Articles | Volume 15, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8613-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8613-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model experiment description paper
| 
25 Nov 2022
Model experiment description paper |
| 25 Nov 2022
| 25 Nov 2022
The Baltic Sea Model Intercomparison Project (BMIP) – a platform for model development, evaluation, and uncertainty assessment
Matthias Gröger
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz
Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock 18119, Germany
Manja Placke
IT Department, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research
Warnemünde, Rostock 18119, Germany
H. E. Markus Meier
Department of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz
Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock 18119, Germany
Research and Development Department, Swedish Meteorological and
Hydrological Institute, Norrköping 60176, Sweden
Florian Börgel
Department of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz
Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock 18119, Germany
Sandra-Esther Brunnabend
Research and Development Department, Swedish Meteorological and
Hydrological Institute, Norrköping 60176, Sweden
Cyril Dutheil
Department of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz
Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock 18119, Germany
Ulf Gräwe
Department of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz
Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock 18119, Germany
Magnus Hieronymus
Research and Development Department, Swedish Meteorological and
Hydrological Institute, Norrköping 60176, Sweden
Thomas Neumann
Department of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz
Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock 18119, Germany
Hagen Radtke
Department of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz
Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock 18119, Germany
Semjon Schimanke
Research and Development Department, Swedish Meteorological and
Hydrological Institute, Norrköping 60176, Sweden
Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen,
Denmark
Germo Väli
Department of Marine Systems, Tallinn University of Technology,
Tallinn, Estonia
Related authors
Florian Börgel, Itzel Ruvalcaba Baroni, Leonie Barghorn, Leonard Borchert, Bronwyn Cahill, Cyril Dutheil, Leonie Esters, Malgorzata Falarz, Helena L. Filipsson, Matthias Gröger, Jari Hänninen, Magnus Hieronymus, Erko Jakobsen, Mehdi Pasha Karami, Karol Kulinski, Taavi Liblik, H. E. Markus Meier, Gabriele Messori, Lev Naumov, Thomas Neumann, Piia Post, Gregor Rehder, Anna Rutgersson, and Georg Sebastian Voelker
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5496, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5496, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
This review explains how weather patterns, guided by the polar jet stream, influence the Baltic Sea’s climate and ecosystem. It covers the NAO, blocking events and other processes and discusses how they affect temperature, rainfall, and storms from days to decades. These shifts then impact oxygen levels, productivity, and acidification in the Baltic Sea. Physical links are fairly well known, but biogeochemical pathways remain uncertain.
Jenny Hieronymus, Magnus Hieronymus, Matthias Gröger, Jörg Schwinger, Raffaele Bernadello, Etienne Tourigny, Valentina Sicardi, Itzel Ruvalcaba Baroni, and Klaus Wyser
Biogeosciences, 21, 2189–2206, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2189-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2189-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The timing of the net primary production annual maxima in the North Atlantic in the period 1750–2100 is investigated using two Earth system models and the high-emissions scenario SSP5-8.5. It is found that, for most of the region, the annual maxima occur progressively earlier, with the most change occurring after the year 2000. Shifts in the seasonality of the primary production may impact the entire ecosystem, which highlights the need for long-term monitoring campaigns in this area.
Itzel Ruvalcaba Baroni, Elin Almroth-Rosell, Lars Axell, Sam T. Fredriksson, Jenny Hieronymus, Magnus Hieronymus, Sandra-Esther Brunnabend, Matthias Gröger, Ivan Kuznetsov, Filippa Fransner, Robinson Hordoir, Saeed Falahat, and Lars Arneborg
Biogeosciences, 21, 2087–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2087-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2087-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The health of the Baltic and North seas is threatened due to high anthropogenic pressure; thus, different methods to assess the status of these regions are urgently needed. Here, we validated a novel model simulating the ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry of the Baltic and North seas that can be used to create future climate and nutrient scenarios, contribute to European initiatives on de-eutrophication, and provide water quality advice and support on nutrient load reductions for both seas.
Sven Karsten, Hagen Radtke, Matthias Gröger, Ha T. M. Ho-Hagemann, Hossein Mashayekh, Thomas Neumann, and H. E. Markus Meier
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1689–1708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the development of a regional Earth System Model for the Baltic Sea region. In contrast to conventional coupling approaches, the presented model includes a flux calculator operating on a common exchange grid. This approach automatically ensures a locally consistent treatment of fluxes and simplifies the exchange of model components. The presented model can be used for various scientific questions, such as studies of natural variability and ocean–atmosphere interactions.
Dmitry V. Sein, Anton Y. Dvornikov, Stanislav D. Martyanov, William Cabos, Vladimir A. Ryabchenko, Matthias Gröger, Daniela Jacob, Alok Kumar Mishra, and Pankaj Kumar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 809–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-809-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-809-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of the marine biogeochemical variability upon the South Asian regional climate has been investigated. In the experiment where its full impact is activated, the average sea surface temperature is lower over most of the ocean. When the biogeochemical coupling is included, the main impacts include the enhanced phytoplankton primary production, a shallower thermocline, decreased SST and water temperature in subsurface layers.
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
Matthias Gröger, Christian Dieterich, Cyril Dutheil, H. E. Markus Meier, and Dmitry V. Sein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 613–631, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-613-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-613-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric rivers transport high amounts of water from subtropical regions to Europe. They are an important driver of heavy precipitation and flooding. Their response to a warmer future climate in Europe has so far been assessed only by global climate models. In this study, we apply for the first time a high-resolution regional climate model that allow to better resolve and understand the fate of atmospheric rivers over Europe.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in the climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
H. E. Markus Meier, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Cyril Dutheil, Florian Börgel, Kseniia Safonova, Ole B. Christensen, and Erik Kjellström
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 159–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In addition to environmental pressures such as eutrophication, overfishing and contaminants, climate change is believed to have an important impact on the marine environment in the future, and marine management should consider the related risks. Hence, we have compared and assessed available scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea and found considerable uncertainties of the projections caused by the underlying assumptions and model biases, in particular for the water and biogeochemical cycles.
Ole Bøssing Christensen, Erik Kjellström, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, and Hans Eberhard Markus Meier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 133–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Baltic Sea Region is very sensitive to climate change, whose impacts could easily exacerbate biodiversity stress from society and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. Therefore, there has been a focus on estimations of future climate change and its impacts in recent research. Models show a strong warming, in particular in the north in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase in the whole region apart from the south during summer. New results improve estimates of future climate change.
Matthias Gröger, Christian Dieterich, Jari Haapala, Ha Thi Minh Ho-Hagemann, Stefan Hagemann, Jaromir Jakacki, Wilhelm May, H. E. Markus Meier, Paul A. Miller, Anna Rutgersson, and Lichuan Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 939–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-939-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-939-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Regional climate studies are typically pursued by single Earth system component models (e.g., ocean models and atmosphere models). These models are driven by prescribed data which hamper the simulation of feedbacks between Earth system components. To overcome this, models were developed that interactively couple model components and allow an adequate simulation of Earth system interactions important for climate. This article reviews recent developments of such models for the Baltic Sea region.
Florian Börgel, Itzel Ruvalcaba Baroni, Leonie Barghorn, Leonard Borchert, Bronwyn Cahill, Cyril Dutheil, Leonie Esters, Malgorzata Falarz, Helena L. Filipsson, Matthias Gröger, Jari Hänninen, Magnus Hieronymus, Erko Jakobsen, Mehdi Pasha Karami, Karol Kulinski, Taavi Liblik, H. E. Markus Meier, Gabriele Messori, Lev Naumov, Thomas Neumann, Piia Post, Gregor Rehder, Anna Rutgersson, and Georg Sebastian Voelker
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5496, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5496, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
This review explains how weather patterns, guided by the polar jet stream, influence the Baltic Sea’s climate and ecosystem. It covers the NAO, blocking events and other processes and discusses how they affect temperature, rainfall, and storms from days to decades. These shifts then impact oxygen levels, productivity, and acidification in the Baltic Sea. Physical links are fairly well known, but biogeochemical pathways remain uncertain.
Niels Agertoft, Jian Su, Jonas Wied Pedersen, Ida Margrethe Ringgaard, and Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4466, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4466, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) drive severe weather and cause significant socio-economic impacts. We present ImpactETC1.0, a framework that identifies ETC tracks and links them to local impacts, here storm surges. It uses global optimisation, BLOB analysis, and automated calibration to improve tracking quality and identify impact-relevant tracks. Applied to CERRA data, it produced longer, more consistent tracks at low cost. Results show ImpactETC1.0 enables efficient, impact-focused ETC tracking.
Kai Salm, Germo Väli, Taavi Liblik, and Urmas Lips
Ocean Sci., 21, 2555–2577, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2555-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2555-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the presence of submesoscale processes depends on atmospheric forcing and is evident in both glider observations and high-resolution numerical simulations. Peak submesoscale variability was found near the base of the upper mixed layer in spring and within the thermocline in summer. Coastal upwelling and topographically induced frontal instabilities likely drove subduction and the downward transport of surface waters and tracers.
Lars Arneborg, Magnus Hieronymus, Per Pemberton, Ye Liu, and Sam T. Fredriksson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4735, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change influences estuaries and their ecosystems not only by rising temperatures but also by salinity changes. This modeling study highlights the magnitude and causes of the Baltic Sea salinity sensitivity to fresh water forcing and changed ocean salinity. The large sensitivity to increased fresh water forcing is shown to be caused by dilution of fresh water within the estuary, recirculation of much of the outflow water back into the estuary, as well as decreasing inflows of ocean water.
Robinson Hordoir, Jarle Berntsen, Magnus Hieronymus, Per Pemberton, and Hjalmar Hatun
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4288, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Dense water created in high latitude regions flows at the bottom of the ocean, from one basin to the next, and contributes to the global ocean circulation. The flow between shallow and deeper basins occurs at straits such as the Faeroe Bank Channel as underwater streams of dense water. Their representation in ocean models is problematic. In the present article, we use a mathematical formulation of dense water plumes to show that the representation of these dense overflows can be improved.
Marvin Lorenz, Katri Viigand, and Ulf Gräwe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1439–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1439-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1439-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study divides the sea level components that contribute to extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea into three parts: the filling state of the Baltic Sea, seiches, and storm surges. In the western part of the Baltic Sea, storm surges are the main factor, while in the central and northern parts, the filling state plays a larger role. Using a numerical model, we show that wind and air pressure are the main drivers of these events, with Atlantic sea level also playing a small role.
Seuri Basilio Kuosmanen and Magnus Hieronymus
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1257, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the annual maximum sea levels for the coastal regions in the Baltic Sea and parts of the North Sea. The study aimed to reduce the quantified uncertainty and produce estimates at locations with no tide gauges data. Comparing four statistical models and a baseline model, we concluded that the spatial hierarchical models, which leverages spatial dependency, reduced the uncertainty for higher/lower probability events compared to the other models for locations with or without observations.
Florian Börgel, Sven Karsten, Karoline Rummel, and Ulf Gräwe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2005–2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2005-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2005-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting river runoff, which is crucial for managing water resources and understanding climate impacts, can be challenging. This study introduces a new method using convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) networks, a machine learning model that processes spatial and temporal data. Focusing on the Baltic Sea region, our model uses weather data as input to predict daily river runoff for 97 rivers.
Thomas Neumann, Gerald Schernewski, and René Friedland
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3734, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3734, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a 3D ecosystem model to the Oder Lagoon in the Baltic Sea and found that 30 % of nitrogen and 10 % of phosphorus are retained in the lagoon before entering the Baltic Sea. This is important for coarse-grained models that do not resolve such coastal structures. Moreover, the coastal filter supports the mitigation of eutrophication in the Baltic Sea.
José A. Jiménez, Gundula Winter, Antonio Bonaduce, Michael Depuydt, Giulia Galluccio, Bart van den Hurk, H. E. Markus Meier, Nadia Pinardi, Lavinia G. Pomarico, and Natalia Vazquez Riveiros
State Planet, 3-slre1, 3, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-3-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-3-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise (SLR) has done a scoping study involving stakeholders from government and academia to identify gaps and needs in SLR information, impacts, and policies across Europe. Gaps in regional SLR projections and uncertainties were found, while concerns were raised about shoreline erosion and emerging problems like saltwater intrusion and ineffective adaptation plans. The need for improved communication to make better decisions on SLR adaptation was highlighted.
Angélique Melet, Roderik van de Wal, Angel Amores, Arne Arns, Alisée A. Chaigneau, Irina Dinu, Ivan D. Haigh, Tim H. J. Hermans, Piero Lionello, Marta Marcos, H. E. Markus Meier, Benoit Meyssignac, Matthew D. Palmer, Ronja Reese, Matthew J. R. Simpson, and Aimée B. A. Slangen
State Planet, 3-slre1, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The EU Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise’s Assessment Report strives to synthesize the current scientific knowledge on sea level rise and its impacts across local, national, and EU scales to support evidence-based policy and decision-making, primarily targeting coastal areas. This paper complements IPCC reports by documenting the state of knowledge of observed and 21st century projected changes in mean and extreme sea levels with more regional information for EU seas as scoped with stakeholders.
Taavi Liblik, Daniel Rak, Enriko Siht, Germo Väli, Johannes Karstensen, Laura Tuomi, Louise C. Biddle, Madis-Jaak Lilover, Māris Skudra, Michael Naumann, Urmas Lips, and Volker Mohrholz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2272, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Eight current meters were deployed to the seafloor across the Baltic to enhance knowledge about circulation and currents. The experiment was complemented by autonomous vehicles. Stable circulation patterns were observed at the sea when weather was steady. Strong and quite persistent currents were observed at the key passage for the deep-water renewal of the Northern Baltic Sea. Deep water renewal mostly occurs during spring and summer periods in the northern Baltic Sea.
Jenny Hieronymus, Magnus Hieronymus, Matthias Gröger, Jörg Schwinger, Raffaele Bernadello, Etienne Tourigny, Valentina Sicardi, Itzel Ruvalcaba Baroni, and Klaus Wyser
Biogeosciences, 21, 2189–2206, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2189-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2189-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The timing of the net primary production annual maxima in the North Atlantic in the period 1750–2100 is investigated using two Earth system models and the high-emissions scenario SSP5-8.5. It is found that, for most of the region, the annual maxima occur progressively earlier, with the most change occurring after the year 2000. Shifts in the seasonality of the primary production may impact the entire ecosystem, which highlights the need for long-term monitoring campaigns in this area.
Itzel Ruvalcaba Baroni, Elin Almroth-Rosell, Lars Axell, Sam T. Fredriksson, Jenny Hieronymus, Magnus Hieronymus, Sandra-Esther Brunnabend, Matthias Gröger, Ivan Kuznetsov, Filippa Fransner, Robinson Hordoir, Saeed Falahat, and Lars Arneborg
Biogeosciences, 21, 2087–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2087-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2087-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The health of the Baltic and North seas is threatened due to high anthropogenic pressure; thus, different methods to assess the status of these regions are urgently needed. Here, we validated a novel model simulating the ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry of the Baltic and North seas that can be used to create future climate and nutrient scenarios, contribute to European initiatives on de-eutrophication, and provide water quality advice and support on nutrient load reductions for both seas.
Sven Karsten, Hagen Radtke, Matthias Gröger, Ha T. M. Ho-Hagemann, Hossein Mashayekh, Thomas Neumann, and H. E. Markus Meier
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1689–1708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the development of a regional Earth System Model for the Baltic Sea region. In contrast to conventional coupling approaches, the presented model includes a flux calculator operating on a common exchange grid. This approach automatically ensures a locally consistent treatment of fluxes and simplifies the exchange of model components. The presented model can be used for various scientific questions, such as studies of natural variability and ocean–atmosphere interactions.
Henry C. Bittig, Erik Jacobs, Thomas Neumann, and Gregor Rehder
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 753–773, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-753-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-753-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a pCO2 climatology of the Baltic Sea using a new approach to extrapolate from individual observations to the entire Baltic Sea. The extrapolation approach uses (a) a model to inform on how data at one location are connected to data at other locations, together with (b) very accurate pCO2 observations from 2003 to 2021 as the base data. The climatology can be used e.g. to assess uptake and release of CO2 or to identify extreme events.
Marvin Lorenz and Ulf Gräwe
Ocean Sci., 19, 1753–1771, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1753-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1753-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We study the variability of extreme sea levels in a 13 member hindcast ensemble for the Baltic Sea. The ensemble mean shows good agreement with observations regarding return levels and trends. However, we find great variability and uncertainty within the ensemble. We argue that the variability of storms in the atmospheric data directly translates into the variability of the return levels. These results highlight the need for large regional ensembles to minimise uncertainties.
Jurjen Rooze, Heewon Jung, and Hagen Radtke
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7107–7121, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7107-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7107-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical particles in nature have properties such as age or reactivity. Distributions can describe the properties of chemical concentrations. In nature, they are affected by mixing processes, such as chemical diffusion, burrowing animals, and bottom trawling. We derive equations for simulating the effect of mixing on central moments that describe the distributions. We then demonstrate applications in which these equations are used to model continua in disturbed natural environments.
Thomas Spangehl, Michael Borsche, Deborah Niermann, Frank Kaspar, Semjon Schimanke, Susanne Brienen, Thomas Möller, and Maren Brast
Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 109–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-109-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The quality of the global reanalysis ERA5, the regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6 and a successor version (R6G2), the new Copernicus European Regional Re-Analysis (CERRA) and a regional downscaling simulation with COSMO-CLM (HoKliSim-De) is assessed for offshore wind farm planning in the German Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the North Sea. The quality is assessed using in-situ wind measurements at the research platform FINO1 and satellite-based data of the near-surface wind speed as reference.
Sarah Piehl, René Friedland, Thomas Neumann, and Gerald Schernewski
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-152, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-152, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We integrated observations essential for policy decisions with high-resolution 3D model results to improve the reliability of oxygen assessments. Based on our findings, we suggest merging only high temporal and/or vertical resolution station data with model data to increase confidence in oxygen assessments. While showing the strengths and limitations of our approach we show that model simulations are an useful tool for policy-relevant oxygen assessments.
Joshua Kiesel, Marvin Lorenz, Marcel König, Ulf Gräwe, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2961–2985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Among the Baltic Sea littoral states, Germany is anticipated to experience considerable damage as a result of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). Here we apply a new modelling framework to simulate how flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast may change until 2100 if dikes are not upgraded. We find that the study region is highly exposed to flooding, and we emphasise the importance of current plans to update coastal protection in the future.
Bronwyn E. Cahill, Piotr Kowalczuk, Lena Kritten, Ulf Gräwe, John Wilkin, and Jürgen Fischer
Biogeosciences, 20, 2743–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2743-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2743-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the impact of optically significant water constituents on surface heating rates and thermal energy fluxes in the western Baltic Sea. During productive months in 2018 (April to September) we found that the combined effect of coloured
dissolved organic matter and particulate absorption contributes to sea surface heating of between 0.4 and 0.9 K m−1 d−1 and a mean loss of heat (ca. 5 W m−2) from the sea to the atmosphere. This may be important for regional heat balance budgets.
Elin Andrée, Jian Su, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Martin Stendel, and Kristine Skovgaard Madsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1817–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
When natural processes interact, they may compound each other. The combined effect can amplify extreme sea levels, such as when a storm occurs at a time when the water level is already higher than usual. We used numerical modelling of a record-breaking storm surge in 1872 to show that other prior sea-level conditions could have further worsened the outcome. Our research highlights the need to consider the physical context of extreme sea levels in measures to reduce coastal flood risk.
Magnus Hieronymus
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2343–2354, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2343-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2343-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A statistical model called the sea level simulator is presented and made freely available. The sea level simulator integrates mean sea level rise and sea level extremes into a joint probabilistic framework that is useful for flood risk estimation. These flood risk estimates are contingent on probabilities given to different emission scenarios and the length of the planning period. The model is also useful for uncertainty quantification and in decision and adaptation problems.
H. E. Markus Meier, Marcus Reckermann, Joakim Langner, Ben Smith, and Ira Didenkulova
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 519–531, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-519-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-519-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Baltic Earth Assessment Reports summarise the current state of knowledge on Earth system science in the Baltic Sea region. The 10 review articles focus on the regional water, biogeochemical and carbon cycles; extremes and natural hazards; sea-level dynamics and coastal erosion; marine ecosystems; coupled Earth system models; scenario simulations for the regional atmosphere and the Baltic Sea; and climate change and impacts of human use. Some highlights of the results are presented here.
Pia Kolb, Anna Zorndt, Hans Burchard, Ulf Gräwe, and Frank Kösters
Ocean Sci., 18, 1725–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1725-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1725-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
River engineering measures greatly changed tidal dynamics in the Weser estuary. We studied the effect on saltwater intrusion with numerical models. Our analysis shows that a deepening of the navigation channel causes saltwater to intrude further into the Weser estuary. This effect is mostly masked by the natural variability of river discharge. In our study, it proved essential to recalibrate individual hindcast models due to differences in sediments, bed forms, and underlying bathymetric data.
Thomas Neumann, Hagen Radtke, Bronwyn Cahill, Martin Schmidt, and Gregor Rehder
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8473–8540, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8473-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8473-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Marine ecosystem models are usually constrained by the elements nitrogen and phosphorus and consider carbon in organic matter in a fixed ratio. Recent observations show a substantial deviation from the simulated carbon cycle variables. In this study, we present a marine ecosystem model for the Baltic Sea which allows for a flexible uptake ratio for carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus. With this extension, the model reflects much more reasonable variables of the marine carbon cycle.
Taavi Liblik, Germo Väli, Kai Salm, Jaan Laanemets, Madis-Jaak Lilover, and Urmas Lips
Ocean Sci., 18, 857–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-857-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-857-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
An extensive measurement campaign and numerical simulations were conducted in the central Baltic Sea. The persistent circulation patterns were detected in steady weather conditions. The patterns included various circulation features. A coastal boundary current was observed along the eastern coast. The deep layer current towards the north was detected as well. This current is an important deeper limb of the overturning circulation of the Baltic Sea. The circulation regime has an annual cycle.
Dmitry V. Sein, Anton Y. Dvornikov, Stanislav D. Martyanov, William Cabos, Vladimir A. Ryabchenko, Matthias Gröger, Daniela Jacob, Alok Kumar Mishra, and Pankaj Kumar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 809–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-809-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-809-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of the marine biogeochemical variability upon the South Asian regional climate has been investigated. In the experiment where its full impact is activated, the average sea surface temperature is lower over most of the ocean. When the biogeochemical coupling is included, the main impacts include the enhanced phytoplankton primary production, a shallower thermocline, decreased SST and water temperature in subsurface layers.
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
Karol Kuliński, Gregor Rehder, Eero Asmala, Alena Bartosova, Jacob Carstensen, Bo Gustafsson, Per O. J. Hall, Christoph Humborg, Tom Jilbert, Klaus Jürgens, H. E. Markus Meier, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Michael Naumann, Jørgen E. Olesen, Oleg Savchuk, Andreas Schramm, Caroline P. Slomp, Mikhail Sofiev, Anna Sobek, Beata Szymczycha, and Emma Undeman
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 633–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-633-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-633-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The paper covers the aspects related to changes in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus (C, N, P) external loads; their transformations in the coastal zone; changes in organic matter production (eutrophication) and remineralization (oxygen availability); and the role of sediments in burial and turnover of C, N, and P. Furthermore, this paper also focuses on changes in the marine CO2 system, the structure of the microbial community, and the role of contaminants for biogeochemical processes.
Matthias Gröger, Christian Dieterich, Cyril Dutheil, H. E. Markus Meier, and Dmitry V. Sein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 613–631, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-613-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-613-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric rivers transport high amounts of water from subtropical regions to Europe. They are an important driver of heavy precipitation and flooding. Their response to a warmer future climate in Europe has so far been assessed only by global climate models. In this study, we apply for the first time a high-resolution regional climate model that allow to better resolve and understand the fate of atmospheric rivers over Europe.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in the climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
Andreas Lehmann, Kai Myrberg, Piia Post, Irina Chubarenko, Inga Dailidiene, Hans-Harald Hinrichsen, Karin Hüssy, Taavi Liblik, H. E. Markus Meier, Urmas Lips, and Tatiana Bukanova
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 373–392, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-373-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-373-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The salinity in the Baltic Sea is not only an important topic for physical oceanography as such, but it also integrates the complete water and energy cycle. It is a primary external driver controlling ecosystem dynamics of the Baltic Sea. The long-term dynamics are controlled by river runoff, net precipitation, and the water mass exchange between the North Sea and Baltic Sea. On shorter timescales, the ephemeral atmospheric conditions drive a very complex and highly variable salinity regime.
H. E. Markus Meier, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Cyril Dutheil, Florian Börgel, Kseniia Safonova, Ole B. Christensen, and Erik Kjellström
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 159–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In addition to environmental pressures such as eutrophication, overfishing and contaminants, climate change is believed to have an important impact on the marine environment in the future, and marine management should consider the related risks. Hence, we have compared and assessed available scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea and found considerable uncertainties of the projections caused by the underlying assumptions and model biases, in particular for the water and biogeochemical cycles.
Ole Bøssing Christensen, Erik Kjellström, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, and Hans Eberhard Markus Meier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 133–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Baltic Sea Region is very sensitive to climate change, whose impacts could easily exacerbate biodiversity stress from society and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. Therefore, there has been a focus on estimations of future climate change and its impacts in recent research. Models show a strong warming, in particular in the north in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase in the whole region apart from the south during summer. New results improve estimates of future climate change.
Marcus Reckermann, Anders Omstedt, Tarmo Soomere, Juris Aigars, Naveed Akhtar, Magdalena Bełdowska, Jacek Bełdowski, Tom Cronin, Michał Czub, Margit Eero, Kari Petri Hyytiäinen, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Anders Kiessling, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kuliński, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Michelle McCrackin, H. E. Markus Meier, Sonja Oberbeckmann, Kevin Parnell, Cristian Pons-Seres de Brauwer, Anneli Poska, Jarkko Saarinen, Beata Szymczycha, Emma Undeman, Anders Wörman, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As part of the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR), we present an inventory and discussion of different human-induced factors and processes affecting the environment of the Baltic Sea region and their interrelations. Some are naturally occurring and modified by human activities, others are completely human-induced, and they are all interrelated to different degrees. The findings from this study can largely be transferred to other comparable marginal and coastal seas in the world.
Jenny Hieronymus, Kari Eilola, Malin Olofsson, Inga Hense, H. E. Markus Meier, and Elin Almroth-Rosell
Biogeosciences, 18, 6213–6227, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6213-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6213-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Dense blooms of cyanobacteria occur every summer in the Baltic Proper and can add to eutrophication by their ability to turn nitrogen gas into dissolved inorganic nitrogen. Being able to correctly estimate the size of this nitrogen fixation is important for management purposes. In this work, we find that the life cycle of cyanobacteria plays an important role in capturing the seasonality of the blooms as well as the size of nitrogen fixation in our ocean model.
Matthias Gröger, Christian Dieterich, Jari Haapala, Ha Thi Minh Ho-Hagemann, Stefan Hagemann, Jaromir Jakacki, Wilhelm May, H. E. Markus Meier, Paul A. Miller, Anna Rutgersson, and Lichuan Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 939–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-939-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-939-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Regional climate studies are typically pursued by single Earth system component models (e.g., ocean models and atmosphere models). These models are driven by prescribed data which hamper the simulation of feedbacks between Earth system components. To overcome this, models were developed that interactively couple model components and allow an adequate simulation of Earth system interactions important for climate. This article reviews recent developments of such models for the Baltic Sea region.
Jens Daniel Müller, Bernd Schneider, Ulf Gräwe, Peer Fietzek, Marcus Bo Wallin, Anna Rutgersson, Norbert Wasmund, Siegfried Krüger, and Gregor Rehder
Biogeosciences, 18, 4889–4917, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4889-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4889-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Based on profiling pCO2 measurements from a field campaign, we quantify the biomass production of a cyanobacteria bloom in the Baltic Sea, the export of which would foster deep water deoxygenation. We further demonstrate how this biomass production can be accurately reconstructed from long-term surface measurements made on cargo vessels in combination with modelled temperature profiles. This approach enables a better understanding of a severe concern for the Baltic’s good environmental status.
Thomas Neumann, Sampsa Koponen, Jenni Attila, Carsten Brockmann, Kari Kallio, Mikko Kervinen, Constant Mazeran, Dagmar Müller, Petra Philipson, Susanne Thulin, Sakari Väkevä, and Pasi Ylöstalo
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5049–5062, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5049-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5049-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Baltic Sea is heavily impacted by surrounding land. Therefore, the concentration of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) of terrestrial origin is relatively high and impacts the light penetration depth. Estimating a correct light climate is essential for ecosystem models. In this study, a method is developed to derive riverine CDOM from Earth observation methods. The data are used as boundary conditions for an ecosystem model, and the advantage over former approaches is shown.
Tobias Peter Bauer, Peter Holtermann, Bernd Heinold, Hagen Radtke, Oswald Knoth, and Knut Klingbeil
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4843–4863, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4843-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present the coupled atmosphere–ocean model system ICONGETM. The added value and potential of using the latest coupling technologies are discussed in detail. An exchange grid handles the different coastlines from the unstructured atmosphere and the structured ocean grids. Due to a high level of automated processing, ICONGETM requires only minimal user input. The application to a coastal upwelling scenario demonstrates significantly improved model results compared to uncoupled simulations.
Erik Jacobs, Henry C. Bittig, Ulf Gräwe, Carolyn A. Graves, Michael Glockzin, Jens D. Müller, Bernd Schneider, and Gregor Rehder
Biogeosciences, 18, 2679–2709, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2679-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2679-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use a unique data set of 8 years of continuous carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) surface water measurements from a commercial ferry to study upwelling in the Baltic Sea. Its seasonality and regional and interannual variability are examined. Strong upwelling events drastically increase local surface CO2 and CH4 levels and are mostly detected in late summer after long periods of impaired mixing. We introduce an extrapolation method to estimate regional upwelling-induced trace gas fluxes.
Robert Daniel Osinski, Kristina Enders, Ulf Gräwe, Knut Klingbeil, and Hagen Radtke
Ocean Sci., 16, 1491–1507, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1491-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1491-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the impact of the uncertainty in atmospheric data of a storm event on the transport of microplastics and sediments. The model chain includes the WRF atmospheric model, the WAVEWATCH III® wave model, and the GETM regional ocean model as well as a sediment transport model based on the FABM framework. An ensemble approach based on stochastic perturbations of the WRF model is used. We found a strong impact of atmospheric uncertainty on the amount of transported material.
Taavi Liblik, Germo Väli, Inga Lips, Madis-Jaak Lilover, Villu Kikas, and Jaan Laanemets
Ocean Sci., 16, 1475–1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1475-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1475-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The upper mixed layer, shallower than the depth of the euphotic zone, is one of the preconditions for enhanced primary production in the ocean. In the Baltic Sea, the general understanding is that the upper mixed layer is much deeper in winter. In this study, we demonstrate that wintertime shallow stratification and an elevated phytoplankton biomass proxy, chlorophyll, are common in the Gulf of Finland. Stratification is invoked by the westward flow of riverine water forced by an easterly wind.
Cited articles
Abrahams, A., Schlegel, R. W., and Smit, A. J.: A novel approach to quantify metrics of
upwelling intensity, frequency, and duration, PLoS ONE, 16, e0254026,
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0254026, 2021.
Andrée, E., Su, J., Larsen, M. A. D., Madsen, K. S., and Drews, M.:
Simulating major storm surge events in a complex coastal region, Ocean
Model., 162, 101802, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2021.101802, 2021.
Barnard, S., Barnier, B., Beckmann, A., Böning, C. W., Coulibaly, M.,
DeCuevas, D., Dengg, J., Dietrich, C., Ernst, U., Herrmann, P., Jia, Y.,
Killworth, P. D., Kröger, J., Lee, M. M., LeProvost, C., Molines, J.-M.,
New, A. L., Oschlies, A., Reynaud, T., West, L. J., Willebrand, J., and
DYNAMO Group: DYNAMO: dynamics of North Atlantic models : simulation and
assimilation with high resolution models. Berichte aus dem Institut für
Meereskunde an der Christian-Albrechts-Universität Kiel, 294, Institut
für Meereskunde, Kiel, Germany, 334 pp., https://doi.org/10.3289/ifm_ber_294, 1997.
Berg, P. and Weismann Poulsen, J.: Implementation details for HBM. DMI
Technical Report No. 12-11, Copenhagen, 149 pp., https://www.dmi.dk/fileadmin/Rapporter/TR/tr12-11.pdf (last access: 17 November 2022), 2012.
Bergström, S. and Carlsson, B.: river runoff to the Baltic Sea
1950–1990, Ambio, 23, 280–287, 1994.
Burchard, H. and Rennau, H.: Comparative quantification of physically and
numerically induced mixing in ocean models, Ocean Model., 20, 293–311,
2008.
Campin, J.-M., Marshall, J., and Ferreira, D.: Sea ice-ocean coupling
using a rescaled vertical coordinate z*, Ocean Model., 24, 1–14,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2008.05.005, 2008.
Chubarenko, I. and
Stepanova, N.: Cold intermediate layer of the Baltic Sea: Hypothesis of the
formation of its core, Prog. Oceanogr., 167, 1-10, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2018.06.012, 2018.
Chubarenko, I. P., Demchenko, N. Y., Esiukova, E. E., Lobchuk, O. I.,
Karmanov, K. V., Pilipchuk, V. A., Isachenko, I. A., Kulshov, A. F.,
Chugaevich, V. Y., Stepanova, N. B., Krechik, V. A., and Bagaev, A. V.: Spring
thermocline formation in the coastal zone of the southeastern Baltic Sea
based on field data in 2010–2013, Oceanology, 57, 632–638, 2017.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi,
S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P.,
Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C.,
Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach,
H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M.,
Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park,
B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and
Vitart, F., The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the
data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
Dieterich, C., Wang, S., Schimanke, S., Gröger, M., Klein, B., Hordoir,
R., Samuelsson, P., Liu, Y., Axell, L., Höglund, A., and Meier, H. E. M.:
Surface heat budget over the North Sea in climate change simulations.
Atmosphere, 10, 272, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10050272, 2019.
Donnelly, C., Andersson, J. F. C., and Arheimer, B.: Using flow signatures and
catchment similarities to evaluate the E-HYPE multi-basin model across
Europe, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 61, 255–273,
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1027710, 2016.
Döös, K., Meier, H. E. M., and Döscher, R.: The Baltic Haline
Conveyor Belt or the Overturning Circulation and Mixing in the Baltic,
Ambio, 33, 261–66,
2004.
Dutheil, C., Meier, H. E. M., Gröger, M., and Börgel, F.: Understanding
past and future sea surface temperature trends in the Baltic Sea, Clim.
Dynam., 50, 3021–3039, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06084-1, 2021.
Eilola, K.:
Development of a spring thermocline at temperatures below the temperature of
maximum density with application to the Baltic Sea, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
102, 8657–8662, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JC00295, 1997.
Eilola, K., Gustafson, B. G., Kuznetsov, I., Meier, H. E. M., Neumann, T., and Savchuk, O.
P.: Evaluation of biogeochemical cycles in an ensemble of three
state-of-the-art numerical models of the Baltic Sea, J. Marine
Syst., 88, 267–284, 2011.
Eilola, K., Rosell, E. A., Dieterich, C., Fransner, F., Höglund, A., and Markus
Meier, H. E. M.: Modeling nutrient transports and exchanges of nutrients
between shallow regions and the open Baltic sea in present and future
climate, Ambio, 41, 586–599, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0322-1, 2012.
Feistel, R:
TEOS-10: a new international oceanographic standard for seawater, ice, fluid
water, and humid air, Int. J. Thermophys., 33, 1335–1351,
2012.
Geyer, B.: High-resolution atmospheric reconstruction for Europe 1948–2012: coastDat2, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 147–164, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-147-2014, 2014.
Griffies, S. M., Danabasoglu, G., Durack, P. J., Adcroft, A. J., Balaji, V., Böning, C. W., Chassignet, E. P., Curchitser, E., Deshayes, J., Drange, H., Fox-Kemper, B., Gleckler, P. J., Gregory, J. M., Haak, H., Hallberg, R. W., Heimbach, P., Hewitt, H. T., Holland, D. M., Ilyina, T., Jungclaus, J. H., Komuro, Y., Krasting, J. P., Large, W. G., Marsland, S. J., Masina, S., McDougall, T. J., Nurser, A. J. G., Orr, J. C., Pirani, A., Qiao, F., Stouffer, R. J., Taylor, K. E., Treguier, A. M., Tsujino, H., Uotila, P., Valdivieso, M., Wang, Q., Winton, M., and Yeager, S. G.: OMIP contribution to CMIP6: experimental and diagnostic protocol for the physical component of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3231–3296, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016, 2016.
Gröger, M., Dieterich, C., Meier, H. E. M., and Schimanke, S.: Thermal
air–sea coupling in hindcast simulations for the North Sea and Baltic Sea
on the NW European shelf, Tellus A, 67, 26911,
https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.26911, 2015.
Gröger, M., Arneborg, L., Dieterich, C., Höglund, A., and Meier,
H. E. M.: Summer hydrographic changes in the Baltic Sea, Kattegat and
Skagerrak projected in an ensemble of climate scenarios downscaled with a
coupled regional ocean–sea ice–atmosphere model, Clim. Dynam., 53, 5945–5966,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04908-9, 2019.
Gröger, M., Dieterich, C., Haapala, J., Ho-Hagemann, H. T. M., Hagemann, S., Jakacki, J., May, W., Meier, H. E. M., Miller, P. A., Rutgersson, A., and Wu, L.: Coupled regional Earth system modeling in the Baltic Sea region, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 939–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-939-2021, 2021a.
Gröger, M., Dieterich, C., and Meier, H. E. M.: Is interactive air sea
coupling relevant for simulating the future climate of Europe?, Clim.
Dynam., 56, 491–514, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05489-8, 2021b.
Gröger, M., Dieterich, C., Dutheil, C., Meier, H. E. M., and Sein, D. V.: Atmospheric rivers in CMIP5 climate ensembles downscaled with a high-resolution regional climate model, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 613–631, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-613-2022, 2022.
Hegerl, G. C., Ballinger, A. P., Booth, B. B. B., Borchert, L. F., Brunner, L., Donat, M. G.,
Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Harris, G. R., Lowe, J., Mahmood, R., Mignot, J., Murphy, J. M.,
Swingedouw, D., and Weisheimer, A: Toward Consistent Observational Constraints
in Climate Predictions and Projections, Front. Clim., 3, 678109, https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.678109, 2021.
Hobday, A. J., Oliver, E. C. J., Gupta, A. S., Benthuysen, J. A., Burrows, M. T., Donat, M. G., Holbrook, N. J., Moore, P. J., Thomsen, M. S., Wernberg, T., and Smale, D. A.: Categorizing and naming marine heatwaves,
Oceanography, 31, 162–173, 2018.
Hofmeister, R., Burchard, H., and Beckers, J.-M.: Non-uniform adaptive
vertical grids for 3D numerical ocean models, Ocean Model., 33,
70–86, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2009.12.003, 2010.
Hordoir, R. and Meier, H. E. M: Effect of climate change on the thermal
stratification of the baltic sea: a sensitivity experiment, Clim. Dynam. 38,
1703–1713, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1036-y, 2012.
Hordoir, R., Axell, L., Höglund, A., Dieterich, C., Fransner, F., Gröger, M., Liu, Y., Pemberton, P., Schimanke, S., Andersson, H., Ljungemyr, P., Nygren, P., Nord, A., Jönsson, A., Lake, I., Döös, K., Hieronymus, M., Dietze, H., Löptien, U., and Haapala, J.: Nemo-Nordic 1.0: A NEMO based ocean model for Baltic & North Seas, research and operational applications, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1493117, 2018.
Hordoir, R., Axell, L., Höglund, A., Dieterich, C., Fransner, F., Gröger, M., Liu, Y., Pemberton, P., Schimanke, S., Andersson, H., Ljungemyr, P., Nygren, P., Falahat, S., Nord, A., Jönsson, A., Lake, I., Döös, K., Hieronymus, M., Dietze, H., Löptien, U., Kuznetsov, I., Westerlund, A., Tuomi, L., and Haapala, J.: Nemo-Nordic 1.0: a NEMO-based ocean model for the Baltic and North seas – research and operational applications, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 363–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-363-2019, 2019.
Hunke, E. C. and Dukowicz, J. K.: An elastic-viscous-plastic model
for sea ice dynamics, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 1849–1867, 1997.
Hunke, E. C. and Dukowicz, J. K.: An elastic-viscous-plastic model for sea
ice dynamics, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 1849–1867, 1997.
Kara, A. B., Hurlburt, H. E., and Wallcraft, A. J. : Stability-Dependent
Exchange Coefficients for Air–Sea Fluxes, J. Atmos.
Ocean. Tech., 22, 1080–1094,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH1747.1, 2005.
Kleine, E. and Skylar, S.: Mathematical features of Hibler's model of
large-scale sea-ice dynamics, Ocean Dynam., 47, 179–230, 1995.
Kent, E. C., Rayner, N. A., Berry, D. I., Eastman, R., Grigorieva, V. G., Huang, B., Kennedy, J. J.,
Smith, S. R., and Willett, K. M.: Observing Requirements for Long-Term Climate
Records at the Ocean Surface, Front. Mar. Sci., 6, 441, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00441, 2019.
Knudsen, M.: Erneuerung der unteren Wasserschichte in der Ostsee,
Annalen der Hydrographie und Maritimen Meteorologie, 28, 586–590, 1900.
Krauss, W.: The erosion of a thermocline, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 11, 415–433,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1981)011<0415:TEOAT>2.0.CO;2, 1981.
Kushnir, Y.: Interdecadal Variations in North Atlantic Sea Surface
Temperature and Associated Atmospheric Conditions, J. Climate, 7,
141–157, https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/7/1/1520-0442_1994_007_0141_ivinas_2_0_co_2.xml (last access: 17 November 2022), 1994.
Large, W. G. and Yeager, S.: Diurnal to decadal global forcing for ocean and
sea-ice models: the data sets and flux climatologies, NCAR Technical Note,
NCAR/TN-460+STR, CGD Division of the National Center for Atmospheric
Research, https://doi.org/10.5065/D6KK98Q6, 2004.
Large, W. G. and Yeager, S. G.: The global climatology of an interannually
varying air-sea flux data set, Clim. Dynam., 33, 341–364,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0441-3, 2009.
Lehmann, A., Krauss, W., and Hinrichsen, H.-H.: Effects of remote and local
atmospheric forcing on circulation and upwelling in the Baltic Sea, Tellus
A, 54, 299–316, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v54i3.12138, 2002.
Lehmann, A., Myrberg, K., and Höflich, K. : A statistical approach to
coastal upwelling in the Baltic Sea based on the analysis of satellite data
for 1990–2009, Oceanologia, 54, 369–393, 2012.
Levier, B., Treìguier, A.-M., Madec, G., and Garnier, V.: Free surface and
variable volume in the nemo code, Tech. rep., MERSEA MERSEA IP report
WP09-CNRS-STR-03-1A, 47 pp., Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3244182, 2007.
Liblik, T. and Lips, U.: Characteristics and variability of the vertical
thermohaline structure in the Gulf of Finland in summer, Borela Environ.
Res., 16, 73–83, 2011.
Liblik, T. and Lips, U.: Stratification has strengthened in the Baltic
Sea–an analysis of 35 years of observational data, Front. Earth
Sci., 7, 174, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00174, 2019.
Lindström, G., Pers, C., Rosberg, J., Strömqvist, J., and Arheimer, B.:
Development and testing of the HYPE (Hydrological Predictions for the
Environment) water quality model for different spatial scales, Hydrol. Res.,
41, 295–319, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2010.007, 2010.
Lips, U., Kikas, V., Liblik, T., and Lips, I.: Multi-sensor in situ observations to resolve the sub-mesoscale features in the stratified Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea, Ocean Sci., 12, 715–732, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-715-2016, 2016.
Liu, Y., Meier, H. E. M., and Eilola, K.: Nutrient transports in the Baltic Sea – results from a 30-year physical–biogeochemical reanalysis, Biogeosciences, 14, 2113–2131, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2113-2017, 2017.
Matthäus, W. and Franck, H.: Characteristics of major Baltic
inflows – a statistical analysis, Cont. Shelf Res., 12, 1375–1400, 1992.
Meier, H. E. M.: On the parameterization of mixing in three-dimensional
Baltic Sea models, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 106,
30997–31016, 2001.
Meier, H. E. M.: Modeling the pathways and ages of inflowing salt- and
freshwater in the Baltic Sea, Estuarine, Coast. Shelf Sci., 74, 610–627, 2007.
Meier, H. E. M. and Saraiva, S.: Projected Oceanographical Changes in the
Baltic Sea until 2100., Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science,
online publication date, https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.69, 2020.
Meier, H. E. M., Döscher, R., Coward, A. C., Nycander, J., and Döös, K.:
RCO–Rossby Centre regional Ocean climate model: model description (version
1.0) and first results from the hindcast period 1992/93, Reports
Oceanography No. 26, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden, p. 102, https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:947959/FULLTEXT01.pdf (last access: 17 November 2022), 1999.
Meier, H. E. M, Edman, M., Eilola, K., Placke, M., Neumann, T., Andersson, H.,
Brunnabend, S.-E., Dieterich, C., Frauen, C., Friedland, R., Gröger, M.,
Gustafsson, B., Gustafsson, E., Isaev, A., Kniebusch, M., Kuznetsov, I.,
Müller-Karulis, B., Omstedt, A., Ryabchenko, V., Saraiva, S., and
Savchuk, O. P.: Assessment of eutrophication abatement scenarios for the
Baltic Sea by multi-model ensemble simulations, Front. Mar. Sci., 5, 440, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2018.00440, 2018.
Meier, H. E. M., Edman, M., Eilola, K., Placke, M., Neumann, T., Andersson,
H., Brunnabend, S., Dieterich, C., Frauen, C., Friedland, R., Gröger,
M., Gustafsson, B., Gustafsson, E., Isaev, A., Kniebusch, M., Kuznetsov, I.,
Müller-Karulis, B., Naumann, M., Omstedt, A., Ryabchenko, V., Saraiva,
S., and Savchuk, O.: Assessment of uncertainties in scenario simulations of
biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea, Front. Mar. Sci., 6, 46,
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00046, 2019a.
Meier, H. E. M., Dieterich, C., Eilola, K., Gröger, M., Höglund, A.,
Radtke, H., Saraiva, S., and Wåhlström, I.: Future projections of
record-breaking sea surface temperature and cyanobacteria bloom events in
the Baltic Sea, AMBIO, 48, 1362–1376, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01235-5, 2019b.
Meier, H. E. M., Dieterich, C., and Gröger, M.: Natural variability is a
large source of uncertainty in future projections of hypoxia in the Baltic
Sea, Commun. Earth Environ., 2, 50, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00115-9,
2021a.
Meier, H. E. M., Dieterich, C., Gröger, M., Dutheil, C., Börgel, F., Safonova, K., Christensen, O. B., and Kjellström, E.: Oceanographic regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea until 2100, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 159–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, 2022.
Myrberg, K., Ryabchenko, V., Isaev, A., Vankevich, R., Andrejev, O.,
Bendtsen, J., Erichsen, A., Funkquist, L., Inkala, A., Neelov, I., Rasmus,
K., Rodriguez Medina, M., Raudsepp, U., Passenko, J., Söderkvist, J.,
Sokolov, A., Kuosa, H., Anderson, T. R., Lehmann, A., and Skogen, M. D.:
Validation of three-dimensional hydrodynamic models of the Gulf of Finland,
Boreal Environ. Res., 15, 453–479, 2010.
Neumann, T.: Model code and boundary data for “Non-Redfield carbon model for the Baltic Sea (ERGOM version 1.2) – Implementation and Budget estimates” paper (Version 2), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6560174, 2022.
Oliver, E. C. Burrows, M. T., Donat, M. G., Sen Gupta, A., Alexander, L. V.,
Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., and Thomsen, M. S.: rojected marine heatwaves in the
21st century and the potential for ecological impact, Front. Mar.
Sci., 6, 734, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00734, 2019.
Omstedt, A.: Modelling the Baltic Sea as thirteen sub-basins with vertical
resolution, Tellus A, 42, 286–301, 1990.
Omstedt, A. and Axell, L. B.: Modeling the variations of salinity and
temperature in the large Gulfs of the Baltic Sea, Cont. Shelf
Res., 23, 265–294, 2003.
Onken, R., Baschek, B., and Angel-Benavides, I. M.: Very high-resolution modelling of submesoscale turbulent patterns and processes in the Baltic Sea, Ocean Sci., 16, 657–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-657-2020, 2020.
Pätsch, J., Burchard, H., Dieterich, C., Gräwe, U., Gröger, M.,
Mathis, M., Kapitza, H., Bersch, M., Moll, A., Pohlmann, T., Su, J.,
Ho-Hagemann, H. T., Schulz, A., Elizalde, A., and Eden, C.: An evaluation of
the North Sea circulation in global and regional models relevant for
ecosystem simulations, Ocean Model., 116, 70–95,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2017.06.005, 2017.
Placke, M., Meier, H. E. M., Gräwe, U., Neumann, T., Frauen, C., and Liu, Y.:
Long-Term Mean Circulation of the Baltic Sea as Represented by Various Ocean
Circulation Models, Front. Mar. Sci., 5, 287, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2018.00287,
2018.
Placke, M., Meier, H. E. M., and Neumann, T.: Sensitivity of the Baltic Sea
overturning circulation to long-term atmospheric and hydrological changes,
J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 126, e2020JC016079, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016079,
2021.
Saraiva, S., Meier, H. E. M., Andersson, H., Höglund, A., Dieterich, C.,
Gröger, M. Hordoir, H., and Eilola, K.: Baltic Sea ecosystem response to
various nutrient load scenarios in present and future climates, Clim.
Dynam., 52, 3369–3387, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4330-0, 2019.
Samuelsson, P., Jones, C. G., Willén, U., Ullerstig, A., Gollvik, S.,
Hansson, U., Jansson, E., Kjellström, C., Nikulin, G., and Wyser K.: The
Rossby Centre Regional Climate model RCA3: model description and
performance, Tellus A, 63, 4–23, 2011.
Schimanke, S.: Subset of UERRA Harmonie v1 Reanalysis variables, https://doi.org/10.12754/data-2022-0005, 2022.
Schinke, H. and Matthäus, W.: On the causes of major Baltic
inflows–an analysis of long time series, Cont. Shelf Res.,
18, 67–97, 1998.
Su, J.: HBM DKSS version 2013 (DKSS-2013), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6769238, 2022.
Suursaar, Ü: Combined impact of summer heat waves and coastal upwelling
in the Baltic Sea, Oceanologia, 62, 511–524,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceano.2020.08.003, 2020.
Stigebrandt, A.: A model for the exchange of water and salt between the
Baltic and the Skagerrak, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 13, 411–427, 1983.
Stigebrandt, A.: A model for the vertial circulation of the Baltic deep
water, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 17, 1772–1785, 1987.
Väli, G., Meier, H. M., and Elken, J.: Simulated halocline variability
in the Baltic Sea and its impact on hypoxia during 1961–2007, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118,
6982–7000, 2013.
Väli, G., Zhurbas, V., Lips, U., and Laanemets, J.: Submesoscale structures
related to upwelling events in the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea (numerical
experiments), J. Mar. Syst., 171, 31–42, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2016.06.010, 2017.
Väli, G., Zhurbas, V., Lips, U., and Laanemets, J.: Clustering of
floating particles due to submesoscale dynamics: a simulation study for the
Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea, 11,
21–35, https://doi.org/10.7868/s2073667318020028, 2018.
Väli, G., Meier, H. E. M., Placke, M., and Dieterich, C.: River runoff
forcing for ocean modeling within the Baltic Sea Model Intercomparison
Project, Meereswiss. Ber., Warnemünde, 113, 1–25,
https://doi.org/10.12754/msr-2019-0113, 2019.
Vancoppenolle, M., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H., Bouillon, S., Madec, G., and
Maqueda, M. A. M.: Simulating the mass balance and salinity of Arctic and
Antarctic sea ice. 1. Model description and validation, Ocean Model., 27,
33–53, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2008.10.005, 2009.
Vortmeyer-Kley, R., Lünsmann, B., Berthold, M., Gräwe, U., and Feudel, U.:
Eddies: Fluid Dynamical Niches or Transporters? – A Case Study in the Western
Baltic Sea, Front. Mar. Sci., 6, 118, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00118, 2019a.
Vortmeyer-Kley, R., Holtermann, P., Feudel, U., and Gräwe, U.: Comparing Eulerian and
Lagrangian eddy census for a tide-less, semi-enclosed basin, the Baltic Sea,
Ocean Dynam., 69, 701–717,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-019-01269-z, 2019b.
Wåhlström, I., Höglund, A., Almroth-Rosell, E., MacKenzie,
B., Gröger, M., Eilola, K., Andersson, H., and Plikshs, M.:
Combined climate change and nutrient load impacts on future habitats and
eutrophication indicators in a eutrophic coastal sea, Limnol. Oceanogr.,
65, 2170–2187, https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.11446, 2020.
Wåhlström, I., Hammar, L., Hume, D., Pålsson, J., Almroth-Rosell, E., Dieterich, C., Arneborg, L., Gröger, M., Mattsson, M., Zillén Snowball, L., Kågesten, G., Törnqvist, O., Breviere, E., Brunnabend, S.-E., and Jonsson, P. R.: Projected climate change impact on a coastal sea–As significant as all current pressures combined, Glob. Change Biol., 28, 5310–5319, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16312, 2022.
Welander, P.: Two-layer exchange in an estuary basin, with special
reference to the Baltic Sea, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 4, 542–556, 1974.
Winton, M.: A reformulated three-layer sea ice model, J.
Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 17, 525–531, 2000.
Zhurbas, V., Väli, G., and Kuzmina, N.: Rotation of floating particles in submesoscale cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies: a model study for the southeastern Baltic Sea, Ocean Sci., 15, 1691–1705, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1691-2019, 2019a.
Zhurbas, V., Väli, G., Kostianoy, A., and Lavrova, O.: Hindcast of the
mesoscale eddy field in the Southeastern Baltic Sea: Model output vs
satellite imagery, Russian Journal of Earth Sciences, 19, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.2205/2019ES000672, 2019b.
Zumwald, M., Knüsel, B., Baumberger, C., Hirsch Hadorn, G., Bresch, D. N.,
and Knutti, R.: Understanding and assessing uncertainty of observational climate
datasets for model evaluation using ensembles, WIREs Clim Change, 11, e654, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.654, 2020.
Short summary
Comparisons of oceanographic climate data from different models often suffer from different model setups, forcing fields, and output of variables. This paper provides a protocol to harmonize these elements to set up multidecadal simulations for the Baltic Sea, a marginal sea in Europe. First results are shown from six different model simulations from four different model platforms. Topical studies for upwelling, marine heat waves, and stratification are also assessed.
Comparisons of oceanographic climate data from different models often suffer from different...
