Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-36
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-36
Submitted as: model description paper
 | 
03 Apr 2024
Submitted as: model description paper |  | 03 Apr 2024
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal GMD.

At-scale Model Output Statistics in mountain environments (AtsMOS v1.0)

Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Tom Matthews, L. Baker Perry, Nirakar Thapa, and Rob Wilby

Abstract. This paper introduces the AtsMOS workflow, designed to enhance mountain meteorology predictions through the downscaling of coarse numerical weather predictions using local observational data. AtsMOS provides a modular, open-source toolkit for local and large-scale forecasting of various meteorological variables through modified Model Output Statistics – and may be applied to data from a single station or an entire network. We demonstrate its effectiveness through an example application at the summit of Mt. Everest, where it improves the prediction of both meteorological variables (e.g. wind speed, temperature) and derivative variables (e.g. facial frostbite time) critical for mountaineering safety. As a bridge between numerical weather prediction models and ground observations, AtsMOS help produce insights for hazard mitigation, water resource management, and other weather-dependant issues in mountainous regions and beyond.

Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Tom Matthews, L. Baker Perry, Nirakar Thapa, and Rob Wilby

Status: open (until 29 May 2024)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Tom Matthews, L. Baker Perry, Nirakar Thapa, and Rob Wilby
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Tom Matthews, L. Baker Perry, Nirakar Thapa, and Rob Wilby

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Short summary
This paper introduces the AtsMOS workflow, a new tool for improving weather forecasts in mountainous areas. By combining advanced statistical techniques with local weather data, AtsMOS can provide more accurate predictions of weather conditions. Using data from Mount Everest as an example, AtsMOS has shown promise in better forecasting hazardous weather conditions, making it a valuable tool for communities in mountainous regions and beyond.