Articles | Volume 12, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4627-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4627-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
07 Nov 2019
Model description paper |
| 07 Nov 2019
| 07 Nov 2019
Description and evaluation of the tropospheric aerosol scheme in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS-AER, cycle 45R1)
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS, Paris, France
HYGEOS, Lille, France
Zak Kipling
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
Johannes Flemming
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
Olivier Boucher
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS, Paris, France
Pierre Nabat
Météo-France, Toulouse, France
Martine Michou
Météo-France, Toulouse, France
Alessio Bozzo
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, Darmstadt, Germany
Melanie Ades
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
Vincent Huijnen
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands
Angela Benedetti
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
Richard Engelen
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
Vincent-Henri Peuch
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
Jean-Jacques Morcrette
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
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Angela Benedetti, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Luke Jones, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Samuel Rémy, and Xiaoye Zhang
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Angela Benedetti, Jeffrey S. Reid, Peter Knippertz, John H. Marsham, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Samuel Rémy, Sara Basart, Olivier Boucher, Ian M. Brooks, Laurent Menut, Lucia Mona, Paolo Laj, Gelsomina Pappalardo, Alfred Wiedensohler, Alexander Baklanov, Malcolm Brooks, Peter R. Colarco, Emilio Cuevas, Arlindo da Silva, Jeronimo Escribano, Johannes Flemming, Nicolas Huneeus, Oriol Jorba, Stelios Kazadzis, Stefan Kinne, Thomas Popp, Patricia K. Quinn, Thomas T. Sekiyama, Taichu Tanaka, and Enric Terradellas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10615–10643, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10615-2018, 2018
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Francesca Di Giuseppe, Samuel Rémy, Florian Pappenberger, and Fredrik Wetterhall
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Albert Ansmann, Franziska Rittmeister, Ronny Engelmann, Sara Basart, Oriol Jorba, Christos Spyrou, Samuel Remy, Annett Skupin, Holger Baars, Patric Seifert, Fabian Senf, and Thomas Kanitz
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2921–2942, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2921-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2921-2017, 2017
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Johannes Flemming, Angela Benedetti, Antje Inness, Richard J. Engelen, Luke Jones, Vincent Huijnen, Samuel Remy, Mark Parrington, Martin Suttie, Alessio Bozzo, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Dimitris Akritidis, and Eleni Katragkou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1945–1983, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1945-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1945-2017, 2017
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N. Huneeus, S. Basart, S. Fiedler, J.-J. Morcrette, A. Benedetti, J. Mulcahy, E. Terradellas, C. Pérez García-Pando, G. Pejanovic, S. Nickovic, P. Arsenovic, M. Schulz, E. Cuevas, J. M. Baldasano, J. Pey, S. Remy, and B. Cvetkovic
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4967–4986, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4967-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4967-2016, 2016
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Franco Marenco, Ben Johnson, Justin M. Langridge, Jane Mulcahy, Angela Benedetti, Samuel Remy, Luke Jones, Kate Szpek, Jim Haywood, Karla Longo, and Paulo Artaxo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2155–2174, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2155-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2155-2016, 2016
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region during the biomass burning season, spanning a distance of 2200 km
and a period of 14 days. The larger smoke content was typically found
in elevated layers, from 1–1.5 km to 4–6 km.
Measurements have been compared to model predictions, and the latter
were able to reproduce the general features of the smoke layer, but
with some differences which are analysed and described in the paper.
S. Rémy, A. Benedetti, A. Bozzo, T. Haiden, L. Jones, M. Razinger, J. Flemming, R. J. Engelen, V. H. Peuch, and J. N. Thepaut
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12909–12933, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12909-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12909-2015, 2015
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A. Inness, A. Benedetti, J. Flemming, V. Huijnen, J. W. Kaiser, M. Parrington, and S. Remy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9083–9097, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9083-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9083-2015, 2015
S. Remy and J. W. Kaiser
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13377–13390, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13377-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13377-2014, 2014
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This paper describes a method to correct the bias in daily fire radiative power (FRP) observations from any low Earth orbit satellite, so that that the budget of daily smoke emissions remains independent of the number of satellites from which FRP observations are taken into account. This ensures the possibility of running a system assimilating observations from several sensors, e.g. the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS), in case of failure of one of the MODIS instruments.
Swen Metzger, Samuel Rémy, Jason E. Williams, Vincent Huijnen, and Johannes Flemming
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5009–5021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5009-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5009-2024, 2024
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Fangxuan Ren, Jintai Lin, Chenghao Xu, Jamiu A. Adeniran, Jingxu Wang, Randall V. Martin, Aaron van Donkelaar, Melanie S. Hammer, Larry W. Horowitz, Steven T. Turnock, Naga Oshima, Jie Zhang, Susanne Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Gary Strand, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, and Toshihiko Takemura
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4821–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, 2024
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We evaluate the performance of 14 CMIP6 ESMs in simulating total PM2.5 and its 5 components over China during 2000–2014. PM2.5 and its components are underestimated in almost all models, except that black carbon (BC) and sulfate are overestimated in two models, respectively. The underestimation is the largest for organic carbon (OC) and the smallest for BC. Models reproduce the observed spatial pattern for OC, sulfate, nitrate and ammonium well, yet the agreement is poorer for BC.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
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The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Irina Melnikova, Philippe Ciais, Katsumasa Tanaka, Hideo Shiogama, Kaoru Tachiiri, Tokuta Yokohata, and Olivier Boucher
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1553, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1553, 2024
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Reducing non-CO2 greenhouse gases helps limit global warming alongside CO2 reduction. We compared the effects using an Earth System Model. We show that the carbon cycle feedback differ between CO2 and non-CO2 gases, with the presence or absence of CO2 change in the atmosphere influencing their effects. The study underscores the need to consider interactions between CO2 and non-CO2 impacts on the carbon cycle in climate models and emission reduction strategies.
Peng Xian, Jeffrey S. Reid, Melanie Ades, Angela Benedetti, Peter R. Colarco, Arlindo da Silva, Tom F. Eck, Johannes Flemming, Edward J. Hyer, Zak Kipling, Samuel Rémy, Tsuyoshi Thomas Sekiyama, Taichu Tanaka, Keiya Yumimoto, and Jianglong Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6385–6411, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6385-2024, 2024
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The study compares and evaluates monthly AOD of four reanalyses (RA) and their consensus (i.e., ensemble mean). The basic verification characteristics of these RA versus both AERONET and MODIS retrievals are presented. The study discusses the strength of each RA and identifies regions where divergence and challenges are prominent. The RA consensus usually performs very well on a global scale in terms of how well it matches the observational data, making it a good choice for various applications.
Mariya Petrenko, Ralph Kahn, Mian Chin, Susanne E. Bauer, Tommi Bergman, Huisheng Bian, Gabriele Curci, Ben Johnson, Johannes Kaiser, Zak Kipling, Harri Kokkola, Xiaohong Liu, Keren Mezuman, Tero Mielonen, Gunnar Myhre, Xiaohua Pan, Anna Protonotariou, Samuel Remy, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Hailong Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Kai Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1487, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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We compared smoke plume simulations from 11 global models to each other and to satellite smoke-amount observations, aimed at constraining smoke source strength. In regions where plumes are thick and background aerosol is low, models and satellites compare well. However, the input emission inventory tends to underestimate in many places, and particle property and loss-rate assumptions vary enormously among models, causing uncertainties that require systematic in-situ measurements to resolve.
Sidiki Sanogo, Olivier Boucher, Nicolas Bellouin, Audran Borella, Kevin Wolf, and Susanne Rohs
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5495–5511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5495-2024, 2024
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Relative humidity relative to ice (RHi) is a key variable in the formation of cirrus clouds and contrails. This study shows that the properties of the probability density function of RHi differ between the tropics and higher latitudes. In line with RHi and temperature variability, aircraft are likely to produce more contrails with bioethanol and liquid hydrogen as fuel. The impact of this fuel change decreases with decreasing pressure levels but increases from high latitudes to the tropics.
Gabriel Chesnoiu, Isabelle Chiapello, Nicolas Ferlay, Pierre Nabat, Marc Mallet, and Véronique Riffault
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1174, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1174, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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ALADIN regional climate model at 12.5 km resolution allows to evaluate the evolution of surface solar radiation (SSR) and key associated atmospheric parameters. Over the Northern France/Benelux region, influenced by anthropogenic aerosols and cloudy conditions, regional evaluation of recent hindcast simulations shows satisfying results, and high spatial variability. Future SSR evolution by the end of the century for two contrasting CMIP6 scenarios highlight large decreases of SSR for SSP3-7.0.
Kevin Wolf, Nicolas Bellouin, and Olivier Boucher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5009–5024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5009-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5009-2024, 2024
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The contrail formation potential and its tempo-spatial distribution are estimated for the North Atlantic flight corridor. Meteorological conditions of temperature and relative humidity are taken from the ERA5 re-analysis and IAGOS. Based on IAGOS flight tracks, crossing length, size, orientation, frequency of occurrence, and overlap of persistent contrail formation areas are determined. The presented conclusions might provide a guide for statistical flight track optimization to reduce contrails.
Jorge E. Pachon, Mariel Opazo, Pablo Lichtig, Nicolas Hunneus, Idir Bouarar, Guy Brasseur, Cathy W. Y. Li, Johannes Flemming, Laurent Menut, Camilo Menares, Laura Gallardo, Michael Gauss, Mikhail Sofiev, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Julia Palamarchuk, Laura Dawidowski, Nestor Y. Rojas, Maria de Fatima Andrade, Mario E. Gavidia-Calderón, Alejandro H. Delgado Peralta, and Daniel Schuch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-815, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-815, 2024
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Latin America (LAC) has some of the most populated urban areas in the world with high levels of air pollution. Air quality management in LAC has been traditionally focused on surveillance and building emission inventories. This study performed the first intercomparison and model evaluation in LAC with interesting and insightful findings for the region. A multi-scale modeling ensemble chain has been assembled as a first step towards an Air Quality forecasting system.
Adrianus de Laat, Vincent Huijnen, Niels Andela, and Matthias Forkel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-732, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-732, 2024
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This study assesses state-of-the art and more advanced and innovative satellite-observation-based (bottom-up) wildfire emission estimates. They are evaluated by comparison with satellite observation of single fire emission plumes. Results indicate that more advanced fire emission estimates – more information – are more realistic but that especially for a limited number of very large fires certain differences remain – for unknown reasons.
Daniele Visioni, Alan Robock, Jim Haywood, Matthew Henry, Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Sarah J. Doherty, John Moore, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Olivier Boucher, Abu Syed, Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Roland Séférian, and Ilaria Quaglia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2583–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, 2024
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This paper describes a new experimental protocol for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). In it, we describe the details of a new simulation of sunlight reflection using the stratospheric aerosols that climate models are supposed to run, and we explain the reasons behind each choice we made when defining the protocol.
Marc Mallet, Aurore Voldoire, Fabien Solmon, Pierre Nabat, Thomas Drugé, and Romain Roehrig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-496, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-496, 2024
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This study investigates the interactions between smoke aerosols and climate in tropical Africa using a coupled ocean-atmosphere-aerosol climate model. The work shows that smoke plumes have a significant impact by increasing the low cloud fraction, decreasing the ocean and continental surface temperature and by reducing the precipitation of the coastal Western Africa. It also highlights the key role of the ocean temperature response and its feedbacks for the September to November season.
Audran Borella, Olivier Boucher, Keith P. Shine, Marc Stettler, Katsumasa Tanaka, Roger Teoh, and Nicolas Bellouin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-347, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-347, 2024
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This work studies how to compare the climate impact of the CO2 emitted and contrails formed by a flight, applied to contrail avoidance strategies that would decrease the climate impact of flights by changing the trajectory of aircraft to avoid persistent contrail formation, at the risk of increasing CO2 emissions. We find that different comparison methods lead to different quantification of the total climate impact of a flight, but lead to similar decisions about rerouting an aircraft or not.
Sarah Tinorua, Cyrielle Denjean, Pierre Nabat, Thierry Bourrianne, Véronique Pont, François Gheusi, and Emmanuel Leclerc
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1801–1824, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1801-2024, 2024
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At a French high-altitude site, where many complex interactions between black carbon (BC), radiation, clouds and snow impact climate, 2 years of refractive BC (rBC) and aerosol optical and microphysical measurements have been made. We observed strong seasonal rBC properties variations, with an enhanced absorption in summer compared to winter. The combination of rBC emission sources, transport pathways, atmospheric dynamics and chemical processes explains the rBC light absorption seasonality.
Henk Eskes, Athanasios Tsikerdekis, Melanie Ades, Mihai Alexe, Anna Carlin Benedictow, Yasmine Bennouna, Lewis Blake, Idir Bouarar, Simon Chabrillat, Richard Engelen, Quentin Errera, Johannes Flemming, Sebastien Garrigues, Jan Griesfeller, Vincent Huijnen, Luka Ilic, Antje Inness, John Kapsomenakis, Zak Kipling, Bavo Langerock, Augustin Mortier, Mark Parrington, Isabelle Pison, Mikko Pitkanen, Samuel Remy, Andreas Richter, Anja Schoenhardt, Michael Schulz, Valerie Thouret, Thorsten Warneke, Christos Zerefos, and Vincent-Henri Peuch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3129, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3129, 2024
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The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides global analyses and forecasts of aerosols and trace gases in the atmosphere. On 27/06/2023 a major upgrade, Cy48R1, became operational. Comparisons with in situ, surface remote sensing, aircraft, balloon and satellite observations, show that the new CAMS system is a significant improvement. The results quantify the skill of CAMS to forecast impactful events, such as wildfires, dust storms and air pollution peaks.
Sören Johansson, Michael Höpfner, Felix Friedl-Vallon, Norbert Glatthor, Thomas Gulde, Vincent Huijnen, Anne Kleinert, Erik Kretschmer, Guido Maucher, Tom Neubert, Hans Nordmeyer, Christof Piesch, Peter Preusse, Martin Riese, Björn-Martin Sinnhuber, Jörn Ungermann, Gerald Wetzel, and Wolfgang Woiwode
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-77, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-77, 2024
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We present airborne infra red limb sounding GLORIA measurements of ammonia in the upper troposphere of air masses within the Asian Monsoon, and of air masses connected with biomass burning. In comparisons with CAMS model data, we find that the model is well reproducing the measured enhanced ammonia within the Asian Monsoon, but not within biomass burning plumes, where no enhanced ammonia is measured in the upper troposphere, but considerable amounts of ammonia are simulated by CAMS.
Sarah Tinorua, Cyrielle Denjean, Pierre Nabat, Véronique Pont, Mathilde Arnaud, Thierry Bourrianne, Maria Dias Alves, and Eric Gardrat
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-47, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-47, 2024
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The three most widely used techniques for measuring black carbon (BC) has been deployed continuously for two years at a french high-altitude measurement station. Despite a similar temporal variation in the BC load, we found significant biases by up to a factor 8 between the three instruments. This study raises questions about the relevance of using these instruments for specific background sites, as well as the processing of their data, which can vary according to atmospheric conditions.
Samuel Rémy, Swen Metzger, Vincent Huijnen, Jason E. Williams, and Johannes Flemming
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3072, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3072, 2024
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In this paper we describe the development of the future operational cycle of the IFS-COMPO system, used for operational forecasts of atmospheric composition in the CAMS project, and focus on the implementation of the thermodynamical model EQSAM4Clim version 12. The implementation of EQSAM4Clim significantly improves the simulated secondary inorganic aerosol surface concentration. The new aerosol and precipitation acidity diagnostics showed good agreement against observational datasets.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Glen P. Peters, Richard Engelen, Sander Houweling, Dominik Brunner, Aki Tsuruta, Bradley Matthews, Prabir K. Patra, Dmitry Belikov, Rona L. Thompson, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wenxin Zhang, Arjo J. Segers, Giuseppe Etiope, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Philippe Peylin, Frédéric Chevallier, Tuula Aalto, Robbie M. Andrew, David Bastviken, Antoine Berchet, Grégoire Broquet, Giulia Conchedda, Johannes Gütschow, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Ronny Lauerwald, Tiina Markkanen, Jacob C. A. van Peet, Isabelle Pison, Pierre Regnier, Espen Solum, Marko Scholze, Maria Tenkanen, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, and John R. Worden
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-516, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-516, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
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This study provides an overview of data availability from observation and inventory-based CH4 emissions estimates. It systematically compares them and provides recommendations for robust comparisons, aiming to steadily engage more Parties in using observational methods to complement their UNFCCC submissions. Anticipating improvements in atmospheric modelling and observations, future developments need to resolve knowledge gaps in both approaches and to better quantify remaining uncertainty.
Alkiviadis Kalisoras, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Dimitris Akritidis, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Chaincy Kuo, Sophie Szopa, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, David Neubauer, Naga Oshima, Jane Mulcahy, Larry W. Horowitz, and Prodromos Zanis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2571, 2023
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Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) is a metric for estimating how human activities and natural agents change the energy flow into and out of the Earth’s climate system. We investigate the anthropogenic aerosol ERF and we estimate the contribution of individual processes to the total ERF using simulations from Earth System Models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our findings highlight that aerosol-cloud interactions drive ERF variability during the last 150 years.
Kevin Wolf, Nicolas Bellouin, and Olivier Boucher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14003–14037, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14003-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14003-2023, 2023
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Cirrus and contrails considerably impact Earth's energy budget. Such ice clouds can have a positive (warming) or negative (cooling) net radiative effect (RE), which depends on cloud and ambient properties. The effect of eight parameters on the cloud RE is estimated. In total, 283 500 radiative transfer simulations have been performed, spanning the typical parameter ranges associated with cirrus and contrails. Specific cases are selected and discussed. The data set is publicly available.
Kevin Wolf, Nicolas Bellouin, Olivier Boucher, Susanne Rohs, and Yun Li
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2356, 2023
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ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis and airborne in situ observations from IAGOS are compared in terms of representation of the contrail occurrence potential and the presence of supersaturation for persistency. Differences are traced back to biases in ERA5 temperature and, particularly, relative humidity. Those biases are addressed applying a new quantile mapping technique that marginally modifies the contrail representation in ERA5. An overall good statistical contrail representation in ERA5 is found.
Zhipeng Qu, David P. Donovan, Howard W. Barker, Jason N. S. Cole, Mark W. Shephard, and Vincent Huijnen
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 4927–4946, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-4927-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-4927-2023, 2023
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The EarthCARE satellite mission Level 2 algorithm development requires realistic 3D cloud and aerosol scenes along the satellite orbits. One of the best ways to produce these scenes is to use a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model to simulate atmospheric conditions at 250 m horizontal resolution. This paper describes the production and validation of three EarthCARE test scenes.
Sebastien Garrigues, Melanie Ades, Samuel Remy, Johannes Flemming, Zak Kipling, Istvan Laszlo, Mark Parrington, Antje Inness, Roberto Ribas, Luke Jones, Richard Engelen, and Vincent-Henri Peuch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10473–10487, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10473-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10473-2023, 2023
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The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides global monitoring of aerosols using the ECMWF forecast model constrained by the assimilation of satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD). This work aims at evaluating the assimilation of the NOAA VIIRS AOD product in the ECMWF model. It shows that the introduction of VIIRS in the CAMS data assimilation system enhances the accuracy of the aerosol analysis, particularly over Europe and desert and maritime sites.
Olivia E. Clifton, Donna Schwede, Christian Hogrefe, Jesse O. Bash, Sam Bland, Philip Cheung, Mhairi Coyle, Lisa Emberson, Johannes Flemming, Erick Fredj, Stefano Galmarini, Laurens Ganzeveld, Orestis Gazetas, Ignacio Goded, Christopher D. Holmes, László Horváth, Vincent Huijnen, Qian Li, Paul A. Makar, Ivan Mammarella, Giovanni Manca, J. William Munger, Juan L. Pérez-Camanyo, Jonathan Pleim, Limei Ran, Roberto San Jose, Sam J. Silva, Ralf Staebler, Shihan Sun, Amos P. K. Tai, Eran Tas, Timo Vesala, Tamás Weidinger, Zhiyong Wu, and Leiming Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9911–9961, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9911-2023, 2023
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A primary sink of air pollutants is dry deposition. Dry deposition estimates differ across the models used to simulate atmospheric chemistry. Here, we introduce an effort to examine dry deposition schemes from atmospheric chemistry models. We provide our approach’s rationale, document the schemes, and describe datasets used to drive and evaluate the schemes. We also launch the analysis of results by evaluating against observations and identifying the processes leading to model–model differences.
Shannon L. Mason, Robin J. Hogan, Alessio Bozzo, and Nicola L. Pounder
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 3459–3486, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3459-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3459-2023, 2023
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We present a method for accurately estimating the contents and properties of clouds, snow, rain, and aerosols through the atmosphere, using the combined measurements of the radar, lidar, and radiometer instruments aboard the upcoming EarthCARE satellite, and evaluate the performance of the retrieval, using test scenes simulated from a numerical forecast model. When EarthCARE is in operation, these quantities and their estimated uncertainties will be distributed in a data product called ACM-CAP.
Claire L. Ryder, Clèment Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-662, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-662, 2023
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Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft because flying through it can cause engine components to degrade faster than they would otherwise. Here we quantify how much dust gets ingested into aircraft engines at worldwide airports. We find that Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. We show that dust ingestion can be reduced by changing the time of day of flights and the altitude of holding patterns.
Jan Polcher, Anthony Schrapffer, Eliott Dupont, Lucia Rinchiuso, Xudong Zhou, Olivier Boucher, Emmanuel Mouche, Catherine Ottlé, and Jérôme Servonnat
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2583–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2583-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2583-2023, 2023
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The proposed graphs of hydrological sub-grid elements for atmospheric models allow us to integrate the topographical elements needed in land surface models for a realistic representation of horizontal water and energy transport. The study demonstrates the numerical properties of the automatically built graphs and the simulated water flows.
Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Alan Robock, Simone Tilmes, Jim Haywood, Olivier Boucher, Mark Lawrence, Peter Irvine, Ulrike Niemeier, Lili Xia, Gabriel Chiodo, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, John C. Moore, and Helene Muri
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5149–5176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, 2023
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Geoengineering indicates methods aiming to reduce the temperature of the planet by means of reflecting back a part of the incoming radiation before it reaches the surface or allowing more of the planetary radiation to escape into space. It aims to produce modelling experiments that are easy to reproduce and compare with different climate models, in order to understand the potential impacts of these techniques. Here we assess its past successes and failures and talk about its future.
Pantelis Kiriakidis, Antonis Gkikas, Georgios Papangelis, Theodoros Christoudias, Jonilda Kushta, Emmanouil Proestakis, Anna Kampouri, Eleni Marinou, Eleni Drakaki, Angela Benedetti, Michael Rennie, Christian Retscher, Anne Grete Straume, Alexandru Dandocsi, Jean Sciare, and Vasilis Amiridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4391–4417, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4391-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4391-2023, 2023
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With the launch of the Aeolus satellite, higher-accuracy wind products became available. This research was carried out to validate the assimilated wind products by testing their effect on the WRF-Chem model predictive ability of dust processes. This was carried out for the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region for two 2-month periods in autumn and spring 2020. The use of the assimilated products improved the dust forecasts of the autumn season (both quantitatively and qualitatively).
Anna Agustí-Panareda, Jérôme Barré, Sébastien Massart, Antje Inness, Ilse Aben, Melanie Ades, Bianca C. Baier, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Tobias Borsdorff, Nicolas Bousserez, Souhail Boussetta, Michael Buchwitz, Luca Cantarello, Cyril Crevoisier, Richard Engelen, Henk Eskes, Johannes Flemming, Sébastien Garrigues, Otto Hasekamp, Vincent Huijnen, Luke Jones, Zak Kipling, Bavo Langerock, Joe McNorton, Nicolas Meilhac, Stefan Noël, Mark Parrington, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Michel Ramonet, Miha Razinger, Maximilian Reuter, Roberto Ribas, Martin Suttie, Colm Sweeney, Jérôme Tarniewicz, and Lianghai Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3829–3859, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3829-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3829-2023, 2023
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We present a global dataset of atmospheric CO2 and CH4, the two most important human-made greenhouse gases, which covers almost 2 decades (2003–2020). It is produced by combining satellite data of CO2 and CH4 with a weather and air composition prediction model, and it has been carefully evaluated against independent observations to ensure validity and point out deficiencies to the user. This dataset can be used for scientific studies in the field of climate change and the global carbon cycle.
Yann Quilcaille, Thomas Gasser, Philippe Ciais, and Olivier Boucher
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1129–1161, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1129-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1129-2023, 2023
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The model OSCAR is a simple climate model, meaning its representation of the Earth system is simplified but calibrated on models of higher complexity. Here, we diagnose its latest version using a total of 99 experiments in a probabilistic framework and under observational constraints. OSCAR v3.1 shows good agreement with observations, complex Earth system models and emerging properties. Some points for improvements are identified, such as the ocean carbon cycle.
John Douros, Henk Eskes, Jos van Geffen, K. Folkert Boersma, Steven Compernolle, Gaia Pinardi, Anne-Marlene Blechschmidt, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Augustin Colette, and Pepijn Veefkind
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 509–534, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-509-2023, 2023
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We focus on the challenges associated with comparing atmospheric composition models with satellite products such as tropospheric NO2 columns. The aim is to highlight the methodological difficulties and propose sound ways of doing such comparisons. Building on the comparisons, a new satellite product is proposed and made available, which takes advantage of higher-resolution, regional atmospheric modelling to improve estimates of troposheric NO2 columns over Europe.
Yangxin Chen, Duoying Ji, Qian Zhang, John C. Moore, Olivier Boucher, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Michael J. Mills, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 55–79, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-55-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-55-2023, 2023
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Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a way of counteracting the warming effects of increasing greenhouse gases by reflecting solar radiation. This work shows that solar geoengineering can slow down the northern-high-latitude permafrost degradation but cannot preserve the permafrost ecosystem as that under a climate of the same warming level without solar geoengineering.
Kevin Wolf, Nicolas Bellouin, and Olivier Boucher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 287–309, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-287-2023, 2023
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Recent studies estimate the radiative impact of contrails to be similar to or larger than that of emitted CO2; thus, contrail mitigation might be an opportunity to reduce the climate effects of aviation. A radiosonde data set is analyzed in terms of the vertical distribution of potential contrails, contrail mitigation by flight altitude changes, and linkages with the tropopause and jet stream. The effect of prospective jet engine developments and alternative fuels are estimated.
Stijn Naus, Lucas G. Domingues, Maarten Krol, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Luciana V. Gatti, John B. Miller, Emanuel Gloor, Sourish Basu, Caio Correia, Gerbrand Koren, Helen M. Worden, Johannes Flemming, Gabrielle Pétron, and Wouter Peters
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14735–14750, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14735-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14735-2022, 2022
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We assimilate MOPITT CO satellite data in the TM5-4D-Var inverse modelling framework to estimate Amazon fire CO emissions for 2003–2018. We show that fire emissions have decreased over the analysis period, coincident with a decrease in deforestation rates. However, interannual variations in fire emissions are large, and they correlate strongly with soil moisture. Our results reveal an important role for robust, top-down fire CO emissions in quantifying and attributing Amazon fire intensity.
Sebastien Garrigues, Samuel Remy, Julien Chimot, Melanie Ades, Antje Inness, Johannes Flemming, Zak Kipling, Istvan Laszlo, Angela Benedetti, Roberto Ribas, Soheila Jafariserajehlou, Bertrand Fougnie, Shobha Kondragunta, Richard Engelen, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Mark Parrington, Nicolas Bousserez, Margarita Vazquez Navarro, and Anna Agusti-Panareda
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14657–14692, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14657-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14657-2022, 2022
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The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides global monitoring of aerosols using the ECMWF forecast model constrained by the assimilation of satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD). This work aims at evaluating two new satellite AODs to enhance the CAMS aerosol global forecast. It highlights the spatial and temporal differences between the satellite AOD products at the model spatial resolution, which is essential information to design multi-satellite AOD data assimilation schemes.
Antje Inness, Ilse Aben, Melanie Ades, Tobias Borsdorff, Johannes Flemming, Luke Jones, Jochen Landgraf, Bavo Langerock, Philippe Nedelec, Mark Parrington, and Roberto Ribas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14355–14376, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14355-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14355-2022, 2022
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The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides daily global air quality forecasts to users worldwide. One of the species of interest is carbon monoxide (CO), an important trace gas in the atmosphere with anthropogenic and natural sources, produced by incomplete combustion, for example, by wildfires. This paper looks at how well CAMS can model CO in the atmosphere and shows that the fields can be improved when blending CO data from the TROPOMI instrument with the CAMS model.
Johannes Quaas, Hailing Jia, Chris Smith, Anna Lea Albright, Wenche Aas, Nicolas Bellouin, Olivier Boucher, Marie Doutriaux-Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Daniel Grosvenor, Stuart Jenkins, Zbigniew Klimont, Norman G. Loeb, Xiaoyan Ma, Vaishali Naik, Fabien Paulot, Philip Stier, Martin Wild, Gunnar Myhre, and Michael Schulz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12221–12239, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, 2022
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Pollution particles cool climate and offset part of the global warming. However, they are washed out by rain and thus their effect responds quickly to changes in emissions. We show multiple datasets to demonstrate that aerosol emissions and their concentrations declined in many regions influenced by human emissions, as did the effects on clouds. Consequently, the cooling impact on the Earth energy budget became smaller. This change in trend implies a relative warming.
Thomas Drugé, Pierre Nabat, Marc Mallet, Martine Michou, Samuel Rémy, and Oleg Dubovik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12167–12205, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12167-2022, 2022
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This study presents the implementation of brown carbon in the atmospheric component of the CNRM global climate model and particularly in its aerosol scheme TACTIC. Several simulations were carried out with this climate model, over the period 2000–2014, to evaluate the model by comparison with different reference datasets (PARASOL-GRASP, OMI-OMAERUVd, MACv2, FMI_SAT, AERONET) and to analyze the brown carbon radiative and climatic effects.
Sébastien Gardoll and Olivier Boucher
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7051–7073, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7051-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7051-2022, 2022
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Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most devastating natural disasters, which justifies monitoring and prediction in the context of a changing climate. In this study, we have adapted and tested a convolutional neural network (CNN) for the classification of reanalysis outputs (ERA5 and MERRA-2 labeled by HURDAT2) according to the presence or absence of TCs. We tested the impact of interpolation and of "mixing and matching" the training and test sets on the performance of the CNN.
Sini Isokääntä, Paul Kim, Santtu Mikkonen, Thomas Kühn, Harri Kokkola, Taina Yli-Juuti, Liine Heikkinen, Krista Luoma, Tuukka Petäjä, Zak Kipling, Daniel Partridge, and Annele Virtanen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11823–11843, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11823-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11823-2022, 2022
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This research employs air mass history analysis and observations to study how clouds and precipitation affect atmospheric aerosols during transport to a boreal forest site. The mass concentrations of studied chemical species showed exponential decrease as a function of accumulated rain along the air mass route. Our analysis revealed in-cloud sulfate formation, while no major changes in organic mass were seen. Most of the in-cloud-formed sulfate could be assigned to particle sizes above 200 nm.
Qirui Zhong, Nick Schutgens, Guido van der Werf, Twan van Noije, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Tero Mielonen, Alf Kirkevåg, Øyvind Seland, Harri Kokkola, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, David Neubauer, Zak Kipling, Hitoshi Matsui, Paul Ginoux, Toshihiko Takemura, Philippe Le Sager, Samuel Rémy, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Kai Zhang, Jialei Zhu, Svetlana G. Tsyro, Gabriele Curci, Anna Protonotariou, Ben Johnson, Joyce E. Penner, Nicolas Bellouin, Ragnhild B. Skeie, and Gunnar Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11009–11032, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11009-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11009-2022, 2022
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Aerosol optical depth (AOD) errors for biomass burning aerosol (BBA) are evaluated in 18 global models against satellite datasets. Notwithstanding biases in satellite products, they allow model evaluations. We observe large and diverse model biases due to errors in BBA. Further interpretations of AOD diversities suggest large biases exist in key processes for BBA which require better constraining. These results can contribute to further model improvement and development.
Vincent Huijnen, Philippe Le Sager, Marcus O. Köhler, Glenn Carver, Samuel Rémy, Johannes Flemming, Simon Chabrillat, Quentin Errera, and Twan van Noije
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6221–6241, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6221-2022, 2022
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We report on the first implementation of atmospheric chemistry and aerosol as part of the OpenIFS model, based on the CAMS global model. We give an overview of the model and evaluate two reference model configurations, with and without the stratospheric chemistry extension, against a variety of observational datasets. This OpenIFS version with atmospheric composition components is open to the scientific user community under a standard OpenIFS license.
Peng Xian, Jianglong Zhang, Norm T. O'Neill, Travis D. Toth, Blake Sorenson, Peter R. Colarco, Zak Kipling, Edward J. Hyer, James R. Campbell, Jeffrey S. Reid, and Keyvan Ranjbar
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9915–9947, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9915-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9915-2022, 2022
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The study provides baseline Arctic spring and summertime aerosol optical depth climatology, trend, and extreme event statistics from 2003 to 2019 using a combination of aerosol reanalyses, remote sensing, and ground observations. Biomass burning smoke has an overwhelming contribution to black carbon (an efficient climate forcer) compared to anthropogenic sources. Burning's large interannual variability and increasing summer trend have important implications for the Arctic climate.
Samuel Rémy, Zak Kipling, Vincent Huijnen, Johannes Flemming, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Melanie Ades, Richard Engelen, and Vincent-Henri Peuch
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4881–4912, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4881-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4881-2022, 2022
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This article describes a new version of IFS-AER, the tropospheric aerosol scheme used to provide global aerosol products within the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) cycle. Several components of the model have been updated, such as the dynamical dust and sea salt aerosol emission schemes. New deposition schemes have also been incorporated but are not yet used operationally. This new version of IFS-AER has been evaluated and shown to have a greater skill than previous versions.
Jason E. Williams, Vincent Huijnen, Idir Bouarar, Mehdi Meziane, Timo Schreurs, Sophie Pelletier, Virginie Marécal, Beatrice Josse, and Johannes Flemming
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4657–4687, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4657-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4657-2022, 2022
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The global CAMS air quality model is used for providing tropospheric ozone information to end users. This paper updates the chemical mechanism employed (CBA) and compares it against two other mechanisms (MOCAGE, MOZART) and a multi-decadal dataset based on a previous version of CBA. We perform extensive validation for the US using multiple surface and aircraft datasets, providing an assessment of biases and the extent of correlation across different seasons during 2014.
Marc Guevara, Hervé Petetin, Oriol Jorba, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Jeroen Kuenen, Ingrid Super, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Elisa Majamäki, Lasse Johansson, Vincent-Henri Peuch, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2521–2552, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2521-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2521-2022, 2022
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To control the spread of the COVID-19 disease, European governments implemented mobility restriction measures that resulted in an unprecedented drop in anthropogenic emissions. This work presents a dataset of emission adjustment factors that allows quantifying changes in 2020 European primary emissions per country and pollutant sector at the daily scale. The resulting dataset can be used as input in modelling studies aiming at quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on air quality levels.
Dimitris Akritidis, Andrea Pozzer, Johannes Flemming, Antje Inness, Philippe Nédélec, and Prodromos Zanis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6275–6289, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6275-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6275-2022, 2022
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We perform a process-oriented evaluation of Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis (CAMSRA) O3 over Europe using WOUDC (World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre) ozonesondes and IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System) aircraft measurements. Chemical data assimilation assists CAMSRA to reproduce the observed O3 increases in the troposphere during the examined folding events, but it mostly results in O3 overestimation in the upper troposphere.
Joe McNorton, Nicolas Bousserez, Anna Agustí-Panareda, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Luca Cantarello, Richard Engelen, Vincent Huijnen, Antje Inness, Zak Kipling, Mark Parrington, and Roberto Ribas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5961–5981, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5961-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5961-2022, 2022
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Concentrations of atmospheric methane continue to grow, in recent years at an increasing rate, for unknown reasons. Using newly available satellite observations and a state-of-the-art weather prediction model we perform global estimates of emissions from hotspots at high resolution. Results show that the system can accurately report on biases in national inventories and is used to conclude that the early COVID-19 slowdown period (March–June 2020) had little impact on global methane emissions.
Irina Melnikova, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Katsumasa Tanaka, Thomas Gasser, Tomohiro Hajima, Yann Quilcaille, Hideo Shiogama, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Nicolas Vuichard, Tokuta Yokohata, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 779–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, 2022
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The deployment of bioenergy crops for capturing carbon from the atmosphere facilitates global warming mitigation via generating negative CO2 emissions. Here, we explored the consequences of large-scale energy crops deployment on the land carbon cycle. The land-use change for energy crops leads to carbon emissions and loss of future potential increase in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems. This impact should be taken into account by the modeling teams and accounted for in mitigation policies.
Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Andy Jones, James Haywood, Roland Séférian, Pierre Nabat, Olivier Boucher, Ewa Monica Bednarz, and Ulrike Niemeier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4557–4579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4557-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4557-2022, 2022
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This study assesses the impacts of climate interventions, using stratospheric sulfate aerosol and solar dimming on stratospheric ozone, based on three Earth system models with interactive stratospheric chemistry. The climate interventions have been applied to a high emission (baseline) scenario in order to reach global surface temperatures of a medium emission scenario. We find significant increases and decreases in total column ozone, depending on regions and seasons.
Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz, Alessio Bozzo, Nicholas Byrne, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Michail Diamantakis, Johannes Flemming, Lesley J. Gray, Robin J. Hogan, Luke Jones, Linus Magnusson, Inna Polichtchouk, Theodore G. Shepherd, Nils Wedi, and Antje Weisheimer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4277–4302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, 2022
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The stratosphere is emerging as one of the keys to improve tropospheric weather and climate predictions. This study provides evidence of the role the stratospheric ozone layer plays in improving weather predictions at different timescales. Using a new ozone modelling approach suitable for high-resolution global models that provide operational forecasts from days to seasons, we find significant improvements in stratospheric meteorological fields and stratosphere–troposphere coupling.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Adam A. Scaife, Olivier Boucher, Matthew Henry, Ben Kravitz, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2999–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, 2022
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Simulations by six Earth-system models of geoengineering by introducing sulfuric acid aerosols into the tropical stratosphere are compared. A robust impact on the northern wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation is found, exacerbating precipitation reduction over parts of southern Europe. In contrast, the models show no consistency with regard to impacts on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, although results do indicate a risk that the oscillation could become locked into a permanent westerly phase.
Antje Inness, Melanie Ades, Dimitris Balis, Dmitry Efremenko, Johannes Flemming, Pascal Hedelt, Maria-Elissavet Koukouli, Diego Loyola, and Roberto Ribas
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 971–994, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-971-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-971-2022, 2022
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This paper describes the way that the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) produces forecasts of volcanic SO2. These forecasts are provided routinely every day. They are created by blending SO2 data from satellite instruments (TROPOMI and GOME-2) with the CAMS model. We show that the quality of the CAMS SO2 forecasts can be improved if additional information about the height of volcanic plumes is provided in the satellite data.
Sarah J. Doherty, Pablo E. Saide, Paquita Zuidema, Yohei Shinozuka, Gonzalo A. Ferrada, Hamish Gordon, Marc Mallet, Kerry Meyer, David Painemal, Steven G. Howell, Steffen Freitag, Amie Dobracki, James R. Podolske, Sharon P. Burton, Richard A. Ferrare, Calvin Howes, Pierre Nabat, Gregory R. Carmichael, Arlindo da Silva, Kristina Pistone, Ian Chang, Lan Gao, Robert Wood, and Jens Redemann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1–46, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1-2022, 2022
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Between July and October, biomass burning smoke is advected over the southeastern Atlantic Ocean, leading to climate forcing. Model calculations of forcing by this plume vary significantly in both magnitude and sign. This paper compares aerosol and cloud properties observed during three NASA ORACLES field campaigns to the same in four models. It quantifies modeled biases in properties key to aerosol direct radiative forcing and evaluates how these biases propagate to biases in forcing.
Song Liu, Pieter Valks, Gaia Pinardi, Jian Xu, Ka Lok Chan, Athina Argyrouli, Ronny Lutz, Steffen Beirle, Ehsan Khorsandi, Frank Baier, Vincent Huijnen, Alkiviadis Bais, Sebastian Donner, Steffen Dörner, Myrto Gratsea, François Hendrick, Dimitris Karagkiozidis, Kezia Lange, Ankie J. M. Piters, Julia Remmers, Andreas Richter, Michel Van Roozendael, Thomas Wagner, Mark Wenig, and Diego G. Loyola
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 7297–7327, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7297-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7297-2021, 2021
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In this work, an improved tropospheric NO2 retrieval algorithm from TROPOMI measurements over Europe is presented. The stratospheric estimation is implemented with correction for the dependency of the stratospheric NO2 on the viewing geometry. The AMF calculation is implemented using improved surface albedo, a priori NO2 profiles, and cloud correction. The improved tropospheric NO2 data show good correlations with ground-based MAX-DOAS measurements.
Margarita Choulga, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Ingrid Super, Efisio Solazzo, Anna Agusti-Panareda, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Nicolas Bousserez, Monica Crippa, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Richard Engelen, Diego Guizzardi, Jeroen Kuenen, Joe McNorton, Gabriel Oreggioni, and Antoon Visschedijk
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5311–5335, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5311-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5311-2021, 2021
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People worry that growing man-made carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations lead to climate change. Global models, use of observations, and datasets can help us better understand behaviour of CO2. Here a tool to compute uncertainty in man-made CO2 sources per country per year and month is presented. An example of all sources separated into seven groups (intensive and average energy, industry, humans, ground and air transport, others) is presented. Results will be used to predict CO2 concentrations.
Hugues Brenot, Nicolas Theys, Lieven Clarisse, Jeroen van Gent, Daniel R. Hurtmans, Sophie Vandenbussche, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Lucia Mona, Timo Virtanen, Andreas Uppstu, Mikhail Sofiev, Luca Bugliaro, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Pascal Hedelt, Michelle Maree Parks, Sara Barsotti, Mauro Coltelli, William Moreland, Simona Scollo, Giuseppe Salerno, Delia Arnold-Arias, Marcus Hirtl, Tuomas Peltonen, Juhani Lahtinen, Klaus Sievers, Florian Lipok, Rolf Rüfenacht, Alexander Haefele, Maxime Hervo, Saskia Wagenaar, Wim Som de Cerff, Jos de Laat, Arnoud Apituley, Piet Stammes, Quentin Laffineur, Andy Delcloo, Robertson Lennart, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Arturo Vargas, Markus Kerschbaum, Christian Resch, Raimund Zopp, Matthieu Plu, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Michel Van Roozendael, and Gerhard Wotawa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3367–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3367-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3367-2021, 2021
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The purpose of the EUNADICS-AV (European Natural Airborne Disaster Information and Coordination System for Aviation) prototype early warning system (EWS) is to develop the combined use of harmonised data products from satellite, ground-based and in situ instruments to produce alerts of airborne hazards (volcanic, dust, smoke and radionuclide clouds), satisfying the requirement of aviation air traffic management (ATM) stakeholders (https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/723986).
Maria Sand, Bjørn H. Samset, Gunnar Myhre, Jonas Gliß, Susanne E. Bauer, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Paul Ginoux, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Philippe Le Sager, Marianne T. Lund, Hitoshi Matsui, Twan van Noije, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Samuel Remy, Michael Schulz, Philip Stier, Camilla W. Stjern, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana G. Tsyro, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15929–15947, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, 2021
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Absorption of shortwave radiation by aerosols can modify precipitation and clouds but is poorly constrained in models. A total of 15 different aerosol models from AeroCom phase III have reported total aerosol absorption, and for the first time, 11 of these models have reported in a consistent experiment the contributions to absorption from black carbon, dust, and organic aerosol. Here, we document the model diversity in aerosol absorption.
Anthony C. Jones, Adrian Hill, Samuel Remy, N. Luke Abraham, Mohit Dalvi, Catherine Hardacre, Alan J. Hewitt, Ben Johnson, Jane P. Mulcahy, and Steven T. Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15901–15927, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15901-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15901-2021, 2021
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Ammonium nitrate is hard to model because it forms and evaporates rapidly. One approach is to relate its equilibrium concentration to temperature, humidity, and the amount of nitric acid and ammonia gases. Using this approach, we limit the rate at which equilibrium is reached using various condensation rates in a climate model. We show that ammonium nitrate concentrations are highly sensitive to the condensation rate. Our results will help improve the representation of nitrate in climate models.
Xinxin Ye, Pargoal Arab, Ravan Ahmadov, Eric James, Georg A. Grell, Bradley Pierce, Aditya Kumar, Paul Makar, Jack Chen, Didier Davignon, Greg R. Carmichael, Gonzalo Ferrada, Jeff McQueen, Jianping Huang, Rajesh Kumar, Louisa Emmons, Farren L. Herron-Thorpe, Mark Parrington, Richard Engelen, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Arlindo da Silva, Amber Soja, Emily Gargulinski, Elizabeth Wiggins, Johnathan W. Hair, Marta Fenn, Taylor Shingler, Shobha Kondragunta, Alexei Lyapustin, Yujie Wang, Brent Holben, David M. Giles, and Pablo E. Saide
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14427–14469, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14427-2021, 2021
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Wildfire smoke has crucial impacts on air quality, while uncertainties in the numerical forecasts remain significant. We present an evaluation of 12 real-time forecasting systems. Comparison of predicted smoke emissions suggests a large spread in magnitudes, with temporal patterns deviating from satellite detections. The performance for AOD and surface PM2.5 and their discrepancies highlighted the role of accurately represented spatiotemporal emission profiles in improving smoke forecasts.
Alex Resovsky, Michel Ramonet, Leonard Rivier, Jerome Tarniewicz, Philippe Ciais, Martin Steinbacher, Ivan Mammarella, Meelis Mölder, Michal Heliasz, Dagmar Kubistin, Matthias Lindauer, Jennifer Müller-Williams, Sebastien Conil, and Richard Engelen
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 6119–6135, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6119-2021, 2021
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We present a technical description of a statistical methodology for extracting synoptic- and seasonal-length anomalies from greenhouse gas time series. The definition of what represents an anomalous signal is somewhat subjective, which we touch on throughout the paper. We show, however, that the method performs reasonably well in extracting portions of time series influenced by significant North Atlantic Oscillation weather episodes and continent-wide terrestrial biospheric aberrations.
Antoine Berchet, Espen Sollum, Rona L. Thompson, Isabelle Pison, Joël Thanwerdas, Grégoire Broquet, Frédéric Chevallier, Tuula Aalto, Adrien Berchet, Peter Bergamaschi, Dominik Brunner, Richard Engelen, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Christoph Gerbig, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Stephan Henne, Sander Houweling, Ute Karstens, Werner L. Kutsch, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Guillaume Monteil, Paul I. Palmer, Jacob C. A. van Peet, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Elise Potier, Christian Rödenbeck, Marielle Saunois, Marko Scholze, Aki Tsuruta, and Yuanhong Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5331–5354, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5331-2021, 2021
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We present here the Community Inversion Framework (CIF) to help rationalize development efforts and leverage the strengths of individual inversion systems into a comprehensive framework. The CIF is a programming protocol to allow various inversion bricks to be exchanged among researchers.
The ensemble of bricks makes a flexible, transparent and open-source Python-based tool. We describe the main structure and functionalities and demonstrate it in a simple academic case.
Yves Balkanski, Rémy Bonnet, Olivier Boucher, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, and Jérôme Servonnat
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11423–11435, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11423-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11423-2021, 2021
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Earth system models have persistent biases that impinge on our ability to make robust future regional predictions of precipitation. For the last 15 years, there has been little improvement in these biases. This work presents an accurate representation of dust absorption based upon observed dust mineralogical composition and size distribution. The striking result is that this more accurate representation improves tropical precipitations for climate models with too weak an African monsoon.
Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Yves Balkanski, Samuel Albani, Tommi Bergman, Ken Carslaw, Anne Cozic, Chris Dearden, Beatrice Marticorena, Martine Michou, Twan van Noije, Pierre Nabat, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Joseph M. Prospero, Philippe Le Sager, Michael Schulz, and Catherine Scott
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10295–10335, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10295-2021, 2021
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Thousands of tons of dust are emitted into the atmosphere every year, producing important impacts on the Earth system. However, current global climate models are not yet able to reproduce dust emissions, transport and depositions with the desirable accuracy. Our study analyses five different Earth system models to report aspects to be improved to reproduce better available observations, increase the consistency between models and therefore decrease the current uncertainties.
Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Olivier Boucher, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Michou Martine, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10039–10063, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, 2021
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A new set of simulations is used to investigate commonalities, differences and sources of uncertainty when simulating the injection of SO2 in the stratosphere in order to mitigate the effects of climate change (solar geoengineering). The models differ in how they simulate the aerosols and how they spread around the stratosphere, resulting in differences in projected regional impacts. Overall, however, the models agree that aerosols have the potential to mitigate the warming produced by GHGs.
Julien Jouanno, Rachid Benshila, Léo Berline, Antonin Soulié, Marie-Hélène Radenac, Guillaume Morvan, Frédéric Diaz, Julio Sheinbaum, Cristele Chevalier, Thierry Thibaut, Thomas Changeux, Frédéric Menard, Sarah Berthet, Olivier Aumont, Christian Ethé, Pierre Nabat, and Marc Mallet
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4069–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4069-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4069-2021, 2021
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The tropical Atlantic has been facing a massive proliferation of Sargassum since 2011, with severe environmental and socioeconomic impacts. We developed a modeling framework based on the NEMO ocean model, which integrates transport by currents and waves, and physiology of Sargassum with varying internal nutrient quota, and considers stranding at the coast. Results demonstrate the ability of the model to reproduce and forecast the seasonal cycle and large-scale distribution of Sargassum biomass.
Josué Bock, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Manabu Abe, Jane P. Mulcahy, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Jörg Schwinger, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Jerry Tjiputra, Marco van Hulten, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Roland Séférian
Biogeosciences, 18, 3823–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, 2021
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In this study we analyse surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentration and flux to the atmosphere from four CMIP6 Earth system models over the historical and ssp585 simulations.
Our analysis of contemporary (1980–2009) climatologies shows that models better reproduce observations in mid to high latitudes. The models disagree on the sign of the trend of the global DMS flux from 1980 onwards. The models agree on a positive trend of DMS over polar latitudes following sea-ice retreat dynamics.
Thomas Drugé, Pierre Nabat, Marc Mallet, and Samuel Somot
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7639–7669, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7639-2021, 2021
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This study presents the surface mass concentration and AOD evolution of various aerosols over the Euro-Mediterranean region between the end of the 20th century and the mid-21st century. This study also describes the part of the expected climate change over the Euro-Mediterranean region that can be explained by the evolution of these different aerosols.
Jérôme Barré, Hervé Petetin, Augustin Colette, Marc Guevara, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Laurence Rouil, Richard Engelen, Antje Inness, Johannes Flemming, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Dene Bowdalo, Frederik Meleux, Camilla Geels, Jesper H. Christensen, Michael Gauss, Anna Benedictow, Svetlana Tsyro, Elmar Friese, Joanna Struzewska, Jacek W. Kaminski, John Douros, Renske Timmermans, Lennart Robertson, Mario Adani, Oriol Jorba, Mathieu Joly, and Rostislav Kouznetsov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7373–7394, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7373-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7373-2021, 2021
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This study provides a comprehensive assessment of air quality changes across the main European urban areas induced by the COVID-19 lockdown using satellite observations, surface site measurements, and the forecasting system from the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). We demonstrate the importance of accounting for weather and seasonal variability when calculating such estimates.
Yuan Zhang, Olivier Boucher, Philippe Ciais, Laurent Li, and Nicolas Bellouin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2029–2039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2029-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2029-2021, 2021
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We investigated different methods to reconstruct spatiotemporal distribution of the fraction of diffuse radiation (Fdf) to qualify the aerosol impacts on GPP using the ORCHIDEE_DF land surface model. We find that climatological-averaging methods which dampen the variability of Fdf can cause significant bias in the modeled diffuse radiation impacts on GPP. Better methods to reconstruct Fdf are recommended.
Jérôme Barré, Ilse Aben, Anna Agustí-Panareda, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Nicolas Bousserez, Peter Dueben, Richard Engelen, Antje Inness, Alba Lorente, Joe McNorton, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Gabor Radnoti, and Roberto Ribas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5117–5136, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5117-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5117-2021, 2021
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This study presents a new approach to the systematic global detection of anomalous local CH4 concentration anomalies caused by rapid changes in anthropogenic emission levels. The approach utilises both satellite measurements and model simulations, and applies novel data analysis techniques (such as filtering and classification) to automatically detect anomalous emissions from point sources and small areas, such as oil and gas drilling sites, pipelines and facility leaks.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
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Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Harald Flentje, Ina Mattis, Zak Kipling, Samuel Rémy, and Werner Thomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1721–1751, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1721-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1721-2021, 2021
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Atmospheric aerosols crucially impact air quality, climate and weather. Thus, global model forecasts of atmospheric constituents are published daily on the ECMWF website and are regularly verified by the CAMS service team. The IFS-AER model is largely able to reproduce observed 3-D distributions of the important particle types over Germany. The particle concentration is mostly captured within several tens of percent, but quantification of some specific processes still remains a challenge.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Alan Robock, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4231–4247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, 2021
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This study investigates multi-model response to idealized geoengineering (high CO2 with solar reduction) across two different generations of climate models. We find that, with the exception of a few cases, the results are unchanged between the different generations. This gives us confidence that broad conclusions about the response to idealized geoengineering are robust.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
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We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Gillian Thornhill, William Collins, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alex Archibald, Susanne Bauer, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Stephanie Fiedler, Gerd Folberth, Ada Gjermundsen, Larry Horowitz, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Fabien Paulot, Michael Schulz, Catherine E. Scott, Roland Séférian, Chris Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and James Weber
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1105–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, 2021
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We find that increased temperatures affect aerosols and reactive gases by changing natural emissions and their rates of removal from the atmosphere. Changing the composition of these species in the atmosphere affects the radiative budget of the climate system and therefore amplifies or dampens the climate response of climate models of the Earth system. This study found that the largest effect is a dampening of climate change as warmer temperatures increase the emissions of cooling aerosols.
Gillian D. Thornhill, William J. Collins, Ryan J. Kramer, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Piers M. Forster, Larry W. Horowitz, Ben Johnson, James Keeble, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Jane P. Mulcahy, Gunnar Myhre, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Christopher J. Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Tongwen Wu, Guang Zeng, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 853–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, 2021
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This paper is a study of how different constituents in the atmosphere, such as aerosols and gases like methane and ozone, affect the energy balance in the atmosphere. Different climate models were run using the same inputs to allow an easy comparison of the results and to understand where the models differ. We found the effect of aerosols is to reduce warming in the atmosphere, but this effect varies between models. Reactions between gases are also important in affecting climate.
Marc Guevara, Oriol Jorba, Albert Soret, Hervé Petetin, Dene Bowdalo, Kim Serradell, Carles Tena, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Jeroen Kuenen, Vincent-Henri Peuch, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 773–797, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-773-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-773-2021, 2021
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Most European countries have imposed lockdowns to combat the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Such a socioeconomic disruption has resulted in a sudden drop of atmospheric emissions and air pollution levels. This study quantifies the daily reductions in national emissions and associated levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) due to the COVID-19 lockdowns in Europe, by making use of multiple open-access measured activity data as well as artificial intelligence and modelling techniques.
Jonas Gliß, Augustin Mortier, Michael Schulz, Elisabeth Andrews, Yves Balkanski, Susanne E. Bauer, Anna M. K. Benedictow, Huisheng Bian, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Mian Chin, Paul Ginoux, Jan J. Griesfeller, Andreas Heckel, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Paolo Laj, Philippe Le Sager, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Hitoshi Matsui, Gunnar Myhre, David Neubauer, Twan van Noije, Peter North, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Samuel Rémy, Larisa Sogacheva, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Svetlana G. Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 87–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-87-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-87-2021, 2021
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Simulated aerosol optical properties as well as the aerosol life cycle are investigated for 14 global models participating in the AeroCom initiative. Considerable diversity is found in the simulated aerosol species emissions and lifetimes, also resulting in a large diversity in the simulated aerosol mass, composition, and optical properties. A comparison with observations suggests that, on average, current models underestimate the direct effect of aerosol on the atmosphere radiation budget.
Kine Onsum Moseid, Michael Schulz, Trude Storelvmo, Ingeborg Rian Julsrud, Dirk Olivié, Pierre Nabat, Martin Wild, Jason N. S. Cole, Toshihiko Takemura, Naga Oshima, Susanne E. Bauer, and Guillaume Gastineau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 16023–16040, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-16023-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-16023-2020, 2020
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In this study we compare solar radiation at the surface from observations and Earth system models from 1961 to 2014. We find that the models do not reproduce the so-called
global dimmingas found in observations. Only model experiments with anthropogenic aerosol emissions display any dimming at all. The discrepancies between observations and models are largest in China, which we suggest is in part due to erroneous aerosol precursor emission inventories in the emission dataset used for CMIP6.
Jane P. Mulcahy, Colin Johnson, Colin G. Jones, Adam C. Povey, Catherine E. Scott, Alistair Sellar, Steven T. Turnock, Matthew T. Woodhouse, Nathan Luke Abraham, Martin B. Andrews, Nicolas Bellouin, Jo Browse, Ken S. Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Matthew Glover, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Catherine Hardacre, Richard Hill, Ben Johnson, Andy Jones, Zak Kipling, Graham Mann, James Mollard, Fiona M. O'Connor, Julien Palmiéri, Carly Reddington, Steven T. Rumbold, Mark Richardson, Nick A. J. Schutgens, Philip Stier, Marc Stringer, Yongming Tang, Jeremy Walton, Stephanie Woodward, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6383–6423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, 2020
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Aerosols are an important component of the Earth system. Here, we comprehensively document and evaluate the aerosol schemes as implemented in the physical and Earth system models, HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1. This study provides a useful characterisation of the aerosol climatology in both models, facilitating the understanding of the numerous aerosol–climate interaction studies that will be conducted for CMIP6 and beyond.
François Tuzet, Marie Dumont, Ghislain Picard, Maxim Lamare, Didier Voisin, Pierre Nabat, Mathieu Lafaysse, Fanny Larue, Jesus Revuelto, and Laurent Arnaud
The Cryosphere, 14, 4553–4579, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4553-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4553-2020, 2020
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This study presents a field dataset collected over 30 d from two snow seasons at a Col du Lautaret site (French Alps). The dataset compares different measurements or estimates of light-absorbing particle (LAP) concentrations in snow, highlighting a gap in the current understanding of the measurement of these quantities. An ensemble snowpack model is then evaluated for this dataset estimating that LAPs shorten each snow season by around 10 d despite contrasting meteorological conditions.
Peng Xian, Philip J. Klotzbach, Jason P. Dunion, Matthew A. Janiga, Jeffrey S. Reid, Peter R. Colarco, and Zak Kipling
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15357–15378, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15357-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15357-2020, 2020
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Using dust AOD (DAOD) data from three aerosol reanalyses, we explored the correlative relationships between DAOD and multiple indices representing seasonal Atlantic TC activities. A robust negative correlation with Caribbean DAOD and Atlantic TC activity was found. We documented for the first time the regional differences of this relationship for over the Caribbean and the tropical North Atlantic. We also evaluated the impacts of potential confounding climate factors in this relationship.
Steven T. Turnock, Robert J. Allen, Martin Andrews, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa Emmons, Peter Good, Larry Horowitz, Jasmin G. John, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, David Neubauer, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Alistair Sellar, Sungbo Shim, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14547–14579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, 2020
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A first assessment is made of the historical and future changes in air pollutants from models participating in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Substantial benefits to future air quality can be achieved in future scenarios that implement measures to mitigate climate and involve reductions in air pollutant emissions, particularly methane. However, important differences are shown between models in the future regional projection of air pollutants under the same scenario.
Cécile Guieu, Fabrizio D'Ortenzio, François Dulac, Vincent Taillandier, Andrea Doglioli, Anne Petrenko, Stéphanie Barrillon, Marc Mallet, Pierre Nabat, and Karine Desboeufs
Biogeosciences, 17, 5563–5585, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5563-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5563-2020, 2020
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We describe here the objectives and strategy of the PEACETIME project and cruise, dedicated to dust deposition and its impacts in the Mediterranean Sea. Our strategy to go a step further forward than in previous approaches in understanding these impacts by catching a real deposition event at sea is detailed. We summarize the work performed at sea, the type of data acquired and their valorization in the papers published in the special issue.
Dimitris Akritidis, Eleni Katragkou, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Prodromos Zanis, Stergios Kartsios, Johannes Flemming, Antje Inness, John Douros, and Henk Eskes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13557–13578, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13557-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13557-2020, 2020
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We assess the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global and regional forecasts performance during a complex aerosol transport event over Europe induced by the passage of Storm Ophelia in mid-October 2017. Comparison with satellite observations reveals a satisfactory performance of CAMS global forecast assisted by data assimilation, while comparison with ground-based measurements indicates that the CAMS regional system over-performs compared to the global one in terms of air quality.
Camilla W. Stjern, Bjørn H. Samset, Olivier Boucher, Trond Iversen, Jean-François Lamarque, Gunnar Myhre, Drew Shindell, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13467–13480, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13467-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13467-2020, 2020
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The span between the warmest and coldest temperatures over a day is a climate parameter that influences both agriculture and human health. Using data from 10 models, we show how individual climate drivers such as greenhouse gases and aerosols produce distinctly different responses in this parameter in high-emission regions. Given the high uncertainty in future aerosol emissions, this improved understanding of the temperature responses may ultimately help these regions prepare for future changes.
Stelios Myriokefalitakis, Nikos Daskalakis, Angelos Gkouvousis, Andreas Hilboll, Twan van Noije, Jason E. Williams, Philippe Le Sager, Vincent Huijnen, Sander Houweling, Tommi Bergman, Johann Rasmus Nüß, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Maria Kanakidou, and Maarten C. Krol
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5507–5548, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5507-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5507-2020, 2020
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This work documents and evaluates the detailed tropospheric gas-phase chemical mechanism MOGUNTIA in the three-dimensional chemistry transport model TM5-MP. The Rosenbrock solver, as generated by the KPP software, is implemented in the chemistry code, which can successfully replace the classical Euler backward integration method. The MOGUNTIA scheme satisfactorily simulates a large suite of oxygenated volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that are observed in the atmosphere at significant levels.
Augustin Mortier, Jonas Gliß, Michael Schulz, Wenche Aas, Elisabeth Andrews, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Paul Ginoux, Jenny Hand, Brent Holben, Hua Zhang, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Paolo Laj, Thibault Lurton, Gunnar Myhre, David Neubauer, Dirk Olivié, Knut von Salzen, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13355–13378, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13355-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13355-2020, 2020
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We present a multiparameter analysis of the aerosol trends over the last 2 decades in the different regions of the world. In most of the regions, ground-based observations show a decrease in aerosol content in both the total atmospheric column and at the surface. The use of climate models, assessed against these observations, reveals however an increase in the total aerosol load, which is not seen with the sole use of observation due to partial coverage in space and time.
Marc Mallet, Fabien Solmon, Pierre Nabat, Nellie Elguindi, Fabien Waquet, Dominique Bouniol, Andrew Mark Sayer, Kerry Meyer, Romain Roehrig, Martine Michou, Paquita Zuidema, Cyrille Flamant, Jens Redemann, and Paola Formenti
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13191–13216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13191-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13191-2020, 2020
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This paper presents numerical simulations using two regional climate models to study the impact of biomass fire plumes from central Africa on the radiative balance of this region. The results indicate that biomass fires can either warm the regional climate when they are located above low clouds or cool it when they are located above land. They can also alter sea and land surface temperatures by decreasing solar radiation at the surface. Finally, they can also modify the atmospheric dynamics.
Yuan Zhang, Ana Bastos, Fabienne Maignan, Daniel Goll, Olivier Boucher, Laurent Li, Alessandro Cescatti, Nicolas Vuichard, Xiuzhi Chen, Christof Ammann, M. Altaf Arain, T. Andrew Black, Bogdan Chojnicki, Tomomichi Kato, Ivan Mammarella, Leonardo Montagnani, Olivier Roupsard, Maria J. Sanz, Lukas Siebicke, Marek Urbaniak, Francesco Primo Vaccari, Georg Wohlfahrt, Will Woodgate, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5401–5423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5401-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5401-2020, 2020
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We improved the ORCHIDEE LSM by distinguishing diffuse and direct light in canopy and evaluated the new model with observations from 159 sites. Compared with the old model, the new model has better sunny GPP and reproduced the diffuse light fertilization effect observed at flux sites. Our simulations also indicate different mechanisms causing the observed GPP enhancement under cloudy conditions at different times. The new model has the potential to study large-scale impacts of aerosol changes.
Debbie O'Sullivan, Franco Marenco, Claire L. Ryder, Yaswant Pradhan, Zak Kipling, Ben Johnson, Angela Benedetti, Melissa Brooks, Matthew McGill, John Yorks, and Patrick Selmer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12955–12982, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12955-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12955-2020, 2020
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Mineral dust is an important component of the climate system, and we assess how well it is predicted by two operational models. We flew an aircraft in the dust layers in the eastern Atlantic, and we also make use of satellites. We show that models predict the dust layer too low and that it predicts the particles to be too small. We believe that these discrepancies may be overcome if models can be constrained with operational observations of dust vertical and size-resolved distribution.
María A. Burgos, Elisabeth Andrews, Gloria Titos, Angela Benedetti, Huisheng Bian, Virginie Buchard, Gabriele Curci, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Anton Laakso, Julie Letertre-Danczak, Marianne T. Lund, Hitoshi Matsui, Gunnar Myhre, Cynthia Randles, Michael Schulz, Twan van Noije, Kai Zhang, Lucas Alados-Arboledas, Urs Baltensperger, Anne Jefferson, James Sherman, Junying Sun, Ernest Weingartner, and Paul Zieger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10231–10258, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10231-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10231-2020, 2020
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We investigate how well models represent the enhancement in scattering coefficients due to particle water uptake, and perform an evaluation of several implementation schemes used in ten Earth system models. Our results show the importance of the parameterization of hygroscopicity and model chemistry as drivers of some of the observed diversity amongst model estimates. The definition of dry conditions and the phenomena taking place in this relative humidity range also impact the model evaluation.
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020
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Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Robert J. Allen, Steven Turnock, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Ulrike Lohmann, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Martine Michou, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Toshihiko Takemura, Michael Schulz, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Louisa Emmons, Larry Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Twan van Noije, Tommi Bergman, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Prodromos Zanis, Ina Tegen, Daniel M. Westervelt, Philippe Le Sager, Peter Good, Sungbo Shim, Fiona O'Connor, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Makoto Deushi, Lori T. Sentman, Jasmin G. John, Shinichiro Fujimori, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9641–9663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, 2020
Christopher J. Smith, Ryan J. Kramer, Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, William Collins, Adriana Sima, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Seiji Yukimoto, Jason Cole, David Paynter, Hideo Shiogama, Fiona M. O'Connor, Eddy Robertson, Andy Wiltshire, Timothy Andrews, Cécile Hannay, Ron Miller, Larissa Nazarenko, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Stephanie Fiedler, Anna Lewinschal, Chloe Mackallah, Martin Dix, Robert Pincus, and Piers M. Forster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9591–9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, 2020
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The spread in effective radiative forcing for both CO2 and aerosols is narrower in the latest CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) generation than in CMIP5. For the case of CO2 it is likely that model radiation parameterisations have improved. Tropospheric and stratospheric radiative adjustments to the forcing behave differently for different forcing agents, and there is still significant diversity in how clouds respond to forcings, particularly for total anthropogenic forcing.
Alexander Ukhov, Suleiman Mostamandi, Arlindo da Silva, Johannes Flemming, Yasser Alshehri, Illia Shevchenko, and Georgiy Stenchikov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9281–9310, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9281-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9281-2020, 2020
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The data assimilation products MERRA2 and CAMS are tested over the Middle East (ME) against in situ and satellite observations. For the first time, we compared the new MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval, MAIAC, with the Deep Blue and Dark Target MODIS AOD. We conducted 2-year high-resolution WRF-Chem simulations with the most accurate OMI-HTAP SO2 emissions to estimate the contribution of natural and anthropogenic aerosols to the PM pollution in the ME.
Pierre Nabat, Samuel Somot, Christophe Cassou, Marc Mallet, Martine Michou, Dominique Bouniol, Bertrand Decharme, Thomas Drugé, Romain Roehrig, and David Saint-Martin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8315–8349, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8315-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8315-2020, 2020
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The present work aims at better understanding regional climate–aerosol interactions over the Euro-Mediterranean region by studying the relationships between aerosols and atmospheric circulation. Based on 40-year regional climate simulations (1979–2018), our results show the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in driving the interannual aerosol variability, and that of weather regimes for the daily variability, with ensuing effects on shortwave surface radiation and surface temperature.
Prodromos Zanis, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Robert J. Allen, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Jason Cole, Ben Johnson, Makoto Deushi, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Adriana Sima, Michael Schulz, Toshihiko Takemura, and Konstantinos Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8381–8404, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8381-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8381-2020, 2020
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In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 10 Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) to study the fast climate responses on pre-industrial climate, due to present-day aerosols. All models carried out two sets of simulations: a control experiment with all forcings set to the year 1850 and a perturbation experiment with all forcings identical to the control, except for aerosols with precursor emissions set to the year 2014.
Nicolas Bellouin, Will Davies, Keith P. Shine, Johannes Quaas, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Lindsay Lee, Leighton Regayre, Guy Brasseur, Natalia Sudarchikova, Idir Bouarar, Olivier Boucher, and Gunnar Myhre
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1649–1677, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1649-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1649-2020, 2020
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Quantifying the imbalance in the Earth's energy budget caused by human activities is important to understand and predict climate changes. This study presents new estimates of the imbalance caused by changes in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, and particles of pollution. Over the period 2003–2017, the overall imbalance has been positive, indicating that the climate system has gained energy and will warm further.
Pierre Sepulchre, Arnaud Caubel, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Pascale Braconnot, Patrick Brockmann, Anne Cozic, Yannick Donnadieu, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Victor Estella-Perez, Christian Ethé, Frédéric Fluteau, Marie-Alice Foujols, Guillaume Gastineau, Josefine Ghattas, Didier Hauglustaine, Frédéric Hourdin, Masa Kageyama, Myriam Khodri, Olivier Marti, Yann Meurdesoif, Juliette Mignot, Anta-Clarisse Sarr, Jérôme Servonnat, Didier Swingedouw, Sophie Szopa, and Delphine Tardif
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3011–3053, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3011-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3011-2020, 2020
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Our paper describes IPSL-CM5A2, an Earth system model that can be integrated for long (several thousands of years) climate simulations. We describe the technical aspects, assess the model computing performance and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the model, by comparing pre-industrial and historical runs to the previous-generation model simulations and to observations. We also present a Cretaceous simulation as a case study to show how the model simulates deep-time paleoclimates.
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Vincenzo Rizi, Marco Iarlori, Irene Cionni, Ilaria Quaglia, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando Garcia, Patrick Joeckel, Douglas Kinnison, Jean-François Lamarque, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Tatsuya Nagashima, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David Plummer, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
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In this work we analyse the trend in ozone profiles taken at L'Aquila (Italy, 42.4° N) for seventeen years, between 2000 and 2016 and compare them against already available measured ozone trends. We try to understand and explain the observed trends at various heights in light of the simulations from seventeen different model, highlighting the contribution of changes in circulation and chemical ozone loss during this time period.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
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The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Joe R. McNorton, Nicolas Bousserez, Anna Agustí-Panareda, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Margarita Choulga, Andrew Dawson, Richard Engelen, Zak Kipling, and Simon Lang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2297–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2297-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2297-2020, 2020
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To infer carbon emissions from observations using atmospheric models, detailed knowledge of uncertainty is required. The uncertainties associated with models are often estimated because they are difficult to attribute. Here we use a state-of-the-art weather model to assess the impact of uncertainty in the wind fields on atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. These results can be used to help quantify the uncertainty in estimated carbon emissions from atmospheric observations.
Zak Kipling, Laurent Labbouz, and Philip Stier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4445–4460, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4445-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4445-2020, 2020
Yuting Wang, Yong-Feng Ma, Henk Eskes, Antje Inness, Johannes Flemming, and Guy P. Brasseur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4493–4521, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4493-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4493-2020, 2020
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The paper presents an evaluation of the CAMS global reanalysis of reactive gases performed for the period 2003–2016. The evaluation is performed by comparing concentrations of chemical species gathered during airborne field campaigns with calculated values. The reanalysis successfully reproduces the observed concentrations of ozone and carbon monoxide but generally underestimates the abundance of hydrocarbons. Large discrepancies exist for fast-reacting radicals such as OH and HO2.
Vincent Huijnen, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Johannes Flemming, Antje Inness, Takashi Sekiya, and Martin G. Schultz
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1513–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1513-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1513-2020, 2020
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We present the evaluation and intercomparison of global tropospheric ozone reanalyses that have been produced in recent years. Such reanalyses can be used to assess the current state and variability of tropospheric ozone.
The reanalyses show overall good agreements with independent ground and ozone-sonde observations for the diurnal, synoptical, seasonal, and interannual variabilities, with generally improved performances for the updated reanalyses.
Alessio Bozzo, Angela Benedetti, Johannes Flemming, Zak Kipling, and Samuel Rémy
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1007–1034, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1007-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1007-2020, 2020
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Aerosols are tiny particles of natural and anthropogenic origin transported by the winds in the Earth's atmosphere. These particles play a key role in the energy budget of our planet. In numerical models of the Earth's atmosphere, aerosols spatial distribution are often represented by conditions averaged over several years. We prepared a new aerosol climatology and used it in a numerical weather model. We show that in certain regions aerosols can affect the quality of numerical weather forecast.
Song Liu, Pieter Valks, Gaia Pinardi, Jian Xu, Athina Argyrouli, Ronny Lutz, L. Gijsbert Tilstra, Vincent Huijnen, François Hendrick, and Michel Van Roozendael
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 755–787, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-755-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-755-2020, 2020
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This paper presents an improved tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) retrieval algorithm from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) instrument based on air mass factor (AMF) calculations that are
performed with a more accurate knowledge of surface albedo, the a priori NO2 profile, and cloud and aerosol corrections.
Adeyemi A. Adebiyi, Jasper F. Kok, Yang Wang, Akinori Ito, David A. Ridley, Pierre Nabat, and Chun Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 829–863, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-829-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-829-2020, 2020
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Although atmospheric dust particles produce significant impacts on the Earth system, most climate models still have difficulty representing the basic processes that affect these particles. In this study, we present new constraints on dust properties that consistently outperform the conventional climate models, when compared to independent measurements. As a result, our constraints can be used to improve climate models or serve as an alternative in constraining dust impacts on the Earth system.
Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Bjørn H. Samset, Kari Alterskjær, Timothy Andrews, Olivier Boucher, Gregory Faluvegi, Dagmar Fläschner, Piers M. Forster, Matthew Kasoar, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Dirk Olivié, Thomas B. Richardson, Dilshad Shawki, Drew Shindell, Keith P. Shine, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12887–12899, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019, 2019
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Different greenhouse gases (e.g. CO2) and aerosols (e.g. black carbon) impact the Earth’s water cycle differently. Here we investigate how various gases and particles impact atmospheric water vapour and its lifetime, i.e., the average number of days that water vapour stays in the atmosphere after evaporation and before precipitation. We find that this lifetime could increase substantially by the end of this century, indicating that important changes in precipitation patterns are excepted.
Kévin Lamy, Thierry Portafaix, Béatrice Josse, Colette Brogniez, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Hassan Bencherif, Laura Revell, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Michaela I. Hegglin, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Ben Liley, Virginie Marecal, Olaf Morgenstern, Andrea Stenke, Guang Zeng, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Neil Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Glauco Di Genova, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rong-Ming Hu, Douglas Kinnison, Michael Kotkamp, Richard McKenzie, Martine Michou, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Daniele Visioni, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10087–10110, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, 2019
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In this study, we simulate the ultraviolet radiation evolution during the 21st century on Earth's surface using the output from several numerical models which participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative. We present four possible futures which depend on greenhouse gases emissions. The role of ozone-depleting substances, greenhouse gases and aerosols are investigated. Our results emphasize the important role of aerosols for future ultraviolet radiation in the Northern Hemisphere.
Anna Agustí-Panareda, Michail Diamantakis, Sébastien Massart, Frédéric Chevallier, Joaquín Muñoz-Sabater, Jérôme Barré, Roger Curcoll, Richard Engelen, Bavo Langerock, Rachel M. Law, Zoë Loh, Josep Anton Morguí, Mark Parrington, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Michel Ramonet, Coleen Roehl, Alex T. Vermeulen, Thorsten Warneke, and Debra Wunch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7347–7376, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7347-2019, 2019
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This paper demonstrates the benefits of using global models with high horizontal resolution to represent atmospheric CO2 patterns associated with evolving weather. The modelling of CO2 weather is crucial to interpret the variability from ground-based and satellite CO2 observations, which can then be used to infer CO2 fluxes in atmospheric inversions. The benefits of high resolution come from an improved representation of the topography, winds, tracer transport and CO2 flux distribution.
Vincent Huijnen, Andrea Pozzer, Joaquim Arteta, Guy Brasseur, Idir Bouarar, Simon Chabrillat, Yves Christophe, Thierno Doumbia, Johannes Flemming, Jonathan Guth, Béatrice Josse, Vlassis A. Karydis, Virginie Marécal, and Sophie Pelletier
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1725–1752, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1725-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1725-2019, 2019
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We report on an evaluation of tropospheric ozone and its precursor gases in three atmospheric chemistry versions as implemented in ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), referred to as IFS(CB05BASCOE), IFS(MOZART) and IFS(MOCAGE). This configuration of having various chemistry versions within IFS provides a quantification of uncertainties in CAMS trace gas products that are induced by chemistry modelling.
Marc Mallet, Pierre Nabat, Paquita Zuidema, Jens Redemann, Andrew Mark Sayer, Martin Stengel, Sebastian Schmidt, Sabrina Cochrane, Sharon Burton, Richard Ferrare, Kerry Meyer, Pablo Saide, Hiren Jethva, Omar Torres, Robert Wood, David Saint Martin, Romain Roehrig, Christina Hsu, and Paola Formenti
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 4963–4990, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4963-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4963-2019, 2019
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The model is able to represent LWP but not the LCF. AOD is consistent over the continent but also over ocean (ACAOD). Differences are observed in SSA due to the absence of internal mixing in ALADIN-Climate. A significant regional gradient of the forcing at TOA is observed. An intense positive forcing is simulated over Gabon. Results highlight the significant effect of enhanced moisture on BBA extinction. The surface dimming modifies the energy budget.
Rolf Sander, Andreas Baumgaertner, David Cabrera-Perez, Franziska Frank, Sergey Gromov, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Hartwig Harder, Vincent Huijnen, Patrick Jöckel, Vlassis A. Karydis, Kyle E. Niemeyer, Andrea Pozzer, Hella Riede, Martin G. Schultz, Domenico Taraborrelli, and Sebastian Tauer
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1365–1385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1365-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1365-2019, 2019
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We present the atmospheric chemistry box model CAABA/MECCA which
now includes a number of new features: skeletal mechanism
reduction, the MOM chemical mechanism for volatile organic
compounds, an option to include reactions from the Master
Chemical Mechanism (MCM) and other chemical mechanisms, updated
isotope tagging, improved and new photolysis modules, and the new
feature of coexisting multiple chemistry mechanisms.
CAABA/MECCA is a community model published under the GPL.
Anna Katinka Petersen, Guy P. Brasseur, Idir Bouarar, Johannes Flemming, Michael Gauss, Fei Jiang, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Richard Kranenburg, Bas Mijling, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Matthieu Pommier, Arjo Segers, Mikhail Sofiev, Renske Timmermans, Ronald van der A, Stacy Walters, Ying Xie, Jianming Xu, and Guangqiang Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1241–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1241-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1241-2019, 2019
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An operational multi-model forecasting system for air quality is providing daily forecasts of ozone, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter for 37 urban areas of China. The paper presents the evaluation of the different forecasts performed during the first year of operation.
Thomas Drugé, Pierre Nabat, Marc Mallet, and Samuel Somot
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3707–3731, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3707-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3707-2019, 2019
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Among the different aerosols affecting the Euro-Mediterranean region, ammonium and nitrate (A&N) aerosols are expected to have a growing impact on regional climate. In this study, these aerosols have been introduced in the prognostic aerosol scheme of the ALADIN-Climate regional model. Results show that since 2005 over Europe, A&N aerosol optical depth is higher than sulfate and organics and they are responsible for a cooling of about −0.2 °C over Europe during summer.
Antje Inness, Melanie Ades, Anna Agustí-Panareda, Jérôme Barré, Anna Benedictow, Anne-Marlene Blechschmidt, Juan Jose Dominguez, Richard Engelen, Henk Eskes, Johannes Flemming, Vincent Huijnen, Luke Jones, Zak Kipling, Sebastien Massart, Mark Parrington, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Miha Razinger, Samuel Remy, Michael Schulz, and Martin Suttie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3515–3556, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3515-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3515-2019, 2019
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This paper describes a new global dataset of atmospheric composition data for the years 2003-2016 that has been produced by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). It is called the CAMS reanalysis and provides information on aerosols and reactive gases. The CAMS reanalysis shows an improved performance compared to our previous atmospheric composition reanalyses; has smaller biases compared to independent O3, CO, NO2 and aerosol observations; and is more consistent in time.
Sauvik Santra, Shubha Verma, Koji Fujita, Indrajit Chakraborty, Olivier Boucher, Toshihiko Takemura, John F. Burkhart, Felix Matt, and Mukesh Sharma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2441–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2441-2019, 2019
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The present study provided information on specific glaciers over the Hindu Kush Himalayan region identified as being vulnerable to BC-induced impacts (affected by high BC-induced snow albedo reduction in addition to being sensitive to BC-induced impacts), thus impacting the downstream hydrology. The source-specific contribution to atmospheric BC aerosols by emission sources led to identifying the potential emission source, which was distinctive over south and north to 30° N.
Jeronimo Escribano, Alessio Bozzo, Philippe Dubuisson, Johannes Flemming, Robin J. Hogan, Laurent C.-Labonnote, and Olivier Boucher
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 805–827, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-805-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-805-2019, 2019
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Accurate shortwave radiance computations are becoming increasingly important for some applications in atmospheric composition. In this work we propose a benchmark protocol and dataset to asses the accuracy and computing runtime of radiance calculations of radiative transfer models. It is applied to four models, showing the potential of this benchmark to evaluate the model performance under a variety of atmospheric conditions, viewing geometries, aerosol loading, and optical properties.
Angela Benedetti, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Luke Jones, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Samuel Rémy, and Xiaoye Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 987–998, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-987-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-987-2019, 2019
Guy P. Brasseur, Ying Xie, Anna Katinka Petersen, Idir Bouarar, Johannes Flemming, Michael Gauss, Fei Jiang, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Richard Kranenburg, Bas Mijling, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Matthieu Pommier, Arjo Segers, Mikhail Sofiev, Renske Timmermans, Ronald van der A, Stacy Walters, Jianming Xu, and Guangqiang Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 33–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-33-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-33-2019, 2019
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An operational multi-model forecasting system for air quality provides daily forecasts of ozone, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter for 37 urban areas in China. The paper presents an intercomparison of the different forecasts performed during a specific period of time and highlights recurrent differences between the model output. Pathways to improve the forecasts by the multi-model system are suggested.
Samuel R. Hall, Kirk Ullmann, Michael J. Prather, Clare M. Flynn, Lee T. Murray, Arlene M. Fiore, Gustavo Correa, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jonathan Guth, Béatrice Josse, Johannes Flemming, Vincent Huijnen, N. Luke Abraham, and Alex T. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16809–16828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16809-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16809-2018, 2018
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Photolysis (J rates) initiates and drives atmospheric chemistry, and Js are perturbed by factors of 2 by clouds. The NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) Mission provides the first comprehensive observations on how clouds perturb Js through the remote Pacific and Atlantic basins. We compare these cloud-perturbation J statistics with those from nine global chemistry models. While basic patterns agree, there is a large spread across models, and all lack some basic features of the observations.
Laura E. Revell, Andrea Stenke, Fiona Tummon, Aryeh Feinberg, Eugene Rozanov, Thomas Peter, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Robyn Schofield, Kane Stone, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16155–16172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, 2018
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Global models such as those participating in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) consistently simulate biases in tropospheric ozone compared with observations. We performed an advanced statistical analysis with one of the CCMI models to understand the cause of the bias. We found that emissions of ozone precursor gases are the dominant driver of the bias, implying either that the emissions are too large, or that the way in which the model handles emissions needs to be improved.
Dimitris Akritidis, Eleni Katragkou, Prodromos Zanis, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Dimitris Melas, Johannes Flemming, Antje Inness, Hannah Clark, Matthieu Plu, and Henk Eskes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15515–15534, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15515-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15515-2018, 2018
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Analysis and evaluation of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global and regional forecast systems during a deep stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone transport event over Europe in January 2017. Radiosondes, satellite images, ozonesondes and aircraft measurements were used to investigate the folding of the tropopause at several European sites and the induced presence of dry and ozone-rich air in the troposphere.
Jan Eiof Jonson, Michael Schulz, Louisa Emmons, Johannes Flemming, Daven Henze, Kengo Sudo, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Meiyun Lin, Anna Benedictow, Brigitte Koffi, Frank Dentener, Terry Keating, Rigel Kivi, and Yanko Davila
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13655–13672, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13655-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13655-2018, 2018
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Focusing on Europe, this HTAP 2 study computes ozone in several global models when reducing anthropogenic emissions by 20 % in different world regions. The differences in model results are explored
by use of a novel stepwise approach combining a tracer, CO and ozone. For ozone the contributions from the rest of the world are larger than from Europe, with the largest contributions from North America and eastern Asia. Contributions do, however, depend on the choice of ozone metric.
Ben Kravitz, Philip J. Rasch, Hailong Wang, Alan Robock, Corey Gabriel, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Duoying Ji, Andy Jones, Andrew Lenton, John C. Moore, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Steven Phipps, Hauke Schmidt, Shingo Watanabe, Shuting Yang, and Jin-Ho Yoon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13097–13113, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13097-2018, 2018
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Marine cloud brightening has been proposed as a means of geoengineering/climate intervention, or deliberately altering the climate system to offset anthropogenic climate change. In idealized simulations that highlight contrasts between land and ocean, we find that the globe warms, including the ocean due to transport of heat from land. This study reinforces that no net energy input into the Earth system does not mean that temperature will necessarily remain unchanged.
Amanda C. Maycock, Katja Matthes, Susann Tegtmeier, Hauke Schmidt, Rémi Thiéblemont, Lon Hood, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, Daniel R. Marsh, Martine Michou, David Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Yousuke Yamashita, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11323–11343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, 2018
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The 11-year solar cycle is an important driver of climate variability. Changes in incoming solar ultraviolet radiation affect atmospheric ozone, which in turn influences atmospheric temperatures. Constraining the impact of the solar cycle on ozone is therefore important for understanding climate variability. This study examines the representation of the solar influence on ozone in numerical models used to simulate past and future climate. We highlight important differences among model datasets.
Blanca Ayarzagüena, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Ulrike Langematz, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Steven C. Hardiman, Patrick Jöckel, Andrew Klekociuk, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David A. Plummer, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11277–11287, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, 2018
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Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are natural major disruptions of the polar stratospheric circulation that also affect surface weather. In the literature there are conflicting claims as to whether SSWs will change in the future. The confusion comes from studies using different models and methods. Here we settle the question by analysing 12 models with a consistent methodology, to show that no robust changes in frequency and other features are expected over the 21st century.
Angela Benedetti, Jeffrey S. Reid, Peter Knippertz, John H. Marsham, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Samuel Rémy, Sara Basart, Olivier Boucher, Ian M. Brooks, Laurent Menut, Lucia Mona, Paolo Laj, Gelsomina Pappalardo, Alfred Wiedensohler, Alexander Baklanov, Malcolm Brooks, Peter R. Colarco, Emilio Cuevas, Arlindo da Silva, Jeronimo Escribano, Johannes Flemming, Nicolas Huneeus, Oriol Jorba, Stelios Kazadzis, Stefan Kinne, Thomas Popp, Patricia K. Quinn, Thomas T. Sekiyama, Taichu Tanaka, and Enric Terradellas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10615–10643, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10615-2018, 2018
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Numerical prediction of aerosol particle properties has become an important activity at many research and operational weather centers. This development is due to growing interest from a diverse set of stakeholders, such as air quality regulatory bodies, aviation authorities, solar energy plant managers, climate service providers, and health professionals. This paper describes the advances in the field and sets out requirements for observations for the sustainability of these activities.
Ciao-Kai Liang, J. Jason West, Raquel A. Silva, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Yanko Davila, Frank J. Dentener, Louisa Emmons, Johannes Flemming, Gerd Folberth, Daven Henze, Ulas Im, Jan Eiof Jonson, Terry J. Keating, Tom Kucsera, Allen Lenzen, Meiyun Lin, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Xiaohua Pan, Rokjin J. Park, R. Bradley Pierce, Takashi Sekiya, Kengo Sudo, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10497–10520, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10497-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10497-2018, 2018
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Emissions from one continent affect air quality and health elsewhere. Here we quantify the effects of intercontinental PM2.5 and ozone transport on human health using a new multi-model ensemble, evaluating the health effects of emissions from six world regions and three emission source sectors. Emissions from one region have significant health impacts outside of that source region; similarly, foreign emissions contribute significantly to air-pollution-related deaths in several world regions.
Marta G. Vivanco, Mark R. Theobald, Héctor García-Gómez, Juan Luis Garrido, Marje Prank, Wenche Aas, Mario Adani, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Camilla Andersson, Roberto Bellasio, Bertrand Bessagnet, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Jørgen Brandt, Gino Briganti, Andrea Cappelletti, Gabriele Curci, Jesper H. Christensen, Augustin Colette, Florian Couvidat, Cornelis Cuvelier, Massimo D'Isidoro, Johannes Flemming, Andrea Fraser, Camilla Geels, Kaj M. Hansen, Christian Hogrefe, Ulas Im, Oriol Jorba, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Astrid Manders, Mihaela Mircea, Noelia Otero, Maria-Teresa Pay, Luca Pozzoli, Efisio Solazzo, Svetlana Tsyro, Alper Unal, Peter Wind, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10199–10218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10199-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10199-2018, 2018
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European wet and dry atmospheric deposition of N and S estimated by 14 air quality models was found to vary substantially. An ensemble of models meeting acceptability criteria was used to estimate the exceedances of the critical loads for N in habitats within the Natura 2000 network, as well as their lower and upper limits. Scenarios with 20 % emission reductions in different regions of the world showed that European emissions are responsible for most of the N and S deposition in Europe.
Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, Frank J. Dentener, Yanko Davila, Louisa K. Emmons, Johannes Flemming, Gerd A. Folberth, Daven K. Henze, Jan E. Jonson, Terry J. Keating, Sudo Kengo, Meiyun Lin, Marianne Lund, Simone Tilmes, and Fiona M. O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8953–8978, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8953-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8953-2018, 2018
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A simple parameterisation was developed in this study to provide a rapid assessment of the impacts and uncertainties associated with future emission control strategies by predicting changes to surface ozone air quality and near-term climate forcing of ozone. Future emissions scenarios based on currently implemented legislation are shown to worsen surface ozone air quality and enhance near-term climate warming, with changes in methane becoming increasingly important in the future.
Ulas Im, Jesper Heile Christensen, Camilla Geels, Kaj Mantzius Hansen, Jørgen Brandt, Efisio Solazzo, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocio Baro, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Augustin Colette, Gabriele Curci, Aidan Farrow, Johannes Flemming, Andrea Fraser, Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Peng Liu, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Laura Palacios-Peña, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marje Prank, Rebecca Rose, Ranjeet Sokhi, Paolo Tuccella, Alper Unal, Marta G. Vivanco, Greg Yarwood, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8929–8952, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8929-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8929-2018, 2018
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We evaluate the impact of global and regional anthropogenic emission reductions on major air pollutant levels over Europe and North America, using a multi-model ensemble of regional chemistry and transport models. Results show that ozone levels are largely driven by long-range transport over both continents while other pollutants such as carbon monoxide or aerosols are mainly controlled by domestic sources. Use of multi-model ensembles can help to reduce the uncertainties in individual models.
Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Athanasios Tsikerdekis, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Angela Benedetti, Prodromos Zanis, Georgia Alexandri, Lucia Mona, Konstantinos A. Kourtidis, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8601–8620, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8601-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8601-2018, 2018
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In this work, the MACC reanalysis dust product is evaluated over Europe, Northern Africa and the Middle East using the EARLINET-optimized CALIOP/CALIPSO pure dust satellite-based product LIVAS (2007–2012). As dust plays a determinant role in processes related to weather and climate, human healt, and the economy, it is obvious that adequately simulating the amount of dust and its optical properties is essential. Our results could be used as a reference in future climate model evaluations.
Tao Tang, Drew Shindell, Bjørn H. Samset, Oliviér Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Jana Sillmann, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Timothy Andrews, Gregory Faluvegi, Dagmar Fläschner, Trond Iversen, Matthew Kasoar, Viatcheslav Kharin, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Dirk Olivié, Thomas Richardson, Camilla W. Stjern, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8439–8452, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8439-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8439-2018, 2018
Sandip S. Dhomse, Douglas Kinnison, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Ross J. Salawitch, Irene Cionni, Michaela I. Hegglin, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alex T. Archibald, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Peter Braesicke, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Stacey Frith, Steven C. Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, Rong-Ming Hu, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Oliver Kirner, Stefanie Kremser, Ulrike Langematz, Jared Lewis, Marion Marchand, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8409–8438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, 2018
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We analyse simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion by anthropogenic chlorine and bromine. The simulations from 20 models project that global column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2047 (uncertainty range 2042–2052). Return dates in other regions vary depending on factors related to climate change and importance of chlorine and bromine. Column ozone in the tropics may continue to decline.
Ulas Im, Jørgen Brandt, Camilla Geels, Kaj Mantzius Hansen, Jesper Heile Christensen, Mikael Skou Andersen, Efisio Solazzo, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocio Baro, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Augustin Colette, Gabriele Curci, Aidan Farrow, Johannes Flemming, Andrea Fraser, Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Ciao-Kai Liang, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marje Prank, Rebecca Rose, Ranjeet Sokhi, Paolo Tuccella, Alper Unal, Marta Garcia Vivanco, Jason West, Greg Yarwood, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5967–5989, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5967-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5967-2018, 2018
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The impacts of air pollution on human health and their costs in Europe and the United States for the year 2010 ared modeled by a multi-model ensemble. In Europe, the number of premature deaths is calculated to be 414 000, while in the US it is estimated to be 160 000. Health impacts estimated by individual models can vary up to a factor of 3. Results show that the domestic emissions have the largest impact on premature deaths, compared to foreign sources.
Francesca Di Giuseppe, Samuel Rémy, Florian Pappenberger, and Fredrik Wetterhall
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5359–5370, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5359-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5359-2018, 2018
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Fire emissions injected into the atmosphere are crucial input for air quality models. This information is available globally using fire radiative power (FRP) observations, converted into smoke constituents. In case of a missing observation after ignition, a practical choice is to assume persistence. As an improvement we propose the use of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) to predict the FRP evolution. We show that the FWI is able to capture weather-related changes in fire activity well.
Christian Hogrefe, Peng Liu, George Pouliot, Rohit Mathur, Shawn Roselle, Johannes Flemming, Meiyun Lin, and Rokjin J. Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3839–3864, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3839-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3839-2018, 2018
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This study quantifies the impacts of different representations of background ozone in state-of-the-science large-scale models on surface and aloft ozone burdens simulated by the CMAQ regional model over the United States. It also compares both the CMAQ simulations and the driving large-scale models to surface and upper air observations.
Christoph Kleinschmitt, Olivier Boucher, and Ulrich Platt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2769–2786, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2769-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2769-2018, 2018
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We use a state-of-the-art stratospheric aerosol model to study geoengineering through stratospheric sulfur injections. We find that the efficiency may decrease more drastically for larger injections than previously estimated and that injections at higher altitude are not more effective. This study may provide additional evidence that this proposed geoengineering technique is still more complicated, probably less effective, and may implicate stronger side effects than initially thought.
Stelios Kazadzis, Dimitra Founda, Basil E. Psiloglou, Harry Kambezidis, Nickolaos Mihalopoulos, Arturo Sanchez-Lorenzo, Charikleia Meleti, Panagiotis I. Raptis, Fragiskos Pierros, and Pierre Nabat
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2395–2411, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2395-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2395-2018, 2018
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The National Observatory of Athens has been collecting solar radiation, sunshine duration, and cloud and visibility data/observations since the beginning of the 20th century. In this work we present surface solar radiation data since 1953 and reconstructed data since 1900. We have attempted to show and discuss the long-term changes in solar surface radiation over Athens, Greece, using these unique datasets.
Roland Séférian, Sunghye Baek, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Bertrand Decharme, David Saint-Martin, and Romain Roehrig
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 321–338, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-321-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-321-2018, 2018
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This paper presents a new interactive scheme for ocean surface albedo suited for the current generation of Earth system models. This scheme computes the ocean surface albedo accounting for the spectral dependence (across a range of wavelengths between 200 and 4000 nm), the characteristics of incident solar radiation (direct of diffuse), the effects of surface winds, chlorophyll content and whitecaps in addition to the canonical solar zenith angle dependence.
Camilla W. Stjern, Helene Muri, Lars Ahlm, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Duoying Ji, Andy Jones, Jim Haywood, Ben Kravitz, Andrew Lenton, John C. Moore, Ulrike Niemeier, Steven J. Phipps, Hauke Schmidt, Shingo Watanabe, and Jón Egill Kristjánsson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 621–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-621-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-621-2018, 2018
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Marine cloud brightening (MCB) has been proposed to help limit global warming. We present here the first multi-model assessment of idealized MCB simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. While all models predict a global cooling as intended, there is considerable spread between the models both in terms of radiative forcing and the climate response, largely linked to the substantial differences in the models' representation of clouds.
Albert Ansmann, Franziska Rittmeister, Ronny Engelmann, Sara Basart, Oriol Jorba, Christos Spyrou, Samuel Remy, Annett Skupin, Holger Baars, Patric Seifert, Fabian Senf, and Thomas Kanitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14987–15006, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14987-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14987-2017, 2017
Francois Tuzet, Marie Dumont, Matthieu Lafaysse, Ghislain Picard, Laurent Arnaud, Didier Voisin, Yves Lejeune, Luc Charrois, Pierre Nabat, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 11, 2633–2653, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2633-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2633-2017, 2017
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Light-absorbing impurities deposited on snow, such as soot or dust, strongly modify its evolution. We implemented impurity deposition and evolution in a detailed snowpack model, thereby expanding the reach of such models into addressing the subtle interplays between snow physics and impurities' optical properties. Model results were evaluated based on innovative field observations at an Alpine site. This allows future investigations in the fields of climate, hydrology and avalanche prediction.
Bethan White, Edward Gryspeerdt, Philip Stier, Hugh Morrison, Gregory Thompson, and Zak Kipling
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12145–12175, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12145-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12145-2017, 2017
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Aerosols influence cloud and precipitation by modifying cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNCs). We simulate three different types of convective cloud using two different cloud microphysics parameterisations. The simulated cloud and precipitation depends much more strongly on the choice of microphysics scheme than on CDNC. The uncertainty differs between types of convection. Our results highlight a large uncertainty in cloud and precipitation responses to aerosol in current models.
Christoph Kleinschmitt, Olivier Boucher, Slimane Bekki, François Lott, and Ulrich Platt
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3359–3378, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3359-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3359-2017, 2017
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Stratospheric aerosols play an important role in the climate system by affecting the Earth's radiative budget. In this article we present the newly developed LMDZ-S3A model and assess its performance against observations in periods of low and high aerosol loading. The model may serve as a tool to study the climate impacts of volcanic eruptions, as well as the deliberate injection of aerosols into the stratosphere, which has been proposed as a method of geoengineering to abate global warming.
Jerónimo Escribano, Olivier Boucher, Frédéric Chevallier, and Nicolás Huneeus
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7111–7126, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7111-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7111-2017, 2017
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Top-down estimates of mineral dust flux usually rely on a single observational dataset whose observational errors propagate onto the emission estimates. Aerosol optical depth from five satellites are assimilated one by one into a source inversion system over northern Africa. We find a relatively large dispersion in flux estimates among the five experiments, which can likely be attributed to differences in the assimilated observational datasets and their associated error statistics.
Min Huang, Gregory R. Carmichael, R. Bradley Pierce, Duseong S. Jo, Rokjin J. Park, Johannes Flemming, Louisa K. Emmons, Kevin W. Bowman, Daven K. Henze, Yanko Davila, Kengo Sudo, Jan Eiof Jonson, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Frank J. Dentener, Terry J. Keating, Hilke Oetjen, and Vivienne H. Payne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5721–5750, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5721-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5721-2017, 2017
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In support of the HTAP phase 2 experiment, we conducted a number of regional-scale Sulfur Transport and dEposition Model base and sensitivity simulations over North America during May–June 2010. The STEM chemical boundary conditions were downscaled from three (GEOS-Chem, RAQMS, and ECMWF C-IFS) global chemical transport models' simulations. Analyses were performed on large spatial–temporal scales relative to HTAP1 and also on subcontinental and event scales including the use of satellite data.
Marie Dumont, Laurent Arnaud, Ghislain Picard, Quentin Libois, Yves Lejeune, Pierre Nabat, Didier Voisin, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 11, 1091–1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1091-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1091-2017, 2017
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Snow spectral albedo in the visible/near-infrared range has been continuously measured during a winter season at Col de Porte alpine site (French Alps; 45.30° N, 5.77°E; 1325 m a.s.l.). This study highlights that the variations of spectral albedo can be successfully explained by variations of the following snow surface variables: snow-specific surface area, effective light-absorbing impurities content, presence of liquid water and slope.
Samuel Rémy, Andreas Veira, Ronan Paugam, Mikhail Sofiev, Johannes W. Kaiser, Franco Marenco, Sharon P. Burton, Angela Benedetti, Richard J. Engelen, Richard Ferrare, and Jonathan W. Hair
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2921–2942, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2921-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2921-2017, 2017
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Biomass burning emission injection heights are an important source of uncertainty in global climate and atmospheric composition modelling. This work provides a global daily data set of injection heights computed by two very different algorithms, which coherently complete a global biomass burning emissions database. The two data sets were compared and validated against observations, and their use was found to improve forecasts of carbonaceous aerosols in two case studies.
Olaf Morgenstern, Michaela I. Hegglin, Eugene Rozanov, Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando R. Garcia, Steven C. Hardiman, Larry W. Horowitz, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Michael E. Manyin, Marion Marchand, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 639–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, 2017
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We present a review of the make-up of 20 models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). In comparison to earlier such activities, most of these models comprise a whole-atmosphere chemistry, and several of them include an interactive ocean module. This makes them suitable for studying the interactions of tropospheric air quality, stratospheric ozone, and climate. The paper lays the foundation for other studies using the CCMI simulations for scientific analysis.
William J. Collins, Jean-François Lamarque, Michael Schulz, Olivier Boucher, Veronika Eyring, Michaela I. Hegglin, Amanda Maycock, Gunnar Myhre, Michael Prather, Drew Shindell, and Steven J. Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 585–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, 2017
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We have designed a set of climate model experiments called the Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). These are designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases in the climate models that are used to simulate past and future climate. We hope that many climate modelling centres will choose to run these experiments to help understand the contribution of aerosols and chemistry to climate change.
Johannes Flemming, Angela Benedetti, Antje Inness, Richard J. Engelen, Luke Jones, Vincent Huijnen, Samuel Remy, Mark Parrington, Martin Suttie, Alessio Bozzo, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Dimitris Akritidis, and Eleni Katragkou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1945–1983, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1945-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1945-2017, 2017
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We combine satellite observations of carbon monoxide, ozone and aerosols with the results from a model using a technique called data assimilation. The generated global data set (CAMS interim reanalysis) covers the period 2003–2015 at a resolution of about 110 km. The CAMS interim reanalysis can be used to study global air pollution and climate forcing of aerosol and stratospheric ozone. It has been produced by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (http://atmosphere. copernicus.eu).
Thomas Gasser, Philippe Ciais, Olivier Boucher, Yann Quilcaille, Maxime Tortora, Laurent Bopp, and Didier Hauglustaine
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 271–319, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-271-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-271-2017, 2017
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Simple models of the Earth system are useful, especially because of their high computing efficiency. This work describes the OSCAR model: a new simple Earth system model calibrated on state-of-the-art complex models. It will add to the pool of the few simple models currently used by the community, and it will therefore improve the robustness of future studies. Its source code is available upon request.
Zak Kipling, Philip Stier, Laurent Labbouz, and Till Wagner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 327–342, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-327-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-327-2017, 2017
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We present the first evaluation of the convective cloud field model (CCFM) in the context of a global climate model. CCFM attempts to address some of the shortcomings of commonly used representations of convection, in particular allowing for physically based aerosol effects on different types of convective cloud. We show that the model performs well overall in the context of the climate model and is thus well placed to study aerosol–convection–climate interactions at the global scale.
Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Ulas Im, Efisio Solazzo, Roberto Bianconi, Alba Badia, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocío Baró, Roberto Bellasio, Dominik Brunner, Charles Chemel, Gabriele Curci, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Johannes Flemming, Renate Forkel, Lea Giordano, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Marcus Hirtl, Oriol Jorba, Astrid Manders-Groot, Lucy Neal, Juan L. Pérez, Guidio Pirovano, Roberto San Jose, Nicholas Savage, Wolfram Schroder, Ranjeet S. Sokhi, Dimiter Syrakov, Paolo Tuccella, Johannes Werhahn, Ralf Wolke, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15629–15652, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15629-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15629-2016, 2016
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Four ensemble methods are applied to two annual AQMEII datasets and their performance is compared for O3, NO2 and PM10. The goal of the study is to quantify to what extent we can extract predictable signals from an ensemble with superior skill at each station over the single models and the ensemble mean. The promotion of the right amount of accuracy and diversity within the ensemble results in an average additional skill of up to 31 % compared to using the full ensemble in an unconditional way.
Fernando Chouza, Oliver Reitebuch, Angela Benedetti, and Bernadett Weinzierl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 11581–11600, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11581-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11581-2016, 2016
Duncan Watson-Parris, Nick Schutgens, Nicholas Cook, Zak Kipling, Philip Kershaw, Edward Gryspeerdt, Bryan Lawrence, and Philip Stier
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3093–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3093-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3093-2016, 2016
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In this paper we describe CIS, a new command line tool for the easy visualization, analysis and comparison of a wide variety of gridded and ungridded data sets used in Earth sciences. Users can now use a single tool to not only view plots of satellite, aircraft, station or model data, but also bring them onto the same spatio-temporal sampling. This allows robust, quantitative comparisons to be made easily. CIS is an open-source project and welcomes input from the community.
Vincent Huijnen, Johannes Flemming, Simon Chabrillat, Quentin Errera, Yves Christophe, Anne-Marlene Blechschmidt, Andreas Richter, and Henk Eskes
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3071–3091, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3071-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3071-2016, 2016
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We present a model description and benchmark evaluation of an extension of the tropospheric chemistry module in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) with stratospheric chemistry. The stratospheric chemistry originates from the one used in the Belgian Assimilation System for Chemical ObsErvations (BASCOE), and is here combined with the modified CB05 chemistry module for the troposphere as currently used operationally in the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS).
Jianglong Zhang, Jeffrey S. Reid, Matthew Christensen, and Angela Benedetti
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6475–6494, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6475-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6475-2016, 2016
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Through analyzing a smoke aerosol event over the Midwestern USA, the potential impacts of aerosol particles on model/weather-station-forecasted surface temperatures are studied, and for the first time, smoke-aerosol-induced surface cooling is investigated as a function of observed aerosol properties and multiple operational models over a large network of ground stations. The potential issues of incorporating aerosol models into weather models for forecasting surface temperatures are explored.
N. Huneeus, S. Basart, S. Fiedler, J.-J. Morcrette, A. Benedetti, J. Mulcahy, E. Terradellas, C. Pérez García-Pando, G. Pejanovic, S. Nickovic, P. Arsenovic, M. Schulz, E. Cuevas, J. M. Baldasano, J. Pey, S. Remy, and B. Cvetkovic
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4967–4986, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4967-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4967-2016, 2016
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Five dust models are evaluated regarding their performance in predicting an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe (NE). Models predict the onset and evolution of the event for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences in lead times for each model. The models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards NE. This is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical dust distribution and horizontal wind.
Shipeng Zhang, Minghuai Wang, Steven J. Ghan, Aijun Ding, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, David Neubauer, Ulrike Lohmann, Sylvaine Ferrachat, Toshihiko Takeamura, Andrew Gettelman, Hugh Morrison, Yunha Lee, Drew T. Shindell, Daniel G. Partridge, Philip Stier, Zak Kipling, and Congbin Fu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2765–2783, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2765-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2765-2016, 2016
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The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in several climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes. Regimes with strong large-scale ascent are shown to be as important as stratocumulus regimes in studying AIE. AIE over regions with high monthly large-scale surface precipitation rate contributes the most to the total aerosol indirect forcing. These results point to the need to reduce the uncertainty in AIE in different dynamical regimes.
Zak Kipling, Philip Stier, Colin E. Johnson, Graham W. Mann, Nicolas Bellouin, Susanne E. Bauer, Tommi Bergman, Mian Chin, Thomas Diehl, Steven J. Ghan, Trond Iversen, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Xiaohong Liu, Gan Luo, Twan van Noije, Kirsty J. Pringle, Knut von Salzen, Michael Schulz, Øyvind Seland, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Kai Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2221–2241, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2221-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2221-2016, 2016
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The vertical distribution of atmospheric aerosol is an important factor in its effects on climate. In this study we use a sophisticated model of the many interacting processes affecting aerosol in the atmosphere to show that the vertical distribution is typically dominated by only a few of these processes. Constraining these physical processes may help to reduce the large differences between models. However, the important processes are not always the same for different types of aerosol.
Franco Marenco, Ben Johnson, Justin M. Langridge, Jane Mulcahy, Angela Benedetti, Samuel Remy, Luke Jones, Kate Szpek, Jim Haywood, Karla Longo, and Paulo Artaxo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2155–2174, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2155-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2155-2016, 2016
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A widespread and persistent smoke layer was observed in the Amazon
region during the biomass burning season, spanning a distance of 2200 km
and a period of 14 days. The larger smoke content was typically found
in elevated layers, from 1–1.5 km to 4–6 km.
Measurements have been compared to model predictions, and the latter
were able to reproduce the general features of the smoke layer, but
with some differences which are analysed and described in the paper.
M. Mallet, F. Dulac, P. Formenti, P. Nabat, J. Sciare, G. Roberts, J. Pelon, G. Ancellet, D. Tanré, F. Parol, C. Denjean, G. Brogniez, A. di Sarra, L. Alados-Arboledas, J. Arndt, F. Auriol, L. Blarel, T. Bourrianne, P. Chazette, S. Chevaillier, M. Claeys, B. D'Anna, Y. Derimian, K. Desboeufs, T. Di Iorio, J.-F. Doussin, P. Durand, A. Féron, E. Freney, C. Gaimoz, P. Goloub, J. L. Gómez-Amo, M. J. Granados-Muñoz, N. Grand, E. Hamonou, I. Jankowiak, M. Jeannot, J.-F. Léon, M. Maillé, S. Mailler, D. Meloni, L. Menut, G. Momboisse, J. Nicolas, T. Podvin, V. Pont, G. Rea, J.-B. Renard, L. Roblou, K. Schepanski, A. Schwarzenboeck, K. Sellegri, M. Sicard, F. Solmon, S. Somot, B Torres, J. Totems, S. Triquet, N. Verdier, C. Verwaerde, F. Waquet, J. Wenger, and P. Zapf
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 455–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-455-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-455-2016, 2016
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The aim of this article is to present an experimental campaign over the Mediterranean focused on aerosol-radiation measurements and modeling. Results indicate an important atmospheric loading associated with a moderate absorbing ability of mineral dust. Observations suggest a complex vertical structure and size distributions characterized by large aerosols within dust plumes. The radiative effect is highly variable, with negative forcing over the Mediterranean and positive over northern Africa.
A. Wagner, A.-M. Blechschmidt, I. Bouarar, E.-G. Brunke, C. Clerbaux, M. Cupeiro, P. Cristofanelli, H. Eskes, J. Flemming, H. Flentje, M. George, S. Gilge, A. Hilboll, A. Inness, J. Kapsomenakis, A. Richter, L. Ries, W. Spangl, O. Stein, R. Weller, and C. Zerefos
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 14005–14030, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-14005-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-14005-2015, 2015
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The Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate project (MACC) operationally produces global analyses and forecasts of reactive gases and aerosol fields. We have investigated the ability of the model to simulate concentrations of reactive gases (carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide and ozone) between 2009 and 2012. The model reproduced reactive gas concentrations with consistent quality, however, with a seasonally dependent bias compared to surface and satellite observations.
G. Roberts, M. J. Wooster, W. Xu, P. H. Freeborn, J.-J. Morcrette, L. Jones, A. Benedetti, H. Jiangping, D. Fisher, and J. W. Kaiser
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13241–13267, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13241-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13241-2015, 2015
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Characterising the dynamics of wildfires at high temporal resolution is best achieved using observations from geostationary satellite sensors. The SEVIRI Fire Radiative Power (FRP) products have been developed using such imagery at up to 15-minute temporal frequency. These data are used to estimate wildfire fuel consumption and to the characterise smoke emissions from the 2007 Peloponnese "mega fires" within an atmospheric transport model.
S. Rémy, A. Benedetti, A. Bozzo, T. Haiden, L. Jones, M. Razinger, J. Flemming, R. J. Engelen, V. H. Peuch, and J. N. Thepaut
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12909–12933, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12909-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12909-2015, 2015
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In this paper we report on the feedbacks between dust and boundary layer meteorology during a dust storm over Egypt and Libya in April 2012, using an atmospheric composition forecasting system. Dust was found to act on atmospheric stability, leading to an increase (night) or a decrease (day) in dust production. Horizontal gradients of temperature were modified by the radiative impact of the dust layer, leading to changes in wind patterns at the edge of the storm due to the thermal wind effect.
H. Eskes, V. Huijnen, A. Arola, A. Benedictow, A.-M. Blechschmidt, E. Botek, O. Boucher, I. Bouarar, S. Chabrillat, E. Cuevas, R. Engelen, H. Flentje, A. Gaudel, J. Griesfeller, L. Jones, J. Kapsomenakis, E. Katragkou, S. Kinne, B. Langerock, M. Razinger, A. Richter, M. Schultz, M. Schulz, N. Sudarchikova, V. Thouret, M. Vrekoussis, A. Wagner, and C. Zerefos
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3523–3543, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3523-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3523-2015, 2015
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The MACC project is preparing the operational atmosphere service of the European Copernicus Programme, and uses data assimilation to combine atmospheric models with available observations. Our paper provides an overview of the aerosol and trace gas validation activity of MACC. Topics are the validation requirements, the measurement data, the assimilation systems, the upgrade procedure, operational aspects and the scoring methods. A summary is provided of recent results, including special events.
B. Kravitz, A. Robock, S. Tilmes, O. Boucher, J. M. English, P. J. Irvine, A. Jones, M. G. Lawrence, M. MacCracken, H. Muri, J. C. Moore, U. Niemeier, S. J. Phipps, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, H. Wang, and S. Watanabe
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3379–3392, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3379-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3379-2015, 2015
A. Stohl, B. Aamaas, M. Amann, L. H. Baker, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, O. Boucher, R. Cherian, W. Collins, N. Daskalakis, M. Dusinska, S. Eckhardt, J. S. Fuglestvedt, M. Harju, C. Heyes, Ø. Hodnebrog, J. Hao, U. Im, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, K. S. Law, M. T. Lund, R. Maas, C. R. MacIntosh, G. Myhre, S. Myriokefalitakis, D. Olivié, J. Quaas, B. Quennehen, J.-C. Raut, S. T. Rumbold, B. H. Samset, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, K. P. Shine, R. B. Skeie, S. Wang, K. E. Yttri, and T. Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10529–10566, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015, 2015
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This paper presents a summary of the findings of the ECLIPSE EU project. The project has investigated the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived climate pollutants (especially methane, ozone, aerosols) and has designed a global mitigation strategy that maximizes co-benefits between air quality and climate policy. Transient climate model simulations allowed quantifying the impacts on temperature (e.g., reduction in global warming by 0.22K for the decade 2041-2050) and precipitation.
V. Marécal, V.-H. Peuch, C. Andersson, S. Andersson, J. Arteta, M. Beekmann, A. Benedictow, R. Bergström, B. Bessagnet, A. Cansado, F. Chéroux, A. Colette, A. Coman, R. L. Curier, H. A. C. Denier van der Gon, A. Drouin, H. Elbern, E. Emili, R. J. Engelen, H. J. Eskes, G. Foret, E. Friese, M. Gauss, C. Giannaros, J. Guth, M. Joly, E. Jaumouillé, B. Josse, N. Kadygrov, J. W. Kaiser, K. Krajsek, J. Kuenen, U. Kumar, N. Liora, E. Lopez, L. Malherbe, I. Martinez, D. Melas, F. Meleux, L. Menut, P. Moinat, T. Morales, J. Parmentier, A. Piacentini, M. Plu, A. Poupkou, S. Queguiner, L. Robertson, L. Rouïl, M. Schaap, A. Segers, M. Sofiev, L. Tarasson, M. Thomas, R. Timmermans, Á. Valdebenito, P. van Velthoven, R. van Versendaal, J. Vira, and A. Ung
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2777–2813, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2777-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2777-2015, 2015
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This paper describes the air quality forecasting system over Europe put in place in the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate projects. It provides daily and 4-day forecasts and analyses for the previous day for major gas and particulate pollutants and their main precursors. These products are based on a multi-model approach using seven state-of-the-art models developed in Europe. An evaluation of the performance of the system is discussed in the paper.
V. N. Aswathy, O. Boucher, M. Quaas, U. Niemeier, H. Muri, J. Mülmenstädt, and J. Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9593–9610, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9593-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9593-2015, 2015
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Simulations conducted in the GeoMIP and IMPLICC model intercomparison studies for climate engineering by stratospheric sulfate injection and marine cloud brightening via sea salt are analysed and compared to the reference scenario RCP4.5. The focus is on extremes in surface temperature and precipitation. It is found that the extreme changes mostly follow the mean changes and that extremes are also in general well mitigated, except for in polar regions.
A. Inness, A. Benedetti, J. Flemming, V. Huijnen, J. W. Kaiser, M. Parrington, and S. Remy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9083–9097, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9083-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9083-2015, 2015
E. Katragkou, P. Zanis, A. Tsikerdekis, J. Kapsomenakis, D. Melas, H. Eskes, J. Flemming, V. Huijnen, A. Inness, M. G. Schultz, O. Stein, and C. S. Zerefos
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2299–2314, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2299-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2299-2015, 2015
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This work is an extended evaluation of near-surface ozone as part of the global reanalysis of atmospheric composition, produced within the European-funded project MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate). It includes an evaluation over the period 2003-2012 and provides an overall assessment of the modelling system performance with respect to near surface ozone for specific European subregions.
M. Sofiev, U. Berger, M. Prank, J. Vira, J. Arteta, J. Belmonte, K.-C. Bergmann, F. Chéroux, H. Elbern, E. Friese, C. Galan, R. Gehrig, D. Khvorostyanov, R. Kranenburg, U. Kumar, V. Marécal, F. Meleux, L. Menut, A.-M. Pessi, L. Robertson, O. Ritenberga, V. Rodinkova, A. Saarto, A. Segers, E. Severova, I. Sauliene, P. Siljamo, B. M. Steensen, E. Teinemaa, M. Thibaudon, and V.-H. Peuch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8115–8130, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8115-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8115-2015, 2015
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The paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment for forecasting the atmospheric dispersion of birch pollen in Europe. The study included 7 models of MACC-ENS tested over the season of 2010 and applied for 2013 in forecasting and reanalysis modes. The results were compared with observations in 11 countries, members of European Aeroallergen Network. The models successfully reproduced the timing of the unusually late season of 2013 but had more difficulties with absolute concentration.
E. Gryspeerdt, P. Stier, B. A. White, and Z. Kipling
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7557–7570, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7557-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7557-2015, 2015
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Wet scavenging generates differences between the aerosol properties in clear-sky scenes (observed by satellites) and cloudy scenes, leading to different
aerosol-precipitation relationships in satellite data and global models. Convective systems usually draw in air from clear-sky regions, but global models have difficulty separating this aerosol from the aerosol in cloudy scenes within a model gridbox. This may prevent models from reproducing the observed aerosol-precipitation relationships.
L. K. Emmons, S. R. Arnold, S. A. Monks, V. Huijnen, S. Tilmes, K. S. Law, J. L. Thomas, J.-C. Raut, I. Bouarar, S. Turquety, Y. Long, B. Duncan, S. Steenrod, S. Strode, J. Flemming, J. Mao, J. Langner, A. M. Thompson, D. Tarasick, E. C. Apel, D. R. Blake, R. C. Cohen, J. Dibb, G. S. Diskin, A. Fried, S. R. Hall, L. G. Huey, A. J. Weinheimer, A. Wisthaler, T. Mikoviny, J. Nowak, J. Peischl, J. M. Roberts, T. Ryerson, C. Warneke, and D. Helmig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6721–6744, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6721-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6721-2015, 2015
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Eleven 3-D tropospheric chemistry models have been compared and evaluated with observations in the Arctic during the International Polar Year (IPY 2008). Large differences are seen among the models, particularly related to the model chemistry of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and reactive nitrogen (NOx, PAN, HNO3) partitioning. Consistency among the models in the underestimation of CO, ethane and propane indicates the emission inventory is too low for these compounds.
R. Wang, Y. Balkanski, O. Boucher, L. Bopp, A. Chappell, P. Ciais, D. Hauglustaine, J. Peñuelas, and S. Tao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6247–6270, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6247-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6247-2015, 2015
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This study makes a first attempt to estimate the temporal trend of Fe emissions from anthropogenic and natural combustion sources from 1960 to 2007 and the emissions of Fe from mineral dust based on a recent mineralogical database. The new emission inventory is introduced into a global aerosol model. The simulated total Fe and soluble Fe concentrations in surface air as well as the deposition of total Fe are evaluated by observations over major continental and oceanic regions globally.
S. R. Arnold, L. K. Emmons, S. A. Monks, K. S. Law, D. A. Ridley, S. Turquety, S. Tilmes, J. L. Thomas, I. Bouarar, J. Flemming, V. Huijnen, J. Mao, B. N. Duncan, S. Steenrod, Y. Yoshida, J. Langner, and Y. Long
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6047–6068, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6047-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6047-2015, 2015
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The extent to which forest fires produce the air pollutant and greenhouse gas ozone (O3) in the atmosphere at high latitudes in not well understood. We have compared how fire emissions produce O3 and its precursors in several models of atmospheric chemistry. We find enhancements in O3 in air dominated by fires in all models, which increase on average as fire emissions age. We also find that in situ O3 production in the Arctic is sensitive to details of organic chemistry and vertical lifting.
M. Bocquet, H. Elbern, H. Eskes, M. Hirtl, R. Žabkar, G. R. Carmichael, J. Flemming, A. Inness, M. Pagowski, J. L. Pérez Camaño, P. E. Saide, R. San Jose, M. Sofiev, J. Vira, A. Baklanov, C. Carnevale, G. Grell, and C. Seigneur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5325–5358, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5325-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5325-2015, 2015
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Data assimilation is used in atmospheric chemistry models to improve air quality forecasts, construct re-analyses of concentrations, and perform inverse modeling. Coupled chemistry meteorology models (CCMM) are atmospheric chemistry models that simulate meteorological processes and chemical transformations jointly. We review here the current status of data assimilation in atmospheric chemistry models, with a particular focus on future prospects for data assimilation in CCMM.
A. Inness, A.-M. Blechschmidt, I. Bouarar, S. Chabrillat, M. Crepulja, R. J. Engelen, H. Eskes, J. Flemming, A. Gaudel, F. Hendrick, V. Huijnen, L. Jones, J. Kapsomenakis, E. Katragkou, A. Keppens, B. Langerock, M. de Mazière, D. Melas, M. Parrington, V. H. Peuch, M. Razinger, A. Richter, M. G. Schultz, M. Suttie, V. Thouret, M. Vrekoussis, A. Wagner, and C. Zerefos
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5275–5303, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5275-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5275-2015, 2015
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The paper presents results from data assimilation studies with the new Composition-IFS model developed in the MACC project. This system was used in MACC to produce daily analyses and 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition and is now run daily in the EU’s Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service. The paper looks at the quality of the CO, O3 and NO2 analysis fields obtained with this system, comparing them against observations, a control run and an older version of the model.
E. Cuevas, C. Camino, A. Benedetti, S. Basart, E. Terradellas, J. M. Baldasano, J. J. Morcrette, B. Marticorena, P. Goloub, A. Mortier, A. Berjón, Y. Hernández, M. Gil-Ojeda, and M. Schulz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3991–4024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3991-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3991-2015, 2015
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Atmospheric mineral dust from a MACC-II short reanalysis (2007-2008) has been evaluated over northern Africa and the Middle East using satellite aerosol products, AERONET data, in situ PM10 concentrations, and extinction vertical profiles. The MACC-II AOD spatial and temporal variability shows good agreement with satellite sensors and AERONET. We find a good agreement in averaged extinction vertical profiles between MACC-II and lidars. MACC correctly reproduces daily to interannual PM10.
J. Flemming, V. Huijnen, J. Arteta, P. Bechtold, A. Beljaars, A.-M. Blechschmidt, M. Diamantakis, R. J. Engelen, A. Gaudel, A. Inness, L. Jones, B. Josse, E. Katragkou, V. Marecal, V.-H. Peuch, A. Richter, M. G. Schultz, O. Stein, and A. Tsikerdekis
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 975–1003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-975-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-975-2015, 2015
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We describe modules for atmospheric chemistry, wet and dry deposition and lightning NO production, which have been newly introduced in ECMWF's weather forecasting model. With that model, we want to forecast global air pollution as part of the European Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service. We show that the new model results compare as well or better with in situ and satellite observations of ozone, CO, NO2, SO2 and formaldehyde as the previous model.
S. A. Monks, S. R. Arnold, L. K. Emmons, K. S. Law, S. Turquety, B. N. Duncan, J. Flemming, V. Huijnen, S. Tilmes, J. Langner, J. Mao, Y. Long, J. L. Thomas, S. D. Steenrod, J. C. Raut, C. Wilson, M. P. Chipperfield, G. S. Diskin, A. Weinheimer, H. Schlager, and G. Ancellet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3575–3603, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3575-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3575-2015, 2015
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Multi-model simulations of Arctic CO, O3 and OH are evaluated using observations. Models show highly variable concentrations but the relative importance of emission regions and types is robust across the models, demonstrating the importance of biomass burning as a source. Idealised tracer experiments suggest that some of the model spread is due to variations in simulated transport from Europe in winter and from Asia throughout the year.
P. Nabat, S. Somot, M. Mallet, M. Michou, F. Sevault, F. Driouech, D. Meloni, A. di Sarra, C. Di Biagio, P. Formenti, M. Sicard, J.-F. Léon, and M.-N. Bouin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3303–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3303-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3303-2015, 2015
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This paper uses an original approach based on a coupled regional aerosol--atmosphere--ocean model to study the dust radiative effects over the Mediterranean in summer 2012. After an evaluation of the prognostic aerosol scheme, the dust aerosol daily variability is shown to improve the simulated surface radiation and temperature at the daily scale. It has also a significant impact on the summer average, thus highlighting the importance of a relevant representation of aerosols in climate models.
M. Michou, P. Nabat, and D. Saint-Martin
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 501–531, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-501-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-501-2015, 2015
K. Lefever, R. van der A, F. Baier, Y. Christophe, Q. Errera, H. Eskes, J. Flemming, A. Inness, L. Jones, J.-C. Lambert, B. Langerock, M. G. Schultz, O. Stein, A. Wagner, and S. Chabrillat
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2269–2293, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2269-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2269-2015, 2015
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We validate and discuss the analyses of stratospheric ozone delivered in near-real time between 2009 and 2012 by four different data assimilation systems: IFS-MOZART, BASCOE, SACADA and TM3DAM. It is shown that the characteristics of the assimilation systems are much less important than those of the assimilated data sets. A correct representation of the vertical distribution of ozone requires satellite observations which are well resolved vertically and extend into the lowermost stratosphere.
W. R. Sessions, J. S. Reid, A. Benedetti, P. R. Colarco, A. da Silva, S. Lu, T. Sekiyama, T. Y. Tanaka, J. M. Baldasano, S. Basart, M. E. Brooks, T. F. Eck, M. Iredell, J. A. Hansen, O. C. Jorba, H.-M. H. Juang, P. Lynch, J.-J. Morcrette, S. Moorthi, J. Mulcahy, Y. Pradhan, M. Razinger, C. B. Sampson, J. Wang, and D. L. Westphal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 335–362, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-335-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-335-2015, 2015
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M. C. Wyant, C. S. Bretherton, R. Wood, G. R. Carmichael, A. Clarke, J. Fast, R. George, W. I. Gustafson Jr., C. Hannay, A. Lauer, Y. Lin, J.-J. Morcrette, J. Mulcahy, P. E. Saide, S. N. Spak, and Q. Yang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 153–172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-153-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-153-2015, 2015
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Simulations from a group of GCMs, forecast models, and regional models are compared with aircraft and ship observations of the marine boundary layer (MBL) in the southeast Pacific region during the VOCALS-REx field campaign of October-November 2008. Gradients of cloud, aerosol, and chemical properties in and above the MBL extending from the Peruvian coast westward along 20 degrees south are compared during the period.
S. Remy and J. W. Kaiser
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13377–13390, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13377-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13377-2014, 2014
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This paper describes a method to correct the bias in daily fire radiative power (FRP) observations from any low Earth orbit satellite, so that that the budget of daily smoke emissions remains independent of the number of satellites from which FRP observations are taken into account. This ensures the possibility of running a system assimilating observations from several sensors, e.g. the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS), in case of failure of one of the MODIS instruments.
A. Agustí-Panareda, S. Massart, F. Chevallier, S. Boussetta, G. Balsamo, A. Beljaars, P. Ciais, N. M. Deutscher, R. Engelen, L. Jones, R. Kivi, J.-D. Paris, V.-H. Peuch, V. Sherlock, A. T. Vermeulen, P. O. Wennberg, and D. Wunch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11959–11983, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11959-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11959-2014, 2014
Short summary
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This paper presents a new operational CO2 forecast product as part of the Copernicus Atmospheric Services suite of atmospheric composition products, using the state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model from the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
The evaluation with independent observations shows that the forecast has skill in predicting the synoptic variability of CO2. The online simulation of CO2 fluxes from vegetation contributes to this skill.
P. Ricaud, B. Sič, L. El Amraoui, J.-L. Attié, R. Zbinden, P. Huszar, S. Szopa, J. Parmentier, N. Jaidan, M. Michou, R. Abida, F. Carminati, D. Hauglustaine, T. August, J. Warner, R. Imasu, N. Saitoh, and V.-H. Peuch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11427–11446, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11427-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11427-2014, 2014
K. Tsigaridis, N. Daskalakis, M. Kanakidou, P. J. Adams, P. Artaxo, R. Bahadur, Y. Balkanski, S. E. Bauer, N. Bellouin, A. Benedetti, T. Bergman, T. K. Berntsen, J. P. Beukes, H. Bian, K. S. Carslaw, M. Chin, G. Curci, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, S. L. Gong, A. Hodzic, C. R. Hoyle, T. Iversen, S. Jathar, J. L. Jimenez, J. W. Kaiser, A. Kirkevåg, D. Koch, H. Kokkola, Y. H Lee, G. Lin, X. Liu, G. Luo, X. Ma, G. W. Mann, N. Mihalopoulos, J.-J. Morcrette, J.-F. Müller, G. Myhre, S. Myriokefalitakis, N. L. Ng, D. O'Donnell, J. E. Penner, L. Pozzoli, K. J. Pringle, L. M. Russell, M. Schulz, J. Sciare, Ø. Seland, D. T. Shindell, S. Sillman, R. B. Skeie, D. Spracklen, T. Stavrakou, S. D. Steenrod, T. Takemura, P. Tiitta, S. Tilmes, H. Tost, T. van Noije, P. G. van Zyl, K. von Salzen, F. Yu, Z. Wang, Z. Wang, R. A. Zaveri, H. Zhang, K. Zhang, Q. Zhang, and X. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10845–10895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10845-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10845-2014, 2014
L. El Amraoui, J.-L. Attié, P. Ricaud, W. A. Lahoz, A. Piacentini, V.-H. Peuch, J. X. Warner, R. Abida, J. Barré, and R. Zbinden
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 3035–3057, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3035-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3035-2014, 2014
P. Ciais, A. J. Dolman, A. Bombelli, R. Duren, A. Peregon, P. J. Rayner, C. Miller, N. Gobron, G. Kinderman, G. Marland, N. Gruber, F. Chevallier, R. J. Andres, G. Balsamo, L. Bopp, F.-M. Bréon, G. Broquet, R. Dargaville, T. J. Battin, A. Borges, H. Bovensmann, M. Buchwitz, J. Butler, J. G. Canadell, R. B. Cook, R. DeFries, R. Engelen, K. R. Gurney, C. Heinze, M. Heimann, A. Held, M. Henry, B. Law, S. Luyssaert, J. Miller, T. Moriyama, C. Moulin, R. B. Myneni, C. Nussli, M. Obersteiner, D. Ojima, Y. Pan, J.-D. Paris, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, S. Plummer, S. Quegan, P. Raymond, M. Reichstein, L. Rivier, C. Sabine, D. Schimel, O. Tarasova, R. Valentini, R. Wang, G. van der Werf, D. Wickland, M. Williams, and C. Zehner
Biogeosciences, 11, 3547–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, 2014
R. E. L. West, P. Stier, A. Jones, C. E. Johnson, G. W. Mann, N. Bellouin, D. G. Partridge, and Z. Kipling
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6369–6393, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6369-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6369-2014, 2014
S. Massart, A. Agusti-Panareda, I. Aben, A. Butz, F. Chevallier, C. Crevoisier, R. Engelen, C. Frankenberg, and O. Hasekamp
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6139–6158, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6139-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6139-2014, 2014
M. Diamantakis and J. Flemming
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 965–979, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-965-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-965-2014, 2014
M. Ménégoz, G. Krinner, Y. Balkanski, O. Boucher, A. Cozic, S. Lim, P. Ginot, P. Laj, H. Gallée, P. Wagnon, A. Marinoni, and H. W. Jacobi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4237–4249, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4237-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4237-2014, 2014
V. Huijnen, J. E. Williams, and J. Flemming
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-8575-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-8575-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
P. Sellitto, G. Dufour, M. Eremenko, J. Cuesta, G. Forêt, B. Gaubert, M. Beekmann, V.-H. Peuch, and J.-M. Flaud
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 391–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-391-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-391-2014, 2014
V. Cesnulyte, A. V. Lindfors, M. R. A. Pitkänen, K. E. J. Lehtinen, J.-J. Morcrette, and A. Arola
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 593–608, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-593-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-593-2014, 2014
A. Baklanov, K. Schlünzen, P. Suppan, J. Baldasano, D. Brunner, S. Aksoyoglu, G. Carmichael, J. Douros, J. Flemming, R. Forkel, S. Galmarini, M. Gauss, G. Grell, M. Hirtl, S. Joffre, O. Jorba, E. Kaas, M. Kaasik, G. Kallos, X. Kong, U. Korsholm, A. Kurganskiy, J. Kushta, U. Lohmann, A. Mahura, A. Manders-Groot, A. Maurizi, N. Moussiopoulos, S. T. Rao, N. Savage, C. Seigneur, R. S. Sokhi, E. Solazzo, S. Solomos, B. Sørensen, G. Tsegas, E. Vignati, B. Vogel, and Y. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 317–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-317-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-317-2014, 2014
P. Huszar, H. Teyssèdre, M. Michou, A. Voldoire, D. J. L. Olivié, D. Saint-Martin, D. Cariolle, S. Senesi, D. Salas Y Melia, A. Alias, F. Karcher, P. Ricaud, and T. Halenka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10027–10048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10027-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10027-2013, 2013
M. Lefèvre, A. Oumbe, P. Blanc, B. Espinar, B. Gschwind, Z. Qu, L. Wald, M. Schroedter-Homscheidt, C. Hoyer-Klick, A. Arola, A. Benedetti, J. W. Kaiser, and J.-J. Morcrette
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 2403–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-2403-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-2403-2013, 2013
M. Mallet, O. Dubovik, P. Nabat, F. Dulac, R. Kahn, J. Sciare, D. Paronis, and J. F. Léon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9195–9210, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9195-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9195-2013, 2013
P. Sellitto, G. Dufour, M. Eremenko, J. Cuesta, V.-H. Peuch, A. Eldering, D. P. Edwards, and J.-M. Flaud
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 1869–1881, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-1869-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-1869-2013, 2013
N. Huneeus, O. Boucher, and F. Chevallier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6555–6573, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6555-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6555-2013, 2013
Z. Kipling, P. Stier, J. P. Schwarz, A. E. Perring, J. R. Spackman, G. W. Mann, C. E. Johnson, and P. J. Telford
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5969–5986, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5969-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5969-2013, 2013
P. Nabat, S. Somot, M. Mallet, I. Chiapello, J. J. Morcrette, F. Solmon, S. Szopa, F. Dulac, W. Collins, S. Ghan, L. W. Horowitz, J. F. Lamarque, Y. H. Lee, V. Naik, T. Nagashima, D. Shindell, and R. Skeie
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 1287–1314, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-1287-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-1287-2013, 2013
A. Inness, F. Baier, A. Benedetti, I. Bouarar, S. Chabrillat, H. Clark, C. Clerbaux, P. Coheur, R. J. Engelen, Q. Errera, J. Flemming, M. George, C. Granier, J. Hadji-Lazaro, V. Huijnen, D. Hurtmans, L. Jones, J. W. Kaiser, J. Kapsomenakis, K. Lefever, J. Leitão, M. Razinger, A. Richter, M. G. Schultz, A. J. Simmons, M. Suttie, O. Stein, J.-N. Thépaut, V. Thouret, M. Vrekoussis, C. Zerefos, and the MACC team
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4073–4109, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4073-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4073-2013, 2013
P. Stier, N. A. J. Schutgens, N. Bellouin, H. Bian, O. Boucher, M. Chin, S. Ghan, N. Huneeus, S. Kinne, G. Lin, X. Ma, G. Myhre, J. E. Penner, C. A. Randles, B. Samset, M. Schulz, T. Takemura, F. Yu, H. Yu, and C. Zhou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3245–3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3245-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3245-2013, 2013
M. T. Woodhouse, G. W. Mann, K. S. Carslaw, and O. Boucher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2723–2733, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2723-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2723-2013, 2013
P. Sellitto, G. Dufour, M. Eremenko, J. Cuesta, P. Dauphin, G. Forêt, B. Gaubert, M. Beekmann, V.-H. Peuch, and J.-M. Flaud
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 621–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-621-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-621-2013, 2013
N. Bellouin, J. Quaas, J.-J. Morcrette, and O. Boucher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2045–2062, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2045-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2045-2013, 2013
G. Lacressonnière, V.-H. Peuch, J. Arteta, B. Josse, M. Joly, V. Marécal, D. Saint Martin, M. Déqué, and L. Watson
Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 1565–1587, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1565-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1565-2012, 2012
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WRF-Comfort: simulating microscale variability in outdoor heat stress at the city scale with a mesoscale model
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Can TROPOMI NO2 satellite data be used to track the drop in and resurgence of NOx emissions in Germany between 2019–2021 using the multi-source plume method (MSPM)?
A spatiotemporally separated framework for reconstructing the sources of atmospheric radionuclide releases
A parameterization scheme for the floating wind farm in a coupled atmosphere–wave model (COAWST v3.7)
RoadSurf 1.1: open-source road weather model library
Calibrating and validating the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) urban cooling model: case studies in France and the United States
The ddeq Python library for point source quantification from remote sensing images (version 1.0)
Incorporating Oxygen Isotopes of Oxidized Reactive Nitrogen in the Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism, version 2 (ICOIN-RACM2)
A general comprehensive evaluation method for cross-scale precipitation forecasts
Implementation of a Simple Actuator Disk for Large-Eddy Simulation in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-SADLES v1.2) for wind turbine wake simulation
WRF-PDAF v1.0: implementation and application of an online localized ensemble data assimilation framework
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An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2_cool_fort-1.0)
Development of a multiphase chemical mechanism to improve secondary organic aerosol formation in CAABA/MECCA (version 4.7.0)
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Investigating ground-level ozone pollution in semi-arid and arid regions of Arizona using WRF-Chem v4.4 modeling
An objective identification technique for potential vorticity structures associated with African easterly waves
Importance of microphysical settings for climate forcing by stratospheric SO2 injections as modeled by SOCOL-AERv2
Assessment of surface ozone products from downscaled CAMS reanalysis and CAMS daily forecast using urban air quality monitoring stations in Iran
Open boundary conditions for atmospheric large-eddy simulations and their implementation in DALES4.4
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Alberto Martilli, Negin Nazarian, E. Scott Krayenhoff, Jacob Lachapelle, Jiachen Lu, Esther Rivas, Alejandro Rodriguez-Sanchez, Beatriz Sanchez, and José Luis Santiago
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5023–5039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5023-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5023-2024, 2024
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Here, we present a model that quantifies the thermal stress and its microscale variability at a city scale with a mesoscale model. This tool can have multiple applications, from early warnings of extreme heat to the vulnerable population to the evaluation of the effectiveness of heat mitigation strategies. It is the first model that includes information on microscale variability in a mesoscale model, something that is essential for fully evaluating heat stress.
Nathan P. Arnold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5041–5056, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5041-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5041-2024, 2024
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Earth system models often represent the land surface at smaller scales than the atmosphere, but surface–atmosphere coupling uses only aggregated surface properties. This study presents a method to allow heterogeneous surface properties to modify boundary layer updrafts. The method is tested in single column experiments. Updraft properties are found to reasonably covary with surface conditions, and simulated boundary layer variability is enhanced over more heterogeneous land surfaces.
Enrico Dammers, Janot Tokaya, Christian Mielke, Kevin Hausmann, Debora Griffin, Chris McLinden, Henk Eskes, and Renske Timmermans
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4983–5007, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4983-2024, 2024
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Nitrogen dioxide (NOx) is produced by sources such as industry and traffic and is directly linked to negative impacts on health and the environment. The current construction of emission inventories to keep track of NOx emissions is slow and time-consuming. Satellite measurements provide a way to quickly and independently estimate emissions. In this study, we apply a consistent methodology to derive NOx emissions over Germany and illustrate the value of having such a method for fast projections.
Yuhan Xu, Sheng Fang, Xinwen Dong, and Shuhan Zhuang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4961–4982, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4961-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4961-2024, 2024
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Recent atmospheric radionuclide leakages from unknown sources have posed a new challenge in nuclear emergency assessment. Reconstruction via environmental observations is the only feasible way to identify sources, but simultaneous reconstruction of the source location and release rate yields high uncertainties. We propose a spatiotemporally separated reconstruction strategy that avoids these uncertainties and outperforms state-of-the-art methods with respect to accuracy and uncertainty ranges.
Shaokun Deng, Shengmu Yang, Shengli Chen, Daoyi Chen, Xuefeng Yang, and Shanshan Cui
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4891–4909, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4891-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4891-2024, 2024
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Global offshore wind power development is moving from offshore to deeper waters, where floating offshore wind turbines have an advantage over bottom-fixed turbines. However, current wind farm parameterization schemes in mesoscale models are not applicable to floating turbines. We propose a floating wind farm parameterization scheme that accounts for the attenuation of the significant wave height by floating turbines. The results indicate that it has a significant effect on the power output.
Virve Eveliina Karsisto
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4837–4853, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4837-2024, 2024
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RoadSurf is an open-source library that contains functions from the Finnish Meteorological Institute’s road weather model. The evaluation of the library shows that it is well suited for making road surface temperature forecasts. The evaluation was done by making forecasts for about 400 road weather stations in Finland with the library. Accurate forecasts help road authorities perform salting and plowing operations at the right time and keep roads safe for drivers.
Perrine Hamel, Martí Bosch, Léa Tardieu, Aude Lemonsu, Cécile de Munck, Chris Nootenboom, Vincent Viguié, Eric Lonsdorf, James A. Douglass, and Richard P. Sharp
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4755–4771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4755-2024, 2024
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The InVEST Urban Cooling model estimates the cooling effect of vegetation in cities. We further developed an algorithm to facilitate model calibration and evaluation. Applying the algorithm to case studies in France and in the United States, we found that nighttime air temperature estimates compare well with reference datasets. Estimated change in temperature from a land cover scenario compares well with an alternative model estimate, supporting the use of the model for urban planning decisions.
Gerrit Kuhlmann, Erik Koene, Sandro Meier, Diego Santaren, Grégoire Broquet, Frédéric Chevallier, Janne Hakkarainen, Janne Nurmela, Laia Amorós, Johanna Tamminen, and Dominik Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4773–4789, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4773-2024, 2024
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We present a Python software library for data-driven emission quantification (ddeq). It can be used to determine the emissions of hot spots (cities, power plants and industry) from remote sensing images using different methods. ddeq can be extended for new datasets and methods, providing a powerful community tool for users and developers. The application of the methods is shown using Jupyter notebooks included in the library.
Wendell W. Walters, Masayuki Takeuchi, Nga L. Ng, and Meredith G. Hastings
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4673–4687, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4673-2024, 2024
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The study introduces a novel chemical mechanism for explicitly tracking oxygen isotope transfer in oxidized reactive nitrogen and odd oxygen using the Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism, version 2. This model enhances our ability to simulate and compare oxygen isotope compositions of reactive nitrogen, revealing insights into oxidation chemistry. The approach shows promise for improving atmospheric chemistry models and tropospheric oxidation capacity predictions.
Bing Zhang, Mingjian Zeng, Anning Huang, Zhengkun Qin, Couhua Liu, Wenru Shi, Xin Li, Kefeng Zhu, Chunlei Gu, and Jialing Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4579–4601, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4579-2024, 2024
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By directly analyzing the proximity of precipitation forecasts and observations, a precipitation accuracy score (PAS) method was constructed. This method does not utilize a traditional contingency-table-based classification verification; however, it can replace the threat score (TS), equitable threat score (ETS), and other skill score methods, and it can be used to calculate the accuracy of numerical models or quantitative precipitation forecasts.
Hai Bui, Mostafa Bakhoday-Paskyabi, and Mohammadreza Mohammadpour-Penchah
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4447–4465, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4447-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4447-2024, 2024
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We developed a new wind turbine wake model, the Simple Actuator Disc for Large Eddy Simulation (SADLES), integrated with the widely used Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF-SADLES accurately simulates wind turbine wakes at resolutions of a few dozen meters, aligning well with idealized simulations and observational measurements. This makes WRF-SADLES a promising tool for wind energy research, offering a balance between accuracy, computational efficiency, and ease of implementation.
Changliang Shao and Lars Nerger
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4433–4445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4433-2024, 2024
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This paper introduces and evaluates WRF-PDAF, a fully online-coupled ensemble data assimilation (DA) system. A key advantage of the WRF-PDAF configuration is its ability to concurrently integrate all ensemble states, eliminating the need for time-consuming distribution and collection of ensembles during the coupling communication. The extra time required for DA amounts to only 20.6 % per cycle. Twin experiment results underscore the effectiveness of the WRF-PDAF system.
Jan Clemens, Lars Hoffmann, Bärbel Vogel, Sabine Grießbach, and Nicole Thomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4467–4493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4467-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4467-2024, 2024
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Lagrangian transport models simulate the transport of air masses in the atmosphere. For example, one model (CLaMS) is well suited to calculating transport as it uses a special coordinate system and special vertical wind. However, it only runs inefficiently on modern supercomputers. Hence, we have implemented the benefits of CLaMS into a new model (MPTRAC), which is already highly efficient on modern supercomputers. Finally, in extensive tests, we showed that CLaMS and MPTRAC agree very well.
Manuel López-Puertas, Federico Fabiano, Victor Fomichev, Bernd Funke, and Daniel R. Marsh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4401–4432, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024, 2024
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The radiative infrared cooling of CO2 in the middle atmosphere is crucial for computing its thermal structure. It requires one however to include non-local thermodynamic equilibrium processes which are computationally very expensive, which cannot be afforded by climate models. In this work, we present an updated, efficient, accurate and very fast (~50 µs) parameterization of that cooling able to cope with CO2 abundances from half the pre-industrial values to 10 times the current abundance.
Felix Wieser, Rolf Sander, Changmin Cho, Hendrik Fuchs, Thorsten Hohaus, Anna Novelli, Ralf Tillmann, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4311–4330, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4311-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4311-2024, 2024
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The chemistry scheme of the atmospheric box model CAABA/MECCA is expanded to achieve an improved aerosol formation from emitted organic compounds. In addition to newly added reactions, temperature-dependent partitioning of all new species between the gas and aqueous phases is estimated and included in the pre-existing scheme. Sensitivity runs show an overestimation of key compounds from isoprene, which can be explained by a lack of aqueous-phase degradation reactions and box model limitations.
Zehua Bai, Qizhong Wu, Kai Cao, Yiming Sun, and Huaqiong Cheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4383–4399, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4383-2024, 2024
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There is relatively limited research on the application of scientific computing on RISC CPU platforms. The MIPS architecture CPUs, a type of RISC CPUs, have distinct advantages in energy efficiency and scalability. The air quality modeling system can run stably on the MIPS and LoongArch platforms, and the experiment results verify the stability of scientific computing on the platforms. The work provides a technical foundation for the scientific application based on MIPS and LoongArch.
Yafang Guo, Chayan Roychoudhury, Mohammad Amin Mirrezaei, Rajesh Kumar, Armin Sorooshian, and Avelino F. Arellano
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4331–4353, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4331-2024, 2024
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This research focuses on surface ozone (O3) pollution in Arizona, a historically air-quality-challenged arid and semi-arid region in the US. The unique characteristics of this kind of region, e.g., intense heat, minimal moisture, and persistent desert shrubs, play a vital role in comprehending O3 exceedances. Using the WRF-Chem model, we analyzed O3 levels in the pre-monsoon month, revealing the model's skill in capturing diurnal and MDA8 O3 levels.
Christoph Fischer, Andreas H. Fink, Elmar Schömer, Marc Rautenhaus, and Michael Riemer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4213–4228, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4213-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4213-2024, 2024
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This study presents a method for identifying and tracking 3-D potential vorticity structures within African easterly waves (AEWs). Each identified structure is characterized by descriptors, including its 3-D position and orientation, which have been validated through composite comparisons. A trough-centric perspective on the descriptors reveals the evolution and distinct characteristics of AEWs. These descriptors serve as valuable statistical inputs for the study of AEW-related phenomena.
Sandro Vattioni, Andrea Stenke, Beiping Luo, Gabriel Chiodo, Timofei Sukhodolov, Elia Wunderlin, and Thomas Peter
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4181–4197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4181-2024, 2024
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We investigate the sensitivity of aerosol size distributions in the presence of strong SO2 injections for climate interventions or after volcanic eruptions to the call sequence and frequency of the routines for nucleation and condensation in sectional aerosol models with operator splitting. Using the aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv2, we show that the radiative and chemical outputs are sensitive to these settings at high H2SO4 supersaturations and how to obtain reliable results.
Najmeh Kaffashzadeh and Abbas-Ali Aliakbari Bidokhti
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4155–4179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4155-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4155-2024, 2024
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This paper assesses the capability of two state-of-the-art global datasets in simulating surface ozone over Iran using a new methodology. It is found that the global model data need to be downscaled for regulatory purposes or policy applications at local scales. The method can be useful not only for the evaluation but also for the prediction of other chemical species, such as aerosols.
Franciscus Liqui Lung, Christian Jakob, A. Pier Siebesma, and Fredrik Jansson
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4053–4076, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4053-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4053-2024, 2024
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Traditionally, high-resolution atmospheric models employ periodic boundary conditions, which limit simulations to domains without horizontal variations. In this research open boundary conditions are developed to replace the periodic boundary conditions. The implementation is tested in a controlled setup, and the results show minimal disturbances. Using these boundary conditions, high-resolution models can be forced by a coarser model to study atmospheric phenomena in realistic background states.
Caroline Arnold, Shivani Sharma, Tobias Weigel, and David S. Greenberg
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4017–4029, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4017-2024, 2024
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In atmospheric models, rain formation is simplified to be computationally efficient. We trained a machine learning model, SuperdropNet, to emulate warm-rain formation based on super-droplet simulations. Here, we couple SuperdropNet with an atmospheric model in a warm-bubble experiment and find that the coupled simulation runs stable and produces reasonable results, making SuperdropNet a viable ML proxy for droplet simulations. We also present a comprehensive benchmark for coupling architectures.
Byoung-Joo Jung, Benjamin Ménétrier, Chris Snyder, Zhiquan Liu, Jonathan J. Guerrette, Junmei Ban, Ivette Hernández Baños, Yonggang G. Yu, and William C. Skamarock
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3879–3895, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3879-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3879-2024, 2024
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We describe the multivariate static background error covariance (B) for the JEDI-MPAS 3D-Var data assimilation system. With tuned B parameters, the multivariate B gives physically balanced analysis increment fields in the single-observation test framework. In the month-long cycling experiment with a global 60 km mesh, 3D-Var with static B performs stably. Due to its simple workflow and minimal computational requirements, JEDI-MPAS 3D-Var can be useful for the research community.
Michal Belda, Nina Benešová, Jaroslav Resler, Peter Huszár, Ondřej Vlček, Pavel Krč, Jan Karlický, Pavel Juruš, and Kryštof Eben
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3867–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3867-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3867-2024, 2024
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For modeling atmospheric chemistry, it is necessary to provide data on emissions of pollutants. These can come from various sources and in various forms, and preprocessing of the data to be ingestible by chemistry models can be quite challenging. We developed the FUME processor to use a database layer that internally transforms all input data into a rigid structure, facilitating further processing to allow for emission processing from the continental to the street scale.
Bent Harnist, Seppo Pulkkinen, and Terhi Mäkinen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3839–3866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3839-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3839-2024, 2024
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Probabilistic precipitation nowcasting (local forecasting for 0–6 h) is crucial for reducing damage from events like flash floods. For this goal, we propose the DEUCE neural-network-based model which uses data and model uncertainties to generate an ensemble of potential precipitation development scenarios for the next hour. Trained and evaluated with Finnish precipitation composites, DEUCE was found to produce more skillful and reliable nowcasts than established models.
Emma Howard, Steven Woolnough, Nicholas Klingaman, Daniel Shipley, Claudio Sanchez, Simon C. Peatman, Cathryn E. Birch, and Adrian J. Matthews
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3815–3837, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3815-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3815-2024, 2024
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This paper describes a coupled atmosphere–mixed-layer ocean simulation setup that will be used to study weather processes in Southeast Asia. The set-up has been used to compare high-resolution simulations, which are able to partially resolve storms, to coarser simulations, which cannot. We compare the model performance at representing variability of rainfall and sea surface temperatures across length scales between the coarse and fine models.
Andrés Yarce Botero, Michiel van Weele, Arjo Segers, Pier Siebesma, and Henk Eskes
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3765–3781, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3765-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3765-2024, 2024
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HARMONIE WINS50 reanalysis data with 0.025° × 0.025° resolution from 2019 to 2021 were coupled with the LOTOS-EUROS Chemical Transport Model. HARMONIE and ECMWF meteorology configurations against Cabauw observations (52.0° N, 4.9° W) were evaluated as simulated NO2 concentrations with ground-level sensors. Differences in crucial meteorological input parameters (boundary layer height, vertical diffusion coefficient) between the hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic models were analysed.
Ulrich Voggenberger, Leopold Haimberger, Federico Ambrogi, and Paul Poli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3783–3799, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3783-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3783-2024, 2024
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This paper presents a method for calculating balloon drift from historical radiosonde ascent data. The drift can reach distances of several hundred kilometres and is often neglected. Verification shows the beneficial impact of the more accurate balloon position on model assimilation. The method is not limited to radiosondes but would also work for dropsondes, ozonesondes, or any other in situ sonde carried by the wind in the pre-GNSS era, provided the necessary information is available.
Philippe Thunis, Jeroen Kuenen, Enrico Pisoni, Bertrand Bessagnet, Manjola Banja, Lech Gawuc, Karol Szymankiewicz, Diego Guizardi, Monica Crippa, Susana Lopez-Aparicio, Marc Guevara, Alexander De Meij, Sabine Schindlbacher, and Alain Clappier
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3631–3643, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3631-2024, 2024
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An ensemble emission inventory is created with the aim of monitoring the status and progress made with the development of EU-wide inventories. This emission ensemble serves as a common benchmark for the screening and allows for the comparison of more than two inventories at a time. Because the emission “truth” is unknown, the approach does not tell which inventory is the closest to reality, but it identifies inconsistencies that require special attention.
Laurent Menut, Bertrand Bessagnet, Arineh Cholakian, Guillaume Siour, Sylvain Mailler, and Romain Pennel
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3645–3665, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3645-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3645-2024, 2024
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This study is about the modelling of the atmospheric composition in Europe during the summer of 2022, when massive wildfires were observed. It is a sensitivity study dedicated to the relative impacts of two modelling processes that are able to modify the meteorology used for the calculation of the atmospheric chemistry and transport of pollutants.
Shuai Wang, Mengyuan Zhang, Yueqi Gao, Peng Wang, Qingyan Fu, and Hongliang Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3617–3629, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3617-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3617-2024, 2024
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Numerical models are widely used in air pollution modeling but suffer from significant biases. The machine learning model designed in this study shows high efficiency in identifying such biases. Meteorology (relative humidity and cloud cover), chemical composition (secondary organic components and dust aerosols), and emission sources (residential activities) are diagnosed as the main drivers of bias in modeling PM2.5, a typical air pollutant. The results will help to improve numerical models.
Shoma Yamanouchi, Shayamilla Mahagammulla Gamage, Sara Torbatian, Jad Zalzal, Laura Minet, Audrey Smargiassi, Ying Liu, Ling Liu, Forood Azargoshasbi, Jinwoong Kim, Youngseob Kim, Daniel Yazgi, and Marianne Hatzopoulou
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3579–3597, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3579-2024, 2024
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Air pollution is a major health hazard, and chemical transport models (CTMs) are valuable tools that aid in our understanding of the risks of air pollution at both local and regional scales. In this study, the Polair3D CTM of the Polyphemus air quality modeling platform was set up over Quebec, Canada, to assess the model’s capability in predicting key air pollutant species over the region, at seasonal temporal scales and at regional spatial scales.
Rohith Thundathil, Florian Zus, Galina Dick, and Jens Wickert
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3599–3616, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3599-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3599-2024, 2024
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Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) provides moisture observations through its densely distributed ground station network. In this research, we assimilate a new type of observation called tropospheric gradient observations, which has never been incorporated into a weather model. We develop a forward operator for gradient-based observations and conduct an assimilation impact study. The study shows significant improvements in the model's humidity fields.
Ankur Mahesh, Travis A. O'Brien, Burlen Loring, Abdelrahman Elbashandy, William Boos, and William D. Collins
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3533–3557, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3533-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are extreme weather events that can alleviate drought or cause billions of US dollars in flood damage. We train convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to detect ARs with an estimate of the uncertainty. We present a framework to generalize these CNNs to a variety of datasets of past, present, and future climate. Using a simplified simulation of the Earth's atmosphere, we validate the CNNs. We explore the role of ARs in maintaining energy balance in the Earth system.
Alexandra Rivera, Kostas Tsigaridis, Gregory Faluvegi, and Drew Shindell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3487–3505, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3487-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3487-2024, 2024
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This paper describes and evaluates an improvement to the representation of acetone in the GISS ModelE2.1 Earth system model. We simulate acetone's concentration and transport across the atmosphere as well as its dependence on chemistry, the ocean, and various global emissions. Comparisons of our model’s estimates to past modeling studies and field measurements have shown encouraging results. Ultimately, this paper contributes to a broader understanding of acetone's role in the atmosphere.
Alok K. Samantaray, Priscilla A. Mooney, and Carla A. Vivacqua
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3321–3339, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3321-2024, 2024
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Any interpretation of climate model data requires a comprehensive evaluation of the model performance. Numerous error metrics exist for this purpose, and each focuses on a specific aspect of the relationship between reference and model data. Thus, a comprehensive evaluation demands the use of multiple error metrics. However, this can lead to confusion. We propose a clustering technique to reduce the number of error metrics needed and a composite error metric to simplify the interpretation.
Richard Maier, Fabian Jakub, Claudia Emde, Mihail Manev, Aiko Voigt, and Bernhard Mayer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3357–3383, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3357-2024, 2024
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Based on the TenStream solver, we present a new method to accelerate 3D radiative transfer towards the speed of currently used 1D solvers. Using a shallow-cumulus-cloud time series, we evaluate the performance of this new solver in terms of both speed and accuracy. Compared to a 3D benchmark simulation, we show that our new solver is able to determine much more accurate irradiances and heating rates than a 1D δ-Eddington solver, even when operated with a similar computational demand.
Julia Maillard, Jean-Christophe Raut, and François Ravetta
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3303–3320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3303-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric models struggle to reproduce the strong temperature inversions in the vicinity of the surface over forested areas in the Arctic winter. In this paper, we develop modified simplified versions of surface layer schemes widely used by the community. Our modifications are used to correct the fact that original schemes place strong limits on the turbulent collapse, leading to a lower surface temperature gradient at low wind speeds. Modified versions show a better performance.
Jana Fischereit, Henrik Vedel, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Natalie E. Theeuwes, Gregor Giebel, and Eigil Kaas
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2855–2875, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2855-2024, 2024
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Wind farms impact local wind and turbulence. To incorporate these effects in weather forecasting, the explicit wake parameterization (EWP) is added to the forecasting model HARMONIE–AROME. We evaluate EWP using flight data above and downstream of wind farms, comparing it with an alternative wind farm parameterization and another weather model. Results affirm the correct implementation of EWP, emphasizing the necessity of accounting for wind farm effects in accurate weather forecasting.
Clément Bouvier, Daan van den Broek, Madeleine Ekblom, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2961–2986, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2961-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2961-2024, 2024
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An analytical initial background state has been developed for moist baroclinic wave simulation on an aquaplanet and implemented into OpenIFS. Seven parameters can be controlled, which are used to generate the background states and the development of baroclinic waves. The meteorological and numerical stability has been assessed. Resulting baroclinic waves have proven to be realistic and sensitive to the jet's width.
Jelena Radović, Michal Belda, Jaroslav Resler, Kryštof Eben, Martin Bureš, Jan Geletič, Pavel Krč, Hynek Řezníček, and Vladimír Fuka
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2901–2927, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2901-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2901-2024, 2024
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Boundary conditions are of crucial importance for numerical model (e.g., PALM) validation studies and have a large influence on the model results, especially when studying the atmosphere of real, complex, and densely built urban environments. Our experiments with different driving conditions for the large-eddy simulation model PALM show its strong dependency on boundary conditions, which is important for the proper separation of errors coming from the boundary conditions and the model itself.
Sonya L. Fiddes, Marc D. Mallet, Alain Protat, Matthew T. Woodhouse, Simon P. Alexander, and Kalli Furtado
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2641–2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2641-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2641-2024, 2024
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In this study we present an evaluation that considers complex, non-linear systems in a holistic manner. This study uses XGBoost, a machine learning algorithm, to predict the simulated Southern Ocean shortwave radiation bias in the ACCESS model using cloud property biases as predictors. We then used a novel feature importance analysis to quantify the role that each cloud bias plays in predicting the radiative bias, laying the foundation for advanced Earth system model evaluation and development.
Gaurav Govardhan, Sachin D. Ghude, Rajesh Kumar, Sumit Sharma, Preeti Gunwani, Chinmay Jena, Prafull Yadav, Shubhangi Ingle, Sreyashi Debnath, Pooja Pawar, Prodip Acharja, Rajmal Jat, Gayatry Kalita, Rupal Ambulkar, Santosh Kulkarni, Akshara Kaginalkar, Vijay K. Soni, Ravi S. Nanjundiah, and Madhavan Rajeevan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2617–2640, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2617-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2617-2024, 2024
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A newly developed air quality forecasting framework, Decision Support System (DSS), for air quality management in Delhi, India, provides source attribution with numerous emission reduction scenarios besides forecasts. DSS shows that during post-monsoon and winter seasons, Delhi and its neighboring districts contribute to 30 %–40 % each to pollution in Delhi. On average, a 40 % reduction in the emissions in Delhi and the surrounding districts would result in a 24 % reduction in Delhi's pollution.
Simon Rosanka, Holger Tost, Rolf Sander, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2597–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2597-2024, 2024
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The capabilities of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) are extended to account for non-equilibrium aqueous-phase chemistry in the representation of deliquescent aerosols. When applying the new development in a global simulation, we find that MESSy's bias in modelling routinely observed reduced inorganic aerosol mass concentrations, especially in the United States. Furthermore, the representation of fine-aerosol pH is particularly improved in the marine boundary layer.
Junyu Li, Yuxin Wang, Lilong Liu, Yibin Yao, Liangke Huang, and Feijuan Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2569–2581, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2569-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2569-2024, 2024
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In this study, we have developed a model (RF-PWV) to characterize precipitable water vapor (PWV) variation with altitude in the study area. RF-PWV can significantly reduce errors in vertical correction, enhance PWV fusion product accuracy, and provide insights into PWV vertical distribution, thereby contributing to climate research.
Rolf Sander
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2419–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2419-2024, 2024
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The open-source software MEXPLORER 1.0.0 is presented here. The program can be used to analyze, reduce, and visualize complex chemical reaction mechanisms. The mathematics behind the tool is based on graph theory: chemical species are represented as vertices, and reactions as edges. MEXPLORER is a community model published under the GNU General Public License.
Hossain Mohammed Syedul Hoque, Kengo Sudo, Hitoshi Irie, Yanfeng He, and Md Firoz Khan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.169903618.82717612/v2, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.169903618.82717612/v2, 2024
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Using multi-platform observations, we validated global formaldehyde (HCHO) simulations from a chemistry transport model. HCHO is a crucial intermediate of the chemical catalytic cycle that governs the ozone formation in the troposphere. The model was capable of replicating the observed spatiotemporal variability in HCHO. In a few cases, the model capability was limited. This is attributed to the uncertainties in the observations and the model parameters.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2347–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, 2024
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In the last decades, weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future has been dominated by physics-based numerical models. Recently, deep learning models have challenged this paradigm. However, the latter models may struggle when forecasting weather extremes. In this article, we argue for deep learning models specifically designed to handle extreme events, and we propose a foundational framework to develop such models.
Stefan Rahimi, Lei Huang, Jesse Norris, Alex Hall, Naomi Goldenson, Will Krantz, Benjamin Bass, Chad Thackeray, Henry Lin, Di Chen, Eli Dennis, Ethan Collins, Zachary J. Lebo, Emily Slinskey, Sara Graves, Surabhi Biyani, Bowen Wang, Stephen Cropper, and the UCLA Center for Climate Science Team
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2265–2286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2265-2024, 2024
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Here, we project future climate across the western United States through the end of the 21st century using a regional climate model, embedded within 16 latest-generation global climate models, to provide the community with a high-resolution physically based ensemble of climate data for use at local scales. Strengths and weaknesses of the data are frankly discussed as we overview the downscaled dataset.
Romain Pilon and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2247–2264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2247-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2247-2024, 2024
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This paper introduces a new method for detecting atmospheric cloud bands to identify long convective cloud bands that extend from the tropics to the midlatitudes. The algorithm allows for easy use and enables researchers to study the life cycle and climatology of cloud bands and associated rainfall. This method provides insights into the large-scale processes involved in cloud band formation and their connections between different regions, as well as differences across ocean basins.
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Short summary
This article describes the IFS-AER aerosol module used operationally in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) cycle 45R1, operated by the ECMWF in the framework of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Services (CAMS). We describe the different parameterizations for aerosol sources, sinks, and how the aerosols are integrated in the larger atmospheric composition forecasting system. The skill of PM and AOD simulations against observations is improved compared to the older cycle 40R2.
This article describes the IFS-AER aerosol module used operationally in the Integrated...
