Articles | Volume 15, issue 12
Model evaluation paper
28 Jun 2022
Model evaluation paper |  | 28 Jun 2022

Assessment of stochastic weather forecast of precipitation near European cities, based on analogs of circulation

Meriem Krouma, Pascal Yiou, Céline Déandreis, and Soulivanh Thao

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Cited articles

Ailliot, P., Allard, D., Monbet, V., and Naveau, P.: Stochastic weather generators: an overview of weather type models, Journal de la Société Française de Statistique, 156, 101–113, 2015. a, b
Ardilouze, C., Specq, D., Batté, L., and Cassou, C.: Flow dependence of wintertime subseasonal prediction skill over Europe, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1033–1049,, 2021. a, b
Atencia, A. and Zawadzki, I.: A comparison of two techniques for generating nowcasting ensembles. Part I: Lagrangian ensemble technique, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 4036–4052, 2014. a
Blanchet, J., Stalla, S., and Creutin, J.-D.: Analogy of multiday sequences of atmospheric circulation favoring large rainfall accumulation over the French Alps, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 19, e809,, 2018. a
Cassou, C., Minvielle, M., Terray, L., and Périgaud, C.: A statistical–dynamical scheme for reconstructing ocean forcing in the Atlantic. Part I: weather regimes as predictors for ocean surface variables, Clim. Dynam., 36, 19–39,, 2011. a
Short summary
We evaluated the skill of a stochastic weather generator (SWG) to forecast precipitation at different time scales and in different areas of western Europe from analogs of Z500 hPa. The SWG has the skill to simulate precipitation for 5 and 10 d. We found that forecast weaknesses can be associated with specific weather patterns. The comparison with ECMWF forecasts confirms the skill of our model. This work is important because it provides information about weather forecasts over specific areas.