Articles | Volume 17, issue 17
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6703-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6703-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
CICE on a C-grid: new momentum, stress, and transport schemes for CICEv6.5
Jean-François Lemieux
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Recherche en Prévision Numérique Environnementale, Environnement et Changement Climatique, Dorval, QC, Canada
William H. Lipscomb
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Anthony Craig
Science and Technology Corporation, Seattle, WA, USA
David A. Bailey
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Elizabeth C. Hunke
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
Philippe Blain
Service Météorologique Canadien, Prévision Numérique de l'Environnement Marin, Environnement et Changement Climatique, Dorval, QC, Canada
Till A. S. Rasmussen
National Center for Climate Research, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
Mats Bentsen
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Frédéric Dupont
Service Météorologique Canadien, Prévision Numérique de l'Environnement Marin, Environnement et Changement Climatique, Dorval, QC, Canada
David Hebert
US Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS, USA
Richard Allard
US Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS, USA
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Sea ice models simulate angles between cracks that are too wide compared to observations. Ringeisen et al. argue that this is due to the flow rule which defines the fracture deformations. We implemented a non-normal flow rule. This flow rule also leads to angles that are too wide. This is a consequence of deformations that tend to align with the grid. Nevertheless, this flow rule could be used to optimize deformations while other parameters could be used to modify landfast ice and ice drift.
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We developed a standard viscous–plastic sea-ice model based on the numerical framework called smoothed particle hydrodynamics. The model conforms to the theory within an error of 1 % in an idealized ridging experiment, and it is able to simulate stable ice arches. However, the method creates a dispersive plastic wave speed. The framework is efficient to simulate fractures and can take full advantage of parallelization, making it a good candidate to investigate sea-ice material properties.
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-441, 2025
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Sea ice models simulate angles between cracks that are too wide compared to observations. Ringeisen et al. argue that this is due to the flow rule which defines the fracture deformations. We implemented a non-normal flow rule. This flow rule also leads to angles that are too wide. This is a consequence of deformations that tend to align with the grid. Nevertheless, this flow rule could be used to optimize deformations while other parameters could be used to modify landfast ice and ice drift.
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The Cryosphere, 19, 63–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-63-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-63-2025, 2025
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Heiko Goelzer, Petra M. Langebroek, Andreas Born, Stefan Hofer, Konstanze Haubner, Michele Petrini, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Katherine Thayer-Calder
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3045, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3045, 2025
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The Cryosphere, 18, 5985–6004, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5985-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5985-2024, 2024
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Mira Berdahl, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Robert A. Tomas, Nathan M. Urban, Ian Miller, Harriet Morgan, and Eric J. Steig
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Studying climate conditions near the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) during Earth’s past warm periods informs us about how global warming may influence AIS ice loss. Using a global climate model, we investigate climate conditions near the AIS during the Last Interglacial (129 to 116 kyr ago), a period with warmer global temperatures and higher sea level than today. We identify the orbital and freshwater forcings that could cause ice loss and probe the mechanisms that lead to warmer climate conditions.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
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We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Till Andreas Soya Rasmussen, Jacob Poulsen, Mads Hvid Ribergaard, Ruchira Sasanka, Anthony P. Craig, Elizabeth C. Hunke, and Stefan Rethmeier
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6529–6544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6529-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6529-2024, 2024
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Earth system models (ESMs) today strive for better quality based on improved resolutions and improved physics. A limiting factor is the supercomputers at hand and how best to utilize them. This study focuses on the refactorization of one part of a sea ice model (CICE), namely the dynamics. It shows that the performance can be significantly improved, which means that one can either run the same simulations much cheaper or advance the system according to what is needed.
Mathieu Plante, Jean-François Lemieux, L. Bruno Tremblay, Adrienne Tivy, Joey Angnatok, François Roy, Gregory Smith, Frédéric Dupont, and Adrian K. Turner
The Cryosphere, 18, 1685–1708, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1685-2024, 2024
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We use a sea ice model to reproduce ice growth observations from two buoys deployed on coastal sea ice and analyze the improvements brought by new physics that represent the presence of saline liquid water in the ice interior. We find that the new physics with default parameters degrade the model performance, with overly rapid ice growth and overly early snow flooding on top of the ice. The performance is largely improved by simple modifications to the ice growth and snow-flooding algorithms.
Oreste Marquis, Bruno Tremblay, Jean-François Lemieux, and Mohammed Islam
The Cryosphere, 18, 1013–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1013-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1013-2024, 2024
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We developed a standard viscous–plastic sea-ice model based on the numerical framework called smoothed particle hydrodynamics. The model conforms to the theory within an error of 1 % in an idealized ridging experiment, and it is able to simulate stable ice arches. However, the method creates a dispersive plastic wave speed. The framework is efficient to simulate fractures and can take full advantage of parallelization, making it a good candidate to investigate sea-ice material properties.
Marika M. Holland, Cecile Hannay, John Fasullo, Alexandra Jahn, Jennifer E. Kay, Michael Mills, Isla R. Simpson, William Wieder, Peter Lawrence, Erik Kluzek, and David Bailey
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1585–1602, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024, 2024
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Climate evolves in response to changing forcings, as prescribed in simulations. Models and forcings are updated over time to reflect new understanding. This makes it difficult to attribute simulation differences to either model or forcing changes. Here we present new simulations which enable the separation of model structure and forcing influence between two widely used simulation sets. Results indicate a strong influence of aerosol emission uncertainty on historical climate.
Tong Zhang, William Colgan, Agnes Wansing, Anja Løkkegaard, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Cunde Xiao
The Cryosphere, 18, 387–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-387-2024, 2024
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The geothermal heat flux determines how much heat enters from beneath the ice sheet, and thus impacts the temperature and the flow of the ice sheet. In this study we investigate how much geothermal heat flux impacts the initialization of the Greenland ice sheet. We use the Community Ice Sheet Model with two different initialization methods. We find a non-trivial influence of the choice of heat flow boundary conditions on the ice sheet initializations for further designs of ice sheet modeling.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
René R. Wijngaard, Adam R. Herrington, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, and Soon-Il An
The Cryosphere, 17, 3803–3828, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, 2023
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We evaluate the ability of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables, such as glacier surface mass balance (SMB), over High Mountain Asia (HMA) by using a global grid (~111 km) with regional refinement (~7 km) over HMA. Evaluations of two different simulations show that climatological biases are reduced, and glacier SMB is improved (but still too negative) by modifying the snow and glacier model and using an updated glacier cover dataset.
Imke Sievers, Till A. S. Rasmussen, and Lars Stenseng
The Cryosphere, 17, 3721–3738, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3721-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3721-2023, 2023
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The satellite CryoSat-2 measures freeboard (FB), which is used to derive sea ice thickness (SIT) under the assumption of hydrostatic balance. This SIT comes with large uncertainties due to errors in the observed FB, sea ice density, snow density and snow thickness. This study presents a new method to derive SIT by assimilating the FB into the sea ice model, evaluates the resulting SIT against in situ observations and compares the results to the CryoSat-2-derived SIT without FB assimilation.
Constantijn J. Berends, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Tim van den Akker, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 17, 1585–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, 2023
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The rate at which the Antarctic ice sheet will melt because of anthropogenic climate change is uncertain. Part of this uncertainty stems from processes occurring beneath the ice, such as the way the ice slides over the underlying bedrock.
Inversion methodsattempt to use observations of the ice-sheet surface to calculate how these sliding processes work. We show that such methods cannot fully solve this problem, so a substantial uncertainty still remains in projections of sea-level rise.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Nathan M. Urban, and Matthew J. Hoffman
The Cryosphere, 17, 1513–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, 2023
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Contributions to future sea level from the Antarctic Ice Sheet remain poorly constrained. One reason is that ice sheet model initialization methods can have significant impacts on how the ice sheet responds to future forcings. We investigate the impacts of two key parameters used during model initialization. We find that these parameter choices alone can impact multi-century sea level rise by up to 2 m, emphasizing the need to carefully consider these choices for sea level rise predictions.
Jean-Philippe Paquin, François Roy, Gregory C. Smith, Sarah MacDermid, Ji Lei, Frédéric Dupont, Youyu Lu, Stephanne Taylor, Simon St-Onge-Drouin, Hauke Blanken, Michael Dunphy, and Nancy Soontiens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-42, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-42, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
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This paper present the Coastal Ice-Ocean Prediction System implemented operationally at Environment and climate change Canada. The objective is to enhance the numerical guidance in coastal areas to support electronic navigation and response to environmental emergencies in the aquatic environment. Model evaluation against observations shows improvements for most surface ocean variables in the coastal system compared to current coarser-resolution operational systems.
Younjoo J. Lee, Wieslaw Maslowski, John J. Cassano, Jaclyn Clement Kinney, Anthony P. Craig, Samy Kamal, Robert Osinski, Mark W. Seefeldt, Julienne Stroeve, and Hailong Wang
The Cryosphere, 17, 233–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-233-2023, 2023
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During 1979–2020, four winter polynyas occurred in December 1986 and February 2011, 2017, and 2018 north of Greenland. Instead of ice melting due to the anomalous warm air intrusion, the extreme wind forcing resulted in greater ice transport offshore. Based on the two ensemble runs, representing a 1980s thicker ice vs. a 2010s thinner ice, a dominant cause of these winter polynyas stems from internal variability of atmospheric forcing rather than from the forced response to a warming climate.
Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, David A. Bailey, Nan Rosenbloom, Brian Dobbins, Walker R. Lee, Mari Tye, and Jean-Francois Lamarque
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8221–8243, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, 2022
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Solar climate intervention using stratospheric aerosol injection is a proposed method of reducing global mean temperatures to reduce the worst consequences of climate change. We present a new modeling protocol aimed at simulating a plausible deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection and reproducibility of simulations using other Earth system models: Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar climate intervention on the Earth system with stratospheric aerosol injection (ARISE-SAI).
Stephen G. Yeager, Nan Rosenbloom, Anne A. Glanville, Xian Wu, Isla Simpson, Hui Li, Maria J. Molina, Kristen Krumhardt, Samuel Mogen, Keith Lindsay, Danica Lombardozzi, Will Wieder, Who M. Kim, Jadwiga H. Richter, Matthew Long, Gokhan Danabasoglu, David Bailey, Marika Holland, Nicole Lovenduski, Warren G. Strand, and Teagan King
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6451–6493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022, 2022
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The Earth system changes over a range of time and space scales, and some of these changes are predictable in advance. Short-term weather forecasts are most familiar, but recent work has shown that it is possible to generate useful predictions several seasons or even a decade in advance. This study focuses on predictions over intermediate timescales (up to 24 months in advance) and shows that there is promising potential to forecast a variety of changes in the natural environment.
Frédéric Dupont, Dany Dumont, Jean-François Lemieux, Elie Dumas-Lefebvre, and Alain Caya
The Cryosphere, 16, 1963–1977, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1963-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1963-2022, 2022
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In some shallow seas, grounded ice ridges contribute to stabilizing and maintaining a landfast ice cover. A scheme has already proposed where the keel thickness varies linearly with the mean thickness. Here, we extend the approach by taking into account the ice thickness and bathymetry distributions. The probabilistic approach shows a reasonably good agreement with observations and previous grounding scheme while potentially offering more physical insights into the formation of landfast ice.
Adrian K. Turner, William H. Lipscomb, Elizabeth C. Hunke, Douglas W. Jacobsen, Nicole Jeffery, Darren Engwirda, Todd D. Ringler, and Jonathan D. Wolfe
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3721–3751, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3721-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3721-2022, 2022
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We present the dynamical core of the MPAS-Seaice model, which uses a mesh consisting of a Voronoi tessellation with polygonal cells. Such a mesh allows variable mesh resolution in different parts of the domain and the focusing of computational resources in regions of interest. We describe the velocity solver and tracer transport schemes used and examine errors generated by the model in both idealized and realistic test cases and examine the computational efficiency of the model.
Imke Sievers, Andrea M. U. Gierisch, Till A. S. Rasmussen, Robinson Hordoir, and Lars Stenseng
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-84, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-84, 2022
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To predict Arctic sea ice models are used. Many ice models exists. They all are skill full, but give different results. Often this differences result from forcing as for example air temperature. Other differences result from the way the physical equations are solved in the model. In this study two commonly used models are compared under equal forcing, to find out how much the models differ under similar external forcing. The results are compared to observations and to eachother.
Milena Veneziani, Wieslaw Maslowski, Younjoo J. Lee, Gennaro D'Angelo, Robert Osinski, Mark R. Petersen, Wilbert Weijer, Anthony P. Craig, John D. Wolfe, Darin Comeau, and Adrian K. Turner
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3133–3160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3133-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3133-2022, 2022
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We present an Earth system model (ESM) simulation, E3SM-Arctic-OSI, with a refined grid to better resolve the Arctic ocean and sea-ice system and low spatial resolution elsewhere. The configuration satisfactorily represents many aspects of the Arctic system and its interactions with the sub-Arctic, while keeping computational costs at a fraction of those necessary for global high-resolution ESMs. E3SM-Arctic can thus be an efficient tool to study Arctic processes on climate-relevant timescales.
Alexander Robinson, Daniel Goldberg, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 16, 689–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, 2022
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Here we investigate the numerical stability of several commonly used methods in order to determine which of them are capable of resolving the complex physics of the ice flow and are also computationally efficient. We find that the so-called DIVA solver outperforms the others. Its representation of the physics is consistent with more complex methods, while it remains computationally efficient at high resolution.
Ingo Bethke, Yiguo Wang, François Counillon, Noel Keenlyside, Madlen Kimmritz, Filippa Fransner, Annette Samuelsen, Helene Langehaug, Lea Svendsen, Ping-Gin Chiu, Leilane Passos, Mats Bentsen, Chuncheng Guo, Alok Gupta, Jerry Tjiputra, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, Julie Solsvik Vågane, Yuanchao Fan, and Tor Eldevik
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7073–7116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7073-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7073-2021, 2021
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The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model version 1 (NorCPM1) is a new research tool for performing climate reanalyses and seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions. It adds data assimilation capability to the Norwegian Earth System Model version 1 (NorESM1) and has contributed output to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) as part of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We describe the system and evaluate its baseline, reanalysis and prediction performance.
Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Xylar S. Asay-Davis
The Cryosphere, 15, 3229–3253, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3229-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3229-2021, 2021
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We present numerical features of the Community Ice Sheet Model in representing ocean termini glaciers. Using idealized test cases, we show that applying melt in a partly grounded cell is beneficial, in contrast to recent studies. We confirm that parameterizing partly grounded cells yields accurate ice sheet representation at a grid resolution of ~2 km (arguably 4 km), allowing ice sheet simulations at a continental scale. The choice of basal friction law also influences the ice flow.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Nathan M. Urban
The Cryosphere, 15, 2683–2699, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021, 2021
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Antarctic ice shelves are vulnerable to warming ocean temperatures and have already begun thinning in response to increased basal melt rates. Sea level is expected to rise due to Antarctic contributions, but uncertainties in rise amount and timing remain largely unquantified. To facilitate uncertainty quantification, we use a high-resolution ice sheet model to build, test, and validate an ice sheet emulator and generate probabilistic sea level rise estimates for 100 and 200 years in the future.
Gregory C. Smith, Yimin Liu, Mounir Benkiran, Kamel Chikhar, Dorina Surcel Colan, Audrey-Anne Gauthier, Charles-Emmanuel Testut, Frederic Dupont, Ji Lei, François Roy, Jean-François Lemieux, and Fraser Davidson
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1445–1467, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1445-2021, 2021
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Canada's coastlines include diverse ocean environments. In response to the strong need to support marine activities and security, we present the first pan-Canadian operational regional ocean analysis system. A novel online tidal harmonic analysis method is introduced that uses a sliding-window approach. Innovations are compared to those from the Canadian global analysis system. Particular improvements are found near the Gulf Stream due to the higher model grid resolution.
Ann Keen, Ed Blockley, David A. Bailey, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Mitchell Bushuk, Steve Delhaye, David Docquier, Daniel Feltham, François Massonnet, Siobhan O'Farrell, Leandro Ponsoni, José M. Rodriguez, David Schroeder, Neil Swart, Takahiro Toyoda, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Klaus Wyser
The Cryosphere, 15, 951–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-951-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-951-2021, 2021
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We compare the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in a number of the latest climate models. New output has been defined that allows us to compare the processes of sea ice growth and loss in a more detailed way than has previously been possible. We find that that the models are strikingly similar in terms of the major processes causing the annual growth and loss of Arctic sea ice and that the budget terms respond in a broadly consistent way as the climate warms during the 21st century.
William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Xylar Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, and Sophie Nowicki
The Cryosphere, 15, 633–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-633-2021, 2021
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This paper describes Antarctic climate change experiments in which the Community Ice Sheet Model is forced with ocean warming predicted by global climate models. Generally, ice loss begins slowly, accelerates by 2100, and then continues unabated, with widespread retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The mass loss by 2500 varies from about 150 to 1300 mm of equivalent sea level rise, based on the predicted ocean warming and assumptions about how this warming drives melting beneath ice shelves.
Gleb Panteleev, Max Yaremchuk, Jacob N. Stroh, Oceana P. Francis, and Richard Allard
The Cryosphere, 14, 4427–4451, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4427-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4427-2020, 2020
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In the CICE6 community model, rheology and landfast grounding/arching effects are simulated by functions of sea ice thickness and concentration with a set of fixed parameters empirically adjusted to optimize model performance. In this study we consider a spatially variable extension for representing these parameters in the two-dimensional elastic–viscoplastic (EVP) sea ice model and analyze the feasibility of the optimization of these parameters through the 4D-Var data assimilation approach.
Øyvind Seland, Mats Bentsen, Dirk Olivié, Thomas Toniazzo, Ada Gjermundsen, Lise Seland Graff, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Alok Kumar Gupta, Yan-Chun He, Alf Kirkevåg, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Ingo Bethke, Yuanchao Fan, Jan Griesfeller, Alf Grini, Chuncheng Guo, Mehmet Ilicak, Inger Helene Hafsahl Karset, Oskar Landgren, Johan Liakka, Kine Onsum Moseid, Aleksi Nummelin, Clemens Spensberger, Hui Tang, Zhongshi Zhang, Christoph Heinze, Trond Iversen, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6165–6200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, 2020
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The second version of the coupled Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) is presented and evaluated. The temperature and precipitation patterns has improved compared to NorESM1. The model reaches present-day warming levels to within 0.2 °C of observed temperature but with a delayed warming during the late 20th century. Under the four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the warming in the period of 2090–2099 compared to 1850–1879 reaches 1.3, 2.2, 3.1, and 3.9 K.
Jean-François Lemieux, L. Bruno Tremblay, and Mathieu Plante
The Cryosphere, 14, 3465–3478, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3465-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3465-2020, 2020
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Sea ice pressure poses great risk for navigation; it can lead to ship besetting and damages. Sea ice forecasting systems can predict the evolution of pressure. However, these systems have low spatial resolution (a few km) compared to the dimensions of ships. We study the downscaling of pressure from the km-scale to scales relevant for navigation. We find that the pressure applied on a ship beset in heavy ice conditions can be markedly larger than the pressure predicted by the forecasting system.
Christopher Subich, Pierre Pellerin, Gregory Smith, and Frederic Dupont
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4379–4398, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4379-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4379-2020, 2020
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This work presents a semi-Lagrangian advection module for the NEMO (OPA) ocean model. Semi-Lagrangian advection transports fluid properties (temperature, salinity, velocity) between time steps by following fluid motion and interpolating from upstream locations of fluid parcels.
This method is commonly used in atmospheric models to extend time step size, but it has not previously been applied to operational ocean models. Overcoming this required a new approach for solid boundaries (coastlines).
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
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In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
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The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
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Short summary
We present the latest version of the CICE model. It solves equations that describe the dynamics and the growth and melt of sea ice. To do so, the domain is divided into grid cells and variables are positioned at specific locations in the cells. A new implementation (C-grid) is presented, with the velocity located on cell edges. Compared to the previous B-grid, the C-grid allows for a natural coupling with some oceanic and atmospheric models. It also allows for ice transport in narrow channels.
We present the latest version of the CICE model. It solves equations that describe the dynamics...