Articles | Volume 13, issue 12
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6201–6213, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6201-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue: JULES-crop: a parameterisation of crops in the JULES land...
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6201–6213, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6201-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper 07 Dec 2020
Model description paper | 07 Dec 2020
Calibrating soybean parameters in JULES 5.0 from the US-Ne2/3 FLUXNET sites and the SoyFACE-O3 experiment
Felix Leung et al.
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Ana Bastos, René Orth, Markus Reichstein, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Sönke Zaehle, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Pierre Gentine, Emilie Joetzjer, Sebastian Lienert, Tammas Loughran, Patrick C. McGuire, Sungmin O, Julia Pongratz, and Stephen Sitch
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-19, 2021
Preprint under review for ESD
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Temperate biomes in Europe are not prone to recurrent dry and hot conditions in summer. However, these conditions may become more frequent in the coming decades. Because stress conditions can leave legacies for many years, this may result in reduced ecosystem resilience under recurrent stress. In 2018 and 2019, central Europe was stricken by two consecutive extreme dry and hot summers, which provide two case-studies to understand how such consecutive events impact European ecosystems.
Jiachen Zhu, Amos P. K. Tai, and Steve Hung Lam Yim
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-165, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-165, 2021
Preprint under review for ACP
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This study assessed O3 damage to plant and the subsequent effects on meteorology and air quality in China whereby O3, meteorology and vegetation can co-evolve with each other. We provided comprehensive understanding about how O3-vegetation impacts adversely affect plant growth and crop production, contribute to global warming and severe O3 air pollution in China. Our findings clearly pinpoint the need to consider the O3 damage effects in both air quality studies and climate change studies.
Ka Ming Fung, Maria Val Martin, and Amos P. K. Tai
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-63, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-63, 2021
Preprint under review for BG
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Fertilizer-induced ammonia detrimentally affects the environment by not only directly damaging ecosystems but also indirectly altering climate and soil fertility. To quantify these secondary impacts, we enabled a model (CESM) to simulate ammonia emission, chemical evolution, and deposition as a continuous cycle. We found that, if fertilizer use is to soar by 30 % from today's level, these counteracting impacts will result in a 23 % rise in ammonia emission and 7.3 % in food production globally.
Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Andrew J. Pitman, Daniel Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Anthony P. Walker, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-66, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-66, 2021
Preprint under review for BG
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The Australian continent is included in global assessments of the carbon cycle such as the global carbon budget, yet the performance of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) over Australia has rarely been evaluated. We assessed simulations by an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models over Australia and highlighted a number of key areas that lead to model divergence on both short (interannual) and long (decadal) timescales.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, Alexis Hannart, Stephen Sitch, Vanessa Haverd, Danica Lombardozzi, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Daniel S. Goll, Etsushi Kato, Hanqin Tian, Almut Arneth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Sönke Zaehle, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-37, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-37, 2021
Preprint under review for BG
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Satellite observations since the early 1980s show that Earth's greening trend is slowing down and that browning clusters are emerging, especially in the last two decades. A collection of model simulations in conjunction with causal theory points at climatic changes as a key driver of vegetation changes in natural ecosystems. Most models underestimate the observed vegetation browning, especially in tropical rainforests, which could be due to an excessive CO2 fertilization effect in models.
Louise Chini, George Hurtt, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Stephen Sitch, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Lei Ma, Lesley Ott, Julia Pongratz, and Benjamin Poulter
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-388, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-388, 2021
Preprint under review for ESSD
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Carbon emissions from land-use change are a large and uncertain component of the global carbon cycle. The Land-Use Harmonization 2 dataset was developed as an input to carbon-climate simulations and has been updated annually for the Global Carbon Budget (GCB) assessments. Here we discuss the methodology for producing these annual LUH2 updates, and describe the 2019 version which used new cropland and grazing land data inputs for the globally important region of Brazil.
Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Ben T. Johnson, Ron Kahana, James Keeble, Byeonghyeon Kim, Olaf Morgenstern, Jane P. Mulcahy, Mark Richardson, Eddy Robertson, Jeongbyn Seo, Sungbo Shim, João C. Teixeira, Steven T. Turnock, Jonny Williams, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Stephanie Woodward, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1211–1243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, 2021
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This paper calculates how changes in emissions and/or concentrations of different atmospheric constituents since the pre-industrial era have altered the Earth's energy budget at the present day using a metric called effective radiative forcing. The impact of land use change is also assessed. We find that individual contributions do not add linearly, and different Earth system interactions can affect the magnitude of the calculated effective radiative forcing.
Camilla Mathison, Andrew J. Challinor, Chetan Deva, Pete Falloon, Sébastien Garrigues, Sophie Moulin, Karina Williams, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 437–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-437-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-437-2021, 2021
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Sequential cropping (also known as multiple or double cropping) is a common cropping system, particularly in tropical regions. Typically, land surface models only simulate a single crop per year. To understand how sequential crops influence surface fluxes, we implement sequential cropping in JULES to simulate all the crops grown within a year at a given location in a seamless way. We demonstrate the method using a site in Avignon, four locations in India and a regional run for two Indian states.
Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tammas Loughran, Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Felix Havermann, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniel S. Goll, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Benjamin Poulter, Stephen Sitch, Michael O. Sullivan, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Soenke Zaehle, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-93, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-93, 2021
Revised manuscript under review for ESD
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This study, for the first time, presents a spatio-temporally explicit comparison of different model-derived land-use and land cover change emissions (ELUCs) based on the TRENDY v8 dynamic global vegetation models (used in the Global Carbon Budget of 2019). We find huge regional ELUC differences resulting from environmental assumptions, simulated periods and the timing of land use and land cover changes and propose a modified definition to standardize ELUC attribution across time and space.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020
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The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Shakirudeen Lawal, Stephen Sitch, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Hao-Wei Wey, Pierre Friedlingstein, Hanqin Tian, and Bruce Hewitson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-528, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-528, 2020
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
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While few studies have investigated the impacts of drought on vegetation, their findings are limited by the choice of vegetation proxy and model. Here, we used the LAI as proxy, and DGVMs to simulate drought impacts because the models use observationally-derived climate. We found that the semi-desert biome respond strongly to drought in the summer season, while the tropical forest biome shows weak response. This study could help target areas to improve drought monitoring and simulation.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Johannes Meyerholt, Sönke Zaehle, Pierre Friedlingstein, Victor Brovkin, Yuanchao Fan, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, Hanna Lee, Daniele Peano, Benjamin Smith, David Wårlind, and Andy J. Wiltshire
Biogeosciences, 17, 5129–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, 2020
Lang Wang, Amos P. K. Tai, Chi-Yung Tam, Mehliyar Sadiq, Peng Wang, and Kevin K. W. Cheung
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11349–11369, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11349-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11349-2020, 2020
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We investigate the effects of future land use and land cover change (LULCC) on surface ozone air quality worldwide and find that LULCC can significantly influence ozone in North America and Europe via modifying surface energy balance, boundary-layer meteorology, and regional circulation. The strength of such “biogeophysical effects” of LULCC is strongly dependent on forest type and generally greater than the “biogeochemical effects” via changing deposition and emission fluxes alone.
Anna B. Harper, Karina E. Williams, Patrick C. McGuire, Maria Carolina Duran Rojas, Debbie Hemming, Anne Verhoef, Chris Huntingford, Lucy Rowland, Toby Marthews, Cleiton Breder Eller, Camilla Mathison, Rodolfo L. B. Nobrega, Nicola Gedney, Pier Luigi Vidale, Fred Otu-Larbi, Divya Pandey, Sebastien Garrigues, Azin Wright, Darren Slevin, Martin G. De Kauwe, Eleanor Blyth, Jonas Ärdo, Andrew Black, Damien Bonal, Nina Buchmann, Benoit Burban, Kathrin Fuchs, Agnès de Grandcourt, Ivan Mammarella, Lutz Merbold, Leonardo Montagnani, Yann Nouvellon, Natalia Restrepo-Coupe, and Georg Wohlfahrt
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-273, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-273, 2020
Preprint under review for GMD
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Drought is predicted to increase in the future due to climate change. Plants respond to drier soils by reducing stomatal conductance, in order to conserve water and avoid damage, and this response is important for the global carbon cycle and local/regional climate feedbacks. We evaluated ten representations of stress in the JULES land-surface model against site observations, and make recommendations for future use of the model.
Arthur P. K. Argles, Jonathan R. Moore, Chris Huntingford, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Anna B. Harper, Chris D. Jones, and Peter M. Cox
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4067–4089, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4067-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4067-2020, 2020
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The Robust Ecosystem Demography (RED) model simulates cohorts of vegetation through mass classes. RED establishes a framework for representing demographic changes through competition, growth, and mortality across the size distribution of a forest. The steady state of the model can be solved analytically, enabling initialization. When driven by mean growth rates from a land-surface model, RED is able to fit the observed global vegetation map, giving a map of implicit mortality rates.
Daniele Peano, Deborah Hemming, Stefano Materia, Christine Delire, Yuanchao Fan, Emilie Joetzjer, Hanna Lee, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Taejin Park, Philippe Peylin, David Wårlind, Andy Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-319, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-319, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
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Global climate modelsare the scientist's
toolsused in studying past, present, and future climate conditions. This work examines the ability of a group of our tools in reproducing and capturing the right timing and length of the season when plants show their green leaves. This season, indeed, is fundamental for CO2 exchanges between land and atmosphere, and climate. This work shows that discrepancies compared to observations remain demanding further polishing of these tools.
James A. Franke, Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, Alex C. Ruane, Jonas Jägermeyr, Abigail Snyder, Marie Dury, Pete D. Falloon, Christian Folberth, Louis François, Tobias Hank, R. Cesar Izaurralde, Ingrid Jacquemin, Curtis Jones, Michelle Li, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Meridel Phillips, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Ashwan Reddy, Karina Williams, Ziwei Wang, Florian Zabel, and Elisabeth J. Moyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3995–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3995-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3995-2020, 2020
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Improving our understanding of the impacts of climate change on crop yields will be critical for global food security in the next century. The models often used to study the how climate change may impact agriculture are complex and costly to run. In this work, we describe a set of global crop model emulators (simplified models) developed under the Agricultural Model Intercomparison Project. Crop model emulators make agricultural simulations more accessible to policy or decision makers.
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020
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Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Christopher J. Smith, Ryan J. Kramer, Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, William Collins, Adriana Sima, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Seiji Yukimoto, Jason Cole, David Paynter, Hideo Shiogama, Fiona M. O'Connor, Eddy Robertson, Andy Wiltshire, Timothy Andrews, Cécile Hannay, Ron Miller, Larissa Nazarenko, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Stephanie Fiedler, Anna Lewinschal, Chloe Mackallah, Martin Dix, Robert Pincus, and Piers M. Forster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9591–9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, 2020
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The spread in effective radiative forcing for both CO2 and aerosols is narrower in the latest CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) generation than in CMIP5. For the case of CO2 it is likely that model radiation parameterisations have improved. Tropospheric and stratospheric radiative adjustments to the forcing behave differently for different forcing agents, and there is still significant diversity in how clouds respond to forcings, particularly for total anthropogenic forcing.
Andrew J. Wiltshire, Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris D. Jones, Peter M. Cox, Taraka Davies-Barnard, Pierre Friedlingstein, Anna B. Harper, Spencer Liddicoat, Stephen A. Sitch, and Sonke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-205, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-205, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Limited nitrogen availbility can restrict the growth of plants and their ability to assimilate carbon. It is important to include the impact of this process on the global land carbon cycle. This paper presents a model of the coupled land carbon and nitrogen cycle which is included within the UK Earth System model to improve projections of cliamte change and impacts on ecosystems.
Stijn Hantson, Douglas I. Kelley, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Sally Archibald, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Thomas Hickler, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, I. Colin Prentice, Tim Sheehan, Stephen Sitch, Lina Teckentrup, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3299–3318, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, 2020
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Global fire–vegetation models are widely used, but there has been limited evaluation of how well they represent various aspects of fire regimes. Here we perform a systematic evaluation of simulations made by nine FireMIP models in order to quantify their ability to reproduce a range of fire and vegetation benchmarks. While some FireMIP models are better at representing certain aspects of the fire regime, no model clearly outperforms all other models across the full range of variables assessed.
Simon Jones, Lucy Rowland, Peter Cox, Deborah Hemming, Andy Wiltshire, Karina Williams, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Junjie Liu, Antonio C. L. da Costa, Patrick Meir, Maurizio Mencuccini, and Anna B. Harper
Biogeosciences, 17, 3589–3612, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3589-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3589-2020, 2020
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Non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) are an important set of molecules that help plants to grow and respire when photosynthesis is restricted by extreme climate events. In this paper we present a simple model of NSC storage and assess the effect that it has on simulations of vegetation at the ecosystem scale. Our model has the potential to significantly change predictions of plant behaviour in global vegetation models, which would have large implications for predictions of the future climate.
Garry D. Hayman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Chris Huntingford, Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, William Collins, Christopher Webber, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Joanna I. House, Jonathan C. Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, and Nicola Gedney
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-24, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-24, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
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In the Paris Climate Agreement, countries agreed to keep global warming since pre-industrial times below 2 °C and ideally below 1.5 °C, requiring major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. We investigate the regional effectiveness of lowering methane emissions from human activities, (re)afforestation, and growing bioenergy crops. Methane reduction always helps, especially for major methane-emitting regions. However, the preferred land-management strategy and its effectiveness is more variable.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
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The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Doug McNeall, Jonny Williams, Richard Betts, Ben Booth, Peter Challenor, Peter Good, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2487–2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2487-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2487-2020, 2020
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In the climate model FAMOUS, matching the modelled Amazon rainforest to observations required different land surface parameter settings than for other forests. It was unclear if this discrepancy was due to a bias in the modelled climate or an error in the land surface component of the model. Correcting the climate of the model with a statistical model corrects the simulation of the Amazon forest, suggesting that the land surface component of the model is not the source of the discrepancy.
James A. Franke, Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, Alex C. Ruane, Jonas Jägermeyr, Juraj Balkovic, Philippe Ciais, Marie Dury, Pete D. Falloon, Christian Folberth, Louis François, Tobias Hank, Munir Hoffmann, R. Cesar Izaurralde, Ingrid Jacquemin, Curtis Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Marian Koch, Michelle Li, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Meridel Phillips, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Ashwan Reddy, Xuhui Wang, Karina Williams, Florian Zabel, and Elisabeth J. Moyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2315–2336, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020, 2020
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Concerns about food security under climate change motivate efforts to better understand future changes in crop yields. Crop models, which represent plant biology, are necessary tools for this purpose since they allow representing future climate, farmer choices, and new agricultural geographies. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment, under the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), is designed to evaluate and improve crop models.
Shufen Pan, Naiqing Pan, Hanqin Tian, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Hao Shi, Vivek K. Arora, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Catherine Ottlé, Benjamin Poulter, Sönke Zaehle, and Steven W. Running
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1509, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1485-2020, 2020
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Evapotranspiration (ET) links global water, carbon and energy cycles. We used 4 remote sensing models, 2 machine-learning algorithms and 14 land surface models to analyze the changes in global terrestrial ET. These three categories of approaches agreed well in terms of ET intensity. For 1982–2011, all models showed that Earth greening enhanced terrestrial ET. The small interannual variability of global terrestrial ET suggests it has a potential planetary boundary of around 600 mm yr-1.
Martin Jung, Christopher Schwalm, Mirco Migliavacca, Sophia Walther, Gustau Camps-Valls, Sujan Koirala, Peter Anthoni, Simon Besnard, Paul Bodesheim, Nuno Carvalhais, Frédéric Chevallier, Fabian Gans, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Philipp Köhler, Kazuhito Ichii, Atul K. Jain, Junzhi Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Jacob A. Nelson, Michael O'Sullivan, Martijn Pallandt, Dario Papale, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Christian Rödenbeck, Stephen Sitch, Gianluca Tramontana, Anthony Walker, Ulrich Weber, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 17, 1343–1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1343-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1343-2020, 2020
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We test the approach of producing global gridded carbon fluxes based on combining machine learning with local measurements, remote sensing and climate data. We show that we can reproduce seasonal variations in carbon assimilated by plants via photosynthesis and in ecosystem net carbon balance. The ecosystem’s mean carbon balance and carbon flux trends require cautious interpretation. The analysis paves the way for future improvements of the data-driven assessment of carbon fluxes.
Xu Yue, Hong Liao, Huijun Wang, Tianyi Zhang, Nadine Unger, Stephen Sitch, Zhaozhong Feng, and Jia Yang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2353–2366, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2353-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2353-2020, 2020
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We explore ecosystem responses in China to 1.5 °C global warming under stabilized versus transient pathways. Remarkably, GPP shows 30 % higher enhancement in the stabilized than the transient pathway because of the lower ozone (smaller damages to photosynthesis) and fewer aerosols (higher light availability) in the former pathway. Our analyses suggest that an associated reduction of CO2 and pollution emissions brings more benefits to ecosystems in China via 1.5 °C global warming.
Andrew J. Wiltshire, Maria Carolina Duran Rojas, John M. Edwards, Nicola Gedney, Anna B. Harper, Andrew J. Hartley, Margaret A. Hendry, Eddy Robertson, and Kerry Smout-Day
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 483–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-483-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-483-2020, 2020
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We present the Global Land (GL) configuration of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). JULES-GL7 can be used to simulate the exchange of heat, water and momentum over land and is therefore applicable for helping understand past and future changes, and forms the land component of the HadGEM3-GC3.1 climate model. The configuration is freely available subject to licence restrictions.
Ewan Pinnington, Tristan Quaife, Amos Lawless, Karina Williams, Tim Arkebauer, and Dave Scoby
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 55–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-55-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-55-2020, 2020
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We present LAVENDAR, a mathematical method for combining observations with models of the terrestrial environment. Here we use it to improve estimates of crop growth in the UK Met Office land surface model. However, the method is model agnostic, requires no modification to the underlying code and can be applied to any part of the model. In the example application we improve estimates of maize yield by 74 % by assimilating observations of leaf area, crop height and photosynthesis.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
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The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Anthony Y. H. Wong, Jeffrey A. Geddes, Amos P. K. Tai, and Sam J. Silva
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14365–14385, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14365-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14365-2019, 2019
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Dry deposition is an important, but highly uncertain, sink for surface ozone. Several popular parameterizations exist to model this process, which vary with respect to how they depend on land cover and environmental variables. Here, we predict ozone dry deposition globally over 30 years, comparing four different approaches. We find that the choice of dry deposition parameterization affects the distribution, seasonal means, long-term trends, and interannual variability of surface ozone.
Lina Teckentrup, Sandy P. Harrison, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Joe R. Melton, Matthew Forrest, Fang Li, Chao Yue, Almut Arneth, Thomas Hickler, Stephen Sitch, and Gitta Lasslop
Biogeosciences, 16, 3883–3910, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, 2019
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This study compares simulated burned area of seven global vegetation models provided by the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) since 1900. We investigate the influence of five forcing factors: atmospheric CO2, population density, land–use change, lightning and climate.
We find that the anthropogenic factors lead to the largest spread between models. Trends due to climate are mostly not significant but climate strongly influences the inter-annual variability of burned area.
Fang Li, Maria Val Martin, Meinrat O. Andreae, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Johannes W. Kaiser, Gitta Lasslop, Chao Yue, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Erik Kluzek, Xiaohong Liu, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Daniel S. Ward, Anton Darmenov, Thomas Hickler, Charles Ichoku, Brian I. Magi, Stephen Sitch, Guido R. van der Werf, Christine Wiedinmyer, and Sam S. Rabin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12545–12567, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019, 2019
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Fire emissions are critical for atmospheric composition, climate, carbon cycle, and air quality. We provide the first global multi-model fire emission reconstructions for 1700–2012, including carbon and 33 species of trace gases and aerosols, based on the nine state-of-the-art global fire models that participated in FireMIP. We also provide information on the recent status and limitations of the model-based reconstructions and identify the main uncertainty sources in their long-term changes.
Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Frédéric Chevallier, Christian Rödenbeck, Ashley P. Ballantyne, Fabienne Maignan, Yi Yin, Marcos Fernández-Martínez, Pierre Friedlingstein, Josep Peñuelas, Shilong L. Piao, Stephen Sitch, William K. Smith, Xuhui Wang, Zaichun Zhu, Vanessa Haverd, Etsushi Kato, Atul K. Jain, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Poulter, and Dan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12361–12375, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12361-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12361-2019, 2019
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Here we show that land-surface models improved their ability to simulate the increase in the amplitude of seasonal CO2-cycle exchange (SCANBP) by ecosystems compared to estimates by two atmospheric inversions. We find a dominant role of vegetation growth over boreal Eurasia to the observed increase in SCANBP, strongly driven by CO2 fertilization, and an overall negative effect of temperature on SCANBP. Biases can be explained by the sensitivity of simulated microbial respiration to temperature.
Karina E. Williams, Anna B. Harper, Chris Huntingford, Lina M. Mercado, Camilla T. Mathison, Pete D. Falloon, Peter M. Cox, and Joon Kim
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3207–3240, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3207-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3207-2019, 2019
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Data from the First ISLSCP Field Experiment, 1987–1989, is used to assess how well the JULES land-surface model simulates water stress in tallgrass prairie vegetation. We find that JULES simulates a decrease in key carbon and water cycle variables during the dry period, as expected, but that it does not capture the shape of the diurnal cycle on these days. These results will be used to inform future model development as part of wider evaluation efforts.
Sarah Shannon, Robin Smith, Andy Wiltshire, Tony Payne, Matthias Huss, Richard Betts, John Caesar, Aris Koutroulis, Darren Jones, and Stephan Harrison
The Cryosphere, 13, 325–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, 2019
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We present global glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding 2 °C global average warming. The ice loss contribution to sea level rise for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet is 215.2 ± 21.3 mm. Such large ice losses will have consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems.
Florent F. Malavelle, Jim M. Haywood, Lina M. Mercado, Gerd A. Folberth, Nicolas Bellouin, Stephen Sitch, and Paulo Artaxo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1301–1326, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1301-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1301-2019, 2019
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Diffuse light can increase the efficiency of vegetation photosynthesis. Diffuse light results from scattering by either clouds or aerosols in the atmosphere. During the dry season biomass burning (BB) on the edges of the Amazon rainforest contributes significantly to the aerosol burden over the entire region. We show that despite a modest effect of change in light conditions, the overall impact of BB aerosols on the vegetation is still important when indirect climate feedbacks are considered.
Matthias Forkel, Niels Andela, Sandy P. Harrison, Gitta Lasslop, Margreet van Marle, Emilio Chuvieco, Wouter Dorigo, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Fang Li, Joe Melton, Stephen Sitch, Chao Yue, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 16, 57–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, 2019
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Weather, humans, and vegetation control the occurrence of fires. In this study we find that global fire–vegetation models underestimate the strong increase of burned area with higher previous-season plant productivity in comparison to satellite-derived relationships.
Chantelle Burton, Richard Betts, Manoel Cardoso, Ted R. Feldpausch, Anna Harper, Chris D. Jones, Douglas I. Kelley, Eddy Robertson, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 179–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-179-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-179-2019, 2019
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Fire and land-use change are important disturbances within the Earth system, and their inclusion in models is critical to enable the correct simulation of vegetation cover. Here we describe developments to the land surface model JULES to represent explicit land-use change and fire and to assess the effects of each process on present day vegetation compared to observations. Using historical land-use data and the fire model INFERNO, overall model results are improved by the developments.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2141–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2018 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Shan S. Zhou, Amos P. K. Tai, Shihan Sun, Mehliyar Sadiq, Colette L. Heald, and Jeffrey A. Geddes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14133–14148, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14133-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14133-2018, 2018
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Surface ozone pollution harms vegetation. As plants play key roles shaping air quality, the plant damage may further worsen air pollution. We use various computer models to examine such feedback effects, and find that ozone-induced decline in leaf density can lead to much higher ozone levels in forested regions, mostly due to the reduced ability of leaves to absorb pollutants. This study highlights the importance of considering the two-way interactions between plants and air pollution.
Chris Huntingford, Rebecca J. Oliver, Lina M. Mercado, and Stephen Sitch
Biogeosciences, 15, 5415–5422, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5415-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5415-2018, 2018
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Raised ozone levels impact plant stomatal opening and thus photosynthesis. Most models describe this as a suppression of stomata opening. Field evidence suggests more complexity, as ozone damage may make stomatal response
sluggish. In some circumstances, this causes stomata to be more open – a concern during drought conditions – by increasing transpiration. To guide interpretation and modelling of field measurements, we present an equation for sluggish effects, via a single tau parameter.
Jun Wang, Ning Zeng, Meirong Wang, Fei Jiang, Jingming Chen, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Ziqiang Jiang, Weimin Ju, Sebastian Lienert, Julia Nabel, Stephen Sitch, Nicolas Viovy, Hengmao Wang, and Andrew J. Wiltshire
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10333–10345, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10333-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10333-2018, 2018
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Based on the Mauna Loa CO2 records and TRENDY multi-model historical simulations, we investigate the different impacts of EP and CP El Niños on interannual carbon cycle variability. Composite analysis indicates that the evolutions of CO2 growth rate anomalies have three clear differences in terms of precursors (negative and neutral), amplitudes (strong and weak), and durations of peak (Dec–Apr and Oct–Jan) during EP and CP El Niños, respectively. We further discuss their terrestrial mechanisms.
Rebecca J. Oliver, Lina M. Mercado, Stephen Sitch, David Simpson, Belinda E. Medlyn, Yan-Shih Lin, and Gerd A. Folberth
Biogeosciences, 15, 4245–4269, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4245-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4245-2018, 2018
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Potential gains in terrestrial carbon sequestration over Europe from elevated CO2 can be partially offset by concurrent rises in tropospheric O3. The land surface model JULES was run in a factorial suite of experiments showing that by 2050 simulated GPP was reduced by 4 to 9 % due to plant O3 damage. Large regional variations exist with larger impacts identified for temperate compared to boreal regions. Plant O3 damage was greatest over the twentieth century and declined into the future.
Anna B. Harper, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Peter M. Cox, Pierre Friedlingstein, Chris D. Jones, Lina M. Mercado, Stephen Sitch, Karina Williams, and Carolina Duran-Rojas
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2857–2873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2857-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2857-2018, 2018
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Dynamic global vegetation models are used for studying historical and future changes to vegetation and the terrestrial carbon cycle. JULES is a DGVM that represents the land surface in the UK Earth System Model. We compared simulated gross and net primary productivity of vegetation, vegetation distribution, and aspects of the transient carbon cycle to observational datasets. JULES was able to accurately reproduce many aspects of the terrestrial carbon cycle with the recent improvements.
Gregory Duveiller, Giovanni Forzieri, Eddy Robertson, Wei Li, Goran Georgievski, Peter Lawrence, Andy Wiltshire, Philippe Ciais, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Almut Arneth, and Alessandro Cescatti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1265–1279, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1265-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1265-2018, 2018
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Changing the vegetation cover of the Earth's surface can alter the local energy balance, which can result in a local warming or cooling depending on the specific vegetation transition, its timing and location, as well as on the background climate. While models can theoretically simulate these effects, their skill is not well documented across space and time. Here we provide a dedicated framework to evaluate such models against measurements derived from satellite observations.
Donghai Wu, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Alan K. Knapp, Kevin Wilcox, Michael Bahn, Melinda D. Smith, Sara Vicca, Simone Fatichi, Jakob Zscheischler, Yue He, Xiangyi Li, Akihiko Ito, Almut Arneth, Anna Harper, Anna Ukkola, Athanasios Paschalis, Benjamin Poulter, Changhui Peng, Daniel Ricciuto, David Reinthaler, Guangsheng Chen, Hanqin Tian, Hélène Genet, Jiafu Mao, Johannes Ingrisch, Julia E. S. M. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Lena R. Boysen, Markus Kautz, Michael Schmitt, Patrick Meir, Qiuan Zhu, Roland Hasibeder, Sebastian Sippel, Shree R. S. Dangal, Stephen Sitch, Xiaoying Shi, Yingping Wang, Yiqi Luo, Yongwen Liu, and Shilong Piao
Biogeosciences, 15, 3421–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, 2018
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Our results indicate that most ecosystem models do not capture the observed asymmetric responses under normal precipitation conditions, suggesting an overestimate of the drought effects and/or underestimate of the watering impacts on primary productivity, which may be the result of inadequate representation of key eco-hydrological processes. Collaboration between modelers and site investigators needs to be strengthened to improve the specific processes in ecosystem models in following studies.
Danny M. Leung, Amos P. K. Tai, Loretta J. Mickley, Jonathan M. Moch, Aaron van Donkelaar, Lu Shen, and Randall V. Martin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6733–6748, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6733-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6733-2018, 2018
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This paper investigates how large-scale weather systems control fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality in China. We show that winter monsoons, onshore winds and frontal rains can drive daily PM2.5 variability in different regions of China. We further project future PM2.5 concentration change by 2050s due to climate change, and verify that climate change has little benefit on future PM2.5 in Beijing, implying cutting down emissions is necessary to mitigate pollutions in megacities of China.
Stephan Harrison, Jeffrey S. Kargel, Christian Huggel, John Reynolds, Dan H. Shugar, Richard A. Betts, Adam Emmer, Neil Glasser, Umesh K. Haritashya, Jan Klimeš, Liam Reinhardt, Yvonne Schaub, Andy Wiltshire, Dhananjay Regmi, and Vít Vilímek
The Cryosphere, 12, 1195–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018, 2018
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Most mountain glaciers have receded throughout the last century in response to global climate change. This recession produces a range of natural hazards including glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). We have produced the first global inventory of GLOFs associated with the failure of moraine dams and show, counterintuitively, that these have reduced in frequency over recent decades. In this paper we explore the reasons for this pattern.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, Andrew C. Manning, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Oliver D. Andrews, Vivek K. Arora, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Meike Becker, Richard A. Betts, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Catherine E. Cosca, Jessica Cross, Kim Currie, Thomas Gasser, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Christopher W. Hunt, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Markus Kautz, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Ivan Lima, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, X. Antonio Padin, Anna Peregon, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Janet Reimer, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Steven van Heuven, Nicolas Viovy, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Watson, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Dan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 405–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2017 describes data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. It is the 12th annual update and the 6th published in this journal.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Shushi Peng, Chao Yue, Yilong Wang, Martin Thurner, Sassan S. Saatchi, Almut Arneth, Valerio Avitabile, Nuno Carvalhais, Anna B. Harper, Etsushi Kato, Charles Koven, Yi Y. Liu, Julia E.M.S. Nabel, Yude Pan, Julia Pongratz, Benjamin Poulter, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Maurizio Santoro, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin D. Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, Rasoul Yousefpour, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 14, 5053–5067, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, 2017
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We used several observation-based biomass datasets to constrain the historical land-use change carbon emissions simulated by models. Compared to the range of the original modeled emissions (from 94 to 273 Pg C), the observationally constrained global cumulative emission estimate is 155 ± 50 Pg C (1σ Gaussian error) from 1901 to 2012. Our approach can also be applied to evaluate the LULCC impact of land-based climate mitigation policies.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
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Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
Yuanhong Zhao, Lin Zhang, Amos P. K. Tai, Youfan Chen, and Yuepeng Pan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9781–9796, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9781-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9781-2017, 2017
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Human activities have substantially enhanced atmospheric deposition of reactive nitrogen, inducing complex environmental consequences. This study presents a first quantitative investigation of how anthropogenic nitrogen deposition could impact surface ozone air quality through surface–atmosphere exchange processes. We find important surface ozone changes driven by nitrogen deposition, which can be comparable with those due to historical climate and land use changes.
Reinhard Prestele, Almut Arneth, Alberte Bondeau, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Stephen Sitch, Elke Stehfest, and Peter H. Verburg
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 369–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-369-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-369-2017, 2017
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Land-use change is still overly simplistically implemented in global ecosystem and climate models. We identify and discuss three major challenges at the interface of land-use and climate modeling and propose ways for how to improve land-use representation in climate models. We conclude that land-use data-provider and user communities need to engage in the joint development and evaluation of enhanced land-use datasets to improve the quantification of land use–climate interactions and feedback.
Karina Williams, Jemma Gornall, Anna Harper, Andy Wiltshire, Debbie Hemming, Tristan Quaife, Tim Arkebauer, and David Scoby
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1291–1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1291-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1291-2017, 2017
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This study looks in detail at how well the crop model within the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), a community land-surface model, is able to simulate irrigated maize in Nebraska. We use the results to point to future priorities for model development and describe how our methodology can be adapted to set up model runs for other sites and crop varieties.
Sam S. Rabin, Joe R. Melton, Gitta Lasslop, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Jed O. Kaplan, Fang Li, Stéphane Mangeon, Daniel S. Ward, Chao Yue, Vivek K. Arora, Thomas Hickler, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Lars Nieradzik, Allan Spessa, Gerd A. Folberth, Tim Sheehan, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Stephen Sitch, Sandy Harrison, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1175–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, 2017
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Global vegetation models are important tools for understanding how the Earth system will change in the future, and fire is a critical process to include. A number of different methods have been developed to represent vegetation burning. This paper describes the protocol for the first systematic comparison of global fire models, which will allow the community to explore various drivers and evaluate what mechanisms are important for improving performance. It also includes equations for all models.
Mehliyar Sadiq, Amos P. K. Tai, Danica Lombardozzi, and Maria Val Martin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3055–3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3055-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3055-2017, 2017
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Surface ozone harms vegetation, which can influence not only climate but also ozone air quality itself. We implement a scheme for ozone damage on vegetation into an Earth system model, so that for the first time simulated vegetation and ozone can coevolve in a fully coupled simulation. With ozone–vegetation coupling, simulated ozone is found to be significantly higher by up to 6 ppbv. Reduced dry deposition and enhanced isoprene emission contribute to most of these increases.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
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An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Doug McNeall, Jonny Williams, Ben Booth, Richard Betts, Peter Challenor, Andy Wiltshire, and David Sexton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 917–935, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-917-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-917-2016, 2016
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We compare simulated with observed forests to constrain uncertain input parameters of the land surface component of a climate model.
We find that the model is unlikely to be able to simulate the Amazon and other major forests simultaneously at any one parameter set, suggesting a bias in the model's representation of the Amazon.
We find we cannot constrain parameters individually, but we can rule out large areas of joint parameter space.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Richard A. Houghton, Ralph F. Keeling, Simone Alin, Oliver D. Andrews, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Kim Currie, Christine Delire, Scott C. Doney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Mario Hoppema, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Kevin O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Joe Salisbury, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, 2016
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The Global Carbon Budget 2016 is the 11th annual update of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. This data synthesis brings together measurements, statistical information, and analyses of model results in order to provide an assessment of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties for years 1959 to 2015, with a projection for year 2016.
Michael B. Butts, Carlo Buontempo, Jens K. Lørup, Karina Williams, Camilla Mathison, Oluf Z. Jessen, Niels D. Riegels, Paul Glennie, Carol McSweeney, Mark Wilson, Richard Jones, and Abdulkarim H. Seid
Proc. IAHS, 374, 3–7, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-3-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-3-2016, 2016
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The Nile Basin is one of the most important shared basins in Africa. Managing it's water resources, now and in the future, must not only address different water uses but also the trade-off between developments upstream and water use downstream, often between different countries. This paper presents a methodology, to support climate adaptation on a regional scale, for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation potential for floods, droughts and water scarcity within this basin.
William Alexander Avery, Catherine Finkenbiner, Trenton E. Franz, Tiejun Wang, Anthony L. Nguy-Robertson, Andrew Suyker, Timothy Arkebauer, and Francisco Muñoz-Arriola
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3859–3872, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3859-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3859-2016, 2016
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Here we present a strategy to use globally available datasets in the calibration function used to convert observed moderated neutron counts into volumetric soil water content. While local sampling protocols are well documented for fixed probes, the use of roving probes presents new calibration challenges. With over 200 fixed probes and 10 roving probes in use globally, we anticipate this paper will serve as a keystone for the growing cosmic-ray neutron probe and hydrologic community.
Fang Zhao, Ning Zeng, Ghassem Asrar, Pierre Friedlingstein, Akihiko Ito, Atul Jain, Eugenia Kalnay, Etsushi Kato, Charles D. Koven, Ben Poulter, Rashid Rafique, Stephen Sitch, Shijie Shu, Beni Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, and Sonke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 13, 5121–5137, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016, 2016
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The increasing seasonality of atmospheric CO2 is strongly linked with enhanced land vegetation activities in the last 5 decades, for which the importance of increasing CO2, climate and land use/cover change was evaluated in single model studies (Zeng et al., 2014; Forkel et al., 2016). Here we examine the relative importance of these factors in multiple models. Our results highlight models can show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying regional dynamics.
Stéphane Mangeon, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Richard Gilham, Anna Harper, Stephen Sitch, and Gerd Folberth
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2685–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2685-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2685-2016, 2016
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To understand the role of fires in the Earth system, global fire models are required. In this paper we describe the INteractive Fire and Emission algoRithm for Natural envirOnments (INFERNO). It follows a reduced complexity approach using mainly temperature, humidity and precipitation. INFERNO was found to perform well on a global scale and to maintain regional patterns over the 1997–2011 period of study, despite regional biases particularly linked to fuel consumption.
Yu Fu, Amos P. K. Tai, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10369–10383, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10369-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10369-2016, 2016
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The effects of climate change would partly counteract the emission-driven increase in PM2.5 in winter in most of eastern China, but exacerbate PM2.5 pollution in summer in North China Plain. Land cover and land use change might partially offset the increase in summertime PM2.5 but further enhance wintertime PM2.5 in the model by modifying the dry deposition of various PM2.5 precursors and biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, which also act as important factors in modulating air quality.
Anna B. Harper, Peter M. Cox, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris D. Jones, Stephen Sitch, Lina M. Mercado, Margriet Groenendijk, Eddy Robertson, Jens Kattge, Gerhard Bönisch, Owen K. Atkin, Michael Bahn, Johannes Cornelissen, Ülo Niinemets, Vladimir Onipchenko, Josep Peñuelas, Lourens Poorter, Peter B. Reich, Nadjeda A. Soudzilovskaia, and Peter van Bodegom
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2415–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2415-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2415-2016, 2016
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Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are used to predict the response of vegetation to climate change. We improved the representation of carbon uptake by ecosystems in a DGVM by including a wider range of trade-offs between nutrient allocation to photosynthetic capacity and leaf structure, based on observed plant traits from a worldwide data base. The improved model has higher rates of photosynthesis and net C uptake by plants, and more closely matches observations at site and global scales.
Stijn Hantson, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo Artaxo, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew Forrest, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Hickler, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, 2016
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Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of past and future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes. A large variety of models exist, and it is unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. In this paper we summarize the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP.
G. Murray-Tortarolo, P. Friedlingstein, S. Sitch, V. J. Jaramillo, F. Murguía-Flores, A. Anav, Y. Liu, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, A. Harper, A. Jain, E. Kato, C. Koven, B. Poulter, B. D. Stocker, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Biogeosciences, 13, 223–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, 2016
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We modelled the carbon (C) cycle in Mexico for three different time periods: past (20th century), present (2000-2005) and future (2006-2100). We used different available products to estimate C stocks and fluxes in the country. Contrary to other current estimates, our results showed that Mexico was a C sink and this is likely to continue in the next century (unless the most extreme climate-change scenarios are reached).
K. E. Williams and P. D. Falloon
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3987–3997, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3987-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3987-2015, 2015
C. Mathison, A. J. Wiltshire, P. Falloon, and A. J. Challinor
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4783–4810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4783-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4783-2015, 2015
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South Asia is a highly variable region where there is concern over water and food security. The simulations presented suggest an increasing trend in water resources, in some cases almost doubling by the end of the century although this is masked by the large annual variability of river flows for this region. Future peak river flows still occur during the monsoon period, with a tendency for reduced frequency of lowest flows and increased magnitude of highest flows across the selected locations.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, S. Sitch, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Friedlingstein, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, T. A. Boden, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, R. F. Keeling, P. Tans, A. Arneth, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Barbero, L. Bopp, J. Chang, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, P. Ciais, M. Fader, R. A. Feely, T. Gkritzalis, I. Harris, J. Hauck, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Kato, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, N. Metzl, F. Millero, D. R. Munro, A. Murata, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S. Nakaoka, Y. Nojiri, K. O'Brien, A. Olsen, T. Ono, F. F. Pérez, B. Pfeil, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, G. R. van der Werf, S. van Heuven, D. Vandemark, N. Viovy, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015
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Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. We describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on a range of data and models and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
L. Shen, L. J. Mickley, and A. P. K. Tai
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10925–10938, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10925-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10925-2015, 2015
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In this study, we have examined the effect of polar jet and Bermuda High on ozone air quality in the eastern United States. In the Midwest and northeast, the poleward shift of jet wind leads to reduced polar jet frequency, resulting in increased ozone there. In the southeast, the influence of Bermuda High on ozone variability depends on the location of its west edge. Westward movement increases the ozone only when the JJA Bermuda High west edge is located west of 85.4°W.
Y. Fu and A. P. K. Tai
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10093–10106, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10093-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10093-2015, 2015
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Historical land cover and land use change alone between 1980 and 2010 could lead to reduced summertime surface ozone by up to 4ppbv in East Asia. Climate change alone could lead to an increase in summertime ozone by 2-10ppbv in most of East Asia. Land cover change could offset part of the climate effect and lead to a previously unknown public health benefit. The sensitivity of surface ozone to land cover change is more dependent on dry deposition than isoprene emission in most of East Asia.
P. Achakulwisut, L. J. Mickley, L. T. Murray, A. P. K. Tai, J. O. Kaplan, and B. Alexander
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7977–7998, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7977-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7977-2015, 2015
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The atmosphere’s oxidative capacity determines the lifetime of many trace gases important to climate, chemistry, and human health. Yet uncertainties remain about its past variations, its controlling factors, and the radiative forcing of short-lived species it influences. To reduce these uncertainties, we must better quantify the natural emissions and chemical reaction mechanisms of organic compounds in the atmosphere, which play a role in governing the oxidative capacity.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, G. P. Peters, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, S. D. Jones, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, T. A. Boden, L. Bopp, Y. Bozec, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, F. Chevallier, C. E. Cosca, I. Harris, M. Hoppema, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, T. Johannessen, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, C. S. Landa, P. Landschützer, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, G. Marland, J. T. Mathis, N. Metzl, Y. Nojiri, A. Olsen, T. Ono, S. Peng, W. Peters, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. E. Salisbury, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, J. Segschneider, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, G. R. van der Werf, N. Viovy, Y.-P. Wang, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 47–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, 2015
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Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities (burning fossil fuels and cement production, deforestation and other land-use change) are set to rise again in 2014.
This study (updated yearly) makes an accurate assessment of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and their redistribution between the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in order to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change.
T. Osborne, J. Gornall, J. Hooker, K. Williams, A. Wiltshire, R. Betts, and T. Wheeler
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1139-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1139-2015, 2015
F. Pacifico, G. A. Folberth, S. Sitch, J. M. Haywood, L. V. Rizzo, F. F. Malavelle, and P. Artaxo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2791–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2791-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2791-2015, 2015
R. A. Betts, N. Golding, P. Gonzalez, J. Gornall, R. Kahana, G. Kay, L. Mitchell, and A. Wiltshire
Biogeosciences, 12, 1317–1338, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1317-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1317-2015, 2015
S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, N. Gruber, S. D. Jones, G. Murray-Tortarolo, A. Ahlström, S. C. Doney, H. Graven, C. Heinze, C. Huntingford, S. Levis, P. E. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, N. Zeng, A. Arneth, G. Bonan, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, R. Ellis, M. Gloor, P. Peylin, S. L. Piao, C. Le Quéré, B. Smith, Z. Zhu, and R. Myneni
Biogeosciences, 12, 653–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, 2015
N. M. Fyllas, E. Gloor, L. M. Mercado, S. Sitch, C. A. Quesada, T. F. Domingues, D. R. Galbraith, A. Torre-Lezama, E. Vilanova, H. Ramírez-Angulo, N. Higuchi, D. A. Neill, M. Silveira, L. Ferreira, G. A. Aymard C., Y. Malhi, O. L. Phillips, and J. Lloyd
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1251–1269, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1251-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1251-2014, 2014
C. Le Quéré, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, R. M. Andrew, T. A. Boden, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, R. A. Houghton, G. Marland, R. Moriarty, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, S. C. Doney, A. Harper, I. Harris, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, S. D. Jones, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, A. Körtzinger, C. Koven, N. Lefèvre, F. Maignan, A. Omar, T. Ono, G.-H. Park, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. Schwinger, J. Segschneider, B. D. Stocker, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, S. van Heuven, N. Viovy, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and S. Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 235–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, 2014
A. J. Wiltshire
The Cryosphere, 8, 941–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-941-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-941-2014, 2014
C. Le Quéré, R. J. Andres, T. Boden, T. Conway, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, G. Marland, G. P. Peters, G. R. van der Werf, A. Ahlström, R. M. Andrew, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, P. Ciais, S. C. Doney, C. Enright, P. Friedlingstein, C. Huntingford, A. K. Jain, C. Jourdain, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, S. Levis, P. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, J. Schwinger, S. Sitch, B. D. Stocker, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 165–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-165-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-165-2013, 2013
S. Hagemann, C. Chen, D. B. Clark, S. Folwell, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Hanasaki, J. Heinke, F. Ludwig, F. Voss, and A. J. Wiltshire
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 129–144, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013, 2013
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CoupModel (v6.0): an ecosystem model for coupled phosphorus, nitrogen, and carbon dynamics – evaluated against empirical data from a climatic and fertility gradient in Sweden
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Numerical model to simulate long-term soil organic carbon and ground ice budget with permafrost and ice sheets (SOC-ICE-v1.0)
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SPEAD 1.0 – A model for Simulating Plankton Evolution with Adaptive Dynamics in a two-trait continuous fitness landscape applied to the Sargasso Sea
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How to reconstruct diffuse radiation scenario for simulating GPP in land surface models?
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One-dimensional models of radiation transfer in heterogeneous canopies: a review, re-evaluation, and improved model
An improved mechanistic model for ammonia volatilization in Earth system models: Flow of Agricultural Nitrogen version 2 (FANv2)
Stoichiometrically coupled carbon and nitrogen cycling in the MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization model version 1.0 (MIMICS-CN v1.0)
Ecosystem age-class dynamics and distribution in the LPJ-wsl v2.0 global ecosystem model
Short-term forecasting of regional biospheric CO2 fluxes in Europe using a light-use-efficiency model (VPRM, MPI-BGC version 1.2)
FLiES-SIF version 1.0: three-dimensional radiative transfer model for estimating solar induced fluorescence
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CLASSIC v1.0: the open-source community successor to the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) and the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM) – Part 1: Model framework and site-level performance
Rapid development of fast and flexible environmental models: The Mobius framework v1.0
HR3DHG version 1: modeling the spatiotemporal dynamics of mercury in the Augusta Bay (southern Italy)
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Dynamic upscaling of decomposition kinetics for carbon cycling models
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A comparative assessment of the uncertainties of global surface ocean CO2 estimates using a machine-learning ensemble (CSIR-ML6 version 2019a) – have we hit the wall?
Improving the LPJmL4-SPITFIRE vegetation–fire model for South America using satellite data
Accounting for carbon and nitrogen interactions in the global terrestrial ecosystem model ORCHIDEE (trunk version, rev 4999): multi-scale evaluation of gross primary production
A new model of the coupled carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles in the terrestrial biosphere (QUINCY v1.0; revision 1996)
Modelling biomass burning emissions and the effect of spatial resolution: a case study for Africa based on the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED)
A lattice-automaton bioturbation simulator with coupled physics, chemistry, and biology in marine sediments (eLABS v0.2)
The biophysics, ecology, and biogeochemistry of functionally diverse, vertically and horizontally heterogeneous ecosystems: the Ecosystem Demography model, version 2.2 – Part 1: Model description
The biophysics, ecology, and biogeochemistry of functionally diverse, vertically and horizontally heterogeneous ecosystems: the Ecosystem Demography model, version 2.2 – Part 2: Model evaluation for tropical South America
Identification of key parameters controlling demographically structured vegetation dynamics in a land surface model: CLM4.5(FATES)
Parameter calibration and stomatal conductance formulation comparison for boreal forests with adaptive population importance sampler in the land surface model JSBACH
Evaluation of leaf-level optical properties employed in land surface models
Bruno Ringeval, Christoph Müller, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Philippe Ciais, Christian Folberth, Wenfeng Liu, Philippe Debaeke, and Sylvain Pellerin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1639–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1639-2021, 2021
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We assess how and why global gridded crop models (GGCMs) differ in their simulation of potential yield. We build a GCCM emulator based on generic formalism and fit its parameters against aboveground biomass and yield at harvest simulated by eight GGCMs. Despite huge differences between GGCMs, we show that the calibration of a few key parameters allows the emulator to reproduce the GGCM simulations. Our simple but mechanistic model could help to improve the global simulation of potential yield.
Yunfei Wang, Yijian Zeng, Lianyu Yu, Peiqi Yang, Christiaan Van der Tol, Qiang Yu, Xiaoliang Lü, Huanjie Cai, and Zhongbo Su
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1379–1407, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1379-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1379-2021, 2021
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This study integrates photosynthesis and transfer of energy, mass, and momentum in the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum system, via a simplified 1D root growth model. The results indicated that the simulation of land surface fluxes was significantly improved by considering the root water uptake, especially when vegetation was experiencing severe water stress. This finding highlights the importance of enhanced soil heat and moisture transfer in simulating ecosystem functioning.
Hongxing He, Per-Erik Jansson, and Annemieke I. Gärdenäs
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 735–761, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-735-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-735-2021, 2021
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This study presents the integration of the phosphorus (P) cycle into CoupModel (v6.0, Coup-CNP). The extended Coup-CNP, which explicitly considers the symbiosis between soil microbes and plant roots, enables simulations of coupled C, N, and P dynamics for terrestrial ecosystems. Simulations from the new Coup-CNP model provide strong evidence that P fluxes need to be further considered in studies of how ecosystems and C turnover react to climate change.
Theresa Boas, Heye Bogena, Thomas Grünwald, Bernard Heinesch, Dongryeol Ryu, Marius Schmidt, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 573–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-573-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-573-2021, 2021
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In this study we were able to significantly improve CLM5 model performance for European cropland sites by adding a winter wheat representation, specific plant parameterizations for important cash crops, and a cover-cropping and crop rotation subroutine to its crop module. Our modifications should be applied in future studies of CLM5 to improve regional yield predictions and to better understand large-scale impacts of agricultural management on carbon, water, and energy fluxes.
Kazuyuki Saito, Hirokazu Machiya, Go Iwahana, Tokuta Yokohata, and Hiroshi Ohno
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 521–542, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-521-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-521-2021, 2021
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Soil organic carbon (SOC) and ground ice (ICE) are essential but under-documented information to assess the circum-Arctic permafrost degradation impacts. A simple numerical model of essential SOC and ICE dynamics, developed and integrated north of 50° N for 125,000 years since the last interglacial, reconstructed the history and 1° distribution of SOC and ICE consistent with current knowledge, together with successful demonstration of climatic and topographical controls on SOC evolution.
Huilin Huang, Yongkang Xue, Fang Li, and Ye Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6029–6050, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6029-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6029-2020, 2020
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We developed a fire-coupled dynamic vegetation model that captures the spatial distribution, temporal variability, and especially the seasonal variability of fire regimes. The fire model is applied to assess the long-term fire impact on ecosystems and surface energy. We find that fire is an important determinant of the structure and function of the tropical savanna. By changing the vegetation composition and ecosystem characteristics, fire significantly alters surface energy balance.
Virginie Moreaux, Simon Martel, Alexandre Bosc, Delphine Picart, David Achat, Christophe Moisy, Raphael Aussenac, Christophe Chipeaux, Jean-Marc Bonnefond, Soisick Figuères, Pierre Trichet, Rémi Vezy, Vincent Badeau, Bernard Longdoz, André Granier, Olivier Roupsard, Manuel Nicolas, Kim Pilegaard, Giorgio Matteucci, Claudy Jolivet, Andrew T. Black, Olivier Picard, and Denis Loustau
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5973–6009, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5973-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5973-2020, 2020
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The model GO+ describes the functioning of managed forests based upon biophysical and biogeochemical processes. It accounts for the impacts of forest operations on energy, water and carbon exchanges within the soil–vegetation–atmosphere continuum. It includes versatile descriptions of management operations. Its sensitivity and uncertainty are detailed and predictions are compared with observations about mass and energy exchanges, hydrological data, and tree growth variables from different sites.
Toni Viskari, Maisa Laine, Liisa Kulmala, Jarmo Mäkelä, Istem Fer, and Jari Liski
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5959–5971, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5959-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5959-2020, 2020
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The research here established whether a Bayesian statistical method called state data assimilation could be used to improve soil organic carbon (SOC) forecasts. Our test case was a fallow experiment where SOC content was measured over several decades from a plot where all vegetation was removed. Our results showed that state data assimilation improved projections and allowed for the detailed model state be updated with coarse total carbon measurements.
Guillaume Le Gland, Sergio M. Vallina, S. Lan Smith, and Pedro Cermeño
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-302, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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We present an ecological model called SPEAD where various phytoplankton compete for a nutrient. Phytoplankton in SPEAD is characterized by two continuously distributed traits: optimal temperature and nutrient half-saturation. Trait diversity is sustained by allowing the traits to mutate at each generation. We showed that SPEAD agreed well with a more classical discrete model for only a fraction of its cost. We also identified realistic values for the mutation rates, to be used in future models.
Christopher T. Reinhard, Stephanie L. Olson, Sandra Kirtland Turner, Cecily Pälike, Yoshiki Kanzaki, and Andy Ridgwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5687–5706, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5687-2020, 2020
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We provide documentation and testing of new developments for the oceanic and atmospheric methane cycles in the cGENIE Earth system model. The model is designed to explore Earth's methane cycle across a wide range of timescales and scenarios, in particular assessing the mean climate state and climate perturbations in Earth's deep past. We further document the impact of atmospheric oxygen levels and ocean chemistry on fluxes of methane to the atmosphere from the ocean biosphere.
Yuan Zhang, Ana Bastos, Fabienne Maignan, Daniel Goll, Olivier Boucher, Laurent Li, Alessandro Cescatti, Nicolas Vuichard, Xiuzhi Chen, Christof Ammann, M. Altaf Arain, T. Andrew Black, Bogdan Chojnicki, Tomomichi Kato, Ivan Mammarella, Leonardo Montagnani, Olivier Roupsard, Maria J. Sanz, Lukas Siebicke, Marek Urbaniak, Francesco Primo Vaccari, Georg Wohlfahrt, Will Woodgate, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5401–5423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5401-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5401-2020, 2020
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We improved the ORCHIDEE LSM by distinguishing diffuse and direct light in canopy and evaluated the new model with observations from 159 sites. Compared with the old model, the new model has better sunny GPP and reproduced the diffuse light fertilization effect observed at flux sites. Our simulations also indicate different mechanisms causing the observed GPP enhancement under cloudy conditions at different times. The new model has the potential to study large-scale impacts of aerosol changes.
Petra Lasch-Born, Felicitas Suckow, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Martin Gutsch, Chris Kollas, Franz-Werner Badeck, Harald K. M. Bugmann, Rüdiger Grote, Cornelia Fürstenau, Marcus Lindner, and Jörg Schaber
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5311–5343, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5311-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5311-2020, 2020
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The process-based model 4C has been developed to study climate impacts on forests and is now freely available as an open-source tool. This paper provides a comprehensive description of the 4C version (v2.2) for scientific users of the model and presents an evaluation of 4C. The evaluation focused on forest growth, carbon water, and heat fluxes. We conclude that 4C is widely applicable, reliable, and ready to be released to the scientific community to use and further develop the model.
Christian Seiler, Joe R. Melton, Vivek K. Arora, and Libo Wang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-294, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-294, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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This study evaluates how well the CLASSIC Land Surface Model reproduces the energy, water, and carbon cycle when compared to a wide range of global observations. Special attention is paid to how uncertainties in the data used to drive and evaluate the model affect model skill. Our results show the importance of incorporating uncertainties when evaluating land surface models, and that failing to do so may potentially misguide future model development.
Zhengang Wang, Jianxiu Qiu, and Kristof Van Oost
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4977–4992, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4977-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4977-2020, 2020
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This study developed a spatially distributed carbon cycling model applicable in an eroding landscape. It includes all three carbon isotopes so that it is able to represent the carbon isotopic compositions. The model is able to represent the observations that eroding area is enriched in 13C and depleted of 14C compared to depositional area. Our simulations show that the spatial variability of carbon isotopic properties in an eroding landscape is mainly caused by the soil redistribution.
Yuan Zhang, Olivier Boucher, Philippe Ciais, Laurent Li, and Nicolas Bellouin
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-267, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-267, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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We investigated different methods to reconstruct spatio-temporal distribution of the fraction of diffuse radiation (Fdf) to qualtify the aerosol impacts on GPP using ORCHIDEE_DF land surface model. We find that climatologically-averaging methods which dampens the variability of Fdf can cause significant bias in the modeled diffuse radiation impacts on GPP. Better methods to do the reconstruction of Fdf are recommended.
Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Michael C. Dietze, Istem Fer, Toni Viskari, and Shawn P. Serbin
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-324, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-324, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Airborne and satellite images are a great resource for calibrating and evaluating computer models of ecosystems. Typically, researchers derive ecosystem properties from these images and then compare model against these derived properties. Here, we present an alternative approach where we modify a model to predict what the satellite would see more directly. We then show how this approach can be used to calibrate model parameters using airborne data from forest sites in the northeast US.
Brian N. Bailey, María A. Ponce de León, and E. Scott Krayenhoff
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4789–4808, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4789-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4789-2020, 2020
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Numerous models of plant radiation interception based on a range of assumptions are available in the literature, but the importance of each assumption is not well understood. In this work, we evaluate several assumptions common in simple models of radiation interception in canopies with widely spaced plants by comparing against a detailed 3-D model. This yielded a simple model based on readily measurable parameters that could accurately predict interception for a wide range of architectures.
Julius Vira, Peter Hess, Jeff Melkonian, and William R. Wieder
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4459–4490, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4459-2020, 2020
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Mostly emitted by the agricultural sector, ammonia has an important role in atmospheric chemistry. We developed a model to simulate how ammonia emissions respond to changes in temperature and soil moisture, and we evaluated agricultural ammonia emissions globally. The simulated emissions agree with earlier estimates over many regions, but the results highlight the variability of ammonia emissions and suggest that emissions in warm climates may be higher than previously thought.
Emily Kyker-Snowman, William R. Wieder, Serita D. Frey, and A. Stuart Grandy
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4413–4434, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4413-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4413-2020, 2020
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Microbes drive carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) transformations in soil, and soil models have started to include explicit microbial physiology and functioning to try to reduce uncertainty in soil–climate feedbacks. Here, we add N cycling to a microbially explicit soil C model and reproduce C and N dynamics in soil during litter decomposition across a range of sites. We discuss model-generated hypotheses about soil C and N cycling and highlight the need for landscape-scale model evaluation data.
Leonardo Calle and Benjamin Poulter
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-258, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-258, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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We developed a model to simulate and track the age of ecosystems on Earth. We found that the effect of ecosystem age on net primary production and ecosystem respiration is as important as climate in large areas of every vegetated continent. The LPJ-wsl v2.0 age-class model simulates the upper limit of age-class distributions on Earth and represents another step forward towards understanding the role of demography in global ecosystems.
Jinxuan Chen, Christoph Gerbig, Julia Marshall, and Kai Uwe Totsche
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4091–4106, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4091-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4091-2020, 2020
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One of the essential challenge for atmospheric CO2 forecasting is predicting CO2 flux variation on synoptic timescale. For CAMS CO2 forecast, a process-based vegetation model is used.
In this research we evaluate another type of model (i.e., the light-use-efficiency model VPRM), which is a data-driven approach and thus ideal for realistic estimation, on its ability of flux prediction. Errors from different sources are assessed, and overall the model is capable of CO2 flux prediction.
Yuma Sakai, Hideki Kobayashi, and Tomomichi Kato
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4041–4066, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4041-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4041-2020, 2020
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Chlorophyll fluorescence is one of the energy release pathways of excess incident light in the photosynthetic process. The canopy-scale Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), which potentially provides a direct pathway to link leaf-level photosynthesis to global GPP, can be observed from satellites. We develop the three-dimensional Monte Carlo plant canopy radiative transfer model to understand the biological and physical mechanisms behind SIF emission from complex forest canopies.
Femke Lutz, Stephen Del Grosso, Stephen Ogle, Stephen Williams, Sara Minoli, Susanne Rolinski, Jens Heinke, Jetse J. Stoorvogel, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3905–3923, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3905-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3905-2020, 2020
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Previous findings have shown deviations between the LPJmL5.0-tillage model and results from meta-analyses on global estimates of tillage effects on N2O emissions. By comparing model results with observational data of four experimental sites and outputs from field-scale DayCent model simulations, we show that advancing information on agricultural management, as well as the representation of soil moisture dynamics, improves LPJmL5.0-tillage and the estimates of tillage effects on N2O emissions.
Tingting Li, Yanyu Lu, Lingfei Yu, Wenjuan Sun, Qing Zhang, Wen Zhang, Guocheng Wang, Zhangcai Qin, Lijun Yu, Hailing Li, and Ran Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3769–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3769-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3769-2020, 2020
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Reliable models are required to estimate global wetland CH4 emissions, which are the largest and most uncertain source of atmospheric CH4. This paper evaluated CH4MODwetland and TEM models against CH4 measurements from different continents and wetland types. Based on best-model performance, we estimated 117–125 Tg yr−1 of global CH4 emissions from wetlands for the period 2000–2010. Efforts should be made to reduce estimate uncertainties for different wetland types and regions.
Jennifer E. Dentith, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, Julia C. Tindall, and Laura F. Robinson
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3529–3552, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3529-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3529-2020, 2020
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We have added a new tracer (13C) into the ocean of the FAMOUS climate model to study large-scale circulation and the marine carbon cycle. The model captures the large-scale spatial pattern of observations but the simulated values are consistently higher than observed. In the first instance, our new tracer is therefore useful for recalibrating the physical and biogeochemical components of the model.
Stijn Hantson, Douglas I. Kelley, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Sally Archibald, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Thomas Hickler, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, I. Colin Prentice, Tim Sheehan, Stephen Sitch, Lina Teckentrup, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3299–3318, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, 2020
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Global fire–vegetation models are widely used, but there has been limited evaluation of how well they represent various aspects of fire regimes. Here we perform a systematic evaluation of simulations made by nine FireMIP models in order to quantify their ability to reproduce a range of fire and vegetation benchmarks. While some FireMIP models are better at representing certain aspects of the fire regime, no model clearly outperforms all other models across the full range of variables assessed.
Yifei Dai, Long Cao, and Bin Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3119–3144, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3119-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3119-2020, 2020
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NESM v3 is one of the CMIP6 registered Earth system models. We evaluate its ocean carbon cycle component and present its present-day and future oceanic CO2 uptake based on the CMIP6 historical and SSP5–8.5 scenarios. We hope that this paper can serve as a documentation of the marine biogeochemical cycle in NESM v3. Also, the model defects found and their underlying causes analyzed in this paper could help users and further model development.
Joe R. Melton, Vivek K. Arora, Eduard Wisernig-Cojoc, Christian Seiler, Matthew Fortier, Ed Chan, and Lina Teckentrup
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2825–2850, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2825-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2825-2020, 2020
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We transitioned the CLASS-CTEM land surface model to an open-source community model format by modernizing the code base to make the model easier to use and understand, providing a complete software environment to run the model within, developing a benchmarking suite for model evaluation, and creating an infrastructure to support community involvement. The new model, the Canadian Land Surface Scheme including Biogeochemical Cycles (CLASSIC), is now available for the community to use and develop.
Magnus Dahler Norling, Leah Amber Jackson-Blake, José-Luis Guerrero Calidonio, and James Edward Sample
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-26, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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In order for researchers to more quickly prototype and build models of natural systems we have created the Mobius framework. Such models can for instance be used to ask questions about what the impacts of land use changes are to water quality in a river or lake, or the response of biological systems to climate change etc. The Mobius framework makes it quick to build models that run fast, which enables the user to explore many different scenarios and model formulations.
Giovanni Denaro, Daniela Salvagio Manta, Alessandro Borri, Maria Bonsignore, Davide Valenti, Enza Quinci, Andrea Cucco, Bernardo Spagnolo, Mario Sprovieri, and Andrea De Gaetano
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2073–2093, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2073-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2073-2020, 2020
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The HR3DHG (high-resolution 3D mercury model) investigates the spatiotemporal behavior, in seawater and marine sediments, of three mercury species (elemental, inorganic, and organic mercury) in a highly polluted marine environment (Augusta Bay, southern Italy). The model shows fair agreement with the experimental data collected during six different oceanographic cruises and can possibly be used for a detailed exploration of the effects of climate change on mercury distribution.
Elisa Lovecchio and Timothy M. Lenton
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1865–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1865-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1865-2020, 2020
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We present here the newly developed BPOP box model. BPOP is aimed at studying the impact of large-scale changes in the biological pump, i.e. the cycle of production, export and remineralization of the marine organic matter, on the nutrient and oxygen concentrations in the shelf and open ocean. This model has been developed to investigate the global consequences of the evolution of larger and heavier phytoplankton cells but can be applied to a variety of past and future case studies.
Benjamin D. Stocker, Han Wang, Nicholas G. Smith, Sandy P. Harrison, Trevor F. Keenan, David Sandoval, Tyler Davis, and I. Colin Prentice
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1545–1581, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1545-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1545-2020, 2020
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Estimating terrestrial photosynthesis relies on satellite data of vegetation cover and models simulating the efficiency by which light absorbed by vegetation is used for CO2 assimilation. This paper presents the P-model, a light use efficiency model derived from a carbon–water optimality principle, and evaluates its predictions of ecosystem-level photosynthesis against globally distributed observations. The model is implemented and openly accessible as an R package (rpmodel).
Louis de Wergifosse, Frédéric André, Nicolas Beudez, François de Coligny, Hugues Goosse, François Jonard, Quentin Ponette, Hugues Titeux, Caroline Vincke, and Mathieu Jonard
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1459–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1459-2020, 2020
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Given their key role in the simulation of climate impacts on tree growth, phenological and water balance processes must be integrated in models simulating forest dynamics under a changing environment. Here, we describe these processes integrated in HETEROFOR, a model accounting simultaneously for the functional, structural and spatial complexity to explore the forest response to forestry practices. The model evaluation using phenological and soil water content observations is quite promising.
Arjun Chakrawal, Anke M. Herrmann, John Koestel, Jerker Jarsjö, Naoise Nunan, Thomas Kätterer, and Stefano Manzoni
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1399–1429, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1399-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1399-2020, 2020
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Soils are heterogeneous, which results in a nonuniform spatial distribution of substrates and the microorganisms feeding on them. Our results show that the variability in the spatial distribution of substrates and microorganisms at the pore scale is crucial because it affects how fast substrates are used by microorganisms and thus the decomposition rate observed at the soil core scale. This work provides a methodology to include microscale heterogeneity in soil carbon cycling models.
Victoria Naipal, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, and Yilong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1201–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1201-2020, 2020
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In this study we present the Carbon Erosion DYNAMics model (CE-DYNAM) that links sediment dynamics resulting from water erosion with the soil carbon cycle along a cascade of hillslopes, floodplains, and rivers. The model can simulate the removal of soil and carbon from eroding areas and their destination at regional scale. We calibrated and validated the model for the Rhine catchment, and we show that soil erosion is a potential large net carbon sink over the period 1850–2005.
Kelly Kearney, Albert Hermann, Wei Cheng, Ivonne Ortiz, and Kerim Aydin
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 597–650, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-597-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-597-2020, 2020
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We describe an ecosystem model for the Bering Sea. Biological components in the Bering Sea can be found in the water column, on and within the bottom sediments, and within the porous lower layer of seasonal sea ice. This model simulates the exchange of material between nutrients and plankton within all three environments. Here, we thoroughly document the model and assess its skill in capturing key biophysical features across the Bering Sea.
Matthias J. R. Speich, Massimiliano Zappa, Marc Scherstjanoi, and Heike Lischke
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 537–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-537-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-537-2020, 2020
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Climate change is expected to substantially affect natural processes, and simulation models are a valuable tool to anticipate these changes. In this study, we combine two existing models that each describe one aspect of the environment: forest dynamics and the terrestrial water cycle. The coupled model better described observed patterns in vegetation structure. We also found that including the effect of water availability on tree height and rooting depth improved the model.
Simon P. K. Bowring, Ronny Lauerwald, Bertrand Guenet, Dan Zhu, Matthieu Guimberteau, Pierre Regnier, Ardalan Tootchi, Agnès Ducharne, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 507–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-507-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-507-2020, 2020
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In this second part of the study, we performed simulations of the carbon and water budget of the Lena catchment with the land surface model ORCHIDEE MICT-LEAK, enabled to simulate dissolved organic carbon (DOC) production in soils and its transport and fate in high-latitude inland waters. We compare simulations using this model to existing data sources to show that it is capable of reproducing dissolved carbon fluxes of potentially great importance for the future of the global permafrost.
Carme Font, Francesco Bregoli, Vicenç Acuña, Sergi Sabater, and Rafael Marcé
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5213–5228, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5213-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5213-2019, 2019
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GLOBAL-FATE is an open-source, multiplatform, and flexible model that simulates the fate of pharmaceutical-like compounds in the global river network. The model considers the consumption of pharmaceuticals by humans, differentiates between pharmaceutical load treated in wastewater treatment plants from that directly delivered to streams and rivers, and integrates lakes and reservoirs in calculations. GLOBAL-FATE is a powerful tool for pollutant impact studies at the global scale.
Luke Gregor, Alice D. Lebehot, Schalk Kok, and Pedro M. Scheel Monteiro
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5113–5136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5113-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5113-2019, 2019
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The ocean plays a vital role in mitigating climate change by taking up atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Historically sparse ship-based measurements of surface ocean CO2 make direct estimates of CO2 exchange changes unreliable. We introduce a machine-learning ensemble approach to fill these observational gaps. Our method performs incrementally better relative to past methods, leading to our hypothesis that we are perhaps reaching the limitation of machine-learning algorithms' capability.
Markus Drüke, Matthias Forkel, Werner von Bloh, Boris Sakschewski, Manoel Cardoso, Mercedes Bustamante, Jürgen Kurths, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5029–5054, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5029-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5029-2019, 2019
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This work shows the successful application of a systematic model–data integration setup, as well as the implementation of a new fire danger formulation, in order to optimize a process-based fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model. We have demonstrated a major improvement in the fire representation within LPJmL4-SPITFIRE in terms of the spatial pattern and the interannual variability of burned area in South America as well as in the modelling of biomass and the distribution of plant types.
Nicolas Vuichard, Palmira Messina, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Bertrand Guenet, Sönke Zaehle, Josefine Ghattas, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Philippe Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4751–4779, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4751-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4751-2019, 2019
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In this research, we present a new version of the global terrestrial ecosystem model ORCHIDEE in which carbon and nitrogen cycles are coupled. We evaluate its skills at simulating primary production at 78 sites and at a global scale. Based on a set of additional simulations in which carbon and nitrogen cycles are coupled and uncoupled, we show that the functional responses of the model with carbon–nitrogen interactions better agree with our current understanding of photosynthesis.
Tea Thum, Silvia Caldararu, Jan Engel, Melanie Kern, Marleen Pallandt, Reiner Schnur, Lin Yu, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4781–4802, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4781-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4781-2019, 2019
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To predict the response of the vegetation to climate change, we need global models that describe the relevant processes taking place in the vegetation. Recently, we have obtained more in-depth understanding of vegetation processes and the role of nutrients in the biogeochemical cycles. We have developed a new global vegetation model that includes carbon, water, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles. We show that the model is successful in evaluation against a wide range of observations.
Dave van Wees and Guido R. van der Werf
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4681–4703, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4681-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4681-2019, 2019
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For this paper, a novel high spatial-resolution fire emission model based on the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) modelling framework was developed and compared to a coarser-resolution version of the same model. Our findings highlight the importance of fine spatial resolution when modelling global-scale fire emissions, especially considering the comparison of model pixels to individual field measurements and the model representation of heterogeneity in the landscape.
Yoshiki Kanzaki, Bernard P. Boudreau, Sandra Kirtland Turner, and Andy Ridgwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4469–4496, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4469-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4469-2019, 2019
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This paper provides eLABS, an extension of the lattice-automaton bioturbation simulator LABS. In our new model, the benthic animal behavior interacts and changes dynamically with oxygen and organic matter concentrations and the water flows caused by benthic animals themselves, in a 2-D marine-sediment grid. The model can address the mechanisms behind empirical observations of bioturbation based on the interactions between physical, chemical and biological aspects of marine sediment.
Marcos Longo, Ryan G. Knox, David M. Medvigy, Naomi M. Levine, Michael C. Dietze, Yeonjoo Kim, Abigail L. S. Swann, Ke Zhang, Christine R. Rollinson, Rafael L. Bras, Steven C. Wofsy, and Paul R. Moorcroft
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4309–4346, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4309-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4309-2019, 2019
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Our paper describes the Ecosystem Demography model. This computer program calculates how plants and ground exchange heat, water, and carbon with the air, and how plants grow, reproduce and die in different climates. Most models simplify forests to an average big tree. We consider that tall, deep-rooted trees get more light and water than small plants, and that some plants can with shade and drought. This diversity helps us to better explain how plants live and interact with the atmosphere.
Marcos Longo, Ryan G. Knox, Naomi M. Levine, Abigail L. S. Swann, David M. Medvigy, Michael C. Dietze, Yeonjoo Kim, Ke Zhang, Damien Bonal, Benoit Burban, Plínio B. Camargo, Matthew N. Hayek, Scott R. Saleska, Rodrigo da Silva, Rafael L. Bras, Steven C. Wofsy, and Paul R. Moorcroft
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4347–4374, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4347-2019, 2019
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The Ecosystem Demography model calculates the fluxes of heat, water, and carbon between plants and ground and the air, and the life cycle of plants in different climates. To test if our calculations were reasonable, we compared our results with field and satellite measurements. Our model predicts well the extent of the Amazon forest, how much light forests absorb, and how much water forests release to the air. However, it must improve the tree growth rates and how fast dead plants decompose.
Elias C. Massoud, Chonggang Xu, Rosie A. Fisher, Ryan G. Knox, Anthony P. Walker, Shawn P. Serbin, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Jennifer A. Holm, Lara M. Kueppers, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Liang Wei, Daniel J. Johnson, Jeffrey Q. Chambers, Charlie D. Koven, Nate G. McDowell, and Jasper A. Vrugt
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4133–4164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4133-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4133-2019, 2019
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We conducted a comprehensive sensitivity analysis to understand behaviors of a demographic vegetation model within a land surface model. By running the model 5000 times with changing input parameter values, we found that (1) the photosynthetic capacity controls carbon fluxes, (2) the allometry is important for tree growth, and (3) the targeted carbon storage is important for tree survival. These results can provide guidance on improved model parameterization for a better fit to observations.
Jarmo Mäkelä, Jürgen Knauer, Mika Aurela, Andrew Black, Martin Heimann, Hideki Kobayashi, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Hank Margolis, Tiina Markkanen, Jouni Susiluoto, Tea Thum, Toni Viskari, Sönke Zaehle, and Tuula Aalto
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4075–4098, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4075-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4075-2019, 2019
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We assess the differences of six stomatal conductance formulations, embedded into a land–vegetation model JSBACH, on 10 boreal coniferous evergreen forest sites. We calibrate the model parameters using all six functions in a multi-year experiment, as well as for a separate drought event at one of the sites, using the adaptive population importance sampler. The analysis reveals weaknesses in the stomatal conductance formulation-dependent model behaviour that we are able to partially amend.
Titta Majasalmi and Ryan M. Bright
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3923–3938, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3923-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3923-2019, 2019
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Many land surface models rely on solutions derived from two-stream approximations utilizing leaf-level optical properties, many of which have not been formally reviewed or published. Using plant functional type groupings of the Community Land Model (CLM), we found large deviations between measured and CLM default near-infrared optical properties, implying that the modeled shortwave radiation budget including surface albedo may be expected to change after updating the biased parameters.
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Short summary
Ground-level ozone (O3) is detrimental to plant productivity and crop yield. Currently, the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) includes a representation of crops (JULES-crop). The parameters for O3 damage in soybean in JULES-crop were calibrated against photosynthesis measurements from the Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment (SoyFACE). The result shows good performance for yield, and it helps contribute to understanding of the impacts of climate and air pollution on food security.
Ground-level ozone (O3) is detrimental to plant productivity and crop yield. Currently, the...
