Articles | Volume 15, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7421-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7421-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
06 Oct 2022
Model evaluation paper |
| 06 Oct 2022
| 06 Oct 2022
Thermal modeling of three lakes within the continuous permafrost zone in Alaska using the LAKE 2.0 model
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
Elchin E. Jafarov
Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National
Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA
Ken D. Tape
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
Benjamin M. Jones
Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
Victor Stepanenko
Research Computing Center, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
Moscow Center for Fundamental and Applied Mathematics, Moscow, Russia
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Noriaki Ohara, Andrew D. Parsekian, Benjamin M. Jones, Rodrigo C. Rangel, Kenneth M. Hinkel, and Rui A. P. Perdigão
The Cryosphere, 18, 5139–5152, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5139-2024, 2024
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Snow distribution characterization is essential for accurate snow water estimation for water resource prediction from existing in situ observations and remote-sensing data at a finite spatial resolution. Four different observed snow distribution datasets were analyzed for Gaussianity. We found that non-Gaussianity of snow distribution is a signature of the wind redistribution effect. Generally, seasonal snowpack can be approximated well by a Gaussian distribution for a fully snow-covered area.
Lydia Stolpmann, Ingmar Nitze, Ingeborg Bussmann, Benjamin M. Jones, Josefine Lenz, Hanno Meyer, Juliane Wolter, and Guido Grosse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2822, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2822, 2024
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We combine hydrochemical and lake change data to show consequences of permafrost thaw induced lake changes on hydrochemistry, which are relevant for the global carbon cycle. We found higher methane concentrations in lakes that do not freeze to the ground and show that lagoons have lower methane concentrations than lakes. Our detailed lake sampling approach show higher concentrations in Dissolved Organic Carbon in areas of higher erosion rates, that might increase under the climate warming.
Elchin E. Jafarov, Helene Genet, Velimir V. Vesselinov, Valeria Briones, Aiza Kabeer, Andrew L. Mullen, Benjamin Maglio, Tobey Carman, Ruth Rutter, Joy Clein, Chu-Chun Chang, Dogukan Teber, Trevor Smith, Joshua M. Rady, Christina Schädel, Jennifer D. Watts, Brendan M. Rogers, and Susan M. Natali
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-158, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-158, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
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Thawing permafrost could greatly impact global climate. Our study improves modeling of carbon cycling in Arctic ecosystems. We developed an automated method to fine-tune a model that simulates carbon and nitrogen flows, using computer-generated data. Using computer-generated data, we tested our method and found it enhances accuracy and reduces the time needed for calibration. This work helps make climate predictions more reliable in sensitive permafrost regions.
Mauricio Arboleda-Zapata, Michael Angelopoulos, Pier Paul Overduin, Guido Grosse, Benjamin M. Jones, and Jens Tronicke
The Cryosphere, 16, 4423–4445, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4423-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4423-2022, 2022
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We demonstrate how we can reliably estimate the thawed–frozen permafrost interface with its associated uncertainties in subsea permafrost environments using 2D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. In addition, we show how further analyses considering 1D inversion and sensitivity assessments can help quantify and better understand 2D ERT inversion results. Our results illustrate the capabilities of the ERT method to get insights into the development of the subsea permafrost.
M. R. Udawalpola, C. Witharana, A. Hasan, A. Liljedahl, M. Ward Jones, and B. Jones
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVI-M-2-2022, 203–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVI-M-2-2022-203-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVI-M-2-2022-203-2022, 2022
Victor Lomov, Victor Stepanenko, Maria Grechushnikova, and Irina Repina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-329, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-329, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
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We present the first mechanistic model LAKE2.3 for prediction of methane emissions from artificial reservoirs. Estimates of CH4 emissions from the Mozhaysk reservoir (Moscow region) provided by the model are demonstrated. Methane annual emissions through diffusion, ebullition and downstream degassing according to in situ measurements and model simulations are presented. The experiments with the model allowed to determine the most sensitive model parameters for calibration of methane fluxes.
Noriaki Ohara, Benjamin M. Jones, Andrew D. Parsekian, Kenneth M. Hinkel, Katsu Yamatani, Mikhail Kanevskiy, Rodrigo C. Rangel, Amy L. Breen, and Helena Bergstedt
The Cryosphere, 16, 1247–1264, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1247-2022, 2022
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New variational principle suggests that a semi-ellipsoid talik shape (3D Stefan equation) is optimum for incoming energy. However, the lake bathymetry tends to be less ellipsoidal due to the ice-rich layers near the surface. Wind wave erosion is likely responsible for the elongation of lakes, while thaw subsidence slows the wave effect and stabilizes the thermokarst lakes. The derived 3D Stefan equation was compared to the field-observed talik thickness data using geophysical methods.
Elchin E. Jafarov, Daniil Svyatsky, Brent Newman, Dylan Harp, David Moulton, and Cathy Wilson
The Cryosphere, 16, 851–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-851-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-851-2022, 2022
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Recent research indicates the importance of lateral transport of dissolved carbon in the polygonal tundra, suggesting that the freeze-up period could further promote lateral carbon transport. We conducted subsurface tracer simulations on high-, flat-, and low-centered polygons to test the importance of the freeze–thaw cycle and freeze-up time for tracer mobility. Our findings illustrate the impact of hydraulic and thermal gradients on tracer mobility, as well as of the freeze-up time.
Dylan R. Harp, Vitaly Zlotnik, Charles J. Abolt, Bob Busey, Sofia T. Avendaño, Brent D. Newman, Adam L. Atchley, Elchin Jafarov, Cathy J. Wilson, and Katrina E. Bennett
The Cryosphere, 15, 4005–4029, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4005-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4005-2021, 2021
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Polygon-shaped landforms present in relatively flat Arctic tundra result in complex landscape-scale water drainage. The drainage pathways and the time to transition from inundated conditions to drained have important implications for heat and carbon transport. Using fundamental hydrologic principles, we investigate the drainage pathways and timing of individual polygons, providing insights into the effects of polygon geometry and preferential flow direction on drainage pathways and timing.
Lydia Stolpmann, Caroline Coch, Anne Morgenstern, Julia Boike, Michael Fritz, Ulrike Herzschuh, Kathleen Stoof-Leichsenring, Yury Dvornikov, Birgit Heim, Josefine Lenz, Amy Larsen, Katey Walter Anthony, Benjamin Jones, Karen Frey, and Guido Grosse
Biogeosciences, 18, 3917–3936, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3917-2021, 2021
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Our new database summarizes DOC concentrations of 2167 water samples from 1833 lakes in permafrost regions across the Arctic to provide insights into linkages between DOC and environment. We found increasing lake DOC concentration with decreasing permafrost extent and higher DOC concentrations in boreal permafrost sites compared to tundra sites. Our study shows that DOC concentration depends on the environmental properties of a lake, especially permafrost extent, ecoregion, and vegetation.
Claire E. Simpson, Christopher D. Arp, Yongwei Sheng, Mark L. Carroll, Benjamin M. Jones, and Laurence C. Smith
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1135–1150, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1135-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1135-2021, 2021
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Sonar depth point measurements collected at 17 lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska are used to train and validate models to map lake bathymetry. These models predict depth from remotely sensed lake color and are able to explain 58.5–97.6 % of depth variability. To calculate water volumes, we integrate this modeled bathymetry with lake surface area. Knowledge of Alaskan lake bathymetries and volumes is crucial to better understanding water storage, energy balance, and ecological habitat.
Ingmar Nitze, Sarah W. Cooley, Claude R. Duguay, Benjamin M. Jones, and Guido Grosse
The Cryosphere, 14, 4279–4297, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4279-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4279-2020, 2020
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In summer 2018, northwestern Alaska was affected by widespread lake drainage which strongly exceeded previous observations. We analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns with remote sensing observations, weather data and lake-ice simulations. The preceding fall and winter season was the second warmest and wettest on record, causing the destabilization of permafrost and elevated water levels which likely led to widespread and rapid lake drainage during or right after ice breakup.
Maksim Iakunin, Victor Stepanenko, Rui Salgado, Miguel Potes, Alexandra Penha, Maria Helena Novais, and Gonçalo Rodrigues
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3475–3488, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3475-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3475-2020, 2020
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The Alqueva reservoir, located in the southeast of Portugal, is the largest artificial reservoir in western Europe. It was established in 2002 to provide water and electrical resources to meet regional needs. Complex research of this reservoir is an essential scientific task in the scope of meteorology, hydrology, biology, and ecology. Two numerical models (namely, LAKE 2.0 and FLake) were used to assess the thermodynamic and biogeochemical regimes of the reservoir over 2 years of observations.
Dylan R. Harp, Vitaly Zlotnik, Charles J. Abolt, Brent D. Newman, Adam L. Atchley, Elchin Jafarov, and Cathy J. Wilson
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-100, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-100, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Polygon shaped land forms present in relatively flat Arctic tundra result in complex landscape scale water drainage. The drainage pathways and the time to transition from inundated conditions to drained have important implications for heat and carbon transport. Using fundamental hydrologic principles, we investigate the drainage pathways and timing of individual polygons providing insights into the effects of polygon geometry and preferential flow direction on drainage pathways and timing.
Sofya Guseva, Tobias Bleninger, Klaus Jöhnk, Bruna Arcie Polli, Zeli Tan, Wim Thiery, Qianlai Zhuang, James Anthony Rusak, Huaxia Yao, Andreas Lorke, and Victor Stepanenko
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 697–715, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-697-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-697-2020, 2020
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We compare lake models with different complexity focusing on the key factors (e.g., eddy diffusivity) which can have an influence on the distribution of the dissolved gases in water. For the first time, we compare the biogeochemical modules in the ALBM and LAKE models. The result showed a good agreement with observed data (O2), but not for CO2. It indicates the need to improve the representation of physical and biogeochemical processes in lake models.
Christian G. Andresen, David M. Lawrence, Cathy J. Wilson, A. David McGuire, Charles Koven, Kevin Schaefer, Elchin Jafarov, Shushi Peng, Xiaodong Chen, Isabelle Gouttevin, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Duoying Ji, Guangsheng Chen, Daniel Hayes, and Wenxin Zhang
The Cryosphere, 14, 445–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020, 2020
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Widely-used land models project near-surface drying of the terrestrial Arctic despite increases in the net water balance driven by climate change. Drying was generally associated with increases of active-layer depth and permafrost thaw in a warming climate. However, models lack important mechanisms such as thermokarst and soil subsidence that will change the hydrological regime and add to the large uncertainty in the future Arctic hydrological state and the associated permafrost carbon feedback.
Elchin E. Jafarov, Dylan R. Harp, Ethan T. Coon, Baptiste Dafflon, Anh Phuong Tran, Adam L. Atchley, Youzuo Lin, and Cathy J. Wilson
The Cryosphere, 14, 77–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-77-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-77-2020, 2020
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Improved subsurface parameterization and benchmarking data are needed to reduce current uncertainty in predicting permafrost response to a warming climate. We developed a subsurface parameter estimation framework that can be used to estimate soil properties where subsurface data are available. We utilize diverse geophysical datasets such as electrical resistance data, soil moisture data, and soil temperature data to recover soil porosity and soil thermal conductivity.
Kang Wang, Elchin Jafarov, Irina Overeem, Vladimir Romanovsky, Kevin Schaefer, Gary Clow, Frank Urban, William Cable, Mark Piper, Christopher Schwalm, Tingjun Zhang, Alexander Kholodov, Pamela Sousanes, Michael Loso, and Kenneth Hill
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2311–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2311-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2311-2018, 2018
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Ground thermal and moisture data are important indicators of the rapid permafrost changes in the Arctic. To better understand the changes, we need a comprehensive dataset across various sites. We synthesize permafrost-related data in the state of Alaska. It should be a valuable permafrost dataset that is worth maintaining in the future. On a wider level, it also provides a prototype of basic data collection and management for permafrost regions in general.
Kevin Schaefer and Elchin Jafarov
Biogeosciences, 13, 1991–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1991-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1991-2016, 2016
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Respiration in frozen soils is limited to within the thin water films surrounding soil particles. We parameterize volumetric water content (VWC) in frozen soil to represent the fraction of thawed carbon to simulate substrate availability. Simulated VWC and respiration match in situ and soil incubation data. The parameterization is most applicable when simulating carbon dynamics in permafrost for time scales of 100 years or greater.
Elchin Jafarov and Kevin Schaefer
The Cryosphere, 10, 465–475, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-465-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-465-2016, 2016
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To improve the uncertainty in modeling of the permafrost carbon emission associated with the predicted climate warming, it is important to improve the simulation of the current permafrost carbon stock. This work shows how simulation of the frozen carbon in land system models can be improved by better addressing the coupling between plant photosynthesis, soil biogeochemistry, and soil thermodynamics.
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Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4495–4513, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4495-2024, 2024
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Water management is challenging when models don't capture the entire water cycle. We propose that using integrated models facilitates management and improves understanding. We introduce a software tool designed for this task. We discuss its foundation, how it simulates water system components and their interactions, and its customisation. We provide a flexible way to represent water systems, and we hope it will inspire more research and practical applications for sustainable water management.
Qi Tang, Hugo Delottier, Wolfgang Kurtz, Lars Nerger, Oliver S. Schilling, and Philip Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3559–3578, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3559-2024, 2024
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We have developed a new data assimilation framework by coupling an integrated hydrological model HydroGeoSphere with the data assimilation software PDAF. Compared to existing hydrological data assimilation systems, the advantage of our newly developed framework lies in its consideration of the physically based model; its large selection of different assimilation algorithms; and its modularity with respect to the combination of different types of observations, states and parameters.
Willem J. van Verseveld, Albrecht H. Weerts, Martijn Visser, Joost Buitink, Ruben O. Imhoff, Hélène Boisgontier, Laurène Bouaziz, Dirk Eilander, Mark Hegnauer, Corine ten Velden, and Bobby Russell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3199–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3199-2024, 2024
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We present the wflow_sbm distributed hydrological model, recently released by Deltares, as part of the Wflow.jl open-source modelling framework in the programming language Julia. Wflow_sbm has a fast runtime, making it suitable for large-scale modelling. Wflow_sbm models can be set a priori for any catchment with the Python tool HydroMT-Wflow based on globally available datasets, which results in satisfactory to good performance (without much tuning). We show this for a number of specific cases.
Sanchit Minocha, Faisal Hossain, Pritam Das, Sarath Suresh, Shahzaib Khan, George Darkwah, Hyongki Lee, Stefano Galelli, Konstantinos Andreadis, and Perry Oddo
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3137–3156, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3137-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3137-2024, 2024
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The Reservoir Assessment Tool (RAT) merges satellite data with hydrological models, enabling robust estimation of reservoir parameters like inflow, outflow, surface area, and storage changes around the world. Version 3.0 of RAT lowers the barrier of entry for new users and achieves scalability and computational efficiency. RAT 3.0 also facilitates open-source development of functions for continuous improvement to mobilize and empower the global water management community.
Heloisa Ehalt Macedo, Bernhard Lehner, Jim Nicell, and Günther Grill
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2877–2899, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2877-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2877-2024, 2024
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Treated and untreated wastewaters are sources of contaminants of emerging concern. HydroFATE, a new global model, estimates their concentrations in surface waters, identifying streams that are most at risk and guiding monitoring/mitigation efforts to safeguard aquatic ecosystems and human health. Model predictions were validated against field measurements of the antibiotic sulfamethoxazole, with predicted concentrations exceeding ecological thresholds in more than 400 000 km of rivers worldwide.
Pedro Felipe Arboleda-Obando, Agnès Ducharne, Zun Yin, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2141–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2141-2024, 2024
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We show a new irrigation scheme included in the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The new irrigation scheme restrains irrigation due to water shortage, includes water adduction, and represents environmental limits and facilities to access water, due to representing infrastructure in a simple way. Our results show that the new irrigation scheme helps simulate acceptable land surface conditions and fluxes in irrigated areas, even if there are difficulties due to shortcomings and limited information.
Guoqiang Tang, Andrew W. Wood, Andrew J. Newman, Martyn P. Clark, and Simon Michael Papalexiou
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1153–1173, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1153-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1153-2024, 2024
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Ensemble geophysical datasets are crucial for understanding uncertainties and supporting probabilistic estimation/prediction. However, open-access tools for creating these datasets are limited. We have developed the Python-based Geospatial Probabilistic Estimation Package (GPEP). Through several experiments, we demonstrate GPEP's ability to estimate precipitation, temperature, and snow water equivalent. GPEP will be a useful tool to support uncertainty analysis in Earth science applications.
Atabek Umirbekov, Richard Essery, and Daniel Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 911–929, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-911-2024, 2024
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We present a parsimonious snow model which simulates snow mass without the need for extensive calibration. The model is based on a machine learning algorithm that has been trained on diverse set of daily observations of snow accumulation or melt, along with corresponding climate and topography data. We validated the model using in situ data from numerous new locations. The model provides a promising solution for accurate snow mass estimation across regions where in situ data are limited.
Ciaran J. Harman and Esther Xu Fei
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 477–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-477-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-477-2024, 2024
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Over the last 10 years, scientists have developed StorAge Selection: a new way of modeling how material is transported through complex systems. Here, we present some new, easy-to-use, flexible, and very accurate code for implementing this method. We show that, in cases where we know exactly what the answer should be, our code gets the right answer. We also show that our code is closer than some other codes to the right answer in an important way: it conserves mass.
Lele Shu, Paul Ullrich, Xianhong Meng, Christopher Duffy, Hao Chen, and Zhaoguo Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 497–527, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-497-2024, 2024
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Our team developed rSHUD v2.0, a toolkit that simplifies the use of the SHUD, a model simulating water movement in the environment. We demonstrated its effectiveness in two watersheds, one in the USA and one in China. The toolkit also facilitated the creation of the Global Hydrological Data Cloud, a platform for automatic data processing and model deployment, marking a significant advancement in hydrological research.
Jarno Verkaik, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink, Hai Xiang Lin, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 275–300, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-275-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-275-2024, 2024
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This paper presents the parallel PCR-GLOBWB global-scale groundwater model at 30 arcsec resolution (~1 km at the Equator). Named GLOBGM v1.0, this model is a follow-up of the 5 arcmin (~10 km) model, aiming for a higher-resolution simulation of worldwide fresh groundwater reserves under climate change and excessive pumping. For a long transient simulation using a parallel prototype of MODFLOW 6, we show that our implementation is efficient for a relatively low number of processor cores.
Han Qiu, Gautam Bisht, Lingcheng Li, Dalei Hao, and Donghui Xu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 143–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-143-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-143-2024, 2024
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We developed and validated an inter-grid-cell lateral groundwater flow model for both saturated and unsaturated zone in the ELMv2.0 framework. The developed model was benchmarked against PFLOTRAN, a 3D subsurface flow and transport model and showed comparable performance with PFLOTRAN. The developed model was also applied to the Little Washita experimental watershed. The spatial pattern of simulated groundwater table depth agreed well with the global groundwater table benchmark dataset.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Sebastian Ackermann, Denise Cáceres, Martina Flörke, Helena Gerdener, Ellen Kynast, Thedini Asali Peiris, Leonie Schiebener, Maike Schumacher, and Petra Döll
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-213, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Assessing water availability and water use at the global scale is challenging but essential for a range of purposes. We describe the newest version of the global hydrological model WaterGAP which has been used for numerous water resources assessments since 1996. We show the effects of new model features and model evaluations against observed streamflow and water storage anomalies as well as water abstractions statistics. The publically available model output for several variants is described.
Daniel Boateng and Sebastian G. Mutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6479–6514, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6479-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6479-2023, 2023
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We present an open-source Python framework for performing empirical-statistical downscaling of climate information, such as precipitation. The user-friendly package comprises all the downscaling cycles including data preparation, model selection, training, and evaluation, designed in an efficient and flexible manner, allowing for quick and reproducible downscaling products. The framework would contribute to climate change impact assessments by generating accurate high-resolution climate data.
Masaya Yoshikai, Takashi Nakamura, Eugene C. Herrera, Rempei Suwa, Rene Rollon, Raghab Ray, Keita Furukawa, and Kazuo Nadaoka
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5847–5863, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5847-2023, 2023
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Due to complex root system structures, representing the impacts of Rhizophora mangroves on flow in hydrodynamic models has been challenging. This study presents a new drag and turbulence model that leverages an empirical model for root systems. The model can be applied without rigorous measurements of root structures and showed high performance in flow simulations; this may provide a better understanding of hydrodynamics and related transport processes in Rhizophora mangrove forests.
Hao Chen, Tiejun Wang, Yonggen Zhang, Yun Bai, and Xi Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5685–5701, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5685-2023, 2023
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Effectively assembling multiple models for approaching a benchmark solution remains a long-standing issue for various geoscience domains. We here propose an automated machine learning-assisted ensemble framework (AutoML-Ens) that attempts to resolve this challenge. Results demonstrate the great potential of AutoML-Ens for improving estimations due to its two unique features, i.e., assigning dynamic weights for candidate models and taking full advantage of AutoML-assisted workflow.
Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Fuqiang Tian, Thomas Wild, Mengqi Zhao, Sean Turner, A. F. M. Kamal Chowdhury, Chris R. Vernon, Hongchang Hu, Yuan Zhuang, Mohamad Hejazi, and Hong-Yi Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5449–5472, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5449-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5449-2023, 2023
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Most existing global hydrologic models do not explicitly represent hydropower reservoirs. We are introducing a new water management module to Xanthos that distinguishes between the operational characteristics of irrigation, hydropower, and flood control reservoirs. We show that this explicit representation of hydropower reservoirs can lead to a significantly more realistic simulation of reservoir storage and releases in over 44 % of the hydropower reservoirs included in this study.
Javier Diez-Sierra, Salvador Navas, and Manuel del Jesus
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5035–5048, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5035-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5035-2023, 2023
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NEOPRENE is an open-source, freely available library allowing scientists and practitioners to generate synthetic time series and maps of rainfall. These outputs will help to explore plausible events that were never observed in the past but may occur in the near future and to generate possible future events under climate change conditions. The paper shows how to use the library to downscale daily precipitation and how to use synthetic generation to improve our characterization of extreme events.
Adam Pasik, Alexander Gruber, Wolfgang Preimesberger, Domenico De Santis, and Wouter Dorigo
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4957–4976, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4957-2023, 2023
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We apply the exponential filter (EF) method to satellite soil moisture retrievals to estimate the water content in the unobserved root zone globally from 2002–2020. Quality assessment against an independent dataset shows satisfactory results. Error characterization is carried out using the standard uncertainty propagation law and empirically estimated values of EF model structural uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. This is followed by analysis of temporal uncertainty variations.
Po-Wei Huang, Bernd Flemisch, Chao-Zhong Qin, Martin O. Saar, and Anozie Ebigbo
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4767–4791, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4767-2023, 2023
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Water in natural environments consists of many ions. Ions are electrically charged and exert electric forces on each other. We discuss whether the electric forces are relevant in describing mixing and reaction processes in natural environments. By comparing our computer simulations to lab experiments in literature, we show that the electric interactions between ions can play an essential role in mixing and reaction processes, in which case they should not be neglected in numerical modeling.
Edward R. Jones, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Niko Wanders, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Ludovicus P. H. van Beek, and Michelle T. H. van Vliet
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4481–4500, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4481-2023, 2023
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DynQual is a new high-resolution global water quality model for simulating total dissolved solids, biological oxygen demand and fecal coliform as indicators of salinity, organic pollution and pathogen pollution, respectively. Output data from DynQual can supplement the observational record of water quality data, which is highly fragmented across space and time, and has the potential to inform assessments in a broad range of fields including ecological, human health and water scarcity studies.
Hugo Delottier, John Doherty, and Philip Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4213–4231, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4213-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4213-2023, 2023
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Long run times are usually a barrier to the quantification and reduction of predictive uncertainty with complex hydrological models. Data space inversion (DSI) provides an alternative and highly model-run-efficient method for uncertainty quantification. This paper demonstrates DSI's ability to robustly quantify predictive uncertainty and extend the methodology to provide practical metrics that can guide data acquisition and analysis to achieve goals of decision-support modelling.
Zhipin Ai and Naota Hanasaki
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3275–3290, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3275-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3275-2023, 2023
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Simultaneously simulating food production and the requirements and availability of water resources in a spatially explicit manner within a single framework remains challenging on a global scale. Here, we successfully enhanced the global hydrological model H08 that considers human water use and management to simulate the yields of four major staple crops: maize, wheat, rice, and soybean. Our improved model will be beneficial for advancing global food–water nexus studies in the future.
Emilie Rouzies, Claire Lauvernet, Bruno Sudret, and Arthur Vidard
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3137–3163, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3137-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3137-2023, 2023
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Water and pesticide transfer models are complex and should be simplified to be used in decision support. Indeed, these models simulate many spatial processes in interaction, involving a large number of parameters. Sensitivity analysis allows us to select the most influential input parameters, but it has to be adapted to spatial modelling. This study will identify relevant methods that can be transposed to any hydrological and water quality model and improve the fate of pesticide knowledge.
Guoding Chen, Ke Zhang, Sheng Wang, Yi Xia, and Lijun Chao
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2915–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2915-2023, 2023
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In this study, we developed a novel modeling system called iHydroSlide3D v1.0 by coupling a modified a 3D landslide model with a distributed hydrology model. The model is able to apply flexibly different simulating resolutions for hydrological and slope stability submodules and gain a high computational efficiency through parallel computation. The test results in the Yuehe River basin, China, show a good predicative capability for cascading flood–landslide events.
Jens A. de Bruijn, Mikhail Smilovic, Peter Burek, Luca Guillaumot, Yoshihide Wada, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2437–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023, 2023
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We present a computer simulation model of the hydrological system and human system, which can simulate the behaviour of individual farmers and their interactions with the water system at basin scale to assess how the systems have evolved and are projected to evolve in the future. For example, we can simulate the effect of subsidies provided on investment in adaptation measures and subsequent effects in the hydrological system, such as a lowering of the groundwater table or reservoir level.
Matthew D. Wilson and Thomas J. Coulthard
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2415–2436, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2415-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2415-2023, 2023
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During flooding, the sources of water that inundate a location can influence impacts such as pollution. However, methods to trace water sources in flood events are currently only available in complex, computationally expensive hydraulic models. We propose a simplified method which can be added to efficient, reduced-complexity model codes, enabling an improved understanding of flood dynamics and its impacts. We demonstrate its application for three sites at a range of spatial and temporal scales.
Bibi S. Naz, Wendy Sharples, Yueling Ma, Klaus Goergen, and Stefan Kollet
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1617–1639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1617-2023, 2023
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It is challenging to apply a high-resolution integrated land surface and groundwater model over large spatial scales. In this paper, we demonstrate the application of such a model over a pan-European domain at 3 km resolution and perform an extensive evaluation of simulated water states and fluxes by comparing with in situ and satellite data. This study can serve as a benchmark and baseline for future studies of climate change impact projections and for hydrological forecasting.
Jiangtao Liu, David Hughes, Farshid Rahmani, Kathryn Lawson, and Chaopeng Shen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1553–1567, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1553-2023, 2023
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Under-monitored regions like Africa need high-quality soil moisture predictions to help with food production, but it is not clear if soil moisture processes are similar enough around the world for data-driven models to maintain accuracy. We present a deep-learning-based soil moisture model that learns from both in situ data and satellite data and performs better than satellite products at the global scale. These results help us apply our model globally while better understanding its limitations.
Daniel Caviedes-Voullième, Mario Morales-Hernández, Matthew R. Norman, and Ilhan Özgen-Xian
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 977–1008, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-977-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-977-2023, 2023
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This paper introduces the SERGHEI framework and a solver for shallow-water problems. Such models, often used for surface flow and flood modelling, are computationally intense. In recent years the trends to increase computational power have changed, requiring models to adapt to new hardware and new software paradigms. SERGHEI addresses these challenges, allowing surface flow simulation to be enabled on the newest and upcoming consumer hardware and supercomputers very efficiently.
Andrew M. Ireson, Raymond J. Spiteri, Martyn P. Clark, and Simon A. Mathias
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 659–677, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-659-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-659-2023, 2023
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Richards' equation (RE) is used to describe the movement and storage of water in a soil profile and is a component of many hydrological and earth-system models. Solving RE numerically is challenging due to the non-linearities in the properties. Here, we present a simple but effective and mass-conservative solution to solving RE, which is ideal for teaching/learning purposes but also useful in prototype models that are used to explore alternative process representations.
Fang Wang, Di Tian, and Mark Carroll
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 535–556, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-535-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-535-2023, 2023
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Gridded precipitation datasets suffer from biases and coarse resolutions. We developed a customized deep learning (DL) model to bias-correct and downscale gridded precipitation data using radar observations. The results showed that the customized DL model can generate improved precipitation at fine resolutions where regular DL and statistical methods experience challenges. The new model can be used to improve precipitation estimates, especially for capturing extremes at smaller scales.
Malak Sadki, Simon Munier, Aaron Boone, and Sophie Ricci
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 427–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-427-2023, 2023
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Predicting water resource evolution is a key challenge for the coming century.
Anthropogenic impacts on water resources, and particularly the effects of dams and reservoirs on river flows, are still poorly known and generally neglected in global hydrological studies. A parameterized reservoir model is reproduced to compute monthly releases in Spanish anthropized river basins. For global application, an exhaustive sensitivity analysis of the model parameters is performed on flows and volumes.
Nicolas Flipo, Nicolas Gallois, and Jonathan Schuite
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 353–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-353-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-353-2023, 2023
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A new approach is proposed to fit hydrological or land surface models, which suffer from large uncertainties in terms of water partitioning between fast runoff and slow infiltration from small watersheds to regional or continental river basins. It is based on the analysis of hydrosystem behavior in the frequency domain, which serves as a basis for estimating water flows in the time domain with a physically based model. It opens the way to significant breakthroughs in hydrological modeling.
Joachim Meyer, John Horel, Patrick Kormos, Andrew Hedrick, Ernesto Trujillo, and S. McKenzie Skiles
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 233–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-233-2023, 2023
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Freshwater resupply from seasonal snow in the mountains is changing. Current water prediction methods from snow rely on historical data excluding the change and can lead to errors. This work presented and evaluated an alternative snow-physics-based approach. The results in a test watershed were promising, and future improvements were identified. Adaptation to current forecast environments would improve resilience to the seasonal snow changes and helps ensure the accuracy of resupply forecasts.
Shuqi Lin, Donald C. Pierson, and Jorrit P. Mesman
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 35–46, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-35-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-35-2023, 2023
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The risks brought by the proliferation of algal blooms motivate the improvement of bloom forecasting tools, but algal blooms are complexly controlled and difficult to predict. Given rapid growth of monitoring data and advances in computation, machine learning offers an alternative prediction methodology. This study tested various machine learning workflows in a dimictic mesotrophic lake and gave promising predictions of the seasonal variations and the timing of algal blooms.
Thibault Hallouin, Richard J. Ellis, Douglas B. Clark, Simon J. Dadson, Andrew G. Hughes, Bryan N. Lawrence, Grenville M. S. Lister, and Jan Polcher
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9177–9196, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9177-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9177-2022, 2022
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A new framework for modelling the water cycle in the land system has been implemented. It considers the hydrological cycle as three interconnected components, bringing flexibility in the choice of the physical processes and their spatio-temporal resolutions. It is designed to foster collaborations between land surface, hydrological, and groundwater modelling communities to develop the next-generation of land system models for integration in Earth system models.
Seyed Mahmood Hamze-Ziabari, Ulrich Lemmin, Frédéric Soulignac, Mehrshad Foroughan, and David Andrew Barry
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8785–8807, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8785-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8785-2022, 2022
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A procedure combining numerical simulations, remote sensing, and statistical analyses is developed to detect large-scale current systems in large lakes. By applying this novel procedure in Lake Geneva, strategies for detailed transect field studies of the gyres and eddies were developed. Unambiguous field evidence of 3D gyre/eddy structures in full agreement with predictions confirmed the robustness of the proposed procedure.
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Short summary
Lakes in the Arctic are important reservoirs of heat. Under climate warming scenarios, we expect Arctic lakes to warm the surrounding frozen ground. We simulate water temperatures in three Arctic lakes in northern Alaska over several years. Our results show that snow depth and lake ice strongly affect water temperatures during the frozen season and that more heat storage by lakes would enhance thawing of frozen ground.
Lakes in the Arctic are important reservoirs of heat. Under climate warming scenarios, we expect...
