Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3697-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3697-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
22 Jun 2021
Model description paper |
| 22 Jun 2021
| 22 Jun 2021
Coupling framework (1.0) for the PISM (1.1.4) ice sheet model and the MOM5 (5.1.0) ocean model via the PICO ice shelf cavity model in an Antarctic domain
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Ronja Reese
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Willem Nicholas Huiskamp
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Stefan Petri
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Torsten Albrecht
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Georg Feulner
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Ricarda Winkelmann
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Related authors
Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 19, 2263–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2263-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2263-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We identify potential oceanic gateways to Antarctic grounding lines based on high-resolution bathymetry data and examine the effect of access depths on ice-shelf melt rates. These gateways manifest the deepest topographic features that could channel warm water masses to the base of the ice sheet. We identify oceanic gateways in several Antarctic regions and estimate an upper bound of melt rate changes in case all warm water masses gain access to the cavities.
Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 19, 1181–1203, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1181-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates how changing sea levels around Antarctica can potentially affect the melting of floating ice shelves. It utilizes numerical models for both the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the solid Earth, investigating features like troughs and sills that control the flow of ocean water onto the continental shelf. The research finds that compared to climatic changes, the effect of relative sea level on ice-shelf melting is small.
Maxence Menthon, Pepijn Bakker, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, and Ronja Reese
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 7297–7320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7297-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7297-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we implement a basal ice shelf melt module (PICO – Postdam Ice-shelf Cavity mOdel) in an ice sheet model (GRISLI) and test six simple statistical methods to calibrate this module. We show that calculating the mean absolute error of bins best fits the observational datasets under multiple conditions and without using temperature corrections. Additionally, we show that calibration at a smaller scale than all Antarctic ice shelves is not needed. Finally, we assess the impact with future projections until 2300.
Johanna Beckmann, Ronja Reese, Felicity S. McCormack, Sue Cook, Lawrence Bird, Dawid Gwyther, Daniel Richards, Matthias Scheiter, Yu Wang, Hélène Seroussi, Ayako Abe‐Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez‐Solas, Xylar S. Asay‐Davis, Jean‐Baptiste Barre, Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge Bernales, Javier Blasco, Justine Caillet, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi, Julius Garbe, Fabien Gillet‐Chaulet, Rupert Gladstone, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Holly Kyeore Han, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ann Kristin Klose, Petra M. Langebroek, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel P. Lowry, Pierre Mathiot, Marisa Montoya, Mathieu Morlighem, Sophie Nowicki, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Tyler Pelle, Aurélien Quiquet, Alexander Robinson, Leopekka Saraste, Erika G. Simon, Sainan Sun, Jake P. Twarog, Luke D. Trusel, Benoit Urruty, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Chen Zhao, and Thomas Zwinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctica holds enough ice to raise sea levels by many meters, but its future is uncertain. Warm ocean water melts ice shelves from below, letting inland ice flow faster into the sea. By 2300, Antarctica could add 0.6–4.4 m to sea levels. Our study identifies two key factors—how strongly shelves melt and how the ice responds. These explain much of the range, and refining them in models may improve future predictions.
Colin Jones, Isaline Bossert, Donovan P. Dennis, Hazel Jeffery, Chris D. Jones, Torben Koenigk, Sina Loriani, Benjamin Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Manabu Abe, Sebastian Bathiany, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Patrica Cadule, Frederic S. Castruccio, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Andrea Dittus, Jonathan F. Donges, Friederike Fröb, Thomas Frölicher, Goran Georgievski, Chuncheng Guo, Aixue Hu, Peter Lawrence, Paul Lerner, José Licón-Saláiz, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Anastasia Romanou, Elena Shevliakova, Yona Silvy, Didier Swingedouw, Jerry Tjiputra, Jeremy Walton, Andy Wiltshire, Ricarda Winkelmann, Richard Wood, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3604, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new Earth system model experiment protocol to help researchers understand how Earth might respond to positive, zero, and negative carbon emissions. This protocol enables different models to be compared following similar warming and cooling rates. Researchers use the models to explore how the Earth reacts to different climate futures, including the risk of tipping points being exceeded and whether changes can be reversed. The results will support improved long-term climate policy.
Helen Werner, Dirk Scherler, Tancrède P. M. Leger, Guillaume Jouvet, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3870, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated how spatial resolution affects numerical modelling of a growing and retreating alpine icefield. While the overall ice-covered area remained similar at different resolutions, ice thickness and flow are highly influenced by bedrock altitude and resolution, with the strongest changes occurring at resolutions of ~400–800 m. Our findings highlight the importance of high-resolution modelling to accurately capture glacier dynamics and topographic controls in mountainous regions.
Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 19, 2263–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2263-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2263-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We identify potential oceanic gateways to Antarctic grounding lines based on high-resolution bathymetry data and examine the effect of access depths on ice-shelf melt rates. These gateways manifest the deepest topographic features that could channel warm water masses to the base of the ice sheet. We identify oceanic gateways in several Antarctic regions and estimate an upper bound of melt rate changes in case all warm water masses gain access to the cavities.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
E. Keith Smith, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 545–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Social tipping dynamics have received recent attention as a potential mechanism for effective climate actions – yet how such tipping dynamics could unfold remains largely unquantified. We explore how social tipping processes can develop by enabling necessary conditions (exemplified by climate change concern) and increased perceptions of localized impacts (sea level rise). The likelihood of social tipping varies regionally, mostly along areas with the highest exposure to persistent risks.
Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 19, 1181–1203, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1181-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates how changing sea levels around Antarctica can potentially affect the melting of floating ice shelves. It utilizes numerical models for both the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the solid Earth, investigating features like troughs and sills that control the flow of ocean water onto the continental shelf. The research finds that compared to climatic changes, the effect of relative sea level on ice-shelf melting is small.
Angélique Melet, Roderik van de Wal, Angel Amores, Arne Arns, Alisée A. Chaigneau, Irina Dinu, Ivan D. Haigh, Tim H. J. Hermans, Piero Lionello, Marta Marcos, H. E. Markus Meier, Benoit Meyssignac, Matthew D. Palmer, Ronja Reese, Matthew J. R. Simpson, and Aimée B. A. Slangen
State Planet, 3-slre1, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The EU Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise’s Assessment Report strives to synthesize the current scientific knowledge on sea level rise and its impacts across local, national, and EU scales to support evidence-based policy and decision-making, primarily targeting coastal areas. This paper complements IPCC reports by documenting the state of knowledge of observed and 21st century projected changes in mean and extreme sea levels with more regional information for EU seas as scoped with stakeholders.
Ann Kristin Klose, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4463–4492, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We systematically assess the long-term sea-level response from Antarctica to warming projected over the next centuries, using two ice-sheet models. We show that this committed Antarctic sea-level contribution is substantially higher than the transient sea-level change projected for the coming decades. A low-emission scenario already poses considerable risk of multi-meter sea-level increase over the next millennia, while additional East Antarctic ice loss unfolds under the high-emission pathway.
Jan De Rydt, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Mathias van Caspel, Ralph Timmermann, Pierre Mathiot, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, Pierre Dutrieux, Ben Galton-Fenzi, David Holland, and Ronja Reese
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7105–7139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global climate models do not reliably simulate sea-level change due to ice-sheet–ocean interactions. We propose a community modelling effort to conduct a series of well-defined experiments to compare models with observations and study how models respond to a range of perturbations in climate and ice-sheet geometry. The second Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project will continue to lay the groundwork for including ice-sheet–ocean interactions in global-scale IPCC-class models.
Torsten Albrecht, Meike Bagge, and Volker Klemann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4233–4255, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4233-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4233-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We performed coupled ice sheet–solid Earth simulations and discovered a positive (forebulge) feedback mechanism for advancing grounding lines, supporting a larger West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum. During deglaciation we found that the stabilizing glacial isostatic adjustment feedback dominates grounding-line retreat in the Ross Sea, with a weak Earth structure. This may have consequences for present and future ice sheet stability and potential rates of sea-level rise.
Johannes Feldmann, Anders Levermann, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4011–4028, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we show in simplified simulations that the (ir)reversibility of the retreat of instability-prone, Antarctica-type glaciers can strongly depend on the depth of the bed depression they rest on. If it is sufficiently deep, then the destabilized glacier does not recover from its collapsed state. Our results suggest that glaciers resting on a wide and deep bed depression, such as Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier, are particularly susceptible to irreversible retreat.
Ann Kristin Klose, Jonathan F. Donges, Ulrike Feudel, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 635–652, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We qualitatively study the long-term stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet and AMOC as tipping elements in the Earth system, which is largely unknown given their interaction in a positive–negative feedback loop. Depending on the timescales of ice loss and the position of the AMOC’s state relative to its critical threshold, we find distinct dynamic regimes of cascading tipping. These suggest that respecting safe rates of environmental change is necessary to mitigate potential domino effects.
Markus Drüke, Wolfgang Lucht, Werner von Bloh, Stefan Petri, Boris Sakschewski, Arne Tobian, Sina Loriani, Sibyll Schaphoff, Georg Feulner, and Kirsten Thonicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 467–483, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-467-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-467-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The planetary boundary framework characterizes major risks of destabilization of the Earth system. We use the comprehensive Earth system model POEM to study the impact of the interacting boundaries for climate change and land system change. Our study shows the importance of long-term effects on carbon dynamics and climate, as well as the need to investigate both boundaries simultaneously and to generally keep both boundaries within acceptable ranges to avoid a catastrophic scenario for humanity.
Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 653–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.
Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David Docquier, Jonathan F. Donges, Swinda K. J. Falkena, Ann Kristin Klose, David Obura, Juan Rocha, Stefanie Rynders, Norman Julius Steinert, and Matteo Willeit
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 41–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper maps out the state-of-the-art literature on interactions between tipping elements relevant for current global warming pathways. We find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 °C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpasses 2.0 °C.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Julius Eberhard, Oliver E. Bevan, Georg Feulner, Stefan Petri, Jeroen van Hunen, and James U. L. Baldini
Clim. Past, 19, 2203–2235, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
During at least two phases in its past, Earth was more or less covered in ice. These “snowball Earth” events probably started suddenly upon undercutting a certain threshold in the carbon-dioxide concentration. This threshold can vary considerably under different conditions. In our study, we find the thresholds for different distributions of continents, geometries of Earth’s orbit, and volcanic eruptions. The results show that the threshold might have varied by up to 46 %.
Julius Garbe, Maria Zeitz, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 4571–4599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We adopt the novel surface module dEBM-simple in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to investigate the impact of atmospheric warming on Antarctic surface melt and long-term ice sheet dynamics. As an enhancement compared to traditional temperature-based melt schemes, the module accounts for changes in ice surface albedo and thus the melt–albedo feedback. Our results underscore the critical role of ice–atmosphere feedbacks in the future sea-level contribution of Antarctica on long timescales.
Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Ricarda Winkelmann, Mondher Chekki, David Chandler, and Petra M. Langebroek
The Cryosphere, 17, 3739–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The grounding lines of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could enter phases of irreversible retreat or advance. We use three ice sheet models to show that the present-day locations of Antarctic grounding lines are reversible with respect to a small perturbation away from their current position. This indicates that present-day retreat of the grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-enhancing.
Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, David Chandler, Petra M. Langebroek, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 3761–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to test where current climate conditions in Antarctica might lead. We find that present-day ocean and atmosphere conditions might commit an irreversible collapse of parts of West Antarctica which evolves over centuries to millennia. Importantly, this collapse is not irreversible yet.
Johanna Beckmann and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 3083–3099, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3083-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3083-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Over the past decade, Greenland has experienced several extreme melt events.
With progressing climate change, such extreme melt events can be expected to occur more frequently and potentially become more severe and persistent.
Strong melt events may considerably contribute to Greenland's mass loss, which in turn strongly determines future sea level rise. How important these extreme melt events could be in the future is assessed in this study for the first time.
Lena Nicola, Dirk Notz, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 2563–2583, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2563-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2563-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For future sea-level projections, approximating Antarctic precipitation increases through temperature-scaling approaches will remain important, as coupled ice-sheet simulations with regional climate models remain computationally expensive, especially on multi-centennial timescales. We here revisit the relationship between Antarctic temperature and precipitation using different scaling approaches, identifying and explaining regional differences.
Georg Feulner, Mona Bukenberger, and Stefan Petri
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 533–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-533-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-533-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
One limit of planetary habitability is defined by the threshold of global glaciation. If Earth cools, growing ice cover makes it brighter, leading to further cooling, since more sunlight is reflected, eventually leading to global ice cover (Snowball Earth). We study how much carbon dioxide is needed to prevent global glaciation in Earth's history given the slow increase in the Sun's brightness. We find an unexpected change in the characteristics of climate states close to the Snowball limit.
Clara Burgard, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ronja Reese, Adrian Jenkins, and Pierre Mathiot
The Cryosphere, 16, 4931–4975, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The ocean-induced melt at the base of the floating ice shelves around Antarctica is one of the largest uncertainty factors in the Antarctic contribution to future sea-level rise. We assess the performance of several existing parameterisations in simulating basal melt rates on a circum-Antarctic scale, using an ocean simulation resolving the cavities below the shelves as our reference. We find that the simple quadratic slope-independent and plume parameterisations yield the best compromise.
Maria Zeitz, Jan M. Haacker, Jonathan F. Donges, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1077–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet under global warming is crucial. Here, using PISM, we study how the interplay of feedbacks between the ice sheet, the atmosphere and solid Earth affects the long-term response of the Greenland Ice Sheet under constant warming. Our findings suggest four distinct dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet on the route to destabilization under global warming – from recovery via quasi-periodic oscillations in ice volume to ice sheet collapse.
Tanja Schlemm, Johannes Feldmann, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 16, 1979–1996, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1979-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1979-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Marine cliff instability, if it exists, could dominate Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise. It is likely to speed up with ice thickness and thus would accelerate in most parts of Antarctica. Here, we investigate a possible mechanism that might stop cliff instability through cloaking by ice mélange. It is only a first step, but it shows that embayment geometry is, in principle, able to stop marine cliff instability in most parts of West Antarctica.
Johannes Feldmann, Ronja Reese, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 16, 1927–1940, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1927-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1927-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use a numerical model to simulate the flow of a simplified, buttressed Antarctic-type outlet glacier with an attached ice shelf. We find that after a few years of perturbation such a glacier responds much stronger to melting under the ice-shelf shear margins than to melting in the central fast streaming part of the ice shelf. This study explains the underlying physical mechanism which might gain importance in the future if melt rates under the Antarctic ice shelves continue to increase.
Maria Zeitz, Ronja Reese, Johanna Beckmann, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 5739–5764, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5739-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5739-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
With the increasing melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which contributes to sea level rise, the surface of the ice darkens. The dark surfaces absorb more radiation and thus experience increased melt, resulting in the melt–albedo feedback. Using a simple surface melt model, we estimate that this positive feedback contributes to an additional 60 % ice loss in a high-warming scenario and additional 90 % ice loss for moderate warming. Albedo changes are important for Greenland’s future ice loss.
Willem Huiskamp and Shayne McGregor
Clim. Past, 17, 1819–1839, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1819-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1819-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the reliability of paleo-reconstructions of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) using climate model data. We find that reconstructions are able to capture ~ 60 % of the SAM variability at best, with poorer reconstructions managing only 35 %. Reconstructions perform best when they use more proxies sourced from the entire Southern Hemisphere land mass. Future reconstructions should endeavour to address both sampling and proxy–SAM correlation stability uncertainties.
Markus Drüke, Werner von Bloh, Stefan Petri, Boris Sakschewski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Matthias Forkel, Willem Huiskamp, Georg Feulner, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4117–4141, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4117-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4117-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we couple the well-established and comprehensively validated state-of-the-art dynamic LPJmL5 global vegetation model to the CM2Mc coupled climate model (CM2Mc-LPJmL v.1.0). Several improvements to LPJmL5 were implemented to allow a fully functional biophysical coupling. The new climate model is able to capture important biospheric processes, including fire, mortality, permafrost, hydrological cycling and the the impacts of managed land (crop growth and irrigation).
Nico Wunderling, Jonathan F. Donges, Jürgen Kurths, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 601–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In the Earth system, climate tipping elements exist that can undergo qualitative changes in response to environmental perturbations. If triggered, this would result in severe consequences for the biosphere and human societies. We quantify the risk of tipping cascades using a conceptual but fully dynamic network approach. We uncover that the risk of tipping cascades under global warming scenarios is enormous and find that the continental ice sheets are most likely to initiate these failures.
Sebastian H. R. Rosier, Ronja Reese, Jonathan F. Donges, Jan De Rydt, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 1501–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Pine Island Glacier has contributed more to sea-level rise over the past decades than any other glacier in Antarctica. Ice-flow modelling studies have shown that it can undergo periods of rapid mass loss, but no study has shown that these future changes could cross a tipping point and therefore be effectively irreversible. Here, we assess the stability of Pine Island Glacier, quantifying the changes in ocean temperatures required to cross future tipping points using statistical methods.
Jan De Rydt, Ronja Reese, Fernando S. Paolo, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 15, 113–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-113-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-113-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We used satellite observations and numerical simulations of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, between 1996 and 2016 to show that the recent increase in its flow speed can only be reproduced by computer models if stringent assumptions are made about the material properties of the ice and its underlying bed. These assumptions are not commonly adopted in ice flow modelling, and our results therefore have implications for future simulations of Antarctic ice flow and sea level projections.
Gerilyn S. Soreghan, Laurent Beccaletto, Kathleen C. Benison, Sylvie Bourquin, Georg Feulner, Natsuko Hamamura, Michael Hamilton, Nicholas G. Heavens, Linda Hinnov, Adam Huttenlocker, Cindy Looy, Lily S. Pfeifer, Stephane Pochat, Mehrdad Sardar Abadi, James Zambito, and the Deep Dust workshop participants
Sci. Dril., 28, 93–112, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-28-93-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-28-93-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The events of the Permian — the orogenies, biospheric turnovers, icehouse and greenhouse antitheses, and Mars-analog lithofacies — boggle the imagination and present us with great opportunities to explore Earth system behavior. Here we outline results of workshops to propose continuous coring of continental Permian sections in western (Anadarko Basin) and eastern (Paris Basin) equatorial Pangaea to retrieve continental records spanning 50 Myr of Earth's history.
Maria Zeitz, Anders Levermann, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 14, 3537–3550, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The flow of ice drives mass losses in the large ice sheets. Sea-level rise projections rely on ice-sheet models, solving the physics of ice flow and melt. Unfortunately the parameters in the physics of flow are uncertain. Here we show, in an idealized setup, that these uncertainties can double flow-driven mass losses within the possible range of parameters. It is possible that this uncertainty carries over to realistic sea-level rise projections.
Cited articles
Albrecht, T., Winkelmann, R., and Levermann, A.: Glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) – Part 1: Boundary conditions and climatic forcing, The Cryosphere, 14, 599–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-599-2020, 2020. a, b
Asay-Davis, X. S., Jourdain, N. C., and Nakayama, Y.: Developments in
Simulating and Parameterizing Interactions Between the Southern Ocean and the
Antarctic Ice Sheet, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 3, 316–329,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0071-0, 2017. a
Aschwanden, A., Bueler, E., Khroulev, C., and Blatter, H.: An enthalpy
formulation for glaciers and ice sheets, J. Glaciol., 58, 441–457,
https://doi.org/10.3189/2012jog11j088, 2012. a
Balaji, V., Maisonnave, E., Zadeh, N., Lawrence, B. N., Biercamp, J., Fladrich, U., Aloisio, G., Benson, R., Caubel, A., Durachta, J., Foujols, M.-A., Lister, G., Mocavero, S., Underwood, S., and Wright, G.: CPMIP: measurements of real computational performance of Earth system models in CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 19–34, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-19-2017, 2017. a
Beckmann, A. and Goosse, H.: A parameterization of ice shelf–ocean
interaction for climate models, Ocean Model., 5, 157–170,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1463-5003(02)00019-7, 2003. a
Bronselaer, B., Winton, M., Griffies, S. M., Hurlin, W. J., Rodgers, K. B.,
Sergienko, O. V., Stouffer, R. J., and Russell, J. L.: Change in future
climate due to Antarctic meltwater, Nature, 564, 53–58,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0712-z, 2018. a, b
Bueler, E. and Brown, J.: Shallow shelf approximation as a “sliding law” in
a thermomechanically coupled ice sheet model, J. Geophys.
Res.-Earth Surf., 114, F03008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JF001179, 2009. a, b, c
Bueler, E. and van Pelt, W.: Mass-conserving subglacial hydrology in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model version 0.6, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1613–1635, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1613-2015, 2015. a
Bueler, E., Brown, J., and Lingle, C.: Exact solutions to the
thermomechanically coupled shallow-ice approximation: effective tools for
verification, J. Glaciol., 53, 499–516,
https://doi.org/10.3189/002214307783258396, 2007. a
Clark, P. U. and Mix, A. C.: Ice sheets and sea level of the Last Glacial
Maximum, Quatern. Sci. Rev., 21, 1–7,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(01)00118-4, 2002. a
Depoorter, M. A., Bamber, J. L., Griggs, J. A., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., van den Broeke, M. R., and Moholdt, G.: Calving fluxes and basal melt rates of Antarctic ice shelves, Nature, 502, 89–92,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12567, 2013. a
De Rydt, J. and Gudmundsson, G. H.: Coupled ice shelf-ocean modeling and
complex grounding line retreat from a seabed ridge, J. Geophys.
Res.-Earth Surf., 121, 865–880, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JF003791, 2016. a
Dinniman, M., , Asay-Davis, X., Galton-Fenzi, B., Holland, P., Jenkins, A., and Timmermann, R.: Modeling Ice Shelf/Ocean Interaction in Antarctica: A Review, Oceanography, 29, 144–153, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2016.106, 2016. a
Donat-Magnin, M., Jourdain, N. C., Spence, P., Le Sommer, J., Gallée, H., and
Durand, G.: Ice-Shelf Melt Response to Changing Winds and Glacier Dynamics in
the Amundsen Sea Sector, Antarctica, J. Geophy. Res.-Oceans,
122, 10206–10224, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013059, 2017. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Favier, L., Jourdain, N. C., Jenkins, A., Merino, N., Durand, G., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., and Mathiot, P.: Assessment of sub-shelf melting parameterisations using the ocean–ice-sheet coupled model NEMO(v3.6)–Elmer/Ice(v8.3) , Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2255–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2255-2019, 2019. a
Feldmann, J., Albrecht, T., Khroulev, C., Pattyn, F., and Levermann, A.:
Resolution-dependent performance of grounding line motion in a shallow model
compared with a full-Stokes model according to the MISMIP3d intercomparison,
J. Glaciol., 60, 353–360, https://doi.org/10.3189/2014JoG13J093, 2014. a, b
Fretwell, P., Pritchard, H. D., Vaughan, D. G., Bamber, J. L., Barrand, N. E., Bell, R., Bianchi, C., Bingham, R. G., Blankenship, D. D., Casassa, G., Catania, G., Callens, D., Conway, H., Cook, A. J., Corr, H. F. J., Damaske, D., Damm, V., Ferraccioli, F., Forsberg, R., Fujita, S., Gim, Y., Gogineni, P., Griggs, J. A., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Holmlund, P., Holt, J. W., Jacobel, R. W., Jenkins, A., Jokat, W., Jordan, T., King, E. C., Kohler, J., Krabill, W., Riger-Kusk, M., Langley, K. A., Leitchenkov, G., Leuschen, C., Luyendyk, B. P., Matsuoka, K., Mouginot, J., Nitsche, F. O., Nogi, Y., Nost, O. A., Popov, S. V., Rignot, E., Rippin, D. M., Rivera, A., Roberts, J., Ross, N., Siegert, M. J., Smith, A. M., Steinhage, D., Studinger, M., Sun, B., Tinto, B. K., Welch, B. C., Wilson, D., Young, D. A., Xiangbin, C., and Zirizzotti, A.: Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 7, 375–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-375-2013, 2013. a
Galbraith, E. D., Kwon, E. Y., Gnanadesikan, A., Rodgers, K. B., Griffies,
S. M., Bianchi, D., Sarmiento, J. L., Dunne, J. P., Simeon, J., Slater,
R. D., Wittenberg, A. T., and Held, I. M.: Climate Variability and
Radiocarbon in the CM2Mc Earth System Model, J. Climate, 24,
4230–4254, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3919.1, 2011. a
Garabato, A. C. N., Forryan, A., Dutrieux, P., Brannigan, L., Biddle, L. C.,
Heywood, K. J., Jenkins, A., Firing, Y. L., and Kimura, S.: Vigorous lateral
export of the meltwater outflow from beneath an Antarctic ice shelf, Nature,
542, 219–222, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature20825, 2017. a
Gladstone, R., Galton-Fenzi, B., Gwyther, D., Zhou, Q., Hattermann, T., Zhao, C., Jong, L., Xia, Y., Guo, X., Petrakopoulos, K., Zwinger, T., Shapero, D., and Moore, J.: The Framework For Ice Sheet–Ocean Coupling (FISOC) V1.1, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 889–905, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-889-2021, 2021. a
Goelzer, H., Huybrechts, P., Loutre, M.-F., and Fichefet, T.: Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet–climate model, Clim. Past, 12, 2195–2213, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2195-2016, 2016. a
Golledge, N., Keller, E., Gomez, N., Naughten, K., Bernales, J., Trusel, L.,
and Edwards, T.: Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century
ice-sheet melt, Nature, 566, 65–72, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0889-9, 2019. a
Griffies, S. M., Biastoch, A., Böning, C., Bryan, F., Danabasoglu, G.,
Chassignet, E. P., England, M. H., Gerdes, R., Haak, H., Hallberg, R. W.,
Hazeleger, W., Jungclaus, J., Large, W. G., Madec, G., Pirani, A., Samuels,
B. L., Scheinert, M., Gupta, A. S., Severijns, C. A., Simmons, H. L.,
Treguier, A. M., Winton, M., Yeager, S., and Yin, J.: Coordinated Ocean-ice
Reference Experiments (COREs), Ocean Model., 26, 1–46,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2008.08.007, 2009. a
Heuzé, C., Heywood, K. J., Stevens, D. P., and Ridley, J. K.: Southern
Ocean bottom water characteristics in CMIP5 models, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 40, 1409–1414, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50287, 2013. a
Hillenbrand, C.-D., Smith, J. A., Hodell, D. A., Greaves, M., Poole, C. R.,
Kender, S., Williams, M., Andersen, T. J., Jernas, P. E., Elderfield, H.,
Klages, J. P., Roberts, S. J., Gohl, K., Larter, R. D., and Kuhn, G.: West
Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by Holocene warm water incursions, Nature,
547, 43–48, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature22995, 2017. a
Holland, D. M. and Jenkins, A.: Modeling Thermodynamic Ice–Ocean
Interactions at the Base of an Ice Shelf, J. Phys. Oceanogr.,
29, 1787–1800, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1999)029<1787:mtioia>2.0.co;2, 1999. a, b, c
Holland, P. R., Bracegirdle, T. J., Dutrieux, P., Jenkins, A., and Steig,
E. J.: West Antarctic ice loss influenced by internal climate variability and
anthropogenic forcing, Nat. Geosci., 12, 718–724,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0420-9, 2019. a
Jenkins, A., Shoosmith, D., Dutrieux, P., Jacobs, S., Kim, T. W., Lee, S. H.,
Ha, H. K., and Stammerjohn, S.: West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in the
Amundsen Sea driven by decadal oceanic variability, Nat. Geosci., 11,
733–738, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0207-4, 2018. a
Jordan, J. R., Holland, P. R., Goldberg, D., Snow, K., Arthern, R., Campin,
J.-M., Heimbach, P., and Jenkins, A.: Ocean-Forced Ice-Shelf Thinning in a
Synchronously Coupled Ice-Ocean Model, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 123, 864–882, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017jc013251, 2018. a
Jourdain, N. C., Asay-Davis, X., Hattermann, T., Straneo, F., Seroussi, H., Little, C. M., and Nowicki, S.: A protocol for calculating basal melt rates in the ISMIP6 Antarctic ice sheet projections, The Cryosphere, 14, 3111–3134, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3111-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Khrulev, C., Bueler, E., Aschwanden, A., Maxwell, D., Brown, J., Albrecht, T., Seguinot, J., Mengel, M., Hinck, S., Kreuzer, M., Ziemen, F., Reese, R., and Kleiner, T.: m-kreuzer/pism: Version as used in Kreuzer et al., Geoscientific Model Development publication (gmd-2020-230) (Version v1.1.4_gmd-2020-230), Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4686967, 2021. a
Kreuzer, M.: m-kreuzer/PISM-MOM_coupling: Version as used in Kreuzer et al., Geoscientific Model Development publication (gmd-2020-230) (Version v1.0.3), Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4692679, 2021a. a, b
Kreuzer, M.: Input Data as used in Kreuzer et al., Geoscientific Model Development publication (gmd-2020-230) (Version v1.0.3) [Data set], Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4692940, 2021b. a
Leslie, T., Ward, M., Hannah, N., Hoover, N., Heerdegen, A., Griffies, S., Kiss, A., Fiedler, R., Holmes, R., Yan, H., Farneti, R., Leopardi, P., Snow, K., Castelão, G., Underwood, S., naught101, and Liang, Z.: m-kreuzer/MOM5: Version as used in Kreuzer et al., Geoscientific Model Development publication (gmd-2020-230) (Version 5.1.0_gmd-2020-230), Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3991665, 2020. a
Levermann, A., Albrecht, T., Winkelmann, R., Martin, M. A., Haseloff, M., and Joughin, I.: Kinematic first-order calving law implies potential for abrupt ice-shelf retreat, The Cryosphere, 6, 273–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-273-2012, 2012. a
Lewis, E. L. and Perkin, R. G.: Ice pumps and their rates, J.
Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 91, 11756–11762,
https://doi.org/10.1029/JC091iC10p11756, 1986. a
Lowry, D. P., Golledge, N. R., Bertler, N. A. N., Jones, R. S., and McKay, R.: Deglacial grounding-line retreat in the Ross Embayment, Antarctica,
controlled by ocean and atmosphere forcing, Sci. Adv., 5, eaav8754,
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav8754, 2019. a
MacAyeal, D. R.: Large-scale ice flow over a viscous basal sediment: Theory and application to ice stream B, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 94, 4071–4087, https://doi.org/10.1029/JB094iB04p04071,
1989. a
Martin, T. and Adcroft, A.: Parameterizing the fresh-water flux from land ice
to ocean with interactive icebergs in a coupled climate model, Ocean
Model., 34, 111–124, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2010.05.001, 2010. a
Mouginot, J., Scheuchl, B., and Rignot, E.: Mapping of Ice Motion in Antarctica Using Synthetic-Aperture Radar Data, Remote Sens., 4, 2753–2767,
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs4092753, 2012. a
Murray, R. J.: Explicit Generation of Orthogonal Grids for Ocean Models,
J. Comput. Phys., 126, 251–273, https://doi.org/10.1006/jcph.1996.0136, 1996. a
Nakayama, Y., Menemenlis, D., Zhang, H., Schodlok, M., and Rignot, E.: Origin
of Circumpolar Deep Water intruding onto the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Sea
continental shelves, Nat. Commun., 9, 3403,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05813-1, 2018. a
Naughten, K. A., Rydt, J. D., Rosier, S. H. R., Jenkins, A., Holland, P. R.,
and Ridley, J. K.: Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to
climate change, Nat. Commun., 12, 1991, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22259-0,
2021. a
Nowicki, S., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Payne, A. J., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Asay-Davis, X. S., Barthel, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Cullather, R., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Gregory, J. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Kuipers Munneke, P., Larour, E., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Slater, D., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Trusel, L. D., van den Broeke, M. R., and van de Wal, R.: Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models, The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Olbers, D. and Hellmer, H.: A box model of circulation and melting in ice shelf caverns, Ocean Dynam., 60, 141–153, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-009-0252-z, 2010. a
Pauling, A. G., Bitz, C. M., Smith, I. J., and Langhorne, P. J.: The Response
of the Southern Ocean and Antarctic Sea Ice to Freshwater from Ice Shelves in
an Earth System Model, J. Climate, 29, 1655–1672,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0501.1, 2016. a
Reese, R., Albrecht, T., Mengel, M., Asay-Davis, X., and Winkelmann, R.: Antarctic sub-shelf melt rates via PICO, The Cryosphere, 12, 1969–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, 2018. a, b, c
Reese, R., Levermann, A., Albrecht, T., Seroussi, H., and Winkelmann, R.: The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, The Cryosphere, 14, 3097–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020, 2020. a
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., and Scheuchl, B.: Ice Flow of the Antarctic Ice
Sheet, Science, 333, 1427–1430, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1208336, 2011. a
Rignot, E., Jacobs, S., Mouginot, J., and Scheuchl, B.: Ice-Shelf Melting
Around Antarctica, Science, 341, 266–270, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1235798,
2013. a
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., and Scheuchl, B.: MEaSUREs InSAR-Based Antarctica Ice Velocity Map, Version 2, National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC), https://doi.org/10.5067/D7GK8F5J8M8R, 2017. a
Schmidtko, S., Heywood, K. J., Thompson, A. F., and Aoki, S.: Multidecadal
warming of Antarctic waters, Science, 346, 1227–1231,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1256117, 2014. a
Schulzweida, U., Mueller, R., Heidmann, O., Ansorge, C., Kornblueh, L., Wachsmann, F., Kameswarrao, M., and Quast, R.: Climate Data Operator (CDO) (Version 1.9.6), Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3991595, 2019. a
Seroussi, H., Nakayama, Y., Larour, E., Menemenlis, D., Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., and Khazendar, A.: Continued retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, controlled by bed topography and ocean circulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 6191–6199, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL072910, 2017. a, b
Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020. a
Shapiro, N. M. and Ritzwoller, M. H.: Inferring surface heat flux distributions guided by a global seismic model: particular application to Antarctica, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 223, 213–224,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2004.04.011, 2004. a
Shepherd, A., Ivins, E., Rignot, E., Smith, B., Van den Broeke, M., Whitehouse, P., Briggs, K., Joughin, I., Krinner, G., Nowicki, S., Payne, A., Scambos, T., Schlegel, N., Aa, G., Agosta, C., Ahlstrøm, A., Babonis, G., Barletta, V., Blazquez, A., and Wouters, B.: Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017, Nature, 558, 219–222, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y, 2018. a
Slater, J. A. and Malys, S.: WGS 84 – Past, Present and Future,
in: Advances in Positioning and Reference Frames, Springer Berlin
Heidelberg, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-03714-0_1, 1998. a
Stern, A. A., Adcroft, A., and Sergienko, O.: The effects of Antarctic iceberg calving-size distribution in a global climate model, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 121, 5773–5788, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jc011835, 2016. a
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93,
485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
a
Timmermann, R. and Goeller, S.: Response to Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf cavity warming in a coupled ocean–ice sheet model – Part 1: The ocean perspective, Ocean Sci., 13, 765–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-765-2017, 2017. a
Tournadre, J., Bouhier, N., Girard-Ardhuin, F., and Rémy, F.: Antarctic
icebergs distributions 1992–2014, J. Geophys.
Res.-Oceans, 121, 327–349, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jc011178, 2016. a
van Wessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., Noël, B. P. Y., van Meijgaard, E., Amory, C., Birnbaum, G., Jakobs, C. L., Krüger, K., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lhermitte, S., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Medley, B., Reijmer, C. H., van Tricht, K., Trusel, L. D., van Ulft, L. H., Wouters, B., Wuite, J., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 – Part 2: Antarctica (1979–2016), The Cryosphere, 12, 1479–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, 2018. a
Vizcaíno, M., Lipscomb, W. H., Sacks, W. J., and van den Broeke, M.: Greenland Surface Mass Balance as Simulated by the Community Earth System Model. Part II: Twenty-First-Century Changes, J. Climate, 27, 215–226,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00588.1, 2014. a
Winkelmann, R., Martin, M. A., Haseloff, M., Albrecht, T., Bueler, E., Khroulev, C., and Levermann, A.: The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) – Part 1: Model description, The Cryosphere, 5, 715–726, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-715-2011, 2011. a, b
Winton, M.: A Reformulated Three-Layer Sea Ice Model, J. Atmos.
Ocean. Tech., 17, 525–531, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2000)017<0525:ARTLSI>2.0.CO;2, 2000. a
Zender, C., Vicente, P., hmb1, Wang, D. L., wenshanw, Mao, J., dywei, Fernando, I., Filipe, Couwenberg, B., Neumann, D., jedwards4b, Hegewald, J., Hamman, J., and Oliveira, H.: nco/nco: Paradise Lost (Version 4.7.8), Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1490166, 2018. a
Ziemen, F. A., Kapsch, M.-L., Klockmann, M., and Mikolajewicz, U.: Heinrich events show two-stage climate response in transient glacial simulations, Clim. Past, 15, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-153-2019, 2019. a
Zwally, H. J., Giovinetto, M. B., Beckley, M. A., and Saba, J. L.: Antarctic
and Greenland Drainage Systems, available at: http://icesat4.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo_data/ant_grn_drainage_systems.php (last access: 16 April 2021), 2012. a
Short summary
We present the technical implementation of a coarse-resolution coupling between an ice sheet model and an ocean model that allows one to simulate ice–ocean interactions at timescales from centuries to millennia. As ice shelf cavities cannot be resolved in the ocean model at coarse resolution, we bridge the gap using an sub-shelf cavity module. It is shown that the framework is computationally efficient, conserves mass and energy, and can produce a stable coupled state under present-day forcing.
We present the technical implementation of a coarse-resolution coupling between an ice sheet...
