Articles | Volume 15, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-535-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-535-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Methods for assessment of models
| 
25 Jan 2022
Methods for assessment of models |
| 25 Jan 2022
| 25 Jan 2022
A method for assessment of the general circulation model quality using the K-means clustering algorithm: a case study with GETM v2.5
Urmas Raudsepp
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Marine Systems, Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn, 19086, Estonia
Ilja Maljutenko
Department of Marine Systems, Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn, 19086, Estonia
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Jüri Elken, Ilja Maljutenko, Priidik Lagemaa, Rivo Uiboupin, and Urmas Raudsepp
State Planet, 4-osr8, 9, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-9-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-9-2024, 2024
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Baltic deep water is generally warmer than surface water during winter when district heating is required. Depending on the location, depth, and oceanographic situation, bottom water of Tallinn Bay can be used as an energy source for seawater heat pumps until the end of February, covering the major time interval when heating is needed. Episodically, there are colder-water events when seawater heat extraction has to be complemented by other sources of heating energy.
Anja Lindenthal, Claudia Hinrichs, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Tim Kruschke, Priidik Lagemaa, Eefke M. van der Lee, Ilja Maljutenko, Helen E. Morrison, Tabea R. Panteleit, and Urmas Raudsepp
State Planet, 4-osr8, 16, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-16-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-16-2024, 2024
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In 2022, large parts of the Baltic Sea experienced the third-warmest to warmest summer and autumn temperatures since 1997 and several marine heatwaves (MHWs). Using remote sensing, reanalysis, and in situ data, this study characterizes regional differences in MHW properties in the Baltic Sea in 2022. Furthermore, it presents an analysis of long-term trends and the relationship between atmospheric warming and MHW occurrences, including their propagation into deeper layers.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Ali Aydogdu, Lluis Castrillo, Daniele Ciani, Andrea Cipollone, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Kevin Hodges, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Priidik Lagemaa, Vidar Lien, Leonardo Lima, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Ilja Maljutenko, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Pietro Miraglio, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Urmas Raudsepp, Roshin Raj, Ad Stoffelen, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, and Chunxue Yang
State Planet, 4-osr8, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, 2024
Urmas Raudsepp, Ilja Maljutenko, Priidik Lagemaa, and Karina von Schuckmann
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-19, 2024
Preprint under review for SP
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Over the last three decades, the Baltic Sea has experienced rising temperature and salinity, reflecting broader atmospheric warming. Heat content fluctuations are driven by subsurface temperature changes in the upper 100 meters, including the thermocline and halocline, influenced by air temperature, evaporation, and wind stress. Freshwater content changes mainly result from salinity shifts in the halocline, with saline water inflow, precipitation, and wind stress as key factors.
Urmas Raudsepp, Ilja Maljutenko, Amirhossein Barzandeh, Rivo Uiboupin, and Priidik Lagemaa
State Planet, 1-osr7, 7, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-7-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-7-2023, 2023
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The freshwater content in the Baltic Sea has wide sub-regional variability characterized by the local climate dynamics. The total freshwater content trend is negative due to the recent increased inflows of saltwater, but there are also regions where the increase in runoff and decrease in ice content have led to an increase in the freshwater content.
Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Lasse Johansson, Magda Wilewska-Bien, Lena Granhag, Erik Ytreberg, K. Martin Eriksson, Daniel Yngsell, Ida-Maja Hassellöv, Kerstin Magnusson, Urmas Raudsepp, Ilja Maljutenko, Hulda Winnes, and Jana Moldanova
Ocean Sci., 17, 699–728, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-699-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-699-2021, 2021
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This modelling study describes a methodology for describing pollutant discharges from ships to the sea. The pilot area used is the Baltic Sea area and discharges of bilge, ballast, sewage, wash water as well as stern tube oil are reported for the year 2012. This work also reports the release of SOx scrubber effluents. This technique may be used by ships to comply with tight sulfur limits inside Emission Control Areas, but it also introduces a new pollutant stream from ships to the sea.
Lasse Johansson, Erik Ytreberg, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Erik Fridell, K. Martin Eriksson, Maria Lagerström, Ilja Maljutenko, Urmas Raudsepp, Vivian Fischer, and Eva Roth
Ocean Sci., 16, 1143–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1143-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1143-2020, 2020
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Very little is currently known about the activities and emissions of private leisure boats. To change this, a new model was created (BEAM). The model was used for the Baltic Sea to estimate leisure boat emissions, also considering antifouling paint leach. When compared to commercial shipping, the modeled leisure boat emissions were seen to be surprisingly large for some pollutant species, and these emissions were heavily concentrated on coastal inhabited areas during summer and early autumn.
Amirhossein Barzandeh, Marko Rus, Matjaž Ličer, Ilja Maljutenko, Jüri Elken, Priidik Lagemaa, and Rivo Uiboupin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3691, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
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We evaluated a deep-learning model, HIDRA2, for predicting sea levels along the Estonian coast and compared it to traditional numerical models. HIDRA2 performed better overall, offering faster forecasts and valuable uncertainty estimates using ensemble predictions.
Jüri Elken, Ilja Maljutenko, Priidik Lagemaa, Rivo Uiboupin, and Urmas Raudsepp
State Planet, 4-osr8, 9, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-9-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-9-2024, 2024
Short summary
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Baltic deep water is generally warmer than surface water during winter when district heating is required. Depending on the location, depth, and oceanographic situation, bottom water of Tallinn Bay can be used as an energy source for seawater heat pumps until the end of February, covering the major time interval when heating is needed. Episodically, there are colder-water events when seawater heat extraction has to be complemented by other sources of heating energy.
Anja Lindenthal, Claudia Hinrichs, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Tim Kruschke, Priidik Lagemaa, Eefke M. van der Lee, Ilja Maljutenko, Helen E. Morrison, Tabea R. Panteleit, and Urmas Raudsepp
State Planet, 4-osr8, 16, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-16-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-16-2024, 2024
Short summary
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In 2022, large parts of the Baltic Sea experienced the third-warmest to warmest summer and autumn temperatures since 1997 and several marine heatwaves (MHWs). Using remote sensing, reanalysis, and in situ data, this study characterizes regional differences in MHW properties in the Baltic Sea in 2022. Furthermore, it presents an analysis of long-term trends and the relationship between atmospheric warming and MHW occurrences, including their propagation into deeper layers.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Ali Aydogdu, Lluis Castrillo, Daniele Ciani, Andrea Cipollone, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Kevin Hodges, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Priidik Lagemaa, Vidar Lien, Leonardo Lima, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Ilja Maljutenko, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Pietro Miraglio, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Urmas Raudsepp, Roshin Raj, Ad Stoffelen, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, and Chunxue Yang
State Planet, 4-osr8, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, 2024
Urmas Raudsepp, Ilja Maljutenko, Priidik Lagemaa, and Karina von Schuckmann
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-19, 2024
Preprint under review for SP
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Over the last three decades, the Baltic Sea has experienced rising temperature and salinity, reflecting broader atmospheric warming. Heat content fluctuations are driven by subsurface temperature changes in the upper 100 meters, including the thermocline and halocline, influenced by air temperature, evaporation, and wind stress. Freshwater content changes mainly result from salinity shifts in the halocline, with saline water inflow, precipitation, and wind stress as key factors.
Shakti Singh, Ilja Maljutenko, and Rivo Uiboupin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1701, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1701, 2024
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The sea ice statistics study highlights the bias in model estimations compared to satellite data and provides a simple approach to minimise that. During the study period, the model estimates sea ice forming slightly earlier but aligns well with the satellite data for ice season's end. Rapid decrease in the sea ice parameters is observed across the Baltic Sea, especially the ice thickness in the Bothnian Bay sub-basin. These statistics could be crucial for regional adaptation strategies.
Jan Åström, Fredrik Robertsen, Jari Haapala, Arttu Polojärvi, Rivo Uiboupin, and Ilja Maljutenko
The Cryosphere, 18, 2429–2442, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2429-2024, 2024
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The HiDEM code has been developed for analyzing the fracture and fragmentation of brittle materials and has been extensively applied to glacier calving. Here, we report on the adaptation of the code to sea-ice dynamics and breakup. The code demonstrates the capability to simulate sea-ice dynamics on a 100 km scale with an unprecedented resolution. We argue that codes of this type may become useful for improving forecasts of sea-ice dynamics.
Urmas Raudsepp, Ilja Maljutenko, Amirhossein Barzandeh, Rivo Uiboupin, and Priidik Lagemaa
State Planet, 1-osr7, 7, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-7-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-7-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The freshwater content in the Baltic Sea has wide sub-regional variability characterized by the local climate dynamics. The total freshwater content trend is negative due to the recent increased inflows of saltwater, but there are also regions where the increase in runoff and decrease in ice content have led to an increase in the freshwater content.
Tuomas Kärnä, Patrik Ljungemyr, Saeed Falahat, Ida Ringgaard, Lars Axell, Vasily Korabel, Jens Murawski, Ilja Maljutenko, Anja Lindenthal, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Svetlana Verjovkina, Ina Lorkowski, Priidik Lagemaa, Jun She, Laura Tuomi, Adam Nord, and Vibeke Huess
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5731–5749, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5731-2021, 2021
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We present Nemo-Nordic 2.0, a novel operational marine model for the Baltic Sea. The model covers the Baltic Sea and the North Sea with approximately 1 nmi resolution. We validate the model's performance against sea level, water temperature, and salinity observations, as well as sea ice charts. The skill analysis demonstrates that Nemo-Nordic 2.0 can reproduce the hydrographic features of the Baltic Sea.
Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Lasse Johansson, Magda Wilewska-Bien, Lena Granhag, Erik Ytreberg, K. Martin Eriksson, Daniel Yngsell, Ida-Maja Hassellöv, Kerstin Magnusson, Urmas Raudsepp, Ilja Maljutenko, Hulda Winnes, and Jana Moldanova
Ocean Sci., 17, 699–728, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-699-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-699-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This modelling study describes a methodology for describing pollutant discharges from ships to the sea. The pilot area used is the Baltic Sea area and discharges of bilge, ballast, sewage, wash water as well as stern tube oil are reported for the year 2012. This work also reports the release of SOx scrubber effluents. This technique may be used by ships to comply with tight sulfur limits inside Emission Control Areas, but it also introduces a new pollutant stream from ships to the sea.
Lasse Johansson, Erik Ytreberg, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Erik Fridell, K. Martin Eriksson, Maria Lagerström, Ilja Maljutenko, Urmas Raudsepp, Vivian Fischer, and Eva Roth
Ocean Sci., 16, 1143–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1143-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1143-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Very little is currently known about the activities and emissions of private leisure boats. To change this, a new model was created (BEAM). The model was used for the Baltic Sea to estimate leisure boat emissions, also considering antifouling paint leach. When compared to commercial shipping, the modeled leisure boat emissions were seen to be surprisingly large for some pollutant species, and these emissions were heavily concentrated on coastal inhabited areas during summer and early autumn.
Edith Soosaar, Ilja Maljutenko, Rivo Uiboupin, Maris Skudra, and Urmas Raudsepp
Ocean Sci., 12, 417–432, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-417-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-417-2016, 2016
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Remote sensing imagery and numerical model study of river bulge evolution and dynamics in a non-tidal sea showed an anti-cyclonically rotating bulge during the studied low wind period in the Gulf of Riga. In about 7–8 days the bulge grew up to 20 km in diameter, before being diluted. Both model and satellite images showed river water mainly contained in the bulge. The study shows significant effects of the wind in the evolution of the river bulge, even if the wind speed was moderate (3–4 m s−1).
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Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 843–861, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-843-2025, 2025
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Yuta Kawai and Hirofumi Tomita
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 725–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-725-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-725-2025, 2025
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When considering future high-resolution atmospheric simulations with O(10–100 m) grid spacing, such as global large-eddy simulations, numerical errors with the conventional low-order dynamical cores can contaminate the effects of turbulent parameterization. To achieve high-order discretization, we developed a global atmospheric dynamical core using the discontinuous Galerkin method (DGM). By conducting several validation tests, we discussed the impact of a high-order DGM on atmospheric flows.
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Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8853–8872, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8853-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8853-2024, 2024
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Making an informed decision about what prior information to incorporate or discard in an inverse model is important yet very challenging, as it is often not straightforward to distinguish between informative and non-informative variables. In this study, we develop a new approach for incorporating prior information in an inverse model using predictor variables, while simultaneously selecting the relevant predictor variables for the estimation of the unknown quantity of interest.
Joonlee Lee, Myong-In Lee, Sunlae Tak, Eunkyo Seo, and Yong-Keun Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8799–8816, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8799-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8799-2024, 2024
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We developed an advanced snow water equivalent (SWE) data assimilation framework using satellite data based on a land surface model. The results of this study highlight the beneficial impact of data assimilation by effectively combining land surface model and satellite-derived data according to their relative uncertainty, thereby controlling not only transitional regions but also the regions with heavy snow accumulation that are difficult to detect by satellite.
Frédéric Parrenin, Marie Bouchet, Christo Buizert, Emilie Capron, Ellen Corrick, Russell Drysdale, Kenji Kawamura, Amaëlle Landais, Robert Mulvaney, Ikumi Oyabu, and Sune Olander Rasmussen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8735–8750, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8735-2024, 2024
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The Paleochrono-1.1 probabilistic dating model allows users to derive a common and optimized chronology for several paleoclimatic sites from various archives (ice cores, speleothems, marine cores, lake cores, etc.). It combines prior sedimentation scenarios with chronological information such as dated horizons, dated intervals, stratigraphic links and (for ice cores) Δdepth observations. Paleochrono-1.1 is available under an open-source license.
Jeffrey H. Curtis, Nicole Riemer, and Matthew West
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8399–8420, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8399-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8399-2024, 2024
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This paper introduces a numerical method for simulating particle-based aerosol transport in atmospheric models. We detail the various numerical properties of the advection order method and demonstrate its implementation in a 3D weather prediction model (WRF) for the first time. Particle-based techniques improve the accuracy of aerosol size and composition predictions, which are key for aerosol–cloud and aerosol–radiation interactions.
Jiayi Lai, Lanning Wang, Qizhong Wu, Yizhou Yang, and Fang Wang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2986, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2986, 2024
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In this study, we applied the quasi double-precision algorithm to MPAS-A. Found that, the algorithm can effectively reduce the errors introduced by using low precision through the iterative process of time integration. The error of surface pressure of 4 cases are reduced by 68%, 75%, 97%, 96%. When applied the quasi double-precision algorithm in MPAS-A, we achieved to reduce all double precision to single precision, memory has been reduced by almost half, while the computation increases only 2%.
Matt J. Fischer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6745–6760, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6745-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6745-2024, 2024
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In paleoclimate research, proxy system models (PSMs) model chemical or biological systems which receive environmental input and output (e.g., geochemical signals). The environmental inputs are rarely noiseless, which causes problems when calibrating multi-input PSMs. Here a PSM is developed which includes generalized noise in both model inputs and outputs and prior information. A quasi-Bayesian method enhances the stability of the solution of the Measurement Error Proxy System Model.
Joshua M. Wolstenholme, Christopher J. Skinner, David J. Milan, Robert E. Thomas, and Daniel R. Parsons
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2132, 2024
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Leaky wooden dams are a type of natural flood management intervention that aim to reduce flood risk downstream by temporarily holding back water during a storm event and releasing it afterwards. These structures alter the river hydrology, and therefore the geomorphology, yet often this is excluded from numerical models. Here we show that by not simulating geomorphology we are currently underestimating the efficacy of these structures to reduce the flood peak and store water.
Gong Cheng, Mathieu Morlighem, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6227–6247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6227-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6227-2024, 2024
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We conducted a comprehensive analysis of the stabilization and reinitialization techniques currently employed in ISSM and Úa for solving level-set equations, specifically those related to the dynamic representation of moving ice fronts within numerical ice sheet models. Our results demonstrate that the streamline upwind Petrov–Galerkin (SUPG) method outperforms the other approaches. We found that excessively frequent reinitialization can lead to exceptionally high errors in simulations.
Hugo Dominguez, Nicolas Riel, and Pierre Lanari
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6105–6122, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6105-2024, 2024
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Predicting the behaviour of magmatic systems is important for understanding Earth's matter and heat transport. Numerical modelling is a technique that can predict complex systems at different scales of space and time by solving equations using various techniques. This study tests four algorithms to find the best way to transport the melt composition. The "weighted essentially non-oscillatory" algorithm emerges as the best choice, minimising errors and preserving system mass well.
Reuben W. Nixon-Hill, Daniel Shapero, Colin J. Cotter, and David A. Ham
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5369–5386, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5369-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5369-2024, 2024
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Scientists often use models to study complex processes, like the movement of ice sheets, and compare them to measurements for estimating quantities that are hard to measure. We highlight an approach that ensures accurate results from point data sources (e.g. height measurements) by evaluating the numerical solution at true point locations. This method improves accuracy, aids communication between scientists, and is well-suited for integration with specialised software that automates processes.
Swen Metzger, Samuel Rémy, Jason E. Williams, Vincent Huijnen, and Johannes Flemming
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5009–5021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5009-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5009-2024, 2024
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EQSAM4Clim has recently been revised to provide an accurate and efficient method for calculating the acidity of atmospheric particles. It is based on an analytical concept that is sufficiently fast and free of numerical noise, which makes it attractive for air quality forecasting. Version 12 allows the calculation of aerosol composition based on the gas–liquid–solid and the reduced gas–liquid partitioning with the associated water uptake for both cases, including the acidity of the aerosols.
Niko Schmidt, Angelika Humbert, and Thomas Slawig
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4943–4959, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4943-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4943-2024, 2024
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Future sea-level rise is of big significance for coastal regions. The melting and acceleration of glaciers plays a major role in sea-level change. Computer simulation of glaciers costs a lot of computational resources. In this publication, we test a new way of simulating glaciers. This approach produces the same results but has the advantage that it needs much less computation time. As simulations can be obtained with fewer computation resources, higher resolution and physics become affordable.
Jevgenijs Steinbuks, Yongyang Cai, Jonas Jaegermeyr, and Thomas W. Hertel
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4791–4819, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4791-2024, 2024
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This paper applies a cutting-edge numerical method, SCEQ, to show how uncertain climate change and technological progress affect the future utilization of the world's scarce land resources. The paper's key insight is to illustrate how much global cropland will expand when future crop yields are unknown. The study finds the range of outcomes for land use change to be smaller when using this novel method compared to existing deterministic models.
Gianandrea Mannarini, Mario Leonardo Salinas, Lorenzo Carelli, Nicola Petacco, and Josip Orović
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4355–4382, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4355-2024, 2024
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Ship weather routing has the potential to reduce CO2 emissions, but it currently lacks open and verifiable research. The Python-refactored VISIR-2 model considers currents, waves, and wind to optimise routes. The model was validated, and its computational performance is quasi-linear. For a ferry sailing in the Mediterranean Sea, VISIR-2 yields the largest percentage emission savings for upwind navigation. Given the vessel performance curve, the model is generalisable across various vessel types.
Soyoung Ha, Jonathan J. Guerrette, Ivette Hernández Baños, William C. Skamarock, and Michael G. Duda
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4199–4211, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4199-2024, 2024
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To mitigate the imbalances in the initial conditions, this study introduces our recent implementation of the incremental analysis update (IAU) in the Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmospheric (MPAS-A) component coupled with the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI) through the cycling system. A month-long cycling run demonstrates the successful implementation of the IAU capability in the MPAS–JEDI cycling system.
Federica Castino, Feijia Yin, Volker Grewe, Hiroshi Yamashita, Sigrun Matthes, Simone Dietmüller, Sabine Baumann, Manuel Soler, Abolfazl Simorgh, Maximilian Mendiguchia Meuser, Florian Linke, and Benjamin Lührs
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4031–4052, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4031-2024, 2024
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We introduce SolFinder 1.0, a decision-making tool to select trade-offs between different objective functions for optimal aircraft trajectories, including fuel use, flight time, NOx emissions, contrail distance, and climate impact. The module is included in the AirTraf 3.0 submodel and uses weather conditions simulated by the EMAC atmospheric model. This paper focuses on the ability of SolFinder to identify eco-efficient trajectories, reducing a flight's climate impact at limited cost penalties.
Stefania Renna, Francesco Granella, Lara Aleluia Reis, and Paulina Estela Schulz-Antipa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4591252, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4591252, 2024
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The Country Level Air Quality Calculator (CLAQC) is a new fast modeling tool that predicts globally country-level monthly and annual concentrations of two major air pollutants, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and tropospheric ozone (O3). It was designed to inform national and regional climate and pollution mitigation policies. It is easy to use and computationally efficient, allowing the simulation of a large number of policy scenarios for policy assessments and optimization frameworks.
Ali Dashti, Jens C. Grimmer, Christophe Geuzaine, Florian Bauer, and Thomas Kohl
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3467–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3467-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3467-2024, 2024
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This study developed new meshing workflows to enable the automatic generation of meshes that follow geological models. The workflow allows for importing several geological models as input for Gmsh and later exporting the same number of high-quality meshes. This way, geological uncertainty is directly included in the numerical simulations. This study evaluates the impact of the geological uncertainty on thermohydraulic performance of two reservoirs for high-temperature heat storage applications.
Wangbin Shen, Zhaohui Lin, Zhengkun Qin, and Juan Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3447–3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3447-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3447-2024, 2024
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In this study, a land surface image assimilation system capable of optimizing the spatial structure of the background field is constructed by introducing the curvelet analysis method and taking the similarity of image structure as a weak constraint. The findings demonstrate that the assimilation of surface soil moisture observation images effectively and reasonably enhances the spatial structure of soil moisture analysis field.
Luan Carlos de Sena Monteiro Ozelim, Michéle Dal Toé Casagrande, and André Luís Brasil Cavalcante
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3175–3197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3175-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3175-2024, 2024
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The paper addresses synthetic dataset challenges in nonlinear constitutive modeling of soils, providing two datasets: one with 2000 soil types, 40 test conditions each (160 000 triaxial tests), and a second with 2048 soil types, 42 test conditions each (172 032 triaxial tests). Each dataset is a 4000×10 matrix applicable for multivariate forecasting and geotechnical simulations. In addition, a new Python code is introduced, empowering researchers to leverage Python packages for NorSand analyses.
Daniel Giles, Matthew M. Graham, Mosè Giordano, Tuomas Koskela, Alexandros Beskos, and Serge Guillas
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2427–2445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2427-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2427-2024, 2024
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Digital twins of physical and human systems informed by real-time data are becoming ubiquitous across a wide range of settings. Progress for researchers is currently limited by a lack of tools to run these models effectively and efficiently. A key challenge is the optimal use of high-performance computing environments. The work presented here focuses on a developed open-source software platform which aims to improve this usage, with an emphasis placed on flexibility, efficiency, and scalability.
Stefan J. Miller, Paul A. Makar, and Colin J. Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2197–2219, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2197-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2197-2024, 2024
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This work outlines a new solver written in Fortran to calculate the partitioning of metastable aerosols at thermodynamic equilibrium based on the forward algorithms of ISORROPIA II. The new code includes numerical improvements that decrease the computational speed (compared to ISORROPIA II) while improving the accuracy of the partitioning solution.
Fernanda Alvarado-Neves, Laurent Ailleres, Lachlan Grose, Alexander R. Cruden, and Robin Armit
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1975–1993, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1975-2024, 2024
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Previous work has demonstrated that adding geological knowledge to modelling methods creates more accurate and reliable models. Following this reasoning, we added constraints from magma emplacement mechanisms into existing modelling frameworks to improve the 3D characterisation of igneous intrusions. We tested the method on synthetic and real-world case studies, and the results show that our method can reproduce intrusion morphologies with no manual processing and using realistic datasets.
André R. Brodtkorb, Anna Benedictow, Heiko Klein, Arve Kylling, Agnes Nyiri, Alvaro Valdebenito, Espen Sollum, and Nina Kristiansen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1957–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1957-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1957-2024, 2024
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It is vital to know the extent and concentration of volcanic ash in the atmosphere during a volcanic eruption. Whilst satellite imagery may give an estimate of the ash right now (assuming no cloud coverage), we also need to know where it will be in the coming hours. This paper presents a method for estimating parameters for a volcanic eruption based on satellite observations of ash in the atmosphere. The software package is open source and applicable to similar inversion scenarios.
Kees Nederhoff, Maarten van Ormondt, Jay Veeramony, Ap van Dongeren, José Antonio Álvarez Antolínez, Tim Leijnse, and Dano Roelvink
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1789–1811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1789-2024, 2024
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Forecasting tropical cyclones and their flooding impact is challenging. Our research introduces the Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Framework (TC-FF), enhancing cyclone predictions despite uncertainties. TC-FF generates global wind and flood scenarios, valuable even in data-limited regions. Applied to cases like Cyclone Idai, it showcases potential in bettering disaster preparation, marking progress in handling cyclone threats.
Younghun Kang and Ethan J. Kubatko
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1603–1625, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1603-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1603-2024, 2024
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Models used to simulate the flow of coastal and riverine waters, including flooding, require a geometric representation (or mesh) of geographic features that exhibit a range of disparate spatial scales from large, open waters to small, narrow channels. Representing these features in an accurate way without excessive computational overhead presents a challenge. Here, we develop an automatic mesh generation tool to help address this challenge. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of our approach.
Hui Wan, Kai Zhang, Christopher J. Vogl, Carol S. Woodward, Richard C. Easter, Philip J. Rasch, Yan Feng, and Hailong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1387–1407, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1387-2024, 2024
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Sophisticated numerical models of the Earth's atmosphere include representations of many physical and chemical processes. In numerical simulations, these processes need to be calculated in a certain sequence. This study reveals the weaknesses of the sequence of calculations used for aerosol processes in a global atmosphere model. A revision of the sequence is proposed and its impacts on the simulated global aerosol climatology are evaluated.
Christopher J. Vogl, Hui Wan, Carol S. Woodward, and Quan M. Bui
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1409–1428, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1409-2024, 2024
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Generally speaking, accurate climate simulation requires an accurate evolution of the underlying mathematical equations on large computers. The equations are typically formulated and evolved in process groups. Process coupling refers to how the evolution of each group is combined with that of other groups to evolve the full set of equations for the whole atmosphere. This work presents a mathematical framework to evaluate methods without the need to first implement the methods.
Tom Keel, Chris Brierley, and Tamsin Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1229–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1229-2024, 2024
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Jet streams are an important control on surface weather as their speed and shape can modify the properties of weather systems. Establishing trends in the operation of jet streams may provide some indication of the future of weather in a warming world. Despite this, it has not been easy to establish trends, as many methods have been used to characterise them in data. We introduce a tool containing various implementations of jet stream statistics and algorithms that works in a standardised manner.
Amir Golparvar, Matthias Kästner, and Martin Thullner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 881–898, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-881-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-881-2024, 2024
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Coupled reaction transport modelling is an established and beneficial method for studying natural and synthetic porous material, with applications ranging from industrial processes to natural decompositions in terrestrial environments. Up to now, a framework that explicitly considers the porous structure (e.g. from µ-CT images) for modelling the transport of reactive species is missing. We presented a model that overcomes this limitation and represents a novel numerical simulation toolbox.
Stefan Hergarten
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 781–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-781-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-781-2024, 2024
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The Voellmy rheology has been widely used for simulating snow and rock avalanches. Recently, a modified version of this rheology was proposed, which turned out to be able to predict the observed long runout of large rock avalanches theoretically. The software MinVoellmy presented here is the first numerical implementation of the modified rheology. It consists of MATLAB and Python classes, where simplicity and parsimony were the design goals.
Arjun Babu Nellikkattil, Danielle Lemmon, Travis Allen O'Brien, June-Yi Lee, and Jung-Eun Chu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 301–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-301-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-301-2024, 2024
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This study introduces a new computational framework called Scalable Feature Extraction and Tracking (SCAFET), designed to extract and track features in climate data. SCAFET stands out by using innovative shape-based metrics to identify features without relying on preconceived assumptions about the climate model or mean state. This approach allows more accurate comparisons between different models and scenarios.
Mohammad Mortezazadeh, Jean-François Cossette, Ashu Dastoor, Jean de Grandpré, Irena Ivanova, and Abdessamad Qaddouri
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 335–346, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-335-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-335-2024, 2024
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The interpolation process is the most computationally expensive step of the semi-Lagrangian (SL) approach. In this paper we implement a new interpolation scheme into the semi-Lagrangian approach which has the same computational cost as a third-order polynomial scheme but with the accuracy of a fourth-order interpolation scheme. This improvement is achieved by using two third-order backward and forward polynomial interpolation schemes in two consecutive time steps.
Boris Gailleton, Luca C. Malatesta, Guillaume Cordonnier, and Jean Braun
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 71–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-71-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-71-2024, 2024
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This contribution presents a new method to numerically explore the evolution of mountain ranges and surrounding areas. The method helps in monitoring with details on the timing and travel path of material eroded from the mountain ranges. It is particularly well suited to studies juxtaposing different domains – lakes or multiple rock types, for example – and enables the combination of different processes.
Denise Degen, Daniel Caviedes Voullième, Susanne Buiter, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, Harry Vereecken, Ana González-Nicolás, and Florian Wellmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7375–7409, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7375-2023, 2023
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In geosciences, we often use simulations based on physical laws. These simulations can be computationally expensive, which is a problem if simulations must be performed many times (e.g., to add error bounds). We show how a novel machine learning method helps to reduce simulation time. In comparison to other approaches, which typically only look at the output of a simulation, the method considers physical laws in the simulation itself. The method provides reliable results faster than standard.
Carlos Spa, Otilio Rojas, and Josep de la Puente
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7237–7252, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7237-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7237-2023, 2023
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This paper develops a calibration methodology of all absorbing techniques typically used by Fourier pseudo-spectral time-domain (PSTD) methods for geoacoustic wave simulations. The main contributions of the paper are (a) an implementation and quantitative comparison of all absorbing techniques available for PSTD methods through a simple and robust numerical experiment, and (b) a validation of these absorbing techniques in several 3-D seismic scenarios with gradual heterogeneity complexities.
Michael Hillier, Florian Wellmann, Eric A. de Kemp, Boyan Brodaric, Ernst Schetselaar, and Karine Bédard
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6987–7012, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6987-2023, 2023
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Neural networks can be used effectively to model three-dimensional geological structures from point data, sampling geological interfaces, units, and structural orientations. Existing neural network approaches for this type of modelling are advanced by the efficient incorporation of unconformities, new knowledge inputs, and improved data fitting techniques. These advances permit the modelling of more complex geology in diverse geological settings, different-sized areas, and various data regimes.
Ane Lopez de Gamiz-Zearra, Cecilie Hansen, Xavier Corrales, Iñaki Quincoces, Izaskun Preciado, and Eider Andonegi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1368, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1368, 2023
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This paper describes the development of the first calibrated end-to-end Atlantis model for the Bay of Biscay that will help us improve the comprehension of the spatial functioning of the Bay of Biscay ecosystem and help establishing management measures of human activities. Our results highlighted the importance of lower trophic levels to the pelagic system and demonstrate the importance of having accurate and precise data for biological processes.
Tor Nordam, Ruben Kristiansen, Raymond Nepstad, Erik van Sebille, and Andy M. Booth
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5339–5363, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5339-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5339-2023, 2023
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We describe and compare two common methods, Eulerian and Lagrangian models, used to simulate the vertical transport of material in the ocean. They both solve the same transport problems but use different approaches for representing the underlying equations on the computer. The main focus of our study is on the numerical accuracy of the two approaches. Our results should be useful for other researchers creating or using these types of transport models.
Mathieu Gravey and Grégoire Mariethoz
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5265–5279, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5265-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5265-2023, 2023
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Multiple‐point geostatistics are widely used to simulate complex spatial structures based on a training image. The use of these methods relies on the possibility of finding optimal training images and parametrization of the simulation algorithms. Here, we propose finding an optimal set of parameters using only the training image as input. The main advantage of our approach is to remove the risk of overfitting an objective function.
Siting Li, Ping Wang, Hong Wang, Yue Peng, Zhaodong Liu, Wenjie Zhang, Hongli Liu, Yaqiang Wang, Huizheng Che, and Xiaoye Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4171–4191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4171-2023, 2023
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Optimizing the initial state of atmospheric chemistry model input is one of the most essential methods to improve forecast accuracy. Considering the large computational load of the model, we introduce an ensemble optimal interpolation scheme (EnOI) for operational use and efficient updating of the initial fields of chemical components. The results suggest that EnOI provides a practical and cost-effective technique for improving the accuracy of chemical weather numerical forecasts.
Thomas Richter, Véronique Dansereau, Christian Lessig, and Piotr Minakowski
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3907–3926, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3907-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3907-2023, 2023
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Sea ice covers not only the pole regions but affects the weather and climate globally. For example, its white surface reflects more sunlight than land. The oceans around the poles are therefore kept cool, which affects the circulation in the oceans worldwide. Simulating the behavior and changes in sea ice on a computer is, however, very difficult. We propose a new computer simulation that better models how cracks in the ice change over time and show this by comparing to other simulations.
Emma J. MacKie, Michael Field, Lijing Wang, Zhen Yin, Nathan Schoedl, Matthew Hibbs, and Allan Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3765–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3765-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3765-2023, 2023
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Earth scientists often have to fill in spatial gaps in measurements. This gap-filling or interpolation can be accomplished with geostatistical methods, where the statistical relationships between measurements are used to inform how these gaps should be filled. Despite the broad utility of these methods, there are few freely available geostatistical software applications. We present GStatSim, a Python package for performing different geostatistical interpolation methods.
Ian Madden, Simone Marras, and Jenny Suckale
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3479–3500, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3479-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3479-2023, 2023
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To aid risk managers who may wish to rapidly assess tsunami risk but may lack high-performance computing infrastructure, we provide an accessible software package able to rapidly model tsunami inundation over real topography by leveraging Google's Tensor Processing Unit, a high-performance hardware. Minimally trained users can take advantage of the rapid modeling abilities provided by this package via a web browser thanks to the ease of use of Google Cloud Platform.
Youtong Rong, Paul Bates, and Jeffrey Neal
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3291–3311, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3291-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3291-2023, 2023
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A novel subgrid channel (SGC) model is developed for river–floodplain modelling, allowing utilization of subgrid-scale bathymetric information while performing computations on relatively coarse grids. By including adaptive artificial diffusion, potential numerical instability, which the original SGC solver had, in low-friction regions such as urban areas is addressed. Evaluation of the new SGC model through structured tests confirmed that the accuracy and stability have improved.
Xiaqiong Zhou and Hann-Ming Henry Juang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3263–3274, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3263-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3263-2023, 2023
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The National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System version 16 experienced model instability failures in real-time runs resolved by increasing the minimum thickness depth parameter. Further investigation revealed that the issue was caused by the advection of geopotential heights at the model's layer interfaces. By replacing high-order boundary conditions with zero-gradient boundary conditions for interface-wind reconstruction, the instability was effectively addressed.
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Short summary
A model's ability to reproduce the state of a simulated object is always a subject of discussion. A new method for the multivariate assessment of numerical model skills uses the K-means algorithm for clustering model errors. All available data that fall into the model domain and simulation period are incorporated into the skill assessment. The clustered errors are used for spatial and temporal analysis of the model accuracy. The method can be applied to different types of geoscientific models.
A model's ability to reproduce the state of a simulated object is always a subject of...
