Articles | Volume 17, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4791-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4791-2024
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
19 Jun 2024
Methods for assessment of models |  | 19 Jun 2024

Assessing effects of climate and technology uncertainties in large natural resource allocation problems

Jevgenijs Steinbuks, Yongyang Cai, Jonas Jaegermeyr, and Thomas W. Hertel

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Cited articles

Alexandratos, N.: Critical Evaluation of Selected Projections, in: Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy, edited by: Conforti, P., Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, 465–508, 2011. a
Alston, J. M. and Pardey, P. G.: Agricultural R&D, Food Prices, Poverty and Malnutrition Redux, Staff Paper P14-01, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics, 2014. a
Arrow, K. J.: Aspects of the Theory of Risk-Bearing, Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation, Helsinki, ISBN 0841020019, 1965. a
Babiker, M., Gurgel, A., Paltsev, S., and Reilly, J.: Forward-looking versus Recursive-dynamic Modeling in Climate Policy Analysis: A Comparison, Econ. Model., 26, 1341–1354, 2009. a
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This paper applies a cutting-edge numerical method, SCEQ, to show how uncertain climate change and technological progress affect the future utilization of the world's scarce land resources. The paper's key insight is to illustrate how much global cropland will expand when future crop yields are unknown. The study finds the range of outcomes for land use change to be smaller when using this novel method compared to existing deterministic models. 
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