Articles | Volume 10, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1091-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1091-2017
Model description paper
 | 
10 Mar 2017
Model description paper |  | 10 Mar 2017

Development of a probabilistic ocean modelling system based on NEMO 3.5: application at eddying resolution

Laurent Bessières, Stéphanie Leroux, Jean-Michel Brankart, Jean-Marc Molines, Marie-Pierre Moine, Pierre-Antoine Bouttier, Thierry Penduff, Laurent Terray, Bernard Barnier, and Guillaume Sérazin

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Cited articles

Barnier, B., Siefridt, L., and Marchesiello, P.: Thermal forcing for a global ocean circulation model using a three-year climatology of ECMWF analyses, J. Mar. Syst., 6, 363–380, https://doi.org/10.1016/0924-7963(94)00034-9, 1995.
Bertino, L., Evensen, G., and Wackernagel, H.: Sequential data assimilation techniques in oceanography, Int. Stat. Rev., 71, 223–241, 2003.
Brankart, J.-M.: Impact of uncertainties in the horizontal density gradient upon low resolution global ocean modelling, Ocean Model., 66, 64–76, 2013.
Brankart, J.-M., Testut, C.-E., Béal, D., Doron, M., Fontana, C., Meinvielle, M., Brasseur, P., and Verron, J.: Towards an improved description of ocean uncertainties: effect of local anamorphic transformations on spatial correlations, Ocean Sci., 8, 121–142, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-8-121-2012, 2012.
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Short summary
A new, probabilistic version of an ocean modelling system has been implemented in order to simulate the chaotic and the atmospherically forced contributions to the ocean variability. For that purpose, a large ensemble of global hindcasts has been performed. Results illustrate the importance of the oceanic chaos on climate-related oceanic indices, and the relevance of such probabilistic ocean modelling approaches to anticipating the behaviour of the next generation of coupled climate models.