Articles | Volume 14, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2603-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2603-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Methods for assessment of models
| 
12 May 2021
Methods for assessment of models |
| 12 May 2021
| 12 May 2021
Cutting out the middleman: calibrating and validating a dynamic vegetation model (ED2-PROSPECT5) using remotely sensed surface reflectance
Alexey N. Shiklomanov
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Michael C. Dietze
Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
Istem Fer
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Toni Viskari
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Shawn P. Serbin
Environmental and Climate Sciences Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, USA
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Kalyn Dorheim, Skylar Gering, Robert Gieseke, Corinne Hartin, Leeya Pressburger, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Steven J. Smith, Claudia Tebaldi, Dawn L. Woodard, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4855–4869, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024, 2024
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Hector is an easy-to-use, global climate–carbon cycle model. With its quick run time, Hector can provide climate information from a run in a fraction of a second. Hector models on a global and annual basis. Here, we present an updated version of the model, Hector V3. In this paper, we document Hector’s new features. Hector V3 is capable of reproducing historical observations, and its future temperature projections are consistent with those of more complex models.
Dawn L. Woodard, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Ben Kravitz, Corinne Hartin, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4751–4767, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021, 2021
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We have added a representation of the permafrost carbon feedback to the simple, open-source global carbon–climate model Hector and calibrated the results to be consistent with historical data and Earth system model projections. Our results closely match previous work, estimating around 0.2 °C of warming from permafrost this century. This capability will be useful to explore uncertainties in this feedback and for coupling with integrated assessment models for policy and economic analysis.
Jeff W. Atkins, Elizabeth Agee, Alexandra Barry, Kyla M. Dahlin, Kalyn Dorheim, Maxim S. Grigri, Lisa T. Haber, Laura J. Hickey, Aaron G. Kamoske, Kayla Mathes, Catherine McGuigan, Evan Paris, Stephanie C. Pennington, Carly Rodriguez, Autym Shafer, Alexey Shiklomanov, Jason Tallant, Christopher M. Gough, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 943–952, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-943-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-943-2021, 2021
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The fortedata R package is an open data notebook from the Forest Resilience Threshold Experiment (FoRTE) – a modeling and manipulative field experiment that tests the effects of disturbance severity and disturbance type on carbon cycling dynamics in a temperate forest. The data included help to interpret how carbon cycling processes respond over time to disturbance.
Claudia Guidi, Sia Gosheva-Oney, Markus Didion, Roman Flury, Lorenz Walthert, Stephan Zimmermann, Brian J. Oney, Pascal A. Niklaus, Esther Thürig, Toni Viskari, Jari Liski, and Frank Hagedorn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3788, 2024
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Predicting soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in forests is crucial for assessing C balance, yet drivers of SOC stocks remain uncertain at large scales. Across a broad environmental gradient in Switzerland, we compared measured SOC stocks with those modelled by Yasso20, commonly used for GHG budgets. Our results show that soil mineral properties and climate are main controls of SOC stocks, indicating that better accounting of these processes will advance accuracy of SOC stock predictions.
Kalyn Dorheim, Skylar Gering, Robert Gieseke, Corinne Hartin, Leeya Pressburger, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Steven J. Smith, Claudia Tebaldi, Dawn L. Woodard, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4855–4869, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hector is an easy-to-use, global climate–carbon cycle model. With its quick run time, Hector can provide climate information from a run in a fraction of a second. Hector models on a global and annual basis. Here, we present an updated version of the model, Hector V3. In this paper, we document Hector’s new features. Hector V3 is capable of reproducing historical observations, and its future temperature projections are consistent with those of more complex models.
Jarmo Mäkelä, Laura Arppe, Hannu Fritze, Jussi Heinonsalo, Kristiina Karhu, Jari Liski, Markku Oinonen, Petra Straková, and Toni Viskari
Biogeosciences, 19, 4305–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4305-2022, 2022
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Soils account for the largest share of carbon found in terrestrial ecosystems, and accurate depiction of soil carbon decomposition is essential in understanding how permanent these carbon storages are. We present a straightforward way to include carbon isotope concentrations into soil decomposition and carbon storages for the Yasso model, which enables the model to use 13C as a natural tracer to track changes in the underlying soil organic matter decomposition.
Qianyu Li, Shawn P. Serbin, Julien Lamour, Kenneth J. Davidson, Kim S. Ely, and Alistair Rogers
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4313–4329, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4313-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4313-2022, 2022
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Stomatal conductance is the rate of water release from leaves’ pores. We implemented an optimal stomatal conductance model in a vegetation model. We then tested and compared it with the existing empirical model in terms of model responses to key environmental variables. We also evaluated the model with measurements at a tropical forest site. Our study suggests that the parameterization of conductance models and current model response to drought are the critical areas for improving models.
Hamze Dokoohaki, Bailey D. Morrison, Ann Raiho, Shawn P. Serbin, Katie Zarada, Luke Dramko, and Michael Dietze
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3233–3252, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3233-2022, 2022
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We present a new terrestrial carbon cycle data assimilation system, built on the PEcAn model–data eco-informatics system, and its application for the development of a proof-of-concept carbon
reanalysisproduct that harmonizes carbon pools (leaf, wood, soil) and fluxes (GPP, Ra, Rh, NEE) across the contiguous United States from 1986–2019. Here, we build on a decade of work on uncertainty propagation to generate the most complete and robust uncertainty accounting available to date.
Weilin Huang, Peter M. van Bodegom, Toni Viskari, Jari Liski, and Nadejda A. Soudzilovskaia
Biogeosciences, 19, 1469–1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1469-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1469-2022, 2022
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This work focuses on one of the essential pathways of mycorrhizal impact on C cycles: the mediation of plant litter decomposition. We present a model based on litter chemical quality which precludes a conclusive examination of mycorrhizal impacts on soil C. It improves long-term decomposition predictions and advances our understanding of litter decomposition dynamics. It creates a benchmark in quantitatively examining the impacts of plant–microbe interactions on soil C dynamics.
Toni Viskari, Janne Pusa, Istem Fer, Anna Repo, Julius Vira, and Jari Liski
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1735–1752, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1735-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1735-2022, 2022
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We wanted to examine how the chosen measurement data and calibration process affect soil organic carbon model calibration. In our results we found that there is a benefit in using data from multiple litter-bag decomposition experiments simultaneously, even with the required assumptions. Additionally, due to the amount of noise and uncertainties in the system, more advanced calibration methods should be used to parameterize the models.
Olli Nevalainen, Olli Niemitalo, Istem Fer, Antti Juntunen, Tuomas Mattila, Olli Koskela, Joni Kukkamäki, Layla Höckerstedt, Laura Mäkelä, Pieta Jarva, Laura Heimsch, Henriikka Vekuri, Liisa Kulmala, Åsa Stam, Otto Kuusela, Stephanie Gerin, Toni Viskari, Julius Vira, Jari Hyväluoma, Juha-Pekka Tuovinen, Annalea Lohila, Tuomas Laurila, Jussi Heinonsalo, Tuula Aalto, Iivari Kunttu, and Jari Liski
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 11, 93–109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-11-93-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-11-93-2022, 2022
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Better monitoring of soil carbon sequestration is needed to understand the best carbon farming practices in different soils and climate conditions. We, the Field Observatory Network (FiON), have therefore established a methodology for monitoring and forecasting agricultural carbon sequestration by combining offline and near-real-time field measurements, weather data, satellite imagery, and modeling. To disseminate our work, we built a website called the Field Observatory (fieldobservatory.org).
Dawn L. Woodard, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Ben Kravitz, Corinne Hartin, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4751–4767, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021, 2021
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We have added a representation of the permafrost carbon feedback to the simple, open-source global carbon–climate model Hector and calibrated the results to be consistent with historical data and Earth system model projections. Our results closely match previous work, estimating around 0.2 °C of warming from permafrost this century. This capability will be useful to explore uncertainties in this feedback and for coupling with integrated assessment models for policy and economic analysis.
Kathryn I. Wheeler and Michael C. Dietze
Biogeosciences, 18, 1971–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1971-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1971-2021, 2021
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Monitoring leaf phenology (i.e., seasonality) allows for tracking the progression of climate change and seasonal variations in a variety of organismal and ecosystem processes. Recent versions of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites allow for the monitoring of a phenological-sensitive index at a high temporal frequency (5–10 min) throughout most of the western hemisphere. Here we show the high potential of these new data to measure the phenology of deciduous forests.
Jeff W. Atkins, Elizabeth Agee, Alexandra Barry, Kyla M. Dahlin, Kalyn Dorheim, Maxim S. Grigri, Lisa T. Haber, Laura J. Hickey, Aaron G. Kamoske, Kayla Mathes, Catherine McGuigan, Evan Paris, Stephanie C. Pennington, Carly Rodriguez, Autym Shafer, Alexey Shiklomanov, Jason Tallant, Christopher M. Gough, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 943–952, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-943-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-943-2021, 2021
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The fortedata R package is an open data notebook from the Forest Resilience Threshold Experiment (FoRTE) – a modeling and manipulative field experiment that tests the effects of disturbance severity and disturbance type on carbon cycling dynamics in a temperate forest. The data included help to interpret how carbon cycling processes respond over time to disturbance.
Toni Viskari, Maisa Laine, Liisa Kulmala, Jarmo Mäkelä, Istem Fer, and Jari Liski
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5959–5971, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5959-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5959-2020, 2020
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The research here established whether a Bayesian statistical method called state data assimilation could be used to improve soil organic carbon (SOC) forecasts. Our test case was a fallow experiment where SOC content was measured over several decades from a plot where all vegetation was removed. Our results showed that state data assimilation improved projections and allowed for the detailed model state be updated with coarse total carbon measurements.
Charles D. Koven, Ryan G. Knox, Rosie A. Fisher, Jeffrey Q. Chambers, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Stuart J. Davies, Matteo Detto, Michael C. Dietze, Boris Faybishenko, Jennifer Holm, Maoyi Huang, Marlies Kovenock, Lara M. Kueppers, Gregory Lemieux, Elias Massoud, Nathan G. McDowell, Helene C. Muller-Landau, Jessica F. Needham, Richard J. Norby, Thomas Powell, Alistair Rogers, Shawn P. Serbin, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Charuleka Varadharajan, Anthony P. Walker, S. Joseph Wright, and Chonggang Xu
Biogeosciences, 17, 3017–3044, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3017-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3017-2020, 2020
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Tropical forests play a crucial role in governing climate feedbacks, and are incredibly diverse ecosystems, yet most Earth system models do not take into account the diversity of plant traits in these forests and how this diversity may govern feedbacks. We present an approach to represent diverse competing plant types within Earth system models, test this approach at a tropical forest site, and explore how the representation of disturbance and competition governs traits of the forest community.
Christopher P. O. Reyer, Ramiro Silveyra Gonzalez, Klara Dolos, Florian Hartig, Ylva Hauf, Matthias Noack, Petra Lasch-Born, Thomas Rötzer, Hans Pretzsch, Henning Meesenburg, Stefan Fleck, Markus Wagner, Andreas Bolte, Tanja G. M. Sanders, Pasi Kolari, Annikki Mäkelä, Timo Vesala, Ivan Mammarella, Jukka Pumpanen, Alessio Collalti, Carlo Trotta, Giorgio Matteucci, Ettore D'Andrea, Lenka Foltýnová, Jan Krejza, Andreas Ibrom, Kim Pilegaard, Denis Loustau, Jean-Marc Bonnefond, Paul Berbigier, Delphine Picart, Sébastien Lafont, Michael Dietze, David Cameron, Massimo Vieno, Hanqin Tian, Alicia Palacios-Orueta, Victor Cicuendez, Laura Recuero, Klaus Wiese, Matthias Büchner, Stefan Lange, Jan Volkholz, Hyungjun Kim, Joanna A. Horemans, Friedrich Bohn, Jörg Steinkamp, Alexander Chikalanov, Graham P. Weedon, Justin Sheffield, Flurin Babst, Iliusi Vega del Valle, Felicitas Suckow, Simon Martel, Mats Mahnken, Martin Gutsch, and Katja Frieler
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1295–1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1295-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1295-2020, 2020
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Process-based vegetation models are widely used to predict local and global ecosystem dynamics and climate change impacts. Due to their complexity, they require careful parameterization and evaluation to ensure that projections are accurate and reliable. The PROFOUND Database provides a wide range of empirical data to calibrate and evaluate vegetation models that simulate climate impacts at the forest stand scale to support systematic model intercomparisons and model development in Europe.
Marcos Longo, Ryan G. Knox, David M. Medvigy, Naomi M. Levine, Michael C. Dietze, Yeonjoo Kim, Abigail L. S. Swann, Ke Zhang, Christine R. Rollinson, Rafael L. Bras, Steven C. Wofsy, and Paul R. Moorcroft
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4309–4346, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4309-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4309-2019, 2019
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Our paper describes the Ecosystem Demography model. This computer program calculates how plants and ground exchange heat, water, and carbon with the air, and how plants grow, reproduce and die in different climates. Most models simplify forests to an average big tree. We consider that tall, deep-rooted trees get more light and water than small plants, and that some plants can with shade and drought. This diversity helps us to better explain how plants live and interact with the atmosphere.
Marcos Longo, Ryan G. Knox, Naomi M. Levine, Abigail L. S. Swann, David M. Medvigy, Michael C. Dietze, Yeonjoo Kim, Ke Zhang, Damien Bonal, Benoit Burban, Plínio B. Camargo, Matthew N. Hayek, Scott R. Saleska, Rodrigo da Silva, Rafael L. Bras, Steven C. Wofsy, and Paul R. Moorcroft
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4347–4374, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4347-2019, 2019
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The Ecosystem Demography model calculates the fluxes of heat, water, and carbon between plants and ground and the air, and the life cycle of plants in different climates. To test if our calculations were reasonable, we compared our results with field and satellite measurements. Our model predicts well the extent of the Amazon forest, how much light forests absorb, and how much water forests release to the air. However, it must improve the tree growth rates and how fast dead plants decompose.
Jarmo Mäkelä, Jürgen Knauer, Mika Aurela, Andrew Black, Martin Heimann, Hideki Kobayashi, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Hank Margolis, Tiina Markkanen, Jouni Susiluoto, Tea Thum, Toni Viskari, Sönke Zaehle, and Tuula Aalto
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4075–4098, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4075-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4075-2019, 2019
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We assess the differences of six stomatal conductance formulations, embedded into a land–vegetation model JSBACH, on 10 boreal coniferous evergreen forest sites. We calibrate the model parameters using all six functions in a multi-year experiment, as well as for a separate drought event at one of the sites, using the adaptive population importance sampler. The analysis reveals weaknesses in the stomatal conductance formulation-dependent model behaviour that we are able to partially amend.
Istem Fer, Ryan Kelly, Paul R. Moorcroft, Andrew D. Richardson, Elizabeth M. Cowdery, and Michael C. Dietze
Biogeosciences, 15, 5801–5830, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5801-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5801-2018, 2018
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The computer models we use to understand and forecast the ecosystem changes have multiple components that determine their outcomes. Due to our limited observation capacities, these components bear uncertainties that in return affect our predictions. While there are techniques for reducing these uncertainties, they are not applicable to every model due to computational and statistical barriers. This research presents a method that lowers those barriers and allows us to improve model predictions.
Anthony P. Walker, Ming Ye, Dan Lu, Martin G. De Kauwe, Lianhong Gu, Belinda E. Medlyn, Alistair Rogers, and Shawn P. Serbin
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3159–3185, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3159-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3159-2018, 2018
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Large uncertainty is inherent in model predictions due to imperfect knowledge of how to describe the processes that a model is intended to represent. Yet methods to quantify and evaluate this model hypothesis uncertainty are limited. To address this, the multi-assumption architecture and testbed (MAAT) automates the generation of all possible models by combining multiple representations of multiple processes. MAAT provides a formal framework for quantification of model hypothesis uncertainty.
Jennifer R. Marlon, Neil Pederson, Connor Nolan, Simon Goring, Bryan Shuman, Ann Robertson, Robert Booth, Patrick J. Bartlein, Melissa A. Berke, Michael Clifford, Edward Cook, Ann Dieffenbacher-Krall, Michael C. Dietze, Amy Hessl, J. Bradford Hubeny, Stephen T. Jackson, Jeremiah Marsicek, Jason McLachlan, Cary J. Mock, David J. P. Moore, Jonathan Nichols, Dorothy Peteet, Kevin Schaefer, Valerie Trouet, Charles Umbanhowar, John W. Williams, and Zicheng Yu
Clim. Past, 13, 1355–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, 2017
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To improve our understanding of paleoclimate in the northeastern (NE) US, we compiled data from pollen, tree rings, lake levels, testate amoeba from bogs, and other proxies from the last 3000 years. The paleoclimate synthesis supports long-term cooling until the 1800s and reveals an abrupt transition from wet to dry conditions around 550–750 CE. Evidence suggests the region is now becoming warmer and wetter, but more calibrated data are needed, especially to capture multidecadal variability.
Keith F. Lewin, Andrew M. McMahon, Kim S. Ely, Shawn P. Serbin, and Alistair Rogers
Biogeosciences, 14, 4071–4083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4071-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4071-2017, 2017
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Experiments that manipulate the temperature of plants and ecosystems are used to improve understanding of how they will respond to climate change. In logistically challenging locations passive warming using solar energy is the the only viable option for warming experiments. Unfortunately current passive warming approaches can only raise air temperature by about 1.5 °C. We have developed a novel approach that doubles the warming possible using solar energy and requires no power.
P. C. Stoy, M. C. Dietze, A. D. Richardson, R. Vargas, A. G. Barr, R. S. Anderson, M. A. Arain, I. T. Baker, T. A. Black, J. M. Chen, R. B. Cook, C. M. Gough, R. F. Grant, D. Y. Hollinger, R. C. Izaurralde, C. J. Kucharik, P. Lafleur, B. E. Law, S. Liu, E. Lokupitiya, Y. Luo, J. W. Munger, C. Peng, B. Poulter, D. T. Price, D. M. Ricciuto, W. J. Riley, A. K. Sahoo, K. Schaefer, C. R. Schwalm, H. Tian, H. Verbeeck, and E. Weng
Biogeosciences, 10, 6893–6909, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6893-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6893-2013, 2013
T. Viskari, E. Asmi, P. Kolmonen, H. Vuollekoski, T. Petäjä, and H. Järvinen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 11767–11779, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-11767-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-11767-2012, 2012
T. Viskari, E. Asmi, A. Virkkula, P. Kolmonen, T. Petäjä, and H. Järvinen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 11781–11793, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-11781-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-11781-2012, 2012
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Jianyong Ma, Almut Arneth, Benjamin Smith, Peter Anthoni, Xu-Ri, Peter Eliasson, David Wårlind, Martin Wittenbrink, and Stefan Olin
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Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a powerful greenhouse gas mainly released from natural and agricultural soils. This study examines how global soil N2O emissions changed from 1961 to 2020 and identifies key factors driving these changes using an ecological model. The findings highlight croplands as the largest source, with factors like fertilizer use and climate change enhancing emissions. Rising CO2 levels, however, can partially mitigate N2O emissions through increased plant nitrogen uptake.
Hoa Nguyen, Ute Daewel, Neil Banas, and Corinna Schrum
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2961–2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2961-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2961-2025, 2025
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Parameterization is key in modeling to reproduce observations well but is often done manually. This study presents a particle-swarm-optimizer-based toolbox for marine ecosystem models, compatible with the Framework for Aquatic Biogeochemical Models, thus enhancing its reusability. Applied to the Sylt ecosystem, the toolbox effectively (1) identified multiple parameter sets that matched observations well, providing different insights into ecosystem dynamics, and (2) optimized model complexity.
Zavud Baghirov, Martin Jung, Markus Reichstein, Marco Körner, and Basil Kraft
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2921–2943, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2921-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2921-2025, 2025
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We use an innovative approach to studying the Earth's water cycle by integrating advanced machine learning techniques with a traditional water cycle model. Our model is designed to learn from observational data, with a particular emphasis on understanding the influence of vegetation on water movement. By closely aligning with real-world observations, our model offers new possibilities for enhancing our understanding of the water cycle and its interactions with vegetation.
Naveenkumar Parameswaran, Everardo González, Ewa Burwicz-Galerne, Malte Braack, and Klaus Wallmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2521–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2521-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2521-2025, 2025
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Our research uses deep learning to predict organic carbon stocks in ocean sediments, which is crucial for understanding their role in the global carbon cycle. By analysing over 22 000 samples and various seafloor characteristics, our model gives more accurate results than traditional methods. We estimate that the top 10 cm of ocean sediments hold about 156 Pg of carbon. This work enhances carbon stock estimates and helps plan future sampling strategies to better understand oceanic carbon burial.
Zhengyang Lin, Ling Huang, Hanqin Tian, Anping Chen, and Xuhui Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2509–2520, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2509-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2509-2025, 2025
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The China Wildfire Emission Dataset (ChinaWED v1) estimated wildfire emissions in China during 2012–2022 as 78.13 Tg CO2, 279.47 Gg CH4, and 6.26 Gg N2O annually. Agricultural fires dominated emissions, while forest and grassland emissions decreased. Seasonal peaks occurred in late spring, with hotspots in northeast, southwest, and east China. The model emphasizes the importance of using localized emission factors and high-resolution fire estimates for accurate assessments.
Tatsuya Miyauchi, Makoto Saito, Hibiki M. Noda, Akihiko Ito, Tomomichi Kato, and Tsuneo Matsunaga
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2329–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2329-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2329-2025, 2025
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Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is an effective indicator for monitoring photosynthetic activity. This paper introduces VISIT-SIF, a biogeochemical model developed based on the Vegetation Integrative Simulator for Trace gases (VISIT) to represent satellite-observed SIF. Our simulations reproduced the global distribution and seasonal variations in observed SIF. VISIT-SIF helps to improve photosynthetic processes through a combination of biogeochemical modeling and observed SIF.
Mateus Dantas de Paula, Matthew Forrest, David Warlind, João Paulo Darela Filho, Katrin Fleischer, Anja Rammig, and Thomas Hickler
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2249–2274, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2249-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2249-2025, 2025
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Our study maps global nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) availability and how they changed from 1901 to 2018. We find that tropical regions are mostly P-limited, while temperate and boreal areas face N limitations. Over time, P limitation increased, especially in the tropics, while N limitation decreased. These shifts are key to understanding global plant growth and carbon storage, highlighting the importance of including P dynamics in ecosystem models.
Wolfgang Knorr, Matthew Williams, Tea Thum, Thomas Kaminski, Michael Voßbeck, Marko Scholze, Tristan Quaife, T. Luke Smallman, Susan C. Steele-Dunne, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Tim Green, Sönke Zaehle, Mika Aurela, Alexandre Bouvet, Emanuel Bueechi, Wouter Dorigo, Tarek S. El-Madany, Mirco Migliavacca, Marika Honkanen, Yann H. Kerr, Anna Kontu, Juha Lemmetyinen, Hannakaisa Lindqvist, Arnaud Mialon, Tuuli Miinalainen, Gaétan Pique, Amanda Ojasalo, Shaun Quegan, Peter J. Rayner, Pablo Reyes-Muñoz, Nemesio Rodríguez-Fernández, Mike Schwank, Jochem Verrelst, Songyan Zhu, Dirk Schüttemeyer, and Matthias Drusch
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2137–2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2137-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2137-2025, 2025
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When it comes to climate change, the land surface is where the vast majority of impacts happen. The task of monitoring those impacts across the globe is formidable and must necessarily rely on satellites – at a significant cost: the measurements are only indirect and require comprehensive physical understanding. We have created a comprehensive modelling system that we offer to the research community to explore how satellite data can be better exploited to help us capture the changes that happen on our lands.
Luke Oberhagemann, Maik Billing, Werner von Bloh, Markus Drüke, Matthew Forrest, Simon P. K. Bowring, Jessica Hetzer, Jaime Ribalaygua Batalla, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2021–2050, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2021-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2021-2025, 2025
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Under climate change, the conditions necessary for wildfires to form are occurring more frequently in many parts of the world. To help predict how wildfires will change in future, global fire models are being developed. We analyze and further develop one such model, SPITFIRE. Our work identifies and corrects sources of substantial bias in the model that are important to the global fire modelling field. With this analysis and these developments, we help to provide a basis for future improvements.
Trine Frisbæk Hansen, Donald Eugene Canfield, Ken Haste Andersen, and Christian Jannik Bjerrum
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1895–1916, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1895-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1895-2025, 2025
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We describe and test the size-based Nutrient-Unicellular-Multicellular model, which defines unicellular plankton using a single set of parameters, on a eutrophic and oligotrophic ecosystem. The results demonstrate that both sites can be modeled with similar parameters and robust performance over a wide range of parameters. The study shows that the model is useful for non-experts and applicable for modeling ecosystems with limited data. It holds promise for evolutionary and deep-time climate models.
Ying Ye, Guy Munhoven, Peter Köhler, Martin Butzin, Judith Hauck, Özgür Gürses, and Christoph Völker
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 977–1000, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-977-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-977-2025, 2025
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Many biogeochemistry models assume all material reaching the seafloor is remineralized and returned to solution, which is sufficient for studies on short-term climate change. Under long-term climate change, the carbon storage in sediments slows down carbon cycling and influences feedbacks in the atmosphere–ocean–sediment system. This paper describes the coupling of a sediment model to an ocean biogeochemistry model and presents results under the pre-industrial climate and under CO2 perturbation.
Juliette Bernard, Elodie Salmon, Marielle Saunois, Shushi Peng, Penélope Serrano-Ortiz, Antoine Berchet, Palingamoorthy Gnanamoorthy, Joachim Jansen, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 863–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-863-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-863-2025, 2025
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Despite their importance, uncertainties remain in the evaluation of the drivers of temporal variability of methane emissions from wetlands on a global scale. Here, a simplified global model is developed, taking advantage of advances in remote-sensing data and in situ observations. The model reproduces the large spatial and temporal patterns of emissions, albeit with limitations in the tropics due to data scarcity. This model, while simple, can provide valuable insights into sensitivity analyses.
Carolina Natel, David Martin Belda, Peter Anthoni, Neele Haß, Sam Rabin, and Almut Arneth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4064, 2025
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Complex models predict forest carbon responses to future climate change but are slow and computationally intensive, limiting large-scale analyses. We used machine learning to accelerate predictions from the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model. Our emulators, based on random forests and neural networks, achieved 97 % faster simulations. This approach enables rapid exploration of climate mitigation strategies and supports informed policy decisions.
Christian Poppe Terán, Bibi S. Naz, Harry Vereecken, Roland Baatz, Rosie A. Fisher, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 287–317, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-287-2025, 2025
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Carbon and water exchanges between the atmosphere and the land surface contribute to water resource availability and climate change mitigation. Land surface models, like the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5), simulate these. This study finds that CLM5 and other data sets underestimate the magnitudes of and variability in carbon and water exchanges for the most abundant plant functional types compared to observations. It provides essential insights for further research into these processes.
Theo Glauch, Julia Marshall, Christoph Gerbig, Santiago Botía, Michał Gałkowski, Sanam N. Vardag, and André Butz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3692, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3692, 2025
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The Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) estimates carbon exchange between the atmosphere and biosphere by modeling gross primary production and respiration using satellite data and weather variables. Our new version, pyVPRM, supports diverse satellite products like Sentinel-2, MODIS, VIIRS and new land cover maps, enabling high spatial and temporal resolution. This improves flux estimates, especially in complex landscapes, and ensures continuity as MODIS nears decommissioning.
Katherine A. Muller, Peishi Jiang, Glenn Hammond, Tasneem Ahmadullah, Hyun-Seob Song, Ravi Kukkadapu, Nicholas Ward, Madison Bowe, Rosalie K. Chu, Qian Zhao, Vanessa A. Garayburu-Caruso, Alan Roebuck, and Xingyuan Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8955–8968, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8955-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8955-2024, 2024
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The new Lambda-PFLOTRAN workflow incorporates organic matter chemistry into reaction networks to simulate aerobic respiration and biogeochemistry. Lambda-PFLOTRAN is a Python-based workflow in a Jupyter notebook interface that digests raw organic matter chemistry data via Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry, develops a representative reaction network, and completes a biogeochemical simulation with the open-source, parallel-reactive-flow, and transport code PFLOTRAN.
Ling Li, Peipei Wu, Peng Zhang, Shaojian Huang, and Yanxu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8683–8695, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8683-2024, 2024
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In this study, we incorporate sea surfactants and wave-breaking processes into MITgcm-ECCOv4-Hg. The updated model shows increased fluxes in high-wind-speed and high-wave regions and vice versa, enhancing spatial heterogeneity. It shows that elemental mercury (Hg0) transfer velocity is more sensitive to wind speed. These findings may elucidate the discrepancies in previous estimations and offer insights into global Hg cycling.
Jerome Guiet, Daniele Bianchi, Kim J. N. Scherrer, Ryan F. Heneghan, and Eric D. Galbraith
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8421–8454, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8421-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8421-2024, 2024
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The BiOeconomic mArine Trophic Size-spectrum (BOATSv2) model dynamically simulates global commercial fish populations and their coupling with fishing activity, as emerging from environmental and economic drivers. New features, including separate pelagic and demersal populations, iron limitation, and spatial variation of fishing costs and management, improve the accuracy of high seas fisheries. The updated model code is available to simulate both historical and future scenarios.
Jize Jiang, David S. Stevenson, and Mark A. Sutton
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8181–8222, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8181-2024, 2024
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A special model called AMmonia–CLIMate (AMCLIM) has been developed to understand and calculate NH3 emissions from fertilizer use and also taking into account how the environment influences these NH3 emissions. It is estimated that about 17 % of applied N in fertilizers was lost due to NH3 emissions. Hot and dry conditions and regions with high-pH soils can expect higher NH3 emissions.
Benjamin Franklin Meyer, João Paulo Darela-Filho, Konstantin Gregor, Allan Buras, Qiao-Lin Gu, Andreas Krause, Daijun Liu, Phillip Papastefanou, Sijeh Asuk, Thorsten E. E. Grams, Christian S. Zang, and Anja Rammig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3352, 2024
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Climate change has increased the likelihood of drought events across Europe, potentially threatening European forest carbon sink. Dynamic vegetation models with mechanistic plant hydraulic architecture are needed to model these developments. We evaluate the plant hydraulic architecture version of LPJ-GUESS and show it's capability at capturing species-specific evapotranspiration responses to drought and reproducing flux observations of both gross primary production and evapotranspiration.
Guillaume Marie, Jina Jeong, Hervé Jactel, Gunnar Petter, Maxime Cailleret, Matthew J. McGrath, Vladislav Bastrikov, Josefine Ghattas, Bertrand Guenet, Anne Sofie Lansø, Kim Naudts, Aude Valade, Chao Yue, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8023–8047, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8023-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8023-2024, 2024
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This research looks at how climate change influences forests, and particularly how altered wind and insect activities could make forests emit instead of absorb carbon. We have updated a land surface model called ORCHIDEE to better examine the effect of bark beetles on forest health. Our findings suggest that sudden events, such as insect outbreaks, can dramatically affect carbon storage, offering crucial insights into tackling climate change.
Stephen Björn Wirth, Johanna Braun, Jens Heinke, Sebastian Ostberg, Susanne Rolinski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Fabian Stenzel, Werner von Bloh, Friedhelm Taube, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7889–7914, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7889-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7889-2024, 2024
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We present a new approach to modelling biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) in the Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land dynamic global vegetation model. While in the original approach BNF depended on actual evapotranspiration, the new approach considers soil water content and temperature, vertical root distribution, the nitrogen (N) deficit and carbon (C) costs. The new approach improved simulated BNF compared to the scientific literature and the model ability to project future C and N cycle dynamics.
Saeed Harati-Asl, Liliana Perez, and Roberto Molowny-Horas
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7423–7443, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7423-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7423-2024, 2024
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Social–ecological systems are the subject of many sustainability problems. Because of the complexity of these systems, we must be careful when intervening in them; otherwise we may cause irreversible damage. Using computer models, we can gain insight about these complex systems without harming them. In this paper we describe how we connected an ecological model of forest insect infestation with a social model of cooperation and simulated an intervention measure to save a forest from infestation.
Daehyuk Kim, Hyun-Chae Jung, Jae-Hong Moon, and Na-Hyeon Lee
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1509, 2024
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Physical–biogeochemical ocean global models is difficult to analyze oceanic environmental systems. To accurately understand the physical–biogeochemical processes at the regional scale, physical and biogeochemical models were coupled at a high resolution. The results successfully simulated the seasonal variations of chlorophyll and nutrients, particularly in the marginal seas, which were not captured by global models. The model is an important tool for studying physical–biogeochemical processes.
Isabelle Maréchaux, Fabian Jörg Fischer, Sylvain Schmitt, and Jérôme Chave
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3104, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3104, 2024
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We describe TROLL 4.0, a simulator of forest dynamics that represents trees in a virtual space at one-meter resolution. Tree birth, growth, death and the underlying physiological processes such as carbon assimilation, water transpiration and leaf phenology depend on plant traits that are measured in the field for many individuals and species. The model is thus capable of jointly simulating forest structure, diversity and ecosystem functioning, a major challenge in modelling vegetation dynamics.
Katarína Merganičová, Ján Merganič, Laura Dobor, Roland Hollós, Zoltán Barcza, Dóra Hidy, Zuzana Sitková, Pavel Pavlenda, Hrvoje Marjanovic, Daniel Kurjak, Michal Bošel'a, Doroteja Bitunjac, Maša Zorana Ostrogović Sever, Jiří Novák, Peter Fleischer, and Tomáš Hlásny
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7317–7346, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7317-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7317-2024, 2024
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We developed a multi-objective calibration approach leading to robust parameter values aiming to strike a balance between their local precision and broad applicability. Using the Biome-BGCMuSo model, we tested the calibrated parameter sets for simulating European beech forest dynamics across large environmental gradients. Leveraging data from 87 plots and five European countries, the results demonstrated reasonable local accuracy and plausible large-scale productivity responses.
Sylvain Schmitt, Fabian Fischer, James Ball, Nicolas Barbier, Marion Boisseaux, Damien Bonal, Benoit Burban, Xiuzhi Chen, Géraldine Derroire, Jeremy Lichstein, Daniela Nemetschek, Natalia Restrepo-Coupe, Scott Saleska, Giacomo Sellan, Philippe Verley, Grégoire Vincent, Camille Ziegler, Jérôme Chave, and Isabelle Maréchaux
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3106, 2024
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We evaluate the capability of TROLL 4.0, a simulator of forest dynamics, to represent tropical forest structure, diversity and functioning in two Amazonian forests. Evaluation data include forest inventories, carbon and water fluxes between the forest and the atmosphere, and leaf area and canopy height from remote-sensing products. The model realistically predicts the structure and composition, and the seasonality of carbon and water fluxes at both sites.
Elchin E. Jafarov, Helene Genet, Velimir V. Vesselinov, Valeria Briones, Aiza Kabeer, Andrew L. Mullen, Benjamin Maglio, Tobey Carman, Ruth Rutter, Joy Clein, Chu-Chun Chang, Dogukan Teber, Trevor Smith, Joshua M. Rady, Christina Schädel, Jennifer D. Watts, Brendan M. Rogers, and Susan M. Natali
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-158, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-158, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Thawing permafrost could greatly impact global climate. Our study improves modeling of carbon cycling in Arctic ecosystems. We developed an automated method to fine-tune a model that simulates carbon and nitrogen flows, using computer-generated data. Using computer-generated data, we tested our method and found it enhances accuracy and reduces the time needed for calibration. This work helps make climate predictions more reliable in sensitive permafrost regions.
Guohua Liu, Mirco Migliavacca, Christian Reimers, Basil Kraft, Markus Reichstein, Andrew D. Richardson, Lisa Wingate, Nicolas Delpierre, Hui Yang, and Alexander J. Winkler
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6683–6701, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6683-2024, 2024
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Our study employs long short-term memory (LSTM) networks to model canopy greenness and phenology, integrating meteorological memory effects. The LSTM model outperforms traditional methods, enhancing accuracy in predicting greenness dynamics and phenological transitions across plant functional types. Highlighting the importance of multi-variate meteorological memory effects, our research pioneers unlock the secrets of vegetation phenology responses to climate change with deep learning techniques.
Thi Lan Anh Dinh, Daniel Goll, Philippe Ciais, and Ronny Lauerwald
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6725–6744, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6725-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6725-2024, 2024
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The study assesses the performance of the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) ORCHIDEE in capturing the impact of land-use change on carbon stocks across Europe. Comparisons with observations reveal that the model accurately represents carbon fluxes and stocks. Despite the underestimations in certain land-use conversions, the model describes general trends in soil carbon response to land-use change, aligning with the site observations.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Lester Kwiatkowski, Manon Berger, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6513–6528, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024, 2024
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Coral reefs are crucial for biodiversity, but they also play a role in the carbon cycle on long time scales of a few thousand years. To better simulate the future and past evolution of coral reefs and their effect on the global carbon cycle, hence on atmospheric CO2 concentration, it is necessary to include coral reefs within a climate model. Here we describe the inclusion of coral reef carbonate production in a carbon–climate model and its validation in comparison to existing modern data.
Huajie Zhu, Mousong Wu, Fei Jiang, Michael Vossbeck, Thomas Kaminski, Xiuli Xing, Jun Wang, Weimin Ju, and Jing M. Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6337–6363, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6337-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6337-2024, 2024
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In this work, we developed the Nanjing University Carbon Assimilation System (NUCAS v1.0). Data assimilation experiments were conducted to demonstrate the robustness and investigate the feasibility and applicability of NUCAS. The assimilation of ecosystem carbonyl sulfide (COS) fluxes improved the model performance in gross primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and sensible heat, showing that COS provides constraints on parameters relevant to carbon-, water-, and energy-related processes.
Ye Liu, Huilin Huang, Sing-Chun Wang, Tao Zhang, Donghui Xu, and Yang Chen
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-151, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-151, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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This study integrates machine learning with a land surface model to improve wildfire predictions in North America. Traditional models struggle with accurately simulating burned areas due to simplified processes. By combining the predictive power of machine learning with a land model, our hybrid framework better captures fire dynamics. This approach enhances our understanding of wildfire behavior and aids in developing more effective climate and fire management strategies.
Sergi Molins, Benjamin Andre, Jeffrey Johnson, Glenn Hammond, Benjamin Sulman, Konstantin Lipnikov, Marcus Day, James Beisman, Daniil Svyatsky, Hang Deng, Peter Lichtner, Carl Steefel, and David Moulton
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-108, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-108, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Developing scientific software and making sure it functions properly requires a significant effort. As we advance our understanding of natural systems, however, there is the need to develop yet more complex models and codes. In this work, we present a piece of software that facilitates this work, specifically with regard to reactive processes. Existing tried-and-true codes are made available via this new interface, freeing up resources to focus on the new aspects of the problems at hand.
Fang Li, Zhimin Zhou, Samuel Levis, Stephen Sitch, Felicity Hayes, Zhaozhong Feng, Peter B. Reich, Zhiyi Zhao, and Yanqing Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6173–6193, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6173-2024, 2024
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A new scheme is developed to model the surface ozone damage to vegetation in regional and global process-based models. Based on 4210 data points from ozone experiments, it accurately reproduces statistically significant linear or nonlinear photosynthetic and stomatal responses to ozone in observations for all vegetation types. It also enables models to implicitly capture the variability in plant ozone tolerance and the shift among species within a vegetation type.
Alexander S. Brunmayr, Frank Hagedorn, Margaux Moreno Duborgel, Luisa I. Minich, and Heather D. Graven
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5961–5985, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5961-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5961-2024, 2024
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A new generation of soil models promises to more accurately predict the carbon cycle in soils under climate change. However, measurements of 14C (the radioactive carbon isotope) in soils reveal that the new soil models face similar problems to the traditional models: they underestimate the residence time of carbon in soils and may therefore overestimate the net uptake of CO2 by the land ecosystem. Proposed solutions include restructuring the models and calibrating model parameters with 14C data.
Nina Raoult, Simon Beylat, James M. Salter, Frédéric Hourdin, Vladislav Bastrikov, Catherine Ottlé, and Philippe Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5779–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5779-2024, 2024
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We use computer models to predict how the land surface will respond to climate change. However, these complex models do not always simulate what we observe in real life, limiting their effectiveness. To improve their accuracy, we use sophisticated statistical and computational techniques. We test a technique called history matching against more common approaches. This method adapts well to these models, helping us better understand how they work and therefore how to make them more realistic.
Jorn Bruggeman, Karsten Bolding, Lars Nerger, Anna Teruzzi, Simone Spada, Jozef Skákala, and Stefano Ciavatta
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5619–5639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5619-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5619-2024, 2024
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To understand and predict the ocean’s capacity for carbon sequestration, its ability to supply food, and its response to climate change, we need the best possible estimate of its physical and biogeochemical properties. This is obtained through data assimilation which blends numerical models and observations. We present the Ensemble and Assimilation Tool (EAT), a flexible and efficient test bed that allows any scientist to explore and further develop the state of the art in data assimilation.
Dongyu Zheng, Andrew S. Merdith, Yves Goddéris, Yannick Donnadieu, Khushboo Gurung, and Benjamin J. W. Mills
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5413–5429, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5413-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5413-2024, 2024
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This study uses a deep learning method to upscale the time resolution of paleoclimate simulations to 1 million years. This improved resolution allows a climate-biogeochemical model to more accurately predict climate shifts. The method may be critical in developing new fully continuous methods that are able to be applied over a moving continental surface in deep time with high resolution at reasonable computational expense.
Boris Ťupek, Aleksi Lehtonen, Alla Yurova, Rose Abramoff, Bertrand Guenet, Elisa Bruni, Samuli Launiainen, Mikko Peltoniemi, Shoji Hashimoto, Xianglin Tian, Juha Heikkinen, Kari Minkkinen, and Raisa Mäkipää
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5349–5367, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5349-2024, 2024
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Updating the Yasso07 soil C model's dependency on decomposition with a hump-shaped Ricker moisture function improved modelled soil organic C (SOC) stocks in a catena of mineral and organic soils in boreal forest. The Ricker function, set to peak at a rate of 1 and calibrated against SOC and CO2 data using a Bayesian approach, showed a maximum in well-drained soils. Using SOC and CO2 data together with the moisture only from the topsoil humus was crucial for accurate model estimates.
Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Rosie A. Fisher, Charles Koven, Ryan Knox, Lara Kueppers, and Chonggang Xu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4643–4671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4643-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4643-2024, 2024
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We adapt a fire behavior and effects module for use in a size-structured vegetation demographic model to test how climate, fire regime, and fire-tolerance plant traits interact to determine the distribution of tropical forests and grasslands. Our model captures the connection between fire disturbance and plant fire-tolerance strategies in determining plant distribution and provides a useful tool for understanding the vulnerability of these areas under changing conditions across the tropics.
Yoshiki Kanzaki, Isabella Chiaravalloti, Shuang Zhang, Noah J. Planavsky, and Christopher T. Reinhard
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4515–4532, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4515-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4515-2024, 2024
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Soil pH is one of the most commonly measured agronomical and biogeochemical indices, mostly reflecting exchangeable acidity. Explicit simulation of both porewater and bulk soil pH is thus crucial to the accurate evaluation of alkalinity required to counteract soil acidification and the resulting capture of anthropogenic carbon dioxide through the enhanced weathering technique. This has been enabled by the updated reactive–transport SCEPTER code and newly developed framework to simulate soil pH.
David Sandoval, Iain Colin Prentice, and Rodolfo L. B. Nóbrega
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4229–4309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4229-2024, 2024
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Numerous estimates of water and energy balances depend on empirical equations requiring site-specific calibration, posing risks of "the right answers for the wrong reasons". We introduce novel first-principles formulations to calculate key quantities without requiring local calibration, matching predictions from complex land surface models.
Oliver Perkins, Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Cathy Smith, Jay Mistry, and James D. A. Millington
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3993–4016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3993-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3993-2024, 2024
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Wildfire is often presented in the media as a danger to human life. Yet globally, millions of people’s livelihoods depend on using fire as a tool. So, patterns of fire emerge from interactions between humans, land use, and climate. This complexity means scientists cannot yet reliably say how fire will be impacted by climate change. So, we developed a new model that represents globally how people use and manage fire. The model reveals the extent and diversity of how humans live with and use fire.
Amos P. K. Tai, David H. Y. Yung, and Timothy Lam
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3733–3764, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3733-2024, 2024
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We have developed the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model in R (TEMIR), which simulates plant carbon and pollutant uptake and predicts their response to varying atmospheric conditions. This model is designed to couple with an atmospheric chemistry model so that questions related to plant–atmosphere interactions, such as the effects of climate change, rising CO2, and ozone pollution on forest carbon uptake, can be addressed. The model has been well validated with both ground and satellite observations.
Fabian Stenzel, Johanna Braun, Jannes Breier, Karlheinz Erb, Dieter Gerten, Jens Heinke, Sarah Matej, Sebastian Ostberg, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Wolfgang Lucht
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3235–3258, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3235-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3235-2024, 2024
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We provide an R package to compute two biosphere integrity metrics that can be applied to simulations of vegetation growth from the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL. The pressure metric BioCol indicates that we humans modify and extract > 20 % of the potential preindustrial natural biomass production. The ecosystems state metric EcoRisk shows a high risk of ecosystem destabilization in many regions as a result of climate change and land, water, and fertilizer use.
Elin Ristorp Aas, Heleen A. de Wit, and Terje K. Berntsen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2929–2959, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2929-2024, 2024
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By including microbial processes in soil models, we learn how the soil system interacts with its environment and responds to climate change. We present a soil process model, MIMICS+, which is able to reproduce carbon stocks found in boreal forest soils better than a conventional land model. With the model we also find that when adding nitrogen, the relationship between soil microbes changes notably. Coupling the model to a vegetation model will allow for further study of these mechanisms.
Thomas Wutzler, Christian Reimers, Bernhard Ahrens, and Marion Schrumpf
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2705–2725, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2705-2024, 2024
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Soil microbes provide a strong link for elemental fluxes in the earth system. The SESAM model applies an optimality assumption to model those linkages and their adaptation. We found that a previous heuristic description was a special case of a newly developed more rigorous description. The finding of new behaviour at low microbial biomass led us to formulate the constrained enzyme hypothesis. We now can better describe how microbially mediated linkages of elemental fluxes adapt across decades.
Salvatore R. Curasi, Joe R. Melton, Elyn R. Humphreys, Txomin Hermosilla, and Michael A. Wulder
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2683–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2683-2024, 2024
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Canadian forests are responding to fire, harvest, and climate change. Models need to quantify these processes and their carbon and energy cycling impacts. We develop a scheme that, based on satellite records, represents fire, harvest, and the sparsely vegetated areas that these processes generate. We evaluate model performance and demonstrate the impacts of disturbance on carbon and energy cycling. This work has implications for land surface modeling and assessing Canada’s terrestrial C cycle.
Yannek Käber, Florian Hartig, and Harald Bugmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2727–2753, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2727-2024, 2024
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Many forest models include detailed mechanisms of forest growth and mortality, but regeneration is often simplified. Testing and improving forest regeneration models is challenging. We address this issue by exploring how forest inventories from unmanaged European forests can be used to improve such models. We find that competition for light among trees is captured by the model, unknown model components can be informed by forest inventory data, and climatic effects are challenging to capture.
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Short summary
Airborne and satellite images are a great resource for calibrating and evaluating computer models of ecosystems. Typically, researchers derive ecosystem properties from these images and then compare models against these derived properties. Here, we present an alternative approach where we modify a model to predict what the satellite would see more directly. We then show how this approach can be used to calibrate model parameters using airborne data from forest sites in the northeastern US.
Airborne and satellite images are a great resource for calibrating and evaluating computer...
