Joseph MacGregor, Emma MacKie, Kenichi Matsuoka, Mathieu Morlighem, Jérémie Mouginot, Frank O. Nitsche, Yoshifumi Nogi, Ole A. Nost, John Paden, Frank Pattyn, Sergey V. Popov, Eric Rignot, David M. Rippin, Andrés Rivera, Jason Roberts, Neil Ross, Anotonia Ruppel, Dustin M. Schroeder, Martin J. Siegert, Andrew M. Smith, Daniel Steinhage, Michael Studinger, Bo Sun, Ignazio Tabacco, Kirsty Tinto, Stefano Urbini, David Vaughan, Brian C. Welch, Douglas S. Wilson, Duncan A. Young, and Achille Zirizzotti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2695–2710, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, 2023
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This paper presents the release of over 60 years of ice thickness, bed elevation, and surface elevation data acquired over Antarctica by the international community. These data are a crucial component of the Antarctic Bedmap initiative which aims to produce a new map and datasets of Antarctic ice thickness and bed topography for the international glaciology and geophysical community.
Katherine Hutchinson, Julie Deshayes, Christian Éthé, Clément Rousset, Casimir de Lavergne, Martin Vancoppenolle, Nicolas C. Jourdain, and Pierre Mathiot
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3629–3650, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3629-2023, 2023
Short summary
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Bottom Water constitutes the lower half of the ocean’s overturning system and is primarily formed in the Weddell and Ross Sea in the Antarctic due to interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and ice shelves. Here we use a global ocean 1° resolution model with explicit representation of the three large ice shelves important for the formation of the parent waters of Bottom Water. We find doing so reduces salt biases, improves water mass realism and gives realistic ice shelf melt rates.
Bertie W. J. Miles, Chris R. Stokes, Adrian Jenkins, Jim R. Jordan, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 17, 445–456, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-445-2023, 2023
Short summary
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Satellite observations have shown that the Shirase Glacier catchment in East Antarctica has been gaining mass over the past 2 decades, a trend largely attributed to increased snowfall. Our multi-decadal observations of Shirase Glacier show that ocean forcing has also contributed to some of this recent mass gain. This has been caused by strengthening easterly winds reducing the inflow of warm water underneath the Shirase ice tongue, causing the glacier to slow down and thicken.
Paul R. Holland, Gemma K. O'Connor, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Pierre Dutrieux, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Eric J. Steig, David P. Schneider, Adrian Jenkins, and James A. Smith
The Cryosphere, 16, 5085–5105, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022, 2022
Short summary
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The Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice, causing sea-level rise. However, it is not known whether human-induced climate change has contributed to this ice loss. In this study, we use evidence from climate models and palaeoclimate measurements (e.g. ice cores) to suggest that the ice loss was triggered by natural climate variations but is now sustained by human-forced climate change. This implies that future greenhouse-gas emissions may influence sea-level rise from Antarctica.
Clara Burgard, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ronja Reese, Adrian Jenkins, and Pierre Mathiot
The Cryosphere, 16, 4931–4975, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022, 2022
Short summary
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The ocean-induced melt at the base of the floating ice shelves around Antarctica is one of the largest uncertainty factors in the Antarctic contribution to future sea-level rise. We assess the performance of several existing parameterisations in simulating basal melt rates on a circum-Antarctic scale, using an ocean simulation resolving the cavities below the shelves as our reference. We find that the simple quadratic slope-independent and plume parameterisations yield the best compromise.
Jeremy Rohmer, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, Heiko Goelzer, and Gael Durand
The Cryosphere, 16, 4637–4657, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4637-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4637-2022, 2022
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To improve the interpretability of process-based projections of the sea-level contribution from land ice components, we apply the machine-learning-based
SHapley Additive exPlanationsapproach to a subset of a multi-model ensemble study for the Greenland ice sheet. This allows us to quantify the influence of particular modelling decisions (related to numerical implementation, initial conditions, or parametrisation of ice-sheet processes) directly in terms of sea-level change contribution.
Antony Siahaan, Robin S. Smith, Paul R. Holland, Adrian Jenkins, Jonathan M. Gregory, Victoria Lee, Pierre Mathiot, Antony J. Payne, Jeff K. Ridley, and Colin G. Jones
The Cryosphere, 16, 4053–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, 2022
Short summary
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The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Under the low-greenhouse-gas SSP1–1.9 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario, the ice sheet remains stable over the 21st century. Under the strong-greenhouse-gas SSP5–8.5 scenario, the model predicts strong increases in melting of large ice shelves and snow accumulation on the surface. The dominance of accumulation leads to a sea level fall at the end of the century.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Stefan Hofer, Cécile Agosta, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ella Gilbert, Louis Le Toumelin, Étienne Vignon, Hubert Gallée, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2655–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, 2022
Short summary
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Model projections suggest large differences in future Antarctic surface melting even for similar greenhouse gas scenarios and warming rates. We show that clouds containing a larger amount of liquid water lead to stronger melt. As surface melt can trigger the collapse of the ice shelves (the safety band of the Antarctic Ice Sheet), clouds could be a major source of uncertainties in projections of sea level rise.
Anna Derkacheva, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Jeremie Mouginot, Eliot Jager, Nathan Maier, and Samuel Cook
The Cryosphere, 15, 5675–5704, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5675-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5675-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Along the edges of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface melt lubricates the bed and causes large seasonal fluctuations in ice speeds during summer. Accurately understanding how these ice speed changes occur is difficult due to the inaccessibility of the glacier bed. We show that by using surface velocity maps with high temporal resolution and numerical modelling we can infer the basal conditions that control seasonal fluctuations in ice speed and gain insight into seasonal dynamics over large areas.
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Short summary
The melting at the base of floating ice shelves is the main driver of the Antarctic ice sheet current retreat. Here, we use an ideal set-up to assess a wide range of melting parameterisations depending on oceanic properties with regard to a new ocean–ice-sheet coupled model, published here for the first time. A parameterisation that depends quadratically on thermal forcing in both a local and a non-local way yields the best results and needs to be further assessed with more realistic set-ups.
The melting at the base of floating ice shelves is the main driver of the Antarctic ice sheet...
