Articles | Volume 18, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-885-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-885-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Methods for assessment of models
| 
14 Feb 2025
Methods for assessment of models |
| 14 Feb 2025
| 14 Feb 2025
Tuning parameters of a sea ice model using machine learning
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre, Jahnebakken 3, 5007, Bergen, Norway
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre, Jahnebakken 3, 5007, Bergen, Norway
Einar Ólason
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre, Jahnebakken 3, 5007, Bergen, Norway
Related authors
Anton Korosov, Léo Edel, Heather Regan, Thomas Lavergne, Emily Jane Down, and Signe Aaboe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-477, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-477, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new long-term record of Arctic sea ice age spanning from 1991 to 2024. Using satellite data and a new tracking method, it maps fractions of sea ice from first- to sixth-year and includes uncertainty estimates. The dataset shows a decline in older ice and more first-year ice, it agrees well with buoy data, and supports Arctic monitoring, climate research, navigation, and model evaluation.
Léo Edel, Jiping Xie, Anton Korosov, Julien Brajard, and Laurent Bertino
The Cryosphere, 19, 731–752, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-731-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-731-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a new method to estimate Arctic sea ice thickness from 1992 to 2010 using a combination of machine learning and data assimilation. By training a machine learning model on data from 2011 to 2022, past errors in sea ice thickness can be corrected, leading to improved estimations. This approach provides insights into historical changes in sea ice thickness, showing a notable decline from 1992 to 2022, and offers a valuable resource for future studies.
Einar Ólason, Guillaume Boutin, Timothy Williams, Anton Korosov, Heather Regan, Jonathan Rheinlænder, Pierre Rampal, Daniela Flocco, Abdoulaye Samaké, Richard Davy, Timothy Spain, and Sean Chua
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3521, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3521, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces a new version of the neXtSIM sea-ice model. NeXtSIM is unique among sea-ice models in how it represents sea-ice dynamics, focusing on features such as cracks and ridges and how these impact interactions between the atmosphere and ocean where sea ice is present. The new version introduces some physical parameterisations and model options detailed and explained in the paper. Following the paper's publication, the neXtSIM code will be released publicly for the first time.
Jean Rabault, Trygve Halsne, Ana Carrasco, Anton Korosov, Joey Voermans, Patrik Bohlinger, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Malte Müller, Øyvind Breivik, Takehiko Nose, Gaute Hope, Fabrice Collard, Sylvain Herlédan, Tsubasa Kodaira, Nick Hughes, Qin Zhang, Kai Haakon Christensen, Alexander Babanin, Lars Willas Dreyer, Cyril Palerme, Lotfi Aouf, Konstantinos Christakos, Atle Jensen, Johannes Röhrs, Aleksey Marchenko, Graig Sutherland, Trygve Kvåle Løken, and Takuji Waseda
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2401.07619, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2401.07619, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We observe strongly modulated waves-in-ice significant wave height using buoys deployed East of Svalbard. We show that these observations likely cannot be explained by wave-current interaction or tide-induced modulation alone. We also demonstrate a strong correlation between the waves height modulation, and the rate of sea ice convergence. Therefore, our data suggest that the rate of sea ice convergence and divergence may modulate wave in ice energy dissipation.
Andreas Stokholm, Jørgen Buus-Hinkler, Tore Wulf, Anton Korosov, Roberto Saldo, Leif Toudal Pedersen, David Arthurs, Ionut Dragan, Iacopo Modica, Juan Pedro, Annekatrien Debien, Xinwei Chen, Muhammed Patel, Fernando Jose Pena Cantu, Javier Noa Turnes, Jinman Park, Linlin Xu, Katharine Andrea Scott, David Anthony Clausi, Yuan Fang, Mingzhe Jiang, Saeid Taleghanidoozdoozan, Neil Curtis Brubacher, Armina Soleymani, Zacharie Gousseau, Michał Smaczny, Patryk Kowalski, Jacek Komorowski, David Rijlaarsdam, Jan Nicolaas van Rijn, Jens Jakobsen, Martin Samuel James Rogers, Nick Hughes, Tom Zagon, Rune Solberg, Nicolas Longépé, and Matilde Brandt Kreiner
The Cryosphere, 18, 3471–3494, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3471-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3471-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The AutoICE challenge encouraged the development of deep learning models to map multiple aspects of sea ice – the amount of sea ice in an area and the age and ice floe size – using multiple sources of satellite and weather data across the Canadian and Greenlandic Arctic. Professionally drawn operational sea ice charts were used as a reference. A total of 179 students and sea ice and AI specialists participated and produced maps in broad agreement with the sea ice charts.
Anton Korosov, Pierre Rampal, Yue Ying, Einar Ólason, and Timothy Williams
The Cryosphere, 17, 4223–4240, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4223-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4223-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is possible to compute sea ice motion from satellite observations and detect areas where ice converges (moves together), forms ice ridges or diverges (moves apart) and opens leads. However, it is difficult to predict the exact motion of sea ice and position of ice ridges or leads using numerical models. We propose a new method to initialise a numerical model from satellite observations to improve the accuracy of the forecasted position of leads and ridges for safer navigation.
Heather Regan, Pierre Rampal, Einar Ólason, Guillaume Boutin, and Anton Korosov
The Cryosphere, 17, 1873–1893, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Multiyear ice (MYI), sea ice that survives the summer, is more resistant to changes than younger ice in the Arctic, so it is a good indicator of sea ice resilience. We use a model with a new way of tracking MYI to assess the contribution of different processes affecting MYI. We find two important years for MYI decline: 2007, when dynamics are important, and 2012, when melt is important. These affect MYI volume and area in different ways, which is important for the interpretation of observations.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Timothy Williams, Anton Korosov, Pierre Rampal, and Einar Ólason
The Cryosphere, 15, 3207–3227, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
neXtSIM (neXt-generation Sea Ice Model) includes a novel and extremely realistic way of modelling sea ice dynamics – i.e. how the sea ice moves and deforms in response to the drag from winds and ocean currents. It has been developed over the last few years for a variety of applications, but this paper represents its first demonstration in a forecast context. We present results for the time period from November 2018 to June 2020 and show that it agrees well with satellite observations.
Marcel Kleinherenbrink, Anton Korosov, Thomas Newman, Andreas Theodosiou, Alexander S. Komarov, Yuanhao Li, Gert Mulder, Pierre Rampal, Julienne Stroeve, and Paco Lopez-Dekker
The Cryosphere, 15, 3101–3118, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3101-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3101-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Harmony is one of the Earth Explorer 10 candidates that has the chance of being selected for launch in 2028. The mission consists of two satellites that fly in formation with Sentinel-1D, which carries a side-looking radar system. By receiving Sentinel-1's signals reflected from the surface, Harmony is able to observe instantaneous elevation and two-dimensional velocity at the surface. As such, Harmony's data allow the retrieval of sea-ice drift and wave spectra in sea-ice-covered regions.
Anton Korosov, Léo Edel, Heather Regan, Thomas Lavergne, Emily Jane Down, and Signe Aaboe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-477, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-477, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new long-term record of Arctic sea ice age spanning from 1991 to 2024. Using satellite data and a new tracking method, it maps fractions of sea ice from first- to sixth-year and includes uncertainty estimates. The dataset shows a decline in older ice and more first-year ice, it agrees well with buoy data, and supports Arctic monitoring, climate research, navigation, and model evaluation.
Laurent Bertino, Patrick Heimbach, Ed Blockley, and Einar Ólason
State Planet, 5-opsr, 14, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-14-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-14-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts of sea ice are in high demand in the polar regions, and they are also quickly improving and becoming more easily accessible to non-experts. We provide here a brief status of the short-term forecasting services – typically 10 d ahead – and an outlook of their upcoming developments.
Léo Edel, Jiping Xie, Anton Korosov, Julien Brajard, and Laurent Bertino
The Cryosphere, 19, 731–752, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-731-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-731-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a new method to estimate Arctic sea ice thickness from 1992 to 2010 using a combination of machine learning and data assimilation. By training a machine learning model on data from 2011 to 2022, past errors in sea ice thickness can be corrected, leading to improved estimations. This approach provides insights into historical changes in sea ice thickness, showing a notable decline from 1992 to 2022, and offers a valuable resource for future studies.
Einar Ólason, Guillaume Boutin, Timothy Williams, Anton Korosov, Heather Regan, Jonathan Rheinlænder, Pierre Rampal, Daniela Flocco, Abdoulaye Samaké, Richard Davy, Timothy Spain, and Sean Chua
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3521, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3521, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces a new version of the neXtSIM sea-ice model. NeXtSIM is unique among sea-ice models in how it represents sea-ice dynamics, focusing on features such as cracks and ridges and how these impact interactions between the atmosphere and ocean where sea ice is present. The new version introduces some physical parameterisations and model options detailed and explained in the paper. Following the paper's publication, the neXtSIM code will be released publicly for the first time.
Jean Rabault, Trygve Halsne, Ana Carrasco, Anton Korosov, Joey Voermans, Patrik Bohlinger, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Malte Müller, Øyvind Breivik, Takehiko Nose, Gaute Hope, Fabrice Collard, Sylvain Herlédan, Tsubasa Kodaira, Nick Hughes, Qin Zhang, Kai Haakon Christensen, Alexander Babanin, Lars Willas Dreyer, Cyril Palerme, Lotfi Aouf, Konstantinos Christakos, Atle Jensen, Johannes Röhrs, Aleksey Marchenko, Graig Sutherland, Trygve Kvåle Løken, and Takuji Waseda
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2401.07619, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2401.07619, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We observe strongly modulated waves-in-ice significant wave height using buoys deployed East of Svalbard. We show that these observations likely cannot be explained by wave-current interaction or tide-induced modulation alone. We also demonstrate a strong correlation between the waves height modulation, and the rate of sea ice convergence. Therefore, our data suggest that the rate of sea ice convergence and divergence may modulate wave in ice energy dissipation.
Simon Driscoll, Alberto Carrassi, Julien Brajard, Laurent Bertino, Einar Ólason, Marc Bocquet, and Amos Lawless
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2476, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2476, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The formation and evolution of sea ice melt ponds (ponds of melted water) are complex, insufficiently understood and represented in models with considerable uncertainty. These uncertain representations are not traditionally included in climate models potentially causing the known underestimation of sea ice loss in climate models. Our work creates the first observationally based machine learning model of melt ponds that is also a ready and viable candidate to be included in climate models.
Laurent Brodeau, Pierre Rampal, Einar Ólason, and Véronique Dansereau
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6051–6082, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new brittle sea ice rheology, BBM, has been implemented into the sea ice component of NEMO. We describe how a new spatial discretization framework was introduced to achieve this. A set of idealized and realistic ocean and sea ice simulations of the Arctic have been performed using BBM and the standard viscous–plastic rheology of NEMO. When compared to satellite data, our simulations show that our implementation of BBM leads to a fairly good representation of sea ice deformations.
Andreas Stokholm, Jørgen Buus-Hinkler, Tore Wulf, Anton Korosov, Roberto Saldo, Leif Toudal Pedersen, David Arthurs, Ionut Dragan, Iacopo Modica, Juan Pedro, Annekatrien Debien, Xinwei Chen, Muhammed Patel, Fernando Jose Pena Cantu, Javier Noa Turnes, Jinman Park, Linlin Xu, Katharine Andrea Scott, David Anthony Clausi, Yuan Fang, Mingzhe Jiang, Saeid Taleghanidoozdoozan, Neil Curtis Brubacher, Armina Soleymani, Zacharie Gousseau, Michał Smaczny, Patryk Kowalski, Jacek Komorowski, David Rijlaarsdam, Jan Nicolaas van Rijn, Jens Jakobsen, Martin Samuel James Rogers, Nick Hughes, Tom Zagon, Rune Solberg, Nicolas Longépé, and Matilde Brandt Kreiner
The Cryosphere, 18, 3471–3494, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3471-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3471-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The AutoICE challenge encouraged the development of deep learning models to map multiple aspects of sea ice – the amount of sea ice in an area and the age and ice floe size – using multiple sources of satellite and weather data across the Canadian and Greenlandic Arctic. Professionally drawn operational sea ice charts were used as a reference. A total of 179 students and sea ice and AI specialists participated and produced maps in broad agreement with the sea ice charts.
Charlotte Durand, Tobias Sebastian Finn, Alban Farchi, Marc Bocquet, Guillaume Boutin, and Einar Ólason
The Cryosphere, 18, 1791–1815, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on predicting Arctic-wide sea-ice thickness using surrogate modeling with deep learning. The model has a predictive power of 12 h up to 6 months. For this forecast horizon, persistence and daily climatology are systematically outperformed, a result of learned thermodynamics and advection. Consequently, surrogate modeling with deep learning proves to be effective at capturing the complex behavior of sea ice.
Anton Korosov, Pierre Rampal, Yue Ying, Einar Ólason, and Timothy Williams
The Cryosphere, 17, 4223–4240, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4223-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4223-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is possible to compute sea ice motion from satellite observations and detect areas where ice converges (moves together), forms ice ridges or diverges (moves apart) and opens leads. However, it is difficult to predict the exact motion of sea ice and position of ice ridges or leads using numerical models. We propose a new method to initialise a numerical model from satellite observations to improve the accuracy of the forecasted position of leads and ridges for safer navigation.
Heather Regan, Pierre Rampal, Einar Ólason, Guillaume Boutin, and Anton Korosov
The Cryosphere, 17, 1873–1893, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Multiyear ice (MYI), sea ice that survives the summer, is more resistant to changes than younger ice in the Arctic, so it is a good indicator of sea ice resilience. We use a model with a new way of tracking MYI to assess the contribution of different processes affecting MYI. We find two important years for MYI decline: 2007, when dynamics are important, and 2012, when melt is important. These affect MYI volume and area in different ways, which is important for the interpretation of observations.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Guillaume Boutin, Einar Ólason, Pierre Rampal, Heather Regan, Camille Lique, Claude Talandier, Laurent Brodeau, and Robert Ricker
The Cryosphere, 17, 617–638, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-617-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice cover in the Arctic is full of cracks, which we call leads. We suspect that these leads play a role for atmosphere–ocean interactions in polar regions, but their importance remains challenging to estimate. We use a new ocean–sea ice model with an original way of representing sea ice dynamics to estimate their impact on winter sea ice production. This model successfully represents sea ice evolution from 2000 to 2018, and we find that about 30 % of ice production takes place in leads.
Timothy Williams, Anton Korosov, Pierre Rampal, and Einar Ólason
The Cryosphere, 15, 3207–3227, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
neXtSIM (neXt-generation Sea Ice Model) includes a novel and extremely realistic way of modelling sea ice dynamics – i.e. how the sea ice moves and deforms in response to the drag from winds and ocean currents. It has been developed over the last few years for a variety of applications, but this paper represents its first demonstration in a forecast context. We present results for the time period from November 2018 to June 2020 and show that it agrees well with satellite observations.
Marcel Kleinherenbrink, Anton Korosov, Thomas Newman, Andreas Theodosiou, Alexander S. Komarov, Yuanhao Li, Gert Mulder, Pierre Rampal, Julienne Stroeve, and Paco Lopez-Dekker
The Cryosphere, 15, 3101–3118, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3101-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3101-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Harmony is one of the Earth Explorer 10 candidates that has the chance of being selected for launch in 2028. The mission consists of two satellites that fly in formation with Sentinel-1D, which carries a side-looking radar system. By receiving Sentinel-1's signals reflected from the surface, Harmony is able to observe instantaneous elevation and two-dimensional velocity at the surface. As such, Harmony's data allow the retrieval of sea-ice drift and wave spectra in sea-ice-covered regions.
Einar Ólason, Pierre Rampal, and Véronique Dansereau
The Cryosphere, 15, 1053–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1053-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1053-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the fractal properties observed in the pattern of the long, narrow openings that form in Arctic sea ice known as leads. We use statistical tools to explore the fractal properties of the lead fraction observed in satellite data and show that our sea-ice model neXtSIM displays the same behaviour. Building on this result we then show that the pattern of heat loss from ocean to atmosphere in the model displays similar fractal properties, stemming from the fractal properties of the leads.
Guillaume Boutin, Timothy Williams, Pierre Rampal, Einar Olason, and Camille Lique
The Cryosphere, 15, 431–457, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-431-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-431-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigate the interactions of surface ocean waves with sea ice. We focus on the evolution of sea ice after it has been fragmented by the waves. Fragmented sea ice is expected to experience less resistance to deformation. We reproduce this evolution using a new coupling framework between a wave model and the recently developed sea ice model neXtSIM. We find that waves can significantly increase the mobility of compact sea ice over wide areas in the wake of storm events.
Cited articles
Bouillon, S. and Rampal, P.: Presentation of the dynamical core of neXtSIM, a new sea ice model, Ocean Model., 91, 23–37, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.04.005, 2015. a
Boutin, G., Williams, T., Horvat, C., and Brodeau, L.: Modelling the Arctic wave-affected marginal ice zone: a comparison with ICESat-2 observations, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 380, 20210262, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2021.0262, 2022. a
Boutin, G., Ólason, E., Rampal, P., Regan, H., Lique, C., Talandier, C., Brodeau, L., and Ricker, R.: Arctic sea ice mass balance in a new coupled ice–ocean model using a brittle rheology framework, The Cryosphere, 17, 617–638, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-617-2023, 2023. a
Brodeau, L., Rampal, P., Ólason, E., and Dansereau, V.: Implementation of a brittle sea ice rheology in an Eulerian, finite-difference, C-grid modeling framework: impact on the simulated deformation of sea ice in the Arctic, Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6051–6082, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6051-2024, 2024. a
Chen, Y., Smith, P., Carrassi, A., Pasmans, I., Bertino, L., Bocquet, M., Finn, T. S., Rampal, P., and Dansereau, V.: Multivariate state and parameter estimation with data assimilation applied to sea-ice models using a Maxwell elasto-brittle rheology, The Cryosphere, 18, 2381–2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2381-2024, 2024. a
Dansereau, V., Weiss, J., Saramito, P., and Lattes, P.: A Maxwell elasto-brittle rheology for sea ice modelling, The Cryosphere, 10, 1339–1359, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1339-2016, 2016. a
Dierking, W., Stern, H. L., and Hutchings, J. K.: Estimating statistical errors in retrievals of ice velocity and deformation parameters from satellite images and buoy arrays, The Cryosphere, 14, 2999–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2999-2020, 2020. a
Girard, L., Bouillon, S., Weiss, J., Amitrano, D., Fichefet, T., and Legat, V.: A new modeling framework for sea-ice mechanics based on elasto-brittle rheology, Ann. Glaciol., 52, 123–132, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756411795931499, 2011. a
Haralick, R. M., Shanmugam, K., and Dinstein, I.: Textural Features for Image Classification, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, SMC-3, 610–621, https://doi.org/10.1109/TSMC.1973.4309314, 1973. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Hibler, W. D.: A dynamic thermodynamic sea ice model, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 9, 815–846, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1979)009<0815:adtsim>2.0.co;2, 1979. a, b
Hinton, G. E. and Salakhutdinov, R. R.: Reducing the Dimensionality of Data with Neural Networks, Science, 313, 504–507, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1127647, 2006. a, b
Hopkins, M. A.: Four stages of pressure ridging, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 103, 21883–21891, https://doi.org/10.1029/98JC01257, 1998. a, b
Hutter, N. and Losch, M.: Feature-based comparison of sea ice deformation in lead-permitting sea ice simulations, The Cryosphere, 14, 93–113, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-93-2020, 2020. a
Hutter, N., Zampieri, L., and Losch, M.: Leads and ridges in Arctic sea ice from RGPS data and a new tracking algorithm, The Cryosphere, 13, 627–645, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-627-2019, 2019. a, b
Kingma, D. P. and Ba, J.: Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization, ArXiv [preprint], https://arxiv.org/abs/1412.6980 (last access: 12 February 2025), 2017. a
Korosov, A.: Outputs of the next generation sea ice model (neXtSIM) for winter 2006–2007 saved for comparison with RGPS, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13302007, 2024a. a
Korosov, A.: NeXtSIM parameter tuning software, nextsimtuning-0.1, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13302227, 2024b. a
Korosov, A.: Sea ice drift deformation analysis software, pysida-0.1, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13301869, 2024c. a
Korosov, A., Rampal, P., Ying, Y., Ólason, E., and Williams, T.: Towards improving short-term sea ice predictability using deformation observations, The Cryosphere, 17, 4223–4240, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4223-2023, 2023. a
Kwok, R.: Contrasts in sea ice deformation and production in the Arctic seasonal and perennial ice zones, J. Geophys. Res., 111, C11S22, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005jc003246, 2006. a
Kwok, R.: RADARSAT-1 data 1997 (CSA), Dataset: Lagrangian Sea-Ice Kinematics, ASF DAAC [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/SSMPINYI15UU, 2014. a
Kwok, R., Hunke, E. C., Maslowski, W., Menemenlis, D., and Zhang, J.: Variability of sea ice simulations assessed with RGPS kinematics, J. Geophys. Res., 113, C11012, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JC004783, 2008. a
Lehoucq, R., Weiss, J., Dubrulle, B., Amon, A., Le Bouil, A., Crassous, J., Amitrano, D., and Graner, F.: Analysis of image vs. position, scale and direction reveals pattern texture anisotropy, Front. Phys., 2, https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2014.00084, 2015. a
Marsan, D. and Weiss, J.: Space/time coupling in brittle deformation at geophysical scales, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 296, 353–359, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2010.05.019, 2010. a
Massonnet, F., Goosse, H., Fichefet, T., and Counillon, F.: Calibration of sea ice dynamic parameters in an ocean-sea ice model using an ensemble Kalman filter, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 119, 4168–4184, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013jc009705, 2014. a
McKay, M. D., Beckman, R. J., and Conover, W. J.: A Comparison of Three Methods for Selecting Values of Input Variables in the Analysis of Output from a Computer Code, Technometrics, 21, 239–245, https://doi.org/10.2307/1268522, 1979. a
Mellor, M.: Mechanical behavior of sea ice, chap. 2, pp. 165–281, NATO ASI Series, Springer US, Boston, MA, ISBN 978-1-4899-5352-0, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-5352-0_3, 1986. a
Ólason, E., Boutin, G., Korosov, A., Rampal, P., Williams, T., Kimmritz, M., Dansereau, V., and Samaké, A.: A new brittle rheology and numerical framework for large-scale sea-ice models, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 14, e2021MS002685, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ms002685, 2022. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k
Panteleev, G., Yaremchuk, M., Stroh, J. N., Francis, O. P., and Allard, R.: Parameter optimization in sea ice models with elastic–viscoplastic rheology, The Cryosphere, 14, 4427–4451, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4427-2020, 2020. a
Panteleev, G., Yaremchuk, M., and Francis, O.: Reconstruction of the Rheological Parameters in a Sea Ice Model with Viscoplastic Rheology, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 40, 141–157, https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-21-0158.1, 2023. a
Park, J.-W., Korosov, A. A., Babiker, M., Won, J.-S., Hansen, M. W., and Kim, H.-C.: Classification of sea ice types in Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar images, The Cryosphere, 14, 2629–2645, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2629-2020, 2020. a
Rampal, P., Bouillon, S., Ólason, E., and Morlighem, M.: neXtSIM: a new Lagrangian sea ice model, The Cryosphere, 10, 1055–1073, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1055-2016, 2016. a
Rampal, P., Dansereau, V., Olason, E., Bouillon, S., Williams, T., Korosov, A., and Samaké, A.: On the multi-fractal scaling properties of sea ice deformation, The Cryosphere, 13, 2457–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2457-2019, 2019. a
Regan, H., Rampal, P., Ólason, E., Boutin, G., and Korosov, A.: Modelling the evolution of Arctic multiyear sea ice over 2000–2018, The Cryosphere, 17, 1873–1893, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1873-2023, 2023. a
Sakov, P., Counillon, F., Bertino, L., Lisæter, K. A., Oke, P. R., and Korablev, A.: TOPAZ4: an ocean-sea ice data assimilation system for the North Atlantic and Arctic, Ocean Sci., 8, 633–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-8-633-2012, 2012. a
Santana, R., Boutin, G., Horvat, C., Ólason, E., Williams, T., and Rampal, P.: Modelling Antarctic sea ice variability using a brittle rheology, Zenodo [conference paper], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10637222, 2024. a
Schulson, E. M., Fortt, A. L., Iliescu, D., and Renshaw, C. E.: Failure envelope of first-year Arctic sea ice: The role of friction in compressive fracture, J. Geophys. Res., 111, C11S25, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JC003235, 2006. a
Tsamados, M., Feltham, D. L., and Wilchinsky, A. V.: Impact of a new anisotropic rheology on simulations of Arctic sea ice, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118, 91–107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012jc007990, 2013. a
van der Walt, S., Schönberger, J., Nunez-Iglesias, J., Boulogne, F., Warner, J., Yager, N., Gouillart, E., and Yu, T.: scikit-image: image processing in Python, PeerJ, 2, e453, https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.453, 2014. a
Weiss, J. and Schulson, E. M.: Coulombic faulting from the grain scale to the geophysical scale: lessons from ice, J. Phys. D, 42, 214017, https://doi.org/10.1088/0022-3727/42/21/214017, 2009. a
Wilchinsky, A. V. and Feltham, D. L.: A continuum anisotropic model of sea-ice dynamics, P. Roy. Soc. Lond. A, 460, 2105–2140, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2004.1282, 2004. a
Williams, T., Korosov, A., Rampal, P., and Ólason, E.: Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F, The Cryosphere, 15, 3207–3227, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021, 2021. a
Zakhvatkina, N., Korosov, A., Muckenhuber, S., Sandven, S., and Babiker, M.: Operational algorithm for ice–water classification on dual-polarized RADARSAT-2 images, The Cryosphere, 11, 33–46, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-33-2017, 2017. a, b
Zhang, Y.-F., Bitz, C. M., Anderson, J. L., Collins, N. S., Hoar, T. J., Raeder, K. D., and Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.: Estimating parameters in a sea ice model using an ensemble Kalman filter, The Cryosphere, 15, 1277–1284, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1277-2021, 2021. a
Zwally, H. J., Schutz, R., H., and D., and Dimarzio, J.: GLAS/ICESat L2 Sea Ice Altimetry Data, Boulder, Colorado USA, NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/ICESAT/GLAS/DATA210, 2014. a
Short summary
We have developed a new method to improve the accuracy of sea ice models, which predict how ice moves and deforms due to wind and ocean currents. Traditional models use parameters that are often poorly defined. The new approach uses machine learning to fine-tune these parameters by comparing simulated ice drift with satellite data. The method identifies optimal settings for the model by analysing patterns in ice deformation. This results in more accurate simulations of sea ice drift forecasting.
We have developed a new method to improve the accuracy of sea ice models, which predict how ice...
