Articles | Volume 15, issue 20
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7641-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7641-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
20 Oct 2022
Development and technical paper |
| 20 Oct 2022
| 20 Oct 2022
A fast, single-iteration ensemble Kalman smoother for sequential data assimilation
Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Nevada, Reno, Reno, Nevada, USA
Marc Bocquet
CEREA, École des Ponts and EDF R&D, Île-de-France, France
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All scales of a dynamical physical process cannot be resolved accurately in a multiscale, geophysical model. The behavior of unresolved scales of motion are often parametrized by a random process to emulate their effects on the dynamically resolved variables, and this results in a random–dynamical model. We study how the choice of a numerical discretization of such a system affects the model forecast and estimation statistics, when the random–dynamical model is unbiased in its parametrization.
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Using the framework Lyapunov vectors, we analyze the asymptotic properties of ensemble based Kalman filters and how these are influenced by dynamical chaos, especially in the context of random model errors and small ensemble sizes. Particularly, we show a novel derivation of the evolution of forecast uncertainty for ensemble-based Kalman filters with weakly-nonlinear error growth, and discuss its impact for filter design in geophysical models.
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This paper focuses on predicting Arctic-wide sea-ice thickness using surrogate modeling with deep learning. The model has a predictive power of 12 h up to 6 months. For this forecast horizon, persistence and daily climatology are systematically outperformed, a result of learned thermodynamics and advection. Consequently, surrogate modeling with deep learning proves to be effective at capturing the complex behavior of sea ice.
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Our research presents an innovative approach to estimating power plant CO2 emissions from satellite images of the corresponding plumes such as those from the forthcoming CO2M satellite constellation. The exploitation of these images is challenging due to noise and meteorological uncertainties. To overcome these obstacles, we use a deep learning neural network trained on simulated CO2 images. Our method outperforms alternatives, providing a positive perspective for the analysis of CO2M images.
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2261, 2023
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We train neural networks as denoising diffusion models for state generation in the Lorenz 1963 system and demonstrate that they learn an internal representation of the system. We make use of this learned representation and the pre-trained model in two downstream tasks: surrogate modelling and ensemble generation. For both tasks, the diffusion model can outperform other more common approaches. Thus, we see a potential of representation learning with diffusion models for dynamical systems.
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We combine deep learning with a regional sea-ice model to correct model errors in the sea-ice dynamics of low-resolution forecasts towards high-resolution simulations. The combined model improves the forecast by up to 75 % and thereby surpasses the performance of persistence. As the error connection can additionally be used to analyse the shortcomings of the forecasts, this study highlights the potential of combined modelling for short-term sea-ice forecasting.
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Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3997–4016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3997-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3997-2023, 2023
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Monitoring of CO2 emissions is key to the development of reduction policies. Local emissions, from cities or power plants, may be estimated from CO2 plumes detected in satellite images. CO2 plumes generally have a weak signal and are partially concealed by highly variable background concentrations and instrument errors, which hampers their detection. To address this problem, we propose and apply deep learning methods to detect the contour of a plume in simulated CO2 satellite images.
Pierre J. Vanderbecken, Joffrey Dumont Le Brazidec, Alban Farchi, Marc Bocquet, Yelva Roustan, Élise Potier, and Grégoire Broquet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 1745–1766, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-1745-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-1745-2023, 2023
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Instruments dedicated to monitoring atmospheric gaseous compounds from space will provide images of urban-scale plumes. We discuss here the use of new metrics to compare observed plumes with model predictions that will be less sensitive to meteorology uncertainties. We have evaluated our metrics on diverse plumes and shown that by eliminating some aspects of the discrepancies, they are indeed less sensitive to meteorological variations.
Joffrey Dumont Le Brazidec, Marc Bocquet, Olivier Saunier, and Yelva Roustan
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1039–1052, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1039-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1039-2023, 2023
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When radionuclides are released into the atmosphere, the assessment of the consequences depends on the evaluation of the magnitude and temporal evolution of the release, which can be highly variable as in the case of Fukushima Daiichi.
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Joffrey Dumont Le Brazidec, Marc Bocquet, Olivier Saunier, and Yelva Roustan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13247–13267, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13247-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13247-2021, 2021
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The assessment of the environmental consequences of a radionuclide release depends on the estimation of its source. This paper aims to develop inverse Bayesian methods which combine transport models with measurements, in order to reconstruct the ensemble of possible sources.
Three methods to quantify uncertainties based on the definition of probability distributions and the physical models are proposed and evaluated for the case of 106Ru releases over Europe in 2017.
Colin Grudzien, Marc Bocquet, and Alberto Carrassi
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1903–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1903-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1903-2020, 2020
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Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 143–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-143-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-143-2019, 2019
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Julien Brajard, Alberto Carrassi, Marc Bocquet, and Laurent Bertino
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-136, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We explore the possibility of combining data assimilation with machine learning. We introduce a new hybrid method for a two-fold scope: (i) emulating hidden, possibly chaotic, dynamics and (ii) predicting its future states. Numerical experiments have been carried out using the chaotic Lorenz 96 model, proving both the convergence of the hybrid method and its statistical skills including short-term forecasting and emulation of the long-term dynamics.
Liza I. Díaz-Isaac, Thomas Lauvaux, Marc Bocquet, and Kenneth J. Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5695–5718, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5695-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5695-2019, 2019
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We demonstrate that transport model errors, one of the main contributors to the uncertainty in regional CO2 inversions, can be represented by a small-size ensemble carefully calibrated with meteorological data. Our results also confirm transport model errors represent a significant fraction of the model–data mismatch in CO2 mole fractions and hence in regional inverse CO2 fluxes.
Alban Farchi and Marc Bocquet
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 765–807, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-765-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-765-2018, 2018
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Data assimilation looks for an optimal way to learn from observations of a dynamical system to improve the quality of its predictions. The goal is to filter out the noise (both observation and model noise) to retrieve the true signal. Among all possible methods, particle filters are promising; the method is fast and elegant, and it allows for a Bayesian analysis. In this review paper, we discuss implementation techniques for (local) particle filters in high-dimensional systems.
Colin Grudzien, Alberto Carrassi, and Marc Bocquet
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 633–648, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-633-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-633-2018, 2018
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Using the framework Lyapunov vectors, we analyze the asymptotic properties of ensemble based Kalman filters and how these are influenced by dynamical chaos, especially in the context of random model errors and small ensemble sizes. Particularly, we show a novel derivation of the evolution of forecast uncertainty for ensemble-based Kalman filters with weakly-nonlinear error growth, and discuss its impact for filter design in geophysical models.
Olivier Pannekoucke, Marc Bocquet, and Richard Ménard
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 481–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-481-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-481-2018, 2018
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The forecast of weather prediction uncertainty is a real challenge and is crucial for risk management. However, uncertainty prediction is beyond the capacity of supercomputers, and improvements of the technology may not solve this issue. A new uncertainty prediction method is introduced which takes advantage of fluid equations to predict simple quantities which approximate real uncertainty but at a low numerical cost. A proof of concept is shown by an academic model derived from fluid dynamics.
Anthony Fillion, Marc Bocquet, and Serge Gratton
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 315–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-315-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-315-2018, 2018
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This study generalizes a paper by Pires et al. (1996) to state-of-the-art data assimilation techniques, such as the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS). We show that the longer the time window over which observations are assimilated, the better the accuracy of the IEnKS. Beyond a critical time length that we estimate, we show that this accuracy finally degrades. We show that the use of the quasi-static minimizations but generalized to the IEnKS yields a significantly improved accuracy.
J.-M. Haussaire and M. Bocquet
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 393–412, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-393-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-393-2016, 2016
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The focus is on the development of low-order models of atmospheric transport and chemistry and their use for data assimilation purposes. A new low-order coupled chemistry meteorology model is developed. It consists of the Lorenz40-variable model used as a wind field coupled with a simple ozone photochemistry module. Advanced ensemble variational methods are applied to this model to obtain insights on the use of data assimilation with coupled models, in an offline mode or in an online mode.
M. Bocquet, P. N. Raanes, and A. Hannart
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 22, 645–662, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-645-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-645-2015, 2015
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The popular data assimilation technique known as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) suffers from sampling errors due to the limited size of the ensemble. This deficiency is usually cured by inflating the sampled error covariances and by using localization. This paper further develops and discusses the finite-size EnKF, or EnKF-N, a variant of the EnKF that does not require inflation. It expands the use of the EnKF-N to a wider range of dynamical regimes.
M. Bocquet, H. Elbern, H. Eskes, M. Hirtl, R. Žabkar, G. R. Carmichael, J. Flemming, A. Inness, M. Pagowski, J. L. Pérez Camaño, P. E. Saide, R. San Jose, M. Sofiev, J. Vira, A. Baklanov, C. Carnevale, G. Grell, and C. Seigneur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5325–5358, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5325-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5325-2015, 2015
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Data assimilation is used in atmospheric chemistry models to improve air quality forecasts, construct re-analyses of concentrations, and perform inverse modeling. Coupled chemistry meteorology models (CCMM) are atmospheric chemistry models that simulate meteorological processes and chemical transformations jointly. We review here the current status of data assimilation in atmospheric chemistry models, with a particular focus on future prospects for data assimilation in CCMM.
Y. Wang, K. N. Sartelet, M. Bocquet, P. Chazette, M. Sicard, G. D'Amico, J. F. Léon, L. Alados-Arboledas, A. Amodeo, P. Augustin, J. Bach, L. Belegante, I. Binietoglou, X. Bush, A. Comerón, H. Delbarre, D. García-Vízcaino, J. L. Guerrero-Rascado, M. Hervo, M. Iarlori, P. Kokkalis, D. Lange, F. Molero, N. Montoux, A. Muñoz, C. Muñoz, D. Nicolae, A. Papayannis, G. Pappalardo, J. Preissler, V. Rizi, F. Rocadenbosch, K. Sellegri, F. Wagner, and F. Dulac
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12031–12053, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12031-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12031-2014, 2014
Y. Wang, K. N. Sartelet, M. Bocquet, and P. Chazette
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3511–3532, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3511-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3511-2014, 2014
O. Saunier, A. Mathieu, D. Didier, M. Tombette, D. Quélo, V. Winiarek, and M. Bocquet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11403–11421, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11403-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11403-2013, 2013
M. Bocquet and P. Sakov
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 803–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-803-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-803-2013, 2013
M. R. Koohkan, M. Bocquet, Y. Roustan, Y. Kim, and C. Seigneur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5887–5905, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5887-2013, 2013
Y. Wang, K. N. Sartelet, M. Bocquet, and P. Chazette
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 269–283, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-269-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-269-2013, 2013
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We introduce SolFinder 1.0, a decision-making tool to select trade-offs between different objective functions for optimal aircraft trajectories, including fuel use, flight time, NOx emissions, contrail distance, and climate impact. The module is included in the AirTraf 3.0 submodel and uses weather conditions simulated by the EMAC atmospheric model. This paper focuses on the ability of SolFinder to identify eco-efficient trajectories, reducing a flight's climate impact at limited cost penalties.
Ali Dashti, Jens C. Grimmer, Christophe Geuzaine, Florian Bauer, and Thomas Kohl
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3467–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3467-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3467-2024, 2024
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This study developed new meshing workflows to enable the automatic generation of meshes that follow geological models. The workflow allows for importing several geological models as input for Gmsh and later exporting the same number of high-quality meshes. This way, geological uncertainty is directly included in the numerical simulations. This study evaluates the impact of the geological uncertainty on thermohydraulic performance of two reservoirs for high-temperature heat storage applications.
Wangbin Shen, Zhaohui Lin, Zhengkun Qin, and Juan Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3447–3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3447-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3447-2024, 2024
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In this study, a land surface image assimilation system capable of optimizing the spatial structure of the background field is constructed by introducing the curvelet analysis method and taking the similarity of image structure as a weak constraint. The findings demonstrate that the assimilation of surface soil moisture observation images effectively and reasonably enhances the spatial structure of soil moisture analysis field.
Luan Carlos de Sena Monteiro Ozelim, Michéle Dal Toé Casagrande, and André Luís Brasil Cavalcante
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3175–3197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3175-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3175-2024, 2024
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The paper addresses synthetic dataset challenges in nonlinear constitutive modeling of soils, providing two datasets: one with 2000 soil types, 40 test conditions each (160 000 triaxial tests), and a second with 2048 soil types, 42 test conditions each (172 032 triaxial tests). Each dataset is a 4000×10 matrix applicable for multivariate forecasting and geotechnical simulations. In addition, a new Python code is introduced, empowering researchers to leverage Python packages for NorSand analyses.
Daniel Giles, Matthew M. Graham, Mosè Giordano, Tuomas Koskela, Alexandros Beskos, and Serge Guillas
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2427–2445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2427-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2427-2024, 2024
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Digital twins of physical and human systems informed by real-time data are becoming ubiquitous across a wide range of settings. Progress for researchers is currently limited by a lack of tools to run these models effectively and efficiently. A key challenge is the optimal use of high-performance computing environments. The work presented here focuses on a developed open-source software platform which aims to improve this usage, with an emphasis placed on flexibility, efficiency, and scalability.
Stefan J. Miller, Paul A. Makar, and Colin J. Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2197–2219, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2197-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2197-2024, 2024
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This work outlines a new solver written in Fortran to calculate the partitioning of metastable aerosols at thermodynamic equilibrium based on the forward algorithms of ISORROPIA II. The new code includes numerical improvements that decrease the computational speed (compared to ISORROPIA II) while improving the accuracy of the partitioning solution.
Fernanda Alvarado-Neves, Laurent Ailleres, Lachlan Grose, Alexander R. Cruden, and Robin Armit
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1975–1993, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1975-2024, 2024
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Previous work has demonstrated that adding geological knowledge to modelling methods creates more accurate and reliable models. Following this reasoning, we added constraints from magma emplacement mechanisms into existing modelling frameworks to improve the 3D characterisation of igneous intrusions. We tested the method on synthetic and real-world case studies, and the results show that our method can reproduce intrusion morphologies with no manual processing and using realistic datasets.
André R. Brodtkorb, Anna Benedictow, Heiko Klein, Arve Kylling, Agnes Nyiri, Alvaro Valdebenito, Espen Sollum, and Nina Kristiansen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1957–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1957-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1957-2024, 2024
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It is vital to know the extent and concentration of volcanic ash in the atmosphere during a volcanic eruption. Whilst satellite imagery may give an estimate of the ash right now (assuming no cloud coverage), we also need to know where it will be in the coming hours. This paper presents a method for estimating parameters for a volcanic eruption based on satellite observations of ash in the atmosphere. The software package is open source and applicable to similar inversion scenarios.
Kees Nederhoff, Maarten van Ormondt, Jay Veeramony, Ap van Dongeren, José Antonio Álvarez Antolínez, Tim Leijnse, and Dano Roelvink
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1789–1811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1789-2024, 2024
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Forecasting tropical cyclones and their flooding impact is challenging. Our research introduces the Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Framework (TC-FF), enhancing cyclone predictions despite uncertainties. TC-FF generates global wind and flood scenarios, valuable even in data-limited regions. Applied to cases like Cyclone Idai, it showcases potential in bettering disaster preparation, marking progress in handling cyclone threats.
Younghun Kang and Ethan J. Kubatko
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1603–1625, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1603-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1603-2024, 2024
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Models used to simulate the flow of coastal and riverine waters, including flooding, require a geometric representation (or mesh) of geographic features that exhibit a range of disparate spatial scales from large, open waters to small, narrow channels. Representing these features in an accurate way without excessive computational overhead presents a challenge. Here, we develop an automatic mesh generation tool to help address this challenge. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of our approach.
Hui Wan, Kai Zhang, Christopher J. Vogl, Carol S. Woodward, Richard C. Easter, Philip J. Rasch, Yan Feng, and Hailong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1387–1407, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1387-2024, 2024
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Sophisticated numerical models of the Earth's atmosphere include representations of many physical and chemical processes. In numerical simulations, these processes need to be calculated in a certain sequence. This study reveals the weaknesses of the sequence of calculations used for aerosol processes in a global atmosphere model. A revision of the sequence is proposed and its impacts on the simulated global aerosol climatology are evaluated.
Christopher J. Vogl, Hui Wan, Carol S. Woodward, and Quan M. Bui
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1409–1428, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1409-2024, 2024
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Generally speaking, accurate climate simulation requires an accurate evolution of the underlying mathematical equations on large computers. The equations are typically formulated and evolved in process groups. Process coupling refers to how the evolution of each group is combined with that of other groups to evolve the full set of equations for the whole atmosphere. This work presents a mathematical framework to evaluate methods without the need to first implement the methods.
Tom Keel, Chris Brierley, and Tamsin Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1229–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1229-2024, 2024
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Jet streams are an important control on surface weather as their speed and shape can modify the properties of weather systems. Establishing trends in the operation of jet streams may provide some indication of the future of weather in a warming world. Despite this, it has not been easy to establish trends, as many methods have been used to characterise them in data. We introduce a tool containing various implementations of jet stream statistics and algorithms that works in a standardised manner.
Amir Golparvar, Matthias Kästner, and Martin Thullner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 881–898, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-881-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-881-2024, 2024
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Coupled reaction transport modelling is an established and beneficial method for studying natural and synthetic porous material, with applications ranging from industrial processes to natural decompositions in terrestrial environments. Up to now, a framework that explicitly considers the porous structure (e.g. from µ-CT images) for modelling the transport of reactive species is missing. We presented a model that overcomes this limitation and represents a novel numerical simulation toolbox.
Stefan Hergarten
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 781–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-781-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-781-2024, 2024
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The Voellmy rheology has been widely used for simulating snow and rock avalanches. Recently, a modified version of this rheology was proposed, which turned out to be able to predict the observed long runout of large rock avalanches theoretically. The software MinVoellmy presented here is the first numerical implementation of the modified rheology. It consists of MATLAB and Python classes, where simplicity and parsimony were the design goals.
Arjun Babu Nellikkattil, Danielle Lemmon, Travis Allen O'Brien, June-Yi Lee, and Jung-Eun Chu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 301–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-301-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-301-2024, 2024
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This study introduces a new computational framework called Scalable Feature Extraction and Tracking (SCAFET), designed to extract and track features in climate data. SCAFET stands out by using innovative shape-based metrics to identify features without relying on preconceived assumptions about the climate model or mean state. This approach allows more accurate comparisons between different models and scenarios.
Mohammad Mortezazadeh, Jean-François Cossette, Ashu Dastoor, Jean de Grandpré, Irena Ivanova, and Abdessamad Qaddouri
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 335–346, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-335-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-335-2024, 2024
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The interpolation process is the most computationally expensive step of the semi-Lagrangian (SL) approach. In this paper we implement a new interpolation scheme into the semi-Lagrangian approach which has the same computational cost as a third-order polynomial scheme but with the accuracy of a fourth-order interpolation scheme. This improvement is achieved by using two third-order backward and forward polynomial interpolation schemes in two consecutive time steps.
Boris Gailleton, Luca C. Malatesta, Guillaume Cordonnier, and Jean Braun
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 71–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-71-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-71-2024, 2024
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This contribution presents a new method to numerically explore the evolution of mountain ranges and surrounding areas. The method helps in monitoring with details on the timing and travel path of material eroded from the mountain ranges. It is particularly well suited to studies juxtaposing different domains – lakes or multiple rock types, for example – and enables the combination of different processes.
Denise Degen, Daniel Caviedes Voullième, Susanne Buiter, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, Harry Vereecken, Ana González-Nicolás, and Florian Wellmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7375–7409, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7375-2023, 2023
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In geosciences, we often use simulations based on physical laws. These simulations can be computationally expensive, which is a problem if simulations must be performed many times (e.g., to add error bounds). We show how a novel machine learning method helps to reduce simulation time. In comparison to other approaches, which typically only look at the output of a simulation, the method considers physical laws in the simulation itself. The method provides reliable results faster than standard.
Carlos Spa, Otilio Rojas, and Josep de la Puente
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7237–7252, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7237-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7237-2023, 2023
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This paper develops a calibration methodology of all absorbing techniques typically used by Fourier pseudo-spectral time-domain (PSTD) methods for geoacoustic wave simulations. The main contributions of the paper are (a) an implementation and quantitative comparison of all absorbing techniques available for PSTD methods through a simple and robust numerical experiment, and (b) a validation of these absorbing techniques in several 3-D seismic scenarios with gradual heterogeneity complexities.
Michael Hillier, Florian Wellmann, Eric A. de Kemp, Boyan Brodaric, Ernst Schetselaar, and Karine Bédard
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6987–7012, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6987-2023, 2023
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Neural networks can be used effectively to model three-dimensional geological structures from point data, sampling geological interfaces, units, and structural orientations. Existing neural network approaches for this type of modelling are advanced by the efficient incorporation of unconformities, new knowledge inputs, and improved data fitting techniques. These advances permit the modelling of more complex geology in diverse geological settings, different-sized areas, and various data regimes.
Hugo Dominguez, Nicolas Riel, and Pierre Lanari
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-189, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-189, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Predicting the behaviour of magmatic systems is important for understanding Earth's matter and heat transport. Numerical modelling is a technique that can predict complex systems at different scales of space and time, by solving equations using various techniques. This study tests four algorithms to find the best way to transport the melt composition. The "Weighted Essentially Non-Oscillatory" algorithm emerges as the best choice, minimizing errors and preserving system mass.
Gong Cheng, Mathieu Morlighem, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-194, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-194, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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We conducted a comprehensive analysis of the stabilization and reinitialization techniques currently employed in ISSM and Ua for solving level-set equations, specifically those related to the dynamic representation of moving ice fronts within numerical ice sheet models. Our results demonstrate that the Streamline Upwinding Petrov Galerkin (SUPG) method outperforms the other approaches. We found that excessively frequent reinitialization can lead to exceptionally high errors in simulations.
Tor Nordam, Ruben Kristiansen, Raymond Nepstad, Erik van Sebille, and Andy M. Booth
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5339–5363, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5339-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5339-2023, 2023
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We describe and compare two common methods, Eulerian and Lagrangian models, used to simulate the vertical transport of material in the ocean. They both solve the same transport problems but use different approaches for representing the underlying equations on the computer. The main focus of our study is on the numerical accuracy of the two approaches. Our results should be useful for other researchers creating or using these types of transport models.
Mathieu Gravey and Grégoire Mariethoz
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5265–5279, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5265-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5265-2023, 2023
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Multiple‐point geostatistics are widely used to simulate complex spatial structures based on a training image. The use of these methods relies on the possibility of finding optimal training images and parametrization of the simulation algorithms. Here, we propose finding an optimal set of parameters using only the training image as input. The main advantage of our approach is to remove the risk of overfitting an objective function.
Siting Li, Ping Wang, Hong Wang, Yue Peng, Zhaodong Liu, Wenjie Zhang, Hongli Liu, Yaqiang Wang, Huizheng Che, and Xiaoye Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4171–4191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4171-2023, 2023
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Optimizing the initial state of atmospheric chemistry model input is one of the most essential methods to improve forecast accuracy. Considering the large computational load of the model, we introduce an ensemble optimal interpolation scheme (EnOI) for operational use and efficient updating of the initial fields of chemical components. The results suggest that EnOI provides a practical and cost-effective technique for improving the accuracy of chemical weather numerical forecasts.
Thomas Richter, Véronique Dansereau, Christian Lessig, and Piotr Minakowski
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3907–3926, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3907-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3907-2023, 2023
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Sea ice covers not only the pole regions but affects the weather and climate globally. For example, its white surface reflects more sunlight than land. The oceans around the poles are therefore kept cool, which affects the circulation in the oceans worldwide. Simulating the behavior and changes in sea ice on a computer is, however, very difficult. We propose a new computer simulation that better models how cracks in the ice change over time and show this by comparing to other simulations.
Emma J. MacKie, Michael Field, Lijing Wang, Zhen Yin, Nathan Schoedl, Matthew Hibbs, and Allan Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3765–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3765-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3765-2023, 2023
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Earth scientists often have to fill in spatial gaps in measurements. This gap-filling or interpolation can be accomplished with geostatistical methods, where the statistical relationships between measurements are used to inform how these gaps should be filled. Despite the broad utility of these methods, there are few freely available geostatistical software applications. We present GStatSim, a Python package for performing different geostatistical interpolation methods.
Ian Madden, Simone Marras, and Jenny Suckale
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3479–3500, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3479-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3479-2023, 2023
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To aid risk managers who may wish to rapidly assess tsunami risk but may lack high-performance computing infrastructure, we provide an accessible software package able to rapidly model tsunami inundation over real topography by leveraging Google's Tensor Processing Unit, a high-performance hardware. Minimally trained users can take advantage of the rapid modeling abilities provided by this package via a web browser thanks to the ease of use of Google Cloud Platform.
Youtong Rong, Paul Bates, and Jeffrey Neal
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3291–3311, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3291-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3291-2023, 2023
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A novel subgrid channel (SGC) model is developed for river–floodplain modelling, allowing utilization of subgrid-scale bathymetric information while performing computations on relatively coarse grids. By including adaptive artificial diffusion, potential numerical instability, which the original SGC solver had, in low-friction regions such as urban areas is addressed. Evaluation of the new SGC model through structured tests confirmed that the accuracy and stability have improved.
Xiaqiong Zhou and Hann-Ming Henry Juang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3263–3274, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3263-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3263-2023, 2023
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The National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System version 16 experienced model instability failures in real-time runs resolved by increasing the minimum thickness depth parameter. Further investigation revealed that the issue was caused by the advection of geopotential heights at the model's layer interfaces. By replacing high-order boundary conditions with zero-gradient boundary conditions for interface-wind reconstruction, the instability was effectively addressed.
Grant T. Euen, Shangxin Liu, Rene Gassmöller, Timo Heister, and Scott D. King
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3221–3239, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3221-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3221-2023, 2023
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Due to the increasing availability of high-performance computing over the past few decades, numerical models have become an important tool for research. Here we test two geodynamic codes that produce such models: ASPECT, a newer code, and CitcomS, an older one. We show that they produce solutions that are extremely close. As methods and codes become more complex over time, showing reproducibility allows us to seamlessly link previously known information to modern methodologies.
Mohammad Kazem Sharifian, Georges Kesserwani, Alovya Ahmed Chowdhury, Jeffrey Neal, and Paul Bates
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2391–2413, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2391-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2391-2023, 2023
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This paper describes a new release of the LISFLOOD-FP model for fast and efficient flood simulations. It features a new non-uniform grid generator that uses multiwavelet analyses to sensibly coarsens the resolutions where the local topographic variations are smooth. Moreover, the model is parallelised on the graphical processing units (GPUs) to further boost computational efficiency. The performance of the model is assessed for five real-world case studies, noting its potential applications.
Matt J. Fischer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-643, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-643, 2023
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In paleoclimate research, proxy system models or PSMs model chemical or biological systems which receive environmental inputs, and output e.g. geochemical signals. The environmental inputs are rarely noiseless, which causes problems when calibrating multi-input PSMs. Here a PSM is developed which includes generalized noise in both model inputs and outputs, and prior information. A quasi-Bayesian method enhances the stability of the solution of the Measurement Error Proxy System Model.
Bruno K. Zürcher
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1697–1711, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1697-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1697-2023, 2023
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We present a novel algorithm to efficiently compute Barnes interpolation, which is a method for transforming data values recorded at irregularly spaced points into a corresponding regular grid. In contrast to naive implementations with an algorithmic complexity that depends on the product of the number of sample points and the number of grid points, our approach reduces this dependency to their sum.
David H. Marsico and Paul A. Ullrich
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1537–1551, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1537-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1537-2023, 2023
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Climate models involve several different components, such as the atmosphere, ocean, and land models. Information needs to be exchanged, or remapped, between these models, and devising algorithms for performing this exchange is important for ensuring the accuracy of climate simulations. In this paper, we examine the efficacy of several traditional and novel approaches to remapping on the sphere and demonstrate where our approaches offer improvement.
Moritz Liebl, Jörg Robl, Stefan Hergarten, David Lundbek Egholm, and Kurt Stüwe
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1315–1343, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1315-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1315-2023, 2023
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In this study, we benchmark a topography-based model for glacier erosion (OpenLEM) with a well-established process-based model (iSOSIA). Our experiments show that large-scale erosion patterns and particularly the transformation of valley length geometry from fluvial to glacial conditions are very similar in both models. This finding enables the application of OpenLEM to study the influence of climate and tectonics on glaciated mountains with reasonable computational effort on standard PCs.
James Kent, Thomas Melvin, and Golo Albert Wimmer
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1265–1276, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1265-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1265-2023, 2023
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This paper introduces the Met Office's new shallow water model. The shallow water model is a building block towards the Met Office's new atmospheric dynamical core. The shallow water model is tested on a number of standard spherical shallow water test cases, including flow over mountains and unstable jets. Results show that the model produces similar results to other shallow water models in the literature.
Anthony Gruber, Max Gunzburger, Lili Ju, Rihui Lan, and Zhu Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1213–1229, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1213-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1213-2023, 2023
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This work applies a novel technical tool, multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) estimation, to three climate-related benchmark experiments involving oceanic, atmospheric, and glacial modeling. By considering useful quantities such as maximum sea height and total (kinetic) energy, we show that MFMC leads to predictions which are more accurate and less costly than those obtained by standard methods. This suggests MFMC as a potential drop-in replacement for estimation in realistic climate models.
Piyoosh Jaysaval, Glenn E. Hammond, and Timothy C. Johnson
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 961–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-961-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-961-2023, 2023
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We present a robust and highly scalable implementation of numerical forward modeling and inversion algorithms for geophysical electrical resistivity tomography data. The implementation is publicly available and developed within the framework of PFLOTRAN (http://www.pflotran.org), an open-source, state-of-the-art massively parallel subsurface flow and transport simulation code. The paper details all the theoretical and implementation aspects of the new capabilities along with test examples.
Lucas Schauer, Michael J. Schmidt, Nicholas B. Engdahl, Stephen D. Pankavich, David A. Benson, and Diogo Bolster
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 833–849, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-833-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-833-2023, 2023
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We develop a multi-dimensional, parallelized domain decomposition strategy for mass-transfer particle tracking methods in two and three dimensions, investigate different procedures for decomposing the domain, and prescribe an optimal tiling based on physical problem parameters and the number of available CPU cores. For an optimally subdivided diffusion problem, the parallelized algorithm achieves nearly perfect linear speedup in comparison with the serial run-up to thousands of cores.
John Mern and Jef Caers
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 289–313, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-289-2023, 2023
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In this work, we formulate the sequential geoscientific data acquisition problem as a problem that is similar to playing chess against nature, except the pieces are not fully observed. Solutions to these problems are given in AI and rarely used in geoscientific data planning. We illustrate our approach to a simple 2D problem of mineral exploration.
Ziqi Gao, Yifeng Wang, Petros Vasilakos, Cesunica E. Ivey, Khanh Do, and Armistead G. Russell
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9015–9029, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9015-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9015-2022, 2022
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While the national ambient air quality standard of ozone is based on the 3-year average of the fourth highest 8 h maximum (MDA8) ozone concentrations, these predicted extreme values using numerical methods are always biased low. We built four computational models (GAM, MARS, random forest and SVR) to predict the fourth highest MDA8 ozone in Southern California using precursor emissions, meteorology and climatological patterns. All models presented acceptable performance, with GAM being the best.
Zhihao Wang, Jason Goetz, and Alexander Brenning
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8765–8784, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8765-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8765-2022, 2022
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A lack of inventory data can be a limiting factor in developing landslide predictive models, which are crucial for supporting hazard policy and decision-making. We show how case-based reasoning and domain adaptation (transfer-learning techniques) can effectively retrieve similar landslide modeling situations for prediction in new data-scarce areas. Using cases in Italy, Austria, and Ecuador, our findings support the application of transfer learning for areas that require rapid model development.
Cited articles
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Efficient Data Assimilation, in: Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic
and Hydrologic Applications (Vol. IV), edited by: Park, S. K. and Xu, L.,
Springer, Cham, 69–96, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-77722-7_1, 2022. a, b
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Short summary
Iterative optimization techniques, the state of the art in data assimilation, have largely focused on extending forecast accuracy to moderate- to long-range forecast systems. However, current methodology may not be cost-effective in reducing forecast errors in online, short-range forecast systems. We propose a novel optimization of these techniques for online, short-range forecast cycles, simultaneously providing an improvement in forecast accuracy and a reduction in the computational cost.
Iterative optimization techniques, the state of the art in data assimilation, have largely...
