Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 12
Articles | Volume 17, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4791-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4791-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 12
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
19 Jun 2024
Methods for assessment of models |  | 19 Jun 2024

Assessing effects of climate and technology uncertainties in large natural resource allocation problems

Jevgenijs Steinbuks, Yongyang Cai, Jonas Jaegermeyr, and Thomas W. Hertel

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Short summary
This paper applies a cutting-edge numerical method, SCEQ, to show how uncertain climate change and technological progress affect the future utilization of the world's scarce land resources. The paper's key insight is to illustrate how much global cropland will expand when future crop yields are unknown. The study finds the range of outcomes for land use change to be smaller when using this novel method compared to existing deterministic models. 
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