Articles | Volume 15, issue 2
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
25 Jan 2022
Model description paper
| 25 Jan 2022
PARASO, a circum-Antarctic fully coupled ice-sheet–ocean–sea-ice–atmosphere–land model involving f.ETISh1.7, NEMO3.6, LIM3.6, COSMO5.0 and CLM4.5
Charles Pelletier et al.
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Hugues Goosse, Sofia Allende Contador, Cecilia M. Bitz, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Clare Eayrs, Thierry Fichefet, Kenza Himmich, Pierre-Vincent Huot, François Klein, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Charles Pelletier, Lettie A. Roach, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-201, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-201, 2022
Preprint under review for TC
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Using idealized sensitivity experiments with a regional atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model, we show that the sea ice advance is constrained by initial conditions in March while the retreat season is influenced by the magnitude of several physical processes, in particular by the ice-albedo feedback and ice transport. Atmospheric feedbacks amplify the response of the winter ice extent to perturbations while some negative feedbacks related to heat conduction fluxes act on the ice volume.
Pepijn Bakker, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2523–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, 2022
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Natural climate variability plays an important role in the discussion of past and future climate change. Here we study centennial temperature variability and the role of large-scale ocean circulation variability using different climate models, geological reconstructions and temperature observations. Unfortunately, uncertainties in models and geological reconstructions are such that more research is needed before we can describe the characteristics of natural centennial temperature variability.
Guillian Van Achter, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, and Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
The Cryosphere, 16, 4745–4761, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, 2022
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We investigate the changes in ocean–ice interactions in the Totten Glacier area between the last decades (1995–2014) and the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) under warmer climate conditions. By the end of the 21st century, the sea ice is strongly reduced, and the ocean circulation close to the coast is accelerated. Our research highlights the importance of including representations of fast ice to simulate realistic ice shelf melt rate increase in East Antarctica under warming conditions.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Fanny Lhardy, Aurelien Quiquet, Didier Paillard, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-993, 2022
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
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The Last Deglaciation is a period of large warming from 21,000 to 9,000 years ago, concomitant with ice sheet melting. Here we evaluate the impact of different ice sheet reconstructions and different processes linked to their changes. Changes of bathymetry and coastlines, although not often accounted for, cannot be neglected. Ice sheet melt results in fresh water into the ocean with large effects on ocean circulation, but the timing cannot explain the observed abrupt climate changes.
Rashed Mahmood, Markus G. Donat, Pablo Ortega, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Margarida Samsó, and Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1437–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022, 2022
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Near-term climate change projections are strongly affected by the uncertainty from internal climate variability. Here we present a novel approach to reduce such uncertainty by constraining decadal-scale variability in the projections using observations. The constrained ensembles show significant added value over the unconstrained ensemble in predicting global climate 2 decades ahead. We also show the applicability of regional constraints for attributing predictability to certain ocean regions.
Nidheesh Gangadharan, Hugues Goosse, David Parkes, Heiko Goelzer, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1417–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, 2022
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We describe the contributions of ocean thermal expansion and land-ice melting (ice sheets and glaciers) to global-mean sea-level (GMSL) changes in the Common Era. The mass contributions are the major sources of GMSL changes in the pre-industrial Common Era and glaciers are the largest contributor. The paper also describes the current state of climate modelling, uncertainties and knowledge gaps along with the potential implications of the past variabilities in the contemporary sea-level rise.
Hugues Goosse, Sofia Allende Contador, Cecilia M. Bitz, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Clare Eayrs, Thierry Fichefet, Kenza Himmich, Pierre-Vincent Huot, François Klein, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Charles Pelletier, Lettie A. Roach, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-201, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-201, 2022
Preprint under review for TC
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Using idealized sensitivity experiments with a regional atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model, we show that the sea ice advance is constrained by initial conditions in March while the retreat season is influenced by the magnitude of several physical processes, in particular by the ice-albedo feedback and ice transport. Atmospheric feedbacks amplify the response of the winter ice extent to perturbations while some negative feedbacks related to heat conduction fluxes act on the ice volume.
Antony Siahaan, Robin S. Smith, Paul R. Holland, Adrian Jenkins, Jonathan M. Gregory, Victoria Lee, Pierre Mathiot, Antony J. Payne, Jeff K. Ridley, and Colin G. Jones
The Cryosphere, 16, 4053–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, 2022
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The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Under the low-greenhouse-gas SSP1–1.9 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario, the ice sheet remains stable over the 21st century. Under the strong-greenhouse-gas SSP5–8.5 scenario, the model predicts strong increases in melting of large ice shelves and snow accumulation on the surface. The dominance of accumulation leads to a sea level fall at the end of the century.
Jeff A. Polton, James Harle, Jason Holt, Anna Katavouta, Dale Partridge, Jenny Jardine, Sarah Wakelin, Julia Rulent, Anthony Wise, Katherine Hutchinson, David Byrne, Diego Bruciaferri, Enda O'Dea, Michela De Dominicis, Pierre Mathiot, Andrew Coward, Andrew Yool, Julien Palmieri, Gennadi Lessin, Gabriela Mayorga-Adame, Valerie Le Guennec, Alex Arnold, and Clement Rousset
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-217, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-217, 2022
Preprint under review for GMD
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The aim is to increase the capacity of the modelling community to respond to societally important questions that require ocean modelling. The concept of Reproducibility for regional ocean modelling is developed: advocating methods for reproducible workflows and standardised methods of assessment. Then, targeting the NEMO framework, we give practical advice and worked examples; highlighting key considerations that will expedite development cycle and up skill the community user community.
Koffi Worou, Thierry Fichefet, and Hugues Goosse
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-53, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-53, 2022
Preprint under review for WCD
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The Atlantic equatorial mode (AEM) of variability is responsible for 31 % of the year-to-year rainfall variability over the Guinea Coast. We use the current climate models to explore the present-day and future links between the AEM and the extreme rainfall indices over the Guinea Coast. Under future global warming, the total variability of the extreme rainfall indices increases over the Guinea Coast. However, the future impact of the AEM on the extreme events over the Guinea Coast is reduced.
Jeremy Carter, Amber Leeson, Andrew Orr, Christoph Kittel, and J. Melchior van Wessem
The Cryosphere, 16, 3815–3841, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022, 2022
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Climate models provide valuable information for studying processes such as the collapse of ice shelves over Antarctica which impact estimates of sea level rise. This paper examines variability across climate simulations over Antarctica for fields including snowfall, temperature and melt. Significant systematic differences between outputs are found, occurring at both large and fine spatial scales across Antarctica. Results are important for future impact assessments and model development.
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Hugues Goosse, and Joël Guiot
Clim. Past, 18, 2093–2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, 2022
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Using statistical tree-growth proxy system models in the data assimilation framework may have limitations. In this study, we successfully incorporate the process-based dendroclimatic model MAIDEN into a data assimilation procedure to robustly compare the outputs of an Earth system model with tree-ring width observations. Important steps are made to demonstrate that using MAIDEN as a proxy system model is a promising way to improve large-scale climate reconstructions with data assimilation.
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-55, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-55, 2022
Preprint under review for CP
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We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El-Niño Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Model. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data-assimilation found over many regions, in particular the tropics, north Atlantic and Europe and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
Núria Pérez-Zanón, Louis-Philippe Caron, Silvia Terzago, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Llorenç Lledó, Nicolau Manubens, Emmanuel Roulin, M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro, Lauriane Batté, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Susana Corti, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Marta Domínguez, Federico Fabiano, Ignazio Giuntoli, Jost von Hardenberg, Eroteida Sánchez-García, Verónica Torralba, and Deborah Verfaillie
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6115–6142, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6115-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6115-2022, 2022
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CSTools (short for Climate Service Tools) is an R package that contains process-based methods for climate forecast calibration, bias correction, statistical and stochastic downscaling, optimal forecast combination, and multivariate verification, as well as basic and advanced tools to obtain tailored products. In addition to describing the structure and methods in the package, we also present three use cases to illustrate the seasonal climate forecast post-processing for specific purposes.
Amélie Simon, Guillaume Gastineau, Claude Frankignoul, Vladimir Lapin, and Pablo Ortega
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 845–861, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-845-2022, 2022
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The influence of the Arctic sea-ice loss on atmospheric circulation in midlatitudes depends on persistent sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific. In winter, Arctic sea-ice loss and a warm North Pacific Ocean both induce depressions over the North Pacific and North Atlantic, an anticyclone over Greenland, and a stratospheric anticyclone over the Arctic. However, the effects are not additive as the interaction between both signals is slightly destructive.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Stefan Hofer, Cécile Agosta, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ella Gilbert, Louis Le Toumelin, Étienne Vignon, Hubert Gallée, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2655–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, 2022
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Model projections suggest large differences in future Antarctic surface melting even for similar greenhouse gas scenarios and warming rates. We show that clouds containing a larger amount of liquid water lead to stronger melt. As surface melt can trigger the collapse of the ice shelves (the safety band of the Antarctic Ice Sheet), clouds could be a major source of uncertainties in projections of sea level rise.
Koen Devesse, Luca Lanzilao, Sebastiaan Jamaer, Nicole van Lipzig, and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 1367–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1367-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1367-2022, 2022
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Recent research suggests that offshore wind farms might form such a large obstacle to the wind that it already decelerates before reaching the first turbines. Part of this phenomenon could be explained by gravity waves. Research on these gravity waves triggered by mountains and hills has found that variations in the atmospheric state with altitude can have a large effect on how they behave. This paper is the first to take the impact of those vertical variations into account for wind farms.
Xia Lin, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, and Martin Vancoppenolle
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-110, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-110, 2022
Revised manuscript under review for TC
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This study provides clues on how improved atmospheric reanalysis products influence sea ice simulations in ocean-sea ice models. The summer ice concentration simulation in both hemispheres can be improved with changed surface heat fluxes. The winter Antarctic ice concentration and the Arctic drift speed near the ice edge and the ice velocity direction simulations are improved with changed wind stress. The radiation fluxes and winds in atmospheric reanalyses are crucial for sea ice simulation.
Steve Delhaye, Thierry Fichefet, François Massonnet, David Docquier, Rym Msadek, Svenya Chripko, Christopher Roberts, Sarah Keeley, and Retish Senan
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 555–573, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022, 2022
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It is unclear how the atmosphere will respond to a retreat of summer Arctic sea ice. Much attention has been paid so far to weather extremes at mid-latitude and in winter. Here we focus on the changes in extremes in surface air temperature and precipitation over the Arctic regions in summer during and following abrupt sea ice retreats. We find that Arctic sea ice loss clearly shifts the extremes in surface air temperature and precipitation over terrestrial regions surrounding the Arctic Ocean.
Nicolas Ghilain, Stéphane Vannitsem, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Lesley De Cruz, and Wenguang Wei
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1901–1916, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, 2022
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Modeling the climate at high resolution is crucial to represent the snowfall accumulation over the complex orography of the Antarctic coast. While ice cores provide a view constrained spatially but over centuries, climate models can give insight into its spatial distribution, either at high resolution over a short period or vice versa. We downscaled snowfall accumulation from climate model historical simulations (1850–present day) over Dronning Maud Land at 5.5 km using a statistical method.
Matthieu Vernay, Matthieu Lafaysse, Diego Monteiro, Pascal Hagenmuller, Rafife Nheili, Raphaëlle Samacoïts, Deborah Verfaillie, and Samuel Morin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1707–1733, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1707-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1707-2022, 2022
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This paper introduces the latest version of the freely available S2M dataset which provides estimates of both meteorological and snow cover variables, as well as various avalanche hazard diagnostics at different elevations, slopes and aspects for the three main French high-elevation mountainous regions. A complete description of the system and the dataset is provided, as well as an overview of the possible uses of this dataset and an objective assessment of its limitations.
Sam White, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Davide Zanchettin, Heli Huhtamaa, Dagomar Degroot, Markus Stoffel, and Christophe Corona
Clim. Past, 18, 739–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-739-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-739-2022, 2022
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This study examines whether the 1600 Huaynaputina volcano eruption triggered persistent cooling in the North Atlantic. It compares previous paleoclimate simulations with new climate reconstructions from natural proxies and historical documents and finds that the reconstructions are consistent with, but do not support, an eruption trigger for persistent cooling. The study also analyzes societal impacts of climatic change in ca. 1600 and the use of historical observations in model–data comparison.
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
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The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
Clara Burgard, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ronja Reese, Adrian Jenkins, and Pierre Mathiot
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-32, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for TC
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The ocean-induced melt at the base the floating ice tongues (ice shelves) around Antarctica is the highest uncertainty factor in the Antarctic contribution to future sea level. We re-tune, assess and compare the performance of several existing parameterisations to simulate basal melt rates on a circum-Antarctic scale, using an ocean simulation resolving the sub-shelf cavities as our reference. We find that simple quadratic slope-independent and plume parameterisations yield the best compromise.
Nicolaj Hansen, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Fredrik Boberg, Christoph Kittel, Andrew Orr, Niels Souverijns, J. Melchior van Wessem, and Ruth Mottram
The Cryosphere, 16, 711–718, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-711-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-711-2022, 2022
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We investigate the impact of different ice masks when modelling surface mass balance over Antarctica. We used ice masks and data from five of the most used regional climate models and a common mask. We see large disagreement between the ice masks, which has a large impact on the surface mass balance, especially around the Antarctic Peninsula and some of the largest glaciers. We suggest a solution for creating a new, up-to-date, high-resolution ice mask that can be used in Antarctic modelling.
Koffi Worou, Hugues Goosse, Thierry Fichefet, and Fred Kucharski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, 2022
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Over the Guinea Coast, the increased rainfall associated with warm phases of the Atlantic Niño is reasonably well simulated by 24 climate models out of 31, for the present-day conditions. In a warmer climate, general circulation models project a gradual decrease with time of the rainfall magnitude associated with the Atlantic Niño for the 2015–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods. There is a higher confidence in these changes over the equatorial Atlantic than over the Guinea Coast.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Louis-Philippe Caron, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Oliver Gutjahr, Marie-Pierre Moine, Dian Putrasahan, Christopher D. Roberts, Malcolm J. Roberts, Retish Senan, Laurent Terray, Etienne Tourigny, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 269–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-269-2022, 2022
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Climate models do not fully reproduce observations: they show differences (biases) in regional temperature, precipitation, or cloud cover. Reducing model biases is important to increase our confidence in their ability to reproduce present and future climate changes. Model realism is set by its resolution: the finer it is, the more physical processes and interactions it can resolve. We here show that increasing resolution of up to ~ 25 km can help reduce model biases but not remove them entirely.
Thomas Kolb, Konrad Tudyka, Annette Kadereit, Johanna Lomax, Grzegorz Poręba, Anja Zander, Lars Zipf, and Markus Fuchs
Geochronology, 4, 1–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-1-2022, 2022
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The µDose system is an innovative analytical instrument developed for the cost- and time-efficient determination of environmental radionuclide concentrations required for the calculation of sedimentation ages in palaeo-environmental and geo-archaeological research. The results of our study suggest that accuracy and precision of µDose measurements are comparable to those of well-established methods and that the new approach shows the potential to become a standard tool in environmental dosimetry.
Xia Lin, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6331–6354, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6331-2021, 2021
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This study introduces a new Sea Ice Evaluation Tool (SITool) to evaluate the model skills on the bipolar sea ice simulations by providing performance metrics and diagnostics. SITool is applied to evaluate the CMIP6 OMIP simulations. By changing the atmospheric forcing from CORE-II to JRA55-do data, many aspects of sea ice simulations are improved. SITool will be useful for helping teams managing various versions of a sea ice model or tracking the time evolution of model performance.
Lander Van Tricht, Philippe Huybrechts, Jonas Van Breedam, Alexander Vanhulle, Kristof Van Oost, and Harry Zekollari
The Cryosphere, 15, 4445–4464, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4445-2021, 2021
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We conducted innovative research on the use of drones to determine the surface mass balance (SMB) of two glaciers. Considering appropriate spatial scales, we succeeded in determining the SMB in the ablation area with large accuracy. Consequently, we are convinced that our method and the use of drones to monitor the mass balance of a glacier’s ablation area can be an add-on to stake measurements in order to obtain a broader picture of the heterogeneity of the SMB of glaciers.
Camilla K. Crockart, Tessa R. Vance, Alexander D. Fraser, Nerilie J. Abram, Alison S. Criscitiello, Mark A. J. Curran, Vincent Favier, Ailie J. E. Gallant, Christoph Kittel, Helle A. Kjær, Andrew R. Klekociuk, Lenneke M. Jong, Andrew D. Moy, Christopher T. Plummer, Paul T. Vallelonga, Jonathan Wille, and Lingwei Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 1795–1818, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1795-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1795-2021, 2021
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We present preliminary analyses of the annual sea salt concentrations and snowfall accumulation in a new East Antarctic ice core, Mount Brown South. We compare this record with an updated Law Dome (Dome Summit South site) ice core record over the period 1975–2016. The Mount Brown South record preserves a stronger and inverse signal for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (in austral winter and spring) compared to the Law Dome record (in summer).
Ruth Mottram, Nicolaj Hansen, Christoph Kittel, J. Melchior van Wessem, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Fredrik Boberg, Willem Jan van de Berg, Xavier Fettweis, Alexandra Gossart, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Orr, Tony Phillips, Stuart Webster, Sebastian B. Simonsen, and Niels Souverijns
The Cryosphere, 15, 3751–3784, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, 2021
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We compare the calculated surface mass budget (SMB) of Antarctica in five different regional climate models. On average ~ 2000 Gt of snow accumulates annually, but different models vary by ~ 10 %, a difference equivalent to ± 0.5 mm of global sea level rise. All models reproduce observed weather, but there are large differences in regional patterns of snowfall, especially in areas with very few observations, giving greater uncertainty in Antarctic mass budget than previously identified.
Silje Lund Sørland, Roman Brogli, Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Emmanuele Russo, Jonas Van de Walle, Bodo Ahrens, Ivonne Anders, Edoardo Bucchignani, Edouard L. Davin, Marie-Estelle Demory, Alessandro Dosio, Hendrik Feldmann, Barbara Früh, Beate Geyer, Klaus Keuler, Donghyun Lee, Delei Li, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Seung-Ki Min, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Burkhardt Rockel, Christoph Schär, Christian Steger, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5125–5154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, 2021
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We review the contribution from the CLM-Community to regional climate projections following the CORDEX framework over Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. How the model configuration, horizontal and vertical resolutions, and choice of driving data influence the model results for the five domains is assessed, with the purpose of aiding the planning and design of regional climate simulations in the future.
Louis Le Toumelin, Charles Amory, Vincent Favier, Christoph Kittel, Stefan Hofer, Xavier Fettweis, Hubert Gallée, and Vinay Kayetha
The Cryosphere, 15, 3595–3614, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3595-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3595-2021, 2021
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Snow is frequently eroded from the surface by the wind in Adelie Land (Antarctica) and suspended in the lower atmosphere. By performing model simulations, we show firstly that suspended snow layers interact with incoming radiation similarly to a near-surface cloud. Secondly, suspended snow modifies the atmosphere's thermodynamic structure and energy exchanges with the surface. Our results suggest snow transport by the wind should be taken into account in future model studies over the region.
Thomas James Barnes, Amber Alexandra Leeson, Malcolm McMillan, Vincent Verjans, Jeremy Carter, and Christoph Kittel
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-214, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-214, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We find that the area covered by lakes on George VI ice shelf in 2020 is similar to that seen in other years such as 1989. However, the climate conditions are much more in favour of lakes forming. We find that it is likely that snowfall, and the build up of a surface snow layer limits the development of lakes on the surface of George VI ice shelf in 2020. We also find that in future, snowfall is predicted to decrease, and therefore this limiting effect may be reduced in future.
Tian Tian, Shuting Yang, Mehdi Pasha Karami, François Massonnet, Tim Kruschke, and Torben Koenigk
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4283–4305, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021, 2021
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Three decadal prediction experiments with EC-Earth3 are performed to investigate the impact of ocean, sea ice concentration and thickness initialization, respectively. We find that the persistence of perennial thick ice in the central Arctic can affect the sea ice predictability in its adjacent waters via advection process or wind, despite those regions being seasonally ice free during two recent decades. This has implications for the coming decades as the thinning of Arctic sea ice continues.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Roland Séférian, Charles Amory, Alison Delhasse, Sébastien Doutreloup, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Joris Van Bever, Florent Veillon, and Peter Irvine
The Cryosphere, 15, 3013–3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021, 2021
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Without any reduction in our greenhouse gas emissions, the Greenland ice sheet surface mass loss can be brought in line with a medium-mitigation emissions scenario by reducing the solar downward flux at the top of the atmosphere by 1.5 %. In addition to reducing global warming, these solar geoengineering measures also dampen the well-known positive melt–albedo feedback over the ice sheet by 6 %. However, only stronger reductions in solar radiation could maintain a stable ice sheet in 2100.
Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Louis Le Toumelin, Cécile Agosta, Alison Delhasse, Vincent Favier, and Xavier Fettweis
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3487–3510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3487-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3487-2021, 2021
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This paper presents recent developments in the drifting-snow scheme of the regional climate model MAR and its application to simulate drifting snow and the surface mass balance of Adélie Land in East Antarctica. The model is extensively described and evaluated against a multi-year drifting-snow dataset and surface mass balance estimates available in the area. The model sensitivity to input parameters and improvements over a previously published version are also assessed.
Pablo Ortega, Jon I. Robson, Matthew Menary, Rowan T. Sutton, Adam Blaker, Agathe Germe, Jöel J.-M. Hirschi, Bablu Sinha, Leon Hermanson, and Stephen Yeager
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-419-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-419-2021, 2021
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Deep Labrador Sea densities are receiving increasing attention because of their link to many of the processes that govern decadal climate oscillations in the North Atlantic and their potential use as a precursor of those changes. This article explores those links and how they are represented in global climate models, documenting the main differences across models. Models are finally compared with observational products to identify the ones that reproduce the links more realistically.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Cécile Agosta, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Stefan Hofer, Alison Delhasse, Sébastien Doutreloup, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Charlotte Lang, Thierry Fichefet, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 15, 1215–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021, 2021
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The future surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) will influence the ice dynamics and the contribution of the ice sheet to the sea level rise. We investigate the AIS sensitivity to different warmings using physical and statistical downscaling of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. Our results highlight a contrasting effect between the grounded ice sheet (where the SMB is projected to increase) and ice shelves (where the future SMB depends on the emission scenario).
Ann Keen, Ed Blockley, David A. Bailey, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Mitchell Bushuk, Steve Delhaye, David Docquier, Daniel Feltham, François Massonnet, Siobhan O'Farrell, Leandro Ponsoni, José M. Rodriguez, David Schroeder, Neil Swart, Takahiro Toyoda, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Klaus Wyser
The Cryosphere, 15, 951–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-951-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-951-2021, 2021
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We compare the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in a number of the latest climate models. New output has been defined that allows us to compare the processes of sea ice growth and loss in a more detailed way than has previously been possible. We find that that the models are strikingly similar in terms of the major processes causing the annual growth and loss of Arctic sea ice and that the budget terms respond in a broadly consistent way as the climate warms during the 21st century.
Roberto Bilbao, Simon Wild, Pablo Ortega, Juan Acosta-Navarro, Thomas Arsouze, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Louis-Philippe Caron, Miguel Castrillo, Rubén Cruz-García, Ivana Cvijanovic, Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Emanuel Dutra, Pablo Echevarría, An-Chi Ho, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Núria Pérez-Zanon, Arthur Ramos, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Valentina Sicardi, Etienne Tourigny, and Javier Vegas-Regidor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 173–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021, 2021
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This paper presents and evaluates a set of retrospective decadal predictions with the EC-Earth3 climate model. These experiments successfully predict past changes in surface air temperature but show poor predictive capacity in the subpolar North Atlantic, a well-known source region of decadal climate variability. The poor predictive capacity is linked to an initial shock affecting the Atlantic Ocean circulation, ultimately due to a suboptimal representation of the Labrador Sea density.
Marion Donat-Magnin, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Christoph Kittel, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Hubert Gallée, Gerhard Krinner, and Mondher Chekki
The Cryosphere, 15, 571–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021, 2021
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We simulate the West Antarctic climate in 2100 under increasing greenhouse gases. Future accumulation over the ice sheet increases, which reduces sea level changing rate. Surface ice-shelf melt rates increase until 2100. Some ice shelves experience a lot of liquid water at their surface, which indicates potential ice-shelf collapse. In contrast, no liquid water is found over other ice shelves due to huge amounts of snowfall that bury liquid water, favouring refreezing and ice-shelf stability.
Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, Marie G. P. Cavitte, and Liping Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 111–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, 2021
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Polynyas are ice-free oceanic areas within the sea ice pack. Small polynyas are regularly observed in the Southern Ocean, but large open-ocean polynyas have been rare over the past decades. Using records from available ice cores in Antarctica, we reconstruct past polynya activity and confirm that those events have also been rare over the past centuries, but the information provided by existing data is not sufficient to precisely characterize the timing of past polynya opening.
Qian Shi, Qinghua Yang, Longjiang Mu, Jinfei Wang, François Massonnet, and Matthew R. Mazloff
The Cryosphere, 15, 31–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-31-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-31-2021, 2021
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The ice thickness from four state-of-the-art reanalyses (GECCO2, SOSE, NEMO-EnKF and GIOMAS) are evaluated against that from remote sensing and in situ observations in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Most of the reanalyses can reproduce ice thickness in the central and eastern Weddell Sea but failed to capture the thick and deformed ice in the western Weddell Sea. These results demonstrate the possibilities and limitations of using current sea-ice reanalysis in Antarctic climate research.
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 4083–4102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, 2020
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Surface mass balance (SMB) and surface air temperature (SAT) are correlated at the regional scale for most of Antarctica, SMB and δ18O. Areas with low/no correlation are where wind processes (foehn, katabatic wind warming, and erosion) are sufficiently active to overwhelm the synoptic-scale snow accumulation. Measured in ice cores, the link between SMB, SAT, and δ18O is much weaker. Random noise can be removed by core record averaging but local processes perturb the correlation systematically.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
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We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Guillian Van Achter, Leandro Ponsoni, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, and Vincent Legat
The Cryosphere, 14, 3479–3486, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3479-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3479-2020, 2020
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We document the spatio-temporal internal variability of Arctic sea ice thickness and its changes under anthropogenic forcing, which is key to understanding, and eventually predicting, the evolution of sea ice in response to climate change.
The patterns of sea ice thickness variability remain more or less stable during pre-industrial, historical and future periods, despite non-stationarity on short timescales. These patterns start to change once Arctic summer ice-free events occur, after 2050.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, and François Massonnet
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4773–4787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4773-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4773-2020, 2020
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Climate models need to capture sea ice complexity to represent it realistically. Here we assess how distributing sea ice in discrete thickness categories impacts how sea ice variability is simulated in the NEMO3.6–LIM3 model. Simulations and satellite observations are compared by using k-means clustering of sea ice concentration in winter and summer between 1979 and 2014 at both poles. Little improvements in the modeled sea ice lead us to recommend using the standard number of five categories.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
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In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
David Parkes and Hugues Goosse
The Cryosphere, 14, 3135–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, 2020
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Direct records of glacier changes rarely go back more than the last 100 years and are few and far between. We used a sophisticated glacier model to simulate glacier length changes over the last 1000 years for those glaciers that we do have long-term records of, to determine whether the model can run in a stable, realistic way over a long timescale, reproducing recent observed trends. We find that post-industrial changes are larger than other changes in this time period driven by recent warming.
Zhiqiang Lyu, Anais J. Orsi, and Hugues Goosse
Clim. Past, 16, 1411–1428, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020, 2020
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This paper uses two different ways to perform model–data comparisons for the borehole temperature in Antarctica. The results suggest most models generally reproduce the long-term cooling in West Antarctica from 1000 to 1600 CE and the recent 50 years of warming in West Antarctica and Antarctic Peninsula. However, The 19th-century cooling in the Antarctic Peninsula (−0.94 °C) is not reproduced by any of the models, which tend to show warming instead.
Veronika Eyring, Lisa Bock, Axel Lauer, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Bouwe Andela, Enrico Arnone, Omar Bellprat, Björn Brötz, Louis-Philippe Caron, Nuno Carvalhais, Irene Cionni, Nicola Cortesi, Bas Crezee, Edouard L. Davin, Paolo Davini, Kevin Debeire, Lee de Mora, Clara Deser, David Docquier, Paul Earnshaw, Carsten Ehbrecht, Bettina K. Gier, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Paul Goodman, Stefan Hagemann, Steven Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Alasdair Hunter, Christopher Kadow, Stephan Kindermann, Sujan Koirala, Nikolay Koldunov, Quentin Lejeune, Valerio Lembo, Tomas Lovato, Valerio Lucarini, François Massonnet, Benjamin Müller, Amarjiit Pandde, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Adam Phillips, Valeriu Predoi, Joellen Russell, Alistair Sellar, Federico Serva, Tobias Stacke, Ranjini Swaminathan, Verónica Torralba, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Jost von Hardenberg, Katja Weigel, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3383–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020, 2020
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The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool designed to improve comprehensive and routine evaluation of earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). It has undergone rapid development since the first release in 2016 and is now a well-tested tool that provides end-to-end provenance tracking to ensure reproducibility.
Leandro Ponsoni, François Massonnet, David Docquier, Guillian Van Achter, and Thierry Fichefet
The Cryosphere, 14, 2409–2428, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2409-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2409-2020, 2020
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The continuous melting of the Arctic sea ice observed in the last decades has a significant impact at global and regional scales. To understand the amplitude and consequences of this impact, the monitoring of the total sea ice volume is crucial. However, in situ monitoring in such a harsh environment is hard to perform and far too expensive. This study shows that four well-placed sampling locations are sufficient to explain about 70 % of the inter-annual changes in the pan-Arctic sea ice volume.
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Hugues Goosse, Joël Guiot, Fabio Gennaretti, Etienne Boucher, Frédéric André, and Mathieu Jonard
Clim. Past, 16, 1043–1059, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1043-2020, 2020
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Tree rings are the main data source for climate reconstructions over the last millennium. Statistical tree-growth models have limitations that process-based models could overcome. Here, we investigate the possibility of using a process-based ecophysiological model (MAIDEN) as a complex proxy system model for palaeoclimate applications. We show its ability to simulate tree-growth index time series that can fit robustly tree-ring width observations under certain conditions.
Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 1187–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, 2020
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Large uncertainties remain in Antarctic surface temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Here, the analysis of climate model outputs reveals that snow accumulation is a more relevant proxy for surface temperature reconstructions than δ18O. We use this finding in data assimilation experiments to compare to observed surface temperatures. We show that our continental temperature reconstruction outperforms reconstructions based on δ18O, especially for East Antarctica.
Louis de Wergifosse, Frédéric André, Nicolas Beudez, François de Coligny, Hugues Goosse, François Jonard, Quentin Ponette, Hugues Titeux, Caroline Vincke, and Mathieu Jonard
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1459–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1459-2020, 2020
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Given their key role in the simulation of climate impacts on tree growth, phenological and water balance processes must be integrated in models simulating forest dynamics under a changing environment. Here, we describe these processes integrated in HETEROFOR, a model accounting simultaneously for the functional, structural and spatial complexity to explore the forest response to forestry practices. The model evaluation using phenological and soil water content observations is quite promising.
François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Mario Acosta, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, Eleftheria Exarchou, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1165–1178, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1165-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1165-2020, 2020
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Earth system models (ESMs) are one of the cornerstones of modern climate science. They are usually run on high-performance computers (HPCs). Whether the choice of HPC can affect the model results is a question of importance for optimizing the design of scientific studies. Here, we introduce a protocol for testing the replicability of the EC-Earth3 ESM across different HPCs. We find the simulation results to be replicable only if specific precautions are taken at the compilation stage.
Alison Delhasse, Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Stefan Hofer, Dirk van As, Robert S. Fausto, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 14, 957–965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-957-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-957-2020, 2020
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The ERA5 reanalysis of the ECMWF replaced the ERA-Interim in August 2019 and has never been evaluated over Greenland. The aim was to evaluate the performance of ERA5 to simulate the near-surface climate of the Greenland Ice sheet (GrIS) against ERA-Interim and regional climate models with the help of in situ observations from the PROMICE dataset. We also highlighted that polar regional climate models are still a useful tool to study the GrIS climate compared to ERA5.
Alison Delhasse, Edward Hanna, Christoph Kittel, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-332, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
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Significant melting events over Greenland ice sheet related to unusual atmospheric pattern in summer, as observed this summer 2019, are still not considered by the new generation of Earth-system models (CMIP6) and therefore the projected surface melt increase of the ice sheet is likely to be underestimated if such changes persist in the next decades.
Marion Donat-Magnin, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Hubert Gallée, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan D. Wille, Vincent Favier, Amine Drira, and Cécile Agosta
The Cryosphere, 14, 229–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-229-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-229-2020, 2020
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Modeling the interannual variability of the surface conditions over Antarctic glaciers is important for the identification of climate trends and climate predictions and to assess models. We simulate snow accumulation and surface melting in the Amundsen sector (West Antarctica) over 1979–2017. For all the glaciers, the interannual variability of summer snow accumulation and surface melting is driven by two distinct mechanisms related to variations in the Amundsen Sea Low strength and position.
Charles Amory and Christoph Kittel
The Cryosphere, 13, 3405–3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3405-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3405-2019, 2019
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Snow mass fluxes and vertical profiles of relative humidity are used to document concurrent occurrences of drifting snow and near-surface air saturation at a site dominated by katabatic winds in East Antarctica. Despite a high prevalence of drifting snow conditions, we demonstrate that saturation is reached only in the most extreme wind and transport conditions and discuss implications for the understanding of surface mass and atmospheric moisture budgets of the Antarctic ice sheet.
Maria Pyrina, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-50, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
François Massonnet, Antoine Barthélemy, Koffi Worou, Thierry Fichefet, Martin Vancoppenolle, Clément Rousset, and Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3745–3758, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3745-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3745-2019, 2019
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Sea ice thickness varies considerably on spatial scales of several meters. However, contemporary climate models cannot resolve such scales yet. This is why sea ice models used in climate models include an ice thickness distribution (ITD) to account for this unresolved variability. Here, we explore with the ocean–sea ice model NEMO3.6-LIM3 the sensitivity of simulated mean Arctic and Antarctic sea ice states to the way the ITD is discretized.
Andreas Plach, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Petra M. Langebroek, Andreas Born, and Sébastien Le clec'h
The Cryosphere, 13, 2133–2148, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2133-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2133-2019, 2019
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Meltwater from the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) rises sea level and knowing how the GrIS behaved in the past will help to become better in predicting its future. Here, the evolution of the past GrIS is shown to be dominated by how much ice melts (a result of the prevailing climate) rather than how ice flow is represented in the simulations. Therefore, it is very important to know past climates accurately, in order to be able to simulate the evolution of the GrIS and its contribution to sea level.
Christoph Heinze, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Colin Jones, Yves Balkanski, William Collins, Thierry Fichefet, Shuang Gao, Alex Hall, Detelina Ivanova, Wolfgang Knorr, Reto Knutti, Alexander Löw, Michael Ponater, Martin G. Schultz, Michael Schulz, Pier Siebesma, Joao Teixeira, George Tselioudis, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 379–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, 2019
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Earth system models for producing climate projections under given forcings include additional processes and feedbacks that traditional physical climate models do not consider. We present an overview of climate feedbacks for key Earth system components and discuss the evaluation of these feedbacks. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research.
Sébastien Le clec'h, Aurélien Quiquet, Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Masa Kageyama, and Catherine Ritz
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2481–2499, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2481-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2481-2019, 2019
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To provide reliable projections of the ice-sheet contribution to future sea-level rise, ice sheet models must be able to simulate the observed ice sheet present-day state. Using a low computational iterative minimisation procedure, based on the adjustment of the basal drag coefficient, we rapidly minimise the errors between the simulated and the observed Greenland ice thickness and ice velocity, and we succeed in stabilising the simulated Greenland ice sheet state under present-day conditions.
Sara Porchetta, Orkun Temel, Domingo Muñoz-Esparza, Joachim Reuder, Jaak Monbaliu, Jeroen van Beeck, and Nicole van Lipzig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6681–6700, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6681-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6681-2019, 2019
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Two-way feedback occurs between offshore wind and waves. Using an extensive data set of offshore measurements, we show that the wave roughness affecting the wind is dependent on the alignment between the wind and wave directions. Moreover, we propose a new roughness parameterization that takes into account the dependence on alignment. Using this in numerical models will facilitate a better representation of offshore wind, which is relevant to wind energy and and climate modeling.
Pierre Spandre, Hugues François, Deborah Verfaillie, Marc Pons, Matthieu Vernay, Matthieu Lafaysse, Emmanuelle George, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 13, 1325–1347, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1325-2019, 2019
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This study investigates the snow reliability of 175 ski resorts in the Pyrenees (France, Spain and Andorra) and the French Alps under past and future conditions (1950–2100) using state-of-the-art climate projections and snowpack modelling accounting for snow management, i.e. grooming and snowmaking. The snow reliability of ski resorts shows strong elevation and regional differences, and our study quantifies changes in snow reliability induced by snowmaking under various climate scenarios.
François Klein, Nerilie J. Abram, Mark A. J. Curran, Hugues Goosse, Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Andrew Moy, Raphael Neukom, Anaïs Orsi, Jesper Sjolte, Nathan Steiger, Barbara Stenni, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 15, 661–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, 2019
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Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia have been reconstructed from isotope records in ice cores in several studies. However, the link between both variables is complex. Here, we investigate the extent to which this affects the robustness of temperature reconstructions using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments. We show that the reconstruction skill is limited, especially at the regional scale, due to a weak and nonstationary covariance between δ18O and temperature.
Chris S. M. Turney, Helen V. McGregor, Pierre Francus, Nerilie Abram, Michael N. Evans, Hugues Goosse, Lucien von Gunten, Darrell Kaufman, Hans Linderholm, Marie-France Loutre, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 15, 611–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, 2019
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This PAGES (Past Global Changes) 2k (climate of the past 2000 years working group) special issue of Climate of the Past brings together the latest understanding of regional change and impacts from PAGES 2k groups across a range of proxies and regions. The special issue has emerged from a need to determine the magnitude and rate of change of regional and global climate beyond the timescales accessible within the observational record.
Florentin Lemonnier, Jean-Baptiste Madeleine, Chantal Claud, Christophe Genthon, Claudio Durán-Alarcón, Cyril Palerme, Alexis Berne, Niels Souverijns, Nicole van Lipzig, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Tristan L'Ecuyer, and Norman Wood
The Cryosphere, 13, 943–954, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-943-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-943-2019, 2019
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Evaluation of the vertical precipitation rate profiles of CloudSat radar by comparison with two surface-based micro-rain radars (MRR) located at two antarctic stations gives a near-perfect correlation between both datasets, even though climatic and geographic conditions are different for the stations. A better understanding and reassessment of CloudSat uncertainties ranging from −13 % up to +22 % confirms the robustness of the CloudSat retrievals of snowfall over Antarctica.
Alexandra Gossart, Stephen P. Palm, Niels Souverijns, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Stef Lhermitte, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-25, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-25, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Blowing snow measurements are scarce, both in time and space over the Antarctic ice sheet. We compare here CALIPSO satellite blowing snow measurements, to ground-base remote sensing ceilometer retrievals at two coastal stations in East Antarctica. Results indicate that 95 % of the blowing snow occurs under cloudy conditions, and are missed by the satellite. In addition, difficulties arise if comparing point locations to satellite overpasses.
Leandro Ponsoni, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, Matthieu Chevallier, and David Docquier
The Cryosphere, 13, 521–543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-521-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-521-2019, 2019
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The Arctic is a main component of the Earth's climate system. It is fundamental to understand the behavior of Arctic sea ice coverage over time and in space due to many factors, e.g., shipping lanes, the travel and tourism industry, hunting and fishing activities, mineral resource extraction, and the potential impact on the weather in midlatitude regions. In this work we use observations and results from models to understand how variations in the sea ice thickness change over time and in space.
Sébastien Le clec'h, Sylvie Charbit, Aurélien Quiquet, Xavier Fettweis, Christophe Dumas, Masa Kageyama, Coraline Wyard, and Catherine Ritz
The Cryosphere, 13, 373–395, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-373-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-373-2019, 2019
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Quantifying the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea-level rise in response to atmospheric changes is important but remains challenging. For the first time a full representation of the feedbacks between a GrIS model and a regional atmospheric model was implemented. The authors highlight the fundamental need for representing the GrIS topography change feedbacks with respect to the atmospheric component face to the strong impact on the projected sea-level rise.
Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Anais Orsi, Vincent Favier, Hubert Gallée, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Jan Melchior van Wessem, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 13, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019
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Antarctic surface mass balance (ASMB), a component of the sea level budget, is commonly estimated through modelling as observations are scarce. The polar-oriented regional climate model MAR performs well in simulating the observed ASMB. MAR and RACMO2 share common biases we relate to drifting snow transport, with a 3 times larger magnitude than in previous estimates. Sublimation of precipitation in the katabatic layer modelled by MAR is of a magnitude similar to an observation-based estimate.
Claudio Durán-Alarcón, Brice Boudevillain, Christophe Genthon, Jacopo Grazioli, Niels Souverijns, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, and Alexis Berne
The Cryosphere, 13, 247–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-247-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-247-2019, 2019
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Precipitation is the main input in the surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet, but it is still poorly understood due to a lack of observations in this region. We analyzed the vertical structure of the precipitation using multiyear observation of vertically pointing micro rain radars (MRRs) at two stations located in East Antarctica. The use of MRRs showed the potential to study the effect of climatology and hydrometeor microphysics on the vertical structure of Antarctic precipitation.
Marion Lebrun, Martin Vancoppenolle, Gurvan Madec, and François Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 13, 79–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-79-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-79-2019, 2019
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The present analysis shows that the increase in the Arctic ice-free season duration will be asymmetrical, with later autumn freeze-up contributing about twice as much as earlier spring retreat. This feature is robustly found in a hierarchy of climate models and is consistent with a simple mechanism: solar energy is absorbed more efficiently than it can be released in non-solar form and should emerge out of variability within the next few decades.
Gabriel Gerard Rooney, Nicole van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6357–6369, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6357-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6357-2018, 2018
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This paper uses a unique observational dataset of a tropical African lake (L. Kivu) to assess the effect of rain on lake surface temperature. Data from 4 years were categorised by daily rain amount and total net radiation to show that heavy rain may reduce the end-of-day lake temperature by about 0.3 K. This is important since lake surface temperature may influence local weather on short timescales, but the effect of rain on lake temperature has been little studied or parametrised previously.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Cécile Agosta, Alison Delhasse, Sébastien Doutreloup, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Coraline Wyard, Thierry Fichefet, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 12, 3827–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3827-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3827-2018, 2018
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Regional climate models (RCMs) used to estimate the surface mass balance (SMB) of Antarctica depend on boundary forcing fields including sea surface conditions. Here, we assess the sensitivity of the Antarctic SMB to perturbations in sea surface conditions with the RCM MAR using unchanged atmospheric conditions. Significant SMB anomalies are found for SSC perturbations in the range of CMIP5 global climate model biases.
Niels Souverijns, Alexandra Gossart, Stef Lhermitte, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Jacopo Grazioli, Alexis Berne, Claudio Duran-Alarcon, Brice Boudevillain, Christophe Genthon, Claudio Scarchilli, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 12, 3775–3789, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3775-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3775-2018, 2018
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Snowfall observations over Antarctica are scarce and currently limited to information from the CloudSat satellite. Here, a first evaluation of the CloudSat snowfall record is performed using observations of ground-based precipitation radars. Results indicate an accurate representation of the snowfall climatology over Antarctica, despite the low overpass frequency of the satellite, outperforming state-of-the-art model estimates. Individual snowfall events are however not well represented.
Alison Delhasse, Xavier Fettweis, Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, and Cécile Agosta
The Cryosphere, 12, 3409–3418, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3409-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3409-2018, 2018
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Since the 2000s, an atmospheric circulation change (CC) gauged by a negative summer shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation has been observed, enhancing surface melt over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Future GrIS surface mass balance (SMB) projections are based on global climate models that do not represent this CC. The model MAR has been used to show that previous estimates of these projections could have been significantly overestimated if this current circulation pattern persists.
Inne Vanderkelen, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5509–5525, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5509-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5509-2018, 2018
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Lake Victoria is the largest lake in Africa and one of the two major sources of the Nile river. The water level of Lake Victoria is determined by its water balance, consisting of lake precipitation and evaporation, inflow from rivers and lake outflow, controlled by two hydropower dams. Here, we present a water balance model for Lake Victoria, which closely represents the observed lake levels. The model results highlight the sensitivity of the lake level to human operations at the dam.
Inne Vanderkelen, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5527–5549, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5527-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5527-2018, 2018
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Lake Victoria is the second largest freshwater lake in the world and one of the major sources of the Nile River, which is controlled by two hydropower dams. In this paper we estimate the potential consequences of climate change for future water level fluctuations of Lake Victoria. Our results reveal that the operating strategies at the dam are the main controlling factors of future lake levels and that regional climate simulations used in the projections encompass large uncertainties.
Andreas Plach, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Sébastien Le clec'h, Andreas Born, Petra M. Langebroek, Chuncheng Guo, Michael Imhof, and Thomas F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 14, 1463–1485, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1463-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1463-2018, 2018
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The Greenland ice sheet is a huge frozen water reservoir which is crucial for predictions of sea level in a warming future climate. Therefore, computer models are needed to reliably simulate the melt of ice sheets. In this study, we use climate model simulations of the last period where it was warmer than today in Greenland. We test different melt models under these climatic conditions and show that the melt models show very different results under these warmer conditions.
Hugues Goosse, Pierre-Yves Barriat, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Ben Marzeion, Fabien Maussion, Paolo Pelucchi, and Anouk Vlug
Clim. Past, 14, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, 2018
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Glaciers provide iconic illustrations of past climate change, but records of glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically to test the ability of models to reproduce past changes. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be simply linked to the climate simulated by models. This is done here, and it is shown that the observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations.
Niels Souverijns, Alexandra Gossart, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Stef Lhermitte, Alexander Mangold, Quentin Laffineur, Andy Delcloo, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 12, 1987–2003, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1987-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1987-2018, 2018
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This work is the first to gain insight into the local surface mass balance over Antarctica using accurate long-term snowfall observations. A non-linear relationship between accumulation and snowfall is discovered, indicating that total surface mass balance measurements are not a good proxy for snowfall over Antarctica. Furthermore, the meteorological drivers causing changes in the local SMB are identified.
Konstanze Haubner, Jason E. Box, Nicole J. Schlegel, Eric Y. Larour, Mathieu Morlighem, Anne M. Solgaard, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Signe H. Larsen, Eric Rignot, Todd K. Dupont, and Kurt H. Kjær
The Cryosphere, 12, 1511–1522, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1511-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1511-2018, 2018
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We investigate the effect of neglecting calving on Upernavik Isstrøm, West Greenland, between 1849 and 2012.
Our simulation is forced with observed terminus positions in discrete time steps and is responsive to the prescribed ice front changes.
Simulated frontal retreat is needed to obtain a realistic ice surface elevation and velocity evolution of Upernavik.
Using the prescribed terminus position change we gain insight to mass loss partitioning during different time periods.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Tamsin Edwards, Matthew Beckley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Reinhard Calov, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan Gregory, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Joseph H. Kennedy, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Sébastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Christian Rodehacke, Martin Rückamp, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Roderik van de Wal, and Florian A. Ziemen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018
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We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
Feng Shi, Sen Zhao, Zhengtang Guo, Hugues Goosse, and Qiuzhen Yin
Clim. Past, 13, 1919–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017, 2017
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We reconstructed the multi-proxy precipitation field for China over the past 500 years, which includes three leading modes (a monopole, a dipole, and a triple) of precipitation variability. The dipole mode may be controlled by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability. Such reconstruction is an essential source of information to document the climate variability over decadal to centennial timescales and can be used to assess the ability of climate models to simulate past climate change.
Kristina Seftigen, Hugues Goosse, Francois Klein, and Deliang Chen
Clim. Past, 13, 1831–1850, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, 2017
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Comparisons of proxy data to GCM-simulated hydroclimate are still limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterized. In this study, we bring together tree-ring paleoclimate evidence and CMIP5–PMIP3 model simulations of the last millennium hydroclimate variability across Scandinavia. We explore the consistency between the datasets and the role of external forcing versus internal variability in driving the hydroclimate changes regionally.
David Docquier, François Massonnet, Antoine Barthélemy, Neil F. Tandon, Olivier Lecomte, and Thierry Fichefet
The Cryosphere, 11, 2829–2846, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2829-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2829-2017, 2017
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Our study provides a new way to evaluate the performance of a climate model regarding the interplay between sea ice motion, area and thickness in the Arctic against different observation datasets. We show that the NEMO-LIM model is good in that respect and that the relationships between the different sea ice variables are complex. The metrics we developed can be used in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6), which will feed the next IPCC report.
Alexandra Gossart, Niels Souverijns, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Stef Lhermitte, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Jan H. Schween, Alexander Mangold, Quentin Laffineur, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 11, 2755–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2755-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2755-2017, 2017
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Blowing snow plays an important role on local surface mass balance of Antarctica. We present here the blowing snow detection algorithm, to retrieve blowing snow occurrence from the attenuated backscatter signal of ceilometers set up at two station. There is a good correspondence in detection of heavy blowing snow by the algorithm and the visual observations performed at Neumayer station. Moreover, most of the blowing snow occurs during events bringing precipitation from the coast inland.
Barbara Stenni, Mark A. J. Curran, Nerilie J. Abram, Anais Orsi, Sentia Goursaud, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Raphael Neukom, Hugues Goosse, Dmitry Divine, Tas van Ommen, Eric J. Steig, Daniel A. Dixon, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Elisabeth Isaksson, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, and Massimo Frezzotti
Clim. Past, 13, 1609–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, 2017
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Within PAGES Antarctica2k, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records. We produce isotopic composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE for seven distinct Antarctic regions. We find a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all regions. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for three regions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of last-2000-year natural variability.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
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Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Xavier Fettweis, Jason E. Box, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Dirk van As, Horst Machguth, and Hubert Gallée
The Cryosphere, 11, 1015–1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1015-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1015-2017, 2017
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This paper shows that the surface melt increase over the Greenland ice sheet since the end of the 1990s has been unprecedented, with respect to the last 120 years, using a regional climate model. These simulations also suggest an increase of the snowfall accumulation through the last century before a surface mass decrease in the 2000s. Such a mass gain could have impacted the ice sheet's dynamic stability and could explain the recent observed increase of the glaciers' velocity.
Chris S.~M. Turney, Andrew Klekociuk, Christopher J. Fogwill, Violette Zunz, Hugues Goosse, Claire L. Parkinson, Gilbert Compo, Matthew Lazzara, Linda Keller, Rob Allan, Jonathan G. Palmer, Graeme Clark, and Ezequiel Marzinelli
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We demonstrate that a mid-twentieth century decrease in geopotential height in the southwest Pacific marks a Rossby wave response to equatorial Pacific warming, leading to enhanced easterly airflow off George V Land. Our results suggest that in contrast to ozone hole-driven changes in the Amundsen Sea, the 1979–2015 increase in sea ice extent off George V Land may be in response to reduced northward Ekman drift and enhanced (near-coast) production as a consequence of low latitude forcing.
Chris S. M. Turney, Christopher J. Fogwill, Jonathan G. Palmer, Erik van Sebille, Zoë Thomas, Matt McGlone, Sarah Richardson, Janet M. Wilmshurst, Pavla Fenwick, Violette Zunz, Hugues Goosse, Kerry-Jayne Wilson, Lionel Carter, Mathew Lipson, Richard T. Jones, Melanie Harsch, Graeme Clark, Ezequiel Marzinelli, Tracey Rogers, Eleanor Rainsley, Laura Ciasto, Stephanie Waterman, Elizabeth R. Thomas, and Martin Visbeck
Clim. Past, 13, 231–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-231-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-231-2017, 2017
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The Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in global climate but suffers from a dearth of observational data. As the Australasian Antarctic Expedition 2013–2014 we have developed the first annually resolved temperature record using trees from subantarctic southwest Pacific (52–54˚S) to extend the climate record back to 1870. With modelling we show today's high climate variability became established in the ~1940s and likely driven by a Rossby wave response originating from the tropical Pacific.
Heiko Goelzer, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-France Loutre, and Thierry Fichefet
Clim. Past, 12, 2195–2213, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2195-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2195-2016, 2016
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We simulate the climate, ice sheet, and sea-level evolution during the Last Interglacial (~ 130 to 115 kyr BP), the most recent warm period in Earth’s history. Our Earth system model includes components representing the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the terrestrial biosphere, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Our simulation is in good agreement with available data reconstructions and gives important insights into the dominant mechanisms that caused ice sheet changes in the past.
Kristof Van Tricht, Stef Lhermitte, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 10, 2379–2397, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2379-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2379-2016, 2016
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Despite the crucial role of polar regions in the global climate system, the limited availability of observations on the ground hampers a detailed understanding of their energy budget. Here we develop a method to use satellites to fill these observational gaps. We show that by sampling satellite observations in a smart way, coverage is greatly enhanced. We conclude that this method might help improve our understanding of the polar energy budget, and ultimately its effects on the global climate.
Dirk Notz, Alexandra Jahn, Marika Holland, Elizabeth Hunke, François Massonnet, Julienne Stroeve, Bruno Tremblay, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3427–3446, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3427-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3427-2016, 2016
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The large-scale evolution of sea ice is both an indicator and a driver of climate changes. Hence, a realistic simulation of sea ice is key for a realistic simulation of the climate system of our planet. To assess and to improve the realism of sea-ice simulations, we present here a new protocol for climate-model output that allows for an in-depth analysis of the simulated evolution of sea ice.
Hossein Tabari, Rozemien De Troch, Olivier Giot, Rafiq Hamdi, Piet Termonia, Sajjad Saeed, Erwan Brisson, Nicole Van Lipzig, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3843–3857, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3843-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3843-2016, 2016
Hendrik Wouters, Matthias Demuzere, Ulrich Blahak, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Bino Maiheu, Johan Camps, Daniël Tielemans, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3027–3054, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3027-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3027-2016, 2016
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A methodology is presented for translating three-dimensional information of urban areas into land-surface parameters that can be easily employed in atmospheric modelling. As demonstrated with the COSMO-CLM model for a Belgian summer, it enables them to represent urban heat islands and their dependency on urban design with a low computational cost. It allows for efficiently incorporating urban information systems (e.g., WUDAPT) into climate change assessment and numerical weather prediction.
Heiko Goelzer, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-France Loutre, and Thierry Fichefet
Clim. Past, 12, 1721–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1721-2016, 2016
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We have modelled the climate evolution from 135 to 120 kyr BP with an Earth system model to study the onset of the Last Interglacial warm period. Ice sheet changes and associated freshwater fluxes in both hemispheres constitute an important forcing in the simulations. Freshwater fluxes from the melting Antarctic ice sheet are found to lead to an oceanic cold event in the Southern Ocean as evidenced in some ocean sediment cores, which may be used to constrain the timing of ice sheet retreat.
François Klein, Hugues Goosse, Nicholas E. Graham, and Dirk Verschuren
Clim. Past, 12, 1499–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, 2016
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This paper analyses global climate model simulations of long-term East African hydroclimate changes relative to proxy-based reconstructions over the last millennium. No common signal is found between model results and reconstructions as well as among the model time series, which suggests that simulated hydroclimate is mostly driven by internal variability rather than by common external forcing.
C. Rousset, M. Vancoppenolle, G. Madec, T. Fichefet, S. Flavoni, A. Barthélemy, R. Benshila, J. Chanut, C. Levy, S. Masson, and F. Vivier
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2991–3005, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2991-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2991-2015, 2015
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LIM3.6 presented in this paper is the last release of the Louvain-la-Neuve sea ice model, and will be used for the next climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6). The model's robustness, versatility and sophistication have been improved.
V. Zunz and H. Goosse
The Cryosphere, 9, 541–556, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-541-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-541-2015, 2015
I. V. Gorodetskaya, S. Kneifel, M. Maahn, K. Van Tricht, W. Thiery, J. H. Schween, A. Mangold, S. Crewell, and N. P. M. Van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 9, 285–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-285-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-285-2015, 2015
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Our paper presents a new cloud-precipitation-meteorological observatory established in the escarpment zone of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. The site is characterised by bimodal cloud occurrence (clear sky or overcast) with liquid-containing clouds occurring 20% of the cloudy periods. Local surface mass balance strongly depends on rare intense snowfall events. A substantial part of the accumulated snow is removed by surface and drifting snow sublimation and wind-driven snow erosion.
M. F. Loutre, T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, P. Huybrechts, H. Goelzer, and E. Capron
Clim. Past, 10, 1541–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, 2014
P. J. Hezel, T. Fichefet, and F. Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 8, 1195–1204, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1195-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1195-2014, 2014
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, 2014
K. Van Tricht, I. V. Gorodetskaya, S. Lhermitte, D. D. Turner, J. H. Schween, and N. P. M. Van Lipzig
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 1153–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-1153-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-1153-2014, 2014
H. Goosse and V. Zunz
The Cryosphere, 8, 453–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-453-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-453-2014, 2014
W. Thiery, A. Martynov, F. Darchambeau, J.-P. Descy, P.-D. Plisnier, L. Sushama, and N. P. M. van Lipzig
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 317–337, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-317-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-317-2014, 2014
A. Mairesse, H. Goosse, P. Mathiot, H. Wanner, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 2741–2757, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2741-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2741-2013, 2013
S. Dubinkina and H. Goosse
Clim. Past, 9, 1141–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1141-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1141-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
P. Mathiot, H. Goosse, X. Crosta, B. Stenni, M. Braida, H. Renssen, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Mairesse, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 887–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, 2013
M. Casado, P. Ortega, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Swingedouw, V. Daux, D. Genty, F. Maignan, O. Solomina, B. Vinther, N. Viovy, and P. Yiou
Clim. Past, 9, 871–886, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-871-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-871-2013, 2013
V. Zunz, H. Goosse, and F. Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 7, 451–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013, 2013
P. Ortega, M. Montoya, F. González-Rouco, H. Beltrami, and D. Swingedouw
Clim. Past, 9, 547–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-547-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-547-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Climate and Earth system modeling
Implementation and evaluation of the GEOS-Chem chemistry module version 13.1.2 within the Community Earth System Model v2.1
Assessment of JSBACHv4.30 as a land component of ICON-ESM-V1 in comparison to its predecessor JSBACHv3.2 of MPI-ESM1.2
Global biomass burning fuel consumption and emissions at 500 m spatial resolution based on the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED)
Impact of increased resolution on the representation of the Canary upwelling system in climate models
Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar climate intervention on the Earth system with stratospheric aerosol injection (ARISE-SAI): protocol and initial results from the first simulations
Introducing the VIIRS-based Fire Emission Inventory version 0 (VFEIv0)
Impact of physical parameterizations on wind simulation with WRF V3.9.1.1 under stable conditions at planetary boundary layer gray-zone resolution: a case study over the coastal regions of North China
Advancing precipitation prediction using a new-generation storm-resolving model framework – SIMA-MPAS (V1.0): a case study over the western United States
SURFER v2.0: a flexible and simple model linking anthropogenic CO2 emissions and solar radiation modification to ocean acidification and sea level rise
A new bootstrap technique to quantify uncertainty in estimates of ground surface temperature and ground heat flux histories from geothermal data
Modeling the topographic influence on aboveground biomass using a coupled model of hillslope hydrology and ecosystem dynamics
Impacts of the ice-particle size distribution shape parameter on climate simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model Version 6 (CAM6)
A modeling framework to understand historical and projected ocean climate change in large coupled ensembles
TriCCo v1.1.0 – a cubulation-based method for computing connected components on triangular grids
Estimation of missing building height in OpenStreetMap data: a French case study using GeoClimate 0.0.1
The Moist Quasi-Geostrophic Coupled Model: MQ-GCM 2.0
Transport parameterization of the Polar SWIFT model (version 2)
Analog data assimilation for the selection of suitable general circulation models
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate-risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.0
Grid refinement in ICON v2.6.4
Classification of tropical cyclone containing images using a convolutional neural network: performance and sensitivity to the learning dataset
The ICON-A model for direct QBO simulations on GPUs (version icon-cscs:baf28a514)
Further improvement and evaluation of nudging in the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1): simulations of the mean climate, weather events, and anthropogenic aerosol effects
HORAYZON v1.2: an efficient and flexible ray-tracing algorithm to compute horizon and sky view factor
LPJ-GUESS/LSMv1.0: a next-generation land surface model with high ecological realism
Downscaling multi-model climate projection ensembles with deep learning (DeepESD): contribution to CORDEX EUR-44
Intercomparison of four algorithms for detecting tropical cyclones using ERA5
Inland lake temperature initialization via coupled cycling with atmospheric data assimilation
wavetrisk-2.1: an adaptive dynamical core for ocean modelling
Representing surface heterogeneity in land–atmosphere coupling in E3SMv1 single-column model over ARM SGP during summertime
AWI-CM3 coupled climate model: description and evaluation experiments for a prototype post-CMIP6 model
The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2
Pathfinder v1.0: a Bayesian-inferred simple carbon-climate model to explore climate change scenarios
Comparison and evaluation of updates to WRF-Chem (v3.9) biogenic emissions using MEGAN
Checkerboard patterns in E3SMv2 and E3SM-MMFv2
MIdASv0.2.1 – MultI-scale bias AdjuStment
FOCI-MOPS v1 – integration of marine biogeochemistry within the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure version 1 (FOCI 1) Earth system model
Assessment of the Paris urban heat island in ERA5 and offline SURFEX-TEB (v8.1) simulations using the METEOSAT land surface temperature product
The Earth system model CLIMBER-X v1.0 – Part 1: Climate model description and validation
Cloud-based framework for inter-comparing submesoscale-permitting realistic ocean models
swNEMO_v4.0: an ocean model based on NEMO4 for the new-generation Sunway supercomputer
Embedding a one-column ocean model in the Community Atmosphere Model 5.3 to improve Madden–Julian Oscillation simulation in boreal winter
Introducing new lightning schemes into the CHASER (MIROC) chemistry–climate model
The CMCC Decadal Prediction System
Improving Madden–Julian oscillation simulation in atmospheric general circulation models by coupling with a one-dimensional snow–ice–thermocline ocean model
Inclusion of a cold hardening scheme to represent frost tolerance is essential to model realistic plant hydraulics in the Arctic-Boreal Zone in CLM5.0-FATES-Hydro
Atmospheric river representation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1.0
Root-mean-square error (RMSE) or mean absolute error (MAE): when to use them or not
Spatial heterogeneity effects on land surface modeling of water and energy partitioning
Computation of longwave radiative flux and vertical heating rate with 4A-Flux v1.0 as an integral part of the radiative transfer code 4A/OP v1.5
Thibaud M. Fritz, Sebastian D. Eastham, Louisa K. Emmons, Haipeng Lin, Elizabeth W. Lundgren, Steve Goldhaber, Steven R. H. Barrett, and Daniel J. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8669–8704, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8669-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8669-2022, 2022
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We bring the state-of-the-science chemistry module GEOS-Chem into the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We show that some known differences between results from GEOS-Chem and CESM's CAM-chem chemistry module may be due to the configuration of model meteorology rather than inherent differences in the model chemistry. This is a significant step towards a truly modular Earth system model and allows two strong but currently separate research communities to benefit from each other's advances.
Rainer Schneck, Veronika Gayler, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Thomas Raddatz, Christian H. Reick, and Reiner Schnur
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8581–8611, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8581-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8581-2022, 2022
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The versions of ICON-A and ICON-Land/JSBACHv4 used for this study constitute the first milestone in the development of the new ICON Earth System Model ICON-ESM. JSBACHv4 is the successor of JSBACHv3, and most of the parameterizations of JSBACHv4 are re-implementations from JSBACHv3. We assess and compare the performance of JSBACHv4 and JSBACHv3. Overall, the JSBACHv4 results are as good as JSBACHv3, but both models reveal the same main shortcomings, e.g. the depiction of the leaf area index.
Dave van Wees, Guido R. van der Werf, James T. Randerson, Brendan M. Rogers, Yang Chen, Sander Veraverbeke, Louis Giglio, and Douglas C. Morton
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8411–8437, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8411-2022, 2022
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We present a global fire emission model based on the GFED model framework with a spatial resolution of 500 m. The higher resolution allowed for a more detailed representation of spatial heterogeneity in fuels and emissions. Specific modules were developed to model, for example, emissions from fire-related forest loss and belowground burning. Results from the 500 m model were compared to GFED4s, showing that global emissions were relatively similar but that spatial differences were substantial.
Adama Sylla, Emilia Sanchez Gomez, Juliette Mignot, and Jorge López-Parages
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8245–8267, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8245-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8245-2022, 2022
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Increasing model resolution depends on the subdomain of the Canary upwelling considered. In the Iberian Peninsula, the high-resolution (HR) models do not seem to better simulate the upwelling indices, while in Morocco to the Senegalese coast, the HR models show a clear improvement. Thus increasing the resolution of a global climate model does not necessarily have to be the only way to better represent the climate system. There is still much work to be done in terms of physical parameterizations.
Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, David A. Bailey, Nan Rosenbloom, Brian Dobbins, Walker R. Lee, Mari Tye, and Jean-Francois Lamarque
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8221–8243, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, 2022
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Solar climate intervention using stratospheric aerosol injection is a proposed method of reducing global mean temperatures to reduce the worst consequences of climate change. We present a new modeling protocol aimed at simulating a plausible deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection and reproducibility of simulations using other Earth system models: Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar climate intervention on the Earth system with stratospheric aerosol injection (ARISE-SAI).
Gonzalo A. Ferrada, Meng Zhou, Jun Wang, Alexei Lyapustin, Yujie Wang, Saulo R. Freitas, and Gregory R. Carmichael
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8085–8109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8085-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8085-2022, 2022
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The smoke from fires is composed of different compounds that interact with the atmosphere and can create poor air-quality episodes. Here, we present a new fire inventory based on satellite observations from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). We named this inventory the VIIRS-based Fire Emission Inventory (VFEI). Advantages of VFEI are its high resolution (~500 m) and that it provides information for many species. VFEI is publicly available and has provided data since 2012.
Entao Yu, Rui Bai, Xia Chen, and Lifang Shao
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8111–8134, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8111-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8111-2022, 2022
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A large number of simulations are conducted to investigate how different physical parameterization schemes impact surface wind simulations under stable weather conditions over the coastal regions of North China using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with a horizontal grid spacing of 0.5 km. Results indicate that the simulated wind speed is most sensitive to the planetary boundary layer schemes, followed by short-wave/long-wave radiation schemes and microphysics schemes.
Xingying Huang, Andrew Gettelman, William C. Skamarock, Peter Hjort Lauritzen, Miles Curry, Adam Herrington, John T. Truesdale, and Michael Duda
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8135–8151, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8135-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8135-2022, 2022
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We focus on the recent development of a state-of-the-art storm-resolving global climate model and investigate how this next-generation model performs for precipitation prediction over the western USA. Results show realistic representations of precipitation with significantly enhanced snowpack over complex terrains. The model evaluation advances the unified modeling of large-scale forcing constraints and realistic fine-scale features to advance multi-scale climate predictions and changes.
Marina Martínez Montero, Michel Crucifix, Victor Couplet, Nuria Brede, and Nicola Botta
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8059–8084, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022, 2022
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We present SURFER, a lightweight model that links CO2 emissions and geoengineering to ocean acidification and sea level rise from glaciers, ocean thermal expansion and Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The ice sheet module adequately describes the tipping points of both Greenland and Antarctica. SURFER is understandable, fast, accurate up to several thousands of years, capable of emulating results obtained by state of the art models and well suited for policy analyses.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Stephan Gruber, Almudena García-García, and J. Fidel González-Rouco
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7913–7932, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022, 2022
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Inversions of subsurface temperature profiles provide past long-term estimates of ground surface temperature histories and ground heat flux histories at timescales of decades to millennia. Theses estimates complement high-frequency proxy temperature reconstructions and are the basis for studying continental heat storage. We develop and release a new bootstrap method to derive meaningful confidence intervals for the average surface temperature and heat flux histories from any number of profiles.
Yilin Fang, L. Ruby Leung, Charles D. Koven, Gautam Bisht, Matteo Detto, Yanyan Cheng, Nate McDowell, Helene Muller-Landau, S. Joseph Wright, and Jeffrey Q. Chambers
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7879–7901, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7879-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7879-2022, 2022
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We develop a model that integrates an Earth system model with a three-dimensional hydrology model to explicitly resolve hillslope topography and water flow underneath the land surface to understand how local-scale hydrologic processes modulate vegetation along water availability gradients. Our coupled model can be used to improve the understanding of the diverse impact of local heterogeneity and water flux on nutrient availability and plant communities.
Wentao Zhang, Xiangjun Shi, and Chunsong Lu
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7751–7766, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7751-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7751-2022, 2022
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The two-moment bulk cloud microphysics scheme used in CAM6 was modified to consider the impacts of the ice-crystal size distribution shape parameter (μi). After that, how the μi impacts cloud microphysical processes and then climate simulations is clearly illustrated by offline tests and CAM6 model experiments. Our results and findings are useful for the further development of μi-related parameterizations.
Yona Silvy, Clément Rousset, Eric Guilyardi, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Juliette Mignot, Christian Ethé, and Gurvan Madec
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7683–7713, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7683-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7683-2022, 2022
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A modeling framework is introduced to understand and decompose the mechanisms causing the ocean temperature, salinity and circulation to change since the pre-industrial period and into 21st century scenarios of global warming. This framework aims to look at the response to changes in the winds and in heat and freshwater exchanges at the ocean interface in global climate models, throughout the 1850–2100 period, to unravel their individual effects on the changing physical structure of the ocean.
Aiko Voigt, Petra Schwer, Noam von Rotberg, and Nicole Knopf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7489–7504, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7489-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7489-2022, 2022
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In climate science, it is helpful to identify coherent objects, for example, those formed by clouds. However, many models now use unstructured grids, which makes it harder to identify coherent objects. We present a new method that solves this problem by moving model data from an unstructured triangular grid to a structured cubical grid. We implement the method in an open-source Python package and show that the method is ready to be applied to climate model data.
Jérémy Bernard, Erwan Bocher, Elisabeth Le Saux Wiederhold, François Leconte, and Valéry Masson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7505–7532, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7505-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7505-2022, 2022
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OpenStreetMap is a collaborative project aimed at creaing a free dataset containing topographical information. Since these data are available worldwide, they can be used as standard data for geoscience studies. However, most buildings miss the height information that constitutes key data for numerous fields (urban climate, noise propagation, air pollution). In this work, the building height is estimated using statistical modeling using indicators that characterize the building's environment.
Sergey Kravtsov, Ilijana Mastilovic, Andrew McC. Hogg, William K. Dewar, and Jeffrey R. Blundell
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7449–7469, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7449-2022, 2022
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Climate is a complex system whose behavior is shaped by multitudes of processes operating on widely different spatial scales and timescales. In hierarchical modeling, one goes back and forth between highly idealized process models and state-of-the-art models coupling the entire range of climate subsystems to identify specific phenomena and understand their dynamics. The present contribution highlights an intermediate climate model focussing on midlatitude ocean–atmosphere interactions.
Ingo Wohltmann, Daniel Kreyling, and Ralph Lehmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7243–7255, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7243-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7243-2022, 2022
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The study evaluates the performance of the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), equipped with the recently added forward operator Radiative Transfer for TOVS (RTTOV), in assimilating FY-4A visible images into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The ability of the WRF-DART/RTTOV system to improve the forecasting skills for a tropical storm over East Asia and the Western Pacific is demonstrated in an Observing System Simulation Experiment framework.
Juan Ruiz, Pierre Ailliot, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Pierre Le Bras, Valérie Monbet, Florian Sévellec, and Pierre Tandeo
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7203–7220, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7203-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7203-2022, 2022
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We present a new approach to validate numerical simulations of the current climate. The method can take advantage of existing climate simulations produced by different centers combining an analog forecasting approach with data assimilation to quantify how well a particular model reproduces a sequence of observed values. The method can be applied with different observations types and is implemented locally in space and time significantly reducing the associated computational cost.
Chahan M. Kropf, Alessio Ciullo, Laura Otth, Simona Meiler, Arun Rana, Emanuel Schmid, Jamie W. McCaughey, and David N. Bresch
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7177–7201, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7177-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7177-2022, 2022
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Mathematical models are approximations, and modellers need to understand and ideally quantify the arising uncertainties. Here, we describe and showcase the first, simple-to-use, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis module of the open-source and open-access climate-risk modelling platform CLIMADA. This may help to enhance transparency and intercomparison of studies among climate-risk modellers, help focus future research, and lead to better-informed decisions on climate adaptation.
Günther Zängl, Daniel Reinert, and Florian Prill
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7153–7176, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7153-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7153-2022, 2022
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This article describes the implementation of grid refinement in the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model, which has been jointly developed at several German institutions and constitutes a unified modeling system for global and regional numerical weather prediction and climate applications. The grid refinement allows using a higher resolution in regional domains and transferring the information back to the global domain by means of a feedback mechanism.
Sébastien Gardoll and Olivier Boucher
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7051–7073, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7051-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7051-2022, 2022
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Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most devastating natural disasters, which justifies monitoring and prediction in the context of a changing climate. In this study, we have adapted and tested a convolutional neural network (CNN) for the classification of reanalysis outputs (ERA5 and MERRA-2 labeled by HURDAT2) according to the presence or absence of TCs. We tested the impact of interpolation and of "mixing and matching" the training and test sets on the performance of the CNN.
Marco A. Giorgetta, William Sawyer, Xavier Lapillonne, Panagiotis Adamidis, Dmitry Alexeev, Valentin Clément, Remo Dietlicher, Jan Frederik Engels, Monika Esch, Henning Franke, Claudia Frauen, Walter M. Hannah, Benjamin R. Hillman, Luis Kornblueh, Philippe Marti, Matthew R. Norman, Robert Pincus, Sebastian Rast, Daniel Reinert, Reiner Schnur, Uwe Schulzweida, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6985–7016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6985-2022, 2022
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This work presents a first version of the ICON atmosphere model that works not only on CPUs, but also on GPUs. This GPU-enabled ICON version is benchmarked on two GPU machines and a CPU machine. While the weak scaling is very good on CPUs and GPUs, the strong scaling is poor on GPUs. But the high performance of GPU machines allowed for first simulations of a short period of the quasi-biennial oscillation at very high resolution with explicit convection and gravity wave forcing.
Shixuan Zhang, Kai Zhang, Hui Wan, and Jian Sun
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6787–6816, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6787-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6787-2022, 2022
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This study investigates the nudging implementation in the EAMv1 model. We find that (1) revising the sequence of calculations and using higher-frequency constraining data to improve the performance of a simulation nudged to EAMv1’s own meteorology, (2) using the relocated nudging tendency and 3-hourly ERA5 reanalysis to obtain a better agreement between nudged simulations and observations, and (3) using wind-only nudging are recommended for the estimates of global mean aerosol effects.
Christian R. Steger, Benjamin Steger, and Christoph Schär
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6817–6840, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6817-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6817-2022, 2022
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Terrain horizon and sky view factor are crucial quantities for many geoscientific applications; e.g. they are used to account for effects of terrain on surface radiation in climate and land surface models. Because typical terrain horizon algorithms are inefficient for high-resolution (< 30 m) elevation data, we developed a new algorithm based on a ray-tracing library. A comparison with two conventional methods revealed both its high performance and its accuracy for complex terrain.
David Martín Belda, Peter Anthoni, David Wårlind, Stefan Olin, Guy Schurgers, Jing Tang, Benjamin Smith, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6709–6745, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6709-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6709-2022, 2022
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We present a number of augmentations to the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS, which will allow us to use it in studies of the interactions between the land biosphere and the climate. The new module enables calculation of fluxes of energy and water into the atmosphere that are consistent with the modelled vegetation processes. The modelled fluxes are in fair agreement with observations across 21 sites from the FLUXNET network.
Jorge Baño-Medina, Rodrigo Manzanas, Ezequiel Cimadevilla, Jesús Fernández, Jose González-Abad, Antonio S. Cofiño, and José Manuel Gutiérrez
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6747–6758, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6747-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6747-2022, 2022
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Deep neural networks are used to produce downscaled regional climate change projections over Europe for temperature and precipitation for the first time. The resulting dataset, DeepESD, is analyzed against state-of-the-art downscaling methodologies, reproducing more accurately the observed climate in the historical period and showing plausible future climate change signals with low computational requirements.
Stella Bourdin, Sébastien Fromang, William Dulac, Julien Cattiaux, and Fabrice Chauvin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6759–6786, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6759-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6759-2022, 2022
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When studying tropical cyclones in a large dataset, one needs objective and automatic procedures to detect their specific pattern. Applying four different such algorithms to a reconstruction of the climate, we show that the choice of the algorithm is crucial to the climatology obtained. Mainly, the algorithms differ in their sensitivity to weak storms so that they provide different frequencies and durations. We review the different options to consider for the choice of the tracking methodology.
Stanley G. Benjamin, Tatiana G. Smirnova, Eric P. James, Eric J. Anderson, Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome, John G. W. Kelley, Greg E. Mann, Andrew D. Gronewold, Philip Chu, and Sean G. T. Kelley
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6659–6676, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6659-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6659-2022, 2022
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Application of 1-D lake models coupled within earth-system prediction models will improve accuracy but requires accurate initialization of lake temperatures. Here, we describe a lake initialization method by cycling within a weather prediction model to constrain lake temperature evolution. We compared these lake temperature values with other estimates and found much reduced errors (down to 1-2 K). The lake cycling initialization is now applied to two operational US NOAA weather models.
Nicholas K.-R. Kevlahan and Florian Lemarié
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6521–6539, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6521-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6521-2022, 2022
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WAVETRISK-2.1 is an innovative climate model for the world's oceans. It uses state-of-the-art techniques to change the model's resolution locally, from O(100 km) to O(5 km), as the ocean changes. This dynamic adaptivity makes optimal use of available supercomputer resources, and allows two-dimensional global scales and three-dimensional submesoscales to be captured in the same simulation. WAVETRISK-2.1 is designed to be coupled its companion global atmosphere model, WAVETRISK-1.x.
Meng Huang, Po-Lun Ma, Nathaniel W. Chaney, Dalei Hao, Gautam Bisht, Megan D. Fowler, Vincent E. Larson, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6371–6384, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6371-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6371-2022, 2022
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The land surface in one grid cell may be diverse in character. This study uses an explicit way to account for that subgrid diversity in a state-of-the-art Earth system model (ESM) and explores its implications for the overlying atmosphere. We find that the shallow clouds are increased significantly with the land surface diversity. Our work highlights the importance of accurately representing the land surface and its interaction with the atmosphere in next-generation ESMs.
Jan Streffing, Dmitry Sidorenko, Tido Semmler, Lorenzo Zampieri, Patrick Scholz, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Nikolay Koldunov, Thomas Rackow, Joakim Kjellsson, Helge Goessling, Marylou Athanase, Qiang Wang, Jan Hegewald, Dmitry V. Sein, Longjiang Mu, Uwe Fladrich, Dirk Barbi, Paul Gierz, Sergey Danilov, Stephan Juricke, Gerrit Lohmann, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6399–6427, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6399-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6399-2022, 2022
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We developed a new atmosphere–ocean coupled climate model, AWI-CM3. Our model is significantly more computationally efficient than its predecessors AWI-CM1 and AWI-CM2. We show that the model, although cheaper to run, provides results of similar quality when modeling the historic period from 1850 to 2014. We identify the remaining weaknesses to outline future work. Finally we preview an improved simulation where the reduction in computational cost has to be invested in higher model resolution.
Stephen G. Yeager, Nan Rosenbloom, Anne A. Glanville, Xian Wu, Isla Simpson, Hui Li, Maria J. Molina, Kristen Krumhardt, Samuel Mogen, Keith Lindsay, Danica Lombardozzi, Will Wieder, Who M. Kim, Jadwiga H. Richter, Matthew Long, Gokhan Danabasoglu, David Bailey, Marika Holland, Nicole Lovenduski, Warren G. Strand, and Teagan King
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6451–6493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022, 2022
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The Earth system changes over a range of time and space scales, and some of these changes are predictable in advance. Short-term weather forecasts are most familiar, but recent work has shown that it is possible to generate useful predictions several seasons or even a decade in advance. This study focuses on predictions over intermediate timescales (up to 24 months in advance) and shows that there is promising potential to forecast a variety of changes in the natural environment.
Thomas Bossy, Thomas Gasser, and Philippe Ciais
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-802, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-802, 2022
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We developed a new simple climate model, designed to fill a perceived gap within the existing simple climate models by fulfilling three key requirements: calibration using Bayesian inference, possibility of coupling with integrated assessment models, and capacity to explore climate scenarios compatible with limiting climate impacts. Here, we describe the model, its calibration using the latest data from complex CMIP6 models and the IPCC AR6, and we assess its performance.
Mauro Morichetti, Sasha Madronich, Giorgio Passerini, Umberto Rizza, Enrico Mancinelli, Simone Virgili, and Mary Barth
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6311–6339, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6311-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6311-2022, 2022
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In the present study, we explore the effect of making simple changes to the existing WRF-Chem MEGAN v2.04 emissions to provide MEGAN updates that can be used independently of the land surface model chosen. The changes made to the MEGAN algorithm implemented in WRF-Chem were the following: (i) update of the emission activity factors, (ii) update of emission factor values for each plant functional type (PFT), and (iii) the assignment of the emission factor by PFT to isoprene.
Walter Hannah, Kyle Pressel, Mikhail Ovchinnikov, and Gregory Elsaesser
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6243–6257, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6243-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6243-2022, 2022
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An unphysical checkerboard signal is identified in two configurations of the atmospheric component of E3SM. The signal is very persistent and visible after averaging years of data. The signal is very difficult to study because it is often mixed with realistic weather. A method is presented to detect checkerboard patterns and compare the model with satellite observations. The causes of the signal are identified, and a solution for one configuration is discussed.
Peter Berg, Thomas Bosshard, Wei Yang, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6165–6180, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6165-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6165-2022, 2022
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When performing impact analyses with climate models, one is often confronted with the issue that the models have significant bias. Commonly, the modelled climatological temperature deviates from the observed climate by a few degrees or it rains excessively in the model. MIdAS employs a novel statistical model to translate the model climatology toward that observed using novel methodologies and modern tools. The coding platform allows opportunities to develop methods for high-resolution models.
Chia-Te Chien, Jonathan V. Durgadoo, Dana Ehlert, Ivy Frenger, David P. Keller, Wolfgang Koeve, Iris Kriest, Angela Landolfi, Lavinia Patara, Sebastian Wahl, and Andreas Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5987–6024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5987-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5987-2022, 2022
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We present the implementation and evaluation of a marine biogeochemical model, Model of Oceanic Pelagic Stoichiometry (MOPS) in the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure (FOCI) climate model. FOCI-MOPS enables the simulation of marine biological processes, the marine carbon, nitrogen and oxygen cycles, and air–sea gas exchange of CO2 and O2. As shown by our evaluation, FOCI-MOPS shows an overall adequate performance that makes it an appropriate tool for Earth climate system simulations.
Miguel Nogueira, Alexandra Hurduc, Sofia Ermida, Daniela C. A. Lima, Pedro M. M. Soares, Frederico Johannsen, and Emanuel Dutra
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5949–5965, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5949-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5949-2022, 2022
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We evaluated the quality of the ERA5 reanalysis representation of the urban heat island (UHI) over the city of Paris and performed a set of offline runs using the SURFEX land surface model. They were compared with observations (satellite and in situ). The SURFEX-TEB runs showed the best performance in representing the UHI, reducing its bias significantly. We demonstrate the ability of the SURFEX-TEB framework to simulate urban climate, which is crucial for studying climate change in cities.
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Alexander Robinson, and Neil R. Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5905–5948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, 2022
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In this paper we present the climate component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. It has a horizontal resolution of 5°x5° and is designed to simulate the evolution of the Earth system on temporal scales ranging from decades to >100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is available as open-source code and is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the climate.
Takaya Uchida, Julien Le Sommer, Charles Stern, Ryan P. Abernathey, Chris Holdgraf, Aurélie Albert, Laurent Brodeau, Eric P. Chassignet, Xiaobiao Xu, Jonathan Gula, Guillaume Roullet, Nikolay Koldunov, Sergey Danilov, Qiang Wang, Dimitris Menemenlis, Clément Bricaud, Brian K. Arbic, Jay F. Shriver, Fangli Qiao, Bin Xiao, Arne Biastoch, René Schubert, Baylor Fox-Kemper, William K. Dewar, and Alan Wallcraft
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5829–5856, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5829-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5829-2022, 2022
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Ocean and climate scientists have used numerical simulations as a tool to examine the ocean and climate system since the 1970s. Since then, owing to the continuous increase in computational power and advances in numerical methods, we have been able to simulate increasing complex phenomena. However, the fidelity of the simulations in representing the phenomena remains a core issue in the ocean science community. Here we propose a cloud-based framework to inter-compare and assess such simulations.
Yuejin Ye, Zhenya Song, Shengchang Zhou, Yao Liu, Qi Shu, Bingzhuo Wang, Weiguo Liu, Fangli Qiao, and Lanning Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5739–5756, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5739-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5739-2022, 2022
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The swNEMO_v4.0 is developed with ultrahigh scalability through the concepts of hardware–software co-design based on the characteristics of the new Sunway supercomputer and NEMO4. Three breakthroughs, including an adaptive four-level parallelization design, many-core optimization and mixed-precision optimization, are designed. The simulations achieve 71.48 %, 83.40 % and 99.29 % parallel efficiency with resolutions of 2 km, 1 km and 500 m using 27 988 480 cores, respectively.
Yung-Yao Lan, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Wan-Ling Tseng, and Li-Chiang Jiang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5689–5712, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5689-2022, 2022
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This study has shown that coupling a high-resolution 1-D ocean model (SIT 1.06) with the Community Atmosphere Model 5.3 (CAM5.3) significantly improves the simulation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the standalone CAM5.3. Systematic sensitivity experiments resulted in more realistic simulations of the tropical MJO because they had better upper-ocean resolution, adequate upper-ocean thickness, coupling regions including the eastern Pacific and southern tropics, and a diurnal cycle.
Yanfeng He, Hossain Mohammed Syedul Hoque, and Kengo Sudo
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5627–5650, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5627-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5627-2022, 2022
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Lightning-produced NOx (LNOx) is a major source of NOx. Hence, it is crucial to improve the prediction accuracy of lightning and LNOx in chemical climate models. By modifying existing lightning schemes and testing them in the chemical climate model CHASER, we improved the prediction accuracy of lightning in CHASER. Different lightning schemes respond very differently under global warming, which indicates further research is needed considering the reproducibility of long-term trends of lightning.
Dario Nicolì, Alessio Bellucci, Paolo Ruggieri, Panos Athanasiadis, Stefano Materia, Daniele Peano, Giusy Fedele, and Silvio Gualdi
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-181, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-181, 2022
Preprint under review for GMD
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Decadal climate predictions, obtained by constraining the initial condition of a dynamical model through a truthful estimate of the observed climate state, provide an accurate assessment of the near-term climate and a useful tool to inform decision-makers on future climate-related risks. The predictive skill for key variables is assessed from the operational CMCC decadal prediction system compared with non-initialized historical simulations so as to quantify the added value of initialization.
Wan-Ling Tseng, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Yung-Yao Lan, Wei-Liang Lee, Chia-Ying Tu, Pei-Hsuan Kuo, Ben-Jei Tsuang, and Hsin-Chien Liang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5529–5546, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5529-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5529-2022, 2022
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We show that coupling a high-resolution one-column ocean model to three atmospheric general circulation models dramatically improves Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) simulations. It suggests two major improvements to the coupling process in the preconditioning phase and strongest convection phase over the Maritime Continent. Our results demonstrate a simple but effective way to significantly improve MJO simulations and potentially seasonal to subseasonal prediction.
Marius S. A. Lambert, Hui Tang, Kjetil S. Aas, Frode Stordal, Rosie A. Fisher, Yilin Fang, Junyan Ding, and Frans-Jan W. Parmentier
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-136, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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In this study, we implemented a hardening mortality scheme into CTSM5.0-FATES-Hydro, and evaluate how it impacts plant hydraulics and vegetation growth. Our work shows that the hydraulic modifications prescribed by the hardening scheme are necessary to model realistic vegetation growth in cold climates, in contrast to the default model that simulates almost nonexistent and declining vegetation due to abnormally large water loss through the roots.
Sol Kim, L. Ruby Leung, Bin Guan, and John C. H. Chiang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5461–5480, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5461-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5461-2022, 2022
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The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project is a state-of-the-science Earth system model developed by the US Department of Energy (DOE). Understanding how the water cycle behaves in this model is of particular importance to the DOE’s mission. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) – which are crucial to the global water cycle – move vast amounts of water vapor through the sky and produce rain and snow. We find that this model reliably represents atmospheric rivers around the world.
Timothy O. Hodson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5481–5487, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5481-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5481-2022, 2022
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The task of evaluating competing models is fundamental to science. Models are evaluated based on an objective function, the choice of which ultimately influences what scientists learn from their observations. The mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-squared error (RMSE) are two such functions. Both are widely used, yet there remains enduring confusion over their use. This article reviews the theoretical justification behind their usage, as well as alternatives for when they are not suitable.
Lingcheng Li, Gautam Bisht, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5489–5510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5489-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5489-2022, 2022
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Land surface heterogeneity plays a critical role in the terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. Our study systematically quantified the effects of four dominant heterogeneity sources on water and energy partitioning via Sobol' indices. We found that atmospheric forcing and land use land cover are the most dominant heterogeneity sources in determining spatial variability of water and energy partitioning. Our findings can help prioritize the future development of land surface models.
Yoann Tellier, Cyril Crevoisier, Raymond Armante, Jean-Louis Dufresne, and Nicolas Meilhac
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5211–5231, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5211-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5211-2022, 2022
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Accurate radiative transfer models (RTMs) are required to improve climate model simulations. We describe the module named 4A-Flux, which is implemented into 4A/OP RTM, aimed at calculating spectral longwave radiative fluxes given a description of the surface, atmosphere, and spectroscopy. In Pincus et al. (2020), 4A-Flux has shown good agreement with state-of-the-art RTMs. Here, it is applied to perform sensitivity studies and will be used to improve the understanding of radiative flux modeling.
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Short summary
We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features...
