Articles | Volume 15, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4689-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4689-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Methods for assessment of models
| 
20 Jun 2022
Methods for assessment of models |
| 20 Jun 2022
| 20 Jun 2022
loopUI-0.1: indicators to support needs and practices in 3D geological modelling uncertainty quantification
Guillaume Pirot
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
The Centre for Exploration Targeting, School of Earth Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
Mineral Exploration Cooperative Research Centre (MinEx CRC), School of Earth Sciences, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
Ranee Joshi
The Centre for Exploration Targeting, School of Earth Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
Mineral Exploration Cooperative Research Centre (MinEx CRC), School of Earth Sciences, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
Jérémie Giraud
The Centre for Exploration Targeting, School of Earth Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
Mineral Exploration Cooperative Research Centre (MinEx CRC), School of Earth Sciences, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
GeoRessources Lab, University of Lorraine, Nancy, France
Mark Douglas Lindsay
The Centre for Exploration Targeting, School of Earth Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
Mineral Exploration Cooperative Research Centre (MinEx CRC), School of Earth Sciences, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
ARC Industrial Transformation and Training Centre
in Data Analytics for Resources and the Environment (DARE), Sydney, Australia
CSIRO Mineral Resources, Perth, Australia
Mark Walter Jessell
The Centre for Exploration Targeting, School of Earth Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
Mineral Exploration Cooperative Research Centre (MinEx CRC), School of Earth Sciences, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
ARC Industrial Transformation and Training Centre
in Data Analytics for Resources and the Environment (DARE), Sydney, Australia
Related authors
Alan Robert Alexander Aitken, Ian Arburua Delaney, Guillaume Pirot, and Mauro Werder
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-274, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how glaciers generate and transport sediment to the ocean is important for understanding ocean ecosystems and for developing knowledge of past cryosphere from marine sediments. This manuscript presents a new way to simulate sediment transport in rivers below ice sheets and glaciers and quantify volumes and characteristics of sediment that can be used to reveal the hidden record of the subglacial environment for both past and present glacial conditions.
Richard Scalzo, Mark Lindsay, Mark Jessell, Guillaume Pirot, Jeremie Giraud, Edward Cripps, and Sally Cripps
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3641–3662, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3641-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper addresses numerical challenges in reasoning about geological models constrained by sensor data, especially models that describe the history of an area in terms of a sequence of events. Our method ensures that small changes in simulated geological features, such as the position of a boundary between two rock layers, do not result in unrealistically large changes to resulting sensor measurements, as occur presently using several popular modeling packages.
Mark Jessell, Jiateng Guo, Yunqiang Li, Mark Lindsay, Richard Scalzo, Jérémie Giraud, Guillaume Pirot, Ed Cripps, and Vitaliy Ogarko
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 381–392, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-381-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To robustly train and test automated methods in the geosciences, we need to have access to large numbers of examples where we know
the answer. We present a suite of synthetic 3D geological models with their gravity and magnetic responses that allow researchers to test their methods on a whole range of geologically plausible models, thus overcoming one of the fundamental limitations of automation studies.
Ranee Joshi, Kavitha Madaiah, Mark Jessell, Mark Lindsay, and Guillaume Pirot
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6711–6740, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6711-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6711-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed a software that allows the user to extract and standardize drill hole information from legacy datasets and/or different drilling campaigns. It also provides functionality to upscale the lithological information. These functionalities were possible by developing thesauri to identify and group geological terminologies together.
Mark Jessell, Vitaliy Ogarko, Yohan de Rose, Mark Lindsay, Ranee Joshi, Agnieszka Piechocka, Lachlan Grose, Miguel de la Varga, Laurent Ailleres, and Guillaume Pirot
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5063–5092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5063-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5063-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed software that allows the user to extract sufficient information from unmodified digital maps and associated datasets that we are able to use to automatically build 3D geological models. By automating the process we are able to remove human bias from the procedure, which makes the workflow reproducible.
Guillaume Pirot, Tipaluck Krityakierne, David Ginsbourger, and Philippe Renard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 351–369, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-351-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-351-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
To localize the source of a contaminant in the subsurface, based on concentration observations at some wells, we propose to test different possible locations and minimize the misfit between observed and simulated concentrations. We use a global optimization technique that relies on an expected improvement criterion, which allows a good exploration of the parameter space, avoids the trapping of local minima and quickly localizes the source of the contaminant on the presented synthetic cases.
Vitaliy Ogarko, Kim Frankcombe, Taige Liu, Jeremie Giraud, Roland Martin, and Mark Jessell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2325–2345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2325-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2325-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a major release of the Tomofast-x open-source gravity and magnetic inversion code that is enhancing its performance and applicability for both industrial and academic studies. We focus on real-world mineral exploration scenarios, while offering flexibility for applications at regional scale or for crustal studies. The optimisation work described in this paper is fundamental to allowing more complete descriptions of the controls on magnetisation, including remanence.
Alan Robert Alexander Aitken, Ian Arburua Delaney, Guillaume Pirot, and Mauro Werder
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-274, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how glaciers generate and transport sediment to the ocean is important for understanding ocean ecosystems and for developing knowledge of past cryosphere from marine sediments. This manuscript presents a new way to simulate sediment transport in rivers below ice sheets and glaciers and quantify volumes and characteristics of sediment that can be used to reveal the hidden record of the subglacial environment for both past and present glacial conditions.
Jiateng Guo, Xuechuang Xu, Luyuan Wang, Xulei Wang, Lixin Wu, Mark Jessell, Vitaliy Ogarko, Zhibin Liu, and Yufei Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 957–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-957-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-957-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a semi-supervised learning algorithm using pseudo-labels for 3D geological modelling. We establish a 3D geological model using borehole data from a complex real urban local survey area in Shenyang and make an uncertainty analysis of this model. The method effectively expands the sample space, which is suitable for geomodelling and uncertainty analysis from boreholes. The modelling results perform well in terms of spatial morphology and geological semantics.
Jérémie Giraud, Guillaume Caumon, Lachlan Grose, Vitaliy Ogarko, and Paul Cupillard
Solid Earth, 15, 63–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present and test an algorithm that integrates geological modelling into deterministic geophysical inversion. This is motivated by the need to model the Earth using all available data and to reconcile the different types of measurements. We introduce the methodology and test our algorithm using two idealised scenarios. Results suggest that the method we propose is effectively capable of improving the models recovered by geophysical inversion and may be applied in real-world scenarios.
Jérémie Giraud, Hoël Seillé, Mark D. Lindsay, Gerhard Visser, Vitaliy Ogarko, and Mark W. Jessell
Solid Earth, 14, 43–68, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-14-43-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-14-43-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose and apply a workflow to combine the modelling and interpretation of magnetic anomalies and resistivity anomalies to better image the basement. We test the method on a synthetic case study and apply it to real world data from the Cloncurry area (Queensland, Australia), which is prospective for economic minerals. Results suggest a new interpretation of the composition and structure towards to east of the profile that we modelled.
Richard Scalzo, Mark Lindsay, Mark Jessell, Guillaume Pirot, Jeremie Giraud, Edward Cripps, and Sally Cripps
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3641–3662, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3641-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper addresses numerical challenges in reasoning about geological models constrained by sensor data, especially models that describe the history of an area in terms of a sequence of events. Our method ensures that small changes in simulated geological features, such as the position of a boundary between two rock layers, do not result in unrealistically large changes to resulting sensor measurements, as occur presently using several popular modeling packages.
Mark Jessell, Jiateng Guo, Yunqiang Li, Mark Lindsay, Richard Scalzo, Jérémie Giraud, Guillaume Pirot, Ed Cripps, and Vitaliy Ogarko
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 381–392, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-381-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To robustly train and test automated methods in the geosciences, we need to have access to large numbers of examples where we know
the answer. We present a suite of synthetic 3D geological models with their gravity and magnetic responses that allow researchers to test their methods on a whole range of geologically plausible models, thus overcoming one of the fundamental limitations of automation studies.
Ranee Joshi, Kavitha Madaiah, Mark Jessell, Mark Lindsay, and Guillaume Pirot
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6711–6740, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6711-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6711-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed a software that allows the user to extract and standardize drill hole information from legacy datasets and/or different drilling campaigns. It also provides functionality to upscale the lithological information. These functionalities were possible by developing thesauri to identify and group geological terminologies together.
Jérémie Giraud, Vitaliy Ogarko, Roland Martin, Mark Jessell, and Mark Lindsay
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6681–6709, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6681-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6681-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We review different techniques to model the Earth's subsurface from geophysical data (gravity field anomaly, magnetic field anomaly) using geological models and measurements of the rocks' properties. We show examples of application using idealised examples reproducing realistic features and provide theoretical details of the open-source algorithm we use.
Mahtab Rashidifard, Jérémie Giraud, Mark Lindsay, Mark Jessell, and Vitaliy Ogarko
Solid Earth, 12, 2387–2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-2387-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-2387-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
One motivation for this study is to develop a workflow that enables the integration of geophysical datasets with different coverages that are quite common in exploration geophysics. We have utilized a level set approach to achieve this goal. The utilized technique parameterizes the subsurface in the same fashion as geological models. Our results indicate that the approach is capable of integrating information from seismic data in 2D to guide the 3D inversion results of the gravity data.
Lachlan Grose, Laurent Ailleres, Gautier Laurent, Guillaume Caumon, Mark Jessell, and Robin Armit
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6197–6213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6197-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6197-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Fault discontinuities in rock packages represent the plane where two blocks of rock have moved. They are challenging to incorporate into geological models because the geometry of the faulted rock units are defined by not only the location of the discontinuity but also the kinematics of the fault. In this paper, we outline a structural geology framework for incorporating faults into geological models by directly incorporating kinematics into the mathematical framework of the model.
Mark Jessell, Vitaliy Ogarko, Yohan de Rose, Mark Lindsay, Ranee Joshi, Agnieszka Piechocka, Lachlan Grose, Miguel de la Varga, Laurent Ailleres, and Guillaume Pirot
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5063–5092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5063-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5063-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed software that allows the user to extract sufficient information from unmodified digital maps and associated datasets that we are able to use to automatically build 3D geological models. By automating the process we are able to remove human bias from the procedure, which makes the workflow reproducible.
Lachlan Grose, Laurent Ailleres, Gautier Laurent, and Mark Jessell
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3915–3937, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3915-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3915-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
LoopStructural is an open-source 3D geological modelling library with a model design allowing for multiple different algorithms to be used for comparison for the same geology. Geological structures are modelled using structural geology concepts and techniques, allowing for complex structures such as overprinted folds and faults to be modelled. In the paper, we demonstrate automatically generating a 3-D model from map2loop-processed geological survey data of the Flinders Ranges, South Australia.
Mark D. Lindsay, Sandra Occhipinti, Crystal Laflamme, Alan Aitken, and Lara Ramos
Solid Earth, 11, 1053–1077, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-1053-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-1053-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Integrated interpretation of multiple datasets is a key skill required for better understanding the composition and configuration of the Earth's crust. Geophysical and 3D geological modelling are used here to aid the interpretation process in investigating anomalous and cryptic geophysical signatures which suggest a more complex structure and history of a Palaeoproterozoic basin in Western Australia.
Jérémie Giraud, Mark Lindsay, Mark Jessell, and Vitaliy Ogarko
Solid Earth, 11, 419–436, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-419-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-419-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a methodology for the identification of rock types using geophysical and geological information. It relies on an algorithm used in machine learning called
self-organizing maps, to which we add plausibility filters to ensure that the results respect base geological rules and geophysical measurements. Application in the Yerrida Basin (Western Australia) reveals that the thinning of prospective greenstone belts at depth could be due to deep structures not seen from surface.
Evren Pakyuz-Charrier, Mark Jessell, Jérémie Giraud, Mark Lindsay, and Vitaliy Ogarko
Solid Earth, 10, 1663–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1663-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1663-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper improves the Monte Carlo simulation for uncertainty propagation (MCUP) method for 3-D geological modeling. Topological heterogeneity is observed in the model suite. The study demonstrates that such heterogeneity arises from piecewise nonlinearity inherent to 3-D geological models and contraindicates use of global uncertainty estimation methods. Topological-clustering-driven uncertainty estimation is proposed as a demonstrated alternative to address plausible model heterogeneity.
Jeremie Giraud, Mark Lindsay, Vitaliy Ogarko, Mark Jessell, Roland Martin, and Evren Pakyuz-Charrier
Solid Earth, 10, 193–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-193-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-193-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We propose the quantitative integration of geology and geophysics in an algorithm integrating the probability of observation of rocks with gravity data to improve subsurface imaging. This allows geophysical modelling to adjust models preferentially in the least certain areas while honouring geological information and geophysical data. We validate our algorithm using an idealized case and apply it to the Yerrida Basin (Australia), where we can recover the geometry of buried greenstone belts.
Guillaume Pirot, Tipaluck Krityakierne, David Ginsbourger, and Philippe Renard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 351–369, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-351-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-351-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
To localize the source of a contaminant in the subsurface, based on concentration observations at some wells, we propose to test different possible locations and minimize the misfit between observed and simulated concentrations. We use a global optimization technique that relies on an expected improvement criterion, which allows a good exploration of the parameter space, avoids the trapping of local minima and quickly localizes the source of the contaminant on the presented synthetic cases.
Evren Pakyuz-Charrier, Mark Lindsay, Vitaliy Ogarko, Jeremie Giraud, and Mark Jessell
Solid Earth, 9, 385–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-385-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-385-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
MCUE is a method that produces probabilistic 3-D geological models by sampling from distributions that represent the uncertainty of the initial input dataset. This process generates numerous plausible datasets used to produce a range of statistically plausible 3-D models which are combined into a single probabilistic model. In this paper, improvements to distribution selection and parameterization for input uncertainty are proposed.
Xiaojun Feng, Enyuan Wang, Jérôme Ganne, Roland Martin, and Mark W. Jessell
Solid Earth Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/se-2017-142, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-2017-142, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
J. Florian Wellmann, Sam T. Thiele, Mark D. Lindsay, and Mark W. Jessell
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1019–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1019-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1019-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We often obtain knowledge about the subsurface in the form of structural geological models, as a basis for subsurface usage or resource extraction. Here, we provide a modelling code to construct such models on the basis of significant deformational events in geological history, encapsulated in kinematic equations. Our methods simplify complex dynamic processes, but enable us to evaluate how events interact, and finally how certain we are about predictions of structures in the subsurface.
Related subject area
Climate and Earth system modeling
Linking global terrestrial and ocean biogeochemistry with process-based, coupled freshwater algae–nutrient–solid dynamics in LM3-FANSY v1.0
Validating a microphysical prognostic stratospheric aerosol implementation in E3SMv2 using observations after the Mount Pinatubo eruption
Implementing detailed nucleation predictions in the Earth system model EC-Earth3.3.4: sulfuric acid–ammonia nucleation
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC_v1.0)
Hector V3.2.0: functionality and performance of a reduced-complexity climate model
Evaluation of CMIP6 model simulations of PM2.5 and its components over China
Assessment of a tiling energy budget approach in a land surface model, ORCHIDEE-MICT (r8205)
Multivariate adjustment of drizzle bias using machine learning in European climate projections
Development and evaluation of the interactive Model for Air Pollution and Land Ecosystems (iMAPLE) version 1.0
A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs)
Parallel SnowModel (v1.0): a parallel implementation of a distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel)
LB-SCAM: a learning-based method for efficient large-scale sensitivity analysis and tuning of the Single Column Atmosphere Model (SCAM)
Quantifying the impact of SST feedback frequency on Madden–Julian oscillation simulations
Systematic and objective evaluation of Earth system models: PCMDI Metrics Package (PMP) version 3
A revised model of global silicate weathering considering the influence of vegetation cover on erosion rate
A radiative–convective model computing precipitation with the maximum entropy production hypothesis
Leveraging regional mesh refinement to simulate future climate projections for California using the Simplified Convection-Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model Version 0
Machine learning parameterization of the multi-scale Kain–Fritsch (MSKF) convection scheme and stable simulation coupled in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using WRF–ML v1.0
Impacts of spatial heterogeneity of anthropogenic aerosol emissions in a regionally refined global aerosol–climate model
cfr (v2024.1.26): a Python package for climate field reconstruction
NEWTS1.0: Numerical model of coastal Erosion by Waves and Transgressive Scarps
Evaluation of isoprene emissions from the coupled model SURFEX–MEGANv2.1
A comprehensive Earth system model (AWI-ESM2.1) with interactive icebergs: effects on surface and deep-ocean characteristics
The regional climate–chemistry–ecology coupling model RegCM-Chem (v4.6)–YIBs (v1.0): development and application
An overview of cloud–radiation denial experiments for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1
The computational and energy cost of simulation and storage for climate science: lessons from CMIP6
Subgrid-scale variability of cloud ice in the ICON-AES 1.3.00
INFERNO-peat v1.0.0: a representation of northern high-latitude peat fires in the JULES-INFERNO global fire model
The 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled land data assimilation system for E3SM version 2
Continental-scale bias-corrected climate and hydrological projections for Australia
G6-1.5K-SAI: a new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment integrating recent advances in solar radiation modification studies
Modeling the effects of tropospheric ozone on the growth and yield of global staple crops with DSSAT v4.8.0
A one-dimensional urban flow model with an eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF) scheme and refined turbulent transport (MLUCM v3.0)
DCMIP2016: the tropical cyclone test case
Interactions between atmospheric composition and climate change – progress in understanding and future opportunities from AerChemMIP, PDRMIP, and RFMIP
Applying double-cropping and interactive irrigation in the North China Plain using WRF4.5
CD-type discretization for sea ice dynamics in FESOM version 2
Dynamic MJO forecasts using an ensemble subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast system of IAP-CAS model
CSDMS Data Components: data–model integration tools for Earth surface processes modeling
A generic algorithm to automatically classify urban fabric according to the local climate zone system: implementation in GeoClimate 0.0.1 and application to French cities
Modelling water isotopologues (1H2H16O, 1H217O) in the coupled numerical climate model iLOVECLIM (version 1.1.5)
Localized injections of interactive volcanic aerosols and their climate impacts in a simple general circulation model
CICERO Simple Climate Model (CICERO-SCM v1.1.1) – an improved simple climate model with a parameter calibration tool
Accurate assessment of land–atmosphere coupling in climate models requires high-frequency data output
Towards variance-conserving reconstructions of climate indices with Gaussian process regression in an embedding space
A diatom extension to the cGEnIE Earth system model – EcoGEnIE 1.1
Carbon isotopes in the marine biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1-REcoM3
Flux coupling approach on an exchange grid for the IOW Earth System Model (version 1.04.00) of the Baltic Sea region
Using EUREC4A/ATOMIC field campaign data to improve trade wind regimes in the Community Atmosphere Model
New model ensemble reveals how forcing uncertainty and model structure alter climate simulated across CMIP generations of the Community Earth System Model
Minjin Lee, Charles A. Stock, John P. Dunne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5191–5224, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modeling global freshwater solid and nutrient loads, in both magnitude and form, is imperative for understanding emerging eutrophication problems. Such efforts, however, have been challenged by the difficulty of balancing details of freshwater biogeochemical processes with limited knowledge, input, and validation datasets. Here we develop a global freshwater model that resolves intertwined algae, solid, and nutrient dynamics and provide performance assessment against measurement-based estimates.
Hunter York Brown, Benjamin Wagman, Diana Bull, Kara Peterson, Benjamin Hillman, Xiaohong Liu, Ziming Ke, and Lin Lin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5087–5121, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5087-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5087-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Explosive volcanic eruptions lead to long-lived, microscopic particles in the upper atmosphere which act to cool the Earth's surface by reflecting the Sun's light back to space. We include and test this process in a global climate model, E3SM. E3SM is tested against satellite and balloon observations of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, showing that with these particles in the model we reasonably recreate Pinatubo and its global effects. We also explore how particle size leads to these effects.
Carl Svenhag, Moa K. Sporre, Tinja Olenius, Daniel Yazgi, Sara M. Blichner, Lars P. Nieradzik, and Pontus Roldin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4923–4942, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4923-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research shows the importance of modeling new particle formation (NPF) and growth of particles in the atmosphere on a global scale, as they influence the outcomes of clouds and our climate. With the global model EC-Earth3 we show that using a new method for NPF modeling, which includes new detailed processes with NH3 and H2SO4, significantly impacts the number of particles in the air and clouds and changes the radiation balance of the same magnitude as anthropogenic greenhouse emissions.
Mengjie Han, Qing Zhao, Xili Wang, Ying-Ping Wang, Philippe Ciais, Haicheng Zhang, Daniel S. Goll, Lei Zhu, Zhe Zhao, Zhixuan Guo, Chen Wang, Wei Zhuang, Fengchang Wu, and Wei Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4871–4890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of biochar (BC) on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics is not represented in most land carbon models used for assessing land-based climate change mitigation. Our study develops a BC model that incorporates our current understanding of BC effects on SOC based on a soil carbon model (MIMICS). The BC model can reproduce the SOC changes after adding BC, providing a useful tool to couple dynamic land models to evaluate the effectiveness of BC application for CO2 removal from the atmosphere.
Kalyn Dorheim, Skylar Gering, Robert Gieseke, Corinne Hartin, Leeya Pressburger, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Steven J. Smith, Claudia Tebaldi, Dawn L. Woodard, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4855–4869, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hector is an easy-to-use, global climate–carbon cycle model. With its quick run time, Hector can provide climate information from a run in a fraction of a second. Hector models on a global and annual basis. Here, we present an updated version of the model, Hector V3. In this paper, we document Hector’s new features. Hector V3 is capable of reproducing historical observations, and its future temperature projections are consistent with those of more complex models.
Fangxuan Ren, Jintai Lin, Chenghao Xu, Jamiu A. Adeniran, Jingxu Wang, Randall V. Martin, Aaron van Donkelaar, Melanie S. Hammer, Larry W. Horowitz, Steven T. Turnock, Naga Oshima, Jie Zhang, Susanne Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Gary Strand, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, and Toshihiko Takemura
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4821–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the performance of 14 CMIP6 ESMs in simulating total PM2.5 and its 5 components over China during 2000–2014. PM2.5 and its components are underestimated in almost all models, except that black carbon (BC) and sulfate are overestimated in two models, respectively. The underestimation is the largest for organic carbon (OC) and the smallest for BC. Models reproduce the observed spatial pattern for OC, sulfate, nitrate and ammonium well, yet the agreement is poorer for BC.
Yi Xi, Chunjing Qiu, Yuan Zhang, Dan Zhu, Shushi Peng, Gustaf Hugelius, Jinfeng Chang, Elodie Salmon, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4727–4754, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ORCHIDEE-MICT model can simulate the carbon cycle and hydrology at a sub-grid scale but energy budgets only at a grid scale. This paper assessed the implementation of a multi-tiling energy budget approach in ORCHIDEE-MICT and found warmer surface and soil temperatures, higher soil moisture, and more soil organic carbon across the Northern Hemisphere compared with the original version.
Georgia Lazoglou, Theo Economou, Christina Anagnostopoulou, George Zittis, Anna Tzyrkalli, Pantelis Georgiades, and Jos Lelieveld
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4689–4703, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on the important issue of the drizzle bias effect in regional climate models, described by an over-prediction of the number of rainy days while underestimating associated precipitation amounts. For this purpose, two distinct methodologies are applied and rigorously evaluated. These results are encouraging for using the multivariate machine learning method random forest to increase the accuracy of climate models concerning the projection of the number of wet days.
Xu Yue, Hao Zhou, Chenguang Tian, Yimian Ma, Yihan Hu, Cheng Gong, Hui Zheng, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4621–4642, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4621-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We develop the interactive Model for Air Pollution and Land Ecosystems (iMAPLE). The model considers the full coupling between carbon and water cycles, dynamic fire emissions, wetland methane emissions, biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, and trait-based ozone vegetation damage. Evaluations show that iMAPLE is a useful tool for the study of the interactions among climate, chemistry, and ecosystems.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Ross Mower, Ethan D. Gutmann, Glen E. Liston, Jessica Lundquist, and Soren Rasmussen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4135–4154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4135-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4135-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Higher-resolution model simulations are better at capturing winter snowpack changes across space and time. However, increasing resolution also increases the computational requirements. This work provides an overview of changes made to a distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) to allow it to leverage high-performance computing resources. Continental simulations that were previously estimated to take 120 d can now be performed in 5 h.
Jiaxu Guo, Juepeng Zheng, Yidan Xu, Haohuan Fu, Wei Xue, Lanning Wang, Lin Gan, Ping Gao, Wubing Wan, Xianwei Wu, Zhitao Zhang, Liang Hu, Gaochao Xu, and Xilong Che
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3975–3992, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3975-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To enhance the efficiency of experiments using SCAM, we train a learning-based surrogate model to facilitate large-scale sensitivity analysis and tuning of combinations of multiple parameters. Employing a hybrid method, we investigate the joint sensitivity of multi-parameter combinations across typical cases, identifying the most sensitive three-parameter combination out of 11. Subsequently, we conduct a tuning process aimed at reducing output errors in these cases.
Yung-Yao Lan, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, and Wan-Ling Tseng
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3897–3918, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3897-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses the CAM5–SIT coupled model to investigate the effects of SST feedback frequency on the MJO simulations with intervals at 30 min, 1, 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, and 30 d. The simulations become increasingly unrealistic as the frequency of the SST feedback decreases. Our results suggest that more spontaneous air--sea interaction (e.g., ocean response within 3 d in this study) with high vertical resolution in the ocean model is key to the realistic simulation of the MJO.
Jiwoo Lee, Peter J. Gleckler, Min-Seop Ahn, Ana Ordonez, Paul A. Ullrich, Kenneth R. Sperber, Karl E. Taylor, Yann Y. Planton, Eric Guilyardi, Paul Durack, Celine Bonfils, Mark D. Zelinka, Li-Wei Chao, Bo Dong, Charles Doutriaux, Chengzhu Zhang, Tom Vo, Jason Boutte, Michael F. Wehner, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Daehyun Kim, Zeyu Xue, Andrew T. Wittenberg, and John Krasting
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3919–3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3919-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3919-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce an open-source software, the PCMDI Metrics Package (PMP), developed for a comprehensive comparison of Earth system models (ESMs) with real-world observations. Using diverse metrics evaluating climatology, variability, and extremes simulated in thousands of simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), PMP aids in benchmarking model improvements across generations. PMP also enables efficient tracking of performance evolutions during ESM developments.
Haoyue Zuo, Yonggang Liu, Gaojun Li, Zhifang Xu, Liang Zhao, Zhengtang Guo, and Yongyun Hu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3949–3974, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3949-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3949-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Compared to the silicate weathering fluxes measured at large river basins, the current models tend to systematically overestimate the fluxes over the tropical region, which leads to an overestimation of the global total weathering flux. The most possible cause of such bias is found to be the overestimation of tropical surface erosion, which indicates that the tropical vegetation likely slows down physical erosion significantly. We propose a way of taking this effect into account in models.
Quentin Pikeroen, Didier Paillard, and Karine Watrin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3801–3814, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3801-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
All accurate climate models use equations with poorly defined parameters, where knobs for the parameters are turned to fit the observations. This process is called tuning. In this article, we use another paradigm. We use a thermodynamic hypothesis, the maximum entropy production, to compute temperatures, energy fluxes, and precipitation, where tuning is impossible. For now, the 1D vertical model is used for a tropical atmosphere. The correct order of magnitude of precipitation is computed.
Jishi Zhang, Peter Bogenschutz, Qi Tang, Philip Cameron-smith, and Chengzhu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3687–3731, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3687-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3687-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a regionally refined climate model that allows resolved convection and performed a 20-year projection to the end of the century. The model has a resolution of 3.25 km in California, which allows us to predict climate with unprecedented accuracy, and a resolution of 100 km for the rest of the globe to achieve efficient, self-consistent simulations. The model produces superior results in reproducing climate patterns over California that typical modern climate models cannot resolve.
Xiaohui Zhong, Xing Yu, and Hao Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3667–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3667-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In order to forecast localized warm-sector rainfall in the south China region, numerical weather prediction models are being run with finer grid spacing. The conventional convection parameterization (CP) performs poorly in the gray zone, necessitating the development of a scale-aware scheme. We propose a machine learning (ML) model to replace the scale-aware CP scheme. Evaluation against the original CP scheme has shown that the ML-based CP scheme can provide accurate and reliable predictions.
Taufiq Hassan, Kai Zhang, Jianfeng Li, Balwinder Singh, Shixuan Zhang, Hailong Wang, and Po-Lun Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3507–3532, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3507-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3507-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are an essential part of global aerosol models. Significant errors can exist from the loss of emission heterogeneity. We introduced an emission treatment that significantly improved aerosol emission heterogeneity in high-resolution model simulations, with improvements in simulated aerosol surface concentrations. The emission treatment will provide a more accurate representation of aerosol emissions and their effects on climate.
Feng Zhu, Julien Emile-Geay, Gregory J. Hakim, Dominique Guillot, Deborah Khider, Robert Tardif, and Walter A. Perkins
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3409–3431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate field reconstruction encompasses methods that estimate the evolution of climate in space and time based on natural archives. It is useful to investigate climate variations and validate climate models, but its implementation and use can be difficult for non-experts. This paper introduces a user-friendly Python package called cfr to make these methods more accessible, thanks to the computational and visualization tools that facilitate efficient and reproducible research on past climates.
Rose V. Palermo, J. Taylor Perron, Jason M. Soderblom, Samuel P. D. Birch, Alexander G. Hayes, and Andrew D. Ashton
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3433–3445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3433-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Models of rocky coastal erosion help us understand the controls on coastal morphology and evolution. In this paper, we present a simplified model of coastline erosion driven by either uniform erosion where coastline erosion is constant or wave-driven erosion where coastline erosion is a function of the wave power. This model can be used to evaluate how coastline changes reflect climate, sea-level history, material properties, and the relative influence of different erosional processes.
Safae Oumami, Joaquim Arteta, Vincent Guidard, Pierre Tulet, and Paul David Hamer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3385–3408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3385-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we coupled the SURFEX and MEGAN models. The aim of this coupling is to improve the estimation of biogenic fluxes by using the SURFEX canopy environment model. The coupled model results were validated and several sensitivity tests were performed. The coupled-model total annual isoprene flux is 442 Tg; this value is within the range of other isoprene estimates reported. The ultimate aim of this coupling is to predict the impact of climate change on biogenic emissions.
Lars Ackermann, Thomas Rackow, Kai Himstedt, Paul Gierz, Gregor Knorr, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3279–3301, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present long-term simulations with interactive icebergs in the Southern Ocean. By melting, icebergs reduce the temperature and salinity of the surrounding ocean. In our simulations, we find that this cooling effect of iceberg melting is not limited to the surface ocean but also reaches the deep ocean and propagates northward into all ocean basins. Additionally, the formation of deep-water masses in the Southern Ocean is enhanced.
Nanhong Xie, Tijian Wang, Xiaodong Xie, Xu Yue, Filippo Giorgi, Qian Zhang, Danyang Ma, Rong Song, Beiyao Xu, Shu Li, Bingliang Zhuang, Mengmeng Li, Min Xie, Natalya Andreeva Kilifarska, Georgi Gadzhev, and Reneta Dimitrova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3259–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3259-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3259-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, we coupled a regional climate chemistry model, RegCM-Chem, with a dynamic vegetation model, YIBs, to create a regional climate–chemistry–ecology model, RegCM-Chem–YIBs. We applied it to simulate climatic, chemical, and ecological parameters in East Asia and fully validated it on a variety of observational data. Results show that RegCM-Chem–YIBs model is a valuable tool for studying the terrestrial carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change on a regional scale.
Bryce E. Harrop, Jian Lu, L. Ruby Leung, William K. M. Lau, Kyu-Myong Kim, Brian Medeiros, Brian J. Soden, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Bosong Zhang, and Balwinder Singh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3111–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3111-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3111-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seven new experimental setups designed to interfere with cloud radiative heating have been added to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). These experiments include both those that test the mean impact of cloud radiative heating and those examining its covariance with circulations. This paper documents the code changes and steps needed to run these experiments. Results corroborate prior findings for how cloud radiative heating impacts circulations and rainfall patterns.
Mario C. Acosta, Sergi Palomas, Stella V. Paronuzzi Ticco, Gladys Utrera, Joachim Biercamp, Pierre-Antoine Bretonniere, Reinhard Budich, Miguel Castrillo, Arnaud Caubel, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Italo Epicoco, Uwe Fladrich, Sylvie Joussaume, Alok Kumar Gupta, Bryan Lawrence, Philippe Le Sager, Grenville Lister, Marie-Pierre Moine, Jean-Christophe Rioual, Sophie Valcke, Niki Zadeh, and Venkatramani Balaji
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3081–3098, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3081-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a collection of performance metrics gathered during the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), a worldwide initiative to study climate change. We analyse the metrics that resulted from collaboration efforts among many partners and models and describe our findings to demonstrate the utility of our study for the scientific community. The research contributes to understanding climate modelling performance on the current high-performance computing (HPC) architectures.
Sabine Doktorowski, Jan Kretzschmar, Johannes Quaas, Marc Salzmann, and Odran Sourdeval
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3099–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Especially over the midlatitudes, precipitation is mainly formed via the ice phase. In this study we focus on the initial snow formation process in the ICON-AES, the aggregation process. We use a stochastical approach for the aggregation parameterization and investigate the influence in the ICON-AES. Therefore, a distribution function of cloud ice is created, which is evaluated with satellite data. The new approach leads to cloud ice loss and an improvement in the process rate bias.
Katie R. Blackford, Matthew Kasoar, Chantelle Burton, Eleanor Burke, Iain Colin Prentice, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3063–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Peatlands are globally important stores of carbon which are being increasingly threatened by wildfires with knock-on effects on the climate system. Here we introduce a novel peat fire parameterization in the northern high latitudes to the INFERNO global fire model. Representing peat fires increases annual burnt area across the high latitudes, alongside improvements in how we capture year-to-year variation in burning and emissions.
Pengfei Shi, L. Ruby Leung, Bin Wang, Kai Zhang, Samson M. Hagos, and Shixuan Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3025–3040, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Improving climate predictions have profound socio-economic impacts. This study introduces a new weakly coupled land data assimilation (WCLDA) system for a coupled climate model. We demonstrate improved simulation of soil moisture and temperature in many global regions and throughout the soil layers. Furthermore, significant improvements are also found in reproducing the time evolution of the 2012 US Midwest drought. The WCLDA system provides the groundwork for future predictability studies.
Justin Peter, Elisabeth Vogel, Wendy Sharples, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Louise Wilson, Pandora Hope, Andrew Dowdy, Greg Kociuba, Sri Srikanthan, Vi Co Duong, Jake Roussis, Vjekoslav Matic, Zaved Khan, Alison Oke, Margot Turner, Stuart Baron-Hay, Fiona Johnson, Raj Mehrotra, Ashish Sharma, Marcus Thatcher, Ali Azarvinand, Steven Thomas, Ghyslaine Boschat, Chantal Donnelly, and Robert Argent
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2755–2781, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2755-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We detail the production of datasets and communication to end users of high-resolution projections of rainfall, runoff, and soil moisture for the entire Australian continent. This is important as previous projections for Australia were for small regions and used differing techniques for their projections, making comparisons difficult across Australia's varied climate zones. The data will be beneficial for research purposes and to aid adaptation to climate change.
Daniele Visioni, Alan Robock, Jim Haywood, Matthew Henry, Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Sarah J. Doherty, John Moore, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Olivier Boucher, Abu Syed, Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Roland Séférian, and Ilaria Quaglia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2583–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a new experimental protocol for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). In it, we describe the details of a new simulation of sunlight reflection using the stratospheric aerosols that climate models are supposed to run, and we explain the reasons behind each choice we made when defining the protocol.
Jose Rafael Guarin, Jonas Jägermeyr, Elizabeth A. Ainsworth, Fabio A. A. Oliveira, Senthold Asseng, Kenneth Boote, Joshua Elliott, Lisa Emberson, Ian Foster, Gerrit Hoogenboom, David Kelly, Alex C. Ruane, and Katrina Sharps
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2547–2567, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2547-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The effects of ozone (O3) stress on crop photosynthesis and leaf senescence were added to maize, rice, soybean, and wheat crop models. The modified models reproduced growth and yields under different O3 levels measured in field experiments and reported in the literature. The combined interactions between O3 and additional stresses were reproduced with the new models. These updated crop models can be used to simulate impacts of O3 stress under future climate change and air pollution scenarios.
Jiachen Lu, Negin Nazarian, Melissa Anne Hart, E. Scott Krayenhoff, and Alberto Martilli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2525–2545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2525-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2525-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study enhances urban canopy models by refining key assumptions. Simulations for various urban scenarios indicate discrepancies in turbulent transport efficiency for flow properties. We propose two modifications that involve characterizing diffusion coefficients for momentum and turbulent kinetic energy separately and introducing a physics-based
mass-fluxterm. These adjustments enhance the model's performance, offering more reliable temperature and surface flux estimates.
Justin L. Willson, Kevin A. Reed, Christiane Jablonowski, James Kent, Peter H. Lauritzen, Ramachandran Nair, Mark A. Taylor, Paul A. Ullrich, Colin M. Zarzycki, David M. Hall, Don Dazlich, Ross Heikes, Celal Konor, David Randall, Thomas Dubos, Yann Meurdesoif, Xi Chen, Lucas Harris, Christian Kühnlein, Vivian Lee, Abdessamad Qaddouri, Claude Girard, Marco Giorgetta, Daniel Reinert, Hiroaki Miura, Tomoki Ohno, and Ryuji Yoshida
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2493–2507, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2493-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2493-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate simulation of tropical cyclones (TCs) is essential to understanding their behavior in a changing climate. One way this is accomplished is through model intercomparison projects, where results from multiple climate models are analyzed to provide benchmark solutions for the wider climate modeling community. This study describes and analyzes the previously developed TC test case for nine climate models in an intercomparison project, providing solutions that aid in model development.
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate scientists want to better understand modern climate change. Thus, climate model experiments are performed and compared. The results of climate model experiments differ, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article gives insights into the challenges and outlines opportunities for further improving the understanding of climate change. It is based on views of a group of experts in atmospheric composition–climate interactions.
Yuwen Fan, Zhao Yang, Min-Hui Lo, Jina Hur, and Eun-Soon Im
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-38, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-38, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Irrigated agriculture in the North China Plain (NCP) has a significant impact on the local climate. To better understand this impact, we developed a specialized model specifically for the NCP region. This model allows us to simulate the double-cropping vegetation and the dynamic irrigation practices that are commonly employed in the NCP. This model shows improved performance in capturing the general crop growth, such as crop stages, biomass, crop yield, and vegetation greenness.
Sergey Danilov, Carolin Mehlmann, Dmitry Sidorenko, and Qiang Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2287–2297, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2287-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice models are a necessary component of climate models. At very high resolution they are capable of simulating linear kinematic features, such as leads, which are important for better prediction of heat exchanges between the ocean and atmosphere. Two new discretizations are described which improve the sea ice component of the Finite volumE Sea ice–Ocean Model (FESOM version 2) by allowing simulations of finer scales.
Yangke Liu, Qing Bao, Bian He, Xiaofei Wu, Jing Yang, Yimin Liu, Guoxiong Wu, Tao Zhu, Siyuan Zhou, Yao Tang, Ankang Qu, Yalan Fan, Anling Liu, Dandan Chen, Zhaoming Luo, Xing Hu, and Tongwen Wu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article gives an overview introduction of the IAP-CAS S2S (sub-seasonal to seasonal) ensemble forecasting system and MJO forecast evaluation of the system. Compared to other S2S models, the IAP-CAS model has its advantages but also exhibits some biases, including underdispersive ensemble, overestimated amplitude and faster propagation speed when forecasting MJO. We also provide the explanation towards these biases and prospects for further improvement of this system in the future.
Tian Gan, Gregory E. Tucker, Eric W. H. Hutton, Mark D. Piper, Irina Overeem, Albert J. Kettner, Benjamin Campforts, Julia M. Moriarty, Brianna Undzis, Ethan Pierce, and Lynn McCready
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2165–2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the design, implementation, and application of the CSDMS Data Components. The case studies demonstrate that the Data Components provide a consistent way to access heterogeneous datasets from multiple sources, and to seamlessly integrate them with various models for Earth surface process modeling. The Data Components support the creation of open data–model integration workflows to improve the research transparency and reproducibility.
Jérémy Bernard, Erwan Bocher, Matthieu Gousseff, François Leconte, and Elisabeth Le Saux Wiederhold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2077–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2077-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2077-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Geographical features may have a considerable effect on local climate. The local climate zone (LCZ) system proposed by Stewart and Oke (2012) is seen as a standard approach for classifying any zone according to a set of geographic indicators. While many methods already exist to map the LCZ, only a few tools are openly and freely available. We present the algorithm implemented in GeoClimate software to identify the LCZ of any place in the world using OpenStreetMap data.
Thomas Extier, Thibaut Caley, and Didier M. Roche
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2117–2139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Stable water isotopes are used to infer changes in the hydrological cycle for different time periods in climatic archive and climate models. We present the implementation of the δ2H and δ17O water isotopes in the coupled climate model iLOVECLIM and calculate the d- and 17O-excess. Results of a simulation under preindustrial conditions show that the model correctly reproduces the water isotope distribution in the atmosphere and ocean in comparison to data and other global circulation models.
Joseph P. Hollowed, Christiane Jablonowski, Hunter Y. Brown, Benjamin R. Hillman, Diana L. Bull, and Joseph L. Hart
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-335, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-335, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large volcanic eruptions deposit material into the upper-atmosphere, which is capable of altering temperature and wind patterns of the Earth's atmosphere for years following. This research describes a new method of simulating these effects in an idealized, efficient atmospheric model. A volcanic eruption of sulfur dioxide is described with a simplified set of physical rules, which eventually cools the planetary surface. This model has been designed as a testbed for climate attribution studies.
Marit Sandstad, Borgar Aamaas, Ane Nordlie Johansen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Glen Peters, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-196, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-196, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The CICERO-SCM has existed as a FORTRAN model since 1999 and consists of a part that calculates radiative forcing and concentrations from emissions, and an upwelling diffusion energy balance model of the ocean that calculates temperature change. In this paper we describe an updated version ported to python and publicly available at https://github.com/ciceroOslo/ciceroscm (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10548720). This version contains functionality for parallel runs and automatic calibration.
Kirsten L. Findell, Zun Yin, Eunkyo Seo, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Nathan P. Arnold, Nathaniel Chaney, Megan D. Fowler, Meng Huang, David M. Lawrence, Po-Lun Ma, and Joseph A. Santanello Jr.
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1869–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We outline a request for sub-daily data to accurately capture the process-level connections between land states, surface fluxes, and the boundary layer response. This high-frequency model output will allow for more direct comparison with observational field campaigns on process-relevant timescales, enable demonstration of inter-model spread in land–atmosphere coupling processes, and aid in targeted identification of sources of deficiencies and opportunities for improvement of the models.
Marlene Klockmann, Udo von Toussaint, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1765–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1765-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1765-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reconstructions of climate variability before the observational period rely on climate proxies and sophisticated statistical models to link the proxy information and climate variability. Existing models tend to underestimate the true magnitude of variability, especially if the proxies contain non-climatic noise. We present and test a promising new framework for climate-index reconstructions, based on Gaussian processes, which reconstructs robust variability estimates from noisy and sparse data.
Aaron A. Naidoo-Bagwell, Fanny M. Monteiro, Katharine R. Hendry, Scott Burgan, Jamie D. Wilson, Ben A. Ward, Andy Ridgwell, and Daniel J. Conley
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1729–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1729-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1729-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As an extension to the EcoGEnIE 1.0 Earth system model that features a diverse plankton community, EcoGEnIE 1.1 includes siliceous plankton diatoms and also considers their impact on biogeochemical cycles. With updates to existing nutrient cycles and the introduction of the silicon cycle, we see improved model performance relative to observational data. Through a more functionally diverse plankton community, the new model enables more comprehensive future study of ocean ecology.
Martin Butzin, Ying Ye, Christoph Völker, Özgür Gürses, Judith Hauck, and Peter Köhler
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1709–1727, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1709-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1709-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we describe the implementation of the carbon isotopes 13C and 14C into the marine biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1-REcoM3 and present results of long-term test simulations. Our model results are largely consistent with marine carbon isotope reconstructions for the pre-anthropogenic period, but also exhibit some discrepancies.
Sven Karsten, Hagen Radtke, Matthias Gröger, Ha T. M. Ho-Hagemann, Hossein Mashayekh, Thomas Neumann, and H. E. Markus Meier
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1689–1708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the development of a regional Earth System Model for the Baltic Sea region. In contrast to conventional coupling approaches, the presented model includes a flux calculator operating on a common exchange grid. This approach automatically ensures a locally consistent treatment of fluxes and simplifies the exchange of model components. The presented model can be used for various scientific questions, such as studies of natural variability and ocean–atmosphere interactions.
Skyler Graap and Colin M. Zarzycki
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1627–1650, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1627-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A key target for improving climate models is how low, bright clouds are predicted over tropical oceans, since they have important consequences for the Earth's energy budget. A climate model has been updated to improve the physical realism of the treatment of how momentum is moved up and down in the atmosphere. By comparing this updated model to real-world observations from balloon launches, it can be shown to more accurately depict atmospheric structure in trade-wind areas close to the Equator.
Marika M. Holland, Cecile Hannay, John Fasullo, Alexandra Jahn, Jennifer E. Kay, Michael Mills, Isla R. Simpson, William Wieder, Peter Lawrence, Erik Kluzek, and David Bailey
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1585–1602, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate evolves in response to changing forcings, as prescribed in simulations. Models and forcings are updated over time to reflect new understanding. This makes it difficult to attribute simulation differences to either model or forcing changes. Here we present new simulations which enable the separation of model structure and forcing influence between two widely used simulation sets. Results indicate a strong influence of aerosol emission uncertainty on historical climate.
Cited articles
Ahmed, N., Natarajan, T., and Rao, K. R.: Discrete cosine transform, IEEE
T. Comput., 100, 90–93, 1974. a
Ailleres, L.: The Loop 3D stochastic geological modelling platform –
development and applications, GMD Special Issue,
https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/special_issue1142.html (last access: 8 June 2022), data available at: https://loop3d.github.io/ (last access: 8 June 2022), 2020. a
Chen, M., Tompson, A. F., Mellors, R. J., and Abdalla, O.: An efficient
optimization of well placement and control for a geothermal prospect under
geological uncertainty, Appl. Energ., 137, 352–363, 2015. a
Dagan, I., Lee, L., and Pereira, F.: Similarity-based methods for word sense
disambiguation, in: Proceedings of the 35th ACL/8th EACL, arXiv preprint, 56–63, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.cmp-lg/9708010, 1997. a, b, c
de la Varga, M., Schaaf, A., and Wellmann, F.: GemPy 1.0: open-source stochastic geological modeling and inversion, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1-2019, 2019. a
Deza, M. M. and Deza, E.: Encyclopedia of distances, in: Encyclopedia of
distances, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 1–583,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-00234-2_1, 2009. a
Donnat, C. and Holmes, S.: Tracking network dynamics: A survey using graph
distances, Ann. Appl. Stat., 12, 971–1012,
https://doi.org/10.1214/18-AOAS1176, 2018. a, b
Franke, N. and Von Hippel, E.: Satisfying heterogeneous user needs via
innovation toolkits: the case of Apache security software, Res. Policy,
32, 1199–1215, https://doi.org/10.1080/01449290601111051, 2003. a
Gao, X., Xiao, B., Tao, D., and Li, X.: A survey of graph edit distance,
Pattern Anal. Appl., 13, 113–129,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10044-008-0141-y, 2010. a
Giraud, J., Ogarko, V., Lindsay, M., Pakyuz-Charrier, E., Jessell, M., and
Martin, R.: Sensitivity of constrained joint inversions to geological and
petrophysical input data uncertainties with posterior geological analysis,
Geophys. J. Int., 218, 666–688, 2019. a
Giraud, J., Ogarko, V., Martin, R., Jessell, M., and Lindsay, M.: Structural, petrophysical, and geological constraints in potential field inversion using the Tomofast-x v1.0 open-source code, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6681–6709, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6681-2021, 2021. a
Grose, L., Ailleres, L., Laurent, G., and Jessell, M.: LoopStructural 1.0: time-aware geological modelling, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3915–3937, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3915-2021, 2021. a, b
Guardiano, F. and Srivastava, R.: Multivariate geostatistics: beyond bivariate
moments, in: Geostatistics Troia 1992, edited by: Soares, A., 133–144,
Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-1739-5_12, 1993. a
Ipsen, M. and Mikhailov, A. S.: Erratum: Evolutionary reconstruction of
networks, Physical Review E, 67, 039901,
https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.67.039901, 2003. a
Jessell, M., Ogarko, V., de Rose, Y., Lindsay, M., Joshi, R., Piechocka, A., Grose, L., de la Varga, M., Ailleres, L., and Pirot, G.: Automated geological map deconstruction for 3D model construction using map2loop 1.0 and map2model 1.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5063–5092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5063-2021, 2021. a
Joshi, R., Madaiah, K., Jessell, M., Lindsay, M., and Pirot, G.: dh2loop 1.0: an open-source Python library for automated processing and classification of geological logs, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6711–6740, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6711-2021, 2021. a
Journel, A. G. and Huijbregts, C. J.: Mining geostatistics, Academic Press, New York, 600 p., ISBN 0123910501, 1978. a
Journel, A. G. and Deutsch, C. V.: Entropy and spatial disorder, Math.
Geol., 25, 329–355, 1993. a
Kujala, S.: Effective user involvement in product development by improving the
analysis of user needs, Behav. Inform. Technol., 27, 457–473,
2008. a
Kullback, S. and Leibler, R. A.: On information and sufficiency, Ann. Math. Stat., 22, 79–86, 1951. a
Laforgue, P., Clémençon, S., and d'Alché Buc, F.: Autoencoding
any data through kernel autoencoders, in: The 22nd International Conference
on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, PMLR, Naha, Okinawa, Japan, 1061–1069, http://proceedings.mlr.press/v89/laforgue19a/laforgue19a.pdf (last access: 9 June 2022), 2019. a
Laine, E., Luukas, J., Mäki, T., Kousa, J., Ruotsalainen, A., Suppala, I.,
Imaña, M., Heinonen, S., and Häkkinen, T.: The
Vihanti-Pyhäsalmi Area, in: 3D, 4D and Predictive Modelling of Major
Mineral Belts in Europe, edited by: Weihed, P., Springer
International Publishing, Cham, 123–144, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-17428-0_6, 2015. a
Lajaunie, C., Courrioux, G., and Manuel, L.: Foliation fields and 3D
cartography in geology: principles of a method based on potential
interpolation, Math. Geol., 29, 571–584, 1997. a
Laurent, G. and Grose, L.: A Hitchhiking Foray into the Structural Uncertainty Space, 2020 Ring meeting, Nancy, France, https://www.ring-team.org/research-publications/ring-meeting-papers?view=pub&id=4971 (last access: 9 June 2022), 2020. a
Lee, G., Gommers, R., Waselewski, F., Wohlfahrt, K., and O'Leary, A.:
PyWavelets: A Python package for wavelet analysis, Journal of Open Source
Software, 4, 1237, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.01237, 2019. a
Li, L., Boucher, A., and Caers, J.: SGEMS-UQ: An uncertainty quantification
toolkit for SGEMS, Comput. Geosci., 62, 12–24, 2014. a
Linde, N., Ginsbourger, D., Irving, J., Nobile, F., and Doucet, A.: On
uncertainty quantification in hydrogeology and hydrogeophysics, Adv.
Water Resour., 110, 166–181, 2017. a
Lindsay, M. D., Occhipinti, S., Laflamme, C., Aitken, A., and Ramos, L.: Mapping undercover: integrated geoscientific interpretation and 3D modelling of a Proterozoic basin, Solid Earth, 11, 1053–1077, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-1053-2020, 2020. a
Lochbühler, T., Pirot, G., Straubhaar, J., and Linde, N.: Conditioning of
Multiple-Point Statistics Facies Simulations to Tomographic Images,
Math. Geosci., 46, 625–645, 2013. a
Loop: An open source 3D probabilistic geological and geophysical modelling
platform, https://loop3d.org/ (last access: 9 June 2022), 2019. a
Mo, S., Shi, X., Lu, D., Ye, M., and Wu, J.: An adaptive Kriging surrogate
method for efficient uncertainty quantification with an application to
geological carbon sequestration modeling, Comput. Geosci., 125,
69–77, 2019. a
Osenbrück, K., Gläser, H.-R., Knöller, K., Weise, S. M., Möder,
M., Wennrich, R., Schirmer, M., Reinstorf, F., Busch, W., and Strauch, G.:
Sources and transport of selected organic micropollutants in urban
groundwater underlying the city of Halle (Saale), Germany, Water Res.,
41, 3259–3270, 2007. a
Pakyuz-Charrier, E., Lindsay, M., Ogarko, V., Giraud, J., and Jessell, M.: Monte Carlo simulation for uncertainty estimation on structural data in implicit 3-D geological modeling, a guide for disturbance distribution selection and parameterization, Solid Earth, 9, 385–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-385-2018, 2018. a, b
Pedregosa, F., Varoquaux, G., Gramfort, A., Michel, V., Thirion, B., Grisel,
O., Blondel, M., Prettenhofer, P., Weiss, R., Dubourg, V., Vanderplas, J.,
Passos, A., Cournapeau, D., Brucher, M., Perrot, M., and Duchesnay, E.:
Scikit-learn: Machine Learning in Python, J. Mach. Learn.
Res., 12, 2825–2830, 2011. a
Pellerin, J., Caumon, G., Julio, C., Mejia-Herrera, P., and Botella, A.:
Elements for measuring the complexity of 3D structural models: Connectivity
and geometry, Comput. Geosci., 76, 130–140, 2015. a
Pirot, G.: loopUI-0.1: uncertainty indicators for voxet ensembles,
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5118418,
https://github.com/Loop3D/uncertaintyIndicators/, 2021a. a
Pirot, G.: Loop3D/loopUI: v0.1 (v0.1-gamma), Zenodo [code] [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5656151, 2021b. a
Pirot, G., Lindsay, M., Grose, L., and Jessell, M.: A sensitivity analysis of
geological uncertainty to data and algorithmic uncertainty, AGU Fall
Meeting 2020, AGU, https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm20/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/673735 (last access: 9 June 2022), 2020. a
Raftery, A. E.: Bayesian model selection in structural equation models, Sage
Foc. Ed., 154, 163–163, 1993. a
Rényi, A.: On measures of information and entropy, in: Proceedings of the
4th Berkeley symposium on mathematics, Statistics And Probability, https://projecteuclid.org/proceedings/berkeley-symposium-on-mathematical-statistics-and-probability/Proceedings-of-the-Fourth-Berkeley-Symposium-on-Mathematical-Statistics-and/Chapter/On-Measures-of-Entropy-and-Information/bsmsp/1200512181?tab=ChapterArticleLink (last access: 9 June 2022), 1961. a
Sambridge, M.: A Parallel Tempering algorithm for probabilistic sampling and
multimodal optimization, Geophys. J. Int., 196, 357–374,
https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggt342, 2014. a
Scalzo, R., Lindsay, M., Jessell, M., Pirot, G., Giraud, J., Cripps, E., and Cripps, S.: Blockworlds 0.1.0: a demonstration of anti-aliased geophysics for probabilistic inversions of implicit and kinematic geological models, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3641–3662, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3641-2022, 2022. a
Scheidt, C. and Caers, J.: Uncertainty quantification in reservoir performance
using distances and kernel methods–application to a west africa deepwater
turbidite reservoir, SPE Journal, 14, 680–692, 2009. a
Scheidt, C., Jeong, C., Mukerji, T., and Caers, J.: Probabilistic falsification
of prior geologic uncertainty with seismic amplitude data: Application to a
turbidite reservoir case, Geophysics, 80, M89–M12, 2015. a
Scheidt, C., Li, L., and Caers, J.: Quantifying uncertainty in subsurface
systems, John Wiley & Sons, 304 pp., ISBN 978-1-119-32586-4, https://www.wiley.com/en-au/Quantifying+Uncertainty+in+Subsurface+Systems-p-9781119325864 (last access: 9 June 2022), 2018. a
Schölkopf, B., Smola, A., and Müller, K.-R.: Kernel principal component
analysis, in: International conference on artificial neural networks,
Springer, 583–588, https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0020217, 1997. a
Schweizer, D., Blum, P., and Butscher, C.: Uncertainty assessment in 3-D geological models of increasing complexity, Solid Earth, 8, 515–530, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-8-515-2017, 2017. a
Shimada, Y., Hirata, Y., Ikeguchi, T., and Aihara, K.: Graph distance for
complex networks, Sci. Rep., 6, 34944, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep34944, 2016. a, b
Suzuki, S. and Caers, J.: A distance-based prior model parameterization for
constraining solutions of spatial inverse problems, Math. Geosci., 40, 445–469, 2008. a
Thiele, S. T., Jessell, M. W., Lindsay, M., Ogarko, V., Wellmann, J. F., and
Pakyuz-Charrier, E.: The topology of geology 1: Topological analysis,
J. Struct. Geol., 91, 27–38, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2016.08.009,
2016. a, b
Tubau, I., Vázquez-Suñé, E., Carrera, J., Valhondo, C., and
Criollo, R.: Quantification of groundwater recharge in urban environments,
Sci. Total Environ., 592, 391–402, 2017. a
Vallender, S.: Calculation of the Wasserstein distance between probability
distributions on the line, Theor. Probab. Appl., 18,
784–786, 1974. a
Wellmann, F. and Caumon, G.: 3-D Structural geological models: Concepts,
methods, and uncertainties, Adv. Geophys., 59, 1–121, 2018. a
Wilcox, R. R.: Introduction to robust estimation and hypothesis testing,
Academic press, 690 pp., https://doi.org/10.1016/C2010-0-67044-1, 2011.
a
Witter, J. B., Trainor-Guitton, W. J., and Siler, D. L.: Uncertainty and risk
evaluation during the exploration stage of geothermal development: A review,
Geothermics, 78, 233–242, 2019. a
Short summary
Results of a survey launched among practitioners in the mineral industry show that despite recognising the importance of uncertainty quantification it is not very well performed due to lack of data, time requirements, poor tracking of interpretations and relative complexity of uncertainty quantification. To alleviate the latter, we provide an open-source set of local and global indicators to measure geological uncertainty among an ensemble of geological models.
Results of a survey launched among practitioners in the mineral industry show that despite...
