Articles | Volume 7, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Model experiment description paper
| 
10 Jul 2014
Model experiment description paper |
| 10 Jul 2014
Regional climate modeling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble
S. Kotlarski
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
K. Keuler
Chair of Environmental Meteorology, Brandenburg University of Technology (BTU), Cottbus-Senftenberg, Germany
O. B. Christensen
Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
A. Colette
Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Verneuil-en-Halatte, France
M. Déqué
Météo-France/CNRM, CNRS/GAME, Toulouse, France
A. Gobiet
Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
K. Goergen
Centre de Recherche Public – Gabriel Lippmann, Belvaux, Luxembourg
Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
D. Jacob
Climate Service Center 2.0, Hamburg, Germany
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
D. Lüthi
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
E. van Meijgaard
KNMI Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, the Netherlands
G. Nikulin
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
C. Teichmann
Climate Service Center 2.0, Hamburg, Germany
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
R. Vautard
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
K. Warrach-Sagi
Institute of Physics and Meteorology, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
V. Wulfmeyer
Institute of Physics and Meteorology, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
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Ruoyi Cui, Nikolina Ban, Marie-Estelle Demory, Raffael Aellig, Oliver Fuhrer, Jonas Jucker, Xavier Lapillonne, and Christoph Schär
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10145–10161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10145-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10145-2023, 2023
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1725, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1725, 2023
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5317–5333, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5317-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5317-2023, 2023
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Post-processing methods based on machine learning algorithms were applied to refine the forecasts of four key pollutants at monitoring sites across Europe. Performances show significant improvements compared to those of the deterministic model raw outputs. Taking advantage of the large modelling domain extension, an innovative
globalapproach is proposed to drastically reduce the period necessary to train the models and thus facilitate the implementation in an operational context.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
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The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Maria Chara Karypidou, Stefan Pieter Sobolowski, Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Grigory Nikulin, and Eleni Katragkou
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1887–1908, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1887-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1887-2023, 2023
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Southern Africa is listed among the climate change hotspots; hence, accurate climate change information is vital for the optimal preparedness of local communities. In this work we assess the degree to which regional climate models (RCMs) are influenced by the global climate models (GCMs) from which they receive their lateral boundary forcing. We find that although GCMs exert a strong impact on RCMs, RCMs are still able to display substantial improvement relative to the driving GCMs.
Veronika Ettrichrätz, Christian Beier, Klaus Keuler, and Katja Trachte
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-552, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-552, 2023
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Will heavy precipitation increase under climate change by the end of this century? The analyses of 40 regional climate simulations for two climate scenarios show that large parts of northern, central, and eastern Europe will be affected by a robust increase in heavy and extreme precipitation, while southwestern Europe will rather experience a slight decrease. Both the increase and the affected areas can be up to twice as large in an extreme than in a more moderate greenhouse gas scenario.
Bibi S. Naz, Wendy Sharples, Yueling Ma, Klaus Goergen, and Stefan Kollet
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1617–1639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1617-2023, 2023
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It is challenging to apply a high-resolution integrated land surface and groundwater model over large spatial scales. In this paper, we demonstrate the application of such a model over a pan-European domain at 3 km resolution and perform an extensive evaluation of simulated water states and fluxes by comparing with in situ and satellite data. This study can serve as a benchmark and baseline for future studies of climate change impact projections and for hydrological forecasting.
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
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Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
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A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Roman Brogli, Christoph Heim, Jonas Mensch, Silje Lund Sørland, and Christoph Schär
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 907–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-907-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-907-2023, 2023
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The pseudo-global-warming (PGW) approach is a downscaling methodology that imposes the large-scale GCM-based climate change signal on the boundary conditions of a regional climate simulation. It offers several benefits in comparison to conventional downscaling. We present a detailed description of the methodology, provide companion software to facilitate the preparation of PGW simulations, and present validation and sensitivity studies.
Qinggang Gao, Christian Zeman, Jesus Vergara-Temprado, Daniela C. A. Lima, Peter Molnar, and Christoph Schär
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 189–211, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-189-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-189-2023, 2023
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We developed a vortex identification algorithm for realistic atmospheric simulations. The algorithm enabled us to obtain a climatology of vortex shedding from Madeira Island for a 10-year simulation period. This first objective climatological analysis of vortex streets shows consistency with observed atmospheric conditions. The analysis shows a pronounced annual cycle with an increasing vortex shedding rate from April to August and a sudden decrease in September.
John Douros, Henk Eskes, Jos van Geffen, K. Folkert Boersma, Steven Compernolle, Gaia Pinardi, Anne-Marlene Blechschmidt, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Augustin Colette, and Pepijn Veefkind
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 509–534, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-509-2023, 2023
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We focus on the challenges associated with comparing atmospheric composition models with satellite products such as tropospheric NO2 columns. The aim is to highlight the methodological difficulties and propose sound ways of doing such comparisons. Building on the comparisons, a new satellite product is proposed and made available, which takes advantage of higher-resolution, regional atmospheric modelling to improve estimates of troposheric NO2 columns over Europe.
Florian Späth, Verena Rajtschan, Tobias K. D. Weber, Shehan Morandage, Diego Lange, Syed Saqlain Abbas, Andreas Behrendt, Joachim Ingwersen, Thilo Streck, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 12, 25–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-12-25-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-12-25-2023, 2023
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Important topics in land–atmosphere feedback research are water and energy balances and heterogeneities of fluxes at the land surface and in the atmosphere. To target these questions, the Land–Atmosphere Feedback Observatory (LAFO) has been installed in Germany. The instrumentation allows for comprehensive measurements from the bedrock to the troposphere. The LAFO observation strategy aims for simultaneous measurements in all three compartments: atmosphere, soil and land surface, and vegetation.
Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Faron S. Anslow, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Dim Coumou, Kristie L. Ebi, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, Maarten van Aalst, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Michael Wehner, Wenchang Yang, Sihan Li, Dominik L. Schumacher, Mathias Hauser, Rémy Bonnet, Linh N. Luu, Flavio Lehner, Nathan Gillett, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chris Rodell, Roland B. Stull, Rosie Howard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1689–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, 2022
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In June 2021, the Pacific Northwest of the US and Canada saw record temperatures far exceeding those previously observed. This attribution study found such a severe heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change. Assuming no nonlinear interactions, such events have become at least 150 times more common, are about 2 °C hotter and will become even more common as warming continues. Therefore, adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare society.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
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In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Christian R. Steger, Benjamin Steger, and Christoph Schär
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6817–6840, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6817-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6817-2022, 2022
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Terrain horizon and sky view factor are crucial quantities for many geoscientific applications; e.g. they are used to account for effects of terrain on surface radiation in climate and land surface models. Because typical terrain horizon algorithms are inefficient for high-resolution (< 30 m) elevation data, we developed a new algorithm based on a ray-tracing library. A comparison with two conventional methods revealed both its high performance and its accuracy for complex terrain.
Kathrin Wehrli, Fei Luo, Mathias Hauser, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, Dim Coumou, Wilhelm May, Philippe Le Sager, Frank Selten, Olivia Martius, Robert Vautard, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1167–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, 2022
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The ExtremeX experiment was designed to unravel the contribution of processes leading to the occurrence of recent weather and climate extremes. Global climate simulations are carried out with three models. The results show that in constrained experiments, temperature anomalies during heatwaves are well represented, although climatological model biases remain. Further, a substantial contribution of both atmospheric circulation and soil moisture to heat extremes is identified.
Swantje Preuschmann, Tanja Blome, Knut Görl, Fiona Köhnke, Bettina Steuri, Juliane El Zohbi, Diana Rechid, Martin Schultz, Jianing Sun, and Daniela Jacob
Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 51–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-51-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-51-2022, 2022
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The main aspect of the paper is to obtain transferable principles for the development of digital knowledge transfer products. As such products are still unstandardised, the authors explored challenges and approaches for product developments. The authors report what they see as useful principles for developing digital knowledge transfer products, by describing the experience of developing the Net-Zero-2050 Web-Atlas and the "Bodenkohlenstoff-App".
Svetlana Tsyro, Wenche Aas, Augustin Colette, Camilla Andersson, Bertrand Bessagnet, Giancarlo Ciarelli, Florian Couvidat, Kees Cuvelier, Astrid Manders, Kathleen Mar, Mihaela Mircea, Noelia Otero, Maria-Teresa Pay, Valentin Raffort, Yelva Roustan, Mark R. Theobald, Marta G. Vivanco, Hilde Fagerli, Peter Wind, Gino Briganti, Andrea Cappelletti, Massimo D'Isidoro, and Mario Adani
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7207–7257, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7207-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7207-2022, 2022
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Particulate matter (PM) air pollution causes adverse health effects. In Europe, the emissions caused by anthropogenic activities have been reduced in the last decades. To assess the efficiency of emission reductions in improving air quality, we have studied the evolution of PM pollution in Europe. Simulations with six air quality models and observational data indicate a decrease in PM concentrations by 10 % to 30 % across Europe from 2000 to 2010, which is mainly a result of emission reductions.
Elsa Real, Florian Couvidat, Anthony Ung, Laure Malherbe, Blandine Raux, Alicia Gressent, and Augustin Colette
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2419–2443, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2419-2022, 2022
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This paper describes a 16-year (2000–2015) dataset of air pollution concentrations and air quality indicators over France combining background measurements and modeling. Hourly concentrations and regulatory indicators of NO2, O3, PM10 and PM2.5 are produced with 4 km spatial resolution. The overall dataset has been cross-validated and showed overall very good results. We hope that this open-access publication will facilitate further studies on the impacts of air pollution.
Christian Zeman and Christoph Schär
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3183–3203, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3183-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3183-2022, 2022
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Our atmosphere is a chaotic system, where even a tiny change can have a big impact. This makes it difficult to assess if small changes, such as the move to a new hardware architecture, will significantly affect a weather and climate model. We present a methodology that allows to objectively verify this. The methodology is applied to several test cases, showing a high sensitivity. Results also show that a major system update of the underlying supercomputer did not significantly affect our model.
Dmitry V. Sein, Anton Y. Dvornikov, Stanislav D. Martyanov, William Cabos, Vladimir A. Ryabchenko, Matthias Gröger, Daniela Jacob, Alok Kumar Mishra, and Pankaj Kumar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 809–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-809-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-809-2022, 2022
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The effect of the marine biogeochemical variability upon the South Asian regional climate has been investigated. In the experiment where its full impact is activated, the average sea surface temperature is lower over most of the ocean. When the biogeochemical coupling is included, the main impacts include the enhanced phytoplankton primary production, a shallower thermocline, decreased SST and water temperature in subsurface layers.
Linh N. Luu, Robert Vautard, Pascal Yiou, and Jean-Michel Soubeyroux
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 687–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-687-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-687-2022, 2022
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This study downscales climate information from EURO-CORDEX (approx. 12 km) output to a higher horizontal resolution (approx. 3 km) for the south of France. We also propose a matrix of different indices to evaluate the high-resolution precipitation output. We find that a higher resolution reproduces more realistic extreme precipitation events at both daily and sub-daily timescales. Our results and approach are promising to apply to other Mediterranean regions and climate impact studies.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, 2022
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Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in the climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
Tobias K. D. Weber, Joachim Ingwersen, Petra Högy, Arne Poyda, Hans-Dieter Wizemann, Michael Scott Demyan, Kristina Bohm, Ravshan Eshonkulov, Sebastian Gayler, Pascal Kremer, Moritz Laub, Yvonne Funkiun Nkwain, Christian Troost, Irene Witte, Tim Reichenau, Thomas Berger, Georg Cadisch, Torsten Müller, Andreas Fangmeier, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Thilo Streck
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1153–1181, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1153-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1153-2022, 2022
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Presented are measurement results from six agricultural fields operated by local farmers in southwestern Germany over 9 years. Six eddy-covariance stations measuring water, energy, and carbon fluxes between the vegetated soil surface and the atmosphere provided the backbone of the measurement sites and were supplemented by extensive soil and vegetation state monitoring. The dataset is ideal for testing process models characterizing fluxes at the vegetated soil surface and in the atmosphere.
Erika Médus, Emma D. Thomassen, Danijel Belušić, Petter Lind, Peter Berg, Jens H. Christensen, Ole B. Christensen, Andreas Dobler, Erik Kjellström, Jonas Olsson, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 693–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022, 2022
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We evaluate the skill of a regional climate model, HARMONIE-Climate, to capture the present-day characteristics of heavy precipitation in the Nordic region and investigate the added value provided by a convection-permitting model version. The higher model resolution improves the representation of hourly heavy- and extreme-precipitation events and their diurnal cycle. The results indicate the benefits of convection-permitting models for constructing climate change projections over the region.
Augustin Colette, Laurence Rouïl, Frédérik Meleux, Vincent Lemaire, and Blandine Raux
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1441–1465, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1441-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1441-2022, 2022
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We introduce the first toolbox that allows exploration of the benefits of air pollution mitigation scenarios in the every-day air quality forecasts through a web interface. The toolbox relies on the joint use of chemistry-transport models (CTMs) and surrogate modelling techniques.
Giannis Sofiadis, Eleni Katragkou, Edouard L. Davin, Diana Rechid, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudre, Marcus Breil, Rita M. Cardoso, Peter Hoffmann, Lisa Jach, Ronny Meier, Priscilla A. Mooney, Pedro M. M. Soares, Susanna Strada, Merja H. Tölle, and Kirsten Warrach Sagi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 595–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-595-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-595-2022, 2022
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Afforestation is currently promoted as a greenhouse gas mitigation strategy. In our study, we examine the differences in soil temperature and moisture between grounds covered either by forests or grass. The main conclusion emerged is that forest-covered grounds are cooler but drier than open lands in summer. Therefore, afforestation disrupts the seasonal cycle of soil temperature, which in turn could trigger changes in crucial chemical processes such as soil carbon sequestration.
H. E. Markus Meier, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Cyril Dutheil, Florian Börgel, Kseniia Safonova, Ole B. Christensen, and Erik Kjellström
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 159–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, 2022
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In addition to environmental pressures such as eutrophication, overfishing and contaminants, climate change is believed to have an important impact on the marine environment in the future, and marine management should consider the related risks. Hence, we have compared and assessed available scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea and found considerable uncertainties of the projections caused by the underlying assumptions and model biases, in particular for the water and biogeochemical cycles.
Lisa Jach, Thomas Schwitalla, Oliver Branch, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 109–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-109-2022, 2022
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The land surface can influence the occurrence of local rainfall through different feedback mechanisms. In Europe, this happens most frequently in summer. Here, we examine how differences in atmospheric temperature and moisture change where and how often the land surface can influence rainfall. The results show that the differences barely move the region of strong surface influence over Scandinavia and eastern Europe, but they can change the frequency of coupling events.
Ole Bøssing Christensen, Erik Kjellström, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, and Hans Eberhard Markus Meier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 133–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022, 2022
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The Baltic Sea Region is very sensitive to climate change, whose impacts could easily exacerbate biodiversity stress from society and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. Therefore, there has been a focus on estimations of future climate change and its impacts in recent research. Models show a strong warming, in particular in the north in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase in the whole region apart from the south during summer. New results improve estimates of future climate change.
Chang-Hwan Park, Aaron Berg, Michael H. Cosh, Andreas Colliander, Andreas Behrendt, Hida Manns, Jinkyu Hong, Johan Lee, Runze Zhang, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6407–6420, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6407-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6407-2021, 2021
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In this study, we proposed an inversion of the dielectric mixing model for a 50 Hz soil sensor for agricultural organic soil. This model can reflect the variability of soil organic matter (SOM) in wilting point and porosity, which play a critical role in improving the accuracy of SM estimation, using a dielectric-based soil sensor. The results of statistical analyses demonstrated a higher performance of the new model than the factory setting probe algorithm.
Jean-Eudes Petit, Jean-Charles Dupont, Olivier Favez, Valérie Gros, Yunjiang Zhang, Jean Sciare, Leila Simon, François Truong, Nicolas Bonnaire, Tanguy Amodeo, Robert Vautard, and Martial Haeffelin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17167–17183, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17167-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17167-2021, 2021
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The COVID-19 outbreak led to lockdowns at national scales in spring 2020. Large cuts in emissions occurred, but the quantitative assessment of their role from observations is hindered by weather and interannual variability. That is why we developed an innovative methodology in order to best characterize the impact of lockdown on atmospheric chemistry. We find that a local decrease in traffic-related pollutants triggered a decrease of secondary aerosols and an increase in ozone.
Roman Brogli, Silje Lund Sørland, Nico Kröner, and Christoph Schär
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1093–1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1093-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1093-2021, 2021
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In a warmer future climate, climate simulations predict that some land areas will experience excessive warming during summer. We show that the excessive summer warming is related to the vertical distribution of warming within the atmosphere. In regions characterized by excessive warming, much of the warming occurs close to the surface. In other regions, most of the warming is redistributed to higher levels in the atmosphere, which weakens the surface warming.
Daniel Regenass, Linda Schlemmer, Elena Jahr, and Christoph Schär
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-426, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-426, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Weather and climate models need to represent the water cycle on land in order to provide accurate estimates of moisture and energy exchange between the land and the atmosphere. Infiltration of water into the soil is often modeled with an equation describing water transport in porous media. Here, we point out some challenges arising in the numerical solution of this equation and show the consequences for the representation of the water cycle in modern weather and climate models.
Bjorn Stevens, Sandrine Bony, David Farrell, Felix Ament, Alan Blyth, Christopher Fairall, Johannes Karstensen, Patricia K. Quinn, Sabrina Speich, Claudia Acquistapace, Franziska Aemisegger, Anna Lea Albright, Hugo Bellenger, Eberhard Bodenschatz, Kathy-Ann Caesar, Rebecca Chewitt-Lucas, Gijs de Boer, Julien Delanoë, Leif Denby, Florian Ewald, Benjamin Fildier, Marvin Forde, Geet George, Silke Gross, Martin Hagen, Andrea Hausold, Karen J. Heywood, Lutz Hirsch, Marek Jacob, Friedhelm Jansen, Stefan Kinne, Daniel Klocke, Tobias Kölling, Heike Konow, Marie Lothon, Wiebke Mohr, Ann Kristin Naumann, Louise Nuijens, Léa Olivier, Robert Pincus, Mira Pöhlker, Gilles Reverdin, Gregory Roberts, Sabrina Schnitt, Hauke Schulz, A. Pier Siebesma, Claudia Christine Stephan, Peter Sullivan, Ludovic Touzé-Peiffer, Jessica Vial, Raphaela Vogel, Paquita Zuidema, Nicola Alexander, Lyndon Alves, Sophian Arixi, Hamish Asmath, Gholamhossein Bagheri, Katharina Baier, Adriana Bailey, Dariusz Baranowski, Alexandre Baron, Sébastien Barrau, Paul A. Barrett, Frédéric Batier, Andreas Behrendt, Arne Bendinger, Florent Beucher, Sebastien Bigorre, Edmund Blades, Peter Blossey, Olivier Bock, Steven Böing, Pierre Bosser, Denis Bourras, Pascale Bouruet-Aubertot, Keith Bower, Pierre Branellec, Hubert Branger, Michal Brennek, Alan Brewer, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Björn Brügmann, Stefan A. Buehler, Elmo Burke, Ralph Burton, Radiance Calmer, Jean-Christophe Canonici, Xavier Carton, Gregory Cato Jr., Jude Andre Charles, Patrick Chazette, Yanxu Chen, Michal T. Chilinski, Thomas Choularton, Patrick Chuang, Shamal Clarke, Hugh Coe, Céline Cornet, Pierre Coutris, Fleur Couvreux, Susanne Crewell, Timothy Cronin, Zhiqiang Cui, Yannis Cuypers, Alton Daley, Gillian M. Damerell, Thibaut Dauhut, Hartwig Deneke, Jean-Philippe Desbios, Steffen Dörner, Sebastian Donner, Vincent Douet, Kyla Drushka, Marina Dütsch, André Ehrlich, Kerry Emanuel, Alexandros Emmanouilidis, Jean-Claude Etienne, Sheryl Etienne-Leblanc, Ghislain Faure, Graham Feingold, Luca Ferrero, Andreas Fix, Cyrille Flamant, Piotr Jacek Flatau, Gregory R. Foltz, Linda Forster, Iulian Furtuna, Alan Gadian, Joseph Galewsky, Martin Gallagher, Peter Gallimore, Cassandra Gaston, Chelle Gentemann, Nicolas Geyskens, Andreas Giez, John Gollop, Isabelle Gouirand, Christophe Gourbeyre, Dörte de Graaf, Geiske E. de Groot, Robert Grosz, Johannes Güttler, Manuel Gutleben, Kashawn Hall, George Harris, Kevin C. Helfer, Dean Henze, Calvert Herbert, Bruna Holanda, Antonio Ibanez-Landeta, Janet Intrieri, Suneil Iyer, Fabrice Julien, Heike Kalesse, Jan Kazil, Alexander Kellman, Abiel T. Kidane, Ulrike Kirchner, Marcus Klingebiel, Mareike Körner, Leslie Ann Kremper, Jan Kretzschmar, Ovid Krüger, Wojciech Kumala, Armin Kurz, Pierre L'Hégaret, Matthieu Labaste, Tom Lachlan-Cope, Arlene Laing, Peter Landschützer, Theresa Lang, Diego Lange, Ingo Lange, Clément Laplace, Gauke Lavik, Rémi Laxenaire, Caroline Le Bihan, Mason Leandro, Nathalie Lefevre, Marius Lena, Donald Lenschow, Qiang Li, Gary Lloyd, Sebastian Los, Niccolò Losi, Oscar Lovell, Christopher Luneau, Przemyslaw Makuch, Szymon Malinowski, Gaston Manta, Eleni Marinou, Nicholas Marsden, Sebastien Masson, Nicolas Maury, Bernhard Mayer, Margarette Mayers-Als, Christophe Mazel, Wayne McGeary, James C. McWilliams, Mario Mech, Melina Mehlmann, Agostino Niyonkuru Meroni, Theresa Mieslinger, Andreas Minikin, Peter Minnett, Gregor Möller, Yanmichel Morfa Avalos, Caroline Muller, Ionela Musat, Anna Napoli, Almuth Neuberger, Christophe Noisel, David Noone, Freja Nordsiek, Jakub L. Nowak, Lothar Oswald, Douglas J. Parker, Carolyn Peck, Renaud Person, Miriam Philippi, Albert Plueddemann, Christopher Pöhlker, Veronika Pörtge, Ulrich Pöschl, Lawrence Pologne, Michał Posyniak, Marc Prange, Estefanía Quiñones Meléndez, Jule Radtke, Karim Ramage, Jens Reimann, Lionel Renault, Klaus Reus, Ashford Reyes, Joachim Ribbe, Maximilian Ringel, Markus Ritschel, Cesar B. Rocha, Nicolas Rochetin, Johannes Röttenbacher, Callum Rollo, Haley Royer, Pauline Sadoulet, Leo Saffin, Sanola Sandiford, Irina Sandu, Michael Schäfer, Vera Schemann, Imke Schirmacher, Oliver Schlenczek, Jerome Schmidt, Marcel Schröder, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Andrea Sealy, Christoph J. Senff, Ilya Serikov, Samkeyat Shohan, Elizabeth Siddle, Alexander Smirnov, Florian Späth, Branden Spooner, M. Katharina Stolla, Wojciech Szkółka, Simon P. de Szoeke, Stéphane Tarot, Eleni Tetoni, Elizabeth Thompson, Jim Thomson, Lorenzo Tomassini, Julien Totems, Alma Anna Ubele, Leonie Villiger, Jan von Arx, Thomas Wagner, Andi Walther, Ben Webber, Manfred Wendisch, Shanice Whitehall, Anton Wiltshire, Allison A. Wing, Martin Wirth, Jonathan Wiskandt, Kevin Wolf, Ludwig Worbes, Ethan Wright, Volker Wulfmeyer, Shanea Young, Chidong Zhang, Dongxiao Zhang, Florian Ziemen, Tobias Zinner, and Martin Zöger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4067–4119, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, 2021
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The EUREC4A field campaign, designed to test hypothesized mechanisms by which clouds respond to warming and benchmark next-generation Earth-system models, is presented. EUREC4A comprised roughly 5 weeks of measurements in the downstream winter trades of the North Atlantic – eastward and southeastward of Barbados. It was the first campaign that attempted to characterize the full range of processes and scales influencing trade wind clouds.
Ruth Mottram, Nicolaj Hansen, Christoph Kittel, J. Melchior van Wessem, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Fredrik Boberg, Willem Jan van de Berg, Xavier Fettweis, Alexandra Gossart, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Orr, Tony Phillips, Stuart Webster, Sebastian B. Simonsen, and Niels Souverijns
The Cryosphere, 15, 3751–3784, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, 2021
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We compare the calculated surface mass budget (SMB) of Antarctica in five different regional climate models. On average ~ 2000 Gt of snow accumulates annually, but different models vary by ~ 10 %, a difference equivalent to ± 0.5 mm of global sea level rise. All models reproduce observed weather, but there are large differences in regional patterns of snowfall, especially in areas with very few observations, giving greater uncertainty in Antarctic mass budget than previously identified.
Silje Lund Sørland, Roman Brogli, Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Emmanuele Russo, Jonas Van de Walle, Bodo Ahrens, Ivonne Anders, Edoardo Bucchignani, Edouard L. Davin, Marie-Estelle Demory, Alessandro Dosio, Hendrik Feldmann, Barbara Früh, Beate Geyer, Klaus Keuler, Donghyun Lee, Delei Li, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Seung-Ki Min, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Burkhardt Rockel, Christoph Schär, Christian Steger, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5125–5154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, 2021
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We review the contribution from the CLM-Community to regional climate projections following the CORDEX framework over Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. How the model configuration, horizontal and vertical resolutions, and choice of driving data influence the model results for the five domains is assessed, with the purpose of aiding the planning and design of regional climate simulations in the future.
Julien Beaumet, Michel Déqué, Gerhard Krinner, Cécile Agosta, Antoinette Alias, and Vincent Favier
The Cryosphere, 15, 3615–3635, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021, 2021
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We use empirical run-time bias correction (also called flux correction) to correct the systematic errors of the ARPEGE atmospheric climate model. When applying the method to future climate projections, we found a lesser poleward shift and an intensification of the maximum of westerly winds present in the southern high latitudes. This yields a significant additional warming of +0.6 to +0.9 K of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with respect to non-corrected control projections using the RCP8.5 scenario.
Christian Zeman, Nils P. Wedi, Peter D. Dueben, Nikolina Ban, and Christoph Schär
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4617–4639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4617-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4617-2021, 2021
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Kilometer-scale atmospheric models allow us to partially resolve thunderstorms and thus improve their representation. We present an intercomparison between two distinct atmospheric models for 2 summer days with heavy thunderstorms over Europe. We show the dependence of precipitation and vertical wind speed on spatial and temporal resolution and also discuss the possible influence of the system of equations, numerical methods, and diffusion in the models.
Jean-Philippe Putaud, Luca Pozzoli, Enrico Pisoni, Sebastiao Martins Dos Santos, Friedrich Lagler, Guido Lanzani, Umberto Dal Santo, and Augustin Colette
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7597–7609, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7597-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7597-2021, 2021
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To determine the impact of the COVID lockdown on air quality in northern Italy, measurements of atmospheric pollutants (NO2, PM10, O3, NO, SO2 ) were compared to the output of a model ignoring the lockdown. We found that NO2 decreased on average by −30 % to −40 %. Unlike NO2, PM10 was not significantly affected due to the compensation of decreased emissions from traffic by increased emissions from domestic heating and/or by changes in atmospheric chemistry enhancing secondary aerosol formation.
Jérôme Barré, Hervé Petetin, Augustin Colette, Marc Guevara, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Laurence Rouil, Richard Engelen, Antje Inness, Johannes Flemming, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Dene Bowdalo, Frederik Meleux, Camilla Geels, Jesper H. Christensen, Michael Gauss, Anna Benedictow, Svetlana Tsyro, Elmar Friese, Joanna Struzewska, Jacek W. Kaminski, John Douros, Renske Timmermans, Lennart Robertson, Mario Adani, Oriol Jorba, Mathieu Joly, and Rostislav Kouznetsov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7373–7394, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7373-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7373-2021, 2021
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This study provides a comprehensive assessment of air quality changes across the main European urban areas induced by the COVID-19 lockdown using satellite observations, surface site measurements, and the forecasting system from the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). We demonstrate the importance of accounting for weather and seasonal variability when calculating such estimates.
Kevin Sieck, Christine Nam, Laurens M. Bouwer, Diana Rechid, and Daniela Jacob
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 457–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-457-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-457-2021, 2021
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This paper presents new estimates of future extreme weather in Europe, including extreme heat, extreme rainfall and meteorological drought. These new estimates were achieved by repeating model calculations many times, thereby reducing uncertainties of these rare events at low levels of global warming at 1.5 and 2 °C above
pre-industrial temperature levels. These results are important, as they help to assess which weather extremes could increase at moderate warming levels and where.
Thomas Schwitalla, Hans-Stefan Bauer, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, Thomas Bönisch, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4575–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4575-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4575-2021, 2021
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A prototype of an air quality forecasting system (AQFS) on a turbulence-permitting (TP) horizontal resolution of 50 m is developed. AQFS is based on the WRF-Chem model and uses high-resolution emission data from different pollution sources. A simulation case study of a typical winter day in south Germany serves as a test bed. Results indicate that the complex topography plays an important role for the horizontal and vertical pollution distribution over the Stuttgart metropolitan area.
Oliver Branch, Thomas Schwitalla, Marouane Temimi, Ricardo Fonseca, Narendra Nelli, Michael Weston, Josipa Milovac, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1615–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1615-2021, 2021
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Effective numerical weather forecasting is vital in arid regions like the United Arab Emirates where extreme events like heat waves, flash floods, and dust storms are becoming more severe. This study employs a high-resolution simulation with the WRF-NOAHMP model, and the output is compared with seasonal observation data from 50 weather stations. This type of verification is vital to identify model deficiencies and improve forecasting systems for arid regions.
Michael Matiu, Alice Crespi, Giacomo Bertoldi, Carlo Maria Carmagnola, Christoph Marty, Samuel Morin, Wolfgang Schöner, Daniele Cat Berro, Gabriele Chiogna, Ludovica De Gregorio, Sven Kotlarski, Bruno Majone, Gernot Resch, Silvia Terzago, Mauro Valt, Walter Beozzo, Paola Cianfarra, Isabelle Gouttevin, Giorgia Marcolini, Claudia Notarnicola, Marcello Petitta, Simon C. Scherrer, Ulrich Strasser, Michael Winkler, Marc Zebisch, Andrea Cicogna, Roberto Cremonini, Andrea Debernardi, Mattia Faletto, Mauro Gaddo, Lorenzo Giovannini, Luca Mercalli, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Andrea Sušnik, Alberto Trenti, Stefano Urbani, and Viktor Weilguni
The Cryosphere, 15, 1343–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1343-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1343-2021, 2021
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The first Alpine-wide assessment of station snow depth has been enabled by a collaborative effort of the research community which involves more than 30 partners, 6 countries, and more than 2000 stations. It shows how snow in the European Alps matches the climatic zones and gives a robust estimate of observed changes: stronger decreases in the snow season at low elevations and in spring at all elevations, however, with considerable regional differences.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Folmer Krikken, Sophie Lewis, Nicholas J. Leach, Flavio Lehner, Kate R. Saunders, Michiel van Weele, Karsten Haustein, Sihan Li, David Wallom, Sarah Sparrow, Julie Arrighi, Roop K. Singh, Maarten K. van Aalst, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Robert Vautard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 941–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, 2021
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Southeastern Australia suffered from disastrous bushfires during the 2019/20 fire season, raising the question whether these have become more likely due to climate change. We found no attributable trend in extreme annual or monthly low precipitation but a clear shift towards more extreme heat. However, this shift is underestimated by the models. Analysing fire weather directly, we found that the chance has increased by at least 30 %, but due to the underestimation it could well be higher.
Susannah Rennie, Klaus Goergen, Christoph Wohner, Sander Apweiler, Johannes Peterseil, and John Watkins
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 631–644, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-631-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-631-2021, 2021
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This paper describes a pan-European climate service data product intended for ecological researchers. Access to regional climate scenario data will save ecologists time, and, for many, it will allow them to work with data resources that they will not previously have used due to a lack of knowledge and skills to access them. Providing easy access to climate scenario data in this way enhances long-term ecological research, for example in general regional climate change or impact assessments.
Trang Van Pham, Christian Steger, Burkhardt Rockel, Klaus Keuler, Ingo Kirchner, Mariano Mertens, Daniel Rieger, Günther Zängl, and Barbara Früh
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 985–1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-985-2021, 2021
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A new regional climate model was prepared based on a weather forecast model. Slow processes of the climate system such as ocean state development and greenhouse gas emissions were implemented. A model infrastructure and evaluation tools were also prepared to facilitate long-term simulations and model evalution. The first ICON-CLM results were close to observations and comparable to those from COSMO-CLM, the recommended model being used at the Deutscher Wetterdienst and CLM Community.
Torben Schmith, Peter Thejll, Peter Berg, Fredrik Boberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Bo Christiansen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Marianne Sloth Madsen, and Christian Steger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 273–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-273-2021, 2021
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European extreme precipitation is expected to change in the future; this is based on climate model projections. But, since climate models have errors, projections are uncertain. We study this uncertainty in the projections by comparing results from an ensemble of 19 climate models. Results can be used to give improved estimates of future extreme precipitation for Europe.
Carley E. Iles, Robert Vautard, Jane Strachan, Sylvie Joussaume, Bernd R. Eggen, and Chris D. Hewitt
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5583–5607, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5583-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5583-2020, 2020
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We investigate how increased resolution affects the simulation of European climate extremes for global and regional climate models to inform modelling strategies. Precipitation extremes become heavier with higher resolution, especially over mountains, wind extremes become somewhat stronger, and for temperature extremes warm biases are reduced over mountains. Differences with resolution for the global model appear to come from downscaling effects rather than improved large-scale circulation.
Marie-Estelle Demory, Ségolène Berthou, Jesús Fernández, Silje L. Sørland, Roman Brogli, Malcolm J. Roberts, Urs Beyerle, Jon Seddon, Rein Haarsma, Christoph Schär, Erasmo Buonomo, Ole B. Christensen, James M. Ciarlo ̀, Rowan Fealy, Grigory Nikulin, Daniele Peano, Dian Putrasahan, Christopher D. Roberts, Retish Senan, Christian Steger, Claas Teichmann, and Robert Vautard
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5485–5506, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5485-2020, 2020
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Now that global climate models (GCMs) can run at similar resolutions to regional climate models (RCMs), one may wonder whether GCMs and RCMs provide similar regional climate information. We perform an evaluation for daily precipitation distribution in PRIMAVERA GCMs (25–50 km resolution) and CORDEX RCMs (12–50 km resolution) over Europe. We show that PRIMAVERA and CORDEX simulate similar distributions. Considering both datasets at such a resolution results in large benefits for impact studies.
Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike Otto, Robert Vautard, Karin van der Wiel, Andrew King, Fraser Lott, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, and Maarten van Aalst
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 177–203, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020, 2020
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Event attribution studies can now be performed at short notice. We document a protocol developed by the World Weather Attribution group. It includes choices of which events to analyse, the event definition, observational analysis, model evaluation, multi-model multi-method attribution, hazard synthesis, vulnerability and exposure analysis, and communication procedures. The protocol will be useful for future event attribution studies and as a basis for an operational attribution service.
Stefan Rüdisühli, Michael Sprenger, David Leutwyler, Christoph Schär, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 675–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-675-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-675-2020, 2020
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Most precipitation over Europe is linked to low-pressure systems, cold fronts, warm fronts, or high-pressure systems. Based on a massive computer simulation able to resolve thunderstorms, we quantify in detail how much precipitation these weather systems produced during 2000–2008. We find distinct seasonal and regional differences, such as fronts precipitating a lot in fall and winter over the North Atlantic but high-pressure systems mostly in summer over the continent by way of thunderstorms.
Fabian Willibald, Sven Kotlarski, Adrienne Grêt-Regamey, and Ralf Ludwig
The Cryosphere, 14, 2909–2924, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2909-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2909-2020, 2020
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Climate change will significantly reduce snow cover, but the extent remains disputed. We use regional climate model data as a driver for a snow model to investigate the impacts of climate change and climate variability on snow. We show that natural climate variability is a dominant source of uncertainty in future snow trends. We show that anthropogenic climate change will change the interannual variability of snow. Those factors will increase the vulnerabilities of snow-dependent economies.
Andreas Behrendt, Volker Wulfmeyer, Christoph Senff, Shravan Kumar Muppa, Florian Späth, Diego Lange, Norbert Kalthoff, and Andreas Wieser
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 3221–3233, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-3221-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-3221-2020, 2020
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In order to understand how solar radiation energy hitting the ground is distributed into the atmosphere, we use a new combination of laser-based remote-sensing techniques to quantify these energy fluxes up to heights of more than 1 km above ground. Before, similar techniques had already been presented for determining the energy flux component regarding the exchange of humidity but not the warm air itself. Now, we show that this can also be measured by remote sensing with low uncertainties.
Willem Jan van de Berg, Erik van Meijgaard, and Lambertus H. van Ulft
The Cryosphere, 14, 1809–1827, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1809-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1809-2020, 2020
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In times of increasing computer power, atmospheric models that estimate the surface mass balance of the Greenland can be run with increasing resolution. However, at which resolution is the error no longer determined by the lacking resolution but by model shortcomings? In this manuscript we show that for the majority of the southern part of the Greenland Ice Sheet, our study area, a model resolution of 20 km is sufficient although finer model resolutions are still beneficial.
Minchao Wu, Grigory Nikulin, Erik Kjellström, Danijel Belušić, Colin Jones, and David Lindstedt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 377–394, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-377-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-377-2020, 2020
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Regional Climate Models constitute a downscaling tool to provide high-resolution data for impact and adaptation studies. However, there is no unique definition of the added value of downscaling as it depends on many factors. We investigate the impact of spatial resolution and model formulation on downscaled rainfall in Africa. Our results show that improvements in downscaled rainfall compared to the driving reanalysis are often related to model formulation and not always to higher resolution.
Thomas Schwitalla, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Michael Resch
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1959–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1959-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1959-2020, 2020
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Performing seasonal simulations on horizontal grid resolutions of a few kilometres over the entire globe remains challenging. We demonstrate the added value of simulating large-scale patterns and feedbacks at 3 km resolution compared to a coarser-resolution forecast using the WRF numerical weather model on a latitude-belt domain. Results show an improvement of cloud coverage in the tropics, better representation of teleconnection, and improvements of precipitation patterns in different regions.
Bettina Steuri, Tanja Blome, Katharina Bülow, Juliane El Zohbi, Peter Hoffmann, Juliane Petersen, Susanne Pfeifer, Diana Rechid, and Daniela Jacob
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 9–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-9-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-9-2020, 2020
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The goal of an interdisciplinary team of scientists at the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) was to make the findings of the special report IPCC SR1.5 more accessible to the citizens of Hamburg. Therefore, a flyer was created that is understandable to non-climate scientists, visually attractive and generates interest.
In this article, the authors provide insights into their teamwork, the underlying guiding principles as well as lessons learned that are of great value for future projects.
Danijel Belušić, Hylke de Vries, Andreas Dobler, Oskar Landgren, Petter Lind, David Lindstedt, Rasmus A. Pedersen, Juan Carlos Sánchez-Perrino, Erika Toivonen, Bert van Ulft, Fuxing Wang, Ulf Andrae, Yurii Batrak, Erik Kjellström, Geert Lenderink, Grigory Nikulin, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Ernesto Rodríguez-Camino, Patrick Samuelsson, Erik van Meijgaard, and Minchao Wu
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1311–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020, 2020
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A new regional climate modelling system, HCLIM38, is presented and shown to be applicable in different regions ranging from the tropics to the Arctic. The main focus is on climate simulations at horizontal resolutions between 1 and 4 km, the so-called convection-permitting scales, even though the model can also be used at coarser resolutions. The benefits of simulating climate at convection-permitting scales are shown and are particularly evident for climate extremes.
Edouard L. Davin, Diana Rechid, Marcus Breil, Rita M. Cardoso, Erika Coppola, Peter Hoffmann, Lisa L. Jach, Eleni Katragkou, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Kai Radtke, Mario Raffa, Pedro M. M. Soares, Giannis Sofiadis, Susanna Strada, Gustav Strandberg, Merja H. Tölle, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 183–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-183-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-183-2020, 2020
Marco Pandolfi, Dennis Mooibroek, Philip Hopke, Dominik van Pinxteren, Xavier Querol, Hartmut Herrmann, Andrés Alastuey, Olivier Favez, Christoph Hüglin, Esperanza Perdrix, Véronique Riffault, Stéphane Sauvage, Eric van der Swaluw, Oksana Tarasova, and Augustin Colette
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 409–429, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-409-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-409-2020, 2020
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In the last scientific assessment report from the LRTAP Convention, it is stated that because non-urban sources are often major contributors to urban pollution, many cities will be unable to meet WHO guideline levels for air pollutants through local action alone. Consequently, it is very important to estimate how much the local and non-local sources contribute to urban pollution in order to design global strategies to reduce the levels of pollutants in European cities.
Giancarlo Ciarelli, Mark R. Theobald, Marta G. Vivanco, Matthias Beekmann, Wenche Aas, Camilla Andersson, Robert Bergström, Astrid Manders-Groot, Florian Couvidat, Mihaela Mircea, Svetlana Tsyro, Hilde Fagerli, Kathleen Mar, Valentin Raffort, Yelva Roustan, Maria-Teresa Pay, Martijn Schaap, Richard Kranenburg, Mario Adani, Gino Briganti, Andrea Cappelletti, Massimo D'Isidoro, Cornelis Cuvelier, Arineh Cholakian, Bertrand Bessagnet, Peter Wind, and Augustin Colette
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4923–4954, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4923-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4923-2019, 2019
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The novel multi-model EURODELTA-Trends exercise provided 21 years of continuous PM components and their gas-phase precursor concentrations over Europe from the year 1990. The models’ capabilities to reproduce PM components and gas-phase PM precursor trends over the 1990–2010 period is the key focus of this study. The models were able to reproduce the observed trends relatively well, indicating a possible shift in the thermodynamic equilibrium between gas and particle phases.
Julien Beaumet, Michel Déqué, Gerhard Krinner, Cécile Agosta, and Antoinette Alias
The Cryosphere, 13, 3023–3043, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019, 2019
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The atmospheric model ARPEGE is used with a stretched grid in order to reach an average horizontal resolution of 35 km over Antarctica. Over 1981–2010, we forced the model with observed and modelled sea surface conditions (SSCs). For the late 21st century, we use original and bias-corrected sea surface conditions from RCP8.5 climate projections. We assess the impact of using direct or bias-corrected SSCs for the evolution of Antarctic climate and surface mass balance.
Katharina Bülow, Heike Huebener, Klaus Keuler, Christoph Menz, Susanne Pfeifer, Hans Ramthun, Arne Spekat, Christian Steger, Claas Teichmann, and Kirsten Warrach-Sagi
Adv. Sci. Res., 16, 241–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-241-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-241-2019, 2019
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In the German regional climate modeling project ReKliEs-De changes in temperature and precipitation indices are calculated from a multi model ensemble for the end of the 21st century. The results for the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are compared to the results of the “business as usual” scenario RCP8.5. The increase of mean annual temperature and of the number of summer days will be around 3 times higher and in summer, the increase of dry days could be twice as high in RCP8.5 compared to RCP2.6.
Arineh Cholakian, Matthias Beekmann, Isabelle Coll, Giancarlo Ciarelli, and Augustin Colette
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13209–13226, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13209-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13209-2019, 2019
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Organic aerosol simulation schemes were tested in climatic runs to assess their climate sensitivity. The test for each scheme contains five historic and five future years of simulation. Validation was performed for the three schemes to assess their performance compared to measured data. Results show that the scheme taking into account fragmentation and formation of nonvolatile secondary organic aerosol (SOA) shows higher relative biogenic SOA (BSOA) changes than historic and future scenarios.
Inne Vanderkelen, Jakob Zschleischler, Lukas Gudmundsson, Klaus Keuler, Francois Rineau, Natalie Beenaerts, Jaco Vangronsveld, and Wim Thiery
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-267, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-267, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Ana Casanueva, Sven Kotlarski, Sixto Herrera, Andreas M. Fischer, Tord Kjellstrom, and Cornelia Schwierz
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3419–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3419-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3419-2019, 2019
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Given the large number of available data sets and products currently produced for climate impact studies, it is challenging to distil the most accurate and useful information for climate services. This work presents a comparison of methods widely used to generate climate projections, from different sources and at different spatial resolutions, in order to assess the role of downscaling and statistical post-processing (bias correction).
Youssef Wehbe, Marouane Temimi, Michael Weston, Naira Chaouch, Oliver Branch, Thomas Schwitalla, Volker Wulfmeyer, Xiwu Zhan, Jicheng Liu, and Abdulla Al Mandous
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1129–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1129-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1129-2019, 2019
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The work addresses the need for reliable precipitation forecasts in hyper-arid environments through state-of-the-art hydro-meteorological modeling. Accounting for land–atmosphere interactions in the applied model is shown to improve the accuracy of precipitation output. The chain of events controlling the soil moisture–precipitation feedback are diagnosed and verified by in situ observations and satellite data.
Peter Berg, Ole B. Christensen, Katharina Klehmet, Geert Lenderink, Jonas Olsson, Claas Teichmann, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 957–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-957-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-957-2019, 2019
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A state-of-the-art regional climate model ensemble for Europe is investigated for extreme precipitation intensities. The models poorly reproduce short duration events of less than a few hours. Further, there is poor connection to some known hotspots for extreme cases. The model performance is much improved at 12 h durations. Projected future increases scale with seasonal mean temperature change, within a range from a few percent to over 10 percent per degree Celsius.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Pascal Yiou, Hylke de Vries, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Stepek, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Cecilia Costella, Roop Singh, and Claudia Tebaldi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 271–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, 2019
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The effect of human activities on the probability of winter wind storms like the ones that occurred in Western Europe in January 2018 is analysed using multiple model ensembles. Despite a significant probability decline in observations, we find no significant change in probabilities due to human influence on climate so far. However, such extreme events are likely to be slightly more frequent in the future. The observed decrease in storminess is likely to be due to increasing roughness.
Arineh Cholakian, Augustin Colette, Isabelle Coll, Giancarlo Ciarelli, and Matthias Beekmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 4459–4484, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4459-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4459-2019, 2019
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Multiple future scenario sets have been compared to reference simulations in order to assess the effects of different climate change drivers (regional climate, anthropogenic emissions, long-range transport) on the concentration of PM10 and its components. The effect of different meteorological parameters has been explored on the concentration of PM components in the case of changes due to regional climate. A cumulative impact study on the three aforementioned drivers has also been included.
Maik Renner, Claire Brenner, Kaniska Mallick, Hans-Dieter Wizemann, Luigi Conte, Ivonne Trebs, Jianhui Wei, Volker Wulfmeyer, Karsten Schulz, and Axel Kleidon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 515–535, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-515-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-515-2019, 2019
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We estimate the phase lag of surface states and heat fluxes to incoming solar radiation at the sub-daily timescale. While evapotranspiration reveals a minor phase lag, the vapor pressure deficit used as input by Penman–Monteith approaches shows a large phase lag. The surface-to-air temperature gradient used by energy balance residual approaches shows a small phase shift in agreement with the sensible heat flux and thus explains the better correlation of these models at the sub-daily timescale.
Samuel Monhart, Massimiliano Zappa, Christoph Spirig, Christoph Schär, and Konrad Bogner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 493–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-493-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-493-2019, 2019
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Subseasonal streamflow forecasts have received increasing attention during the past decade, but their performance in alpine catchments is still largely unknown. We analyse the effect of a statistical correction technique applied to the driving meteorological forecasts on the performance of the resulting streamflow forecasts. The study shows the benefits of such hydrometeorological ensemble prediction systems and highlights the importance of snow-related processes for subseasonal predictions.
Julien Beaumet, Gerhard Krinner, Michel Déqué, Rein Haarsma, and Laurent Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 321–342, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-321-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-321-2019, 2019
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Oceanic surface conditions coming from coupled ocean–atmosphere global climate models bear considerable biases over the historical climate. We review and present new methods for bias correcting sea surface temperatures and sea-ice concentration coming from such models in order to use them as boundary conditions for atmospheric-only GCMs. For sea ice, we propose a new analogue method which allows us to reproduce more physically consistent future bias-corrected sea-ice concentration maps.
Bibi S. Naz, Wolfgang Kurtz, Carsten Montzka, Wendy Sharples, Klaus Goergen, Jessica Keune, Huilin Gao, Anne Springer, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, and Stefan Kollet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 277–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-277-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-277-2019, 2019
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This study investigates the value of assimilating coarse-resolution remotely sensed soil moisture data into high-resolution land surface models for improving soil moisture and runoff modeling. The soil moisture estimates in this study, with complete spatio-temporal coverage and improved spatial resolution from the assimilation, offer a new reanalysis product for the monitoring of surface soil water content and other hydrological fluxes at 3 km resolution over Europe.
Mark R. Theobald, Marta G. Vivanco, Wenche Aas, Camilla Andersson, Giancarlo Ciarelli, Florian Couvidat, Kees Cuvelier, Astrid Manders, Mihaela Mircea, Maria-Teresa Pay, Svetlana Tsyro, Mario Adani, Robert Bergström, Bertrand Bessagnet, Gino Briganti, Andrea Cappelletti, Massimo D'Isidoro, Hilde Fagerli, Kathleen Mar, Noelia Otero, Valentin Raffort, Yelva Roustan, Martijn Schaap, Peter Wind, and Augustin Colette
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 379–405, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-379-2019, 2019
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Model estimates of the mean European wet deposition of nitrogen and sulfur for 1990 to 2010 were within 40 % of the observed values. As a result of systematic biases, the models were better at estimating relative trends for the periods 1990–2000 and 2000–2010 than the absolute trends. Although the predominantly decreasing trends were mostly due to emission reductions, they were partially offset by other factors (e.g. changes in precipitation) during the first period, but not the second.
Gabriele Curci, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Rocio Barò, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Jesper H. Christensen, Augustin Colette, Aidan Farrow, Xavier Francis, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Ulas Im, Peng Liu, Astrid Manders, Laura Palacios-Peña, Marje Prank, Luca Pozzoli, Ranjeet Sokhi, Efisio Solazzo, Paolo Tuccella, Alper Unal, Marta G. Vivanco, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 181–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-181-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-181-2019, 2019
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Atmospheric carbonaceous aerosols are able to absorb solar radiation and they continue to contribute some of the largest uncertainties in projected climate change. One important detail is how the chemical species are arranged inside each particle, i.e. the knowledge of their mixing state. We use an ensemble of regional model simulations to test different mixing state assumptions and found that a combination of internal and external mixing may better reproduce sunphotometer observations.
Noelia Otero, Jana Sillmann, Kathleen A. Mar, Henning W. Rust, Sverre Solberg, Camilla Andersson, Magnuz Engardt, Robert Bergström, Bertrand Bessagnet, Augustin Colette, Florian Couvidat, Cournelius Cuvelier, Svetlana Tsyro, Hilde Fagerli, Martijn Schaap, Astrid Manders, Mihaela Mircea, Gino Briganti, Andrea Cappelletti, Mario Adani, Massimo D'Isidoro, María-Teresa Pay, Mark Theobald, Marta G. Vivanco, Peter Wind, Narendra Ojha, Valentin Raffort, and Tim Butler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12269–12288, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12269-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12269-2018, 2018
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This paper evaluates the capability of air-quality models to capture the observed relationship between surface ozone concentrations and meteorology over Europe. The air-quality models tended to overestimate the influence of maximum temperature and surface solar radiation. None of the air-quality models captured the strength of the observed relationship between ozone and relative humidity appropriately, underestimating the effect of relative humidity, a key factor in the ozone removal processes.
Stefan Brönnimann, Jan Rajczak, Erich M. Fischer, Christoph C. Raible, Marco Rohrer, and Christoph Schär
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2047–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, 2018
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Heavy precipitation events in Switzerland are expected to become more intense, but the seasonality also changes. Analysing a large set of model simulations, we find that annual maximum rainfall events become less frequent in late summer and more frequent in early summer and early autumn. The seasonality shift is arguably related to summer drying. Results suggest that changes in the seasonal cycle need to be accounted for when preparing for moderately extreme precipitation events.
Marta G. Vivanco, Mark R. Theobald, Héctor García-Gómez, Juan Luis Garrido, Marje Prank, Wenche Aas, Mario Adani, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Camilla Andersson, Roberto Bellasio, Bertrand Bessagnet, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Jørgen Brandt, Gino Briganti, Andrea Cappelletti, Gabriele Curci, Jesper H. Christensen, Augustin Colette, Florian Couvidat, Cornelis Cuvelier, Massimo D'Isidoro, Johannes Flemming, Andrea Fraser, Camilla Geels, Kaj M. Hansen, Christian Hogrefe, Ulas Im, Oriol Jorba, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Astrid Manders, Mihaela Mircea, Noelia Otero, Maria-Teresa Pay, Luca Pozzoli, Efisio Solazzo, Svetlana Tsyro, Alper Unal, Peter Wind, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10199–10218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10199-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10199-2018, 2018
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European wet and dry atmospheric deposition of N and S estimated by 14 air quality models was found to vary substantially. An ensemble of models meeting acceptability criteria was used to estimate the exceedances of the critical loads for N in habitats within the Natura 2000 network, as well as their lower and upper limits. Scenarios with 20 % emission reductions in different regions of the world showed that European emissions are responsible for most of the N and S deposition in Europe.
Wendy Sharples, Ilya Zhukov, Markus Geimer, Klaus Goergen, Sebastian Luehrs, Thomas Breuer, Bibi Naz, Ketan Kulkarni, Slavko Brdar, and Stefan Kollet
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2875–2895, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2875-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2875-2018, 2018
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Next-generation geoscientific models are based on complex model implementations and workflows. Next-generation HPC systems require new programming paradigms and code optimization. In order to meet the challenge of running complex simulations on new massively parallel HPC systems, we developed a run control framework that facilitates code portability, code profiling, and provenance tracking to reduce both the duration and the cost of code migration and development, while ensuring reproducibility.
Ulas Im, Jesper Heile Christensen, Camilla Geels, Kaj Mantzius Hansen, Jørgen Brandt, Efisio Solazzo, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocio Baro, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Augustin Colette, Gabriele Curci, Aidan Farrow, Johannes Flemming, Andrea Fraser, Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Peng Liu, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Laura Palacios-Peña, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marje Prank, Rebecca Rose, Ranjeet Sokhi, Paolo Tuccella, Alper Unal, Marta G. Vivanco, Greg Yarwood, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8929–8952, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8929-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8929-2018, 2018
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We evaluate the impact of global and regional anthropogenic emission reductions on major air pollutant levels over Europe and North America, using a multi-model ensemble of regional chemistry and transport models. Results show that ozone levels are largely driven by long-range transport over both continents while other pollutants such as carbon monoxide or aerosols are mainly controlled by domestic sources. Use of multi-model ensembles can help to reduce the uncertainties in individual models.
Takuya Kawabata, Thomas Schwitalla, Ahoro Adachi, Hans-Stefan Bauer, Volker Wulfmeyer, Nobuhiro Nagumo, and Hiroshi Yamauchi
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2493–2501, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2493-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2493-2018, 2018
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We implemented two observational operators for dual polarimetric radars in two variational data assimilation systems: WRF Var and NHM-4DVAR. The operators consist of a space interpolator and two types of variable converters. The first variable converter emulates polarimetric parameters with model prognostic variables, and the second derives rainwater content from the observed polarimetric parameter. The system worked properly in verification and assimilation tests.
Stefano Galmarini, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Efisio Solazzo, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Roberto Bellasio, Anna M. K. Benedictow, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Joergen Brandt, Jesper H. Christensen, Augustin Colette, Gabriele Curci, Yanko Davila, Xinyi Dong, Johannes Flemming, Xavier Francis, Andrea Fraser, Joshua Fu, Daven K. Henze, Christian Hogrefe, Ulas Im, Marta Garcia Vivanco, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Jan Eiof Jonson, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Astrid Manders, Rohit Mathur, Laura Palacios-Peña, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marie Prank, Martin Schultz, Rajeet S. Sokhi, Kengo Sudo, Paolo Tuccella, Toshihiko Takemura, Takashi Sekiya, and Alper Unal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8727–8744, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8727-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8727-2018, 2018
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An ensemble of model results relating to ozone concentrations in Europe in 2010 has been produced and studied. The novelty consists in the fact that the ensemble is made of results of models working at two different scales (regional and global), therefore contributing in detail two different parts of the atmospheric spectrum. The ensemble defined as a hybrid has been studied in detail and shown to bring additional value to the assessment of air quality.
Arineh Cholakian, Matthias Beekmann, Augustin Colette, Isabelle Coll, Guillaume Siour, Jean Sciare, Nicolas Marchand, Florian Couvidat, Jorge Pey, Valerie Gros, Stéphane Sauvage, Vincent Michoud, Karine Sellegri, Aurélie Colomb, Karine Sartelet, Helen Langley DeWitt, Miriam Elser, André S. H. Prévot, Sonke Szidat, and François Dulac
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7287–7312, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7287-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7287-2018, 2018
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In this work, four schemes for the simulation of organic aerosols in the western Mediterranean basin are added to the CHIMERE chemistry–transport model; the resulting simulations are then compared to measurements obtained from ChArMEx. It is concluded that the scheme taking into account the fragmentation and the formation of nonvolatile organic aerosols corresponds better to measurements; the major source of this aerosol in the western Mediterranean is found to be of biogenic origin.
Erik Kjellström, Grigory Nikulin, Gustav Strandberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Daniela Jacob, Klaus Keuler, Geert Lenderink, Erik van Meijgaard, Christoph Schär, Samuel Somot, Silje Lund Sørland, Claas Teichmann, and Robert Vautard
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 459–478, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-459-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-459-2018, 2018
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Based on high-resolution regional climate models we investigate European climate change at 1.5 and 2 °C of global warming compared to pre-industrial levels. Considerable near-surface warming exceeding that of the global mean is found for most of Europe, already at the lower 1.5 °C of warming level. Changes in precipitation and near-surface wind speed are identified. The 1.5 °C of warming level shows significantly less change compared to the 2 °C level, indicating the importance of mitigation.
Ulas Im, Jørgen Brandt, Camilla Geels, Kaj Mantzius Hansen, Jesper Heile Christensen, Mikael Skou Andersen, Efisio Solazzo, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocio Baro, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Augustin Colette, Gabriele Curci, Aidan Farrow, Johannes Flemming, Andrea Fraser, Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Ciao-Kai Liang, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marje Prank, Rebecca Rose, Ranjeet Sokhi, Paolo Tuccella, Alper Unal, Marta Garcia Vivanco, Jason West, Greg Yarwood, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5967–5989, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5967-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5967-2018, 2018
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The impacts of air pollution on human health and their costs in Europe and the United States for the year 2010 ared modeled by a multi-model ensemble. In Europe, the number of premature deaths is calculated to be 414 000, while in the US it is estimated to be 160 000. Health impacts estimated by individual models can vary up to a factor of 3. Results show that the domestic emissions have the largest impact on premature deaths, compared to foreign sources.
Jan Melchior van Wessem, Willem Jan van de Berg, Brice P. Y. Noël, Erik van Meijgaard, Charles Amory, Gerit Birnbaum, Constantijn L. Jakobs, Konstantin Krüger, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Stef Lhermitte, Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, Brooke Medley, Carleen H. Reijmer, Kristof van Tricht, Luke D. Trusel, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Bert Wouters, Jan Wuite, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 1479–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, 2018
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We present a detailed evaluation of the latest version of the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2.3p2 (1979-2016) over the Antarctic ice sheet. The model successfully reproduces the present-day climate and surface mass balance (SMB) when compared with an extensive set of observations and improves on previous estimates of the Antarctic climate and SMB.
This study shows that the latest version of RACMO2 can be used for high-resolution future projections over the AIS.
Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Tiina Markkanen, Kevin Sieck, Daniela Jacob, Johanna Korhonen, Petri Räisänen, Yao Gao, Jaakko Ahola, Hannele Korhonen, Ari Laaksonen, and Jussi Kaurola
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1321–1342, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1321-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1321-2018, 2018
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The regional climate model REMO was coupled with the FLake lake model to include an interactive treatment of lakes. Using this new version, the Fenno-Scandinavian climate and lake characteristics were studied. Our results show that overall the new model version improves the representation of the Fenno-Scandinavian climate in terms of 2 m temperature and precipitation and that the model can reproduce surface water temperature, ice depth and ice season length with reasonably high accuracy.
Deborah Verfaillie, Matthieu Lafaysse, Michel Déqué, Nicolas Eckert, Yves Lejeune, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 12, 1249–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018, 2018
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This article addresses local changes of seasonal snow and its meteorological drivers, at 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range in the Northern French Alps, for the period 1960–2100. We use an ensemble of adjusted RCM outputs consistent with IPCC AR5 GCM outputs (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) and the snowpack model Crocus. Beyond scenario-based approach, global temperature levels on the order of 1.5 °C and 2 °C above preindustrial levels correspond to 25 and 32% reduction of mean snow depth.
Didin Agustian Permadi, Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh, and Robert Vautard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3321–3334, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3321-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3321-2018, 2018
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This research quantified impacts resulted in the future (2030) from emission reduction measures for Southeast Asia (SEA) countries. Emission scenarios were developed based on current policies in Indonesia and Thailand. Impacts were quantified in terms of the avoided number of premature death and reduction in radiative forcing resulted from the emission reduction measures.
Didin Agustian Permadi, Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh, and Robert Vautard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2725–2747, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2725-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2725-2018, 2018
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This research quantified the emissions of toxic air pollutants and climate forcing agents from Southeast Asia in 2007. The emission results were used for model simulation of particulate matter air quality. The model outputs were reasonably comparable to available ground level measurement data for both meteorology and air quality. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) for total aerosol and for black carbon alone was calculated and compared to satellite AOD.
Florian Couvidat, Bertrand Bessagnet, Marta Garcia-Vivanco, Elsa Real, Laurent Menut, and Augustin Colette
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 165–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-165-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-165-2018, 2018
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This paper includes the development of a new aerosol module in the air quality model CHIMERE to improve particulate matter (PM) simulation. The results of the model are compared to numerous measurements over Europe to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the model.
Prisco Frei, Sven Kotlarski, Mark A. Liniger, and Christoph Schär
The Cryosphere, 12, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1-2018, 2018
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Snowfall is central to Alpine environments, and its future changes will be associated with pronounced impacts. We here assess future snowfall changes in the European Alps based on an ensemble of state-of-the-art regional climate model experiments and on two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The results reveal pronounced changes in the Alpine snowfall climate with considerable snowfall reductions at low and mid-elevations but also snowfall increases at high elevations in midwinter.
Armin Geisinger, Andreas Behrendt, Volker Wulfmeyer, Jens Strohbach, Jochen Förstner, and Roland Potthast
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 4705–4726, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4705-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4705-2017, 2017
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A new backscatter lidar forward operator for an aerosol-chemistry-transport model is presented which allows for a quantitative comparison of model output and backscatter lidar measurements from existing networks with unprecedented detail. By applying the forward operator, aerosol distribution model simulations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption could be compared both quantitatively and qualitatively to measurements of the automated ceilometer lidar network in Germany.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Jacob Schewe, Lila Warszawski, Fang Zhao, Louise Chini, Sebastien Denvil, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, Kate Halladay, George Hurtt, Matthias Mengel, Daisuke Murakami, Sebastian Ostberg, Alexander Popp, Riccardo Riva, Miodrag Stevanovic, Tatsuo Suzuki, Jan Volkholz, Eleanor Burke, Philippe Ciais, Kristie Ebi, Tyler D. Eddy, Joshua Elliott, Eric Galbraith, Simon N. Gosling, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Jochen Hinkel, Christian Hof, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Valentina Krysanova, Rafael Marcé, Hannes Müller Schmied, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Don Pierson, Derek P. Tittensor, Robert Vautard, Michelle van Vliet, Matthias F. Biber, Richard A. Betts, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Delphine Deryng, Steve Frolking, Chris D. Jones, Heike K. Lotze, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Ritvik Sahajpal, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, and Yoshiki Yamagata
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, 2017
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This paper describes the simulation scenario design for the next phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is designed to facilitate a contribution to the scientific basis for the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming. ISIMIP brings together over 80 climate-impact models, covering impacts on hydrology, biomes, forests, heat-related mortality, permafrost, tropical cyclones, fisheries, agiculture, energy, and coastal infrastructure.
Deborah Verfaillie, Michel Déqué, Samuel Morin, and Matthieu Lafaysse
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4257–4283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4257-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4257-2017, 2017
Susanne Schuck-Zöller, Jörg Cortekar, and Daniela Jacob
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 305–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-305-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-305-2017, 2017
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Climate services and other fields, that are used to integrate the users in research activities (co-creation), are pledging for existing evaluation methods to be widened up. The authors harmonize the different elements of evaluation in an evaluation
cascade, scaling down from very general evaluation dimensions to tangible assessment methods and suggest how to proceed in developing evaluation criteria and indicators. Two examples demonstrate how co-creation of knowledge could be assessed.
Efisio Solazzo, Christian Hogrefe, Augustin Colette, Marta Garcia-Vivanco, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10435–10465, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10435-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10435-2017, 2017
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The work here is conducted within the frame of AQMEII3 and promotes the use of diagnostic methods for the evaluation of air quality models. We highlight the need to move away from aggregated error metrics and to focus on the quality of the information that can be extracted from the model and the observation. This aids the understanding of the causes of model error, providing more useful information to model developers and users than can be gained from common evaluations.
Augustin Colette, Camilla Andersson, Astrid Manders, Kathleen Mar, Mihaela Mircea, Maria-Teresa Pay, Valentin Raffort, Svetlana Tsyro, Cornelius Cuvelier, Mario Adani, Bertrand Bessagnet, Robert Bergström, Gino Briganti, Tim Butler, Andrea Cappelletti, Florian Couvidat, Massimo D'Isidoro, Thierno Doumbia, Hilde Fagerli, Claire Granier, Chris Heyes, Zig Klimont, Narendra Ojha, Noelia Otero, Martijn Schaap, Katarina Sindelarova, Annemiek I. Stegehuis, Yelva Roustan, Robert Vautard, Erik van Meijgaard, Marta Garcia Vivanco, and Peter Wind
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3255–3276, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3255-2017, 2017
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The EURODELTA-Trends numerical experiment has been designed to assess the capability of chemistry-transport models to capture the evolution of surface air quality over the 1990–2010 period in Europe. It also includes sensitivity experiments in order to analyse the relative contribution of (i) emission changes, (ii) meteorological variability, and (iii) boundary conditions to air quality trends. The article is a detailed presentation of the experiment design and participating models.
Luis Samaniego, Rohini Kumar, Stephan Thober, Oldrich Rakovec, Matthias Zink, Niko Wanders, Stephanie Eisner, Hannes Müller Schmied, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Sabine Attinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4323–4346, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4323-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4323-2017, 2017
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We inspect the state-of-the-art of several land surface (LSMs) and hydrologic models (HMs) and show that most do not have consistent and realistic parameter fields for land surface geophysical properties. We propose to use the multiscale parameter regionalization (MPR) technique to solve, at least partly, the scaling problem in LSMs/HMs. A general model protocol is presented to describe how MPR can be applied to a specific model.
Martin Wild, Atsumu Ohmura, Christoph Schär, Guido Müller, Doris Folini, Matthias Schwarz, Maria Zyta Hakuba, and Arturo Sanchez-Lorenzo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 601–613, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-601-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-601-2017, 2017
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The Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) is a database for the central storage of worldwide measured energy fluxes at the Earth's surface, maintained at ETH Zurich (Switzerland). This paper documents the status of the GEBA version 2017 database, presents the new web interface and user access, and reviews the scientific impact that GEBA data had in various applications. GEBA has continuously been expanded and updated and to date contains around 500 000 monthly mean entries from 2500 locations.
Heike Huebener, Peter Hoffmann, Klaus Keuler, Susanne Pfeifer, Hans Ramthun, Arne Spekat, Christian Steger, and Kirsten Warrach-Sagi
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 261–269, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-261-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-261-2017, 2017
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There is still a large gap between climate research results and their use in climate impact research and policy advisory. One of the many approaches taken to reduce this gap was a midterm user workshop of the German project ReKliEs-De. The users were asked to guide the further project work towards their needs. Conclusions from the workshop included the need for more
plain textguidance on climate model strengths and weaknesses as well as more research on climate impact system functioning.
Sylvain Mailler, Laurent Menut, Dmitry Khvorostyanov, Myrto Valari, Florian Couvidat, Guillaume Siour, Solène Turquety, Régis Briant, Paolo Tuccella, Bertrand Bessagnet, Augustin Colette, Laurent Létinois, Kostantinos Markakis, and Frédérik Meleux
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2397–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2397-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2397-2017, 2017
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CHIMERE is a chemistry-transport model initially designed for box-modelling of the regional atmospheric composition. In the recent years, CHIMERE has been extended to be able to model atmospheric composition at all scales from urban to hemispheric scale, which implied major changes on the coordinate systems as well as on physical processes. This study describes how and why these changes have been brought to the model, largely increasing the range of its possible use.
Thomas Schwitalla, Hans-Stefan Bauer, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Kirsten Warrach-Sagi
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2031–2055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2031-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2031-2017, 2017
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Due to computational constraints, extended-range forecasts on the convection-permitting (CP) scale are often performed using a limited-area model. To overcome disturbances by lateral boundary conditions, a CP latitude belt simulation in the Northern Hemisphere was performed for July and August 2013. This approach allows for the study of resolution and parameterization impacts. The results demonstrate an improved representation of the general circulation and precipitation patterns.
Constantin Ardilouze, Lauriane Batté, and Michel Déqué
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 115–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-115-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-115-2017, 2017
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Was the July 2015 heat wave that struck Western Europe predictable more than 10 days ahead and to what extent? This article addresses the question by assessing forecasts from the CNRM-CM sub-seasonal forecast system. It is found that a warm anomaly was anticipated up to one month ahead despite the limited skill of the forecast system at such lead-time. The possible causes for this relative success are then discussed.
Pascal Yiou, Aglaé Jézéquel, Philippe Naveau, Frederike E. L. Otto, Robert Vautard, and Mathieu Vrac
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 3, 17–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-17-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-17-2017, 2017
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The attribution of classes of extreme events, such as heavy precipitation or heatwaves, relies on the estimate of small probabilities (with and without climate change). Such events are connected to the large-scale atmospheric circulation. This paper links such probabilities with properties of the atmospheric circulation by using a Bayesian decomposition. We test this decomposition on a case of extreme precipitation in the UK, in January 2014.
Andreas Macke, Patric Seifert, Holger Baars, Christian Barthlott, Christoph Beekmans, Andreas Behrendt, Birger Bohn, Matthias Brueck, Johannes Bühl, Susanne Crewell, Thomas Damian, Hartwig Deneke, Sebastian Düsing, Andreas Foth, Paolo Di Girolamo, Eva Hammann, Rieke Heinze, Anne Hirsikko, John Kalisch, Norbert Kalthoff, Stefan Kinne, Martin Kohler, Ulrich Löhnert, Bomidi Lakshmi Madhavan, Vera Maurer, Shravan Kumar Muppa, Jan Schween, Ilya Serikov, Holger Siebert, Clemens Simmer, Florian Späth, Sandra Steinke, Katja Träumner, Silke Trömel, Birgit Wehner, Andreas Wieser, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Xinxin Xie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4887–4914, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4887-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4887-2017, 2017
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This article provides an overview of the instrumental setup and the main results obtained during the two HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiments HOPE-Jülich and HOPE-Melpitz conducted in Germany in April–May and Sept 2013, respectively. Goal of the field experiments was to provide high-resolution observational datasets for both, improving the understaning of boundary layer and cloud processes, as well as for the evaluation of the new ICON model that is run at 156 m horizontal resolution.
Laurent Menut, Sylvain Mailler, Bertrand Bessagnet, Guillaume Siour, Augustin Colette, Florian Couvidat, and Frédérik Meleux
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1199–1208, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1199-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1199-2017, 2017
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A simple and complementary model evaluation technique for regional chemistry transport is discussed. The methodology is based on the concept that we can learn about model performance by comparing the simulation results with observational data available for time periods other than the period originally targeted.
Efisio Solazzo, Roberto Bianconi, Christian Hogrefe, Gabriele Curci, Paolo Tuccella, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocío Baró, Roberto Bellasio, Johannes Bieser, Jørgen Brandt, Jesper H. Christensen, Augistin Colette, Xavier Francis, Andrea Fraser, Marta Garcia Vivanco, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Ulas Im, Astrid Manders, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marje Prank, Ranjeet S. Sokhi, Alper Unal, Greg Yarwood, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3001–3054, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3001-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3001-2017, 2017
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As part of the third phase of AQMEII, this study uses timescale analysis to apportion error to the responsible processes, detect causes of model error, and identify the processes and scales that require dedicated investigations. The analysis tackles model performance gauging through measurement-to-model comparison, error decomposition, and time series analysis of model biases for ozone, CO, SO2, NO, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, wind speed, and temperature over Europe and North America.
Paolo Di Girolamo, Marco Cacciani, Donato Summa, Andrea Scoccione, Benedetto De Rosa, Andreas Behrendt, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 745–767, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-745-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-745-2017, 2017
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This paper reports what we believe are the first measurements throughout the atmospheric convective boundary layer of higher-order moments (up to the fourth) of the turbulent fluctuations of water vapour mixing ratio and temperature performed by a single lidar system, i.e. the Raman lidar system BASIL. These measurements, in combination with measurements from other lidar systems, are fundamental to verify and possibly improve turbulence parametrisation in weather and climate models.
William J. Gutowski Jr., Filippo Giorgi, Bertrand Timbal, Anne Frigon, Daniela Jacob, Hyun-Suk Kang, Krishnan Raghavan, Boram Lee, Christopher Lennard, Grigory Nikulin, Eleanor O'Rourke, Michel Rixen, Silvina Solman, Tannecia Stephenson, and Fredolin Tangang
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4087–4095, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4087-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4087-2016, 2016
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The Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) is a diagnostic MIP in CMIP6. CORDEX builds on a foundation of previous downscaling intercomparison projects to provide a common framework for downscaling activities around the world. The CORDEX Regional Challenges provide a focus for downscaling research and a basis for making use of CMIP6 global output to produce downscaled projected changes in regional climates, and assess sources of uncertainties in the projections.
Antoine Marmy, Jan Rajczak, Reynald Delaloye, Christin Hilbich, Martin Hoelzle, Sven Kotlarski, Christophe Lambiel, Jeannette Noetzli, Marcia Phillips, Nadine Salzmann, Benno Staub, and Christian Hauck
The Cryosphere, 10, 2693–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2693-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2693-2016, 2016
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This paper presents a new semi-automated method to calibrate the 1-D soil model COUP. It is the first time (as far as we know) that this approach is developed for mountain permafrost. It is applied at six test sites in the Swiss Alps. In a second step, the calibrated model is used for RCM-based simulations with specific downscaling of RCM data to the borehole scale. We show projections of the permafrost evolution at the six sites until the end of the century and according to the A1B scenario.
Bertrand Bessagnet, Guido Pirovano, Mihaela Mircea, Cornelius Cuvelier, Armin Aulinger, Giuseppe Calori, Giancarlo Ciarelli, Astrid Manders, Rainer Stern, Svetlana Tsyro, Marta García Vivanco, Philippe Thunis, Maria-Teresa Pay, Augustin Colette, Florian Couvidat, Frédérik Meleux, Laurence Rouïl, Anthony Ung, Sebnem Aksoyoglu, José María Baldasano, Johannes Bieser, Gino Briganti, Andrea Cappelletti, Massimo D'Isidoro, Sandro Finardi, Richard Kranenburg, Camillo Silibello, Claudio Carnevale, Wenche Aas, Jean-Charles Dupont, Hilde Fagerli, Lucia Gonzalez, Laurent Menut, André S. H. Prévôt, Pete Roberts, and Les White
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12667–12701, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12667-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12667-2016, 2016
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The EURODELTA III exercise allows a very comprehensive intercomparison and evaluation of air quality models' performance. On average, the models provide a rather good picture of the particulate matter (PM) concentrations over Europe even if the highest concentrations are underestimated. The meteorology is responsible for model discrepancies, while the lack of emissions, particularly in winter, is mentioned as the main reason for the underestimations of PM.
Deborah Verfaillie, Michel Déqué, Samuel Morin, and Matthieu Lafaysse
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-168, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-168, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
David Leutwyler, Oliver Fuhrer, Xavier Lapillonne, Daniel Lüthi, and Christoph Schär
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3393–3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3393-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3393-2016, 2016
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The representation of moist convection (thunderstorms and rain showers) in climate models represents a major challenge, as this process is usually approximated due to the lack of appropriate computational resolution. Climate simulations using horizontal resolution of O(1 km) allow one to explicitly resolve deep convection and thus allow for an improved representation of the water cycle. We present a set of such simulations covering the European scale using a climate model enabled for GPUs.
Michiel R. van den Broeke, Ellyn M. Enderlin, Ian M. Howat, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Brice P. Y. Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, Erik van Meijgaard, and Bert Wouters
The Cryosphere, 10, 1933–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1933-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1933-2016, 2016
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We present recent (1958–2015) mass balance time series for the Greenland ice sheet. We show that recent mass loss is caused by a combination of increased surface meltwater runoff and solid ice discharge. Most meltwater above 2000 m a.s.l. refreezes in the cold firn and does not leave the ice sheet, but this goes at the expense of firn heating and densifying. In spite of a temporary rebound in 2013, it appears that the ice sheet remains in a state of persistent mass loss.
Armin Geisinger, Andreas Behrendt, Volker Wulfmeyer, Jens Strohbach, Jochen Förstner, Roland Potthast, and Ina Mattis
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-609, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-609, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Hereby, we present a new backscatter lidar forward operator which allows for a quantitative comparison of atmospheric chemistry models and backscatter lidar measurements. We applied the operator on model predictions of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption where the model obviously overestimated the ash concentration. Uncertainties of the operator were minimized by applying averaging algorithms and performing sensitivity studies. Further steps towards quantitative model validation were identified.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Sjoukje Philip, Emma Aalbers, Robert Vautard, Friederike Otto, Karsten Haustein, Florence Habets, Roop Singh, and Heidi Cullen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-308, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-308, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Extreme rain caused flooding in France and Germany at the end of May 2016. After such an event the question is always posed to what extent it can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Using observations and five model ensembles we give a first answer. For the 3-day precipitation extremes over the Seine and Loire basins that caused the flooding all methods agree that the probability has increased by a factor of about two. For 1-day precipitation extremes in Germany the methods disagree.
Lauriane Batté and Michel Déqué
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2055–2076, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2055-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2055-2016, 2016
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Taking into account model inadequacies is a key challenge in climate forecasting. As part of the FP7-SPECS project, we examine how stochastic perturbations of atmospheric model dynamics impact seasonal forecast quality of the CNRM coupled model. The method described in this paper helps derive model error statistics as well as improve key aspects of our forecasting system such as systematic errors over the North Atlantic mid-latitudes.
Li Liu, Fabien Solmon, Robert Vautard, Lynda Hamaoui-Laguel, Csaba Zsolt Torma, and Filippo Giorgi
Biogeosciences, 13, 2769–2786, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2769-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2769-2016, 2016
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To study the distribution of airborne ragweed pollen in changing environments and associated health risks over Europe, we introduce an approach with explicit treatment of pollen ripening, release and dispersion due to environmental drivers in an online modelling framework where climate is integrated with dispersion and vegetation production. From a simulated pollen season and concentration pattern health risks are evaluated through calculation of exposure time above health-relevant threshold levels.
Florian Späth, Andreas Behrendt, Shravan Kumar Muppa, Simon Metzendorf, Andrea Riede, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 1701–1720, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-1701-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-1701-2016, 2016
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The scanning differential absorption lidar (DIAL) of the University of Hohenheim measures water vapor with high temporal and spatial resolutions. In this paper, DIAL measurements of three different scan modes are presented which allow for new insights into the three-dimensional water vapor structure in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). A new method to determine the noise level of scanning measurements was developed, showing uncertainties of < 7 % within the ABL.
Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, and Peter Steen Mikkelsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1387–1403, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1387-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1387-2016, 2016
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Fine-resolution spatio-temporal precipitation data are important as input to urban hydrological models to assess performance issues under all possible conditions. In the present study synthetic data at very fine spatial and temporal resolution are generated using a stochastic model. Data are generated for both present and future climate conditions. The results show that it is possible to generate spatially distributed data at resolutions relevant for urban hydrology.
Vincent E. P. Lemaire, Augustin Colette, and Laurent Menut
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2559–2574, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2559-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2559-2016, 2016
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Because of its sensitivity to unfavorable weather patterns, air pollution is sensitive to climate change. Its impact is typically assessed using deterministic chemistry-transport models forced by an ensemble of climate projection. Because of the high computational cost of such initiative, elaborated techniques are required to optimize the exploration of ensemble of future projections. We develop such a technique, which also allows quantifying uncertainties in climate and air quality projections.
Konstantinos Markakis, Myrto Valari, Magnuz Engardt, Gwendoline Lacressonniere, Robert Vautard, and Camilla Andersson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 1877–1894, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1877-2016, 2016
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The overall climate benefit at both cities and pollutants is −2 to −10 % depending on metric. Over the city of Paris local mitigation of NOx emissions increases future ozone due to titration inhibition. Climate is the most influential factor for maximum ozone in Paris, which is particularly interesting from a health impact perspective. Over urban areas with major regional contribution (e.g. Stockholm) the bias due to coarse emission inventory may lead to policy misclassification.
J. M. van Wessem, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, C. H. Reijmer, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, N. E. Barrand, E. R. Thomas, J. Turner, J. Wuite, T. A. Scambos, and E. van Meijgaard
The Cryosphere, 10, 271–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-271-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-271-2016, 2016
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This study presents the first high-resolution (5.5 km) modelled estimate of surface mass balance (SMB) over the period 1979–2014 for the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Precipitation (snowfall and rain) largely determines the SMB, and is exceptionally high over the western mountain slopes, with annual values > 4 m water equivalent. Snowmelt is widespread over the AP, but only runs off into the ocean at some locations: the Larsen B,C, and Wilkins ice shelves, and along the north-western mountains.
A. Gobiet, M. Suklitsch, and G. Heinrich
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4055–4066, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4055-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4055-2015, 2015
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The effect of empirical-statistical bias correction methods, like quantile mapping (QM), on the simulated climate change signals (CCS) is currently strongly discussed and is often regarded as deficiency of bias correction methods. We demonstrate that, quite the contrary, QM can lead to an improved CCS and also has the potential to serve as an empirical constraint on model uncertainty in climate projections.
B. Noël, W. J. van de Berg, E. van Meijgaard, P. Kuipers Munneke, R. S. W. van de Wal, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 9, 1831–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1831-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1831-2015, 2015
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We compare Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance (SMB) from the updated polar version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3 and the previous version 2.1. RACMO2.3 has an adjusted rainfall-to-snowfall conversion favouring summer snowfall over rainfall. Enhanced summer snowfall reduce melt rates in the ablation zone by covering dark ice with highly reflective fresh snow. This improves the modelled SMB-elevation gradient and surface energy balance compared to observations in west Greenland.
V. Marécal, V.-H. Peuch, C. Andersson, S. Andersson, J. Arteta, M. Beekmann, A. Benedictow, R. Bergström, B. Bessagnet, A. Cansado, F. Chéroux, A. Colette, A. Coman, R. L. Curier, H. A. C. Denier van der Gon, A. Drouin, H. Elbern, E. Emili, R. J. Engelen, H. J. Eskes, G. Foret, E. Friese, M. Gauss, C. Giannaros, J. Guth, M. Joly, E. Jaumouillé, B. Josse, N. Kadygrov, J. W. Kaiser, K. Krajsek, J. Kuenen, U. Kumar, N. Liora, E. Lopez, L. Malherbe, I. Martinez, D. Melas, F. Meleux, L. Menut, P. Moinat, T. Morales, J. Parmentier, A. Piacentini, M. Plu, A. Poupkou, S. Queguiner, L. Robertson, L. Rouïl, M. Schaap, A. Segers, M. Sofiev, L. Tarasson, M. Thomas, R. Timmermans, Á. Valdebenito, P. van Velthoven, R. van Versendaal, J. Vira, and A. Ung
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2777–2813, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2777-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2777-2015, 2015
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This paper describes the air quality forecasting system over Europe put in place in the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate projects. It provides daily and 4-day forecasts and analyses for the previous day for major gas and particulate pollutants and their main precursors. These products are based on a multi-model approach using seven state-of-the-art models developed in Europe. An evaluation of the performance of the system is discussed in the paper.
P. S. Monks, A. T. Archibald, A. Colette, O. Cooper, M. Coyle, R. Derwent, D. Fowler, C. Granier, K. S. Law, G. E. Mills, D. S. Stevenson, O. Tarasova, V. Thouret, E. von Schneidemesser, R. Sommariva, O. Wild, and M. L. Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8889–8973, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8889-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8889-2015, 2015
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Ozone holds a certain fascination in atmospheric science. It is ubiquitous in the atmosphere, central to tropospheric oxidation chemistry, and yet harmful to human and ecosystem health as well as being an important greenhouse gas. It is not emitted into the atmosphere but is a byproduct of the very oxidation chemistry it largely initiates. This review examines current understanding of the processes regulating tropospheric ozone at global to local scales from both measurements and models.
A. I. Stegehuis, R. Vautard, P. Ciais, A. J. Teuling, D. G. Miralles, and M. Wild
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2285–2298, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2285-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2285-2015, 2015
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Many climate models have difficulties in properly reproducing climate extremes such as heat wave conditions. We use a regional climate model with different atmospheric physics schemes to simulate the heat wave events of 2003 in western Europe and 2010 in Russia. The five best-performing and diverse physics scheme combinations may be used in the future to perform heat wave analysis and to investigate the impact of climate change in summer in Europe.
B. Eggert, P. Berg, J. O. Haerter, D. Jacob, and C. Moseley
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5957–5971, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5957-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5957-2015, 2015
A. Behrendt, V. Wulfmeyer, E. Hammann, S. K. Muppa, and S. Pal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5485–5500, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5485-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5485-2015, 2015
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The exchange of energy between the Earth surface and the atmosphere is governed by turbulent processes which form the convective boundary layer (CBL) in daytime. The representation of the CBL in atmospheric models is critical, e.g., for the simulation of clouds and precipitation. We show that a new active remote-sensing technique, rotational Raman lidar, characterizes the turbulent temperature fluctuations in the CBL better than previous techniques and discuss the statistics of a typical case.
S. Banzhaf, M. Schaap, R. Kranenburg, A. M. M. Manders, A. J. Segers, A. J. H. Visschedijk, H. A. C. Denier van der Gon, J. J. P. Kuenen, E. van Meijgaard, L. H. van Ulft, J. Cofala, and P. J. H. Builtjes
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1047-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1047-2015, 2015
E. Katragkou, M. García-Díez, R. Vautard, S. Sobolowski, P. Zanis, G. Alexandri, R. M. Cardoso, A. Colette, J. Fernandez, A. Gobiet, K. Goergen, T. Karacostas, S. Knist, S. Mayer, P. M. M. Soares, I. Pytharoulis, I. Tegoulias, A. Tsikerdekis, and D. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 603–618, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-603-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-603-2015, 2015
E. Hammann, A. Behrendt, F. Le Mounier, and V. Wulfmeyer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2867–2881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2867-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2867-2015, 2015
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Measurements and upgrades of the rotational Raman lidar of the University of Hohenheim during the HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiment are presented in this paper. This includes 25h long time series of temperature gradients and water vapor mixing ratio. Through simulation, optimum wavelengths for high- and low-background cases were identified and tested successfully. Low-elevation measurements were performed to measure temperature gradients at altitudes around 100m above ground level.
E. Terrenoire, B. Bessagnet, L. Rouïl, F. Tognet, G. Pirovano, L. Létinois, M. Beauchamp, A. Colette, P. Thunis, M. Amann, and L. Menut
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 21–42, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-21-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-21-2015, 2015
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The model reproduces the temporal variability of NO2, O3, PM10, PM2.5 better at rural than urban background stations.
The fractional biases show that the model performs slightly better at RB sites than at UB sites for NO2, O3 and PM10.
At UB sites, CHIMERE reproduces PM2.5 better than PM10.
This is primarily the result of an underestimation of coarse particulate matter (PM) associated with uncertainties on SOA chemistry and their precursor emissions, dust and sea salt.
M. A. D. Larsen, J. C. Refsgaard, M. Drews, M. B. Butts, K. H. Jensen, J. H. Christensen, and O. B. Christensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4733–4749, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4733-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4733-2014, 2014
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The paper presents results from a novel dynamical coupling between a hydrology model and a regional climate model developed to include a wider range of processes, land-surface/atmosphere interaction and finer spatio-temporal scales. The coupled performance was largely dependent on the data exchange frequency between the two model components, and longer-term precipitation was somewhat improved by the coupled system whereas the short-term dynamics for a range of variables was less accurate.
E. Zehe, U. Ehret, L. Pfister, T. Blume, B. Schröder, M. Westhoff, C. Jackisch, S. J. Schymanski, M. Weiler, K. Schulz, N. Allroggen, J. Tronicke, L. van Schaik, P. Dietrich, U. Scherer, J. Eccard, V. Wulfmeyer, and A. Kleidon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4635–4655, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4635-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4635-2014, 2014
F. Späth, A. Behrendt, S. K. Muppa, S. Metzendorf, A. Riede, and V. Wulfmeyer
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-29057-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-29057-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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The scanning differential absorption lidar (DIAL) of the University of Hohenheim is presented.
We show the design of the instrument and illustrate its performance with recent water vapor measurements taken in Stuttgart-Hohenheim and in the frame of HOPE. Scanning measurements reveal the 3-dimensional structures of the water vapor field.
The influence of uncertainties within the calculation of the absorption cross-section at wavelengths around 818 nm for the WV retrieval is discussed.
F. Gasper, K. Goergen, P. Shrestha, M. Sulis, J. Rihani, M. Geimer, and S. Kollet
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2531–2543, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2531-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2531-2014, 2014
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014
K. Markakis, M. Valari, A. Colette, O. Sanchez, O. Perrussel, C. Honore, R. Vautard, Z. Klimont, and S. Rao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7323–7340, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7323-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7323-2014, 2014
O. Branch, K. Warrach-Sagi, V. Wulfmeyer, and S. Cohen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1761–1783, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1761-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1761-2014, 2014
L. Menut, R. Vautard, A. Colette, D. Khvorostyanov, A. Potier, L. Hamaoui-Laguel, N. Viovy, and M. Thibaudon
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-10891-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-10891-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
P. Yiou, M. Boichu, R. Vautard, M. Vrac, S. Jourdain, E. Garnier, F. Fluteau, and L. Menut
Clim. Past, 10, 797–809, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-797-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-797-2014, 2014
A. Colette, B. Bessagnet, F. Meleux, E. Terrenoire, and L. Rouïl
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 203–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-203-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-203-2014, 2014
M. A. Sunyer, H. J. D. Sørup, O. B. Christensen, H. Madsen, D. Rosbjerg, P. S. Mikkelsen, and K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4323–4337, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4323-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4323-2013, 2013
A. F. Lutz, W. W. Immerzeel, A. Gobiet, F. Pellicciotti, and M. F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3661–3677, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3661-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3661-2013, 2013
A. Colette, B. Bessagnet, R. Vautard, S. Szopa, S. Rao, S. Schucht, Z. Klimont, L. Menut, G. Clain, F. Meleux, G. Curci, and L. Rouïl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7451–7471, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7451-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7451-2013, 2013
K. Becker, V. Wulfmeyer, T. Berger, J. Gebel, and W. Münch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 237–251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-237-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-237-2013, 2013
L. Menut, B. Bessagnet, D. Khvorostyanov, M. Beekmann, N. Blond, A. Colette, I. Coll, G. Curci, G. Foret, A. Hodzic, S. Mailler, F. Meleux, J.-L. Monge, I. Pison, G. Siour, S. Turquety, M. Valari, R. Vautard, and M. G. Vivanco
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 981–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-981-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-981-2013, 2013
W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, E. van Meijgaard, and F. Kaspar
Clim. Past, 9, 1589–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1589-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1589-2013, 2013
E. Solazzo, R. Bianconi, G. Pirovano, M. D. Moran, R. Vautard, C. Hogrefe, K. W. Appel, V. Matthias, P. Grossi, B. Bessagnet, J. Brandt, C. Chemel, J. H. Christensen, R. Forkel, X. V. Francis, A. B. Hansen, S. McKeen, U. Nopmongcol, M. Prank, K. N. Sartelet, A. Segers, J. D. Silver, G. Yarwood, J. Werhahn, J. Zhang, S. T. Rao, and S. Galmarini
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 791–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-791-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-791-2013, 2013
A. I. Hienola, J.-P. Pietikäinen, D. Jacob, R. Pozdun, T. Petäjä, A.-P. Hyvärinen, L. Sogacheva, V.-M. Kerminen, M. Kulmala, and A. Laaksonen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4033–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4033-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4033-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Climate and Earth system modeling
A rapid-application emissions-to-impacts tool for scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME)
The DOE E3SM version 2.1: overview and assessment of the impacts of parameterized ocean submesoscales
WRF-ELM v1.0: a regional climate model to study land–atmosphere interactions over heterogeneous land use regions
Modeling commercial-scale CO2 storage in the gas hydrate stability zone with PFLOTRAN v6.0
DiuSST: a conceptual model of diurnal warm layers for idealized atmospheric simulations with interactive sea surface temperature
High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7
T&C-CROP: representing mechanistic crop growth with a terrestrial biosphere model (T&C, v1.5) – model formulation and validation
An updated non-intrusive, multi-scale, and flexible coupling interface in WRF 4.6.0
Monitoring and benchmarking Earth system model simulations with ESMValTool v2.12.0
The Earth Science Box Modeling Toolkit (ESBMTK 0.14.0.11): a Python library for research and teaching
CropSuite v1.0 – a comprehensive open-source crop suitability model considering climate variability for climate impact assessment
ICON ComIn – the ICON Community Interface (ComIn version 0.1.0, with ICON version 2024.01-01)
Using feature importance as an exploratory data analysis tool on Earth system models
A new metrics framework for quantifying and intercomparing atmospheric rivers in observations, reanalyses, and climate models
The real challenges for climate and weather modelling on its way to sustained exascale performance: a case study using ICON (v2.6.6)
Improving the representation of major Indian crops in the Community Land Model version 5.0 (CLM5) using site-scale crop data
Evaluation of CORDEX ERA5-forced NARCliM2.0 regional climate models over Australia using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.1.2
Design, evaluation, and future projections of the NARCliM2.0 CORDEX-CMIP6 Australasia regional climate ensemble
Amending the algorithm of aerosol–radiation interactions in WRF-Chem (v4.4)
The very-high-resolution configuration of the EC-Earth global model for HighResMIP
GOSI9: UK Global Ocean and Sea Ice configurations
Decomposition of skill scores for conditional verification: impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phases on the predictability of decadal temperature forecasts
Virtual Integration of Satellite and In-situ Observation Networks (VISION) v1.0: In-Situ Observations Simulator (ISO_simulator)
Climate model downscaling in central Asia: a dynamical and a neural network approach
Multi-year simulations at kilometre scale with the Integrated Forecasting System coupled to FESOM2.5 and NEMOv3.4
Subsurface hydrological controls on the short-term effects of hurricanes on nitrate–nitrogen runoff loading: a case study of Hurricane Ida using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (v2.1)
CARIB12: a regional Community Earth System Model/Modular Ocean Model 6 configuration of the Caribbean Sea
Architectural insights into and training methodology optimization of Pangu-Weather
Evaluation of global fire simulations in CMIP6 Earth system models
Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances
Software sustainability of global impact models
fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining, and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections
ISOM 1.0: a fully mesoscale-resolving idealized Southern Ocean model and the diversity of multiscale eddy interactions
A computationally lightweight model for ensemble forecasting of environmental hazards: General TAMSAT-ALERT v1.2.1
Introducing the MESMER-M-TPv0.1.0 module: spatially explicit Earth system model emulation for monthly precipitation and temperature
Investigating Carbon and Nitrogen Conservation in Reported CMIP6 Earth System Model Data
The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7
Robust handling of extremes in quantile mapping – “Murder your darlings”
A protocol for model intercomparison of impacts of marine cloud brightening climate intervention
An extensible perturbed parameter ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model version 6
Coupling the regional climate model ICON-CLM v2.6.6 to the Earth system model GCOAST-AHOI v2.0 using OASIS3-MCT v4.0
A fully coupled solid-particle microphysics scheme for stratospheric aerosol injections within the aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv2
The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP)
An improved representation of aerosol in the ECMWF IFS-COMPO 49R1 through the integration of EQSAM4Climv12 – a first attempt at simulating aerosol acidity
At-scale Model Output Statistics in mountain environments (AtsMOS v1.0)
Impact of ocean vertical-mixing parameterization on Arctic sea ice and upper-ocean properties using the NEMO-SI3 model
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PaleoSTeHM v1.0-rc: a modern, scalable spatio-temporal hierarchical modeling framework for paleo-environmental data
From Weather Data to River Runoff: Leveraging Spatiotemporal Convolutional Networks for Comprehensive Discharge Forecasting
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor J. Burke, Gregory Munday, Chris D. Jones, Chris J. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris Huntingford, Eszter Kovacs, Laila K. Gohar, Rebecca M. Varney, and Douglas McNeall
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1785–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, 2025
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We present PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions), which is designed to take new emissions scenarios and rapidly provide regional impact information. PRIME allows large ensembles to be run on multi-centennial timescales, including the analysis of many important variables for impact assessments. Our evaluation shows that PRIME reproduces the climate response for known scenarios, providing confidence in using PRIME for novel scenarios.
Katherine M. Smith, Alice M. Barthel, LeAnn M. Conlon, Luke P. Van Roekel, Anthony Bartoletti, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Chengzhu Zhang, Carolyn Branecky Begeman, James J. Benedict, Gautam Bisht, Yan Feng, Walter Hannah, Bryce E. Harrop, Nicole Jeffery, Wuyin Lin, Po-Lun Ma, Mathew E. Maltrud, Mark R. Petersen, Balwinder Singh, Qi Tang, Teklu Tesfa, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Shaocheng Xie, Xue Zheng, Karthik Balaguru, Oluwayemi Garuba, Peter Gleckler, Aixue Hu, Jiwoo Lee, Ben Moore-Maley, and Ana C. Ordoñez
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1613–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1613-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1613-2025, 2025
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Version 2.1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) adds the Fox-Kemper et al. (2011) mixed-layer eddy parameterization, which restratifies the ocean surface layer through an overturning streamfunction. Results include surface layer bias reduction in temperature, salinity, and sea ice extent in the North Atlantic; a small strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation; and improvements to many atmospheric climatological variables.
Huilin Huang, Yun Qian, Gautam Bisht, Jiali Wang, Tirthankar Chakraborty, Dalei Hao, Jianfeng Li, Travis Thurber, Balwinder Singh, Zhao Yang, Ye Liu, Pengfei Xue, William J. Sacks, Ethan Coon, and Robert Hetland
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1427–1443, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1427-2025, 2025
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We integrate the E3SM Land Model (ELM) with the WRF model through the Lightweight Infrastructure for Land Atmosphere Coupling (LILAC) Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). This framework includes a top-level driver, LILAC, for variable communication between WRF and ELM and ESMF caps for ELM initialization, execution, and finalization. The LILAC–ESMF framework maintains the integrity of the ELM's source code structure and facilitates the transfer of future ELM model developments to WRF-ELM.
Michael Nole, Jonah Bartrand, Fawz Naim, and Glenn Hammond
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1413–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1413-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1413-2025, 2025
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Safe carbon dioxide (CO2) storage is likely to be critical for mitigating some of the most severe effects of climate change. We present a simulation framework for modeling CO2 storage beneath the seafloor, where CO2 can form a solid. This can aid in permanent CO2 storage for long periods of time. Our models show what a commercial-scale CO2 injection would look like in a marine environment. We discuss what would need to be considered when designing a subsea CO2 injection.
Reyk Börner, Jan O. Haerter, and Romain Fiévet
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1333–1356, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1333-2025, 2025
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The daily cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) impacts clouds above the ocean and could influence the clustering of thunderstorms linked to extreme rainfall and hurricanes. However, daily SST variability is often poorly represented in modeling studies of how clouds cluster. We present a simple, wind-responsive model of upper-ocean temperature for use in atmospheric simulations. Evaluating the model against observations, we show that it performs significantly better than common slab models.
Malcolm J. Roberts, Kevin A. Reed, Qing Bao, Joseph J. Barsugli, Suzana J. Camargo, Louis-Philippe Caron, Ping Chang, Cheng-Ta Chen, Hannah M. Christensen, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Ivy Frenger, Neven S. Fučkar, Shabeh ul Hasson, Helene T. Hewitt, Huanping Huang, Daehyun Kim, Chihiro Kodama, Michael Lai, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung, Ryo Mizuta, Paulo Nobre, Pablo Ortega, Dominique Paquin, Christopher D. Roberts, Enrico Scoccimarro, Jon Seddon, Anne Marie Treguier, Chia-Ying Tu, Paul A. Ullrich, Pier Luigi Vidale, Michael F. Wehner, Colin M. Zarzycki, Bosong Zhang, Wei Zhang, and Ming Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1307–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, 2025
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HighResMIP2 is a model intercomparison project focusing on high-resolution global climate models, that is, those with grid spacings of 25 km or less in the atmosphere and ocean, using simulations of decades to a century in length. We are proposing an update of our simulation protocol to make the models more applicable to key questions for climate variability and hazard in present-day and future projections and to build links with other communities to provide more robust climate information.
Jordi Buckley Paules, Simone Fatichi, Bonnie Warring, and Athanasios Paschalis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1287–1305, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1287-2025, 2025
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We present and validate enhancements to the process-based T&C model aimed at improving its representation of crop growth and management practices. The updated model, T&C-CROP, enables applications such as analysing the hydrological and carbon storage impacts of land use transitions (e.g. conversions between crops, forests, and pastures) and optimizing irrigation and fertilization strategies in response to climate change.
Sébastien Masson, Swen Jullien, Eric Maisonnave, David Gill, Guillaume Samson, Mathieu Le Corre, and Lionel Renault
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1241–1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1241-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1241-2025, 2025
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This article details a new feature we implemented in the popular regional atmospheric model WRF. This feature allows for data exchange between WRF and any other model (e.g. an ocean model) using the coupling library Ocean–Atmosphere–Sea–Ice–Soil Model Coupling Toolkit (OASIS3-MCT). This coupling interface is designed to be non-intrusive, flexible and modular. It also offers the possibility of taking into account the nested zooms used in WRF or in the models with which it is coupled.
Axel Lauer, Lisa Bock, Birgit Hassler, Patrick Jöckel, Lukas Ruhe, and Manuel Schlund
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1169–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, 2025
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Earth system models are important tools to improve our understanding of current climate and to project climate change. Thus, it is crucial to understand possible shortcomings in the models. New features of the ESMValTool software package allow one to compare and visualize a model's performance with respect to reproducing observations in the context of other climate models in an easy and user-friendly way. We aim to help model developers assess and monitor climate simulations more efficiently.
Ulrich G. Wortmann, Tina Tsan, Mahrukh Niazi, Irene A. Ma, Ruben Navasardyan, Magnus-Roland Marun, Bernardo S. Chede, Jingwen Zhong, and Morgan Wolfe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1155–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1155-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1155-2025, 2025
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The Earth Science Box Modeling Toolkit (ESBMTK) is a user-friendly Python library that simplifies the creation of models to study earth system processes, such as the carbon cycle and ocean chemistry. It enhances learning by emphasizing concepts over programming and is accessible to students and researchers alike. By automating complex calculations and promoting code clarity, ESBMTK accelerates model development while improving reproducibility and the usability of scientific research.
Florian Zabel, Matthias Knüttel, and Benjamin Poschlod
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1067–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1067-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1067-2025, 2025
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CropSuite is a new open-source crop suitability model. It provides a GUI and a wide range of options, including a spatial downscaling of climate data. We apply CropSuite to 48 staple and opportunity crops at a 1 km spatial resolution in Africa. We find that climate variability significantly impacts suitable areas but also affects optimal sowing dates and multiple cropping potential. The results provide valuable information for climate impact assessments, adaptation, and land-use planning.
Kerstin Hartung, Bastian Kern, Nils-Arne Dreier, Jörn Geisbüsch, Mahnoosh Haghighatnasab, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, Wilton Jaciel Loch, Florian Prill, and Daniel Rieger
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1001–1015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, 2025
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The ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON) model system Community Interface (ComIn) library supports connecting third-party modules to the ICON model. Third-party modules can range from simple diagnostic Python scripts to full chemistry models. ComIn offers a low barrier for code extensions to ICON, provides multi-language support (Fortran, C/C++, and Python), and reduces the migration effort in response to new ICON releases. This paper presents the ComIn design principles and a range of use cases.
Daniel Ries, Katherine Goode, Kellie McClernon, and Benjamin Hillman
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1041–1065, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1041-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1041-2025, 2025
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Machine learning has advanced research in the climate science domain, but its models are difficult to understand. In order to understand the impacts and consequences of climate interventions such as stratospheric aerosol injection, complex models are often necessary. We use a case study to illustrate how we can understand the inner workings of a complex model. We present this technique as an exploratory tool that can be used to quickly discover and assess relationships in complex climate data.
Bo Dong, Paul Ullrich, Jiwoo Lee, Peter Gleckler, Kristin Chang, and Travis A. O'Brien
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 961–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-961-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-961-2025, 2025
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A metrics package designed for easy analysis of atmospheric river (AR) characteristics and statistics is presented. The tool is efficient for diagnosing systematic AR bias in climate models and useful for evaluating new AR characteristics in model simulations. In climate models, landfalling AR precipitation shows dry biases globally, and AR tracks are farther poleward (equatorward) in the North and South Atlantic (South Pacific and Indian Ocean).
Panagiotis Adamidis, Erik Pfister, Hendryk Bockelmann, Dominik Zobel, Jens-Olaf Beismann, and Marek Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 905–919, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-905-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-905-2025, 2025
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In this paper, we investigated performance indicators of the climate model ICON (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic) on different compute architectures to answer the question of how to generate high-resolution climate simulations. Evidently, it is not enough to use more computing units of the conventionally used architectures; higher memory throughput is the most promising approach. More potential can be gained from single-node optimization rather than simply increasing the number of compute nodes.
Kangari Narender Reddy, Somnath Baidya Roy, Sam S. Rabin, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Gudimetla Venkateswara Varma, Ruchira Biswas, and Devavat Chiru Naik
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 763–785, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-763-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-763-2025, 2025
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The study aimed to improve the representation of wheat and rice in a land model for the Indian region. The modified model performed significantly better than the default model in simulating crop phenology, yield, and carbon, water, and energy fluxes compared to observations. The study highlights the need for global land models to use region-specific crop parameters for accurately simulating vegetation processes and land surface processes.
Giovanni Di Virgilio, Fei Ji, Eugene Tam, Jason P. Evans, Jatin Kala, Julia Andrys, Christopher Thomas, Dipayan Choudhury, Carlos Rocha, Yue Li, and Matthew L. Riley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 703–724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-703-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-703-2025, 2025
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We evaluate the skill in simulating the Australian climate of some of the latest generation of regional climate models. We show when and where the models simulate this climate with high skill versus model limitations. We show how new models perform relative to the previous-generation models, assessing how model design features may underlie key performance improvements. This work is of national and international relevance as it can help guide the use and interpretation of climate projections.
Giovanni Di Virgilio, Jason P. Evans, Fei Ji, Eugene Tam, Jatin Kala, Julia Andrys, Christopher Thomas, Dipayan Choudhury, Carlos Rocha, Stephen White, Yue Li, Moutassem El Rafei, Rishav Goyal, Matthew L. Riley, and Jyothi Lingala
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 671–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-671-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-671-2025, 2025
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We introduce new climate models that simulate Australia’s future climate at regional scales, including at an unprecedented resolution of 4 km for 1950–2100. We describe the model design process used to create these new climate models. We show how the new models perform relative to previous-generation models and compare their climate projections. This work is of national and international relevance as it can help guide climate model design and the use and interpretation of climate projections.
Jiawang Feng, Chun Zhao, Qiuyan Du, Zining Yang, and Chen Jin
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 585–603, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-585-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-585-2025, 2025
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In this study, we improved the calculation of how aerosols in the air interact with radiation in WRF-Chem. The original model used a simplified method, but we developed a more accurate approach. We found that this method significantly changes the properties of the estimated aerosols and their effects on radiation, especially for dust aerosols. It also impacts the simulated weather conditions. Our work highlights the importance of correctly representing aerosol–radiation interactions in models.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Thomas Arsouze, Mario Acosta, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Miguel Castrillo, Eric Ferrer, Amanda Frigola, Daria Kuznetsova, Eneko Martin-Martinez, Pablo Ortega, and Sergi Palomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 461–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025, 2025
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We present the high-resolution model version of the EC-Earth global climate model to contribute to HighResMIP. The combined model resolution is about 10–15 km in both the ocean and atmosphere, which makes it one of the finest ever used to complete historical and scenario simulations. This model is compared with two lower-resolution versions, with a 100 km and a 25 km grid. The three models are compared with observations to study the improvements thanks to the increased resolution.
Catherine Guiavarc'h, David Storkey, Adam T. Blaker, Ed Blockley, Alex Megann, Helene Hewitt, Michael J. Bell, Daley Calvert, Dan Copsey, Bablu Sinha, Sophia Moreton, Pierre Mathiot, and Bo An
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 377–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, 2025
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The Global Ocean and Sea Ice configuration version 9 (GOSI9) is the new UK hierarchy of model configurations based on the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) and available at three resolutions. It will be used for various applications, e.g. weather forecasting and climate prediction. It improves upon the previous version by reducing global temperature and salinity biases and enhancing the representation of Arctic sea ice and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.
Andy Richling, Jens Grieger, and Henning W. Rust
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 361–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025, 2025
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The performance of weather and climate prediction systems is variable in time and space. It is of interest how this performance varies in different situations. We provide a decomposition of a skill score (a measure of forecast performance) as a tool for detailed assessment of performance variability to support model development or forecast improvement. The framework is exemplified with decadal forecasts to assess the impact of different ocean states in the North Atlantic on temperature forecast.
Maria R. Russo, Sadie L. Bartholomew, David Hassell, Alex M. Mason, Erica Neininger, A. James Perman, David A. J. Sproson, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Nathan Luke Abraham
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 181–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-181-2025, 2025
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Observational data and modelling capabilities have expanded in recent years, but there are still barriers preventing these two data sources from being used in synergy. Proper comparison requires generating, storing, and handling a large amount of data. This work describes the first step in the development of a new set of software tools, the VISION toolkit, which can enable the easy and efficient integration of observational and model data required for model evaluation.
Bijan Fallah, Masoud Rostami, Emmanuele Russo, Paula Harder, Christoph Menz, Peter Hoffmann, Iulii Didovets, and Fred F. Hattermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 161–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-161-2025, 2025
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We tried to contribute to a local climate change impact study in central Asia, a region that is water-scarce and vulnerable to global climate change. We use regional models and machine learning to produce reliable local data from global climate models. We find that regional models show more realistic and detailed changes in heavy precipitation than global climate models. Our work can help assess the future risks of extreme events and plan adaptation strategies in central Asia.
Thomas Rackow, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Milinski, Irina Sandu, Razvan Aguridan, Peter Bechtold, Sebastian Beyer, Jean Bidlot, Souhail Boussetta, Willem Deconinck, Michail Diamantakis, Peter Dueben, Emanuel Dutra, Richard Forbes, Rohit Ghosh, Helge F. Goessling, Ioan Hadade, Jan Hegewald, Thomas Jung, Sarah Keeley, Lukas Kluft, Nikolay Koldunov, Aleksei Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Josh Kousal, Christian Kühnlein, Pedro Maciel, Kristian Mogensen, Tiago Quintino, Inna Polichtchouk, Balthasar Reuter, Domokos Sármány, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jan Streffing, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Steffen Tietsche, Mirco Valentini, Benoît Vannière, Nils Wedi, Lorenzo Zampieri, and Florian Ziemen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 33–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, 2025
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Detailed global climate model simulations have been created based on a numerical weather prediction model, offering more accurate spatial detail down to the scale of individual cities ("kilometre-scale") and a better understanding of climate phenomena such as atmospheric storms, whirls in the ocean, and cracks in sea ice. The new model aims to provide globally consistent information on local climate change with greater precision, benefiting environmental planning and local impact modelling.
Yilin Fang, Hoang Viet Tran, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 19–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, 2025
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Hurricanes may worsen water quality in the lower Mississippi River basin (LMRB) by increasing nutrient runoff. We found that runoff parameterizations greatly affect nitrate–nitrogen runoff simulated using an Earth system land model. Our simulations predicted increased nitrogen runoff in the LMRB during Hurricane Ida in 2021, albeit less pronounced than the observations, indicating areas for model improvement to better understand and manage nutrient runoff loss during hurricanes in the region.
Giovanni Seijo-Ellis, Donata Giglio, Gustavo Marques, and Frank Bryan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8989–9021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8989-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8989-2024, 2024
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A CESM–MOM6 regional configuration of the Caribbean Sea was developed in response to the rising need for high-resolution models for climate impact studies. The configuration is validated for the period 2000–2020 and improves significant errors in a low-resolution model. Oceanic properties are well represented. Patterns of freshwater associated with the Amazon River are well captured, and the mean flows of ocean waters across multiple passages in the Caribbean Sea agree with observations.
Deifilia To, Julian Quinting, Gholam Ali Hoshyaripour, Markus Götz, Achim Streit, and Charlotte Debus
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8873–8884, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8873-2024, 2024
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Pangu-Weather is a breakthrough machine learning model in medium-range weather forecasting that considers 3D atmospheric information. We show that using a simpler 2D framework improves robustness, speeds up training, and reduces computational needs by 20 %–30 %. We introduce a training procedure that varies the importance of atmospheric variables over time to speed up training convergence. Decreasing computational demand increases the accessibility of training and working with the model.
Fang Li, Xiang Song, Sandy P. Harrison, Jennifer R. Marlon, Zhongda Lin, L. Ruby Leung, Jörg Schwinger, Virginie Marécal, Shiyu Wang, Daniel S. Ward, Xiao Dong, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, and Roland Séférian
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8751–8771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, 2024
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This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of historical fire simulations from 19 Earth system models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Most models reproduce global totals, spatial patterns, seasonality, and regional historical changes well but fail to simulate the recent decline in global burned area and underestimate the fire response to climate variability. CMIP6 simulations address three critical issues of phase-5 models.
Seung H. Baek, Paul A. Ullrich, Bo Dong, and Jiwoo Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8665–8681, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8665-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8665-2024, 2024
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We evaluate downscaled products by examining locally relevant co-variances during precipitation events. Common statistical downscaling techniques preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation (a stationary phenomenon). However, they dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation (a non-stationary phenomenon) captured in global climate models and dynamical downscaling. Our study quantifies a ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling.
Emmanuel Nyenah, Petra Döll, Daniel S. Katz, and Robert Reinecke
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8593–8611, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8593-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8593-2024, 2024
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Research software is vital for scientific progress but is often developed by scientists with limited skills, time, and funding, leading to challenges in usability and maintenance. Our study across 10 sectors shows strengths in version control, open-source licensing, and documentation while emphasizing the need for containerization and code quality. We recommend workshops; code quality metrics; funding; and following the findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) standards.
Chris Smith, Donald P. Cummins, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Zebedee Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Myles Allen, Stuart Jenkins, Nicholas Leach, Camilla Mathison, and Antti-Ilari Partanen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8569–8592, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024, 2024
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Climate projections are only useful if the underlying models that produce them are well calibrated and can reproduce observed climate change. We formalise a software package that calibrates the open-source FaIR simple climate model to full-complexity Earth system models. Observations, including historical warming, and assessments of key climate variables such as that of climate sensitivity are used to constrain the model output.
Jingwei Xie, Xi Wang, Hailong Liu, Pengfei Lin, Jiangfeng Yu, Zipeng Yu, Junlin Wei, and Xiang Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8469–8493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8469-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8469-2024, 2024
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We propose the concept of mesoscale ocean direct numerical simulation (MODNS), which should resolve the first baroclinic deformation radius and ensure the numerical dissipative effects do not directly contaminate the mesoscale motions. It can be a benchmark for testing mesoscale ocean large eddy simulation (MOLES) methods in ocean models. We build an idealized Southern Ocean model using MITgcm to generate a type of MODNS. We also illustrate the diversity of multiscale eddy interactions.
Emily Black, John Ellis, and Ross I. Maidment
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8353–8372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8353-2024, 2024
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We present General TAMSAT-ALERT, a computationally lightweight and versatile tool for generating ensemble forecasts from time series data. General TAMSAT-ALERT is capable of combining multiple streams of monitoring and meteorological forecasting data into probabilistic hazard assessments. In this way, it complements existing systems and enhances their utility for actionable hazard assessment.
Sarah Schöngart, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Peter Pfleiderer, Quentin Lejeune, Shruti Nath, Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8283–8320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, 2024
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Precipitation and temperature are two of the most impact-relevant climatic variables. Yet, projecting future precipitation and temperature data under different emission scenarios relies on complex models that are computationally expensive. In this study, we propose a method that allows us to generate monthly means of local precipitation and temperature at low computational costs. Our modelling framework is particularly useful for all downstream applications of climate model data.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Chris Jones, Thomas Gasser, Alexander Norton, Tilo Ziehn, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, and Malte Meinshausen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3522, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3522, 2024
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We analyzed carbon and nitrogen mass conservation in data from CMIP6 Earth System Models. Our findings reveal significant discrepancies between flux and pool size data, particularly in nitrogen, where cumulative imbalances can reach hundreds of gigatons. These imbalances appear primarily due to missing or inconsistently reported fluxes – especially for land use and fire emissions. To enhance data quality, we recommend that future climate data protocols address this issue at the reporting stage.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
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We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Peter Berg, Thomas Bosshard, Denica Bozhinova, Lars Bärring, Joakim Löw, Carolina Nilsson, Gustav Strandberg, Johan Södling, Johan Thuresson, Renate Wilcke, and Wei Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8173–8179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8173-2024, 2024
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When bias adjusting climate model data using quantile mapping, one needs to prescribe what to do at the tails of the distribution, where a larger data range is likely encountered outside of the calibration period. The end result is highly dependent on the method used. We show that, to avoid discontinuities in the time series, one needs to exclude data in the calibration range to also activate the extrapolation functionality in that time period.
Philip J. Rasch, Haruki Hirasawa, Mingxuan Wu, Sarah J. Doherty, Robert Wood, Hailong Wang, Andy Jones, James Haywood, and Hansi Singh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7963–7994, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7963-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7963-2024, 2024
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We introduce a protocol to compare computer climate simulations to better understand a proposed strategy intended to counter warming and climate impacts from greenhouse gas increases. This slightly changes clouds in six ocean regions to reflect more sunlight and cool the Earth. Example changes in clouds and climate are shown for three climate models. Cloud changes differ between the models, but precipitation and surface temperature changes are similar when their cooling effects are made similar.
Trude Eidhammer, Andrew Gettelman, Katherine Thayer-Calder, Duncan Watson-Parris, Gregory Elsaesser, Hugh Morrison, Marcus van Lier-Walqui, Ci Song, and Daniel McCoy
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7835–7853, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7835-2024, 2024
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We describe a dataset where 45 parameters related to cloud processes in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) are perturbed. Three sets of perturbed parameter ensembles (263 members) were created: current climate, preindustrial aerosol loading and future climate with sea surface temperature increased by 4 K.
Ha Thi Minh Ho-Hagemann, Vera Maurer, Stefan Poll, and Irina Fast
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7815–7834, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7815-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7815-2024, 2024
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The regional Earth system model GCOAST-AHOI v2.0 that includes the regional climate model ICON-CLM coupled to the ocean model NEMO and the hydrological discharge model HD via the OASIS3-MCT coupler can be a useful tool for conducting long-term regional climate simulations over the EURO-CORDEX domain. The new OASIS3-MCT coupling interface implemented in ICON-CLM makes it more flexible for coupling to an external ocean model and an external hydrological discharge model.
Sandro Vattioni, Rahel Weber, Aryeh Feinberg, Andrea Stenke, John A. Dykema, Beiping Luo, Georgios A. Kelesidis, Christian A. Bruun, Timofei Sukhodolov, Frank N. Keutsch, Thomas Peter, and Gabriel Chiodo
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7767–7793, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7767-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7767-2024, 2024
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We quantified impacts and efficiency of stratospheric solar climate intervention via solid particle injection. Microphysical interactions of solid particles with the sulfur cycle were interactively coupled to the heterogeneous chemistry scheme and the radiative transfer code of an aerosol–chemistry–climate model. Compared to injection of SO2 we only find a stronger cooling efficiency for solid particles when normalizing to the aerosol load but not when normalizing to the injection rate.
Ingo Richter, Ping Chang, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Dietmar Dommenget, Guillaume Gastineau, Aixue Hu, Takahito Kataoka, Noel Keenlyside, Fred Kucharski, Yuko Okumura, Wonsun Park, Malte Stuecker, Andrea Taschetto, Chunzai Wang, Stephen Yeager, and Sang-Wook Yeh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3110, 2024
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The tropical ocean basins influence each other through multiple pathways and mechanisms, here referred to as tropical basin interaction (TBI). Many researchers have examined TBI using comprehensive climate models, but have obtained conflicting results. This may be partly due to differences in experiment protocols, and partly due to systematic model errors. TBIMIP aims to address this problem by designing a set of TBI experiments that will be performed by multiple models.
Samuel Rémy, Swen Metzger, Vincent Huijnen, Jason E. Williams, and Johannes Flemming
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7539–7567, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7539-2024, 2024
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In this paper we describe the development of the future operational cycle 49R1 of the IFS-COMPO system, used for operational forecasts of atmospheric composition in the CAMS project, and focus on the implementation of the thermodynamical model EQSAM4Clim version 12. The implementation of EQSAM4Clim significantly improves the simulated secondary inorganic aerosol surface concentration. The new aerosol and precipitation acidity diagnostics showed good agreement against observational datasets.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Tom Matthews, L. Baker Perry, Nirakar Thapa, and Rob Wilby
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7629–7643, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7629-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7629-2024, 2024
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This paper introduces the AtsMOS workflow, a new tool for improving weather forecasts in mountainous areas. By combining advanced statistical techniques with local weather data, AtsMOS can provide more accurate predictions of weather conditions. Using data from Mount Everest as an example, AtsMOS has shown promise in better forecasting hazardous weather conditions, making it a valuable tool for communities in mountainous regions and beyond.
Sofia Allende, Anne Marie Treguier, Camille Lique, Clément de Boyer Montégut, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, and Antoine Barthélemy
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7445–7466, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7445-2024, 2024
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We study the parameters of the turbulent-kinetic-energy mixed-layer-penetration scheme in the NEMO model with regard to sea-ice-covered regions of the Arctic Ocean. This evaluation reveals the impact of these parameters on mixed-layer depth, sea surface temperature and salinity, and ocean stratification. Our findings demonstrate significant impacts on sea ice thickness and sea ice concentration, emphasizing the need for accurately representing ocean mixing to understand Arctic climate dynamics.
Pengfei Shi, L. Ruby Leung, and Bin Wang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-183, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-183, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Improving climate predictions has significant socio-economic impacts. In this study, we developed and applied a weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system to a coupled climate model. The WCODA system improves simulations of ocean temperature and salinity across many global regions. It also enhances the simulation of interannual precipitation and temperature variability over the southern US. This system is to support future predictability studies.
Sabin I. Taranu, David M. Lawrence, Yoshihide Wada, Ting Tang, Erik Kluzek, Sam Rabin, Yi Yao, Steven J. De Hertog, Inne Vanderkelen, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7365–7399, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7365-2024, 2024
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In this study, we improved a climate model by adding the representation of water use sectors such as domestic, industry, and agriculture. This new feature helps us understand how water is used and supplied in various areas. We tested our model from 1971 to 2010 and found that it accurately identifies areas with water scarcity. By modelling the competition between sectors when water availability is limited, the model helps estimate the intensity and extent of individual sectors' water shortages.
Yucheng Lin, Robert E. Kopp, Alexander Reedy, Matteo Turilli, Shantenu Jha, and Erica L. Ashe
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2183, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2183, 2024
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PaleoSTeHM v1.0-rc is a state-of-the-art framework designed to reconstruct past environmental conditions using geological data. Built on modern machine learning techniques, it efficiently handles the sparse and noisy nature of paleo records, allowing scientists to make accurate and scalable inferences about past environmental change. By using flexible statistical models, PaleoSTeHM separates different sources of uncertainty, improving the precision of historical climate reconstructions.
Florian Börgel, Sven Karsten, Karoline Rummel, and Ulf Gräwe
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2685, 2024
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Forecasting river runoff, crucial for managing water resources and understanding climate impacts, can be challenging. This study introduces a new method using Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) networks, a machine learning model that processes spatial and temporal data. Focusing on the Baltic Sea region, our model uses weather data as input to predict daily river runoff for 97 rivers.
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