Articles | Volume 7, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2157-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2157-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
25 Sep 2014
Model description paper |
| 25 Sep 2014
The coupled atmosphere–chemistry–ocean model SOCOL-MPIOM
S. Muthers
Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
J. G. Anet
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
now at: Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (Empa), Dübendorf, Switzerland
A. Stenke
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
C. C. Raible
Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
E. Rozanov
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos and World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos, Switzerland
S. Brönnimann
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
T. Peter
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
F. X. Arfeuille
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
now at: Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (Empa), Dübendorf, Switzerland
A. I. Shapiro
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos and World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos, Switzerland
Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland
F. Steinhilber
Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland
Y. Brugnara
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
W. Schmutz
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos and World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos, Switzerland
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Eric Samakinwa, Christoph C. Raible, Ralf Hand, Andrew R. Friedman, and Stefan Brönnimann
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Marina Friedel, Gabriel Chiodo, Timofei Sukhodolov, James Keeble, Thomas Peter, Svenja Seeber, Andrea Stenke, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Eugene Rozanov, David Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, and Béatrice Josse
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Previously, it has been suggested that springtime Arctic ozone depletion might worsen in the coming decades due to climate change, which might counteract the effect of reduced ozone-depleting substances. Here, we show with different chemistry–climate models that springtime Arctic ozone depletion will likely decrease in the future. Further, we explain why models show a large spread in the projected development of Arctic ozone depletion and use the model spread to constrain future projections.
Ralf Hand, Eric Samakinwa, Laura Lipfert, and Stefan Brönnimann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4853–4866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4853-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4853-2023, 2023
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Stefan Brönnimann and Yuri Brugnara
Clim. Past, 19, 1435–1445, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1435-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1435-2023, 2023
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We present the weather diaries of the Kirch family from 1677–1774 containing weather observations made in Leipzig and Guben and, from 1701 onward, instrumental observations made in Berlin. We publish the imaged diaries (10 445 images) and the digitized measurements (from 1720 onward). This is one of the oldest and longest meteorological records from Germany. The digitized pressure data show good agreement with neighbouring stations, highlighting their potential for weather reconstruction.
Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 19, 1345–1357, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1345-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1345-2023, 2023
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Weather reconstructions could help us to better understand the mechanisms leading to, and the impacts caused by, climatic changes. This requires daily weather information such as diaries. Here I present the weather diary by Georg Christoph Eimmart from Nuremberg covering the period 1695–1704. This was a particularly cold period in Europe, and the diary helps to better characterize this climatic anomaly.
Tatiana Egorova, Jan Sedlacek, Timofei Sukhodolov, Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Franziska Zilker, and Eugene Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5135–5147, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5135-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5135-2023, 2023
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Anand Kumar, Kristian Klumpp, Chen Barak, Giora Rytwo, Michael Plötze, Thomas Peter, and Claudia Marcolli
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Smectites are a major class of clay minerals that are ice nucleation (IN) active. They form platelets that swell or even delaminate in water by intercalation of water between their layers. We hypothesize that at least three smectite layers need to be stacked together to host a critical ice embryo on clay mineral edges and that the larger the surface edge area is, the higher the freezing temperature. Edge sites on such clay particles play a crucial role in imparting IN ability to such particles.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Timofei Sukhodolov, Tatiana Egorova, Jan Sedlacek, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4801–4817, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4801-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4801-2023, 2023
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The future ozone evolution in SOCOLv4 simulations under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios has been assessed for the period 2015–2099 and subperiods using the DLM approach. The SOCOLv4 projects a decline in tropospheric ozone in the 2030s in SSP2-4.5 and in the 2060s in SSP5-8.5. The stratospheric ozone increase is ~3 times higher in SSP5-8.5, confirming the important role of GHGs in ozone evolution. We also showed that tropospheric ozone strongly impacts the total column in the tropics.
Andrey V. Koval, Olga N. Toptunova, Maxim A. Motsakov, Ksenia A. Didenko, Tatiana S. Ermakova, Nikolai M. Gavrilov, and Eugene V. Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4105–4114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4105-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4105-2023, 2023
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Periodic changes in all hydrodynamic parameters are constantly observed in the atmosphere. The amplitude of these fluctuations increases with height due to a decrease in the atmospheric density. In the upper layers of the atmosphere, waves are the dominant form of motion. We use a model of the general circulation of the atmosphere to study the contribution to the formation of the dynamic and temperature regimes of the middle and upper atmosphere made by different global-scale atmospheric waves.
Noemi Imfeld, Lucas Pfister, Yuri Brugnara, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 19, 703–729, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-703-2023, 2023
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Climate reconstructions give insights into monthly and seasonal climate variability of the past few hundred years. However, to understand past extreme weather events and to relate them to impacts, for example to periods of extreme floods, reconstructions on a daily timescale are needed. Here, we present a reconstruction of 258 years of high-resolution daily temperature and precipitation fields for Switzerland covering the period 1763 to 2020, which is based on instrumental measurements.
Jonathan Robert Buzan, Emmanuele Russo, Woon Mi Kim, and Christoph C. Raible
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-324, 2023
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Paleoclimate is used to test climate models to verify that simulations accurately project both future and past climate states. We present fully coupled climate sensitivity simulations of Preindustrial, Last Glacial Maximum, and the Quaternary climate periods. We show distinct climate states derived from non-linear responses to ice sheet heights and orbits. The implication is that as paleo proxy data become more reliable, they may constrain the specific climate states produced by climate models.
Moritz Buchmann, Gernot Resch, Michael Begert, Stefan Brönnimann, Barbara Chimani, Wolfgang Schöner, and Christoph Marty
The Cryosphere, 17, 653–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-653-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-653-2023, 2023
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Our current knowledge of spatial and temporal snow depth trends is based almost exclusively on time series of non-homogenised observational data. However, like other long-term series from observations, they are susceptible to inhomogeneities that can affect the trends and even change the sign. To assess the relevance of homogenisation for daily snow depths, we investigated its impact on trends and changes in extreme values of snow indices between 1961 and 2021 in the Swiss observation network.
Kristian Klumpp, Claudia Marcolli, Ana Alonso-Hellweg, Christopher H. Dreimol, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1579–1598, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1579-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1579-2023, 2023
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The prerequisites of a particle surface for efficient ice nucleation are still poorly understood. This study compares the ice nucleation activity of two chemically identical but morphologically different minerals (kaolinite and halloysite). We observe, on average, not only higher ice nucleation activities for halloysite than kaolinite but also higher diversity between individual samples. We identify the particle edges as being the most likely site for ice nucleation.
Ilaria Quaglia, Claudia Timmreck, Ulrike Niemeier, Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Christina Brodowsky, Christoph Brühl, Sandip S. Dhomse, Henning Franke, Anton Laakso, Graham W. Mann, Eugene Rozanov, and Timofei Sukhodolov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 921–948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-921-2023, 2023
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The last very large explosive volcanic eruption we have measurements for is the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. It is therefore often used as a benchmark for climate models' ability to reproduce these kinds of events. Here, we compare available measurements with the results from multiple experiments conducted with climate models interactively simulating the aerosol cloud formation.
Jianquan Dong, Stefan Brönnimann, Tao Hu, Yanxu Liu, and Jian Peng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5651–5664, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5651-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5651-2022, 2022
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We produced a new dataset of global station-based daily maximum wet-bulb temperature (GSDM-WBT) through the calculation of wet-bulb temperature, data quality control, infilling missing values, and homogenization. The GSDM-WBT covers the complete daily series of 1834 stations from 1981 to 2020. The GSDM-WBT dataset handles stations with many missing values and possible inhomogeneities, which could better support the studies on global and regional humid heat events.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Timofei Sukhodolov, Tatiana Egorova, Jan Sedlacek, William Ball, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15333–15350, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15333-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15333-2022, 2022
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Applying the dynamic linear model, we confirm near-global ozone recovery (55°N–55°S) in the mesosphere, upper and middle stratosphere, and a steady increase in the troposphere. We also show that modern chemistry–climate models (CCMs) like SOCOLv4 may reproduce the observed trend distribution of lower stratospheric ozone, despite exhibiting a lower magnitude and statistical significance. The obtained ozone trend pattern in SOCOLv4 is generally consistent with observations and reanalysis datasets.
Duncan Pappert, Mariano Barriendos, Yuri Brugnara, Noemi Imfeld, Sylvie Jourdain, Rajmund Przybylak, Christian Rohr, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 18, 2545–2565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2545-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2545-2022, 2022
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We present daily temperature and sea level pressure fields for Europe for the severe winter 1788/1789 based on historical meteorological measurements and an analogue reconstruction approach. The resulting reconstruction skilfully reproduces temperature and pressure variations over central and western Europe. We find intense blocking systems over northern Europe and several abrupt, strong cold air outbreaks, demonstrating that quantitative weather reconstruction of past extremes is possible.
Nikou Hamzehpour, Claudia Marcolli, Sara Pashai, Kristian Klumpp, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14905–14930, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14905-2022, 2022
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Playa surfaces in Iran that emerged through Lake Urmia (LU) desiccation have become a relevant dust source of regional relevance. Here, we identify highly erodible LU playa surfaces and determine their physicochemical properties and mineralogical composition and perform emulsion-freezing experiments with them. We find high ice nucleation activities (up to 250 K) that correlate positively with organic matter and clay content and negatively with pH, salinity, K-feldspars, and quartz.
Nikou Hamzehpour, Claudia Marcolli, Kristian Klumpp, Debora Thöny, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14931–14956, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14931-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14931-2022, 2022
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Dust aerosols from dried lakebeds contain mineral particles, as well as soluble salts and (bio-)organic compounds. Here, we investigate ice nucleation (IN) activity of dust samples from Lake Urmia playa, Iran. We find high IN activity of the untreated samples that decreases after organic matter removal but increases after removing soluble salts and carbonates, evidencing inhibiting effects of soluble salts and carbonates on the IN activity of organic matter and minerals, especially microcline.
Chantal Camenisch, Fernando Jaume-Santero, Sam White, Qing Pei, Ralf Hand, Christian Rohr, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 18, 2449–2462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2449-2022, 2022
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We present a novel approach to assimilate climate information contained in chronicles and annals from the 15th century to generate climate reconstructions of the Burgundian Low Countries, taking into account uncertainties associated with the descriptions of narrative sources. Our study aims to be a first step towards a more quantitative use of available information contained in historical texts, showing how Bayesian inference can help the climate community with this endeavor.
Marina Friedel, Gabriel Chiodo, Andrea Stenke, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13997–14017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13997-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13997-2022, 2022
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In spring, winds the Arctic stratosphere change direction – an event called final stratospheric warming (FSW). Here, we examine whether the interannual variability in Arctic stratospheric ozone impacts the timing of the FSW. We find that Arctic ozone shifts the FSW to earlier and later dates in years with high and low ozone via the absorption of UV light. The modulation of the FSW by ozone has consequences for surface climate in ozone-rich years, which may result in better seasonal predictions.
Yuri Brugnara, Chantal Hari, Lucas Pfister, Veronika Valler, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 18, 2357–2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2357-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2357-2022, 2022
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We digitized dozens of weather journals containing temperature measurements from in and around Bern and Zurich. They cover over a century before the creation of a national weather service in Switzerland. With these data we could create daily temperature series for the two cities that span the last 265 years. We found that the pre-industrial climate on the Swiss Plateau was colder than suggested by previously available instrumental data sets and about 2.5 °C colder than the present-day climate.
Clare E. Singer, Benjamin W. Clouser, Sergey M. Khaykin, Martina Krämer, Francesco Cairo, Thomas Peter, Alexey Lykov, Christian Rolf, Nicole Spelten, Armin Afchine, Simone Brunamonti, and Elisabeth J. Moyer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 4767–4783, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4767-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4767-2022, 2022
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In situ measurements of water vapor in the upper troposphere are necessary to study cloud formation and hydration of the stratosphere but challenging due to cold–dry conditions. We compare measurements from three water vapor instruments from the StratoClim campaign in 2017. In clear sky (clouds), point-by-point differences were <1.5±8 % (<1±8 %). This excellent agreement allows detection of fine-scale structures required to understand the impact of convection on stratospheric water vapor.
Patricio Velasquez, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, 2022
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We investigate the sensitivity of the glacial Alpine hydro-climate to northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet changes. We perform sensitivity simulations of up to 2 km horizontal resolution over the Alps for glacial periods. The findings demonstrate that northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet topography are important role in regulating the Alpine hydro-climate and permits a better understanding of the Alpine precipitation patterns at glacial times.
Helen Mackay, Gill Plunkett, Britta J. L. Jensen, Thomas J. Aubry, Christophe Corona, Woon Mi Kim, Matthew Toohey, Michael Sigl, Markus Stoffel, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Christoph Raible, Matthew S. M. Bolton, Joseph G. Manning, Timothy P. Newfield, Nicola Di Cosmo, Francis Ludlow, Conor Kostick, Zhen Yang, Lisa Coyle McClung, Matthew Amesbury, Alistair Monteath, Paul D. M. Hughes, Pete G. Langdon, Dan Charman, Robert Booth, Kimberley L. Davies, Antony Blundell, and Graeme T. Swindles
Clim. Past, 18, 1475–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, 2022
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We assess the climatic and societal impact of the 852/3 CE Alaska Mount Churchill eruption using environmental reconstructions, historical records and climate simulations. The eruption is associated with significant Northern Hemisphere summer cooling, despite having only a moderate sulfate-based climate forcing potential; however, evidence of a widespread societal response is lacking. We discuss the difficulties of confirming volcanic impacts of a single eruption even when it is precisely dated.
Gilles Delaygue, Stefan Brönnimann, and Philip D. Jones
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-33, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-33, 2022
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We test whether any association between solar activity and meteorological conditions in the north Atlantic – European sector could be detected. We find associations consistent with those found by previous studies, with a slightly better statistical significance, and with less methodological biases which have impaired previous studies. Our study should help strengthen the recognition of meteorological impacts of solar activity.
Moritz Buchmann, John Coll, Johannes Aschauer, Michael Begert, Stefan Brönnimann, Barbara Chimani, Gernot Resch, Wolfgang Schöner, and Christoph Marty
The Cryosphere, 16, 2147–2161, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2147-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2147-2022, 2022
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Knowledge about inhomogeneities in a data set is important for any subsequent climatological analysis. We ran three well-established homogenization methods and compared the identified break points. By only treating breaks as valid when detected by at least two out of three methods, we enhanced the robustness of our results. We found 45 breaks within 42 of 184 investigated series; of these 70 % could be explained by events recorded in the station history.
Irina Mironova, Miriam Sinnhuber, Galina Bazilevskaya, Mark Clilverd, Bernd Funke, Vladimir Makhmutov, Eugene Rozanov, Michelle L. Santee, Timofei Sukhodolov, and Thomas Ulich
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6703–6716, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6703-2022, 2022
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From balloon measurements, we detected unprecedented, extremely powerful, electron precipitation over the middle latitudes. The robustness of this event is confirmed by satellite observations of electron fluxes and chemical composition, as well as by ground-based observations of the radio signal propagation. The applied chemistry–climate model shows the almost complete destruction of ozone in the mesosphere over the region where high-energy electrons were observed.
Stefan Brönnimann, Peter Stucki, Jörg Franke, Veronika Valler, Yuri Brugnara, Ralf Hand, Laura C. Slivinski, Gilbert P. Compo, Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, Michel Lang, and Bettina Schaefli
Clim. Past, 18, 919–933, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-919-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-919-2022, 2022
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Floods in Europe vary on time scales of several decades. Flood-rich and flood-poor periods alternate. Recently floods have again become more frequent. Long time series of peak stream flow, precipitation, and atmospheric variables reveal that until around 1980, these changes were mostly due to changes in atmospheric circulation. However, in recent decades the role of increasing atmospheric moisture due to climate warming has become more important and is now the main driver of flood changes.
Emmanuele Russo, Bijan Fallah, Patrick Ludwig, Melanie Karremann, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 895–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, 2022
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In this study a set of simulations are performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for Europe, for the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods. The main aim is to better understand the drivers of differences between models and pollen-based summer temperatures. Results show that a fundamental role is played by spring soil moisture availability. Additionally, results suggest that model bias is not stationary, and an optimal configuration could not be the best under different forcing.
Daniel Steinfeld, Adrian Peter, Olivia Martius, and Stefan Brönnimann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-92, 2022
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We assess the performance of various fire weather indices to predict wildfire occurrence in Northern Switzerland. We find that indices responding readily to weather changes have the best performance during spring; in the summer and autumn seasons, indices that describe persistent hot and dry conditions perform best. We demonstrate that a logistic regression model trained on local historical fire activity can outperform existing fire weather indices.
Santos J. González-Rojí, Martina Messmer, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2859–2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2859-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2859-2022, 2022
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Different configurations of physics parameterizations of a regional climate model are tested over southern Peru at fine resolution. The most challenging regions compared to observational data are the slopes of the Andes. Model configurations for Europe and East Africa are not perfectly suitable for southern Peru. The experiment with the Stony Brook University microphysics scheme and the Grell–Freitas cumulus parameterization provides the most accurate results over Madre de Dios.
Kristian Klumpp, Claudia Marcolli, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3655–3673, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3655-2022, 2022
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Surface interactions with solutes can significantly alter the ice nucleation activity of mineral dust. Past studies revealed the sensitivity of microcline, one of the most ice-active types of dust in the atmosphere, to inorganic solutes. This study focuses on the interaction of microcline with bio-organic substances and the resulting effects on its ice nucleation activity. We observe strongly hampered ice nucleation activity due to the presence of carboxylic and amino acids but not for polyols.
Debra K. Weisenstein, Daniele Visioni, Henning Franke, Ulrike Niemeier, Sandro Vattioni, Gabriel Chiodo, Thomas Peter, and David W. Keith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2955–2973, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2955-2022, 2022
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This paper explores a potential method of geoengineering that could be used to slow the rate of change of climate over decadal scales. We use three climate models to explore how injections of accumulation-mode sulfuric acid aerosol change the large-scale stratospheric particle size distribution and radiative forcing response for the chosen scenarios. Radiative forcing per unit sulfur injected and relative to the change in aerosol burden is larger with particulate than with SO2 injections.
Kseniia Golubenko, Eugene Rozanov, Gennady Kovaltsov, Ari-Pekka Leppänen, Timofei Sukhodolov, and Ilya Usoskin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7605–7620, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7605-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7605-2021, 2021
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A new full 3-D time-dependent model, based on SOCOL-AERv2, of beryllium atmospheric production, transport, and deposition has been developed and validated using directly measured data. The model is recommended to be used in studies related to, e.g., atmospheric dynamical patterns, extreme solar particle storms, long-term solar activity reconstruction from cosmogenic proxy data, and solar–terrestrial relations.
Duncan Pappert, Yuri Brugnara, Sylvie Jourdain, Aleksandra Pospieszyńska, Rajmund Przybylak, Christian Rohr, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 17, 2361–2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2361-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2361-2021, 2021
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This paper presents temperature and pressure measurements from the 37 stations of the late 18th century network of the Societas Meteorologica Palatina, in addition to providing an inventory of the available observations, most of which have been digitised. The quality of the recovered series is relatively good, as demonstrated by two case studies. Early instrumental data such as these will help to explore past climate and weather extremes in Europe in greater detail.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Timofei Sukhodolov, Tatiana Egorova, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, Carlos A. Cuevas, Rafael P. Fernandez, Tomás Sherwen, Rainer Volkamer, Theodore K. Koenig, Tanguy Giroud, and Thomas Peter
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6623–6645, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6623-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6623-2021, 2021
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Here, we present the iodine chemistry module in the SOCOL-AERv2 model. The obtained iodine distribution demonstrated a good agreement when validated against other simulations and available observations. We also estimated the iodine influence on ozone in the case of present-day iodine emissions, the sensitivity of ozone to doubled iodine emissions, and when considering only organic or inorganic iodine sources. The new model can be used as a tool for further studies of iodine effects on ozone.
Woon Mi Kim, Richard Blender, Michael Sigl, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 2031–2053, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2031-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2031-2021, 2021
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To understand the natural characteristics and future changes of the global extreme daily precipitation, it is necessary to explore the long-term characteristics of extreme daily precipitation. Here, we used climate simulations to analyze the characteristics and long-term changes of extreme precipitation during the past 3351 years. Our findings indicate that extreme precipitation in the past is associated with internal climate variability and regional surface temperatures.
Moritz Buchmann, Michael Begert, Stefan Brönnimann, and Christoph Marty
The Cryosphere, 15, 4625–4636, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4625-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4625-2021, 2021
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We investigated the impacts of local-scale variations by analysing snow climate indicators derived from parallel snow measurements. We found the largest relative inter-pair differences for all indicators in spring and the smallest in winter. The findings serve as an important basis for our understanding of uncertainties of commonly used snow indicators and provide, in combination with break-detection methods, the groundwork in view of any homogenization efforts regarding snow time series.
Timofei Sukhodolov, Tatiana Egorova, Andrea Stenke, William T. Ball, Christina Brodowsky, Gabriel Chiodo, Aryeh Feinberg, Marina Friedel, Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Thomas Peter, Jan Sedlacek, Sandro Vattioni, and Eugene Rozanov
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5525–5560, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5525-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5525-2021, 2021
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This paper features the new atmosphere–ocean–aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOLv4.0 and its validation. The model performance is evaluated against reanalysis products and observations of atmospheric circulation and trace gas distribution, with a focus on stratospheric processes. Although we identified some problems to be addressed in further model upgrades, we demonstrated that SOCOLv4.0 is already well suited for studies related to chemistry–climate–aerosol interactions.
Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Davide Zanchettin, Stefan Brönnimann, Elin Lundstad, and Rob Wilson
Clim. Past, 17, 1455–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1455-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1455-2021, 2021
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The 1809 eruption is one of the most recent unidentified volcanic eruptions with a global climate impact. We demonstrate that climate model simulations of the 1809 eruption show generally good agreement with many large-scale temperature reconstructions and early instrumental records for a range of radiative forcing estimates. In terms of explaining the spatially heterogeneous and temporally delayed Northern Hemisphere cooling suggested by tree-ring networks, the investigation remains open.
Patricio Velasquez, Jed O. Kaplan, Martina Messmer, Patrick Ludwig, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 1161–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, 2021
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This study assesses the importance of resolution and land–atmosphere feedbacks for European climate. We performed an asynchronously coupled experiment that combined a global climate model (~ 100 km), a regional climate model (18 km), and a dynamic vegetation model (18 km). Modelled climate and land cover agree reasonably well with independent reconstructions based on pollen and other paleoenvironmental proxies. The regional climate is significantly influenced by land cover.
Noemi Imfeld, Leopold Haimberger, Alexander Sterin, Yuri Brugnara, and Stefan Brönnimann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2471–2485, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2471-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2471-2021, 2021
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Upper-air data form the backbone of reanalysis products, particularly in the pre-satellite era. However, historical upper-air data are error-prone because measurements at high altitude were especially challenging. Here, we present a collection of data from historical intercomparisons of radiosondes and error assessments reaching back to the 1930s that may allow us to better characterize such errors. The full database, including digitized data, images, and metadata, is made publicly available.
Martina Messmer, Santos J. González-Rojí, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2691–2711, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, 2021
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Sensitivity experiments with the WRF model are run to find an optimal parameterization setup for precipitation around Mount Kenya at a scale that resolves convection (1 km). Precipitation is compared against many weather stations and gridded observational data sets. Both the temporal correlation of precipitation sums and pattern correlations show that fewer nests lead to a more constrained simulation with higher correlation. The Grell–Freitas cumulus scheme obtains the most accurate results.
Woon Mi Kim and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 887–911, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-887-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-887-2021, 2021
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The analysis of the dynamics of western central Mediterranean droughts for 850–2099 CE in the Community Earth System Model indicates that past Mediterranean droughts were driven by the internal variability. This internal variability is more important during the initial years of droughts. During the transition years, the longevity of droughts is defined by the land–atmosphere feedbacks. In the future, this land–atmosphere feedbacks are intensified, causing a constant dryness over the region.
Margot Clyne, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Michael J. Mills, Myriam Khodri, William Ball, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Nicolas Lebas, Graham Mann, Lauren Marshall, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Fiona Tummon, Davide Zanchettin, Yunqian Zhu, and Owen B. Toon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3317–3343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, 2021
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This study finds how and why five state-of-the-art global climate models with interactive stratospheric aerosols differ when simulating the aftermath of large volcanic injections as part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP). We identify and explain the consequences of significant disparities in the underlying physics and chemistry currently in some of the models, which are problems likely not unique to the models participating in this study.
Manuel Graf, Philipp Scheidegger, André Kupferschmid, Herbert Looser, Thomas Peter, Ruud Dirksen, Lukas Emmenegger, and Béla Tuzson
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 1365–1378, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-1365-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-1365-2021, 2021
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Water vapor is the most important natural greenhouse gas. The accurate and frequent measurement of its abundance, especially in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), is technically challenging. We developed and characterized a mid-IR absorption spectrometer for highly accurate water vapor measurements in the UTLS. The instrument is sufficiently small and lightweight (3.9 kg) to be carried by meteorological balloons, which enables frequent and cost-effective soundings.
Michael Steiner, Beiping Luo, Thomas Peter, Michael C. Pitts, and Andrea Stenke
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 935–959, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-935-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-935-2021, 2021
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We evaluate polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) as simulated by the chemistry–climate model (CCM) SOCOLv3.1 in comparison with measurements by the CALIPSO satellite. A cold bias results in an overestimated PSC area and mountain-wave ice is underestimated, but we find overall good temporal and spatial agreement of PSC occurrence and composition. This work confirms previous studies indicating that simplified PSC schemes may also achieve good approximations of the fundamental properties of PSCs.
Teresa Jorge, Simone Brunamonti, Yann Poltera, Frank G. Wienhold, Bei P. Luo, Peter Oelsner, Sreeharsha Hanumanthu, Bhupendra B. Singh, Susanne Körner, Ruud Dirksen, Manish Naja, Suvarna Fadnavis, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 239–268, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-239-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-239-2021, 2021
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Balloon-borne frost point hygrometers are crucial for the monitoring of water vapour in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. We found that when traversing a mixed-phase cloud with big supercooled droplets, the intake tube of the instrument collects on its inner surface a high percentage of these droplets. The newly formed ice layer will sublimate at higher levels and contaminate the measurement. The balloon is also a source of contamination, but only at higher levels during the ascent.
Jing Dou, Peter A. Alpert, Pablo Corral Arroyo, Beiping Luo, Frederic Schneider, Jacinta Xto, Thomas Huthwelker, Camelia N. Borca, Katja D. Henzler, Jörg Raabe, Benjamin Watts, Hartmut Herrmann, Thomas Peter, Markus Ammann, and Ulrich K. Krieger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 315–338, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-315-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-315-2021, 2021
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Photochemistry of iron(III) complexes plays an important role in aerosol aging, especially in the lower troposphere. Ensuing radical chemistry leads to decarboxylation, and the production of peroxides, and oxygenated volatile compounds, resulting in particle mass loss due to release of the volatile products to the gas phase. We investigated kinetic transport limitations due to high particle viscosity under low relative humidity conditions. For quantification a numerical model was developed.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Ales Kuchar, William Ball, Pavle Arsenovic, Ellis Remsberg, Patrick Jöckel, Markus Kunze, David A. Plummer, Andrea Stenke, Daniel Marsh, Doug Kinnison, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 201–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, 2021
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The solar signal in the mesospheric H2O and CO was extracted from the CCMI-1 model simulations and satellite observations using multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. MLR analysis shows a pronounced and statistically robust solar signal in both H2O and CO. The model results show a general agreement with observations reproducing a negative/positive solar signal in H2O/CO. The pattern of the solar signal varies among the considered models, reflecting some differences in the model setup.
Jakob Zscheischler, Philippe Naveau, Olivia Martius, Sebastian Engelke, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, 2021
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Compound extremes such as heavy precipitation and extreme winds can lead to large damage. To date it is unclear how well climate models represent such compound extremes. Here we present a new measure to assess differences in the dependence structure of bivariate extremes. This measure is applied to assess differences in the dependence of compound precipitation and wind extremes between three model simulations and one reanalysis dataset in a domain in central Europe.
Emmanuele Russo, Silje Lund Sørland, Ingo Kirchner, Martijn Schaap, Christoph C. Raible, and Ulrich Cubasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5779–5797, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, 2020
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The parameter space of the COSMO-CLM RCM is investigated for the Central Asia CORDEX domain using a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) with different parameter values. Results show that only a subset of model parameters presents relevant changes in model performance and these changes depend on the considered region and variable: objective calibration methods are highly necessary in this case. Additionally, the results suggest the need for calibrating an RCM when targeting different domains.
Stefan Brönnimann and Sylvia Nichol
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14333–14346, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14333-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14333-2020, 2020
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Historical column ozone data from New Zealand and the UK from the 1950s are digitised and re-evaluated. They allow studying the ozone layer prior to the era of ozone depletion. Day-to-day changes are addressed, which reflect the flow near the tropopause and hence may serve as a diagnostic for atmospheric circulation in a time and region of sparse radiosondes. A long-term comparison shows the amount of ozone depletion at southern mid-latitudes and indicates how far we are from full recovery.
Sreeharsha Hanumanthu, Bärbel Vogel, Rolf Müller, Simone Brunamonti, Suvarna Fadnavis, Dan Li, Peter Ölsner, Manish Naja, Bhupendra Bahadur Singh, Kunchala Ravi Kumar, Sunil Sonbawne, Hannu Jauhiainen, Holger Vömel, Beiping Luo, Teresa Jorge, Frank G. Wienhold, Ruud Dirkson, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14273–14302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14273-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14273-2020, 2020
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During boreal summer, anthropogenic sources yield the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL), found in Asia between about 13 and 18 km altitude. Balloon-borne measurements of the ATAL conducted in northern India in 2016 show the strong variability of the ATAL. To explain its observed variability, model simulations are performed to deduce the origin of air masses on the Earth's surface, which is important to develop recommendations for regulations of anthropogenic surface emissions of the ATAL.
Patricio Velasquez, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5007–5027, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5007-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5007-2020, 2020
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This work presents a new bias-correction method for precipitation that considers orographic characteristics, which can be used in studies where the latter strongly changes. The three-step correction method consists of a separation into orographic features, correction of low-intensity precipitation, and application of empirical quantile mapping. Seasonal bias induced by the global climate model is fully corrected. Rigorous cross-validations illustrate the method's applicability and robustness.
Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 16, 1937–1952, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1937-2020, 2020
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Scientists often reconstruct climate from proxy data such as tree rings or historical documents. Here, I do the reverse and produce a weather diary from historical numerical weather data. Such "synthetic weather diaries" may be useful for historians, e.g. to compare with other sources or to study the weather experienced during a journey or a military operation. They could also help train machine-learning approaches, which could then be used to reconstruct weather from historical diaries.
William T. Ball, Gabriel Chiodo, Marta Abalos, Justin Alsing, and Andrea Stenke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9737–9752, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9737-2020, 2020
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Recent lower stratospheric ozone decreases remain unexplained. We show that chemistry–climate models are not generally able to reproduce mid-latitude ozone and water vapour changes. Our analysis of observations provides evidence that climate change may be responsible for the ozone trends. While model projections suggest that extratropical ozone should recover by 2100, our study raises questions about their efficacy in simulating lower stratospheric changes in this region.
Veronika Valler, Yuri Brugnara, Jörg Franke, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 16, 1309–1323, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1309-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1309-2020, 2020
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Data assimilation is becoming more and more important for past climate reconstructions. The assimilation of monthly resolved precipitation information has not been explored much so far. In this study we analyze the impact of assimilating monthly precipitation amounts and the number of wet days within an existing paleoclimate data assimilation framework. We find increased skill in the reconstruction, suggesting that monthly precipitation can constitute valuable input for future reconstructions.
Eliane Maillard Barras, Alexander Haefele, Liliane Nguyen, Fiona Tummon, William T. Ball, Eugene V. Rozanov, Rolf Rüfenacht, Klemens Hocke, Leonie Bernet, Niklaus Kämpfer, Gerald Nedoluha, and Ian Boyd
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8453–8471, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8453-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8453-2020, 2020
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To determine the part of the variability of the long-term ozone profile trends coming from measurement timing, we estimate microwave radiometer trends for each hour of the day with a multiple linear regression model. The variation in the trend with local solar time is not significant at the 95 % confidence level either in the stratosphere or in the low mesosphere. We conclude that systematic sampling differences between instruments cannot explain significant differences in trend estimates.
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Vincenzo Rizi, Marco Iarlori, Irene Cionni, Ilaria Quaglia, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando Garcia, Patrick Joeckel, Douglas Kinnison, Jean-François Lamarque, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Tatsuya Nagashima, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David Plummer, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
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In this work we analyse the trend in ozone profiles taken at L'Aquila (Italy, 42.4° N) for seventeen years, between 2000 and 2016 and compare them against already available measured ozone trends. We try to understand and explain the observed trends at various heights in light of the simulations from seventeen different model, highlighting the contribution of changes in circulation and chemical ozone loss during this time period.
Jörg Franke, Veronika Valler, Stefan Brönnimann, Raphael Neukom, and Fernando Jaume-Santero
Clim. Past, 16, 1061–1074, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1061-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1061-2020, 2020
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This study explores the influence of the input data choice on spatial climate reconstructions. We compare three tree-ring-based data sets which range from small sample size, small spatial coverage and strict screening for temperature sensitivity to the opposite. We achieve the best spatial reconstruction quality by combining all available input data but rejecting records with little and uncertain climatic information and considering moisture availability as an additional growth limitation.
Nir Bluvshtein, Ulrich K. Krieger, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 3191–3203, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-3191-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-3191-2020, 2020
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Light-absorbing organic particles undergo transformations during their exposure in the atmosphere. The role these particles play in the global radiative balance is uncertain. This study describes high-sensitivity and high-precision measurements of light absorption by a single particle levitated in an electrodynamic balance. This high level of sensitivity enables future studies to explore the major processes responsible for changes to the particle's light absorptivity.
Yuri Brugnara, Lucas Pfister, Leonie Villiger, Christian Rohr, Francesco Alessandro Isotta, and Stefan Brönnimann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1179–1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1179-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1179-2020, 2020
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Early instrumental meteorological observations in Switzerland made before 1863, the year a national station network was created, were until recently largely unexplored. After a systematic compilation of the documents available in Swiss archives, we digitised a large part of the data so that they can be used in climate research. In this paper we give an overview of the development of meteorological observations in Switzerland and describe our approach to convert them into modern units.
Thomas L. Frölicher, Luca Ramseyer, Christoph C. Raible, Keith B. Rodgers, and John Dunne
Biogeosciences, 17, 2061–2083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020, 2020
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Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems. Here we show that on global scales marine ecosystem drivers such as temperature, pH, O2 and NPP are potentially predictable 3 (at the surface) and more than 10 years (subsurface) in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Our study suggests that physical–biogeochemical forecast systems have considerable potential for use in marine resource management.
Lucas Pfister, Stefan Brönnimann, Mikhaël Schwander, Francesco Alessandro Isotta, Pascal Horton, and Christian Rohr
Clim. Past, 16, 663–678, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-663-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-663-2020, 2020
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This paper aims to reconstruct high-resolution daily precipitation and temperature fields for Switzerland back to 1864 using a statistical approach called the analogue resampling method. Results suggest that the presented method is suitable for weather reconstruction. As illustrated with the example of the avalanche in winter 1887/88, these weather reconstructions have great potential for various analyses of past weather and climate impact modelling.
Julie M. Nicely, Bryan N. Duncan, Thomas F. Hanisco, Glenn M. Wolfe, Ross J. Salawitch, Makoto Deushi, Amund S. Haslerud, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas E. Kinnison, Andrew Klekociuk, Michael E. Manyin, Virginie Marécal, Olaf Morgenstern, Lee T. Murray, Gunnar Myhre, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, Andrea Pozzer, Ilaria Quaglia, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Susan Strahan, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Daniel M. Westervelt, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1341–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, 2020
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Differences in methane lifetime among global models are large and poorly understood. We use a neural network method and simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative to quantify the factors influencing methane lifetime spread among models and variations over time. UV photolysis, tropospheric ozone, and nitrogen oxides drive large model differences, while the same factors plus specific humidity contribute to a decreasing trend in methane lifetime between 1980 and 2015.
Aryeh Feinberg, Moustapha Maliki, Andrea Stenke, Bruno Sudret, Thomas Peter, and Lenny H. E. Winkel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1363–1390, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1363-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1363-2020, 2020
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The amount of the micronutrient selenium in food largely depends on the amount and form of selenium in soil. The atmosphere acts as a source of selenium to soils through deposition, yet little information is available about atmospheric selenium cycling. Therefore, we built the first global atmospheric selenium model. Through sensitivity and uncertainty analysis we determine that selenium can be transported thousands of kilometers and that measurements of selenium emissions should be prioritized.
Le Kuai, Kevin W. Bowman, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Makoto Deushi, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Fabien Paulot, Sarah Strode, Andrew Conley, Jean-François Lamarque, Patrick Jöckel, David A. Plummer, Luke D. Oman, Helen Worden, Susan Kulawik, David Paynter, Andrea Stenke, and Markus Kunze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 281–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-281-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-281-2020, 2020
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The tropospheric ozone increase from pre-industrial to the present day leads to a radiative forcing. The top-of-atmosphere outgoing fluxes at the ozone band are controlled by ozone, water vapor, and temperature. We demonstrate a method to attribute the models’ flux biases to these key players using satellite-constrained instantaneous radiative kernels. The largest spread between models is found in the tropics, mainly driven by ozone and then water vapor.
Angela-Maria Burgdorf, Stefan Brönnimann, and Jörg Franke
Clim. Past, 15, 2053–2065, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-2053-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-2053-2019, 2019
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The western USA is frequently affected by multiannual summer droughts. They can be separated into two groups with distinct spatial patterns. This study analyzes the atmospheric circulation during multiannual droughts in a new 3-D climate reconstruction. We confirm two distinct drought types differing with respect to atmospheric circulation as well as sea surface temperatures. Our results suggest that both the Pacific and the extratropical North Atlantic region affect North American droughts.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Sophie Szopa, Ann R. Stavert, Nathan Luke Abraham, Alex T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Virginie Marécal, Fiona M. O'Connor, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Sarah Strode, Simone Tilmes, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13701–13723, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, 2019
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The role of hydroxyl radical changes in methane trends is debated, hindering our understanding of the methane cycle. This study quantifies how uncertainties in the hydroxyl radical may influence methane abundance in the atmosphere based on the inter-model comparison of hydroxyl radical fields and model simulations of CH4 abundance with different hydroxyl radical scenarios during 2000–2016. We show that hydroxyl radical changes could contribute up to 54 % of model-simulated methane biases.
This Rutishauser, François Jeanneret, Robert Brügger, Yuri Brugnara, Christian Röthlisberger, August Bernasconi, Peter Bangerter, Céline Portenier, Leonie Villiger, Daria Lehmann, Lukas Meyer, Bruno Messerli, and Stefan Brönnimann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1645–1654, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1645-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1645-2019, 2019
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This paper reports 7414 quality-controlled plant phenological observations of the BernClim phenological network in Switzerland. The data from 1304 sites at 110 stations were recorded between 1970 and 2018. The quality control (QC) points to very good internal consistency (only 0.2 % flagged as internally inconsistent) and likely to high quality of the data. BernClim data originally served in regional planning and agricultural suitability and are now valuable for climate change impact studies.
William T. Ball, Justin Alsing, Johannes Staehelin, Sean M. Davis, Lucien Froidevaux, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12731–12748, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12731-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12731-2019, 2019
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We analyse long-term stratospheric ozone (60° S–60° N) trends over the 1985–2018 period. Previous work has suggested that lower stratosphere ozone declined over 1998–2016. We demonstrate that a large ozone upsurge in 2017 is likely related to QBO variability, but that lower stratospheric ozone trends likely remain lower in 2018 than in 1998. Tropical stratospheric ozone (30° S–30° N) shows highly probable decreases in both the lower stratosphere and in the integrated stratospheric ozone layer.
Marcelo Zamuriano, Paul Froidevaux, Isabel Moreno, Mathias Vuille, and Stefan Brönnimann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-286, 2019
Publication in NHESS not foreseen
Andreas Chrysanthou, Amanda C. Maycock, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip Dhomse, Hella Garny, Douglas Kinnison, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Makoto Deushi, Rolando R. Garcia, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Daniele Visioni, and Yousuke Yamashita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11559–11586, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11559-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11559-2019, 2019
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We perform the first multi-model comparison of the impact of nudged meteorology on the stratospheric residual circulation (RC) in chemistry–climate models. Nudging meteorology does not constrain the mean strength of RC compared to free-running simulations, and despite the lack of agreement in the mean circulation, nudging tightly constrains the inter-annual variability in the tropical upward mass flux in the lower stratosphere. In summary, nudging strongly affects the representation of RC.
Aryeh Feinberg, Timofei Sukhodolov, Bei-Ping Luo, Eugene Rozanov, Lenny H. E. Winkel, Thomas Peter, and Andrea Stenke
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3863–3887, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3863-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3863-2019, 2019
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We have improved several aspects of atmospheric sulfur cycling in SOCOL-AER, an aerosol–chemistry–climate model. The newly implemented features in SOCOL-AERv2 include interactive deposition schemes, improved sulfur mass conservation, and expanded tropospheric chemistry. SOCOL-AERv2 shows better agreement with stratospheric aerosol observations and sulfur deposition networks compared to SOCOL-AERv1. SOCOL-AERv2 can be used to study impacts of sulfate aerosol on climate, chemistry, and ecosystems.
Thomas Labbé, Christian Pfister, Stefan Brönnimann, Daniel Rousseau, Jörg Franke, and Benjamin Bois
Clim. Past, 15, 1485–1501, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1485-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1485-2019, 2019
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In this paper we present the longest grape harvest date (GHD) record reconstructed to date, i.e. Beaune (France, Burgundy) 1354–2018. Drawing on unedited archive material, the series is validated using the long Paris temperature series that goes back to 1658 and was used to assess April-to-July temperatures from 1354 to 2018. The distribution of extremely early GHD is uneven over the 664-year-long period of the series and mirrors the rapid global warming from 1988 to 2018.
Kévin Lamy, Thierry Portafaix, Béatrice Josse, Colette Brogniez, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Hassan Bencherif, Laura Revell, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Michaela I. Hegglin, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Ben Liley, Virginie Marecal, Olaf Morgenstern, Andrea Stenke, Guang Zeng, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Neil Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Glauco Di Genova, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rong-Ming Hu, Douglas Kinnison, Michael Kotkamp, Richard McKenzie, Martine Michou, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Daniele Visioni, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10087–10110, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, 2019
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In this study, we simulate the ultraviolet radiation evolution during the 21st century on Earth's surface using the output from several numerical models which participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative. We present four possible futures which depend on greenhouse gases emissions. The role of ozone-depleting substances, greenhouse gases and aerosols are investigated. Our results emphasize the important role of aerosols for future ultraviolet radiation in the Northern Hemisphere.
Veronika Valler, Jörg Franke, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 15, 1427–1441, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1427-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1427-2019, 2019
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In recent years, the data assimilation approach was adapted to the field of paleoclimatology to reconstruct past climate fields by combining model simulations and observations.
To improve the performance of our paleodata assimilation system, we tested various techniques that are well established in weather forecasting and evaluated their impact on assimilating instrumental data and proxy records (tree rings).
Stefan Brönnimann, Luca Frigerio, Mikhaël Schwander, Marco Rohrer, Peter Stucki, and Jörg Franke
Clim. Past, 15, 1395–1409, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1395-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1395-2019, 2019
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During the 19th century flood frequency was high in central Europe, but it was low in the mid-20th century. This paper tracks these decadal changes in flood frequency for the case of Switzerland from peak discharge data back to precipitation data and daily weather reconstructions. We find an increased frequency in flood-prone weather types during large parts of the 19th century and decreased frequency in the mid-20th century. Sea-surface temperature anomalies can only explain a small part of it.
Pavle Arsenovic, Alessandro Damiani, Eugene Rozanov, Bernd Funke, Andrea Stenke, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9485–9494, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9485-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9485-2019, 2019
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Low-energy electrons (LEE) are the dominant source of odd nitrogen, which destroys ozone, in the mesosphere and stratosphere in polar winter in the geomagnetically active periods. However, the observed stratospheric ozone anomalies can be reproduced only when accounting for both low- and middle-range energy electrons (MEE) in the chemistry-climate model. Ozone changes may induce further dynamical and thermal changes in the atmosphere. We recommend including both LEE and MEE in climate models.
Lucas Pfister, Franziska Hupfer, Yuri Brugnara, Lukas Munz, Leonie Villiger, Lukas Meyer, Mikhaël Schwander, Francesco Alessandro Isotta, Christian Rohr, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 15, 1345–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1345-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1345-2019, 2019
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The 18th and early 19th centuries saw pronounced climatic variations with impacts on the environment and society. Although instrumental meteorological data for that period exist, only a small fraction has been the subject of research. This study provides an overview of early instrumental meteorological records in Switzerland resulting from an archive survey and demonstrates the great potential of such data. It is accompanied by the online publication of the imaged data series and metadata.
Anand Kumar, Claudia Marcolli, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6035–6058, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6035-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6035-2019, 2019
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This paper not only interests the atmospheric science community but has a potential to cater to a broader audience. We discuss both long- and
short-term effects of various
atmospherically relevantchemical species on a fairly abundant mineral surface
Quartz. We of course discuss these chemical interactions from the perspective of fate of airborne mineral dust but the same interactions could be interesting for studies on minerals at the ground level.
Anand Kumar, Claudia Marcolli, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6059–6084, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6059-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6059-2019, 2019
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This paper not only interests the Atmospheric Science community but has a potential to cater to a broader audience. We discuss both long- and short-term effects of various
atmospherically relevantchemical species on fairly abundant mineral surfaces like feldspars and clays. We of course discuss these chemical interactions from the perspective of fate of airborne mineral dust but the same interactions could be interesting for studies on minerals at the ground level.
Sandro Vattioni, Debra Weisenstein, David Keith, Aryeh Feinberg, Thomas Peter, and Andrea Stenke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 4877–4897, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4877-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4877-2019, 2019
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This study is among the first modeling studies on stratospheric sulfate geoengineering that interactively couple a size-resolved sectional aerosol module to well-described stratospheric chemistry and radiation schemes in a global 3-D chemistry–climate model. We found that compared with SO2 injection, the direct emission of aerosols results in more effective radiative forcing and that sensitivities to different injection strategies vary for different forms of injected sulfur.
Marcelo Zamuriano, Andrey Martynov, Luca Panziera, and Stefan Brönnimann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-27, 2019
Publication in NHESS not foreseen
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This work investigates the formation of a hailstorm over the Tropical Bolivian Andes. Using the WRF atmospheric model, we are able to numerically reconstruct it and we assess the main factors (mountains, lake and surface heating) in the storm formation. We propose physical mechanisms that have the potential to improve the forecasting of similar events; which are known to have a big impact over the Bolivian Altiplano, especially the region near Titicaca lake.
Roland Eichinger, Simone Dietmüller, Hella Garny, Petr Šácha, Thomas Birner, Harald Bönisch, Giovanni Pitari, Daniele Visioni, Andrea Stenke, Eugene Rozanov, Laura Revell, David A. Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Luke Oman, Makoto Deushi, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando Garcia, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Kane Adam Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 921–940, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-921-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-921-2019, 2019
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To shed more light upon the changes in stratospheric circulation in the 21st century, climate projection simulations of 10 state-of-the-art global climate models, spanning from 1960 to 2100, are analyzed. The study shows that in addition to changes in transport, mixing also plays an important role in stratospheric circulation and that the properties of mixing vary over time. Furthermore, the influence of mixing is quantified and a dynamical framework is provided to understand the changes.
Laura E. Revell, Andrea Stenke, Fiona Tummon, Aryeh Feinberg, Eugene Rozanov, Thomas Peter, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Robyn Schofield, Kane Stone, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16155–16172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, 2018
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Global models such as those participating in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) consistently simulate biases in tropospheric ozone compared with observations. We performed an advanced statistical analysis with one of the CCMI models to understand the cause of the bias. We found that emissions of ozone precursor gases are the dominant driver of the bias, implying either that the emissions are too large, or that the way in which the model handles emissions needs to be improved.
Simone Brunamonti, Teresa Jorge, Peter Oelsner, Sreeharsha Hanumanthu, Bhupendra B. Singh, K. Ravi Kumar, Sunil Sonbawne, Susanne Meier, Deepak Singh, Frank G. Wienhold, Bei Ping Luo, Maxi Boettcher, Yann Poltera, Hannu Jauhiainen, Rijan Kayastha, Jagadishwor Karmacharya, Ruud Dirksen, Manish Naja, Markus Rex, Suvarna Fadnavis, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15937–15957, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15937-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15937-2018, 2018
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Based on balloon-borne measurements performed in India and Nepal in 2016–2017, we infer the vertical distributions of water vapor, ozone and aerosols in the atmosphere, from the surface to 30 km altitude. Our measurements show that the atmospheric dynamics of the Asian summer monsoon system over the polluted Indian subcontinent lead to increased concentrations of water vapor and aerosols in the high atmosphere (approximately 14–20 km altitude), which can have an important effect on climate.
Peter Stucki, Moritz Bandhauer, Ulla Heikkilä, Ole Rössler, Massimiliano Zappa, Lucas Pfister, Melanie Salvisberg, Paul Froidevaux, Olivia Martius, Luca Panziera, and Stefan Brönnimann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2717–2739, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2717-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2717-2018, 2018
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A catastrophic flood south of the Alps in 1868 is assessed using documents and the earliest example of high-resolution weather simulation. Simulated weather dynamics agree well with observations and damage reports. Simulated peak water levels are biased. Low forest cover did not cause the flood, but such a paradigm was used to justify afforestation. Supported by historical methods, such numerical simulations allow weather events from past centuries to be used for modern hazard and risk analyses.
Christoph C. Raible, Martina Messmer, Flavio Lehner, Thomas F. Stocker, and Richard Blender
Clim. Past, 14, 1499–1514, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1499-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1499-2018, 2018
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Extratropical cyclones in winter and their characteristics are investigated in depth for the Atlantic European region from 850 to 2100 CE. During the Common Era, cyclone characteristics show pronounced variations mainly caused by internal variability of the coupled climate system. When anthropogenic forcing becomes dominant, a strong increase of extreme cyclone-related precipitation is found due to thermodynamics, though dynamical processes can play an important role during the last millennium.
Mehrnoush M. Fard, Ulrich K. Krieger, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13511–13530, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13511-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13511-2018, 2018
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Atmospheric aerosol particles may undergo liquid–liquid phase separation (LLPS) when exposed to varying relative humidity, with an aqueous organic phase enclosing an aqueous inorganic phase below a threshold of relative humidity. Brown carbon (BrC) compounds will redistribute to the organic phase upon LLPS. We use numerical modeling to study the shortwave radiative impact of LLPS containing BrC and conclude that it is not significant for atmospheric aerosol.
Amanda C. Maycock, Katja Matthes, Susann Tegtmeier, Hauke Schmidt, Rémi Thiéblemont, Lon Hood, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, Daniel R. Marsh, Martine Michou, David Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Yousuke Yamashita, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11323–11343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, 2018
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The 11-year solar cycle is an important driver of climate variability. Changes in incoming solar ultraviolet radiation affect atmospheric ozone, which in turn influences atmospheric temperatures. Constraining the impact of the solar cycle on ozone is therefore important for understanding climate variability. This study examines the representation of the solar influence on ozone in numerical models used to simulate past and future climate. We highlight important differences among model datasets.
Blanca Ayarzagüena, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Ulrike Langematz, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Steven C. Hardiman, Patrick Jöckel, Andrew Klekociuk, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David A. Plummer, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11277–11287, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, 2018
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Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are natural major disruptions of the polar stratospheric circulation that also affect surface weather. In the literature there are conflicting claims as to whether SSWs will change in the future. The confusion comes from studies using different models and methods. Here we settle the question by analysing 12 models with a consistent methodology, to show that no robust changes in frequency and other features are expected over the 21st century.
Stefan Brönnimann, Jan Rajczak, Erich M. Fischer, Christoph C. Raible, Marco Rohrer, and Christoph Schär
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2047–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, 2018
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Heavy precipitation events in Switzerland are expected to become more intense, but the seasonality also changes. Analysing a large set of model simulations, we find that annual maximum rainfall events become less frequent in late summer and more frequent in early summer and early autumn. The seasonality shift is arguably related to summer drying. Results suggest that changes in the seasonal cycle need to be accounted for when preparing for moderately extreme precipitation events.
Timofei Sukhodolov, Jian-Xiong Sheng, Aryeh Feinberg, Bei-Ping Luo, Thomas Peter, Laura Revell, Andrea Stenke, Debra K. Weisenstein, and Eugene Rozanov
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2633–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2633-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2633-2018, 2018
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The Pinatubo eruption in 1991 is the strongest directly observed volcanic event. In a series of experiments, we simulate its influence on the stratospheric aerosol layer using a state-of-the-art aerosol–chemistry–climate model, SOCOL-AERv1.0, and compare our results to observations. We show that SOCOL-AER reproduces the most important atmospheric effects and can therefore be used to study the climate effects of future volcanic eruptions and geoengineering by artificial sulfate aerosol.
Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Christoph C. Raible, Denica Bozhinova, Olivia Martius, Juan Andrés García Valero, and Juan Pedro Montávez
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2231–2247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2231-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2231-2018, 2018
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We carry out and compare two high-resolution simulations of the Alpine region in the period 1979–2005. We aim to improve the understanding of the local mechanisms leading to extreme events in this complex region. We compare both simulations to precipitation observations to assess the model performance, and attribute major biases to either model or boundary conditions. Further, we develop a new bias correction technique to remove systematic errors in simulated precipitation for impact studies.
Sandip S. Dhomse, Douglas Kinnison, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Ross J. Salawitch, Irene Cionni, Michaela I. Hegglin, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alex T. Archibald, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Peter Braesicke, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Stacey Frith, Steven C. Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, Rong-Ming Hu, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Oliver Kirner, Stefanie Kremser, Ulrike Langematz, Jared Lewis, Marion Marchand, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8409–8438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, 2018
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We analyse simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion by anthropogenic chlorine and bromine. The simulations from 20 models project that global column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2047 (uncertainty range 2042–2052). Return dates in other regions vary depending on factors related to climate change and importance of chlorine and bromine. Column ozone in the tropics may continue to decline.
Clara Orbe, Huang Yang, Darryn W. Waugh, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Douglas E. Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, David A. Plummer, John F. Scinocca, Beatrice Josse, Virginie Marecal, Patrick Jöckel, Luke D. Oman, Susan E. Strahan, Makoto Deushi, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Kohei Yoshida, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita, Andreas Stenke, Laura Revell, Timofei Sukhodolov, Eugene Rozanov, Giovanni Pitari, Daniele Visioni, Kane A. Stone, Robyn Schofield, and Antara Banerjee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7217–7235, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, 2018
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In this study we compare a few atmospheric transport properties among several numerical models that are used to study the influence of atmospheric chemistry on climate. We show that there are large differences among models in terms of the timescales that connect the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, where greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances are emitted, to the Southern Hemisphere. Our results may have important implications for how models represent atmospheric composition.
Anand Kumar, Claudia Marcolli, Beiping Luo, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7057–7079, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7057-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7057-2018, 2018
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We have performed immersion freezing experiments with microcline (most active ice nucleation, IN, K-feldspar polymorph) and investigated the effect of ammonium and non-ammonium solutes on its IN efficiency. We report increased IN efficiency of microcline in dilute ammonia- or ammonium-containing solutions, which opens up a pathway for condensation freezing occurring at a warmer temperature than immersion freezing.
Simone Dietmüller, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Thomas Birner, Harald Boenisch, Giovanni Pitari, Eva Mancini, Daniele Visioni, Andrea Stenke, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David A. Plummer, John Scinocca, Patrick Jöckel, Luke Oman, Makoto Deushi, Shibata Kiyotaka, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando Garcia, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Kane Adam Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6699–6720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6699-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6699-2018, 2018
Fabian Schoenenberger, Stephan Henne, Matthias Hill, Martin K. Vollmer, Giorgos Kouvarakis, Nikolaos Mihalopoulos, Simon O'Doherty, Michela Maione, Lukas Emmenegger, Thomas Peter, and Stefan Reimann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4069–4092, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4069-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4069-2018, 2018
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Anthropogenic halocarbon emissions contribute to stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. We measured atmospheric halocarbons for 6 months on Crete to extend the coverage of the existing observation network to the Eastern Mediterranean. The derived emission estimates showed a contribution of 16.8 % (13.6–23.3 %) and 53.2 % (38.1–84.2 %) of this region to the total HFC and HCFC emissions of the analyzed European domain and a reduction of the underlying uncertainties by 40–80 %.
Larry W. Thomason, Nicholas Ernest, Luis Millán, Landon Rieger, Adam Bourassa, Jean-Paul Vernier, Gloria Manney, Beiping Luo, Florian Arfeuille, and Thomas Peter
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 469–492, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-469-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-469-2018, 2018
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We describe the construction of a continuous 38-year record of stratospheric aerosol optical properties. The Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology, or GloSSAC, provided the input data to the construction of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project stratospheric aerosol forcing data set (1979 to 2014) and is now extended through 2016. GloSSAC focuses on the the SAGE series of instruments through mid-2005 and on OSIRIS and CALIPSO after that time.
Pavle Arsenovic, Eugene Rozanov, Julien Anet, Andrea Stenke, Werner Schmutz, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3469–3483, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3469-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3469-2018, 2018
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Global warming will persist in the 21st century, even if the solar activity undergoes an unusually strong and long decline. Decreased ozone production caused by reduction of solar activity and change of atmospheric dynamics due to the global warming might result in further thinning of the tropical ozone layer. Globally, total ozone would not recover to the pre-ozone hole values as long as the decline of solar activity lasts. This may let more ultra-violet radiation reach the Earth's surface.
Lauren Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Ken S. Carslaw, Graham W. Mann, Michael Sigl, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Davide Zanchettin, William T. Ball, Slimane Bekki, James S. A. Brooke, Sandip Dhomse, Colin Johnson, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Allegra N. LeGrande, Michael J. Mills, Ulrike Niemeier, James O. Pope, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2307–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, 2018
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We use four global aerosol models to compare the simulated sulfate deposition from the 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption to ice core records. Inter-model volcanic sulfate deposition differs considerably. Volcanic sulfate deposited on polar ice sheets is used to estimate the atmospheric sulfate burden and subsequently radiative forcing of historic eruptions. Our results suggest that deriving such relationships from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.
William T. Ball, Justin Alsing, Daniel J. Mortlock, Johannes Staehelin, Joanna D. Haigh, Thomas Peter, Fiona Tummon, Rene Stübi, Andrea Stenke, John Anderson, Adam Bourassa, Sean M. Davis, Doug Degenstein, Stacey Frith, Lucien Froidevaux, Chris Roth, Viktoria Sofieva, Ray Wang, Jeannette Wild, Pengfei Yu, Jerald R. Ziemke, and Eugene V. Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1379–1394, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1379-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1379-2018, 2018
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Using a robust analysis, with artefact-corrected ozone data, we confirm upper stratospheric ozone is recovering following the Montreal Protocol, but that lower stratospheric ozone (50° S–50° N) has continued to decrease since 1998, and the ozone layer as a whole (60° S–60° N) may be lower today than in 1998. No change in total column ozone may be due to increasing tropospheric ozone. State-of-the-art models do not reproduce lower stratospheric ozone decreases.
Olaf Morgenstern, Kane A. Stone, Robyn Schofield, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando R. Garcia, Kengo Sudo, David A. Plummer, John Scinocca, Luke D. Oman, Michael E. Manyin, Guang Zeng, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Laura E. Revell, Giovanni Pitari, Eva Mancini, Glauco Di Genova, Daniele Visioni, Sandip S. Dhomse, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1091–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018, 2018
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We assess how ozone as simulated by a group of chemistry–climate models responds to variations in man-made climate gases and ozone-depleting substances. We find some agreement, particularly in the middle and upper stratosphere, but also considerable disagreement elsewhere. Such disagreement affects the reliability of future ozone projections based on these models, and also constitutes a source of uncertainty in climate projections using prescribed ozone derived from these simulations.
Stefan Hunziker, Stefan Brönnimann, Juan Calle, Isabel Moreno, Marcos Andrade, Laura Ticona, Adrian Huerta, and Waldo Lavado-Casimiro
Clim. Past, 14, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1-2018, 2018
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Many data quality problems occurring in manned weather station observations are hardly detected with common data quality control methods. We investigated the effects of undetected data quality issues and found that they may reduce the correlation coefficients of station pairs, deteriorate the performance of data homogenization methods, increase the spread of individual station trends, and significantly bias regional trends. Applying adequate quality control approaches is of utmost importance.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
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Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
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Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Laura E. Revell, Andrea Stenke, Beiping Luo, Stefanie Kremser, Eugene Rozanov, Timofei Sukhodolov, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13139–13150, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13139-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13139-2017, 2017
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Compiling stratospheric aerosol data sets after a major volcanic eruption is difficult as the stratosphere becomes too optically opaque for satellite instruments to measure accurately. We performed ensemble chemistry–climate model simulations with two stratospheric aerosol data sets compiled for two international modelling activities and compared the simulated volcanic aerosol-induced effects from the 1991 Mt Pinatubo eruption on tropical stratospheric temperature and ozone with observations.
William T. Ball, Justin Alsing, Daniel J. Mortlock, Eugene V. Rozanov, Fiona Tummon, and Joanna D. Haigh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12269–12302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12269-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12269-2017, 2017
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Several ozone composites show different decadal trends, even in composites built with the same data. We remove artefacts affecting trend analysis with a new method (BASIC) and construct an ozone composite, with uncertainties. We find a significant ozone recovery since 1998 in the midlatitude upper stratosphere, with no hemispheric difference. We recommend using a similar approach to construct a composite based on the original instrument data to improve stratospheric ozone trend estimates.
Mikhaël Schwander, Marco Rohrer, Stefan Brönnimann, and Abdul Malik
Clim. Past, 13, 1199–1212, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1199-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1199-2017, 2017
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We used a new classification of daily weather patterns to analyse the influence of solar variability (11-year cycle) on European climate from 1763 to 2009. The analysis of the weather patterns occurrences shows a reduction in the number of days with a westerly flow over Europe under low solar activity during late winter. In parallel, the number of days with an easterly flow increases. Based on these results we expect colder winter over Europe under low solar activity.
Sandra Bastelberger, Ulrich K. Krieger, Beiping Luo, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 8453–8471, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8453-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8453-2017, 2017
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We present quantitative condensed-phase diffusivity measurements of a volatile organic (tetraethylene glycol) in highly viscous single aerosol particles (aqueous sucrose). The condensed-phase diffusivity exhibits a strong temperature and humidity dependence. Our results suggest that diffusion limitations of volatile organics in highly viscous organic aerosol may severely impact gas–particle partitioning under cold and dry conditions.
Martina Messmer, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 477–493, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-477-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-477-2017, 2017
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Low-pressure systems of type Vb may trigger heavy rainfall events over central Europe. This study aims at analysing the relative role of their moisture sources. For this, a set of sensitivity experiments encompassing changes in soil moisture and Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea SSTs are carried out with WRF. The latter moisture source stands out as the most relevant one. Furthermore, the regions most affected by Vb events in the future might be shifted from the Alps to the Balkan Peninsula.
Thomas Berkemeier, Markus Ammann, Ulrich K. Krieger, Thomas Peter, Peter Spichtinger, Ulrich Pöschl, Manabu Shiraiwa, and Andrew J. Huisman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 8021–8029, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8021-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8021-2017, 2017
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Kinetic process models are efficient tools used to unravel the mechanisms governing chemical and physical transformation in multiphase atmospheric chemistry. However, determination of kinetic parameters such as reaction rate or diffusion coefficients from multiple data sets is often difficult or ambiguous. This study presents a novel optimization algorithm and framework to determine these parameters in an automated fashion and to gain information about parameter uncertainty and uniqueness.
Katja Matthes, Bernd Funke, Monika E. Andersson, Luke Barnard, Jürg Beer, Paul Charbonneau, Mark A. Clilverd, Thierry Dudok de Wit, Margit Haberreiter, Aaron Hendry, Charles H. Jackman, Matthieu Kretzschmar, Tim Kruschke, Markus Kunze, Ulrike Langematz, Daniel R. Marsh, Amanda C. Maycock, Stergios Misios, Craig J. Rodger, Adam A. Scaife, Annika Seppälä, Ming Shangguan, Miriam Sinnhuber, Kleareti Tourpali, Ilya Usoskin, Max van de Kamp, Pekka T. Verronen, and Stefan Versick
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2247–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, 2017
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The solar forcing dataset for climate model experiments performed for the upcoming IPCC report is described. This dataset provides the radiative and particle input of solar variability on a daily basis from 1850 through to 2300. With this dataset a better representation of natural climate variability with respect to the output of the Sun is provided which provides the most sophisticated and comprehensive respresentation of solar variability that has been used in climate model simulations so far.
Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Eduardo Zorita, Christoph C. Raible, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 13, 629–648, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-629-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-629-2017, 2017
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This contribution aims at assessing to what extent the analogue method, a classic technique used in other branches of meteorology and climatology, can be used to perform gridded reconstructions of annual temperature based on the limited information from available but un-calibrated proxies spread across different locations of the world. We conclude that it is indeed possible, albeit with certain limitations that render the method comparable to more classic techniques.
Julien G. Anet, Martin Steinbacher, Laura Gallardo, Patricio A. Velásquez Álvarez, Lukas Emmenegger, and Brigitte Buchmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6477–6492, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6477-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6477-2017, 2017
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There are less long-term surface ozone measurements on the Southern than on the Northern Hemisphere, which makes it difficult to thoroughly understand global ozone chemistry. We have analyzed a new, 20-year-long ozone dataset measured at 2200 m asl at El Tololo, Chile, and show that the annual cycle of ozone is mainly driven by ozone transport from the stratosphere to the troposphere. As well, we illustrate that the timing of the annual maximum is regressing to earlier in the year.
Martin Wegmann, Yvan Orsolini, Emanuel Dutra, Olga Bulygina, Alexander Sterin, and Stefan Brönnimann
The Cryosphere, 11, 923–935, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-923-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-923-2017, 2017
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We investigate long-term climate reanalyses datasets to infer their quality in reproducing snow depth values compared to in situ measured data from meteorological stations that go back to 1900. We found that the long-term reanalyses do a good job in reproducing snow depths but have some questionable snow states early in the 20th century. Thus, with care, climate reanalyses can be a valuable tool to investigate spatial snow evolution in global warming and climate change studies.
Lukas Kaufmann, Claudia Marcolli, Beiping Luo, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3525–3552, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3525-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3525-2017, 2017
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To improve the understanding of heterogeneous ice nucleation, we have subjected different ice nuclei to repeated freezing cycles and evaluated the freezing temperatures with different parameterizations of classical nucleation theory. It was found that two fit parameters were necessary to describe the temperature dependence of the nucleation rate.
Bernd Funke, William Ball, Stefan Bender, Angela Gardini, V. Lynn Harvey, Alyn Lambert, Manuel López-Puertas, Daniel R. Marsh, Katharina Meraner, Holger Nieder, Sanna-Mari Päivärinta, Kristell Pérot, Cora E. Randall, Thomas Reddmann, Eugene Rozanov, Hauke Schmidt, Annika Seppälä, Miriam Sinnhuber, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriele P. Stiller, Natalia D. Tsvetkova, Pekka T. Verronen, Stefan Versick, Thomas von Clarmann, Kaley A. Walker, and Vladimir Yushkov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3573–3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3573-2017, 2017
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Simulations from eight atmospheric models have been compared to tracer and temperature observations from seven satellite instruments in order to evaluate the energetic particle indirect effect (EPP IE) during the perturbed northern hemispheric (NH) winter 2008/2009. Models are capable to reproduce the EPP IE in dynamically and geomagnetically quiescent NH winter conditions. The results emphasize the need for model improvements in the dynamical representation of elevated stratopause events.
Grant M. Raisbeck, Alexandre Cauquoin, Jean Jouzel, Amaelle Landais, Jean-Robert Petit, Vladimir Y. Lipenkov, Juerg Beer, Hans-Arno Synal, Hans Oerter, Sigfus J. Johnsen, Jorgen P. Steffensen, Anders Svensson, and Françoise Yiou
Clim. Past, 13, 217–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-217-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-217-2017, 2017
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Using records of a long-lived radioactive nuclide (10Be) that is formed globally in the atmosphere and deposited within a few years to the earth’s surface, we have synchronized three Antarctic ice cores to one from Greenland. This permits the climate and other environmental parameters registered in these ice cores to be put on a common timescale with a precision of a few decades, thus allowing different models and mechanisms associated with these parameters to be tested with the same precision.
Olaf Morgenstern, Michaela I. Hegglin, Eugene Rozanov, Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando R. Garcia, Steven C. Hardiman, Larry W. Horowitz, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Michael E. Manyin, Marion Marchand, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 639–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, 2017
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We present a review of the make-up of 20 models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). In comparison to earlier such activities, most of these models comprise a whole-atmosphere chemistry, and several of them include an interactive ocean module. This makes them suitable for studying the interactions of tropospheric air quality, stratospheric ozone, and climate. The paper lays the foundation for other studies using the CCMI simulations for scientific analysis.
William T. Ball, Aleš Kuchař, Eugene V. Rozanov, Johannes Staehelin, Fiona Tummon, Anne K. Smith, Timofei Sukhodolov, Andrea Stenke, Laura Revell, Ancelin Coulon, Werner Schmutz, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15485–15500, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15485-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15485-2016, 2016
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We find monthly, mid-latitude temperature changes above 40 km are related to ozone and temperature variations throughout the middle atmosphere. We develop an index to represent this atmospheric variability. In statistical analysis, the index can account for up to 60 % of variability in tropical temperature and ozone above 27 km. The uncertainties can be reduced by up to 35 % and 20 % in temperature and ozone, respectively. This index is an important tool to quantify current and future ozone recovery.
Stefan Brönnimann, Abdul Malik, Alexander Stickler, Martin Wegmann, Christoph C. Raible, Stefan Muthers, Julien Anet, Eugene Rozanov, and Werner Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15529–15543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15529-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15529-2016, 2016
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The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is a wind oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere. Effects on climate have been found, which is relevant for seasonal forecasts. However, up to now only relatively short records were available, and even within these the climate imprints were intermittent. Here we analyze a 108-year long reconstruction as well as four 405-year long simulations. We confirm most of the claimed QBO effects on climate, but they are small, which explains apparently variable effects.
Chantal Camenisch, Kathrin M. Keller, Melanie Salvisberg, Benjamin Amann, Martin Bauch, Sandro Blumer, Rudolf Brázdil, Stefan Brönnimann, Ulf Büntgen, Bruce M. S. Campbell, Laura Fernández-Donado, Dominik Fleitmann, Rüdiger Glaser, Fidel González-Rouco, Martin Grosjean, Richard C. Hoffmann, Heli Huhtamaa, Fortunat Joos, Andrea Kiss, Oldřich Kotyza, Flavio Lehner, Jürg Luterbacher, Nicolas Maughan, Raphael Neukom, Theresa Novy, Kathleen Pribyl, Christoph C. Raible, Dirk Riemann, Maximilian Schuh, Philip Slavin, Johannes P. Werner, and Oliver Wetter
Clim. Past, 12, 2107–2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, 2016
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Throughout the last millennium, several cold periods occurred which affected humanity. Here, we investigate an exceptionally cold decade during the 15th century. The cold conditions challenged the food production and led to increasing food prices and a famine in parts of Europe. In contrast to periods such as the “Year Without Summer” after the eruption of Tambora, these extreme climatic conditions seem to have occurred by chance and in relation to the internal variability of the climate system.
Stefan Muthers, Christoph C. Raible, Eugene Rozanov, and Thomas F. Stocker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 877–892, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-877-2016, 2016
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important oceanic circulation system which transports large amounts of heat from the tropics to the north. This circulation is strengthened when less solar irradiance reaches the Earth, e.g. due to reduced solar activity or geoengineering techniques. In climate models, however, this response is overestimated when chemistry–climate interactions and the following shift in the atmospheric circulation systems are not considered.
Niklaus Merz, Andreas Born, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 12, 2011–2031, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2011-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2011-2016, 2016
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The last (Eemian) interglacial is studied with a global climate model focusing on Greenland and the adjacent high latitudes. A set of model experiments demonstrates the crucial role of changes in sea ice and sea surface temperatures for the magnitude of Eemian atmospheric warming. Greenland temperatures are found highly sensitive to sea ice changes in the Nordic Seas but rather insensitive to changes in the Labrador Sea. This behavior has important implications for Greenland ice core signals.
Laura E. Revell, Andrea Stenke, Eugene Rozanov, William Ball, Stefan Lossow, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13067–13080, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13067-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13067-2016, 2016
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Water vapour in the stratosphere plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and the Earth's radiative balance. We have analysed trends in stratospheric water vapour through the 21st century as simulated by a coupled chemistry–climate model following a range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We have also quantified the contribution that methane oxidation in the stratosphere makes to projected water vapour trends.
Amaelle Landais, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Emilie Capron, Petra M. Langebroek, Pepijn Bakker, Emma J. Stone, Niklaus Merz, Christoph C. Raible, Hubertus Fischer, Anaïs Orsi, Frédéric Prié, Bo Vinther, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
Clim. Past, 12, 1933–1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, 2016
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The last lnterglacial (LIG; 116 000 to 129 000 years before present) surface temperature at the upstream Greenland NEEM deposition site is estimated to be warmer by +7 to +11 °C compared to the preindustrial period. We show that under such warm temperatures, melting of snow probably led to a significant surface melting. There is a paradox between the extent of the Greenland ice sheet during the LIG and the strong warming during this period that models cannot solve.
Lukas Kaufmann, Claudia Marcolli, Julian Hofer, Valeria Pinti, Christopher R. Hoyle, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 11177–11206, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11177-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11177-2016, 2016
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We investigated dust samples from dust source regions all over the globe with respect to their ice nucleation activity and their mineralogical composition. Stones of reference minerals were milled and investigated the same way as the natural dust samples. We found that the mineralogical composition is a major determinant of ice nucleation ability. Natural samples consist of mixtures of minerals with remarkably similar ice nucleation ability.
Davide Zanchettin, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Anja Schmidt, Edwin P. Gerber, Gabriele Hegerl, Alan Robock, Francesco S. R. Pausata, William T. Ball, Susanne E. Bauer, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Michael Mills, Marion Marchand, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Eugene Rozanov, Angelo Rubino, Andrea Stenke, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, 2016
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Simulating volcanically-forced climate variability is a challenging task for climate models. The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) – an endorsed contribution to CMIP6 – defines a protocol for idealized volcanic-perturbation experiments to improve comparability of results across different climate models. This paper illustrates the design of VolMIP's experiments and describes the aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.
Philip Brohan, Gilbert P. Compo, Stefan Brönnimann, Robert J. Allan, Renate Auchmann, Yuri Brugnara, Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, and Jeffrey S. Whitaker
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-78, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-78, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
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We have used modern weather forecasting tools to reconstruct the dreadful European weather of 200 years ago – 1816 was the ‘year without a summer’; harvests failed, and people starved. We can show that 1816’s extreme climate was caused by the eruption of the Tambora volcano the previous year. This means we have some chance of predicting such extreme summers if they occur in future, though this is still a challenge to today’s forecast models.
Erika Kienast-Sjögren, Christian Rolf, Patric Seifert, Ulrich K. Krieger, Bei P. Luo, Martina Krämer, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7605–7621, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7605-2016, 2016
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We present a climatology of mid-latitude cirrus cloud properties based on 13 000 hours of automatically analyzed lidar measurements at three different sites. Jungfraujoch,
situated at 3580 m a.s.l., is found to be ideal to measure high and optically thin
cirrus. We use our retrieved optical properties together with a radiation model and
estimate the radiative forcing by mid-latitude cirrus.
All cirrus clouds detected here have a positive net radiative effect.
D. M. Lienhard, A. J. Huisman, U. K. Krieger, Y. Rudich, C. Marcolli, B. P. Luo, D. L. Bones, J. P. Reid, A. T. Lambe, M. R. Canagaratna, P. Davidovits, T. B. Onasch, D. R. Worsnop, S. S. Steimer, T. Koop, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13599–13613, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13599-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13599-2015, 2015
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New data of water diffusivity in secondary organic aerosol (SOA) material and organic/inorganic model mixtures is presented over an extensive temperature range. Our data suggest that water diffusion in SOA is sufficiently fast so that it is unlikely to have significant consequences on the direct climatic effect under tropospheric conditions. Glass formation in SOA is unlikely to restrict homogeneous ice nucleation.
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, C. C. Raible, and S. Dierer
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3349–3363, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3349-2015, 2015
J.-X. Sheng, D. K. Weisenstein, B.-P. Luo, E. Rozanov, F. Arfeuille, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11501–11512, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11501-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11501-2015, 2015
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We have conducted a perturbed parameter model ensemble to investigate Mt.
Pinatubo's 1991 initial sulfur mass emission. Our results suggest that (a) the initial mass loading of the Pinatubo eruption is ~14 Mt of SO2; (b) the injection vertical distribution is strongly skewed towards the lower stratosphere, leading to a peak mass sulfur injection at 18-21 km; (c) the injection magnitude and height affect early southward transport of the volcanic cloud observed by SAGE II.
S. Muthers, F. Arfeuille, C. C. Raible, and E. Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11461–11476, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11461-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11461-2015, 2015
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After volcanic eruptions different radiative and chemical processes take place in the stratosphere which perturb the ozone layer and cause pronounced dynamical changes. In idealized chemistry-climate model simulations the importance of these processes and the modulating role of the climate state is analysed. The chemical effect strongly differs between a preindustrial and present-day climate, but the effect on the dynamics is weak. Radiative processes dominate the dynamics in all climate states.
M. Messmer, J. J. Gómez-Navarro, and C. C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 541–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-541-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-541-2015, 2015
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, O. Bothe, S. Wagner, E. Zorita, J. P. Werner, J. Luterbacher, C. C. Raible, and J. P Montávez
Clim. Past, 11, 1077–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1077-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1077-2015, 2015
Y. Brugnara, R. Auchmann, S. Brönnimann, R. J. Allan, I. Auer, M. Barriendos, H. Bergström, J. Bhend, R. Brázdil, G. P. Compo, R. C. Cornes, F. Dominguez-Castro, A. F. V. van Engelen, J. Filipiak, J. Holopainen, S. Jourdain, M. Kunz, J. Luterbacher, M. Maugeri, L. Mercalli, A. Moberg, C. J. Mock, G. Pichard, L. Řezníčková, G. van der Schrier, V. Slonosky, Z. Ustrnul, M. A. Valente, A. Wypych, and X. Yin
Clim. Past, 11, 1027–1047, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1027-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1027-2015, 2015
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A data set of instrumental pressure and temperature observations for the early instrumental period (before ca. 1850) is described. This is the result of a digitisation effort involving the period immediately after the eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815, combined with the collection of already available sub-daily time series. The highest data availability is therefore for the years 1815 to 1817. An analysis of pressure variability and of case studies in Europe is performed for that period.
F. Lehner, F. Joos, C. C. Raible, J. Mignot, A. Born, K. M. Keller, and T. F. Stocker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 411–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, 2015
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We present the first last-millennium simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) including an interactive carbon cycle in both ocean and land component. Volcanic eruptions emerge as the strongest forcing factor for the preindustrial climate and carbon cycle. We estimate the climate-carbon-cycle feedback in CESM to be at the lower bounds of empirical estimates (1.3ppm/°C). The time of emergence for interannual global land and ocean carbon uptake rates are 1947 and 1877, respectively.
E. Kienast-Sjögren, A. K. Miltenberger, B. P. Luo, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7429–7447, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7429-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7429-2015, 2015
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Sensitivities of Lagrangian cirrus modelling on input data uncertainties have been examined. We found a strong dependence on the temporal resolution of the trajectories and underlying numerical weather prediction (NWP) data as well as on the specific moisture content. Furthermore, we found a large day-to-day variability in the vertical wind spectrum, demonstrating the necessity to apply NWP models with high spatial and temporal resolution for Lagrangian cirrus modelling.
D. Zanchettin, O. Bothe, F. Lehner, P. Ortega, C. C. Raible, and D. Swingedouw
Clim. Past, 11, 939–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-939-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-939-2015, 2015
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A discrepancy exists between reconstructed and simulated Pacific North American pattern (PNA) features during the early 19th century. Pseudo-reconstructions demonstrate that the available PNA reconstruction is potentially skillful but also potentially affected by a number of sources of uncertainty and deficiencies especially at multidecadal and centennial timescales. Simulations and reconstructions can be reconciled by attributing the reconstructed PNA features to internal variability.
S. S. Steimer, U. K. Krieger, Y.-F. Te, D. M. Lienhard, A. J. Huisman, B. P. Luo, M. Ammann, and T. Peter
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 2397–2408, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2397-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2397-2015, 2015
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Atmospheric aerosol is often subject to supersaturated or supercooled conditions where bulk measurements are not possible. Here we demonstrate how measurements using single particle electrodynamic levitation combined with light scattering spectroscopy allow the retrieval of thermodynamic data, optical properties and water diffusivity of such metastable particles even when auxiliary bulk data are not available due to lack of sufficient amounts of sample.
L. E. Revell, F. Tummon, A. Stenke, T. Sukhodolov, A. Coulon, E. Rozanov, H. Garny, V. Grewe, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5887–5902, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5887-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5887-2015, 2015
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We have examined the effects of ozone precursor emissions and climate change on the tropospheric ozone budget. Under RCP 6.0, ozone in the future is governed primarily by changes in nitrogen oxides (NOx). Methane is also important, and induces an increase in tropospheric ozone that is approximately one-third of that caused by NOx. This study highlights the critical role that emission policies globally have to play in determining tropospheric ozone evolution through the 21st century.
G. Ganbavale, A. Zuend, C. Marcolli, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 447–493, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-447-2015, 2015
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This study presents a new, improved parameterisation of the temperature dependence of activity coefficients implemented in the AIOMFAC group-contribution model. The AIOMFAC model with the improved parameterisation is applicable for a large variety of aqueous organic as well as water-free organic solutions of relevance for atmospheric aerosols. The new model parameters were determined based on published and new thermodynamic equilibrium data covering a temperature range from ~190 to 440 K.
T. Sukhodolov, E. Rozanov, A. I. Shapiro, J. Anet, C. Cagnazzo, T. Peter, and W. Schmutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2859–2866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2859-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2859-2014, 2014
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The performance of the main generations of the ECHAM shortwave radiation schemes is analysed in terms of the representation of the solar signal in the heating rates. The way to correct missing or underrepresented spectral intervals in the solar signal in the heating rates is suggested using the example of ECHAM6 and six-band ECHAM5 schemes. The suggested method is computationally fast and suitable for any other radiation scheme.
S. Pandey Deolal, S. Henne, L. Ries, S. Gilge, U. Weers, M. Steinbacher, J. Staehelin, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12553–12571, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12553-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12553-2014, 2014
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Mixing ratios of Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) at Jungfraujoch (Switzerland) and Zugspitze (Germany) show a seasonal variation with maxima in spring, typical for remote sites in the lower atmosphere in northern mid-latitudes. The detailed analysis of PAN measurements of May 2008 indicates that PAN at these high mountain sites is dominated by photochemical formation in the relatively cold polluted European planetary boundary layer rather than formation in the free troposphere.
P. Stucki, S. Brönnimann, O. Martius, C. Welker, M. Imhof, N. von Wattenwyl, and N. Philipp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2867–2882, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2867-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2867-2014, 2014
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This catalog contains 240 (8 extreme) high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859 in 3 severity classes. Validation with independent wind and damage data reveals that the most hazardous winter storms are captured, while too few moderate windstorms may be detected. We find evidence of high winter storm activity in the early and late 20th century compared to the mid-20th century in both damage and wind data. This indicates a covariability of hazard and related damages on decadal timescales.
D. W. Fahey, R.-S. Gao, O. Möhler, H. Saathoff, C. Schiller, V. Ebert, M. Krämer, T. Peter, N. Amarouche, L. M. Avallone, R. Bauer, Z. Bozóki, L. E. Christensen, S. M. Davis, G. Durry, C. Dyroff, R. L. Herman, S. Hunsmann, S. M. Khaykin, P. Mackrodt, J. Meyer, J. B. Smith, N. Spelten, R. F. Troy, H. Vömel, S. Wagner, and F. G. Wienhold
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 3177–3213, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3177-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3177-2014, 2014
K. Willett, C. Williams, I. T. Jolliffe, R. Lund, L. V. Alexander, S. Brönnimann, L. A. Vincent, S. Easterbrook, V. K. C. Venema, D. Berry, R. E. Warren, G. Lopardo, R. Auchmann, E. Aguilar, M. J. Menne, C. Gallagher, Z. Hausfather, T. Thorarinsdottir, and P. W. Thorne
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 3, 187–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-3-187-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-3-187-2014, 2014
G. Ganbavale, C. Marcolli, U. K. Krieger, A. Zuend, G. Stratmann, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9993–10012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9993-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9993-2014, 2014
M. Kozubek, E. Rozanov, and P. Krizan
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-23891-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-23891-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
A. Cirisan, B. P. Luo, I. Engel, F. G. Wienhold, M. Sprenger, U. K. Krieger, U. Weers, G. Romanens, G. Levrat, P. Jeannet, D. Ruffieux, R. Philipona, B. Calpini, P. Spichtinger, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7341–7365, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7341-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7341-2014, 2014
K. M. Keller, F. Joos, and C. C. Raible
Biogeosciences, 11, 3647–3659, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3647-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3647-2014, 2014
N. Merz, A. Born, C. C. Raible, H. Fischer, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 10, 1221–1238, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1221-2014, 2014
I. Suter, R. Zech, J. G. Anet, and T. Peter
Clim. Past, 10, 1183–1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1183-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1183-2014, 2014
I. Mariani, A. Eichler, T. M. Jenk, S. Brönnimann, R. Auchmann, M. C. Leuenberger, and M. Schwikowski
Clim. Past, 10, 1093–1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1093-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1093-2014, 2014
L. Ramella Pralungo, L. Haimberger, A. Stickler, and S. Brönnimann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 185–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-185-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-185-2014, 2014
J. G. Anet, S. Muthers, E. V. Rozanov, C. C. Raible, A. Stenke, A. I. Shapiro, S. Brönnimann, F. Arfeuille, Y. Brugnara, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, W. Schmutz, and T. Peter
Clim. Past, 10, 921–938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, 2014
I. Engel, B. P. Luo, S. M. Khaykin, F. G. Wienhold, H. Vömel, R. Kivi, C. R. Hoyle, J.-U. Grooß, M. C. Pitts, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3231–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3231-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3231-2014, 2014
C. C. Raible, F. Lehner, J. F. González-Rouco, and L. Fernández-Donado
Clim. Past, 10, 537–550, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-537-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-537-2014, 2014
P. Breitenmoser, S. Brönnimann, and D. Frank
Clim. Past, 10, 437–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-437-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-437-2014, 2014
F. Arfeuille, D. Weisenstein, H. Mack, E. Rozanov, T. Peter, and S. Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 10, 359–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-359-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-359-2014, 2014
J.-U. Grooß, I. Engel, S. Borrmann, W. Frey, G. Günther, C. R. Hoyle, R. Kivi, B. P. Luo, S. Molleker, T. Peter, M. C. Pitts, H. Schlager, G. Stiller, H. Vömel, K. A. Walker, and R. Müller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1055–1073, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1055-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1055-2014, 2014
J. Staufer, J. Staehelin, R. Stübi, T. Peter, F. Tummon, and V. Thouret
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 241–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-241-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-241-2014, 2014
A. Stickler, S. Brönnimann, S. Jourdain, E. Roucaute, A. Sterin, D. Nikolaev, M. A. Valente, R. Wartenburger, H. Hersbach, L. Ramella-Pralungo, and D. Dee
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 29–48, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-29-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-29-2014, 2014
J. Staufer, J. Staehelin, R. Stübi, T. Peter, F. Tummon, and V. Thouret
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 3393–3406, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-3393-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-3393-2013, 2013
S. M. Khaykin, I. Engel, H. Vömel, I. M. Formanyuk, R. Kivi, L. I. Korshunov, M. Krämer, A. D. Lykov, S. Meier, T. Naebert, M. C. Pitts, M. L. Santee, N. Spelten, F. G. Wienhold, V. A. Yushkov, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11503–11517, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11503-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11503-2013, 2013
F. Arfeuille, B. P. Luo, P. Heckendorn, D. Weisenstein, J. X. Sheng, E. Rozanov, M. Schraner, S. Brönnimann, L. W. Thomason, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11221–11234, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11221-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11221-2013, 2013
J. G. Anet, S. Muthers, E. Rozanov, C. C. Raible, T. Peter, A. Stenke, A. I. Shapiro, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, S. Brönnimann, F. Arfeuille, Y. Brugnara, and W. Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10951–10967, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, 2013
I. Engel, B. P. Luo, M. C. Pitts, L. R. Poole, C. R. Hoyle, J.-U. Grooß, A. Dörnbrack, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10769–10785, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10769-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10769-2013, 2013
N. Merz, C. C. Raible, H. Fischer, V. Varma, M. Prange, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 9, 2433–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2433-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2433-2013, 2013
A. Stenke, C. R. Hoyle, B. Luo, E. Rozanov, J. Gröbner, L. Maag, S. Brönnimann, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9713–9729, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9713-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9713-2013, 2013
S. Brönnimann, J. Bhend, J. Franke, S. Flückiger, A. M. Fischer, R. Bleisch, G. Bodeker, B. Hassler, E. Rozanov, and M. Schraner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9623–9639, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9623-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9623-2013, 2013
C. R. Hoyle, I. Engel, B. P. Luo, M. C. Pitts, L. R. Poole, J.-U. Grooß, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9577–9595, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9577-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9577-2013, 2013
M. von Hobe, S. Bekki, S. Borrmann, F. Cairo, F. D'Amato, G. Di Donfrancesco, A. Dörnbrack, A. Ebersoldt, M. Ebert, C. Emde, I. Engel, M. Ern, W. Frey, S. Genco, S. Griessbach, J.-U. Grooß, T. Gulde, G. Günther, E. Hösen, L. Hoffmann, V. Homonnai, C. R. Hoyle, I. S. A. Isaksen, D. R. Jackson, I. M. Jánosi, R. L. Jones, K. Kandler, C. Kalicinsky, A. Keil, S. M. Khaykin, F. Khosrawi, R. Kivi, J. Kuttippurath, J. C. Laube, F. Lefèvre, R. Lehmann, S. Ludmann, B. P. Luo, M. Marchand, J. Meyer, V. Mitev, S. Molleker, R. Müller, H. Oelhaf, F. Olschewski, Y. Orsolini, T. Peter, K. Pfeilsticker, C. Piesch, M. C. Pitts, L. R. Poole, F. D. Pope, F. Ravegnani, M. Rex, M. Riese, T. Röckmann, B. Rognerud, A. Roiger, C. Rolf, M. L. Santee, M. Scheibe, C. Schiller, H. Schlager, M. Siciliani de Cumis, N. Sitnikov, O. A. Søvde, R. Spang, N. Spelten, F. Stordal, O. Sumińska-Ebersoldt, A. Ulanovski, J. Ungermann, S. Viciani, C. M. Volk, M. vom Scheidt, P. von der Gathen, K. Walker, T. Wegner, R. Weigel, S. Weinbruch, G. Wetzel, F. G. Wienhold, I. Wohltmann, W. Woiwode, I. A. K. Young, V. Yushkov, B. Zobrist, and F. Stroh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9233–9268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9233-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9233-2013, 2013
A. Stenke, M. Schraner, E. Rozanov, T. Egorova, B. Luo, and T. Peter
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1407–1427, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1407-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1407-2013, 2013
S. Brönnimann, I. Mariani, M. Schwikowski, R. Auchmann, and A. Eichler
Clim. Past, 9, 2013–2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2013-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2013-2013, 2013
A. J. Huisman, U. K. Krieger, A. Zuend, C. Marcolli, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6647–6662, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6647-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6647-2013, 2013
Y. Brugnara, S. Brönnimann, J. Luterbacher, and E. Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6275–6288, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6275-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6275-2013, 2013
V. Zubov, E. Rozanov, T. Egorova, I. Karol, and W. Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4697–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4697-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4697-2013, 2013
F. Hasebe, Y. Inai, M. Shiotani, M. Fujiwara, H. Vömel, N. Nishi, S.-Y. Ogino, T. Shibata, S. Iwasaki, N. Komala, T. Peter, and S. J. Oltmans
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4393–4411, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4393-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4393-2013, 2013
I. Ermolli, K. Matthes, T. Dudok de Wit, N. A. Krivova, K. Tourpali, M. Weber, Y. C. Unruh, L. Gray, U. Langematz, P. Pilewskie, E. Rozanov, W. Schmutz, A. Shapiro, S. K. Solanki, and T. N. Woods
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3945–3977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3945-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3945-2013, 2013
T. Egorova, E. Rozanov, J. Gröbner, M. Hauser, and W. Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3811–3823, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3811-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3811-2013, 2013
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Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4899–4913, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4899-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4899-2025, 2025
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Andrea Storto, Sergey Frolov, Laura Slivinski, and Chunxue Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4789–4804, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4789-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4789-2025, 2025
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Inaccuracies in air–sea heat fluxes severely degrade the accuracy of ocean numerical simulations. Here, we use artificial neural networks to correct air–sea heat fluxes as a function of oceanic and atmospheric state predictors. The correction successfully improves surface and subsurface ocean temperatures beyond the training period and in prediction experiments.
Chang Liao, L. Ruby Leung, Yilin Fang, Teklu Tesfa, and Robinson Negron-Juarez
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4601–4624, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4601-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4601-2025, 2025
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Understanding horizontal groundwater flow is important for understanding how water moves through the ground. Current climate models often simplify this process because they do not have information about the land surface that is detailed enough. Our study developed a new model that divides the land surface into hillslopes to better represent how groundwater flows. This model can help improve predictions of water availability and how it affects ecosystems.
Sebastian Müller, Martin Lange, Thomas Fischer, Sara König, Matthias Kelbling, Jeisson Javier Leal Rojas, and Stephan Thober
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4483–4498, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4483-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4483-2025, 2025
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This study presents FINAM (
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Nathan P. Gillett, Isla R. Simpson, Gabi Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Dann Mitchell, Aurélien Ribes, Hideo Shiogama, Dáithí Stone, Claudia Tebaldi, Piotr Wolski, Wenxia Zhang, and Vivek K. Arora
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4399–4416, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4399-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4399-2025, 2025
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Climate model simulations of the response to human and natural influences together, natural climate influences alone and greenhouse gases alone are key to quantifying human influence on the climate. The last set of such coordinated simulations underpinned key findings in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Here we propose a new set of such simulations to be used in the next generation of attribution studies and to underpin the next IPCC report.
Pengfei Xue, Chenfu Huang, Yafang Zhong, Michael Notaro, Miraj B. Kayastha, Xing Zhou, Chuyan Zhao, Christa Peters-Lidard, Carlos Cruz, and Eric Kemp
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4293–4316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4293-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4293-2025, 2025
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This study introduces a new 3D lake–ice–atmosphere coupled model that significantly improves winter climate simulations for the Great Lakes compared to traditional 1D lake model coupling. The key contribution is the identification of critical hydrodynamic processes – ice transport, heat advection, and shear-driven turbulence production – that influence lake thermal structure and ice cover and explain the superior performance of 3D lake models to their 1D counterparts.
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Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4183–4213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4183-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4183-2025, 2025
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Ziming Ke, Qi Tang, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Xiaohong Liu, and Hailong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4137–4153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4137-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4137-2025, 2025
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This study assesses volcanic aerosol representation in E3SM (Energy Exascale Earth System Model), showing that an emission-based approach moderately improves temperature variability and cloud responses compared to a prescribed forcing approach, yet significant bias persists.
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Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4009–4021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4009-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4009-2025, 2025
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The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models. Here, we describe recent significant improvements of ESMValTool’s computational efficiency including parallel, out-of-core, and distributed computing. Evaluations with the enhanced version of ESMValTool are faster, use less computational resources, and can handle input data larger than the available memory.
Philipp Weiss, Ross Herbert, and Philip Stier
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3877–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3877-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3877-2025, 2025
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Aerosols strongly influence Earth's climate as they interact with radiation and clouds. New Earth system models run at resolutions of a few kilometers. To simulate the Earth system with interactive aerosols, we developed a new aerosol module. It represents aerosols as an ensemble of lognormal modes with given sizes and compositions. We present a year-long simulation with four modes at a resolution of 5 km. It captures key processes like the formation of dust storms in the Sahara.
Yan Bo, Hao Liang, Tao Li, and Feng Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3799–3817, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3799-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3799-2025, 2025
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This study proposed an advancing framework for modeling regional rice production, water use, and greenhouse gas emissions. The framework integrated a process-based soil-crop model with vital physiological effects, a novel model upscaling method, and the NSGA-II multi-objective optimization algorithm at a parallel computing platform. The framework provides a valuable tool for multi-objective optimization of rice irrigation schemes at a large scale.
Carolina A. Bieri, Francina Dominguez, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, and Ying Fan
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3755–3779, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3755-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3755-2025, 2025
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Access to deep moisture below the Earth's surface is important for vegetation in areas of the Amazon where there is little precipitation for part of the year. Most existing numerical models of the Earth system do not adequately capture where and when deep root water uptake occurs. We address this by adding deep soil layers and a root water uptake feature to an existing model. Out modifications lead to increased dry-month transpiration and improved simulation of the annual transpiration cycle.
Sergi Palomas, Mario C. Acosta, Gladys Utrera, and Etienne Tourigny
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3661–3679, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3661-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3661-2025, 2025
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We present an automatic tool that optimizes resource distribution in coupled climate models, enhancing speed and reducing computational costs without requiring expert knowledge. Users can set energy/time criteria or limit resource usage. Tested on various European Community Earth System Model (EC-Earth) configurations and high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, it achieved up to 34 % faster simulations with fewer resources.
Maria Lucia Ferreira Barbosa, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle A. Burton, Igor J. M. Ferreira, Renata Moura da Veiga, Anna Bradley, Paulo Guilherme Molin, and Liana O. Anderson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3533–3557, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3533-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3533-2025, 2025
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As fire seasons in Brazil become increasingly severe, confidently understanding the factors driving fires is more critical than ever. To address this challenge, we developed FLAME (Fire Landscape Analysis using Maximum Entropy), a new model designed to predict fires and to analyse the spatial influence of both environmental and human factors while accounting for uncertainties. By adapting the model to different regions, we can enhance fire management strategies, making FLAME a powerful tool for protecting landscapes in Brazil and beyond.
Victor Couplet, Marina Martínez Montero, and Michel Crucifix
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3081–3129, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025, 2025
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We present SURFER v3.0, a simple climate model designed to estimate the impact of CO2 and CH4 emissions on global temperatures, sea levels, and ocean pH. We added new carbon cycle processes and calibrated the model to observations and results from more complex models, enabling use over timescales ranging from decades to millions of years. SURFER v3.0 is fast, transparent, and easy to use, making it an ideal tool for policy assessments and suitable for educational purposes.
Yong-He Liu and Zong-Liang Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3157–3174, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3157-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3157-2025, 2025
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NMH-CS 3.0 is a C#-based ecohydrological model reconstructed from the WRF-Hydro/Noah-MP model by translating the Fortran code of WRF-Hydro 3.0 and integrating a parallel river routing module. It enables efficient execution on multi-core personal computers. Simulations in the Yellow River basin demonstrate its consistency with WRF-Hydro outputs, providing a reliable alternative to the original Noah-MP model.
Conor T. Doherty, Weile Wang, Hirofumi Hashimoto, and Ian G. Brosnan
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3003–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3003-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3003-2025, 2025
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We present, analyze, and validate a methodology for quantifying uncertainty in gridded meteorological data products produced by spatial interpolation. In a validation case study using daily maximum near-surface air temperature (Tmax), the method works well and produces predictive distributions with closely matching theoretical versus actual coverage levels. Application of the method reveals that the magnitude of uncertainty in interpolated Tmax varies significantly in both space and time.
Martin Juckes, Karl E. Taylor, Fabrizio Antonio, David Brayshaw, Carlo Buontempo, Jian Cao, Paul J. Durack, Michio Kawamiya, Hyungjun Kim, Tomas Lovato, Chloe Mackallah, Matthew Mizielinski, Alessandra Nuzzo, Martina Stockhause, Daniele Visioni, Jeremy Walton, Briony Turner, Eleanor O'Rourke, and Beth Dingley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2639–2663, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2639-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2639-2025, 2025
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The Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling (ESM-BCVs) are defined as a list of 135 variables which have high utility for the evaluation and exploitation of climate simulations. The list reflects the most frequently used variables from Earth system models based on an assessment of data publication and download records from the largest archive of global climate projects.
Yucheng Lin, Robert E. Kopp, Alexander Reedy, Matteo Turilli, Shantenu Jha, and Erica L. Ashe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2609–2637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2609-2025, 2025
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PaleoSTeHM v1.0 is a state-of-the-art framework designed to reconstruct past environmental conditions using geological data. Built on modern machine learning techniques, it efficiently handles the sparse and noisy nature of paleo-records, allowing scientists to make accurate and scalable inferences about past environmental change. By using flexible statistical models, PaleoSTeHM separates different sources of uncertainty, improving the precision of historical climate reconstructions.
Ingo Richter, Ping Chang, Ping-Gin Chiu, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Takeshi Doi, Dietmar Dommenget, Guillaume Gastineau, Zoe E. Gillett, Aixue Hu, Takahito Kataoka, Noel S. Keenlyside, Fred Kucharski, Yuko M. Okumura, Wonsun Park, Malte F. Stuecker, Andréa S. Taschetto, Chunzai Wang, Stephen G. Yeager, and Sang-Wook Yeh
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2587–2608, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2587-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2587-2025, 2025
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Tropical ocean basins influence each other through multiple pathways and mechanisms, referred to here as tropical basin interaction (TBI). Many researchers have examined TBI using comprehensive climate models but have obtained conflicting results. This may be partly due to differences in experiment protocols and partly due to systematic model errors. The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP) aims to address this problem by designing a set of TBI experiments that will be performed by multiple models.
Daniel F. J. Gunning, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2479–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, 2025
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This work documents the first results from ZEMBA: an energy balance model of the climate system. The model is a computationally efficient tool designed to study the response of climate to changes in the Earth's orbit. We demonstrate that ZEMBA reproduces many features of the Earth's climate for both the pre-industrial period and the Earth's most recent cold extreme – the Last Glacial Maximum. We intend to develop ZEMBA further and investigate the glacial cycles of the last 2.5 million years.
Pengfei Shi, L. Ruby Leung, and Bin Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2443–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2443-2025, 2025
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Improving climate predictions has significant socio-economic impacts. In this study, we develop and apply a new weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system to a coupled climate model. The WCODA system improves simulations of ocean temperature and salinity across many global regions. This system is meant to advance our understanding of the ocean's role in climate predictability.
Liwen Wang, Qian Li, Qi Lv, Xuan Peng, and Wei You
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2427–2442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2427-2025, 2025
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Our research presents a novel deep learning approach called "TemDeep" for downscaling atmospheric variables at arbitrary time resolutions based on temporal coherence. Results show that our method can accurately recover evolution details superior to other methods, reaching 53.7 % in the restoration rate. Our findings are important for advancing weather forecasting models and enabling more precise and reliable predictions to support disaster preparedness, agriculture, and sustainable development.
Teo Price-Broncucia, Allison Baker, Dorit Hammerling, Michael Duda, and Rebecca Morrison
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2349–2372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2349-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2349-2025, 2025
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The ensemble consistency test (ECT) and its ultrafast variant (UF-ECT) have become powerful tools in the development community for the identification of unwanted changes in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We develop a generalized setup framework to enable easy adoption of the ECT approach for other model developers and communities. This framework specifies test parameters to accurately characterize model variability and balance test sensitivity and computational cost.
Sergei Petrov, Andreas Will, and Beate Geyer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-710, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-710, 2025
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This study introduces a new method that helps improve the accuracy of climate models by automatically selecting the best parameters to match real-world observations. Instead of manually adjusting many parameters, the method uses a mathematical tool to find the most appropriate settings for the model. It can be especially helpful for researchers who introduce new physical parameters into climate models to assess their impact on model results and optimize them along with the old ones.
Michael Meier, Christof Bigler, and Isabelle Chuine
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-460, 2025
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Formulated according to the leaf development process, the DP3 model of leaf coloring considerably contrasts previous models and allows to set up new hypotheses, e.g. on aging versus stress caused color changes. The DP3 model was as accurate as previous models and a comparison to the constant simulation of the mean date of leaf coloring indicated that noisy leaf coloring data forced the models to resort to this mean, which hinders model evaluation.
Esteban Fernández Villanueva and Gary Shaffer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2161–2192, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2161-2025, 2025
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We describe, calibrate and test the Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS) II model, a new, broad, adaptable and fast Earth system model. DCESS II is designed for global simulations over timescales of years to millions of years using limited computer resources like a personal computer. With its flexibility and comprehensive treatment of the global carbon cycle, DCESS II is a useful, computationally friendly tool for simulations of past climates as well as for future Earth system projections.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Alexander Norton, Sönke Zaehle, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2193–2230, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, 2025
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We studied carbon–nitrogen coupling in Earth system models by developing a global carbon–nitrogen cycle model (CNit v1.0) within the widely used emulator MAGICC. CNit effectively reproduced the global carbon–nitrogen cycle dynamics observed in complex models. Our results show persistent nitrogen limitations on plant growth (net primary production) from 1850 to 2100, suggesting that nitrogen deficiency may constrain future land carbon sequestration.
Ngoc Thi Nhu Do, Kengo Sudo, Akihiko Ito, Louisa K. Emmons, Vaishali Naik, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Gerd A. Folberth, and Douglas I. Kelley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2079–2109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, 2025
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Understanding historical isoprene emission changes is important for predicting future climate, but trends and their controlling factors remain uncertain. This study shows that long-term isoprene trends vary among Earth system models mainly due to partially incorporating CO2 effects and land cover changes rather than to climate. Future models that refine these factors’ effects on isoprene emissions, along with long-term observations, are essential for better understanding plant–climate interactions.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Chris Jones, Thomas Gasser, Alexander Norton, Tilo Ziehn, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2111–2136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, 2025
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We analyzed carbon and nitrogen mass conservation in data from various Earth system models. Our findings reveal significant discrepancies between flux and pool size data, where cumulative imbalances can reach hundreds of gigatons of carbon or nitrogen. These imbalances appear primarily due to missing or inconsistently reported fluxes – especially for land-use and fire emissions. To enhance data quality, we recommend that future climate data protocols address this issue at the reporting stage.
Zhongwang Wei, Qingchen Xu, Fan Bai, Xionghui Xu, Zixin Wei, Wenzong Dong, Hongbin Liang, Nan Wei, Xingjie Lu, Lu Li, Shupeng Zhang, Hua Yuan, Laibo Liu, and Yongjiu Dai
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1380, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1380, 2025
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Land surface models are used for simulating earth's surface interacts with the atmosphere. As models grow more complex and detailed, researchers need better tools to evaluate their performance. OpenBench, a new software system that makes evaluation process more comprehensive and efficient. It stands out by incorporating various factors and working with data at any scale which enabling scientists to incorporate new types of models and measurements as our understanding of Earth’s systems evolves.
Florian Börgel, Sven Karsten, Karoline Rummel, and Ulf Gräwe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2005–2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2005-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2005-2025, 2025
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Forecasting river runoff, which is crucial for managing water resources and understanding climate impacts, can be challenging. This study introduces a new method using convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) networks, a machine learning model that processes spatial and temporal data. Focusing on the Baltic Sea region, our model uses weather data as input to predict daily river runoff for 97 rivers.
Tao Zhang, Cyril Morcrette, Meng Zhang, Wuyin Lin, Shaocheng Xie, Ye Liu, Kwinten Van Weverberg, and Joana Rodrigues
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1917–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1917-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1917-2025, 2025
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Earth system models (ESMs) struggle with the uncertainties associated with parameterizing subgrid physics. Machine learning (ML) algorithms offer a solution by learning the important relationships and features from high-resolution models. To incorporate ML parameterizations into ESMs, we develop a Fortran–Python interface that allows for calling Python functions within Fortran-based ESMs. Through two case studies, this interface demonstrates its feasibility, modularity, and effectiveness.
Kostas Tsigaridis, Andrew S. Ackerman, Igor Aleinov, Mark A. Chandler, Thomas L. Clune, Christopher M. Colose, Anthony D. Del Genio, Maxwell Kelley, Nancy Y. Kiang, Anthony Leboissetier, Jan P. Perlwitz, Reto A. Ruedy, Gary L. Russell, Linda E. Sohl, Michael J. Way, and Eric T. Wolf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-925, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-925, 2025
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We present the second generation of ROCKE-3D, a generalized 3-dimensional model for use in Solar System and exoplanetary simulations of rocky planet climates. We quantify how the different component choices affect model results, and discuss strengths and limitations of using each component, together with how one can select which component to use. ROCKE-3D is publicly available and tutorial sessions are available for the community, greatly facilitating its use by any interested group.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor J. Burke, Gregory Munday, Chris D. Jones, Chris J. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris Huntingford, Eszter Kovacs, Laila K. Gohar, Rebecca M. Varney, and Douglas McNeall
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1785–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, 2025
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We present PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions), which is designed to take new emissions scenarios and rapidly provide regional impact information. PRIME allows large ensembles to be run on multi-centennial timescales, including the analysis of many important variables for impact assessments. Our evaluation shows that PRIME reproduces the climate response for known scenarios, providing confidence in using PRIME for novel scenarios.
Roberto Bilbao, Thomas J. Aubry, Matthew Toohey, and Pablo Ortega
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-609, 2025
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Large volcanic eruptions are unpredictable and can have significant climatic impacts. If one occurs, operational decadal forecasts will become invalid and must be rerun including the volcanic forcing. By analyzing the climate response in EC-Earth3 retrospective predictions, we show that idealised forcings produced with two simple models could be used in operational decadal forecasts to account for the radiative impacts of the next major volcanic eruption.
Beiyao Xu, Steven Dobbie, Huiyi Yang, Lianxin Yang, Yu Jiang, Andrew Challinor, Karina Williams, Yunxia Wang, and Tijian Wang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4077, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4077, 2025
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Ozone (O3) pollution harms rice production and threatens food security. To understand these impacts, we calibrated a crop model using unique data from experiments where rice was grown in open fields under controlled O3 exposure (free air). This is the first time such data has been used to improve a model’s ability to predict how rice responds to O3 pollution. Our work provides a more accurate tool to study O3’s effects and guide strategies to protect agriculture.
Katherine M. Smith, Alice M. Barthel, LeAnn M. Conlon, Luke P. Van Roekel, Anthony Bartoletti, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Chengzhu Zhang, Carolyn Branecky Begeman, James J. Benedict, Gautam Bisht, Yan Feng, Walter Hannah, Bryce E. Harrop, Nicole Jeffery, Wuyin Lin, Po-Lun Ma, Mathew E. Maltrud, Mark R. Petersen, Balwinder Singh, Qi Tang, Teklu Tesfa, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Shaocheng Xie, Xue Zheng, Karthik Balaguru, Oluwayemi Garuba, Peter Gleckler, Aixue Hu, Jiwoo Lee, Ben Moore-Maley, and Ana C. Ordoñez
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1613–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1613-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1613-2025, 2025
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Version 2.1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) adds the Fox-Kemper et al. (2011) mixed-layer eddy parameterization, which restratifies the ocean surface layer through an overturning streamfunction. Results include surface layer bias reduction in temperature, salinity, and sea ice extent in the North Atlantic; a small strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation; and improvements to many atmospheric climatological variables.
Huilin Huang, Yun Qian, Gautam Bisht, Jiali Wang, Tirthankar Chakraborty, Dalei Hao, Jianfeng Li, Travis Thurber, Balwinder Singh, Zhao Yang, Ye Liu, Pengfei Xue, William J. Sacks, Ethan Coon, and Robert Hetland
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1427–1443, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1427-2025, 2025
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We integrate the E3SM Land Model (ELM) with the WRF model through the Lightweight Infrastructure for Land Atmosphere Coupling (LILAC) Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). This framework includes a top-level driver, LILAC, for variable communication between WRF and ELM and ESMF caps for ELM initialization, execution, and finalization. The LILAC–ESMF framework maintains the integrity of the ELM's source code structure and facilitates the transfer of future ELM model developments to WRF-ELM.
Michael Nole, Jonah Bartrand, Fawz Naim, and Glenn Hammond
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1413–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1413-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1413-2025, 2025
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Safe carbon dioxide (CO2) storage is likely to be critical for mitigating some of the most severe effects of climate change. We present a simulation framework for modeling CO2 storage beneath the seafloor, where CO2 can form a solid. This can aid in permanent CO2 storage for long periods of time. Our models show what a commercial-scale CO2 injection would look like in a marine environment. We discuss what would need to be considered when designing a subsea CO2 injection.
Reyk Börner, Jan O. Haerter, and Romain Fiévet
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1333–1356, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1333-2025, 2025
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The daily cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) impacts clouds above the ocean and could influence the clustering of thunderstorms linked to extreme rainfall and hurricanes. However, daily SST variability is often poorly represented in modeling studies of how clouds cluster. We present a simple, wind-responsive model of upper-ocean temperature for use in atmospheric simulations. Evaluating the model against observations, we show that it performs significantly better than common slab models.
Malcolm J. Roberts, Kevin A. Reed, Qing Bao, Joseph J. Barsugli, Suzana J. Camargo, Louis-Philippe Caron, Ping Chang, Cheng-Ta Chen, Hannah M. Christensen, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Ivy Frenger, Neven S. Fučkar, Shabeh ul Hasson, Helene T. Hewitt, Huanping Huang, Daehyun Kim, Chihiro Kodama, Michael Lai, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung, Ryo Mizuta, Paulo Nobre, Pablo Ortega, Dominique Paquin, Christopher D. Roberts, Enrico Scoccimarro, Jon Seddon, Anne Marie Treguier, Chia-Ying Tu, Paul A. Ullrich, Pier Luigi Vidale, Michael F. Wehner, Colin M. Zarzycki, Bosong Zhang, Wei Zhang, and Ming Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1307–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, 2025
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HighResMIP2 is a model intercomparison project focusing on high-resolution global climate models, that is, those with grid spacings of 25 km or less in the atmosphere and ocean, using simulations of decades to a century in length. We are proposing an update of our simulation protocol to make the models more applicable to key questions for climate variability and hazard in present-day and future projections and to build links with other communities to provide more robust climate information.
Jordi Buckley Paules, Simone Fatichi, Bonnie Warring, and Athanasios Paschalis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1287–1305, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1287-2025, 2025
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We present and validate enhancements to the process-based T&C model aimed at improving its representation of crop growth and management practices. The updated model, T&C-CROP, enables applications such as analysing the hydrological and carbon storage impacts of land use transitions (e.g. conversions between crops, forests, and pastures) and optimizing irrigation and fertilization strategies in response to climate change.
Sébastien Masson, Swen Jullien, Eric Maisonnave, David Gill, Guillaume Samson, Mathieu Le Corre, and Lionel Renault
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1241–1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1241-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1241-2025, 2025
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This article details a new feature we implemented in the popular regional atmospheric model WRF. This feature allows for data exchange between WRF and any other model (e.g. an ocean model) using the coupling library Ocean–Atmosphere–Sea–Ice–Soil Model Coupling Toolkit (OASIS3-MCT). This coupling interface is designed to be non-intrusive, flexible and modular. It also offers the possibility of taking into account the nested zooms used in WRF or in the models with which it is coupled.
Axel Lauer, Lisa Bock, Birgit Hassler, Patrick Jöckel, Lukas Ruhe, and Manuel Schlund
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1169–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, 2025
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Earth system models are important tools to improve our understanding of current climate and to project climate change. Thus, it is crucial to understand possible shortcomings in the models. New features of the ESMValTool software package allow one to compare and visualize a model's performance with respect to reproducing observations in the context of other climate models in an easy and user-friendly way. We aim to help model developers assess and monitor climate simulations more efficiently.
Ulrich G. Wortmann, Tina Tsan, Mahrukh Niazi, Irene A. Ma, Ruben Navasardyan, Magnus-Roland Marun, Bernardo S. Chede, Jingwen Zhong, and Morgan Wolfe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1155–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1155-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1155-2025, 2025
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The Earth Science Box Modeling Toolkit (ESBMTK) is a user-friendly Python library that simplifies the creation of models to study earth system processes, such as the carbon cycle and ocean chemistry. It enhances learning by emphasizing concepts over programming and is accessible to students and researchers alike. By automating complex calculations and promoting code clarity, ESBMTK accelerates model development while improving reproducibility and the usability of scientific research.
Florian Zabel, Matthias Knüttel, and Benjamin Poschlod
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1067–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1067-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1067-2025, 2025
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CropSuite is a new open-source crop suitability model. It provides a GUI and a wide range of options, including a spatial downscaling of climate data. We apply CropSuite to 48 staple and opportunity crops at a 1 km spatial resolution in Africa. We find that climate variability significantly impacts suitable areas but also affects optimal sowing dates and multiple cropping potential. The results provide valuable information for climate impact assessments, adaptation, and land-use planning.
Kerstin Hartung, Bastian Kern, Nils-Arne Dreier, Jörn Geisbüsch, Mahnoosh Haghighatnasab, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, Wilton Jaciel Loch, Florian Prill, and Daniel Rieger
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1001–1015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, 2025
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The ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON) model system Community Interface (ComIn) library supports connecting third-party modules to the ICON model. Third-party modules can range from simple diagnostic Python scripts to full chemistry models. ComIn offers a low barrier for code extensions to ICON, provides multi-language support (Fortran, C/C++, and Python), and reduces the migration effort in response to new ICON releases. This paper presents the ComIn design principles and a range of use cases.
Daniel Ries, Katherine Goode, Kellie McClernon, and Benjamin Hillman
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1041–1065, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1041-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1041-2025, 2025
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Machine learning has advanced research in the climate science domain, but its models are difficult to understand. In order to understand the impacts and consequences of climate interventions such as stratospheric aerosol injection, complex models are often necessary. We use a case study to illustrate how we can understand the inner workings of a complex model. We present this technique as an exploratory tool that can be used to quickly discover and assess relationships in complex climate data.
Bo Dong, Paul Ullrich, Jiwoo Lee, Peter Gleckler, Kristin Chang, and Travis A. O'Brien
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 961–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-961-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-961-2025, 2025
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A metrics package designed for easy analysis of atmospheric river (AR) characteristics and statistics is presented. The tool is efficient for diagnosing systematic AR bias in climate models and useful for evaluating new AR characteristics in model simulations. In climate models, landfalling AR precipitation shows dry biases globally, and AR tracks are farther poleward (equatorward) in the North and South Atlantic (South Pacific and Indian Ocean).
Cited articles
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Anet, J. G., Muthers, S., Rozanov, E., Raible, C. C., Peter, T., Stenke, A., Shapiro, A. I., Beer, J., Steinhilber, F., Brönnimann, S., Arfeuille, F., Brugnara, Y., and Schmutz, W.: Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10951–10967, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, 2013a.
Anet, J. G., Rozanov, E. V., Muthers, S., Peter, T., Brönnimann, S., Arfeuille, F., Beer, J., Shapiro, A. I., Raible, C. C., Steinhilber, F., and Schmutz, W. K.: Impact of a potential 21st century "grand solar minimum" on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4420–4425, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50806, 2013b.
Anet, J. G., Muthers, S., Rozanov, E. V., Raible, C. C., Stenke, A., Shapiro, A. I., Brönnimann, S., Arfeuille, F., Brugnara, Y., Beer, J., Steinhilber, F., Schmutz, W., and Peter, T.: Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum, Clim. Past, 10, 921–938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, 2014.
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