Articles | Volume 9, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3993-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3993-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Model experiment description paper
| 
09 Nov 2016
Model experiment description paper |
| 09 Nov 2016
The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigation of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing
Jonathan M. Gregory
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
NCAS, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Nathaelle Bouttes
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Stephen M. Griffies
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, USA
Helmuth Haak
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
William J. Hurlin
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, USA
Johann Jungclaus
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Maxwell Kelley
Goddard Institute for Space Sciences, Columbia University,
New York, USA
Warren G. Lee
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis,
Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
John Marshall
Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA
Anastasia Romanou
Goddard Institute for Space Sciences, Columbia University,
New York, USA
Oleg A. Saenko
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis,
Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
Detlef Stammer
Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Germany
Michael Winton
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, USA
Related authors
Peter U. Clark, Jeremy D. Shakun, Yair Rosenthal, Chenyu Zhu, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jonathan M. Gregory, Peter Köhler, Zhengyu Liu, and Daniel P. Schrag
Clim. Past, 21, 973–1000, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-973-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-973-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstruct changes in mean ocean temperature (ΔMOT) over the last 4.5 Myr. We find that the ratio of ΔMOT to changes in global mean sea surface temperature was around 0.5 before the Middle Pleistocene transition but was 1 thereafter. We subtract our ΔMOT reconstruction from the global δ18O record to derive the δ18O of seawater. Finally, we develop a theoretical understanding of why the ratio of ΔMOT / ΔGMSST changed over the Plio-Pleistocene.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Charlotte Lang, Niall Gandy, Jonathan Gregory, Tamsin L. Edwards, Oliver Pollard, and Robin S. Smith
Clim. Past, 20, 1489–1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble simulations of the climate and ice sheets of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are performed with a new coupled climate–ice sheet model. Results show a strong sensitivity of the North American ice sheet to the albedo scheme, while the Greenland ice sheet appeared more sensitive to basal sliding schemes. Our result implies a potential connection between the North American ice sheet at the LGM and the future Greenland ice sheet through the albedo scheme.
Robert E. Kopp, Gregory G. Garner, Tim H. J. Hermans, Shantenu Jha, Praveen Kumar, Alexander Reedy, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Matteo Turilli, Tamsin L. Edwards, Jonathan M. Gregory, George Koubbe, Anders Levermann, Andre Merzky, Sophie Nowicki, Matthew D. Palmer, and Chris Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7461–7489, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future sea-level rise projections exhibit multiple forms of uncertainty, all of which must be considered by scientific assessments intended to inform decision-making. The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) is a new software package intended to support assessments of global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level rise. An early version of FACTS supported the development of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report sea-level projections.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Antony Siahaan, Robin S. Smith, Paul R. Holland, Adrian Jenkins, Jonathan M. Gregory, Victoria Lee, Pierre Mathiot, Antony J. Payne, Jeff K. Ridley, and Colin G. Jones
The Cryosphere, 16, 4053–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Under the low-greenhouse-gas SSP1–1.9 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario, the ice sheet remains stable over the 21st century. Under the strong-greenhouse-gas SSP5–8.5 scenario, the model predicts strong increases in melting of large ice shelves and snow accumulation on the surface. The dominance of accumulation leads to a sea level fall at the end of the century.
Robin S. Smith, Steve George, and Jonathan M. Gregory
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5769–5787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5769-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5769-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Many of the complex computer models used to study the physics of the natural world treat ice sheets as fixed and unchanging, capable of only simple interactions with the rest of the climate. This is partly because it is technically very difficult to usefully do anything more realistic. We have adapted a climate model so it can be joined together with a dynamical model of the Greenland ice sheet. This gives us a powerful tool to help us better understand how ice sheets and the climate interact.
Wolfgang A. Müller, Stephan Lorenz, Trang V. Pham, Andrea Schneidereit, Renate Brokopf, Victor Brovkin, Nils Brüggemann, Fatemeh Chegini, Dietmar Dommenget, Kristina Fröhlich, Barbara Früh, Veronika Gayler, Helmuth Haak, Stefan Hagemann, Moritz Hanke, Tatiana Ilyina, Johann Jungclaus, Martin Köhler, Peter Korn, Luis Kornblueh, Clarissa A. Kroll, Julian Krüger, Karel Castro-Morales, Ulrike Niemeier, Holger Pohlmann, Iuliia Polkova, Roland Potthast, Thomas Riddick, Manuel Schlund, Tobias Stacke, Roland Wirth, Dakuan Yu, and Jochem Marotzke
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 9385–9415, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9385-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9385-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a new Earth System model configuration framed into the ICON architecture, which provides the baseline for the next generation of climate predictions and projections (hereafter ICON XPP). Two resolutions of ICON XPP are presented that show high runtime performances making it suitable to run long integrations and large-ensemble experiments. ICON XPP similarly perform to CMIP6-class of climate models making it a good basis for climate forecasts and projections, and climate research.
Félix García-Pereira, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Nagore Meabe-Yanguas, Philipp de Vrese, Norman Julius Steinert, Johann Jungclaus, and Stephan Lorenz
The Cryosphere, 19, 5959–5981, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5959-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5959-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows that changing the hydrological state of permafrost produces differences of up to 3 °C in the annual ground temperature, 1–2 m in the active layer thickness, and 5 million km2 in the permafrost extent. Including a deeper vertical thermal scheme reduces the extent decline by more than 2 million km2 in the highest radiative emission scenario. This is shown for the first time in fully-coupled experiments with an Earth System Model.
Victor Brovkin, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Noel G. Brizuela, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Charles Koven, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Hongmei Li, Spencer Liddcoat, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, Tilo Ziehn, and Alexander J. Winkler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2021–2034, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2021-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2021-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Idealized experiments with Earth system models provide a basis for understanding the response of the carbon cycle to emissions. We show that most models exhibit a quasi-linear relationship between cumulative carbon uptake on land and in the ocean and hypothesize that this relationship does not depend on emission pathways. We reduce the coupled system to only one differential equation, which represents a powerful simplification of the Earth system dynamics as a function of fossil fuel emissions.
Hans Segura, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Philipp Weiss, Sebastian K. Müller, Thomas Rackow, Junhong Lee, Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Imme Benedict, Matthias Aengenheyster, Razvan Aguridan, Gabriele Arduini, Alexander J. Baker, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Eulàlia Baulenas, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Beyer, Hendryk Bockelmann, Nils Brüggemann, Lukas Brunner, Suvarchal K. Cheedela, Sushant Das, Jasper Denissen, Ian Dragaud, Piotr Dziekan, Madeleine Ekblom, Jan Frederik Engels, Monika Esch, Richard Forbes, Claudia Frauen, Lilli Freischem, Diego García-Maroto, Philipp Geier, Paul Gierz, Álvaro González-Cervera, Katherine Grayson, Matthew Griffith, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Ioan Hadade, Kerstin Haslehner, Shabeh ul Hasson, Jan Hegewald, Lukas Kluft, Aleksei Koldunov, Nikolay Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Shunya Koseki, Sergey Kosukhin, Josh Kousal, Peter Kuma, Arjun U. Kumar, Rumeng Li, Nicolas Maury, Maximilian Meindl, Sebastian Milinski, Kristian Mogensen, Bimochan Niraula, Jakub Nowak, Divya Sri Praturi, Ulrike Proske, Dian Putrasahan, René Redler, David Santuy, Domokos Sármány, Reiner Schnur, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Dorian Spät, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Adrian Tompkins, Alejandro Uribe, Mirco Valentini, Menno Veerman, Aiko Voigt, Sarah Warnau, Fabian Wachsmann, Marta Wacławczyk, Nils Wedi, Karl-Hermann Wieners, Jonathan Wille, Marius Winkler, Yuting Wu, Florian Ziemen, Janos Zimmermann, Frida A.-M. Bender, Dragana Bojovic, Sandrine Bony, Simona Bordoni, Patrice Brehmer, Marcus Dengler, Emanuel Dutra, Saliou Faye, Erich Fischer, Chiel van Heerwaarden, Cathy Hohenegger, Heikki Järvinen, Markus Jochum, Thomas Jung, Johann H. Jungclaus, Noel S. Keenlyside, Daniel Klocke, Heike Konow, Martina Klose, Szymon Malinowski, Olivia Martius, Thorsten Mauritsen, Juan Pedro Mellado, Theresa Mieslinger, Elsa Mohino, Hanna Pawłowska, Karsten Peters-von Gehlen, Abdoulaye Sarré, Pajam Sobhani, Philip Stier, Lauri Tuppi, Pier Luigi Vidale, Irina Sandu, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 7735–7761, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7735-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7735-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Next Generation of Earth Modeling Systems project (nextGEMS) developed two Earth system models that use horizontal grid spacing of 10 km and finer, giving more fidelity to the representation of local phenomena, globally. In its fourth cycle, nextGEMS simulated the Earth System climate over the 2020–2049 period under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Here, we provide an overview of nextGEMS, insights into the model development, and the realism of multi-decadal, kilometer-scale simulations.
Philip David Kennedy, Abhirup Banerjee, Armin Köhl, and Detlef Stammer
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 353–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-353-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work introduces and evaluates two new tandem data assimilation techniques. The first uses two synchronised forward model runs before a single adjoint model run to consistently increase the precision of the parameter estimation. The second uses a lower-resolution model with adjoint equations to drive a higher-resolution target model through data assimilation with no loss in precision compared to data assimilation without tandem methods.
Colin Jones, Isaline Bossert, Donovan P. Dennis, Hazel Jeffery, Chris D. Jones, Torben Koenigk, Sina Loriani, Benjamin Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Manabu Abe, Sebastian Bathiany, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Patrica Cadule, Frederic S. Castruccio, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Andrea Dittus, Jonathan F. Donges, Friederike Fröb, Thomas Frölicher, Goran Georgievski, Chuncheng Guo, Aixue Hu, Peter Lawrence, Paul Lerner, José Licón-Saláiz, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Anastasia Romanou, Elena Shevliakova, Yona Silvy, Didier Swingedouw, Jerry Tjiputra, Jeremy Walton, Andy Wiltshire, Ricarda Winkelmann, Richard Wood, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3604, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new Earth system model experiment protocol to help researchers understand how Earth might respond to positive, zero, and negative carbon emissions. This protocol enables different models to be compared following similar warming and cooling rates. Researchers use the models to explore how the Earth reacts to different climate futures, including the risk of tipping points being exceeded and whether changes can be reversed. The results will support improved long-term climate policy.
Morven Muilwijk, Tore Hattermann, Rebecca L. Beadling, Neil C. Swart, Aleksi Nummelin, Chuncheng Guo, David M. Chandler, Petra Langebroek, Shenjie Zhou, Pierre Dutrieux, Jia-Jia Chen, Christopher Danek, Matthew H. England, Stephen M. Griffies, F. Alexander Haumann, André Jüling, Ombeline Jouet, Qian Li, Torge Martin, John Marshall, Andrew G. Pauling, Ariaan Purich, Zihan Song, Inga J. Smith, Max Thomas, Irene Trombini, Eveline van der Linden, and Xiaoqi Xu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3747, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3747, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic meltwater affects ocean stratification and temperature, which in turn influences the rate of ice shelf melting—a coupling missing in most climate models. We analyze a suite of climate models with added meltwater to explore this feedback in different regions. While meltwater generally enhances ocean warming and melt, in West Antarctica most models simulate coastal cooling, suggesting a negative feedback that could slow future ice loss there.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Lester Kwiatkowski, Elodie Bougeot, Manon Berger, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
Biogeosciences, 22, 4531–4544, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-4531-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-4531-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Coral reefs are under threat due to warming and ocean acidification. It is difficult to project future coral reef production due to uncertainties in climate models, socioeconomic scenarios and coral adaptation to warming. Here we have included a coral reef module within a climate model for the first time to evaluate the range of possible futures. We show that coral reef production decreases in most future scenarios, but in some cases coral reef carbonate production can persist.
Kostas Tsigaridis, Andrew S. Ackerman, Igor Aleinov, Mark A. Chandler, Thomas L. Clune, Christopher M. Colose, Anthony D. Del Genio, Maxwell Kelley, Nancy Y. Kiang, Anthony Leboissetier, Jan P. Perlwitz, Reto A. Ruedy, Gary L. Russell, Linda E. Sohl, Michael J. Way, and Eric T. Wolf
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5825–5871, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5825-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5825-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present the second generation of ROCKE-3D (Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics), a generalized three-dimensional model for use in Solar System and exoplanetary simulations of rocky planet climates. We quantify how the different component choices affect model results and discuss strengths and limitations of using each component, together with how one can select which component to use. ROCKE-3D is publicly available, and tutorial sessions are available for the community, greatly facilitating its use by any interested group.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Rosie A. Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles Koven, Hongmei Li, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew H. MacDougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Isla R. Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5699–5724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how climate models warm in response to simplified carbon emissions trajectories, refining the understanding of climate reversibility and commitment. Metrics are defined for warming response to cumulative emissions and for the cessation of emissions or ramp-down to net-zero and net-negative levels. Results indicate that previous concentration-driven experiments may have overstated the Zero Emissions Commitment due to emissions rates exceeding historical levels.
Takashi Obase, Laurie Menviel, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Tristan Vadsaria, Ruza Ivanovic, Brooke Snoll, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Paul J. Valdes, Lauren Gregoire, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Nathaelle Bouttes, Didier Roche, Fanny Lhardy, Chengfei He, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Zhengyu Liu, and Wing-Le Chan
Clim. Past, 21, 1443–1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1443-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses transient simulations of the last deglaciation performed by six climate models to understand the processes driving high-southern-latitude temperature changes. We find that atmospheric CO2 and AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) changes are the primary drivers of the warming and cooling during the middle stage of the deglaciation. The analysis highlights the model's sensitivity of CO2 and AMOC to meltwater and the meltwater history of temperature changes at high southern latitudes.
Yong-Fei Zhang, Mitchell Bushuk, Michael Winton, William Gregory, Bill Hurlin, Liwei Jia, and Feiyu Lu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2807, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2807, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic sea ice has shifted from its steady increasing trend in the past decades to the recent decline, which attracted attention from the research community. Providing more accurate subseasonal predictions of Antarctic sea ice is critical to manage the accelerating human activities. We demonstrate that by incorporating satellite observations of sea ice concentration with modeling, the subseasonal predictions of Antarctic sea ice can be improved significantly.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Peter U. Clark, Jeremy D. Shakun, Yair Rosenthal, Chenyu Zhu, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jonathan M. Gregory, Peter Köhler, Zhengyu Liu, and Daniel P. Schrag
Clim. Past, 21, 973–1000, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-973-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-973-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstruct changes in mean ocean temperature (ΔMOT) over the last 4.5 Myr. We find that the ratio of ΔMOT to changes in global mean sea surface temperature was around 0.5 before the Middle Pleistocene transition but was 1 thereafter. We subtract our ΔMOT reconstruction from the global δ18O record to derive the δ18O of seawater. Finally, we develop a theoretical understanding of why the ratio of ΔMOT / ΔGMSST changed over the Plio-Pleistocene.
Swantje Bastin, Aleksei Koldunov, Florian Schütte, Oliver Gutjahr, Marta Agnieszka Mrozowska, Tim Fischer, Radomyra Shevchenko, Arjun Kumar, Nikolay Koldunov, Helmuth Haak, Nils Brüggemann, Rebecca Hummels, Mia Sophie Specht, Johann Jungclaus, Sergey Danilov, Marcus Dengler, and Markus Jochum
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1189–1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1189-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1189-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Vertical mixing is an important process, for example, for tropical sea surface temperature, but cannot be resolved by ocean models. Comparisons of mixing schemes and settings have usually been done with a single model, sometimes yielding conflicting results. We systematically compare two widely used schemes with different parameter settings in two different ocean models and show that most effects from mixing scheme parameter changes are model-dependent.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Evelien J. C. van Dijk, Christoph C. Raible, Michael Sigl, Johann Jungclaus, and Heinz Wanner
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-79, 2024
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
The temperature in the past 4000 years consisted of warm and cold periods, initiated by external forcing. But, these periods are not consistent through time and space. We use climate models and reconstructions to study to which extent the periods are reflected in the European climate. We find that on local scales, the chaotic nature of the climate system is larger than the external forcing. This study shows that these periods have to be used very carefully when studying a local site.
Ulrike Proske, Nils Brüggemann, Jan P. Gärtner, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Dian Putrasahan, and Karl-Hermann Wieners
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3493, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models contain coding mistakes, which may look mundane, but can affect the results of interconnected and complex models in unforeseen ways. We describe a sea ice bug in the coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model ICON, giving an example of visual and concise bug communication. This bug represents a novel species of resolution-dependent bugs. The case illustrates the value of open documentation of bugs in climate models and to encourage our community to adopt a similar approach.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Lester Kwiatkowski, Manon Berger, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6513–6528, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coral reefs are crucial for biodiversity, but they also play a role in the carbon cycle on long time scales of a few thousand years. To better simulate the future and past evolution of coral reefs and their effect on the global carbon cycle, hence on atmospheric CO2 concentration, it is necessary to include coral reefs within a climate model. Here we describe the inclusion of coral reef carbonate production in a carbon–climate model and its validation in comparison to existing modern data.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Charlotte Lang, Niall Gandy, Jonathan Gregory, Tamsin L. Edwards, Oliver Pollard, and Robin S. Smith
Clim. Past, 20, 1489–1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble simulations of the climate and ice sheets of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are performed with a new coupled climate–ice sheet model. Results show a strong sensitivity of the North American ice sheet to the albedo scheme, while the Greenland ice sheet appeared more sensitive to basal sliding schemes. Our result implies a potential connection between the North American ice sheet at the LGM and the future Greenland ice sheet through the albedo scheme.
Félix García-Pereira, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, Norman Julius Steinert, Elena García-Bustamante, Philip de Vrese, Johann Jungclaus, Stephan Lorenz, Stefan Hagemann, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, and Hugo Beltrami
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 547–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-547-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
According to climate model estimates, the land stored 2 % of the system's heat excess in the last decades, while observational studies show it was around 6 %. This difference stems from these models using land components that are too shallow to constrain land heat uptake. Deepening the land component does not affect the surface temperature. This result can be used to derive land heat uptake estimates from different sources, which are much closer to previous observational reports.
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2113–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Brooke Snoll, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Laurie Menviel, Takashi Obase, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Chengfei He, Feng He, Marie Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Juan Muglia, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 789–815, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Geological records show rapid climate change throughout the recent deglaciation. The drivers of these changes are still misunderstood but are often attributed to shifts in the Atlantic Ocean circulation from meltwater input. A cumulative effort to understand these processes prompted numerous simulations of this period. We use these to explain the chain of events and our collective ability to simulate them. The results demonstrate the importance of the meltwater amount used in the simulation.
Abhiraj Bishnoi, Olaf Stein, Catrin I. Meyer, René Redler, Norbert Eicker, Helmuth Haak, Lars Hoffmann, Daniel Klocke, Luis Kornblueh, and Estela Suarez
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 261–273, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We enabled the weather and climate model ICON to run in a high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean setup on the JUWELS supercomputer, where the ocean and the model I/O runs on the CPU Cluster, while the atmosphere is running simultaneously on GPUs. Compared to a simulation performed on CPUs only, our approach reduces energy consumption by 45 % with comparable runtimes. The experiments serve as preparation for efficient computing of kilometer-scale climate models on future supercomputing systems.
Robert E. Kopp, Gregory G. Garner, Tim H. J. Hermans, Shantenu Jha, Praveen Kumar, Alexander Reedy, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Matteo Turilli, Tamsin L. Edwards, Jonathan M. Gregory, George Koubbe, Anders Levermann, Andre Merzky, Sophie Nowicki, Matthew D. Palmer, and Chris Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7461–7489, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future sea-level rise projections exhibit multiple forms of uncertainty, all of which must be considered by scientific assessments intended to inform decision-making. The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) is a new software package intended to support assessments of global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level rise. An early version of FACTS supported the development of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report sea-level projections.
Neil C. Swart, Torge Martin, Rebecca Beadling, Jia-Jia Chen, Christopher Danek, Matthew H. England, Riccardo Farneti, Stephen M. Griffies, Tore Hattermann, Judith Hauck, F. Alexander Haumann, André Jüling, Qian Li, John Marshall, Morven Muilwijk, Andrew G. Pauling, Ariaan Purich, Inga J. Smith, and Max Thomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7289–7309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Current climate models typically do not include full representation of ice sheets. As the climate warms and the ice sheets melt, they add freshwater to the ocean. This freshwater can influence climate change, for example by causing more sea ice to form. In this paper we propose a set of experiments to test the influence of this missing meltwater from Antarctica using multiple different climate models.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Jin-Song von Storch, Eileen Hertwig, Veit Lüschow, Nils Brüggemann, Helmuth Haak, Peter Korn, and Vikram Singh
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5179–5196, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5179-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The new ocean general circulation model ICON-O is developed for running experiments at kilometer scales and beyond. One targeted application is to simulate internal tides crucial for ocean mixing. To ensure their realism, which is difficult to assess, we evaluate the barotropic tides that generate internal tides. We show that ICON-O is able to realistically simulate the major aspects of the observed barotropic tides and discuss the aspects that impact the quality of the simulated tides.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Fanny Lhardy, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier Paillard, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 19, 1027–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The last deglaciation is a period of large warming from 21 000 to 9000 years ago, concomitant with ice sheet melting. Here, we evaluate the impact of different ice sheet reconstructions and different processes linked to their changes. Changes in bathymetry and coastlines, although not often accounted for, cannot be neglected. Ice sheet melt results in freshwater into the ocean with large effects on ocean circulation, but the timing cannot explain the observed abrupt climate changes.
Laura C. Jackson, Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, Katinka Bellomo, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Helmuth Haak, Aixue Hu, Johann Jungclaus, Warren Lee, Virna L. Meccia, Oleg Saenko, Andrew Shao, and Didier Swingedouw
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1975–1995, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has an important impact on the climate. There are theories that freshening of the ocean might cause the AMOC to cross a tipping point (TP) beyond which recovery is difficult; however, it is unclear whether TPs exist in global climate models. Here, we outline a set of experiments designed to explore AMOC tipping points and sensitivity to additional freshwater input as part of the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project (NAHosMIP).
Guokun Lyu, Armin Koehl, Xinrong Wu, Meng Zhou, and Detlef Stammer
Ocean Sci., 19, 305–319, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-305-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Data assimilation techniques are important for combining observations with numerical models. Here, we approximate the adjoint of viscous-plastic dynamics (adjoint-VP) to replace the adjoint of free-drift dynamics (adjoint-FD) for developing an advanced Arctic Ocean and sea ice modeling and adjoint-based assimilation system. We find that adjoint-VP provides a better ocean and sea ice estimation than adjoint-FD, considering the residual errors and adjustments of the atmospheric states.
Evelien van Dijk, Ingar Mørkestøl Gundersen, Anna de Bode, Helge Høeg, Kjetil Loftsgarden, Frode Iversen, Claudia Timmreck, Johann Jungclaus, and Kirstin Krüger
Clim. Past, 19, 357–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-357-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-6th century was one of the coldest periods of the last 2000 years as characterized by great societal changes. Here, we study the effect of the volcanic double event in 536 CE and 540 CE on climate and society in southern Norway. The combined climate and growing degree day models and high-resolution pollen and archaeological records reveal that the northern and western sites are vulnerable to crop failure with possible abandonment of farms, whereas the southeastern site is more resilient.
Cathy Hohenegger, Peter Korn, Leonidas Linardakis, René Redler, Reiner Schnur, Panagiotis Adamidis, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Milad Behravesh, Martin Bergemann, Joachim Biercamp, Hendryk Bockelmann, Renate Brokopf, Nils Brüggemann, Lucas Casaroli, Fatemeh Chegini, George Datseris, Monika Esch, Geet George, Marco Giorgetta, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Moritz Hanke, Tatiana Ilyina, Thomas Jahns, Johann Jungclaus, Marcel Kern, Daniel Klocke, Lukas Kluft, Tobias Kölling, Luis Kornblueh, Sergey Kosukhin, Clarissa Kroll, Junhong Lee, Thorsten Mauritsen, Carolin Mehlmann, Theresa Mieslinger, Ann Kristin Naumann, Laura Paccini, Angel Peinado, Divya Sri Praturi, Dian Putrasahan, Sebastian Rast, Thomas Riddick, Niklas Roeber, Hauke Schmidt, Uwe Schulzweida, Florian Schütte, Hans Segura, Radomyra Shevchenko, Vikram Singh, Mia Specht, Claudia Christine Stephan, Jin-Song von Storch, Raphaela Vogel, Christian Wengel, Marius Winkler, Florian Ziemen, Jochem Marotzke, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 779–811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Models of the Earth system used to understand climate and predict its change typically employ a grid spacing of about 100 km. Yet, many atmospheric and oceanic processes occur on much smaller scales. In this study, we present a new model configuration designed for the simulation of the components of the Earth system and their interactions at kilometer and smaller scales, allowing an explicit representation of the main drivers of the flow of energy and matter by solving the underlying equations.
Ensheng Weng, Igor Aleinov, Ram Singh, Michael J. Puma, Sonali S. McDermid, Nancy Y. Kiang, Maxwell Kelley, Kevin Wilcox, Ray Dybzinski, Caroline E. Farrior, Stephen W. Pacala, and Benjamin I. Cook
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8153–8180, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8153-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8153-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a demographic vegetation model to improve the representation of terrestrial vegetation dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycles in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. The individual-based competition for light and soil resources makes the modeling of eco-evolutionary optimality possible. This model will enable ModelE to simulate long-term biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks between the climate system and land ecosystems at decadal to centurial temporal scales.
Shih-Wei Fang, Claudia Timmreck, Johann Jungclaus, Kirstin Krüger, and Hauke Schmidt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1535–1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1535-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The early 19th century was the coldest period over the past 500 years, when strong tropical volcanic events and a solar minimum coincided. This study quantifies potential surface cooling from the solar and volcanic forcing in the early 19th century with large ensemble simulations, and identifies the regions that their impacts cannot be simply additive. The cooling perspective of Arctic amplification exists in both solar and post-volcano period with the albedo feedback as the main contribution.
Antony Siahaan, Robin S. Smith, Paul R. Holland, Adrian Jenkins, Jonathan M. Gregory, Victoria Lee, Pierre Mathiot, Antony J. Payne, Jeff K. Ridley, and Colin G. Jones
The Cryosphere, 16, 4053–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Under the low-greenhouse-gas SSP1–1.9 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario, the ice sheet remains stable over the 21st century. Under the strong-greenhouse-gas SSP5–8.5 scenario, the model predicts strong increases in melting of large ice shelves and snow accumulation on the surface. The dominance of accumulation leads to a sea level fall at the end of the century.
Gustavo M. Marques, Nora Loose, Elizabeth Yankovsky, Jacob M. Steinberg, Chiung-Yin Chang, Neeraja Bhamidipati, Alistair Adcroft, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Stephen M. Griffies, Robert W. Hallberg, Malte F. Jansen, Hemant Khatri, and Laure Zanna
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6567–6579, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6567-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6567-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present an idealized ocean model configuration and a set of simulations performed using varying horizontal grid spacing. While the model domain is idealized, it resembles important geometric features of the Atlantic and Southern oceans. The simulations described here serve as a framework to effectively study mesoscale eddy dynamics, to investigate the effect of mesoscale eddies on the large-scale dynamics, and to test and evaluate eddy parameterizations.
Evelien van Dijk, Johann Jungclaus, Stephan Lorenz, Claudia Timmreck, and Kirstin Krüger
Clim. Past, 18, 1601–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1601-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A double volcanic eruption in 536 and 540 CE caused one of the coldest decades during the last 2000 years. We analyzed new climate model simulations from that period and found a cooling of up to 2°C and a sea-ice extent up to 200 km further south. Complex interactions between sea ice and ocean circulation lead to a reduction in the northward ocean heat transport, which makes the sea ice extend further south; this in turn leads to a surface cooling up to 20 years after the eruptions.
Gabriel Hes, María F. Sánchez Goñi, and Nathaelle Bouttes
Clim. Past, 18, 1429–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1429-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1429-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Termination V (TV, ~ 404–433 kyr BP) marks a transition in the climate system towards amplified glacial–interglacial cycles. While the associated atmospheric CO2 changes are mostly attributed to the Southern Ocean, little is known about the terrestrial biosphere contribution to the carbon cycle. This study provides the first (model- and pollen-based) reconstruction of global forests highlighting the potential role of temperate and boreal forests in atmospheric CO2 sequestration during TV.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Guokun Lyu, Nuno Serra, Meng Zhou, and Detlef Stammer
Ocean Sci., 18, 51–66, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-51-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-51-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the Arctic sea level variability depending on different timescales and the relation to temperature, salinity and mass changes, identifying key parameters and regions that need to be observed coordinately. The decadal sea level variability reflects salinity changes. But it can only reflect salinity change at periods of greater than 1 year, highlighting the requirement for enhancing in situ hydrographic observations and complicated interpolation methods.
Trevor J. McDougall, Paul M. Barker, Ryan M. Holmes, Rich Pawlowicz, Stephen M. Griffies, and Paul J. Durack
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6445–6466, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6445-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the way that the air–sea heat flux is treated in ocean models means that the model's temperature variable should be interpreted as being Conservative Temperature, irrespective of whether the equation of state used in an ocean model is EOS-80 or TEOS-10.
Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Christophe Dumas, Nathaëlle Bouttes, and Fanny Lhardy
Clim. Past, 17, 2179–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2179-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2179-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we discuss results obtained with a set of coupled ice-sheet–climate model experiments for the last 26 kyrs. The model displays a large sensitivity of the oceanic circulation to the amount of the freshwater flux resulting from ice sheet melting. Ice sheet geometry changes alone are not enough to lead to abrupt climate events, and rapid warming at high latitudes is here only reported during abrupt oceanic circulation recoveries that occurred when accounting for freshwater flux.
Robin S. Smith, Steve George, and Jonathan M. Gregory
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5769–5787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5769-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5769-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Many of the complex computer models used to study the physics of the natural world treat ice sheets as fixed and unchanging, capable of only simple interactions with the rest of the climate. This is partly because it is technically very difficult to usefully do anything more realistic. We have adapted a climate model so it can be joined together with a dynamical model of the Greenland ice sheet. This gives us a powerful tool to help us better understand how ice sheets and the climate interact.
Fanny Lhardy, Nathaëlle Bouttes, Didier M. Roche, Xavier Crosta, Claire Waelbroeck, and Didier Paillard
Clim. Past, 17, 1139–1159, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1139-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1139-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models struggle to simulate a LGM ocean circulation in agreement with paleotracer data. Using a set of simulations, we test the impact of boundary conditions and other modelling choices. Model–data comparisons of sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice cover support an overall cold Southern Ocean, with implications on the AMOC strength. Changes in implemented boundary conditions are not sufficient to simulate a shallower AMOC; other mechanisms to better represent convection are required.
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Chia-Wei Hsu, Jianjun Yin, Stephen M. Griffies, and Raphael Dussin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2471–2502, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2471-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2471-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The new surface forcing from JRA55-do (OMIP II) significantly improved the underestimated sea level trend across the entire Pacific Ocean along 10° N in the simulation forced by CORE (OMIP I). We summarize and list out the reasons for the existing sea level biases across all studied timescales as a reference for improving the sea level simulation in the future. This study on the evaluation and improvement of ocean climate models should be of broad interest to a large modeling community.
Oliver Gutjahr, Nils Brüggemann, Helmuth Haak, Johann H. Jungclaus, Dian A. Putrasahan, Katja Lohmann, and Jin-Song von Storch
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2317–2349, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2317-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2317-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We compare four ocean vertical mixing schemes in 100-year coupled simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) and analyse their model biases. Overall, the mixing schemes modify biases in the ocean interior that vary with region and variable but produce a similar global bias pattern. We therefore cannot classify any scheme as superior but conclude that the chosen mixing scheme may be important for regional biases.
Cited articles
Balaji, V., Taylor, K., Cinquini, L., DeLuca, C., Denvil, S., Elkington, M., Guglielmo, F., Guilyardi, E., Juckes, M., Kharin, S., Lautenschlager, M., Lawrence, B., and Williams, D.: Global Data Infrastructure Requirements for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., in preparation, 2016.
Banks, H. T. and Gregory, J. M.: Mechanisms of ocean heat uptake in a coupled climate model and the implications for tracer based predictions of ocean heat uptake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L07608, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025352, 2006.
Banks, H. T., Stark, S., and Keen, A. B.: The adjustment of the coupled climate model HadGEM1 towards equilibrium and the impact on global climate, J. Climate, 20, 5815–5826, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1688.1, 2007.
Bilbao, R. A. F., Gregory, J. M., and Bouttes, N.: Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density changes for 1993–2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs, Clim. Dynam., 45, 2647–2666, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2499-z, 2015.
Böning, C. W., Dispert, A., Visbeck, M., Rintoul, S. R., and Schwarzkopf, F. U.: The response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to recent climate change, Nat. Geosci., 1, 864–869, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo362, 2008.
Bouttes, N. and Gregory, J. M.: Attribution of the spatial pattern of CO2-forced sea level change to ocean surface flux changes, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 034004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034004, 2014.
Bouttes, N., Gregory, J. M., Kuhlbrodt, T., and Suzuki, T.: The effect of windstress change on future sea level change in the Southern Ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L23602, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL054207, 2012.
Bouttes, N., Gregory, J. M., Kuhlbrodt, T., and Smith, R. S.: The drivers of projected North Atlantic sea level change, Clim. Dynam., 43, 1531–1544, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1973-8, 2014.
Church, J. A., Gregory, J. M., Huybrechts, P., Kuhn, M., Lambeck, K., Nhuan, M. T., Qin, D., and Woodworth, P. L.: Changes in sea level, in: Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P., Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johnson, C. I., 639–693, Cambridge University Press, 2001.
Church, J. A., Clark, P. U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J. M., Jevrejeva, S., Levermann, A., Merrifield, M. A., Milne, G. A., Nerem, R. S., Nunn, P. D., Payne, A. J., Pfeffer, W. T., Stammer, D., and Unnikrishnan, A. S.: Sea Level Change, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.026, 2013.
Clark, P. U., Church, J. A., Gregory, J. M., and Payne, A. J.: Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change, Current Climate Change Reports, 1, 224–246, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0024-4, 2015.
Collins, M., Knutti, R., Arblaster, J. M., Dufresne, J., Fichefet, T., Friedlingstein, P., Gao, X., Gutowski, W. J., Johns, T., Krinner, G., Shongwe, M., Tebaldi, C., Weaver, A. J., and Wehner, M.: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., 1029–1136, Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.024, 2013.
Cubasch, U., Meehl, G. A., Boer, G. J., Stouffer, R. J., Dix, M., Noda, A., Senior, C. A., Raper, S. C. B., and Yap, K. S.: Projections of future climate change, in: Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P., Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johnson, C. I., 525–582, Cambridge University Press, 2001.
Danabasoglu, G.: A comparison of global ocean general circulation model solutions obtained with synchronous and accelerated integration methods, Ocean Model., 7, 323–341, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2003.10.001, 2004.
Delworth, T. L. and Greatbatch, R. J.: Multidecadal thermohaline circulation variability driven by atmospheric flux forcing, J. Climate, 13, 1481–1495, 2000.
Delworth, T. L., Manabe, S., and Stouffer, R. J.: Interdecadal variations of the thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, J. Climate, 6, 1993–2011, 1993.
Dixon, K. W., Delworth, T. L., Spelman, M. J., and Stouffer, R. J.: The influence of transient surface fluxes on North Atlantic overturning in a coupled GCM climate change experiment, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 2749–2752, 1999.
Downes, S. M. and Hogg, A. M.: Southern Ocean circulation and eddy compensation in CMIP5 models, J. Climate, 26, 7198–7220, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00504.1, 2013.
Dunne, J. P., John, J. G., Hallberg, R. W., Griffies, S. M., Shevliakova, E. N., Stouffer, R. J., Krasting, J. P., Sentman, L. A., Milly, P. C. D., Malyshev, S. L., Adcroft, A. J., Cooke, W., Dunne, K. A., Harrison, M. J., Levy, H., Samuels, B. L., Spelman, M., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., Phillips, P. J., and Zadeh, N.: GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon Earth System Models Part I: Physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics, J. Climate, 25, 6646–6665, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00560.1, 2012.
England, M. H., McGregor, S., Spence, P., Meehl, G. A., Timmermann, A., Cai, W., Gupta, A. S., McPhaden, M. J., Purich, A., and Santoso, A.: Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus, Nature Climate Change, 4, 222–227, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2106, 2014.
Exarchou, E., Kuhlbrodt, T., Gregory, J. M., and Smith, R. S.: Ocean heat uptake processes: a model intercomparison, J. Climate, 28, 887–908, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00235.1, 2015.
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
Farneti, R., Delworth, T. L., Rosati, A. J., Griffies, S. M., and Zeng, F.: The role of mesoscale eddies in the rectification of the Southern Ocean response to climate change, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 40, 1539–1557, 2010.
Farneti, R., Downes, S. M., Griffies, S. M., Marsland, S. J., Behrens, E., Bentsen, M., Bi, D., Biastoch, A., Böning, C. W., Bozec, A., Canuto, V. M., Chassignet, E., Danabasoglu, G., Danilov, S., Diansky, N., Drange, H., Fogli, P. G., Gusev, A., Hallberg, R. W., Howard, A., Ilicak, M., Jung, T., Kelley, M., Large, W. G., Leboissetier, A., Long, M., Lu, J., Masinam, S., Mishra, A., Navarra, A., Nurser, A. J. G., Patara, L., Samuels, B. L., Sidorenko, D., Tsujino, H., Uotila, P., Wang, Q., and Yeager, S. G.: An assessment of Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation during 1958–2007 in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations, Ocean Model., 94, 84–120, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.07.009, 2015.
Frankcombe, L. M., Spence, P., Hogg, A. M., England, M. H., and Griffies, S. M.: Sea level changes forced by Southern Ocean winds, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5710–5715, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058104, 2013.
Garuba, O. and Klinger, B.: Ocean heat uptake and interbasin transport of passive and redistributive surface heating, J. Climate, 29, 7507–7527, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0138.1, 2016.
Gent, P. R. and McWilliams, J. C.: Isopycnal mixing in ocean circulation models, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 20, 150–155, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1990)020<0150:IMIOCM>2.0.CO;2, 1990.
Giorgetta, M. A., Jungclaus, J., Reick, C. H., Legutke, S., Bader, J., Boettinger, M., Brovkin, V., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fieg, K., Glushak, K., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Hollweg, H.-D., Ilyina, T., Kinne, S., Kornblueh, L., Matei, D., Mauritsen, T., Mikolajewicz, U., Mueller, W., Notz, D., Pithan, F., Raddatz, T., Rast, S., Redler, R., Roeckner, E., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Segschneider, J., Six, K. D., Stockhause, M., Timmreck, C., Wegner, J., Widmann, H., Wieners, K.-H., Claussen, M., Marotzke, J., and Stevens, B.: Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, J. Adv. Model Earth Syst., 5, 572–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20038, 2013.
Gordon, C., Cooper, C., Senior, C. A., Banks, H., Gregory, J. M., Johns, T. C., Mitchell, J. F. B., and Wood, R. A.: The Simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments, Clim. Dynam., 16, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050010, 2000.
Gregory, J. M.: Vertical heat transports in the ocean and their effect on time-dependent climate change, Clim. Dynam., 16, 501–515, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820000059, 2000.
Gregory, J. M. and Mitchell, J. F. B.: The climate response to CO2 of the Hadley Centre coupled AOGCM with and without flux adjustment, Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 1943–1946, https://doi.org/10.1029/97GL01930, 1997.
Gregory, J. M., Church, J. A., Boer, G. J., Dixon, K. W., Flato, G. M., Jackett, D. R., Lowe, J. A., O'Farrell, S. P., Roeckner, E., Russell, G. L., Stouffer, R. J., and Winton, M.: Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100, Clim. Dynam., 18, 225–240, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820100180, 2001.
Gregory, J. M., Dixon, K. W., Stouffer, R. J., Weaver, A. J., Driesschaert, E., Eby, M., Fichefet, T., Hasumi, H., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J. H., Kamenkovich, I. V., Levermann, A., Montoya, M., Murakami, S., Nawrath, S., Oka, A., Sokolov, A. P., and Thorpe, R. B.: A model intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L12703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023209, 2005.
Griffies, S. and Tziperman, E.: A linear thermohaline oscillator driven by stochastic atmospheric forcing, J. Climate, 8, 2440–2453, 1995.
Griffies, S. M.: The Gent-McWilliams skew-flux, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 28, 831–841, 1998.
Griffies, S. M. and Greatbatch, R. J.: Physical processes that impact the evolution of global mean sea level in ocean climate models, Ocean Model., 51, 37–72, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.04.003, 2012.
Griffies, S. M., Yin, J., Durack, P. J., Goddard, P., Bates, S. C., Behrens, E., Bentsen, M., Bi, D., Biastoch, A., Boening, C. W., Bozec, A., Chassignet, E., Danabasoglu, G., Danilov, S., Domingues, C. M., Drange, H., Farneti, R., Fernandez, E., Greatbatch, R. J., Holland, D. M., Ilicak, M., Large, W. G., Lorbacher, K., Lu, J., Marsland, S. J., Mishra, A., Nurser, A. J. G., Salas y Melia, D., Palter, J. B., Samuels, B. L., Schroeter, J., Schwarzkopf, F. U., Sidorenko, D., Treguier, A. M., Tseng, Y.-H., Tsujino, H., Uotila, P., Valcke, S., Voldoire, A., Wang, Q., Winton, M., and Zhang, X.: An assessment of global and regional sea level for years 1993–2007 in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations, Ocean Model., 78, 35–89, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.03.004, 2014.
Griffies, S. M., Winton, M., Anderson, W. G., Benson, R., Delworth, T. L., Dufour, C., Dunne, J. P., Goddard, P., Morrison, A. K., Rosati, A., Wittenberg, A. T., and Yin, J.: Impacts on ocean heat from transient mesoscale eddies in a hierarchy of climate models, J. Climate, 28, 952–977, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00353.1, 2015.
Griffies, S. M., Danabasoglu, G., Durack, P. J., Adcroft, A. J., Balaji, V., Böning, C. W., Chassignet, E. P., Curchitser, E., Deshayes, J., Drange, H., Fox-Kemper, B., Gleckler, P. J., Gregory, J. M., Haak, H., Hallberg, R. W., Heimbach, P., Hewitt, H. T., Holland, D. M., Ilyina, T., Jungclaus, J. H., Komuro, Y., Krasting, J. P., Large, W. G., Marsland, S. J., Masina, S., McDougall, T. J., Nurser, A. J. G., Orr, J. C., Pirani, A., Qiao, F., Stouffer, R. J., Taylor, K. E., Treguier, A. M., Tsujino, H., Uotila, P., Valdivieso, M., Wang, Q., Winton, M., and Yeager, S. G.: OMIP contribution to CMIP6: experimental and diagnostic protocol for the physical component of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3231–3296, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016, 2016.
Hallberg, R., Adcroft, A., Dunne, J. P., Krasting, J. P., and Stouffer, R. J.: Sensitivity of twenty-first-century global-mean steric sea level rise to ocean model formulation, J. Climate, 26, 2947–2956, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00506.1, 2013.
Hallberg, R. W. and Gnanadesikan, A.: On the role of eddies in determining the structure and response of the wind-driven Southern Hemisphere overturning: Results from the Modeling Eddies in the Southern Ocean (MESO) project, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 36, 2232–2252, 2006.
Huang, B. Y., Stone, P. H., Sokolov, A. P., and Kamenkovich, I. V.: The deep-ocean heat uptake in transient climate change, J. Climate, 16, 1352–1363, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442-16.9.1352, 2003.
Huntingford, C., Cox, P. M., and Lenton, T. M.: Contrasting responses of a simple terrestrial ecosystem model to global change, Ecol. Model., 134, 41–58, 2000.
Kostov, Y., Armour, K. C., and Marshall, J.: Impact of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ocean heat storage and transient climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2108–2116, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058998, 2014.
Kuhlbrodt, T. and Gregory, J. M.: Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L18608, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052952, 2012.
Kuhlbrodt, T., Gregory, J. M., and Shaffrey, L. C.: A process-based analysis of ocean heat uptake in an AOGCM with an eddy-permitting ocean component, Clim. Dynam., 45, 3205–3226, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2534-0, 2015.
Landerer, F. W., Jungclaus, J. H., and Marotzke, J.: Regional dynamic and steric sea level change in response to the IPCC-A1B scenario, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 37, 296–312, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO3013.1, 2007.
Lorbacher, K., Nauels, A., and Meinshausen, M.: Complementing thermosteric sea level rise estimates, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2723–2734, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2723-2015, 2015.
Lowe, J. A. and Gregory, J. M.: Understanding projections of sea level rise in a Hadley Centre coupled climate model, J. Geophys. Res., 111, C11014, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JC003421, 2006.
Marotzke, J.: Analysis of thermohaline feedbacks, in: Decadal climate variability, edited by: Anderson, D. L. T. and Willebrand, J., chap. Dynamics and Predictability, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 1996.
Marshall, J., Scott, J. R., Armour, K. C., Campin, J.-M., Kelley, M., and Romanou, A.: The ocean's role in the transient response of climate to abrupt greenhouse gas forcing, Clim. Dynam., 44, 2287–2299, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2308-0, 2015.
Meehl, G. A., Stocker, T. F., Collins, W. D., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A. T., Gregory, J. M., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Murphy, J. M., Noda, A., Raper, S. C. B., Watterson, I. G., Weaver, A. J., and Zhao, Z.: Global climate projections, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, 2007.
Melet, A. and Meyssignac, B.: Explaining the spread in global mean thermosteric sea level rise in CMIP5 climate models, J. Climate, 28, 9918–9940, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0200.1, 2015.
Merrifield, M. A., Thompson, P. R., and Lander, M.: Multidecadal sea level anomalies and trends in the western tropical Pacific, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L13602, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052032, 2012.
Mikolajewicz, U. and Voss, R.: The role of the individual air-sea flux components in CO2-induced changes of the ocean's circulation and climate, Clim. Dynam., 16, 627–642, 2000.
Morrison, A. K., Saenko, O. A., Hogg, A. M., and Spence, P.: The role of vertical eddy transport in Southern Ocean heat uptake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5445–5450, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057706, 2013.
Morrison, A. K., Griffies, S. M., Winton, M., Anderson, W. G., and Sarmiento, J. L.: Mechanisms of Southern Ocean heat uptake and transport in a global eddying climate model, J. Climate, 29, 2059–2075, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0579.1, 2016.
Palanisamy, H., Meyssignac, B., Cazenave, A., and Delcroix, T.: Is anthropogenic sea level fingerprint already detectable in the Pacific Ocean?, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 084024, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084024, 2015.
Palter, J. B., Griffies, S. M., Samuels, B. L., Galbraith, E. D., Gnanadesikan, A., and Klocker, A.: The deep ocean buoyancy budget and its temporal variability, J. Climate, 27, 551–573, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00016.1, 2014.
Pardaens, A. K., Gregory, J. M., and Lowe, J. A.: A model study of factors influencing projected changes in regional sea level over the 21st century, Clim. Dynam., 36, 2015–2033, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0738-x, 2011.
Perrette, M., Landerer, F., Riva, R., Frieler, K., and Meinshausen, M.: A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 11–29, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-11-2013, 2013.
Rahmstorf, S. and Ganapolski, A.: Long-term global warming scenarios computed with an efficient coupled climate model, Clim. Change, 43, 353–367, 1999.
Rahmstorf, S. and Willebrand, J.: The role of temperature feedback in stabilizing the thermohaline circulation, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 25, 787–805, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1995)025<0787:TROTFI>2.0.CO;2, 1995.
Roberts, C. D., Calvert, D., Dunstone, N., Hermanson, L., Palmer, M. D., and Smith, D.: On the drivers and predictability of seasonal-to-interannual variations in regional sea level, J. Climate, 29, 7565–7585, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0886.1, 2016.
Rugenstein, M. A. A., Winton, M., Stouffer, R. J., Griffies, S. M., and Hallberg, R.: Northern high-latitude heat budget decomposition and transient warming, J. Climate, 26, 609–621, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00695.1, 2013.
Russell, G. L., Gornitz, V., and Miller, J. R.: Regional sea-level changes projected by the NASA/GISS atmosphere-ocean model, Clim. Dynam., 16, 789–797, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820000090, 2000.
Saenko, O. A., Yang, D., Gregory, J. M., Spence, P., and Myers, P. G.: Separating the influence of projected changes in air temperature and wind on patterns of sea level change and ocean heat content, J. Geophys. Res., 120, 5749–5765, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC010928, 2015.
Santer, B. D., Wigley, T. M. L., Schlesinger, M. E., and Mitchell, J. F. B.: Developing climate scenarios from equilibrium GCM results, Tech. Rep. 47, MPI Hamburg, 1990.
Sausen, R., Barthel, K., and Hasselmann, K.: Coupled ocean-atmosphere models with flux corrections, Clim. Dynam., 2, 154–163, 1988.
Schmidt, G. A., Ruedy, R., Hansen, J. E., Aleinov, I., Bell, N., Bauer, M., Baue, S., Cairns, B., Canut, V., Cheng, Y., Genio, A. D., Faluvegi, G., Friend, A. D., Hall, T. M., Hu, Y., Kelley, M., Kiang, N. Y., Koch, D., Lacis, A. A., Lerner, J., Lo, K. K., Miller, R. L., Nazarenko, L., Oinas, V., Perlwitz, J., Perlwitz, J., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Russell, G. L., Sato, M., Shindell, D. T., Stone, P. H., Sun, S., Tausnev, N., Thresher, D., and Yao, M.-S.: Present day atmospheric simulations using GISS Model E: Comparison to in-situ, satellite and reanalysis data, J. Climate, 19, 153–192, 2006.
Sen Gupta, A. and England, M. H.: Evaluation of Interior Circulation in a High-Resolution Global Ocean Model. Part I: Deep and Bottom Waters, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 34, 2592–2614, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO2651.1, 2004.
Sen Gupta, A., Jourdain, N. C., Brown, J. N., and Monselesan, D.: Climate drift in the CMIP5 models, J. Climate, 26, 8597–8615, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00521.1, 2013.
Slangen, A. B. A., Carson, M., Katsman, C. A., van de Wal, R. S. W., Köhl, A., Vermeersen, L. L. A., and Stammer, D.: Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes, Climatic Change, 124, 317–332, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1080-9, 2014.
Smith, R. S., Gregory, J. M., and Osprey, A.: A description of the FAMOUS (version XDBUA) climate model and control run, Geosci. Model Dev., 1, 53–68, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-1-53-2008, 2008.
Spence, P., Griffies, S. M., England, M. H., Hogg, A. M., Saenko, O. A., and Jourdain, N. C.: Rapid subsurface warming and circulation changes of Antarctic coastal waters by poleward shifting winds, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 4601–4610, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060613, 2014.
Stammer, D., Agarwal, N., Herrmann, P., Köhl, A., and Mechoso, C. R.: Response of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to Greenland Ice Melting, Surv. Geophys., 32, 621–642, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-011-9142-2, 2011.
Stenchikov, G., Delworth, T. L., Ramaswany, V., Stouffer, R. J., Wittenberg, A., and Zeng, F.: Volcanic signals in oceans, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D16104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011673, 2009.
Stewart, A. L. and Thompson, A. F.: Eddy-mediated transport of warm Circumpolar Deep Water across the Antarctic Shelf Break, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 432–440, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062281, 2015.
Stouffer, R. J.: Time scales of climate response, J. Climate, 17, 209–217, 2004.
Stouffer, R. J., Yin, J., Gregory, J. M., Dixon, K. W., Spelman, M. J., Hurlin, W., Weaver, A. J., Eby, M., Flato, G. M., Hasumi, H., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J., Kamenkovich, I. V., Levermann, A., Montoya, M., Murakami, S., Nawrath, S., Oka, A., Peltier, W. R., Robitaille, D. Y., Sokolov, A., Vettoretti, G., and Weber, N.: Investigating the Causes of the Response of the Thermohaline Circulation to Past and Future Climate Changes, J. Climate, 19, 1365–1387, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3689.1, 2006.
Swingedouw, D., Rodehacke, C. B., Olsen, S. M., Menary, M., Gao, Y., Mikolajewicz, U., and Mignot, J.: On the reduced sensitivity of the Atlantic overturning to Greenland ice sheet melting in projections: a multi-model assessment, Clim. Dynam., 44, 3261–3279, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2270-x, 2015.
Vaughan, D. G., Comiso, J. C., Allison, I., Carrasco, J., Kaser, G., Kwok, R., Mote, P., Murray, T., Paul, F., Ren, J., Rignot, E., Solomina, O., Steffen, K., and Zhang, T.: Observations: Cryosphere, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.012, 2013.
Vizcaíno, M., Mikolajewicz, U., Jungclaus, J., and Schurgers, G.: Climate modification by future ice sheet changes and consequences for ice sheet mass balance, Clim. Dynam., 34, 301–324, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0591-y, 2010.
Weijer, W., Maltrud, M. E., Hecht, M. W., Dijkstra, H. A., and Kliphuis, M. A.: Response of the Atlantic Ocean circulation to Greenland Ice Sheet melting in a strongly-eddying ocean model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09606, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051611, 2012.
Winton, M., Griffies, S. M., Samuels, B. L., Sarmiento, J. L., and Frölicher, T. L.: Connecting changing ocean circulation with changing climate, J. Climate, 26, 2268–2278, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00296.1, 2013.
Winton, M., Anderson, W. G., Delworth, T. L., Griffies, S. M., Hurlin, W. J., and Rosati, A.: Has coarse ocean resolution biased simulations of transient climate sensitivity?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 8522–8529, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061523, 2014.
Xie, P. and Vallis, G. K.: The passive and active nature of ocean heat uptake in idealized climate change experiments, Clim. Dynam., 38, 667–684, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1063-8, 2012.
Yang, D. and Saenko, O. A.: Ocean heat transport and its projected change in CanESM2, J. Climate, 25, 8148–8163, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00715.1, 2012.
Yin, J.: Century to multi-century sea level rise projections from CMIP5 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L17709, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052947, 2012.
Yin, J., Schlesinger, M. E., and Stouffer, R. J.: Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States, Nat. Geosci., 2, 262–266, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO462, 2009.
Yin, J., Griffies, S. M., and Stouffer, R. J.: Spatial Variability of Sea Level Rise in Twenty-First Century Projections, J. Climate, 23, 4585–4607, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3533.1, 2010.
Yin, J., Overpeck, J. T., Griffies, S. M., Hu, A., Russell, J. L., and Stouffer, R. J.: Different magnitudes of projected subsurface ocean warming around Greenland and Antarctica, Nat. Geosci., 4, 524–528, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1189, 2011.
Zhang, X. and Church, J. A.: Sea level trends, interannual and decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L21701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053240, 2012.
Short summary
As a consequence of greenhouse gas emissions, changes in ocean temperature, salinity, circulation and sea level are expected in coming decades. Among the models used for climate projections for the 21st century, there is a large spread in projections of these effects. The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) aims to investigate and explain this spread by prescribing a common set of changes in the input of heat, water and wind stress to the ocean in the participating models.
As a consequence of greenhouse gas emissions, changes in ocean temperature, salinity,...
