Articles | Volume 17, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2447-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2447-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
28 Mar 2024
Model description paper |
| 28 Mar 2024
| 28 Mar 2024
MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM nexus module: integrating water sector and climate impacts
Energy, Climate & Environment Program, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Institute for Integrated Energy Systems, University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada
Adriano Vinca
Energy, Climate & Environment Program, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Edward Byers
Energy, Climate & Environment Program, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Stefan Frank
Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Oliver Fricko
Energy, Climate & Environment Program, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Esther Boere
Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Department of Environmental Geography, Instituut voor Milieuvraagstukken, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Peter Burek
Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Miguel Poblete Cazenave
Energy, Climate & Environment Program, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Paul Natsuo Kishimoto
Energy, Climate & Environment Program, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Alessio Mastrucci
Energy, Climate & Environment Program, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Yusuke Satoh
Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Moon Soul Graduate School of Future Strategy, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon, Korea
Amanda Palazzo
Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Madeleine McPherson
Institute for Integrated Energy Systems, University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada
Keywan Riahi
Energy, Climate & Environment Program, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Institute for Integrated Energy Systems, University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Technical University Graz, Graz, Austria
Volker Krey
Energy, Climate & Environment Program, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Related authors
No articles found.
Fabio Sferra, Bas van Ruijven, Keywan Riahi, Philip Hackstock, Florian Maczek, Jarmo Kikstra, and Reinhard Haas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-121, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-121, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Assessments of future emissions and the effectiveness of climate policies are usually performed with Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). Bringing together insights from IAMs with information at the country level has remained difficult, as these models provide results for a limited number of regions. This paper presents DSCALE, a novel algorithm designed to downscale regional IAMs outcomes to the country level and shows results for a current policy and a 1.5C scenario from the NGFS 2023 project.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Simon Newland Gosling, Marlo Garnsworthy, Laura Müller, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Atiq Kainan Ahmed, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Julien Boulange, Peter Burek, Jinfeng Chang, He Chen, Lukas Gudmundsson, Manolis Grillakis, Luca Guillaumot, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Rohini Kumar, Guoyong Leng, Junguo Liu, Xingcai Liu, Inga Menke, Vimal Mishra, Yadu Pokhrel, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, Yusuke Satoh, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Mikhail Smilovic, Tobias Stacke, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Wim Thiery, Athanasios Tsilimigkras, Yoshihide Wada, Niko Wanders, and Tokuta Yokohata
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2409–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Global water models contribute to the evaluation of important natural and societal issues but are – as all models – simplified representation of reality. So, there are many ways to calculate the water fluxes and storages. This paper presents a visualization of 16 global water models using a standardized visualization and the pathway towards this common understanding. Next to academic education purposes, we envisage that these diagrams will help researchers, model developers, and data users.
Detlef van Vuuren, Brian O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Louise Chini, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tomoko Hasegawa, Keywan Riahi, Benjamin Sanderson, Bala Govindasamy, Nico Bauer, Veronika Eyring, Cheikh Fall, Katja Frieler, Matthew Gidden, Laila Gohar, Andrew Jones, Andrew King, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Peter Lawrence, Chris Lennard, Jason Lowe, Camila Mathison, Shahbaz Mehmood, Luciana Prado, Qiang Zhang, Steven Rose, Alexander Ruane, Carl-Friederich Schleussner, Roland Seferian, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Anna Sörensson, Swapna Panickal, Kaoru Tachiiri, Naomi Vaughan, Saritha Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a set of six plausible 21st century emission scenarios, and their multi-century extensions, that will be used by the international community of climate modeling centers to produce the next generation of climate projections. These projections will support climate, impact and mitigation researchers, provide information to practitioners to address future risks from climate change, and contribute to policymakers’ considerations of the trade-offs among various levels of mitigation.
Taher Kahil, Safa Baccour, Julian Joseph, Reetik Sahu, Peter Burek, Jia Yi Ng, Samar Asad, Dor Fridman, Jose Albiac, Frank A. Ward, and Yoshihide Wada
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-238, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-238, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the development of the global version of the ECHO hydro-economic model for assessing the economic and environmental performance of water management options. This improved version covers a large number of basins worldwide, includes a detailed representation of irrigated agriculture, and accounts for economic benefits and costs of water use. Results of this study demonstrates the capacity of the model to address emerging water-related research and practical questions.
Gamze Ünlü, Florian Maczek, Jihoon Min, Stefan Frank, Fridolin Glatter, Paul Natsuo Kishimoto, Jan Streeck, Nina Eisenmenger, Dominik Wiedenhofer, and Volker Krey
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8321–8352, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8321-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extraction and processing of raw materials constitute a significant source of CO2 emissions in industry and so are contributors to climate change. We develop an open-source tool to assess different industry decarbonization pathways in integrated assessment models (IAMs) with a representation of material flows and stocks. We highlight the importance of expanding the scope of climate change mitigation options to include circular-economy and material efficiency measures in IAM scenario analysis.
Felix Jäger, Jonas Schwaab, Yann Quilcaille, Michael Windisch, Jonathan Doelman, Stefan Frank, Mykola Gusti, Petr Havlik, Florian Humpenöder, Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Christoph Müller, Kanishka Balu Narayan, Ryan Sebastian Padrón, Alexander Popp, Detlef van Vuuren, Michael Wögerer, and Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1055–1071, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change mitigation strategies developed with socioeconomic models rely on the widespread (re)planting of trees to limit global warming below 2°. However, most of these models neglect climate-driven shifts in forest damage like fires. By assessing existing mitigation scenarios, we show the exposure of projected forestation areas to fire-promoting weather conditions. Our study highlights the problem of ignoring climate-driven shifts in forest damage and ways to address it.
Dor Fridman, Mikhail Smilovic, Peter Burek, Sylvia Tramberend, and Taher Kahil
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-143, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-143, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Global hydrological models are applied at high spatial resolutions to quantify water availability and evaluate water scarcity mitigation options. Yet they mostly oversee important local processes. This paper presents and demonstrates the inclusion of wastewater treatment and reclamation into a global hydrological model. As a result model performance is improved, and models are capable to utilize treated wastewater as an alternative water source.
Sarah Hanus, Lilian Schuster, Peter Burek, Fabien Maussion, Yoshihide Wada, and Daniel Viviroli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5123–5144, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a coupling of the large-scale glacier model OGGM and the hydrological model CWatM. Projected future increase in discharge is less strong while future decrease in discharge is stronger when glacier runoff is explicitly included in the large-scale hydrological model. This is because glacier runoff is projected to decrease in nearly all basins. We conclude that an improved glacier representation can prevent underestimating future discharge changes in large river basins.
Peter Burek and Mikhail Smilovic
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5617–5629, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5617-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We address an annoying problem every grid-based hydrological model must solve to compare simulated and observed river discharge. First, station locations do not fit the high-resolution river network. We update the database with stations based on a new high-resolution network. Second, station locations do not work with a coarser grid-based network. We use a new basin shape similarity concept for station locations on a coarser grid, reducing the error of assigning stations to the wrong basin.
Jens A. de Bruijn, Mikhail Smilovic, Peter Burek, Luca Guillaumot, Yoshihide Wada, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2437–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a computer simulation model of the hydrological system and human system, which can simulate the behaviour of individual farmers and their interactions with the water system at basin scale to assess how the systems have evolved and are projected to evolve in the future. For example, we can simulate the effect of subsidies provided on investment in adaptation measures and subsequent effects in the hydrological system, such as a lowering of the groundwater table or reservoir level.
Jarmo S. Kikstra, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Christopher J. Smith, Jared Lewis, Robin D. Lamboll, Edward Byers, Marit Sandstad, Malte Meinshausen, Matthew J. Gidden, Joeri Rogelj, Elmar Kriegler, Glen P. Peters, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Bjørn H. Samset, Laura Wienpahl, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Piers M. Forster, Andy Reisinger, Roberto Schaeffer, and Keywan Riahi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9075–9109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing hundreds or thousands of emission scenarios in terms of their global mean temperature implications requires standardised procedures of infilling, harmonisation, and probabilistic temperature assessments. We here present the open-source
climate-assessmentworkflow that was used in the IPCC AR6 Working Group III report. The paper provides key insight for anyone wishing to understand the assessment of climate outcomes of mitigation pathways in the context of the Paris Agreement.
Luca Guillaumot, Mikhail Smilovic, Peter Burek, Jens de Bruijn, Peter Greve, Taher Kahil, and Yoshihide Wada
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7099–7120, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7099-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7099-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop and test the first large-scale hydrological model at regional scale with a very high spatial resolution that includes a water management and groundwater flow model. This study infers the impact of surface and groundwater-based irrigation on groundwater recharge and on evapotranspiration in both irrigated and non-irrigated areas. We argue that water table recorded in boreholes can be used as validation data if water management is well implemented and spatial resolution is ≤ 100 m.
Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Wim Thiery, Guoyong Leng, Peter Burek, Xingcai Liu, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Manolis Grillakis, Simon Newland Gosling, Yusuke Satoh, Oldrich Rakovec, Tobias Stacke, Jinfeng Chang, Niko Wanders, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Tim Trautmann, Ganquan Mao, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Luis Samaniego, Yoshihide Wada, Vimal Mishra, Junguo Liu, Petra Döll, Fang Zhao, Anne Gädeke, Sam S. Rabin, and Florian Herz
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3843–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in 16 global water models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. We develop a standard writing style for the model equations. We conclude that even though hydrologic processes are often based on similar equations, in the end these equations have been adjusted, or the models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Robert Reinecke, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Peter Burek, Martina Flörke, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Wim Thiery, Yoshihide Wada, Satoh Yusuke, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 787–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Billions of people rely on groundwater as an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Groundwater recharge is the primary process of regenerating groundwater resources. We find that groundwater recharge will increase in northern Europe by about 19 % and decrease by 10 % in the Amazon with 3 °C global warming. In the Mediterranean, a 2 °C warming has already lead to a reduction in recharge by 38 %. However, these model predictions are uncertain.
George C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Justin Fisk, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlik, Andreas Heinimann, Florian Humpenöder, Johan Jungclaus, Jed O. Kaplan, Jennifer Kennedy, Tamás Krisztin, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Lei Ma, Ole Mertz, Julia Pongratz, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Keywan Riahi, Elena Shevliakova, Elke Stehfest, Peter Thornton, Francesco N. Tubiello, Detlef P. van Vuuren, and Xin Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To estimate the effects of human land use activities on the carbon–climate system, a new set of global gridded land use forcing datasets was developed to link historical land use data to eight future scenarios in a standard format required by climate models. This new generation of land use harmonization (LUH2) includes updated inputs, higher spatial resolution, more detailed land use transitions, and the addition of important agricultural management layers; it will be used for CMIP6 simulations.
Peter Burek, Yusuke Satoh, Taher Kahil, Ting Tang, Peter Greve, Mikhail Smilovic, Luca Guillaumot, Fang Zhao, and Yoshihide Wada
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3267–3298, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3267-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3267-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present the new global hydrological model "Community Water Model" (CWatM), which can be used globally and regionally. The model is open source and written with the Python programming language. It uses global, freely available data in a smart and state-of-the-art format. It includes the major hydrological processes but also takes into account human activities, such as water use and reservoir regulation, by calculating water demand from the agriculture, domestic, and industrial sectors.
Adriano Vinca, Simon Parkinson, Edward Byers, Peter Burek, Zarrar Khan, Volker Krey, Fabio A. Diuana, Yaoping Wang, Ansir Ilyas, Alexandre C. Köberle, Iain Staffell, Stefan Pfenninger, Abubakr Muhammad, Andrew Rowe, Roberto Schaeffer, Narasimha D. Rao, Yoshihide Wada, Ned Djilali, and Keywan Riahi
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1095–1121, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1095-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1095-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This article describes a newly developed numerical model that can assess impacts of long-term policies for the energy, water and land (WEL) sectors at the scale of a river basin. We show the importance of having an integrated method when jointly considering multiple policies as opposed to conventional sectoral analysis. This model can be useful for studying river basins, such as the Indus basin, that are exposed to challenges over WEL sectors, like water scarcity or food and energy access.
Matthew J. Gidden, Keywan Riahi, Steven J. Smith, Shinichiro Fujimori, Gunnar Luderer, Elmar Kriegler, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Maarten van den Berg, Leyang Feng, David Klein, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Mathijs Harmsen, Tomoko Hasegawa, Petr Havlik, Jérôme Hilaire, Rachel Hoesly, Jill Horing, Alexander Popp, Elke Stehfest, and Kiyoshi Takahashi
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1443–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources for use in CMIP6. Integrated assessment model results are provided for each scenario with consistent transitions from the historical data to future trajectories. We find that the set of scenarios enables the exploration of a variety of warming pathways. A wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientific community including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets.
Stephanie Fiedler, Bjorn Stevens, Matthew Gidden, Steven J. Smith, Keywan Riahi, and Detlef van Vuuren
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 989–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-989-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-989-2019, 2019
Xingcai Liu, Wenfeng Liu, Hong Yang, Qiuhong Tang, Martina Flörke, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Hannes Müller Schmied, Sebastian Ostberg, Yadu Pokhrel, Yusuke Satoh, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1245–1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Human activities associated with water resource management have significantly increased in China during the past decades. This assessment helps us understand how streamflow has been affected by climate and human activities in China. Our analyses indicate that the climate impact has dominated streamflow changes in most areas, and human activities (in terms of water withdrawals) have increasingly decreased streamflow in the northern basins of China which are vulnerable to future climate change.
Alex C. Ruane, Claas Teichmann, Nigel W. Arnell, Timothy R. Carter, Kristie L. Ebi, Katja Frieler, Clare M. Goodess, Bruce Hewitson, Radley Horton, R. Sari Kovats, Heike K. Lotze, Linda O. Mearns, Antonio Navarra, Dennis S. Ojima, Keywan Riahi, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Matthias Themessl, and Katharine Vincent
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3493–3515, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3493-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3493-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation, and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for CMIP6 was created to improve communications between communities that apply climate model output for societal benefit and the climate model centers. This manuscript describes the establishment of the VIACS Advisory Board as a coherent avenue for communication utilizing leading networks, experts, and programs; results of initial interactions during the development of CMIP6; and its potential next activities.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Luc Feyen, Peter Salamon, Jutta Thielen, Alessandra Bianchi, Francesco Dottori, and Peter Burek
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1401–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1401-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1401-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This work couples recent advances in large scale flood hazard mapping into a pan-European flood risk model to estimate the impact of river floods in a seamless simulation, covering more than two decades.
Results of this research are an important contribution in the reconstruction of a complete dataset of flood impact data. Also, it has direct implications in the area of flood early warning with regard to the rapid risk assessment of flood impacts.
Y. Wada, M. Flörke, N. Hanasaki, S. Eisner, G. Fischer, S. Tramberend, Y. Satoh, M. T. H. van Vliet, P. Yillia, C. Ringler, P. Burek, and D. Wiberg
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 175–222, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-175-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-175-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast-track" assessment uses three global water models, H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP, to provide the first multi-model analysis of global water use for the 21st century based on the water scenarios.
Related subject area
Integrated assessment modeling
Long-term hydro-economic analysis tool for evaluating global groundwater cost and supply: Superwell v1.1
emIAM v1.0: an emulator for integrated assessment models using marginal abatement cost curves
pathways-ensemble-analysis v1.1.0: an open-source library for systematic and robust analysis of pathway ensembles
MESSAGEix-Materials v1.1.0: representation of material flows and stocks in an integrated assessment model
InsNet-CRAFTY v1.0: Integrating institutional network dynamics powered by large language models with land use change simulation
GCAM–GLORY v1.0: representing global reservoir water storage in a multi-sector human–Earth system model
CLASH – Climate-responsive Land Allocation model with carbon Storage and Harvests
Carbon Monitor Power-Simulators (CMP-SIM v1.0) across countries: a data-driven approach to simulate daily power generation
Intercomparison of multiple two-way coupled meteorology and air quality models (WRF v4.1.1–CMAQ v5.3.1, WRF–Chem v4.1.1, and WRF v3.7.1–CHIMERE v2020r1) in eastern China
Minimum-variance-based outlier detection method using forward-search model error in geodetic networks
Modelling long-term industry energy demand and CO2 emissions in the system context using REMIND (version 3.1.0)
Bidirectional coupling of the long-term integrated assessment model REgional Model of INvestments and Development (REMIND) v3.0.0 with the hourly power sector model Dispatch and Investment Evaluation Tool with Endogenous Renewables (DIETER) v1.0.2
GCAM-CDR v1.0: enhancing the representation of carbon dioxide removal technologies and policies in an integrated assessment model
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures
Cyclone generation Algorithm including a THERmodynamic module for Integrated National damage Assessment (CATHERINA 1.0) compatible with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) climate data
A tool for air pollution scenarios (TAPS v1.0) to enable global, long-term, and flexible study of climate and air quality policies
Improved CASA model based on satellite remote sensing data: simulating net primary productivity of Qinghai Lake basin alpine grassland
Pixel-level parameter optimization of a terrestrial biosphere model for improving estimation of carbon fluxes with an efficient model–data fusion method and satellite-derived LAI and GPP data
Climate Services Toolbox (CSTools) v4.0: from climate forecasts to climate forecast information
TIM: modelling pathways to meet Ireland's long-term energy system challenges with the TIMES-Ireland Model (v1.0)
ANEMI_Yangtze v1.0: a coupled human–natural systems model for the Yangtze Economic Belt – model description
Nested leave-two-out cross-validation for the optimal crop yield model selection
GCAM-USA v5.3_water_dispatch: integrated modeling of subnational US energy, water, and land systems within a global framework
GOBLIN version 1.0: a land balance model to identify national agriculture and land use pathways to climate neutrality via backcasting
Globally consistent assessment of economic impacts of wildfires in CLIMADA v2.2
REMIND2.1: transformation and innovation dynamics of the energy-economic system within climate and sustainability limits
Parallel gridded simulation framework for DSSAT-CSM (version 4.7.5.21) using MPI and NetCDF
Estimating global land system impacts of timber plantations using MAgPIE 4.3.5
Hassan Niazi, Stephen B. Ferencz, Neal T. Graham, Jim Yoon, Thomas B. Wild, Mohamad Hejazi, David J. Watson, and Chris R. Vernon
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1737–1767, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1737-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1737-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Superwell is a physics-based hydro-economic model that estimates the production costs and availability of groundwater worldwide. It calculates how much groundwater can be extracted and at what cost, using detailed maps and data of the Earth's properties. Through these estimates, and by using them with other models, Superwell facilitates exploration of coupled human–environmental system challenges, such as future water supply sustainability or multi-sectoral energy–water–land feedbacks.
Weiwei Xiong, Katsumasa Tanaka, Philippe Ciais, Daniel J. A. Johansson, and Mariliis Lehtveer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1575–1612, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1575-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1575-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
emIAM v1.0 is a new emulator for integrated assessment models (IAMs) using global and regional time-independent marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves for multiple greenhouse gases, optionally with time-dependent MAC curves for enhanced accuracy. Combined with climate emulators, emIAM enables development of cost-effective, multi-IAM emission pathways directly linked to temperature targets at low computational cost.
Lara Welder, Neil Grant, and Matthew J. Gidden
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 239–252, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-239-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-239-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Pathways investigating the link between emissions and global warming have been continuously used to inform climate policy. We have developed a tool that can facilitate the systematic and robust analysis of ensembles of such pathways. We describe the structure of this tool and then show an illustrative application of it. The application indicates the usefulness of the tool to the research community and shows how it can be used to establish best practices.
Gamze Ünlü, Florian Maczek, Jihoon Min, Stefan Frank, Fridolin Glatter, Paul Natsuo Kishimoto, Jan Streeck, Nina Eisenmenger, Dominik Wiedenhofer, and Volker Krey
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8321–8352, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8321-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extraction and processing of raw materials constitute a significant source of CO2 emissions in industry and so are contributors to climate change. We develop an open-source tool to assess different industry decarbonization pathways in integrated assessment models (IAMs) with a representation of material flows and stocks. We highlight the importance of expanding the scope of climate change mitigation options to include circular-economy and material efficiency measures in IAM scenario analysis.
Yongchao Zeng, Calum Brown, Mohamed Byari, Joanna Raymond, Thomas Schmitt, and Mark Rounsevell
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2661, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2661, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding environmental policy interventions is challenging due to complex institutional actor interactions. Large language models (LLMs) offer new solutions by mimicking the actors. We present InsNet-CRAFTY v1.0, a multi-LLM-agent model coupled with a land system model, simulating competing policy priorities. The model shows how LLM agents can simulate decision-making in institutional networks, highlighting both their potential and limitations in advancing land system modelling.
Mengqi Zhao, Thomas B. Wild, Neal T. Graham, Son H. Kim, Matthew Binsted, A. F. M. Kamal Chowdhury, Siwa Msangi, Pralit L. Patel, Chris R. Vernon, Hassan Niazi, Hong-Yi Li, and Guta W. Abeshu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5587–5617, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5587-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5587-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) simulates the world’s climate–land–energy–water system interactions , but its reservoir representation is limited. We developed the GLObal Reservoir Yield (GLORY) model to provide GCAM with information on the cost of supplying water based on reservoir construction costs, climate and demand conditions, and reservoir expansion potential. GLORY enhances our understanding of future reservoir capacity needs to meet human demands in a changing climate.
Tommi Ekholm, Nadine-Cyra Freistetter, Aapo Rautiainen, and Laura Thölix
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3041–3062, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3041-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3041-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
CLASH is a numerical model that portrays land allocation between different uses, land carbon stocks, and agricultural and forestry production globally. CLASH can help in examining the role of land use in mitigating climate change, providing food and biogenic raw materials for the economy, and conserving primary ecosystems. Our demonstration with CLASH confirms that reduction of animal-based food, shifting croplands and storing carbon in forests are effective ways to mitigate climate change.
Léna Gurriaran, Yannig Goude, Katsumasa Tanaka, Biqing Zhu, Zhu Deng, Xuanren Song, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2663–2682, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2663-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a data-driven model simulating daily regional power demand based on climate and socioeconomic variables. Our model was applied to eight countries or regions (Australia, Brazil, China, EU, India, Russia, South Africa, US), identifying influential factors and their relationship with power demand. Our findings highlight the significance of economic indicators in addition to temperature, showcasing country-specific variations. This research aids energy planning and emission reduction.
Chao Gao, Xuelei Zhang, Aijun Xiu, Qingqing Tong, Hongmei Zhao, Shichun Zhang, Guangyi Yang, Mengduo Zhang, and Shengjin Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2471–2492, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2471-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2471-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A comprehensive comparison study is conducted targeting the performances of three two-way coupled meteorology and air quality models (WRF-CMAQ, WRF-Chem, and WRF-CHIMERE) for eastern China during 2017. The impacts of aerosol–radiation–cloud interactions on these models’ results are evaluated against satellite and surface observations. Further improvements to the calculation of aerosol–cloud interactions in these models are crucial to ensure more accurate and timely air quality forecasts.
Utkan M. Durdağ
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2187–2196, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2187-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces a novel approach to outlier detection in geodetic networks, challenging conventional and robust methods. By treating outliers as unknown parameters within the Gauss–Markov model and exploring numerous outlier combinations, this approach prioritizes minimal variance and eliminates iteration dependencies. The mean success rate (MSR) comparisons highlight its effectiveness, improving the MSR by 40–45 % for multiple outliers.
Michaja Pehl, Felix Schreyer, and Gunnar Luderer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2015–2038, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2015-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2015-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We extend the REMIND model (used to investigate climate mitigation strategies) by an industry module that represents cement, chemical, steel, and other industries. We also present a method for deriving scenarios of industry subsector activity and energy demand, consistent with established socioeconomic scenarios, allowing us to investigate the different climate change mitigation challenges and strategies in industry subsectors in the context of the entire energy–economy–climate system.
Chen Chris Gong, Falko Ueckerdt, Robert Pietzcker, Adrian Odenweller, Wolf-Peter Schill, Martin Kittel, and Gunnar Luderer
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4977–5033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4977-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4977-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To mitigate climate change, the global economy must drastically reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, for which the power sector plays a key role. Until now, long-term models which simulate this transformation cannot always accurately depict the power sector due to a lack of resolution. Our work bridges this gap by linking a long-term model to an hourly model. The result is an almost full harmonization of the models in generating a power sector mix until 2100 with hourly resolution.
David R. Morrow, Raphael Apeaning, and Garrett Guard
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1105–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1105-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1105-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
GCAM-CDR is a variant of the Global Change Analysis Model that makes it easier to study the roles that carbon dioxide removal (CDR) might play in climate policy. Building on GCAM 5.4, GCAM-CDR adds several extra technologies to permanently remove carbon dioxide from the air and enables users to simulate a wider range of CDR-related policies and controls.
Jarmo S. Kikstra, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Christopher J. Smith, Jared Lewis, Robin D. Lamboll, Edward Byers, Marit Sandstad, Malte Meinshausen, Matthew J. Gidden, Joeri Rogelj, Elmar Kriegler, Glen P. Peters, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Bjørn H. Samset, Laura Wienpahl, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Piers M. Forster, Andy Reisinger, Roberto Schaeffer, and Keywan Riahi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9075–9109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing hundreds or thousands of emission scenarios in terms of their global mean temperature implications requires standardised procedures of infilling, harmonisation, and probabilistic temperature assessments. We here present the open-source
climate-assessmentworkflow that was used in the IPCC AR6 Working Group III report. The paper provides key insight for anyone wishing to understand the assessment of climate outcomes of mitigation pathways in the context of the Paris Agreement.
Théo Le Guenedal, Philippe Drobinski, and Peter Tankov
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8001–8039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8001-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The CATHERINA model produces simulations of cyclone-related annualized damage costs at a country level from climate data and open-source socioeconomic indicators. The framework couples statistical and physical modeling of tropical cyclones to bridge the gap between general circulation and integrated assessment models providing a precise description of tropical-cyclone-related damages.
William Atkinson, Sebastian D. Eastham, Y.-H. Henry Chen, Jennifer Morris, Sergey Paltsev, C. Adam Schlosser, and Noelle E. Selin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7767–7789, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7767-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7767-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding policy effects on human-caused air pollutant emissions is key for assessing related health impacts. We develop a flexible scenario tool that combines updated emissions data sets, long-term economic modeling, and comprehensive technology pathways to clarify the impacts of climate and air quality policies. Results show the importance of both policy levers in the future to prevent long-term emission increases from offsetting near-term air quality improvements from existing policies.
Chengyong Wu, Kelong Chen, Chongyi E, Xiaoni You, Dongcai He, Liangbai Hu, Baokang Liu, Runke Wang, Yaya Shi, Chengxiu Li, and Fumei Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6919–6933, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6919-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6919-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The traditional Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA) model driven by multisource data such as meteorology, soil, and remote sensing (RS) has notable disadvantages. We drove the CASA using RS data and conducted a case study of the Qinghai Lake basin alpine grassland. The simulated result is similar to published and measured net primary productivity (NPP). It may provide a reference for simulating vegetation NPP to satisfy the requirements of accounting carbon stocks and other applications.
Rui Ma, Jingfeng Xiao, Shunlin Liang, Han Ma, Tao He, Da Guo, Xiaobang Liu, and Haibo Lu
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6637–6657, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6637-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6637-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Parameter optimization can improve the accuracy of modeled carbon fluxes. Few studies conducted pixel-level parameterization because it requires a high computational cost. Our paper used high-quality spatial products to optimize parameters at the pixel level, and also used the machine learning method to improve the speed of optimization. The results showed that there was significant spatial variability of parameters and we also improved the spatial pattern of carbon fluxes.
Núria Pérez-Zanón, Louis-Philippe Caron, Silvia Terzago, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Llorenç Lledó, Nicolau Manubens, Emmanuel Roulin, M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro, Lauriane Batté, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Susana Corti, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Marta Domínguez, Federico Fabiano, Ignazio Giuntoli, Jost von Hardenberg, Eroteida Sánchez-García, Verónica Torralba, and Deborah Verfaillie
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6115–6142, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6115-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6115-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
CSTools (short for Climate Service Tools) is an R package that contains process-based methods for climate forecast calibration, bias correction, statistical and stochastic downscaling, optimal forecast combination, and multivariate verification, as well as basic and advanced tools to obtain tailored products. In addition to describing the structure and methods in the package, we also present three use cases to illustrate the seasonal climate forecast post-processing for specific purposes.
Olexandr Balyk, James Glynn, Vahid Aryanpur, Ankita Gaur, Jason McGuire, Andrew Smith, Xiufeng Yue, and Hannah Daly
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4991–5019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4991-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4991-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ireland has significantly increased its climate mitigation ambition, with a recent commitment to reduce greenhouse gases by an average of 7 % yr-1 in the period to 2030 and a net-zero target for 2050. This article describes the TIMES-Ireland model (TIM) developed to inform Ireland's energy system decarbonisation challenge. The paper also outlines a priority list of future model developments to better meet the challenge, taking into account equity, cost-effectiveness, and technical feasibility.
Haiyan Jiang, Slobodan P. Simonovic, and Zhongbo Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4503–4528, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4503-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4503-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Yangtze Economic Belt is one of the most dynamic regions of China. The fast urbanization and strong economic growth in the region pose severe challenges for its sustainable development. To improve our understanding of the interactions among coupled human–natural systems in the Belt and to provide the foundation for science-based policy-making for the sustainable development of the Belt, we developed an integrated system-dynamics-based simulation model (ANEMI_Yangtze) for the Belt.
Thi Lan Anh Dinh and Filipe Aires
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3519–3535, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3519-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3519-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We proposed the leave-two-out method (i.e. one particular implementation of the nested cross-validation) to determine the optimal statistical crop model (using the validation dataset) and estimate its true generalization ability (using the testing dataset). This approach is applied to two examples (robusta coffee in Cu M'gar and grain maize in France). The results suggested that the simple models are more suitable in crop modelling where a limited number of samples is available.
Matthew Binsted, Gokul Iyer, Pralit Patel, Neal T. Graham, Yang Ou, Zarrar Khan, Nazar Kholod, Kanishka Narayan, Mohamad Hejazi, Son Kim, Katherine Calvin, and Marshall Wise
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2533–2559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2533-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2533-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
GCAM-USA v5.3_water_dispatch is an open-source model that represents key interactions across economic, energy, water, and land systems in a global framework, with subnational detail in the United States. GCAM-USA can be used to explore future changes in demand for (and production of) energy, water, and crops at the state and regional level in the US. This paper describes GCAM-USA and provides four illustrative scenarios to demonstrate the model's capabilities and potential applications.
Colm Duffy, Remi Prudhomme, Brian Duffy, James Gibbons, Cathal O'Donoghue, Mary Ryan, and David Styles
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2239–2264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2239-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2239-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The GOBLIN (General Overview for a Backcasting approach of Livestock INtensification) model is a new high-resolution integrated
bottom-upbiophysical land use model capable of identifying broad pathways towards climate neutrality in the agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sector. The model is intended to bridge the gap between hindsight representations of national emissions and much larger globally integrated assessment models.
Samuel Lüthi, Gabriela Aznar-Siguan, Christopher Fairless, and David N. Bresch
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7175–7187, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7175-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7175-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In light of the dramatic increase in economic impacts due to wildfires, the need for modelling impacts of wildfire damage is ever increasing. Insurance companies, households, humanitarian organisations and governmental authorities are worried by climate risks. In this study we present an approach to modelling wildfire impacts using the open-source modelling platform CLIMADA. All input data are free, public and globally available, ensuring applicability in data-scarce regions of the Global South.
Lavinia Baumstark, Nico Bauer, Falk Benke, Christoph Bertram, Stephen Bi, Chen Chris Gong, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Alois Dirnaichner, Anastasis Giannousakis, Jérôme Hilaire, David Klein, Johannes Koch, Marian Leimbach, Antoine Levesque, Silvia Madeddu, Aman Malik, Anne Merfort, Leon Merfort, Adrian Odenweller, Michaja Pehl, Robert C. Pietzcker, Franziska Piontek, Sebastian Rauner, Renato Rodrigues, Marianna Rottoli, Felix Schreyer, Anselm Schultes, Bjoern Soergel, Dominika Soergel, Jessica Strefler, Falko Ueckerdt, Elmar Kriegler, and Gunnar Luderer
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6571–6603, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6571-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6571-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the new and open-source version 2.1 of the REgional Model of INvestments and Development (REMIND) with the aim of improving code documentation and transparency. REMIND is an integrated assessment model (IAM) of the energy-economic system. By answering questions like
Can the world keep global warming below 2 °C?and, if so,
Under what socio-economic conditions and applying what technological options?, it is the goal of REMIND to explore consistent transformation pathways.
Phillip D. Alderman
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6541–6569, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6541-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6541-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper documents a framework for accessing crop model input data directly from spatially referenced file formats and running simulations in parallel across a geographic region using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Cropping Systems Model (a widely used crop model system). The framework greatly reduced the execution time when compared to running the standard version of the model.
Abhijeet Mishra, Florian Humpenöder, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Brent Sohngen, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Hermann Lotze-Campen, and Alexander Popp
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6467–6494, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6467-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6467-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Timber plantations are an increasingly important source of roundwood production, next to harvest from natural forests. However, timber plantations are currently underrepresented in global land-use models. Here, we include timber production and plantations in the MAgPIE modeling framework. This allows one to capture the competition for land between agriculture and forestry. We show that increasing timber plantations in the coming decades partly compete with cropland for limited land resources.
Cited articles
Andrijevic, M., Crespo Cuaresma, J., Muttarak, R., and Schleussner, C. F.: Governance in socioeconomic pathways and its role for future adaptive capacity, Nat. Sustain., 3, 35–41, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0405-0, 2020.
Andrijevic, M., Schleussner, C. F., Crespo Cuaresma, J., Lissner, T., Muttarak, R., Riahi, K., Theokritoff, E., Thomas, A., van Maanen, N., and Byers, E.: Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments, Nat. Clim. Change, 13, 778–787, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01725-1, 2023.
Awais, M., Vinca, A., Byers, E., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Boere, E., Burek, P., Poblete Cazenave, M., Kishimoto, P. N., Mastrucci, A., Satoh, Y., Palazzo, A., McPherson, M., Riahi, K., and Krey, V.: MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM Nexus Module (v0.1), Zenodo [code, data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7687578, 2023.
Bacon, E., Gannon, P., Stephen, S., Seyoum-Edjigu, E., Schmidt, M., Lang, B., Sandwith, T., Xin, J., Arora, S., Adham, K. N., Espinoza, A. J. R., Qwathekana, M., Prates, A. P. L., Shestakov, A., Cooper, D., Ervin, J., Dias, B. F. de S., Leles, B., Attallah, M., Mulongoy, J., and Gidda, S. B.: Aichi Biodiversity Target 11 in the like-minded megadiverse countries, J. Nat. Conserv., 51, 125723, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JNC.2019.125723, 2019.
Balkovič, J., van der Velde, M., Skalský, R., Xiong, W., Folberth, C., Khabarov, N., Smirnov, A., Mueller, N. D., and Obersteiner, M.: Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways, Global Planet. Change, 122, 107–121, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.08.010, 2014.
Barbier, E. B.: The green economy post Rio+ 20, Science, 338, 887–888, 2012.
Burek, P., Greve, P., Wada, Y., Krey, V., Fischer, G., Parkinson, S., Tramberend, S., Byers, E., Satoh, Y., Riahi, K., Veldkamp, T. I. E., Burtscher, R., Djilali, N., Langan, S., and Kahil, T.: A Continental-Scale Hydroeconomic Model for Integrating Water-Energy-Land Nexus Solutions, Water Resour. Res., 54, 7511–7533, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017wr022478, 2018.
Burek, P., Satoh, Y., Kahil, T., Tang, T., Greve, P., Smilovic, M., Guillaumot, L., Zhao, F., and Wada, Y.: Development of the Community Water Model (CWatM v1.04) – a high-resolution hydrological model for global and regional assessment of integrated water resources management, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3267–3298, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3267-2020, 2020.
Byers, E., Gidden, M., Leclere, D., Balkovic, J., Burek, P., Ebi, K., Greve, P., Grey, D., Havlik, P., Hillers, A., Johnson, N., Kahil, T., Krey, V., Langan, S., Nakicenovic, N., Novak, R., Obersteiner, M., Pachauri, S., Palazzo, A., Parkinson, S., Rao, N. D., Rogelj, J., Satoh, Y., Wada, Y., Willaarts, B., and Riahi, K.: Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 055012, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf45, 2018.
Calvin, K., Wise, M., Clarke, L., Edmonds, J., Kyle, P., Luckow, P., and Thomson, A.: Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: initial experiments using GCAM, Clim. Change, 117, 545–560, 2013.
Dai, Z., Wu, Z., Loew, A., Jaramillo, P., and Zhai, H.: Marginal costs of water savings from cooling system retrofits: a case study for Texas power plants, Environ. Res. Lett, 11, 104004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/10/104004, 2016.
Falchetta, G., Stevanato, N., Moner-Girona, M., Mazzoni, D., Colombo, E., and Hafner, M.: The M-LED platform: advancing electricity demand assessment for communities living in energy poverty, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 074038, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/AC0CAB, 2021.
Falchetta, G., Adeleke, A., Awais, M., Byers, E., Copinschi, P., Duby, S., Hughes, A., Ireland, G., Riahi, K., Rukera-Tabaro, S., Semeria, F., Shendrikova, D., Stevanato, N., Troost, A., Tuninetti, M., Vinca, A., Zulu, A., and Hafner, M.: A renewable energy-centred research agenda for planning and financing Nexus development objectives in rural sub-Saharan Africa, Energy Strateg. Rev., 43, 100922, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ESR.2022.100922, 2022.
Fan, Y., Li, H., and Miguez-Macho, G.: Global patterns of groundwater table depth, Science, 339, 940–943, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1229881, 2013.
Frank, S., Gusti, M., Havlík, P., Lauri, P., Di Fulvio, F., Forsell, N., Hasegawa, T., Krisztin, T., Palazzo, A., and Valin, H.: Land-based climate change mitigation potentials within the agenda for sustainable development, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 024006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ABC58A, 2021.
Fricko, O., Parkinson, S. C., Johnson, N., Strubegger, M., Vliet, M. T. Van, and Riahi, K.: Energy sector water use implications of a 2° C climate policy, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 034011, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034011, 2016.
Frieler, K., Lange, S., Piontek, F., Reyer, C. P. O., Schewe, J., Warszawski, L., Zhao, F., Chini, L., Denvil, S., Emanuel, K., Geiger, T., Halladay, K., Hurtt, G., Mengel, M., Murakami, D., Ostberg, S., Popp, A., Riva, R., Stevanovic, M., Suzuki, T., Volkholz, J., Burke, E., Ciais, P., Ebi, K., Eddy, T. D., Elliott, J., Galbraith, E., Gosling, S. N., Hattermann, F., Hickler, T., Hinkel, J., Hof, C., Huber, V., Jägermeyr, J., Krysanova, V., Marcé, R., Müller Schmied, H., Mouratiadou, I., Pierson, D., Tittensor, D. P., Vautard, R., van Vliet, M., Biber, M. F., Betts, R. A., Bodirsky, B. L., Deryng, D., Frolking, S., Jones, C. D., Lotze, H. K., Lotze-Campen, H., Sahajpal, R., Thonicke, K., Tian, H., and Yamagata, Y.: Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, 2017.
Gernaat, D. E. H. J., de Boer, H. S., Daioglou, V., Yalew, S. G., Müller, C., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Climate change impacts on renewable energy supply, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 119–125, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00949-9, 2021.
Gleeson, T. and Richter, B.: How much groundwater can we pump and protect environmental flows through time? Presumptive standards for conjunctive management of aquifers and rivers, River Res. Appl., 34, 83–92, https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3185, 2018.
Global Water Intelligence: DesalData, https://www.desaldata.com/ last access: 5 May 2023), 2016.
Graham, N. T., Hejazi, M. I., Chen, M., Davies, E. G. R., Edmonds, J. A., Kim, S. H., Turner, S. W. D., Li, X., Vernon, C. R., Calvin, K., Miralles-Wilhelm, F., Clarke, L., Kyle, P., Link, R., Patel, P., Snyder, A. C., and Wise, M. A.: Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 014007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/AB639B, 2020.
Grubert, E. A.: Water consumption from hydroelectricity in the United States, Adv. Water Resour., 96, 88–94, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ADVWATRES.2016.07.004, 2016.
Haddeland, I., Heinke, J., Biemans, H., Eisner, S., Flörke, M., Hanasaki, N., Konzmann, M., Ludwig, F., Masaki, Y., Schewe, J., Stacke, T., Tessler, Z. D., Wada, Y., and Wisser, D.: Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3251–3256, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1308044111, 2014.
Harmsen, M., Kriegler, E., Van Vuuren, D. P., Van Der Wijst, K. I., Luderer, G., Cui, R., Dessens, O., Drouet, L., Emmerling, J., Morris, J. F., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, D., Fragkiadakis, K., Fragkos, P., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Gernaat, D., Guivarch, C., Iyer, G., Karkatsoulis, P., Keppo, I., Keramidas, K., Köberle, A., Kolp, P., Krey, V., Krüger, C., Leblanc, F., Mittal, S., Paltsev, S., Rochedo, P., Van Ruijven, B. J., Sands, R. D., Sano, F., Strefler, J., Arroyo, E. V., Wada, K., and Zakeri, B.: Integrated assessment model diagnostics: key indicators and model evolution, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 054046, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ABF964, 2021.
Havlík, P., Valin, H., Herrero, M., Obersteiner, M., Schmid, E., Rufino, M. C., Mosnier, A., Thornton, P. K., Böttcher, H., Conant, R. T., Frank, S., Fritz, S., Fuss, S., Kraxner, F., and Notenbaert, A.: Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3709–3714, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-017-0166-z, 2014.
Hejazi, M. I., Edmonds, J., Clarke, L., Kyle, P., Davies, E., Chaturvedi, V., Wise, M., Patel, P., Eom, J., and Calvin, K.: Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2859–2883, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2859-2014, 2014.
Howard, P. H. and Sterner, T.: Few and Not So Far Between: A Meta-analysis of Climate Damage Estimates, Environ. Resour. Econ., 68, 197–225, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-017-0166-z, 2017.
Huppmann, D., Rogelj, J., Kriegler, E., Krey, V., and Riahi, K.: A new scenario resource for integrated 1.5 C research, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 1027–1030, 2018.
Huppmann, D., Gidden, M., Fricko, O., Kolp, P., Orthofer, C., Pimmer, M., Kushin, N., Vinca, A., Mastrucci, A., Riahi, K., and Krey, V.: The MESSAGEix Integrated Assessment Model and the ix modeling platform (ixmp): An open framework for integrated and cross-cutting analysis of energy, climate, the environment, and sustainable development, Environ. Model. Softw., 143–156, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.11.012, 2019.
Jägermeyr, J., Müller, C., Ruane, A. C., Elliott, J., Balkovic, J., Castillo, O., Faye, B., Foster, I., Folberth, C., Franke, J. A., Fuchs, K., Guarin, J. R., Heinke, J., Hoogenboom, G., Iizumi, T., Jain, A. K., Kelly, D., Khabarov, N., Lange, S., Lin, T. S., Liu, W., Mialyk, O., Minoli, S., Moyer, E. J., Okada, M., Phillips, M., Porter, C., Rabin, S. S., Scheer, C., Schneider, J. M., Schyns, J. F., Skalsky, R., Smerald, A., Stella, T., Stephens, H., Webber, H., Zabel, F., and Rosenzweig, C.: Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models, Nat. Food, 2, 873–885, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y, 2021.
Jones, E. R., van Vliet, M. T. H., Qadir, M., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Country-level and gridded estimates of wastewater production, collection, treatment and reuse, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 237–254, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-237-2021, 2021.
Kapos Ravilious, C., Campbell, A., Dickson, B., Gibbs, H., Hansen, M., Lysenko, I., Miles, L., Price, J., Scharlemann, J. P. W., and Trumpe,r K.: Carbon and biodiversity, A demonstration atlas, UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge, UK, 2008.
Khan, Z., Linares, P., and García-González, J.: Integrating water and energy models for policy driven applications. A review of contemporary work and recommendations for future developments, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 67, 1123–1138, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.08.043, 2017.
Khan, Z., Linares, P., Rutten, M., Parkinson, S., Johnson, N., and García-González, J.: Spatial and temporal synchronization of water and energy systems: Towards a single integrated optimization model for long-term resource planning, Appl. Energ., 210, 499–517, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.05.003, 2018.
Kikstra, J. S., Mastrucci, A., Min, J., Riahi, K., and Rao, N. D.: Decent living gaps and energy needs around the world, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 095006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/AC1C27, 2021.
Kim, S. H., Hejazi, M., Liu, L., Calvin, K., Clarke, L., Edmonds, J., Kyle, P., Patel, P., Wise, M., and Davies, E.: Balancing global water availability and use at basin scale in an integrated assessment model, Clim. Change, 136, 217–231, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1604-6, 2016.
Kindermann, G. E., McCallum, I., Fritz, S., and Obersteiner, M.: A global forest growing stock, biomass and carbon map based on FAO statistics, Silva Fenn., 42, 387–396, https://doi.org/10.14214/SF.244, 2008.
Korkovelos, A., Khavari, B., Sahlberg, A., Howells, M., and Arderne, C.: The Role of Open Access Data in Geospatial Electrification Planning and the Achievement of SDG7. An OnSSET-Based Case Study for Malawi, Energies, 12, 1395, https://doi.org/10.3390/EN12071395, 2019.
Krey, V., Havlik, P., Kishimoto, P. N., Fricko, O., Zilliacus, J., Gidden, M., Strubegger, M., Kartasasmita, G., Ermolieva, T., Forsell, N., Gusti, M., Johnson, N., Kikstra, J., Kindermann, G., Kolp, P., Lovat, F., McCollum, D. L., Min, J., Pachauri, S., Parkinson, S. C., Rao, S., Rogelj, J., Ünlü, H., Valin, G., Wagner, P., Zakeri, B., Obersteiner, M., and Riahi, K.: MESSAGE-GLOBIOM 1.0 Documentation, https://doi.org/10.22022/iacc/03-2021.17115, 2016.
Lehner, B., Verdin, K., and Jarvis, A.: New global hydrography derived from spaceborne elevation data, Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 89, 93–94, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008eo100001, 2008.
Liu, Y., Hejazi, M., Kyle, P., Kim, S. H., Davies, E., Miralles, D. G., Teuling, A. J., He, Y., and Niyogi, D.: Global and regional evaluation of energy for water, Environ. Sci. Technol., 50, 9736–9745, https://doi.org/10.1021/ACS.EST.6B01065, 2016.
Mastrucci, A., Byers, E., Pachauri, S., and Rao, N. D.: Improving the SDG energy poverty targets: Residential cooling needs in the Global South, Energy Build, 186, 405–415, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENBUILD.2019.01.015, 2019.
Mastrucci, A., van Ruijven, B., Byers, E., Poblete-Cazenave, M., and Pachauri, S.: Global scenarios of residential heating and cooling energy demand and CO2 emissions, Clim. Change, 168, 1–26, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03229-3, 2021.
Meinshausen, M., Raper, S. C. B., and Wigley, T. M. L.: Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 1: Model description and calibration, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 1417–1456, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-1417-2011, 2011.
Meldrum, J., Nettles-Anderson, S., Heath, G., and Macknick, J.: Life cycle water use for electricity generation: a review and harmonization of literature estimates, Environ. Rese. Lett., 8, 015031, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/015031, 2013a.
Meldrum, J., Nettles-Anderson, S., Heath, G., and Macknick, J.: Life cycle water use for electricity generation: a review and harmonization of literature estimates, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 015031, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/015031, 2013b.
Mohan, C., Western, A. W., Wei, Y., and Saft, M.: Predicting groundwater recharge for varying land cover and climate conditions – a global meta-study, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2689–2703, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2689-2018, 2018.
Müller, C. and Robertson, R. D.: Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling, Agr. Econ., 45, 37–50, https://doi.org/10.1111/AGEC.12088, 2014.
O'Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K. L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K., Rothman, D. S., van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D. P., Birkmann, J., Kok, K., Levy, M., and Solecki, W.: The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century, Global Environ. Change, 42, 169–180, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004, 2017.
Orthofer, C. L., Huppmann, D., and Krey, V.: South Africa after Paris-fracking its way to the NDCs?, Front. Energy Res., 7, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2019.00020, 2019.
Pachauri, S., Poblete-Cazenave, M., Aktas, A., and Gidden, M. J.: Access to clean cooking services in energy and emission scenarios after COVID-19, Nature Energy, 6, 1067–1076, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00911-9, 2021.
Palazzo, A., Valin, H., Batka, M., and Havlík, P.: Investment Needs for Irrigation Infrastructure along Different Socioeconomic Pathways, Investment Needs for Irrigation Infrastructure along Different Socioeconomic Pathways, Policy Research Working Paper, No. 8744, World Bank, Washington, DC., https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8744, 2019.
Parkinson, S., Krey, V., Huppmann, D., Kahil, T., McCollum, D., Fricko, O., Byers, E., Gidden, M. J., Mayor, B., Khan, Z., Raptis, C., Rao, N. D., Johnson, N., Wada, Y., Djilali, N., and Riahi, K.: Balancing clean water-climate change mitigation trade-offs, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 014009, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf2a3, 2019.
Parkinson, S. C., Makowski, M., Krey, V., Sedraoui, K., Almasoud, A. H., and Djilali, N.: A multi-criteria model analysis framework for assessing integrated water-energy system transformation pathways, Appl. Energ., 210, 477–486, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.12.142, 2018.
Parry, M. L. and Carter, T. R.: Climate impact assessment: A review of some approaches, Planning for Drought: Toward A Reduction of Societal Vulnerability, Planning for Drought, 165–187, https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429301735-13, 2019.
Pastor, A. V., Ludwig, F., Biemans, H., Hoff, H., and Kabat, P.: Accounting for environmental flow requirements in global water assessments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5041–5059, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5041-2014, 2014.
Pastor, A. V., Palazzo, A., Havlik, P., Biemans, H., Wada, Y., Obersteiner, M., Kabat, P., and Ludwig, F.: The global nexus of food–trade–water sustaining environmental flows by 2050, Nat. Sustain., 2, 499–507, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0287-1, 2019.
Patt, A. G., van Vuuren, D. P., Berkhout, F., Aaheim, A., Hof, A. F., Isaac, M., and Mechler, R.: Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: Where do we stand?, Clim. Change, 99, 383–402, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9687-y, 2010.
Piontek, F., Drouet, L., Emmerling, J., Kompas, T., Méjean, A., Otto, C., Rising, J., Soergel, B., Taconet, N., and Tavoni, M.: Integrated perspective on translating biophysical to economic impacts of climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 563–572, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01065-y, 2021.
Platts Market Data – Electric Power | S&P Global Commodity Insights, https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/products-services/electric-power/market-data-power, last access: 18 July 2022.
Poblete-Cazenave, M. and Pachauri, S.: A structural model of cooking fuel choices in developing countries, Energ. Econ., 75, 449–463, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENECO.2018.09.003, 2018.
Poblete-Cazenave, M. and Pachauri, S.: A model of energy poverty and access: Estimating household electricity demand and appliance ownership, Energ. Econ., 98, 105266, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENECO.2021.105266, 2021.
Poblete-Cazenave, M., Pachauri, S., Byers, E., Mastrucci, A., and van Ruijven, B.: Global scenarios of household access to modern energy services under climate mitigation policy, Nat. Energ., 6, 824–833, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00871-0, 2021.
Prudhomme, C., Giuntoli, I., Robinson, E. L., Clark, D. B., Arnell, N. W., Dankers, R., Fekete, B. M., Franssen, W., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Hagemann, S., Hannah, D. M., Kim, H., Masaki, Y., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Wada, Y., and Wisser, D.: Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3262–3267, https://doi.org/10.1073/PNAS.1222473110, 2014.
Qadir, M., Drechsel, P., Jiménez Cisneros, B., Kim, Y., Pramanik, A., Mehta, P., and Olaniyan, O.: Global and regional potential of wastewater as a water, nutrient and energy source, Nat. Resour. Forum, 44, 40–51, https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-8947.12187, 2020.
Raptis, C. E., Van Vliet, M. T. H., and Pfister, S.: Global thermal pollution of rivers from thermoelectric power plants, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 104011, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/10/104011, 2016.
Rasul, G.: Managing the food, water, and energy nexus for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in South Asia, Environ. Dev., 18, 14–25, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2015.12.001, 2016.
Rasul, G. and Sharma, B.: The nexus approach to water – energy – food security: an option for adaptation to climate change an option for adaptation to climate change, Clim. Policy, 16, 682–702, https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2015.1029865, 2016.
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O'Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp, A., Cuaresma, J. C., KC, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S., Emmerling, J., Ebi, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Da Silva, L. A., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Bosetti, V., Eom, J., Gernaat, D., Masui, T., Rogelj, J., Strefler, J., Drouet, L., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Harmsen, M., Takahashi, K., Baumstark, L., Doelman, J. C., Kainuma, M., Klimont, Z., Marangoni, G., Lotze-Campen, H., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A., and Tavoni, M.: The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview, Global Environ. Change, 42, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009, 2017.
Riahi, K., Bertram, C., Huppmann, D., Rogelj, J., Bosetti, V., Cabardos, A. M., Deppermann, A., Drouet, L., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Harmsen, M., Hasegawa, T., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Paroussos, L., Schaeffer, R., Weitzel, M., van der Zwaan, B., Vrontisi, Z., Longa, F. D., Després, J., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, K., Gusti, M., Humpenöder, F., Keramidas, K., Kishimoto, P., Kriegler, E., Meinshausen, M., Nogueira, L. P., Oshiro, K., Popp, A., Rochedo, P. R. R., Ünlü, G., van Ruijven, B., Takakura, J., Tavoni, M., van Vuuren, D., and Zakeri, B.: Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 1063–1069, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01215-2, 2021.
Satoh, Y., Yoshimura, K., Pokhrel, Y., Kim, H., Shiogama, H., Yokohata, T., Hanasaki, N., Wada, Y., Burek, P., Byers, E., Schmied, H. M., Gerten, D., Ostberg, S., Gosling, S. N., Boulange, J. E. S., and Oki, T.: The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change, Nat. Commun., 13, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30729-2, 2022.
Schleussner, C.-F., Pfleiderer, P., Andrijevic, M., Vogel, M. M., Otto, F. E. L., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Pathways of climate resilience over the 21st century, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 054058, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abed79, 2021.
Schultes, A., Piontek, F., Soergel, B., Rogelj, J., Baumstark, L., Kriegler, E., Edenhofer, O., and Luderer, G.: Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 104053, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/AC27CE, 2021.
Soergel, B., Kriegler, E., Weindl, I., Rauner, S., Dirnaichner, A., Ruhe, C., Hofmann, M., Bauer, N., Bertram, C., Bodirsky, B. L., Leimbach, M., Leininger, J., Levesque, A., Luderer, G., Pehl, M., Wingens, C., Baumstark, L., Beier, F., Dietrich, J. P., Humpenöder, F., von Jeetze, P., Klein, D., Koch, J., Pietzcker, R., Strefler, J., Lotze-Campen, H., and Popp, A.: A sustainable development pathway for climate action within the UN 2030 Agenda, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 656–664, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01098-3, 2021.
Sutanudjaja, E. H., van Beek, R., Wanders, N., Wada, Y., Bosmans, J. H. C., Drost, N., van der Ent, R. J., de Graaf, I. E. M., Hoch, J. M., de Jong, K., Karssenberg, D., López López, P., Peßenteiner, S., Schmitz, O., Straatsma, M. W., Vannametee, E., Wisser, D., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: PCR-GLOBWB 2: a 5 arcmin global hydrological and water resources model, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2429–2453, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2429-2018, 2018.
Tuninetti, M., Tamea, S., D'Odorico, P., Laio, F., and Ridolfi, L.: Global sensitivity of high-resolution estimates of crop water footprint, Water Resour. Res., 51, 8257–8272, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017148, 2015.
Vinca, A., Parkinson, S., Byers, E., Burek, P., Khan, Z., Krey, V., Diuana, F. A., Wang, Y., Ilyas, A., Köberle, A. C., Staffell, I., Pfenninger, S., Muhammad, A., Rowe, A., Schaeffer, R., Rao, N. D., Wada, Y., Djilali, N., and Riahi, K.: The NExus Solutions Tool (NEST) v1.0: an open platform for optimizing multi-scale energy–water–land system transformations, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1095–1121, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1095-2020, 2020.
van Maanen, N., Lissner, T., Harmsen, M., Piontek, F., Andrijevic, M., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Representation of adaptation in quantitative climate assessments, Nat. Clim. Change, 13, 309–311, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01644-1, 2023.
van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J. F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S. J., and Rose, S. K.: The representative concentration pathways: An overview, Clim. Change, 109, 5–31, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z, 2011.
Wada, Y., Wisser, D., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Global modeling of withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of surface water and groundwater resources, Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 15–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-15-2014, 2014.
Wada, Y., Flörke, M., Hanasaki, N., Eisner, S., Fischer, G., Tramberend, S., Satoh, Y., van Vliet, M. T. H., Yillia, P., Ringler, C., Burek, P., and Wiberg, D.: Modeling global water use for the 21st century: the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 175–222, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-175-2016, 2016.
Wang, T. and Sun, F.: Global gridded GDP data set consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways, Sci. Data, 9, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01300-x, 2022.
Wang, X., Zhang, J., Shahid, S., Guan, E., Wu, Y., Gao, J., and He, R.: Adaptation to climate change impacts on water demand, Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Gl., 21, 81–99, 2016.
Weyant, J.: Some contributions of integrated assessment models of global climate change, Rev. Environ. Econ. Policy, 11, 115–137, 2017.
Yalew, S. G., van Vliet, M. T. H., Gernaat, D. E. H. J., Ludwig, F., Miara, A., Park, C., Byers, E., De Cian, E., Piontek, F., Iyer, G., Mouratiadou, I., Glynn, J., Hejazi, M., Dessens, O., Rochedo, P., Pietzcker, R., Schaeffer, R., Fujimori, S., Dasgupta, S., Mima, S., da Silva, S. R. S., Chaturvedi, V., Vautard, R., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Impacts of climate change on energy systems in global and regional scenarios, Nat. Energ., 5, 794–802, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0664-z, 2020.
Yates, D. N.: Approaches to continental scale runoff for integrated assessment models, J. Hydrol., 201, 289–310, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00044-9, 1997.
Short summary
Climate change, population growth, and depletion of natural resources all pose complex and interconnected challenges. Our research offers a novel model that can help in understanding the interplay of these aspects, providing policymakers with a more robust tool for making informed future decisions. The study highlights the significance of incorporating climate impacts within large-scale global integrated assessments, which can help us in generating more climate-resilient scenarios.
Climate change, population growth, and depletion of natural resources all pose complex and...
