Articles | Volume 12, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-989-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-989-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
21 Mar 2019
Development and technical paper |
| 21 Mar 2019
| 21 Mar 2019
First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect
Stephanie Fiedler
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany
Bjorn Stevens
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany
Matthew Gidden
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Steven J. Smith
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA
Keywan Riahi
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Detlef van Vuuren
Utrecht University, Vening Meineszgebouw A, Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CB Utrecht, the Netherlands
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, the Netherlands
Related authors
Paul T. Griffiths, Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Michael Prather, Alex Archibald, Florence Brown, Makoto Deushi, William Collins, Stephanie Fiedler, Naga Oshima, Lee T. Murray, Bjørn H. Samset, Chris Smith, Steven Turnock, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Paul J. Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8289–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) aimed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. We review its contribution to AR6 (Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and the wider understanding of the role of these species in climate and climate change. We identify challenges and provide recommendations to improve the utility and uptake of climate model data, detailed summary tables of CMIP6 models, experiments, and emergent diagnostics.
Domenico Cimini, Rémi Gandoin, Stephanie Fiedler, Claudia Acquistapace, Andrea Balotti, Sabrina Gentile, Edoardo Geraldi, Christine Knist, Pauline Martinet, Saverio T. Nilo, Giandomenico Pace, Bernhard Pospichal, and Filomena Romano
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 2041–2067, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-2041-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-2041-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric stability indicates whether air vertical motion is dumped or amplified. This is important for wind energy applications as it affects wind turbine wakes and thus the yield of wind parks. The paper provides an assessment of stability metrics measured by ground-based microwave radiometers in different climatological conditions and instrument types, onshore and offshore. Results indicate that special precaution may be required offshore to achieve typical onshore performances.
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate scientists want to better understand modern climate change. Thus, climate model experiments are performed and compared. The results of climate model experiments differ, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article gives insights into the challenges and outlines opportunities for further improving the understanding of climate change. It is based on views of a group of experts in atmospheric composition–climate interactions.
Mahdi Boroughani, Fahimeh Mirchooli, Mojtaba Hadavifar, and Stephanie Fiedler
SOIL, 9, 411–423, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-9-411-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-9-411-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The present study used several different datasets, conducted a field survey, and paired the data with three different machine learning algorithms to construct spatial maps for areas at risk of land degradation for the Lut watershed in Iran. According to the land degradation map, almost the entire study region is at risk. A large fraction of 43 % of the area is prone to both high wind-driven and water-driven soil erosion.
Mark Reyers, Stephanie Fiedler, Patrick Ludwig, Christoph Böhm, Volker Wennrich, and Yaping Shao
Clim. Past, 19, 517–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we performed high-resolution climate model simulations for the hyper-arid Atacama Desert for the mid-Pliocene (3.2 Ma). The aim is to uncover the atmospheric processes that are involved in the enhancement of strong rainfall events during this period. We find that strong upper-level moisture fluxes (so-called moisture conveyor belts) originating in the tropical eastern Pacific are the main driver for increased rainfall in the mid-Pliocene.
Eduardo Weide Luiz and Stephanie Fiedler
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 1575–1591, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1575-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work analyses a meteorological event, called nocturnal low-level jets (NLLJs), defined as high wind speeds relatively close to the surface. There were positive and negative impacts from NLLJs. While NLLJs increased the mean power production, they also increased the variability in the wind with height. Our results imply that long NLLJ events are also larger, affecting many wind turbines at the same time. Short NLLJ events are more local, having stronger effects on power variability.
Julian Steinheuer, Carola Detring, Frank Beyrich, Ulrich Löhnert, Petra Friederichs, and Stephanie Fiedler
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 3243–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3243-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3243-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Doppler wind lidars (DWLs) allow the determination of wind profiles with high vertical resolution and thus provide an alternative to meteorological towers. We address the question of whether wind gusts can be derived since they are short-lived phenomena. Therefore, we compare different DWL configurations and develop a new method applicable to all of them. A fast continuous scanning mode that completes a full observation cycle within 3.4 s is found to be the best-performing configuration.
Robin D. Lamboll, Chris D. Jones, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Stephanie Fiedler, Bjørn H. Samset, Nathan P. Gillett, Joeri Rogelj, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3683–3695, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Lockdowns to avoid the spread of COVID-19 have created an unprecedented reduction in human emissions. We can estimate the changes in emissions at a country level, but to make predictions about how this will affect our climate, we need more precise information about where the emissions happen. Here we combine older estimates of where emissions normally occur with very recent estimates of sector activity levels to enable different groups to make simulations of the climatic effects of lockdown.
Gillian Thornhill, William Collins, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alex Archibald, Susanne Bauer, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Stephanie Fiedler, Gerd Folberth, Ada Gjermundsen, Larry Horowitz, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Fabien Paulot, Michael Schulz, Catherine E. Scott, Roland Séférian, Chris Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and James Weber
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1105–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We find that increased temperatures affect aerosols and reactive gases by changing natural emissions and their rates of removal from the atmosphere. Changing the composition of these species in the atmosphere affects the radiative budget of the climate system and therefore amplifies or dampens the climate response of climate models of the Earth system. This study found that the largest effect is a dampening of climate change as warmer temperatures increase the emissions of cooling aerosols.
Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Jenni Kontkanen, Irina Sandu, Mario Acosta, Mohammed Hussam Al Turjmam, Ivan Alsina-Ferrer, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Leo Arriola, Marvin Axness, Marc Batlle Martín, Peter Bauer, Tobias Becker, Daniel Beltrán, Sebastian Beyer, Hendryk Bockelmann, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Sebastien Cabaniols, Silvia Caprioli, Miguel Castrillo, Aparna Chandrasekar, Suvarchal Cheedela, Victor Correal, Emanuele Danovaro, Paolo Davini, Jussi Enkovaara, Claudia Frauen, Barbara Früh, Aina Gaya Àvila, Paolo Ghinassi, Rohit Ghosh, Supriyo Ghosh, Iker González, Katherine Grayson, Matthew Griffith, Ioan Hadade, Christopher Haine, Carl Hartick, Utz-Uwe Haus, Shane Hearne, Heikki Järvinen, Bernat Jiménez, Amal John, Marlin Juchem, Thomas Jung, Jessica Kegel, Matthias Kelbling, Kai Keller, Bruno Kinoshita, Theresa Kiszler, Daniel Klocke, Lukas Kluft, Nikolay Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Joonas Kolstela, Luis Kornblueh, Sergey Kosukhin, Aleksander Lacima-Nadolnik, Jeisson Javier Leal Rojas, Jonni Lehtiranta, Tuomas Lunttila, Anna Luoma, Pekka Manninen, Alexey Medvedev, Sebastian Milinski, Ali Omar Abdelazim Mohammed, Sebastian Müller, Devaraju Naryanappa, Natalia Nazarova, Sami Niemelä, Bimochan Niraula, Henrik Nortamo, Aleksi Nummelin, Matteo Nurisso, Pablo Ortega, Stella Paronuzzi, Xabier Pedruzo Bagazgoitia, Charles Pelletier, Carlos Peña, Suraj Polade, Himansu Pradhan, Rommel Quintanilla, Tiago Quintino, Thomas Rackow, Jouni Räisänen, Maqsood Mubarak Rajput, René Redler, Balthasar Reuter, Nuno Rocha Monteiro, Francesc Roura-Adserias, Silva Ruppert, Susan Sayed, Reiner Schnur, Tanvi Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Outi Sievi-Korte, Albert Soret, Christian Steger, Bjorn Stevens, Jan Streffing, Jaleena Sunny, Luiggi Tenorio, Stephan Thober, Ulf Tigerstedt, Oriol Tinto, Juha Tonttila, Heikki Tuomenvirta, Lauri Tuppi, Ginka Van Thielen, Emanuele Vitali, Jost von Hardenberg, Ingo Wagner, Nils Wedi, Jan Wehner, Sven Willner, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, Florian Ziemen, and Janos Zimmermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2198, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2198, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
The Climate Change Adaptation Digital Twin (Climate DT) pioneers the operationalisation of climate projections. The system produces global simulations with local granularity for adaptation decision-making. Applications are embedded to generate tailored indicators. A unified workflow orchestrates all components in several supercomputers. Data management ensures consistency and streaming enables real-time use. It is a complementary innovation to initiatives like CMIP, CORDEX, and climate services.
Anna Lea Albright, Bjorn Stevens, and Martin Wirth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3551, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3551, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean evaporation transfers heat and moisture into the atmosphere, shaping our weather and climate, yet humidity just above the ocean is hard to measure from space. We show that lasers measuring low cloud height can accurately infer near-surface humidity. Tests on ships, aircraft, and with weather balloons are used to validate the method. Applied to satellites, this method could help fill gaps in humidity measurements over the ocean.
Paul T. Griffiths, Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Michael Prather, Alex Archibald, Florence Brown, Makoto Deushi, William Collins, Stephanie Fiedler, Naga Oshima, Lee T. Murray, Bjørn H. Samset, Chris Smith, Steven Turnock, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Paul J. Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8289–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) aimed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. We review its contribution to AR6 (Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and the wider understanding of the role of these species in climate and climate change. We identify challenges and provide recommendations to improve the utility and uptake of climate model data, detailed summary tables of CMIP6 models, experiments, and emergent diagnostics.
Ann Kristin Naumann, Monika Esch, and Bjorn Stevens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6429–6444, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how uncertainties in the representation of microphysical processes affect the tropical condensate distribution in the global storm-resolving model ICON. The results point to the importance of the fall speed of hydrometeor particles and to a simple relationship: the faster a condensate falls, the less there is of it. Implications for the energy balance and precipitation properties are discussed.
Fabio Sferra, Bas van Ruijven, Keywan Riahi, Philip Hackstock, Florian Maczek, Jarmo Kikstra, and Reinhard Haas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-121, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-121, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Assessments of future emissions and the effectiveness of climate policies are usually performed with Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). Bringing together insights from IAMs with information at the country level has remained difficult, as these models provide results for a limited number of regions. This paper presents DSCALE, a novel algorithm designed to downscale regional IAMs outcomes to the country level and shows results for a current policy and a 1.5C scenario from the NGFS 2023 project.
Marielle Saunois, Adrien Martinez, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, Peter A. Raymond, Pierre Regnier, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Bousquet, Philippe Ciais, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Xin Lan, George H. Allen, David Bastviken, David J. Beerling, Dmitry A. Belikov, Donald R. Blake, Simona Castaldi, Monica Crippa, Bridget R. Deemer, Fraser Dennison, Giuseppe Etiope, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Meredith A. Holgerson, Peter O. Hopcroft, Gustaf Hugelius, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Rajesh Janardanan, Matthew S. Johnson, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ronny Lauerwald, Tingting Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe R. Melton, Jens Mühle, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Shufen Pan, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Gerard Rocher-Ros, Judith A. Rosentreter, Motoki Sasakawa, Arjo Segers, Steven J. Smith, Emily H. Stanley, Joël Thanwerdas, Hanqin Tian, Aki Tsuruta, Francesco N. Tubiello, Thomas S. Weber, Guido R. van der Werf, Douglas E. J. Worthy, Yi Xi, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1873–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1873-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1873-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Methane (CH4) is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2). A consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists synthesise and update the budget of the sources and sinks of CH4. This edition benefits from important progress in estimating emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. For the 2010s decade, global CH4 emissions are estimated at 575 Tg CH4 yr-1, including ~65 % from anthropogenic sources.
Domenico Cimini, Rémi Gandoin, Stephanie Fiedler, Claudia Acquistapace, Andrea Balotti, Sabrina Gentile, Edoardo Geraldi, Christine Knist, Pauline Martinet, Saverio T. Nilo, Giandomenico Pace, Bernhard Pospichal, and Filomena Romano
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 2041–2067, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-2041-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-2041-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric stability indicates whether air vertical motion is dumped or amplified. This is important for wind energy applications as it affects wind turbine wakes and thus the yield of wind parks. The paper provides an assessment of stability metrics measured by ground-based microwave radiometers in different climatological conditions and instrument types, onshore and offshore. Results indicate that special precaution may be required offshore to achieve typical onshore performances.
William Lamb, Robbie Andrew, Matthew Jones, Zebedee Nicholls, Glen Peters, Chris Smith, Marielle Saunois, Giacomo Grassi, Julia Pongratz, Steven Smith, Francesco Tubiello, Monica Crippa, Matthew Gidden, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jan Minx, and Piers Forster
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-188, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-188, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores why global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates vary. Key reasons include different coverage of gases and sectors, varying definitions of anthropogenic land use change emissions, and the Paris Agreement not covering all emission sources. The study highlights three main ways emissions data is reported, each with different objectives and resulting in varying global emission totals. It emphasizes the need for transparency in choosing datasets and setting assessment scopes.
Hairu Ding, Bjorn Stevens, and Hauke Schmidt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-876, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-876, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the physical link between subtropical highs and stratocumulus variability. Using reanalysis data, we test two proposed pathways—one at the surface and one in the free troposphere—but find that neither is a dominant mechanism for stratocumulus variability on seasonal and interannual timescales. These results challenge the assumed influence of subtropical highs on stratocumulus and highlight the need for further research into lower tropospheric stability dynamics.
Hans Segura, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Philipp Weiss, Sebastian K. Müller, Thomas Rackow, Junhong Lee, Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Imme Benedict, Matthias Aengenheyster, Razvan Aguridan, Gabriele Arduini, Alexander J. Baker, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Eulàlia Baulenas, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Beyer, Hendryk Bockelmann, Nils Brüggemann, Lukas Brunner, Suvarchal K. Cheedela, Sushant Das, Jasper Denissen, Ian Dragaud, Piotr Dziekan, Madeleine Ekblom, Jan Frederik Engels, Monika Esch, Richard Forbes, Claudia Frauen, Lilli Freischem, Diego García-Maroto, Philipp Geier, Paul Gierz, Álvaro González-Cervera, Katherine Grayson, Matthew Griffith, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Ioan Hadade, Kerstin Haslehner, Shabeh ul Hasson, Jan Hegewald, Lukas Kluft, Aleksei Koldunov, Nikolay Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Shunya Koseki, Sergey Kosukhin, Josh Kousal, Peter Kuma, Arjun U. Kumar, Rumeng Li, Nicolas Maury, Maximilian Meindl, Sebastian Milinski, Kristian Mogensen, Bimochan Niraula, Jakub Nowak, Divya Sri Praturi, Ulrike Proske, Dian Putrasahan, René Redler, David Santuy, Domokos Sármány, Reiner Schnur, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Dorian Spät, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Adrian Tompkins, Alejandro Uribe, Mirco Valentini, Menno Veerman, Aiko Voigt, Sarah Warnau, Fabian Wachsmann, Marta Wacławczyk, Nils Wedi, Karl-Hermann Wieners, Jonathan Wille, Marius Winkler, Yuting Wu, Florian Ziemen, Janos Zimmermann, Frida A.-M. Bender, Dragana Bojovic, Sandrine Bony, Simona Bordoni, Patrice Brehmer, Marcus Dengler, Emanuel Dutra, Saliou Faye, Erich Fischer, Chiel van Heerwaarden, Cathy Hohenegger, Heikki Järvinen, Markus Jochum, Thomas Jung, Johann H. Jungclaus, Noel S. Keenlyside, Daniel Klocke, Heike Konow, Martina Klose, Szymon Malinowski, Olivia Martius, Thorsten Mauritsen, Juan Pedro Mellado, Theresa Mieslinger, Elsa Mohino, Hanna Pawłowska, Karsten Peters-von Gehlen, Abdoulaye Sarré, Pajam Sobhani, Philip Stier, Lauri Tuppi, Pier Luigi Vidale, Irina Sandu, and Bjorn Stevens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-509, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The nextGEMS project developed two Earth system models that resolve processes of the order of 10 km, giving more fidelity to the representation of local phenomena, globally. In its fourth cycle, nextGEMS performed simulations with coupled ocean, land, and atmosphere over the 2020–2049 period under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Here, we provide an overview of nextGEMS, insights into the model development, and the realism of multi-decadal, kilometer-scale simulations.
Diego Guizzardi, Monica Crippa, Tim Butler, Terry Keating, Rosa Wu, Jacek W. Kamiński, Jeroen Kuenen, Junichi Kurokawa, Satoru Chatani, Tazuko Morikawa, George Pouliot, Jacinthe Racine, Michael D. Moran, Zbigniew Klimont, Patrick M. Manseau, Rabab Mashayekhi, Barron H. Henderson, Steven J. Smith, Rachel Hoesly, Marilena Muntean, Manjola Banja, Edwin Schaaf, Federico Pagani, Jung-Hun Woo, Jinseok Kim, Enrico Pisoni, Junhua Zhang, David Niemi, Mourad Sassi, Annie Duhamel, Tabish Ansari, Kristen Foley, Guannan Geng, Yifei Chen, and Qiang Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-601, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-601, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
The global air pollution emission mosaic HTAP_v3.1 is the state-of-the-art database for addressing the evolution of a set of policy-relevant air pollutants over the past 2 decades. The inventory is made by the harmonization and blending of seven regional inventories, gapfilled using the most recent release of EDGAR (EDGARv8). By incorporating the best available local information, the HTAP_v3.1 mosaic inventory can be used for policy-relevant studies at both regional and global levels.
Detlef van Vuuren, Brian O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Louise Chini, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tomoko Hasegawa, Keywan Riahi, Benjamin Sanderson, Bala Govindasamy, Nico Bauer, Veronika Eyring, Cheikh Fall, Katja Frieler, Matthew Gidden, Laila Gohar, Andrew Jones, Andrew King, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Peter Lawrence, Chris Lennard, Jason Lowe, Camila Mathison, Shahbaz Mehmood, Luciana Prado, Qiang Zhang, Steven Rose, Alexander Ruane, Carl-Friederich Schleussner, Roland Seferian, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Anna Sörensson, Swapna Panickal, Kaoru Tachiiri, Naomi Vaughan, Saritha Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a set of six plausible 21st century emission scenarios, and their multi-century extensions, that will be used by the international community of climate modeling centers to produce the next generation of climate projections. These projections will support climate, impact and mitigation researchers, provide information to practitioners to address future risks from climate change, and contribute to policymakers’ considerations of the trade-offs among various levels of mitigation.
Claudia Christine Stephan and Bjorn Stevens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1209–1226, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1209-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1209-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical precipitation cluster area and intensity distributions follow power laws, but the physical processes responsible for this behavior remain unknown. We analyze global simulations that realistically represent precipitation processes. We consider Earth-like planets as well as virtual planets to realize different types of large-scale dynamics. Our finding is that power laws in Earth’s precipitation cluster statistics stem from the robust power laws in Earth’s atmospheric wind field.
Lara Welder, Neil Grant, and Matthew J. Gidden
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 239–252, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-239-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-239-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Pathways investigating the link between emissions and global warming have been continuously used to inform climate policy. We have developed a tool that can facilitate the systematic and robust analysis of ensembles of such pathways. We describe the structure of this tool and then show an illustrative application of it. The application indicates the usefulness of the tool to the research community and shows how it can be used to establish best practices.
Lukas Kluft, Bjorn Stevens, Manfred Brath, and Stefan A. Buehler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3829, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3829, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using a single column model, we investigate the effect of the vertical distribution of clouds on climate sensitivity. We show that, depending on their height, clouds can mask or unmask the radiative response of the clear-sky atmosphere. Our single column model yields an all-sky climate sensitivity of 2.2 K, slightly less than the clear-sky value. This value can be interpreted as a baseline to which changes in surface albedo and an assumed reduction in cloud albedo would add.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Felix Jäger, Jonas Schwaab, Yann Quilcaille, Michael Windisch, Jonathan Doelman, Stefan Frank, Mykola Gusti, Petr Havlik, Florian Humpenöder, Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Christoph Müller, Kanishka Balu Narayan, Ryan Sebastian Padrón, Alexander Popp, Detlef van Vuuren, Michael Wögerer, and Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1055–1071, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change mitigation strategies developed with socioeconomic models rely on the widespread (re)planting of trees to limit global warming below 2°. However, most of these models neglect climate-driven shifts in forest damage like fires. By assessing existing mitigation scenarios, we show the exposure of projected forestation areas to fire-promoting weather conditions. Our study highlights the problem of ignoring climate-driven shifts in forest damage and ways to address it.
Manfred Wendisch, Susanne Crewell, André Ehrlich, Andreas Herber, Benjamin Kirbus, Christof Lüpkes, Mario Mech, Steven J. Abel, Elisa F. Akansu, Felix Ament, Clémantyne Aubry, Sebastian Becker, Stephan Borrmann, Heiko Bozem, Marlen Brückner, Hans-Christian Clemen, Sandro Dahlke, Georgios Dekoutsidis, Julien Delanoë, Elena De La Torre Castro, Henning Dorff, Regis Dupuy, Oliver Eppers, Florian Ewald, Geet George, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Sarah Grawe, Silke Groß, Jörg Hartmann, Silvia Henning, Lutz Hirsch, Evelyn Jäkel, Philipp Joppe, Olivier Jourdan, Zsofia Jurányi, Michail Karalis, Mona Kellermann, Marcus Klingebiel, Michael Lonardi, Johannes Lucke, Anna E. Luebke, Maximilian Maahn, Nina Maherndl, Marion Maturilli, Bernhard Mayer, Johanna Mayer, Stephan Mertes, Janosch Michaelis, Michel Michalkov, Guillaume Mioche, Manuel Moser, Hanno Müller, Roel Neggers, Davide Ori, Daria Paul, Fiona M. Paulus, Christian Pilz, Felix Pithan, Mira Pöhlker, Veronika Pörtge, Maximilian Ringel, Nils Risse, Gregory C. Roberts, Sophie Rosenburg, Johannes Röttenbacher, Janna Rückert, Michael Schäfer, Jonas Schaefer, Vera Schemann, Imke Schirmacher, Jörg Schmidt, Sebastian Schmidt, Johannes Schneider, Sabrina Schnitt, Anja Schwarz, Holger Siebert, Harald Sodemann, Tim Sperzel, Gunnar Spreen, Bjorn Stevens, Frank Stratmann, Gunilla Svensson, Christian Tatzelt, Thomas Tuch, Timo Vihma, Christiane Voigt, Lea Volkmer, Andreas Walbröl, Anna Weber, Birgit Wehner, Bruno Wetzel, Martin Wirth, and Tobias Zinner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8865–8892, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8865-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8865-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the globe. Warm-air intrusions (WAIs) into the Arctic may play an important role in explaining this phenomenon. Cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) out of the Arctic may link the Arctic climate changes to mid-latitude weather. In our article, we describe how to observe air mass transformations during CAOs and WAIs using three research aircraft instrumented with state-of-the-art remote-sensing and in situ measurement devices.
Kalyn Dorheim, Skylar Gering, Robert Gieseke, Corinne Hartin, Leeya Pressburger, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Steven J. Smith, Claudia Tebaldi, Dawn L. Woodard, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4855–4869, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hector is an easy-to-use, global climate–carbon cycle model. With its quick run time, Hector can provide climate information from a run in a fraction of a second. Hector models on a global and annual basis. Here, we present an updated version of the model, Hector V3. In this paper, we document Hector’s new features. Hector V3 is capable of reproducing historical observations, and its future temperature projections are consistent with those of more complex models.
Antonin Soulie, Claire Granier, Sabine Darras, Nicolas Zilbermann, Thierno Doumbia, Marc Guevara, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Sekou Keita, Cathy Liousse, Monica Crippa, Diego Guizzardi, Rachel Hoesly, and Steven J. Smith
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2261–2279, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic emissions are the result of transportation, power generation, industrial, residential and commercial activities as well as waste treatment and agriculture practices. This work describes the new CAMS-GLOB-ANT gridded inventory of 2000–2023 anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases. The methodology to generate the emissions is explained and the datasets are analysed and compared with publicly available global and regional inventories for selected world regions.
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2113–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Muhammad Awais, Adriano Vinca, Edward Byers, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Esther Boere, Peter Burek, Miguel Poblete Cazenave, Paul Natsuo Kishimoto, Alessio Mastrucci, Yusuke Satoh, Amanda Palazzo, Madeleine McPherson, Keywan Riahi, and Volker Krey
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2447–2469, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2447-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2447-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change, population growth, and depletion of natural resources all pose complex and interconnected challenges. Our research offers a novel model that can help in understanding the interplay of these aspects, providing policymakers with a more robust tool for making informed future decisions. The study highlights the significance of incorporating climate impacts within large-scale global integrated assessments, which can help us in generating more climate-resilient scenarios.
Fei Liu, Steffen Beirle, Joanna Joiner, Sungyeon Choi, Zhining Tao, K. Emma Knowland, Steven J. Smith, Daniel Q. Tong, Siqi Ma, Zachary T. Fasnacht, and Thomas Wagner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3717–3728, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3717-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3717-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using satellite data, we developed a coupled method independent of the chemical transport model to map NOx emissions across US cities. After validating our technique with synthetic data, we charted NOx emissions from 2018–2021 in 39 cities. Our results closely matched EPA estimates but also highlighted some inconsistencies in both magnitude and spatial distribution. This research can help refine strategies for monitoring and managing air quality.
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate scientists want to better understand modern climate change. Thus, climate model experiments are performed and compared. The results of climate model experiments differ, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article gives insights into the challenges and outlines opportunities for further improving the understanding of climate change. It is based on views of a group of experts in atmospheric composition–climate interactions.
Hauke Schmidt, Sebastian Rast, Jiawei Bao, Amrit Cassim, Shih-Wei Fang, Diego Jimenez-de la Cuesta, Paul Keil, Lukas Kluft, Clarissa Kroll, Theresa Lang, Ulrike Niemeier, Andrea Schneidereit, Andrew I. L. Williams, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1563–1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1563-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1563-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A recent development in numerical simulations of the global atmosphere is the increase in horizontal resolution to grid spacings of a few kilometers. However, the vertical grid spacing of these models has not been reduced at the same rate as the horizontal grid spacing. Here, we assess the effects of much finer vertical grid spacings, in particular the impacts on cloud quantities and the atmospheric energy balance.
Sabrina Schnitt, Andreas Foth, Heike Kalesse-Los, Mario Mech, Claudia Acquistapace, Friedhelm Jansen, Ulrich Löhnert, Bernhard Pospichal, Johannes Röttenbacher, Susanne Crewell, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 681–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This publication describes the microwave radiometric measurements performed during the EUREC4A campaign at Barbados Cloud Observatory (BCO) and aboard RV Meteor and RV Maria S Merian. We present retrieved integrated water vapor (IWV), liquid water path (LWP), and temperature and humidity profiles as a unified, quality-controlled, multi-site data set on a 3 s temporal resolution for a core period between 19 January 2020 and 14 February 2020.
Hamza Ahsan, Hailong Wang, Jingbo Wu, Mingxuan Wu, Steven J. Smith, Susanne Bauer, Harrison Suchyta, Dirk Olivié, Gunnar Myhre, Hitoshi Matsui, Huisheng Bian, Jean-François Lamarque, Ken Carslaw, Larry Horowitz, Leighton Regayre, Mian Chin, Michael Schulz, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Vaishali Naik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14779–14799, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the impact of the assumed effective height of SO2 injection, SO2 and BC emission seasonality, and the assumed fraction of SO2 emissions injected as SO4 on climate and chemistry model results. We find that the SO2 injection height has a large impact on surface SO2 concentrations and, in some models, radiative flux. These assumptions are a
hiddensource of inter-model variability and may be leading to bias in some climate model results.
Bjorn Stevens and Lukas Kluft
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14673–14689, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14673-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14673-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A simple model is introduced to account for the spectral diversity of radiant energy transfer. It provides an improved basis for assessing the different ways in which clouds influence Earth’s climate sensitivity, demonstrating how many cloud effects depend on the existing cloud climatology. Given existing assessments of changes in cloud albedo with warming, it is determined that clouds reduce Earth's climate sensitivity as compared to what it would be in a counterfactual world without clouds.
Mahdi Boroughani, Fahimeh Mirchooli, Mojtaba Hadavifar, and Stephanie Fiedler
SOIL, 9, 411–423, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-9-411-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-9-411-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The present study used several different datasets, conducted a field survey, and paired the data with three different machine learning algorithms to construct spatial maps for areas at risk of land degradation for the Lut watershed in Iran. According to the land degradation map, almost the entire study region is at risk. A large fraction of 43 % of the area is prone to both high wind-driven and water-driven soil erosion.
Monica Crippa, Diego Guizzardi, Tim Butler, Terry Keating, Rosa Wu, Jacek Kaminski, Jeroen Kuenen, Junichi Kurokawa, Satoru Chatani, Tazuko Morikawa, George Pouliot, Jacinthe Racine, Michael D. Moran, Zbigniew Klimont, Patrick M. Manseau, Rabab Mashayekhi, Barron H. Henderson, Steven J. Smith, Harrison Suchyta, Marilena Muntean, Efisio Solazzo, Manjola Banja, Edwin Schaaf, Federico Pagani, Jung-Hun Woo, Jinseok Kim, Fabio Monforti-Ferrario, Enrico Pisoni, Junhua Zhang, David Niemi, Mourad Sassi, Tabish Ansari, and Kristen Foley
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2667–2694, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2667-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2667-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study responds to the global and regional atmospheric modelling community's need for a mosaic of air pollutant emissions with global coverage, long time series, spatially distributed data at a high time resolution, and a high sectoral resolution in order to enhance the understanding of transboundary air pollution. The mosaic approach to integrating official regional emission inventories with a global inventory based on a consistent methodology ensures policy-relevant results.
André Ehrlich, Martin Zöger, Andreas Giez, Vladyslav Nenakhov, Christian Mallaun, Rolf Maser, Timo Röschenthaler, Anna E. Luebke, Kevin Wolf, Bjorn Stevens, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 1563–1581, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-1563-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-1563-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Measurements of the broadband radiative energy budget from aircraft are needed to study the effect of clouds, aerosol particles, and surface conditions on the Earth's energy budget. However, the moving aircraft introduces challenges to the instrument performance and post-processing of the data. This study introduces a new radiometer package, outlines a greatly simplifying method to correct thermal offsets, and provides exemplary measurements of solar and thermal–infrared irradiance.
Robin N. Thor, Mariano Mertens, Sigrun Matthes, Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, Sabine Brinkop, Phoebe Graf, Volker Grewe, Patrick Jöckel, and Steven Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1459–1466, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1459-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1459-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We report on an inconsistency in the latitudinal distribution of aviation emissions between two versions of a data product which is widely used by researchers. From the available documentation, we do not expect such an inconsistency. We run a chemistry–climate model to compute the effect of the inconsistency in emissions on atmospheric chemistry and radiation and find that the radiative forcing associated with aviation ozone is 7.6 % higher when using the less recent version of the data.
Mark Reyers, Stephanie Fiedler, Patrick Ludwig, Christoph Böhm, Volker Wennrich, and Yaping Shao
Clim. Past, 19, 517–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we performed high-resolution climate model simulations for the hyper-arid Atacama Desert for the mid-Pliocene (3.2 Ma). The aim is to uncover the atmospheric processes that are involved in the enhancement of strong rainfall events during this period. We find that strong upper-level moisture fluxes (so-called moisture conveyor belts) originating in the tropical eastern Pacific are the main driver for increased rainfall in the mid-Pliocene.
Adriana Bailey, Franziska Aemisegger, Leonie Villiger, Sebastian A. Los, Gilles Reverdin, Estefanía Quiñones Meléndez, Claudia Acquistapace, Dariusz B. Baranowski, Tobias Böck, Sandrine Bony, Tobias Bordsdorff, Derek Coffman, Simon P. de Szoeke, Christopher J. Diekmann, Marina Dütsch, Benjamin Ertl, Joseph Galewsky, Dean Henze, Przemyslaw Makuch, David Noone, Patricia K. Quinn, Michael Rösch, Andreas Schneider, Matthias Schneider, Sabrina Speich, Bjorn Stevens, and Elizabeth J. Thompson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 465–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-465-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
One of the novel ways EUREC4A set out to investigate trade wind clouds and their coupling to the large-scale circulation was through an extensive network of isotopic measurements in water vapor, precipitation, and seawater. Samples were taken from the island of Barbados, from aboard two aircraft, and from aboard four ships. This paper describes the full collection of EUREC4A isotopic in situ data and guides readers to complementary remotely sensed water vapor isotope ratios.
Cathy Hohenegger, Peter Korn, Leonidas Linardakis, René Redler, Reiner Schnur, Panagiotis Adamidis, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Milad Behravesh, Martin Bergemann, Joachim Biercamp, Hendryk Bockelmann, Renate Brokopf, Nils Brüggemann, Lucas Casaroli, Fatemeh Chegini, George Datseris, Monika Esch, Geet George, Marco Giorgetta, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Moritz Hanke, Tatiana Ilyina, Thomas Jahns, Johann Jungclaus, Marcel Kern, Daniel Klocke, Lukas Kluft, Tobias Kölling, Luis Kornblueh, Sergey Kosukhin, Clarissa Kroll, Junhong Lee, Thorsten Mauritsen, Carolin Mehlmann, Theresa Mieslinger, Ann Kristin Naumann, Laura Paccini, Angel Peinado, Divya Sri Praturi, Dian Putrasahan, Sebastian Rast, Thomas Riddick, Niklas Roeber, Hauke Schmidt, Uwe Schulzweida, Florian Schütte, Hans Segura, Radomyra Shevchenko, Vikram Singh, Mia Specht, Claudia Christine Stephan, Jin-Song von Storch, Raphaela Vogel, Christian Wengel, Marius Winkler, Florian Ziemen, Jochem Marotzke, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 779–811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Models of the Earth system used to understand climate and predict its change typically employ a grid spacing of about 100 km. Yet, many atmospheric and oceanic processes occur on much smaller scales. In this study, we present a new model configuration designed for the simulation of the components of the Earth system and their interactions at kilometer and smaller scales, allowing an explicit representation of the main drivers of the flow of energy and matter by solving the underlying equations.
Jarmo S. Kikstra, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Christopher J. Smith, Jared Lewis, Robin D. Lamboll, Edward Byers, Marit Sandstad, Malte Meinshausen, Matthew J. Gidden, Joeri Rogelj, Elmar Kriegler, Glen P. Peters, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Bjørn H. Samset, Laura Wienpahl, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Piers M. Forster, Andy Reisinger, Roberto Schaeffer, and Keywan Riahi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9075–9109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing hundreds or thousands of emission scenarios in terms of their global mean temperature implications requires standardised procedures of infilling, harmonisation, and probabilistic temperature assessments. We here present the open-source
climate-assessmentworkflow that was used in the IPCC AR6 Working Group III report. The paper provides key insight for anyone wishing to understand the assessment of climate outcomes of mitigation pathways in the context of the Paris Agreement.
Steven J. Smith, Erin E. McDuffie, and Molly Charles
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13201–13218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Emissions into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and air pollutants, quantified in emission inventories, impact human health, ecosystems, and the climate. We review how air pollutant and GHG inventory activities have historically been structured and their different uses and requirements. We discuss the benefits of increasing coordination between air pollutant and GHG inventory development efforts, but also caution that there are differences in appropriate methodologies and applications.
Marco A. Giorgetta, William Sawyer, Xavier Lapillonne, Panagiotis Adamidis, Dmitry Alexeev, Valentin Clément, Remo Dietlicher, Jan Frederik Engels, Monika Esch, Henning Franke, Claudia Frauen, Walter M. Hannah, Benjamin R. Hillman, Luis Kornblueh, Philippe Marti, Matthew R. Norman, Robert Pincus, Sebastian Rast, Daniel Reinert, Reiner Schnur, Uwe Schulzweida, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6985–7016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6985-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents a first version of the ICON atmosphere model that works not only on CPUs, but also on GPUs. This GPU-enabled ICON version is benchmarked on two GPU machines and a CPU machine. While the weak scaling is very good on CPUs and GPUs, the strong scaling is poor on GPUs. But the high performance of GPU machines allowed for first simulations of a short period of the quasi-biennial oscillation at very high resolution with explicit convection and gravity wave forcing.
Eduardo Weide Luiz and Stephanie Fiedler
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 1575–1591, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1575-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work analyses a meteorological event, called nocturnal low-level jets (NLLJs), defined as high wind speeds relatively close to the surface. There were positive and negative impacts from NLLJs. While NLLJs increased the mean power production, they also increased the variability in the wind with height. Our results imply that long NLLJ events are also larger, affecting many wind turbines at the same time. Short NLLJ events are more local, having stronger effects on power variability.
Theresa Mieslinger, Bjorn Stevens, Tobias Kölling, Manfred Brath, Martin Wirth, and Stefan A. Buehler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6879–6898, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6879-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6879-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The trades are home to a plethora of small cumulus clouds that are often barely visible to the human eye and difficult to detect with active and passive remote sensing methods. With the help of a new method and by means of high-resolution data we can detect small and particularly thin clouds. We find that optically thin clouds are a common phenomenon in the trades, covering a large area and influencing the radiative effect of clouds if they are undetected and contaminate the cloud-free signal.
Julian Steinheuer, Carola Detring, Frank Beyrich, Ulrich Löhnert, Petra Friederichs, and Stephanie Fiedler
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 3243–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3243-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3243-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Doppler wind lidars (DWLs) allow the determination of wind profiles with high vertical resolution and thus provide an alternative to meteorological towers. We address the question of whether wind gusts can be derived since they are short-lived phenomena. Therefore, we compare different DWL configurations and develop a new method applicable to all of them. A fast continuous scanning mode that completes a full observation cycle within 3.4 s is found to be the best-performing configuration.
Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Julien Delanoë, Pierre Coutris, Jean-Claude Etienne, Franziska Aemisegger, Anna Lea Albright, Thierry André, Hubert Bellec, Alexandre Baron, Jean-François Bourdinot, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Aurélien Bourdon, Jean-Christophe Canonici, Christophe Caudoux, Patrick Chazette, Michel Cluzeau, Céline Cornet, Jean-Philippe Desbios, Dominique Duchanoy, Cyrille Flamant, Benjamin Fildier, Christophe Gourbeyre, Laurent Guiraud, Tetyana Jiang, Claude Lainard, Christophe Le Gac, Christian Lendroit, Julien Lernould, Thierry Perrin, Frédéric Pouvesle, Pascal Richard, Nicolas Rochetin, Kevin Salaün, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Guillaume Seurat, Bjorn Stevens, Julien Totems, Ludovic Touzé-Peiffer, Gilles Vergez, Jessica Vial, Leonie Villiger, and Raphaela Vogel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2021–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2021-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2021-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The French ATR42 research aircraft participated in the EUREC4A international field campaign that took place in 2020 over the tropical Atlantic, east of Barbados. We present the extensive instrumentation of the aircraft, the research flights and the different measurements. We show that the ATR measurements of humidity, wind, aerosols and cloudiness in the lower atmosphere are robust and consistent with each other. They will make it possible to advance understanding of cloud–climate interactions.
Sumanta Sarkhel, Gunter Stober, Jorge L. Chau, Steven M. Smith, Christoph Jacobi, Subarna Mondal, Martin G. Mlynczak, and James M. Russell III
Ann. Geophys., 40, 179–190, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-179-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-179-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A rare gravity wave event was observed on the night of 25 April 2017 over northern Germany. An all-sky airglow imager recorded an upward-propagating wave at different altitudes in mesosphere with a prominent wave front above 91 km and faintly observed below. Based on wind and satellite-borne temperature profiles close to the event location, we have found the presence of a leaky thermal duct layer in 85–91 km. The appearance of this duct layer caused the wave amplitudes to diminish below 91 km.
Michael Schäfer, Kevin Wolf, André Ehrlich, Christoph Hallbauer, Evelyn Jäkel, Friedhelm Jansen, Anna Elizabeth Luebke, Joshua Müller, Jakob Thoböll, Timo Röschenthaler, Bjorn Stevens, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 1491–1509, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1491-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The new airborne thermal infrared imager VELOX is introduced. It measures two-dimensional fields of spectral thermal infrared radiance or brightness temperature within the large atmospheric window. The technical specifications as well as necessary calibration and correction procedures are presented. Example measurements from the first field deployment are analysed with respect to cloud coverage and cloud top altitude.
Fei Liu, Zhining Tao, Steffen Beirle, Joanna Joiner, Yasuko Yoshida, Steven J. Smith, K. Emma Knowland, and Thomas Wagner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1333–1349, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1333-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1333-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we present a novel method to infer NOx emissions and lifetimes based on tropospheric NO2 observations together with reanalysis wind fields for cities located in polluted backgrounds. We evaluate the accuracy of the method using synthetic NO2 observations derived from a high-resolution model simulation. Our work provides an estimate for uncertainties in satellite-derived emissions inferred from chemical transport model (CTM)-independent approaches.
Heike Konow, Florian Ewald, Geet George, Marek Jacob, Marcus Klingebiel, Tobias Kölling, Anna E. Luebke, Theresa Mieslinger, Veronika Pörtge, Jule Radtke, Michael Schäfer, Hauke Schulz, Raphaela Vogel, Martin Wirth, Sandrine Bony, Susanne Crewell, André Ehrlich, Linda Forster, Andreas Giez, Felix Gödde, Silke Groß, Manuel Gutleben, Martin Hagen, Lutz Hirsch, Friedhelm Jansen, Theresa Lang, Bernhard Mayer, Mario Mech, Marc Prange, Sabrina Schnitt, Jessica Vial, Andreas Walbröl, Manfred Wendisch, Kevin Wolf, Tobias Zinner, Martin Zöger, Felix Ament, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5545–5563, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5545-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The German research aircraft HALO took part in the research campaign EUREC4A in January and February 2020. The focus area was the tropical Atlantic east of the island of Barbados. We describe the characteristics of the 15 research flights, provide auxiliary information, derive combined cloud mask products from all instruments that observe clouds on board the aircraft, and provide code examples that help new users of the data to get started.
Geet George, Bjorn Stevens, Sandrine Bony, Robert Pincus, Chris Fairall, Hauke Schulz, Tobias Kölling, Quinn T. Kalen, Marcus Klingebiel, Heike Konow, Ashley Lundry, Marc Prange, and Jule Radtke
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5253–5272, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5253-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Dropsondes measure atmospheric parameters such as temperature, pressure, humidity and horizontal winds. The EUREC4A field campaign deployed 1215 dropsondes during January–February 2020 in the north Atlantic trade-wind region in order to characterize the thermodynamic and the dynamic structure of the atmosphere, primarily at horizontal scales of ~ 200 km. We present JOANNE, the dataset that provides these dropsonde measurements and thereby a rich characterization of the trade-wind atmosphere.
Jan C. Minx, William F. Lamb, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Monica Crippa, Niklas Döbbeling, Piers M. Forster, Diego Guizzardi, Jos Olivier, Glen P. Peters, Julia Pongratz, Andy Reisinger, Matthew Rigby, Marielle Saunois, Steven J. Smith, Efisio Solazzo, and Hanqin Tian
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5213–5252, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a synthetic dataset on anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 1970–2018 with a fast-track extension to 2019. We show that GHG emissions continued to rise across all gases and sectors. Annual average GHG emissions growth slowed, but absolute decadal increases have never been higher in human history. We identify a number of data gaps and data quality issues in global inventories and highlight their importance for monitoring progress towards international climate goals.
Bjorn Stevens, Sandrine Bony, David Farrell, Felix Ament, Alan Blyth, Christopher Fairall, Johannes Karstensen, Patricia K. Quinn, Sabrina Speich, Claudia Acquistapace, Franziska Aemisegger, Anna Lea Albright, Hugo Bellenger, Eberhard Bodenschatz, Kathy-Ann Caesar, Rebecca Chewitt-Lucas, Gijs de Boer, Julien Delanoë, Leif Denby, Florian Ewald, Benjamin Fildier, Marvin Forde, Geet George, Silke Gross, Martin Hagen, Andrea Hausold, Karen J. Heywood, Lutz Hirsch, Marek Jacob, Friedhelm Jansen, Stefan Kinne, Daniel Klocke, Tobias Kölling, Heike Konow, Marie Lothon, Wiebke Mohr, Ann Kristin Naumann, Louise Nuijens, Léa Olivier, Robert Pincus, Mira Pöhlker, Gilles Reverdin, Gregory Roberts, Sabrina Schnitt, Hauke Schulz, A. Pier Siebesma, Claudia Christine Stephan, Peter Sullivan, Ludovic Touzé-Peiffer, Jessica Vial, Raphaela Vogel, Paquita Zuidema, Nicola Alexander, Lyndon Alves, Sophian Arixi, Hamish Asmath, Gholamhossein Bagheri, Katharina Baier, Adriana Bailey, Dariusz Baranowski, Alexandre Baron, Sébastien Barrau, Paul A. Barrett, Frédéric Batier, Andreas Behrendt, Arne Bendinger, Florent Beucher, Sebastien Bigorre, Edmund Blades, Peter Blossey, Olivier Bock, Steven Böing, Pierre Bosser, Denis Bourras, Pascale Bouruet-Aubertot, Keith Bower, Pierre Branellec, Hubert Branger, Michal Brennek, Alan Brewer, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Björn Brügmann, Stefan A. Buehler, Elmo Burke, Ralph Burton, Radiance Calmer, Jean-Christophe Canonici, Xavier Carton, Gregory Cato Jr., Jude Andre Charles, Patrick Chazette, Yanxu Chen, Michal T. Chilinski, Thomas Choularton, Patrick Chuang, Shamal Clarke, Hugh Coe, Céline Cornet, Pierre Coutris, Fleur Couvreux, Susanne Crewell, Timothy Cronin, Zhiqiang Cui, Yannis Cuypers, Alton Daley, Gillian M. Damerell, Thibaut Dauhut, Hartwig Deneke, Jean-Philippe Desbios, Steffen Dörner, Sebastian Donner, Vincent Douet, Kyla Drushka, Marina Dütsch, André Ehrlich, Kerry Emanuel, Alexandros Emmanouilidis, Jean-Claude Etienne, Sheryl Etienne-Leblanc, Ghislain Faure, Graham Feingold, Luca Ferrero, Andreas Fix, Cyrille Flamant, Piotr Jacek Flatau, Gregory R. Foltz, Linda Forster, Iulian Furtuna, Alan Gadian, Joseph Galewsky, Martin Gallagher, Peter Gallimore, Cassandra Gaston, Chelle Gentemann, Nicolas Geyskens, Andreas Giez, John Gollop, Isabelle Gouirand, Christophe Gourbeyre, Dörte de Graaf, Geiske E. de Groot, Robert Grosz, Johannes Güttler, Manuel Gutleben, Kashawn Hall, George Harris, Kevin C. Helfer, Dean Henze, Calvert Herbert, Bruna Holanda, Antonio Ibanez-Landeta, Janet Intrieri, Suneil Iyer, Fabrice Julien, Heike Kalesse, Jan Kazil, Alexander Kellman, Abiel T. Kidane, Ulrike Kirchner, Marcus Klingebiel, Mareike Körner, Leslie Ann Kremper, Jan Kretzschmar, Ovid Krüger, Wojciech Kumala, Armin Kurz, Pierre L'Hégaret, Matthieu Labaste, Tom Lachlan-Cope, Arlene Laing, Peter Landschützer, Theresa Lang, Diego Lange, Ingo Lange, Clément Laplace, Gauke Lavik, Rémi Laxenaire, Caroline Le Bihan, Mason Leandro, Nathalie Lefevre, Marius Lena, Donald Lenschow, Qiang Li, Gary Lloyd, Sebastian Los, Niccolò Losi, Oscar Lovell, Christopher Luneau, Przemyslaw Makuch, Szymon Malinowski, Gaston Manta, Eleni Marinou, Nicholas Marsden, Sebastien Masson, Nicolas Maury, Bernhard Mayer, Margarette Mayers-Als, Christophe Mazel, Wayne McGeary, James C. McWilliams, Mario Mech, Melina Mehlmann, Agostino Niyonkuru Meroni, Theresa Mieslinger, Andreas Minikin, Peter Minnett, Gregor Möller, Yanmichel Morfa Avalos, Caroline Muller, Ionela Musat, Anna Napoli, Almuth Neuberger, Christophe Noisel, David Noone, Freja Nordsiek, Jakub L. Nowak, Lothar Oswald, Douglas J. Parker, Carolyn Peck, Renaud Person, Miriam Philippi, Albert Plueddemann, Christopher Pöhlker, Veronika Pörtge, Ulrich Pöschl, Lawrence Pologne, Michał Posyniak, Marc Prange, Estefanía Quiñones Meléndez, Jule Radtke, Karim Ramage, Jens Reimann, Lionel Renault, Klaus Reus, Ashford Reyes, Joachim Ribbe, Maximilian Ringel, Markus Ritschel, Cesar B. Rocha, Nicolas Rochetin, Johannes Röttenbacher, Callum Rollo, Haley Royer, Pauline Sadoulet, Leo Saffin, Sanola Sandiford, Irina Sandu, Michael Schäfer, Vera Schemann, Imke Schirmacher, Oliver Schlenczek, Jerome Schmidt, Marcel Schröder, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Andrea Sealy, Christoph J. Senff, Ilya Serikov, Samkeyat Shohan, Elizabeth Siddle, Alexander Smirnov, Florian Späth, Branden Spooner, M. Katharina Stolla, Wojciech Szkółka, Simon P. de Szoeke, Stéphane Tarot, Eleni Tetoni, Elizabeth Thompson, Jim Thomson, Lorenzo Tomassini, Julien Totems, Alma Anna Ubele, Leonie Villiger, Jan von Arx, Thomas Wagner, Andi Walther, Ben Webber, Manfred Wendisch, Shanice Whitehall, Anton Wiltshire, Allison A. Wing, Martin Wirth, Jonathan Wiskandt, Kevin Wolf, Ludwig Worbes, Ethan Wright, Volker Wulfmeyer, Shanea Young, Chidong Zhang, Dongxiao Zhang, Florian Ziemen, Tobias Zinner, and Martin Zöger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4067–4119, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The EUREC4A field campaign, designed to test hypothesized mechanisms by which clouds respond to warming and benchmark next-generation Earth-system models, is presented. EUREC4A comprised roughly 5 weeks of measurements in the downstream winter trades of the North Atlantic – eastward and southeastward of Barbados. It was the first campaign that attempted to characterize the full range of processes and scales influencing trade wind clouds.
Hyunju Jung, Ann Kristin Naumann, and Bjorn Stevens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10337–10345, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10337-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10337-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze the behavior of organized convection in a large-scale flow by imposing a mean flow to idealized simulations. In the mean flow, organized convection initially propagates slower than the mean wind speed and becomes stationary. The initial upstream and downstream difference in surface fluxes becomes symmetric as the surface momentum flux acts as a drag, resulting in the stationarity. Meanwhile, the surface enthalpy flux has a minor role in the propagation of the convection.
Robin D. Lamboll, Chris D. Jones, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Stephanie Fiedler, Bjørn H. Samset, Nathan P. Gillett, Joeri Rogelj, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3683–3695, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Lockdowns to avoid the spread of COVID-19 have created an unprecedented reduction in human emissions. We can estimate the changes in emissions at a country level, but to make predictions about how this will affect our climate, we need more precise information about where the emissions happen. Here we combine older estimates of where emissions normally occur with very recent estimates of sector activity levels to enable different groups to make simulations of the climatic effects of lockdown.
Garry D. Hayman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Chris Huntingford, Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, William Collins, Christopher Webber, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Joanna I. House, Jonathan C. Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, and Nicola Gedney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We model greenhouse gas emission scenarios consistent with limiting global warming to either 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify the effectiveness of methane emission control and land-based mitigation options regionally. Our results highlight the importance of reducing methane emissions for realistic emission pathways that meet the global warming targets. For land-based mitigation, growing bioenergy crops on existing agricultural land is preferable to replacing forests.
Franziska Aemisegger, Raphaela Vogel, Pascal Graf, Fabienne Dahinden, Leonie Villiger, Friedhelm Jansen, Sandrine Bony, Bjorn Stevens, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 281–309, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-281-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-281-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The interaction of clouds in the trade wind region with the atmospheric flow is complex and at the heart of uncertainties associated with climate projections. In this study, a natural tracer of atmospheric circulation is used to establish a link between air originating from dry regions of the midlatitudes and the occurrence of specific cloud patterns. Two pathways involving transport within midlatitude weather systems are identified, by which air is brought into the trades within 5–10 d.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Claudia Christine Stephan, Sabrina Schnitt, Hauke Schulz, Hugo Bellenger, Simon P. de Szoeke, Claudia Acquistapace, Katharina Baier, Thibaut Dauhut, Rémi Laxenaire, Yanmichel Morfa-Avalos, Renaud Person, Estefanía Quiñones Meléndez, Gholamhossein Bagheri, Tobias Böck, Alton Daley, Johannes Güttler, Kevin C. Helfer, Sebastian A. Los, Almuth Neuberger, Johannes Röttenbacher, Andreas Raeke, Maximilian Ringel, Markus Ritschel, Pauline Sadoulet, Imke Schirmacher, M. Katharina Stolla, Ethan Wright, Benjamin Charpentier, Alexis Doerenbecher, Richard Wilson, Friedhelm Jansen, Stefan Kinne, Gilles Reverdin, Sabrina Speich, Sandrine Bony, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 491–514, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-491-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-491-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The EUREC4A field campaign took place in the western tropical Atlantic during January and February 2020. A total of 811 radiosondes, launched regularly (usually 4-hourly) from Barbados, and 4 ships measured wind, temperature, and relative humidity. They sampled atmospheric variability associated with different ocean surface conditions, synoptic variability, and mesoscale convective organization. The methods of data collection and post-processing for the radiosonde data are described here.
Gillian Thornhill, William Collins, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alex Archibald, Susanne Bauer, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Stephanie Fiedler, Gerd Folberth, Ada Gjermundsen, Larry Horowitz, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Fabien Paulot, Michael Schulz, Catherine E. Scott, Roland Séférian, Chris Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and James Weber
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1105–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We find that increased temperatures affect aerosols and reactive gases by changing natural emissions and their rates of removal from the atmosphere. Changing the composition of these species in the atmosphere affects the radiative budget of the climate system and therefore amplifies or dampens the climate response of climate models of the Earth system. This study found that the largest effect is a dampening of climate change as warmer temperatures increase the emissions of cooling aerosols.
Kalyn Dorheim, Steven J. Smith, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 365–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-365-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-365-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Simple climate models are frequently used in research and decision-making communities because of their tractability and low computational cost. Simple climate models are diverse, including highly idealized and process-based models. Here we present a hybrid approach that combines the strength of two types of simple climate models in a flexible framework. This hybrid approach has provided insights into the climate system and opens an avenue for investigating radiative forcing uncertainties.
Erin E. McDuffie, Steven J. Smith, Patrick O'Rourke, Kushal Tibrewal, Chandra Venkataraman, Eloise A. Marais, Bo Zheng, Monica Crippa, Michael Brauer, and Randall V. Martin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3413–3442, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3413-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3413-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Global emission inventories are vital to understanding the impacts of air pollution on the environment, human health, and society. We update the open-source Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) to provide global gridded emissions of seven key air pollutants from 1970–2017 for 11 source sectors and multiple fuel types, including coal, solid biofuel, and liquid oil and natural gas. This dataset includes both monthly global gridded emissions and annual national totals.
George C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Justin Fisk, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlik, Andreas Heinimann, Florian Humpenöder, Johan Jungclaus, Jed O. Kaplan, Jennifer Kennedy, Tamás Krisztin, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Lei Ma, Ole Mertz, Julia Pongratz, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Keywan Riahi, Elena Shevliakova, Elke Stehfest, Peter Thornton, Francesco N. Tubiello, Detlef P. van Vuuren, and Xin Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To estimate the effects of human land use activities on the carbon–climate system, a new set of global gridded land use forcing datasets was developed to link historical land use data to eight future scenarios in a standard format required by climate models. This new generation of land use harmonization (LUH2) includes updated inputs, higher spatial resolution, more detailed land use transitions, and the addition of important agricultural management layers; it will be used for CMIP6 simulations.
Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Jared Lewis, Robert Gieseke, Dietmar Dommenget, Kalyn Dorheim, Chen-Shuo Fan, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Thomas Gasser, Ulrich Golüke, Philip Goodwin, Corinne Hartin, Austin P. Hope, Elmar Kriegler, Nicholas J. Leach, Davide Marchegiani, Laura A. McBride, Yann Quilcaille, Joeri Rogelj, Ross J. Salawitch, Bjørn H. Samset, Marit Sandstad, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Christopher J. Smith, Steve Smith, Katsumasa Tanaka, Junichi Tsutsui, and Zhiang Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5175–5190, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Computational limits mean that we cannot run our most comprehensive climate models for all applications of interest. In such cases, reduced complexity models (RCMs) are used. Here, researchers working on 15 different models present the first systematic community effort to evaluate and compare RCMs: the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). Our research ensures that users of RCMs can more easily evaluate the strengths, weaknesses and limitations of their tools.
Cited articles
Andreae, M. O.: Correlation between cloud condensation nuclei concentration
and aerosol optical thickness in remote and polluted regions, Atmos. Chem.
Phys., 9, 543–556, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-543-2009, 2009. a
Bellouin, N., Rae, J., Jones, A., Johnson, C., Haywood, J., and Boucher, O.:
Aerosol forcing in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)
simulations by HadGEM2-ES and the role of ammonium nitrate, J. Geophys. Res,
116, D20206, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016074, 2011. a
Boer, G. J., Smith, D. M., Cassou, C., Doblas-Reyes, F., Danabasoglu, G.,
Kirtman, B., Kushnir, Y., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G. A., Msadek, R., Mueller, W.
A., Taylor, K. E., Zwiers, F., Rixen, M., Ruprich-Robert, Y., and Eade, R.:
The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6, Geosci.
Model Dev., 9, 3751–3777, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3751-2016, 2016. a
Bony, S., Stevens, B., Frierson, D. M. W., Jakob, C., Kageyama, M., Pincus,
R., Shepherd, T. G., Sherwood, S. C., Siebesma, A. P., Sobel, A. H.,
Watanabe, M., and Webb, M. J.:: Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity,
Nat. Geosci., 8, 261–268, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2398, 2015. a
Carslaw, K. S., Lee, L. A., Reddington, C. L., Pringle, K. J., Rap, A.,
Forster, P. M., Mann, G. W., Spracklen, D. V., Woodhouse, M. T., Regayre, L.
A., and Pierce, J. R.:: Large contribution of natural aerosols to uncertainty
in indirect forcing, Nature, 503, 67–71, 2013. a
Chung, E.-S. and Soden, B. J.: Hemispheric climate shifts driven by
anthropogenic aerosol–cloud interactions, Nat. Geosci., 10, 566–571,
https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2988, 2017. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R.
J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9,
1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Fiedler, S., Knippertz, P., Woodward, S., Martin, G. M., Bellouin, N., Ross,
A. N., Heinold, B., Schepanski, K., Birch, C. E., and Tegen, I.: A
process-based evaluation of dust-emitting winds in the CMIP5 simulation of
HadGEM2-ES, Clim. Dynam., 46, 1107–1130, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2635-9,
2016. a
Gidden, M. J., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Fujimori, S., Luderer, G., Kriegler,
E., van Vuuren, D. P., van den Berg, M., Feng, L., Klein, D., Calvin, K.,
Doelman, J. C., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Harmsen, M., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P.,
Hilaire, J., Hoesly, R., Horing, J., Popp, A., Stehfest, E., and Takahashi,
K.: Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use
in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of
the century, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-266, in review, 2018. a, b, c, d
Giorgetta, M. A., Brokopf, R., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fiedler, S., Helmert,
J., Hohenegger, C., Kornblueh, L., Köhler, M., Manzini, E., Mauritsen, T.,
Nam, C., Raddatz, T., Rast, S., Reinert, D., Sakradzija, M., Schmidt, H.,
Schneck, R., Schnur, R., Silvers, L., Wan, H., Zängl, G., and Stevens, B.:
ICON-A, the Atmosphere Component of the ICON Earth System Model: I. Model
Description, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 10, 1613–1637,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2017MS001242, 2018. a
Haarsma, R. J., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Senior, C. A., Bellucci, A.,
Bao, Q., Chang, P., Corti, S., Fučkar, N. S., Guemas, V., von Hardenberg,
J., Hazeleger, W., Kodama, C., Koenigk, T., Leung, L. R., Lu, J., Luo, J.-J.,
Mao, J., Mizielinski, M. S., Mizuta, R., Nobre, P., Satoh, M., Scoccimarro,
E., Semmler, T., Small, J., and von Storch, J.-S.: High Resolution Model
Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9,
4185–4208, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016, 2016. a
Kinne, S.: The Max-Planck Aerosol Climatology, version 2, Tellus B, in
review, 2019. a
Kinne, S., O'Donnel, D., Stier, P., Kloster, S., Zhang, K., Schmidt, H.,
Rast, S., Giorgetta, M., Eck, T. F., and Stevens, B.: MAC-v1: A new global
aerosol climatology for climate studies, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 5,
704–740, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20035, 2013. a
Lamarque, J.-F., Kyle, G. P., Meinshausen, M., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., van
Vuuren, D. P., Conley, A. J., and Vitt, F.: Global and regional evolution of
short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative
Concentration Pathways, Climatic Change, 109, 191–212,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0155-0, 2011. a
Marotzke, J., Müller, W. A., Vamborg, F. S. E., Becker, P., Cubasch, U.,
Feldmann, H., Kaspar, F., Kottmeier, C., Marini, C., Polkova, I., Prömmel,
K., Rust, H. W., Stammer, D., Ulbrich, U., Kadow, C., Köhl, A., Kröger,
J., Kruschke, T., Pinto, J. G., Pohlmann, H., Reyers, M., Schröder, M.,
Sienz, F., Timmreck, C., and Ziese, M.: MiKlip: A National Research Project
on Decadal Climate Prediction, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 2379–2394,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00184.1, 2016. a
T., Mauritsen, Bader, J., Becker, T., Behrens, J., Bittner, M., Brokopf, R.,
Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fast, I., Fiedler, S.,
Fläschner, D., Gayler, V., Giorgetta, M., Goll, D. S., Haak, H.,
Hagemann, S., Hedemann, C., Hohenegger, C., Ilyina, T., Jahns, T., Jimenez de
la Cuesta Otero, D., Jungclaus, J., Kleinen, T., Kloster, S., Kracher, D.,
Kinne, S., Kleberg, D., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D.,
Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Möbis, B., Müller, W. A.,
Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nam, C. C. W., Notz, D., Nyawira, S.-S., Paulsen, H.,
Peters, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Popp, M., Raddatz, T.,
Rast, S., Redler, R., Reick, C. H., Rohrschneider, T., Schemann, V., Schmidt,
H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K. D., Stein, L., Stemmler, I.,
Stevens, B., von Storch, J.-S., Tian, F., Voigt, A., de Vrese, P., Wieners,
K.-H., Wilkenskjeld, S., Winkler, A., and Roeckner, E.: Developments in the
MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM 1.2) and its response to
increasing CO2, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001400, 2019. a, b, c, d
Müller, W. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Mauritsen, T., Baehr, J., Bittner, M.,
Budich, R., Bunzel, F., Esch, M., Ghosh, R., Haak, H., Ilyina, T., Kleine,
T., Kornblueh, L., Li, H., Modali, K., Notz, D., Pohlmann, H., Roeckner, E.,
Stemmler, I., Tian, F., and Marotzke, J.: A Higher-resolution Version of the
Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2-HR), J. Adv. Model.
Earth Syst., 10, 1383–1413, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017MS001217, 2018. a
O'Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Ebi, K. L., Hallegatte, S., Carter,
T. R., Mathur, R., and van Vuuren, D. P.: A new scenario framework for
climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways,
Climatic Change, 122, 387–400, 2014. a
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein,
P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl, G.
A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., and Sanderson, B. M.: The Scenario Model
Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9,
3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016. a
Pincus, R., Forster, P. M., and Stevens, B.: The Radiative Forcing Model
Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): experimental protocol for CMIP6, Geosci.
Model Dev., 9, 3447–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3447-2016, 2016.
a, b
Quaas, J., Boucher, O., and Lohmann, U.: Constraining the total aerosol
indirect effect in the LMDZ and ECHAM4 GCMs using MODIS satellite data,
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 947–955, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-947-2006,
2006. a
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O'Neill, B. C.,
Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp,
A., Cuaresma, J. C., KC, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S.,
Emmerling, J., Ebi, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Silva, L.
A. D., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Bosetti, V., Eom, J., Gernaat, D., Masui, T.,
Rogelj, J., Strefler, J., Drouet, L., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Harmsen, M.,
Takahashi, K., Baumstark, L., Doelman, J. C., Kainuma, M., Klimont, Z.,
Marangoni, G., Lotze-Campen, H., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A., and Tavoni, M.:
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse
gas emissions implications: An overview, Global Environ. Chang., 42,
153–168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009, 2017. a, b, c, d
Rosenfeld, D., Sherwood, S., Wood, R., and Donner, L.: Climate Effects of
Aerosol-Cloud Interactions, Science, 343, 379–380,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1247490, 2014. a
Shindell, D. T., Lamarque, J.-F., Schulz, M., Flanner, M., Jiao, C., Chin,
M., Young, P. J., Lee, Y. H., Rotstayn, L., Mahowald, N., Milly, G.,
Faluvegi, G., Balkanski, Y., Collins, W. J., Conley, A. J., Dalsoren, S.,
Easter, R., Ghan, S., Horowitz, L., Liu, X., Myhre, G., Nagashima, T., Naik,
V., Rumbold, S. T., Skeie, R., Sudo, K., Szopa, S., Takemura, T.,
Voulgarakis, A., Yoon, J.-H., and Lo, F.: Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP
historical and future climate simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13,
2939–2974, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013, 2013. a
Stevens, B.: Rethinking the lower bound on aerosol radiative forcing, J.
Climate, 28, 4794–4819, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00656.1, 2015. a
Stevens, B. and Feingold, G.: Untangling aerosol effects on clouds and
precipitation in a buffered system, Nature, 461, 607–613, 2009. a
Stevens, B., Fiedler, S., Kinne, S., Peters, K., Rast, S., Müsse, J.,
Smith, S. J., and Mauritsen, T.: MACv2-SP: a parameterization of
anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect for
use in CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 433–452,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-433-2017, 2017. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p
Twomey, S.: Pollution and the planetary albedo, Atmos. Environ., 8,
1251–1256, 1974. a
