Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1789-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1789-2024
Model description paper
 | 
29 Feb 2024
Model description paper |  | 29 Feb 2024

Accounting for uncertainties in forecasting tropical-cyclone-induced compound flooding

Kees Nederhoff, Maarten van Ormondt, Jay Veeramony, Ap van Dongeren, José Antonio Álvarez Antolínez, Tim Leijnse, and Dano Roelvink

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Cited articles

Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F.: GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013. 
Ayyad, M., Orton, P. M., El Safty, H., Chen, Z., and Hajj, M. R.: Ensemble forecast for storm tide and resurgence from Tropical Cyclone Isaias, Weather Clim. Extrem., 38, 100504, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100504, 2022. 
Bakker, T. M., Antolínez, J. A. A., Leijnse, T., Pearson, S. G., and Giardino, A.: Estimating tropical cyclone-induced wind, waves, and surge: A general methodology based on representative tracks, Coast. Eng., 176, 104154, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2022.104154, 2022. 
Brackins, J. T. and Kalyanapu, A. J.: Evaluation of parametric precipitation models in reproducing tropical cyclone rainfall patterns, J. Hydrol., 580, 124255, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124255, 2020. 
Cangialosi, J. P., Blake, E., Demaria, M., Penny, A., Latto, A., Rappaport, E., and Tallapragada, V.: Recent progress in tropical cyclone intensity forecasting at the national hurricane center, Weather Forecast., 35, 1913–1922, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0059.1, 2020. 
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Short summary

Forecasting tropical cyclones and their flooding impact is challenging. Our research introduces the Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Framework (TC-FF), enhancing cyclone predictions despite uncertainties. TC-FF generates global wind and flood scenarios, valuable even in data-limited regions. Applied to cases like Cyclone Idai, it showcases potential in bettering disaster preparation, marking progress in handling cyclone threats.