Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-951-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-951-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
Model description paper
 | 
02 Feb 2022
Model description paper |  | 02 Feb 2022

Minimal CMIP Emulator (MCE v1.2): a new simplified method for probabilistic climate projections

Junichi Tsutsui

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Latest update: 03 Nov 2025
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Short summary
A new simple climate model, MCE, was developed. It can emulate the basic behavior of comprehensive climate models in a minimal way with sufficient accuracy, providing a reasonable way to assess climate change mitigation scenarios in terms of consistency with long-term temperature goals. The model's simple structure is suitable for building probability distributions of key model parameters such that they reflect uncertainty ranges of multiple climate projections and observed warming trends.
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