Articles | Volume 13, issue 8
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Experimental...
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper 13 Aug 2020
Development and technical paper | 13 Aug 2020
The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500
Malte Meinshausen et al.
Related authors
Lea Beusch, Zebedee Nicholls, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Malte Meinshausen, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-252, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-252, 2021
Preprint under review for GMD
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We introduce the first chain of computationally efficient Earth System Model (ESM) emulators to translate user-defined greenhouse gas emission pathways into regional temperature change time series accounting for all major sources of climate change projection uncertainty. By combining the global-mean emulator MAGICC with the spatially resolved emulator MESMER, we can derive ESM-specific and constrained probabilistic emulations to rapidly provide targeted climate information at the local scale.
Charles Koven, Vivek K. Arora, Patricia Cadule, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, David M. Lawrence, Jared Lewis, Keith Lindsey, Sabine Mathesius, Malte Meinshausen, Michael Mills, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Neil C. Swart, William R. Wieder, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-23, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-23, 2021
Revised manuscript under review for ESD
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We explore the long-term dynamics of Earth's climate and carbon cycles under a pair of contrasting scenarios to the year 2300, using five models that include both climate and carbon cycle dynamics. One scenario assumes very high emissions, while the second assumes a peak in emissions, followed by rapid declines to net negative emissions. We show that the models generally agree that warming is roughly proportional to carbon emissions, but that many other aspects of the model projections differ.
Johannes Gütschow, M. Louise Jeffery, Annika Günther, and Malte Meinshausen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1005–1040, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1005-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1005-2021, 2021
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Climate policy analysis needs scenarios of future greenhouse gas emission to assess countries' emission targets and current trends. The models generating these scenarios work on a regional resolution. Scenarios are often made available only on a very coarse regional resolution. In this paper we use per country projections of gross domestic product (GDP) from the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) to derive country-level data from published regional emission scenarios.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
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We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
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We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Chris D. Jones, Thomas L. Frölicher, Charles Koven, Andrew H. MacDougall, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Joeri Rogelj, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, Nathan P. Gillett, Tatiana Ilyina, Malte Meinshausen, Nadine Mengis, Roland Séférian, Michael Eby, and Friedrich A. Burger
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4375–4385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, 2019
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Global warming is simply related to the total emission of CO2 allowing us to define a carbon budget. However, information on the Zero Emissions Commitment is a key missing link to assess remaining carbon budgets to achieve the climate targets of the Paris Agreement. It was therefore decided that a small targeted MIP activity to fill this knowledge gap would be extremely valuable. This article formalises the experimental design alongside the other CMIP6 documentation papers.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
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Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Alexander Nauels, Malte Meinshausen, Matthias Mengel, Katja Lorbacher, and Tom M. L. Wigley
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2495–2524, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2495-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2495-2017, 2017
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The MAGICC sea level model projects global sea level rise by emulating process-based estimates for all major sea level drivers and applying them to available climate scenarios and their extensions to 2300. The MAGICC sea level projections are well within the ranges of the fifth IPCC assessment report. Due to its efficient structure, this emulator is a powerful tool for exploring sea level uncertainties and investigating sea level responses for a wide range of climate mitigation pathways.
Malte Meinshausen, Elisabeth Vogel, Alexander Nauels, Katja Lorbacher, Nicolai Meinshausen, David M. Etheridge, Paul J. Fraser, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter J. Rayner, Cathy M. Trudinger, Paul B. Krummel, Urs Beyerle, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Ian G. Enting, Rachel M. Law, Chris R. Lunder, Simon O'Doherty, Ron G. Prinn, Stefan Reimann, Mauro Rubino, Guus J. M. Velders, Martin K. Vollmer, Ray H. J. Wang, and Ray Weiss
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2057–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, 2017
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Climate change is primarily driven by human-induced increases of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Based on ongoing community efforts (e.g. AGAGE and NOAA networks, ice cores), this study presents historical concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O and 40 other GHGs from year 0 to year 2014. The data is recommended as input for climate models for pre-industrial, historical runs under CMIP6. Global means, but also latitudinal by monthly surface concentration fields are provided.
T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Grosse, J. Strauss, L. Schirrmeister, A. Morgenstern, S. Schaphoff, M. Meinshausen, and J. Boike
Biogeosciences, 12, 3469–3488, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015, 2015
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We have modelled the carbon release from thawing permafrost soils under various scenarios of future warming. Our results suggests that up to about 140Pg of carbon could be released under strong warming by end of the century. We have shown that abrupt thaw processes under thermokarst lakes can unlock large amounts of perennially frozen carbon stored in deep deposits (which extend many metres into the soil).
Haklim Choi, Mi-Kyung Park, Paul J. Fraser, Hyeri Park, Sohyeon Geum, Jens Mühle, Jooil Kim, Ian Porter, Peter K. Salameh, Christina M. Harth, Bronwyn L. Dunse, Paul B. Krummel, Ray F. Weiss, Simon O'Doherty, Dickon Young, and Sunyoung Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-699, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-699, 2021
Preprint under review for ACP
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We observed 12-years continuous CH3Br pollution signals at Gosan and estimated anthropogenic CH3Br emissions in eastern China. The analysis revealed a significant discrepancy between top-down estimates and the bottom-up emissions from the fumigation usage reported to the United Nations Environment Programme, and likely from unreported or inaccurately reported fumigation usage. This result provides information to monitor international compliance with the Montreal Protocol.
Ranjeet S. Sokhi, Nicolas Moussiopoulos, Alexander Baklanov, John Bartzis, Isabelle Coll, Sandro Finardi, Rainer Friedrich, Camilla Geels, Tiia Grönholm, Tomas Halenka, Matthias Ketzel, Androniki Maragkidou, Volker Matthias, Jana Moldanova, Leonidas Ntziachristos, Klaus Schäfer, Peter Suppan, George Tsegas, Gregory Carmichael, Vicente Franco, Steve Hanna, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Guus J. M. Velders, and Jaakko Kukkonen
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-581, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-581, 2021
Preprint under review for ACP
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This review of air quality research focuses on developments over the past decade. The article considers current and future challenges that are important from air quality research and policy perspectives and highlights emerging prominent gaps of knowledge. The review also examines, how air pollution management needs to adapt to new challenges and makes recommendations to guide the direction for future air quality research within the wider community and to provide support for policy.
Peter Sperlich, Gordon W. Brailsford, Rowena C. Moss, John McGregor, Ross J. Martin, Sylvia Nichol, Sara Mikaloff-Fletcher, Beata Bukosa, Magda Mandic, Ian Schipper, and Paul Krummel
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2021-276, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2021-276, 2021
Preprint under review for AMT
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We tested an in situ analyser for carbon and oxygen isotopes in atmospheric CO2 at Baring Head, New Zealand’s observatory for Southern Ocean baseline air. The analyser was capable to resolve regional signals of the terrestrial carbon cycle, although the analysis of small events was limited by analytical uncertainty. Further improvement of the instrument performance would be desirable for the robust analysis of distant signals, and to resolve the small variability in Southern Ocean baseline air.
Masanori Takeda, Hideaki Nakajima, Isao Murata, Tomoo Nagahama, Isamu Morino, Geoffrey C. Toon, Ray F. Weiss, Jens Mühle, Paul B. Krummel, Paul J. Fraser, and Hsiang-Jui Wang
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 5955–5976, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5955-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5955-2021, 2021
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This paper presents the first observations of atmospheric HFC-23 abundances with a ground-based remote sensing technique. The increasing trend of the HFC-23 abundances analyzed by this study agrees with that derived from other existing in situ measurements. This study indicates that ground-based FTIR observation has the capability to monitor the trend of atmospheric HFC-23 and could allow for monitoring the distribution of global atmospheric HFC-23 abundances in more detail.
Alistair J. Manning, Alison L. Redington, Daniel Say, Simon O'Doherty, Dickon Young, Peter G. Simmonds, Martin K. Vollmer, Jens Mühle, Jgor Arduini, Gerard Spain, Adam Wisher, Michela Maione, Tanja J. Schuck, Kieran Stanley, Stefan Reimann, Andreas Engel, Paul B. Krummel, Paul J. Fraser, Christina M. Harth, Peter K. Salameh, Ray F. Weiss, Ray Gluckman, Peter N. Brown, John D. Watterson, and Tim Arnold
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12739–12755, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12739-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12739-2021, 2021
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This paper estimates UK emissions of important greenhouse gases (hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)) using high-quality atmospheric observations and atmospheric modelling. We compare these estimates with those submitted by the UK to the United Nations. We conclude that global concentrations of these gases are still increasing. Our estimates for the UK are 73 % of those reported and that the UK emissions are now falling, demonstrating an impact of UK government policy.
Fei Liu, Zhining Tao, Steffen Beirle, Joanna Joiner, Yasuko Yoshida, Steven J. Smith, K. Emma Knowland, and Thomas Wagner
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-642, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-642, 2021
Preprint under review for ACP
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In this work, we present a novel method to infer NOx emissions and lifetimes based on tropospheric NO2 observations together with reanalysis wind fields for cities located in polluted backgrounds. We evaluate the accuracy of the method using synthetic NO2 observations derived from a high-resolution model simulation. Our work provides an estimate for uncertainties in satellite-derived emissions inferred from chemical transport model (CTM)-independent approaches.
Lea Beusch, Zebedee Nicholls, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Malte Meinshausen, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-252, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-252, 2021
Preprint under review for GMD
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We introduce the first chain of computationally efficient Earth System Model (ESM) emulators to translate user-defined greenhouse gas emission pathways into regional temperature change time series accounting for all major sources of climate change projection uncertainty. By combining the global-mean emulator MAGICC with the spatially resolved emulator MESMER, we can derive ESM-specific and constrained probabilistic emulations to rapidly provide targeted climate information at the local scale.
Christina Heinze-Deml, Sebastian Sippel, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, and Nicolai Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4977–4999, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4977-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4977-2021, 2021
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Quantifying dynamical and thermodynamical components of regional precipitation change is a key challenge in climate science. We introduce a novel statistical model (Latent Linear Adjustment Autoencoder) that combines the flexibility of deep neural networks with the robustness advantages of linear regression. The method enables estimation of the contribution of a coarse-scale atmospheric circulation proxy to daily precipitation at high resolution and in a spatially coherent manner.
Dominique Rust, Ioannis Katharopoulos, Martin K. Vollmer, Stephan Henne, Simon O'Doherty, Daniel Say, Lukas Emmenegger, Renato Zenobi, and Stefan Reimann
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-633, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-633, 2021
Preprint under review for ACP
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Man-made halocarbons contribute to ozone-layer depletion and to global warming. We measured the atmospheric concentrations of halocarbons at the Beromünster-tower, modeled the Swiss emissions, and compared the results to the internationally reported Swiss emissions inventory. For most of the halocarbons we found good agreement, whereas one refrigerant might be overestimated in the inventory. In addition, we present first emission estimates of the newest type of halocarbons.
Yenny Gonzalez, Róisín Commane, Ethan Manninen, Bruce C. Daube, Luke D. Schiferl, J. Barry McManus, Kathryn McKain, Eric J. Hintsa, James W. Elkins, Stephen A. Montzka, Colm Sweeney, Fred Moore, Jose L. Jimenez, Pedro Campuzano Jost, Thomas B. Ryerson, Ilann Bourgeois, Jeff Peischl, Chelsea R. Thompson, Eric Ray, Paul O. Wennberg, John Crounse, Michelle Kim, Hannah M. Allen, Paul A. Newman, Britton B. Stephens, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, Benjamin A. Nault, Eric Morgan, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11113–11132, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11113-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11113-2021, 2021
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Vertical profiles of N2O and a variety of chemical species and aerosols were collected nearly from pole to pole over the oceans during the NASA Atmospheric Tomography mission. We observed that tropospheric N2O variability is strongly driven by the influence of stratospheric air depleted in N2O, especially at middle and high latitudes. We also traced the origins of biomass burning and industrial emissions and investigated their impact on the variability of tropospheric N2O.
Jan C. Minx, William F. Lamb, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Monica Crippa, Niklas Döbbeling, Piers M. Forster, Diego Guizzardi, Jos Olivier, Glen P. Peters, Julia Pongratz, Andy Reisinger, Matthew Rigby, Marielle Saunois, Steven J. Smith, Efisio Solazzo, and Hanqin Tian
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-228, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-228, 2021
Preprint under review for ESSD
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We provide a comprehensive dataset for all major greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with high sector and country resolution covering the time period 1970–2019. We find GHG have increased every decade and that the absolute increase in average annual GHG emissions has never been larger than for the most recent decade (2010–2019). We identify a number of data gaps and data quality issues and highlight the importance of stronger investments in emissions inventories and reporting.
Fabienne Maignan, Camille Abadie, Marine Remaud, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Róisín Commane, Richard Wehr, J. Elliott Campbell, Sauveur Belviso, Stephen A. Montzka, Nina Raoult, Ulli Seibt, Yoichi P. Shiga, Nicolas Vuichard, Mary E. Whelan, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 18, 2917–2955, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2917-2021, 2021
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The assimilation of carbonyl sulfide (COS) by continental vegetation has been proposed as a proxy for gross primary production (GPP). Using a land surface and a transport model, we compare a mechanistic representation of the plant COS uptake (Berry et al., 2013) to the classical leaf relative uptake (LRU) approach linking GPP and vegetation COS fluxes. We show that at high temporal resolutions a mechanistic approach is mandatory, but at large scales the LRU approach compares similarly.
Michaela I. Hegglin, Susann Tegtmeier, John Anderson, Adam E. Bourassa, Samuel Brohede, Doug Degenstein, Lucien Froidevaux, Bernd Funke, John Gille, Yasuko Kasai, Erkki T. Kyrölä, Jerry Lumpe, Donal Murtagh, Jessica L. Neu, Kristell Pérot, Ellis E. Remsberg, Alexei Rozanov, Matthew Toohey, Joachim Urban, Thomas von Clarmann, Kaley A. Walker, Hsiang-Jui Wang, Carlo Arosio, Robert Damadeo, Ryan A. Fuller, Gretchen Lingenfelser, Christopher McLinden, Diane Pendlebury, Chris Roth, Niall J. Ryan, Christopher Sioris, Lesley Smith, and Katja Weigel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1855–1903, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1855-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1855-2021, 2021
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An overview of the SPARC Data Initiative is presented, to date the most comprehensive assessment of stratospheric composition measurements spanning 1979–2018. Measurements of 26 chemical constituents obtained from an international suite of space-based limb sounders were compiled into vertically resolved, zonal monthly mean time series. The quality and consistency of these gridded datasets are then evaluated using a climatological validation approach and a range of diagnostics.
Liji M. David, Mary Barth, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Pallav Purohit, Guus J. M. Velders, Sam Glaser, and Akkihebbal R. Ravishankara
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-222, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-222, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for ACP
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We calculated the expected concentrations of trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) from the atmospheric breakdown of HFO-1234 yf (CF3CF=CH2), a substitute for global warming hydrofluorocarbons, emitted now and in the future by India, China, and the Middle East. We used two chemical transport models. We conclude that the projected emissions through 2040 would not be detrimental given the current knowledge of the effects of TFA on humans and ecosystems.
Charles Koven, Vivek K. Arora, Patricia Cadule, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, David M. Lawrence, Jared Lewis, Keith Lindsey, Sabine Mathesius, Malte Meinshausen, Michael Mills, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Neil C. Swart, William R. Wieder, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-23, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-23, 2021
Revised manuscript under review for ESD
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We explore the long-term dynamics of Earth's climate and carbon cycles under a pair of contrasting scenarios to the year 2300, using five models that include both climate and carbon cycle dynamics. One scenario assumes very high emissions, while the second assumes a peak in emissions, followed by rapid declines to net negative emissions. We show that the models generally agree that warming is roughly proportional to carbon emissions, but that many other aspects of the model projections differ.
Hélène Angot, Connor Davel, Christine Wiedinmyer, Gabrielle Pétron, Jashan Chopra, Jacques Hueber, Brendan Blanchard, Ilann Bourgeois, Isaac Vimont, Stephen A. Montzka, Ben R. Miller, James W. Elkins, and Detlev Helmig
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-285, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-285, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for ACP
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After a multi-decade global decline in atmospheric concentrations of ethane and propane (precursors to tropospheric ozone and aerosols), previous work showed a reversal of this trend in 2009–2015 in the Northern Hemisphere due to the growth in oil and natural gas production in North America. Here we show a temporary pause in the growth of atmospheric ethane and propane in 2015–2018 and highlight the critical need for additional top-down studies to further constrain ethane and propane emissions.
Lavinia Baumstark, Nico Bauer, Falk Benke, Christoph Bertram, Stephen Bi, Chen Chris Gong, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Alois Dirnaichner, Anastasis Giannousakis, Jérôme Hilaire, David Klein, Johannes Koch, Marian Leimbach, Antoine Levesque, Silvia Madeddu, Aman Malik, Anne Merfort, Leon Merfort, Adrian Odenweller, Michaja Pehl, Robert C. Pietzcker, Franziska Piontek, Sebastian Rauner, Renato Rodrigues, Marianna Rottoli, Felix Schreyer, Anselm Schultes, Bjoern Soergel, Dominika Soergel, Jessica Strefler, Falko Ueckerdt, Elmar Kriegler, and Gunnar Luderer
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-85, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-85, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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This paper presents the new and open-source version 2.1 of the REgional Model of INvestments and Development (REMIND) with the aim of improving code documentation and transparency. REMIND is an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) of the energy-economic system. By answering questions like “Can the world keep global warming below 2 degrees C, under which socio-economic conditions and applying which technological options?" it is the goal of REMIND to explore self-consistent transformation pathways.
Stijn Naus, Stephen A. Montzka, Prabir K. Patra, and Maarten C. Krol
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4809–4824, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4809-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4809-2021, 2021
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Following up on previous box model studies, we employ a 3D transport model to estimate variations in the hydroxyl radical (OH) from observations of methyl chloroform (MCF). We derive small interannual OH variations that are consistent with variations in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We also find evidence for the release of MCF from oceans in atmospheric gradients of MCF. Both findings highlight the added value of a 3D transport model since box model studies did not identify these effects.
Johannes Gütschow, M. Louise Jeffery, Annika Günther, and Malte Meinshausen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1005–1040, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1005-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1005-2021, 2021
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Climate policy analysis needs scenarios of future greenhouse gas emission to assess countries' emission targets and current trends. The models generating these scenarios work on a regional resolution. Scenarios are often made available only on a very coarse regional resolution. In this paper we use per country projections of gross domestic product (GDP) from the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) to derive country-level data from published regional emission scenarios.
Jin Ma, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Ara Cho, Stephen A. Montzka, Norbert Glatthor, John R. Worden, Le Kuai, Elliot L. Atlas, and Maarten C. Krol
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3507–3529, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3507-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3507-2021, 2021
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Carbonyl sulfide is an important trace gas in the atmosphere and useful to estimating gross primary productivity in ecosystems, but its sources and sinks remain highly uncertain. Therefore, we applied inverse model system TM5-4DVAR to better constrain the global budget. Our finding is in line with earlier studies, pointing to missing sources in the tropics and more uptake in high latitudes. We also stress the necessity of more ground-based observations and satellite data assimilation in future.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
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We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Daniel Say, Alistair J. Manning, Luke M. Western, Dickon Young, Adam Wisher, Matthew Rigby, Stefan Reimann, Martin K. Vollmer, Michela Maione, Jgor Arduini, Paul B. Krummel, Jens Mühle, Christina M. Harth, Brendan Evans, Ray F. Weiss, Ronald G. Prinn, and Simon O'Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2149–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2149-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2149-2021, 2021
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Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) are potent greenhouse gases with exceedingly long lifetimes. We used atmospheric measurements from a global monitoring network to track the accumulation of these gases in the atmosphere. In the case of the two most abundant PFCs, recent measurements indicate that global emissions are increasing. In Europe, we used a model to estimate regional PFC emissions. Our results show that there was no significant decline in northwest European PFC emissions between 2010 and 2019.
Eric J. Hintsa, Fred L. Moore, Dale F. Hurst, Geoff S. Dutton, Bradley D. Hall, J. David Nance, Ben R. Miller, Stephen A. Montzka, Laura P. Wolton, Audra McClure-Begley, James W. Elkins, Emrys G. Hall, Allen F. Jordan, Andrew W. Rollins, Troy D. Thornberry, Laurel A. Watts, Chelsea R. Thompson, Jeff Peischl, Ilann Bourgeois, Thomas B. Ryerson, Bruce C. Daube, Jasna V. Pittman, Steven C. Wofsy, Eric Kort, Glenn S. Diskin, and T. Paul Bui
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2020-496, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2020-496, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for AMT
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We built UCATS to study atmospheric chemistry and transport. It has measured chlorofluorocarbons, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, methane, carbon monoxide, and hydrogen with gas chromatography, as well as ozone and water vapor. UCATS has been part of missions to study the tropical tropopause, transport of air into the stratosphere, greenhouse gases, transport, and chemistry in the troposphere, and ozone chemistry. Its design, capabilities, and some results are shown and described here.
Kalyn Dorheim, Steven J. Smith, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 365–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-365-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-365-2021, 2021
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Simple climate models are frequently used in research and decision-making communities because of their tractability and low computational cost. Simple climate models are diverse, including highly idealized and process-based models. Here we present a hybrid approach that combines the strength of two types of simple climate models in a flexible framework. This hybrid approach has provided insights into the climate system and opens an avenue for investigating radiative forcing uncertainties.
Yohanna Villalobos, Peter J. Rayner, Jeremy D. Silver, Steven Thomas, Vanessa Haverd, Jürgen Knauer, Zoë M. Loh, Nicholas M. Deutscher, David W. T. Griffith, and David F. Pollard
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-16, 2021
Preprint under review for ACP
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Semi-arid ecosystems such as Australia are evolving and might play an essential role in the future of climate change. We use carbon dioxide concentrations derived from OCO-2 satellite instrument and a regional transport model to understand if Australia was a carbon sink or source of CO2 in 2015. Our research's main findings suggest that Australia acted as a carbon sink of about -0.3 +- 0.09 petagram of carbon in 2015, driven primarily by sparsely vegetated, savanna, and Mediterranean ecosystems.
Erin E. McDuffie, Steven J. Smith, Patrick O'Rourke, Kushal Tibrewal, Chandra Venkataraman, Eloise A. Marais, Bo Zheng, Monica Crippa, Michael Brauer, and Randall V. Martin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3413–3442, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3413-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3413-2020, 2020
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Global emission inventories are vital to understanding the impacts of air pollution on the environment, human health, and society. We update the open-source Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) to provide global gridded emissions of seven key air pollutants from 1970–2017 for 11 source sectors and multiple fuel types, including coal, solid biofuel, and liquid oil and natural gas. This dataset includes both monthly global gridded emissions and annual national totals.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020
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The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Marie-Estelle Demory, Ségolène Berthou, Jesús Fernández, Silje L. Sørland, Roman Brogli, Malcolm J. Roberts, Urs Beyerle, Jon Seddon, Rein Haarsma, Christoph Schär, Erasmo Buonomo, Ole B. Christensen, James M. Ciarlo ̀, Rowan Fealy, Grigory Nikulin, Daniele Peano, Dian Putrasahan, Christopher D. Roberts, Retish Senan, Christian Steger, Claas Teichmann, and Robert Vautard
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5485–5506, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5485-2020, 2020
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Now that global climate models (GCMs) can run at similar resolutions to regional climate models (RCMs), one may wonder whether GCMs and RCMs provide similar regional climate information. We perform an evaluation for daily precipitation distribution in PRIMAVERA GCMs (25–50 km resolution) and CORDEX RCMs (12–50 km resolution) over Europe. We show that PRIMAVERA and CORDEX simulate similar distributions. Considering both datasets at such a resolution results in large benefits for impact studies.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Sarah Strode, Simone Tilmes, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13011–13022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13011-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13011-2020, 2020
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Decadal trends and variations in OH are critical for understanding atmospheric CH4 evolution. We quantify the impacts of OH trends and variations on the CH4 budget by conducting CH4 inversions on a decadal scale with an ensemble of OH fields. We find the negative OH anomalies due to enhanced fires can reduce the optimized CH4 emissions by up to 10 Tg yr−1 during El Niño years and the positive OH trend from 1986 to 2010 results in a ∼ 23 Tg yr−1 additional increase in optimized CH4 emissions.
Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Jared Lewis, Robert Gieseke, Dietmar Dommenget, Kalyn Dorheim, Chen-Shuo Fan, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Thomas Gasser, Ulrich Golüke, Philip Goodwin, Corinne Hartin, Austin P. Hope, Elmar Kriegler, Nicholas J. Leach, Davide Marchegiani, Laura A. McBride, Yann Quilcaille, Joeri Rogelj, Ross J. Salawitch, Bjørn H. Samset, Marit Sandstad, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Christopher J. Smith, Steve Smith, Katsumasa Tanaka, Junichi Tsutsui, and Zhiang Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5175–5190, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, 2020
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Computational limits mean that we cannot run our most comprehensive climate models for all applications of interest. In such cases, reduced complexity models (RCMs) are used. Here, researchers working on 15 different models present the first systematic community effort to evaluate and compare RCMs: the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). Our research ensures that users of RCMs can more easily evaluate the strengths, weaknesses and limitations of their tools.
Philippe Ciais, Ana Bastos, Frédéric Chevallier, Ronny Lauerwald, Ben Poulter, Pep Canadell, Gustaf Hugelius, Robert B. Jackson, Atul Jain, Matthew Jones, Masayuki Kondo, Ingrid Luijkx, Prabir K. Patra, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, A. M. Roxanna Petrescu, Shilong Piao, Chunjing Qiu, Celso Von Randow, Pierre Regnier, Marielle Saunois, Robert Scholes, Anatoli Shvidenko, Hanqin Tian, Hui Yang, Xuhui Wang, and Bo Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-259, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-259, 2020
Preprint under review for GMD
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The phase-2 of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) will provide updated quantification and process understanding of CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions and sinks for ten regions of the globe. In this manuscript, we provide definitions, review different methods and make recommendations to the RECCAP community for estimating different components of the total land-atmosphere carbon exchange for each region in a consistent and complete approach.
Johannes C. Laube, Emma C. Leedham Elvidge, Karina E. Adcock, Bianca Baier, Carl A. M. Brenninkmeijer, Huilin Chen, Elise S. Droste, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Pauli Heikkinen, Andrew J. Hind, Rigel Kivi, Alexander Lojko, Stephen A. Montzka, David E. Oram, Steve Randall, Thomas Röckmann, William T. Sturges, Colm Sweeney, Max Thomas, Elinor Tuffnell, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9771–9782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9771-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9771-2020, 2020
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We demonstrate that AirCore technology, which is based on small low-cost balloons, can provide access to trace gas measurements such as CFCs at ultra-low abundances. This is a new way to quantify ozone-depleting, and related, substances in the stratosphere, which is largely inaccessible to aircraft. We show two potential uses: (a) tracking the stratospheric circulation, which is predicted to change, and (b) assessing three common meteorological reanalyses driving a global stratospheric model.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Ray L. Langenfelds, Michel Ramonet, Doug Worthy, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9525–9546, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9525-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9525-2020, 2020
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The hydroxyl radical (OH), which is the dominant sink of methane (CH4), plays a key role in closing the global methane budget. This study quantifies how uncertainties in the hydroxyl radical can influence top-down estimates of CH4 emissions based on 4D Bayesian inversions with different OH fields and the same surface observations. We show that uncertainties in CH4 emissions driven by different OH fields are comparable to the uncertainties given by current bottom-up and top-down estimations.
Andreas Geiges, Alexander Nauels, Paola Yanguas Parra, Marina Andrijevic, William Hare, Peter Pfleiderer, Michiel Schaeffer, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 697–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020, 2020
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Current global mitigation ambition in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs) up to 2030 is insufficient to achieve the 1.5 °C long-term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, we address the question of what level of collective ambition is pivotal regarding the Paris Agreement goals. We provide estimates for global mean temperature increase by 2100 for different incremental NDC update scenarios and illustrate climate impacts under those scenarios.
Yohanna Villalobos, Peter Rayner, Steven Thomas, and Jeremy Silver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8473–8500, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8473-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8473-2020, 2020
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Estimated carbon fluxes for Australia are subject to considerable uncertainty. We ran simulation experiments over Australia to determine how much these uncertainties can be constrained using satellite data. We found that the satellite data has the potential to reduce these uncertainties up to 80 % across the whole continent. For 1 month, this percentage corresponds to 0.51 Pg C y-1 for Australia. This method could lead to significantly more accurate estimates of Australia's carbon budget.
Marielle Saunois, Ann R. Stavert, Ben Poulter, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Peter A. Raymond, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Sander Houweling, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Ciais, Vivek K. Arora, David Bastviken, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Kimberly M. Carlson, Mark Carrol, Simona Castaldi, Naveen Chandra, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick M. Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles L. Curry, Giuseppe Etiope, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Michaela I. Hegglin, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Gustaf Hugelius, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Katherine M. Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ray L. Langenfelds, Goulven G. Laruelle, Licheng Liu, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe McNorton, Paul A. Miller, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Vaishali Naik, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Simon O'Doherty, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, Pierre Regnier, William J. Riley, Judith A. Rosentreter, Arjo Segers, Isobel J. Simpson, Hao Shi, Steven J. Smith, L. Paul Steele, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Francesco N. Tubiello, Aki Tsuruta, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Thomas S. Weber, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray F. Weiss, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Yi Yin, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Zhen Zhang, Yuanhong Zhao, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1561–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, 2020
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Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. We have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. This is the second version of the review dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down and bottom-up estimates.
Peter G. Simmonds, Matthew Rigby, Alistair J. Manning, Sunyoung Park, Kieran M. Stanley, Archie McCulloch, Stephan Henne, Francesco Graziosi, Michela Maione, Jgor Arduini, Stefan Reimann, Martin K. Vollmer, Jens Mühle, Simon O'Doherty, Dickon Young, Paul B. Krummel, Paul J. Fraser, Ray F. Weiss, Peter K. Salameh, Christina M. Harth, Mi-Kyung Park, Hyeri Park, Tim Arnold, Chris Rennick, L. Paul Steele, Blagoj Mitrevski, Ray H. J. Wang, and Ronald G. Prinn
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7271–7290, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7271-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7271-2020, 2020
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Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) is a potent greenhouse gas which is regulated under the Kyoto Protocol. From a 40-year record of measurements, collected at five global monitoring sites and archived air samples, we show that its concentration in the atmosphere has steadily increased. Using modelling techniques, we estimate that global emissions have increased by about 24 % over the past decade. We find that this increase is driven by the demand for SF6-insulated switchgear in developing countries.
Peter Rayner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3725–3737, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3725-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3725-2020, 2020
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This work extends previous calculations of carbon dioxide sources and sinks to take account of the varying quality of atmospheric models. It uses an extended version of Bayesian statistics which includes the model as one of the unknowns. I performed the work as an example of including the model in the description of the uncertainty.
Matthias Röthlisberger, Michael Sprenger, Emmanouil Flaounas, Urs Beyerle, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 45–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-45-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-45-2020, 2020
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In this study we quantify how much the coldest, middle and hottest third of all days during extremely hot summers contribute to their respective seasonal mean anomaly. This
extreme-summer substructurevaries substantially across the Northern Hemisphere and is directly related to the local physical drivers of extreme summers. Furthermore, comparing re-analysis (i.e. measurement-based) and climate model extreme-summer substructures reveals a remarkable level of agreement.
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
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We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Leyang Feng, Steven J. Smith, Caleb Braun, Monica Crippa, Matthew J. Gidden, Rachel Hoesly, Zbigniew Klimont, Margreet van Marle, Maarten van den Berg, and Guido R. van der Werf
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 461–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-461-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-461-2020, 2020
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We describe the methods used for generating gridded emission datasets produced for use by the modeling community, particularly for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The development of three sets of gridded data (historical open burning, historical anthropogenic, and future scenarios) was coordinated to produce consistent data over 1750–2100. We discuss the methodologies used to produce these data along with limitations and potential for future work.
Hongbin Yu, Yang Yang, Hailong Wang, Qian Tan, Mian Chin, Robert C. Levy, Lorraine A. Remer, Steven J. Smith, Tianle Yuan, and Yingxi Shi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 139–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-139-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-139-2020, 2020
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Emissions and long-range transport of mineral dust and
combustion-related aerosol from burning fossil fuels and biomass vary from year to year, driven by the evolution of the economy and changes in meteorological conditions and environmental regulations. This study offers both satellite and model perspectives on interannual variability and possible trends in combustion aerosol and dust in major continental outflow regions over the past 15 years (2003–2017).
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
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The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Peter J. Rayner, Anna M. Michalak, and Frédéric Chevallier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13911–13932, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13911-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13911-2019, 2019
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This paper describes the methods for combining models and data to understand how nutrients and pollutants move through natural systems. The methods are analogous to the process of weather forecasting in which previous information is combined with new observations and a model to improve our knowledge of the internal state of the physical system. The methods appear highly diverse but the paper shows that they are all examples of a single underlying formalism.
Falko Ueckerdt, Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Leonie Wenz, Gunnar Luderer, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 741–763, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019, 2019
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We compute the global mean temperature increase at which the costs from climate-change damages and climate-change mitigation are minimal. This temperature is computed robustly around 2 degrees of global warming across a wide range of normative assumptions on the valuation of future welfare and inequality aversion.
Adria K. Schwarber, Steven J. Smith, Corinne A. Hartin, Benjamin Aaron Vega-Westhoff, and Ryan Sriver
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 729–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-729-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-729-2019, 2019
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Simple climate models (SCMs) underlie many important scientific and decision-making endeavors. This illustrates the need for their use to be rooted in a clear understanding of their fundamental responses. In this study, we provide a comprehensive assessment of model performance by evaluating the fundamental responses of several SCMs. We find biases in some responses, which have implications for decision science. We conclude by recommending a standard set of validation tests for any SCM.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Sophie Szopa, Ann R. Stavert, Nathan Luke Abraham, Alex T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Virginie Marécal, Fiona M. O'Connor, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Sarah Strode, Simone Tilmes, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13701–13723, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, 2019
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The role of hydroxyl radical changes in methane trends is debated, hindering our understanding of the methane cycle. This study quantifies how uncertainties in the hydroxyl radical may influence methane abundance in the atmosphere based on the inter-model comparison of hydroxyl radical fields and model simulations of CH4 abundance with different hydroxyl radical scenarios during 2000–2016. We show that hydroxyl radical changes could contribute up to 54 % of model-simulated methane biases.
Chris D. Jones, Thomas L. Frölicher, Charles Koven, Andrew H. MacDougall, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Joeri Rogelj, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, Nathan P. Gillett, Tatiana Ilyina, Malte Meinshausen, Nadine Mengis, Roland Séférian, Michael Eby, and Friedrich A. Burger
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4375–4385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, 2019
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Global warming is simply related to the total emission of CO2 allowing us to define a carbon budget. However, information on the Zero Emissions Commitment is a key missing link to assess remaining carbon budgets to achieve the climate targets of the Paris Agreement. It was therefore decided that a small targeted MIP activity to fill this knowledge gap would be extremely valuable. This article formalises the experimental design alongside the other CMIP6 documentation papers.
Maxime Prignon, Simon Chabrillat, Daniele Minganti, Simon O'Doherty, Christian Servais, Gabriele Stiller, Geoffrey C. Toon, Martin K. Vollmer, and Emmanuel Mahieu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12309–12324, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12309-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12309-2019, 2019
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Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are the first, but temporary, substitution products for the strong ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). In this work, we present and validate an improved method to retrieve the most abundant HCFC in the atmosphere, allowing its evolution to be monitored independently in the troposphere and stratosphere. These kinds of contributions are fundamental for scrutinizing the fulfilment of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer.
Jens Mühle, Cathy M. Trudinger, Luke M. Western, Matthew Rigby, Martin K. Vollmer, Sunyoung Park, Alistair J. Manning, Daniel Say, Anita Ganesan, L. Paul Steele, Diane J. Ivy, Tim Arnold, Shanlan Li, Andreas Stohl, Christina M. Harth, Peter K. Salameh, Archie McCulloch, Simon O'Doherty, Mi-Kyung Park, Chun Ok Jo, Dickon Young, Kieran M. Stanley, Paul B. Krummel, Blagoj Mitrevski, Ove Hermansen, Chris Lunder, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Bo Yao, Jooil Kim, Benjamin Hmiel, Christo Buizert, Vasilii V. Petrenko, Jgor Arduini, Michela Maione, David M. Etheridge, Eleni Michalopoulou, Mike Czerniak, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Stefan Reimann, Peter G. Simmonds, Paul J. Fraser, Ronald G. Prinn, and Ray F. Weiss
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10335–10359, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10335-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10335-2019, 2019
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We discuss atmospheric concentrations and emissions of the strong greenhouse gas perfluorocyclobutane. A large fraction of recent emissions stem from China, India, and Russia, probably as a by-product from the production of fluoropolymers and fluorochemicals. Most historic emissions likely stem from developed countries. Total emissions are higher than what is being reported. Clearly, more measurements and better reporting are needed to understand emissions of this and other greenhouse gases.
Alexander J. Norton, Peter J. Rayner, Ernest N. Koffi, Marko Scholze, Jeremy D. Silver, and Ying-Ping Wang
Biogeosciences, 16, 3069–3093, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3069-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3069-2019, 2019
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This study presents an estimate of global terrestrial photosynthesis. We make use of satellite chlorophyll fluorescence measurements, a visible indicator of photosynthesis, to optimize model parameters and estimate photosynthetic carbon uptake. This new framework incorporates nonlinear, process-based understanding of the link between fluorescence and photosynthesis, an advance on past approaches. This will aid in the utility of fluorescence to quantify terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks.
Daniel Say, Anita L. Ganesan, Mark F. Lunt, Matthew Rigby, Simon O'Doherty, Christina Harth, Alistair J. Manning, Paul B. Krummel, and Stephane Bauguitte
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9865–9885, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9865-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9865-2019, 2019
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Despite its emergence as a global economic power, very little information exists regarding India's halocarbon (CFC, HCFC, HFC and chlorocarbon) emissions. We report atmospheric measurements of these gases from above India, and use them to estimate India's emissions. Our results are consistent with the emissions profile of a developing country, with large emissions of HCFCs, HFCs and chlorocarbons not regulated under the Montreal Protocol, but little evidence for ongoing CFC consumption.
Alecia Nickless, Peter J. Rayner, Robert J. Scholes, Francois Engelbrecht, and Birgit Erni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7789–7816, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7789-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7789-2019, 2019
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Different frameworks for an atmospheric inversion study over Cape Town, South Africa, are considered. We focused particularly on how sensitive the estimates of CO2 fluxes were to changes in the way the uncertainty in these estimates was specified and the impact different prior information had on the final flux estimates. We used atmospheric measurements from two new sites located near Cape Town: Robben Island and Hangklip lighthouses, which were specifically deployed for this inversion study.
Ruhi S. Humphries, Ian M. McRobert, Will A. Ponsonby, Jason P. Ward, Melita D. Keywood, Zoe M. Loh, Paul B. Krummel, and James Harnwell
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 3019–3038, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-3019-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-3019-2019, 2019
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Undertaking atmospheric observations from ships provides important data in regions where measurements are impossible by other means. However, making measurements so close to a diesel exhaust plume is difficult. In this paper, we describe an algorithm that utilises ongoing measurements of aerosol number concentrations, black carbon mass concentrations, and mixing ratios of carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide to accurately distinguish between exhaust and background data periods.
Matthew J. Gidden, Keywan Riahi, Steven J. Smith, Shinichiro Fujimori, Gunnar Luderer, Elmar Kriegler, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Maarten van den Berg, Leyang Feng, David Klein, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Mathijs Harmsen, Tomoko Hasegawa, Petr Havlik, Jérôme Hilaire, Rachel Hoesly, Jill Horing, Alexander Popp, Elke Stehfest, and Kiyoshi Takahashi
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1443–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019, 2019
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We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources for use in CMIP6. Integrated assessment model results are provided for each scenario with consistent transitions from the historical data to future trajectories. We find that the set of scenarios enables the exploration of a variety of warming pathways. A wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientific community including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets.
Lucien Froidevaux, Douglas E. Kinnison, Ray Wang, John Anderson, and Ryan A. Fuller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 4783–4821, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4783-2019, 2019
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This work evaluates two versions of a 3-D global model of upper-atmospheric composition for recent decades. The two versions differ mainly in their dynamical (wind) constraints. Model–data differences, variability, and trends in five gases (ozone, H2O, HCl, HNO3, and N2O) are compared. While the match between models and observations is impressive, a few areas of discrepancy are noted. This work also updates trends in composition based on recent satellite-based measurements (through 2018).
Stephanie Fiedler, Bjorn Stevens, Matthew Gidden, Steven J. Smith, Keywan Riahi, and Detlef van Vuuren
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 989–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-989-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-989-2019, 2019
Martin K. Vollmer, François Bernard, Blagoj Mitrevski, L. Paul Steele, Cathy M. Trudinger, Stefan Reimann, Ray L. Langenfelds, Paul B. Krummel, Paul J. Fraser, David M. Etheridge, Mark A. J. Curran, and James B. Burkholder
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3481–3492, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3481-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3481-2019, 2019
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We have discovered a new compound in the atmosphere, octafluorooxolane (c-C4F8O), from measurements in archived air samples. From our laboratory studies, we find that c-C4F8O is a very powerful greenhouse gas thereby contributing to global warming, and that it has a very long atmospheric lifetime of more than 3500 years. Based on our measurements we could reconstruct its atmospheric evolution over more than 4 decades. Based on this, we could estimate the global emissions of c-C4F8O.
Yang Yang, Steven J. Smith, Hailong Wang, Catrin M. Mills, and Philip J. Rasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2405–2420, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2405-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2405-2019, 2019
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Black carbon (BC) particles exert a potentially large warming influence on the
Earth system. We evaluate regional climate responses, non-linearity, and short-term transient responses to BC emission perturbations. We found that climate responses do not scale linearity with emissions and BC impacts temperature much faster than greenhouse gas forcing. Removing present-day BC emissions results in discernible surface temperature changes for only limited regions of the globe.
Daniel Say, Anita L. Ganesan, Mark F. Lunt, Matthew Rigby, Simon O'Doherty, Chris Harth, Alistair J. Manning, Paul B. Krummel, and Stephane Bauguitte
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-1287, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-1287, 2019
Publication in ACP not foreseen
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India is a potentially significant source of chlorocarbons, gases typically used as solvents and feedstocks. Given the potential for these species to deplete stratospheric ozone, understanding their sources is important. We use flask measurements collected from an aircraft to infer India's chlorocarbon emissions. We link emissions of carbon tetrachloride to the industrial production of other chloromethanes, and provide evidence for rapid growth in India's emissions of dichloromethane.
Ann R. Stavert, Rachel M. Law, Marcel van der Schoot, Ray L. Langenfelds, Darren A. Spencer, Paul B. Krummel, Scott D. Chambers, Alistair G. Williams, Sylvester Werczynski, Roger J. Francey, and Russell T. Howden
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 1103–1121, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1103-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1103-2019, 2019
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The Southern Ocean is a key sink of carbon dioxide (CO2), but efforts to study trends in and the variability of the sink have been hindered by the limited number of CO2 measurements in this region. Here we describe a set of new in situ continuous (minutely) atmospheric CO2 observations. We show that this new record better captures long-term changes and seasonality than traditional 2-weekly flask records. As such, this data set will provide key insights into the changing Southern Ocean sink.
Katherine Calvin, Pralit Patel, Leon Clarke, Ghassem Asrar, Ben Bond-Lamberty, Ryna Yiyun Cui, Alan Di Vittorio, Kalyn Dorheim, Jae Edmonds, Corinne Hartin, Mohamad Hejazi, Russell Horowitz, Gokul Iyer, Page Kyle, Sonny Kim, Robert Link, Haewon McJeon, Steven J. Smith, Abigail Snyder, Stephanie Waldhoff, and Marshall Wise
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 677–698, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019, 2019
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This paper describes GCAM v5.1, an open source model that represents the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems. GCAM examines the future evolution of these systems through the end of the 21st century. It can be used to examine, for example, how changes in population, income, or technology cost might alter crop production, energy demand, or water withdrawals, or how changes in one region’s demand for energy affect energy, water, and land in other regions.
Pingyang Li, Jens Mühle, Stephen A. Montzka, David E. Oram, Benjamin R. Miller, Ray F. Weiss, Paul J. Fraser, and Toste Tanhua
Ocean Sci., 15, 33–60, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-33-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-33-2019, 2019
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Use of CFCs as oceanic transient tracers is difficult for recently ventilated water masses as their atmospheric mole fractions have been decreasing. To explore novel tracers, we synthesized consistent annual mean atmospheric histories of HCFC-22, HCFC-141b, HCFC-142b, HFC-134a, HFC-125, HFC-23, PFC-14 (CF4) and PFC-116 in both hemispheres and reconstructed their solubility functions in water and seawater. This work is also potentially useful for tracer studies in a range of natural waters.
Stijn Naus, Stephen A. Montzka, Sudhanshu Pandey, Sourish Basu, Ed J. Dlugokencky, and Maarten Krol
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 407–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-407-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-407-2019, 2019
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We investigate how the use of a two-box model to describe the troposphere can impact derived results, relative to more complex models. For this, we use a 3-D transport model to tune a two-box model of OH, CH4, and MCF. By comparing the tuned two-box model with a standard model run, we can diagnose and quantify biases inherent to a two-box model. We find strong biases, but these have only a small impact on our final conclusions. However, it is not obvious that this should hold for future studies.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2141–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2018 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Robyn Butler, Paul I. Palmer, Liang Feng, Stephen J. Andrews, Elliot L. Atlas, Lucy J. Carpenter, Valeria Donets, Neil R. P. Harris, Stephen A. Montzka, Laura L. Pan, Ross J. Salawitch, and Sue M. Schauffler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13135–13153, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13135-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13135-2018, 2018
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Natural sources of short-lived bromoform and dibromomethane are important for determining the inorganic bromine budget in the stratosphere that drives ozone loss. Two new modelling techniques describe how different geographical source regions influence their atmospheric variability over the western Pacific. We find that it is driven primarily by open ocean sources, and we use atmospheric observations to help estimate their contributions to the upper tropospheric inorganic bromine budget.
Sunyoung Park, Shanlan Li, Jens Mühle, Simon O'Doherty, Ray F. Weiss, Xuekun Fang, Stefan Reimann, and Ronald G. Prinn
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11729–11738, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11729-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11729-2018, 2018
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Multi-year, real-time atmospheric carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) record obtained at Gosan station (33° N, 126° E) presents evidence of significant unreported emissions of this first-generation ozone-depleting substance. The missing emissions (~ 19 Gg yr−1) for China contribute to approximately 54 % of global emissions and are most likely related to CCl4 escape occurring during the production of chlorinated compounds and their usage as feedstocks and process agents in chemical manufacturing industries.
Vanessa Haverd, Benjamin Smith, Lars Nieradzik, Peter R. Briggs, William Woodgate, Cathy M. Trudinger, Josep G. Canadell, and Matthias Cuntz
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2995–3026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2995-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2995-2018, 2018
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CABLE is a terrestrial biosphere model that can be applied stand-alone and provides for land surface–atmosphere exchange within a climate model. We extend CABLE for regional and global carbon–climate simulations, accounting for land use and land cover change mediated by tree demography. A novel algorithm to simulate the coordination of rate-limiting photosynthetic processes is also implemented. Simulations satisfy multiple observational constraints on the global land carbon cycle.
Alexander J. Norton, Peter J. Rayner, Ernest N. Koffi, Marko Scholze, Jeremy D. Silver, and Ying-Ping Wang
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-270, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-270, 2018
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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This study presents a global estimate of land carbon uptake through photosynthesis. We make use satellite chlorophyll fluorescence measurements, a visible indicator of photosynthesis, to optimize model parameters and then use the optimized model to estimate photosynthetic carbon uptake. This provides a new tool that can combine measurements and observations in a systematic way and maximise the use of chlorophyll fluorescence to improve our understanding of the land carbon cycle.
Mary E. Whelan, Sinikka T. Lennartz, Teresa E. Gimeno, Richard Wehr, Georg Wohlfahrt, Yuting Wang, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Timothy W. Hilton, Sauveur Belviso, Philippe Peylin, Róisín Commane, Wu Sun, Huilin Chen, Le Kuai, Ivan Mammarella, Kadmiel Maseyk, Max Berkelhammer, King-Fai Li, Dan Yakir, Andrew Zumkehr, Yoko Katayama, Jérôme Ogée, Felix M. Spielmann, Florian Kitz, Bharat Rastogi, Jürgen Kesselmeier, Julia Marshall, Kukka-Maaria Erkkilä, Lisa Wingate, Laura K. Meredith, Wei He, Rüdiger Bunk, Thomas Launois, Timo Vesala, Johan A. Schmidt, Cédric G. Fichot, Ulli Seibt, Scott Saleska, Eric S. Saltzman, Stephen A. Montzka, Joseph A. Berry, and J. Elliott Campbell
Biogeosciences, 15, 3625–3657, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3625-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3625-2018, 2018
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Measurements of the trace gas carbonyl sulfide (OCS) are helpful in quantifying photosynthesis at previously unknowable temporal and spatial scales. While CO2 is both consumed and produced within ecosystems, OCS is mostly produced in the oceans or from specific industries, and destroyed in plant leaves in proportion to CO2. This review summarizes the advancements we have made in the understanding of OCS exchange and applications to vital ecosystem water and carbon cycle questions.
Myriam Guillevic, Martin K. Vollmer, Simon A. Wyss, Daiana Leuenberger, Andreas Ackermann, Céline Pascale, Bernhard Niederhauser, and Stefan Reimann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 3351–3372, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-3351-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-3351-2018, 2018
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We present new primary calibration scales for five halogenated greenhouse gases. The preparation method, newly applied to halocarbons, is dynamic and gravimetric
and allows the generation of reference gas mixtures at near-ambient levels (pmol mol−1). Each prepared molar fraction is traceable to the
realisation of SI units (International System of Units) and is assigned an uncertainty estimate following international guidelines.
Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, Jgor Arduini, Tim Arnold, H. Langley DeWitt, Paul J. Fraser, Anita L. Ganesan, Jimmy Gasore, Christina M. Harth, Ove Hermansen, Jooil Kim, Paul B. Krummel, Shanlan Li, Zoë M. Loh, Chris R. Lunder, Michela Maione, Alistair J. Manning, Ben R. Miller, Blagoj Mitrevski, Jens Mühle, Simon O'Doherty, Sunyoung Park, Stefan Reimann, Matt Rigby, Takuya Saito, Peter K. Salameh, Roland Schmidt, Peter G. Simmonds, L. Paul Steele, Martin K. Vollmer, Ray H. Wang, Bo Yao, Yoko Yokouchi, Dickon Young, and Lingxi Zhou
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 985–1018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-985-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-985-2018, 2018
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We present the data and accomplishments of the multinational global atmospheric measurement program AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment). At high frequency and at multiple sites, AGAGE measures all the important chemicals in the Montreal Protocol for the protection of the ozone layer and the non-carbon-dioxide gases assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. AGAGE uses these data to estimate sources and sinks of all these gases and has operated since 1978.
Alexander J. Norton, Peter J. Rayner, Ernest N. Koffi, and Marko Scholze
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1517–1536, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1517-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1517-2018, 2018
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It is difficult to estimate how much CO2 plants absorb via photosynthesis and even more difficult to model this for the whole globe. Here, we present a framework to combine a new satellite measurement "solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence" with a global photosynthesis model. We then quantify how this new measurement constrains model uncertainties and find highly effective constraint. These results pave a novel pathway for improving estimates and modelling abilities of photosynthesis globally.
Alecia Nickless, Peter J. Rayner, Francois Engelbrecht, Ernst-Günther Brunke, Birgit Erni, and Robert J. Scholes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4765–4801, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4765-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4765-2018, 2018
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Carbon dioxide emissions and uptake were estimated for Cape Town, South Africa. We placed two high-precision analysers in lighthouses located on either end of Cape Town (Robben Island and Hangklip). The Cape Point GAW station provided background measurements. We were able to improve the agreement between modelled and observed concentrations, relative to initial estimates provided. This methodology could potentially be scaled up to provide monitoring and verification of city emissions.
David P. Keller, Andrew Lenton, Vivian Scott, Naomi E. Vaughan, Nico Bauer, Duoying Ji, Chris D. Jones, Ben Kravitz, Helene Muri, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1133–1160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1133-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1133-2018, 2018
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There is little consensus on the impacts and efficacy of proposed carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods as a potential means of mitigating climate change. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDR-MIP) has been initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDR-MIP experiments.
Peter G. Simmonds, Matthew Rigby, Archie McCulloch, Martin K. Vollmer, Stephan Henne, Jens Mühle, Simon O'Doherty, Alistair J. Manning, Paul B. Krummel, Paul J. Fraser, Dickon Young, Ray F. Weiss, Peter K. Salameh, Christina M. Harth, Stefan Reimann, Cathy M. Trudinger, L. Paul Steele, Ray H. J. Wang, Diane J. Ivy, Ronald G. Prinn, Blagoj Mitrevski, and David M. Etheridge
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4153–4169, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4153-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4153-2018, 2018
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Recent measurements of the potent greenhouse gas HFC-23, a by-product of HCFC-22 production, show a 28 % increase in the atmospheric mole fraction from 2009 to 2016. A minimum in the atmospheric abundance of HFC-23 in 2009 was attributed to abatement of HFC-23 emissions by incineration under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Our results indicate that the recent increase in HFC-23 emissions is driven by failure of mitigation under the CDM to keep pace with increased HCFC-22 production.
Fabian Schoenenberger, Stephan Henne, Matthias Hill, Martin K. Vollmer, Giorgos Kouvarakis, Nikolaos Mihalopoulos, Simon O'Doherty, Michela Maione, Lukas Emmenegger, Thomas Peter, and Stefan Reimann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4069–4092, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4069-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4069-2018, 2018
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Anthropogenic halocarbon emissions contribute to stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. We measured atmospheric halocarbons for 6 months on Crete to extend the coverage of the existing observation network to the Eastern Mediterranean. The derived emission estimates showed a contribution of 16.8 % (13.6–23.3 %) and 53.2 % (38.1–84.2 %) of this region to the total HFC and HCFC emissions of the analyzed European domain and a reduction of the underlying uncertainties by 40–80 %.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, Andrew C. Manning, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Oliver D. Andrews, Vivek K. Arora, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Meike Becker, Richard A. Betts, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Catherine E. Cosca, Jessica Cross, Kim Currie, Thomas Gasser, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Christopher W. Hunt, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Markus Kautz, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Ivan Lima, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, X. Antonio Padin, Anna Peregon, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Janet Reimer, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Steven van Heuven, Nicolas Viovy, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Watson, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Dan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 405–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2017 describes data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. It is the 12th annual update and the 6th published in this journal.
William T. Ball, Justin Alsing, Daniel J. Mortlock, Johannes Staehelin, Joanna D. Haigh, Thomas Peter, Fiona Tummon, Rene Stübi, Andrea Stenke, John Anderson, Adam Bourassa, Sean M. Davis, Doug Degenstein, Stacey Frith, Lucien Froidevaux, Chris Roth, Viktoria Sofieva, Ray Wang, Jeannette Wild, Pengfei Yu, Jerald R. Ziemke, and Eugene V. Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1379–1394, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1379-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1379-2018, 2018
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Using a robust analysis, with artefact-corrected ozone data, we confirm upper stratospheric ozone is recovering following the Montreal Protocol, but that lower stratospheric ozone (50° S–50° N) has continued to decrease since 1998, and the ozone layer as a whole (60° S–60° N) may be lower today than in 1998. No change in total column ozone may be due to increasing tropospheric ozone. State-of-the-art models do not reproduce lower stratospheric ozone decreases.
Rachel M. Hoesly, Steven J. Smith, Leyang Feng, Zbigniew Klimont, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Tyler Pitkanen, Jonathan J. Seibert, Linh Vu, Robert J. Andres, Ryan M. Bolt, Tami C. Bond, Laura Dawidowski, Nazar Kholod, June-ichi Kurokawa, Meng Li, Liang Liu, Zifeng Lu, Maria Cecilia P. Moura, Patrick R. O'Rourke, and Qiang Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 369–408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-369-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-369-2018, 2018
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Historical emission trends are key inputs to Earth systems and atmospheric chemistry models. We present a new data set of historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic gases (CO, CH4, NH3, NOx, SO2, NMVOCs, BC, OC, and CO2) developed with the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS). This improves on existing inventories as it uses consistent methods and data across emissions species, has annual resolution for a longer and more recent time series, and is designed to be transparent and reproducible.
Martin K. Vollmer, Dickon Young, Cathy M. Trudinger, Jens Mühle, Stephan Henne, Matthew Rigby, Sunyoung Park, Shanlan Li, Myriam Guillevic, Blagoj Mitrevski, Christina M. Harth, Benjamin R. Miller, Stefan Reimann, Bo Yao, L. Paul Steele, Simon A. Wyss, Chris R. Lunder, Jgor Arduini, Archie McCulloch, Songhao Wu, Tae Siek Rhee, Ray H. J. Wang, Peter K. Salameh, Ove Hermansen, Matthias Hill, Ray L. Langenfelds, Diane Ivy, Simon O'Doherty, Paul B. Krummel, Michela Maione, David M. Etheridge, Lingxi Zhou, Paul J. Fraser, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, and Peter G. Simmonds
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 979–1002, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-979-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-979-2018, 2018
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We measured the three chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) CFC-13, CFC-114, and CFC-115 in the atmosphere because they are important in stratospheric ozone depletion. These compounds should have decreased in the atmosphere because they are banned by the Montreal Protocol but we find the opposite. Emissions over the last decade have not declined on a global scale. We use inverse modeling and our observations to find that a large part of the emissions originate in the Asian region.
Kelley C. Wells, Dylan B. Millet, Nicolas Bousserez, Daven K. Henze, Timothy J. Griffis, Sreelekha Chaliyakunnel, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Eri Saikawa, Gao Xiang, Ronald G. Prinn, Simon O'Doherty, Dickon Young, Ray F. Weiss, Geoff S. Dutton, James W. Elkins, Paul B. Krummel, Ray Langenfelds, and L. Paul Steele
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 735–756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-735-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-735-2018, 2018
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This paper uses three different frameworks to derive nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions based on global surface observations. One of these frameworks employs a new approach that allows for fast computation and explores a larger solution space than other methods. Our results point to a few conclusions about the global N2O budget, including a larger contribution from tropical sources, an overestimate of natural soil emissions, and an underestimate of agricultural sources particularly in springtime.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
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Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Thomas Kaminski and Peter Julian Rayner
Biogeosciences, 14, 4755–4766, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4755-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4755-2017, 2017
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Observations can reduce uncertainties in past, current, and predicted natural and anthropogenic CO2 fluxes. They provide independent information for verification of actions as requested by the Paris Agreement. Quantitative network design (QND) is an objective approach to optimise in situ networks and space missions to achieve an optimal use of the observational capabilities. We describe recent progress and advocate an integrated QND system that simultaneously evaluates multiple data streams.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
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Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
Dominik Brunner, Tim Arnold, Stephan Henne, Alistair Manning, Rona L. Thompson, Michela Maione, Simon O'Doherty, and Stefan Reimann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10651–10674, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10651-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10651-2017, 2017
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Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and SF6 are industrially produced gases with a large greenhouse-gas warming potential. In this study, we estimated the emissions of HFCs and SF6 over Europe by combining measurements at three background stations with four different model systems. We identified significant differences between our estimates and nationally reported numbers, but also found that the network of only three sites in Europe is insufficient to reliably attribute emissions to individual countries.
Wolfgang Steinbrecht, Lucien Froidevaux, Ryan Fuller, Ray Wang, John Anderson, Chris Roth, Adam Bourassa, Doug Degenstein, Robert Damadeo, Joe Zawodny, Stacey Frith, Richard McPeters, Pawan Bhartia, Jeannette Wild, Craig Long, Sean Davis, Karen Rosenlof, Viktoria Sofieva, Kaley Walker, Nabiz Rahpoe, Alexei Rozanov, Mark Weber, Alexandra Laeng, Thomas von Clarmann, Gabriele Stiller, Natalya Kramarova, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Thierry Leblanc, Richard Querel, Daan Swart, Ian Boyd, Klemens Hocke, Niklaus Kämpfer, Eliane Maillard Barras, Lorena Moreira, Gerald Nedoluha, Corinne Vigouroux, Thomas Blumenstock, Matthias Schneider, Omaira García, Nicholas Jones, Emmanuel Mahieu, Dan Smale, Michael Kotkamp, John Robinson, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Neil Harris, Birgit Hassler, Daan Hubert, and Fiona Tummon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10675–10690, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10675-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10675-2017, 2017
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Thanks to the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its amendments, ozone-depleting chlorine (and bromine) in the stratosphere has declined slowly since the late 1990s. Improved and extended long-term ozone profile observations from satellites and ground-based stations confirm that ozone is responding as expected and has increased by about 2 % per decade since 2000 in the upper stratosphere, around 40 km altitude. At lower altitudes, however, ozone has not changed significantly since 2000.
Yang Yang, Hailong Wang, Steven J. Smith, Richard Easter, Po-Lun Ma, Yun Qian, Hongbin Yu, Can Li, and Philip J. Rasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 8903–8922, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8903-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8903-2017, 2017
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Sulfate has significant impacts on air quality and climate. Local sulfate pollution could result from remote influences, making domestic mitigation efforts inefficient. Using CESM with a sulfur source-tagging technique, we found that, over regions with relatively low emissions, sulfate concentrations are primarily attributed to non-local sources and sulfate indirect radiative forcing over the Southern Hemisphere is more sensitive to emission perturbation than the polluted Northern Hemisphere.
Alexander Nauels, Malte Meinshausen, Matthias Mengel, Katja Lorbacher, and Tom M. L. Wigley
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2495–2524, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2495-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2495-2017, 2017
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The MAGICC sea level model projects global sea level rise by emulating process-based estimates for all major sea level drivers and applying them to available climate scenarios and their extensions to 2300. The MAGICC sea level projections are well within the ranges of the fifth IPCC assessment report. Due to its efficient structure, this emulator is a powerful tool for exploring sea level uncertainties and investigating sea level responses for a wide range of climate mitigation pathways.
Malte Meinshausen, Elisabeth Vogel, Alexander Nauels, Katja Lorbacher, Nicolai Meinshausen, David M. Etheridge, Paul J. Fraser, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter J. Rayner, Cathy M. Trudinger, Paul B. Krummel, Urs Beyerle, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Ian G. Enting, Rachel M. Law, Chris R. Lunder, Simon O'Doherty, Ron G. Prinn, Stefan Reimann, Mauro Rubino, Guus J. M. Velders, Martin K. Vollmer, Ray H. J. Wang, and Ray Weiss
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2057–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, 2017
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Climate change is primarily driven by human-induced increases of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Based on ongoing community efforts (e.g. AGAGE and NOAA networks, ice cores), this study presents historical concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O and 40 other GHGs from year 0 to year 2014. The data is recommended as input for climate models for pre-industrial, historical runs under CMIP6. Global means, but also latitudinal by monthly surface concentration fields are provided.
Peter G. Simmonds, Matthew Rigby, Archie McCulloch, Simon O'Doherty, Dickon Young, Jens Mühle, Paul B. Krummel, Paul Steele, Paul J. Fraser, Alistair J. Manning, Ray F. Weiss, Peter K. Salameh, Chris M. Harth, Ray H. J. Wang, and Ronald G. Prinn
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4641–4655, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4641-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4641-2017, 2017
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This paper reports how long-term atmospheric measurements demonstrate that the Montreal Protocol has been effective in controlling production and consumption of the hydrochlorofluorocarbons, a group of industrial chemicals that have detrimental effects on the ozone layer and also contribute to global warming as greenhouse gases and their hydrofluorocarbon substitutes which are also potent greenhouse gases but do not materially affect the ozone layer.
Yang Yang, Hailong Wang, Steven J. Smith, Po-Lun Ma, and Philip J. Rasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4319–4336, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4319-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4319-2017, 2017
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The source attributions of black carbon (BC) in China are quantified using the Community Earth System Model by source tagging. BC impacts neighboring regions greatly. Transport is important in increasing BC during regional polluted days. Emissions outside China contribute 35 % of BC direct radiative forcing in China. Efficiency analysis shows that reduction in BC emissions over eastern China could have a greater benefit for regional air quality in China, especially in the winter haze season.
Whitney Bader, Benoît Bovy, Stephanie Conway, Kimberly Strong, Dan Smale, Alexander J. Turner, Thomas Blumenstock, Chris Boone, Martine Collaud Coen, Ancelin Coulon, Omaira Garcia, David W. T. Griffith, Frank Hase, Petra Hausmann, Nicholas Jones, Paul Krummel, Isao Murata, Isamu Morino, Hideaki Nakajima, Simon O'Doherty, Clare Paton-Walsh, John Robinson, Rodrigue Sandrin, Matthias Schneider, Christian Servais, Ralf Sussmann, and Emmanuel Mahieu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2255–2277, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2255-2017, 2017
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An increase of 0.31 ± 0.03 % year−1 of atmospheric methane is reported using 10 years of solar observations performed at 10 ground-based stations since 2005. These trend agree with a GEOS-Chem-tagged simulation that accounts for the contribution of each emission source and one sink in the total methane. The GEOS-Chem simulation shows that anthropogenic emissions from coal mining and gas and oil transport and exploration have played a major role in the increase methane since 2005.
William J. Collins, Jean-François Lamarque, Michael Schulz, Olivier Boucher, Veronika Eyring, Michaela I. Hegglin, Amanda Maycock, Gunnar Myhre, Michael Prather, Drew Shindell, and Steven J. Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 585–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, 2017
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We have designed a set of climate model experiments called the Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). These are designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases in the climate models that are used to simulate past and future climate. We hope that many climate modelling centres will choose to run these experiments to help understand the contribution of aerosols and chemistry to climate change.
Daniel Mitchell, Krishna AchutaRao, Myles Allen, Ingo Bethke, Urs Beyerle, Andrew Ciavarella, Piers M. Forster, Jan Fuglestvedt, Nathan Gillett, Karsten Haustein, William Ingram, Trond Iversen, Viatcheslav Kharin, Nicholas Klingaman, Neil Massey, Erich Fischer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, John Scinocca, Øyvind Seland, Hideo Shiogama, Emily Shuckburgh, Sarah Sparrow, Dáithí Stone, Peter Uhe, David Wallom, Michael Wehner, and Rashyd Zaaboul
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 571–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, 2017
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This paper provides an experimental design to assess impacts of a world that is 1.5 °C warmer than at pre-industrial levels. The design is a new way to approach impacts from the climate community, and aims to answer questions related to the recent Paris Agreement. In particular the paper provides a method for studying extreme events under relatively high mitigation scenarios.
Bjorn Stevens, Stephanie Fiedler, Stefan Kinne, Karsten Peters, Sebastian Rast, Jobst Müsse, Steven J. Smith, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 433–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-433-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-433-2017, 2017
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A simple analytic description of aerosol optical properties and their main effects on clouds is developed and described. The analytic description is easy to use and easy to modify and should aid experimentation to help understand how aerosol radiative and cloud interactions effect climate and circulation. The climatology is recommended for adoption by models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.
Martyn P. Chipperfield, Qing Liang, Matthew Rigby, Ryan Hossaini, Stephen A. Montzka, Sandip Dhomse, Wuhu Feng, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, Christina M. Harth, Peter K. Salameh, Jens Mühle, Simon O'Doherty, Dickon Young, Peter G. Simmonds, Paul B. Krummel, Paul J. Fraser, L. Paul Steele, James D. Happell, Robert C. Rhew, James Butler, Shari A. Yvon-Lewis, Bradley Hall, David Nance, Fred Moore, Ben R. Miller, James W. Elkins, Jeremy J. Harrison, Chris D. Boone, Elliot L. Atlas, and Emmanuel Mahieu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15741–15754, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15741-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15741-2016, 2016
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Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) is a compound which, when released into the atmosphere, can cause depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer. Its emissions are controlled under the Montreal Protocol, and its atmospheric abundance is slowly decreasing. However, this decrease is not as fast as expected based on estimates of its emissions and its atmospheric lifetime. We have used an atmospheric model to look at the uncertainties in the CCl4 lifetime and to examine the impact on its atmospheric decay.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
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An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Cathy M. Trudinger, Vanessa Haverd, Peter R. Briggs, and Josep G. Canadell
Biogeosciences, 13, 6363–6383, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6363-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6363-2016, 2016
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Semi-arid ecosystems in Australia are responsible for a significant part of the variability in global atmospheric carbon dioxide. Here we use Australian observations to estimate parameters in a land surface model of carbon and water cycles. We quantify the variability in Australian carbon fluxes between 1982 and 2013, including the large uptake in 2011 associated with exceptionally wet conditions following a prolonged drought. We estimate the effect of parameter uncertainty on these estimates.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Richard A. Houghton, Ralph F. Keeling, Simone Alin, Oliver D. Andrews, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Kim Currie, Christine Delire, Scott C. Doney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Mario Hoppema, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Kevin O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Joe Salisbury, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, 2016
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The Global Carbon Budget 2016 is the 11th annual update of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. This data synthesis brings together measurements, statistical information, and analyses of model results in order to provide an assessment of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties for years 1959 to 2015, with a projection for year 2016.
Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Nelly A. M. Uitslag, Mark S. Zahniser, David D. Nelson, Stephen A. Montzka, and Huilin Chen
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 5293–5314, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5293-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5293-2016, 2016
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The accuracy of carbon models, used for the prediction of global climate change, is limited by the knowledge of the uptake of carbon by plants through photosynthesis. Carbonyl sulfide (COS) has been suggested as a tracer for this process. To be able to further explore and verify the application of this novel tracer we have tested a laser spectrometer for its suitability to obtain accurate and high precision measurements of COS and CO2 with both laboratory experiments and field measurements.
Francesco Graziosi, Jgor Arduini, Paolo Bonasoni, Francesco Furlani, Umberto Giostra, Alistair J. Manning, Archie McCulloch, Simon O'Doherty, Peter G. Simmonds, Stefan Reimann, Martin K. Vollmer, and Michela Maione
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12849–12859, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12849-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12849-2016, 2016
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Carbon tetrachloride is an ozone-depleting greenhouse gas banned under the Montreal Protocol. Measurements of atmospheric levels combined with global transport models indicate that it is still being emitted, in contrast to what is reported. In order to help solve the "mystery of carbon tetrachloride", we estimated European emissions during 2006–2014 using atmospheric observations and models. We identified emission hot spots and showed inconsistencies in national emission declarations.
Cathy M. Trudinger, Paul J. Fraser, David M. Etheridge, William T. Sturges, Martin K. Vollmer, Matt Rigby, Patricia Martinerie, Jens Mühle, David R. Worton, Paul B. Krummel, L. Paul Steele, Benjamin R. Miller, Johannes Laube, Francis S. Mani, Peter J. Rayner, Christina M. Harth, Emmanuel Witrant, Thomas Blunier, Jakob Schwander, Simon O'Doherty, and Mark Battle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 11733–11754, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11733-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11733-2016, 2016
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Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) are potent, long-lived and mostly man-made greenhouse gases released to the atmosphere mainly during aluminium production and semiconductor manufacture. Here we present the first continuous histories of three PFCs from 1800 to 2014, derived from measurements of these PFCs in the atmosphere and in air bubbles in polar ice. The records show how human actions have affected these important greenhouse gases over the past century.
Philippe Peylin, Cédric Bacour, Natasha MacBean, Sébastien Leonard, Peter Rayner, Sylvain Kuppel, Ernest Koffi, Abdou Kane, Fabienne Maignan, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, and Pascal Prunet
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3321–3346, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3321-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3321-2016, 2016
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The study describes a carbon cycle data assimilation system that uses satellite observations of vegetation activity, net ecosystem exchange of carbon and water at many sites and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, in order to optimize the parameters of the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The optimized model is able to fit all three data streams leading to a land carbon uptake similar to independent estimates, which opens new perspectives for better prediction of the land carbon balance.
Denis M. O'Brien, Igor N. Polonsky, Steven R. Utembe, and Peter J. Rayner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 4633–4654, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-4633-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-4633-2016, 2016
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The accuracy with which emissions of CO2, CH4 and CO from a complex city can be estimated from geostationary orbit is assessed via numerical experiment. Sources of the gases, meteorology, clouds and aerosols over the city are simulated, as are spectra of reflected sunlight in absorption bands of the gases. Gas concentrations are estimated from the spectra, and source distributions from the concentrations. Comparison of estimated and true sources measures the accuracy of the observing system.
James H. Butler, Shari A. Yvon-Lewis, Jurgen M. Lobert, Daniel B. King, Stephen A. Montzka, John L. Bullister, Valentin Koropalov, James W. Elkins, Bradley D. Hall, Lei Hu, and Yina Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10899–10910, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10899-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10899-2016, 2016
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This study was conducted to understand the influence of the ocean on the lifetime of atmospheric carbon tetrachloride, a strong, ozone-depleting gas. Data from 16 research cruises conducted between 1987 and 2010 show that, unlike the unreactive chlorofluorocarbons, carbon tetrachloride is undersaturated in surface waters regardless of temperature, wind, or biological regime, but with larger undersaturations with upwelling. Results suggest that the ocean consumes about 18 % of atmospheric CCl4.
Yuqiang Zhang, Jared H. Bowden, Zachariah Adelman, Vaishali Naik, Larry W. Horowitz, Steven J. Smith, and J. Jason West
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9533–9548, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9533-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9533-2016, 2016
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Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can also improve air quality. We estimate the co-benefits of global GHG mitigation for US air quality in 2050 at fine resolution by downscaling from a previous global study. Foreign GHG mitigation under RCP4.5 contributes more to the US O3 reduction (76 % of the total) than domestic mitigation and contributes 26 % of the PM2.5 reduction. Therefore, the US gains significantly greater air quality co-benefits by coordinating GHG controls internationally.
R. Hossaini, P. K. Patra, A. A. Leeson, G. Krysztofiak, N. L. Abraham, S. J. Andrews, A. T. Archibald, J. Aschmann, E. L. Atlas, D. A. Belikov, H. Bönisch, L. J. Carpenter, S. Dhomse, M. Dorf, A. Engel, W. Feng, S. Fuhlbrügge, P. T. Griffiths, N. R. P. Harris, R. Hommel, T. Keber, K. Krüger, S. T. Lennartz, S. Maksyutov, H. Mantle, G. P. Mills, B. Miller, S. A. Montzka, F. Moore, M. A. Navarro, D. E. Oram, K. Pfeilsticker, J. A. Pyle, B. Quack, A. D. Robinson, E. Saikawa, A. Saiz-Lopez, S. Sala, B.-M. Sinnhuber, S. Taguchi, S. Tegtmeier, R. T. Lidster, C. Wilson, and F. Ziska
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9163–9187, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9163-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9163-2016, 2016
Cindy Cressot, Isabelle Pison, Peter J. Rayner, Philippe Bousquet, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, and Frédéric Chevallier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9089–9108, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9089-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9089-2016, 2016
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Several hypothesis have been made to attribute current trends in atmospheric methane to particular regions. In this context, this work aims at evaluating how well anomalies in methane emissions can be detected at the regional scale with currently available observing systems: two space-borne instruments and a surface network. Our results show that inter-annual analyses of methane emissions inferred by atmospheric inversions should always include an uncertainty assessment.
Peter Rayner, Anna M. Michalak, and Frédéric Chevallier
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-148, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-148, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Numerical models are among our most important tools for understanding and prediction. Models include quantities or equations that we cannot verify directly. We learn about these unknowns by comparing model output with observations and using some algorithm to improve the inputs. We show here that the many methods for doing this are special cases of underlying statistics. This provides a unified way of comparing and contrasting such methods.
Joe McNorton, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Manuel Gloor, Chris Wilson, Wuhu Feng, Garry D. Hayman, Matt Rigby, Paul B. Krummel, Simon O'Doherty, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, Dickon Young, Ed Dlugokencky, and Steve A. Montzka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7943–7956, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7943-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7943-2016, 2016
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Methane (CH4) is an important greenhouse gas. The growth of atmospheric CH4 stalled from 1999 to 2006, with current explanations focussed mainly on changing surface fluxes. We combine models with observations and meteorological data to assess the atmospheric contribution to CH4 changes. We find that variations in mean atmospheric hydroxyl concentration can explain part of the stall in growth. Our study highlights the role of multi-annual variability in atmospheric chemistry in global CH4 trends.
M. Chirkov, G. P. Stiller, A. Laeng, S. Kellmann, T. von Clarmann, C. D. Boone, J. W. Elkins, A. Engel, N. Glatthor, U. Grabowski, C. M. Harth, M. Kiefer, F. Kolonjari, P. B. Krummel, A. Linden, C. R. Lunder, B. R. Miller, S. A. Montzka, J. Mühle, S. O'Doherty, J. Orphal, R. G. Prinn, G. Toon, M. K. Vollmer, K. A. Walker, R. F. Weiss, A. Wiegele, and D. Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3345–3368, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3345-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3345-2016, 2016
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HCFC-22 global distributions from MIPAS measurements for 2005 to 2012 are presented. Tropospheric trends are in good agreement with ground-based observations. A layer of enhanced HCFC-22 in the upper tropospheric tropics and northern subtropics is identified to come from Asian sources uplifted in the Asian monsoon. Stratospheric distributions provide show seasonal, semi-annual, and QBO-related variations. Hemispheric asymmetries of trends hint towards a change in the stratospheric circulation.
Xia Zhang, Kevin R. Gurney, Peter Rayner, David Baker, and Yu-ping Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 1907–1918, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1907-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1907-2016, 2016
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This study presents a complete exploration of the space/time effect of time variations (diurnal, weekly, monthly) in fossil fuel emission on CO2 concentration. The paper identified rectifier effect at local to regional scale that is expected from fossil fuel emission and compared to biospheric rectification, and then extends the subject to column measurement. This study demonstrates the importance of considering sub-annual fossil fuel emissions on model simulation and related studies.
T. Ziehn, R. M. Law, P. J. Rayner, and G. Roff
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 5, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-5-1-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-5-1-2016, 2016
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This study investigates the optimal location of greenhouse gas (GHG) measurement stations in Australia in order to derive GHG flux estimates from concentration measurements. We find that an optimal network designed for CO2 also performs well for other GHGs such as CH4 and N2O due to large similarities in the flux pattern for each of the three GHGs. Economic costs (i.e. maintenance costs) can be halved by selecting stations closer to the base laboratory with only a slight decrease in performance.
P. G. Simmonds, M. Rigby, A. J. Manning, M. F. Lunt, S. O'Doherty, A. McCulloch, P. J. Fraser, S. Henne, M. K. Vollmer, J. Mühle, R. F. Weiss, P. K. Salameh, D. Young, S. Reimann, A. Wenger, T. Arnold, C. M. Harth, P. B. Krummel, L. P. Steele, B. L. Dunse, B. R. Miller, C. R. Lunder, O. Hermansen, N. Schmidbauer, T. Saito, Y. Yokouchi, S. Park, S. Li, B. Yao, L. X. Zhou, J. Arduini, M. Maione, R. H. J. Wang, D. Ivy, and R. G. Prinn
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 365–382, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-365-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-365-2016, 2016
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We report regional and global emissions estimates of HFC-152a using high frequency measurements from 11 observing sites and archived air samples dating back to 1978 together with atmospheric transport models. The "bottom-up" emissions of HFC-152a reported to the UNFCCC appear to significantly underestimate those reported here from observations. This discrepancy we suggest arises from largely underestimated USA and undeclared Asian emissions.
S. Tegtmeier, F. Ziska, I. Pisso, B. Quack, G. J. M. Velders, X. Yang, and K. Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13647–13663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13647-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13647-2015, 2015
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At present, man-made halogens and natural oceanic substances both contribute to the observed ozone depletion. Emissions of the anthropogenic halogens have been reduced, whereas emissions of the natural substances are expected to increase in future climate due to anthropogenic activities affecting oceanic processes. We assess the impact of these oceanic substances on ozone by weighting their emissions with their potential to destroy ozone for current conditions and future projections.
S. J. Lawson, M. D. Keywood, I. E. Galbally, J. L. Gras, J. M. Cainey, M. E. Cope, P. B. Krummel, P. J. Fraser, L. P. Steele, S. T. Bentley, C. P. Meyer, Z. Ristovski, and A. H. Goldstein
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13393–13411, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13393-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13393-2015, 2015
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Biomass burning (BB) plumes were opportunistically measured at the Cape Grim Baseline Station in Tasmania, Australia. We provide a unique set of trace gas and particle emission factors for temperate Australian coastal heathland fires, and attribute a major short-lived enhancement in emission ratios to a minor rainfall event. The ability of BB particles to act as cloud condensation nuclei, and the contribution of BB emissions to observed particle growth and ozone enhancements are discussed.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, S. Sitch, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Friedlingstein, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, T. A. Boden, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, R. F. Keeling, P. Tans, A. Arneth, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Barbero, L. Bopp, J. Chang, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, P. Ciais, M. Fader, R. A. Feely, T. Gkritzalis, I. Harris, J. Hauck, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Kato, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, N. Metzl, F. Millero, D. R. Munro, A. Murata, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S. Nakaoka, Y. Nojiri, K. O'Brien, A. Olsen, T. Ono, F. F. Pérez, B. Pfeil, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, G. R. van der Werf, S. van Heuven, D. Vandemark, N. Viovy, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015
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Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. We describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on a range of data and models and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
S. T. Lennartz, G. Krysztofiak, C. A. Marandino, B.-M. Sinnhuber, S. Tegtmeier, F. Ziska, R. Hossaini, K. Krüger, S. A. Montzka, E. Atlas, D. E. Oram, T. Keber, H. Bönisch, and B. Quack
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11753–11772, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11753-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11753-2015, 2015
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Marine-produced short-lived trace gases such as halocarbons and DMS significantly impact atmospheric chemistry. To assess this impact on ozone depletion and the radiative budget, it is critical that their marine emissions in atmospheric chemistry models are quantified as accurately as possible. We show that calculating emissions online with an interactive atmosphere improves the agreement with current observations and should be employed regularly in models where marine sources are important.
M. K. Kajos, P. Rantala, M. Hill, H. Hellén, J. Aalto, J. Patokoski, R. Taipale, C. C. Hoerger, S. Reimann, T. M. Ruuskanen, J. Rinne, and T. Petäjä
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 4453–4473, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-4453-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-4453-2015, 2015
K. C. Wells, D. B. Millet, N. Bousserez, D. K. Henze, S. Chaliyakunnel, T. J. Griffis, Y. Luan, E. J. Dlugokencky, R. G. Prinn, S. O'Doherty, R. F. Weiss, G. S. Dutton, J. W. Elkins, P. B. Krummel, R. Langenfelds, L. P. Steele, E. A. Kort, S. C. Wofsy, and T. Umezawa
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3179–3198, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3179-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3179-2015, 2015
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This paper introduces a new inversion framework for N2O using GEOS-Chem and its adjoint, which we employed in a series of observing system simulation experiments to evaluate the source and sink constraints provided by surface and aircraft-based N2O measurements. We also applied a new approach for estimating a posteriori uncertainty for high-dimensional inversions, and used it to quantify the spatial and temporal resolution of N2O emission constraints achieved with the current observing network.
K. Lorbacher, A. Nauels, and M. Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2723–2734, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2723-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2723-2015, 2015
C. C. Hoerger, A. Claude, C. Plass-Duelmer, S. Reimann, E. Eckart, R. Steinbrecher, J. Aalto, J. Arduini, N. Bonnaire, J. N. Cape, A. Colomb, R. Connolly, J. Diskova, P. Dumitrean, C. Ehlers, V. Gros, H. Hakola, M. Hill, J. R. Hopkins, J. Jäger, R. Junek, M. K. Kajos, D. Klemp, M. Leuchner, A. C. Lewis, N. Locoge, M. Maione, D. Martin, K. Michl, E. Nemitz, S. O'Doherty, P. Pérez Ballesta, T. M. Ruuskanen, S. Sauvage, N. Schmidbauer, T. G. Spain, E. Straube, M. Vana, M. K. Vollmer, R. Wegener, and A. Wenger
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 2715–2736, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2715-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2715-2015, 2015
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The performance of 20 European laboratories involved in long-term non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC) measurements was assessed with respect to ACTRIS and GAW data quality objectives. The participants were asked to measure both a 30-component NMHC mixture in nitrogen and whole air. The NMHCs were analysed either by GC-FID or GC-MS. Most systems performed well for the NMHC in nitrogen, whereas in air more scatter was observed. Reasons for this are explained in the paper.
E. N. Koffi, P. J. Rayner, A. J. Norton, C. Frankenberg, and M. Scholze
Biogeosciences, 12, 4067–4084, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4067-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4067-2015, 2015
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We investigate the utility of satellite measurements of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) in constraining gross primary productivity (GPP). We simulate SIF with the biosphere model BETHY coupled with the fluorescence model SCOPE. The model simulates well the patterns of SIF. SIF is sensitive to leaf chlorophyll and incoming radiation but not to the key physiological parameter Vcmax controlling GPP. Thus, further model development is necessary before SIF can be used to constrain GPP.
S. Crowell, P. Rayner, S. Zaccheo, and B. Moore
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 2685–2697, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2685-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2685-2015, 2015
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We derive a yes/no requirement for the usefulness of an O2 lidar as part of the ASCENDS mission that incorporates errors due to atmospheric state misspecification as well as instrumental noise. We find that the larger the CO2 instrument's sensitivity to surface pressure errors, the lower the precision requirement for the O2 instrument to be useful. In particular, the 2um CO2 instrument would benefit the most from the inclusion of an O2 lidar with high precision retrievals of surface pressure.
T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Grosse, J. Strauss, L. Schirrmeister, A. Morgenstern, S. Schaphoff, M. Meinshausen, and J. Boike
Biogeosciences, 12, 3469–3488, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015, 2015
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We have modelled the carbon release from thawing permafrost soils under various scenarios of future warming. Our results suggests that up to about 140Pg of carbon could be released under strong warming by end of the century. We have shown that abrupt thaw processes under thermokarst lakes can unlock large amounts of perennially frozen carbon stored in deep deposits (which extend many metres into the soil).
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, G. P. Peters, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, S. D. Jones, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, T. A. Boden, L. Bopp, Y. Bozec, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, F. Chevallier, C. E. Cosca, I. Harris, M. Hoppema, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, T. Johannessen, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, C. S. Landa, P. Landschützer, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, G. Marland, J. T. Mathis, N. Metzl, Y. Nojiri, A. Olsen, T. Ono, S. Peng, W. Peters, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. E. Salisbury, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, J. Segschneider, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, G. R. van der Werf, N. Viovy, Y.-P. Wang, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 47–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, 2015
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Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities (burning fossil fuels and cement production, deforestation and other land-use change) are set to rise again in 2014.
This study (updated yearly) makes an accurate assessment of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and their redistribution between the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in order to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change.
J. A. Fisher, S. R. Wilson, G. Zeng, J. E. Williams, L. K. Emmons, R. L. Langenfelds, P. B. Krummel, and L. P. Steele
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3217–3239, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3217-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3217-2015, 2015
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The Southern Hemisphere (SH) serves as an important test bed for evaluating our understanding of the processes that drive the composition of the clean background atmosphere. Using data from two aircraft campaigns, combined with four atmospheric chemistry models, we find a large sensitivity in the remote SH to biogenic emissions and their subsequent chemistry and transport. Future model evaluation and measurement campaigns should prioritize reducing uncertainties in these processes.
A. Ghosh, P. K. Patra, K. Ishijima, T. Umezawa, A. Ito, D. M. Etheridge, S. Sugawara, K. Kawamura, J. B. Miller, E. J. Dlugokencky, P. B. Krummel, P. J. Fraser, L. P. Steele, R. L. Langenfelds, C. M. Trudinger, J. W. C. White, B. Vaughn, T. Saeki, S. Aoki, and T. Nakazawa
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2595–2612, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2595-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2595-2015, 2015
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Atmospheric CH4 increased from 900ppb to 1800ppb during the period 1900–2010 at a rate unprecedented in any observational records. We use bottom-up emissions and a chemistry-transport model to simulate CH4. The optimized global total CH4 emission, estimated from the model–observation differences, increased at fastest rate during 1940–1990. Using δ13C of CH4 measurements we attribute this emission increase to biomass burning. Total CH4 lifetime is shortened by 4% over the simulation period.
A. Nickless, T. Ziehn, P.J. Rayner, R.J. Scholes, and F. Engelbrecht
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2051–2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2051-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2051-2015, 2015
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This study aims to provide an optimal network design for the placement of new atmospheric monitoring stations around South Africa, to best estimate the emission and uptake of carbon dioxide fluxes due to both anthropogenic and natural sources. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed on the impact that certain parameters would have on the final network solution, considering the inverse modelling framework, the transport model and the use of a different optimisation routine.
E. C. Leedham Elvidge, D. E. Oram, J. C. Laube, A. K. Baker, S. A. Montzka, S. Humphrey, D. A. O'Sullivan, and C. A. M. Brenninkmeijer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 1939–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1939-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1939-2015, 2015
P. J. Rayner, A. Stavert, M. Scholze, A. Ahlström, C. E. Allison, and R. M. Law
Biogeosciences, 12, 835–844, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-835-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-835-2015, 2015
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Recent papers suggest a slow-down in the natural uptake of
anthropogenic CO2. We analyse recent trends in atmospheric concentration and
known inputs to test for such a slow-down. We see, rather, an increase
in uptake compared to a simple response to changing CO2 concentration. Using atmospheric models and statistical techniques we isolate this increased uptake to the northern temperate and boreal continents during summer, suggesting a stronger growing season.
S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, N. Gruber, S. D. Jones, G. Murray-Tortarolo, A. Ahlström, S. C. Doney, H. Graven, C. Heinze, C. Huntingford, S. Levis, P. E. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, N. Zeng, A. Arneth, G. Bonan, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, R. Ellis, M. Gloor, P. Peylin, S. L. Piao, C. Le Quéré, B. Smith, Z. Zhu, and R. Myneni
Biogeosciences, 12, 653–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, 2015
Z. M. Loh, R. M. Law, K. D. Haynes, P. B. Krummel, L. P. Steele, P. J. Fraser, S. D. Chambers, and A. G. Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 305–317, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-305-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-305-2015, 2015
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The paper compares methane observations at Cape Grim, Tasmania, with model-simulated methane to better constrain methane fluxes from southeastern Australia. Inventory estimates of anthropogenic methane emissions appear to be supported by observed atmospheric methane. A missing methane source in springtime (October to November) is tentatively attributed to wetland emissions.
S. R. Utembe, N. Jones, P. J. Rayner, I. Genkova, D. W. T. Griffith, D. M. O'Brien, C. Lunney, and A. J. Clark
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-31551-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-31551-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
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A methodology to estimate CO2 emissions from an isolated power plant
is presented and illustrated for a power station in South Australia. It involves measurement of in-situ and column-averaged CO2 near the power plant, forward modelling of the observed signals (using WRF-Chem) and inverse modelling to obtain an estimate of the power plant fluxes. Better simulation is obtained for column data giving better estimates of fluxes. Our estimated emissions are within 6% of the reported values.
A. Fraser, P. I. Palmer, L. Feng, H. Bösch, R. Parker, E. J. Dlugokencky, P. B. Krummel, and R. L. Langenfelds
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12883–12895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12883-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12883-2014, 2014
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Satellite measurements of CO2 and CH4 can be subject to regional systematic errors that can consequently compromise their ability to infer robust flux estimates of these two gases. We develop a method to use retrieved ratios of CH4 and CO2 that are less affected by systematic error. We show that additional in situ data are needed to anchor these observed ratios so they can simultaneously infer fluxes of CO2 and CH4. We argue the ratio data will provide a more faithful description of true fluxes.
X. Zhang, K. R. Gurney, P. Rayner, Y. Liu, and S. Asefi-Najafabady
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2867–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2867-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2867-2014, 2014
W. Bader, T. Stavrakou, J.-F. Muller, S. Reimann, C. D. Boone, J. J. Harrison, O. Flock, B. Bovy, B. Franco, B. Lejeune, C. Servais, and E. Mahieu
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 3861–3872, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3861-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3861-2014, 2014
P. J. Rayner, S. R. Utembe, and S. Crowell
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 3285–3293, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3285-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3285-2014, 2014
M. Maione, F. Graziosi, J. Arduini, F. Furlani, U. Giostra, D. R. Blake, P. Bonasoni, X. Fang, S. A. Montzka, S. J. O'Doherty, S. Reimann, A. Stohl, and M. K. Vollmer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9755–9770, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9755-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9755-2014, 2014
T. Ziehn, A. Nickless, P. J. Rayner, R. M. Law, G. Roff, and P. Fraser
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9363–9378, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9363-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9363-2014, 2014
S. O'Doherty, M. Rigby, J. Mühle, D. J. Ivy, B. R. Miller, D. Young, P. G. Simmonds, S. Reimann, M. K. Vollmer, P. B. Krummel, P. J. Fraser, L. P. Steele, B. Dunse, P. K. Salameh, C. M. Harth, T. Arnold, R. F. Weiss, J. Kim, S. Park, S. Li, C. Lunder, O. Hermansen, N. Schmidbauer, L. X. Zhou, B. Yao, R. H. J. Wang, A. J. Manning, and R. G. Prinn
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9249–9258, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9249-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9249-2014, 2014
S. J. Oltmans, A. Karion, R. C. Schnell, G. Pétron, C. Sweeney, S. Wolter, D. Neff, S. A. Montzka, B. R. Miller, D. Helmig, B. J. Johnson, and J. Hueber
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-20117-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-20117-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
P. Ciais, A. J. Dolman, A. Bombelli, R. Duren, A. Peregon, P. J. Rayner, C. Miller, N. Gobron, G. Kinderman, G. Marland, N. Gruber, F. Chevallier, R. J. Andres, G. Balsamo, L. Bopp, F.-M. Bréon, G. Broquet, R. Dargaville, T. J. Battin, A. Borges, H. Bovensmann, M. Buchwitz, J. Butler, J. G. Canadell, R. B. Cook, R. DeFries, R. Engelen, K. R. Gurney, C. Heinze, M. Heimann, A. Held, M. Henry, B. Law, S. Luyssaert, J. Miller, T. Moriyama, C. Moulin, R. B. Myneni, C. Nussli, M. Obersteiner, D. Ojima, Y. Pan, J.-D. Paris, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, S. Plummer, S. Quegan, P. Raymond, M. Reichstein, L. Rivier, C. Sabine, D. Schimel, O. Tarasova, R. Valentini, R. Wang, G. van der Werf, D. Wickland, M. Williams, and C. Zehner
Biogeosciences, 11, 3547–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, 2014
M. R. Raupach, M. Gloor, J. L. Sarmiento, J. G. Canadell, T. L. Frölicher, T. Gasser, R. A. Houghton, C. Le Quéré, and C. M. Trudinger
Biogeosciences, 11, 3453–3475, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3453-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3453-2014, 2014
R. L. Thompson, K. Ishijima, E. Saikawa, M. Corazza, U. Karstens, P. K. Patra, P. Bergamaschi, F. Chevallier, E. Dlugokencky, R. G. Prinn, R. F. Weiss, S. O'Doherty, P. J. Fraser, L. P. Steele, P. B. Krummel, A. Vermeulen, Y. Tohjima, A. Jordan, L. Haszpra, M. Steinbacher, S. Van der Laan, T. Aalto, F. Meinhardt, M. E. Popa, J. Moncrieff, and P. Bousquet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6177–6194, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6177-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6177-2014, 2014
C. Le Quéré, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, R. M. Andrew, T. A. Boden, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, R. A. Houghton, G. Marland, R. Moriarty, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, S. C. Doney, A. Harper, I. Harris, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, S. D. Jones, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, A. Körtzinger, C. Koven, N. Lefèvre, F. Maignan, A. Omar, T. Ono, G.-H. Park, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. Schwinger, J. Segschneider, B. D. Stocker, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, S. van Heuven, N. Viovy, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and S. Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 235–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, 2014
E. Saikawa, R. G. Prinn, E. Dlugokencky, K. Ishijima, G. S. Dutton, B. D. Hall, R. Langenfelds, Y. Tohjima, T. Machida, M. Manizza, M. Rigby, S. O'Doherty, P. K. Patra, C. M. Harth, R. F. Weiss, P. B. Krummel, M. van der Schoot, P. J. Fraser, L. P. Steele, S. Aoki, T. Nakazawa, and J. W. Elkins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4617–4641, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4617-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4617-2014, 2014
G. J. M. Velders, S. Solomon, and J. S. Daniel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4563–4572, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4563-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4563-2014, 2014
R. L. Thompson, P. K. Patra, K. Ishijima, E. Saikawa, M. Corazza, U. Karstens, C. Wilson, P. Bergamaschi, E. Dlugokencky, C. Sweeney, R. G. Prinn, R. F. Weiss, S. O'Doherty, P. J. Fraser, L. P. Steele, P. B. Krummel, M. Saunois, M. Chipperfield, and P. Bousquet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4349–4368, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4349-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4349-2014, 2014
A. L. Ganesan, M. Rigby, A. Zammit-Mangion, A. J. Manning, R. G. Prinn, P. J. Fraser, C. M. Harth, K.-R. Kim, P. B. Krummel, S. Li, J. Mühle, S. J. O'Doherty, S. Park, P. K. Salameh, L. P. Steele, and R. F. Weiss
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3855–3864, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3855-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3855-2014, 2014
G. J. M. Velders and J. S. Daniel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 2757–2776, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2757-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2757-2014, 2014
M. E. Popa, M. K. Vollmer, A. Jordan, W. A. Brand, S. L. Pathirana, M. Rothe, and T. Röckmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 2105–2123, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2105-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2105-2014, 2014
R. L. Thompson, F. Chevallier, A. M. Crotwell, G. Dutton, R. L. Langenfelds, R. G. Prinn, R. F. Weiss, Y. Tohjima, T. Nakazawa, P. B. Krummel, L. P. Steele, P. Fraser, S. O'Doherty, K. Ishijima, and S. Aoki
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1801–1817, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1801-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1801-2014, 2014
B. D. Hall, A. Engel, J. Mühle, J. W. Elkins, F. Artuso, E. Atlas, M. Aydin, D. Blake, E.-G. Brunke, S. Chiavarini, P. J. Fraser, J. Happell, P. B. Krummel, I. Levin, M. Loewenstein, M. Maione, S. A. Montzka, S. O'Doherty, S. Reimann, G. Rhoderick, E. S. Saltzman, H. E. Scheel, L. P. Steele, M. K. Vollmer, R. F. Weiss, D. Worthy, and Y. Yokouchi
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 469–490, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-469-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-469-2014, 2014
E. Mahieu, R. Zander, G. C. Toon, M. K. Vollmer, S. Reimann, J. Mühle, W. Bader, B. Bovy, B. Lejeune, C. Servais, P. Demoulin, G. Roland, P. F. Bernath, C. D. Boone, K. A. Walker, and P. Duchatelet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 333–344, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-333-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-333-2014, 2014
L. Kuai, J. Worden, S. S. Kulawik, S. A. Montzka, and J. Liu
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 163–172, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-163-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-163-2014, 2014
S. J. Smith and T. C. Bond
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 537–549, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-537-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-537-2014, 2014
C. Cressot, F. Chevallier, P. Bousquet, C. Crevoisier, E. J. Dlugokencky, A. Fortems-Cheiney, C. Frankenberg, R. Parker, I. Pison, R. A. Scheepmaker, S. A. Montzka, P. B. Krummel, L. P. Steele, and R. L. Langenfelds
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 577–592, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-577-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-577-2014, 2014
S. J. Smith
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
R. Hossaini, H. Mantle, M. P. Chipperfield, S. A. Montzka, P. Hamer, F. Ziska, B. Quack, K. Krüger, S. Tegtmeier, E. Atlas, S. Sala, A. Engel, H. Bönisch, T. Keber, D. Oram, G. Mills, C. Ordóñez, A. Saiz-Lopez, N. Warwick, Q. Liang, W. Feng, F. Moore, B. R. Miller, V. Marécal, N. A. D. Richards, M. Dorf, and K. Pfeilsticker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11819–11838, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11819-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11819-2013, 2013
B. W. LaFranchi, G. Pétron, J. B. Miller, S. J. Lehman, A. E. Andrews, E. J. Dlugokencky, B. Hall, B. R. Miller, S. A. Montzka, W. Neff, P. C. Novelli, C. Sweeney, J. C. Turnbull, D. E. Wolfe, P. P. Tans, K. R. Gurney, and T. P. Guilderson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11101–11120, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11101-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11101-2013, 2013
P. Peylin, R. M. Law, K. R. Gurney, F. Chevallier, A. R. Jacobson, T. Maki, Y. Niwa, P. K. Patra, W. Peters, P. J. Rayner, C. Rödenbeck, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, and X. Zhang
Biogeosciences, 10, 6699–6720, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6699-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6699-2013, 2013
S. J. Smith and A. Rothwell
Biogeosciences, 10, 6323–6337, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6323-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6323-2013, 2013
S. Basu, S. Guerlet, A. Butz, S. Houweling, O. Hasekamp, I. Aben, P. Krummel, P. Steele, R. Langenfelds, M. Torn, S. Biraud, B. Stephens, A. Andrews, and D. Worthy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 8695–8717, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8695-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8695-2013, 2013
Y. Xu, D. Zaelke, G. J. M. Velders, and V. Ramanathan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6083–6089, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6083-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6083-2013, 2013
A. Fraser, P. I. Palmer, L. Feng, H. Boesch, A. Cogan, R. Parker, E. J. Dlugokencky, P. J. Fraser, P. B. Krummel, R. L. Langenfelds, S. O'Doherty, R. G. Prinn, L. P. Steele, M. van der Schoot, and R. F. Weiss
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5697–5713, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5697-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5697-2013, 2013
S. M. Burrows, P. J. Rayner, T. Butler, and M. G. Lawrence
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5473–5488, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5473-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5473-2013, 2013
C. Le Quéré, R. J. Andres, T. Boden, T. Conway, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, G. Marland, G. P. Peters, G. R. van der Werf, A. Ahlström, R. M. Andrew, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, P. Ciais, S. C. Doney, C. Enright, P. Friedlingstein, C. Huntingford, A. K. Jain, C. Jourdain, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, S. Levis, P. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, J. Schwinger, S. Sitch, B. D. Stocker, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 165–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-165-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-165-2013, 2013
V. Haverd, M. R. Raupach, P. R. Briggs, J. G. Canadell, P. Isaac, C. Pickett-Heaps, S. H. Roxburgh, E. van Gorsel, R. A. Viscarra Rossel, and Z. Wang
Biogeosciences, 10, 2011–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2011-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2011-2013, 2013
V. Haverd, M. R. Raupach, P. R. Briggs, J. G. Canadell., S. J. Davis, R. M. Law, C. P. Meyer, G. P. Peters, C. Pickett-Heaps, and B. Sherman
Biogeosciences, 10, 851–869, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-851-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-851-2013, 2013
C. M. Trudinger, I. G. Enting, P. J. Rayner, D. M. Etheridge, C. Buizert, M. Rubino, P. B. Krummel, and T. Blunier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1485–1510, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1485-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1485-2013, 2013
P. K. Patra, J. G. Canadell, R. A. Houghton, S. L. Piao, N.-H. Oh, P. Ciais, K. R. Manjunath, A. Chhabra, T. Wang, T. Bhattacharya, P. Bousquet, J. Hartman, A. Ito, E. Mayorga, Y. Niwa, P. A. Raymond, V. V. S. S. Sarma, and R. Lasco
Biogeosciences, 10, 513–527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-513-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-513-2013, 2013
G. Hugelius, C. Tarnocai, G. Broll, J. G. Canadell, P. Kuhry, and D. K. Swanson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 3–13, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-3-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-3-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Climate and Earth system modeling
FAMOUS version xotzt (FAMOUS-ice): a general circulation model (GCM) capable of energy- and water-conserving coupling to an ice sheet model
EC-Earth3-AerChem: a global climate model with interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry participating in CMIP6
Vertical grid refinement for stratocumulus clouds in the radiation scheme of the global climate model ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3-P3
Cloud Feedbacks from CanESM2 to CanESM5.0 and their influence on climate sensitivity
ATTRICI v1.1 – counterfactual climate for impact attribution
Mitigation of the double ITCZ syndrome in BCC-CSM2-MR through improving parameterizations of boundary-layer turbulence and shallow convection
COSMO-CLM regional climate simulations in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework: a review
TempestExtremes v2.1: a community framework for feature detection, tracking, and analysis in large datasets
ICONGETM v1.0 – flexible NUOPC-driven two-way coupling via ESMF exchange grids between the unstructured-grid atmosphere model ICON and the structured-grid coastal ocean model GETM
A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf
The SMHI Large Ensemble (SMHI-LENS) with EC-Earth3.3.1
Oil palm modelling in the global land surface model ORCHIDEE-MICT
Testing the reliability of interpretable neural networks in geoscience using the Madden–Julian oscillation
Climate-model-informed deep learning of global soil moisture distribution
fv3gfs-wrapper: a Python wrapper of the FV3GFS atmospheric model
Recalibrating decadal climate predictions – what is an adequate model for the drift?
Multi-variate factorisation of numerical simulations
Inclusion of a suite of weathering tracers in the cGENIE Earth system model – muffin release v.0.9.23
The ENEA-REG system (v1.0), a multi-component regional Earth system model: sensitivity to different atmospheric components over the Med-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) region
CM2Mc-LPJmL v1.0: biophysical coupling of a process-based dynamic vegetation model with managed land to a general circulation model
ESM-Tools version 5.0: a modular infrastructure for stand-alone and coupled Earth system modelling (ESM)
Performance of the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) climate component – a COAWST V3.3-based coupled atmosphere–ocean modelling suite: atmospheric dataset
Performance of the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) climate component – a COAWST V3.3-based coupled atmosphere-ocean modelling suite: ocean part
Model of Early Diagenesis in the Upper Sediment with Adaptable complexity – MEDUSA (v. 2): a time-dependent biogeochemical sediment module for Earth system models, process analysis and teaching
A Markov chain method for weighting climate model ensembles
Iodine chemistry in the chemistry-climate model SOCOL-AERv2-iodine
Building indoor model in PALM-4U: indoor climate, energy demand, and the interaction between buildings and the urban microclimate
Improvement of modeling plant responses to low soil moisture in JULESvn4.9 and evaluation against flux tower measurements
Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – diagnostics for extreme events, regional and impact evaluation, and analysis of Earth system models in CMIP
Reproducing complex simulations of economic impacts of climate change with lower-cost emulators
A Simplified Chemistry-Dynamical Model
An improved multivariable integrated evaluation method and tool (MVIETool) v1.0 for multimodel intercomparison
Physically regularized machine learning emulators of aerosol activation
Decadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5)
FaIRv2.0.0: a generalized impulse response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration
BCC-CSM2-HR: a high-resolution version of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model
A Schwarz iterative method to evaluate ocean–atmosphere coupling schemes: implementation and diagnostics in IPSL-CM6-SW-VLR
Validation of Terrestrial Biogeochemistry in CMIP6 Earth System Models: A Review
Unstructured global to coastal wave modeling for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model using WAVEWATCH III version 6.07
TransEBM v. 1.0: description, tuning, and validation of a transient model of the Earth's energy balance in two dimensions
SimCloud version 1.0: a simple diagnostic cloud scheme for idealized climate models
Sensitivity of precipitation and temperature over the Mount Kenya area to physics parameterization options in a high-resolution model simulation performed with WRFV3.8.1
The GPU version of LASG/IAP Climate System Ocean Model version 3 (LICOM3) under the heterogeneous-compute interface for portability (HIP) framework and its large-scale application
Developing a common, flexible and efficient framework for weakly coupled ensemble data assimilation based on C-Coupler2.0
JULES-CN: a coupled terrestrial carbon–nitrogen scheme (JULES vn5.1)
Ensemble prediction using a new dataset of ECMWF initial states – OpenEnsemble 1.0
Global evaluation of the nutrient-enabled version of the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CNP v1.2 (r5986)
Quantifying and attributing time step sensitivities in present-day climate simulations conducted with EAMv1
A Parameterization of Sub-grid Topographical Effects on Solar Radiation in the E3SM Land Model (Version 1.0): Implementation and Evaluation Over the Tibetan Plateau
A process-based evaluation of the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research Model (ICAR) 1.0.1
Robin S. Smith, Steve George, and Jonathan M. Gregory
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5769–5787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5769-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5769-2021, 2021
Short summary
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Many of the complex computer models used to study the physics of the natural world treat ice sheets as fixed and unchanging, capable of only simple interactions with the rest of the climate. This is partly because it is technically very difficult to usefully do anything more realistic. We have adapted a climate model so it can be joined together with a dynamical model of the Greenland ice sheet. This gives us a powerful tool to help us better understand how ice sheets and the climate interact.
Twan van Noije, Tommi Bergman, Philippe Le Sager, Declan O'Donnell, Risto Makkonen, María Gonçalves-Ageitos, Ralf Döscher, Uwe Fladrich, Jost von Hardenberg, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Hannele Korhonen, Anton Laakso, Stelios Myriokefalitakis, Pirkka Ollinaho, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Thomas Reerink, Roland Schrödner, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5637–5668, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5637-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5637-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper documents the global climate model EC-Earth3-AerChem, one of the members of the EC-Earth3 family of models participating in CMIP6. We give an overview of the model and describe in detail how it differs from its predecessor and the other EC-Earth3 configurations. The model's performance is characterized using coupled simulations conducted for CMIP6. The model has an effective equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3.9 °C and a transient climate response of 2.1 °C.
Paolo Pelucchi, David Neubauer, and Ulrike Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5413–5434, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5413-2021, 2021
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Stratocumulus are thin clouds whose cloud cover is underestimated in climate models partly due to overly low vertical resolution. We develop a scheme that locally refines the vertical grid based on a physical constraint for the cloud top. Global simulations show that the scheme, implemented only in the radiation routine, can increase stratocumulus cloud cover. However, this effect is poorly propagated to the simulated cloud cover. The scheme's limitations and possible ways forward are discussed.
John G. Virgin, Christopher G. Fletcher, Jason N. S. Cole, Knut von Salzen, and Toni Mitovski
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5355–5372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5355-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5355-2021, 2021
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Equilibrium climate sensitivity, or the amount of warming the Earth would exhibit a result of a doubling of atmospheric CO2, is a common metric used in assessments of climate models. Here, we compare climate sensitivity between two versions of the Canadian Earth System Model. We find the newest iteration of the model (version 5) to have higher climate sensitivity due to reductions in low-level clouds, which reflect radiation and cool the planet, as the surface warms.
Matthias Mengel, Simon Treu, Stefan Lange, and Katja Frieler
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5269–5284, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5269-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5269-2021, 2021
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To identify the impacts of historical climate change it is necessary to separate the effect of the different impact drivers. To address this, one needs to compare historical impacts to a counterfactual world with impacts that would have been without climate change. We here present an approach that produces counterfactual climate data and can be used in climate impact models to simulate counterfactual impacts. We make these data available through the ISIMIP project.
Yixiong Lu, Tongwen Wu, Yubin Li, and Ben Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5183–5204, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5183-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5183-2021, 2021
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The spurious precipitation in the tropical southeastern Pacific and southern Atlantic is one of the most prominent systematic biases in coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. This study significantly promotes the marine stratus simulation and largely alleviates the excessive precipitation biases through improving parameterizations of boundary-layer turbulence and shallow convection, providing an effective solution to the long-standing bias in the tropical precipitation simulation.
Silje Lund Sørland, Roman Brogli, Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Emmanuele Russo, Jonas Van de Walle, Bodo Ahrens, Ivonne Anders, Edoardo Bucchignani, Edouard L. Davin, Marie-Estelle Demory, Alessandro Dosio, Hendrik Feldmann, Barbara Früh, Beate Geyer, Klaus Keuler, Donghyun Lee, Delei Li, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Seung-Ki Min, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Burkhardt Rockel, Christoph Schär, Christian Steger, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5125–5154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, 2021
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We review the contribution from the CLM-Community to regional climate projections following the CORDEX framework over Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. How the model configuration, horizontal and vertical resolutions, and choice of driving data influence the model results for the five domains is assessed, with the purpose of aiding the planning and design of regional climate simulations in the future.
Paul A. Ullrich, Colin M. Zarzycki, Elizabeth E. McClenny, Marielle C. Pinheiro, Alyssa M. Stansfield, and Kevin A. Reed
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5023–5048, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5023-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5023-2021, 2021
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TempestExtremes (TE) is a multifaceted framework for feature detection, tracking, and scientific analysis of regional or global Earth system datasets. Version 2.1 of TE now provides extensive support for nodal and areal features. This paper describes the algorithms that have been added to the TE framework since version 1.0 and gives several examples of how these can be combined to produce composite algorithms for evaluating and understanding atmospheric features.
Tobias Peter Bauer, Peter Holtermann, Bernd Heinold, Hagen Radtke, Oswald Knoth, and Knut Klingbeil
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4843–4863, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4843-2021, 2021
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We present the coupled atmosphere–ocean model system ICONGETM. The added value and potential of using the latest coupling technologies are discussed in detail. An exchange grid handles the different coastlines from the unstructured atmosphere and the structured ocean grids. Due to a high level of automated processing, ICONGETM requires only minimal user input. The application to a coastal upwelling scenario demonstrates significantly improved model results compared to uncoupled simulations.
Dawn L. Woodard, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Ben Kravitz, Corinne Hartin, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4751–4767, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021, 2021
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We have added a representation of the permafrost carbon feedback to the simple, open-source global carbon–climate model Hector and calibrated the results to be consistent with historical data and Earth system model projections. Our results closely match previous work, estimating around 0.2 °C of warming from permafrost this century. This capability will be useful to explore uncertainties in this feedback and for coupling with integrated assessment models for policy and economic analysis.
Klaus Wyser, Torben Koenigk, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Mehdi Pasha Karami, and Tim Kruschke
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4781–4796, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4781-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4781-2021, 2021
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This paper describes the large ensemble done by SMHI with the EC-Earth3 climate model. The ensemble comprises 50 realizations for each of the historical experiments after 1970 and four different future projections for CMIP6. We describe the creation of the initial states for the ensemble and the reduced set of output variables. A first look at the results illustrates the changes in the climate during this century and puts them in relation to the uncertainty from the model's internal variability.
Yidi Xu, Philippe Ciais, Le Yu, Wei Li, Xiuzhi Chen, Haicheng Zhang, Chao Yue, Kasturi Kanniah, Arthur P. Cracknell, and Peng Gong
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4573–4592, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4573-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4573-2021, 2021
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In this study, we implemented the specific morphology, phenology and harvest process of oil palm in the global land surface model ORCHIDEE-MICT. The improved model generally reproduces the same leaf area index, biomass density and life cycle fruit yield as observations. This explicit representation of oil palm in a global land surface model offers a useful tool for understanding the ecological processes of oil palm growth and assessing the environmental impacts of oil palm plantations.
Benjamin A. Toms, Karthik Kashinath, Prabhat, and Da Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4495–4508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4495-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4495-2021, 2021
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We test whether a type of machine learning called neural networks can be used trustfully within the geosciences. We do so by challenging the networks to understand the spatial patterns of a commonly studied geoscientific phenomenon. The neural networks can correctly identify the spatial patterns, which lends confidence that similar networks can be used for more uncertain problems. The results of this study may give geoscientists confidence when using neural networks in their research.
Klaus Klingmüller and Jos Lelieveld
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4429–4441, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4429-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4429-2021, 2021
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Soil moisture is of great importance for weather and climate. We present a machine learning model that produces accurate predictions of satellite-observed surface soil moisture, based on meteorological data from a climate model. It can be used as soil moisture parametrisation in climate models and to produce comprehensive global soil moisture datasets. Moreover, it may motivate similar applications of machine learning in climate science.
Jeremy McGibbon, Noah D. Brenowitz, Mark Cheeseman, Spencer K. Clark, Johann P. S. Dahm, Eddie C. Davis, Oliver D. Elbert, Rhea C. George, Lucas M. Harris, Brian Henn, Anna Kwa, W. Andre Perkins, Oliver Watt-Meyer, Tobias F. Wicky, Christopher S. Bretherton, and Oliver Fuhrer
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4401–4409, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4401-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4401-2021, 2021
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FV3GFS is a weather and climate model written in Fortran. It uses Fortran so that it can run fast, but this makes it hard to add features if you do not (or even if you do) know Fortran. We have written a Python interface to FV3GFS that lets you import the Fortran model as a Python package. We show examples of how this is used to write
modelscripts, which reproduce or build on what the Fortran model can do. You could do this same wrapping for any compiled model, not just FV3GFS.
Alexander Pasternack, Jens Grieger, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4335–4355, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4335-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4335-2021, 2021
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Decadal climate ensemble forecasts are increasingly being used to guide adaptation measures. To ensure the applicability of these probabilistic predictions, inherent systematic errors of the prediction system must be adjusted. Since it is not clear which statistical model is optimal for this purpose, we propose a recalibration strategy with a systematic model selection based on non-homogeneous boosting for identifying the most relevant features for both ensemble mean and ensemble spread.
Daniel J. Lunt, Deepak Chandan, Alan M. Haywood, George M. Lunt, Jonathan C. Rougier, Ulrich Salzmann, Gavin A. Schmidt, and Paul J. Valdes
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4307–4317, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4307-2021, 2021
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Often in science we carry out experiments with computers in which several factors are explored, for example, in the field of climate science, how the factors of greenhouse gases, ice, and vegetation affect temperature. We can explore the relative importance of these factors by
swapping in and outdifferent values of these factors, and can also carry out experiments with many different combinations of these factors. This paper discusses how best to analyse the results from such experiments.
Markus Adloff, Andy Ridgwell, Fanny M. Monteiro, Ian J. Parkinson, Alexander J. Dickson, Philip A. E. Pogge von Strandmann, Matthew S. Fantle, and Sarah E. Greene
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4187–4223, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4187-2021, 2021
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We present the first representation of the trace metals Sr, Os, Li and Ca in a 3D Earth system model (cGENIE). The simulation of marine metal sources (weathering, hydrothermal input) and sinks (deposition) reproduces the observed concentrations and isotopic homogeneity of these metals in the modern ocean. With these new tracers, cGENIE can be used to test hypotheses linking these metal cycles and the cycling of other elements like O and C and simulate their dynamic response to external forcing.
Alessandro Anav, Adriana Carillo, Massimiliano Palma, Maria Vittoria Struglia, Ufuk Utku Turuncoglu, and Gianmaria Sannino
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4159–4185, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4159-2021, 2021
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The Mediterranean Basin is a complex region, characterized by the presence of pronounced topography and a complex land–sea distribution including a considerable number of islands and straits; these features generate strong local atmosphere–sea interactions.
Regional Earth system models have been developed and used to study both present and future Mediterranean climate systems. The main aims of this paper are to present and evaluate the newly developed regional Earth system model ENEA-REG.
Markus Drüke, Werner von Bloh, Stefan Petri, Boris Sakschewski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Matthias Forkel, Willem Huiskamp, Georg Feulner, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4117–4141, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4117-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4117-2021, 2021
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In this study, we couple the well-established and comprehensively validated state-of-the-art dynamic LPJmL5 global vegetation model to the CM2Mc coupled climate model (CM2Mc-LPJmL v.1.0). Several improvements to LPJmL5 were implemented to allow a fully functional biophysical coupling. The new climate model is able to capture important biospheric processes, including fire, mortality, permafrost, hydrological cycling and the the impacts of managed land (crop growth and irrigation).
Dirk Barbi, Nadine Wieters, Paul Gierz, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Deniz Ural, Fatemeh Chegini, Sara Khosravi, and Luisa Cristini
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4051–4067, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4051-2021, 2021
Cléa Denamiel, Petra Pranić, Damir Ivanković, Iva Tojčić, and Ivica Vilibić
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3995–4017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3995-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3995-2021, 2021
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The atmospheric results of the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) climate simulation (1987–2017) are evaluated against available observational datasets in the Adriatic region. Generally, the AdriSC model performs better than regional climate models that have resolutions that are 4 times more coarse, except concerning summer temperatures, which are systematically underestimated. High-resolution climate models may thus provide new insights about the local impacts of global warming in the Adriatic.
Petra Pranić, Cléa Denamiel, and Ivica Vilibić
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-155, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The Adriatic Sea and Coast model was developed due to the need for higher-resolution climate models and longer-term simulations to capture the coastal atmospheric and ocean processes at climate scales in the Adriatic Sea. The ocean results of a 31-year long simulation were compared to the observational data. The evaluation revealed that the model is capable to reproduce the observed physical properties with good accuracy and can be further used to study the dynamics of the Adriatic-Ionian basin.
Guy Munhoven
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3603–3631, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3603-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3603-2021, 2021
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Sea-floor sediments play an important role in biogeochemical cycling of elements (e.g. carbon, silicon, nutrients) in the ocean. Realistic sediment modules are, however, not yet commonly used in global ocean biogeochemical models. Here we present MEDUSA, a model of the processes taking place in the surface sea-floor sediments which control the interaction between the sediments and the ocean. MEDUSA can be configured to meet the exact needs of any given ocean biogeochemical model.
Max Kulinich, Yanan Fan, Spiridon Penev, Jason P. Evans, and Roman Olson
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3539–3551, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3539-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3539-2021, 2021
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We present a novel stochastic approach based on Markov chains to estimate climate model weights of multi-model ensemble means. This approach showed improved performance (better correlation with observations) over existing alternatives during cross-validation and model-as-truth tests. The results of this comparative analysis should serve to motivate further studies in applications of Markov chain and other nonlinear methods to find optimal model weights for constructing ensemble means.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Timofei Sukhodolov, Tatiana Egorova, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, Carlos A. Cuevas, Rafael P. Fernandez, Tomás Sherwen, Rainer Volkamer, Theodore K. Koenig, Tanguy Giroud, and Thomas Peter
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-107, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-107, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Here, we present the iodine chemistry module in the SOCOL-AERv2 model. The obtained iodine distribution showed a good agreement when validated against other simulations and available observations. We also estimated the contribution of iodine to ozone loss in the case of present-day iodine emissions, the sensitivity of ozone to doubled iodine emissions, and when considering only organic or inorganic iodine sources. The new model can be used as a tool to further studies of iodine effect on ozone.
Jens Pfafferott, Sascha Rißmann, Matthias Sühring, Farah Kanani-Sühring, and Björn Maronga
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3511–3519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3511-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3511-2021, 2021
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The building model is integrated via an urban surface model into the urban climate model.
There is a strong interaction between the built environment and the urban climate.
According to the building energy concept, the energy demand results in a waste heat; this is directly transferred to the urban environment.
The impact of buildings on the urban climate is defined by different physical building parameters with different technical facilities for ventilation, heating and cooling.
Anna B. Harper, Karina E. Williams, Patrick C. McGuire, Maria Carolina Duran Rojas, Debbie Hemming, Anne Verhoef, Chris Huntingford, Lucy Rowland, Toby Marthews, Cleiton Breder Eller, Camilla Mathison, Rodolfo L. B. Nobrega, Nicola Gedney, Pier Luigi Vidale, Fred Otu-Larbi, Divya Pandey, Sebastien Garrigues, Azin Wright, Darren Slevin, Martin G. De Kauwe, Eleanor Blyth, Jonas Ardö, Andrew Black, Damien Bonal, Nina Buchmann, Benoit Burban, Kathrin Fuchs, Agnès de Grandcourt, Ivan Mammarella, Lutz Merbold, Leonardo Montagnani, Yann Nouvellon, Natalia Restrepo-Coupe, and Georg Wohlfahrt
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3269–3294, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3269-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3269-2021, 2021
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We evaluated 10 representations of soil moisture stress in the JULES land surface model against site observations of GPP and latent heat flux. Increasing the soil depth and plant access to deep soil moisture improved many aspects of the simulations, and we recommend these settings in future work using JULES. In addition, using soil matric potential presents the opportunity to include parameters specific to plant functional type to further improve modeled fluxes.
Katja Weigel, Lisa Bock, Bettina K. Gier, Axel Lauer, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Kemisola Adeniyi, Bouwe Andela, Enrico Arnone, Peter Berg, Louis-Philippe Caron, Irene Cionni, Susanna Corti, Niels Drost, Alasdair Hunter, Llorenç Lledó, Christian Wilhelm Mohr, Aytaç Paçal, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Valeriu Predoi, Marit Sandstad, Jana Sillmann, Andreas Sterl, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Jost von Hardenberg, and Veronika Eyring
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3159–3184, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3159-2021, 2021
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This work presents new diagnostics for the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 on the hydrological cycle, extreme events, impact assessment, regional evaluations, and ensemble member selection. The ESMValTool v2.0 diagnostics are developed by a large community of scientists aiming to facilitate the evaluation and comparison of Earth system models (ESMs) with a focus on the ESMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).
Jun'ya Takakura, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Naota Hanasaki, Tomoko Hasegawa, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Yasushi Honda, Toshichika Iizumi, Chan Park, Makoto Tamura, and Yasuaki Hijioka
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3121–3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3121-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3121-2021, 2021
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To simplify calculating economic impacts of climate change, statistical methods called emulators are developed and evaluated. There are trade-offs between model complexity and emulation performance. Aggregated economic impacts can be approximated by relatively simple emulators, but complex emulators are necessary to accommodate finer-scale economic impacts.
Hao-Jhe Hong and Thomas Reichler
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-149, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-149, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The Arctic wintertime circulation of the stratosphere has pronounced impacts on the troposphere and surface climate. Changes in the stratospheric circulation can lead to either increases or decreases in Arctic ozone. Understanding the interactions between ozone and the circulation will have the benefit of model prediction for the climate. This study introduces an economical and fast simplified model that represents the realistic distribution of ozone and its interaction with the circulation.
Meng-Zhuo Zhang, Zhongfeng Xu, Ying Han, and Weidong Guo
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3079–3094, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3079-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3079-2021, 2021
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The Multivariable Integrated Evaluation Tool (MVIETool) is a simple-to-use and straightforward tool designed for evaluation and intercomparison of climate models in terms of vector fields or multiple fields. The tool incorporates some new improvements in vector field evaluation (VFE) and multivariable integrated evaluation (MVIE) methods, which are introduced in this paper.
Sam J. Silva, Po-Lun Ma, Joseph C. Hardin, and Daniel Rothenberg
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3067–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3067-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3067-2021, 2021
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The activation of aerosol into cloud droplets is an important but uncertain process in the Earth system. The physical and chemical interactions that govern this process are too computationally expensive to explicitly resolve in modern Earth system models. Here, we demonstrate how hybrid machine learning approaches can provide a potential path forward, enabling the representation of the more detailed physics and chemistry at a reduced computational cost while still retaining physical information.
Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, William J. Merryfield, George J. Boer, Viatsheslav V. Kharin, Woo-Sung Lee, Christian Seiler, and James R. Christian
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-1, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-1, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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CanESM5 decadal predictions started from observed climate states represent the observed evolution of upper ocean temperatures, surface climate, and the carbon cycle better than ones not started from observed climate states for several years into the forecast. This is due both to better representing climate internal variability, and to corrections of the model response to external forcing including changes in GHG emissions and aerosols.
Nicholas J. Leach, Stuart Jenkins, Zebedee Nicholls, Christopher J. Smith, John Lynch, Michelle Cain, Tristram Walsh, Bill Wu, Junichi Tsutsui, and Myles R. Allen
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3007–3036, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3007-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3007-2021, 2021
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This paper presents an update of the FaIR simple climate model, which can estimate the impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions on the global climate. This update aims to significantly increase the structural simplicity of the model, making it more understandable and transparent. This simplicity allows it to be implemented in a wide range of environments, including Excel. We suggest that it could be used widely in academia, corporate research, and education.
Tongwen Wu, Rucong Yu, Yixiong Lu, Weihua Jie, Yongjie Fang, Jie Zhang, Li Zhang, Xiaoge Xin, Laurent Li, Zaizhi Wang, Yiming Liu, Fang Zhang, Fanghua Wu, Min Chu, Jianglong Li, Weiping Li, Yanwu Zhang, Xueli Shi, Wenyan Zhou, Junchen Yao, Xiangwen Liu, He Zhao, Jinghui Yan, Min Wei, Wei Xue, Anning Huang, Yaocun Zhang, Yu Zhang, Qi Shu, and Aixue Hu
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2977–3006, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2977-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2977-2021, 2021
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This paper presents the high-resolution version of the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) Climate System Model, BCC-CSM2-HR, and describes its climate simulation performance including the atmospheric temperature and wind; precipitation; and the tropical climate phenomena such as TC, MJO, QBO, and ENSO. BCC-CSM2-HR is our model version contributing to the HighResMIP. We focused on its updates and differential characteristics from its predecessor, the medium-resolution version BCC-CSM2-MR.
Olivier Marti, Sébastien Nguyen, Pascale Braconnot, Sophie Valcke, Florian Lemarié, and Eric Blayo
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2959–2975, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2959-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2959-2021, 2021
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State-of-the-art Earth system models, like the ones used in CMIP6, suffer from temporal inconsistencies at the ocean–atmosphere interface. In this study, a mathematically consistent iterative Schwarz method is used as a reference. Its tremendous computational cost makes it unusable for production runs, but it allows us to evaluate the error made when using legacy coupling schemes. The impact on the climate at longer timescales of days to decades is not evaluated.
Lynsay Spafford and Andrew Hugh MacDougall
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-150, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-150, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Land biogeochemical cycles influence global climate change. Their influence is examined through complex computer models which account for the interaction of the land, ocean, and atmosphere. Improved models used in the recent round of model intercomparison used inconsistent validation methods to compare simulated land biogeochemistry to datasets. For the next round of model intercomparison we recommend a validation protocol with explicit reference datasets and informative performance metrics.
Steven R. Brus, Phillip J. Wolfram, Luke P. Van Roekel, and Jessica D. Meixner
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2917–2938, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2917-2021, 2021
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Wind-generated waves are an important process in the global climate system. They mediate many interactions between the ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice. Models which describe these waves are computationally expensive and have often been excluded from coupled Earth system models. To address this, we have developed a capability for the WAVEWATCH III model which allows model resolution to be varied globally across the coastal open ocean. This allows for improved accuracy at reduced computing time.
Elisa Ziegler and Kira Rehfeld
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2843–2866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2843-2021, 2021
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Past climate changes are the only record of how the climate responds to changes in conditions on Earth, but simulations with complex climate models are challenging. We extended a simple climate model such that it simulates the development of temperatures over time. In the model, changes in carbon dioxide and ice distribution affect the simulated temperatures the most. The model is very efficient and can therefore be used to examine past climate changes happening over long periods of time.
Qun Liu, Matthew Collins, Penelope Maher, Stephen I. Thomson, and Geoffrey K. Vallis
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2801–2826, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2801-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2801-2021, 2021
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Clouds play an vital role in Earth's energy budget, and even a small change in cloud fields can have a large impact on the climate system. They also bring lots of uncertainties to climate models. Here we implement a simple diagnostic cloud scheme in order to reproduce the general radiative properties of clouds. The scheme can capture some key features of the cloud fraction and cloud radiative properties and thus provide a useful tool to explore unsolved problems relating to clouds.
Martina Messmer, Santos J. González-Rojí, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2691–2711, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, 2021
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Sensitivity experiments with the WRF model are run to find an optimal parameterization setup for precipitation around Mount Kenya at a scale that resolves convection (1 km). Precipitation is compared against many weather stations and gridded observational data sets. Both the temporal correlation of precipitation sums and pattern correlations show that fewer nests lead to a more constrained simulation with higher correlation. The Grell–Freitas cumulus scheme obtains the most accurate results.
Pengfei Wang, Jinrong Jiang, Pengfei Lin, Mengrong Ding, Junlin Wei, Feng Zhang, Lian Zhao, Yiwen Li, Zipeng Yu, Weipeng Zheng, Yongqiang Yu, Xuebin Chi, and Hailong Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2781–2799, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2781-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2781-2021, 2021
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Global ocean general circulation models are a fundamental tool for oceanography research, ocean forecast, and climate change research. The increasing resolution will greatly improve simulations of the models, but it also demands much more computing resources. In this study, we have ported an ocean general circulation model to a heterogeneous computing system and have developed a 3–5 km model version. A 14-year integration has been conducted and the preliminary results have been evaluated.
Chao Sun, Li Liu, Ruizhe Li, Xinzhu Yu, Hao Yu, Biao Zhao, Guansuo Wang, Juanjuan Liu, Fangli Qiao, and Bin Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2635–2657, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2635-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2635-2021, 2021
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Data assimilation (DA) provides better initial states of model runs by combining observations and models. This work focuses on the technical challenges in developing a coupled ensemble-based DA system and proposes a new DA framework DAFCC1 based on C-Coupler2. DAFCC1 enables users to conveniently integrate a DA method into a model with automatic and efficient data exchanges. A sample DA system that combines GSI/EnKF and FIO-AOW demonstrates the effectiveness of DAFCC1.
Andrew J. Wiltshire, Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris D. Jones, Peter M. Cox, Taraka Davies-Barnard, Pierre Friedlingstein, Anna B. Harper, Spencer Liddicoat, Stephen Sitch, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2161–2186, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, 2021
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Limited nitrogen availbility can restrict the growth of plants and their ability to assimilate carbon. It is important to include the impact of this process on the global land carbon cycle. This paper presents a model of the coupled land carbon and nitrogen cycle, which is included within the UK Earth System model to improve projections of climate change and impacts on ecosystems.
Pirkka Ollinaho, Glenn D. Carver, Simon T. K. Lang, Lauri Tuppi, Madeleine Ekblom, and Heikki Järvinen
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2143–2160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2143-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2143-2021, 2021
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OpenEnsemble 1.0 is a novel dataset that aims to open ensemble or probabilistic weather forecasting research up to the academic community. The dataset contains atmospheric states that are required for running model forecasts of atmospheric evolution. Our capacity to observe the atmosphere is limited; thus, a single reconstruction of the atmospheric state contains some errors. Our dataset provides sets of 50 slightly different atmospheric states so that these errors can be taken into account.
Yan Sun, Daniel S. Goll, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Betrand Guenet, Julian Helfenstein, Yuanyuan Huang, Ronny Lauerwald, Fabienne Maignan, Victoria Naipal, Yilong Wang, Hui Yang, and Haicheng Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1987–2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1987-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1987-2021, 2021
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We evaluated the performance of the nutrient-enabled version of the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CNP v1.2 against remote sensing, ground-based measurement networks and ecological databases. The simulated carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes among different spatial scales are generally in good agreement with data-driven estimates. However, the recent carbon sink in the Northern Hemisphere is substantially underestimated. Potential causes and model development priorities are discussed.
Hui Wan, Shixuan Zhang, Philip J. Rasch, Vincent E. Larson, Xubin Zeng, and Huiping Yan
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1921–1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1921-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1921-2021, 2021
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Numerical models used in weather and climate research and prediction unavoidably contain numerical errors resulting from temporal discretization, and the impact of such errors can be substantial. Complex process interactions often make it difficult to pinpoint the exact sources of such errors. This study uses a series of sensitivity experiments to identify components in a global atmosphere model that are responsible for time step sensitivities in various cloud regimes.
Dalei Hao, Gautam Bisht, Yu Gu, Wei‐Liang Lee, Kuo-Nan Liou, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-55, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-55, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Topography exerts significant influences on the incoming solar radiation at the land surface. This study incorporated a well-validated sub-grid topographic parameterization in E3SM land model (ELM) version 1.0. The results demonstrates that sub-grid topography has non-negligible effects on surface energy budget, snow cover, and surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau and the ELM simulations are sensitive to spatial scales.
Johannes Horak, Marlis Hofer, Ethan Gutmann, Alexander Gohm, and Mathias W. Rotach
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1657–1680, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1657-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1657-2021, 2021
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This process-based evaluation of the atmospheric model ICAR is conducted to derive recommendations to increase the likelihood of its results being correct for the right reasons. We conclude that a different diagnosis of the atmospheric background state is necessary, as well as a model top at an elevation of at least 10 km. Alternative boundary conditions at the top were not found to be effective in reducing this model top elevation. The results have wide implications for future ICAR studies.
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Short summary
This study provides the future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations under the new set of so-called SSP scenarios (the successors of the IPCC SRES and previous representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios). The projected CO2 concentrations range from 350 ppm for low-emission scenarios by 2150 to more than 2000 ppm under the high-emission scenarios. We also provide concentrations, latitudinal gradients, and seasonality for most of the other 42 considered GHGs.
This study provides the future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations under the new set of...
