Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-951-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-951-2022
Model description paper
 | 
02 Feb 2022
Model description paper |  | 02 Feb 2022

Minimal CMIP Emulator (MCE v1.2): a new simplified method for probabilistic climate projections

Junichi Tsutsui

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Short summary
A new simple climate model, MCE, was developed. It can emulate the basic behavior of comprehensive climate models in a minimal way with sufficient accuracy, providing a reasonable way to assess climate change mitigation scenarios in terms of consistency with long-term temperature goals. The model's simple structure is suitable for building probability distributions of key model parameters such that they reflect uncertainty ranges of multiple climate projections and observed warming trends.