Articles | Volume 3, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-13-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-13-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
11 Jan 2010
Mapping technique of climate fields between GCM's and ice models
T. J. Reerink
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, 3508 TA Utrecht, The Netherlands
M. A. Kliphuis
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, 3508 TA Utrecht, The Netherlands
R. S. W. van de Wal
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, 3508 TA Utrecht, The Netherlands
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The Cryosphere, 11, 1949–1965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1949-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1949-2017, 2017
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Ice sheets reflect most incoming solar radiation back into space due to their high reflectivity (albedo). The albedo of ice sheets changes as a function of, for example, liquid water content and ageing of snow. In this study we have improved the description of albedo over the Greenland ice sheet in a global climate model. This is an important step, which also improves estimates of the annual ice mass gain or loss over the ice sheet using this global climate model.
Kim de Wit, Kim M. Cohen, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 545–577, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-545-2025, 2025
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In the Holocene, deltas and coastal plains developed due to relative sea level rise (RSLR). Past coastal and inland water levels are preserved in geological indicators, like basal peats. We present a dataset of 712 Holocene water level indicators from the Dutch coastal plain, relevant for studying RSLR and regional subsidence, compiled in HOLSEA workbook format. Our new, internally consistent, expanded documentation encourages multiple data uses and to report RSLR uncertainties transparently.
Tim H. J. Hermans, Chiheb Ben Hammouda, Simon Treu, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anaïs Couasnon, Julius J. M. Busecke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-196, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-196, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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We studied the performance of different types of neural networks at predicting extreme storm surges. We found that that performance improves when during model training, events with a lower density are given a higher weight. Additionally, we found that the performance of especially convolutional neural networks approaches that of a state-of-the-art hydrodynamic model. This is promising for the application of neural networks to climate model simulations.
Franka Jesse, Erwin Lambert, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4058, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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We introduce the coupling of a sub-shelf melt model with an ice sheet model to explore how horizontal meltwater flow below ice shelves affects ice sheet mass loss over time. We show that accurately modelling the meltwater flow direction leads to distinct feedbacks and transient volume loss, not captured by melt parameterisations that simplify flow direction. Our results highlight the importance of refining the meltwater flow representation in ice sheet models to improve sea level projections.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Jorjo Bernales, Constantijn J. Berends, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 283–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, 2025
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In this study, we present an improved way of representing ice thickness change rates in an ice sheet model. We apply this method using two ice sheet models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We found that the two largest outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, will collapse without further warming on a timescale of centuries. This would cause a sea level rise of about 1.2 m globally.
Caroline Jacoba van Calcar, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Wouter van der Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2982, 2024
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The bedrock response to a melting Antarctic ice sheet delays grounding line retreat by up to 130 years and reduces sea level rise by up to 23% compared to excluding this effect. Current ice sheet models often use computationally fast but simplified Earth models that do not capture this feedback well. We recommend parameters for simple Earth models that approximate bedrock uplift and ice sheet evolution from a complex ice sheet - Earth model to improve sea level projections of the next centuries.
Angélique Melet, Roderik van de Wal, Angel Amores, Arne Arns, Alisée A. Chaigneau, Irina Dinu, Ivan D. Haigh, Tim H. J. Hermans, Piero Lionello, Marta Marcos, H. E. Markus Meier, Benoit Meyssignac, Matthew D. Palmer, Ronja Reese, Matthew J. R. Simpson, and Aimée B. A. Slangen
State Planet, 3-slre1, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, 2024
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The EU Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise’s Assessment Report strives to synthesize the current scientific knowledge on sea level rise and its impacts across local, national, and EU scales to support evidence-based policy and decision-making, primarily targeting coastal areas. This paper complements IPCC reports by documenting the state of knowledge of observed and 21st century projected changes in mean and extreme sea levels with more regional information for EU seas as scoped with stakeholders.
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024
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Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
Bart van den Hurk, Nadia Pinardi, Alexander Bisaro, Giulia Galluccio, José A. Jiménez, Kate Larkin, Angélique Melet, Lavinia Giulia Pomarico, Kristin Richter, Kanika Singh, Roderik van de Wal, and Gundula Winter
State Planet, 3-slre1, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, 2024
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The Summary for Policymakers compiles findings from “Sea Level Rise in Europe: 1st Assessment Report of the Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise”. It covers knowledge gaps, observations, projections, impacts, adaptation measures, decision-making principles, and governance challenges. It provides information for each European basin (Mediterranean, Black Sea, North Sea, Baltic Sea, Atlantic, and Arctic) and aims to assist policymakers in enhancing the preparedness of European coasts for sea level rise.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-57, 2024
Preprint under review for CP
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Glacial cycle duration changed from 41.000 to 100.000 years during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT), but the cause is still under debate. We simulate the MPT with an ice-sheet model forced by prescribed CO2 and insolation, and simple ice-climate interactions. Before the MPT, glacial cycles follow insolation. After the MPT, low CO2 levels may compensate warming at insolation maxima, increasing the length of glacial cycles until the North American ice sheet becomes large and thereby unstable.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 20, 1761–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1761-2024, 2024
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During Late Pleistocene glacial cycles, the Eurasian and North American ice sheets grew and melted, resulting in over 100 m of sea-level change. Studying the melting of past ice sheets can improve our understanding of how ice sheets might respond in the future. In this study, we find that melting increases due to proglacial lakes forming at the margins of the ice sheets, primarily due to the reduced basal friction of floating ice. Furthermore, bedrock uplift rates can strongly influence melting.
Daniel Francis James Gunning, Kerim Hestnes Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1384, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1384, 2024
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This work documents the first results from ZEMBA: an energy balance model of the climate system. The model is a computationally efficient tool designed to study the response of climate to changes in the Earth’s orbit. We demonstrate ZEMBA reproduces many features of the Earth’s climate for both the pre-industrial period and the Earth’s most recent cold extreme- the Last Glacial Maximum. We intend to develop ZEMBA further and investigate the glacial cycles of the last 2.5 million years.
Constantijn J. Berends, Victor Azizi, Jorge Bernales, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-5, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-5, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for GMD
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Ice-sheet models are computer programs that can simulate how the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will evolve in the future. The accuracy of these models depends on their resolution: how small the details are that the model can resolve. We have created a model with a variable resolution, which can resolve a lot of detail in areas where lots of changes happen in the ice, and less detail in areas where the ice does not move so much. This makes the model both accurate and fast.
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 20, 257–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-257-2024, 2024
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Analysing simulations of Antarctic Ice Sheet variability during the early and mid-Miocene (23 to 14 Myr ago), we find that the ice sheet area adapts faster and more strongly than volume to climate change on quasi-orbital timescales. Considering the recent discovery that ice area, rather than volume, influences deep-ocean temperatures, this implies that the Miocene Antarctic Ice Sheet affects deep-ocean temperatures more than its volume suggests.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Caroline J. van Calcar, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Bas Blank, Bas de Boer, and Wouter van der Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5473–5492, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, 2023
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The waxing and waning of the Antarctic ice sheet caused the Earth’s surface to deform, which is stabilizing the ice sheet and mainly determined by the spatially variable viscosity of the mantle. Including this feedback in model simulations led to significant differences in ice sheet extent and ice thickness over the last glacial cycle. The results underline and quantify the importance of including this local feedback effect in ice sheet models when simulating the Antarctic ice sheet evolution.
Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Paul R. Holland
The Cryosphere, 17, 3203–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, 2023
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A major uncertainty in the study of sea level rise is the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet by the ocean. Here, we have developed a new model, named LADDIE, that simulates this ocean-driven melting of the floating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet. This model simulates fine-scale patterns of melting and freezing and requires significantly fewer computational resources than state-of-the-art ocean models. LADDIE can be used as a new tool to force high-resolution ice sheet models.
Iris Keizer, Dewi Le Bars, Cees de Valk, André Jüling, Roderik van de Wal, and Sybren Drijfhout
Ocean Sci., 19, 991–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, 2023
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Using tide gauge observations, we show that the acceleration of sea-level rise (SLR) along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s but was masked by wind field and nodal-tide variations. This finding aligns with global SLR observations and expectations based on a physical understanding of SLR related to global warming.
Constantijn J. Berends, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Tim van den Akker, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 17, 1585–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, 2023
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The rate at which the Antarctic ice sheet will melt because of anthropogenic climate change is uncertain. Part of this uncertainty stems from processes occurring beneath the ice, such as the way the ice slides over the underlying bedrock.
Inversion methodsattempt to use observations of the ice-sheet surface to calculate how these sliding processes work. We show that such methods cannot fully solve this problem, so a substantial uncertainty still remains in projections of sea-level rise.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 19, 399–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, 2023
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Ice sheets have a large effect on climate and vice versa. Here we use an ice sheet computer model to simulate the last glacial cycle and compare two methods, one that implicitly includes these feedbacks and one that does not. We found that when including simple climate feedbacks, the North American ice sheet develops from two domes instead of many small domes. Each ice sheet melts slower when including feedbacks. We attribute this difference mostly to air temperature–ice sheet interactions.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, Thomas J. Reerink, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5667–5688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, 2022
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The rate at which marine ice sheets such as the West Antarctic ice sheet will retreat in a warming climate and ocean is still uncertain. Numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physical equations that describe the way glaciers and ice sheets deform and flow, have been substantially improved in recent years. Here we present the results of several years of work on IMAU-ICE, an ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity, which can be used to study ice sheets of both the past and the future.
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Edward G. W. Gasson
The Cryosphere, 16, 1315–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, 2022
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To gain understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheet responded to CO2 changes during past warm climate conditions, we simulate its variability during the Miocene. We include feedbacks between the ice sheet and atmosphere in our model and force the model using time-varying climate conditions. We find that these feedbacks reduce the amplitude of ice volume variations. Erosion-induced changes in the bedrock below the ice sheet that manifested during the Miocene also have a damping effect.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2443–2470, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2443-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2443-2021, 2021
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The largest uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise comes from ice-sheet retreat. To better understand how these ice sheets respond to the changing climate, ice-sheet models are used, which must be able to reproduce both their present and past evolution. We have created a model that is fast enough to simulate an ice sheet at a high resolution over the course of an entire 120 000-year glacial cycle. This allows us to study processes that cannot be captured by lower-resolution models.
Constantijn J. Berends, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 17, 361–377, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-361-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-361-2021, 2021
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For the past 2.6 million years, the Earth has experienced glacial cycles, where vast ice sheets periodically grew to cover large parts of North America and Eurasia. In the earlier part of this period, this happened every 40 000 years. This value changed 1.2 million years ago to 100 000 years: the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. We investigate this interesting period using an ice-sheet model, studying the interactions between ice sheets and the global climate.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
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We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
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In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
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The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Sophie Nowicki, Heiko Goelzer, Hélène Seroussi, Anthony J. Payne, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Richard Cullather, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Luke D. Trusel, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020
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This paper describes the experimental protocol for ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparion Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) and presents an overview of the atmospheric and oceanic datasets to be used for the simulations. The ISMIP6 framework allows for exploring the uncertainty in 21st century sea level change from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Heiko Goelzer, Brice P. Y. Noël, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, William H. Lipscomb, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 1747–1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, 2020
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Future sea-level change projections with process-based ice sheet models are typically driven with surface mass balance forcing derived from climate models. In this work we address the problems arising from a mismatch of the modelled ice sheet geometry with the one used by the climate model. The proposed remapping method reproduces the original forcing data closely when applied to the original geometry and produces a physically meaningful forcing when applied to different modelled geometries.
Heiko Goelzer, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, Bas de Boer, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 833–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, 2020
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In our ice-sheet modelling experience and from exchange with colleagues in different groups, we found that it is not always clear how to calculate the sea-level contribution from a marine ice-sheet model. This goes hand in hand with a lack of documentation and transparency in the published literature on how the sea-level contribution is estimated in different models. With this brief communication, we hope to stimulate awareness and discussion in the community to improve on this situation.
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
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We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Constantijn J. Berends, Bas de Boer, Aisling M. Dolan, Daniel J. Hill, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 15, 1603–1619, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1603-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1603-2019, 2019
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The Late Pliocene, 3.65–2.75 million years ago, is the most recent period in Earth's history that was warmer than the present. This makes it interesting for climatological research, because it provides a possible analogue for the near future. We used a coupled ice-sheet–climate model to simulate the behaviour of these systems during this period. We show that the warmest moment saw a sea-level rise of 8–14 m, with a CO2 concentration of 320–400 ppmv.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
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We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Constantijn J. Berends, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4657–4675, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4657-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4657-2018, 2018
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We have devised a novel way to couple a climate model to an ice-sheet model. Usually, climate models are too slow to simulate more than a few centuries, whereas our new model set-up can simulate a full 120 000-year ice age in about 12 h. This makes it possible to look at the interactions between global climate and ice sheets on long timescales, something which is relevant for both research into past climate and future projections.
Eef C. H. van Dongen, Nina Kirchner, Martin B. van Gijzen, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Thomas Zwinger, Gong Cheng, Per Lötstedt, and Lina von Sydow
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4563–4576, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4563-2018, 2018
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Ice flow forced by gravity is governed by the full Stokes (FS) equations, which are computationally expensive to solve. Therefore, approximations to the FS equations are used, especially when modeling an ice sheet on long time spans. Here, we report a combination of an approximation with the FS equations that allows simulating the dynamics of ice sheets over long time spans without introducing artifacts caused by application of approximations in parts of the domain where they are not valid.
Sarah L. Bradley, Thomas J. Reerink, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel M. Helsen
Clim. Past, 14, 619–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-619-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-619-2018, 2018
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Tamsin Edwards, Matthew Beckley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Reinhard Calov, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan Gregory, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Joseph H. Kennedy, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Sébastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Christian Rodehacke, Martin Rückamp, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Roderik van de Wal, and Florian A. Ziemen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018
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We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, J. Melchior van Wessem, Erik van Meijgaard, Dirk van As, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Stef Lhermitte, Peter Kuipers Munneke, C. J. P. Paul Smeets, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 811–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, 2018
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We present a detailed evaluation of the latest version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3p2 at 11 km resolution (1958–2016) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). The model successfully reproduces the present-day climate and surface mass balance, i.e. snowfall minus meltwater run-off, of the GrIS compared to in situ observations. Since run-off from marginal narrow glaciers is poorly resolved at 11 km, further statistical downscaling to 1 km resolution is required for mass balance studies.
Werner M. J. Lazeroms, Adrian Jenkins, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 12, 49–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-49-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-49-2018, 2018
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Basal melting of ice shelves is a major factor in the decline of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which can contribute significantly to sea-level rise. Here, we investigate a new basal melt model based on the dynamics of meltwater plumes. For the first time, this model is applied to all Antarctic ice shelves. The model results in a realistic melt-rate pattern given suitable data for the topography and ocean temperature, making it a promising tool for future simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Renske C. de Winter, Thomas J. Reerink, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Hylke de Vries, Tamsin Edwards, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2125–2141, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017, 2017
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This paper provides a full range of possible future sea levels on a regional scale, since it includes extreme, but possible, contributions to sea level change from dynamical mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. In contrast to the symmetric distribution used in the IPCC report, it is found that an asymmetric distribution toward high sea level change values locally can increase the mean sea level by 1.8 m this century.
Lennert B. Stap, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Bas de Boer, Richard Bintanja, and Lucas J. Lourens
Clim. Past, 13, 1243–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1243-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1243-2017, 2017
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We show the results of transient simulations with a coupled climate–ice sheet model over the past 38 million years. The CO2 forcing of the model is inversely obtained from a benthic δ18O stack. These simulations enable us to study the influence of ice sheet variability on climate change on long timescales. We find that ice sheet–climate interaction strongly enhances Earth system sensitivity and polar amplification.
Michiel M. Helsen, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Thomas J. Reerink, Richard Bintanja, Marianne S. Madsen, Shuting Yang, Qiang Li, and Qiong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 11, 1949–1965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1949-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1949-2017, 2017
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Ice sheets reflect most incoming solar radiation back into space due to their high reflectivity (albedo). The albedo of ice sheets changes as a function of, for example, liquid water content and ageing of snow. In this study we have improved the description of albedo over the Greenland ice sheet in a global climate model. This is an important step, which also improves estimates of the annual ice mass gain or loss over the ice sheet using this global climate model.
Markella Prokopiou, Patricia Martinerie, Célia J. Sapart, Emmanuel Witrant, Guillaume Monteil, Kentaro Ishijima, Sophie Bernard, Jan Kaiser, Ingeborg Levin, Thomas Blunier, David Etheridge, Ed Dlugokencky, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Thomas Röckmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4539–4564, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4539-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4539-2017, 2017
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Nitrous oxide is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas with an increasing mole fraction. To understand its natural and anthropogenic sources
we employ isotope measurements. Results show that while the N2O mole fraction increases, its heavy isotope content decreases. The isotopic changes observed underline the dominance of agricultural emissions especially at the early part of the record, whereas in the later decades the contribution from other anthropogenic sources increases.
Constantijn J. Berends and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4451–4460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4451-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4451-2016, 2016
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This paper describes several improvements to the so-called "flood-fill algorithm" – a computer program widely known for its use in the "paint bucket" tool in several drawing programs such as MS Paint. However, it can also be used to determine the extent and depth of lakes in a topography map, which is useful in hydrology and climatology. In such cases, the default algorithm can be too slow to be of much use. Our improvements can make it up to 100 times faster, making it much more feasible.
Thomas J. Reerink, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4111–4132, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4111-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4111-2016, 2016
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Ice sheets are part of the climate system and interact with the atmosphere and the ocean. OBLIMAP is a powerful tool to map climate fields between GCMs and ISMs (ice sheet models), which run on grids that differ in curvature, resolution and extent. OBLIMAP uses optimal aligned oblique projections, which minimize area distortions. OBLIMAP 2.0 allows for high-frequency embedded coupling and masked mapping. A fast search strategy realizes a huge performance gain and enables high-resolution mapping.
Peter Köhler, Lennert B. Stap, Anna S. von der Heydt, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-23, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-23, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Evidence indicate that specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global annual mean surface temperature change as a response to a change in radiative forcing, is state dependent. We here show that the interpretation of data in the state-dependent case is not straightforward. We analyse the differences of a point-wise approach and one based on a piece-wise linear analysis, combine both, compare with potential model results and apply the theoretical concepts to data of the last 800 kyr.
P. Köhler, B. de Boer, A. S. von der Heydt, L. B. Stap, and R. S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 11, 1801–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1801-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1801-2015, 2015
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We find that the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity due to radiative forcing of CO2 and land ice albedo has been state-dependent for the last 2.1Myr (most of the Pleistocene). Its value is ~45% larger during intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. The state dependency is mainly caused by a latitudinal dependency in ice sheet area changes. Due to uncertainties in CO2, firm conclusions for the Pliocene are not yet possible.
B. Noël, W. J. van de Berg, E. van Meijgaard, P. Kuipers Munneke, R. S. W. van de Wal, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 9, 1831–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1831-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1831-2015, 2015
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We compare Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance (SMB) from the updated polar version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3 and the previous version 2.1. RACMO2.3 has an adjusted rainfall-to-snowfall conversion favouring summer snowfall over rainfall. Enhanced summer snowfall reduce melt rates in the ablation zone by covering dark ice with highly reflective fresh snow. This improves the modelled SMB-elevation gradient and surface energy balance compared to observations in west Greenland.
L. G. van der Wel, H. A. Been, R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and H. A. J. Meijer
The Cryosphere, 9, 1089–1103, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1089-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1089-2015, 2015
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We performed 2H isotope diffusion measurements in the upper 3 metres of firn at Summit, Greenland, by following over a 4-year period isotope-enriched snow that we deposited.
We found that the diffusion process was much less rapid than in the most commonly used model. We discuss several aspects of the diffusion process that are still poorly constrained and might lead to this discrepancy. Quantitative knowledge of diffusion is necessary for use of the diffusion process itself as a climate proxy.
B. de Boer, A. M. Dolan, J. Bernales, E. Gasson, H. Goelzer, N. R. Golledge, J. Sutter, P. Huybrechts, G. Lohmann, I. Rogozhina, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 9, 881–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, 2015
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We present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an intercomparison project with six ice-sheet models. Our results demonstrate the difficulty of all models used here to simulate a significant retreat or re-advance of the East Antarctic ice grounding line. Improved grounding-line physics could be essential for a correct representation of the migration of the grounding line of the Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene.
R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, W. Boot, M. Stoffelen, R. van Kampen, S. H. Doyle, F. Wilhelms, M. R. van den Broeke, C. H. Reijmer, J. Oerlemans, and A. Hubbard
The Cryosphere, 9, 603–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-603-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-603-2015, 2015
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This paper addresses the feedback between ice flow and melt rates. Using 20 years of data covering the whole ablation area, we show that there is not a strong positive correlation between annual ice velocities and melt rates. Rapid variations around the equilibrium line indicate the possibility of rapid variations high on the ice sheet.
S. J. Koenig, A. M. Dolan, B. de Boer, E. J. Stone, D. J. Hill, R. M. DeConto, A. Abe-Ouchi, D. J. Lunt, D. Pollard, A. Quiquet, F. Saito, J. Savage, and R. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 11, 369–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-369-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-369-2015, 2015
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The paper assess the Greenland Ice Sheet’s sensitivity to a warm period in the past, a time when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were comparable to current levels. We quantify ice sheet volume and locations in Greenland and find that the ice sheets are less sensitive to differences in ice sheet model configurations than to changes in imposed climate forcing. We conclude that Pliocene ice was most likely to be limited to highest elevations in eastern and southern Greenland.
D. J. Mrozek, C. van der Veen, M. Kliphuis, J. Kaiser, A. A. Wiegel, and T. Röckmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 811–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-811-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-811-2015, 2015
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Our analytical system is a promising tool for investigating the triple oxygen isotope composition of CO2 from stratospheric air samples of volumes 100ml and smaller. The method is designed for measuring air samples with CO2 mole fractions between 360 and 400ppm, and it is the first fully automated analytical system that uses CeO2 as the isotope exchange medium.
P. M. Alexander, M. Tedesco, X. Fettweis, R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 8, 2293–2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2293-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2293-2014, 2014
L. B. Stap, R. S. W. van de Wal, B. de Boer, R. Bintanja, and L. J. Lourens
Clim. Past, 10, 2135–2152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2135-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2135-2014, 2014
S.-E. Brunnabend, H. A. Dijkstra, M. A. Kliphuis, B. van Werkhoven, H. E. Bal, F. Seinstra, J. Maassen, and M. van Meersbergen
Ocean Sci., 10, 881–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-881-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-881-2014, 2014
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Regional sea surface height (SSH) changes due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are simulated with a high- and low-resolution model. A rapid decrease of the AMOC in the high-resolution version induces shorter return times of several specific regional and coastal extremes in North Atlantic SSH than in the low-resolution version. This effect is caused by a change in main eddy pathways associated with a change in separation latitude of the Gulf Stream.
B. de Boer, P. Stocchi, and R. S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2141–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2141-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2141-2014, 2014
A. B. A. Slangen, R. S. W. van de Wal, Y. Wada, and L. L. A. Vermeersen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 243–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-243-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-243-2014, 2014
B. van Werkhoven, J. Maassen, M. Kliphuis, H. A. Dijkstra, S. E. Brunnabend, M. van Meersbergen, F. J. Seinstra, and H. E. Bal
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 267–281, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-267-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-267-2014, 2014
M. M. Helsen, W. J. van de Berg, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, and J. Oerlemans
Clim. Past, 9, 1773–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013, 2013
M. M. Helsen, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, W. J. van de Berg, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 6, 255–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-255-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-255-2012, 2012
R. S. W. van de Wal, B. de Boer, L. J. Lourens, P. Köhler, and R. Bintanja
Clim. Past, 7, 1459–1469, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1459-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1459-2011, 2011
A. B. A. Slangen and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 5, 673–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-673-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-673-2011, 2011
D. Liebrand, L. J. Lourens, D. A. Hodell, B. de Boer, R. S. W. van de Wal, and H. Pälike
Clim. Past, 7, 869–880, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-869-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-869-2011, 2011
I. G. M. Wientjes, R. S. W. Van de Wal, G. J. Reichart, A. Sluijs, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 5, 589–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-589-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-589-2011, 2011
M. R. van den Broeke, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 5, 377–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-377-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-377-2011, 2011
M. A. G. den Ouden, C. H. Reijmer, V. Pohjola, R. S. W. van de Wal, J. Oerlemans, and W. Boot
The Cryosphere, 4, 593–604, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-593-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-593-2010, 2010
M. van den Broeke, P. Smeets, J. Ettema, C. van der Veen, R. van de Wal, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 2, 179–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-179-2008, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-179-2008, 2008
J. Oerlemans, M. Dyurgerov, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 1, 59–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-1-59-2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-1-59-2007, 2007
J. O. Sewall, R. S. W. van de Wal, K. van der Zwan, C. van Oosterhout, H. A. Dijkstra, and C. R. Scotese
Clim. Past, 3, 647–657, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-647-2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-647-2007, 2007
Related subject area
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A global–land snow scheme (GLASS) v1.0 for the GFDL Earth System Model: formulation and evaluation at instrumented sites
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Southern Ocean Ice Prediction System version 1.0 (SOIPS v1.0): description of the system and evaluation of synoptic-scale sea ice forecasts
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An empirical model to calculate snow depth from daily snow water equivalent: SWE2HS 1.0
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Introducing CRYOWRF v1.0: multiscale atmospheric flow simulations with advanced snow cover modelling
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An improved regional coupled modeling system for Arctic sea ice simulation and prediction: a case study for 2018
Anton Korosov, Yue Ying, and Einar Ólason
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 885–904, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-885-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-885-2025, 2025
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We have developed a new method to improve the accuracy of sea ice models, which predict how ice moves and deforms due to wind and ocean currents. Traditional models use parameters that are often poorly defined. The new approach uses machine learning to fine-tune these parameters by comparing simulated ice drift with satellite data. The method identifies optimal settings for the model by analysing patterns in ice deformation. This results in more accurate simulations of sea ice drift forecasting.
Xia Wang, Tao Che, Xueyin Ruan, Shanna Yue, Jing Wang, Chun Zhao, and Lei Geng
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 651–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-651-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-651-2025, 2025
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We employed the WRF-Chem model to parameterize atmospheric nitrate deposition in snow and evaluate its performance in simulating snow cover, snow depth, and concentrations of dust and nitrate using new observations from northern China. The results generally exhibit reasonable agreement with field observations in northern China, demonstrating the model's capability to simulate snow properties, including concentrations of reservoir species.
Simon Horton, Florian Herla, and Pascal Haegeli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 193–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-193-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-193-2025, 2025
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We present a method for avalanche forecasters to analyze patterns in snowpack model simulations. It uses fuzzy clustering to group small regions into larger forecast areas based on snow characteristics, locations, and temporal history. Tested in the Columbia Mountains in two winter seasons, it closely matched real forecast regions regions and identified major avalanche hazard patterns. This approach simplifies complex model outputs, helping forecasters make informed decisions.
Adrien Michel, Johannes Aschauer, Tobias Jonas, Stefanie Gubler, Sven Kotlarski, and Christoph Marty
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8969–8988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8969-2024, 2024
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We present a method to correct snow cover maps (represented in terms of snow water equivalent) to match better-quality maps. The correction can then be extended backwards and forwards in time for periods when better-quality maps are not available. The method is fast and gives good results. It is then applied to obtain a climatology of the snow cover in Switzerland over the past 60 years at a resolution of 1 d and 1 km. This is the first time that such a dataset has been produced.
Ghislain Picard and Quentin Libois
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8927–8953, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8927-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8927-2024, 2024
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The Two-streAm Radiative TransfEr in Snow (TARTES) is a radiative transfer model to compute snow albedo in the solar domain and the profiles of light and energy absorption in a multi-layered snowpack whose physical properties are user defined. It uniquely considers snow grain shape flexibly, based on recent insights showing that snow does not behave as a collection of ice spheres but instead as a random medium. TARTES is user-friendly yet performs comparably to more complex models.
Yoshihiro Nakayama, Alena Malyarenko, Hong Zhang, Ou Wang, Matthis Auger, Yafei Nie, Ian Fenty, Matthew Mazloff, Armin Köhl, and Dimitris Menemenlis
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8613–8638, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8613-2024, 2024
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Global- and basin-scale ocean reanalyses are becoming easily accessible. However, such ocean reanalyses are optimized for their entire model domains and their ability to simulate the Southern Ocean requires evaluation. We conduct intercomparison analyses of Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm)-based ocean reanalyses. They generally perform well for the open ocean, but open-ocean temporal variability and Antarctic continental shelves require improvements.
Diego Monteiro, Cécile Caillaud, Matthieu Lafaysse, Adrien Napoly, Mathieu Fructus, Antoinette Alias, and Samuel Morin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7645–7677, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7645-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7645-2024, 2024
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Modeling snow cover in climate and weather forecasting models is a challenge even for high-resolution models. Recent simulations with CNRM-AROME have shown difficulties when representing snow in the European Alps. Using remote sensing data and in situ observations, we evaluate modifications of the land surface configuration in order to improve it. We propose a new surface configuration, enabling a more realistic simulation of snow cover, relevant for climate and weather forecasting applications.
Alessandro Maissen, Frank Techel, and Michele Volpi
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7569–7593, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7569-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7569-2024, 2024
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By harnessing AI models, this work enables processing large amounts of data, including weather conditions, snowpack characteristics, and historical avalanche data, to predict human-like avalanche forecasts in Switzerland. Our proposed model can significantly assist avalanche forecasters in their decision-making process, thereby facilitating more efficient and accurate predictions crucial for ensuring safety in Switzerland's avalanche-prone regions.
Enrico Zorzetto, Sergey Malyshev, Paul Ginoux, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7219–7244, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7219-2024, 2024
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We describe a new snow scheme developed for use in global climate models, which simulates the interactions of snowpack with vegetation, atmosphere, and soil. We test the new snow model over a set of sites where in situ observations are available. We find that when compared to a simpler snow model, this model improves predictions of seasonal snow and of soil temperature under the snowpack, important variables for simulating both the hydrological cycle and the global climate system.
Therese Rieckh, Andreas Born, Alexander Robinson, Robert Law, and Gerrit Gülle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6987–7000, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6987-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6987-2024, 2024
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We present the open-source model ELSA, which simulates the internal age structure of large ice sheets. It creates layers of snow accumulation at fixed times during the simulation, which are used to model the internal stratification of the ice sheet. Together with reconstructed isochrones from radiostratigraphy data, ELSA can be used to assess ice sheet models and to improve their parameterization. ELSA can be used coupled to an ice sheet model or forced with its output.
Fu Zhao, Xi Liang, Zhongxiang Tian, Ming Li, Na Liu, and Chengyan Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6867–6886, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6867-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6867-2024, 2024
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In this work, we introduce a newly developed Antarctic sea ice forecasting system, namely the Southern Ocean Ice Prediction System (SOIPS). The system is based on a regional sea ice‒ocean‒ice shelf coupled model and can assimilate sea ice concentration observations. By assessing the system's performance in sea ice forecasts, we find that the system can provide reliable Antarctic sea ice forecasts for the next 7 d and has the potential to guide ship navigation in the Antarctic sea ice zone.
Chenhui Ning, Shiming Xu, Yan Zhang, Xuantong Wang, Zhihao Fan, and Jiping Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6847–6866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6847-2024, 2024
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Sea ice models are mainly based on non-moving structured grids, which is different from buoy measurements that follow the ice drift. To facilitate Lagrangian analysis, we introduce online tracking of sea ice in Community Ice CodE (CICE). We validate the sea ice tracking with buoys and evaluate the sea ice deformation in high-resolution simulations, which show multi-fractal characteristics. The source code is openly available and can be used in various scientific and operational applications.
Ulrich Strasser, Michael Warscher, Erwin Rottler, and Florian Hanzer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6775–6797, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6775-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6775-2024, 2024
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openAMUNDSEN is a fully distributed open-source snow-hydrological model for mountain catchments. It includes process representations of an empirical, semi-empirical, and physical nature. It uses temperature, precipitation, humidity, radiation, and wind speed as forcing data and is computationally efficient, of a modular nature, and easily extendible. The Python code is available on GitHub (https://github.com/openamundsen/openamundsen), including documentation (https://doc.openamundsen.org).
Matthias Rauter and Julia Kowalski
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6545–6569, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6545-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6545-2024, 2024
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Snow avalanches can form large powder clouds that substantially exceed the velocity and reach of the dense core. Only a few complex models exist to simulate this phenomenon, and the respective hazard is hard to predict. This work provides a novel flow model that focuses on simple relations while still encapsulating the significant behaviour. The model is applied to reconstruct two catastrophic powder snow avalanche events in Austria.
Till Andreas Soya Rasmussen, Jacob Poulsen, Mads Hvid Ribergaard, Ruchira Sasanka, Anthony P. Craig, Elizabeth C. Hunke, and Stefan Rethmeier
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6529–6544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6529-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6529-2024, 2024
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Earth system models (ESMs) today strive for better quality based on improved resolutions and improved physics. A limiting factor is the supercomputers at hand and how best to utilize them. This study focuses on the refactorization of one part of a sea ice model (CICE), namely the dynamics. It shows that the performance can be significantly improved, which means that one can either run the same simulations much cheaper or advance the system according to what is needed.
Iain Wheel, Douglas I. Benn, Anna J. Crawford, Joe Todd, and Thomas Zwinger
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5759–5777, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5759-2024, 2024
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Calving, the detachment of large icebergs from glaciers, is one of the largest uncertainties in future sea level rise projections. This process is poorly understood, and there is an absence of detailed models capable of simulating calving. A new 3D calving model has been developed to better understand calving at glaciers where detailed modelling was previously limited. Importantly, the new model is very flexible. By allowing for unrestricted calving geometries, it can be applied at any location.
Jan Svoboda, Marc Ruesch, David Liechti, Corinne Jones, Michele Volpi, Michael Zehnder, and Jürg Schweizer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1752, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1752, 2024
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Accurately measuring snow height is key for modeling approaches in climate sciences, snow hydrology and avalanche forecasting. Erroneous snow height measurements often occur when the snow height is low or changes, for instance, during a snowfall in the summer. We prepare a new benchmark dataset with annotated snow height data and demonstrate how to improve the measurement quality using modern deep learning approaches. Our approach can be easily implemented into a data pipeline for snow modeling.
Jim Marschalek, Edward Gasson, Tina van de Flierdt, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Martin Siegert, and Liam Holder
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-104, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-104, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Ice sheet models can help predict how Antarctica's ice sheets respond to environmental change, and such models benefit from comparison to geological data. Here, we use an ice sheet model output, plus other data, to predict the erosion of debris and trace its transport to where it is deposited on the ocean floor. This allows the results of ice sheet modelling to be directly and quantitively compared to real-world data, helping to reduce uncertainty regarding Antarctic sea level contribution.
Kévin Fourteau, Julien Brondex, Fanny Brun, and Marie Dumont
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1903–1929, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1903-2024, 2024
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In this paper, we provide a novel numerical implementation for solving the energy exchanges at the surface of snow and ice. By combining the strong points of previous models, our solution leads to more accurate and robust simulations of the energy exchanges, surface temperature, and melt while preserving a reasonable computation time.
Matthieu Baron, Ange Haddjeri, Matthieu Lafaysse, Louis Le Toumelin, Vincent Vionnet, and Mathieu Fructus
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1297–1326, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1297-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1297-2024, 2024
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Increasing the spatial resolution of numerical systems simulating snowpack evolution in mountain areas requires representing small-scale processes such as wind-induced snow transport. We present SnowPappus, a simple scheme coupled with the Crocus snow model to compute blowing-snow fluxes and redistribute snow among grid points at 250 m resolution. In terms of numerical cost, it is suitable for large-scale applications. We present point-scale evaluations of fluxes and snow transport occurrence.
Lizz Ultee, Alexander A. Robel, and Stefano Castruccio
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1041–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1041-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1041-2024, 2024
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The surface mass balance (SMB) of an ice sheet describes the net gain or loss of mass from ice sheets (such as those in Greenland and Antarctica) through interaction with the atmosphere. We developed a statistical method to generate a wide range of SMB fields that reflect the best understanding of SMB processes. Efficiently sampling the variability of SMB will help us understand sources of uncertainty in ice sheet model projections.
Anjali Sandip, Ludovic Räss, and Mathieu Morlighem
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 899–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-899-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-899-2024, 2024
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We solve momentum balance for unstructured meshes to predict ice flow for real glaciers using a pseudo-transient method on graphics processing units (GPUs) and compare it to a standard central processing unit (CPU) implementation. We justify the GPU implementation by applying the price-to-performance metric for up to million-grid-point spatial resolutions. This study represents a first step toward leveraging GPU processing power, enabling more accurate polar ice discharge predictions.
Julien Brondex, Kévin Fourteau, Marie Dumont, Pascal Hagenmuller, Neige Calonne, François Tuzet, and Henning Löwe
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7075–7106, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7075-2023, 2023
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Vapor diffusion is one of the main processes governing snowpack evolution, and it must be accounted for in models. Recent attempts to represent vapor diffusion in numerical models have faced several difficulties regarding computational cost and mass and energy conservation. Here, we develop our own finite-element software to explore numerical approaches and enable us to overcome these difficulties. We illustrate the capability of these approaches on established numerical benchmarks.
Matthias Tonnel, Anna Wirbel, Felix Oesterle, and Jan-Thomas Fischer
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7013–7035, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7013-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7013-2023, 2023
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Avaframe - the open avalanche framework - provides open-source tools to simulate and investigate snow avalanches. It is utilized for multiple purposes, the two main applications being hazard mapping and scientific research of snow processes. We present the theory, conversion to a computer model, and testing for one of the core modules used for simulations of a particular type of avalanche, the so-called dense-flow avalanches. Tests check and confirm the applicability of the utilized method.
Jordi Bolibar, Facundo Sapienza, Fabien Maussion, Redouane Lguensat, Bert Wouters, and Fernando Pérez
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6671–6687, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6671-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6671-2023, 2023
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We developed a new modelling framework combining numerical methods with machine learning. Using this approach, we focused on understanding how ice moves within glaciers, and we successfully learnt a prescribed law describing ice movement for 17 glaciers worldwide as a proof of concept. Our framework has the potential to discover important laws governing glacier processes, aiding our understanding of glacier physics and their contribution to water resources and sea-level rise.
Prateek Gantayat, Alison F. Banwell, Amber A. Leeson, James M. Lea, Dorthe Petersen, Noel Gourmelen, and Xavier Fettweis
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5803–5823, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5803-2023, 2023
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We developed a new supraglacial hydrology model for the Greenland Ice Sheet. This model simulates surface meltwater routing, meltwater drainage, supraglacial lake (SGL) overflow, and formation of lake ice. The model was able to reproduce 80 % of observed lake locations and provides a good match between the observed and modelled temporal evolution of SGLs.
Kevin Hank, Lev Tarasov, and Elisa Mantelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5627–5652, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5627-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5627-2023, 2023
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Physically meaningful modeling of geophysical system instabilities is numerically challenging, given the potential effects of purely numerical artifacts. Here we explore the sensitivity of ice stream surge activation to numerical and physical model aspects. We find that surge characteristics exhibit a resolution dependency but converge at higher horizontal grid resolutions and are significantly affected by the incorporation of bed thermal and sub-glacial hydrology models.
Yannic Fischler, Thomas Kleiner, Christian Bischof, Jeremie Schmiedel, Roiy Sayag, Raban Emunds, Lennart Frederik Oestreich, and Angelika Humbert
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5305–5322, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5305-2023, 2023
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Water underneath ice sheets affects the motion of glaciers. This study presents a newly developed code, CUAS-MPI, that simulates subglacial hydrology. It is designed for supercomputers and is hence a parallelized code. We measure the performance of this code for simulations of the entire Greenland Ice Sheet and find that the code works efficiently. Moreover, we validated the code to ensure the correctness of the solution. CUAS-MPI opens new possibilities for simulations of ice sheet hydrology.
Julia Kaltenborn, Amy R. Macfarlane, Viviane Clay, and Martin Schneebeli
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4521–4550, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4521-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4521-2023, 2023
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Snow layer segmentation and snow grain classification are essential diagnostic tasks for cryospheric applications. A SnowMicroPen (SMP) can be used to that end; however, the manual classification of its profiles becomes infeasible for large datasets. Here, we evaluate how well machine learning models automate this task. Of the 14 models trained on the MOSAiC SMP dataset, the long short-term memory model performed the best. The findings presented here facilitate and accelerate SMP data analysis.
Johannes Aschauer, Adrien Michel, Tobias Jonas, and Christoph Marty
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4063–4081, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4063-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4063-2023, 2023
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Snow water equivalent is the mass of water stored in a snowpack. Based on exponential settling functions, the empirical snow density model SWE2HS is presented to convert time series of daily snow water equivalent into snow depth. The model has been calibrated with data from Switzerland and validated with independent data from the European Alps. A reference implementation of SWE2HS is available as a Python package.
Eric Keenan, Nander Wever, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3203–3219, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3203-2023, 2023
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Ice sheets gain mass via snowfall. However, snowfall is redistributed by the wind, resulting in accumulation differences of up to a factor of 5 over distances as short as 5 km. These differences complicate estimates of ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. For this reason, we have developed a new model for estimating wind-driven snow redistribution on ice sheets. We show that, over Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica, the model improves estimates of snow accumulation variability.
Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Johanna Scheer, Kristoffer Aalstad, Juditha Aga, Nitin Chaudhary, Bernd Etzelmüller, Simon Filhol, Andreas Kääb, Cas Renette, Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Robin B. Zweigel, Léo Martin, Sarah Morard, Matan Ben-Asher, Michael Angelopoulos, Julia Boike, Brian Groenke, Frederieke Miesner, Jan Nitzbon, Paul Overduin, Simone M. Stuenzi, and Moritz Langer
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2607–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023, 2023
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The CryoGrid community model is a new tool for simulating ground temperatures and the water and ice balance in cold regions. It is a modular design, which makes it possible to test different schemes to simulate, for example, permafrost ground in an efficient way. The model contains tools to simulate frozen and unfrozen ground, snow, glaciers, and other massive ice bodies, as well as water bodies.
Alex S. Gardner, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, and Eric Larour
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2277–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2277-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2277-2023, 2023
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This is the first description of the open-source Glacier Energy and Mass Balance (GEMB) model. GEMB models the ice sheet and glacier surface–atmospheric energy and mass exchange, as well as the firn state. The model is evaluated against the current state of the art and in situ observations and is shown to perform well.
Yafei Nie, Chengkun Li, Martin Vancoppenolle, Bin Cheng, Fabio Boeira Dias, Xianqing Lv, and Petteri Uotila
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1395–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1395-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1395-2023, 2023
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State-of-the-art Earth system models simulate the observed sea ice extent relatively well, but this is often due to errors in the dynamic and other processes in the simulated sea ice changes cancelling each other out. We assessed the sensitivity of these processes simulated by the coupled ocean–sea ice model NEMO4.0-SI3 to 18 parameters. The performance of the model in simulating sea ice change processes was ultimately improved by adjusting the three identified key parameters.
Varun Sharma, Franziska Gerber, and Michael Lehning
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 719–749, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-719-2023, 2023
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Most current generation climate and weather models have a relatively simplistic description of snow and snow–atmosphere interaction. One reason for this is the belief that including an advanced snow model would make the simulations too computationally demanding. In this study, we bring together two state-of-the-art models for atmosphere (WRF) and snow cover (SNOWPACK) and highlight both the feasibility and necessity of such coupled models to explore underexplored phenomena in the cryosphere.
Anne M. Felden, Daniel F. Martin, and Esmond G. Ng
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 407–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-407-2023, 2023
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We present and validate a novel subglacial hydrology model, SUHMO, based on an adaptive mesh refinement framework. We propose the addition of a pseudo-diffusion to recover the wall melting in channels. Computational performance analysis demonstrates the efficiency of adaptive mesh refinement on large-scale hydrologic problems. The adaptive mesh refinement approach will eventually enable better ice bed boundary conditions for ice sheet simulations at a reasonable computational cost.
Dalei Hao, Gautam Bisht, Karl Rittger, Edward Bair, Cenlin He, Huilin Huang, Cheng Dang, Timbo Stillinger, Yu Gu, Hailong Wang, Yun Qian, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 75–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-75-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-75-2023, 2023
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Snow with the highest albedo of land surface plays a vital role in Earth’s surface energy budget and water cycle. This study accounts for the impacts of snow grain shape and mixing state of light-absorbing particles with snow on snow albedo in the E3SM land model. The findings advance our understanding of the role of snow grain shape and mixing state of LAP–snow in land surface processes and offer guidance for improving snow simulations and radiative forcing estimates in Earth system models.
Esteban Alonso-González, Kristoffer Aalstad, Mohamed Wassim Baba, Jesús Revuelto, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, Joel Fiddes, Richard Essery, and Simon Gascoin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9127–9155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9127-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9127-2022, 2022
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Snow cover plays an important role in many processes, but its monitoring is a challenging task. The alternative is usually to simulate the snowpack, and to improve these simulations one of the most promising options is to fuse simulations with available observations (data assimilation). In this paper we present MuSA, a data assimilation tool which facilitates the implementation of snow monitoring initiatives, allowing the assimilation of a wide variety of remotely sensed snow cover information.
Vincent Verjans, Alexander A. Robel, Helene Seroussi, Lizz Ultee, and Andrew F. Thompson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8269–8293, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, 2022
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We describe the development of the first large-scale ice sheet model that accounts for stochasticity in a range of processes. Stochasticity allows the impacts of inherently uncertain processes on ice sheets to be represented. This includes climatic uncertainty, as the climate is inherently chaotic. Furthermore, stochastic capabilities also encompass poorly constrained glaciological processes that display strong variability at fine spatiotemporal scales. We present the model and test experiments.
Max Brils, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel van den Broeke
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7121–7138, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, 2022
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Firn covers the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and can temporarily prevent mass loss. Here, we present the latest version of our firn model, IMAU-FDM, with an application to the GrIS. We improved the density of fallen snow, the firn densification rate and the firn's thermal conductivity. This leads to a higher air content and 10 m temperatures. Furthermore we investigate three case studies and find that the updated model shows greater variability and an increased sensitivity in surface elevation.
Océane Hames, Mahdi Jafari, David Nicholas Wagner, Ian Raphael, David Clemens-Sewall, Chris Polashenski, Matthew D. Shupe, Martin Schneebeli, and Michael Lehning
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6429–6449, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6429-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6429-2022, 2022
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This paper presents an Eulerian–Lagrangian snow transport model implemented in the fluid dynamics software OpenFOAM, which we call snowBedFoam 1.0. We apply this model to reproduce snow deposition on a piece of ridged Arctic sea ice, which was produced during the MOSAiC expedition through scan measurements. The model appears to successfully reproduce the enhanced snow accumulation and deposition patterns, although some quantitative uncertainties were shown.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, Thomas J. Reerink, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5667–5688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, 2022
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The rate at which marine ice sheets such as the West Antarctic ice sheet will retreat in a warming climate and ocean is still uncertain. Numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physical equations that describe the way glaciers and ice sheets deform and flow, have been substantially improved in recent years. Here we present the results of several years of work on IMAU-ICE, an ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity, which can be used to study ice sheets of both the past and the future.
Abby C. Lute, John Abatzoglou, and Timothy Link
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5045–5071, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5045-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5045-2022, 2022
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We developed a snow model that can be used to quantify snowpack over large areas with a high degree of spatial detail. We ran the model over the western United States, creating a snow and climate dataset for three time periods. Compared to observations of snowpack, the model captured the key aspects of snow across time and space. The model and dataset will be useful in understanding historical and future changes in snowpack, with relevance to water resources, agriculture, and ecosystems.
Francesco Avanzi, Simone Gabellani, Fabio Delogu, Francesco Silvestro, Edoardo Cremonese, Umberto Morra di Cella, Sara Ratto, and Hervé Stevenin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4853–4879, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4853-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4853-2022, 2022
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Knowing in real time how much snow and glacier ice has accumulated across the landscape has significant implications for water-resource management and flood control. This paper presents a computer model – S3M – allowing scientists and decision makers to predict snow and ice accumulation during winter and the subsequent melt during spring and summer. S3M has been employed for real-world flood forecasting since the early 2000s but is here being made open source for the first time.
Adrian K. Turner, William H. Lipscomb, Elizabeth C. Hunke, Douglas W. Jacobsen, Nicole Jeffery, Darren Engwirda, Todd D. Ringler, and Jonathan D. Wolfe
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3721–3751, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3721-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3721-2022, 2022
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We present the dynamical core of the MPAS-Seaice model, which uses a mesh consisting of a Voronoi tessellation with polygonal cells. Such a mesh allows variable mesh resolution in different parts of the domain and the focusing of computational resources in regions of interest. We describe the velocity solver and tracer transport schemes used and examine errors generated by the model in both idealized and realistic test cases and examine the computational efficiency of the model.
Noah D. Smith, Eleanor J. Burke, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Inge H. J. Althuizen, Julia Boike, Casper Tai Christiansen, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Friborg, Hanna Lee, Heather Rumbold, Rachael H. Turton, Sebastian Westermann, and Sarah E. Chadburn
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3603–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, 2022
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The Arctic has large areas of small mounds that are caused by ice lifting up the soil. Snow blown by wind gathers in hollows next to these mounds, insulating them in winter. The hollows tend to be wetter, and thus the soil absorbs more heat in summer. The warm wet soil in the hollows decomposes, releasing methane. We have made a model of this, and we have tested how it behaves and whether it looks like sites in Scandinavia and Siberia. Sometimes we get more methane than a model without mounds.
Adrian K. Turner, Kara J. Peterson, and Dan Bolintineanu
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1953–1970, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1953-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1953-2022, 2022
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We developed a technique to remap sea ice tracer quantities between circular discrete element distributions. This is needed for a global discrete element method sea ice model being developed jointly by Los Alamos National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories that has the potential to better utilize newer supercomputers with graphics processing units and better represent sea ice dynamics. This new remapping technique ameliorates the effect of element distortion created by sea ice ridging.
Zhen Yin, Chen Zuo, Emma J. MacKie, and Jef Caers
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1477–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1477-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1477-2022, 2022
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We provide a multiple-point geostatistics approach to probabilistically learn from training images to fill large-scale irregular geophysical data gaps. With a repository of global topographic training images, our approach models high-resolution basal topography and quantifies the geospatial uncertainty. It generated high-resolution topographic realizations to investigate the impact of basal topographic uncertainty on critical subglacial hydrological flow patterns associated with ice velocity.
Yu Yan, Wei Gu, Andrea M. U. Gierisch, Yingjun Xu, and Petteri Uotila
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1269–1288, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1269-2022, 2022
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In this study, we developed NEMO-Bohai, an ocean–ice model for the Bohai Sea, China. This study presented the scientific design and technical choices of the parameterizations for the NEMO-Bohai model. The model was calibrated and evaluated with in situ and satellite observations of ocean and sea ice. NEMO-Bohai is intended to be a valuable tool for long-term ocean and ice simulations and climate change studies.
Chao-Yuan Yang, Jiping Liu, and Dake Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1155–1176, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1155-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1155-2022, 2022
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We present an improved coupled modeling system for Arctic sea ice prediction. We perform Arctic sea ice prediction experiments with improved/updated physical parameterizations, which show better skill in predicting sea ice state as well as atmospheric and oceanic state in the Arctic compared with its predecessor. The improved model also shows extended predictive skill of Arctic sea ice after the summer season. This provides an added value of this prediction system for decision-making.
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